Czyz now in Rotation?

[dukelion]

Seems to me that our biggest issue next year is guard depth and overall athleticism.

I'm thinking the first sub off the bench might just be Olek for Smith or Scheyer. Olek plays the 3 with Singler moving over to the 2 with either Scheyer or Smith at the point.

Olek definitely gives us an elite athlete to help make up for Eliot's loss and if he is able to give us some solid minutes (say 15/game) the we'll have decent rotation at the guard spots.

I always thought Olek was a natural 3 and looks like now we'll be able to see what he can do.

[SupaDave]

Seems to me that our biggest issue next year is guard depth and overall athleticism.

I'm thinking the first sub off the bench might just be Olek for Smith or Scheyer. Olek plays the 3 with Singler moving over to the 2 with either Scheyer or Smith at the point.

Olek definitely gives us an elite athlete to help make up for Eliot's loss and if he is able to give us some solid minutes (say 15/game) the we'll have decent rotation at the guard spots.

I always thought Olek was a natural 3 and looks like now we'll be able to see what he can do.

There's a higher probability that Singler plays the three and Olek comes in at the four spot. Or that in reverse...

[CDu]

There's a higher probability that Singler plays the three and Olek comes in at the four spot. Or that in reverse...

Well, Singler is playing the 3 regardless. There really isn't a reasonable alternative there. The question is who moves to the 2 spot when either Smith or Scheyer is not in the game. SOMEBODY is going to have to play the 2 in that scenario, unless you assume Scheyer and Smith will just never leave the game.

That said, I definitely don't think Czyz will be the first guy off the bench (nor do I see him playing the 2). I think the most realistic scenario, given the players we have now, is that Singler will be forced to move to the 2 whenever Scheyer or Smith isn't in the game. That will be something like 15 minutes per game. In that case, whoever comes in will bump players down accordingly.

For example, if Thomas starts, he'd start at the 4. If Kelly or one of the Plumlees is the first guy off the bench, he'd bump Thomas to the 3 and Singler to the 2. If Thomas doesn't start, he'd come in at the 3 and move Singler to the 2.

Basically, Singler will now wind up playing 10-15 minutes at the 2 spot and the rest of his minutes at the 3 spot. So Thomas and maybe Czyz would get the rest of the minutes at the 3 spot (something like 15-20 minutes). So we'd have a lot of guys playing substantive minutes out of position, but those are the cards we've been dealt.

[mr. synellinden]

When are people going to stop talking about who is playing the 3 spot? Or the 4? Or the 5? Duke doesn't and never has under Coach K played with rigid positions like that. Coach K usually starts his 5 best players regardless of size and position -- with the obvious exception of needing someone to run the point. But as evidenced this year, the person playing pt. guard could be a guy like Jon Scheyer or a guy like Grant Hill - not a typical "1". We have played with guys like Dave McClure and Kyle Singler and Robert Brickey and John Smith and Shane Battier and Reggie Love defending the opposing team's best post player. Were they 5's or 4's or what? The point is, losing Williams means we are losing one of our best 5 players and everyone will move up one slot in terms of starting/playing time. I suspect our starting lineup next year will probably be:

Mason Plumlee
Thomas
Singler
Smith
Scheyer

-- and that's a pretty talented starting 5; and our bench players will probably be:

Miles Plumlee
Zoubek
Kelly
Czyz

Who knows? Zoubek might start some games. So might Miles or Kelly depending on how they develop over the summer. With those 9 guys and Curry, we will have a lot of talent at practices. And in games, Coach K is going to play the 5 best players to start games and the 5 best (could be the same 5 or different 5 depending upon matchups and game situations) to end games. But I don't think he is worrying about who is going to play the 4 or if Kyle is going to spend time at the 2/3 blah blah blah ...

[jaimedun34]

I don't know if I would consider Czyz "in the rotation". Before the recent bad news, I expected blowout minutes for Czyz with a lot of DNP-CD's.

Now I kind of see Czyz like I saw Patrick Johnson in 2005. Johnson was like 6'9/6'10" ish and we were thin in the frontcourt. He played in 22 of our 33 games and averaged 4 minutes. It wasn't a huge contribution but sometimes you just need to steal minutes for foul trouble, injury or just fatigue.

[ACCBBallFan]

Most important thing is that Elliott be closer to his family.

http://duke.scout.com/2/874700.html

It is what it is and now goal is for frosh to improve throughout the season by necessity, rather than use them sparingly until they get some whiskers.

From a basketball perspective, it gives the other 9 guys 25-30 more MPG to share, and no margin for fouls and injuries.

I don’t think you can magically anoint Kelly as a ball handler or as a perimeter defender in his freshman year, (ditto for inexperienced Soph Czyz) but rather must now consider the senior Lance Thomas as a Marcus Ginyard/Jackie Manuel/Dave McClure type defensive specialist instead and just not count on him for much offense even if nominally called the SF as he has nominally been called the center in past, a testament to his versatility and team orientation.

G F C Player(Individual-Team)
35 00 00 Scheyer (35-35)
15 20 00 Singler (35-70)
30 00 00 Smith (30-100)
00 25 00 Thomas (25-125)
00 20 00 Kelly (20-145)
00 10 10 Mason (20-165)
00 00 15 Zoubek (15-180)
00 00 15 Miles (15-195)
00 05 00 Czyz (05-200)
80 80 40 Duke (200)

Not the ideal but have to deal with the cards you are dealt sometimes, and still lots of tall talent, with Olek as insurance should anyone be unavailable due to fouls or injuries.

From a positional standpoint, try to get 120 minutes out of Scheyer, Singler, Smith and Thomas instead of Elliott, as close to 40 out of Zoubek/Miles and another 40 out of Mason/Kelly who are also bridging any post gap Zoubek/Miles cannot fill, and Olek a filler wherever he is most needed.

No way to sugar coat that Elliott would have been a valuable contributor and Duke now just has to react by playing even bigger, usually with lineups like

Scheyer 6’5”

Singler 6’ 9” whether as SG or SF

Smith 6’2” /Thomas 6’8” depending on size vs. ball handling

Mason 6’11”/Kelly 6’ 10” with only one major role to learn, and fill in at center, not SF

Zoubek 7’1” /Miles 6’10”

I know many will be tempted to go with both Nolan and Lance with Jon, Kyle and a Plumlee to be named later but I think you have to go with a basic identity with Scheyer running the offense, Singler the scorer, a big freshman forward and a super big center and then one very good defender with difference being size of Lance versus ball handling of Nolan, rather than defense being maximized and then taking a hit when subs come in.

[Bob Green]

When are people going to stop talking about who is playing the 3 spot? Or the 4? Or the 5?

Posters utilize the number system for convention. It allows everyone to discuss the situation from the same baseline and has absolutely nothing to do with how Coach K approaches the game.




Coach K is going to play the 5 best players to start games and the 5 best (could be the same 5 or different 5 depending upon matchups and game situations) to end games.

I believe everyone agrees with this position. Summertime discussion centers around identifying who those 5 best players are. IMO:

Scheyer
Smith
Singler
Mason Plumlee
Zoubek

will start with Lance Thomas filling the sixth man role due to his versatility to play on the wing or inside depending upon how the game develops over the first several minutes.

[CDu]

When are people going to stop talking about who is playing the 3 spot? Or the 4? Or the 5? Duke doesn't and never has under Coach K played with rigid positions like that. Coach K usually starts his 5 best players regardless of size and position -- with the obvious exception of needing someone to run the point. But as evidenced this year, the person playing pt. guard could be a guy like Jon Scheyer or a guy like Grant Hill - not a typical "1". We have played with guys like Dave McClure and Kyle Singler and Robert Brickey and John Smith and Shane Battier and Reggie Love defending the opposing team's best post player. Were they 5's or 4's or what? The point is, losing Williams means we are losing one of our best 5 players and everyone will move up one slot in terms of starting/playing time. I suspect our starting lineup next year will probably be:

Mason Plumlee
Thomas
Singler
Smith
Scheyer

-- and that's a pretty talented starting 5; and our bench players will probably be:

Miles Plumlee
Zoubek
Kelly
Czyz

Who knows? Zoubek might start some games. So might Miles or Kelly depending on how they develop over the summer. With those 9 guys and Curry, we will have a lot of talent at practices. And in games, Coach K is going to play the 5 best players to start games and the 5 best (could be the same 5 or different 5 depending upon matchups and game situations) to end games. But I don't think he is worrying about who is going to play the 4 or if Kyle is going to spend time at the 2/3 blah blah blah ...

The "Duke doesn't define positions" argument is a copout and isn't entirely accurate. Duke doesn't pigeonhole players into positions, but they do generally follow a rough range for positions. For example, Duke will never ask Zoubek to match up against the opposing team's SG (barring in-possession switches that can't be avoided).

Thus, people care about who plays the 2 and 3 because, while Duke does not specifically label positions, they DO have to defend by position. It absolutely matters who plays the 2 and 3 because we don't have enough able defenders at those spots to cover all 40 minutes.

Simply saying we'll put the best five people on the floor overlooks the distinct problem that we will frequently have multiple players on the floor who are going to be defensive liabilities due to playing out of position.

McClure et al could play out of position because they weren't defensive liabilities there. Thomas and Singler are very likely to be liabilities when guarding opposing shooting guards. But that's the unfortunate reality we're stuck with.

Hopefully Coach K can be creative enough to find a way to minimize those defensive liabilities and maximize our strengths. But there's a lot more going on here than simply saying we'll put our best five out there and don't worry about it.

[BlueintheFace]

Based on last year, a number of comments about Czyz still developing, and the talent ahead of him-- I predict Czyz is still last man off the bench.

[ACCBBallFan]

...

Thus, people care about who plays the 2 and 3 because, while Duke does not specifically label positions, they DO have to defend by position. It absolutely matters who plays the 2 and 3 because we don't have enough able defenders at those spots to cover all 40 minutes.

Simply saying we'll put the best five people on the floor overlooks the distinct problem that we will frequently have multiple players on the floor who are going to be defensive liabilities due to playing out of position.

McClure et al could play out of position because they weren't defensive liabilities there. Thomas and Singler are very likely to be liabilities when guarding opposing shooting guards. But that's the unfortunate reality we're stuck with.

Hopefully Coach K can be creative enough to find a way to minimize those defensive liabilities and maximize our strengths. But there's a lot more going on here than simply saying we'll put our best five out there and don't worry about it.
While I agree with your analysis, I am more optimistic that as a senior Lance can play a McClure/poor man's Jackie Manuel role much better now than when he was a freshman.

It always starts with perimeter defense with coach K (forget about the Zone much) and his best four are Nolan-Jon-Kyle-Lance.

So I see those four and those four almost exclusviely playing what by convention posters call the 1-2-3 which is why I think one and not both of Nolan/Lance start and the other is 6th man but again pretty much restricted to the 1-2-3 so that as a quad they consume 120 minutes and 5 other guys share the 80 minutes as the truly big men in terms of height/weight combo.

Though I would rather have Elliott, it actually solves a problem of Lance no longer being able to be an imposter as a big and the duty at PF now falls to two frosh and Olek and center is primarily Z/Miles with one of frosh the third center in an emergency due to fouls/injury.

It is not that Lance has anything resembling ball handling skills or outside shot, but that he can neutralize what the oponent has better than any of the other 5. and Duke can take its chances tht Kyle-Jon are better than the other guys' best two.

[CDu]

Based on last year, a number of comments about Czyz still developing, and the talent ahead of him-- I predict Czyz is still last man off the bench.

I agree with this prediction. I think we'll see either Thomas or Kelly (whoever doesn't start) sub in at the 3/4 when one of the guards or Singler needs a rest, and Zoubek/Plumlee/Plumlee/Kelly/Thomas will fill the 80 minutes in the post in some combination.

I think Czyz will be the 9th man on this team. And if Duke happens to find a guard of any substance in the next few months, Czyz will become the 10th man.

[CDu]

Though I would rather have Elliott, it actually solves a probelm of Lance no longer being able to be an imposter as a big and the duty at PF now falls to two frosh and Olek and center is primarily ZMiles with one of frosh the third center in an emergency due to fouls/injury.

I think Thomas would have been perfect for the 4 spot in college, but I'm not convinced he's ready to take on the McClure role. Had Williams stayed, I would have seen him playing exclusively at the 4, with Singler playing the 3 and 4 alternately. I agree though that Thomas will now play most of his time at the 3, though I'm less optimistic about that turn of events than you.

[jipops]

Based on last year, a number of comments about Czyz still developing, and the talent ahead of him-- I predict Czyz is still last man off the bench.

I concur. He's had his knee scoped in the offseason so recovery will prevent him from spending a lot of time working on his game. This is extremely valuable time for the development of a player. I see Olek as being a guy making an impact in practice this season, but I wouldn't bet on him seeing much playing time if any, especially if Kelly and the Plumlees are able to contribute.

[ACCBBallFan]

I agree with this prediction. I think we'll see either Thomas or Kelly (whoever doesn't start) sub in at the 3/4 when one of the guards or Singler needs a rest, and Zoubek/Plumlee/Plumlee/Kelly/Thomas will fill the 80 minutes in the post in some combination.

I think Czyz will be the 9th man on this team. And if Duke happens to find a guard of any substance in the next few months, Czyz will become the 10th man.
I am also more optimistic that Olek due to strong work ethic and athleticism will be 9th and not 10th in Duke rotation, if Jordan Davidson, a football player or a team manager or some other emergency fill in surfaces.

I currently only foresee Olek getting about 5 MPG but that is 5 more than a walk on without his athleticism and raw skill set would get other than in practice, unless fouls and injury force more PT for Olek.

It does accelerate his growth for final two years though.

Fortunately Seth will be there to be an ACC caliber practice palyer.

While losing Elliott as a teammate hurts Duke, it does open up some PT for guys like Olek, Miles and the two frosh when otherwise coach K may have continued to just grab the hook the first time they did something wrongly.

Someone besides Nolan-Jon-Lance-Kyle and Z has to play through their mistakes and grow, and coaching staff needs to be more patient and encouraging than ever.

[phaedrus]

SOMEBODY is going to have to play the 2 in that scenario, unless you assume Scheyer and Smith will just never leave the game.


I think we can assume that there will be more than a few games where Scheyer just never leaves. Smith doesn't have the same stamina (or durability) but he's definitely capable of playing 35+ minutes on any given night.

Obviously, the third 2-guard is exponentially more important when Scheyer or Smith is injured, sick, or in foul trouble. In the typical game, though, I don't see Scheyer or Smith off the floor much.

[CDu]

I think we can assume that there will be more than a few games where Scheyer just never leaves. Smith doesn't have the same stamina (or durability) but he's definitely capable of playing 35+ minutes on any given night.

Obviously, the third 2-guard is exponentially more important when Scheyer or Smith is injured, sick, or in foul trouble. In the typical game, though, I don't see Scheyer or Smith off the floor much.

That assumes no foul trouble and no injury. You can't be expected to play 40 minutes if you get two first half fouls, and Smith has been known to pick up fouls.

I agree that there will be games in which Scheyer plays 38+ minutes. There will also be games in which he gets in a bit of foul trouble and has to sit.

[Greg_Newton]

That assumes no foul trouble and no injury. You can't be expected to play 40 minutes if you get two first half fouls, and Smith has been known to pick up fouls.

I agree that there will be games in which Scheyer plays 38+ minutes. There will also be games in which he gets in a bit of foul trouble and has to sit.

You also can't really expect to play 35 or 40 minutes in 35 or 40 games and expect to stay healthy all year. Start stretchin' fellas, and tape those ankles...

[jimsumner]

"That assumes no foul trouble and no injury. You can't be expected to play 40 minutes if you get two first half fouls, and Smith has been known to pick up fouls."

This is my concern also. It's all well and good to talk about playing 40 mpg but what do you do when Scheyer and Smith both have two fouls with seven minutes left in the half? Leave them in and hope? Play a walk-on (s). Put Singler, or Kelly, or Thomas, or Czyz at guard? Try to sneak in Curry and hope that no one notices?

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

This is my concern also. It's all well and good to talk about playing 40 mpg but what do you do when Scheyer and Smith both have two fouls with seven minutes left in the half? Leave them in and hope? Play a walk-on (s). Put Singler, or Kelly, or Thomas, or Czyz at guard? Try to sneak in Curry and hope that no one notices?

Thanks Jim, that gave me a chuckle and my first sports-related smile in a few days. :)

Seriously, I am really interested in what the in-the-know posters think the plan will be. We're all aware that this is really bad but that K is a really, really good person to pull a rabbit out of a hat (lord knows he's done it before). Are we in "hope for the best" territory, or are there wrinkles (with personnel or strategy) that we've used in the past, etc. What are reasonable expectations for the season? We've had a lot of heat but not much light today and I'd love to hear your, Wat's, Jumbo's, etc thoughts on where we go from here.

[InSpades]

I'm certainly not in the now... (as far from it as you can be) but this is what I predict...

To start the season you'll see a bit of everything. You can't play Scheyer and Smith 40 minutes from game 1 (nor would you really want to if you could). You'll see time at guard from whatever other guard the team adds (Davidson or the manager guy). Maybe as many as 10 minutes. You'll also see Kyle at the 2 spot for a while. Something like... Scheyer for 30, Nolan for 30, Davidson for 10, Kyle for 10. This will leave a lot of time up front (100 minutes or so assuming Kyle plays 30) for Thomas, Zoubs, MP1, MP2 and Kelly. That's about 20 minutes each. Some get a few more, some get a few less, and Czyz gets a few.

When the real competition starts everything changes a bit. It will depend how things go up to this point but you'd imagine that Scheyer and Singler will play closer to 40 minutes in close games against tough competition. Nolan will go as long as he can go given conditioning and foul trouble. You could conceivably cut Davidson out of the rotation if you get 35/35/35 from those 3 players.

Meanwhile I think you will see a lot of Duke running a zone. Hopefully they start w/ it early because it is going to be inevitably necessary. You can't try to cover faster guys w/ bigger guys one-on-one on the perimeter (especially considering that you can't afford foul trouble). Obviously it goes against what Duke wants to do but I don't see any other way for Duke to play defense effectively. With a lot of size the zone could be quite effective. Hopefully Zoubs and MP2 can provide a constant shot blocking presence in the middle (one or the other).

On offense Duke will not be a running team. Fast break points will be few and far between. The only one who seems suited for a fast break offense is Nolan... it's just not gonna happen very often. Duke may have bigger issues on the offensive end than on the defensive end. They are going to have to develop an inside game which has been entirely absent the past few years. Nolan will need to play a big role in creating offense... Kyle will also have to play a big role here. Maybe a lot of pick and role w/ Kyle and Nolan/Jon? Once again Duke will rely heavily on the 3-point shot. They will also have to figure out a reliable way to deal w/ a press. Other teams are going to pressure Duke like Clemson did so successfully last year (when Duke was way more prepared to handle it).

Now that I look at it... I'm still excited about next year. It certainly doesn't hurt that Kyle, Jon and Nolan are 3 of my favorite players. With E-Will back I thought we were the favorites to win the ACC... now I think we're probably not quite there. No reason we can't finish in the top 3 in the ACC though. It's gonna be tough but if Duke is capable of emphasizing their advantages then I think they can still have a great year.

[Kedsy]

While I agree with your analysis, I am more optimistic that as a senior Lance can play a McClure/poor man's Jackie Manuel role much better now than when he was a freshman.


Who was the rich man's Jackie Manuel?

[Kedsy]

On offense Duke will not be a running team. Fast break points will be few and far between. The only one who seems suited for a fast break offense is Nolan... it's just not gonna happen very often. Duke may have bigger issues on the offensive end than on the defensive end. They are going to have to develop an inside game which has been entirely absent the past few years. Nolan will need to play a big role in creating offense... Kyle will also have to play a big role here. Maybe a lot of pick and role w/ Kyle and Nolan/Jon? Once again Duke will rely heavily on the 3-point shot. They will also have to figure out a reliable way to deal w/ a press. Other teams are going to pressure Duke like Clemson did so successfully last year (when Duke was way more prepared to handle it).


If Nolan can run/lead the break, we still have several people who can run the floor and fill the lanes (Kyle, Jon, MP1, MP2, Lance, Olek, and probably Kelly but I haven't seen him play so I don't know for sure). To say we will not be a running team because EWill is gone doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

In half court we will run a motion offense, which does not rely on the "traditional" PG. It's a set we have had success with in the past, although not in the past few years. K was planning on doing that even before EWill left.

[RelativeWays]

Coach K will need to throw the old playbook out the window, at least the one he's used this decade. This is going to be a very different team for him to coach, one that Herb Sendek or Bo Ryan might feel more at home coaching. This season is going to be very interesting.

[The1Bluedevil]

I believe this season more then any will be a true test of K showing or being willing to adapt his defense according to his roster. I can't recall a Duke roster screaming zone defense more then this one. It is unrealistic to think Duke will play extensive zone next year but I don't see what 10-15 minutes each game of zone could hurt? Heck run a little of Tony Bennett’s or Bo Ryan’s sagging man defense. Unless ACC officials overnight change to Big 11 officials and don't call arm bars and hand checks then I guess playing man won't be a problem.

[InSpades]

If Nolan can run/lead the break, we still have several people who can run the floor and fill the lanes (Kyle, Jon, MP1, MP2, Lance, Olek, and probably Kelly but I haven't seen him play so I don't know for sure). To say we will not be a running team because EWill is gone doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

In half court we will run a motion offense, which does not rely on the "traditional" PG. It's a set we have had success with in the past, although not in the past few years. K was planning on doing that even before EWill left.

We lost 2 of our best fast break finishers from last year. I'm not saying we won't ever run, it will just be very rare. Not just from a "can we do it" point of view but do we really want to get into a running game? I think we're going to be much more of a half-court team.

We will basically have 3 players who can handle the ball reliably on the perimeter. The offense will have to be vastly different than anything we've run the past few years.

[tommy]

Based on last year, a number of comments about Czyz still developing, and the talent ahead of him-- I predict Czyz is still last man off the bench.

I agree with you. It just kills me to see so many posters making assumptions about what guys can do who have NEVER shown the ability to play at the level Duke wants to play at. Czyz showed absolutely no ability to do that last year. Other posters make all these assumptions about what Kelly is/can do this year, what Mason Plumlee do, etc. It's just silly. Nobody has any idea what these guys are actually going to be capable of against legitimate college competition. Kelly has been described most often as skinny and not ready for the physicality of the high major college game. Mason Plumlee? Who knows? His brother wasn't ready as a freshman. Maybe Mason will be, but I'm certainly not counting on it.

The other thing about Olek is, I'm sure he's a nice guy and he appears to have some good athletic ability. But what on earth is Duke University doing continuing to recruit players who even as sophomores on teams that are woefully thin, are unlikely to be ready to earn playing time? In this day and age, real players play as freshmen and even decent ones play as sophs. This is 2009. If a guy can't play his first two years, what chance does he have to ever really be an impact player? Waste of a scholarship, and I just can't understand why we continue to do it.

[Kedsy]

The other thing about Olek is, I'm sure he's a nice guy and he appears to have some good athletic ability. But what on earth is Duke University doing continuing to recruit players who even as sophomores on teams that are woefully thin, are unlikely to be ready to earn playing time? In this day and age, real players play as freshmen and even decent ones play as sophs. This is 2009. If a guy can't play his first two years, what chance does he have to ever really be an impact player? Waste of a scholarship, and I just can't understand why we continue to do it.

I'm not saying it was you, but during the season a lot of posters were complaining that we never took risks on high-upside athletes who weren't highly regarded players coming out of high school. "How come we never recruit a DeJuan Blair or Tyrese Rice?" was the refrain. Well, that's who Olek is, and this type of player doesn't always develop in the first two years.

You can't have it both ways.

[tommy]

I'm not saying it was you, but during the season a lot of posters were complaining that we never took risks on high-upside athletes who weren't highly regarded players coming out of high school. "How come we never recruit a DeJuan Blair or Tyrese Rice?" was the refrain. Well, that's who Olek is, and this type of player doesn't always develop in the first two years.

You can't have it both ways.

I don't mind taking a risk on a high-upside athlete, but in my opinion we have recruited way too many of these boutique-type recruits in recent years, who most observers could tell the minute they saw them play for the first time that they were never going to be high level impact players, and for many of them it was obvious they would never be more than role guys, if that. I'm talking about guys like Zoubek, McClure, Boateng, Boykin, guys like that.

What I'm much more interested in is recruiting (and getting) real just straight-out ballers. J-Will was a flat out baller. So were, in no order at all, guys like Brand, Battier, Carrawell, Maggette, Laettner, Hurley, Grant Hill, Boozer, Duhon, and Redick. From the very beginning, there was not much doubt, and if so not for very long, that those guys had it and were going to be bringing it in a big way for us. When we were getting guys like that, we didn't have to worry about trying to mine for late blooming nuggets, much less consider putting walk-ons and team managers on the floor for crying out loud.

And by the way, DeJuan Blair averaged 11 pts and 9 boards as a freshman and 15 and 12 as a soph on a deep and balanced top-5 national contending team. Tyrese Rice averaged 9 as a freshman and 17 pts and 5 assists as a soph in the ACC. Sorry to say, but those guys were more ready to play as freshmen and sophs than I envision a guy like Olek ever being.

[ACCBBallFan]

I'm certainly not in the now... (as far from it as you can be) but this is what I predict...

To start the season you'll see a bit of everything. You can't play Scheyer and Smith 40 minutes from game 1 (nor would you really want to if you could). You'll see time at guard from whatever other guard the team adds (Davidson or the manager guy). Maybe as many as 10 minutes. You'll also see Kyle at the 2 spot for a while. Something like... Scheyer for 30, Nolan for 30, Davidson for 10, Kyle for 10. This will leave a lot of time up front (100 minutes or so assuming Kyle plays 30) for Thomas, Zoubs, MP1, MP2 and Kelly. That's about 20 minutes each. Some get a few more, some get a few less, and Czyz gets a few.

When the real competition starts everything changes a bit. It will depend how things go up to this point but you'd imagine that Scheyer and Singler will play closer to 40 minutes in close games against tough competition. Nolan will go as long as he can go given conditioning and foul trouble. You could conceivably cut Davidson out of the rotation if you get 35/35/35 from those 3 players.

Meanwhile I think you will see a lot of Duke running a zone. Hopefully they start w/ it early because it is going to be inevitably necessary. You can't try to cover faster guys w/ bigger guys one-on-one on the perimeter (especially considering that you can't afford foul trouble). Obviously it goes against what Duke wants to do but I don't see any other way for Duke to play defense effectively. With a lot of size the zone could be quite effective. Hopefully Zoubs and MP2 can provide a constant shot blocking presence in the middle (one or the other).

On offense Duke will not be a running team. Fast break points will be few and far between. The only one who seems suited for a fast break offense is Nolan... it's just not gonna happen very often. Duke may have bigger issues on the offensive end than on the defensive end. They are going to have to develop an inside game which has been entirely absent the past few years. Nolan will need to play a big role in creating offense... Kyle will also have to play a big role here. Maybe a lot of pick and role w/ Kyle and Nolan/Jon? Once again Duke will rely heavily on the 3-point shot. They will also have to figure out a reliable way to deal w/ a press. Other teams are going to pressure Duke like Clemson did so successfully last year (when Duke was way more prepared to handle it).

Now that I look at it... I'm still excited about next year. It certainly doesn't hurt that Kyle, Jon and Nolan are 3 of my favorite players. With E-Will back I thought we were the favorites to win the ACC... now I think we're probably not quite there. No reason we can't finish in the top 3 in the ACC though. It's gonna be tough but if Duke is capable of emphasizing their advantages then I think they can still have a great year. I also fit the mantra not in the know, and I agree with almost everything you said except the zone part.

Most anyody else with Duke's roster yes, but I expect the adjustment to be man to man with zone principles, kind of a sagging man to man since most proven 3 point shooters are no longer in ACC except for Scheyer, Singler, Delaney and less than an handful of others acorss the 12 teams.

I think Duke will be expecting more full court press and be better prepared than they were with Clemson who no longer has some key defenders either.

Other than Zoubek, most of Duke's bigs are decent ballhandlers and can beat the press with over the top passing more than dribbling. Could be a good tactic for other teams to wear down the three S's Scheyer, Singler and Smith though, but may also lead to some easy buckets and a faster pace than Duke would play with no guard depth.

People keep mentioning Jordan davidson but I thought that though in grad school he was not playing due to health reasons. I really doubt K would play him or a football recruit or team manager much anyway other than in practice with Curry so he could practice lineups with Smith-Scheyer-Singler all on same team.

I donlt see a real big imapct in games except when fouls/injury really mount, just Kyle being labeled a SG rather than SF which is not all that different in Duke scheme.

I especially agree Duke needs to play more inside out and Kyle having played some center knows the bigs' frustration with working hard to establish position only to not get the ball or not on time or in proper location.

Without G can no longer play the three players and two decoys that Nova coaches exposed, and losing Elliott due to family emergency only makes that more obvious.

[gep]

If Nolan can run/lead the break, we still have several people who can run the floor and fill the lanes (Kyle, Jon, MP1, MP2, Lance, Olek, and probably Kelly but I haven't seen him play so I don't know for sure). To say we will not be a running team because EWill is gone doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

I agree with this... but, with the total lack of depth at the guard position, I think limiting the running will pay off in the long run...

[MChambers]

Who was the rich man's Jackie Manuel?

Billy King

[El_Diablo]

Who was the rich man's Jackie Manuel?

Speedo Guy.

[whereinthehellami]

I don't mind taking a risk on a high-upside athlete, but in my opinion we have recruited way too many of these boutique-type recruits in recent years, who most observers could tell the minute they saw them play for the first time that they were never going to be high level impact players, and for many of them it was obvious they would never be more than role guys, if that. I'm talking about guys like Zoubek, McClure, Boateng, Boykin, guys like that.

What I'm much more interested in is recruiting (and getting) real just straight-out ballers. J-Will was a flat out baller. So were, in no order at all, guys like Brand, Battier, Carrawell, Maggette, Laettner, Hurley, Grant Hill, Boozer, Duhon, and Redick. From the very beginning, there was not much doubt, and if so not for very long, that those guys had it and were going to be bringing it in a big way for us. When we were getting guys like that, we didn't have to worry about trying to mine for late blooming nuggets, much less consider putting walk-ons and team managers on the floor for crying out loud.

And by the way, DeJuan Blair averaged 11 pts and 9 boards as a freshman and 15 and 12 as a soph on a deep and balanced top-5 national contending team. Tyrese Rice averaged 9 as a freshman and 17 pts and 5 assists as a soph in the ACC. Sorry to say, but those guys were more ready to play as freshmen and sophs than I envision a guy like Olek ever being.

You are all over the place in this post. There was nothing wrong with McClure except that he suffered some pretty serious injuries. And he still came back and was an impact player.

You have to keep in mind that Duke can't recruit all the athletes that you see in the various Top 100 lists. And then of the ones that Duke can recruit, Coach K still has alot of selective criteria he uses in his evaluations of who he offers a scholarship to

I saw another poster on another thread mention a JUCO player as a possible solution for Duke this year. For alot of schools this would be a perect option but I'm not sure how viable it is for Duke and Coach K. But it would give Duke an experienced, more physically mature guard that they could probably use effectively for some minutes this year.

[Kedsy]

I agree with this... but, with the total lack of depth at the guard position, I think limiting the running will pay off in the long run...

You may be right about that. I guess we may finally see proof one way or the other in the great "do more game minutes tire you out at the end of the year" debate.

[jimsumner]

"What I'm much more interested in is recruiting (and getting) real just straight-out ballers. J-Will was a flat out baller. So were, in no order at all, guys like Brand, Battier, Carrawell, Maggette, Laettner, Hurley, Grant Hill, Boozer, Duhon, and Redick. From the very beginning, there was not much doubt, and if so not for very long, that those guys had it and were going to be bringing it in a big way for us. When we were getting guys like that, we didn't have to worry about trying to mine for late blooming nuggets, much less consider putting walk-ons and team managers on the floor for crying out loud."

Oh, Come On. You know who the back-up point-guard was in 1999? Football player D Bryant. Was Andre Buckner a straight-out baller? Than what, pray tell, was Duke doing recruiting him along with J-Will, Boozer, and Dunleavy? How did guys like Weldon Williams, John Smith, Brian Davis, Marty Clark, Nick Horvath, and Matt Christensen get scholarships during that magical time when Duke only recruited straight-out ballers?

Thank goodness none of them actually had to play meaningful minutes. Oh wait, they did. But only on lousy teams, right? No, good teams, championship teams. How could such a travesty happen to a program like Duke, having to play guys like that? I mean if you're not an immediate star, what's the point, right?

[Kedsy]

And by the way, DeJuan Blair averaged 11 pts and 9 boards as a freshman and 15 and 12 as a soph on a deep and balanced top-5 national contending team. Tyrese Rice averaged 9 as a freshman and 17 pts and 5 assists as a soph in the ACC. Sorry to say, but those guys were more ready to play as freshmen and sophs than I envision a guy like Olek ever being.

The point is you can't predict that when you're recruiting. Blair (#59 Rivals) was not highly regarded coming out of high school, although still moreso than Czyz (#112). Luke Harongody (#104 Rivals) was not more highly regarded than Czyz; would you have complained if Duke had recruited him? What would you have said if Duke went after a player like Tyrese Rice, who wasn't even in Rivals top 150?

[SupaDave]

I agree with you. It just kills me to see so many posters making assumptions about what guys can do who have NEVER shown the ability to play at the level Duke wants to play at. Czyz showed absolutely no ability to do that last year. Other posters make all these assumptions about what Kelly is/can do this year, what Mason Plumlee do, etc. It's just silly. Nobody has any idea what these guys are actually going to be capable of against legitimate college competition. Kelly has been described most often as skinny and not ready for the physicality of the high major college game. Mason Plumlee? Who knows? His brother wasn't ready as a freshman. Maybe Mason will be, but I'm certainly not counting on it.

The other thing about Olek is, I'm sure he's a nice guy and he appears to have some good athletic ability. But what on earth is Duke University doing continuing to recruit players who even as sophomores on teams that are woefully thin, are unlikely to be ready to earn playing time? In this day and age, real players play as freshmen and even decent ones play as sophs. This is 2009. If a guy can't play his first two years, what chance does he have to ever really be an impact player? Waste of a scholarship, and I just can't understand why we continue to do it.

Ever heard of a practice player? Everybody can't play. We also usually have a walk-on and have been practicing this for years - including NC years. Maybe you are missing the point of the program...

[SupaDave]

Coach K will need to throw the old playbook out the window, at least the one he's used this decade. This is going to be a very different team for him to coach, one that Herb Sendek or Bo Ryan might feel more at home coaching. This season is going to be very interesting.

I don't think so. All of our team is pretty mobile. Lance, Kyle, Jon, Nolan, MP1, MP2, and Kelly should be able to run with the best of them.

Not to mention that of the above mentioned, only one of them wont shoot a three-pointer, and I expect that individual to be a lot more of an inside slasher this year.

[CDu]

I don't think so. All of our team is pretty mobile. Lance, Kyle, Jon, Nolan, MP1, MP2, and Kelly should be able to run with the best of them.

Not to mention that of the above mentioned, only one of them wont shoot a three-pointer, and I expect that individual to be a lot more of an inside slasher this year.

I see three of those guys as being non-three point shooters (Thomas and the Plumlees). And I'll reserve judgement on Kelly being able to run with the best of them. He may be athletic for a big man, but if he's forced to play the 3 spot he's going to be slow for his position.

That, and given the lack of depth at guard, I don't see us being a run and gun team this year. You have to have the ballhandlers and the depth to do it, and we just don't have the horses. That doesn't mean we can't be effective, but it'll just have to come with a slower pace this year.

[Wander]

I don't think so. All of our team is pretty mobile. Lance, Kyle, Jon, Nolan, MP1, MP2, and Kelly should be able to run with the best of them.


You're missing the point entirely. It's not about whether any of our forwards individually can play fast. Most of them can. It's about only have two guards.

I'm sure people are getting tired of hearing about how we only have two guards already, but that's going to be the defining characteristic of our team next year, and it's going to be talked about over and over and over again. It sucks, but it's a situation we completely put ourselves in.

As someone else said, we need to lock Scheyer and Nolan in a room and only let them out for game time. We need to play slower, because the minutes thing is a non-issue: Scheyer and Nolan are going to play a crapload of minutes no matter what, and playing slow is less tiring than playing fast (I am talking more about individual games than during the season as a whole). We're also one injury away from being entirely screwed, and while I don't have any proof of this, I imagine playing quickly increases risk of injury. And, while I hate zone defenses, I begrudgingly admit that it wouldn't hurt this year.

[miramar]

"That assumes no foul trouble and no injury. You can't be expected to play 40 minutes if you get two first half fouls, and Smith has been known to pick up fouls."

This is my concern also. It's all well and good to talk about playing 40 mpg but what do you do when Scheyer and Smith both have two fouls with seven minutes left in the half? Leave them in and hope? Play a walk-on (s). Put Singler, or Kelly, or Thomas, or Czyz at guard? Try to sneak in Curry and hope that no one notices?

I was also thinking about that, so I looked at last year's stats for minutes and fouls. Here are the numbers for total minutes divided by fouls=minutes per foul. In parentheses I have added fouls per forty minutes:

Czyz 51/2=25.5 (1.6)
Scheyer 1214/62=19.6 (2.04)
Singler 1193/99=12.1 (3.32)
Smith 734/70=10.5 (3.81)
Thomas 689/95=7.25 (5.52)
Zoubek 427/71=6.01 (6.66)
Miles Plumlee=165/37=4.46 (8.97)

These numbers could in fact underestimate the problem since I would expect that the team would have more of a foul problem against better, quicker opponents. After all, you usually don't get into serious foul problems against weak teams. Nevertheless, here are some obvious conclusions:

Scheyer and Singler are both pretty stingy with their fouls, but Smith would have to show further improvement now that he is in his third year. Olek didn't foul at all, but that was in very limited minutes at the end of games, so the numbers don't mean much.

On the other hand, the big guys are a huge problem. Another way of looking at this is how many minutes they could play on average before they get four fouls and become a major liability on defense: Thomas (29), Zoubek (24), and Plumlee (18). Again we can expect some improvement, especially from Miles, but Mason and Kelly are going to have to log some major minutes, and Olek is going to have to step up.

It really seems that our success will depend on our bench, even though the four of them have a total of 216 minutes of experience.

[CDu]

You're missing the point entirely. It's not about whether any of our forwards individually can play fast. Most of them can. It's about only have two guards.

I'm sure people are getting tired of hearing about how we only have two guards already, but that's going to be the defining characteristic of our team next year, and it's going to be talked about over and over and over again. It sucks, but it's a situation we completely put ourselves in.

As someone else said, we need to lock Scheyer and Nolan in a room and only let them out for game time. We need to play slower, because the minutes thing is a non-issue: Scheyer and Nolan are going to play a crapload of minutes no matter what, and playing slow is less tiring than playing fast (I am talking more about individual games than during the season as a whole). We're also one injury away from being entirely screwed, and while I don't have any proof of this, I imagine playing quickly increases risk of injury. And, while I hate zone defenses, I begrudgingly admit that it wouldn't hurt this year.

Well said. I agree 100%. And another important note is that while Thomas, Mason Plumlee and Kelly may be more athletic than the typical college 5, they are not as quick/athletic as the typical college 3s. Thomas and/or Kelly may be forced to spend a fair amount of time there. Similarly, Singler is not more athletic than the typical college 2 or 3, where he'll be spending all of his time. In those situations, we won't have any sort of advantage in a running game, because the opponent is going to be quicker.

And as you said, the biggest problem with our team being a running team is that we just don't have the backcourt depth to do it. We're not going to be able to run because we need to save the legs of the only two guards we have.

[DevilDan]

Despite the events of the past 48 hours, I'm still optimistic about DUKE this fall. Sure, we are going to have matchup problems on some nights, as we did last year with Clemson and Wake. The blowout at Littlejohn (right?) was right up there with the Villanova game.

But IF we can handle the press (that we'll see, undoubtedly), and play some decent perimeter D, this team has a great chance to be ready to rock, come February. So what if we have 8-10 losses, if we ultimately peak at the right time ?

I still say Mason could be the catalyst that raises the bar among the 4-5 frontcourt players we have. Nolan has got to be a workhorse, who plays with flash yet discipline from the point (plus I suspect that K already has a plan to bring in someone to help, even if just in spot duty).

If Jon is freed to play his normal position, and Kyle improves as much as he did last year Frosh-to-Soph, we have two STARS back, and are going to be OK. And I don't think we're going to depend on the "3" as much as before. Miles/Brian/Lance/Mason ... work on your free throws ... ! K will find the answer, I predict.

OLEK? At this point last year, and even more during the summer league reports that followed, I was counting on a contribution from him -- but unfortunately when he hit the floor, he played with a deer-in-the-headlights look, and appeared to be connecting dots in trying to make the simplest little moves. I too hope (after this rehab) that he can come in and make a contribution.

Bottom Line ?!? Ever since Howard Hurt, Doug Kistler, and Carol Youngkin, I have been HOOKED ON DUKE. When Heyman and Mullins came, I was hooping in Greensboro, LIVING AND DYING with the BLUE DEVILS. Vic Bubas was fantasic. Bob Verga's flu at the National SemiFinal against Kentucky nearly killed me (tho' it helped open the door for GO GO BOBBY JOE and Texas Western -- a landmark, remarkable story). Laettner and Battier were two of the best. Why do I say all this -- screw it, like Coach K says, " I love my Team " . ( translation: What, me worry? ) haaaaaaa .... ! GO DUKE !

[MChambers]

I suspect that K already has a plan to bring in someone to help, even if just in spot duty
Doesn't Kobe still have four years of college eligibility?:)

[Kedsy]

And as you said, the biggest problem with our team being a running team is that we just don't have the backcourt depth to do it. We're not going to be able to run because we need to save the legs of the only two guards we have.

I play a lot of pickup and, while obviously the Duke team plays at a level about a bzillion times better than mine, in my experience playing a grind-it-out halfcourt offense (with constant motion) is a lot more tiring than run-and-gun. If you're in any kind of shape at all it's just not that hard to run up and down the floor in straight lines, even if you're running as fast as you can. The tiring part (at least for me) is cutting and switching directions and physical bumping in the half court.

So you may be right about playing slow to save our guards' legs, or it may be the best way to save their legs is to fly down the court and get easy, unchallenged baskets. Personally, I'm not sure which, and unless you've played or coached at a high level I'm not sure any unsupported assertion will convince me as to which would be more taxing for the team.

[Carlos]

Anyone thinking that Williams' departure is going to result in more minutes for Czyz just have been watching a different Olek than I was last year. Czyz is a great athlete and a guy who could learn how to play basketball at this level in another year or so, but looking for it to happen next season is unrealistic.

Duke will be fine as long as there aren't any injuries to Smith or Scheyer. Those guys are going to log a lot of minutes next year so the risk of injury goes up. So does the risk of burnout but the offset of this is that with such a glaring lack of perimeter quickness you should see Duke change the way they approach their man D.

You're unlikely to see much zone next year. Zones are great for teams that are undersized but have the quickness to make the rotations. That's not Duke. Instead, you'll see Duke play more of a containment style man defense which means fewer forced turnovers but it also means that other teams won't be as successful in spreading the floor and attacking off the dribble. (What sucks is that with Williams, and if Plumlee II is as good as expected, Duke would have been able to return to a true pressure defense with a shot blocker in the back.)

Duke will undoubtedly run into problems in games where Smith or Scheyer get into foul trouble but as long as there is at least one of them on the floor the Devils should be OK. One thing that most people are forgetting is that when Singler first came to Duke he was projected as a SF. His reputation was that he had size but handled and passed like a guard. He's going to get plenty of opportunities to do just that next year and I expect he's going to be as effective at that as Carrawell was in 1999.

[miramar]

I play a lot of pickup and, while obviously the Duke team plays at a level about a bzillion times better than mine, in my experience playing a grind-it-out halfcourt offense (with constant motion) is a lot more tiring than run-and-gun. If you're in any kind of shape at all it's just not that hard to run up and down the floor in straight lines, even if you're running as fast as you can. The tiring part (at least for me) is cutting and switching directions and physical bumping in the half court.

So you may be right about playing slow to save our guards' legs, or it may be the best way to save their legs is to fly down the court and get easy, unchallenged baskets. Personally, I'm not sure which, and unless you've played or coached at a high level I'm not sure any unsupported assertion will convince me as to which would be more taxing for the team.

When Florida won back-to-back titles, our dearly departed Billy Packer said something about how that showed that you could win with a seven-man rotation. That's true, but only if you have the kind of talent where you are getting easy baskets all the time, and spending a lot of time running up and down the floor in straight lines, as you say (not to mention getting a lot of rest in blowouts). The more you have to work for baskets, the tougher it is on the team.

We haven’t had this many questions marks since 1999-2000, following the departure of Brand, Langdon, Avery, and Maguette (the top four scorers), not to mention Burgess and Domzalski (Jay Heaps even!), but fortunately everything worked out. I think Coach K is going to show why he has the highest salary on campus.

[Got_Duke]

do we really want Scheyer and Smith starting?

i doubt the coaching staff would like having to rest their two guards at the same time

so i don't see smith starting, but i could possibly see the two on the court at the same time in ACC play

my projection:

Scheyer
Singler
Thomas
Ma. Plumlee
Zoubek

[pfrduke]

do we really want Scheyer and Smith starting?

i doubt the coaching staff would like having to rest their two guards at the same time

so i don't see smith starting, but i could possibly see the two on the court at the same time in ACC play

my projection:

Scheyer
Singler
Thomas
Ma. Plumlee
Zoubek

You realize that there's no rule requiring both starting guards to come out at the same time, right? Smith and Scheyer will start together, likely play close to, if not more than, 30 mpg together, and neither will be sitting at the same time unless it's a complete blowout (aka Casey Peters time).

[Kedsy]

do we really want Scheyer and Smith starting?


Short answer: yes.

[ACCBBallFan]

Anyone thinking that Williams' departure is going to result in more minutes for Czyz just have been watching a different Olek than I was last year. Czyz is a great athlete and a guy who could learn how to play basketball at this level in another year or so, but looking for it to happen next season is unrealistic.

Duke will be fine as long as there aren't any injuries to Smith or Scheyer. Those guys are going to log a lot of minutes next year so the risk of injury goes up. So does the risk of burnout but the offset of this is that with such a glaring lack of perimeter quickness you should see Duke change the way they approach their man D.

You're unlikely to see much zone next year. Zones are great for teams that are undersized but have the quickness to make the rotations. That's not Duke. Instead, you'll see Duke play more of a containment style man defense which means fewer forced turnovers but it also means that other teams won't be as successful in spreading the floor and attacking off the dribble. (What sucks is that with Williams, and if Plumlee II is as good as expected, Duke would have been able to return to a true pressure defense with a shot blocker in the back.)

Duke will undoubtedly run into problems in games where Smith or Scheyer get into foul trouble but as long as there is at least one of them on the floor the Devils should be OK. One thing that most people are forgetting is that when Singler first came to Duke he was projected as a SF. His reputation was that he had size but handled and passed like a guard. He's going to get plenty of opportunities to do just that next year and I expect he's going to be as effective at that as Carrawell was in 1999.

Agree with Carlos on prognosis for Czyz with two caveats:

1. At least now Olek is in top 10, rather than 11 th man and sees regular action in 5 vs 5 scrimmages.

2. His best chance for PT may be the 5 fouls he affords while possibly drawing almost as many or at least a few on an opposing big as third string jumbo 240 pound plus center behind Z and Miles with thunderous crowd pleasing dunks in real game rather than just during warm ups.

If Olek plays 5 minutes commits 5 fouls but draws 2 on a good center, good trade for Duke, kind of like a low skill hockey bully drawing the other team's best player into 5 minutes major each for fighting.

Then Zoubek and Milkes are rested and come back in being guarded by a guy in foul trouble, or his sub. Olek is expendable to Duke and their center is less expendable most likely.

One other thing unrelated to Olek. Remember all that frustration when Duke could not get a defensive rebound to save its life and opponent eventually scored? Now its Duke getting offensive rebounds and scoring and shooting percentage is not as big a concern if you get more than your fair share of putbacks.

So with as many bigs as Duke has, may be better to shoot more mid range shots than 3's where rebounds clang back long. Like Coach K says from perimeter Kyle now has a running start to get the offensive rebound and often he is the thrid and sometimes the fourth tallest guy for Duke on the floor, only 6'8" or 6'9" versus Miles and Kelly at 6'10", Mason at 6'11" and Zoubs 7'1", and two of thes guys plus Olek @ 6'7" , 240 pounds or more.

[ACCBBallFan]

I was also thinking about that, so I looked at last year's stats for minutes and fouls. Here are the numbers for total minutes divided by fouls=minutes per foul. In parentheses I have added fouls per forty minutes:

Czyz 51/2=25.5 (1.6)
Scheyer 1214/62=19.6 (2.04)
Singler 1193/99=12.1 (3.32)
Smith 734/70=10.5 (3.81)
Thomas 689/95=7.25 (5.52)
Zoubek 427/71=6.01 (6.66)
Miles Plumlee=165/37=4.46 (8.97)

These numbers could in fact underestimate the problem since I would expect that the team would have more of a foul problem against better, quicker opponents. After all, you usually don't get into serious foul problems against weak teams. Nevertheless, here are some obvious conclusions:

Scheyer and Singler are both pretty stingy with their fouls, but Smith would have to show further improvement now that he is in his third year. Olek didn't foul at all, but that was in very limited minutes at the end of games, so the numbers don't mean much.

On the other hand, the big guys are a huge problem. Another way of looking at this is how many minutes they could play on average before they get four fouls and become a major liability on defense: Thomas (29), Zoubek (24), and Plumlee (18). Again we can expect some improvement, especially from Miles, but Mason and Kelly are going to have to log some major minutes, and Olek is going to have to step up.

It really seems that our success will depend on our bench, even though the four of them have a total of 216 minutes of experience.

I agree Miles foul rate will improve now that he is 245 and has a year of experience under his belt. But even at those rates,if I underatnd your metrics, since say for example Zoub and Miles are both playing only 20 mnutes, until your number in parenthesis gets to (10.0) they are not fouled out, but do get the enemy into the bonus sooner.

By the end of the game, Duke goes to stall ball anyway and both may be off the floor in favor of Kelly/Mason depending on who can hit FTs which may eliminate Lance. so that yardstick may be even higher than (10.0).

So the (3.81) for Smith and (5.51) for Lance are the more disconcerting, since while technically still in the game, they can play less agressively when in foul trouble. Duke only has four proven perimeter defenders and needs three on the floor at all times with Kyle and Jon being the other two, needed for all kinds of reasons.

Lance's though may be more a function of playing against taller and stronger guys which is not his role any more. Nolan is more a case of learning when to pick his spots now that Duke does not have G, Greg, Elliott, Marty to sub in for him if he was too aggressive.

[ACCBBallFan]

Well said. I agree 100%. And another important note is that while Thomas, Mason Plumlee and Kelly may be more athletic than the typical college 5, they are not as quick/athletic as the typical college 3s. Thomas and/or Kelly may be forced to spend a fair amount of time there. Similarly, Singler is not more athletic than the typical college 2 or 3, where he'll be spending all of his time. In those situations, we won't have any sort of advantage in a running game, because the opponent is going to be quicker.

And as you said, the biggest problem with our team being a running team is that we just don't have the backcourt depth to do it. We're not going to be able to run because we need to save the legs of the only two guards we have.

Well the first order of business to be able to run is either rebound which Duke can do, steal the ball which length will help but lack of speed relatvie to foe at your position will hurt, or inbound real fast after they score which is not the preferred option.

On a one on none breakaway the two guards can take turns running while the other one rests. When Mason or Kelly and possibly Miles are in as centers instead of Zoubek, they can beat their man down the floor for an easy bucket.

While there are so run scenarios that play in Duke's favor, the big advantage (literally) will be offesnive rebounding and putbacks and the second big advantage will be defensive rebounding to start the break.

The other thing may be rope a dope with their puny guards jacking up ill advised shots when the bigs play a sagging man to man. Fall away jumpers to get the shot off over their slow recovering taller defender from just inside the 3 point line is the worst shot in basketball, particularly if the defnsive team can rebound.

Remember the second Michigan game and a few other losses when Duke kept shaking it s head after shooting poorly on open shots. Payback time