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View Full Version : Who needs a point guard?



SupaDave
06-23-2009, 09:27 AM
Nolan Smith...

http://www.dcmetrosports.com/content/view/5709/54/

Me likee...

Kedsy
06-23-2009, 09:52 AM
Nolan Smith...

http://www.dcmetrosports.com/content/view/5709/54/

Me likee...

Well, we all know how much summer league play means when the real season starts, but it would certainly be nice to see.

SupaDave
06-23-2009, 10:32 AM
Well, we all know how much summer league play means when the real season starts, but it would certainly be nice to see.

I chose to take from this how much it appears he's worked on his shot. That's a very good sign.

roywhite
06-23-2009, 10:39 AM
I chose to take from this how much it appears he's worked on his shot. That's a very good sign.

Agreed. If Nolan is a good scoring option, capable of leading the team in scoring in some games, that's real good news. Outside, mid-range, drives (and drawing fouls)...we've seen signs he can do all those things.

Additional skill, experience, and confidence could make for a very good player. Go, Nolan!

gumbomoop
06-23-2009, 11:08 AM
Agreed. If Nolan is a good scoring option, capable of leading the team in scoring in some games, that's real good news. Outside, mid-range, drives (and drawing fouls)...we've seen signs he can do all those things.

Additional skill, experience, and confidence could make for a very good player. Go, Nolan!

Signs: yes, we saw them his frosh year, and their absence last year was puzzle, undoubtedly more to Nolan than to us. I'm still puzzled. Where'd he go? When's he coming back?

Skills: handle esp key to his looming PG duties.

Experience: feel for game gotta be better.

Confidence: I'm guessing K says to Nolan, straight up: "You gotta play good, no meek crap." [Doesn't K have a way with words?]

Come back, Nolan!

geraldsneighbor
06-23-2009, 11:40 AM
Good stuff from Nolan "the escalade" Smith.

Olympic Fan
06-23-2009, 11:43 AM
I think it's a matter of confidence with Nolan.

When you look at last season, you see a guy who started strong -- with a lot of confidence. Remember, he beat out Greg Paulus for the point guard job in preseason, then started the season strong.

Through Duke's first 10 games, Nolan averaged 12.3 points and 2.2 assists and was a defensive force. That included 16 points, 4 assists in the victory over Michigan in MSG and 12 points, 2 assists in both the big win at Purdue and the loss at Michigan.

At that point, his offense began to fluxuate -- 4 points against Xavier ... 13 against VPI ... 4 against Davidson ... 12 at FSU. As he struggled on offense, Nolan seemed to lose some focus on defense. It wasn't an abupt collapse, but more like a long, slow decline. There were still some bright moments in there, but by the time the offense as a whole collapsed at Clemson (with Smith contributing 3 points, no assists), it was obvious that something had to be done.

The brief switch to Paulus at the point, followed by the switch to Scheyer running the show left Smith in limbo. He simply did not play well in the six games after his benching -- he didn't play well offensively or defensively.

That stretch ended when he ran into Dave Neal in College Park and suffered a concussion. He missed the last three games of the ACC season.

He came back for the ACC Tournament and after kind of a tentative outing against BC, was spectacular off the bench in the wins over Maryland and FSU. He played great off the bench in the first two games of the NCAA Tournament. Then, like everybody else on the team, he had a poor showing against Villanova.

Still, I know it's a small sample size, but for a four-game stretch from the Maryland ACC win to the Texas win, Smith was the player we hoped he'd be -- 10 points, 3.0 assists ... a strong on-the-ball defender.

That's the Nolan Smith I hope to see this season. I do think his strong off-season work ethic will pay dividends. I think he's still learning to play the point guard spot (at prep school he played wing guard alongside Ty Lawson and Brandon Jennings).

Now, he'll never be a Hurley clone, passing out 6 of 7 assists a game, but I think he can be a useful third or fourth scoring option, a good ballhandler and -- most importantly -- a kicka** defender.

And keep in mind that K has built Final Four teams without a traditional point guard (1988 and 1989 with Quin Snyder at the point; 1994 with Jeff Capel at the point).

CDu
06-23-2009, 11:56 AM
I don't expect Smith to suddenly become a playmaking PG like Lawson. But I hope he can become a consistent double-digit scorer and a guy capable of getting to the rim fairly consistently - drawing fouls and getting some assists. And most importantly, I hope he can become a defensive stopper at the PG position.

I'd be psyched if he averaged ~12 ppg and ~3 apg next year for us and played 30+ mpg. If he can be a consistent presence for us on the offensive and defensive end, that'll be a huge contribution. I think the development of Smith and Williams is as important as just about anybody next year - probably even moreso than the big guys.

gw67
06-23-2009, 12:11 PM
Smith is not a traditional point guard in the sense that he does not look or create for others. He has averaged one assist per game for his career. He is, however, an excellent all around offensive player and an above average defender. He reminds me of Ewing and I expect he will have a very good year this coming season as a point/off guard combination.

A minor disagreement with Olympic. Quin Snyder would occasionally make an errant pass to the crowd but, IMO, he was a traditional point guard. During his final two years he averaged over 6 assists per game, had an a/TO greater than 2 and guarded the other team's point guard.

gw67

DevilCastDownfromDurham
06-23-2009, 01:09 PM
Smith is not a traditional point guard in the sense that he does not look or create for others. He has averaged one assist per game for his career. He is, however, an excellent all around offensive player and an above average defender. He reminds me of Ewing and I expect he will have a very good year this coming season as a point/off guard combination.

A minor disagreement with Olympic. Quin Snyder would occasionally make an errant pass to the crowd but, IMO, he was a traditional point guard. During his final two years he averaged over 6 assists per game, had an a/TO greater than 2 and guarded the other team's point guard.

gw67

And of course we did have a great point on the '94 team: Grant Hill (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=181) averaged better than 5 assists per game. I'm hopeful that Nolan can provide something like Sean Dockery or Dan Ewing this season. If he blossoms into a real PG or if someone else can take the Grant Hill role as a point-forward we can consider that issue addressed, but, IMO, somebody would have to show us something they haven't even hinted at thus far. This will be an unusual team by any measure, but especially in light of Duke's history of great point play. I'm very interested to see how things shake out.

CDu
06-23-2009, 01:18 PM
I'm hopeful that Nolan can provide something like Sean Dockery or Dan Ewing this season.

That's quite a range to work with. Dockery was not very productive, even in his senior year. He was a solid defender but a liability on offense. Ewing was one of our best players his junior and senior year. He was a solid defender and a force on offense.

No offense to Dockery, but I'm hoping Smith provides a lot more than Dockery provided offensively.

grossbus
06-23-2009, 01:52 PM
"He was a solid defender "

i thought dock got beat off the dribble a lot his senior year. making a swipe at the ball, getting beat and putting the defense into a bad rotation.

DevilCastDownfromDurham
06-23-2009, 01:53 PM
That's quite a range to work with. Dockery was not very productive, even in his senior year. He was a solid defender but a liability on offense. Ewing was one of our best players his junior and senior year. He was a solid defender and a force on offense.

No offense to Dockery, but I'm hoping Smith provides a lot more than Dockery provided offensively.

I meant to suggest a range of possibilities with Dock (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=117)(specialty defender who could hit the open three) at one end and Dan (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=131)(nominal PG with a lot of offensive punch) at the other.

That said, Dock's numbers may surprise you. As a Sr, and on a team with most shots running through JJ and Shel, he put up 7 points, 3 rebounds, and better than 2.5 assists with a 2/1 a/to ratio. So far Nolan (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=2473)is averaging 1.5 assists with just about the same number of TO's. Dock is, by the numbers, a significantly better PG than Nolan.

For comparison, Dan averaged 2.1 assists with 1.8 TO's. As a Sr his assists jumped to 4 but his TO's also jumped up to about 3. Dan dished it out better, but turned it over about twice as much as Sean. Of course Dan also scored about twice as much (15.3).

All of this is to say that Nolan (8.4 and 1.5) can be expected to fit somewhere between Sean (if his assists go up and his O remains what it is) and Dan (if his scoring goes way up and his assists get a bit better). Time will tell.

RockyMtDevil
06-23-2009, 02:00 PM
Those were two of the dumbest, worst written articles ever posted on this site...

SupaDave
06-23-2009, 02:13 PM
Those were two of the dumbest, worst written articles ever posted on this site...

But we're not talking about the articles...

CDu
06-23-2009, 02:22 PM
That said, Dock's numbers may surprise you. As a Sr, and on a team with most shots running through JJ and Shel, he put up 7 points, 3 rebounds, and better than 2.5 assists with a 2/1 a/to ratio. So far Nolan (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=2473)is averaging 1.5 assists with just about the same number of TO's. Dock is, by the numbers, a significantly better PG than Nolan.

Those numbers don't surprise me. I think you're overstating Dockery's role as PG in 2005-2006. He played almost exclusively off the ball and passed to a shooter like Redick. He wasn't asked to do anything substantive offensively, as Paulus was the primary PG. Dockery's low turnover numbers were a function of low responsibility handling the ball. Smith's turnover numbers were worse because he was being asked to make plays with the ball.

It's a lot easier to put up a nice assist/turnover ratio when you aren't the primary ballhandler and playmaker. For comparison, note Smith's stats late this season when he moved off the ball for the last six games (13 assists, 4 turnovers).


For comparison, Dan averaged 2.1 assists with 1.8 TO's. As a Sr his assists jumped to 4 but his TO's also jumped up to about 3. Dan dished it out better, but turned it over about twice as much as Sean. Of course Dan also scored about twice as much (15.3).

Smith is definitely more in the mold of Ewing than a pure PG, and I doubt he'll have a fantastic A/TO ratio. I don't think he'll be quite as good as Ewing was as a senior, but I expect something along the lines of Ewing's junior season (12.6 ppg, 41% 3pt %, excellent defense) but with maybe more in the assist per game department (~3 apg).


All of this is to say that Nolan (8.4 and 1.5) can be expected to fit somewhere between Sean (if his assists go up and his O remains what it is) and Dan (if his scoring goes way up and his assists get a bit better). Time will tell.

I think Smith can probably match Dockery's performance with little to no improvement next year. As I said before, I think his assist/turnover ratio was more a function of having very little ballhandling responsibility than it was be a good point guard.

Thus, I'll be disappointed if that's all Smith brings to the table next year. I expect much more productivity offensively from Smith than Dockery provided, but not as much as Ewing did as a senior. But I hope his productivity is much closer to Ewing than Dockery.

DevilCastDownfromDurham
06-23-2009, 02:35 PM
Thus, I'll be disappointed if that's all Smith brings to the table next year. I expect much more productivity offensively from Smith than Dockery provided, but not as much as Ewing did as a senior. But I hope his productivity is much closer to Ewing than Dockery.

I think we agree on just about everything, and it's a great point about Dock benefiting from playing w/ JJ and Shel (although I think his scoring took a similar hit since they ate up so many of the shots). Dock is the low end (minimal improvement) and Dan is the high end (doubles his scoring, improves assists and a/to numbers).

I also very much hope that his productivity is closer to Dan's, but I wanted to stress that a) he isn't there yet (and sadly we've seen several players not improve or even regress in the last few seasons) and b) that still doesn't really fix our PG issues. I'd definitely take Dan's Jr year numbers in a heartbeat (esp. the 41% from 3).

CDu
06-23-2009, 02:43 PM
I think we agree on just about everything, and it's a great point about Dock benefiting from playing w/ JJ and Shel (although I think his scoring took a similar hit since they ate up so many of the shots). Dock is the low end (minimal improvement) and Dan is the high end (doubles his scoring, improves assists and a/to numbers).

I also very much hope that his productivity is closer to Dan's, but I wanted to stress that a) he isn't there yet (and sadly we've seen several players not improve or even regress in the last few seasons) and b) that still doesn't really fix our PG issues. I'd definitely take Dan's Jr year numbers in a heartbeat (esp. the 41% from 3).

My only beef is with this statement: "I'm hopeful that Nolan can provide something like Sean Dockery or Dan Ewing this season."

I'm not hopeful that Smith can provide something like Dockery. I'll consider that a lack of progress from Smith. I'm hopeful that he can produce something like a watered-down version of Ewing (in other words: a bit less scoring, but otherwise the same).

DevilCastDownfromDurham
06-23-2009, 02:52 PM
My only beef is with this statement: "I'm hopeful that Nolan can provide something like Sean Dockery or Dan Ewing this season."

I'm not hopeful that Smith can provide something like Dockery. I'll consider that a lack of progress from Smith. I'm hopeful that he can produce something like a watered-down version of Ewing (in other words: a bit less scoring, but otherwise the same).

Fair enough. I'll amend my statement: "I expect Nolan to be somewhere between Dock and Dan. I'm hopeful that he will be closer to Dan, but in light of our recent PG (non-)development (Dock, Greg, Nolan so far) I'm keeping a cautious attitude."

Also, congrats on Jeff Mullins. :)

CDu
06-23-2009, 02:56 PM
Fair enough. I'll amend my statement: "I expect Nolan to be somewhere between Dock and Dan. I'm hopeful that he will be closer to Dan, but in light of our recent PG (non-)development (Dock, Greg, Nolan so far) I'm keeping a cautious attitude."

Also, congrats on Jeff Mullins. :)

I completely agree with that sentiment!

SupaDave
06-23-2009, 03:30 PM
I'm actually hoping his production curve is more like Markie's. I haven't looked closely into the numbers but in my head they fit - as well as with a prominent role in the offense this year. Last year it seemed he felt the pressure of getting it to Kyle, Jon, and Gerald in the right position whereas this year he will the green light to just shoot if noone is open. It will change a lot and open up the passing lanes...

CDu
06-23-2009, 04:10 PM
I'm actually hoping his production curve is more like Markie's. I haven't looked closely into the numbers but in my head they fit - as well as with a prominent role in the offense this year. Last year it seemed he felt the pressure of getting it to Kyle, Jon, and Gerald in the right position whereas this year he will the green light to just shoot if noone is open. It will change a lot and open up the passing lanes...

I think the Ewing comp is being used because that's more the type of player Smith is. He's a pure guard, whereas Nelson was basically a forward with guard's height.

But yeah, I'd like to see the type of emergence Nelson made with the type of game Ewing had.

Bob Green
06-23-2009, 04:21 PM
I think the Ewing comp is being used because that's more the type of player Smith is. He's a pure guard, whereas Nelson was basically a forward with guard's height.

But yeah, I'd like to see the type of emergence Nelson made with the type of game Ewing had.

A factor which must be taken into account when comparing Smith and Nelson's early numbers is the serious injuries Nelson dealt with as a freshman and sophomore. While Smith has had an hyper-extended knee issue and the concussion, Nelson played his sophomore season in a protective boot.

However, I agree that Smith could emerge this season and end up with numbers close to those Nelson posted his junior season.

CDu
06-23-2009, 04:27 PM
A factor which must be taken into account when comparing Smith and Nelson's early numbers is the serious injuries Nelson dealt with as a freshman and sophomore. While Smith has had an hyper-extended knee issue and the concussion, Nelson played his sophomore season in a protective boot.

However, I agree that Smith could emerge this season and end up with numbers close to those Nelson posted his junior season.

I don't see Smith ending up with the rebounding numbers that Nelson put up as a junior (5.4), and I hope he puts up better assist numbers than Nelson did (2.0). I'm really hoping for numbers along the lines of Ewing's junior year as a scorer (12.6 ppg, 41% 3pt%) and somewhere between Ewing's junior year (1.9) and senior year (4.0) as a passer.

Bob Green
06-23-2009, 04:35 PM
I don't see Smith ending up with the rebounding numbers that Nelson put up as a junior (5.4), and I hope he puts up better assist numbers than Nelson did (2.0). I'm really hoping for numbers along the lines of Ewing's junior year as a scorer (12.6 ppg, 41% 3pt%) and somewhere between Ewing's junior year (1.9) and senior year (4.0) as a passer.

My post would've been more accurate if I stated: Smith could emerge this season and end up showing the level of improvement Nelson showed his junior season.

Smith and Nelson are different type players as your earlier post pointed out.

CDu
06-23-2009, 04:36 PM
My post would've been more accurate if I stated: Smith could emerge this season and end up showing the level of improvement Nelson showed his junior season.

Smith and Nelson are different type players as your earlier post pointed out.

I've got you now. I agree. I'm hoping for that type of improvement too. Sorry for the nitpick.

Olympic Fan
06-23-2009, 05:12 PM
A minor disagreement with Olympic. Quin Snyder would occasionally make an errant pass to the crowd but, IMO, he was a traditional point guard. During his final two years he averaged over 6 assists per game, had an a/TO greater than 2 and guarded the other team's point guard.

You have a right to your opinion, but IMHO -- and I believe an opinion that was shared by most at that time -- Snyder was a combo guard who learned to play the point ... kind of like Jon Scheyer. The offense in 1988 and 1989 ran through point forward Danny Ferry. [Note: please don't get too carried away with assist numbers; Greg Paulus led the ACC in assists as a freshman -- does that prove he was a creator? Snyder got most of his assists dumping the ball to Ferry, who in addition to being the only creator on the team, was also the top scorer).

It's a bit misleading to quote his junior and senior stats against a guy who has just finished his sophomore season. What did Quin's numbers look like after his sophomore season?

Well, after averaging 2.3 points and 1.3 assists for a team that was loaded with veteran talent as a freshman; he averaged 6.7 points, 3.4 assists and a 1.51/1 A/TO ratio for a team with far more playing opportunities in 1987.

Look, I'm actually not trying to compare Quin to Nolan (Snyder was much more like Scheyer), just to assert that he was hardly a traditional point guard. Same with Jeff Capel in '94 -- in both cases, K designed his offense to run through a point forward -- Danny Ferry in '88 and '89/Grant Hill in '94.

And I'm not suggesting that K will offer the same design in 2009-10. As much as I admire Kyle Singler, I don't think he has the playmaking skills to be a point forward in the mode of Ferry and Hill. What I'm arguing is that Krzyzewski has proven he's flexible enough to win without a traditional playmaker. I suspect that he'll find a way.

How he works it will be interesting to see -- in a true motion set, the point guard position is not as vital (although it requires five versatile players capable of moving the ball and scoring).

Scorp4me
06-24-2009, 04:06 AM
Greg Paulus led the ACC in assists as a freshman -- does that prove he was a creator?

I don't mean to nitpick, but I hate it when this argument is used against him. Paulus lacked the scorers to go to later in this career that he had his freshman year. JJ improved his game but his bread and butter was catch and shoot. Shelden is the last real post presense we've had. So no it's not a surprise that he was able to dish out more assit that season, but he lead the ACC. That's not something you just gloss over.

Later in his career he had no inside post presense and the best scorer was Henderson who could create on his own. Yet he consistently gets no credit for his early success and no caveat for his later struggles.

I know you used it in the case of a "creator", but in general it happens far too often.

UrinalCake
06-24-2009, 07:46 AM
However, I agree that Smith could emerge this season and end up with numbers close to those Nelson posted his junior season.

Nelson spent the summer before his junior season bulking him, training with a Navy Seal. JJ also made great strides in his conditioning the summer before his junior year. Not sure what sort of off-season conditioning our guys are doing but this would be a great year for Nolan to take another step up.

miramar
06-24-2009, 08:57 AM
"6:80 – Nolan Smith converts on a beautiful hanging jumper ala MJ himself."

Who's this MJ? Never heard of him...at least not on this board.

SupaDave
06-24-2009, 09:16 AM
Nelson spent the summer before his junior season bulking him, training with a Navy Seal. JJ also made great strides in his conditioning the summer before his junior year. Not sure what sort of off-season conditioning our guys are doing but this would be a great year for Nolan to take another step up.

You could say that again...