Article: The Historically Weak HS Class of 2005

[KandG]

Interesting and thorough piece from DraftExpress on the very weak high school class of 2005 and how it is still having repercussions on the upcoming NBA draft. Notable (and all too familiar) to Duke fans here because what looked like a great haul for us (McRoberts, Paulus, Boateng, Pocius) turned out to be not quite all that:

Has the High School Class of 05 Doomed the 2009 NBA Draft? (http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Has-the-High-School-Class-of-05-Doomed-the-2009-NBA-Draft-3246)

[rthomas]

Interesting and thorough piece from DraftExpress on the very weak high school class of 2005 and how it is still having repercussions on the upcoming NBA draft. Notable (and all too familiar) to Duke fans here because what looked like a great haul for us (McRoberts, Paulus, Boateng, Pocius) turned out to be not quite all that:

Has the High School Class of 05 Doomed the 2009 NBA Draft? (http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Has-the-High-School-Class-of-05-Doomed-the-2009-NBA-Draft-3246)


I heard that English and math was particularly bad in the 2005 class that year too. Basketball, math, English, wow! a very bad year.. Glad the wine was good in 2005.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

I heard that English and math was particularly bad in the 2005 class that year too. Basketball, math, English, wow! a very bad year.. Glad the wine was good in 2005.

I don't get it.


Anyway, that was a bad year for us, but I do not necessarily think the draft this year is that bad. I think there is some good guard play in this draft (frontcourt is weak after Griffin and Thabeet). For Duke, that has to be one of the most dissapointing recruiting classes is the modern Coach K era. Although, I thought Pocius was in Henderson's class. Quite an eye opener though.

[El_Diablo]

Boykin was in that recruiting class too.

[NSDukeFan]

I believe this draft class is a huge reason that Carolina has had an edge over Duke most of the last four years. What a class! The 2nd, 16th, 40th, 56th and 63rd ranked players all signed to Duke. Please don't tell me K can't recruit, he got a great class, that didn't turn out as well as hoped in a poor year for recruits. UNC happened to get 6th, 18th, 29th and 31st ranked players and that ended up being a far superior class. Sometimes luck plays a part and it is not always because K can't recruit or we don't have a big man coach who played center in the NBA or whatever.

[miramar]

I believe this draft class is a huge reason that Carolina has had an edge over Duke most of the last four years. What a class! The 2nd, 16th, 40th, 56th and 63rd ranked players all signed to Duke. Please don't tell me K can't recruit, he got a great class, that didn't turn out as well as hoped in a poor year for recruits. UNC happened to get 6th, 18th, 29th and 31st ranked players and that ended up being a far superior class. Sometimes luck plays a part and it is not always because K can't recruit or we don't have a big man coach who played center in the NBA or whatever.

Couldn't agree more. We had the #2 recruiting class in the country and Carolina had the #9, yet Duke's top player underperformed and was gone in two years, while Carolina's top player stayed four years and became the ACC's all-time leading scorer. Two Duke recruits left quickly and two others had little playing time their senior year, but that's basketball I guess.

It's little wonder that some of this year's graduating class would say "Oh-nine, oh no!" They came in expecting that Duke would continue its domination of the ACC (6 out of the 7 previous championships), but instead they went through the lacrosse hoax, lost the WBB coach, and never saw Duke beat Carolina at home, which I believe is a first under Coach K. This year was the first time they saw Duke win during senior night.

BTW, there is an even more dramatic recruiting case from 2004. Kentucky had the #1 recruiting class and Florida the #12, but three years later Billy Donovan had two national championships and Tubby Smith was gone.

[rthomas]

I heard that English and math was particularly bad in the 2005 class that year too. Basketball, math, English, wow! a very bad year.. Glad the wine was good in 2005.

I don't get it.


Anyway, that was a bad year for us, but I do not necessarily think the draft this year is that bad. I think there is some good guard play in this draft (frontcourt is weak after Griffin and Thabeet). For Duke, that has to be one of the most dissapointing recruiting classes is the modern Coach K era. Although, I thought Pocius was in Henderson's class. Quite an eye opener though.

just saying a 'wine' year is really more important than a 'draft' year.

[Duke #33]

Although, I thought Pocius was in Henderson's class. Quite an eye opener though.

If my memory serves me correctly, Pocius was in the 2005 class, but redshirted(don't remember the year), so he would have been a fifth year senior this upcoming year.

[KandG]

I believe this draft class is a huge reason that Carolina has had an edge over Duke most of the last four years. What a class! The 2nd, 16th, 40th, 56th and 63rd ranked players all signed to Duke. Please don't tell me K can't recruit, he got a great class, that didn't turn out as well as hoped in a poor year for recruits. UNC happened to get 6th, 18th, 29th and 31st ranked players and that ended up being a far superior class. Sometimes luck plays a part and it is not always because K can't recruit or we don't have a big man coach who played center in the NBA or whatever.

Can't say enough amens to your points above. Wholeheartedly agree with everything said.

[Dukeford]

Interesting and thorough piece from DraftExpress on the very weak high school class of 2005 and how it is still having repercussions on the upcoming NBA draft. Notable (and all too familiar) to Duke fans here because what looked like a great haul for us (McRoberts, Paulus, Boateng, Pocius) turned out to be not quite all that:

Has the High School Class of 05 Doomed the 2009 NBA Draft? (http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Has-the-High-School-Class-of-05-Doomed-the-2009-NBA-Draft-3246)

If you click on the story link, and then click on the link for Greg Paulus in the top 100 list, there is an evaluation/projection for him that was written in 2006. In retrospect, it's sort of a painful read now.

[Newton_14]

I believe this draft class is a huge reason that Carolina has had an edge over Duke most of the last four years. What a class! The 2nd, 16th, 40th, 56th and 63rd ranked players all signed to Duke. Please don't tell me K can't recruit, he got a great class, that didn't turn out as well as hoped in a poor year for recruits. UNC happened to get 6th, 18th, 29th and 31st ranked players and that ended up being a far superior class. Sometimes luck plays a part and it is not always because K can't recruit or we don't have a big man coach who played center in the NBA or whatever.

That 05 unc class was part 1 of why we have had the pain of the last 4 years. Part 2 was when they followed the 05 Class with the 06 Class in which they brought in the number 1 PG, number 1 SG, and number 1 PF. And just for kicks brought in Thompson and Stephenson.

Those 2 back to back classes ended up unreal with all being as good or better than advertised. Now granted, ol roy is a great recruiter, but it takes a bit of luck to have that many players be that good in back to back classes.. Sooner or later it will balance out and he will have a couple of classes that under achieve. Lets hope that begins with the 09 Class.....

[roywhite]

That 05 unc class was part 1 of why we have had the pain of the last 4 years. Part 2 was when they followed the 05 Class with the 06 Class in which they brought in the number 1 PG, number 1 SG, and number 1 PF. And just for kicks brought in Thompson and Stephenson.

Those 2 back to back classes ended up unreal with all being as good or better than advertised. Now granted, ol roy is a great recruiter, but it takes a bit of luck to have that many players be that good in back to back classes.. Sooner or later it will balance out and he will have a couple of classes that under achieve. Lets hope that begins with the 09 Class.....

..and a bit of luck for that nucleus to stay together for 3 years. Lawson, Green, and Ellington all wanted to go pro in the spring of 2008, but didn't get the kind of draft projection they hoped for, so they returned. And Hansbrough stayed in college for 4 years.

That's a fairly typical story for an NCAA champion in the NBA early entry era. The key is to have a very talented nucleus and have them play together for the better part of 2 or 3 years.

To be fair to UNC, they also had some injuries and adversity along the way, losing Ginyard this year, and losing Zeller for a good part of the year. But they won the prize with a confluence of good recruiting classes and players that stayed together.

The 2005 class has now passed through the college ranks; time to write a new chapter.

[mo.st.dukie]

Lawson, Green, and Ellington all wanted to go pro in the spring of 2008, but didn't get the kind of draft projection they hoped for, so they returned.



It pisses me off when ESPN and other sports talk people praise UNC's kids for reversing the recent trend and turning down millions of dollars because of their love for UNC and the quest for a national championship. HELLO, they would've been gone had they been good enough to get a top 20 guarantee.

That 05 class hurt big time for Duke, I firmly believe Boykin would've helped big time on this years team. Duke also had a top 5 class in 06 and many would argue that class has underperformed as well, particularly the big men. Player development may be a bigger problem for Duke right now than recruiting.

[miramar]

If you click on the story link, and then click on the link for Greg Paulus in the top 100 list, there is an evaluation/projection for him that was written in 2006. In retrospect, it's sort of a painful read now.

Painful indeed. They realize that he does not have the athleticism that would guarantee NBA success, but there were huge expectations at the college level.

[dukelifer]

Painful indeed. They realize that he does not have the athleticism that would guarantee NBA success, but there were huge expectations at the college level.
It is interesting to look at Paulus's career. He did everything that was asked of him. He had two seasons averaging 11+ ppg and had some huge games in big moments. Duhon who many consider to be better never averaged more than 10 ppg. The only place where he really did not play to the expectations was his assist numbers. Many including myself expected much better numbers. But then again- he did not have the great talent around him that some of the other Duke PG guards had. He had some injuries that slowed him down but he was a very good college player. His senior year was a disappointment because he never really was able to come off the bench and be as effective as he was as a starter.

Look at the highest PPG of recent 4 year McDonald AA PGs at Duke

Amaker 12.3 senior season
Snyder 8.3 junior season
Hurley 17.0 senior season 13.2 junior season
Capel 16.6 junior season
Wojo 6.9 junior season
Duhon 10.0 senior season
Dockery 7.1 senior season
Paulus 11.8 sophomore season 11.4 junior season

So from a scoring point of view- Paulus was right there with his PPG and had two seasons over 11. Only Hurley and Capel had two seasons over 11.

I would argue that is a pretty good career for a Duke PG.

[miramar]

I agree that Paulus did everything that was asked of him. In fact, I'm sure he couldn't have given any more than he did.

He was effective for three years even though (as noted) he wasn't surrounded with the same talent as most other point guards at Duke. He was never a great assist man (3.2 per game as a junior) because he couldn't break down defenses, which is also why he didn't get many 2PT baskets (35 in 34 games as a junior).

I really hoped that he would go out with a bang, but his senior year just didn't work out as expected. That's a shame because I think he deserved a lot better. I'm not sure what happened. I don't know if it's because he didn't adjust to coming off the bench or what. He certainly didn't look as comfortable as before, and in fact he seemed sometimes to be slower than the previous year. But I guess if there were an easy explanation the coaches would have figured it out.

I certainly hope he will do great in Syracuse.

[Poincaré]

About Greg's assist numbers... Doesn't running a motion offense in the form preferred by Bobby Knight and Coach K usually suppress point guard assists? I've thought for a while that our forwards and wings get more assists than usual because of this and our PGs end up getting quite a few hockey assists that aren't counted in the box score.

I feel like Greg's offensive problems were more along the lines of not getting enough of those hockey assists to generate wins. He always seemed more like a QB than a PG, waiting in the pocket for the perfect situation to develop.

At any rate, Greg's been through a lot of injuries, as has our entire team over the last few years. Things might have been different. I almost feel like some of our guys are ignoring injuries to their own detriment because they are too competitive. Remember when Shav essentially made his own orthotics with tennis balls instead of getting surgery?

[ChicagoCrazy84]

At any rate, Greg's been through a lot of injuries, as has our entire team over the last few years. Things might have been different. I almost feel like some of our guys are ignoring injuries to their own detriment because they are too competitive. Remember when Shav essentially made his own orthotics with tennis balls instead of getting surgery?


I gotta say, I never really bought into the injury excuse for Paulus. Coach K used that for him a lot over the years and I never really agreed with it. He broke his foot in the offseason one year, but was cleared to play before the season started and never was able to get quicker, so that is probably not an injury problem. He also had a forearm issue I think? I won't even start with that. I think DeMarcus Nelson had far worse luck than Paulus with injuries, and he was still able to be a big difference maker, even when he was still not 100%. Henderson as well with his wrist. A wrist is not a good joint to hurt for a basketball player and when it healed to a good extent, G went nuts.
I am not bashing Paulus by any means, but I don't believe that his career was in any way derailed by injuries.

[BD80]

At any rate, Greg's been through a lot of injuries, as has our entire team over the last few years. ...

Which of course is because of Coach K's involvement with the Olympic team

Long and short of it all, the sample size is way to small to identify any trends. Particularly when you are dealing with teenagers.

If we get one more Plumlee, would that be a trend?

[Kdogg]

Lawson, Green, and Ellington all wanted to go pro in the spring of 2008, but didn't get the kind of draft projection they hoped for, so they returned.

The DUI was what brought Lawson back. I think he was OK being a late first rounder. I blame those cops (like I blame Bobby Knight in 2005) for UNC's latest championship. :) Yes, I'm still a little bitter.

[COYS]

The DUI was what brought Lawson back. I think he was OK being a late first rounder. I blame those cops (like I blame Bobby Knight in 2004) for UNC's latest championships. :) . Yes, I'm still a little bitter.)

It's obviously hard to speculate for sure whether Lawson would've stayed in if there had been no DUI, but I definitely agree that it was the nail in the coffin. Scouts didn't trust his size, lack of defensive toughness, inconsistencies and lack of focus on the court, outside shot, nor his seemingly gimpy ankle. Luck (or bad luck) certainly played an important part in UNC returning all of their guys for this past year's run.

[tommy]

It is interesting to look at Paulus's career. He did everything that was asked of him. He had two seasons averaging 11+ ppg and had some huge games in big moments. Duhon who many consider to be better never averaged more than 10 ppg. The only place where he really did not play to the expectations was his assist numbers. Many including myself expected much better numbers. But then again- he did not have the great talent around him that some of the other Duke PG guards had. He had some injuries that slowed him down but he was a very good college player. His senior year was a disappointment because he never really was able to come off the bench and be as effective as he was as a starter.

Look at the highest PPG of recent 4 year McDonald AA PGs at Duke

Amaker 12.3 senior season
Snyder 8.3 junior season
Hurley 17.0 senior season 13.2 junior season
Capel 16.6 junior season
Wojo 6.9 junior season
Duhon 10.0 senior season
Dockery 7.1 senior season
Paulus 11.8 sophomore season 11.4 junior season

So from a scoring point of view- Paulus was right there with his PPG and had two seasons over 11. Only Hurley and Capel had two seasons over 11.

I would argue that is a pretty good career for a Duke PG.

The problem with Paulus was not his scoring numbers. One could argue that the most significant problem wasn't even his inability to penetrate and dish, though that deficiency definitely hurt us. In my mind, without question the biggest problem we had with Paulus on the court was his continual inability to STOP dribble penetration by opposing guards. He just couldn't move his feet fast enough. Thinking about comparing him to Duhon on that front? Ha! Duhon was outstanding in that regard, and it keyed our whole defense in those years. Paulus' liabilities on the defensive end hurt us, in my opinion, much more so than those on the offensive end.

[BDP]

It is interesting to look at Paulus's career. He did everything that was asked of him. He had two seasons averaging 11+ ppg and had some huge games in big moments. Duhon who many consider to be better never averaged more than 10 ppg. The only place where he really did not play to the expectations was his assist numbers. Many including myself expected much better numbers. But then again- he did not have the great talent around him that some of the other Duke PG guards had. He had some injuries that slowed him down but he was a very good college player. His senior year was a disappointment because he never really was able to come off the bench and be as effective as he was as a starter.

Look at the highest PPG of recent 4 year McDonald AA PGs at Duke

Amaker 12.3 senior season
Snyder 8.3 junior season
Hurley 17.0 senior season 13.2 junior season
Capel 16.6 junior season
Wojo 6.9 junior season
Duhon 10.0 senior season
Dockery 7.1 senior season
Paulus 11.8 sophomore season 11.4 junior season

So from a scoring point of view- Paulus was right there with his PPG and had two seasons over 11. Only Hurley and Capel had two seasons over 11.

I would argue that is a pretty good career for a Duke PG.

Forgot to mention 2 PGs, Jason Williams and Avery.

[dukelifer]

Forgot to mention 2 PGs, Jason Williams and Avery.
I limited this analysis to 4 year players for Duke.

[dukelifer]

The problem with Paulus was not his scoring numbers. One could argue that the most significant problem wasn't even his inability to penetrate and dish, though that deficiency definitely hurt us. In my mind, without question the biggest problem we had with Paulus on the court was his continual inability to STOP dribble penetration by opposing guards. He just couldn't move his feet fast enough. Thinking about comparing him to Duhon on that front? Ha! Duhon was outstanding in that regard, and it keyed our whole defense in those years. Paulus' liabilities on the defensive end hurt us, in my opinion, much more so than those on the offensive end.

Agreed - he had some limitations on the defensive end. But to say he was a huge disappointment or it was painful for Duke fans for how far below expectations he was is simply not supported by his numbers. As for Duhon, he was very good and of all the players who played at PG at Duke under K- he will have the longest NBA career. Paulus like many before him never had NBA level talent.

[arnie]

And don't forget Amaker's defense- amazing number of steals and ability to stay in front of other guards. Paulus simply was a defensive liability and most of the other point guards have been solid if not great defenders.

[dgoore97]

It is interesting to look at Paulus's career. He did everything that was asked of him. He had two seasons averaging 11+ ppg and had some huge games in big moments. Duhon who many consider to be better never averaged more than 10 ppg. The only place where he really did not play to the expectations was his assist numbers. Many including myself expected much better numbers. But then again- he did not have the great talent around him that some of the other Duke PG guards had. He had some injuries that slowed him down but he was a very good college player. His senior year was a disappointment because he never really was able to come off the bench and be as effective as he was as a starter.

Look at the highest PPG of recent 4 year McDonald AA PGs at Duke

Amaker 12.3 senior season
Snyder 8.3 junior season
Hurley 17.0 senior season 13.2 junior season
Capel 16.6 junior season
Wojo 6.9 junior season
Duhon 10.0 senior season
Dockery 7.1 senior season
Paulus 11.8 sophomore season 11.4 junior season

So from a scoring point of view- Paulus was right there with his PPG and had two seasons over 11. Only Hurley and Capel had two seasons over 11.

I would argue that is a pretty good career for a Duke PG.

from a character persective, he is an extremely admirable person. but to be accurate, about his performance, the difference between him and most of the other pgs listed is not in points scored, but in defense and athleticism. unfortunately there is no simple stat for how manytimes you get beat off the dribble by a quicker player

i wish him the best at syracuse.

[ACCBBallFan]

As maligned as Greg Paulus is relative to 2005 expectations, he is in Duke’s all time top 10 in several categories, and surprisingly 14th on all time steals, though Jon Scheyer currently 23rd @ 143 may pass him this season.

Paulus has more steals than several guys he passed without any fanfare last season in limited action, only one behind # 13 Gene Banks who had 173, and for example had 27 more steals than Demarcus Nelson.

14 - Greg Paulus 172
15 - Danny Ferry 169
16 - Johnny Dawkins 168
17 - Mike Dunleavy 166
18 - Shelden Williams 161

http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/misc.php?playerid=497

Greg Paulus Career Rankings

Category Rank Total
Games Played 09 139
Games Started 20 100
Minutes 17 3752
Minutes Per Game 29 27.0
3-Point Field Goals 08 210
3-Point FG Attempt09 527
3-Point FG Pct. 06 .398
Free Throw Pct. 17 .775
Defensive Rebound 34 238
Assists 09 468
Assists Per Game 15 3.4
Steals 14 172
Steals Per Game 21 1.2

Not sure how long this metric has been being tracked, but Greg is 34th all time Duke defensive rebounding.

Career Steals Leaders
Rank Player STL
1. Chris Duhon 300
2. Shane Battier 266
3. Tommy Amaker 259
4. Christian Laettner 243
5. Jason Williams 235
6. Grant Hill 218
7. Steve Wojciechowski 203
8. Bobby Hurley 202
9. Thomas Hill 194
tied Sean Dockery 194

11 - Daniel Ewing 191
12 - Quinn Snyder 185
13 - Gene Banks 173
14 - Greg Paulus 172
15 - Danny Ferry 169
16 - Johnny Dawkins 168
17 - Mike Dunleavy 166
18 - Shelden Williams 161
19 - (could not figure out who this is)
20 - David Henderson 151
21 - Nate James 147
22 - Demarcus Nelson 145
23 - Jon Scheyer 143
24 - Billy King 140
25 - Phil Henderson 129

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

As others have said, I love Greg. I don't think we've had a higher-character guy in my memory and his academic success is extremely laudable. But cherry picking one stat (scoring) from the middle of his career is anything but illuminating.

Greg's career numbers are: 8.6 points, 3.4 assists, 2.1 TO's. As a PG he was a major defensive liability and was never able to create easy offense for the rest of the team, which is why his minutes dropped precipitously in his senior season despite Nolan fairing so poorly with the role that he was also benched.

Comparing him to Chris Duhon (5.1 APG, Duke's all-time leader in steals) who as a Senior threw up 10 PPG, 6.1 APG and led his team within one bad Okafor call of the title game does a disservice to everyone.

I'm deeply proud to call Greg a Blue Devil and there's no doubt he did everything he could to help the team. But only one of those guys "rack[ed] up enough wins [112 vs. 123] and enough assists [468 vs. 819] to challenge all the great point guards in Duke’s storied history of terrific playmakers." Comparing the two is unfair to Greg and more than a bit insulting to Chris.

[dukelifer]

As others have said, I love Greg. I don't think we've had a higher-character guy in my memory and his academic success is extremely laudable. But cherry picking one stat (scoring) from the middle of his career is anything but illuminating.

Greg's career numbers are: 8.6 points, 3.4 assists, 2.1 TO's. As a PG he was a major defensive liability and was never able to create easy offense for the rest of the team, which is why his minutes dropped precipitously in his senior season despite Nolan fairing so poorly with the role that he was also benched.

Comparing him to Chris Duhon (5.1 APG, Duke's all-time leader in steals) who as a Senior threw up 10 PPG, 6.1 APG and led his team within one bad Okafor call of the title game does a disservice to everyone.

I'm deeply proud to call Greg a Blue Devil and there's no doubt he did everything he could to help the team. But only one of those guys "rack[ed] up enough wins [112 vs. 123] and enough assists [468 vs. 819] to challenge all the great point guards in Duke’s storied history of terrific playmakers." Comparing the two is unfair to Greg and more than a bit insulting to Chris.

The comparison to Chris was simply to indicate that Paulus also brought something to the table- he was a double digit scorer for two years in a row. Chris had better numbers in some areas but also had much better talent around him for most of his career- bolstering his wins and assist numbers. He will also be the only K point guard with more that 4 years in the NBA- so his abilities speak for themselves. But Chris also came in the college as a knock down shooter and that never was fully realized.

I am not sure it is fair to criticize a player as disappointing because he was not athletic. It is like criticizing a player for not being tall. If Paulus had longer arms and that alone he may have been a better defender. The kid gave his all and made the most out what his genes gave him.

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

The comparison to Chris was simply to indicate that Paulus also brought something to the table- he was a double digit scorer for two years in a row. Chris had better numbers in some areas but also had much better talent around him for most of his career- bolstering his wins and assist numbers. He will also be the only K point guard with more that 4 years in the NBA- so his abilities speak for themselves. But Chris also came in the college as a knock down shooter and that never was fully realized.

I am not sure it is fair to criticize a player as disappointing because he was not athletic. It is like criticizing a player for not being tall. If Paulus had longer arms and that alone he may have been a better defender. The kid gave his all and made the most out what his genes gave him.

I don't think anyone thinks that Greg brought nothing to the table (although Robert Brickey, Kenny Dennard, and Greg Newton also had 2+ years of double digit scoring) and I'm 100% certain that no one questions whether Greg "gave his all" or "made the most" out of what he had.

Read the 2005 projection (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Greg-Paulus-79/)and see what everyone expected from the #1 PG in the class of 2005. It's very different than how things turn out. I agree that it's not fair to criticize Greg for his physical limitations and I don't think anyone here is doing that. It is, however, "sort of painful" (in the OP's words) for fans, and I'd bet for Greg himself to compare what was expected and how things turned out. It's no fault of Greg's, but there's no sense in putting our heads in the sand either.

[El_Diablo]

A pretty in-depth discussion of Duke's recent recruiting and its effects on the program:

http://duke.scout.com/2/870413.html

[miramar]

A pretty in-depth discussion of Duke's recent recruiting and its effects on the program:

http://duke.scout.com/2/870413.html

Thanks! That is a very informative article.

There is no question that Duke can no longer rely on the so-called bridge classes because you can't count on the big classes to stay around. In fact, it seems that you can't even rely on the players in the bridge classes to show up (Livingston, Humphreys) or to stay more than a year (Deng), so Duke has to go after fairly large classes year after year.

It's also important to remember Macdonald's key question: "It’s hard to argue the Tar Heels aren’t ahead of the Blue Devils right now, [but] how much is that by design and how much is it by chance?"

On paper Duke has recruited very well of late, but recruits don't always work out. As we have commented, the class of 2009 had more than its share of players who didn't develop as expected, which only compounded the shortage of players from the previous two recruiting classes. We can't forget that the class of 2007 did not exist, while the class of 2008 was made up of only DeMarcus Nelson and Dave McClure, who redshirted a year. So those two classes only provided a total of three seasons of starting players (1 Deng, 2 Nelson).

Last year Duke had two players to play the #1 and three to play #5 so those should have been strong points for the team, but in life stuff happens. And sometimes it doesn't happen, such as all the Carolina players who stayed around. But as we know, college basketball teams tend to change dramatically from one year to the next, so I would say that reports of our demise have been greatly exaggerated.

[Dukeford]

"We’re talking about an old-school pass-first point guard with an outstanding sense for running an offense and finding the open man. His ball-handling skills are terrific with either hand, allowing him to use a nice array of speed changes and hesitation moves to get his man off balance and drive the lane effectively. His court vision is superb and his decision making instantaneous, which results in at least one or two highlight reel passes every game; whether it’s threading the needle through multiple defenders, throwing a beautiful lob to a cutting big man, or finding the open man spotting up on the wing off a one handed no-look pass. Paulus has almost every pass you would want a point guard to have down pat in his arsenal, and he tries to use most of them every time he steps out on the floor. "

Above is the part of the evaluation that I thought was a painful read. If anything, he was much less of the things described above and turned out to be a great shooter. And I'm not anti-Paulus. I really hated to see him sitting on the bench so much in the 2nd half of the season.

[dukelifer]

I don't think anyone thinks that Greg brought nothing to the table (although Robert Brickey, Kenny Dennard, and Greg Newton also had 2+ years of double digit scoring) and I'm 100% certain that no one questions whether Greg "gave his all" or "made the most" out of what he had.

Read the 2005 projection (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Greg-Paulus-79/)and see what everyone expected from the #1 PG in the class of 2005. It's very different than how things turn out. I agree that it's not fair to criticize Greg for his physical limitations and I don't think anyone here is doing that. It is, however, "sort of painful" (in the OP's words) for fans, and I'd bet for Greg himself to compare what was expected and how things turned out. It's no fault of Greg's, but there's no sense in putting our heads in the sand either.

I read the article and it seemed to be pretty fair. This is after his Freshman year- where he had a lot of assists and made some outstanding plays at times. But it also said this

"Paulus is an average athlete at best, showing a mediocre first step and little to no explosiveness once he reaches the paint and attempts to finishes. It’s not rare to see him getting his shot blocked, as he just does not get off the floor quick or high enough to compete with the type of athletes the ACC had to throw at him as a freshman. How that will translate to the NBA is not a simple equation. He’ll have to become even smarter and craftier at driving the lane and finishing, a la Steve Nash, or he really doesn’t stand a chance.

Defensively, he is smart, tough and active enough to be above average as a college player, but there will again be questions about his lateral quickness at the next level."

It also says

"On top of that, he’s a natural born leader with a great flair for the game, combining outstanding instincts with the type of physical and mental toughness you just cannot teach. It’s not rare to see him stick his nose in for a charge or hit the deck for a loose ball, and you’re just as likely to see him rile up the crowd, his teammates, and himself with his sheer desire to make plays. "

So this article does not have outrageous expectations for him. If anything- it was expected him to get better as a shooter- which he did. All in all, this article suggested he had a chance to grow as a player - but did not claim he was the second coming of Nash.

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

So this article does not have outrageous expectations for him. If anything- it was expected him to get better as a shooter- which he did. All in all, this article suggested he had a chance to grow as a player - but did not claim he was the second coming of Nash.

The very last thing I want to do is spend lots of time focusing on the sad state that the basketball career of a great person like Greg ended up as. So I'll just say if this:

"In terms of the type of college point guard you want recruited onto your team, you couldn’t draw up a better prototype. Smart and skilled enough to run an offense effectively in one of the most pressure packed environments in the NCAA from the moment he become eligible..."

"...he is going to rack up enough wins and enough assists to challenge all the great point guards in Duke’s storied history of terrific playmakers."

"...an outstanding sense for running an offense and finding the open man."

"His ball-handling skills are terrific with either hand, allowing him to use a nice array of speed changes and hesitation moves to get his man off balance and drive the lane effectively..."

"His court vision is superb and his decision making instantaneous, which results in at least one or two highlight reel passes every game; whether it’s threading the needle through multiple defenders, throwing a beautiful lob to a cutting big man, or finding the open man spotting up on the wing off a one handed no-look pass."

"Paulus has almost every pass you would want a point guard to have down pat in his arsenal, and he tries to use most of them every time he steps out on the floor."

"Defensively, he is smart, tough and active enough to be above average as a college player..."

"Few players in the country understand passing angles the way Paulus already does at this point in his career. His ability to thread the needle with highlight reel passes make Duke's halfcourt offense extremely tough to predict..."

is what you've seen on the court for the past few seasons then I don't think we're seeing eye-to-eye on very much (and we know where K's substitution pattern and the NBA's draft experts stand on the issue). I'm proud of Greg but sad that his career didn't end out as the experts (and the staff) expected. If you feel differently, c'est la vie.

[zingit]

I gotta say, I never really bought into the injury excuse for Paulus. Coach K used that for him a lot over the years and I never really agreed with it. He broke his foot in the offseason one year, but was cleared to play before the season started and never was able to get quicker, so that is probably not an injury problem. He also had a forearm issue I think? I won't even start with that. I think DeMarcus Nelson had far worse luck than Paulus with injuries, and he was still able to be a big difference maker, even when he was still not 100%. Henderson as well with his wrist. A wrist is not a good joint to hurt for a basketball player and when it healed to a good extent, G went nuts.
I am not bashing Paulus by any means, but I don't believe that his career was in any way derailed by injuries.

Oh, come on, that is so unfair. First of all, Coach K knows more about Greg's health or injuries than any of us do, so I tend to give at least a little credence to his statements. You're basically suggesting Coach K is lying or at least exaggerating, and it's possible, but normally I wouldn't assume that.

Second of all, just because you are cleared to play does not mean that you are okay. He had to have wrist surgery after his freshman year (and you yourself said that a wrist is not a good joint to hurt), and more importantly, he had to have foot surgery after his sophomore year, so even though he was cleared to play, he obviously still had something wrong with him. (And breaking your foot is certainly not a good injury for any athlete to have!) Moreover, during his junior year, when the team started to play at a faster tempo, Coach K said that they had wanted to play that way at the beginning of his sophomore year, but that they had to change plans once Greg broke his foot. In other words, they had to alter their whole offensive approach to slow down just for Greg's injury. You think that injury may have affected him, and the team, that year? And I believe he had some other injuries as well these last two years; he always looked bandaged up. Some guys are just injury-prone.

Finally, I don't know how Demarcus Nelson's injuries compare to Greg's, and maybe Nelson's were worse, but he was also physically gifted in a lot of other ways that Greg wasn't (long arms, foot speed, hops). Just because Demarcus's career was arguably better does not mean that Greg's injuries didn't affect his career. (Same with Gerald Henderson.)

So, sure, we can't blame every problem Greg had on his injuries (and to his credit, he never made excuses either), but to say injuries didn't really affect his career is rather unfair to Greg.


Sorry for the digression. On the original topic . . . Yeah, the high school class of 2005 was incredibly disappointing for us. Unfortunately, that was MY class. Excuse me while I go and light myself on fire now.

[dukelifer]

The very last thing I want to do is spend lots of time focusing on the sad state that the basketball career of a great person like Greg ended up as. So I'll just say if this:

"In terms of the type of college point guard you want recruited onto your team, you couldn’t draw up a better prototype. Smart and skilled enough to run an offense effectively in one of the most pressure packed environments in the NCAA from the moment he become eligible..."

"...he is going to rack up enough wins and enough assists to challenge all the great point guards in Duke’s storied history of terrific playmakers."

"...an outstanding sense for running an offense and finding the open man."

"His ball-handling skills are terrific with either hand, allowing him to use a nice array of speed changes and hesitation moves to get his man off balance and drive the lane effectively..."

"His court vision is superb and his decision making instantaneous, which results in at least one or two highlight reel passes every game; whether it’s threading the needle through multiple defenders, throwing a beautiful lob to a cutting big man, or finding the open man spotting up on the wing off a one handed no-look pass."

"Paulus has almost every pass you would want a point guard to have down pat in his arsenal, and he tries to use most of them every time he steps out on the floor."

"Defensively, he is smart, tough and active enough to be above average as a college player..."

"Few players in the country understand passing angles the way Paulus already does at this point in his career. His ability to thread the needle with highlight reel passes make Duke's halfcourt offense extremely tough to predict..."

is what you've seen on the court for the past few seasons then I don't think we're seeing eye-to-eye on very much (and we know where K's substitution pattern and the NBA's draft experts stand on the issue). I'm proud of Greg but sad that his career didn't end out as the experts (and the staff) expected. If you feel differently, c'est la vie.

This article overhyped his passing ability- but Freshman year, he showed a lot. He of course had much better talent around him that year. I am by no means saying Greg was a great PG but there were few at Duke that were without flaws. Maybe somebody saw something different coming out of HS, but he never looked like a world class PG to me- just a kid that would do anything to win. I expected him to be somewhere between Wojo and Duhon and that is probably where he ended up. So he met my expectations.

[whereinthehellami]

From the article, Sam Young at #49 turned out pretty well for Pitt. I could see him doing pretty well in the NBA. I liked his game alot at Pitt.

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

This article overhyped his passing ability- but Freshman year, he showed a lot. He of course had much better talent around him that year. I am by no means saying Greg was a great PG but there were few at Duke that were without flaws. Maybe somebody saw something different coming out of HS, but he never looked like a world class PG to me- just a kid that would do anything to win. I expected him to be somewhere between Wojo and Duhon and that is probably where he ended up. So he met my expectations.

Sounds like you had much more reasonable expectations than all the recruiting services and K. Kudos to you. The class of 2005 is probably a great reminder to keep our expectations in check, even for players that are predicted to be outstanding (as Greg universally was).

I do want to stick up for Wojo a bit. Greg scored a bit more (8.6 vs 5.4 for Steve) but as a point guard Wojo had significantly better assist numbers (3.9 with 1.5 TO's vs. Greg's 3.4 with 2.1 TO's). He was also National Defensive Player of the Year and an Honorable Mention All-American. I don't really think Greg is in the same class as Wojo, much less "between him and Duhon." Greg's numbers and game were a lot closer to senior Marty Clark (8.9 ppg) or Tom Emma (8.3 ppg) than Wojo or Duhon.