Ryan Kelly

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Nice article linked by the DBR today on incoming Ryan Kelly. In the article, they are pushing Kyle Singler to the 3 and think Ryan will see his time at the 4 (I know we don't really have positions, but that's what the article says). While Kyle can certainly handle the 3, reading this passage

He is an uncommonly good ball handler for a player of his size, and he can finish off the dribble and above the rim with ease. While Mason Plumlee is drawing comparisons to former Duke player Josh McRoberts, Kelly is more reminiscent of Blue Devil great Mike Dunleavy.
it would seem to me that Ryan, with his as yet undeveloped "freshman" frame might be better suited to the 3 and let Kyle play (and bang) at the 4, if they are on the floor at the same time.

[jv001]

Nice article linked by the DBR today on incoming Ryan Kelly. In the article, they are pushing Kyle Singler to the 3 and think Ryan will see his time at the 4 (I know we don't really have positions, but that's what the article says). While Kyle can certainly handle the 3, reading this passage

it would seem to me that Ryan, with his as yet undeveloped "freshman" frame might be better suited to the 3 and let Kyle play (and bang) at the 4, if they are on the floor at the same time.

Ozzie I was thinking the same thing regarding the inside play of either Kyle or Ryan. Kyle has shown he can handle the banging underneath the basket. Maybe the writer is expecting Mason to handle the #5 postion better than Zoubs and LT have in the past. From other reads I have seen that Kelly has very good ball handling skills and can shoot from long range. That sounds like a 3 not a 4. Well I can't wait until we tip it off. Go Duke!

[watzone]

It's no secret that Kyle will play the three this season and or will handle the ball a whole lot. It was a good read on Kelly whor seems to be getting quite a bit of attention of late. In fact, Bob Green has another article up on him here - http://bluedevilnation.net/?p=2303

FWIW, Kelly has been on campus lifting weights with Mason Plumlee.

[slower]

Maybe the writer is expecting Mason to handle the #5 postion better than Zoubs and LT have in the past.

I think there are a LOT of us who are expecting that to happen!

[whereinthehellami]

I think there are a LOT of us who are expecting that to happen!

expecting or wanting?

[Greg_Newton]

It's no secret that Kyle will play the three this season and or will handle the ball a whole lot. It was a good read on Kelly whor seems to be getting quite a bit of attention of late. In fact, Bob Green has another article up on him here - http://bluedevilnation.net/?p=2303

FWIW, Kelly has been on campus lifting weights with Mason Plumlee.

Great to hear that of both of them!


In a BDN interview last December, Mark Watson asked Ryan if the Duke staff had told Kelly to work on any part of his game. Kelly responded, “Yeah…continue to work on my defense. They want me to be able to guard smaller players out front.”

Sounds like they're planning on using him more as a 3... at least, a defensive 3 (given that both his post and perimeter defense need work and they told him to work on his perimeter D). My completely uninformed guess would be that his primary role will be to spell Kyle, and possibly play alongside him for a few minutes per game if he progresses well over the summer (maybe even at the 2 and 3 with a zone defense?)... I just can't see why we'd try to use him much at the 4 given we already have Mason/Lance and Zoubek/Miles as (hopefully) capable starters and backups.

[Tim1515]

On next year's team I think the SF and PF positions will be interchangeable. Think about the offensive game Singler played last year at PF...that's not a typical PF either. If Kelly and Kyle are on the floor together I don't think you'll be able to tell on offense who is playing what position.

On defense i think it'll be matchup based. Whoever would prove more capable of guarding a wing will be matched up at SF...but Duke switches a ton anyway.

[MChambers]

On defense i think it'll be matchup based. Whoever would prove more capable of guarding a wing will be matched up at SF...but Duke switches a ton anyway.
Be interesting to see if Duke switches as much next year. I tend to think they won't, with the slower, bigger personnel.

[Olympic Fan]

I will be interested to see how Lance Thomas is used in the new rotation.

Look, we all know that Lance is offensively challenged -- and after three years, none of us expect him to suddenly blossom as a scorer.

But he did improve last season as a rebounder and he brings an interesting defensive skill-set to the table. The fact is that physically, Lance is a 6-8 small forward who has been asked to defend in the post almost exclusively in his Duke career.

This year, he can present some options with sharing the 3/4 position with either Singler or Kelly. To me, such a combination would mean that Singler/Kelly will play the 3 on offense, while Lance handles the 4. But in most defensive situations, Singler/Kelly will guard the bigger players, while Thomas has the combination of length and quickness to guard even the best small forwards.

Of course, a lot of that depends on how much we get from Zoubek/Mason/Miles in the post. If that trio can combine to play close to 40 minutes at the 5, then Lance can play a role more suited to talents.

One final point. We really shouldn't get too hung on defensive matchups -- not after last season when Duke switched on almost every screen, forcing Singler to guard guards and our guards to guard big men. It worked pretty well, especially after Elliot moved into the starting lineup and there were no more "small" players to exploit on switches ... and with Lance getting more minutes than Brian at the 5, there were no big men to exploit either.

[jimsumner]

RE: those Kelly-Dunleavy comparisons. Dunleavey not only played guard as a freshman, he played some point. He also played lots of guard in the NBA.

Just saying.

[SupaDave]

http://www.fayobserver.com/article?id=327957

[slower]

expecting or wanting?

both?:)

[roywhite]

RE: those Kelly-Dunleavy comparisons. Dunleavey not only played guard as a freshman, he played some point. He also played lots of guard in the NBA.

Just saying.

Good point. I think a better general comparison for Ryan Kelly is to some of the European guys...for example, those that we saw in the USA vs the World Nike Classic (where they out-played and out-hustled players like DeMarcus Cousins and Renardo Sidney). Not ultra-athletic, but very skilled, solid fundamentally, and very good shooters.

Look forward to seeing Ryan on the court, and he seems like an outstanding all-around student and citizen.

[ACCBBallFan]

I will be interested to see how Lance Thomas is used in the new rotation.

Look, we all know that Lance is offensively challenged -- and after three years, none of us expect him to suddenly blossom as a scorer.

But he did improve last season as a rebounder and he brings an interesting defensive skill-set to the table. The fact is that physically, Lance is a 6-8 small forward who has been asked to defend in the post almost exclusively in his Duke career.

This year, he can present some options with sharing the 3/4 position with either Singler or Kelly. To me, such a combination would mean that Singler/Kelly will play the 3 on offense, while Lance handles the 4. But in most defensive situations, Singler/Kelly will guard the bigger players, while Thomas has the combination of length and quickness to guard even the best small forwards.

Of course, a lot of that depends on how much we get from Zoubek/Mason/Miles in the post. If that trio can combine to play close to 40 minutes at the 5, then Lance can play a role more suited to talents.

One final point. We really shouldn't get too hung on defensive matchups -- not after last season when Duke switched on almost every screen, forcing Singler to guard guards and our guards to guard big men. It worked pretty well, especially after Elliot moved into the starting lineup and there were no more "small" players to exploit on switches ... and with Lance getting more minutes than Brian at the 5, there were no big men to exploit either.
I was agreeing with everything you said until the last sentence which I think you meant last year which is fine.

This year, hopefully neither Lance nor Kyle nor Ryan get forced into being the primary Post defender, especially Lance who is smaller than anybody on the team except the only three guards, when you consider that Olek is only an inch shorter but weighs at least 20 more pounds.

Kyle is at least as tall and also weighs more than Lance and everybody else is at least 2-3 inches taller than Lance.

Mason with 6' 11" height and agility, Miles with 6'10" height and 230 plus weight and of course Zoubek at 7'1" 280 should be plenty of bodies to share 40 minutes in the post, with Mason available to do double duty as PF in competition with Lance/Ryan aside Kyle/Elliott.

as you said in the preceding several paragraphs before that last sentence.

[Kedsy]

I was agreeing with everything you said until the last sentence which I think you meant last year which is fine.

This year, hopefully neither Lance nor Kyle nor Ryan get forced into being the primary Post defender, especially Lance who is smaller than anybody on the team except the only three guards, when you consider that Olek is only an inch shorter but weighs at least 20 more pounds.

Kyle is at least as tall and also weighs more than Lance and everybody else is at least 2-3 inches taller than Lance.


Do you think Lance will be able to guard a smaller, quicker wing player?

If he can, and if Kyle (or Ryan) can also defend such a player, then we can perhaps play a few minutes of a one-guard lineup (as we've been discussing on the lineup thread), and we'll have the potential to overwhelm a lot of teams with our size for short stretches while also playing a lot more of the three-guard lineup than people think we'll be able to. To me, that would be a good thing.

If he can't, then our lineup choices become a lot more limited and either Lance's minutes will be slashed or he'll log some time guarding much bigger players. Personally, I think Lance's role will be a more important one than merely guarding smallish 4s and/or slowish 3s. (Meaning he'll spend a fair amount of time guarding either quicker wings or stronger bigs, or both.)

At this moment, in my mind the key to next season will be Lance's and Ryan's defense, and to a lesser extent how quickly Mason gets up to speed.

[CDu]

Do you think Lance will be able to guard a smaller, quicker wing player?

If he can, and if Kyle (or Ryan) can also defend such a player, then we can perhaps play a few minutes of a one-guard lineup (as we've been discussing on the lineup thread), and we'll have the potential to overwhelm a lot of teams with our size for short stretches while also playing a lot more of the three-guard lineup than people think we'll be able to. To me, that would be a good thing.

If he can't, then our lineup choices become a lot more limited and either Lance's minutes will be slashed or he'll log some time guarding much bigger players. Personally, I think Lance's role will be a more important one than merely guarding smallish 4s and/or slowish 3s. (Meaning he'll spend a fair amount of time guarding either quicker wings or stronger bigs, or both.)

At this moment, in my mind the key to next season will be Lance's and Ryan's defense, and to a lesser extent how quickly Mason gets up to speed.

As I said in the other thread's rendition of this discussion, I don't think Thomas or Kelly will be able to guard "2s." I just don't see a matchup advantage gained by going big, for two reasons:
1. those guys aren't likely to be able to exploit smaller defenders on the perimeter;
2. those guys won't have room to post up, because we'll have other big guys on the floor.

From the descriptions of his game, I think the advantage with Kelly is being able to draw a bigger player out on the perimeter (similar to Singler's advantage). I think both players will be better suited playing the 3/4 along with Singler.

I suspect we'll see two guards at all times, and a third guard for ~10-15 minutes. I think that is our best bet. Then, I think Singler, Kelly, and Thomas will have a three-man rotation at the forward spot, logging 60-70 combined minutes. Then, Zoubek and the Plumlees will get the other 40-45 minutes.

I just don't see going REALLY big as providing us an advantage. I think it creates too many matchup advantages for the opponent when they're on offense, and we don't offset that with much of an advantage on our end. We'll be able to be big at the 3-5 spot, which will be enough of a size advantage while minimizing the quickness disadvantage on the defensive end of the floor.

[Kedsy]

I just don't see going REALLY big as providing us an advantage. I think it creates too many matchup advantages for the opponent when they're on offense, and we don't offset that with much of an advantage on our end. We'll be able to be big at the 3-5 spot, which will be enough of a size advantage while minimizing the quickness disadvantage on the defensive end of the floor.

My post (in this thread as opposed to the lineup thread) was in response to someone saying Thomas wasn't going to be guarding bigger players next year. Because there are only three options: either he is going to spend some time guarding bigger inside players or he is going to spend some time guarding quicker wing players, or he's not going to play as much (which personally I don't believe).

As far as the advantage of going really big, you may be right. On the other hand, a couple weeks ago I played in a pickup game where all five guys on my team were at a height disadvantage. The skills on each team were fairly similar (my team may have been at a slight skill disadvantage but it was pretty close) but the games were lopsided (in the taller team's favor). The shorter team appeared to wear out, perhaps physically but more likely mentally. The shorter team had to work really hard to prevent open shots, because the taller team could shoot over them, but had a lot of trouble getting open shots of their own, because they had to shoot over taller players. The taller team got pretty much every rebound on the defensive end and most on the offensive end as well, until most guys on the shorter team stopped even trying for boards. And because there were so many biggish players on the court, there wasn't much of a lane for the smaller players to drive to the hoop.

So I think it's possible you may be underselling the advantage of being a lot bigger than your opponent, although obviously the quality of the personnel and the ability to stay in front of your man defensively matters a lot in this discussion. If Lance, Kyle, and Ryan are all incapable of guarding the other team's two (which appears to be your point) then Duke just can't go with that kind of lineup.

[CDu]

My post (in this thread as opposed to the lineup thread) was in response to someone saying Thomas wasn't going to be guarding bigger players next year. Because there are only three options: either he is going to spend some time guarding bigger inside players or he is going to spend some time guarding quicker wing players, or he's not going to play as much (which personally I don't believe).

I think Thomas and Kelly are going to probably play around 35 minutes per game this year at the 3 and 4 spot. I don't see either player guarding too many small guys. I could see Thomas guarding the 3 spot when he's in there with Singler, but for the most part I see them guarding forwards. I don't see either player guarding too many centers either, as I think Zoubek and the Plumlees will get that task.

I see the guards getting 90-95 minutes depending upon health and foul trouble. I see Singler getting 30-35 minutes. And I see Zoubek and the Plumlees splitting 40-45 minutes. That leaves anywhere from 25 to 40 minutes for Thomas and Kelly to compete at the 4 spot. I'd guess around 35 is most likely.

As for Thomas's playing time, I think it will be dictated by how he does compared to Kelly. If Kelly is the superior player, Thomas's PT will suffer. I think that Singler, Kelly, and Thomas will split the 3/4 minutes, and I don't see either player really cutting into Singler's minutes.


As far as the advantage of going really big, you may be right. On the other hand, a couple weeks ago I played in a pickup game where all five guys on my team were at a height disadvantage. The skills on each team were fairly similar (my team may have been at a slight skill disadvantage but it was pretty close) but the games were lopsided (in the taller team's favor). The shorter team appeared to wear out, perhaps physically but more likely mentally. The shorter team had to work really hard to prevent open shots, because the taller team could shoot over them, but had a lot of trouble getting open shots of their own, because they had to shoot over taller players. The taller team got pretty much every rebound on the defensive end and most on the offensive end as well, until most guys on the shorter team stopped even trying for boards. And because there were so many biggish players on the court, there wasn't much of a lane for the smaller players to drive to the hoop.

I don't think the comparison is valid. The lower the aggregate skill level, the bigger impact a size advantage can have (holding skill levels roughly equal). At the college level, I think quickness offsets size to a large degree in college. In pickup games, size tends to dominate on average because everyone plays well below the rim. In college, even your small players can play at the rim level. For example, see Villanova - we were bigger quicker (and more physical).


So I think it's possible you may be underselling the advantage of being a lot bigger than your opponent, although obviously the quality of the personnel and the ability to stay in front of your man defensively matters a lot in this discussion. If Lance, Kyle, and Ryan are all incapable of guarding the other team's two (which appears to be your point) then Duke just can't go with that kind of lineup.

Yes, that's my point. If Two of those three are capable of guarding 2s, then we could possibly get away with it. But I don't think that's going to be the case. Thomas and Singler have yet to show the ability to do it so far in their careers, and I'd venture to guess that they're more athletic (and quicker) than Kelly.

[oldnavy]

I tend to think that Zoubek is going to contribute more this coming year than most people believe. Although he isn't a prolific scorer and may never be, I felt like we were better last year when he was in the game. His size and his improved rebounding skills helped us several times over the course of the year. I just wish he would develop a drop step, or jump hook or some offensive weapon, so that he would be an option (maybe 3rd) in the half-court set... Kelly will be interesting to watch, I liked his shooting touch during the 3 point contest at the MDAA game.

[CDu]

I tend to think that Zoubek is going to contribute more this coming year than most people believe. Although he isn't a prolific scorer and may never be, I felt like we were better last year when he was in the game. His size and his improved rebounding skills helped us several times over the course of the year. I just wish he would develop a drop step, or jump hook or some offensive weapon, so that he would be an option (maybe 3rd) in the half-court set... Kelly will be interesting to watch, I liked his shooting touch during the 3 point contest at the MDAA game.

I think Zoubek will probably play the same 10-15 minutes per game this year that he did last year. With the arrival of the more talented Mason Plumlee and assuming some development from the more athletic Miles Plumlee, there's going to be a minutes crunch in the post. So while I think he'll improve, I just don't see Zoubek having a big increase in minutes, as the talent competing with him for post minutes will improve too.

The interesting thing is that this year we should have the ability to have a REALLY big body on the floor at all times. Between Zoubek and the Plumlees, there's no reason we can't have a 6'10" guy or taller in the post every minute of the game. That will be a far cry from when we often had to play the 6'6" McClure or 6'8" Singler in the post. And we will certainly have at least two guys 6'8" or taller at all times.

[ACCBBallFan]

I pretty much agree with CDu's last several posts other than I think Zoubs may log 15-20 rather than 10-15 but we could both be right if it's 15.

So more agreeing with oldnavy on that portion.

If Duke can get 15 out of Zoubs and both Plumlees with Mason logging 5 at PF either aside his brother or aside Zoubek, then Lance can play the McClure clone role rather than the role he was undersized to play the past 3 years.

Somebody has to gaurd the quick 3 man, and I agree Elliott is limited to 10-15 minutes, the lead candidate would be Lance, unless Olek has really improved his court awareness on each end of the floor. The rest of the time Singelr has to gaurd that quick 3 with both Plumlees there to step in if he gets by Kyle.

Not everybody has a quick 3 like Henson and if they do vs. Kyle there is a a mismatch at the other end too. They don't really pay the price when Lance is on offense, (not much different than UNC situation with Ginyard or in past years Jackie Manuel mostly a defensive player) but if he can neutralize a star perimter guy, OK for Duke to take its chances 4 vs. 4, since 2 of the 4 are Scheyer and Singler.

Back to Kelly, it's like it was with JJ or Taylor King, hopefully he more than makes up for his defense with his offense and I expec the mostly subs in for either Scheyer or Singler to maintian two 3 point shooters on the floor not necessarily at their position but along with other moves

[m g]

If Two of those three are capable of guarding 2s, then we could possibly get away with it. But I don't think that's going to be the case. Thomas and Singler have yet to show the ability to do it so far in their careers, and I'd venture to guess that they're more athletic (and quicker) than Kelly.

Thomas ended up covering guards a fair amount this year when we were switching all ball screens, and the reason he didn't have to cover them more was that teams didn't try to switch him onto their guards. There will be college 2s that he can't guard, but there will be plenty that he can.

As for Singler, I recall him being the reason why Jimmy Barron stopped connecting on all of those ridiculous shots at the end of the URI game this year. The only guys who burned him too hard when he switched onto them were the fastest, most skilled guards, a la Tyrese Rice. Correct me if I'm wrong?

That's not to say that Duke can play last year's D with those guys on the floor. We can't. But we have a great coach, and I think they could be serviceable in the right scheme.

[ACCBBallFan]

With coach K's confirmation that Kyle Singler will play perimeter this year, looks like he has decided Kyle is up to defensive task. Actually I donlt see that as much of a change on offensive end and jsut guarding a WF instread of PF on defense.

Since he competed with Jarryd Bayless in 1:1, I don't see it as a concern either, plus Duke will likely still switch on everything especially when Lance is the nominal PF.

Height will be a plus for the Plumlees and Kelly to make up for lack of foot speed, and Olek if he plays is not hurting for athleticism if he figures out court positioning at both ends of floor.

With ACC generally light on 3 point shooters this year, hopefully Zoubek when in the game will not wander outside the defensive paint, but either Plumlee playing in the post probably can.