DUKE vs. unc next year [Archive]

houstondukie

05-28-2009, 10:47 PM

FireOgilvie

05-28-2009, 11:06 PM

Plumlee.

I really don't know if Duke will be able to beat UNC both times; I'm guessing we split. UNC has much better bigs, I think Henson is going to be really good, and if one of our 2 proven scorers gets cold, we're probably not going to beat too many people. Also, I don't know if Duke has much of an advantage at PG. Scheyer can't create effectively from PG, and Nolan is a wild card, IMO. UNC has a few guys that can play some PG, but their success will probably depend on how much Larry Drew improves.

ACCBBallFan

05-29-2009, 01:38 AM

godukerocks

05-29-2009, 02:34 AM

Can't wait for the game, but it's too early to talk lineups and exploits. Let's focus on our non-conference schedule first.

whereinthehellami

05-29-2009, 08:48 AM

DUKE:
PG Nolan Smith - Jr.
SG Jon Scheyer - Sr.
SF Elliot Williams - So.
PF Kyle Singler - Jr.
C Mason Plumnee - Fr.

PF Ryan Kelly - Fr.
PF Lance Thomas - Sr.
C Brian Zoubek - Sr.
C Miles Plumnee - So.

unc:
PG Larry Drew - So.
SG Dexter Strickland - Fr.
SF Marcus Ginyard - Sr.
PF Deon Thompson - Sr.
C Ed Davis - So.

SG Leslie McDonald - Fr.
SF Will Graves - Jr.
PF John Henson - Fr.
PF Travis Wear - Fr.
PF David Wear - Fr.
C Tyler Zeller - So.

Its never too early to talk lineups. Get out your paper tigers. Like you said Duke has more experience but I think UNC has more talent. You kind of negate that advantage by putting in Plumlee ahead of either Thomas or Zoubek. Unless of course Plumlee is that much more talented than Thomas and/or Zoubek. I have a hard time believing that to be the truth. Its always hard for big guys too come into the faster/stronger ACC and make that adjustment without missing a beat. With that said i don't see how UNC keeps Henson off the floor. While he is not strong, he is elite level quick and long. UNC's frontcourt is just insane. I think Duke will take at least one game but UNC is going to be tough at the end of the year. Their potential is much greater that Duke's IMO.

miramar

05-29-2009, 09:06 AM

I really don't know if Duke will be able to beat UNC both times; I'm guessing we split.

If we split I hope that we win at Cameron. Duke has not beaten Carolina at home since 2005, which means that this year's senior class did not see that happen.

msdukie

05-29-2009, 04:56 PM

DUKE:
PG Nolan Smith - Jr.
SG Jon Scheyer - Sr.
SF Elliot Williams - So.
PF Kyle Singler - Jr.
C Mason Plumnee - Fr.

PF Ryan Kelly - Fr.
PF Lance Thomas - Sr.
C Brian Zoubek - Sr.
C Miles Plumnee - So.

unc:
PG Larry Drew - So.
SG Dexter Strickland - Fr.
SF Marcus Ginyard - Sr.
PF Deon Thompson - Sr.
C Ed Davis - So.

SG Leslie McDonald - Fr.
SF Will Graves - Jr.
PF John Henson - Fr.
PF Travis Wear - Fr.
PF David Wear - Fr.
C Tyler Zeller - So.

Notes:
- 8 of unc's top 11 players are freshmen (5) or sophomores (3)
- 5 of DUKE's top 9 players are seniors (3) or juniors (2)
- DUKE losses: Greg Paulus, Dave McClure, Gerald Henderson
- unc losses: Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, Tyler Hansbrough
- if you think DUKE has PG issues, unc has it worse; unc has more guard depth, however

Prediction: Duke wins both games

Where is Olek in this lineup?

OZZIE4DUKE

05-29-2009, 04:59 PM

It's golf season! But carolina can still Go To Hell! :cool:

houstondukie

05-29-2009, 07:46 PM

Where is Olek in this lineup?

To be fair, I should have put Olek in the lineup, but at the time I wanted to only include players that will actually get significant playing time this season, especially in the rivalry game. I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see Olek playing much next year.

mcdukie

05-29-2009, 08:29 PM

Way too early to tell how effective UNC returnees will be without the need to first stop Hansbrough, Lawson and Green.

Also too ealry to tell on frosh from both teams, though Henson is probably surest star.

Diary this for about mid January when more is known, and game is even then a couple weeks away.

I agree it is early, but fun, to talk lineups. I think you made an outstanding point when you said that we will have to see how effective some of the players will be without the other stars to worry about. I'm not saying it will be true for UNC, but sometime players look a little different when they are the ones in the limelight.

NYC Duke Fan

05-30-2009, 08:22 AM

To be fair, I should have put Olek in the lineup, but at the time I wanted to only include players that will actually get significant playing time this season, especially in the rivalry game. I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see Olek playing much next year.

Hope that your lineup stays the same based on another thread about Elliot Williams....It would be much different if the rumor, ( hope it is not true), is in fact correct.

Wheat/"/"/"

05-30-2009, 09:54 AM

Some Duke fans are way underestimating the abilities of Larry Drew. The kid is a natural point guard with some serious skills. Sure he had some freshman moments, and Ty Lwson would have made anyone look weak that replaced him last year.

I saw somewhere that during the second half of the season Drew's A to TO ratio was 3:1. That's pretty darn good and he was getting quality minutes against good teams.

The issue is depth at point for UNC, not talent. Some injury to Drew would be difficult to deal with.

He's a different kind of PG than some of you young guys have seen at UNC. Old timer's will recall Jimmy Black and Kenney Smith, and I see him coming from that mold.

His defense is solid. He's long and deceptively quick. Handles the ball well.

His biggest asset, as it usually is with all good players is court vision.

Several times last season I noted a play where his vision was well above average. Some were forced passes that tried just a little too hard, but it's seeing the opportunity that counts. He was learning.

He was the best player UNC had last year getting the entry passes in the post from the wing. And that's something that you will see even more of next year than you saw this year.

It's going to be an interesting team to watch, and my curiosity leans towards how Strickland (yet to see him) can step in at 2g for outside scoring than worrying about the point.

sandinmyshoes

05-30-2009, 10:21 AM

Hancock 4 Duke

05-30-2009, 04:42 PM

I think that we will win both times this year also. We are just more of a built team than UNC after they lost their top 5 players. Except for G, we have all 5 starters coming back, and even though we are thin on guards, they are very good guards and we have more than enough PF's.

DDB4208

05-30-2009, 05:01 PM

unc:
PG Larry Drew - So.
SG Dexter Strickland - Fr.
SF Marcus Ginyard - Sr.
PF Deon Thompson - Sr.
C Ed Davis - So.

SG Leslie McDonald - Fr.
SF Will Graves - Jr.
PF John Henson - Fr.
PF Travis Wear - Fr.
PF David Wear - Fr.
C Tyler Zeller - So.

I think UNC's line will be:

PG Larry Drew - So.
SG Marcus Ginyard - Sr.
SF John Henson - Fr.
PF Deon Thompson - Sr.
C Ed Davis - So.

IMO UNC's bigs are too good for us to sweep them.

heyman25

05-31-2009, 05:34 AM

If Duke's offense tanks against UNC I could see us having another shutout year. Coach K doesn't have a quick accurate shooting team next season.Duke has a zero margin of error with the personnel we have.

Wheat/"/"/"

05-31-2009, 05:21 PM

Kenny Smith? I do not see any Kenny Smith in the little bit I've seen of Drew.
Crossing the boundry, I actually think the kid reminds me a bit of our own Tommy Amaker.

Amaker is a good comparison, and probably the most similar player in style. And yea, he's not as explosive a K Smith was, but I do think you will see Drew push the ball much like Smith end to end. The kid did show he was not afraid to go to the basket as a freshman.

One thing about the Heels next year is you will likely not hear any talk about them being a weak defensive team. I expect them to be very tough to score on.

SupaDave

06-01-2009, 11:06 AM

Kenny Smith? I do not see any Kenny Smith in the little bit I've seen of Drew. Smith was a much better athlete. I can see the Black comparison, or Phelps. I can even see some McInnis, though Drew appears to be a much nicer person.

Crossing the boundry, I actually think the kid reminds me a bit of our own Tommy Amaker.

But it could be a nightmare season for UNC if Drew has a season ending injury. Ginyard and Strickland might be okay 5 minute or so backups, but as starters in the ACC?

Larry Drew = King Rice

Anyone remember that UNC team? King Rice really came into his own his senior year and Larry Drew looks more like THAT kind of player (kinda like our own recruit - Tyler Thornton).

http://vucommodores.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/rice_king00.html

SupaDave

06-01-2009, 11:35 AM

I think UNC's line will be:

PG Larry Drew - So.
SG Marcus Ginyard - Sr.
SF John Henson - Fr.
PF Deon Thompson - Sr.
C Ed Davis - So.

IMO UNC's bigs are too good for us to sweep them.

But who's the leader? I don't really see a lot of leadership on that team. With the team showing periodic lapses in effort last year I don't see who on this team will be the one to step up when they are getting their shoes untied by another team.

Davis' role would be expanding tremendously to expect him to step up and take over games ala Tyler. He'll probably be doing more rebounding of Thompson and Ginyard misses. Thompson was known for his disappering acts and will really have to step up his intensity. Henson will be good but he's got a lot to learn in a fast paced offense OR they just might be much more brooding this year with Drew running the show. When will McDonald get in? They've got a lot to sort out.

upstateny

06-01-2009, 03:24 PM

Ginyard might become the kind of leader that David Noel was in the year following the last title and mass exodus.

DDB4208

06-01-2009, 04:57 PM

But who's the leader? I don't really see a lot of leadership on that team. With the team showing periodic lapses in effort last year I don't see who on this team will be the one to step up when they are getting their shoes untied by another team.

Davis' role would be expanding tremendously to expect him to step up and take over games ala Tyler. He'll probably be doing more rebounding of Thompson and Ginyard misses. Thompson was known for his disappering acts and will really have to step up his intensity. Henson will be good but he's got a lot to learn in a fast paced offense OR they just might be much more brooding this year with Drew running the show. When will McDonald get in? They've got a lot to sort out.

Leader = Ginyard like upstateny said. UNC isn't going to repeat as champs but they have a lot of talent and in terms of McDonald, roy will find out when to use him. Roy played 10 guys consistently last year so he can figure it out.

Tim1515

06-01-2009, 05:04 PM

Henson will be a TERRIBLE matchup for Duke. I think he will be good as a freshman but Duke's lack of physical nature down low will allow Henson to do what he wants.

He will also, almost definitely, be matched up on Singler which could be as bad a matchup as he'll face all season.

SupaDave

06-01-2009, 07:40 PM

Leader = Ginyard like upstateny said. UNC isn't going to repeat as champs but they have a lot of talent and in terms of McDonald, roy will find out when to use him. Roy played 10 guys consistently last year so he can figure it out.

Huge difference between Noel and Ginyard. He played 10 guys last year and while they still won a NC, there were many times during the year where they were not championship caliber. Take away the obvious lynch pin in Lawson and they've got a lot to prove. NOW, you're telling me that a guy that can't take over a game and that has always been known as a defensive specialist is gonna be the team leader? I don't buy it. I think it's Thompson's team to lose to be honest - he will be one of the offenses' first options and if he doesn't get going - it could get ugly.

CDu

06-01-2009, 08:50 PM

I suspect that a split is likely. Duke should have the edge in the backcourt (due to experience) and UNC will almost certainly have the edge in the frontcourt. Davis is superior to anything we're bringing to the table inside, unless Mason Plumlee is much better than expected.

Neither team will be as good as last year, but I think we'll be fairly evenly matched. I think Drew will be better than some expect - not great, but not terrible. I think we'll have as much trouble at PG as UNC.

Wheat/"/"/"

06-01-2009, 10:38 PM

.....and while they still won a NC, there were many times during the year where they were not championship caliber.

I think it's Thompson's team to lose to be honest - he will be one of the offenses' first options and if he doesn't get going - it could get ugly.

Come on man...show me one point, let alone many, when they were not considered a championship quality team, from day one. You may be the only basketball fan alive to believe that about the '09 Heels.
They only lost 4 games all season, (3 ACC road games) and all were very close.

And it's wishful thinking to think the potential of Thompson struggling in a game will cause UNC's offense to get "ugly". They will still have Davis, Zeller, Henson and the twins inside. I don't see a team in the country to match that, let alone Duke.

Careful what you wish for...:)

Bob Green

06-02-2009, 07:28 AM

Larry Drew = King Rice

Great post! You hit the nail on the head here.

But who's the leader?

:confused: You completely missed the boat on this one...Marcus Ginyard is the obvious leader for UNC next season. As a fifth year senior, it will be his team.

You rode the pendulum to both ends of the spectrum with these two post. :)

Bob Green

06-02-2009, 07:34 AM

I don't see a team in the country to match that, let alone Duke.

Careful what you wish for...:)

Right back at you. While I agree with you that Carolina will be very good next year, I'm optimistic that Duke will be better. Perhaps not in January but possibly by March. Bringing in a couple of potentially solid frontcourt players in Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly might be just what the Doctor ordered. Barring a debilitating injury to one of our backcourt players, I believe the 09-10 Blue Devils will be a very tough out come tournament time. Will we be good enough to knock-off the Tar Heels? Time will tell.

SupaDave

06-02-2009, 09:24 AM

Great post! You hit the nail on the head here.

:confused: You completely missed the boat on this one...Marcus Ginyard is the obvious leader for UNC next season. As a fifth year senior, it will be his team.

You rode the pendulum to both ends of the spectrum with these two post. :)

Well I take it that you mean emotional leader then - just like our own 4 year senior this year. One of the things that made Tyler "special" is that he could put that team on his back when no one else felt like playing - Ginyard just doesn't have that type of ability.

Ginyard may hustle, he may get hype, and he may play hard but I just don't see him telling people where to stand or asking for a clear out (like Gerald would do this year - as a 3rd year junior). He will be figurehead more than lynchpin.

Bob Green

06-02-2009, 03:55 PM

He will be figurehead more than lynchpin.

I believe you are confusing leader and star player. If you had asked, who will be the star player? I wouldn't disagree with your assessment. A major element of leadership is controlled emotion or passion. The key is having the right balance of emotion/passion as too much or too little will not work.

SupaDave

06-02-2009, 04:32 PM

I believe you are confusing leader and star player. If you had asked, who will be the star player? I wouldn't disagree with your assessment. A major element of leadership is controlled emotion or passion. The key is having the right balance of emotion/passion as too much or too little will not work.

Not really. When I think leader I think of someone who can do it ALL. Lance is a great leader at times but he was never the team's leader last year.

If I see Ginyard do something this year on the level of G dunking on heads after Nolan hit that hard pick - then I'll call Ginyard a leader.

Bob Green

06-02-2009, 04:41 PM

When I think leader I think of someone who can do it ALL.

Leadership is the ability to motivate a group to work together toward the accomplishment of a common goal. Doing it ALL yourself is leadership's antithesis.

sagegrouse

06-02-2009, 05:09 PM

UNC has major question marks because of the turnover on the roster and in the starting lineup. But this will be a very talented and dangerous team that is capable of winning the ACC.

Duke has fewer question marks and -- maybe -- comparable talent. I expect Kyle, Jon, EWill, and Nolan to be outstanding players. It would be most helpful, but somewhat surprising,* if Ryan Kelly turned out to be the "real deal" and made serious contributions as a freshman. It would be absolutely wonderful if someone among the bigs -- MP1, MP2 or LT -- stepped out as a major force in the middle on both O and D.

*I have an experienced-forged, wait-and-see attitude towards any freshman at Duke 6-10 or over. Major college hoops is a big adjustment.

That said, I expect every game against UNC to be a toss-up. And I look forward to winning a few flips of the coin.

sagegrouse
'Only five months from starting my 50th season as a card-carrying Duke fan.'

gofurman

06-02-2009, 05:30 PM

it saddens me a little that w even have to have this conversation - when UNC wins a NC and then loses basically the entire starting rotation it should be a Duke sweep - but, as many have noted, it is a 50/50 at best. Despite losing the player of the year in the post they STILL have better big men... ugh

Wheat/"/"/"

06-02-2009, 07:10 PM

... While I agree with you that Carolina will be very good next year, I'm optimistic that Duke will be better. Perhaps not in January but possibly by March. Bringing in a couple of potentially solid frontcourt players in Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly might be just what the Doctor ordered.

First off, I agree that Ginyard will be the team leader. I see next years UNC team as a potential beast on the defensive end, and that will fit right in with Ginyard's mind set, along with the respect he should get as a 5th year senior.

I agree that Duke will be a much improved team, but I also see the talent level of the Heels, especially on defense, as very high.

My opinion...The Heels should take Duke next year. Who knows if that will happen, however.

Thompson is a very under-rated defender. Moves his feet well and is a big, strong guy who stays under control...if not overly aggressive.

Davis...Well nobody wants to be guarded by him.

Henson...From the little I've seen is long, quick and good timing. Shooters hate those type of defenders.

Assuming Zeller gets a little stronger in off season, we can expect him to be a force inside too.

You know Ginyard can stick on a guy.

And Drew showed some quality defense too last season.

Graves is the weakest defender on the team and even he has gotten better every year.

Watts showed some athletic ability and defensive quickness.

I don't know enough to comment on Strickland, the twins or McDonald.

Defense will define the '10 Heels team, and I do think they have the talent to repeat a national title.

Times change quick, don't they?

SupaDave

06-03-2009, 09:56 AM

First off, I agree that Ginyard will be the team leader. I see next years UNC team as a potential beast on the defensive end, and that will fit right in with Ginyard's mind set, along with the respect he should get as a 5th year senior.

I agree that Duke will be a much improved team, but I also see the talent level of the Heels, especially on defense, as very high.

My opinion...The Heels should take Duke next year. Who knows if that will happen, however.

Thompson is a very under-rated defender. Moves his feet well and is a big, strong guy who stays under control...if not overly aggressive.

Davis...Well nobody wants to be guarded by him.

Henson...From the little I've seen is long, quick and good timing. Shooters hate those type of defenders.

Assuming Zeller gets a little stronger in off season, we can expect him to be a force inside too.

You know Ginyard can stick on a guy.

And Drew showed some quality defense too last season.

Graves is the weakest defender on the team and even he has gotten better every year.

Watts showed some athletic ability and defensive quickness.

I don't know enough to comment on Strickland, the twins or McDonald.

Defense will define the '10 Heels team, and I do think they have the talent to repeat a national title.

Times change quick, don't they?

According to this - the score to game one will be 38-37 and game two will be an offensive bonanza at 46 - 42. Duke wins both. :)

eightyearoldsdude

06-03-2009, 11:51 AM

I think everything hinges on whether Henson can defend the 3 well enough for us (I'm a tar heel) to play him alongside two bigs. If that is true, then I think we have a good chance of splitting. But if Henson is stuck at the 4, then I'm not so optimistic. We are going to be really weak in outside shooting, but should have the best (certainly the deepest) frontcourt in the country. I also think Strickland is going to adapt to the college game pretty well.

In a weird way, I think Duke faces the same dilemma (or I would, if I was K). Will he play Singler (or Kelly) at the 3? In any other year I'd say no way, but with your shortage of guards I think he might have to. You have Thomas, Zoubek, and two Plumlees to man the post. That's pretty sick post depth. In any case, I would love to see Henson & Singler go up against each other.

kong123

06-03-2009, 12:40 PM

We will see, with G gone, the match up is more even than probably expected. Depends on how quickly the holes can gell together to become a good team and how much production K can get from the bench. If we have to depend on Kyle and Jon for more than 50% of the points, we may spend another NCAA tournament watching someone else compete for a NC.

Wheat/"/"/"

06-03-2009, 12:47 PM

I think everything hinges on whether Henson can defend the 3 well enough for us (I'm a tar heel) to play him alongside two bigs.
...Will he play Singler (or Kelly) at the 3?
...I would love to see Henson & Singler go up against each other.

Where will Henson play is the question in the pre season. I think it will be the three spot myself, with a rotation of Thompson, Davis and Zeller in the post.

And outside shooting is a question for the Heels, but the good news is rebounding should be a strong suit. A very strong suit. They will suck them up next year. Expect a lot of put backs.

Singler or Kelly in the post? Singler because he proven his toughness, but that's a tough call, because neither are post players. In the half court, both will have a very difficult time scoring with their back to the basket against Thompson,Davis and Zeller.

Everybody who knows me knows I believe the best teams win from the inside out the majority of the time. And I just don't see Duke with the horses to win the inside battle next season. You need a Boozer or a Brand type player, and he's not on the roster. Thomas and Zoubek are good players, but a step behind UNC's frontcourt.

Where I do think Duke has an avantage next season is in the frontcourt. I'm a big Scheyer fan and think he is likely all ACC this year. Williams also impressed me as a freshman. Nolan is solid as well.

And Duke always plays smart, something the Heels could improve on.

But I get back to... will Duke be able to score on the Heels?... and will they be able to stop the the Heels from scoring on them inside?

My opinion is that the answer to both questions in likely no, not next season.

Hancock 4 Duke

06-03-2009, 01:11 PM

I think that mason and Kelly will be hard to match up with against carolina. This could help us a little and also hurt carolina. Singler should play the 3 IMO. Here is what I think the line up should be.

Smith-PG
Scheyer-SG
Singler-SG
Williams-SF
Kelly-PF

NSDukeFan

06-03-2009, 03:23 PM

Where will Henson play is the question in the pre season. I think it will be the three spot myself, with a rotation of Thompson, Davis and Zeller in the post.

And outside shooting is a question for the Heels, but the good news is rebounding should be a strong suit. A very strong suit. They will suck them up next year. Expect a lot of put backs.

Singler or Kelly in the post? Singler because he proven his toughness, but that's a tough call, because neither are post players. In the half court, both will have a very difficult time scoring with their back to the basket against Thompson,Davis and Zeller.

Everybody who knows me knows I believe the best teams win from the inside out the majority of the time. And I just don't see Duke with the horses to win the inside battle next season. You need a Boozer or a Brand type player, and he's not on the roster. Thomas and Zoubek are good players, but a step behind UNC's frontcourt.

Where I do think Duke has an avantage next season is in the frontcourt. I'm a big Scheyer fan and think he is likely all ACC this year. Williams also impressed me as a freshman. Nolan is solid as well.

And Duke always plays smart, something the Heels could improve on.

But I get back to... will Duke be able to score on the Heels?... and will they be able to stop the the Heels from scoring on them inside?

My opinion is that the answer to both questions in likely no, not next season.

I agree with some of your post, but I will mention the things I disagree with and why. I don't know if you meant to say that Duke has an advantage in the frontcourt as UNC does have great depth there, though a lot of youth.

As to your questions at the end, I disagree. I think we will be able to score against anyone if we play smart, with a few more offensive weapons this year and the possibility of a more balanced offensive attack. At least I hope. Obviously losing G as a guy who can create his shot whenever he wanted hurts, but I like a Jr. Kyle, a Sr. Scheyer and Jr. Nolan to replace that offense, even at the end of the shot clock.

I also like our chances of stopping UNC from scoring inside a lot more than I did last year. With the Heels losing Hansbrough as a scoring option inside (no offense to Davis, Thompson, Zeller and the Wears, but none of them are likely to be player of the year this year, or first team AA) Green and Ellington to open things up from the outside and Ty penetrating at will, I think we will be able to crowd the middle easier this year and have added a couple of tall players to add to our post defense rotation.

I agree that we will again have difficulty scoring in the post against strong teams inside, but I don't have a problem with that as long as we at least get the ball inside to the post players more this year, even if it is mostly to be passers. I do expect a little bit more scoring inside though.

As always, it should be fun.

kong123

06-03-2009, 04:09 PM

The real key is, will the holes be able to score from the outside consistently enough to keep the other team from crowding the middle? They have players that are capable of hitting from three, but doing it in practice and doing it in the game are vastly different things. We know that Thompson and Davis can play with their backs to the hoop and we expect that Henson will be a high flying slasher, but other than that, the rest are question marks.

On the other hand, we know what Kyle and Jon can do from the outside. Its the ability to spread the ball around that will tell the tale. Also, I feel that the chemistry of last years team was affected by sitting Paulus at the beginning of the year. I agree that the best players should play the most, but when you are the emotional leader on the floor and have the history of creating game changing plays, then what does it hurt to start that player? Play him less but allow him to start. If for no other reason than to honor his efforts over the last three years.Perhaps it was a simple effort to motivate him and the rest of the team, but IMHO, it seemed to stall the teams momentum early and created controversy in the middle to the end of the year. Lack of confidence seemed to undercut his year last year. Again, just my humble opinion.

TemporaryInsanity

06-03-2009, 05:11 PM

UK fan here.

UNC fans have a right to be excited about their team next year. They have tons of talent. What would concern me, and I'm sure it concerns them is replacing the insanely productive 1,2,3 spots on the floor.

Last year, Lawson, Green, Ellington shot a combined 213/496 on 3s... 42.9%. That's sick. Then you look at their Assists to TO ratio... 435 assists, 191 TO. 2.3/1.

How can you replace that? You can't. That's the product of talent and experience.

Replace those guys with Drew/Strickland/McDonald/Ginyard/Graves .... UNC will be mortal next year.
How much does Drew improve and how good are Strickland/McDonald. We will have to wait and see.
Will UNC be able to shoot the 3 at a high enough % to prevent teams from sagging?

It would not surprise me if you guys swept UNC next year. Duke puts more pressure on the ball then anyone in college basketball. I can see UNC's youthful guards having trouble getting the ball up the court and feeding the post...

UNC really needs Drew to grow by leaps and bounds... and/or... either McDonald/Strickland play better then their already high 4 star rankings...

ACCBBallFan

06-03-2009, 09:48 PM

Singler or Kelly in the post? Singler because he proven his toughness, but that's a tough call, because neither are post players. In the half court, both will have a very difficult time scoring with their back to the basket against Thompson,Davis and Zeller.

Everybody who knows me knows I believe the best teams win from the inside out the majority of the time. And I just don't see Duke with the horses to win the inside battle next season. You need a Boozer or a Brand type player, and he's not on the roster. Thomas and Zoubek are good players, but a step behind UNC's frontcourt. I think NCDukefan addresses most of your post but let me commet on this portion.

Forget about Lance or Kelly or even Kyle as the primary post options. that is Zoubek and the two Plumlees who share at least 40 minutes with Mason Plumlee also possibly playing some PF too.

So it really boils down to will Zoubek remain uninjured and porogess during off season and how good will the Plumlees be.

But having to be the main post guys rather than a complement to Hansbrough may make Davis and Deon more mortal too, and Zeller hardly played due to the injured wrist early in the season.

So in addiiton to what another poster said about losing the three threats of Lawson, Ellington and Green, having no POY post player also makes it less of a front court advantage than many think at 3-4-5.

Singler and Scheyer gives top players edge to Duke similar to edge UNC had recently with Hansbrough and Lawson though not quite that dominant, and they only have to break even or a little less on other three and bench.

As usual the rivalry games will be closely and hotly contested.

heyman25

06-04-2009, 05:08 AM

CDu

06-04-2009, 08:20 AM

If Singler plays on the perimeter,maybe he will be comparable to Hedo Turkoglu as the facilitator with the ball. Zoubek ain't no Dwight Howard.If he isn't any better he should ride the pine. I am so tired of the Big Man takes time to develop. 3 years is up. If Brian hasn't figured how to play in the paint by now he has only himself to blame. Duke will have to play big,that is what the staff recruited.Why they couldn't find another guard is beyond me.

Glad to see the Track and Field coach can get the best. 2010 is the time for Duke to recruit #1 class.Why should UNC out recruit Duke for 6 years in a row.

Six years in a row? I'd say we got the better of the 2007 class, getting Singler and Smith compared to nothing. But otherwise, I agree with your point. UNC was the hands-down winner in the 2005 and 2006 classes, and early returns suggest they were the winner of the 2008 class. We'll see about the 2009 class - you never know until they actually play.

SupaDave

06-04-2009, 09:59 AM

If Singler plays on the perimeter,maybe he will be comparable to Hedo Turkoglu as the facilitator with the ball. Zoubek ain't no Dwight Howard.If he isn't any better he should ride the pine. I am so tired of the Big Man takes time to develop. 3 years is up. If Brian hasn't figured how to play in the paint by now he has only himself to blame. Duke will have to play big,that is what the staff recruited.Why they couldn't find another guard is beyond me.

Glad to see the Track and Field coach can get the best. 2010 is the time for Duke to recruit #1 class.Why should UNC out recruit Duke for 6 years in a row.

Tell us why you really mad son!!! Surely you are not comparing the merits of another sport to the bball recruiting. UNC? 6 years in a row? It's a wonder we even suit up to play those guys and we should be thankful that we don't play them 4 times a year right?

SupaDave

06-04-2009, 10:02 AM

A little something I found on John Henson...

http://www.uncbasketballrecruiting.com/2009/05/will-john-henson-play-small-forward-at.html

Will John Henson Play Small Forward at UNC?

Coaches make a lot of promises when trying to acquire a top prospect. Coach K is notorious for promising tall players that they can play on the perimeter at Duke, only to force them in the paint because the team lacks a true inside presence. Roy Williams (using the precedent set by Dean Smith) doesn't often make promises to recruits. However, it has been publicly stated in comments from Henson that Williams wants to use him in the small forward position, or to put it another way, him play “the 3.” Specifically, Henson has said that Williams wants him to be able to guard an opposing team's small forward.

Wheat/"/"/"

06-04-2009, 10:57 AM

The level of play between Duke and UNC will be much closer this year than last, no doubt. It should be a fun season to see how things work out.

A few points....

Han's offense is gone, but Deon Thompson's is there. Don't underestimate his offense. I think he is likely to be one of the top post scorers in the country, yes the country. With Hans gone he will become the first option under the basket, he is big and strong and will get his spot there. He has very polished post moves and a soft touch. I never felt that he fit that well with Hans sucking the air out of his touches. He seems to fit better with Davis, who is more active and doesn't take the same space as Hans did with Deon on the floor.

As for Davis...This kid is going to be a beast inside, I can see it coming like the 4th of July. There is a reason people think he might have been a top 3 pick this year in the draft, some said #1. Whatever, the kid will be a monster inside. Write that down.

Zeller...is more of a question. At a legit 7'1" he gets players attention no matter what. You can see his talent, but he came back tentitive. I like his soft hands, and seems to have some pretty good moves, but he has to be stronger and more aggressive, especially on the boards, to take it to the next step.

I have no doubt that UNC will be very strong in the frontcourt. Probably the best in the country.

Dukes frontcourt...

Zoubek is a good player. He strong, aggressive and has pretty good hands. I've seem him display some nice offensive touch around the hoop. And he's a legit big guy. His problem is twofold, first is he is a little slow, which hurts, but the bigger issue is he is the least smart player on the team. He makes way too many dumb basketball plays. Bad fouls etc...His court awareness is weak.
Duke will get some solid minutes from him, but he is a wash, he will hurt as much as he helps.

Singler...A very good player all over the floor. He can hold his own inside, but that's not his game. It hurts Duke to have him down low, takes away an advantage he has from the wing against most teams to a wash, but what other option do you have?

Thomas...He's active and hustles all the time. Solid instincts. Lack of size and strength hurts him in the post, not will. He plays small in there because he is against most teams.

Miles Plumlee...Juries still out on him. He has skill and some size. Needs some time and confidence it seems. Some kids just take time to develop, and he looks like one of them. He could be a surprise this year.

Mason Plumlee...Only saw a little of his game in those crappy HS all star games, but it was easy to see he has some attitude, toughness that Duke needs inside. He could rub off on his brother too, which would help.

Kelly...Have not seen him play. I'll wait to comment on him.

Overall, Duke has makings of a good frontcourt, certainly better than most, but a step behind UNC this year.

Hancock 4 Duke

06-04-2009, 12:31 PM

On the front page about the ACC Part 1, it said that Ginyard is one of the players that will be lost because of graduation. Is he returning or leaving?

Wheat/"/"/"

06-04-2009, 12:44 PM

On the front page about the ACC Part 1, it said that Ginyard is one of the players that will be lost because of graduation. Is he returning or leaving?

He's coming back, took the red shirt for injury last year.
But my understanding is he did graduate on time.

FireOgilvie

06-04-2009, 05:15 PM

As for Davis...This kid is going to be a beast inside, I can see it coming like the 4th of July. There is a reason people think he might have been a top 3 pick this year in the draft, some said #1. Whatever, the kid will be a monster inside. Write that down.

Zeller...is more of a question. At a legit 7'1" he gets players attention no matter what. You can see his talent, but he came back tentitive. I like his soft hands, and seems to have some pretty good moves, but he has to be stronger and more aggressive, especially on the boards, to take it to the next step.

I have no doubt that UNC will be very strong in the frontcourt. Probably the best in the country.

First, I agree with most of what you say, especially about how good UNC's frontcourt will be... but, a couple minor things. No one out there ever though Davis was going to go number 1 this year. Griffin was always going number 1. Davis was probably 3-6.

Also, is Zeller really 7'1"? I know he's listed at 7'0". I'm guessing he's more like 6'11" (everyone adds an inch). I've never measured him personally...

I wouldn't be surprised if Henson was UNC's top scorer next year. I'm thinking Davis will lead the team in rebounds and blocked shots. I doubt Thompson is one of the top post scorers in the country. Not with Davis and Zeller and Henson there to take touches (I know Henson will be playing the 3). I think Derrick Favors could average over 20 pts/game without Gani Lawal around (we'll see if that happens). I think Thompson will be around 15-16 max, with Davis and Henson right around 13-16 as well. Deon is also a bad free throw shooter (along with Ed Davis). Teams will foul them repeatedly if they get the ball down the stretch. I suspect Henson will be a very solid free throw shooter.

phillyheel

06-04-2009, 05:32 PM

FireOgilvie

06-04-2009, 05:36 PM

I would suspect (at least hope) that Thompson is a solid FT shooter next year. He finished at 65% and I think he was much better the second half of the season than the first. He has good form so being in the low 70s shouldn't be a surprise. I would hope Davis has been instructed as well to make FT shooting a point of emphasis this off season so hopefully he'll be much better this coming season as well.

I have more faith in Davis to improve his FT shooting than Thompson. Thompson has been pretty bad for the last 3 years. Either way, neither one of them will be knocking down FTs like Hansbrough last year.

shoutingncu

06-04-2009, 06:20 PM

Either way, neither one of them will be knocking down FTs like Hansbrough last year.

Nor taking as many...

ACCBBallFan

06-04-2009, 07:51 PM

I can understand on other boards posters are sometimes fooled by Zoubek's effectiveness, but on this board, Jumbo's +/- stats always refute that observation. Zoubs almost every game was one of Duke's best on + side and lineups with Z tended to fare better than lineups without him, despite his lack of vertical.

Deon was usually one of the best player in the country the first couple minutes of the game and then disappears.

Maybe that will change this year if he is the primary option. He benefitted by other team having to concentrate on the other 4 Lawson, Ellington, Green and Hansbrough and taking their chances on Deon.

This year he may command the better defender, with Davis more of a garbage put backs scorer. Henson has pitential to be very good if he can defend. Zeller has to compete with Deon/Davis for PT since he didn't even defend PFs very well

Seems pretty obvious Drew II, Ginyard, Deon and Davis start with that 5th slot varyig by opponent among Graves the only long ball threat, Henson the quick to the basket guy, McDonald, and the Wear twins, perhaps being decided by who defends WF the best.

Similar to Duke, UNC us short on PGs with I guess Ginyard or McDonald being Drew II's backup PG but more options at SG/WF and deepest across front line. So similar argument that McDonald may be needed to sub in at combo spots.

I expect the three guards and Singler to consume all 120 minutes at 1-2-3 with the other 80 until more is known being split 15 each to Lance, Zoubek, the Plumlees and Kelly with the other 5 to Olek.

DevilCastDownfromDurham

06-04-2009, 08:22 PM

I can understand on other boards posters are sometimes fooled by Zoubek's effectiveness, but on this board, Jumbo's +/- stats always refute that observation. Zoubs almost every game was one of Duke's best on + side and lineups with Z tended to fare better than lineups without him, despite his lack of vertical.

It may be that some posters are not persuaded that +/- is the be-all end-all measure of a player's value or effectiveness (in fact, Jumbo himself has discussed the limitations of +/- at some length). Z is a situational player whose numbers (4.1 points, 3.7 boards, .8 blocks) came in limited (11.9) minutes mostly in games where the matchups played to his strengths. Comparing him to a guy like Scheyer, who played out of position for major minutes just isn't fair.

I get that Z is really polarizing, with some folks writing him off completely and others expecting him to be a major part of our gameplan (Greybeard wanted us to build our O around him and last summer one person predicted that Z would be an All-American!) But his unusual nature, especially in Duke's history (who was it that predicted he'd be the best C we'd had since Gminski?) is overshadowing what he is: a solid, situational role-player and a really good student and person. Nothing more and nothing less.

Kfanarmy

06-05-2009, 12:08 AM

(Greybeard wanted us to build our O around him and last summer one person predicted that Z would be an All-American!)

I actually have thought this was an opportunity lost; sometimes Getting W's early seems to work against trying different offensive/defensive options before deciding what works best. I still think this could have worked and made the team even better at the end of the year than it turned out to be...and yes I think the team last year was a good one. Z's passing ability and inside presence created lanes, more open shot attempts for Singler and Henderson. Unfortunately he has never had the amount of on-the-court time to develop the footwork necessary to stay out of foul trouble...critical for someone with size and limited speed.

I would like to see greater focus on interior passing and assists in the coming year...which requires an inside presence who can pass and is a serious threat to score

BoozerWasFouled

06-05-2009, 12:57 AM

UNC will struggle with PG depth next year and that will lose them a lot of games, including both against Duke.

speedevil2001

06-05-2009, 04:14 AM

To be fair, I should have put Olek in the lineup, but at the time I wanted to only include players that will actually get significant playing time this season, especially in the rivalry game. I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see Olek playing much next year.

i dont think the wears will get much playing time...they are behind zeller and henson...and will graves is not much of a factor.

JDev

06-05-2009, 09:03 AM

UNC has the difficult task of guys that were all exclusively role players taking over as premier players. In some cases, namely Davis and Thompson, the transition will be smooth. At every other position the drop-off will be great. I know some are talking about Drew as much improved, but he is just as likely to be a guy that starts next year out of necessity and then never starts again, as Roy brings in better PG recruits. I think he might be a lot like a Quinten Thomas (I think that was his name). Only time will tell. I could be wrong and he could play at an elite level.
I also see guys like Wheat talking about UNC's likely defensive prowess. I think they will be a quality defensive team, but I do have a hard time seeing a Roy Williams coached team making defense their primary identity.
On the flip side, Duke has as many questions. How will Nolan and Jon handle the point? Will Miles and Mason be able to provide a presence in the post?
I see a split between the two teams. An ACC tournament pairing would be a toss up.

COYS

06-05-2009, 11:18 AM

I also like our chances of stopping UNC from scoring inside a lot more than I did last year. With the Heels losing Hansbrough as a scoring option inside (no offense to Davis, Thompson, Zeller and the Wears, but none of them are likely to be player of the year this year, or first team AA) Green and Ellington to open things up from the outside and Ty penetrating at will, I think we will be able to crowd the middle easier this year and have added a couple of tall players to add to our post defense rotation.

As always, it should be fun.

Duke also rarely gets credit for this, but despite our lack of size the past few seasons, it hasn't been big teams that have killed us, it has been teams with dynamic guards (WVU, UNC, Nova). K's teams are always one of the top in the country at denying the easy entry pass to forwards and forcing opposing forwards to receive the ball in poor positions. Certainly UNC's inside game has helped them in this past year's victories against Duke, but ultimately they were carried by their guard play. Duke may not have a lot of depth at guard, but Smith, Williams and Scheyer are all solid defenders (smith and williams on the ball, Scheyer off the ball) who will harass UNC's inexperienced backcourt and make getting the ball to the forwards difficult. Obviously, Henson is an X factor because of his outside game and his upside, but Duke has Singler to neutralize whatever advantages Henson gives UNC on the perimeter. It will be an interesting matchup, but I think that UNC's inexperienced backcourt will succumb to Duke's defensive intensity for a regular season split and Duke's experience will win out in a potential ACCT matchup . . . 9 months out and you can mark this down as absolute fact. ;)

ncexnyc

06-05-2009, 02:30 PM

Duke also rarely gets credit for this, but despite our lack of size the past few seasons, it hasn't been big teams that have killed us, it has been teams with dynamic guards (WVU, UNC, Nova). K's teams are always one of the top in the country at denying the easy entry pass to forwards and forcing opposing forwards to receive the ball in poor positions. Certainly UNC's inside game has helped them in this past year's victories against Duke, but ultimately they were carried by their guard play. Duke may not have a lot of depth at guard, but Smith, Williams and Scheyer are all solid defenders (smith and williams on the ball, Scheyer off the ball) who will harass UNC's inexperienced backcourt and make getting the ball to the forwards difficult. Obviously, Henson is an X factor because of his outside game and his upside, but Duke has Singler to neutralize whatever advantages Henson gives UNC on the perimeter. It will be an interesting matchup, but I think that UNC's inexperienced backcourt will succumb to Duke's defensive intensity for a regular season split and Duke's experience will win out in a potential ACCT matchup . . . 9 months out and you can mark this down as absolute fact. ;)

I agree that our guards should be able to force a number of turnovers from the heel backcourt, unfortunately in order to turn the other team over our players have to be on the court and both Elliot and Nolan tend to pick-up silly fouls. If they can stay away from the dumb fouls things will be fine.