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DukeCO2009
05-20-2009, 12:51 PM
As I was reading DBR's piece on John Wall, I came across the following lines:


Moreover, we think that after nearly 30 years of building credibility Coach K has earned the right to say that a particular player is worth the risk. Does it always work out? Clearly not - William Avery is a good example of the wager gone bad. But he’s an exception.

How was Avery a "wager gone bad"? He was successful starting as a freshman (remember the Kentucky Shot Volume 2 that almost was?), then averaged something like 15 and 5 his sophomore year on the way to a title game appearance. He never, to my knowledge got in any trouble while in school, and was drafted just outside the lottery. OK, he was a bust, but he's had a reasonably successful career in Europe. Since when does failing to pan out in the League make you a "wager gone bad", anyway? Using that logic, it's too bad we ever "wagered" on Amaker, Hurley, T. Hill, Langdon, JWill, Shelden, etc. Are people here still bitter that he went pro against K's wishes? If so, that's pretty petty, don't ya think? Avery was a valuable contributor to Duke basketball. I'd love to hear the rationale behind DBR's remarks.

Matches
05-20-2009, 12:59 PM
I think they were referring to his academic performance.

DukeCO2009
05-20-2009, 01:03 PM
I think they were referring to his academic performance.

OK, so he didn't make straight A's and go to all of his classes. Neither did most of us here. He didn't flunk out, which is good enough for me. I trust that he would have been suspended had his grades fallen below a certain level. He had obviously planned to go pro early second semester of his sophomore year, but I can't fault a guy from his background wanting to go where the money lures him. He probably spent more time in class than I did my sophomore year, and I turned out just fine. Not bragging--just saying.

roywhite
05-20-2009, 01:09 PM
As I was reading DBR's piece on John Wall, I came across the following lines:



How was Avery a "wager gone bad"? He was successful starting as a freshman (remember the Kentucky Shot Volume 2 that almost was?), then averaged something like 15 and 5 his sophomore year on the way to a title game appearance. He never, to my knowledge got in any trouble while in school, and was drafted just outside the lottery. OK, he was a bust, but he's had a reasonably successful career in Europe. Since when does failing to pan out in the League make you a "wager gone bad", anyway? Using that logic, it's too bad we ever "wagered" on Amaker, Hurley, T. Hill, Langdon, JWill, Shelden, etc. Are people here still bitter that he went pro against K's wishes? If so, that's pretty petty, don't ya think? Avery was a valuable contributor to Duke basketball. I'd love to hear the rationale behind DBR's remarks.


The other players you reference were 4-year guys, with the exception of Jason Williams who was a 3-year player and graduated.

I think the point is that Avery made a poor decision in leaving when he did; I guess that is still more an opinion than an outright fact, but it didn't work out real well with respect to not being in the NBA very long.

DukeCO2009
05-20-2009, 01:12 PM
The other players you reference were 4-year guys, with the exception of Jason Williams who was a 3-year player and graduated.

I think the point is that Avery made a poor decision in leaving when he did; I guess that is still more an opinion than an outright fact, but it didn't work out real well with respect to not being in the NBA very long.

Understood. Calling him a "wager gone bad", though, is silly. He was an integral part of one of the greatest teams in NCAA history. Without him, that team would not have reached the heights it did. He was the only true point guard on the roster besides Jay Heaps. No reason for DBR to throw in such a cheap shot.

Matches
05-20-2009, 01:40 PM
I think the point is that Avery made a poor decision in leaving when he did; I guess that is still more an opinion than an outright fact, but it didn't work out real well with respect to not being in the NBA very long.

That Avery was an NBA bust is really not disputed - clearly he was.

Whether he made the wrong decision in coming out - very debateable. He made several million dollars during his three years in the NBA. One can argue he might have developed differently/ better had he remained at Duke another year, but that's speculative. We really will never know whether he cost himself money by leaving early.

I've always understand that he was in severe academic straits by the end of his sophomore season, though, so he may not have had a real choice. Perhaps the academic straits came about because he knew he was leaving - I do not know. Kind of a chicken/ egg thing.

gep
05-20-2009, 02:03 PM
I've always understand that he was in severe academic straits by the end of his sophomore season, though, so he may not have had a real choice. Perhaps the academic straits came about because he knew he was leaving - I do not know. Kind of a chicken/ egg thing.

This is also my vague recollection... that he probably wouldn't have been academically eligible had he stayed. This is what I thought DBR was alluding to by making that statement... that his problem was academic, not basketball player, whether he stayed or not.

Of course, C-Well and Dockery were those with "good" results:D

DukeCO2009
05-20-2009, 02:11 PM
This is also my vague recollection... that he probably wouldn't have been academically eligible had he stayed. This is what I thought DBR was alluding to by making that statement... that his problem was academic, not basketball player, whether he stayed or not.

Of course, C-Well and Dockery were those with "good" results:D

Again, I see the academic point. I just don't understand why that makes him a "wager gone bad", because he was quite valuable to Duke's program and did nothing to cause harm to the univerisity.

johaad
05-20-2009, 02:41 PM
This is a similar question I have about McRoberts. A lot of people on here really seem to dislike him. I wasn't on the board at the time of McRoberts. What is the story with him being disliked?

SupaDave
05-20-2009, 02:54 PM
This is a similar question I have about McRoberts. A lot of people on here really seem to dislike him. I wasn't on the board at the time of McRoberts. What is the story with him being disliked?

You need to use the "search" feature and you'll get all you can handle...

Matches
05-20-2009, 02:55 PM
This is a similar question I have about McRoberts. A lot of people on here really seem to dislike him. I wasn't on the board at the time of McRoberts. What is the story with him being disliked?

Heavily rumored to be a negative presence in the locker room.

Poor body language on the court didn't help the perception of him either.

DukeCO2009
05-20-2009, 02:57 PM
You need to use the "search" feature and you'll get all you can handle...

I PM-ed him. I lived in Josh's dorm freshman year. I won't post what I know on the board because it isn't the place to divulge relatively personal details, but suffice to say basketball was not first on Josh's priority list.

johaad
05-20-2009, 03:00 PM
You need to use the "search" feature and you'll get all you can handle...

Yeah, I've tried it before. I found it difficult to sort through. But thanks for DukeCO2009's pm. It definitely explained things...

miramar
05-20-2009, 03:41 PM
There is one huge difference between McRoberts and Avery, irrespective of what some of us have heard from different sources.

When Avery announced he was leaving, Coach K was upset. When McRoberts announced he was leaving, Coach K was seemingly relieved. Maybe even delighted.

I think that tells you a lot right there.

Coballs
05-20-2009, 03:59 PM
I was about to start a thread about this very topic but DukeCO2009 beat me to the punch. I shared EXACTLY the same reaction to the Avery as a wager-gone-bad description. I would have preferred for him a longer career at Duke, but he was great in his 2 years. I've always felt that if he was given more of Wojo's minutes in the 1999 NC game (and if Magette played more in the 2nd half) we'd be talking aboout 4 national titles. And I was never aware of rumors of academic struggles or disciplinary issues, so what are the DBR guys talking about?

msdukie
05-20-2009, 04:10 PM
I was about to start a thread about this very topic but DukeCO2009 beat me to the punch. I shared EXACTLY the same reaction to the Avery as a wager-gone-bad description. I would have preferred for him a longer career at Duke, but he was great in his 2 years. I've always felt that if he was given more of Wojo's minutes in the 1999 NC game (and if Magette played more in the 2nd half) we'd be talking aboout 4 national titles. And I was never aware of rumors of academic struggles or disciplinary issues, so what are the DBR guys talking about?

I'm pretty sure he had all of Wojo's minutes in the 1999 NC game. ;)

As for the Avery academic issues, I've heard the same stories from people who took classes with him.

mkirsh
05-20-2009, 04:10 PM
To quibble a bit, Wojo graduated in 98, and Avery was the main option at point in 99. He actually played one of his worst games at Duke in the title game going against his childhood friend and defensive ace Ricky Moore. However, I do think that Avery might have had a better chance of staying in front of Wayne Turner in 98 than Wojo when Turner just destroyed us in the second half, and might have had another trip to the final four in that instance.

Also to consider is if Avery stuck around in 2000, would J-Will have had the opportunity to play as many minutes and play through his mistakes enough to make him POY and national champ in 2001? All in I think Avery at Duke worked out just fine.

Highlander
05-20-2009, 04:13 PM
I was about to start a thread about this very topic but DukeCO2009 beat me to the punch. I shared EXACTLY the same reaction to the Avery as a wager-gone-bad description. I would have preferred for him a longer career at Duke, but he was great in his 2 years. I've always felt that if he was given more of Wojo's minutes in the 1999 NC game (and if Magette played more in the 2nd half) we'd be talking aboout 4 national titles. And I was never aware of rumors of academic struggles or disciplinary issues, so what are the DBR guys talking about?

Umm. Wojo graduated in 1998, so Avery had ALL of his minutes in 1999. :)

Now if you're talking the Kentucky regional final in 1998, perhaps. But Wojo was a NDPOY and the heart and soul of that team, so maybe not.

Poincaré
05-20-2009, 04:31 PM
Back when I was a little greener, I was pretty bitter about early departures, especially those not approved by K. I am still probably young compared to the many old timers we have on this board, but I am older now. It just seems hard to hate kids for making stupid decisions. The only thing that now separates the early departures from the four-year players for me is the unconditional love the latter will get from me. No matter what Shane, Daniel, JJ, Shelden, and Demarcus do, the fans here will wish them the best. We wished the best for C-Well, Nate and Trajan no matter how things went for them. The same does not apply for the early departures. Deng was an "approved" early entry, but he will never command the same level of love as Daniel or Demarcus from Duke fans even if he blows up into a superstar. That is not to say we hate Deng. He's talented, nice, AND intelligent, but we just never spent enough time with him. We like him, but we may not quite love him.

I guess what I would really like to say is that we have enough players to love that we really shouldn't have time to be bitter about the ones that left early. How about a few threads for our forgotten Landlord Shelden Williams that don't pertain to his wife?

JBDuke
05-20-2009, 04:59 PM
...How was Avery a "wager gone bad"? He was successful starting as a freshman (remember the Kentucky Shot Volume 2 that almost was?), then averaged something like 15 and 5 his sophomore year on the way to a title game appearance. He never, to my knowledge got in any trouble while in school, and was drafted just outside the lottery. OK, he was a bust, but he's had a reasonably successful career in Europe. Since when does failing to pan out in the League make you a "wager gone bad", anyway? Using that logic, it's too bad we ever "wagered" on Amaker, Hurley, T. Hill, Langdon, JWill, Shelden, etc. Are people here still bitter that he went pro against K's wishes? If so, that's pretty petty, don't ya think? Avery was a valuable contributor to Duke basketball. I'd love to hear the rationale behind DBR's remarks.

It appears you either misread the DBR article, or you don't know about Avery's sophomore year attendance record.

The article was specifically talking about the fact that Coach K has earned the right to request academic exceptions from time to time, as his record of finding kids that might have spotty academic performance in high school, but turn out to be capable of doing the work at Duke - kids like Chris Carawell and Sean Dockery - has been pretty good. One time when the admissions gamble didn't pay off was Avery.

IIRC, going to class was not high on William's priority list. I believe he struggled to maintain elegibility during his two years, and once he declared for the draft, I don't believe he attended another class. If he had pulled his name out and returned for his junior year, he would have been ineligible due to a lack of progress.

On the court, Avery was working out pretty nicely. Off the court, specifically in the classroom, Avery was NOT working out. Thus, he was an academic gamble that failed.

Coballs
05-20-2009, 05:26 PM
To quibble a bit, Wojo graduated in 98, and Avery was the main option at point in 99. He actually played one of his worst games at Duke in the title game going against his childhood friend and defensive ace Ricky Moore. However, I do think that Avery might have had a better chance of staying in front of Wayne Turner in 98 than Wojo when Turner just destroyed us in the second half, and might have had another trip to the final four in that instance.

Also to consider is if Avery stuck around in 2000, would J-Will have had the opportunity to play as many minutes and play through his mistakes enough to make him POY and national champ in 2001? All in I think Avery at Duke worked out just fine.


Right you are. My bad, that's not like me. The old memory must be growing a little hazy. I'm getting my '98 Kentucky game and '99 UConn game gripes backwards. Avery and Wojo obviously only played together in 97-98. One of my issues with the '99 title game was that Langdon, rather than Avery, handled the ball on Duke's final two (empty) possessions.

VaDukie
05-20-2009, 06:30 PM
Everything's been said but not everyone's had a chance to say it, but I'll just add that I think Avery is one of the most underrated players in Duke history. Due to the circumstances under which he left he will never command respect even compared to other guys who left early, but I think he was a special player. While it's fair to say that Battier and Carawell willingly deferred to others, its worth pointing out that Avery was the #3 option on that 99 team.

BD80
05-21-2009, 12:00 PM
... I lived in Josh's dorm freshman year. ...suffice to say basketball was not first on Josh's priority list.

It is good to hear of basketball players that put academics first! :D

UrinalCake
05-21-2009, 02:49 PM
Coach K openly stated his belief that Avery was not ready to go, and he was heavily criticized for it. When Avery was drafted something like 14th, a lot of people said that Coach K was selfish or didn't know what he was talking about or whatever. As it turns out, he was probably right all along - had Avery stayed another year he might have improved to the point that he could have had a longer NBA career. Maybe not, but to me it sure seems that way.

I wish he could have stayed in the league longer but like many others I do appreciate what he did for Duke in his two years.

Edouble
05-22-2009, 02:22 AM
Everything's been said but not everyone's had a chance to say it, but I'll just add that I think Avery is one of the most underrated players in Duke history. Due to the circumstances under which he left he will never command respect even compared to other guys who left early, but I think he was a special player. While it's fair to say that Battier and Carawell willingly deferred to others, its worth pointing out that Avery was the #3 option on that 99 team.

Thank you. Avery is one of my all time favorites. Pretty much the smoothest player I've seen in a Duke uniform. Avery was an absolute stud during the 98-99 campaign, and the best PG in the country that season.

DukeCO2009
05-22-2009, 03:55 AM
Thank you. Avery is one of my all time favorites. Pretty much the smoothest player I've seen in a Duke uniform. Avery was an absolute stud during the 98-99 campaign, and the best PG in the country that season.

...yet he was a "wager gone bad". Because DBR is so against criticizing Duke players--even constructively--I would have expected the powers that be to have taken back their inane statement by now. K "wagered" that Avery, despite his suspect academic record, would survive Duke's scholastic rigor and contribute positively to its basketball team. He was right. Avery was an invaluable asset to the basketball team and didn't flunk out of school--how else can you judge someone in his position? The fact that he would have flunked out had he elected not to turn pro is a moot point; he passed all his courses during his stay in Durham. His plan was to go to the NBA, and he prioritized his 4th semester life accordingly--can you blame him? It saddens me to see DBR take such an unnecessary cheap shot. Will Avery was a hugely important asset to Duke.

Atlanta Duke
05-22-2009, 09:19 AM
...yet he was a "wager gone bad". Because DBR is so against criticizing Duke players--even constructively--I would have expected the powers that be to have taken back their inane statement by now. K "wagered" that Avery, despite his suspect academic record, would survive Duke's scholastic rigor and contribute positively to its basketball team. He was right. Avery was an invaluable asset to the basketball team and didn't flunk out of school--how else can you judge someone in his position? The fact that he would have flunked out had he elected not to turn pro is a moot point; he passed all his courses during his stay in Durham. His plan was to go to the NBA, and he prioritized his 4th semester life accordingly--can you blame him? It saddens me to see DBR take such an unnecessary cheap shot. Will Avery was a hugely important asset to Duke.

I do not blame any individual for maximizing their opportunities to pursue their long term professional goals while in college - the accountability rests with the adults making the admissions (aka wagering) decisions. William Avery had a plan and Duke enabled it.

The question for Duke is how to strike the balance between maintaining its academic standards as well as basketball standards and at what point Duke is to blame for admitting basketball players who are enrolled and then propped up for no purpose other than maintaining their eligibility to appear on ESPN 20 times a season. It is getting increasingly difficult for schools (e.g. Stanford, Northwestern, Vanderbilt & Duke) who want to compete seriously for academic reputations with the Ivies to also compete in football & basketball with USC, Ohio State, UConn and Memphis as the big time money at stake in those sports drives the costs of remaining competitive. After K retires Duke may be facing the decision the Ivies and service academies made decades ago that the two goals cannot be reconciled.

At some point the compromises involved in a university trying to reap the benefits of being a player in both arenas might not be worth the costs, which is why some of us were taken aback by the push to recruit John Wall, who may be a wonderful young man in addition to be being a wonderful basketball talent but apparently has somewhat sketchy academic credentials.

Chard
05-22-2009, 10:59 AM
I have a few questions after reading the thread:

Aren't the academic records of students off limits and disclosure of those records is punishable by statute?

If so, isn't there a lot of rumor mongering going on here about Avery's supposed lack of academic performance? With out sufficient evidence none of you know for sure about Avery's records. I thought that was against the rules here.

Would Coach K actively counsel against Avery leaving if he knew that Avery would be suspended?

If Avery is to be considered a "bad wager" wouldn't all of the early entry players be considered the same if they had not graduated? (My answer is yes but I don't think Avery was a "bad wager" and none of the others are)

If that is the case is Duke turning into just a basketball factory since 1999 or so?

Edouble
05-22-2009, 12:18 PM
...yet he was a "wager gone bad". Because DBR is so against criticizing Duke players--even constructively--I would have expected the powers that be to have taken back their inane statement by now. K "wagered" that Avery, despite his suspect academic record, would survive Duke's scholastic rigor and contribute positively to its basketball team. He was right. Avery was an invaluable asset to the basketball team and didn't flunk out of school--how else can you judge someone in his position? The fact that he would have flunked out had he elected not to turn pro is a moot point; he passed all his courses during his stay in Durham. His plan was to go to the NBA, and he prioritized his 4th semester life accordingly--can you blame him? It saddens me to see DBR take such an unnecessary cheap shot. Will Avery was a hugely important asset to Duke.

DBR has never had many good words to say about Avery. I don't know why. This is just something I've noticed over the years.

Probably every big Duke fan has a player or two, that for whatever reason, he or she wasn't crazy about. I know there are people that don't really like Dahntay, Paulus, McBob, among others. I've always gotten the impression that DBR just doesn't really care for Avery.

There are certain things that DBR likes to bring up repeatedly. For example, DBR loves to tell the story about the Sports Illustrated issue that said "Duke: there's a proud but forgotten name in college basketball". I've heard that tale about 10-12 times over the years. Of course, there's nothing wrong with telling your favorite stories over and over. One "story" or "item" that DBR used to enjoy noting was how Jason Williams came to Duke as a freshman and there was no drop off in point guard play from Avery. I've heard this several times on the front page over the years and it always really bugged me. Jason Williams was very good his freshman year, and better than Avery his sophomore year, but to say that freshman JWill was better than sophomore Avery is a joke. Anyway, my point is that there has always seemed to be a general downplaying of Avery's contibutions and ability around this site.

jimsumner
05-22-2009, 12:27 PM
"and the best PG in the country that season."

At the risk of being accused of downplaying Avery's contributions, this is way over the top. We're talking about a guy who averaged 14 points and 5 assists and was named second-team All-ACC.

Avery was a pretty good player at Duke and might have been a great player at Duke had he stuck around longer. But he is nowhere near an alltime great.

Edouble
05-22-2009, 12:39 PM
"and the best PG in the country that season."

At the risk of being accused of downplaying Avery's contributions, this is way over the top. We're talking about a guy who averaged 14 points and 5 assists and was named second-team All-ACC.

Avery was a pretty good player at Duke and might have been a great player at Duke had he stuck around longer. But he is nowhere near an alltime great.

For those that remember that season as vividly as I do, and I'm not saying that you do not sir, many felt at the time that Avery was denied the first team spot because of the media's hesitancy to load the ACC First Team with 3 Duke players.

Please tell me who was the best point guard in the country that season if it was not Avery? Baron Davis had pretty much identical stats to Avery: 15.9 and 5. Cleaves was pretty good that year, as was Scoonie Penn. I don't think it's unreasonable to say that Avery was the best PG that year. I do not think he was an all-time great, but definitely the most underrated.

Brand and Langdon overshadowed how good and how important Avery was to his team that season. Anyone else remember that NCAA game where Raftery almost had a heart attack watching Avery control the game (was it Temple?).

jimsumner
05-22-2009, 01:23 PM
I agree that a credible case could be made for Avery and first-team All-ACC.

But best PG in the nation? I could be snarky and suggest Al-Amin but I'll stick with Andre Miller as the best PG in the nation in 1999.

sagegrouse
05-22-2009, 01:27 PM
One of my issues with the '99 title game was that Langdon, rather than Avery, handled the ball on Duke's final two (empty) possessions.

Hell, I wanted Maggette to have the ball -- no one could guard him. And he wasn't even in the game!

sagegrouse

VaDukie
05-23-2009, 01:43 AM
It's also worth noting regarding Avery's lack of stats that a lot of guys on the 99 team had somewhat underwhelming stats because they were riding the pine in the closing minutes of most games because we were winning by 25.

If memory serves Avery was the 1st "2nd team" guy, meaning he finished 6th in the voting. A few less voters who were alums of the Daily Tar Heel and he would have finished 1st team like he deserved.

DUKIE V(A)
05-24-2009, 12:58 AM
...yet he was a "wager gone bad". Because DBR is so against criticizing Duke players--even constructively--I would have expected the powers that be to have taken back their inane statement by now. K "wagered" that Avery, despite his suspect academic record, would survive Duke's scholastic rigor and contribute positively to its basketball team. He was right. Avery was an invaluable asset to the basketball team and didn't flunk out of school--how else can you judge someone in his position? The fact that he would have flunked out had he elected not to turn pro is a moot point; he passed all his courses during his stay in Durham. His plan was to go to the NBA, and he prioritized his 4th semester life accordingly--can you blame him? It saddens me to see DBR take such an unnecessary cheap shot. Will Avery was a hugely important asset to Duke.

Loved Avery as a player, but IF he didn't go to class his fourth semester that's pretty disappointing. I want to win as much as the next guy, but I'd prefer that our athletes are willing to make strong EFFORT on the court AND in the classroom. I understand athletics may need to be THE top priority for some of our athletes pursuing professional careers, but IF Avery completely neglected his academics it does not reflect well on him, the basketball program, or the University.

Acymetric
05-24-2009, 01:06 AM
Loved Avery as a player, but IF he didn't go to class his fourth semester that's pretty disappointing. I want to win as much as the next guy, but I'd prefer that our athletes are willing to make strong EFFORT on the court AND in the classroom. I understand athletics may need to be THE top priority for some of our athletes pursuing professional careers, but IF Avery completely neglected his academics it does not reflect well on him, the basketball program, or the University.

I agree to a point, but as someone currently sorting through his academic interests and priorities, I can understand someone deciding "hey, this isn't for me, I'm going pro" and dropping it. Not what he should do, for sure, as long as he's on scholarship he should put in the work, but if its not where his heart was, I can't blame the guy for leaving.

In high school I had a teacher tell us that not all of us should try to go to college. Thats no knock on the students, it was an honors class and all, but it really just is not the right place for some people, and that applies to athletes as well. At least he had better opportunities when he left than some do.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-24-2009, 01:46 PM
Deng was an "approved" early entry, but he will never command the same level of love as Daniel or Demarcus from Duke fans even if he blows up into a superstar. That is not to say we hate Deng. He's talented, nice, AND intelligent, but we just never spent enough time with him. We like him, but we may not quite love him.

I guess what I would really like to say is that we have enough players to love that we really shouldn't have time to be bitter about the ones that left early. How about a few threads for our forgotten Landlord Shelden Williams that don't pertain to his wife?

I might be mistaken, but my impression is that the lack in interest in Deng has much more to do with the fact that you don't know a player after one year the way you do watching someone develop over four years. At least, that's true for me.

I loathe the NBA, but I watch Battier when I get the chance. Seeing him develop from a determined defensive-minded freshman into a lights-out offensive force who stepped up in every situation was wonderful.

Deng was a solid player, and I have zero bad to say about him, but I kind of lump him into the same category as Maggette. Sure, they are good players. We just hardly knew them.

If I kid you went to high school with for a year went on top become rich and famous, wouldn't you be less likely to follow his career than if you had four years of classes with him?

I would imagine that most folks here similarly have no "bitterness" towards early entries. Can't speak for everyone though...

gumbomoop
05-24-2009, 03:22 PM
Anyone else remember that NCAA game where Raftery almost had a heart attack watching Avery control the game (was it Temple?).

I'm glad you mentioned this, for I have a similar memory, involving Al McGuire rhapsodizing [as Al was wont to do, generally] about Avery. It's conceivable we're thinking about the same game, but more likely different games, for the quotation I remember is surely McGuire, not Raftery: "Avery is the best thing since 7-Up!" [Al's more standard line: "X is the greatest thing since sliced bread!" God bless Al McGuire.]

Anyhow, in my dismay at Avery's decision to leave early, I always "blamed" wonderful-but-wacky Al McGuire for putting the notion into Avery's head that he was ready. My recollection is that at the time, his decision was plausible but questionable, certainly not nutty [a la some players every, every year--what the hell are they thinking? Ans: "I don't wanna go to class, period."] but hardly a sure thing, either.

ricks68
05-24-2009, 10:03 PM
Avery was not known for his academic prowess before coming to Duke. In fact, I remember during his recruitment that it was a well-known fact that he had a tendency not to attend classes in high school, and that there was a lot of concern that he would not even graduate, let alone qualify for some colleges. He was known to not care about his studies very much at all, and when Duke started looking at him, he said that he would start trying to do better. Well, that didn't last very long after gettting to Duke. From what I understand, even before he declared for the draft, he probably would not have been eligible to play the next year. (Or, at least the fall semester.) It wasn't that he quit after he decided to try for the NBA, but that he quit long before that, and wouldn't have been eligible to play for Duke in the near future, anyway.:o

ricks

sagegrouse
05-25-2009, 09:13 AM
Avery was not known for his academic prowess before coming to Duke. In fact, I remember during his recruitment that it was a well-known fact that he had a tendency not to attend classes in high school, and that there was a lot of concern that he would not even graduate, let alone qualify for some colleges. He was known to not care about his studies very much at all, and when Duke started looking at him, he said that he would start trying to do better. Well, that didn't last very long after gettting to Duke. From what I understand, even before he declared for the draft, he probably would not have been eligible to play the next year. (Or, at least the fall semester.) It wasn't that he quit after he decided to try for the NBA, but that he quit long before that, and wouldn't have been eligible to play for Duke in the near future, anyway.:o

ricks

IIRC Elton, Will and Corey were really thick, engendering the nickname in the title.

Once Elton decided to leave (with the support of K), the others tagged along. I suspect that none of the three completed much academic work their last semester.

The economics have worked out well for Brand and Maggette, who will not depend on their education. But not so well for Avery, who will need a post-basketball career. He shoulda stayed for the degree and everything that goes along with it.

sagegrouse

SoCalDukeFan
05-25-2009, 03:09 PM
I get the following:

1. A player can stay in school, improve is play, and then get a higher draft position and more guaranteed money.

2. A player can gamble that next year's drafter will have fewer players better than he, stay in school, and, if correct, get a higher draft position and more guaranteed money.

3. A player can stay in school, graduate, get a degree, and have something better to fall back on if the pro basketball does not work out.

4 A player who is not mature enough for the NBA and should stay in school.

I do not get that a player will improve in college and have a longer pro career. Why would he not improve in the pros? He will not have academics to distract him from his basketball improvement.

I doubt if Avery's pro career would have been much different had he stayed a Duke for another year or two. He probably would have been drafted higher and gotten more guaranteed money but I think his NBA would have been about the same.

SoCal

A-Tex Devil
05-25-2009, 03:50 PM
I do not get that a player will improve in college and have a longer pro career. Why would he not improve in the pros? He will not have academics to distract him from his basketball improvement.
SoCal

I tend to agree with this as well (and maybe what I'm about to go into deserves its own thread because I am certain there will be disagreement). If you are good enough to make an NBA team, the NBA would almost certainly prefer you to be on that team, in the D-league, or in Europe to develop than college. I remember Mark Cuban saying as much several years back. He said something to the effect of: We don't have limits on practice time, number of coaches, how we pay our coaches. Pro players don't have the distraction/mirage of academics to deal with.

We love college basketball and NCAA sports in this country. I know I do. But we are the only country in the world (plus maybe Canada to an extent) that uses it's academic institutions as a minor league for its major sports. I won't argue against the idea that college may improve many athletes intellectually, personally, etc. I agree with that premise. And there are 18 year olds that aren't ready to handle the rigors of a professional lifestyle even though their game is. I'd posit most of those athletes would never be ready, though.

I think you are going to see a lot of high schoolers going to Europe. If they can handle it personally, I think you'll see that their game will be more improved than if they had spent a year in college. As this starts to happen, I think you'll see the NBA put more emphasis (and economy willing) more money/higher salaries in the D-league.

Even though we have this notion that players "should stay in college a another year." The reality is, if a viable professional minor league exists (which may begin to be europe), why are we maintaining this illusion that college is the best route for guys like Brandon Jennings, or even the kid skipping his senior year in High School? Or in Avery's case -- why would staying at Duke another year make him more likely to make it in the NBA? Is a year at Duke really going to develop him better than a full year of practice, one on one attention, and practicing/playing against the best in the world is?

I'd almost prefer that we evolve away from this illusion that a year in college (or any college) is needed. If you have a guy like Shane Battier or Emeka Okafor that want to get the degree too, awesome.

Hockey, baseball, tennis, soccer don't follow this model, and there is no public outcry. Hell, just about all European major sport getsthese kids in the club at an early age and develop them up through the ranks. The fact that college/NCAA purports to be the best model for player development is, to me, dated and potentially even incorrect.

sagegrouse
05-25-2009, 08:03 PM
I get the following:

1. A player can stay in school, improve is play, and then get a higher draft position and more guaranteed money.

2. A player can gamble that next year's drafter will have fewer players better than he, stay in school, and, if correct, get a higher draft position and more guaranteed money.

3. A player can stay in school, graduate, get a degree, and have something better to fall back on if the pro basketball does not work out.

4 A player who is not mature enough for the NBA and should stay in school.

I do not get that a player will improve in college and have a longer pro career. Why would he not improve in the pros? He will not have academics to distract him from his basketball improvement.

I doubt if Avery's pro career would have been much different had he stayed a Duke for another year or two. He probably would have been drafted higher and gotten more guaranteed money but I think his NBA would have been about the same.

SoCal

It isn't all a matter of draft position. Kwame Brown, the #1 pick in 2001, was a high schooler not mentally ready for the pro game. He was totally lost from day one. I think his career could have turned out differently if he had spent four years (or even two or three) in college.

I can also think of other players not emotionally mature enough to play 82 games in 30 different cities. They would be much better off with their own age group in college. Devil Momma told JWill in 2001 -- "Go pro? You've never even lived in an apartment!"

sagegrouse

devildownunder
05-25-2009, 09:36 PM
I get the following:

1. A player can stay in school, improve is play, and then get a higher draft position and more guaranteed money.

2. A player can gamble that next year's drafter will have fewer players better than he, stay in school, and, if correct, get a higher draft position and more guaranteed money.

3. A player can stay in school, graduate, get a degree, and have something better to fall back on if the pro basketball does not work out.

4 A player who is not mature enough for the NBA and should stay in school.

I do not get that a player will improve in college and have a longer pro career. Why would he not improve in the pros? He will not have academics to distract him from his basketball improvement.

I doubt if Avery's pro career would have been much different had he stayed a Duke for another year or two. He probably would have been drafted higher and gotten more guaranteed money but I think his NBA would have been about the same.

SoCal



I think you should "get it", and here's why: NBA contracts for rookies are slotted and capped. There is a limit on what they will make and they will almost certainly sign a contract that lasts exactly 3 years. If they spend the first two of those years working on development in practice (which they'd be doing on the floor in live games if they were still in college) then they have only one potentially productive year before they sign their second contract -- the one that has the potential to make them some real "i'm set for life"-type money. A player who is a diamond in the rough or who has only marginal or below-average NBA talent therefore runs a severe risk of reducing the value of his second contract. That's really the one they should be working towards.

It's a gamble either way but the risks are very different. By staying in school, they increase the risk of being injured before they can sign a pro contract but decrease the risk of compromising their chances to cash in big later. By leaving before they are ready to produce they almost eliminate the risk of getting injured before signing but they also greatly increase the risk that their second contract -- the most important one most players ever sign -- will be worth only a small fraction of what it could been.

devildownunder
05-25-2009, 09:47 PM
Even though we have this notion that players "should stay in college a another year." The reality is, if a viable professional minor league exists (which may begin to be europe), why are we maintaining this illusion that college is the best route for guys like Brandon Jennings, or even the kid skipping his senior year in High School? Or in Avery's case -- why would staying at Duke another year make him more likely to make it in the NBA? Is a year at Duke really going to develop him better than a full year of practice, one on one attention, and practicing/playing against the best in the world is?

I'd almost prefer that we evolve away from this illusion that a year in college (or any college) is needed. If you have a guy like Shane Battier or Emeka Okafor that want to get the degree too, awesome.



College isn't right for everybody and neither is Duke University but Avery was already at Duke and in his particular case, I think staying in school would have been best for him. Avery was talented but at his height his skills were (as we have seen) no guarantee of success at the NBA level. Therefore, to make it, he needed to be as polished as possible. He really needed to master the ideals of running a team at the pg postion, both offensively and defensively. Had he stayed around for two years, he chances of doing so would have been greatly enhanced. He would have been much more productive right out of the shoot and -- in my opinion -- stood a good chance of signing a lucrative second contract. As it stands, he spent the duration of first contract trying to figure out how to play in the league and did not make it. It's unfortunate.

Just a couple other related thoughts. Elton Brand left and I don't think there was any reason, careerwise, that he shouldn't have. It seems that he's a bright guy, so he would have benefited in personal development and enrichment from remaining in school and embracing academics but the real world is a classroom, too, so good for EB. He's made it as a player and appears to be well-adjusted. That's a great outcome and the only reason I was disappointed when he left was because I knew Duke basketball would miss him. Never thought it was a bad decision for him.

In contrast, I think Avery leaving was the best thing for Duke basketball and the worst thing for him. With Jason Williams coming in and the conflicts that would have created, I'm not sure Duke would have won the NC in 2001 had Avery stayed with the program. More talent doesn't always equal more success. The 2001 team had a completely different look from the 99 one. Who's to say how that unit would have developed if Avery were still there.

OTOH, to counter my own arguments for why he should've stayed, maybe he wouldn't have had the chance to develop his game as much if he had to compete for playing time with jason williams and chris duhon.

A-Tex Devil
05-25-2009, 09:47 PM
It isn't all a matter of draft position. Kwame Brown, the #1 pick in 2001, was a high schooler not mentally ready for the pro game. He was totally lost from day one. I think his career could have turned out differently if he had spent four years (or even two or three) in college.
sagegrouse

Now we'll never know for sure, but I imagine if Kwame Brown had gone to college, many of his flaws would have been exposed, and when he eventually came out, he would not be the #1 pick. Dude is still getting paid by someone, I think, (Memphis?) even though he's not very good. So I don't exactly think he's been an abject failure. It's not his fault Michael Jordan can't evaluate talent.

As far as learning basketball goes, practicing with a pro team with 100% attention to basketball (whether NBA, Europe or D-League) is better for one's game than college.

(edited to say -- that's not to say staying in school doesn't better one as a PERSON, but on the court, how does practicing and playing against college players improve your game MORE? This is all speculative, but I think people turn out about how they would have turned out regardless of when they make the jump)

Why doesn't anyone weep for all the 17-18 year old rookie league and A-ball minor league baseball players making 5 figures and living in hotel rooms all summer and small latin american apartments all winter?

A-Tex Devil
05-25-2009, 09:57 PM
College isn't right for everybody and neither is Duke University but Avery was already at Duke and in his particular case, I think staying in school would have been best for him. Avery was talented but at his height his skills were (as we have seen) no guarantee of success at the NBA level. Therefore, to make it, he needed to be as polished as possible. He really needed to master the ideals of running a team at the pg postion, both offensively and defensively. Had he stayed around for two years, he chances of doing so would have been greatly enhanced. He would have been much more productive right out of the shoot and -- in my opinion -- stood a good chance of signing a lucrative second contract. As it stands, he spent the duration of first contract trying to figure out how to play in the league and did not make it. It's unfortunate.

Just a couple other related thoughts. Elton Brand left and I don't think there was any reason, careerwise, that he shouldn't have. It seems that he's a bright guy, so he would have benefited in personal development and enrichment from remaining in school and embracing academics but the real world is a classroom, too, so good for EB. He's made it as a player and appears to be well-adjusted. That's a great outcome and the only reason I was disappointed when he left was because I knew Duke basketball would miss him. Never thought it was a bad decision for him.

In contrast, I think Avery leaving was the best thing for Duke basketball and the worst thing for him. With Jason Williams coming in and the conflicts that would have created, I'm not sure Duke would have won the NC in 2001 had Avery stayed with the program. More talent doesn't always equal more success. The 2001 team had a completely different look from the 99 one. Who's to say how that unit would have developed if Avery were still there.

OTOH, to counter my own arguments for why he should've stayed, maybe he wouldn't have had the chance to develop his game as much if he had to compete for playing time with jason williams and chris duhon.

See, I guess my main premise in all this, not said very well, is that we all want to keep the college game at as high of a competitive level as possible. But the landscape has changed, and I think we are going to see the talent level in college b-ball start to look a lot like college baseball. Still pretty good, but almost all of the wunderkinds are going to go straight to getting paid.

I think we say "this guy should go to school" or "that guy should stay another year" not because we really think going to or staying in school will really make that player better and better that players chances in the pros, but that because by coming/staying, they will make the team that we are rooting for better and the overall level of college basketball better. But as far as basketball development goes, I'm just not sure that's the best scenario for the individual in most cases.

devildownunder
05-26-2009, 07:35 AM
See, I guess my main premise in all this, not said very well, is that we all want to keep the college game at as high of a competitive level as possible. But the landscape has changed, and I think we are going to see the talent level in college b-ball start to look a lot like college baseball. Still pretty good, but almost all of the wunderkinds are going to go straight to getting paid.

I think we say "this guy should go to school" or "that guy should stay another year" not because we really think going to or staying in school will really make that player better and better that players chances in the pros, but that because by coming/staying, they will make the team that we are rooting for better and the overall level of college basketball better. But as far as basketball development goes, I'm just not sure that's the best scenario for the individual in most cases.

The point of my post -- the one you quoted before posting the above comments -- was to counter exactly this sort of criticism. I think William Avery leaving was the best thing for Duke because it cleared the way for Jason Williams and later Chris Duhon to play without having to share time with any experienced talent. I think it was just a bad decision for his career. If he had left when he did and transferred to another school, even a rival, I would still have called it a poor decision. In Elton Brand's case, his leaving severely hurt duke in 2000 but it was right move for him, because he was talented enough to go number 1 and already polished enough to be able to line up a big 2nd contract -- the important one.

We can disagree about what's best for player development. I think it's case-by-case, you appear to think it's always better to get out and start making money when you can if college isn't your fave thing, even if that means the d-league or europe (maybe I'm reading you wrong). But my ideas about for who should stay or go and when, as far as what's best for that player, aren't about Duke basketball's success. That's a separate question.

devildownunder
05-26-2009, 07:46 AM
As far as learning basketball goes, practicing with a pro team with 100% attention to basketball (whether NBA, Europe or D-League) is better for one's game than college.

I don't think this is necessarily true. Too many factors to consider to make this blanket statement for every player: What situation will give the player the most playing time? What will the talent level be like on the team the guy is on? Will moving to one place or the other require playing in a sytem/position that may not help the player down the road? Will the adjustment to the minor leagues or Europe, or hardships in college affect the player's focus on his game? What kind of coaching is he likely to receive under each option?

There are many factors to consider.

(edited to say -- that's not to say staying in school doesn't better one as a PERSON, but on the court, how does practicing and playing against college players improve your game MORE?
This is all speculative, but I think people turn out about how they would have turned out regardless of when they make the jump)

Strongly disagree with this. How can you possibly suggest that the time spent in development doesn't affect how players will turn out? The entire attitude towards player development vs. winning right now changes with the move from one to the other. Plus all the other factors I just mentioned. I think when you leave and how far along you are when you do plays a huge part in how much many players will develop.


Why doesn't anyone weep for all the 17-18 year old rookie league and A-ball minor league baseball players making 5 figures and living in hotel rooms all summer and small latin american apartments all winter?

I don't know, you'd have to ask the people weeping. My guess is that most of the players you're talking about the average sports fan in the US hasn't heard of and doesn't care whether their teams win or lose, so they're not concerned about their fate.

I personally think that society as a whole would be far better if all athletes valued their education a little more and I think the ones who wash out in baseball are a shame because their talent could have given many of them the avenue to a safety net, but I'm not here to impose my prejudices on them. Every player's case is different. That's how you should look at it if you're really trying to think of what's best for the player.

A-Tex Devil
05-26-2009, 09:37 AM
Strongly disagree with this. How can you possibly suggest that the time spent in development doesn't affect how players will turn out? The entire attitude towards player development vs. winning right now changes with the move from one to the other. Plus all the other factors I just mentioned. I think when you leave and how far along you are when you do plays a huge part in how much many players will develop.

Obviously this can never be known and we would be arguing hypotheticals, but I just can't think of a single case where someone stayed in school and it clearly helped them have a better NBA career than if they had left early. Better draft position, maybe -- although it seems draft position usually gets worse the longer you stay -- but would their pro career actually have been any different? Maybe Steph Curry will bear this out since he got to play point last year. If a player WANTS to stay in school, then awesome. I have ZERO problem with that in any case (unless it's a Tarheel). But I'm not sure it's ever a mistake to leave early unless the player was truly going to graduate and has no shot at a professional basketball career.

IMHO, if players are going to make it, they'll find a way, and another year of college isn't going to make or break a career. The players that are good enough to play in the NBA make it, regardless if their path follows Shane Battier, Kobe Bryant or Chris "Birdman" Anderson.


I don't know, you'd have to ask the people weeping. My guess is that most of the players you're talking about the average sports fan in the US hasn't heard of and doesn't care whether their teams win or lose, so they're not concerned about their fate.
I personally think that society as a whole would be far better if all athletes valued their education a little more and I think the ones who wash out in baseball are a shame because their talent could have given many of them the avenue to a safety net, but I'm not here to impose my prejudices on them. Every player's case is different. That's how you should look at it if you're really trying to think of what's best for the player.

Fair enough on the education piece, and maybe that's an advantage to our development system. The bold part is important to note, though. I think that's the underlying reason people take offense when basketball players leave early, under the guise that it's in the player's best interest. But there is not a lot of difference between what a kid coming out of high school to the NBA chooses to do and baseball/hockey/soccer players.

sagegrouse
05-26-2009, 11:38 AM
Now we'll never know for sure, but I imagine if Kwame Brown had gone to college, many of his flaws would have been exposed, and when he eventually came out, he would not be the #1 pick. Dude is still getting paid by someone, I think, (Memphis?) even though he's not very good. So I don't exactly think he's been an abject failure. It's not his fault Michael Jordan can't evaluate talent.

As far as learning basketball goes, practicing with a pro team with 100% attention to basketball (whether NBA, Europe or D-League) is better for one's game than college.

(edited to say -- that's not to say staying in school doesn't better one as a PERSON, but on the court, how does practicing and playing against college players improve your game MORE? This is all speculative, but I think people turn out about how they would have turned out regardless of when they make the jump)

Why doesn't anyone weep for all the 17-18 year old rookie league and A-ball minor league baseball players making 5 figures and living in hotel rooms all summer and small latin american apartments all winter?


Let me pose the question differently, to clarify our area of disagreement. "Should a player for basketball reasons say no to the NBA, even if he were to be drafted in a high position?"

You seem to say "no," the player should always go, because, in effect, the draft position is the coin of the realm and is a true expression of the basketball value of the player. And as you said, devoting 100% of one's time to a pro basketball career would be better than playing at college with diverse other interests, such as academics.

I say yes. A player, particularly a high school player, can suffer in terms of his basketball future. IMHO (with the sagegrouse, the "H" is always silent) here's why:

1. The kid is not mentally ready for a much faster and more complex game. Hoops at a high level is mental as well as physical. The world's smartest young man or woman, who had absorbed everything thrown at them as a teenager, would not be helped by skipping college and grad school and going directly to a university faculty.

2. The physical is also important. A young player not strong enough to compete is not going to get much out of the experience. Then why would he be drafted? Teams make mistakes all the time. The player and his parents should make an independent decision.

3. The support group on the college basketball team is underestimated. (Now that Obama is president, I can use the work as written.) There are serious players in the same age range and a really good team concept at the college level. The good coaches are interested in developing "people" not just basketball players. This makes a person a better basketball player.

4. In the NBA there is no peer group for a 19YO. Consequently, there are unattractive options: playing electronic games alone in an apartment or hotel room or hanging out with childhood friends who have nothing better to do and who will be a liability, not an asset. (I know, I know. But Lebron James and Dwight Howard really are different.)

5. Just as in the case of the boy genius cited above, there is something to be said for checking boxes at every level. I grew up in era when many kids skipped grades in school. Some could easily do the work at the higher level; but few of them had the same total school experience.

6. My other argument is a life experience one, not a basketball one, so it doesn't really belong in this debate: players with an education and who have had the chance to be celebrated (All-American, e.g.) and to make a zillion public appearances (JJ, Hansbrough, e.g.) are on a much better footing for dealing with the money and experiences in pro basketball and will have a more interesting and rewarding life. I.e., I am an apologist for higher education.

You are welcome to disagree, and for most players you may be right -- the projected draft choice is a true expression of long-term value -- but I don't think that is true for a lot of kids.

sagegrouse

Edouble
05-26-2009, 02:54 PM
I'm glad you mentioned this, for I have a similar memory, involving Al McGuire rhapsodizing [as Al was wont to do, generally] about Avery. It's conceivable we're thinking about the same game, but more likely different games, for the quotation I remember is surely McGuire, not Raftery: "Avery is the best thing since 7-Up!" [Al's more standard line: "X is the greatest thing since sliced bread!" God bless Al McGuire.]

Anyhow, in my dismay at Avery's decision to leave early, I always "blamed" wonderful-but-wacky Al McGuire for putting the notion into Avery's head that he was ready. My recollection is that at the time, his decision was plausible but questionable, certainly not nutty [a la some players every, every year--what the hell are they thinking? Ans: "I don't wanna go to class, period."] but hardly a sure thing, either.

Oops, no, we are thinking about the same game. It was McGuire I was thinking of. I'm pretty sure it was our game against Temple in the NCAAs.

A-Tex Devil
05-26-2009, 03:33 PM
You are welcome to disagree, and for most players you may be right -- the projected draft choice is a true expression of long-term value -- but I don't think that is true for a lot of kids.

sagegrouse

I apologize -- I haven't made my point very well at all because it is less about money and draft position (although that plays a role) and more about the macro level of player development in USA Basketball and what is best for players who really would rather not take the step of going to college if they didn't have to (see virtually every 1-2 year player). This is an issue I've thought about quite a lot since the high school junior decided to go to Europe (and I don't mind his decision a bit), and it touches on a lot of areas.

I believe these players jumping to Europe (like high school to the NBA and underclassmen to NBA before that, which is why the Avery discussion prompted my post) is just the tip of the iceberg. And it really rankles me when people immediately claim, for instance, that Brandon Jennings "made a mistake" or Avery "made a mistake." The European development systems have been superior to the AAU/college route for many years now and allowed other countries to catch up to us in basketball. I think USA Basketball and the NBA want to and should set up a similar pipeline for those kids for whom college b-ball is an unwanted stepping stone for bigger things. But there is this unspoken "cooperation" between the NBA and the NCAA right now which seems to be holding this next step back.

Why are we so much more worried/angry about these 18 year old American basketball players than other 18 year old athletes? Is it because they are making a mistake, or because the threat of another potential pipeline to the NBA diluting the college game? It's OK if it's the latter, but it shouldn't be projected on these kids as if THEY are screwing everything up. College will still be the best bet for many, many great players, but the landscape is changing. The D-league is a GOOD thing. I'd even say 18 year olds wanting to spend a year or 2 in Europe is a GOOD thing (at least it's not a BAD thing). It may not all be peaches and cream all the time, but it's their choice. If 18 year old Ricky Rubio can play in the NBA next year, then Johnny Five-Star can play in Italy. More power to you and I'm rooting for you.

DUKIE V(A)
05-26-2009, 09:55 PM
Here are the 3 main reasons why I think it is often better for players to develop an extra year or two in college than leaving school early to play in the NBA (I agree with Sagegrouse's views posted a few posts earlier):

1. Confidence. By staying in school, many of these players are the stars and focal points of their teams, whereas on an NBA roster they are often after-thoughts even if they are as talented as the more experienced players ahead of them. Being THE MAN or one of the main guys for several years in college gives a player the confidence he needs to develop into the player they can be. Guys like Battier, JJ, Laett, etc. no doubt benefitted from being THE MAN at Duke. They likely got the lion's share of coaching attention from a talented staff rather than a smaller amount from a likely less talented core of NBA Assistants. I think this extra seasoning can never hurt a player's development. Grant Hill could have left any time in college but it seemed to have worked out just fine for him to stay. Whereas Coach K, Collins, Wojo, James can give every last drop of their expertise to Singler next year, it is doubtful even the great Phil Jackson would spend near as much time developing an early entry Singler when he has to worry about designing new ways to get Kobe, Gasol, Odom, etc. the ball and figure out a way to stop the likes of Carmelo, D-Wade, James, etc.

2. On the Job Training. Staying in school allows you to develop your basketball skills ON THE COURT DURING GAME PRESSURE SITUATIONS against very good competition. Sure the competition isn't as good as the NBA but if you are barely playing in the NBA you aren't going to get much "on the job" experience. Miss a couple shots in the NBA and/or allow a couple easy hoops and you may not see the court for a week. In college, they pat you on the butt and say "Keep Shooting!"

While many of the top European Pro teams in the stronger countries are superior to college teams due to experience and physical strength, I would argue that this is not the best place to develop as an 18, 19, 20 year old. The playing style and culture is entirely different than the NBA (whereas college is less different) and it would take an extremely mature kid to make it in that envrionment. Plus, no matter how good you are, you can easily be frozen out of games and disrespected by guys who have "paid their dues." Plus, the crowds in Europe are often unforgiving of poor performance. When I was in high school, I had the opportunity to talk a good deal with Larry Spriggs (former Laker) and Linton Townes (former Spur) who played for Real Madrid in the late 80s and they talked about how difficult it was to adjust to the European culture, style of play, and fit in with coaches/teammates given the language barrier. These guys were grown men who had already experienced lots of NBA pressure and in the case of Spriggs was in the rotation of at least one Magic/Worthy/Jabbar title run. These guys also had good famiuly support systems. Imagine a kid straight out of high school or after a year in college. Just a little bit different.

3. Physical and Mental Maturation. Being mature on and off the court is often as important as physical talent in determining one's success. There is a reason baseball players aren't rushed to the Majors even when they have more talent than some of the guys on the Major League Roster. They need time to develop physically and mentally and need on the job training. I don't know about you all but I was a much better student by the time I was a senior at Duke than when I started even though I was no smarter. Similarly, I think in general a three or four year college player is much better able to take advantage of the coaching they receive than earlier in their high school or college careers. If any of you have coached a youth sport you can clearly see the amazing talent in some of the younger players, but you quick realize if they are moved up too fast by over-eager parents they are easily exposed by less talented but more mature/experienced kids. I think the same lesson applies to guys that go to the NBA before they are ready. They get exposed and some lose their confidence and the confidence of their coaches who are always looking for the next player to take a shot at. The NBA is a nasty business, whereas most colleges work hard with already established star players. (Unfortunately, with what's going on with Kentucky and other programs I can't justify making a stronger statement than this about the college programs.)

Anyway, just my 2 cents.

SoCalDukeFan
05-27-2009, 01:09 AM
Kobe, LeBron and Dwight Howard are 3 of the best, if not the 3 best, players in the NBA. None went to college.

There are players who develop in college and are much better when they leave than when they got there. My guess is that Tim Duncan is a better pro player now than if he had not gone to college. I think they are few and far between and mostly players who were inexperienced or who developed physically in college. (I think David Robinson grew several inches at Navy.)

Avery had played a lot of basketball. I really doubt if leaving early hurt his pro career. Maybe his draft position but not his career.

SoCal

DUKIE V(A)
05-27-2009, 12:37 PM
There are always exceptions to the rule...Kobe, LeBron, Howard, KG, etc. However, I stand by my view that most mere mortals are better off developing their games in college for three or four years. There are plenty of high draft picks out of high school or after a year or two in college who never reached their potential -- for whatever the reason. I think the argument can be made that some of these players would have had more successful and longer NBA careers had they developed themselves and their games in college or at least stuck around an extra year or two. I am not sure that anyone hurt ever hurt their game by leaving late (although some undoubtedly have failed to make as much money as they could have by being drafted on their potential as a younger player). We will never know about Will Avery, but I would like to think he would have been more successful in the NBA with two more years at Duke (assuming he had taken care of his academics).

johaad
05-27-2009, 02:46 PM
Kobe, LeBron and Dwight Howard are 3 of the best, if not the 3 best, players in the NBA. None went to college.


SoCal

But don't forget the other guy who fits in that category, Dwayne Wade. And he did go to college.