Starting Line Up 2009-10

[durhamjets33]

Now that the whole John Wall saga is over, I was just curious as to what our starting five/team would look like next year.

C:
PF:
SF:
SG:
PG:
Sixth man:

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

Obviously a lot to be seen over the summer (how guys develop, who comes ready to play, etc.) but my off-the-cuff guess is something like:

PG: Jon
SG: Nolan/Email
SF: Kyle/Kelly/Olek
PF: Lance/Plumlee
C: Plumlee/Z

I expect Jon and Nolan to share the PG duties a lot, since both are converted SG's with different skills. I love Email, but we just can't start our entire set of guards. I see moving Kyle to the 3 as a "must" and I'm very hopeful that one of the Super Plumlee Bros. can earn a starting gig, since they both have physical tools that Lance and Z simply lack.

End of game, I'd expect all three guards, Kyle, and whichever big stands out or best fits the situation. I'll be cheering my brains out for these guys, but there are just a ton of holes and zero margin for error. Glad we have K and that the Olympics/book tour will be over.

[DUKIE V(A)]

Guards = Scheyer, E-mail
Forwards = Singler, Mason Plumlee
Center = Zoubs

Lots of competition for spots though.

[Greg_Newton]

I think our best five players will be Nolan, Jon, Elliot, Kyle and Mason, and we will see that lineup at the end of games...especially as the year goes on. However, I bet the starting lineup will most often be:

PG: Nolan Smith
SG: Jon Scheyer
SF: Kyle Singler
PF: Lance Thomas
C: Mason Plumlee
6th: Elliot Williams

...with the most likely variation being Jon at PG and Elliot at SG, like this year. POSSIBLY Zoubek beating out Mason for C early on, but we're probably in trouble if Mason isn't good enough to take the role early in the season. This roster will certainly present some unique issues and opportunities for K.

Speaking of... you think K would ever consider trying a zone press with this strange roster? I know that sounds blasphemous, not to mention counterintuitive for a team with three guards, but with all of our long and athletic forwards it could be effective (and those Walker/Mercer UK teams in the 90s were always so fun to watch...). Mason or Lance could be very annoying at the top of the press, and we'd have countless big/active bodies to sub in (not to mention two superb on-ball defenders in Elliot and Nolan). My main concern would be potential guard injury/fatigue, even with a two guard lineup.

[speedevil2001]

Now that the whole John Wall saga is over, I was just curious as to what our starting five/team would look like next year.

To start the season:

C: Zoubek
PF: Thomas
SF: Singler
SG: Scheyer
PG: Smith
Sixth man: Williams

End of the season:

C: Mason Plumlee
PF: Singler
SF: Williams
SG: Scheyer
PG: Smith
Sixth man:Thomas

[speedevil2001]

Guards = Scheyer, E-mail
Forwards = Singler, Mason Plumlee
Center = Zoubs

Lots of competition for spots though.

i like that lineup; very big i think mason can play very well at either the 5 or 4 position and compliment singler. smith can replace either guards as the 6 man.

[6th Man]

I'm looking for Elliot to bust out this coming season. If he finds a jumpshot this summer he will be unguardable. He is fast, and I read where his vertical was higher than G's. We saw his explosiveness. Now we just need a jumper and better free throw shooting. That is easier to fix than acquiring the explosiveness. I like a starting 5 of Nolan, Scheyer, E-Mail, Singler, and Mason or Lance. One thing is for sure....Nolan, Jon, and Elliot will get plenty of burn on the court. Not bad to have Mason, Miles, Lance, Ryan, and Zoubs battling for inside minutes. We have options this year!!!!!

John Wall who? Best of luck with Kentucky. We will be having our own fun in Durham!

[mr. synellinden]

I think there is a good chance we will start our best five players -- and that will be either:

Scheyer
Williams
Smith
Singler
Plumlee/Plumlee/Thomas/Zoubek (all four have a chance to capture the 5th starting slot)

I know that leaves know guards on the bench, but I think it's our best starting five. We have enough flexibility to do some interesting things with lineups.

I could see a big lineup of:

Williams
Scheyer
Singler
Plumlee (the Mason)
Zoubek

and even bigger lineup of:

Scheyer
Singler
Thomas
Plumlee
Plumlee

a small (relatively) lineup of:

Smith
Williams
Scheyer
Thomas
Singler

But, as always, K will start his best 5 (and usually that means best 5 defensively) and I think it will be the three guards, Singler and Mason.

[VaDukie]

Smith
Scheyer
Singler
Thomas
Mason

Elliot comes off the bench as the 6th man and plays starters minutes, Kelly subs for our forwards and sees decent PT, Miles and Zoubek compete for Mason's back up minutes, and anything Olek can provide is gravy.

[johaad]

I know we lost out on Wall, but I am still really excited about next years team. I can't wait to see what coach K will do with such a large lineup. And I will pray for Lance to develop his jumpshot (remember that high school video). I don't care what anyone says, I am very excited about the season.


PS: Watch the NBA draft lottery tonight at 8:30 on ESPN to see if we need to fear G going to Charlotte.

[Greg_Newton]

I know we lost out on Wall, but I am still really excited about next years team. I can't wait to see what coach K will do with such a large lineup. And I will pray for Lance to develop his jumpshot (remember that high school video). I don't care what anyone says, I am very excited about the season.

Agreed... I think people are generally underestimating Lance's impact on next year's team. This is the first time in his career he is actually positioned to do what he was brought in here to do... play forward. Not to mention that he will be very seasoned senior, the team's emotional leader, and will have had a relatively healthy offseason to develop his skills. I'd go so far to say that he and Kyle at forward could be the two biggest constants on next year's team, with K trying various schemes at the guard and center spots.

[Kishiznit]

I know we lost out on Wall, but I am still really excited about next years team. I can't wait to see what coach K will do with such a large lineup. And I will pray for Lance to develop his jumpshot (remember that high school video). I don't care what anyone says, I am very excited about the season.


PS: Watch the NBA draft lottery tonight at 8:30 on ESPN to see if we need to fear G going to Charlotte.

There is NO chance Carolina would draft G - even if they had the last pick in the 2nd round and he fell that far (NO CHANCE OF THAT), they would still pass. That's how proud the Carolina Clan is - just moved camp from Chapel Hill to Charlotte. That's why they will not make a run until changes are made.

[mcdukie]

I think our starting lineup will be -
Smith
Scheyer
Williams
Singler
Thomas/Zoubek
If we don't start three guards too many teams will just flat out beat us with their athletes. Don't just think about how big UNC is, not to many teams will be that big.

[BlueintheFace]

I put this on the 2009-2010 MBB Team thread, but I guess the mods want to have this separate thread too, so hear is my take:

ROSTER:

Scheyer
Williams
Smith
Kelly
Singler
Czyz
Thomas
Plumlee1
Plumlee2
Zoubek

NOTES:

-We have just three guards total and no pure point guard
- Singler will HAVE to spend significant time at the three. This is not an opinion. This is a reality.
- We are very deep down low
- Seth Curry provides a 4th guard for practice. This is INVALUABLE as it will allow us to run a blue and white team with two guards each.

MY PROJECTED LINEUP:

Guard1: Nolan Smith (Elliot Williams)
Guard2: Jon Scheyer (Elliot Williams/Nolan Smith)
SF: Kyle Singler (Elliot Williams) (Ryan Kelly)
PF: Lance Thomas (Singler) (Plumlee1)
C: Brian Zoubek (Plumlee2)

A few thoughts on this:

1) POINT GUARD: Notice that I did not designate a point guard. This is because we truly do not have one. Coach K has intimated that, though Jon did a great job, he would prefer that Jon not handle the ball at the point if possible. My gues is that the job will be by committee and possibly rest on Nolan (with his ability to run the break) if he cuts down on turnovers and shows that he can handle it this year.

2) STARTING GUARDS: Whether Nolan or E-will starts as the second guard beside Jon will almost certainly be determined over the summer.

3) SINGLER'S ROLE: A very few of you believe that all three guards will start, and that after the first tv timeout Singler will slide over to the SF spot for one of the guards. Though this is feasible, I do not believe it is likely. Singler will see a majority of the game at the SF spot. "BIG" is what we are next year and K has a history of embracing the hand he is dealt. It is far more likely that K simply start Singler at the SF position since he will be spending much of his time there anyways out of neccessity (if you think we are running three guards on the floor for a majority of the minutes, you are sorely mistaken. It just leaves too little room for error with fouls and injuries. Do the Math)

Let me stress again, that there is NO WAY we can simulate even 3 guards vs 2 guards in practice. The best we can do is 2v2.

4) ZOUBEK v PLUMLEE: I started Zoubek here, but there is no way for us to know how well Mason will fit in. Some believe that he will start from the word Go and hold that spot, but this is historically very very unlikely. History has shown us that Big Men take longer to develop and acclimate to the college game than guards, and that freshman at Duke generally do not start from the first day and hold on to that spot unless they are game-changers (as in top10 talents destined to be team stars with jersey-hanging potential). Can Plumlee claim the spot by the first game? Of course. Should we presume that he will? Absolutely not. That being said, I will not be surprised at all to see him starting by Christmas.

ASIDE: I would really like K to start Plumlee from the beginning. I think it is possible that he learned something last year with Elliot Williams (He still learns things from time to time you know? He isn't God). I believe, for the future of this team in March and 2010 it would be most beneficial to throw Plumlee in to the fire and let him cut his teeth. However, if he can't learn our brand of team defense, and refuses to learn how to box out rather than just outjumping everyone for the ball as he did in high school, i say sit him anyways.

5) RYAN KELLY: Whether Kelly comes in for Singler at the three for significant minutes or finds himself sitting next to Czyz is a question that we will just have to wait to be answered. If he is as good a three point shooter as he seems, this will earn him playing time on a team that just lost 2 good 3pt shoters. If not, the third guard (when we are going small) will take over for Singler at the SF position, or Lance will take over for singler to hit that pretty midrange he developed last year. My instinct, however, is that Kelly will be the odd man out of an 8 man rotation. Only time will tell here...

[BlueinBlo]

To start the year

PG: Scheyer
SG: Williams
SF: Singler
PF: Thomas
C: Zoo

Going into ACC play

PG: Scheyer
SG: Williams
SF: Singler
PF: Mason Plumlee
C: Zoo

Going into the tournament

PG: Scheyer
SG: Williams
SF: Singler
PF: Mason Plumlee
C: Miles Plumlee

[CameronCrazy'11]

It'll be:

Smith
Scheyer
Singler
Lance
Plumlee2

Williams playing 25+ minutes as 6th man.

[FireOgilvie]

It'll be:

Smith
Scheyer
Singler
Lance
Plumlee2

Williams playing 25+ minutes as 6th man.

I concur.

I also think that at the end of close games it will be Smith, Scheyer, Williams, Lance, Singler.

[ACCBBallFan]

Obviously a lot to be seen over the summer (how guys develop, who comes ready to play, etc.) but my off-the-cuff guess is something like:

PG: Jon
SG: Nolan/Email
SF: Kyle/Kelly/Olek
PF: Lance/Plumlee
C: Plumlee/Z

I expect Jon and Nolan to share the PG duties a lot, since both are converted SG's with different skills. I love Email, but we just can't start our entire set of guards. I see moving Kyle to the 3 as a "must" and I'm very hopeful that one of the Super Plumlee Bros. can earn a starting gig, since they both have physical tools that Lance and Z simply lack.

End of game, I'd expect all three guards, Kyle, and whichever big stands out or best fits the situation. I'll be cheering my brains out for these guys, but there are just a ton of holes and zero margin for error. Glad we have K and that the Olympics/book tour will be over.

Pretty much agree with that.

PG - Nolan (30) Jon (10)

SG - Jon (20) Elliott (20)

SF - Kyle (30) Elliott (10) and Lance for defense occasionally in McClure role

PF - Mason, Lance (again in McClure role), Kelly compete for / share 40 min with Olek in reserve

C - Zoubek (20) Miles (20) with Mason third center, not Kyle, Not Lance except during stall ball

Also a more balanced 5 vs 5 scrimage with one of guards or Kyle teamed with Curry while other 3 play the 1-2-3 on starting team.

Mason or Kelly square off with Lance or Olek
Miles and Zoubek alternate starter/practice team.

A lineup of 3 guards - Kyle @ PF and someone would get no competition or improvement from Curry-Olek-Kelly-Lance - a Plumlee or Z, or two Plumlees and Curry the lone guard.

[Devilsfan]

I think our new freshmen have quite aways to go before contributing major minutes against ACC caliber opponents from I could see when they played against "high school" all-stars. The good news is, imo we have some very, very good returning players in Scheyer, Singler, Smith and Willaims. I think if Lance and/or the elder Plumlee step up we'll be more than fine.

[NYDukie]

G - Scheyer
G - Smith
F - Singler
F - Thomas
C - Zoubek
Sixth Man - Williams

Few points:

The notion that Coach K starts his best "players" regardless of position has been a popular theory on past threads and based on actual observation, a reality of late. Hence, that's why I'm not designating PG, SG, SF or PF. Since there is no true PG but G's with PG ability I think both Smith and Scheyer will share the ball handling responsibility based on matchups, flow of game, or who simply gets the outlet pass. Due to lack of G depth, I actually believe this will prove Singler's worth and how valuable and very good he could be. I think we have fallen into the "position" trap of Singler being a PF whereas as he is a forward through and through. He has above average ability to handle, shoot and pass the ball and drive to the basket for a forward at the college level and I believe solid enough post skills to balance his skill set. The game should flow through Singler more than ever this year and his versatility will be a tremendous asset and prove him to be one of the top 10 players in the nation. The other F/C spot gets a little trickier. I think we have seen that unless a freshman proves to be undeniably talented, most don't start right away for Coach K. That said, I think out of the gate it will be Thomas and Zoubek at those spots. These last two spots will be the most volitale as far as players starting. Depending on matchups and on the progress of MP1, MP2 and Kelly, I wouldn't be surprised to see them starting at points during the or one or two them consistently at year end. EWill can also be part of this equation but I think his value will be as the 6th man as he will get starter minutes and probably be part of the finishing lineup of games with Scheyer, Smith, Singler and one of the above said big men.

[whereinthehellami]

Zoubek and Thomas are key to Duke winning the ACC and getting past the sweet 16. They need to take their games to the next level for next year. They need to be more consistent while expanding their games on the offensive and defensive ends. That is a tall task and might be asking for too much.

The half empty beer drinker inside me sees next year playing out exactly as it it written on paper. Duke has enough talent to beat anyone but will also struggle mightily against any and all athletic teams. In other words I don't think Duke has the athletiscm to win the ACC and get past the sweet 16 for next year.

I'm looking forward to watching Singler in his final year though. The kid is special. I wish he had a little more pieces to work with as he is a national championship caliber talent/catalyst.

[The Gordog]

Let me stress again, that there is NO WAY we can simulate even 3 guards vs 2 guards in practice. The best we can do is 2v2.

Check that arrogance, man. Jordan Davidson is more than servicable as a practice player. I was at B&W last year and he looked better than EWill.

[jv001]

Check that arrogance, man. Jordan Davidson is more than servicable as a practice player. I was at B&W last year and he looked better than EWill.

Do we know for sure that Jordan is going to be on the team next year? It's too early to be guessing who the starters will be for the upcoming season, but it's fun. Go Duke!

[cameroncrazy3104]

C:Zoubs
PF:Singler
SF:Jon
SG:Email
PG:Nolan

6th man: Lance
7th man: Mason
8th man:Ryan Kelly
9th man: Miles

We could also

C:Lance
PF:Singler
SF:Jon
SG:Email
PG:Nolan

6th man: Zoubs
7th man: Mason
8th man:Ryan Kelly
9th man: Miles

[The Gordog]

Do we know for sure that Jordan is going to be on the team next year? It's too early to be guessing who the starters will be for the upcoming season, but it's fun. Go Duke!

I have heard (here on DBR) that Jordan redshirted last year and plans to return. I believe walk-ons get some recognition at the banquet their last year, yet there was nothing done for him at this year's banquet. My conclution is that he'll be back, but I'm not an insider so it's all heresay.

[JDev]

I see many of you writing that K will play his best five players, regardless of position, and I tend to agree with that as that is what he typically does. If that is the case, Duke's best five would most certainly have to include all three guards. Singler will see a lot of time at the 3 out of necessity, but Duke's best line-up and the one that plays the most is likely to be:
G - Scheyer
G - Smith
G - Williams
F - Singler
C - TBA (whichever one asserts themselves and elevates their game, possibly MP2)

[Kedsy]

I see many of you writing that K will play his best five players, regardless of position, and I tend to agree with that as that is what he typically does. If that is the case, Duke's best five would most certainly have to include all three guards. Singler will see a lot of time at the 3 out of necessity, but Duke's best line-up and the one that plays the most is likely to be:
G - Scheyer
G - Smith
G - Williams
F - Singler
C - TBA (whichever one asserts themselves and elevates their game, possibly MP2)

This is what I think, too. Although it will be interesting to see what lineups we play when we're resting the guards.

[miramar]

I also think that at the end of close games it will be Smith, Scheyer, Williams, Lance, Singler.

The only caveat here is Williams's free throw shooting at the end of the game. After all, we won't have Dave to tap the ball back out to G...

As noted previously, Williams will surely be working on his shot this summer, and that could be key next year.

[sagegrouse]

I have heard (here on DBR) that Jordan redshirted last year and plans to return. I believe walk-ons get some recognition at the banquet their last year, yet there was nothing done for him at this year's banquet. My conclution is that he'll be back, but I'm not an insider so it's all heresay.

I like that word: "heresay." A combination of "heresy" and "hearsay." Could have a lot of applicability on this Board.

WRT next year's starting line-up, I believe that four positions are set:

Scheyer
Singler
Nolan
EWill

The starting Center could be any of four people: Zoubs, LT, MP1, or MP2. Zoubek is very effective against certain teams, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him start, but the best news (see below) would be if one of the freshmen forces his way into the starting lineup.

At the three-minute mark (this year's substitution pattern), two of the big men will come off the bench, and one of the three guards and the starting C will sit. [FWIW, does anyone really think that Kyle is going to get much in-game rest next year? His only potential sub is Lance Thomas, unless Ryan Kelly is physically more mature than I believe or Czyz makes a giant step forward in skills and court sense.]

Predicting playing time for freshmen 6-9 or over is tough. The ones who have earned substantial minutes as freshmen under K have typically gone on to earn honors as upperclassmen: Ferry, Laettner, Parks, Brand, Boozer, and Shelden Williams. Shav was sixth in minutes in 2004 and probably would have made a big splash had he stayed four years. Similarly for McRoberts in 2006, who started nearly every game as a freshman. Burgess was a bit of a bust, here and at Utah, but was only ninth in minutes played as a freshman. That said, I guess our best hope for the long term is that MP2 and Ryan Kelly earn a lot of playing time next year.

sagegrouse

[mcdukie]

I like that word: "heresay." A combination of "heresy" and "hearsay." Could have a lot of applicability on this Board.

WRT next year's starting line-up, I believe that four positions are set:

Scheyer
Singler
Nolan
EWill

The starting Center could be any of four people: Zoubs, LT, MP1, or MP2. Zoubek is very effective against certain teams, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him start, but the best news (see below) would be if one of the freshmen forces his way into the starting lineup.

At the three-minute mark (this year's substitution pattern), two of the big men will come off the bench, and one of the three guards and the starting C will sit. [FWIW, does anyone really think that Kyle is going to get much in-game rest next year? His only potential sub is Lance Thomas, unless Ryan Kelly is physically more mature than I believe or Czyz makes a giant step forward in skills and court sense.]

Predicting playing time for freshmen 6-9 or over is tough. The ones who have earned substantial minutes as freshmen under K have typically gone on to earn honors as upperclassmen: Ferry, Laettner, Parks, Brand, Boozer, and Shelden Williams. Shav was sixth in minutes in 2004 and probably would have made a big splash had he stayed four years. Similarly for McRoberts in 2006, who started nearly every game as a freshman. Burgess was a bit of a bust, here and at Utah, but was only ninth in minutes played as a freshman. That said, I guess our best hope for the long term is that MP2 and Ryan Kelly earn a lot of playing time next year.

sagegrouse

I agree with your 4 that are set. The other spot will come down to who does what over the summer and in practice. I just don't agree with the people who are saying what the starting lineup will be based on practice matchups. As a coach you want your 5 on the floor that gives you the best chance to win. You find a way to work around it in practice. The way the game is being played now and what K has done in the past makes me seriously doubt him starting Singler at the 3. Neither freshman looks ready to step in and start and why would we start a 4 and a 5 that are no offensive threat?

[MulletMan]

This is relatively easy guys.

Starters:

LT
Plumlee II
Singler
Jon
Nolan

First man off the bench: E-Will

Mark it down.

(Oh wait... you mean there will be practices and what-not before this is determined? OK, well, mark it down in pencil.)

Here's my thinking... You can't start all three guards. There's no way. In my opinion the only absolute locks are Jon and Kyle. I think you could switch E-Will and Nolan depending on how they play leading up to the start of the season. I think that Lance will get the nod to start simply becuase he can guard smaller quicker players fairly well, and the biggest defensive concern for our (now amazingly) large team will be its ability to play K's defense with so much size and so much less foot speed on the floor. LT was getting it on D at the end of last season, and if he becomes just a bit better offensively in this last year, he will see major minutes. I may be giving PlumII too much credit, but I think he could start.

I just don't see all three guards starting together. Maybe coming out in the second half, and possibly playing some good minutes together, but no way all three of those guys average 37 minutes per game. Right? I'm being too hopeful, huh?

[BlueintheFace]

Check that arrogance, man. Jordan Davidson is more than servicable as a practice player. I was at B&W last year and he looked better than EWill.

Actually, I should tell you the same thing. It appears that nobody knows if Jordan will be back.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15896&highlight=Jordan+davidson

Additionally, it appears that he is having surgery this summer.

But please, enlighten us... share your inside information.

AND, even if Jordan is coming back, you have one team with Jon, Nolan, and E-Will vs another with Seth, Jordan, and ?? Ryan??... I'm just not sure that this is ideal, for a number of reasons. One of which is because then you have Singler and Zou vs LT and only ONE of the Plumlee's.

Don't forget the old K motto. You practice like you play.

[Kedsy]

This is relatively easy guys.

Starters:

LT
Plumlee II
Singler
Jon
Nolan

First man off the bench: E-Will

Mark it down.

(Oh wait... you mean there will be practices and what-not before this is determined? OK, well, mark it down in pencil.)

Here's my thinking... You can't start all three guards. There's no way. In my opinion the only absolute locks are Jon and Kyle. I think you could switch E-Will and Nolan depending on how they play leading up to the start of the season. I think that Lance will get the nod to start simply becuase he can guard smaller quicker players fairly well, and the biggest defensive concern for our (now amazingly) large team will be its ability to play K's defense with so much size and so much less foot speed on the floor. LT was getting it on D at the end of last season, and if he becomes just a bit better offensively in this last year, he will see major minutes. I may be giving PlumII too much credit, but I think he could start.

I just don't see all three guards starting together. Maybe coming out in the second half, and possibly playing some good minutes together, but no way all three of those guys average 37 minutes per game. Right? I'm being too hopeful, huh?

Why would all three starting mean they'd have to play 37 minutes a game? Although 35 mpg wouldn't shock me at all. Kyle's going to get around that, too, but that doesn't mean the four big minute guys can't start off the game.

When you say we have so much less footspeed, do you mean defensive quickness? Because most of our big men seem to get up and down the floor pretty well (probably all but Z), so I don't think speed is really the issue. Quick feet on defense, I would agree is a potential problem and will hopefully be where Lance makes his mark, in the few moments when we rest the guards.

Incidentally, this has nothing to do with your post, but count me among those who don't think practice matchups will dictate who starts the games.

[ArnieMc]

Let me stress again, that there is NO WAY we can simulate even 3 guards vs 2 guards in practice. The best we can do is 2v2.You know, I bet that there are at least 10-15 point guards in the student body that were even their high or prep school's basketball team captain. I suspect that a couple of them would love to fill a roster spot for a year or even just practice with the team. I think "NO WAY" is a pretty absurd statement.

[mo.st.dukie]

IMO, the lineup that would give Duke the best chance in March:

Nolan
Elliot
Kyle
Lance
Mason or Miles (whichever shows best in practice)

However, this lineup will only happen IF both Elliot and Nolan improve their ballhandling and shooting. If that happens then this lineup gives us length, athleticism, experience, shooting with Kyle, and is a big lineup (6'2, 6'5, 6'8,
6'8, 6'11). I could easily see Jon starting instead of Elliot and all three guards on the floor at the end of games. But I just think that when looking at the last 4 years, each NCAAT loss pretty much resulted because the other team had superior athleticism.

[BlueintheFace]

You know, I bet that there are at least 10-15 point guards in the student body that were even their high or prep school's basketball team captain. I suspect that a couple of them would love to fill a roster spot for a year or even just practice with the team. I think "NO WAY" is a pretty absurd statement.

Alright. Let me rephrase. There is no way to simulate ACC caliber basketball (probably not even MVC caliber basketball) in practice every day if we run a blue team and a white team with three guards a piece. Okay?

ADDITIONALLY, if we did so, we would be selling a lot of top flight post talent short. Guys come on... this team will run all three guards together occassionally, but it just isn't going to be for a majority of the minutes, it isn't going to be the primary game plan, it just IS NOT as feasible as other options.

[BlueintheFace]

IMO, the lineup that would give Duke the best chance in March:

Nolan
Elliot
Kyle
Lance
Mason or Miles (whichever shows best in practice)

However, this lineup will only happen IF both Elliot and Nolan improve their ballhandling and shooting. If that happens then this lineup gives us length, athleticism, experience, shooting with Kyle, and is a big lineup (6'2, 6'5, 6'8,
6'8, 6'11). I could easily see Jon starting instead of Elliot and all three guards on the floor at the end of games. But I just think that when looking at the last 4 years, each NCAAT loss pretty much resulted because the other team had superior athleticism.

ummmm, you forgot one of our two most valuable players... by a lot.

[old BOGger]

play zoubs at the end of games if he hasn't fouled out he suprisingly was 80% from the line last year...

[mo.st.dukie]

ummmm, you forgot one of our two most valuable players... by a lot.

No I didn't, I said I could easily see Jon starting and even if he's 6th man he'd still be getting 28/30+ minutes. I'm also looking at this from more of a defensive perspective, with Nolan and Elliot that would give Duke a very tough defensive backcourt with length and lateral quickness. If Duke wants to go deep in March they need athleticism and it's not like they'd be sacrificing experience for athleticism because both Nolan and Elliot now have experience.

[MulletMan]

When you say we have so much less footspeed, do you mean defensive quickness? Because most of our big men seem to get up and down the floor pretty well (probably all but Z), so I don't think speed is really the issue. Quick feet on defense, I would agree is a potential problem and will hopefully be where Lance makes his mark, in the few moments when we rest the guards.



Yes... defensive quickness Sorry for the confusion. The ability to move feet, rotate, switch, etc. PlumI was pretty inept at this last year, Zoubs is great for defeding the low post, and I'm not counting Kyle as a "big" as he's likely to see lots of time outside of the post again. So when you're looking at Thomas, Z, PlumI, PlumII, Czyz, and Kelley, I think that Thomas starts over all of those guys due to his defensive quickness and ability to guard multiple players on the opposing team.

The last Duke team that was this thin at the guard position, IMO, was the 04-05 team that had Daniel, Dock, JJ and Demarcus. JJ averaged 37 mpg that season, Ewing was at 35, Dock had 27 and Nelson played about 19. So that's 48 mpg between Dock and Nelson... you take the number of guards on that team down to 3, JJ still plays 37-38, Ewing goes up to 37-38, and the third guard left probably averages in the same range if we play the same style. JJ and D-Ew started every game, so if you start the other guard, whoever it might be, I don't think its an extrapolation to think they'd be playing MAJOR minutes.

I'm not saying its a definite, but three guards start... three guards play major minutes... three guards have dead legs at the end of games.

[MulletMan]

No I didn't, I said I could easily see Jon starting and even if he's 6th man he'd still be getting 28/30+ minutes. I'm also looking at this from more of a defensive perspective, with Nolan and Elliot that would give Duke a very tough defensive backcourt with length and lateral quickness. If Duke wants to go deep in March they need athleticism and it's not like they'd be sacrificing experience for athleticism because both Nolan and Elliot now have experience.

If you think that Jon Scheyer is not an excellent backcourt defender, then I think you need to watch him play some more.

[Greg_Newton]

No I didn't, I said I could easily see Jon starting and even if he's 6th man he'd still be getting 28/30+ minutes. I'm also looking at this from more of a defensive perspective, with Nolan and Elliot that would give Duke a very tough defensive backcourt with length and lateral quickness. If Duke wants to go deep in March they need athleticism and it's not like they'd be sacrificing experience for athleticism because both Nolan and Elliot now have experience.

It's easy to forget how good Jon is because his game isn't as "sexy" as our other athletic guards... but let's also not forget that he was often our best player this year, and will be one of the best players in the ACC next year. He doesn't have a great vertical and won't be making many summer league highlight reels, but when the ball goes up next year, you'll want him on the floor.

It would make me so happy if Jon were to spend all summer doing lateral quickness drills and surprised everyone by being a Nick Calathes-type PG and potential NBA prospect next year. He clearly has the skills, and if he could just work on his quickness and develop that type of attacking mindset over the summer it would be so great. Either way, he'll be really fun to watch as a senior.

[mo.st.dukie]

Yeah, he's pretty good but he's not that lock down defender and not on the level of Elliot. He lacks some of the physical tools that Elliot has and players have to be quick in todays game. I'm not saying Jon's a bad player because he's not, he's a very talented player and valuable to the team but we need speed, length and athleticism if we want to get back to the Final Four. I think whenever people see that a player isn't a starter they automatically think that the player isn't good, that's not the case at all but Duke has other players that may be able to give them something more or something different.

[Wander]

If you think that Jon Scheyer is not an excellent backcourt defender, then I think you need to watch him play some more.

He's pretty good defensively, underrated by the average basketball fan, and, yes, of course will be starting as he's our second best player. But his defense has been overrated here. It's good but not excellent. Somewhere between where the average college basketball fan thinks it is and where the average DBR poster thinks it is.

[Wander]

Yeah, he's pretty good but he's not that lock down defender and not on the level of Elliot. He lacks some of the physical tools that Elliot has and players have to be quick in todays game. I'm not saying Jon's a bad player because he's not, he's a very talented player and valuable to the team but we need speed, length and athleticism if we want to get back to the Final Four.

You're making this more complicated than it needs to be. Jon's our second best player. He's starting every single game next year, period.

[Wander]

As for the rest of the starting lineup, as successful as the Scheyer and Elliot starting backcourt experiment was late last season, I think in order to be the best team we can be, we need Nolan to be the starting point guard. And if Mason Plumlee doesn't assert himself as the obvious choice for starting center, preferably from the first day in practice, we're in for more of the same in regards to that position. I guess Lance can be the 5th starter as a glue guy, and I think he'll benefit from getting to be a forward most of the time instead of a center. And I want the 2009 ACC POY as many minutes as possible in meaningful games. 35+.

[Reddevil]

play zoubs at the end of games if he hasn't fouled out he suprisingly was 80% from the line last year...

More than any other year I can recall, this season will require a situational roster. The starting five may not equate to the five on the floor in the last 4-5 minutes, or to the five on the floor during the majority of the game. I can imagine having Nolan and Elliot starting and really pressuring the perimeter and setting the defensive tone. Creativity by the coaching staff may result in some point forward by Kyle along with one guard to help bring up the ball while two guards get a breather. K has always broken the game down into segments, and that will be a big key this coming season. The development of Lance, Z, and Miles, along with the readiness of the freshmen will be important. If MP II is able to contribute right away, that would be a huge positive. EW's free throw shooting will influence that last segment's personnel as much as anything.

[FireOgilvie]

Yeah, he's pretty good but he's not that lock down defender and not on the level of Elliot. He lacks some of the physical tools that Elliot has and players have to be quick in todays game. I'm not saying Jon's a bad player because he's not, he's a very talented player and valuable to the team but we need speed, length and athleticism if we want to get back to the Final Four.

I would love it if Elliot improved enough for this to be the case, but I don't see it happening. If you max out everyone's potential, then you're probably right... Duke has a higher ceiling with Elliot. But, barring huge improvements in every category, there's no way Elliot is better than Scheyer. Scheyer was just as good as Henderson at the end of the year; he was also ACC Tournament MVP.

[mo.st.dukie]

You're making this more complicated than it needs to be. Jon's our second best player. He's starting every single game next year, period.

Yeah, if you're operating under the assumption that other players aren't going to get better. Elliot has NBA-like athleticism so if he improves some of his skills then maybe he surpasses Jon similar to how Nolan surpassed Greg when everyone said last offseason that Greg would start every single game period. And I mentioned in my first post that Jon will start if both Elliot and Nolan don't improve their ballhandling and shooting. I'm just throwing my opinion out there.

[Matches]

My guess:

Scheyer
Smith
EWill
Singler
Plumlee II

Could be Thomas in that fifth spot though.

[InSpades]

Jon not starting is somewhat unfathomable. Even if Elliot and Nolan both improve immeasurably, they'd just force K to start 3 guards. If 2 big men (other than Kyle) also end up playing well enough that Duke is better off with Scheyer coming off the bench then I will eat my shorts.

I really think whether K starts 2 or 3 guards is irrelevant. All 3 of them will get around 30+ minutes in games that matter. The only player who will play more than them is Kyle. If 1 of them comes off the bench... it doesn't really matter. We will probably see anywhere from 5-20 minutes of 3 guard lineup per game. Probably less at the start of the year and more in the 2nd half.

[CDu]

I have heard (here on DBR) that Jordan redshirted last year and plans to return. I believe walk-ons get some recognition at the banquet their last year, yet there was nothing done for him at this year's banquet. My conclution is that he'll be back, but I'm not an insider so it's all heresay.

I thought that someone who went to the banquet stated that Davidson was, in fact, honored this year, and that Coach K noted that Davidson's status for next year is up in the air. He redshirted this year to be available if absolutely necessary, but that he wasn't a definite to come back.

I don't think that's been updated since, but the statement by Coach K was made prior to landing Curry.

[VaDukie]

Prediction: The "All 3 guards will start" vs. "We can only start 2 and bring 1 off the bench" argument will reach levels not seen since the Scheyer v. Henderson battle of Summer 07. Ah, good times...

[BlueinBlo]

Prediction: The "All 3 guards will start" vs. "We can only start 2 and bring 1 off the bench" argument will reach levels not seen since the Scheyer v. Henderson battle of Summer 07. Ah, good times...

Unless Nolan Smith turns into Henderson number 2, I don't see them going with 3 guards. Smith ended the year on the bench and I expect him to start this year on the bench. The line up would be entirely too small and weak imo.

[BlueintheFace]

Prediction: The "All 3 guards will start" vs. "We can only start 2 and bring 1 off the bench" argument will reach levels not seen since the Scheyer v. Henderson battle of Summer 07. Ah, good times...

I disagree. The ONLY argument for "All 3 guards start" is that you want all your best players starting. The arguments for the other side are NUMEROUS and fairly convincing. My perception is that the "All 3 guards start" crowd is a distinct minority on this board and they break down in to two groups:

1) All 3 guards start, but we end up playing Singler and/or Kelly at the SF position more than the guards.

- This position is not really distinguishable from the "Start 2 and bring 1 off the bench" group. There is certainly a meeting of the minds with the two groups on how minutes are distributed here. The only difference is how this first faction sees K starting the game off (those first 5 minutes).

2) All 3 guards will start and be on the court together as much as humanly possible... ~35+ minutes/game.

- This faction of "All 3 guards start" believers have it in their head that 4 of our players (Jon, Nolan, E-will, and Kyle) will play ~70% of this team's minutes. They believe that the other 30% will go to the remaining 6 PFs/Centers on the team. My belief is that this second faction is pretty small and will be shouted down before the season starts.

[SilkyJ]

I disagree. The ONLY argument for "All 3 guards start" is that you want all your best players starting. The arguments for the other side are NUMEROUS and fairly convincing. My perception is that the "All 3 guards start" crowd is a distinct minority on this board and they break down in to two groups:

1) All 3 guards start, but we end up playing Singler and/or Kelly at the SF position more than the guards.

- This position is not really distinguishable from the "Start 2 and bring 1 off the bench" group. There is certainly a meeting of the minds with the two groups on how minutes are distributed here. The only difference is how this first faction sees K starting the game off (those first 5 minutes).

2) All 3 guards will start and be on the court together as much as humanly possible... ~35+ minutes/game.

- This faction of "All 3 guards start" believers have it in their head that 4 of our players (Jon, Nolan, E-will, and Kyle) will play ~70% of this team's minutes. They believe that the other 30% will go to the remaining 6 PFs/Centers on the team. My belief is that this second faction is pretty small and will be shouted down before the season starts.

Sounds roughly fair, but I think the discussion about who starts (or more importantly: who plays a lot) shouldn't center around our backcourt, but our frontcourt. THAT's where the questions are. Jon, Nolan, and EWill will all play 25+mpg b/c they have to. And we obviously know that Kyle is going to get his as well. What we don't know is what 2-4 other players will play significant minutes, and that's where the debate should be...there are just soooo many unknowns and questions there.

1) Will lance and zoubs develop much more than they already have? 2) How much of a jump will MP1 make? 3) how good are the freshman?

Until we know those answers, we really don't know our rotation, and we won't know those answers until November. Yes we can speculate all day, and we will b/c some its fun, but just everyone remember before you go out on a limb that dkbaseball claimed in the summer of 2008 "this time next I fear our biggest worry with Olek will be him jumping to the pros"

how'd that one work out dk? :confused:

[miramar]

Yes we can speculate all day, and we will b/c some its fun, but just everyone remember before you go out on a limb that dkbaseball claimed in the summer of 2008 "this time next I fear our biggest worry with Olek will be him jumping to the pros"

how'd that one work out dk? :confused:

While many of us may often appear clueless, in our collective defense we should remember that even the professionals make big mistakes. I remember a few months back that DBR had a link to an article that indicated that NBA scouts had given up on Gerald Henderson entirely. How did that work out, pro scouts?

Come to think of it, I wish they hadn't corrected their mistake...

[Atldukie79]

K has had a tendency to play smaller and quicker when possible. I am quite sure that our 3 guards will see many minutes. I really don't think it matters whether all 3 start or not regarding minutes (maybe it matters for ego). Except for the issue of injury...and foul trouble (both real), we will be quite fine with "just" 3 guards. Nolan and Williams remind me of Amaker and Dawkins in body type. I believe they can run all day and log many minutes. Scheyer has proven that he can play 35+ minutes if necessary.

I think the critical issues are these:

1) Can we match up with quick, athletic teams when Singler/Kelly have to cover smaller, quicker guys?
2) Will we have 4 3 point shooters on the court very often so that we can spread it out? (Scheyer and Singler have proven 3 point games. Williams and Nolan need to show that they can hit it. Maybe Kelly can. Who else?)
3) Will any of our low post players be considered a threat to score...dare I ask that they command a double team? (No proof of this yet...I think Mason can be that guy eventually)
4) Who can create their own shot when the clock winds down? "G" was the man for that. Williams, Nolan and Singler are candidates...

Frankly, I think this will be a fun year, and there is much upside, though balanced against a thin margin for error.

[InSpades]

Unless Nolan Smith turns into Henderson number 2, I don't see them going with 3 guards. Smith ended the year on the bench and I expect him to start this year on the bench. The line up would be entirely too small and weak imo.

Smith ended the year playing better than Elliot Williams. Post-concussion they played about the same # of minutes and Nolan was much more effective offensively.

Too small and weak? So you'd rather we put a team of tall bodybuilders on the court? I think it's pretty unanimously agreed that Duke's best lineup would be 3 guards, Kyle and a big. If Nolan doesn't start it's because they need him to play when Jon or Elliot sit.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Jon not starting is somewhat unfathomable. Even if Elliot and Nolan both improve immeasurably, they'd just force K to start 3 guards. If 2 big men (other than Kyle) also end up playing well enough that Duke is better off with Scheyer coming off the bench then I will eat my shorts.



One year ago, did you really think that Paulus would not be starting in 2008-09?

[Duke #33]

I'm looking forward to watching Singler in his final year though.

Hey, maybe he comes back for his senior year because he sees potential for a deep tourny run with that class/year.
A little optimistic, but I am a glass half full type of person.:)

[Kedsy]

I disagree. The ONLY argument for "All 3 guards start" is that you want all your best players starting. The arguments for the other side are NUMEROUS and fairly convincing. My perception is that the "All 3 guards start" crowd is a distinct minority on this board and they break down in to two groups:

1) All 3 guards start, but we end up playing Singler and/or Kelly at the SF position more than the guards.

- This position is not really distinguishable from the "Start 2 and bring 1 off the bench" group. There is certainly a meeting of the minds with the two groups on how minutes are distributed here. The only difference is how this first faction sees K starting the game off (those first 5 minutes).

2) All 3 guards will start and be on the court together as much as humanly possible... ~35+ minutes/game.

- This faction of "All 3 guards start" believers have it in their head that 4 of our players (Jon, Nolan, E-will, and Kyle) will play ~70% of this team's minutes. They believe that the other 30% will go to the remaining 6 PFs/Centers on the team. My belief is that this second faction is pretty small and will be shouted down before the season starts.

You can shout all you want, but the fact is Coach K routinely plays his top 4 guys 30 to 33 mpg and a 5th guy in the 23 to 30 range. (I didn't look up every year, but the first seven years I checked, 1986, 1992, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2006 all followed this pattern; I'm sure there are many others.) Next year, the top 4 will be Kyle, Jon, Nolan, and Elliot, and the 5th guy will probably be Lance although maybe Mason.

In this scenario, the top 5 guys play between 70% and 80% of the available minutes. Once you've established this, it really doesn't matter who starts, but it's more likely than not that the top 5 guys will be the ones who start the game. If for no other reason than they're going to be playing the lion's share of the minutes so it's more likely than not that they'll be playing in any particular minute you choose, including the first one.

If your argument is that 35 mpg for the 4 top guys is unrealistic but you'll believe 33 mpg (as happened in 2000 and 2006 and undoubtedly a few other years) then it's just semantics. If you're saying that any of Kyle, Jon, Elliot, and Nolan will play fewer than 30 mpg then I think you're the one who's in the minority. You claim the arguments on the other side are "numerous and fairly convincing" (and you apparently think they're so "numerous" it justifies all caps) but once you agree that the guards and Kyle will play 30+ minutes, I can't think of a single reason that's convincing at all.

Oh, and by the way, what does "shouted down before the season starts" even mean? How will you disprove a reasonable and rational theory before games start being played and we see how K deploys his roster? If you shout them down will it make it less likely that K decides to go that route?

So go ahead and shout me down. I can take it.

[COYS]

Frankly, I think this will be a fun year, and there is much upside, though balanced against a thin margin for error.

I think this is a very fair assessment for our team. We need a lot of things to go right to make a deep run next year (Williams and Smith will have to step up, Scheyer and Singler will have to improve on their already great play, the freshman will have to make an impact or at least Lance and Zoubs have to have a much greater impact). If any of these things don't pan out, we probably will be just short of championship caliber. However, if Singler gives us the ACC POY we know he has in him, if Smith rebounds and improves, if Williams develops his outside shot, and if Mason or Kelly can make an impact (or if one of our other veteran forwards suddenly breaks out), we'll be in very good shape.

[FireOgilvie]

If you look at minute distributions in past seasons, it becomes obvious that the top 3 or 4 guys will be playing right around 30 or more minutes each (depending on depth and team makeup). Scheyer played 32.8 min/gm last year. Singler was 32.2 min/gm. Henderson was 29.7 min/gm. Nolan was splitting time with Paulus, and he played 21.6 min/gm. Thomas was 18.6 min/gm (splitting time with Zoubek and McClure). Elliot played in the high 20's after earning starting minutes near the end of the season (keep in mind Nolan was out for part of this). Here is my prediction of minute distributions among our top 4 guys next year (keeping in mind we only have 3 guards):

Scheyer - 35 min/gm
Singler - 33 min/gm
Nolan - 30 min/gm
Elliot - 30 min/gm

Total - 128 min/gm = 64% of total minutes

I think these will be accurate season averages (+/- 2) barring injuries. Players tend to average more minutes as the season goes on and the bench shortens.

An interesting and very important note:

If you are one of the people that thinks we should be playing all 3 guards at the same time as much as possible (but no fewer than 2 at any time), there are mathematical limitations. First, assume Scheyer at 35 min/gm, Nolan at 30 min/gm, and Elliot at 30 min/gm. Second, assume we're going to have 2 of the 3 guards on the floor at all times. If these things happen, all 3 guards will play simultaneously for only 15 min/gm. That's less than one half. So mathematically, we're going to have to use Singler/Kelly/Olek for 25 minutes/gm at the 3 spot. Just something to think about.

The rest of the players' minutes breakdown:

Looking at the numbers above, 64% of the total minutes are taken by the top 4 players. This leaves 72 minutes/game for other players. These minutes will be have to be divided between Lance, Zoubek, Mason, Miles, Kelly, and Olek. Divided equally, that's 12 minutes for each person per game (not bad).

- Thomas averaged just over 18 min/gm the past two years. We'll give him the same amount this year - 19 min/gm (53 min left).

- I think Mason should come in and get solid minutes. I'm guessing 17 min/gm at center on the year (36 min left).

- Zoubek will probably average 1 or 2 more than last year, IMO. He had almost 12 min/gm last year. We'll give him 14 min/gm. (22 min left)

- I'm guessing Kelly will get the most minutes of the remaining 3. We'll say 11 min/gm. Miles could get 7. That leaves 4 for Olek.

Recap:

Scheyer - 35 min/gm
Singler - 33 min/gm
Smith - 30 min/gm
Williams - 30 min/gm
Thomas - 19 min/gm
Plumlee II - 17 min/gm
Zoubek - 14 min/gm
Kelly - 11 min/gm
Plumlee I - 7 min/gm
Olek - 4 min/gm

This is one potential breakdown. My preference would be completely different than this, but this is a possible scenario.

[MrBisonDevil]

Logging Most Starts :
G Nolan Smith
G Jon Scheyer
G Elliot Williams
F Kyle Singler
F Thomas 65% /Zoubek 35% (depends on matchup)

6th F/C Plumlee (not sure which one - depends on Mile's summer - he will be the high energy sub @ 18mpg)
7th F/C Plumlee (the other one)
8th F Ryan Kelly (tall ranged bomber)
9th F/C Zoubek 65% /Thomas 35%

All of the above nine should average above 10mpg.

[whereinthehellami]

Logging Most Starts :
G Nolan Smith
G Jon Scheyer
G Elliot Williams
F Kyle Singler
F Thomas 65% /Zoubek 35% (depends on matchup)

6th F/C Plumlee (not sure which one - depends on Mile's summer - he will be the high energy sub @ 18mpg)
7th F/C Plumlee (the other one)
8th F Ryan Kelly (tall ranged bomber)
9th F/C Zoubek 65% /Thomas 35%

All of the above nine should average above 10mpg.

I don't see Kelly getting 10 MPG this year unless he loads up on minutes in out of conference games. I think that with his lack of speed and strength he is at least a year away from being able to defend any frontcourt player in the ACC. Plus Duke is pretty deep in the froncourt and competition will be fierce. It is asking alot of a freshman big guy to come in and figure it all out.

[roywhite]

I understand the concern about how the 09/10 team will shake out, but how many programs in the country will have a roster with 7 McDonald's All-Americans?

Only 3 guards, but Scheyer, EWill, and Nolan were all Burger Boys. Up front, there's Lance Thomas, Singler, and the two big frosh, Mason P. and Ryan Kelly, continuing the tradition of multiple Mickey Dees.

The usual disclaimers about their HS credentials being no guarantee of future stardom, etc... but, that's a lot of talent to work with.

And our Hall of Fame Coach returns. :)

[ArnieMc]

I don't see Kelly getting 10 MPG this year unless he loads up on minutes in out of conference games. I think that with his lack of speed and strength he is at least a year away from being able to defend any frontcourt player in the ACC. Plus Duke is pretty deep in the froncourt and competition will be fierce. It is asking alot of a freshman big guy to come in and figure it all out.I don't know. He is highly ranked for a reason. As shown in the all-star games, he already has offensive moves. One of the commentators mentioned that he had shown 3 different moves, and no one else had shown any. He will be a nightmare match up with his 3-point shot and post moves. I do agree, however, that his playing time will depend on his ability to defend.

[roywhite]

I don't know. He is highly ranked for a reason. As shown in the all-star games, he already has offensive moves. One of the commentators mentioned that he had shown 3 different moves, and no one else had shown any. He will be a nightmare match up with his 3-point shot and post moves. I do agree, however, that his playing time will depend on his ability to defend.


One of the things I've noticed watching the NBA playoffs is the value of a big guy who can shoot from outside. Creates matchup problems, stretches the opposing defense, provides a good offensive option during crunch time, etc.

I could see Kelly leading the team in scoring at some point and being one of the highest scorers in the conference; will that happen in 2009/10?...probably not, but he is definitely a weapon.

[mo.st.dukie]

I think Ryan will have a long adjustment period to the college game, longer than Mason. Once he acclimates to the physicality of the game and puts on weight (probably not until year 2 or 3) he could be an All-ACC caliber player. Mason, however, probably is ready to contribute right away although probably won't dominate. I could also see Lance getting a good portion of the minutes at C if Coach K decides to go small and quick. Zoubs will be used against big, slow centers much like the Texas game where he was effective against Pittman.

[InSpades]

An interesting and very important note:

If you are one of the people that thinks we should be playing all 3 guards at the same time as much as possible (but no fewer than 2 at any time), there are mathematical limitations. First, assume Scheyer at 35 min/gm, Nolan at 30 min/gm, and Elliot at 30 min/gm. Second, assume we're going to have 2 of the 3 guards on the floor at all times. If these things happen, all 3 guards will play simultaneously for only 15 min/gm. That's less than one half. So mathematically, we're going to have to use Singler/Kelly/Olek for 25 minutes/gm at the 3 spot. Just something to think about.


I was going to make this point yesterday but never got around to it. I think 35/30/30 for Jon/Nolan/Elliot is reasonable for the 2nd half of the season. In the 1st half it will likely be slightly less than that. If you take it down to 33/28/28 then you have the 3-guard lineup in for about 10 minutes. Do you really want 5 of those minutes to be starting the game?

[CDu]

In this scenario, the top 5 guys play between 70% and 80% of the available minutes. Once you've established this, it really doesn't matter who starts, but it's more likely than not that the top 5 guys will be the ones who start the game. If for no other reason than they're going to be playing the lion's share of the minutes so it's more likely than not that they'll be playing in any particular minute you choose, including the first one.

This is not quite accurate. Take the situation with the guards for example. Let's assume that Scheyer plays 35 minutes per game, and Smith and Williams each play 30 minutes per game. I'd assume these to be reasonable estimates, given the propensity for Smith and Williams to commit fouls with their aggressive defense. In that scenario, the guards will be playing 79.1% of the possible minutes.

Now note that we will never have fewer than two guards on the floor at a time. So this means that for the 10 minutes in which Williams is out, Smith and Scheyer must be on the floor. That means that Smith has only 20 minutes in which both Scheyer and Williams could be on the floor. But Scheyer will be on the bench for 5 of those minutes.

So despite the fact that those three guards are playing basically 80% of the game, they're only on the floor together for 15 minutes per game. Thus, we'll be playing a two-guard lineup for the majority of the game. So it is more likely that in any minute you choose, we'll be playing just two guards. So by your own logic, the first minute should be more likely to be played by only two guards.

[CDu]

I understand the concern about how the 09/10 team will shake out, but how many programs in the country will have a roster with 7 McDonald's All-Americans?

Only 3 guards, but Scheyer, EWill, and Nolan were all Burger Boys. Up front, there's Lance Thomas, Singler, and the two big frosh, Mason P. and Ryan Kelly, continuing the tradition of multiple Mickey Dees.

The usual disclaimers about their HS credentials being no guarantee of future stardom, etc... but, that's a lot of talent to work with.

And our Hall of Fame Coach returns. :)

I realize that you caveat your argument with the next to last paragraph, but...

You do realize that we had seven All-Americans last year, too, right? In fact, we haven't had fewer than six All-Americans on the roster in any year in the last decade. In 2002-2003, we had 8 All-Americans, and yet we were a 3-seed in the tournament.

In and of itself, the number of All-Americans on the roster is not a really good argument for why we'll be great.

[roywhite]

I realize that you caveat your argument with the next to last paragraph, but...

You do realize that we had seven All-Americans last year, too, right? In fact, we haven't had fewer than six All-Americans on the roster in any year in the last decade. In 2002-2003, we had 8 All-Americans, and yet we were a 3-seed in the tournament.

In and of itself, the number of All-Americans on the roster is not a really good argument for why we'll be great.

Yeah, gotcha... Just a "cup is half-full" point to get out there.

Okay, by logic and breakdown of minutes as expressed by you and other posters, makes sense to start two guards.

So, which two guards? I'll guess Scheyer and Nolan, with EWill coming off the bench to spell minutes at either 2 or 3.

Who else starts? With perhaps some trial and error, I think Kyle, Lance Thomas, and Mason Plumlee are the other starters.

EWill as first guy off bench overall, and Zoubs as first big off bench.

Biggest wild cards (can play themselves in or out of lineup)---Miles P. and Ryan Kelly. Comfort level, experience, ability to pick up defense are the variables there.

Just my .02. Do we really have to wait 6 months to find out? :(

[BlueintheFace]

You can shout all you want, but the fact is Coach K routinely plays his top 4 guys 30 to 33 mpg and a 5th guy in the 23 to 30 range. (I didn't look up every year, but the first seven years I checked, 1986, 1992, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2006 all followed this pattern; I'm sure there are many others.) Next year, the top 4 will be Kyle, Jon, Nolan, and Elliot, and the 5th guy will probably be Lance although maybe Mason.

Okay? This breakdown looks more like the "start 2 guards" group or the first faction of the "start three guards group. I have no problem here except that, if we assume the three guards all average 33mpg, Kyle/ Kelly/??? will be playing more minutes at the SF position than the guards. Why not just start him there? Shouldn't we start our players where they will spend most of their minutes if possible? Doesn't that make sense most of the time sense it would be affirming our team identity? This is not a very big deal though, and like I said. I believe reasonable arguments could be made here both ways.



In this scenario, the top 5 guys play between 70% and 80% of the available minutes. Once you've established this, it really doesn't matter who starts, but it's more likely than not that the top 5 guys will be the ones who start the game. If for no other reason than they're going to be playing the lion's share of the minutes so it's more likely than not that they'll be playing in any particular minute you choose, including the first one.

See- Jon Scheyer (2007-2008)

Sometimes it DOES NOT make more sense to start the 5 guys who will receive the most minutes.


If your argument is that 35 mpg for the 4 top guys is unrealistic but you'll believe 33 mpg (as happened in 2000 and 2006 and undoubtedly a few other years) then it's just semantics. If you're saying that any of Kyle, Jon, Elliot, and Nolan will play fewer than 30 mpg then I think you're the one who's in the minority. You claim the arguments on the other side are "numerous and fairly convincing" (and you apparently think they're so "numerous" it justifies all caps) but once you agree that the guards and Kyle will play 30+ minutes, I can't think of a single reason that's convincing at all.

How did you turn this in to a debate solely on minutes? I believe this is ultimately a debate on rotations. I think all of our guards will receive at least 28mpg and maybe even 30mpg. I believe Jon and Kyle will play 33-35 mpg in ACC play and beyond. Ultimately, I think our 3 guards and Kyle will take on 64-67% of the minutes. This does not at all mean that I believe all three will start. It's not about minutes, it's about rotations. More often then not (in both of our proposed minutes) Duke will be running a rotation with Singler at SF (or Kelly, if you are the kind of person always optimistic about freshman). No matter how you work the numbers, Duke will be a team that plays bigger next year than it did this year. Duke will spend more time running two guard rotations than three guard rotations. It's just math. So, as I have said, I think it is reasonable to believe that all 3 guards start if you recognize that "all 3 guards" will not be playing together more often than not. The problem with the second faction of "start all 3 guards" is their rejection of this mathematical probabilities.


NUMEROUS:
1) Foul Trouble
2) Injury Exposure
3) PRACTICE!!!!
4) Fitness
5) Matchups


Oh, and by the way, what does "shouted down before the season starts" even mean? How will you disprove a reasonable and rational theory before games start being played and we see how K deploys his roster?

Math


If you shout them down will it make it less likely that K decides to go that route?

No, and I hate it when people do this. K obviously doesn't care what we think about rotations. Claiming that somebody is wrong in some way because it won't affect K's decisions stinks of desperation. It's like saying, "Nu-uh, you're wrong and nobody even cares about that anyways."

[CDu]

Yeah, gotcha... Just a "cup is half-full" point to get out there.

Okay, by logic and breakdown of minutes as expressed by you and other posters, makes sense to start two guards.

So, which two guards? I'll guess Scheyer and Nolan, with EWill coming off the bench to spell minutes at either 2 or 3.

Who else starts? With perhaps some trial and error, I think Kyle, Lance Thomas, and Mason Plumlee are the other starters.

EWill as first guy off bench overall, and Zoubs as first big off bench.

Biggest wild cards (can play themselves in or out of lineup)---Miles P. and Ryan Kelly. Comfort level, experience, ability to pick up defense are the variables there.

Just my .02. Do we really have to wait 6 months to find out? :(

If I had to guess, I'd say that Smith and Scheyer will start in the backcourt with Singler, Thomas, and one of the Plumlees in the frontcourt. The fifth spot is the one at which I see the most room for variation, though. I could see either of the Plumlees or Zoubek getting the starts, and they may rotate depending upon the opponent.

Of course, you never know. Coach K could decide to start the game small and quick, and then bring in the big lineup at the 15 minute mark, and rotate between big and small as the game dictates (either via matchups or foul trouble in the backcourt).

Either way, it's going to require a LOT of development from a lot of guys for this to work. Singler and one of Kelly, Czyz, and Thomas is going to have to show that they can handle playing as a wing, because we're going to see 25-30 minutes per game with a two-guard lineup. And two of Smith, Scheyer, and Williams are going to have to show that they can be consistent playmakers (either in the point guard role or as more of a lead guard) to offset both the loss of Henderson and the lack of a point guard. And at least two of Zoubek, Thomas, and the Plumlees are going to need to show they can be regular contributors in the post.

[Kedsy]

See- Jon Scheyer (2007-2008)

Sometimes it DOES NOT make more sense to start the 5 guys who will receive the most minutes.

I agree sometimes it does not make sense. I also believe, however, that kids' egos are sensitive things and you should only ask them to sublimate themselves if you have a good reason. And I'm not sure I buy the reasons people are proffering.



The problem with the second faction of "start all 3 guards" is their rejection of this mathematical probabilities.

I agree with this. As previous posters have shown the 3 guards will probably only play together for 15 minutes, give or take. However, it would not be unreasonable for these to be the first few and last few minutes of each half.



NUMEROUS:
1) Foul Trouble
2) Injury Exposure
3) PRACTICE!!!!
4) Fitness
5) Matchups


Out of these, the only one I buy is matchups. Clearly we will and should have different starting lineups depending on matchups. But how will starting vs. coming into the game 5 minutes later change a player's exposure to fouls or injuries? That one doesn't make sense to me. And if you assume the total minutes played by each player are going to be the same, how does fitness play into this at all?

The practice argument is not persuasive, either, at least to me. If K believes a certain starting lineup gives him the best chance to win, is it more likely he abandons it because it makes it harder for the teams in practice scrimmages to be divvied up the way he usually does it, or is it more likely he changes the way he chooses the practice teams? To me, that one's a no-brainer.



Math

Math tells you that the three guards can only play together for 15 minutes. It does not have any bearing on when those minutes can or should occur.



No, and I hate it when people do this. K obviously doesn't care what we think about rotations. Claiming that somebody is wrong in some way because it won't affect K's decisions stinks of desperation. It's like saying, "Nu-uh, you're wrong and nobody even cares about that anyways."

Well, I apologize if that's the way you took my post. What bothered me was when you seemed to dismiss reasonable arguments and suggest they be shouted down.

[BlueintheFace]

I agree sometimes it does not make sense. I also believe, however, that kids' egos are sensitive things and you should only ask them to sublimate themselves if you have a good reason. And I'm not sure I buy the reasons people are proffering.



I agree with this. As previous posters have shown the 3 guards will probably only play together for 15 minutes, give or take. However, it would not be unreasonable for these to be the first few and last few minutes of each half.



Out of these, the only one I buy is matchups. Clearly we will and should have different starting lineups depending on matchups. But how will starting vs. coming into the game 5 minutes later change a player's exposure to fouls or injuries? That one doesn't make sense to me. And if you assume the total minutes played by each player are going to be the same, how does fitness play into this at all?

The practice argument is not persuasive, either, at least to me. If K believes a certain starting lineup gives him the best chance to win, is it more likely he abandons it because it makes it harder for the teams in practice scrimmages to be divvied up the way he usually does it, or is it more likely he changes the way he chooses the practice teams? To me, that one's a no-brainer.



Math tells you that the three guards can only play together for 15 minutes. It does not have any bearing on when those minutes can or should occur.



Well, I apologize if that's the way you took my post. What bothered me was when you seemed to dismiss reasonable arguments and suggest they be shouted down.

Kedsy, It appears to me that you DO NOT fall in the second faction that I said would be "shouted down." I think our only disagreement is about the first five minutes of the game. As I have said, reasonable points can be made on both sides of this issue.

[Kedsy]

So by your own logic, the first minute should be more likely to be played by only two guards.

Well, you may be right. I guess I should have phrased it in terms of what particular lineup is the most likely to be out on the floor during any random minute. If the three guards will be out there together for 15 minutes -- presumably with Kyle as well, although obviously that's not necessarily true -- will any other configuration be out there more? Saying a two guard lineup will be out there for 25 minutes doesn't necessarily answer the question because, for example, Nolan, Jon, and Ryan is a very different dynamic than Nolan, Elliot, and Lance.

So it's possible that no other particular lineup will be on the floor more than the three guard plus Kyle lineup, in which case I think my argument still holds true. But I really have no idea if that will be the case, so I suppose I'll have to concede that point.

[Kedsy]

Kedsy, It appears to me that you DO NOT fall in the second faction that I said would be "shouted down." I think our only disagreement is about the first five minutes of the game. As I have said, reasonable points can be made on both sides of this issue.

OK, sorry if I appeared argumentative.

[CDu]

So it's possible that no other particular lineup will be on the floor more than the three guard plus Kyle lineup, in which case I think my argument still holds true. But I really have no idea if that will be the case, so I suppose I'll have to concede that point.

I don't think ANY lineup will average more than 8-10 minutes per game. As noted, the 3-guard lineup can only be on the floor together for 15 minutes max. But that ignores the fact that the other two spots wouldn't likely be constant.

In fact, I'd expect Singler to get most (if not all) of his rest when the three guards are in the game. The reasoning being that I'd want Singler to be the third "wing" whenever there are only two guards. I would feel very uncomfortable if we had only two of Smith/Williams/Scheyer/Singler on teh floor, because that means we'd have three of our weakest (and/or most inexperienced) players out there together.

So I'd expect Singler to get nearly all of the minutes when there are only two guards, and thus only around 8-10 of the 15 minutes when there are three guards together. So that's the case, we're looking at the possibility that Singler would be playing the plurality of his minutes with a two-guard lineup (if one of the three potential two-guard combinations plays more than 8-10 minutes per game together). If that's the case, then probability would say that we'd be unlikely to see the 3-guard rotation start.

You don't necessarily have to concede though, as it is certainly possible that the most used fivesome could include three guards. However, I certainly don't think it's likely. And if it IS the most used lineup, I doubt it would be by very much.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

I hope Ryan Kelly has a good summer with conditioning and strength training because it would be VERY beneficial to have him come in and give 10-15 minutes off the bench to help Singler. Kyle will be in a different role, probably chasing around smaller players of teams that impose the 3 guard lineup. Not saying he'll be winded, but it will help if Singler can have someone like Kelly come in and give quality minutes to make sure he is fresh. Someone like Kyle, especially this year with G gone, you don't want him to be huffing and puffing, or on the bench in foul trouble. The reason why I say Kelly rather than EWill or Nolan is because I do not think we should be using a 3 guard lineup much at all this year. That is dangerous with no depth. I think in our position, you have to have someone on the bench at all times, or at least most of the time.
Also, Coach K should not be afraid to use Miles and Mason at the same time this year, I would love it!

[RockyMtDevil]

I predict Singler logs more minutes played than anyone in the last 20 years, even more than Battier and JJ did their Sr. years...I wouldn't be surprised to see him bring the ball up the court some as well, ala Turkiglu (sp) with the Magic.

[Bob Green]

I predict Singler logs more minutes played than anyone in the last 20 years, even more than Battier and JJ did their Sr. years...I wouldn't be surprised to see him bring the ball up the court some as well, ala Turkiglu (sp) with the Magic.

I predict Jon Scheyer plays more minutes per game than Kyle Singler.

[Duke #33]

...I wouldn't be surprised to see him bring the ball up the court some as well, ala Turkiglu (sp) with the Magic.

That would be an interesting idea, but it would probably only work in certain situations.

P.S. it's spelled Turkoglu

[SilkyJ]

I predict Jon Scheyer plays more minutes per game than Kyle Singler.

Have to agree with Bob, on this one. We have 3 guards and he's our best one, so he's got the basic math thing going for him. Not to mention our most heady player on both ends of the floor and likely leader of the team. I think Kyle will score more points though, but not by much.

[whereinthehellami]

Have to agree with Bob, on this one. We have 3 guards and he's our best one, so he's got the basic math thing going for him. Not to mention our most heady player on both ends of the floor and likely leader of the team. I think Kyle will score more points though, but not by much.

I don't know if you can say Scheyer is a more heady player than Singler. i think they are both heady players. One in the backcourt and one in the frontcourt. Singler lead the team in rebounding, blocked shots, and was second in steals (great for a frontcourt player). He probably lead in charges also, don't know where that stat can be found? Its great to have both of them on the team at the same time. It should be fun to watch next season.

[Greg_Newton]

I wouldn't be surprised to see him bring the ball up the court some as well, ala Turkiglu (sp) with the Magic.

That is actually a very intruiging idea. I bet we will see K try this at some point, unless Nolan magically develops into a stellar pure PG over the summer. If Singler can improve his handle and quickness over the summer (and this is his main goal, so I'm sure he will), he could be quite effective in that role and could give us a very interesting dynamic.

[ACCBBallFan]

I recognize that coach K plays hs best 5 guys but it is not like that lineup can be out there 35 of the 40 minutes since there is no one to play any of the guard slots the other 5 minutes, before you even consider foul trouble or injuries.

This # of guards and # of forwards discussion gets a little cloudy when Kyle plays WG on Offense and PF on Defense while Lance plays PF on Offense and defends the WG/SF.

without getting into who plays 32 min vs who plays 28, the minutes being discussed could be allocated primaily with a two guard set:

PG - Nolan (25-30) Jon (10-15)
SG - Jon (20) Elliott (20)
WG/SF - Singler (25) Elliott (10) Kelly or Lance (5)
PF - Singler (5-10 in 3 guard set or with Lance on D or Kelly on O)
PF - Mason and Lance/Kelly share (30-35)
C- Zoubs (20) and Miles (20) or split 40 so other manner like 20/15 with Mason moving to 5 spot for 5 min during 3 guard set

Pretty hard to imagine Olek getting much more than a couple minutes from one of these other 9 at WG/SF or PF.

I put more weight into how can the lineup of Nolan-Jon-Elliott-Singler - pick your favorite 5th guy be it (Zoubs, Mason, Miles, Lance) improve practicing against

Curry and four forwards who cannot dribble as well as Kyle (Kelly and other 3 of Zoubs, Mason, Miles, Lance or Olek) unless the coaches suit up which means the forwards do not get the needed practice at their position.

I agee there is a danger of the guards wearing out in practice with only three of them and Curry to play combo guards.

So it is easier to practice the emergency situation where Kyle plays SG than the 3 guards and Kyle plus one simultaneously, if for no other reason than to give one of the 3 guards or Curry a breather (can Olek do that?) or because one or more has a minor injury he is nursing.

With Kyle and perhaps Kelly having such Dunleavy like flexibiloity it is again like having two different guys on the roster, and K has a lot of good options.

[ice-9]

This next season is going to be veeeery interesting from a coaching point of view. How far will Coach K deviate from what he usually does to accommodate for the peculiarities of this incoming team?

First, I am also of the viewpoint that we will play a two guard lineup most of the time. Sure, all three guards will be on the floor during a game, but it wil mostly at the end of games where ball handling is critical. For the majority of the time, we will be seeing two guards plus three big men. Now this is where it gets interesting...

Does Coach K opt to go for a zone defense? Because I think this is the perfect lineup for a traditional zone. All our players are tall and quick for their position: Scheyer, Smith/William, Singler/Thomas/Olek, Kelly/MP2, and Zoubek/MP1. They'll have the length to contest shots and the mobility to cover gaps quickly. My guess he'll go for it more than usual, but it won't be our main defensive identity.

I do think playing our usual aggressive, overplaying perimeter defense is going to be more difficult with a relative big man at the 3, but it can be done. It can be done because unlike last year, we will have two very tall defenders to block/alter shots in the post should an opponent penetrate with two of Kelly/MP2/Zoubek/MP1 playing at almost any given time. My guess this is the defensive scheme that Coach K will go with at first.

However, my personal belief is that a more effective defensive scheme is to play a sagging defense that encourages opponents to shoot (vs. dribble) but which will inhale rebounds like Nigel Dixon in an all you can eat buffet. In other words, an Izzo type defense. This works for several reasons:

- Our team as a whole will be slower but taller. We won't be able to stop penetration if we play too close, but we'll have the length to bother shots even as we sag back

- With three tall players on the floor at (almost) any given time, we should be able to grab every rebound

- We don't really have the personnel to run a fastbreak or capitalize on a turnover. How many times last season did we make a steal only to fail to convert on the other end? If we had a PG like Wall, it might be different, but our guards aren't particularly fantastic on the break

- It's probably in our best interest to keep games to a low scoring affair. That means forcing missed shots instead of generating turnovers and to play a half court offense

If we play the above (or a zone), I could see a player like Kelly contributing valuable minutes. This is a guy who can score in so many ways but whose defensive weaknesses will be minimized in a sagging, rebound focused defense.

[Devilsfan]

Singler could share mins. with R. Kelly while we're playing D-2 and post grad squads during Nov. and Dec. but once the real season starts I think he needs to be in there 38 - 40 mins. That could keep him well rested for the Jan. Feb. and hpoefully long Mar. run as he is that important and that much better than anyone else at his position.

[ACCBBallFan]

Since we all know that coach K does not really coach purely by position, perhaps the best way to predict lineups may be to break the 9 regulars into three groups:

Best 3 Shooters (2 of 3 almost all the time):

Scheyer (35), Singler (35), Kelly (10)

Best 3 On Ball Defenders (2 of 3 almost all the time):

Elliott (30) Nolan (30) Lance (20) or some other combination

Best 3 Big Men (1 of 3 almost all the time):

Zoubek (15), Mason (15) Miles (10) or some other combination

With the only caveat being at least one of Nolan/Jon has to be in game at all times to be the PG.

Kyle could be slotted in any of the 3 categories, maybe even top 3 in any of them, but shooting is what Duke lacks most. Similarly Jon is also a more than decent defender but shooting is the skill set where Jon is definitely top 3.

If you adhere to these principles, it is almost impossible to assemble a terrible combination, though some are better than others. It would also very unusual to find a better combination from the 9 key guys that would not fall within these guidelines.

Best combination would always include Singler and Scheyer and not likely that Kelly would be in top 5 but not a bad thing if he is.

Best combination would always include at least two ball handlers, whether that is Jon and Nolan or Jon and Elliott, maybe all three but then something else suffers.

I know some had proposed a lineup of Nolan-Jon-Elliott-Kyle-Lance which would be very good to shake things up a couple minutes with full court press, but then the 5 best defenders all wear out at same time. Why recruit bigs if their only purpose other than practice players with Curry and Olek is to sit on bench and block the views of the Crazies?

Even looking only at height, only guys shorter than Lance are Nolan, Elliott, Jon and Olek who won’t play much. It’s not like Lance is that much better a leaper or rebounder than either of the Plumlees or Kelly who are all a couple inches taller and weigh as much or more. So it implies all three of their defense is so much worse, and whatever in the paint Offense they bring is no better than Lance.

Surely one will surface, or Zoubek except vs. guys like Monroe from G-town or Sims from Michigan who are too mobile with good range for Z but probably not true for at least one of the Plumlees, or even Olek who has about 20 pounds and hops on Lance, and is only an inch shorter, assuming he learned something about court awareness this past year to supplement his dunking skills.

So with respect to starters and key end of game situations, I think everybody agrees Jon and Kyle are two of the five, at least one of Nolan/Elliott is a third member just for two guards/ball handlers except in emergency when Kyle would have to be SG.

Not too bad a lineup regardless of whether fourth is Lance if he improves on FT’s or the other of Elliott (ditto on FT improvement needed)/Nolan, but if both of them, that means None of the Plumlees or Zoubek can man the post better than Lance, and Duke is in trouble getting past first round of NCAAs.

On the other hand, not a bad problem to have if

Two Plumlees and Singler-Scheyer and (Nolan/Elliott) or

Z-Plumlee-Kyle-Jon-(Nolan/Elliott) is best combo

Since that means at least one of the Plumlees is playing better than Lance who is a known steady entity, just not a center.

A slight variation off that that goes by position would be:

Guards (Min 2 of 3, Max 3 of 3)

Jon(35), Nolan (30), Elliott (30)

Biggest Guys (Min 2 of 4, Max 3 of 4)
Kyle (35), Zoubek (15), Mason (15), Miles (10) or some other combination of splitting the non Singler minutes

Duke could get by with just these seven and having Lance as defender alternate (assigned to SF, PF or even SG) and Kelly as shooter alternate (WF/SF)

With the way coach K does not really go by position, better to think of Lance as the guy who comes into game when Nolan/Elliott take a rest along with other substitutions most likely or moving somebody around.

Similarly Kelly is either a zone buster along with Kyle and Jon or comes in when one of them needs a breather, with other substitutions most likely or moving somebody around.

Nolan – PG
Jon – PG/SG
Elliott – SG/WG
Kyle – WF/PF
Mason – PF/C
Miles – PF/C
Zoubs - C

Tweeners/Specialists (1 of 3 either Lance for Defense or Kelly for Offense when 2 guards, none of 3 when 3 guards, none of 3 when 3 Bigs, and never all three at same time since Olek won’t play much among other reasons):

Lance (20), Kelly (15) with cameo appearances by Olek

If you were to group the Duke roster by Height/Weight, Lance is the fourth smallest under either method of summing height plus weight or rank ordering Height and rank ordering Weight separately and then summing the two rankings.

Zoubek
Miles
Mason

Kyle
Olek (probably won’t play much)
Kelly

Lance
Jon
Elliott
Nolan

Or

Zoubek
Olek (probably won’t play much)
Miles

Kyle
Mason
Kelly

Lance
Jon
Elliott
Nolan

Blue-White matchups

PG – Smith/Curry
SG – Williams/Scheyer
WF – Kelly (Czyz)/ Thomas
PF – Singler / Mason Plumlee
C –Zoubek (Czyz)/Miles Plumlee

[SilkyJ]

^ interesting breakdown and way of looking at things.

I would definitely think that the group "Best ballhandlers" also needs to have some consideration as we will need probably 2-3 on the floor at any time.

That group would undoubtedly be Nolan, Jon, Kyle, and I think elliot deserves to be there, though I'm not totally sure. It will be interesting to see how much PG elliot plays next year, I'm not expecting much, but the staff did recruit him to play SG and some PG so we'll see...I just dont remember him being that great of a handler.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

let's pray duke has a walk-on thats is a great b-ball player lol Guard or Forward lol

[ACCBBallFan]

SilkyJ - I think that takes care of iteself with only three combo guards eligible, at least two will always be in the game @ PG/SG.

Even if all three averages 30 minutes, with 80 by default at PG/SG and only 10 (perhaps 15 if Scheyer plays 35 instead of 30) with Elliott at WG, whether as a starter or reserve who cares, and 25 (more than half the time) without a 3-guard lineup.

PG - Nolan (30) Jon (10)
SG - Jon (20-25) Elliott (15-20)
WG - Elliott (10-15)

The other 25-30 minutes not played by Elliott are hard to classify as a position since Singler plays SF on Offense and PF on Defense while Lance is mirror image WF on Defense and an undersized PF on Offense.

So the other 25-30 on Defense are probably Lance for about 20 and Kelly/Olek for 5-10.

Lance's 20 tend to happen during Nolan's 10 minutes of rest and also during Elliott's 10 minutes of rest since as you say one of them is in the game with Jon Scheyer for ball handling for the 10 minutes the other rests.

During Jon's 5-10 minutes of rest both Nolan and Elliott are in the game.

Singler also plays 30- 35 minutes and the other 45-50 are shared by Zoubek and the two Plumlees, unless Kelly/Olek can compete for some of those PF minutes.

A concern besides the obvious if a combo guard is injured or in foul trouble, would be that two of the three best defenders Elliott and Lance struggle to make 50% FTs and may lose their stall ball minutes to a Plumlee or Kelly.

[m g]

it seems like one of the bigs (the plumlees, zoubek, kelly, possibly thomas depending on how much he's needed defensively) will end up losing out in a big way in PT. a few past teams (02-03 if i remember right) have split a chunk of time between a few underdeveloped big men, but hopefully some players on the 09-10 team will step up and force their less productive players out of minutes.

who do you think steps up, and who do you think will ride the pine?

k's best coaching jobs have come when he plays a short bench, and williams and smith will both benefit tremendously from the extra playing time they'll get on a 3-guard team. this team has a bunch of great defenders and hustle players, and for the first time in awhile, it's balanced. the real question will be getting quality minutes out of lineups that always feature 4 or 5 scoring threats. i really think kelly is the key. if he can be an effective 3, this team will find a satisfactory 5 in one of the plumlees, zoubek, or thomas (in which case singler might defend the 5, etc.)

my guess is that kelly will often end up taking some of thomas and zoubek's minutes (remember, thomas will generally guard the 3 unless he's playing with the 3-guard lineup) simply because he's a threat to score. zoubek and thomas never score, and the main problem on last year's team was that k was forced to use 2 of mcclure, thomas, and zoubek at the same time, leaving only 3 credible scoring htreats. singler and probably both plumlees can handle most college 5's, and given that kelly is 6'10, he can compensate for his speed disadvantage.

kelly did not look great in all of the AS games, but one of the more insightful comments i read about his game at the Nike and McD's games was that he looked uncomfortable in the unstructured showboating style of play. he held himself on the boards against more athletic players (he got 7 and 10 rebounds in those games without playing huge minutes as i recall), and he clearly has shooting ability that will pay off in a structured offense like the one at duke. especially if he is playing with a lineup featuring other proven scorers (and he should always be able to have 3 of the williams/scheyer/singler/smith group on the floor with him), he will be a killer spot up threat, pick and pop guy, and add valuable size as a rebounder.

kelly is not a fully developed prospect, but he should at least be able to handle the ball well enough to play the 3 when other versatile bigs (plumlees, singler) are on the floor to help compensate for his ballhandling. regardless of his athleticism, speed, or size for a PF, he has a definite matchup advantage over most college 3's. thomas, singler, or williams would be a better option on some guys, but kelly's ability to displace a non-factor on offense will overcome that. i think (or maybe just hope) that he will end up getting a lot of court time at the 3 with singler and the plumlees.

things may not pan out this year, but each of the past 3 years, duke has been severely limited by the potential lineups it can put on. sometimes it was post defense, sometimes it was quickness, last year it was post offense, and it was ALWAYS that we were prone to matchup problems. none of those problems exist for this team. we have offensively capable players at every size, versatility on both ends of the floor, and a size advantage that will be exploited in ways that duke fans have forgotten are possible.

i like to think that this assessment honestly takes into account the weaknesses in our players' game (particularly kelly, who we can't even fully evaluate for awhile). i would describe the past three years as projects or challenges for duke and K. we were getting so much out of teams with such basic flaws. this year could be different because it's so much less of challenge and so much more an opportunity. i just feel bad for whichever of those post guys ends up riding the pine.

my hope is that zoubek becomes more of a matchup specialist (like against texas's big dude) and that thomas finds his way into the lineup alongside four offensive threats because of his D and hustle. worst case scenario is that neither of the plumlees or kelly develops into an offensive threat. if that happens, we will be stuck with the exact same scoring problem we had last year. one of them has got to flirt with 9-10 ppg, or at least 15 points per 40 minutes. that's the biggest question mark that the season will turn on, and i think kelly is the guy to do it

[COYS]

it seems like one of the bigs (the plumlees, zoubek, kelly, possibly thomas depending on how much he's needed defensively) will end up losing out in a big way in PT. a few past teams (02-03 if i remember right) have split a chunk of time between a few underdeveloped big men, but hopefully some players on the 09-10 team will step up and force their less productive players out of minutes.

who do you think steps up, and who do you think will ride the pine?

k's best coaching jobs have come when he plays a short bench, and williams and smith will both benefit tremendously from the extra playing time they'll get on a 3-guard team. this team has a bunch of great defenders and hustle players, and for the first time in awhile, it's balanced. the real question will be getting quality minutes out of lineups that always feature 4 or 5 scoring threats. i really think kelly is the key. if he can be an effective 3, this team will find a satisfactory 5 in one of the plumlees, zoubek, or thomas (in which case singler might defend the 5, etc.)

my guess is that kelly will often end up taking some of thomas and zoubek's minutes (remember, thomas will generally guard the 3 unless he's playing with the 3-guard lineup) simply because he's a threat to score. zoubek and thomas never score, and the main problem on last year's team was that k was forced to use 2 of mcclure, thomas, and zoubek at the same time, leaving only 3 credible scoring htreats. singler and probably both plumlees can handle most college 5's, and given that kelly is 6'10, he can compensate for his speed disadvantage.

kelly did not look great in all of the AS games, but one of the more insightful comments i read about his game at the Nike and McD's games was that he looked uncomfortable in the unstructured showboating style of play. he held himself on the boards against more athletic players (he got 7 and 10 rebounds in those games without playing huge minutes as i recall), and he clearly has shooting ability that will pay off in a structured offense like the one at duke. especially if he is playing with a lineup featuring other proven scorers (and he should always be able to have 3 of the williams/scheyer/singler/smith group on the floor with him), he will be a killer spot up threat, pick and pop guy, and add valuable size as a rebounder.

kelly is not a fully developed prospect, but he should at least be able to handle the ball well enough to play the 3 when other versatile bigs (plumlees, singler) are on the floor to help compensate for his ballhandling. regardless of his athleticism, speed, or size for a PF, he has a definite matchup advantage over most college 3's. thomas, singler, or williams would be a better option on some guys, but kelly's ability to displace a non-factor on offense will overcome that. i think (or maybe just hope) that he will end up getting a lot of court time at the 3 with singler and the plumlees.

things may not pan out this year, but each of the past 3 years, duke has been severely limited by the potential lineups it can put on. sometimes it was post defense, sometimes it was quickness, last year it was post offense, and it was ALWAYS that we were prone to matchup problems. none of those problems exist for this team. we have offensively capable players at every size, versatility on both ends of the floor, and a size advantage that will be exploited in ways that duke fans have forgotten are possible.

i like to think that this assessment honestly takes into account the weaknesses in our players' game (particularly kelly, who we can't even fully evaluate for awhile). i would describe the past three years as projects or challenges for duke and K. we were getting so much out of teams with such basic flaws. this year could be different because it's so much less of challenge and so much more an opportunity. i just feel bad for whichever of those post guys ends up riding the pine.

my hope is that zoubek becomes more of a matchup specialist (like against texas's big dude) and that thomas finds his way into the lineup alongside four offensive threats because of his D and hustle. worst case scenario is that neither of the plumlees or kelly develops into an offensive threat. if that happens, we will be stuck with the exact same scoring problem we had last year. one of them has got to flirt with 9-10 ppg, or at least 15 points per 40 minutes. that's the biggest question mark that the season will turn on, and i think kelly is the guy to do it

I'm actually a little surprised that more people haven't talked about Kelly as a potentially significant contributor to next year's team and am glad you made this post. I'm not sure I'm as optimistic as you are about Kelly's ability to adjust to the college game and, in particular, Duke's defense quickly enough to be one of the top seven players on next year's team. However, you make a good point that it is very likely that he will have a number of chances to prove himself simply because he can handle the ball and is a good shooter and free throw shooter. In the event that one of our three guards is in foul trouble or has fouled out, our end of game lineup would consist of two of the guards Scheyer, Elliot, and Nolan plus Singler, and two bigs. Zoubek hit free throws well last year in a very few opportunities, however beyond that our big guys are not good free throw shooters. Neither Lance nor Zoubek handle the ball, either, obviously. If Kelly proves he is able to take care of the ball and hit free throws, he just might prove to be invaluable when we need as many ball handlers and free throw shooters on the court as possible. I would love to see Kelly and Mason step up and push our veterans. I would imagine that the offensive ceilings for both freshman are probably higher than with any of the other bigs currently on the roster (Singler excluded, of course). The question is simply how long it will take them to develop, because we will need both of them in a big way next year.

[dukelifer]

I'm actually a little surprised that more people haven't talked about Kelly as a potentially significant contributor to next year's team and am glad you made this post. I'm not sure I'm as optimistic as you are about Kelly's ability to adjust to the college game and, in particular, Duke's defense quickly enough to be one of the top seven players on next year's team. However, you make a good point that it is very likely that he will have a number of chances to prove himself simply because he can handle the ball and is a good shooter and free throw shooter. In the event that one of our three guards is in foul trouble or has fouled out, our end of game lineup would consist of two of the guards Scheyer, Elliot, and Nolan plus Singler, and two bigs. Zoubek hit free throws well last year in a very few opportunities, however beyond that our big guys are not good free throw shooters. Neither Lance nor Zoubek handle the ball, either, obviously. If Kelly proves he is able to take care of the ball and hit free throws, he just might prove to be invaluable when we need as many ball handlers and free throw shooters on the court as possible. I would love to see Kelly and Mason step up and push our veterans. I would imagine that the offensive ceilings for both freshman are probably higher than with any of the other bigs currently on the roster (Singler excluded, of course). The question is simply how long it will take them to develop, because we will need both of them in a big way next year.

I am expecting that Kelly has a high bball IQ and is coming in with an advanced skill set. He is not as strong as he will be in two years and that will be his biggest problem next year- dealing with much stronger players. But in the offense, he will get shots and his ability to hit threes will make him a weapon. But he will banged a bit and will probably struggle more against very athletic teams until he figures out what he can and cannot do in the college game. But Kelly has excellent basic skills and that will go a long way toward having a successful freshman season.

[Kedsy]

I am expecting that Kelly has a high bball IQ and is coming in with an advanced skill set. He is not as strong as he will be in two years and that will be his biggest problem next year- dealing with much stronger players. But in the offense, he will get shots and his ability to hit threes will make him a weapon. But he will banged a bit and will probably struggle more against very athletic teams until he figures out what he can and cannot do in the college game. But Kelly has excellent basic skills and that will go a long way toward having a successful freshman season.

My guess is Kelly will go as far as his defense allows. We've seen time and again players who appear to be offensively gifted being glued to the Duke bench because of apparent defensive liabilities.

If Kelly can come in and guard either a small, quick forward or a big, strong one, then he'll probably get plenty of minutes. If he can't do either, then I'm not sure how far his offensive skillset alone will take him.

I've only seen him in high school all-star games and you can't tell defense from that, so the way I look at it we'll have to sit back and wait until the Fall to see whether his defensive abilities will allow him time on the court.

Here's hoping...

[ACCBBallFan]

it seems like one of the bigs (the plumlees, zoubek, kelly, possibly thomas depending on how much he's needed defensively) will end up losing out in a big way in PT. ...

williams and smith will both benefit tremendously from the extra playing time they'll get on a 3-guard team. this team has a bunch of great defenders and hustle players, and for the first time in awhile, it's balanced. the real question will be getting quality minutes out of lineups that always feature 4 or 5 scoring threats. i really think kelly is the key. if he can be an effective 3, this team will find a satisfactory 5 in one of the plumlees, zoubek, or thomas (in which case singler might defend the 5, etc.)

I look at your first paragraph the opposite way. Lance is not a scorer, particularly when forced to play center. So I see it as the two Plumlees and Zoubek will compete for the 40 minutes at center slot, not lose minutes that none except Zoubek ever had.

Lance will get his 15-20 minutes, just hopefully not as an imitation center, but more as a McClure clone.

In your second paragraph, it depends on what you mean by 3-guard team. The way I see it is because there are only 3 combo guards eligible to play (with Curry available as 4th guard only to practice but not play), even if they all play 30 minutes, that ends up being 80 minutes across the PG/SG slots and a maximum of 15 if Scheyer plays 35 in a 3-guard set (less than half the time).

I do agree that Nolan/Elliott will benefit by each playing 30 minutes and not having to look over the shoulder if they make a mistake to see Greg or G or Marty or Dave immediately subbing in for them.

I agree Kelly could be a key third outside threat to complement Jon and Kyle but see him getting his 5-10 minutes as a sub for each of them 5 minutes each. If his defense is ahead of the typical freshman big, maybe all 3 at once, but that is pretty optimistic in his first season and only time will tell.

Nolan (30), Jon (35) and Elliott (30) total about 95 minutes.

Singler 35 sums to 130 and leaves 70 of 200 for the other 6 guys.

My guess is Zoubek, and the Plumlees share 40 in post to sum to 170,

and the other 30 go to Lance (15-20) and Kelly (10-15) with crumbs to Olek.

Singler and Scheyer may even play the entire 40 vs. top ACC and in NCAAs, or when someone is not available or not playing adequately.

The other meaning of 3-guard as in formation is difficult to practice with only Seth Curry and 4 forwards to provide daily competition. It' actually easier to practice the emergency Kyle as SG set.

But when 3 guards are in for best 5, Kyle should also be in making it Nolan-Jon-Elliott-Kyle- a Plumlee or Z, even harder to assemble a lineup of Curry-Kelly-Lance-Plumlee-Zoubek/Plumlee (or Olek in one spot).

Lance as the 5th guy is just asking for failure vs. better competition, but Lance as a sub along with other moves to rest Nolan/Elliott 10 minutes each works pretty well, just switching from 3 guard set to 2 guard set.

So Nolan and Elliott snag some of G's and Greg's and Marty's minutes by default, and the balance of G's and McClure's minutes get spread to the two frosh and Miles.

If you prefer McClure's minutes/role goes to Lance and Lance's old minutes/role goes to one of the frosh or Miles.

It is critical that Lance and Elliott improve their FT Accuracy or their end of games minutes will suffer.

[ACCBBallFan]

If you are willing to assume both frosh come in as ready as Kyle or Ed Davis or Hansbrough, you can assemble some really intriguing possibilities

Two guards plus Kelly - Kyle - Plumlee

Two guards plus Kyle - two Plumlees

Two guards/backup combo -Kyle/Kelly - Plumlee/Lance - Zoubek/Plumlee

with backup galore with the other guard, Lance, Zoubek and Olek

or 3 Guards plus Kyle-Plumlee

3 Guards plus Kyle - Zoubek with healthy summer improvement etc.

with more than adequate back up by Lance, a Plumlee or two, or Z,, Kelly and Olek

I just think 3 guards - Kyle - Lance can be improved upon in so many ways. such that the 5 biggest guys other than Kyle are not all on the bench.

With this roster, Lance is a small to mid sized, not a big he was nominally the past couple of years., and people have to adjust their view accordingly.

[roywhite]

My guess is Kelly will go as far as his defense allows. We've seen time and again players who appear to be offensively gifted being glued to the Duke bench because of apparent defensive liabilities.

If Kelly can come in and guard either a small, quick forward or a big, strong one, then he'll probably get plenty of minutes. If he can't do either, then I'm not sure how far his offensive skillset alone will take him.

I've only seen him in high school all-star games and you can't tell defense from that, so the way I look at it we'll have to sit back and wait until the Fall to see whether his defensive abilities will allow him time on the court.

Here's hoping...

Sounds about right. Unfortunately, I think Kelly will be at a significant disadvantage in terms of speed and quickness when matched against John Henson, Tyler Zeller, and Ed Davis. Look around the league and we also see Booker at Clemson; Lawal, Derrick Favors and Aminu at GaTech, his brother Al-Farouq Aminu at Wake, and others. Some tough matchups.

On the other hand, which opponent looks forward to guarding a skilled 6'10" long-range shooter like Kelly?

Kelly's progress will be interesting to watch...and very important to Duke's success.

[ACCBBallFan]

Sounds about right. Unfortunately, I think Kelly will be at a significant disadvantage in terms of speed and quickness when matched against John Henson, Tyler Zeller, and Ed Davis. Look around the league and we also see Booker at Clemson; Lawal, Derrick Favors and Aminu at GaTech, his brother Al-Farouq Aminu at Wake, and others. Some tough matchups.

On the other hand, which opponent looks forward to guarding a skilled 6'10" long-range shooter like Kelly?

Kelly's progress will be interesting to watch...and very important to Duke's success. Henson would be a match up problem for anyone but Duke would counter with Elliott Williams/Lance Thomas now that they do not have to first stop Lawson/Hansbrough/Green, just as UNC would counter with Ginyard verus a quick SF.

With Drew II- Ginyard and three of Henson/Zeller/Davis/Deon, though the other forwards are all very good players, I don't see them as too quick for Singler and a Plumlee or two to handle, and they too would have match up problems with Singler/Zoubek and Plumlees and possibly Kelly.

Remains to be seen how Kelly may fit into that type of competition versus shorter bench vs UNC and NCAA teams. My guess is K will revert to his seniors Lance and Z and one of the Plumlees, to go with 3 guards and Singler for his top 7.

If it turns out two Plumlees and Kelly are better than both seniors, not a bad problem to have.

Olek Czyz is super athletic and who knows if his court awareness has improved with another year of organized ball that he was light on when he arrived. My guess probably another year when two senior forwards and Scheyer, maybe Singler, are gone.

[Newton_14]

Sounds about right. Unfortunately, I think Kelly will be at a significant disadvantage in terms of speed and quickness when matched against John Henson, Tyler Zeller, and Ed Davis. Look around the league and we also see Booker at Clemson; Lawal, Derrick Favors and Aminu at GaTech, his brother Al-Farouq Aminu at Wake, and others. Some tough matchups.

On the other hand, which opponent looks forward to guarding a skilled 6'10" long-range shooter like Kelly?

Kelly's progress will be interesting to watch...and very important to Duke's success.

Regarding Kelly, I am praying the guy can guard. I know we all also want him to bulk up, but oddly enough, in the beginning his lack of bulk may be a plus for him in that he may be quicker at his current weight. The guys you list are likely quicker than him, but hopefully he can hold his own. One plus on the defensive side is his length will help him and may even bail him out at times when he is beat off the dribble.. We really need both him and Mason to be contributors from the get go. I normally state "immediate impact" players meaning they can contribute right away.. but mentioning the words "immediate impact" to some means "instant stars" and that is not my implication at all..

I am looking forward to the season and seeing how K meshes and molds this group into a team.. This is a fun thread, but rather than predicting the starting 5, it would be better to try and predict which 8, 9, or 10 guys will be in the normal rotation once conference games starts. So once we hit the conference games, which guys see playing time in both halves of every game??

I think we can pencil in Jon, Kyle, EWill, Nolan, and Lance, but which 3, 4, or 5 other guys will join them in that "normal rotation"??

[Kedsy]

Regarding Kelly, I am praying the guy can guard. I know we all also want him to bulk up, but oddly enough, in the beginning his lack of bulk may be a plus for him in that he may be quicker at his current weight. The guys you list are likely quicker than him, but hopefully he can hold his own. One plus on the defensive side is his length will help him and may even bail him out at times when he is beat off the dribble.. We really need both him and Mason to be contributors from the get go. I normally state "immediate impact" players meaning they can contribute right away.. but mentioning the words "immediate impact" to some means "instant stars" and that is not my implication at all..

I am looking forward to the season and seeing how K meshes and molds this group into a team.. This is a fun thread, but rather than predicting the starting 5, it would be better to try and predict which 8, 9, or 10 guys will be in the normal rotation once conference games starts. So once we hit the conference games, which guys see playing time in both halves of every game??

I think we can pencil in Jon, Kyle, EWill, Nolan, and Lance, but which 3, 4, or 5 other guys will join them in that "normal rotation"??


Well, not counting Seth Curry there will only be ten scholarship players on next year's Duke team, so if there are 10 in the rotation, it won't be too hard to predict.

The five you haven't mentioned are Z (who will be a senior and will at least play some), the two Plumlees, Ryan Kelly, and Olek. Since we can't know until October (or later) whether the two freshmen and/or Olek can play defense well enough to earn minutes, and any ideas about Miles would be little more than a wild guess, I don't see how anybody could answer your question.

[BlueintheFace]

Dunleavy wasn't exactly a physical specimen and that worked out alright... I'm just saying.

Kelly loves the pull-up midrange and the three pointer... I don't see him attacking the basket much next year when he is on the floor.

[Devilsfan]

Kelly like so many Duke athletes are such nice kids. Coming from such a great family you wouldn't expect anything different. I wish we could make him a little "meaner" on the court than I saw in the recent all-star games. Develop that "killer" instinct that a JWill, Laetner, JJ, Childress from Wake had. Kyle and Jon seem to posses it. That desire to mix it up and not always settle for the mid to long range jumpers. I hope it's contageous because he could be great, imho.

[ACCBBallFan]

Well, not counting Seth Curry there will only be ten scholarship players on next year's Duke team, so if there are 10 in the rotation, it won't be too hard to predict.

The five you haven't mentioned are Z (who will be a senior and will at least play some), the two Plumlees, Ryan Kelly, and Olek. Since we can't know until October (or later) whether the two freshmen and/or Olek can play defense well enough to earn minutes, and any ideas about Miles would be little more than a wild guess, I don't see how anybody could answer your question.

well said, and I would add don't put a lot of faith in summer pick up games reports, where Okek will again excel. As with All Star games, Kelly may not stand out other than height wise, but in a team structure he may fare better and Olek may fare worse.

I would think the 3 seniors, the two juniors and Elliott are automatic for 6 of top 8 (the 3 guards by default, but also because they are 3 of Duke's 4 best).

The other two will come from whoever outpaces the other two across [the two Plumlees, Kelly and Olek], with that also possibly being the order, but too early to tell.

Sure G is a big loss but having so much backup to prevent Kyle or Lance ever having to defend the post guy can be a big plus.

[DukieInBrasil]

I´m not suggesting that this would be the starting line-up but we may see Duke go super-huge at times this year. imagine: Scheyer (6´6) Singler (6´9), and any 3 of LT (6´8) Mason (6´10) / Miles (6´11) / Kelly (6´10) / Z (7´1) - on the floor together.
How on earth could this work? well, Jon would be the PG and Kyle is a good passer and ball-handler so he could play a hybrid SG/SF while all of Miles-Mason-Ryan get praise for being mobile with good handles for big ´uns with the ability to hit jumpers, ie, shoot outside of the lane. LT is no PG but he is a very active defender and can put the ball on the floor for a drive from the elbow and Z is a decent passer out of the post.
So it would most likely be Jon and Kyle + 2 of Miles/Mason/Ryan and either Z or LT, if Duke was to go for a super-huge line-up.

[SilkyJ]

I´m not suggesting that this would be the starting line-up but we may see Duke go super-huge at times this year. imagine: Scheyer (6´6) Singler (6´9), and any 3 of LT (6´8) Mason (6´10) / Miles (6´11) / Kelly (6´10) / Z (7´1) - on the floor together.
How on earth could this work? well, Jon would be the PG and Kyle is a good passer and ball-handler so he could play a hybrid SG/SF while all of Miles-Mason-Ryan get praise for being mobile with good handles for big ´uns with the ability to hit jumpers, ie, shoot outside of the lane. LT is no PG but he is a very active defender and can put the ball on the floor for a drive from the elbow and Z is a decent passer out of the post.
So it would most likely be Jon and Kyle + 2 of Miles/Mason/Ryan and either Z or LT, if Duke was to go for a super-huge line-up.

Can you imagine if b/c of foul trouble, or illness, or injury or whatever to one of our 3 guards that Kyle or Kelly had to slide down and play the 2 guard?! What a crazy matchup that would be. Imagine playing wake (if teague comes back) and they play ish smith at point with teague at SG, and teague has to guard kyle? I smell NBA mismatch schemes...

[Kedsy]

I´m not suggesting that this would be the starting line-up but we may see Duke go super-huge at times this year. imagine: Scheyer (6´6) Singler (6´9), and any 3 of LT (6´8) Mason (6´10) / Miles (6´11) / Kelly (6´10) / Z (7´1) - on the floor together.
How on earth could this work? well, Jon would be the PG and Kyle is a good passer and ball-handler so he could play a hybrid SG/SF while all of Miles-Mason-Ryan get praise for being mobile with good handles for big ´uns with the ability to hit jumpers, ie, shoot outside of the lane. LT is no PG but he is a very active defender and can put the ball on the floor for a drive from the elbow and Z is a decent passer out of the post.
So it would most likely be Jon and Kyle + 2 of Miles/Mason/Ryan and either Z or LT, if Duke was to go for a super-huge line-up.

Have Jon, Kyle, and Miles grown since last fall? Scheyer is listed at 6'5", Singler at 6'8", and Miles Plumlee at 6'10". I also hear Kelly is only 6'9".

But putting aside the extra inches, your point is a good one. The question is how well a big group like that could play defense. Can Lance guard the other team's point guard? If so, and if Kyle can guard the 3 (or alternatively if Elliot plays in a lineup like this, rather than Jon, then he can guard the point with Lance on the 2), then this lineup will really wear out a a lot of teams.

It's very tiring to guard a bigger player (or even a taller player who's not all that big) because you have to push them constantly to keep them from getting the ball in an easy scoring position. Plus you can't easily block, or even bother, their shot.

Personally, I'm looking forward to seeing at least a few minutes a game with this sort of alignment. It'll be an interesting change from Duke being the team who has to always play small against the likes of Florida State, etc.

[UrinalCake]

Imagine playing wake (if teague comes back) and they play ish smith at point with teague at SG, and teague has to guard kyle? I smell NBA mismatch schemes...

Unfortunately the mismatch goes both ways. As a previous poster mentioned, this would be a good scenario for a zone defense.

I find it really interesting that Kyle is naturally a 4, yet spent most of his freshman year playing the 5 and will spend a lot of next year playing the 3. I see him as being a 3/4 in the NBA so this year should be good preparation for him.

[ACCBBallFan]

I´m not suggesting that this would be the starting line-up but we may see Duke go super-huge at times this year. imagine: Scheyer (6´6) Singler (6´9), and any 3 of LT (6´8) Mason (6´10) / Miles (6´11) / Kelly (6´10) / Z (7´1) - on the floor together.
How on earth could this work? well, Jon would be the PG and Kyle is a good passer and ball-handler so he could play a hybrid SG/SF while all of Miles-Mason-Ryan get praise for being mobile with good handles for big ´uns with the ability to hit jumpers, ie, shoot outside of the lane. LT is no PG but he is a very active defender and can put the ball on the floor for a drive from the elbow and Z is a decent passer out of the post.
So it would most likely be Jon and Kyle + 2 of Miles/Mason/Ryan and either Z or LT, if Duke was to go for a super-huge line-up.

Contrary to prior seaspons, Lance at 6'8" 220 and Olek at 6'7" 240 are in the lower half body size wise of Duke 2009-2010 roster, with the three guards.

The top half is Zoubek, the two Plumlees, Kyle and Kelly with only Kyle being 6'9" and the others at least 6'10" though Kyle has weight on everybody but Zoubek, Olek and possibly Miles.

So better to think of Lance as defensive WF or small PF, who could even guard a SG if necessary, like McClure, not as an emergency center alternating with Zoubek, by default the prior years at Duke.

[Kedsy]

The other interesting thing about possibly playing a tall, one-guard lineup is that if we can do that for even 5 minutes a game, it changes the math so that the three guard lineup can play 20 or 25 minutes. Which, going back to our earlier discussion, I think is a good thing.

Also, if you're interested in having Lance and Ryan Kelly practice against smaller, quicker players, if they're on the blue team (presumably guarding Elliot and Jon) then making practice squads (with a three-guard white team) doesn't seem so impossible any more.

[CDu]

The other interesting thing about possibly playing a tall, one-guard lineup is that if we can do that for even 5 minutes a game, it changes the math so that the three guard lineup can play 20 or 25 minutes. Which, going back to our earlier discussion, I think is a good thing.

Also, if you're interested in having Lance and Ryan Kelly practice against smaller, quicker players, if they're on the blue team (presumably guarding Elliot and Jon) then making practice squads (with a three-guard white team) doesn't seem so impossible any more.

I like the creativity, but I don't think going with a one-guard lineup is an appealing idea at all. I think other teams' smaller guards would exploit guys like Singler, Thomas, and (especially) Kelly, and I don't think Thomas and Kelly would create matchup problems the other way on the perimeter.

We may HAVE to see that lineup at some points this year, but I'd be cringing my way through it.

[MChambers]

I like the creativity, but I don't think going with a one-guard lineup is an appealing idea at all. I think other teams' smaller guards would exploit guys like Singler, Thomas, and (especially) Kelly, and I don't think Thomas and Kelly would create matchup problems the other way on the perimeter.

We may HAVE to see that lineup at some points this year, but I'd be cringing my way through it.

I really don't like it when Duke is slower than the other team, and we'll have that a lot next year. Gonna be interesting to see how our defensive schemes change.

[ACCBBallFan]

The other interesting thing about possibly playing a tall, one-guard lineup is that if we can do that for even 5 minutes a game, it changes the math so that the three guard lineup can play 20 or 25 minutes. Which, going back to our earlier discussion, I think is a good thing.

Also, if you're interested in having Lance and Ryan Kelly practice against smaller, quicker players, if they're on the blue team (presumably guarding Elliot and Jon) then making practice squads (with a three-guard white team) doesn't seem so impossible any more.Probably not Kelly guarding Jon/Elliott, but perhaps Olek and Lance with Curry and two Plumlees/Kelly guarding Nolan-Jon-Elliott and Singler/Zoubek(a Plumlee) could provide challenge on Offesnsive end of the floor but do nothing to help the three guard set practice to improve their defense as a unit.

It is nowhere near what they will face in game competition, unless assistant coaches partake til they get winded.

[Kedsy]

I really don't like it when Duke is slower than the other team, and we'll have that a lot next year. Gonna be interesting to see how our defensive schemes change.

See, that's the thing. Playing slower but bigger for 5 minutes would allow our quickest lineup in the game for 20 or 25. Personally, I think it's at least worth trying.

[CDu]

See, that's the thing. Playing slower but bigger for 5 minutes would allow our quickest lineup in the game for 20 or 25. Personally, I think it's at least worth trying.

So you're basically using 5 minutes per game being really slow for an extra 5 minutes per game to match up normally (and theoretically have a slight talent advantage). I don't think that's really gaining us anything, and it may make us worse off.

I think our best bet is to hope that Singler and Thomas can make the transition to playing a solid wing game, and go with that for 25 minutes and the three guard lineup the rest of the way.

[Kedsy]

So you're basically using 5 minutes per game being really slow for an extra 5 minutes per game to match up normally (and theoretically have a slight talent advantage). I don't think that's really gaining us anything, and it may make us worse off.

I think our best bet is to hope that Singler and Thomas can make the transition to playing a solid wing game, and go with that for 25 minutes and the three guard lineup the rest of the way.

Well I don't think a lineup, for example, of Jon (or Elliot or Nolan; I don't think it matters which guard plays in this scenario, although for the one guard to be Elliot he'd have to show more point guard skills than he did last year) plus Kyle, Lance, and both Plumlees would be "really slow." I actually think that lineup would get up and down the floor very well.

As far as having quick enough feet to defend the other team's wings, that would depend on the opponent. In some games the one guard option just won't be available. But if our "best bet" is to play Lance and Kyle on the wing (as you suggest) why would it be so much worse to do it with one guard than with two?

[DDB4208]

I was reading this forum and it got me wondering how the minutes will break down next year. I know some people won't care and others may think that there's too many variables but before you criticize, read my reasoning.

The following is how I think the minutes will turn out in big games/close games/ncaa games/unc games. It is not how many min I think each player will average. And as you can see I think we'll have a 8 to 9 man rotation.

This is how I divided the minutes. Since we are only playing 4 people in the 1,2,3 positions (Jon, Email, Nolan and Kyle), 120 minutes should go to the guards. But that way, Nolan and Email get about 25 min of PT (which won't happen in the NCAA/UNC games). So I thought that when either Jon, Email or Nolan is out for a breather, Kyle will play the 3 (23 minutes. 62% of Kyle's total minutes). When Jon, Nolan and E-mail are all in, Kyle will play the 4. And of course Kyle will catching his breath for about 3 minutes in the big games. When Kyle is playing the 3 Lance will be 4 (his natural position). And then Zou, MP1 and MP2 will fight over the 5 position when Lance isn't in. And Ryan Kelly will play 4 when Kyle and Lance need breaks.

Starters
PG - Nolan - 31 min
SG- Jon - 36 min
SF - Kyle - 37 min
PF - Lance - 26 min
C - Miles -12 min

Bench
E-mail - 30 min
Mason - 12 min
Zou - 10 min
Rkelly - 6 min

[ACCBBallFan]

I was reading this forum and it got me wondering how the minutes will break down next year. I know some people won't care and others may think that there's too many variables but before you criticize, read my reasoning.

The following is how I think the minutes will turn out in big games/close games/ncaa games/unc games. It is not how many min I think each player will average. And as you can see I think we'll have a 8 to 9 man rotation.

This is how I divided the minutes. Since we are only playing 4 people in the 1,2,3 positions (Jon, Email, Nolan and Kyle), 120 minutes should go to the guards. But that way, Nolan and Email get about 25 min of PT (which won't happen in the NCAA/UNC games). So I thought that when either Jon, Email or Nolan is out for a breather, Kyle will play the 3 (23 minutes. 62% of Kyle's total minutes). When Jon, Nolan and E-mail are all in, Kyle will play the 4. And of course Kyle will catching his breath for about 3 minutes in the big games. When Kyle is playing the 3 Lance will be 4 (his natural position). And then Zou, MP1 and MP2 will fight over the 5 position when Lance isn't in. And Ryan Kelly will play 4 when Kyle and Lance need breaks.

Starters
PG - Nolan - 31 min
SG- Jon - 36 min
SF - Kyle - 37 min
PF - Lance - 26 min
C - Miles -12 min

Bench
E-mail - 30 min
Mason - 12 min
Zou - 10 min
Rkelly - 6 min

I think your total minutes for Lance plus Zoubek is about right @ 36, maybe a little low. I think they each play 18-20.

I would hope all 40 of the center minutes are shared across the two Plumlees and Zoubek, not Kyle and not Lance who is the fourth smallest guy on the team. Maosn could also log some minutes @ PF when Kyle rests.

Instead of shoe horning Lance into role he has been forced to play in past 3 years, think of new Lance this year as the McClure replacement, with the Plumlees/Kelly being the old Lance replacement.

Total minutes for the 3 guards @ 97 is about right meaning 80 at PG/SG and 13 at WG. That leaves 27 minues for Lance on defense of SF and Kelly/Olek on Offense.

[CDu]

Well I don't think a lineup, for example, of Jon (or Elliot or Nolan; I don't think it matters which guard plays in this scenario, although for the one guard to be Elliot he'd have to show more point guard skills than he did last year) plus Kyle, Lance, and both Plumlees would be "really slow." I actually think that lineup would get up and down the floor very well.

By slow, I meant in the half-court sense. There's not a team in the ACC that wouldn't exploit Singler/Kelly/Thomas off the dribble at the 2 spot. Running the length of the court isn't commonly an issue in basketball. It's lateral quickness and explosiveness that matter. Those guys would get toasted off the dribble against smaller two guards.


As far as having quick enough feet to defend the other team's wings, that would depend on the opponent. In some games the one guard option just won't be available. But if our "best bet" is to play Lance and Kyle on the wing (as you suggest) why would it be so much worse to do it with one guard than with two?

It's one thing to have ONE of Singler and Thomas guarding a wing. It's another thing to have BOTH of them guarding the wing. It's not ideal to have one of them doing it for extended minutes, but most teams have a wing that we could "hide" our forward against. Forcing both Singler and Thomas to guard wings pretty much guarantees a big mismatch advantage for the other team's wings that is much harder to hide and thus much easier for the opponent to exploit.

[Kedsy]

It's one thing to have ONE of Singler and Thomas guarding a wing. It's another thing to have BOTH of them guarding the wing. It's not ideal to have one of them doing it for extended minutes, but most teams have a wing that we could "hide" our forward against. Forcing both Singler and Thomas to guard wings pretty much guarantees a big mismatch advantage for the other team's wings that is much harder to hide and thus much easier for the opponent to exploit.

I think Lance Thomas might surprise you next year. Obviously we'll have to wait and see.

[CDu]

I think Lance Thomas might surprise you next year. Obviously we'll have to wait and see.

I certainly hope so. Although nothing I've seen suggests he'll be comfortable guarding shooting guards. Hopefully he'll be capable of guarding bigger shooting guards (college '3's), because I do think he and Singler will have to do a fair amount of that.

I think we'll see two guards for 40 minutes (barring injuries and severe foul trouble), three guards for 5-15 minutes, and Singler/Thomas at the 3 for 25-35 minutes. In the frontcourt, I expect Singler, Thomas, and Kelly to see basically all 40 minutes at the forward spot, and Zoubek and the Plumlees to see the minutes at the center spot.

[DDB4208]

I certainly hope so. Although nothing I've seen suggests he'll be comfortable guarding shooting guards. Hopefully he'll be capable of guarding bigger shooting guards (college '3's), because I do think he and Singler will have to do a fair amount of that.

I don't think that Lance will get significant minutes at guarding the 3 at all. I think the closest thing he will do is guard the Trapani kid from BC, who was a 3/4 who could post up, shoot threes and drive.


I think we'll see two guards for 40 minutes (barring injuries and severe foul trouble), three guards for 5-15 minutes, and Singler/Thomas at the 3 for 25-35 minutes. In the frontcourt, I expect Singler, Thomas, and Kelly to see basically all 40 minutes at the forward spot, and Zoubek and the Plumlees to see the minutes at the center spot.

What do you mean by "two guards for 40 minutes (barring injuries and severe foul trouble), three guards for 5-15 minutes, and Singler/Thomas at the 3 for 25-35 minutes."? Maybe I'm reading it wrong but it sounds like your saying we will have two guards playing basically the entire game. and 3 other guards playing 5-15 minutes. Thats 5 guards and we only have 3 guards.

Please explain.

[blueprofessor]

InsideMDSports.com
HondoHeel:
" Default Elliot Williams considering transfer from Duke?
http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/e...71764/15297431

How awesome would that be? It would leave Nolan Smith and Scheyer as the only guards on the roster."
The Greybeard( see Duke Lacrosse thread) of basketball?

Best--Blueprofessor:)

[blueprofessor]

InsideMDSports.com
HondoHeel:
" Default Elliot Williams considering transfer from Duke?
http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/e...71764/15297431

How awesome would that be? It would leave Nolan Smith and Scheyer as the only guards on the roster."
The Greybeard( see Duke Lacrosse thread) of basketball?

Best--Blueprofessor:)

[DDB4208]

I think your total minutes for Lance plus Zoubek is about right @ 36, maybe a little low. I think they each play 18-20.

I could be wrong but I think you are saying that you think Lance and Z will both play 18-20 minutes. I see it differently.

Lance will get more PT because Kyle is going to play a lot of 3 next year, leaving open a lot of minutes at the 4 or PF position. Lance already averaged 18.6 minutes last year basically as a center. So this year I expect him to get more minutes this year, playing at his natural position.

Zoubek has never played more than 19 minutes in a game in his entire career at Duke, he can't play that much on a consistent basis. I just don't see him increasing his minutes by 55-65% (due to his stamina). I put him down for 10 minutes in our big games, which might be a little low. He averaged about 12 minutes last year, but this year we have 2 more post players, plus an improved Miles Plumlee.

[DDB4208]

InsideMDSports.com
HondoHeel:
" Default Elliot Williams considering transfer from Duke?
http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/e...71764/15297431

How awesome would that be? It would leave Nolan Smith and Scheyer as the only guards on the roster."
The Greybeard( see Duke Lacrosse thread) of basketball?

Best--Blueprofessor:)

That would be not cool, but it's doubtful to actually happen. BTW link didn't work for me.

[blueprofessor]

That would be not cool, but it's doubtful to actually happen. BTW link didn't work for me.

Try this---Look for Hondoheel's celebratory announcement on InsideMDSports.com :
http://www.insidemdsports.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14633

Best--Blueprof:)

[ACCBBallFan]

I could be wrong but I think you are saying that you think Lance and Z will both play 18-20 minutes. I see it differently.

Lance will get more PT because Kyle is going to play a lot of 3 next year, leaving open a lot of minutes at the 4 or PF position. Lance already averaged 18.6 minutes last year basically as a center. So this year I expect him to get more minutes this year, playing at his natural position.

Zoubek has never played more than 19 minutes in a game in his entire career at Duke, he can't play that much on a consistent basis. I just don't see him increasing his minutes by 55-65% (due to his stamina). I put him down for 10 minutes in our big games, which might be a little low. He averaged about 12 minutes last year, but this year we have 2 more post players, plus an improved Miles Plumlee.Yes, that is what I was saying but maybe 15-20 minutes is the better target for both of them, each at their natural position.

Whether you call them #3 or #4, Lance and Kyle can co-exist with Kyle playing #3 on Offense and #4 on Defense while Lance plays #3 on Defense and # 4 on Offense., with Kyle the better long range threat.

With the extra bigs in Plumleees and Kelly, both Lance and Z can afford to play more aggressively with not as much concern that foul trouble for either forces Kyle to have to defend the other team's post guy.

I see Zoubek and the two Plumlees sharing 40 minutes in the post.

Across the #3/#4, I see 3 guard lineup perhaps 10-15 minutes since 80 minutes are consumed @ PG/SG by the three guards. Figure Kyle for 30-35, and that's about 40-50, call it 45, of the 80 minutes accounted for, leaving 25 for Lance to share with Kelly/Olek, unless Mason also gets some of those minutes from all these guys, along with his post minutes.

I expect Kelly/Mason will be more successful getting some of those minutes, than Olek with 15-20 going to Lance and 5-10 going to Kelly/Mason (in addition to his minutes in the post slot) with crumbs to Olek.

So yeh, you may have talked me into 15 minutes each for Lance and Zoubek if the Plumlees and Kelly are good enough to compete this year, as they will in future years especially with Lance and Z being seniors, and possibly Kyle would have moved on.

I don't really see Lance getting 26 and Zoubek only 10, more like 15 apiece or 15 for one and 20 for the other, and perhaps a bit more time to the frosh or Miles, and a hopefully few minutes less for Scheyer and Kyle than 36 or 37 apeice, though against the best competition they may have to play close to all 40.

[DDB4208]

Yes, that is what I was saying but maybe 15-20 minutes is the better target for both of them, each at their natural position.

Whether you call them #3 or #4, Lance and Kyle can co-exist with Kyle playing #3 on Offense and #4 on Defense while Lance plays #3 on Defense and # 4 on Offense., with Kyle the better long range threat.

With the extra bigs in Plumleees and Kelly, both Lance and Z can afford to play more aggressively with not as much concern that foul trouble for either forces Kyle to have to defend the other team's post guy.

I see Zoubek and the two Plumlees sharing 40 minutes in the post.

Across the #3/#4, I see 3 guard lineup perhaps 10-15 minutes since 80 minutes are consumed @ PG/SG by the three guards. Figure Kyle for 30-35, and that's about 40-50, call it 45, of the 80 minutes accounted for, leaving 25 for Lance to share with Kelly/Olek, unless Mason also gets some of those minutes from all these guys, along with his post minutes.

I expect Kelly/Mason will be more successful getting some of those minutes, than Olek with 15-20 going to Lance and 5-10 going to Kelly/Mason (in addition to his minutes in the post slot) with crumbs to Olek.

So yeh, you may have talked me into 15 minutes each for Lance and Zoubek if the Plumlees and Kelly are good enough to compete this year, as they will in future years especially with Lance and Z being seniors, and possibly Kyle would have moved on.

I don't really see Lance getting 26 and Zoubek only 10, more like 15 apiece or 15 for one and 20 for the other, and perhaps a bit more time to the frosh or Miles, and a hopefully few minutes less for Scheyer and Kyle than 36 or 37 apeice, though against the best competition they may have to play close to all 40.

I see what you are saying. It just depends. If we kill the weak teams Jon and Kyle will average less minutes on the season. But in the Championship game of the NCAA's then they will definitely both be playing 37+ min (unless foul trouble or injury) and in terms of Zoubs he will play a good deal if the other team is very small, slow or very big but not if they are fast.

[CDu]

I don't think that Lance will get significant minutes at guarding the 3 at all. I think the closest thing he will do is guard the Trapani kid from BC, who was a 3/4 who could post up, shoot threes and drive.

I agree. I think Thomas will probably play 15-20 minutes at the 4 spot, with Singler playing most of his time at the 3 spot. I was just refuting the idea that Thomas would be playing any at the 2 spot.


What do you mean by "two guards for 40 minutes (barring injuries and severe foul trouble), three guards for 5-15 minutes, and Singler/Thomas at the 3 for 25-35 minutes."? Maybe I'm reading it wrong but it sounds like your saying we will have two guards playing basically the entire game. and 3 other guards playing 5-15 minutes. Thats 5 guards and we only have 3 guards.

Please explain.

You were reading it wrong. I was saying that we will have two or more guards on the floor at all times. We'll have all three guards on the floor for 5-15 minutes per game, but only two guards on the floor the rest of the time. That leaves 25-35 minutes per game at the 3 spot for Singler/Thomas/Kelly/Czyz. I expect Singler to take the vast majority of those minutes, with Thomas filling in for any left over. Then, I expect Singler/Thomas/Kelly to pick up all 40 of the minutes at the 4 spot, and Zoubek and the Plumlees to play the 5 spot.

[The Gordog]

Quote:
Originally Posted by CDu
I think we'll see two guards for 40 minutes (barring injuries and severe foul trouble), three guards for 5-15 minutes, and Singler/Thomas at the 3 for 25-35 minutes. In the frontcourt, I expect Singler, Thomas, and Kelly to see basically all 40 minutes at the forward spot, and Zoubek and the Plumlees to see the minutes at the center spot.


What do you mean by "two guards for 40 minutes (barring injuries and severe foul trouble), three guards for 5-15 minutes, and Singler/Thomas at the 3 for 25-35 minutes."? Maybe I'm reading it wrong but it sounds like your saying we will have two guards playing basically the entire game. and 3 other guards playing 5-15 minutes. Thats 5 guards and we only have 3 guards.

Please explain.

He means at least 2 guards for 40 minutes. The 5-15 min of 3-guard is included in that 40 min.

[DDB4208]

.You were reading it wrong. I was saying that we will have two or more guards on the floor at all times.

Gotcha.

[ACCBBallFan]

I That leaves 25-35 minutes per game at the 3 spot for Singler/Thomas/Kelly/Czyz. I expect Singler to take the vast majority of those minutes, with Thomas filling in for any left over. Then, I expect Singler/Thomas/Kelly to pick up all 40 of the minutes at the 4 spot, and Zoubek and the Plumlees to play the 5 spot.Agreed, except if Miles and Zoubek are up to the post defender task, Mason may also compete with Lance/Kelly for some of those PF minutes aside Singler and either his brother or Z, making for a very big lineup.

So Mason may play 10-15 minutes in 5 spot with Miles/Z each playing 10-15, and Mason may play another 5-10 at PF.

[CDu]

Agreed, except if Miles and Zoubek are up to the post defender task, Mason may also compete with Lance/Kelly for some of those PF minutes aside Singler and either his brother or Z, making for a very big lineup.

So Mason may play 10-15 minutes in 5 spot with Miles/Z each playing 10-15, and Mason may play another 5-10 at PF.

Yes, depending upon his readiness, the younger Plumlee might even steal some minutes at the PF spot.

[SupaDave]

Try this---Look for Hondoheel's celebratory announcement on InsideMDSports.com :
http://www.insidemdsports.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14633

Best--Blueprof:)

You should go to the IC and hold him in contempt! Obviously he's a message board fanatic. Let him get whatever silly joy he can.

[ACCBBallFan]

Yes, depending upon his readiness, the younger Plumlee might even steal some minutes at the PF spot.How is this for a Blue-White matchup

Nolan Smith - Jon Scheyer
Elliott Williams - Seth Curry
Kyle Singler - Ryan Kelly (guarding Mason)
Mason Plumlee - Lance Thomas (guarding Singler)
Miles Plumlee - Brian Zoubek

Or switch Seth- Elliott for balance of 3 point threats, with Elliott then guarding Nolan and Jon guarding Seth, and Olek filling in for whoever needs a breather, probably Zoubek or Kelly.

I started with the premise that Jon and Kyle can't be on same team, and it grew from there.

[CDu]

Across the #3/#4, I see 3 guard lineup perhaps 10-15 minutes since 80 minutes are consumed @ PG/SG by the three guards. Figure Kyle for 30-35, and that's about 40-50, call it 45, of the 80 minutes accounted for, leaving 25 for Lance to share with Kelly/Olek, unless Mason also gets some of those minutes from all these guys, along with his post minutes.

You shortchanged the players by 10 minutes here. 80-45=35. So assuming Zoubek and the Plumlees split 40 minutes at C (a reasonable assumption in my opinion), we're looking at 35 minutes for Thomas/Kelly/Czyz. The question will be how those minutes are divvied up, and that will depend on how good Kelly is.

[Kedsy]

How is this for a Blue-White matchup

Nolan Smith - Jon Scheyer
Elliott Williams - Seth Curry
Kyle Singler - Ryan Kelly (guarding Mason)
Mason Plumlee - Lance Thomas (guarding Singler)
Miles Plumlee - Brian Zoubek

Or switch Seth- Elliott for balance of 3 point threats, with Elliott then guarding Nolan and Jon guarding Seth, and Olek filling in for whoever needs a breather, probably Zoubek or Kelly.

I started with the premise that Jon and Kyle can't be on same team, and it grew from there.

This would be an interesting game to watch. I agree Olek should be the sub for Z's team in this hypothetical matchup. I would keep Elliot and Seth where they are. It's fun to imagine this game.

[ACCBBallFan]

You shortchanged the players by 10 minutes here. 80-45=35. So assuming Zoubek and the Plumlees split 40 minutes at C (a reasonable assumption in my opinion), we're looking at 35 minutes for Thomas/Kelly/Czyz. The question will be how those minutes are divvied up, and that will depend on how good Kelly is.Thanks. You are right, just a typo of 25 when I intended 35.

PG/SG consume 40 minutes from Jon-Elliott and Nolan, with maybe 10-15 minutes left for Elliott to play WF.

That leaves 25-30 of the 40 WF minutes for somebody else at 3 spot, avg = 27.5

Assume Kyle plays 30-35, that leaves 5-10 for somebody else to play combo forward, average = 7.5

Sum 27.5 + 7.5 = 35. so we are saying the same thing if I could type.

Assume Z and Plumlees account for all 40 post minites, with perhaps another 5 at PF going to Mason.

Lance gets 15-20 and Mason 5, leaving 10-15 for Kelly.Olek to share.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Thanks. You are right, just a typo of 25 when I intended 35.

PG/SG consume 40 minutes from Jon-Elliott and Nolan, with maybe 10-15 minutes left for Elliott to play WF.

That leaves 25-30 of the 40 WF minutes for somebody else at 3 spot, avg = 27.5

Assume Kyle plays 30-35, that leaves 5-10 for somebody else to play combo forward, average = 7.5

Sum 27.5 + 7.5 = 35. so we are saying the same thing if I could type.

Assume Z and Plumlees account for all 40 post minites, with perhaps another 5 at PF going to Mason.

Lance gets 15-20 and Mason 5, leaving 10-15 for Kelly.Olek to share.

While I agree with your assessment, the only issue, which is extremely important, is with foul trouble. Scheyer and Nolan aren't that prone to fouling, but Elliott is. If you look at the games when he started, Elliott had 4 fouls in 7 of 12 games. Ouch.

What this means is two things: 1, on-the-ball D will suffer as K won't want his guards to get cheap fouls. 2, if one (or worse, two) of our three guards is in foul trouble or fouled out (which is extremely likely considering the minutes they are playing), then K NEEDS a fourth option. I have no idea who it is, but I'd be surprised if Jordan Davidson took the position. It's for this reason that I think Kelly may actually play a little 2 spot once in a while.

[ACCBBallFan]

While I agree with your assessment, the only issue, which is extremely important, is with foul trouble. Scheyer and Nolan aren't that prone to fouling, but Elliott is. If you look at the games when he started, Elliott had 4 fouls in 7 of 12 games. Ouch.

What this means is two things: 1, on-the-ball D will suffer as K won't want his guards to get cheap fouls. 2, if one (or worse, two) of our three guards is in foul trouble or fouled out (which is extremely likely considering the minutes they are playing), then K NEEDS a fourth option. I have no idea who it is, but I'd be surprised if Jordan Davidson took the position. It's for this reason that I think Kelly may actually play a little 2 spot once in a while.

I believe Jordan Davidson is not available this year due to back problems. With respect to Nolan/Elliott being foul trouble, I think the next best on the ball defender though he plays a different position is Lance (or Kyle), though with Lance that woud also involve other substitutions.

As to who would play the SG if two guards are in foul trouble/unavailable due to injury, my guess is Singler, with Kelly/Olek being the long shots after that.

There were some rumors of a footbal player joining the team after football season, but the way things are going at guard slot, would not be surprised that gets delayded be earning a bowl game slot. Not sure of the player's name or how accomplished a basketball player he is, but at lteast another body to practice, kind of like Jordan davidson was.

While not a proponent of a one guard solution except by necessity, it would present some mismatches both ways, and perhaps be traumatic enough to allow even coach K to play more zone.

[CDu]

I believe Jordan Davidson is not available this year due to back problems. With respect to Nolan/Elliott being foul trouble, I think the next best on the ball defender though he plays a different position is Lance (or Kyle), though with Lance that woud also involve other substitutions.

As to who would play the SG if two guards are in foul trouble/unavailable due to injury, my guess is Singler, with Kelly/Olek being the long shots after that.

There were some rumors of a footbal player joining the team after football season, but the way things are going at guard slot, would not be surprised that gets delayded be earning a bowl game slot. Not sure of the player's name or how accomplished a basketball player he is, but at lteast another body to practice, kind of like Jordan davidson was.

While not a proponent of a one guard solution except by necessity, it would present some mismatches both ways, and perhaps be traumatic enough to allow even coach K to play more zone.

I doubt we have to worry about a bowl game this coming year. We lost a lot of talent last year, and our schedule is going to be tougher. Another 3-4 win season should be looked at as progress, in my opinion.

P.S. - I hope this doesn't become a thread hijack.

[ACCBBallFan]

With coach K formally announcing Kyle will play perimter, the minutes distribution may vary slightly.

The three guards and Singler now consume all 120 minutes at 1-2-3 with perhaps Jon and Kyle (30-35 each) and Nolan and Elliott (25-30) each.

Until more is known I would just split the other 80 PF/C minutes with 5 to Olek and 15 each to Lance, Zobs, the Plumlees and Kelly.

Zoubek 7'1" 280 is Duke's best +/- big guy per Jubo's stats every game

Olek 6'7 240 is second heaviest but lacks court awareness

Miles 6'10 235 or so is Duke's second biggest height/weight combined, and has a year's edge on two frosh

Mason 6'11" 210 is Duke's seocnd tallest and pribably second best shooter among these 6 forwards

Kelly 6'10 210 is probably the best shooter

Lance 6'8 220 is smallest overall height/weight but also best defender probably by quite a bit, though offensively challenged.

So I see it as two seniors with their knowledge of Duke system have the edge to play more than 15 MPG, and other 4 have to out play them to start or to gain their full 15 or more MPG.

Can't really call it small ball since Nolan is only guy under 6'4, but there could be as much as 10-15 minutes where 3 guards and Kyle are all on the floor if Elliott can hit FT's during stall ball and also at start of game/half. That leaves only 65-70 rather than 80 for the six forwards to share across PF/C making it closer to 10 each with only a few hitting 15 mark.

[ACCBBallFan]

Rather than agonize over starters, I like to think of it in terms of minutes played. Let's try it in terms of last year's minutes.

I broke it into sub-groupings, and presumably coach K played Jon-Kyle-Gerald as many minutes as they are capable of last year.

Most would agree it is harder to compete with Gerald and 5th year guy McClure for minutes than it is to compete with two tall thin promising frosh. I know about Paulus senior minutes declining, but don't see that happening with Lance or Zoubek.

08-09 09-10 Player

33 33 Jon Scheyer
32 32 Kyle Singler

20 30 Nolan Smith
16 0 Greg Paulus
15 30 Elliot Williams
4 0 Martynas Pocius
55 60 sub-total

19 20 Lance Thomas
15 0 David McClure
0 10 Ryan Kelly
1 5 Olek Czyz
0 0 Steve Johnson
35 35 sub-total

30 0 Gerald Henderson
12 13 Brian Zoubek
4 12 Miles Plumlee
0 15 Mason Plumlee
46 40 sub-total

201 200 Team

[ACCBBallFan]

I think it helps to think in terms of Kelly being the offensive player Lance has not been and Lance assuming the heady defensive role McClure played.

Then Duke is trading off G's offense where Nolan/Elliott can assume a greater role for more post presence by Mason and Miles, where Duke has been light with no one else to assume much of that role.

[3rd Dukie]

I think our best five players will be Nolan, Jon, Elliot, Kyle and Mason, and we will see that lineup at the end of games...especially as the year goes on. However, I bet the starting lineup will most often be:

PG: Nolan Smith
SG: Jon Scheyer
SF: Kyle Singler
PF: Lance Thomas
C: Mason Plumlee
6th: Elliot Williams

...with the most likely variation being Jon at PG and Elliot at SG, like this year. POSSIBLY Zoubek beating out Mason for C early on, but we're probably in trouble if Mason isn't good enough to take the role early in the season. This roster will certainly present some unique issues and opportunities for K.

Speaking of... you think K would ever consider trying a zone press with this strange roster? I know that sounds blasphemous, not to mention counterintuitive for a team with three guards, but with all of our long and athletic forwards it could be effective (and those Walker/Mercer UK teams in the 90s were always so fun to watch...). Mason or Lance could be very annoying at the top of the press, and we'd have countless big/active bodies to sub in (not to mention two superb on-ball defenders in Elliot and Nolan). My main concern would be potential guard injury/fatigue, even with a two guard lineup.

I think that is a very intriguing question. Your logic seems sound enough.

[ACCBBallFan]

With Jon-Kyle on same team, edge would go to them in Blue-White but it could be fairly competitive:

Nolan Smith - Seth Curry pretty much same size
Jon Scheyer - Elliott Williams pretty much sams size
Kyle Singler 6'9 230 - Ryan Kelly 6' 10 210/Olek Czyz 6'7 240
Lance Thomas 6'8 220 - Miles Plumlee 6'10 235
Mason Plumlee 6'11 210 - Brian Zoubek 7' 1 280

With Lance not being much of an offensive threat, may be tough for Mason to get many good looks vs two bigger guys in his brother and Z. In fact Miles would probably guard Mason, while Z guards Lance.

Good test to see how much defense Kelly/Olek can play. The others 4 vs 4 are pretty even.

[DevilDan]

I haven't been in a very good mood since Gerald made his announcement... mostly because I think the way a lot of YOU think -- NCAA Championship (especially now since the boys down the road won it) The Villanova loss really stung, so it has been a long 9-10 weeks.

But then I watched Coach K's lengthy interview at the camp from last week. I saw his great enthusiasm about working with these new guys; now slowly but surely I am coming out of it... haaaa.

Starting to feel a little more positive, I think everything has a chance to fall into place for a great run, IF Nolan becomes the PG we need him to be. Jon will never hurt us there, but (a) can't beat a defender and create a shot, and (b) being out of position there, the team is giving up 5-6 good looks per game, and 3-4 hoops.

I think Miles is going to give us some production up front, and with Brian give us a solid post presence. Lance has shown flashes only up to now, but his maturity and (I hope) added strength will help us. Kyle is Kyle, and promises (if freed to play his position on the floor) 18 and 10 every game.

Trump Card #2 is MASON, who looks every bit the next future Duke star. I want to see this guy PLAY, if he earns the minutes. But again, Trump Card #1 is Nolan Smith. We need him to be OUR PG, and just make it HAPPEN !

Dickie V's "final four" is a big over the top, but...... like I said, I am starting to feel better about this season ... !

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

does no one believe Elliot may start over Nolan he did later in the year i think it is possible he can start in the beginning of the season. I think if we give him more scoring opportunities earlier in the year he would be great for the whole season

[SilkyJ]

does no one believe Elliot may start over Nolan he did later in the year i think it is possible he can start in the beginning of the season. I think if we give him more scoring opportunities earlier in the year he would be great for the whole season

Sure it could happen, but if that happens it means that Jon is being forced to play point b/c Nolan can't handle it, and that's not something we want. We have a much lower ceiling if Nolan can't run the point. I think Nolan will be better after another off-season of work and will handle the duties fine.

Moreover, they'll both play a ton, probably over 25mpg each, so its not like it matters that much. And I think Elliot will be asked to score quite a bit, he may be the 3rd best scorer on the team after Kyle and Jon.

[CDu]

Sure it could happen, but if that happens it means that Jon is being forced to play point b/c Nolan can't handle it, and that's not something we want. We have a much lower ceiling if Nolan can't run the point. I think Nolan will be better after another off-season of work and will handle the duties fine.

Agreed. I think this team is much better off if Smith can handle the point guard duties, with Scheyer filling in the backup PG duties and taking on a greater scoring role when he's off the ball.


Moreover, they'll both play a ton, probably over 25mpg each, so its not like it matters that much. And I think Elliot will be asked to score quite a bit, he may be the 3rd best scorer on the team after Kyle and Jon.

Again, agreed. Each are going to play starter's minutes by necessity. I think we're going to need both Smith and Williams to take on a bigger scoring role, as they're going to have to offset the loss of Henderson from the perimeter.

[DevilDan]

I came back to check the "fallout" following yesterday's post ... I earlier thought about EWilliams in the equation, but I left him out -- he gives us near lockdown "D", but until he shows the ability to score from different spots on the floor, I just don't see him as a major contributor this coming season -- hope I'm WRONG ! GO DUKE !

[SilkyJ]

but until he shows the ability to score from different spots on the floor, I just don't see him as a major contributor this coming season -- hope I'm WRONG ! GO DUKE !

Well he did pretty well last year taking the ball to the rack, but you're right he needs to diversify his game a little bit (he didn't shoot it particularly well, and got most of his points off drives, and even then I feel like I saw him make a spin move to his left half the time...won't take much time in the film room for others to notice as well.)

Nonetheless, as I said earlier and as CDu more bluntly put it, Elliot will have to play meaningful minutes out of pure necessity. We have 3 guards and that's it.

[DukeBlood]

I came back to check the "fallout" following yesterday's post ... I earlier thought about EWilliams in the equation, but I left him out -- he gives us near lockdown "D", but until he shows the ability to score from different spots on the floor, I just don't see him as a major contributor this coming season -- hope I'm WRONG ! GO DUKE !


Well he did pretty well last year taking the ball to the rack, but you're right he needs to diversify his game a little bit (he didn't shoot it particularly well, and got most of his points off drives, and even then I feel like I saw him make a spin move to his left half the time...won't take much time in the film room for others to notice as well.)

Nonetheless, as I said earlier and as CDu more bluntly put it, Elliot will have to play meaningful minutes out of pure necessity. We have 3 guards and that's it.

Elliot had the second highest FG % out of the guards behind Gerald...

Not alot of guards will be able to stop him due to his athleticism(Similar to Henderson)...

He was only a Freshman, I think its fair to say he may have the most potential on the team as of anyone. He needs to develop a consistent shot to make him even more dangerous.

Patience.. He will be a good one.

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

Elliot had the second highest FG % out of the guards behind Gerald...

Not alot of guards will be able to stop him due to his athleticism(Similar to Henderson)...

He was only a Freshman, I think its fair to say he may have the most potential on the team as of anyone. He needs to develop a consistent shot to make him even more dangerous.

Patience.. He will be a good one.

Gulp.

So, what do folks anticipate for lineups now? I'd assume we have to start Nolan and Jon in the backcourt. Will we see both go 40 minutes every night? Kyle at the 2? I'm flummoxed.

[NSDukeFan]

Gulp.

So, what do folks anticipate for lineups now? I'd assume we have to start Nolan and Jon in the backcourt. Will we see both go 40 minutes every night? Kyle at the 2? I'm flummoxed.

I would say there will be a change in our potential lineups for next year now. Should be interesting. Kyle, Lance and Ryan will likely be playing exclusively on the wings this year and I assume there will be a fair bit of one guard offense with 2 wings. I would guess that Nolan and Jon will get to play all they want (35/per game) this year.

There will not be a whole lot of 3 guard rotations this year.

[roywhite]

Is Jordan Davidson still on the team? Heck, he'll probably need to play 5 minutes or so per game for Nolan and Jon to get a brief rest.

My initial thoughts are that Duke will find ways to adapt to the backcourt shortage and still be good and dangerous, but simply not a candidate for conference or national titles.

On the other hand, it's kind of a wild card year. We may even see "gasp" the use of zone defense on a regular basis.

[SupaDave]

I love how all of a sudden people are saying we will be too big. I liked the line-up before Elliot left and still do. It will make things interesting but also give a chance to have a real seasoned team by year's end. All of a sudden it's looking like we'll need everyone and I'm liking Ryan Kelly on the wing.

Looks like Lance will now become an even more important defender now and I believe we can expect excellence from him in that category next year.

Zoubek looks to have gotten in much better shape and that is highly encouraging.

But wow, we lost our two most athletic players. That hurts.

BUT considering that most teams in the ACC will have to go big next year we wont necessarily have a lot of mis-matches. Besides, with the potential to have four shot blockers in the game at one time that changes the whole dribble-drive theory against us...

[Kedsy]

Is Jordan Davidson still on the team? Heck, he'll probably need to play 5 minutes or so per game for Nolan and Jon to get a brief rest.

My initial thoughts are that Duke will find ways to adapt to the backcourt shortage and still be good and dangerous, but simply not a candidate for conference or national titles.

On the other hand, it's kind of a wild card year. We may even see "gasp" the use of zone defense on a regular basis.

What I think it means is we'll be seeing some one guard lineups, with Kyle and Lance guarding the other team's 2 and 3.

IMO, we would only need zone if Jon is the sole guard and the other team's lead guard is too quick for him. Which doesn't seem like it should happen every game and no more than 5 or so minutes per game when it does. (On the other hand, depending on the opponent I think we could be an effective zone team with Brian in the middle.)

Olek and Ryan need to get up to speed defensively as quickly as possible.

[m g]

now we could really use pocius

[arnie]

I love how all of a sudden people are saying we will be too big. I liked the line-up before Elliot left and still do. It will make things interesting but also give a chance to have a real seasoned team by year's end. All of a sudden it's looking like we'll need everyone and I'm liking Ryan Kelly on the wing.

Looks like Lance will now become an even more important defender now and I believe we can expect excellence from him in that category next year.

Zoubek looks to have gotten in much better shape and that is highly encouraging.

But wow, we lost our two most athletic players. That hurts.

BUT considering that most teams in the ACC will have to go big next year we wont necessarily have a lot of mis-matches. Besides, with the potential to have four shot blockers in the game at one time that changes the whole dribble-drive theory against us...


That is an incredibly optimistic post - I think we are down to 8 scholarship players with one returnee (Zoubek) kind of injury prone. No mismatches?? - how do we guard the 2 or even 3 when Scheyer or Smith are out of the game.

[rotogod00]

That is an incredibly optimistic post - I think we are down to 8 scholarship players with one returnee (Zoubek) kind of injury prone. No mismatches?? - how do we guard the 2 or even 3 when Scheyer or Smith are out of the game.

we don't

[Kedsy]

That is an incredibly optimistic post - I think we are down to 8 scholarship players with one returnee (Zoubek) kind of injury prone. No mismatches?? - how do we guard the 2 or even 3 when Scheyer or Smith are out of the game.

Nine scholarship players, not eight: Scheyer, Thomas, Zoubek, Singler, Smith, MP1, Czyz, MP2, Kelly. (Actually ten, because Curry will be on scholarship although not eligible to play in games.)

As I said in another thread, you are correct that defense is the big question mark. The answer is we'll have to guard the quick 2s and 3s with much taller players who they can't shoot over and then utilize help defenders inside if the small, quick wings drive past us. Will that work? I don't know, but I don't think you can automatically say that it won't.

The thing I think you're overlooking is we will have a lot of size on offense and a lot of teams will have a lot of problems defending us.

[chrisheery]

I'd like to try to convince him that he can actually play at Duke this year.

[Devil07]

defense is the big question mark

There are some SERIOUS defensive issues this team faces, but I wouldn't downplay the offensive question marks we have now either. Namely, how is the team going to score? None of the current big men (other than Singler who now is a 3 on good days, 2 on bad days) have shown any real offensive game. Hopefully the freshmen are capable, but that's asking and assuming a lot. Without G and now Elliot we are desperately short on players who can create and of perimeter threats. Yes we will be tall and in that sense difficult to guard, but that in itself doesn't necessarily translate into offensive success. Frankly, next year's team strikes me somewhat as a less athletic version of some of the recent Florida State teams but minus the Douglas type dominant scoring guard. Even in an ACC that lost a lot of its good guards we look VERY thin and that's assuming that Jon and Nolan can stay healthy and out of foul trouble (which has been a consistent problem for Nolan). I'm confident that Coach K will find a way to make this team competitive but unfortunately I just don't see how this team will be able to compete at an elite level.

If Marty hasn't signed a contract could he enroll in a grad program and still use that last year of eligibility?

[rotogod00]

There are some SERIOUS defensive issues this team faces, but I wouldn't downplay the offensive question marks we have now either. Namely, how is the team going to score? None of the current big men (other than Singler who now is a 3 on good days, 2 on bad days) have shown any real offensive game. Hopefully the freshmen are capable, but that's asking and assuming a lot. Without G and now Elliot we are desperately short on players who can create and of perimeter threats. Yes we will be tall and in that sense difficult to guard, but that in itself doesn't necessarily translate into offensive success. Frankly, next year's team strikes me somewhat as a less athletic version of some of the recent Florida State teams but minus the Douglass type dominant scoring guard. Even in an ACC that lost a lot of its good guards we look VERY thin and that's assuming that Jon and Nolan can stay healthy and out of foul trouble (which has been a consistent problem for Nolan). I'm confident that Coach K will find a way to make this team competitive but unfortunately I just don't see how this team will be able to compete at an elite level.

If Marty hasn't signed a contract could he enroll in a grad program and still use that last year of eligibility?

I agree 100% with what you said. Right up until "I'm confident that Coach K will find a way to make this team competitive". I think he'll TRY to find a way to make the team competitive. On most nights against good teams, I think we're going to realistically struggle.

[ArnieMc]

I feel like I'm watching an episode of "Perils of Pauline" and wondering how Our Hero (Coach K) is going to jump in and "save the day just in the nick of time."

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

I agree 100% with what you said. Right up until "I'm confident that Coach K will find a way to make this team competitive". I think he'll TRY to find a way to make the team competitive. On most nights against good teams, I think we're going to realistically struggle.

Cosign (and don't forget we're still waiting to see if K will be giving his full attention to the team at all).

We have two proven players (Kyle, Jon), one guy who has shown some flashes (Nolan), and a lot of question marks. We have no real shooters to stretch the D, no proven post players, and no one to run the team. I can't remember a time in K's tenure when we've had so little in terms of known ability.

Where do you start building this team? Forge a defensive identity (with ball pressure from a gassed Nolan and Z patrolling the middle?) Go big and hope the frosh can dominate out of the gate? These aren't rhetorical questions, I'm really unsure about the identity of this team and curious if more knowledgeable folks can see a way out of this mess.

[NYDukie]

The moral of the story is that next year will be a very interesting year. Is there talent? Yes, but the distribution of talent is very unbalanced. The prospect of having only 2 "true" guards is perplexing but Singler does provide ability to help out there. I can see him swinging between the 2 and 3 spots much of the year now. Kelly is the unknown. What can he bring to the table to offer some relief at the swing positions? It will be a very unorthodox year for the team and the fan base. I think we will all have to be patient and understand this is an unusual situation for a team to be in. We can all debate the reasons as to why the team is in the position, be it from either the glass is either half EMPTY or FULL approach. I am of the half full crowd but I am realistic too. My personal feeling is that this will be a 20-24 win team now, with a estimated 4-6 seed come tourney time.

I know this is for another thread, but does the EMail transfer lead to a mother load recruiting haul for 2010 class?

[rotogod00]

The moral of the story is that next year will be a very interesting year. Is there talent? Yes, but the distribution of talent is very unbalanced. The prospect of having only 2 "true" guards is perplexing but Singler does provide ability to help out there. I can see him swinging between the 2 and 3 spots much of the year now. Kelly is the unknown. What can he bring to the table to offer some relief at the swing positions? It will be a very unorthodox year for the team and the fan base. I think we will all have to be patient and understand this is an unusual situation for a team to be in. We can all debate the reasons as to why the team is in the position, be it from either the glass is either half EMPTY or FULL approach. I am of the half full crowd but I am realistic too. My personal feeling is that this will be a 20-24 win team now, with a estimated 4-6 seed come tourney time.

I know this is for another thread, but does the EMail transfer lead to a mother load recruiting haul for 2010 class?

looks like we're going to have a 6-man class. and K is going after the cream-of-the-crop. hopefully he'll be able to close the deal on some of them this time-around.

[gumbomoop]

Hard to still be optimistic, but I am, mostly. We still have lots of talent, definitely some depth up front if MP2 is as good as I think, and if MP1 and Z are solidly improved. [I know, lots of ifs, but as I've noted on 09-10 MBB thread, all teams have big ?-marks. Ours just got substantially bigger, to be sure.]

As many others have said, wing-defense is problematic. It seems sensible to me, however, not to distinguish too awfully precisely between the 2-wing and the 3-wing. Many, many teams play PG, 2 wings, 2 inside players. So, obvious question is, can KS, LT, and RK guard guys out on floor? JS can, and will for 30+ mpg, so the real issue is with bigger inside-out guys, KS, LT, and totally untested RK. Wing-defense, probably along with NS as PG, now keys to season. Zone defense may be necessary at times; seems logical, near-inevitable in some situations.

Injury to anyone now a killer, esp so to NS, JS, KS.

Barring injury scenario, here's a revised scenario for minutes [in all but easiest early-season games]:

PG - NS, 35 mpg; JS, 5 mpg
Wings - JS, 30: KS 35; RK, 10; LT, 5
Inside-out (old 4-spot) - LT, 20; MP2, 20
Post - Z, 20; MP1, 20

Wild cards -Czyz & Davidson - maybe 5-10 mpg between them, possibly relieving overworked NS, JS, and/or KS, reducing their mpg to 33-34 each. Czyz will surely get his chance for some minutes.

And to revisit a now-esp-relevant issue: when KS and LT are in game at same time, which is likely to be a lot, LT may well play Dave McClure-like role as perimeter defender, allowing KS to defend the opposing 4. KS real good rebounder, far superior to LT.

You know, thinking optimistically-realistically, there may be a small silver-lining: do we not have a consensus that LT has not been the rebounder we'd [and he'd, not to mention K] hoped? OK, but do we not also think LT may be an intriguing perimeter defender? And maybe LT will retrieve more, not fewer, rebounds crashing from the perimeter than from inside, where he's not been a strong blocker-outer, either.

[CDu]

Well, things just got a lot more difficult/interesting for the Devils next year. We're now down to literally two ACC-caliber guards (maybe only two on the roster depending upon Davidson's situation).

So Singler is going to be playing exclusively on the wing, as a 3 primarily and as a 2 when Scheyer or Smith are resting. Thomas is going to get some substantial minutes at the 3. There will be plenty of minutes at the 4 and 5 for Kelly, the Plumlees, and Zoubek. Czyz will probably have to play regularly as well.

I was concerned about our wing depth to begin with defensively. I was more than confident in Scheyer, Smith, and Williams at the 1 and 2 spots defensively, and was willing to tolerate Singler and Thomas at the 3. But with Singler getting time at the 2 and only one guy who has proven he can guard quicker PG, I'm very skeptical.

I can only hope that either Coach K can find a guard to fill the void off the bench or that he can figure out a way to minimize the glaring deficiencies that this team seems to have. But with only two real guards on the roster (and only three guys who are really wing-oriented players at all), the expectations should be lowered.

[_Gary]

I can only hope that either Coach K can find a guard to fill the void off the bench or that he can figure out a way to minimize the glaring deficiencies that this team seems to have. But with only two real guards on the roster (and only three guys who are really wing-oriented players at all), the expectations should be lowered.

Significantly lowered, IMHO. While I don't think this team will be anything like the '95 team in the win/loss column, I do believe this will be K's most difficult season, coaching-wise, since he first arrived. And any semi-significant injury to Nolan or Jon might very well transport us back to '95. :eek:

[InSpades]

The moral of the story is that next year will be a very interesting year. Is there talent? Yes, but the distribution of talent is very unbalanced.

The biggest problem I see is that the distribution of talent is still skewed towards the perimeter. Our most proven players are on the perimeter (Singler and Scheyer) and our next most talented player is Smith. Our next most experienced player is Thomas who will be forced to play on the perimeter atleast defensively. Honestly the biggest problem is not guard depth, it's ACC-ready player depth.

If things stay the way they are now... I can definitely see K holding tryouts for walk-ons early next year. I'm pretty sure he has done this in the past as well. Hopefully there's a few hidden gems among the student body. Luckily it's a lot easier to find a walk-on to play guard than forward/center.

On the upside Jon and Nolan are both going to be given every opportunity to step-it-up offensively and I'd enjoy nothing more than watching them do just that. Nolan is going to have to learn how to defend without fouls though, cause we're gonna need him on the court (a lot!). Hopefully these guys are getting in the best shape of their lives cause I sense a *ton* of playing time for Jon, Nolan and Kyle.

[rotogod00]

Significantly lowered, IMHO. While I don't think this team will be anything like the '95 team in the win/loss column, I do believe this will be K's most difficult season, coaching-wise, since he first arrived. And any semi-significant injury to Nolan or Jon might very well transport us back to '95. :eek:


agree. should be happy with something like a 20-12/9-7 season

[CDu]

Significantly lowered, IMHO. While I don't think this team will be anything like the '95 team in the win/loss column, I do believe this will be K's most difficult season, coaching-wise, since he first arrived. And any semi-significant injury to Nolan or Jon might very well transport us back to '95. :eek:

I agree. It's one thing to remain competitive without big men. It's a lot more difficult to win without guards. To be elite, you tend to need both. But if you're going to have one or the other, you're better off with plenty of guards.

Hopefully Coach K can figure it out.

[ncexnyc]

Lance Stephenson where are you?

[geraldsneighbor]

Lance Stephenson where are you?

Woah woah woah. I think the recruiting needs to be directed in the ways of Lamont "mo-mo" Jones.

[Devil07]

For those who follow the football team closely, were any of the current players or incoming recruits considered basketball prospects at one time? The odds of getting a guard from the football team are pretty slim of course, but maybe there's a WR who used to be a wing.

Also, I was serious before, if Marty hasn't signed a professional contract, could he enroll in grad classes and use his last year of eligibility? And does anyone know the situation with Davidson?

[CDu]

For those who follow the football team closely, were any of the current players or incoming recruits considered basketball prospects at one time? The odds of getting a guard from the football team are pretty slim of course, but maybe there's a WR who used to be a wing.

Also, I was serious before, if Marty hasn't signed a professional contract, could he enroll in grad classes and use his last year of eligibility? And does anyone know the situation with Davidson?

Pocius COULD return for grad school if he wanted to do so, but I was under the impression that he moved on of his own accord. I mean, we were going to have depth issues at guard BEFORE Pocius decided to move on, so one would think that the decision wouldn't be influenced by Williams's transfer.

It will be very interesting to see how Coach K goes about addressing the depth problem at guard. I feel like he's going to have to bring someone, whether it be a walk-on or a really late recruit.

[dukelifer]

Pocius COULD return for grad school if he wanted to do so, but I was under the impression that he moved on of his own accord. I mean, we were going to have depth issues at guard BEFORE Pocius decided to move on, so one would think that the decision wouldn't be influenced by Williams's transfer.

It will be very interesting to see how Coach K goes about addressing the depth problem at guard. I feel like he's going to have to bring someone, whether it be a walk-on or a really late recruit.

Have all the incoming players that are eligible to transfer because of a coaching change found a home?

[CMARTZ]

A friend of mine got recruited to play as a guard Yale but turned them down to go to Duke. I wonder if he feels like stepping up...

[miramar]

Woah woah woah. I think the recruiting needs to be directed in the ways of Lamont "mo-mo" Jones.

If even Maryland and FIU are no longer interested in Stephenson, then I can't believe that Duke would be.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/Lance-Stephenson-is-still-without-a-school-and-;_ylt=AszSiEFrs1Hc1y1hOCeYnz7evbYF?urn=ncaab,17217 2

It seems that Arizona and Florida are in the lead for Jones, but I wonder if this will change things.

[miramar]

A friend of mine got recruited to play as a guard Yale but turned them down to go to Duke. I wonder if he feels like stepping up...

I think you should make that suggestion on his Facebook page.

[RockyMtDevil]

at these conversations. Football players, walk-ons, intramural champs, theology professors...This is what we've sunk to in our recruitment. Does Hauerwas have any eligibility, he's under 6'8 isn't he.

[SupaDave]

at these conversations. Football players, walk-ons, intramural champs, theology professors...This is what we've sunk to in our recruitment. Does Hauerwas have any eligibility, he's under 6'8 isn't he.

You're joking right? B/c they have players doesn't mean they are not having similar convos - they have a lot of questions at guard themselves (two freshmen, a sophmore, and a senior who can't shoot)...

[COYS]

at these conversations. Football players, walk-ons, intramural champs, theology professors...This is what we've sunk to in our recruitment. Does Hauerwas have any eligibility, he's under 6'8 isn't he.

Ok, I get it. Kelly and Mason won't be any good. All the recruits we have already signed for 2010 will decide to rescind their commitment. And Harrison Barnes will decide to play for UNC in two days holding a press conference and saying "I can't imagine why any recruit would ever choose Duke . . . ever." This of course is followed by K signing a $50 million dollar/ 6 year contract with the Lakers and then Duke deciding that basketball should no longer compete at the division I level.

Look, I'm fully aware that this puts Duke in a seriously tough situation for next year. But as far as recruiting goes, the only thing you can say is that the staff should possibly have cast a wider net the past few seasons so that the decisions of Patterson, Monroe, and Boynton wouldn't hurt so much. Guess what? The staff is recruiting Knight, McCallum, Irving, Barnes, Smith, Furgueson, and many others for 2010. It doesn't make sense to be completely fed up with Duke's recruiting when we're still netting a good percentage of the prospects we go after, even if we're not getting them all like it seemed like we were for a while there in the late nineties and the earliest part of this decade. Now, if any or all of the above doomsday scenarios happen, I'll gladly listen to endless refrains of "I told you so."

As for next year, I think this definitely means that Kelly will see the floor a lot, if only because of his shooting ability. I wonder about his ability to play defense, but I feel that if his offensive output is strong enough, we won't be able to leave him on the bench.

[ncexnyc]

You're joking right? B/c they have players doesn't mean they are not having similar convos - they have a lot of questions at guard themselves (two freshmen, a sophmore, and a senior who can't shoot)...

But at least they have guards.:D

[DUKIE V(A)]

Starting Line-up

Nolan
Scheyer
Singler
MP2
Zoubs

I see LT as being valuable to have coming off the bench as a guy to guard some of the 2 guards we will face (Singler I am sure will also do his fair share of this). We will definitely miss E-mail (especially on the defensive end), but it will be interesting to see what Coach K will do to create some mismatches when we have a larger line-up on the floor.

[ncexnyc]

Ok, I get it. Kelly and Mason won't be any good. All the recruits we have already signed for 2010 will decide to rescind their commitment. And Harrison Barnes will decide to play for UNC in two days holding a press conference and saying "I can't imagine why any recruit would ever choose Duke . . . ever." This of course is followed by K signing a $50 million dollar/ 6 year contract with the Lakers and then Duke deciding that basketball should no longer compete at the division I level.

Look, I'm fully aware that this puts Duke in a seriously tough situation for next year. But as far as recruiting goes, the only thing you can say is that the staff should possibly have cast a wider net the past few seasons so that the decisions of Patterson, Monroe, and Boynton wouldn't hurt so much. Guess what? The staff is recruiting Knight, McCallum, Irving, Barnes, Smith, Furgueson, and many others for 2010. It doesn't make sense to be completely fed up with Duke's recruiting when we're still netting a good percentage of the prospects we go after, even if we're not getting them all like it seemed like we were for a while there in the late nineties and the earliest part of this decade. Now, if any or all of the above doomsday scenarios happen, I'll gladly listen to endless refrains of "I told you so."

As for next year, I think this definitely means that Kelly will see the floor a lot, if only because of his shooting ability. I wonder about his ability to play defense, but I feel that if his offensive output is strong enough, we won't be able to leave him on the bench.

You make some valid points, however we shouldn't be so quick to dismiss some of the comments that have been made not only on this thread, but on others about the disturbing trends being shown by this program.

We've all read the various excuses and while it's nice to point to last season's 30 wins and ACC Tourney Championship, like my co-worker who's a hole fan loves to remind me, "They don't make an SI special edition for that, do they."

While today's news is disappointing, I'm not ready to write off our kids for next season. Things will be interesting to say the least.

I believe the true indicator of where Duke sits as a major player in hoops will be determined by the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Until then I'll pass on heading to the lifeboats.

[Hancock 4 Duke]

Come on harrison barnes! Duke blue or kansas blue? Go with the one that has the most recent conference championship!

[ncexnyc]

Starting Line-up

Nolan
Scheyer
Singler
MP2
Zoubs

I see LT as being valuable to have coming off the bench as a guy to guard some of the 2 guards we will face (Singler I am sure will also do his fair share of this). We will definitely miss E-mail (especially on the defensive end), but it will be interesting to see what Coach K will do to create some mismatches when we have a larger line-up on the floor.

Always easier said than done. If the game was played on paper, then yes, we could say that our flood of bigs would create mismatches for the opposition, however in the real world our players have to be capable of executing. Which of our current bigs has shown they could get the job done in the past? Are you counting on Ryan and Mason?

For a team that already had several question marks, the loss of Ewill only compounds the problem.

[rotogod00]

Always easier said than done. If the game was played on paper, then yes, we could say that our flood of bigs would create mismatches for the opposition, however in the real world our players have to be capable of executing. Which of our current bigs has shown they could get the job done in the past? Are you counting on Ryan and Mason?

For a team that already had several question marks, the loss of Ewill only compounds the problem.

You can't realistically count on major production from either of the freshman. If they contribute, great, but to assume that they'll be able to just step in and play 20-25 minutes at a high level, is naive imho.

[NSDukeFan]

Starting Line-up

Nolan
Scheyer
Singler
MP2
Zoubs

I see LT as being valuable to have coming off the bench as a guy to guard some of the 2 guards we will face (Singler I am sure will also do his fair share of this). We will definitely miss E-mail (especially on the defensive end), but it will be interesting to see what Coach K will do to create some mismatches when we have a larger line-up on the floor.

I agree with your post, though I wonder if Lance may start at the 3/4 instead of MP2 due to his perimeter D. I think there are going to be a lot of wings having a tough time with Kyle next year.

[CDu]

I agree with your post, though I wonder if Lance may start at the 3/4 instead of MP2 due to his perimeter D. I think there are going to be a lot of wings having a tough time with Kyle next year.

Well, we know who's starting at the 1-3 spots (Scheyer, Smith, Singler). After that, it's hard to say. As for the 4 spot, I think it really depends upon who starts at the 5. If Zoubek starts, Coach K may decide to go with Thomas for mobility and defense, or he may decide to go with Kelly to spread the floor as a shooter. If one of the Plumlees gets the start, it may be different story. Those guys are more mobile and would allow more flexibility at other positions.

[miramar]

Football players, walk-ons, intramural champs, theology professors...

Thank you for the suggestion, my son. The presence of theology professors will provide no small comfort in our time of tribulation in hac lachrymarum valle.

[DUKIE V(A)]

Count me as one who is drinking the MP2 Kool-aid. I think he is going to be a bigtime player at Duke and contribute right away. I realize there will be some growing pains as a freshman, but he looks athletic and versatile on both ends of the floor.

[CDu]

Count me as one who is drinking the MP2 Kool-aid. I think he is going to be a bigtime player at Duke and contribute right away. I realize there will be some growing pains as a freshman, but he looks athletic and versatile on both ends of the floor.

I certainly hope so. But I'm always hesitant with freshman big men. They're extremely hit or miss.

We're going to need at least one (if not two) of the four big guys to really step up this year though. So hopefully Plumlee does so.

[geraldsneighbor]

Count me as one who is drinking the MP2 Kool-aid. I think he is going to be a bigtime player at Duke and contribute right away. I realize there will be some growing pains as a freshman, but he looks athletic and versatile on both ends of the floor.

Hell, if MP2 can come in and give us 10 and 8 were in great shape.

[CDu]

Hell, if MP2 can come in and give us 10 and 8 were in great shape.

I'm not so sure. I think people are really discounting the importance of having guard depth (especially those who can create easy shots for themselves and others). I think it's much more important to have good guard/wing play than good big men.

I think you can be competitive without great big man play, but it's hard to be elite without great big man play. I think teams that have issues in the backcourt have trouble being competitive.

I hope I'm wrong, but I really think this year will be difficult without another guard on the roster. I mean, now we literally cannot have a 5-on-5 practice with two ACC-caliber guards on each side. I think that's a bigger deal than people are willing to admit.

[Kedsy]

You can't realistically count on major production from either of the freshman. If they contribute, great, but to assume that they'll be able to just step in and play 20-25 minutes at a high level, is naive imho.

If you don't count freshmen our guards (Scheyer/Smith) are significantly better than UNC's guards (Drew/Ginyard). Our forwards (Singler/Zoubek/Thomas/MP1) may not be quite as good as theirs (Davis/Thompson/Zeller), but overall I like our upperclass lineup better. In fact, going around the league off the top of my head, even without EWill I like our upperclassmen better than any upperclass lineup in the ACC.

The reason people think UNC is going to be good is their highly regarded freshman class, but ours is pretty well regarded, too, and IMO shouldn't necessarily be dismissed so quickly.

[chrisheery]

For all of us who always want to see freshman (and sophomores) play earlier and more often: now we will get that this year. MP1, MP2, Kelly will all get a lot of time this year, and hopefully with an excellent class in 2010, we could be right back in position for a run at a national championship with the combination of athleticism, experience and freshly infused stud guards/wings.

I hate being hopeful for something that is extremely uncertain and more than a year away.

[Greg_Newton]

Well, my expectations have officially been tempered from a potentially "exciting" year to a potentially "interesting" year. This new development raises some new "interesting" questions about several players:

-Kyle Singler: Will he develop into a point forward? I had speculated about this earlier, but now I don't know that he has a choice. Hopefully that tennis ball he's dribbling around all summer will pay off...

-Lance Thomas: This is the real X-factor to me. Can he rediscover the wing skills and jumper everyone thought he had coming out of high school? He's been confined to a hustle-and-screen big man his whole career, you never know what could happen after a summer of guard workouts if K turns him loose... a little newfound confidence can go a long way.

Ryan Kelly: From what I saw of him in high school, he had quite good handles and guard skills when he was comfortable with the flow of the game. Granted, this did not show in the All-American games, but it will be interesting to see how he progresses on the wing.

Olek Czyz: He came to Duke so K could teach him how to be a wing player. Granted, I don't think anyone was expecting the teaching process to be complete by next season, but he may end up seeing some minutes now out of necessity. I would be a little more optimistic about his summer development if he hadn't just had surgery on his foot though...

And lastly, the big question: Defense. It seems K will have to go zone. If he does, does he put LT on top of the zone? Mason Plumlee, with his length?

We were all so excited to see Elliot emerge next season and beyond... it's very heartbreaking to see him go.

[The1Bluedevil]

I can already in vision this team playing similar to some Big 11 teams. Bigger, less athletic and will have to grind out nearly every possession to win games. I don’t see this year’s team struggling to score quite like 2006-2007 but I certainly won’t be surprised to see Duke have numerous games in the low 60’s

[arnie]

I can already in vision this team playing similar to some Big 11 teams. Bigger, less athletic and will have to grind out nearly every possession to win games. I don’t see this year’s team struggling to score quite like 2006-2007 but I certainly won’t be surprised to see Duke have numerous games in the low 60’s

But now that we have Casey Peters playing at least 20 minutes at guard, don't you think we'll run, run, run.

[buckshot]

Well, my expectations have officially been tempered from a potentially "exciting" year to a potentially "interesting" year. This new development raises some new "interesting" questions about several players:

-Kyle Singler: Will he develop into a point forward? I had speculated about this earlier, but now I don't know that he has a choice. Hopefully that tennis ball he's dribbling around all summer will pay off...

-Lance Thomas: This is the real X-factor to me. Can he rediscover the wing skills and jumper everyone thought he had coming out of high school? He's been confined to a hustle-and-screen big man his whole career, you never know what could happen after a summer of guard workouts if K turns him loose... a little newfound confidence can go a long way.

Ryan Kelly: From what I saw of him in high school, he had quite good handles and guard skills when he was comfortable with the flow of the game. Granted, this did not show in the All-American games, but it will be interesting to see how he progresses on the wing.

Olek Czyz: He came to Duke so K could teach him how to be a wing player. Granted, I don't think anyone was expecting the teaching process to be complete by next season, but he may end up seeing some minutes now out of necessity. I would be a little more optimistic about his summer development if he hadn't just had surgery on his foot though...

And lastly, the big question: Defense. It seems K will have to go zone. If he does, does he put LT on top of the zone? Mason Plumlee, with his length?

We were all so excited to see Elliot emerge next season and beyond... it's very heartbreaking to see him go.





You forgot Casey Peters: Uber athelete and quiet X-factor..Will he show off all of his talent at once or will he slowly ooze greatness over the season..lets hope he doesn't skip out to the NBA after this season

[rsvman]

Williams's departure makes the Wall miss even more epic.


Maybe that thread wasn't as out of control as we thought it was.;)

[Oriole Way]

Thinking about all of the turnovers this team will make, and its inability to run, makes me cringe.

[pfrduke]

Thinking about all of the turnovers this team will make...

Yeah, it seems to me this team is extremely vulnerable to the press. Who helps out against a 1-2-1-1 or 2-2-1 when Scheyer or Smith are not in the game?? Heck, who helps out when both are? Thomas, Zoubek, Czyz, and MP1 are not ball-handling forwards, and from what little I know, MP2 isn't either.

[Oriole Way]

Yeah, it seems to me this team is extremely vulnerable to the press. Who helps out against a 1-2-1-1 or 2-2-1 when Scheyer or Smith are not in the game?? Heck, who helps out when both are? Thomas, Zoubek, Czyz, and MP1 are not ball-handling forwards, and from what little I know, MP2 isn't either.

Unfortunately, Singler's most likely going to be bringing the ball up the floor for a few possessions every game. He's the best ball-handler of all our non-guards, or forwards and big men, or guys not named Scheyer, Smith, or Davidson, or whatever.

I say unfortunately, because it's just going to tire him out more, and obviously still lead to turnovers. But, I guess it will be good for Kyle to showcase and work on his ball-handling, since it will make him more attractive to NBA scouts.

I just wish we hadn't put all of our eggs in the Kenny Boynton basket. Even if Elliot hadn't transferred, Duke would still have been an injury away going from thin at guard to dangerously thin at guard. I don't understand why K didn't recruit some guard depth for this season.

[miramar]

Giglio has the following:

Starters
G Smith
G Scheyer
G/F Singler
F Thomas
F Zoubek

Bench
G/F Kelly
F Miles Plumlee
F Mason Plumlee

I’m not sure why Zoubs is listed as a forward, and we have to see what Olek can do next year. Davidson and Peters will also have to fill in at the guards, even if “Jon Scheyer's going to shatter the ACC record for minutes-played this coming season.”

http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/bad-break-for-duke

No matter what, the March 26 game against Villanova began a disastrous two months for MBB. We know what the starting five can do, but that bench will be a huge factor in Duke's success.

[CDu]

Giglio has the following:

Starters
G Smith
G Scheyer
G/F Singler
F Thomas
F Zoubek

Bench
G/F Kelly
F Miles Plumlee
F Mason Plumlee

I’m not sure why Zoubs is listed as a forward, and we have to see what Olek can do next year. Davidson and Peters will also have to fill in at the guards, even if “Jon Scheyer's going to shatter the ACC record for minutes-played this coming season.”

http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/bad-break-for-duke

No matter what, the March 26 game against Villanova began a disastrous two months for MBB. We know what the starting five can do, but that bench will be a huge factor in Duke's success.

There is virtually no margin for error. Smith, and at least three of the Plumlee/Plumlee/Kelly/Zoubek/Thomas group will need to become consistent contributors. And Singler and Thomas are going to have to show a vastly improved ability to defend wing players.

I've literally never seen a team with so few guards. It's amazing. I think this is going to need to be one of Coach K's best coaching jobs.

[ACCBBallFan]

Starting Line-up

Nolan
Scheyer
Singler
MP2
Zoubs

I see LT as being valuable to have coming off the bench as a guy to guard some of the 2 guards we will face (Singler I am sure will also do his fair share of this). We will definitely miss E-mail (especially on the defensive end), but it will be interesting to see what Coach K will do to create some mismatches when we have a larger line-up on the floor.

I pretty much agree with this as I posted on another thread, or a variation with Lance starting and Nolan subbing. I too see it as either/or rather than both:

Scheyer 6’5”

Singler 6’ 9” whether as SG or SF

Smith 6’2” /Thomas 6’8” depending on foe's size vs. ball handling

Mason 6’11”/Kelly 6’ 10” with only one major role to learn, and fill in at center, not SF

Zoubek 7’1” /Miles 6’10”

[CDu]

I pretty much agree with this as I posted on another thread, or a variation with Lance starting and Nolan subbing. I too see it as either/or rather than both:

Scheyer 6’5”

Singler 6’ 9” whether as SG or SF

Smith 6’2” /Thomas 6’8” depending on foe's size vs. ball handling

Mason 6’11”/Kelly 6’ 10” with only one major role to learn, and fill in at center, not SF

Zoubek 7’1” /Miles 6’10”

Assuming no moves are made to add backcourt players, I think that we'll see Scheyer, Smith and Singler handling the guard duties, Singler and Thomas (and maybe Czyz if needed) handling the third wing duties, and Zoubek, the Plumlees, and Kelly handling the post duties.

We're going to have two post players on the floor at all times, and we'll frequently have a third post guy (Thomas, Czyz, Kelly) being forced to play on the perimeter when Singler has to move to the guard spot to fill in for Scheyer or Smith (or when Singler is on the bench.

If we just had one more guard to fill in for 15 minutes or so, Singler could play the third wing position more or less exclusively and we'd have only a few minutes per game with a post guy playing out of position on the perimeter. Maybe Coach K will find someone capable of doing that.

Perhaps Thomas or Czyz will really advance their perimeter games and make themselves useful as the bigger wing player backing up Singler. That would be really helpful, as it would minimize the amount of time that we have guys playing way out of position.

[BlueintheFace]

Poster Idea for Next Year: "Amongst The Trees"

Zoubek, Plumlee, Plumlee, Singler, Thomas, and Kelly are all standing in front with their arms crossed looking huge, while Jon, Nolan, Casey, Jordan, and Olek are peeking out from behind them (at waist level) with basketballs.

NOTE: This is actually a terrible idea for a poster, but it still makes me laugh.

[NSDukeFan]

Yeah, it seems to me this team is extremely vulnerable to the press. Who helps out against a 1-2-1-1 or 2-2-1 when Scheyer or Smith are not in the game?? Heck, who helps out when both are? Thomas, Zoubek, Czyz, and MP1 are not ball-handling forwards, and from what little I know, MP2 isn't either.

I wonder about Kelly and MP2 helping out against a press, not as primarily ball handlers, but I picture them in the middle of the floor as the outlet there. They both present big targets and I believe both handle the ball reasonably well. I am also looking forward to Kyle showing all his perimeter talents next year.

[CDu]

I wonder about Kelly and MP2 helping out against a press, not as primarily ball handlers, but I picture them in the middle of the floor as the outlet there. They both present big targets and I believe both handle the ball reasonably well. I am also looking forward to Kyle showing all his perimeter talents next year.

We're going to have to pass over the top of presses this year, given our size and lack of ballhandlers. We're not going to be able to dribble our way out of many presses, because the players we have at that position aren't that strong. Only Scheyer has really shown the propensity to avoid turnovers, but he hasn't yet been asked to withstand heavy full court pressure yet.

One of the first things coaches generally teach you about presses is to pass out of a press rather than dribbling into trouble. The key is making the appropriate pass and not wildly passing out of pressure. Only truly elite ballhandlers should be expected to consistently break presses off the dribble. Otherwise, the key is identifying the open space in a press (and there's always an opening somewhere) and completing passes accurately.

That's the way I see this team having to handle the press. We have the size that we shouldn't get swallowed up in a press. The key will be making good decisions with the passes. And guys like Kelly and Mason Plumlee will almost certainly be involved with their size and (hopefully) their ability to pass.

[m g]

i saw this on mason plumlee on his draftexpress profile, and i've read this about him elsewhere too:

"He is so skilled that his AAU team even runs him at the point guard position, which is not something that is really conducive to winning games at a higher level of competition, but tells you a little bit about how versatile he is."

[SupaDave]

Yeah, it seems to me this team is extremely vulnerable to the press. Who helps out against a 1-2-1-1 or 2-2-1 when Scheyer or Smith are not in the game?? Heck, who helps out when both are? Thomas, Zoubek, Czyz, and MP1 are not ball-handling forwards, and from what little I know, MP2 isn't either.

We will have the advantage this year of a lot of bodies who can do something called 'throw a pick'...

[SupaDave]

I've literally never seen a team with so few guards. It's amazing. I think this is going to need to be one of Coach K's best coaching jobs.

NCSU's Fire and Ice comes to mind if you need something to jog your brain instead of letting it run wild with pessimism. They had just lost Vinny Del Negro and other stars on top of that. Looks like we'll have our own Fire and Ice this year and the role of Gugliotta will be played by Kyle Singler.

[Matches]

NCSU's Fire and Ice comes to mind if you need something to jog your brain instead of letting it run wild with pessimism. They had just lost Vinny Del Negro and other stars on top of that. Looks like we'll have our own Fire and Ice this year and the role of Gugliotta will be played by Kyle Singler.

Well - 1988 State had Del Negro, our amphibious friend Charles Shackleford, and Chucky Brown. This was Corch & Monroe's freshman year.

1989 State still had Brown (who had developed by then into a really good player), along with Gugliotta as a freshman. That team was a horrible call away from knocking off Georgetown in the Sweet 16.

1990-1991 was Corch/ Monroe/ Gugliotta - but State wasn't particularly *good* either of those years. (I think they made the NCAAs at least one of those seasons but did not get out of the first weekend.)

[CDu]

NCSU's Fire and Ice comes to mind if you need something to jog your brain instead of letting it run wild with pessimism. They had just lost Vinny Del Negro and other stars on top of that. Looks like we'll have our own Fire and Ice this year and the role of Gugliotta will be played by Kyle Singler.

That's not remotely a good example. Fire and Ice were two of the better guards in ACC history. Monroe was a 20 ppg scoring machine (for three years running) and Corchiani was one of the better pure PG to play college basketball (graduated as the all-time assist leader in college).

Those guys were better than the combination we have. That's not meant to disparage Scheyer and Smith. And more importantly, they weren't the ONLY guards on that team. Scheyer and Smith literally are.

I'm not being pessimistic. I literally cannot think of a successful team with only two guards on the roster. I'm not saying that the team can't possibly overcome that. I'm just saying it's incredibly optimistic to assume that the team will overcome that.

[CDu]

Well - 1988 State had Del Negro, our amphibious friend Charles Shackleford, and Chucky Brown. This was Corch & Monroe's freshman year.

1989 State still had Brown (who had developed by then into a really good player), along with Gugliotta as a freshman. That team was a horrible call away from knocking off Georgetown in the Sweet 16.

1990-1991 was Corch/ Monroe/ Gugliotta - but State wasn't particularly *good* either of those years. (I think they made the NCAAs at least one of those seasons but did not get out of the first weekend.)

Well said. And again, those teams had more than two guards to work with. And the two guards that were referenced were better than the two guards that we have.

[Matches]

Well said. And again, those teams had more than two guards to work with. And the two guards that were referenced were better than the two guards that we have.

I'm really not sure who State's other guards were in 1990-1991. That was when the Valvano fallout was in full swing so they may have had limited rosters in those years. The '88 team had Quentin Jackson in addition to Del Negro, and both the '88 and '89 teams had Kelsey Weems.

[CDu]

I'm really not sure who State's other guards were in 1990-1991. That was when the Valvano fallout was in full swing so they may have had limited rosters in those years. The '88 team had Quentin Jackson in addition to Del Negro, and both the '88 and '89 teams had Kelsey Weems.

I don't care if they had particularly good other guards. Just that they had other guards. Corchianni and Monroe played the vast majority of minutes on those 1990 and 1991 teams. But they didn't have to play the entire game. And they had a guard or two (at the minimum) backing them up.

[Matches]

Yeah, I agree. I've been trying to think of an example of a team that just didn't have *anyone*. Wasn't there a year right around the time Pete Gillen took over where UVa only had something like 5-6 players total? I think I remember them having open tryouts at one point.

Not that I think that's something for Duke to emulate, mind you - just looking for a comparable situation.

[Greg_Newton]

i saw this on mason plumlee on his draftexpress profile, and i've read this about him elsewhere too:

"He is so skilled that his AAU team even runs him at the point guard position, which is not something that is really conducive to winning games at a higher level of competition, but tells you a little bit about how versatile he is."

Another thing that should be nice about Mason in a press-break is how good of an open-court finisher he is... if he gets a head of steam and is allowed to take off anywhere inside the free throw line he's going to be hard to stop. His gazelle-like end-to-end speed should also be an asset... I present play 2 in this video as Exhibit A: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0B5uqqh1vM

I think we'll have enough ballhandlers to avoid too many turnovers from a press when we have Nolan, Jon, Kyle and Mason/Lance in... what worries me more is not that teams will hit us with an aggressive, organized press, it's that every team will be consistently harrassing our ballhandlers for 94 feet, which will force our 2 guards to expend even more energy.

[Duke of Nashville]

Just off of assumption and of what I would do initially.

Starting First Game:
Nolan-1
Jon-2
Kyle-3
MP1-4
Z-5

First Subs: Dependent on Early Foul Trouble/Flow of game
Lance-3/4
MP2-4/5
Kelly-3/4
Olek-3

I only picked MP1 to start because he is the only player that showed flashes that he can compete at the ACC/NCAA level. We will see about Kelly or MP2 both of whom I can eventually developing into starters. Whenever Jon or Nolan needs a breather Kyle is going to have to the play the 2 which moves Lance coming in to guard the 3 position. With the other 2 big subs that leaves on the floor:

Jon-1
Kyle-2
Lance-3
Kelly-4
MP-2

The next waves of subs is what I would guess as how the other team is adapting with the match ups and how or less experienced players are doing at playing defense.

Nolan-1
Jon-2
Kyle-3
Lance-4
Z-5

That is just my initial thoughts. Z is going to have to play huge for us and be extremely mobile. From the summer pics and workouts with Mr. Duke himself he looks like the best shape since I have seen him come to Duke and I have all the faith in the world in his abilities to step up to the next level. Jon was already playing like 32-34 minutes a game last year wasn't he? He should be able to handle the load and pressure.

Next year is going to be a great year for Duke Basketball and I can not wait to see the outcome and the development of all of our players. As a senior this coming year it’s going to be fun to see how Jon steps up his leadership.

Go To Hell Carolina Go To Hell!

Go Duke!

[OldSchool]

Starting line-up when we hit conference play:

C: Zoubek
PF: Mason
SF: Kyle
G: Jon
G: Nolan

First off bench:

Lance & Miles come in for Mason & Z.

Someone will come in to spell the G position – either Jordan or, if he can prove quick enough, Ryan. Defending the 2 position when we are resting one of our guard starters will be the challenge - may have to resort to Kyle or Lance at times.

Prediction: Mason will be a special player, and that will become apparent by mid-season.

Weakness: Stopping players like Toney Douglas, Tyrese Rice, Jack McClinton, Ty Lawson, but at least there will be fewer of them in the league next year. A team like Villanova will continue to be our matchup nightmare.

[SupaDave]

Well said. And again, those teams had more than two guards to work with. And the two guards that were referenced were better than the two guards that we have.

You weren't talking level of player - you were talking # of players. Besides, by today's standards I could easily see you disparaging Corch and Rodney as well based on your comments. Those guys played FULL games. After Del Negro left it was all about them and then they played hamstrung without Valvano. To top it all off - they had to wear unitards their last year! Call it what you want but we are not going through anything like that.

[CDu]

You weren't talking level of player - you were talking # of players. Besides, by today's standards I could easily see you disparaging Corch and Rodney as well based on your comments. Those guys played FULL games. After Del Negro left it was all about them and then they played hamstrung without Valvano. To top it all off - they had to wear unitards their last year! Call it what you want but we are not going through anything like that.

I was talking both level of player AND number of players. Corchianni and Monroe did not play 40 minutes every game. They had backups, even if it was for only 8-10 total minutes per game. They weren't playing college forwards at guard. My point was that I cannot think of a single successful team that had literally only two guards in their rotation - let alone no true PG and only one proven consistent guard.

Aside from the unitard thing, we may very well be going through a relatively tough year this year. That's kind of my point. I definitely don't see this as a 25-30 win team. I think we should be very happy with a 20-win season this year.

I'm not saying this is going to be some terrible team. But people who are expecting a top 10 or top 15 team are likely to wind up disappointed. I don't think people are grasping how big a challenge this team is facing.

[DukieBoy]

Think about this as well. Sure this year is going to be tough, and it has been well documented that the 2010 class (including Curry) will be special. But consider who will be returning that year too. If Kyle and Nolan stay stays, it will be Kyle, Nolan, MP1 & 2, Kelly, and Czyz. All these guys will have very, very valuable experience, even the freshman. THat means in 2010, we have a senior Kyle and Nolan, junior MP1 and Olek, experienced sophomores Kelly and MP2, and then the great incoming class.

While this year is going to be hard, tough it out. It will get better. But for now, I'm really anxious to see how everyone improves this year and who steps up.

[CDu]

Think about this as well. Sure this year is going to be tough, and it has been well documented that the 2010 class (including Curry) will be special. But consider who will be returning that year too. If Kyle and Nolan stay stays, it will be Kyle, Nolan, MP1 & 2, Kelly, and Czyz. All these guys will have very, very valuable experience, even the freshman. THat means in 2010, we have a senior Kyle and Nolan, junior MP1 and Olek, experienced sophomores Kelly and MP2, and then the great incoming class.

While this year is going to be hard, tough it out. It will get better. But for now, I'm really anxious to see how everyone improves this year and who steps up.

Yes, 2010-11 could be a truly special team. It will be a REALLY amazing year if we land Barnes and Knight/Irving. We'd have three or four options at PG, three or four options at SG, a beast at SF, three talented big men with experience, and a freshman big man. And that doesn't even consider the possibility of Singler returning for his senior year (I won't speculate either way on that).

That team would be unbelievably deep at every spot on the floor, with hopefully top-tier talent everywhere too.

Even though this year may be tough, the long-term perspective still looks promising (and could look extremely promising if the right pieces fall into place).

[Azdukefan]

I remember when the rumors of Elliott hit the board a few weeks back. It was said then that there was no validity to the story. My take then was where there is smoke there is fire. I had heard that the only one keeping Elliott from leaving was G and when he bolted to the league, it was pretty obvious Elliott was going to look elsewhere (I know everyone is going to say it is about the health of a family member but I can guarantee the sick family member would want what is best for EWill and Memphis is not it).

With that off my mind and looking towards 2009-2010, I think that next year will be a breakout year for Nolan and John and Kyle will be well John and Kyle (studs!). That being said, I think who starts is not as important as finding opportunities within the game(s) to keep these three guys as fresh/healthy as possible.

This has been a tough offseason and can't wait for the guys who stuck around to get an opportunity to prove their mettle. I wasn't quite sure what thread this soap box rant fit under.

Let's go DUKE!!!!!

[pfrduke]

I remember when the rumors of Elliott hit the board a few weeks back. It was said then that there was no validity to the story. My take then was where there is smoke there is fire. I had heard that the only one keeping Elliott from leaving was G and when he bolted to the league, it was pretty obvious Elliott was going to look elsewhere (I know everyone is going to say it is about the health of a family member but I can guarantee the sick family member would want what is best for EWill and Memphis is not it).

Do you have any substance whatsoever to your theory that Elliott was transferring regardless of any family health issues? Or is this just complete uninformed speculation? (Somehow, I'm betting the latter)

[Azdukefan]

Your bet is correct. Nothing substantial, just rumor mill stuff. How about having Kentucky on the list of potential places to transfer to (close to 400 some odd miles away)? Does this not rub you the wrong way?

[speedevil2001]

while singler will be the MVP of the team.

i believe nolan smith will be the most important player for duke next season.

so i hope nolan has the legs to play 38 min per game. develops his game out of the world over the summer.

score 16 points a game, 6 assist per game. 3 rebounds per game, and stay out of foul trouble. stay healthy too.
time to get in shape.

[mgtr]

I think Smith will be critical, but Scheyer will be too. And we know he can go 40 minutes. Should be an interesting season.

[ACCBBallFan]

When you only have 9 scholarship players and Curry available to practice all 10 are important to play 5 vs. 5 and improve in game setting.

Thsi whole concept of most important, go to guy etc runs couner to concept of TEAM. You run your plays and go the the guy who is most open and trust the force Luke. McClure won a game for Duke on a nice pass and finish.

But yes, if you want to go to a most important concept it would be the three already mentioned and Lance since Duke only has four proven wing defenders and inavialability of one means other three have to all play 40 MPG or go to an even more unproven guy for stretches.

Elliott was very important, but when he becomes unavaiable due to family illness, you rally around who is left and deal with it by emphasizing remaining strengths and minimizing resulting weaknesses.

[Lightz]

I think Nolan and Kyle are the most important coming into the season as IMO they really have the ability to both lead the team and make strides in their own individual games.

[weezie]

Kyle, Kyle and Kyle.

He's in line to inherit the Battier mantle.

[speedevil2001]

Kyle, Kyle and Kyle.

He's in line to inherit the Battier mantle.

battier was a role player that became a leader and a star, also had jason williams.

kyle has all the skills battier has, but can nolan smith be the player jason williams was? hugh difference.

[speedevil2001]

while singler will be the MVP of the team.

i believe nolan smith will be the most important player for duke next season.

so i hope nolan has the legs to play 38 min per game. develops his game out of the world over the summer.

score 16 points a game, 6 assist per game. 3 rebounds per game, and stay out of foul trouble. stay healthy too.
time to get in shape.

this thread has nothing to do with the starting line up in 2009 - 2010.

just 1 individual player...nolan smith...he should get his own thread.

[Duke12]

Full court practice will also be interesting. The two people that will really need to get their legs under them are Coaches WoJo and Collins.

[mcdukie]

My question to the board is where does everyone think we will finish now that EWill is gone? I think we are still a tourney team and am eager to see how K will adjust. I know he doesn't like zone, but if there was ever a time to play it, now seems like it. If he went big, he could play some great zone, keep some guards out of foul trouble and save Singler from getting gased and in foul trouble. They say coaches talk, maybe K could get some pointers from Boheim on the 2-3. By the way, Boheim is in no way in K's league, but the guy has had success with the zone. Just thoughts.

[sagegrouse]

My question to the board is where does everyone think we will finish now that EWill is gone? I think we are still a tourney team and am eager to see how K will adjust. I know he doesn't like zone, but if there was ever a time to play it, now seems like it. If he went big, he could play some great zone, keep some guards out of foul trouble and save Singler from getting gased and in foul trouble. They say coaches talk, maybe K could get some pointers from Boheim on the 2-3. By the way, Boheim is in no way in K's league, but the guy has had success with the zone. Just thoughts.

Where are those posters who have railed for years at K's penchant for playing a guard-oriented team instead of putting size on the floor?

They were unusually silent last season when Duke was playing what Bob Knight dubbed the "All Forward Team" -- Scheyer, EWill, Singler, Gerald and either LT or Zoubs.

Now that the team has only two recruited guards -- one of whom is 6-5 -- the Duke team on the floor should be huge.

Speak up, guys!

sagegrouse
'Just remember 2000. After losing Elton, Avery, Maggette, Trajan, and Burgess, the inexperienced Devils went 15-1 in the ACC and were just a couple of plays away from going to the Final Four.'