burnspbesq
04-15-2007, 10:12 PM
Sounds completely ridiculous -- but it's not.
Duke is currently 23-15, 4-14 in the ACC.
They have 16 games left (17 if the rained out game against Davidson can be made up).
The remaining ACC series are all against teams that are below .500 in the conference: Maryland and Wake at home, VPI and Miami away. It is not the least bit unreasonable to hope for a split of those 12 games.
Any team that is 19-1 non-conference can reasonably expect to go 5-0 in its five remaining non-conference games.
If it plays out that way, the regular season record is 34-21, 10-20 in one of the three toughest conferences in America.
If 10-20 gets them into the ACC tournament, they will play a minimum of three games in Jacksonville. Let's be optimistic and say they go 1-2.
That's 35-23 when the selection committee starts to do its thing. Last year, five teams with 35 wins or less made the field as at-large selections: San Diego, Missouri, UCLA, Baylor, and Stanford. None of those conferences (Pac-10, Big 12, and WCC) is as tough as the ACC.
All sorts of things have to go right in order for this to happen -- in particular, Duke needs to see its Friday and Sunday starting pitchers really step up in the last four weekends of ACC play.
If that happens, this is not an implausible scenario.
Duke is currently 23-15, 4-14 in the ACC.
They have 16 games left (17 if the rained out game against Davidson can be made up).
The remaining ACC series are all against teams that are below .500 in the conference: Maryland and Wake at home, VPI and Miami away. It is not the least bit unreasonable to hope for a split of those 12 games.
Any team that is 19-1 non-conference can reasonably expect to go 5-0 in its five remaining non-conference games.
If it plays out that way, the regular season record is 34-21, 10-20 in one of the three toughest conferences in America.
If 10-20 gets them into the ACC tournament, they will play a minimum of three games in Jacksonville. Let's be optimistic and say they go 1-2.
That's 35-23 when the selection committee starts to do its thing. Last year, five teams with 35 wins or less made the field as at-large selections: San Diego, Missouri, UCLA, Baylor, and Stanford. None of those conferences (Pac-10, Big 12, and WCC) is as tough as the ACC.
All sorts of things have to go right in order for this to happen -- in particular, Duke needs to see its Friday and Sunday starting pitchers really step up in the last four weekends of ACC play.
If that happens, this is not an implausible scenario.