Survivor (4/12)--SPOILERS

[Blue Shark]

Nooooo! Michelle is gone! Not only was she one of my favorites (*very* easy on the eyes) & great in challenges, but her explusion seems to threaten my favorite alliance of Earl & Yauman.

Jason Evans, what'd you think?

Once the team lost the challenge, I knew Michelle was in trouble....

It does seem as if the 2 idols in the separate camps and constant team-shifting has complicated the game (and that's a good thing)--it's left everyone in doubt about who's aligned with whom & who may have an idol at their disposal. In some ways I hope it doesn't completely degenerate--last night seemed to teeter on the brink of that as you couldn't tell who was playing whom (e.g., when Mookie & Dreamz were talking to Yauman & Cassandra). Maybe some folks like the ultimate suspense of not knowing who's aligned together, but I think you have to have a certain level of predictability of alliances so people can "root" for one group or another. Thoughts?

[mr. synellinden]

I don't think it's fair to the players and I believe it undermines the integrity of the game. I think it's completely unfair at this stage of the game to take two tribes, merge them, but then divide them in two random teams with the loser immediately voting one out. What is the point of this? How does it help the game or make it more interesting? It starts to make the game more random and filled with chance when things like this happen - which is not the purpose of Survivor - it's a total strategy game and that's why people watch. This doesn't just screw Michelle, but also the people in her alliance. How is this fair to Earl, Cassandra and Yau Man - who were essentially playing against one of their own. And it gives a new lease on life to the people in the tribe that lost every immunity challenge leading up to this stupid challenge.

Okay, that's a bit of a rant but it still is completely unfair to Michelle.

[mr. synellinden]

... throw the immunity challenge knowing they had the numbers to vote out Boo (who hadn't been to exile island) and knowing that Michelle (a key to their alliance) was likely to be voted out if her team lost. That would have been a major strategy move.

[freshmanjs]

... throw the immunity challenge knowing they had the numbers to vote out Boo (who hadn't been to exile island) and knowing that Michelle (a key to their alliance) was likely to be voted out if her team lost. That would have been a major strategy move.

...except for one major problem. They did not know what Jeff's note said. It could have said vote 2 people off or something. They were right to take the safe choice and try to win.

[JasonEvans]

First of all, with Michelle gone I am betting the Early and Yao Man reach out to Boo and make him a part of their alliance. They need votes and he seems to be a man without a country at the moment.

Right now we have Alex, Eduardo, and Stacey who are very tight.

Earl, Yao, and Cassandra seem to be linked. I just cannot imagine Casandra ever joining up with Stacey's team again.

Mookie is leaning strongly toward Alex and Eduardo, giving them 4. But Dreamz will likely go with Cassandra and I am betting he will bond with Earl too, giving them 4.

That makes Boo the kingmaker. Seeing as Boo has been with Earl and Yaoman the past few days, I think Boo will lean toward them, but his decision is a mystery.

I can certainly imagine one or both of the idols being played this week. Thanks to Mookie blabbing to Dreamz, Earl and Yao are going to know that the other team has the idol. I am not sure if Alex and Eduardo will know that Yao and Earl have the other one. That could make it very interesting if Earl finds out that he is targetted by Alex.

I am really enjoying Alex/Eduardo vs. Earl/Yao. Four very good players. Pity only one side can win. I hope it is Earl and Yao but only because I truly loathe Stacy.

-Jason "the divided challenge did not bother me-- no different than any other shuffle in the game" Evans

[JasonEvans]

... throw the immunity challenge knowing they had the numbers to vote out Boo (who hadn't been to exile island) and knowing that Michelle (a key to their alliance) was likely to be voted out if her team lost. That would have been a major strategy move.

Except Michelle would have survived if Dreamz had not been an idiot. The tough part of the boot was that no strategizing was allowed and Dreamz is not smart enough to figure things out on his own. Mookie was very clear with him - if we keep Stacy around, we are the odd men out when we get down to the final 5. Even with that warning, Dreamz was not able to strategize properly to get rid of Stacy.

I know we only get to see an edited portion of Tribal Council, but if Jeff did not ask everyone their voting out plans the way he did to Alex then it is really unfair. I mean, if the point of the note was to prevent people from coordinating their attacks, he blew that badly. I did not like that at all.

As an aside, did Yaoman kick butt in that challenge or what? He is the stealth star of this season's show.

-Jason "the key to the next episode(s) may be that Earl and Yao seem willing to share the idol for their mutual benefit while I doubt that Mookie would give it to Alex or Eduardo to save their lives" Evans

[mr. synellinden]

Except Michelle would have survived if Dreamz had not been an idiot. The tough part of the boot was that no strategizing was allowed and Dreamz is not smart enough to figure things out on his own. Mookie was very clear with him - if we keep Stacy around, we are the odd men out when we get down to the final 5. Even with that warning, Dreamz was not able to strategize properly to get rid of Stacy.

I know we only get to see an edited portion of Tribal Council, but if Jeff did not ask everyone their voting out plans the way he did to Alex then it is really unfair. I mean, if the point of the note was to prevent people from coordinating their attacks, he blew that badly. I did not like that at all.

As an aside, did Yaoman kick butt in that challenge or what? He is the stealth star of this season's show.

-Jason "the key to the next episode(s) may be that Earl and Yao seem willing to share the idol for their mutual benefit while I doubt that Mookie would give it to Alex or Eduardo to save their lives" Evans
Yes, of course Dreamz was an idiot and that was really the key to the episode even though I thought the immunity challenge was unfair. What makes it more shocking is that Dreamz absolutely hates Stacy (and has good reason to as a result of the way she treated him with the whole coffee maker thing) and talked earlier in the episode about wanting to vote her out. We obviously see in the previews for next week how livid Mookie is at Dreamz's stupidity regarding the vote.

I also agree that I would love to see the whole tribal council and whether Jeff asked everyone how they felt about voting everyone else out, but I have to say that Alex seemed to be the only one wise enough to say he had no reason to vote out Stacy (when it seemed pretty clear that it was a Stacy or Michelle vote) - in other words, he was the only one sending a message to everyone else. This doesn't excuse Dreamz for making a boneheaded move however.

I see things the same way - Boo is now the swing vote much like Jonathan was last season and the next episode should be intriguing, especially with the two immunity idols and the fact that the Earl/Yao Man alliance will know that Mookie has the idol.

[JasonEvans]

I see things the same way - Boo is now the swing vote much like Jonathan was last season and the next episode should be intriguing, especially with the two immunity idols and the fact that the Earl/Yao Man alliance will know that Mookie has the idol.

Here is one thing I wonder-- might Mookie decide to bolt the Alex/Eduardo/Stacey alliance and go back with his old friends Earl and Yao now that Alex has kept Stacey around? After all, Mookie knows he is no better than 4th or 5th place in that group unless he goes on a nice immunity run and he'd have to do that while competing against strong guys Alex and Eduardo.

On the other hand, if he gets back with Earl and Yao, he is rejoining 2 people he has been with since the start of the game. When he reveals that it was Dreamz vote that took out Michelle, he can probably use that to turn Earl and Yao against Dreamz. He is then in an alliance with not as many physically strong players-- only Earl would be his physical competitor. Plus, when thigns get down to the final 5, he may be able to be the swing vote between Earl/Yao and Dreamz/Cassandra, automatically putting him in the final 3. I think Mookie is in a better situation if he goes back with his old allies than if he stays with Alex.

Will he do that? I doubt it. I wonder if Boo will figure out that he could play the exact same role?

-Jason "Boo and Mookie-- they are the game right now unless Dreamz turns on Cassandra" Evans

[mr. synellinden]

Here is one thing I wonder-- might Mookie decide to bolt the Alex/Eduardo/Stacey alliance and go back with his old friends Earl and Yao now that Alex has kept Stacey around? After all, Mookie knows he is no better than 4th or 5th place in that group unless he goes on a nice immunity run and he'd have to do that while competing against strong guys Alex and Eduardo.

On the other hand, if he gets back with Earl and Yao, he is rejoining 2 people he has been with since the start of the game. When he reveals that it was Dreamz vote that took out Michelle, he can probably use that to turn Earl and Yao against Dreamz. He is then in an alliance with not as many physically strong players-- only Earl would be his physical competitor. Plus, when thigns get down to the final 5, he may be able to be the swing vote between Earl/Yao and Dreamz/Cassandra, automatically putting him in the final 3. I think Mookie is in a better situation if he goes back with his old allies than if he stays with Alex.

Will he do that? I doubt it. I wonder if Boo will figure out that he could play the exact same role?

-Jason "Boo and Mookie-- they are the game right now unless Dreamz turns on Cassandra" Evans

That COULD be a great strategy for Mookie and would be bad news potentially for Boo. He also has the immunity idol in his pocket to get him to the final 3. However, at this point in the game, that strategy would probably lose Mookie at least three members of the jury (Alex, Eduardo and Stacey). It might also cost him Rocky and Lisi if they see him as having bailed on his tribe. He couldn't get Michelle if he were up against anyone but perhaps Boo or Dreamz (who I don't think are going to be around for the final 3). If he stays with the AES group and they can get Boo to swing the vote, he can take himself to the final four (Boo goes first) and then can use the idol to make the final 3 (Stacey next). And he does so without alienating the jury and probably has a better chance of winning the jury vote.

What I think is really interesting about the whole immunity idol situation is (assuming Mookie stays with Alex/Eduardo/Stacey and Boo stays with Earl et al.) is that even if Earl, et al. know that Mookie/Alex/Eduardo have it, they won't know who would have it to put into play. Similarly, Mookie/Alex/Eduardo wouldn't be able to use it effectively unless they knew for sure who the Earl, et al. group (with Boo and Dreamz) were voting out. It's going to make for some very interesting dynamics - like a game of poker where not tipping your hand is going to be crucial.

The next few weeks are going to have a lot of intriguing variables.

[JasonEvans]

What I think is really interesting about the whole immunity idol situation is (assuming Mookie stays with Alex/Eduardo/Stacey and Boo stays with Earl et al.) is that even if Earl, et al. know that Mookie/Alex/Eduardo have it, they won't know who would have it to put into play. Similarly, Mookie/Alex/Eduardo wouldn't be able to use it effectively unless they knew for sure who the Earl, et al. group (with Boo and Dreamz) were voting out. It's going to make for some very interesting dynamics - like a game of poker where not tipping your hand is going to be crucial.

The next few weeks are going to have a lot of intriguing variables.

I agree- the big advantage that I think Earl and Yao have is that they have not told anyone that they have the idol. In fact, the other side may not even realize that they found it. A key move by Earl would be complaining that there are too many people around camp to dig for the idol.

Strategy is huge this time around.

-Jason "if I am Earl, my votes are going for Eduardo-- I figure he is the least likely to get protected" Evans