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Franzez
03-27-2009, 08:43 AM
I think after his performance against Villanova he should come back and correct last season by winning a Championship in 2010.

We need you G-Man Jr

AIRFORCEDUKIE
03-27-2009, 08:47 AM
Yea, I say he does, not like he is hurting for money and he might not be a lottery pick quite yet, next year if he continues to improve he will be....

Singler is coming back so thats good

Wonder how fast this thread is going to be locked

Airforcedukie

NYC Duke Fan
03-27-2009, 08:48 AM
I think after his performance against Villanova he should come back and correct last season by winning a Championship in 2010.

We need you G-Man Jr

On the DBR Main page there was a link to a WRAL report that said that Henderson has not made up his mind yet and that Singler will be back.

I too want Gerald back badly, but this year's draft class is supposedly a very weak one which might effect his decision.

rthomas
03-27-2009, 08:55 AM
If I were G, I'd declare, sign no agent, see where I stand in the draft, talk to Coach K, talk to dad, shun the NBA, come back to Duke, lead Duke to NCAA Championship, get jersey retired.

drksuh
03-27-2009, 08:57 AM
Nbadraft.net and Draft express both have G going top ten. His reluctance to answer signals most likely that G is gone. The real victim here is K.

bluedev_92
03-27-2009, 09:05 AM
Nbadraft.net and Draft express both have G going top ten. His reluctance to answer signals most likely that G is gone. The real victim here is K.

I don't buy that logic.

jipops
03-27-2009, 09:10 AM
I believe it's pointless to get your hopes up here. He's gone folks, might as well face up to it. Gerald is most likely a lottery pick despite last night's performance. It's very difficult to turn that down. Even as a mid 1st round pick I'd say he's a sure bet to enter the draft. He's had a brilliant career here at Duke and a great guy to have as a part of Duke's program. I'm happy he was here. I hope now he finishes up his degree or at least makes plans to finish. Now it's time to move on.

CDu
03-27-2009, 09:10 AM
Nbadraft.net and Draft express both have G going top ten. His reluctance to answer signals most likely that G is gone. The real victim here is K.

By that logic, Hansbrough et al would have been gone last year. I suspect that Henderson will take his time and gather as much information as he can and will make an informed decision. I take his "I don't know yet" to be a sign that he just doesn't know yet. Unless you're dead-set one way or the other, it doesn't make sense to declare it at that point.

I'm not willing to speculate as to whether he goes. I certainly have my opinion on it, but it's obviously completely uninformed (as will be everyone's opinion on this board who is not named Gerald Henderson). All I can say is that, for selfish reasons, I hope the lure of competing for a Final Four spot and maybe a championship draws him back for one more go at it.

yancem
03-27-2009, 09:10 AM
I'm certainly not in G's position (never have been, never will be) but I can't imagine walking away from college basketball like this. It is one thing if Duke had lost a close game and he had played at least average. But he was 1-14, and nonexistent for long stretches of the game. That is not how a possible lottery pick is supposed to play. I don't think that my ego could allow me to end my career that way.

That being said, I agree with the previous post that silence is not a good sign.

jipops
03-27-2009, 09:11 AM
The real victim here is K.

say what? Did you barf on your keyboard?

Tim1515
03-27-2009, 09:11 AM
http://www.wralsportsfan.com/duke/story/4824547/

Singler is back...Hendo waiting

KyDevilinIL
03-27-2009, 09:20 AM
I'm trying my best not to worry about it. Maybe GH's family situation is such that NBA money isn't the factor it can be for other players, but even if that's true, so what? That's GH's family, and the fact of the matter is that Gerald has a decision to make that will dramatically influence his own lifestyle and finances. And in this particular case, considering Gerald will get advice from both K and his father (who knows the league pretty well), I've got to think GH's decision will be informed and prudent.

My gut says he's not coming back. I generally assume our guys are leaving until they officially announce a decision to stay.

drksuh
03-27-2009, 09:25 AM
For G, the season where he focused on TEAM is over. Now, it is time to focus on the best decision for himself. One bad game will not leave such a bad taste that it makes him desire to return. And comparing him to Hansboring, G is slated to be top ten in the draft, a position that Hansboring will never be projected to achieve. Folks, the writing is on the wall; G is gone. And next season will be tough.

whereinthehellami
03-27-2009, 09:32 AM
Weak draft and Hendo's stock has shot up the charts. Granted he just had a bad game but Nova really went after him.

If he is lottery, he is gone and should go. And I think he will be lottery.

AIRFORCEDUKIE
03-27-2009, 09:33 AM
For G, the season where he focused on TEAM is over. Now, it is time to focus on the best decision for himself. One bad game will not leave such a bad taste that it makes him desire to return. And comparing him to Hansboring, G is slated to be top ten in the draft, a position that Hansboring will never be projected to achieve. Folks, the writing is on the wall; G is gone. And next season will be tough.

Hopefully you aren't suggesting that losing G alone would make next season tough we still would have a solid lineup coming back that would have Kyle and Jon in it. Also a few other guys a year older and better I am optomisic either way.

Airforcedukie

The Gordog
03-27-2009, 09:35 AM
I'm certainly not in G's position (never have been, never will be) but I can't imagine walking away from college basketball like this. It is one thing if Duke had lost a close game and he had played at least average. But he was 1-14, and nonexistent for long stretches of the game. That is not how a possible lottery pick is supposed to play. I don't think that my ego could allow me to end my career that way.

That being said, I agree with the previous post that silence is not a good sign.

I agree with yancem. I can't imagine going out like that, but he'll probably talk to a lot of folks before making a decision so who knows.

Either way it was great having him on the team and he will always be a Dukie in my mind, just as Brand, JWill, Boozer. I very much hope that if he leaves he will finish his degree.

whereinthehellami
03-27-2009, 09:36 AM
For G, the season where he focused on TEAM is over. Now, it is time to focus on the best decision for himself. One bad game will not leave such a bad taste that it makes him desire to return. And comparing him to Hansboring, G is slated to be top ten in the draft, a position that Hansboring will never be projected to achieve. Folks, the writing is on the wall; G is gone. And next season will be tough.

Will next season be tough in the ACC? Who do you pick as the team that rises past Duke? It is going to be a down year in the ACC. Duke, UNC, and Clemson will all be right there.

CDu
03-27-2009, 09:43 AM
A lot may depend upon which underclassmen go. A guy like Evans from Memphis would go ahead of Henderson, thanks to his ability to handle the ball. The same holds true for DeMar DeRozan. Note that Chris Ford doesn't have Henderson in his top-10, and that top-10 doesn't include Evans. A lot can happen in the next month or two to change his status.

feldspar
03-27-2009, 09:45 AM
If G decides to leave, I'll be the first to thank him for some wonderful memories and wish him the best in the NBA.

If he decides to come back, I'll faint and pinch myself, then scream with glee.

But I'm betting on the former.

bluebear
03-27-2009, 09:55 AM
If G decides to leave, I'll be the first to thank him for some wonderful memories and wish him the best in the NBA.

If he decides to come back, I'll faint and pinch myself, then scream with glee.

But I'm betting on the former.

I agree..No one should fault him or be surprised if he leaves despite the game yesterday. He has the potential to be a great pro..
If we were to lose only one of GH or KS, Duke is better off losing G. Henderson may be a better player at this point but losing KS would make us even more one dimensional.
I hope we don't lose either..

CMS2478
03-27-2009, 09:57 AM
Hopefully you aren't suggesting that losing G alone would make next season tough we still would have a solid lineup coming back that would have Kyle and Jon in it. Also a few other guys a year older and better I am optomisic either way.

Airforcedukie

I think he/she is suggesting that we would return the same team basically minus Henderson, so how would we really expect to go a whole lot further? I'm really not trying to be Debbie Downer here because I love the guys on the team, but we got exposed last night and without a point guard that can penetrate or a presence down low we can't expect much more. I don't blame this all on Coach K, bc it's not like we haven't tried to recruit PG's or Big Guys.....they just haven't came. We were stone cold last night from outside and didn't have the option of someone like a Jay Williams penetrating or posting up an Elton Brand. On nights when your shooting is off you need those type of players that you can rely on to score inside or drive in a for a layup, we simply didn't have that last night and unless something happens, won't have it next year either. I know I sound like a doubter, but sometimes you just have to stop sugar coating things and be honest.

Spret42
03-27-2009, 09:58 AM
I'm certainly not in G's position (never have been, never will be) but I can't imagine walking away from college basketball like this. It is one thing if Duke had lost a close game and he had played at least average. But he was 1-14, and nonexistent for long stretches of the game. That is not how a possible lottery pick is supposed to play. I don't think that my ego could allow me to end my career that way.

That being said, I agree with the previous post that silence is not a good sign.

I agree that playing the way Henderson played isn't the kind of way one wants to end a career. However a year of college ball is a lot to commit to due to one sub par game against a very good opponent. The performance can honestly be as much attributed to the play and ability of his teammates as much as his play. Take Henderson and Cunningham and switch teams. Henderson goes for 25 and 8 against Duke with that Villanova group.

I have no idea whether he stays and if asked my opinion on what he should do I wouldn't be able to fully commit to either decision. He is skilled enough to play in the NBA, he is physically mature enough, he has a good head on his shoulders and an NBA pedigree. He could very easily go pro and continue his development. Or he could stay in college, where there is the significant upside of continuing to learn to take over and completely dictate the game, much in the way Grant Hill did in 1994. He is not in a financial bind. If he enjoys the college process, stay in college.

His silence to me shows an understanding of the need to think things through.

AIRFORCEDUKIE
03-27-2009, 10:00 AM
I think he/she is suggesting that we would return the same team basically minus Henderson, so how would we really expect to go a whole lot further? I'm really not trying to be Debbie Downer here because I love the guys on the team, but we got exposed last night and without a point guard that can penetrate or a presence down low we can't expect much more. I don't blame this all on Coach K, bc it's not like we haven't tried to recruit PG's or Big Guys.....they just haven't came. We were stone cold last night from outside and didn't have the option of someone like a Jay Williams penetrating or posting up an Elton Brand. On nights when your shooting is off you need those type of players that you can rely on to score inside or drive in a for a layup, we simply didn't have that last night and unless something happens, won't have it next year either. I know I sound like a doubter, but sometimes you just have to stop sugar coating things and be honest.

Good points, I agree mostly but I do think that we can still get past the sweet 16 without Henderson. But you never know, we could get Henderson back and not make it out of the first or second round next year as well. Luckily it looks like the ACC will be down next year and the BE wont be as great as they are this year either. Anyway its always fun to speculate and predict

CMS2478
03-27-2009, 10:00 AM
I agree that playing the way Henderson played isn't the kind of way one wants to end a career. However a year of college ball is a lot to commit to due to one sub par game against a very good opponent. The performance can honestly be as much attributed to the play and ability of his teammates as much as his play. Take Henderson and Cunningham and switch teams. Henderson goes for 25 and 8 against Duke with that Villanova group.

I have no idea whether he stays and if asked my opinion on what he should do I wouldn't be able to fully commit to either decision. He is skilled enough to play in the NBA, he is physically mature enough, he has a good head on his shoulders and an NBA pedigree. He could very easily go pro and continue his development. Or he could stay in college, where there is the significant upside of continuing to learn to take over and completely dictate the game, much in the way Grant Hill did in 1994. He is not in a financial bind. If he enjoys the college process, stay in college.

His silence to me shows an understanding of the need to think things through.

Very good post!!!

UrinalCake
03-27-2009, 10:03 AM
I'm certainly not in G's position (never have been, never will be) but I can't imagine walking away from college basketball like this.

Let's be honest here, the ultimate goal that every one of these guys has is to make it to the NBA. That's the reason they're playing in college. They might enjoy the college experience as an added bonus, but it's not their primary purpose. I enjoyed my college years at Duke too, but if someone offered me several million dollars during my junior year, I obviously would have left in a heartbeat.

IMO the only reason he would stay is if he thinks it will improve his draft position. Given the rookie salary scale, it might make sense financially to stay another year and be drafted in the top 5 versus leaving now and being drafted top 10-15. But then again leaving early gets the clock rolling sooner on that initial, fixed contract.

Also I would think that the NBA people would want him to improve his outside shot a little, since he'd be a SG. Just my opinion again.

CDu
03-27-2009, 10:05 AM
Good points, I agree mostly but I do think that we can still get past the sweet 16 without Henderson. But you never know, we could get Henderson back and not make it out of the first or second round next year as well. Luckily it looks like the ACC will be down next year and the BE wont be as great as they are this year either. Anyway its always fun to speculate and predict

If we don't have Henderson next year, we are going to have to get a LOT more out of Williams and Smith. And we'll probably have to get a post presence. I think last night illustrated how important Henderson was to the team's offense. From January to March, he was the one guy who consistently was able to create his own shot on his own night in and night out. When he didn't have it, the offense looked putrid.

We don't necessarily need one of Williams and Smith to become as good as Henderson, but both would need to expand their games offensively so as to provide two more options to replace the huge option we'd lose in that scenario. And we'd probably need to add another guard to the mix to fill minutes, as we'd have only 3 guards in that rotation.

GopherBlue
03-27-2009, 10:14 AM
Nbadraft.net and Draft express both have G going top ten. His reluctance to answer signals most likely that G is gone. The real victim here is K.

His reluctance to answer most likely signals he doesn't yet know for certain. Remember, G is a Jr, and has one opportunity to declare for the draft, go through workouts and get evaluations, and then make the decision....even if he is 98% sure he'll return.

Not a great comparison, but think about what Danny Green did last year - it didn't make a lot of sense at the time, and was handled kinda poorly, but in the end seemed to benefit him. I only see upside with going through the process (barring injury).

Victim? You lost me there....

SMO
03-27-2009, 10:20 AM
If I were G, I'd declare, sign no agent, see where I stand in the draft, talk to Coach K, talk to dad, shun the NBA, come back to Duke, lead Duke to NCAA Championship, get jersey retired.

This is not an unrealistic scenario at all. I think the biggest stretch is the NCAA title but only because it always pays to take the field.

freedevil
03-27-2009, 10:22 AM
The "victim" line is UNC trolling, a reference to K's poor choice of words after Henderson connected with Hansbrough's face.

jv001
03-27-2009, 10:22 AM
It would be a bad way to go out, but we don't know what a young man like G is thinking. He needs time to piece together the information he will get from his dad, Coach K and others familar with the NBA. I heard the so called experts say this years draft is a weak one. I would think that would come into play in G's decision. I hope he returns but I'm confident we will be pretty good next year. Not FF good, but maybe Sweet Sixteen good. That all depends on how some players progress over the summer and just how good Kelly and Mason are when October arrives. Maybe we will get an unexpected signee at PG just as we got Miles last year. No matter what we will still be
DUKE. GO DUKE!

SMO
03-27-2009, 10:23 AM
Also I would think that the NBA people would want him to improve his outside shot a little, since he'd be a SG. Just my opinion again.

I think they'd also like him to improve his ball handling a little and his ability to drive left. Minor improvements, but the added year could get him there. I think the main case for him going this year vs. next is that this year's draft will be weak. He's a great candidate for NPOY next year and I hope he values that.

Zeke
03-27-2009, 10:38 AM
Realizing that an injury on one drive to the basket - in a game or practice -could hurt/end his NBA career. If that occurred at Duke that is just too bad. If it's after the NBA contract is in force then he's financially OK. I just don't know how GH could even consider not going to the NBA. There is seriously big money there.

freedevil
03-27-2009, 10:41 AM
One bad game on Gerald's part probably won't change the minds of many scouts, particularly since few teams in the NBA play defense the way Villanova did last night (and before someone freaks out on me, note the slight sarcasm/exaggeration in that statement pertaining to NBA defense, please).

KandG
03-27-2009, 10:42 AM
I've always felt he would be gone, taking away the emotion of the loss last night or any attachment to Duke.

The draft this year is so wide open that people can't even agree on who the number 2 pick will be, let alone numbers 3 to 12. I also feel that unlike players like Ellington, Lawson, or Green last year, Gerald is considerably more attractive and more ready for the NBA, and he's competing this year against several players that are even more raw and have more questions.

The only thing that might knock him down is teams' questions about his height (which wouldn't change significantly from this year to next year) or his ballhandling and general offensive game -- his defense is already considered advanced. I really don't know if the ability to improve his game with another year more outweighs the risk of injury, or enables him to jump numerous spots in the 2010 draft.

Kedsy
03-27-2009, 10:46 AM
I think they'd also like him to improve his ball handling a little and his ability to drive left. Minor improvements, but the added year could get him there. I think the main case for him going this year vs. next is that this year's draft will be weak. He's a great candidate for NPOY next year and I hope he values that.

This has come up before, but he'll certainly be capable of working on his ball handling, his left hand, his shooting, whatever, while on an NBA roster at least as well as he can on a college roster. More capable, actually, because he doesn't have to worry about classes, etc.

Obviously I hope G stays, but I think the decision will and should be based on his own needs and desires. I don't think the "weakness" of this year's draft will come into play as much as some have suggested. This year he's borderline lottery, probably middle of the first round. Plus he starts the contract clock a year earlier, which in the long term is worth a fair amount of money. If he comes back and has the year we expect him too, he'll probably be a solid middle of the lottery pick (even in a stronger draft), and have a better chance to play right away. He'll also have a chance of getting injured in college which could damage his prospects.

He has to balance all those factors, plus some probably that I can't even guess, and see which way comes out on top. It's not obvious, at least to me, so I certainly don't think he's definitely gone. He has some excellent advisors (K, G, Sr.) and I hope he makes the best decision for himself.

davekay1971
03-27-2009, 10:47 AM
Normally I'm one to entertain speculation, but this whole thread is pretty much nothing but baseless guessing. The man gave one statement that he had to think about it. Okay, fair enough. So we wait and give the young man time to make an important decision.

Thanks for a great year, G, and I hope to see you back in a Duke uniform one more year. If not, good luck at the next level. I'd ask you to throw it down over Hansbrough, but that will be difficult what with him sitting at the end of the bench.

Kedsy
03-27-2009, 10:52 AM
I'm really not trying to be Debbie Downer here because I love the guys on the team, but we got exposed last night and without a point guard that can penetrate or a presence down low we can't expect much more.

We didn't get "exposed" last night, we just got beaten by a team who played harder than we did.

Duke will be good next year, G or no G. How good depends on how ready Kelly and the two Plumlees (and I suppose Czyz, but I'm not holding my breath on that) are to contribute. The team will look very different without G, but assuming at least a couple of the young big men can provide effective minutes, Duke will be a hard team to match up with.

UrinalCake
03-27-2009, 10:55 AM
Realizing that an injury on one drive to the basket - in a game or practice -could hurt/end his NBA career. If that occurred at Duke that is just too bad. If it's after the NBA contract is in force then he's financially OK. I just don't know how GH could even consider not going to the NBA. There is seriously big money there.

I don't have the rookie salary scale in front of me but I'm estimating that a #5-10 pick is probably locked in at $1-2million/year for three years. So if he permanently injured himself during his first NBA game, it's not like he'd be financially set for life. Getting a Duke degree, however, would pay enormous dividends.

I've heard Jason Williams say that getting his degree and making the connections he made during his extra year back were invaluable after his accident which destroyed his career. Had he left after his sophomore year and then had that accident, who knows where he'd be. Also, don't most players get insurance for exactly this scenario?

freshmanjs
03-27-2009, 11:00 AM
I don't have the rookie salary scale in front of me but I'm estimating that a #5-10 pick is probably locked in at $1-2million/year for three years. So if he permanently injured himself during his first NBA game, it's not like he'd be financially set for life. Getting a Duke degree, however, would pay enormous dividends.

I've heard Jason Williams say that getting his degree and making the connections he made during his extra year back were invaluable after his accident which destroyed his career. Had he left after his sophomore year and then had that accident, who knows where he'd be. Also, don't most players get insurance for exactly this scenario?

never understood this logic at all. how would G going pro limit his ability to get a degree in any way?

HDB
03-27-2009, 11:01 AM
I think G is gone. His game is much more "NBA ready" than is Singler's at the moment and I really don't see that he'll be able to appreciably add to his game next year to appreciably improve his draft position. Just my $0.02.

CDu
03-27-2009, 11:03 AM
Getting a Duke degree, however, would pay enormous dividends.

And how would going to the NBA now prevent Henderson from getting a degree? Could he not finish his degree in the summer like many before him have done in the past? I don't see the "he can get a degree" argument as being relevant.

If you want to make the argument that he can graduate with his class, that's a different story. It's a much less powerful argument, but at least it's logically sound.

77devil
03-27-2009, 11:08 AM
The only thing that might knock him down is teams' questions about his height (which wouldn't change significantly from this year to next year) or his ballhandling and general offensive game -- his defense is already considered advanced.

I suspect Gerald will have access to NBA information through his father that, like Mike Dunleavy, will allow him to know his draft position very precisely. He could very well receive advice that another year in college working on his ability to create from the perimeter, handle the ball, and to go left would improve his stock. Without more development in these areas, he is more limited by his size. If a team is willing take a chance, however, as GS did with Mike, it's hard to imagine Gerald will stay.

And there's always the PGA to consider. ;)

Spret42
03-27-2009, 11:36 AM
I don't have the rookie salary scale in front of me but I'm estimating that a #5-10 pick is probably locked in at $1-2million/year for three years. So if he permanently injured himself during his first NBA game, it's not like he'd be financially set for life. Getting a Duke degree, however, would pay enormous dividends.

I've heard Jason Williams say that getting his degree and making the connections he made during his extra year back were invaluable after his accident which destroyed his career. Had he left after his sophomore year and then had that accident, who knows where he'd be. Also, don't most players get insurance for exactly this scenario?

Would Jason Williams not have been able to return to Duke and pick up his studies if he had left after his sophomore year and gotten injured? Wouldn't the insurance have covered the tuition? I am not cracking wise but actually asking this question.

I don't see how Henderson leaving after his junior year means he could not eventually finish the degree.

UrinalCake
03-27-2009, 11:41 AM
And how would going to the NBA now prevent Henderson from getting a degree?

Yes, absolutely he could still get a degree if he leaves early. My original point was to counter the notion that he should leave for fear of injury. I think the whole injury angle gets kind of overblown sometimes. Perhaps a larger concern should be that he stays and doesn't show significant improvement, or his weaknesses are exposed (i.e. Hansbrough).

Again, all of this is just speculation that I'm making because I'm bored and am not ready for basketball to be over with 8-(

DukeDevil
03-27-2009, 11:42 AM
I agree..No one should fault him or be surprised if he leaves despite the game yesterday. He has the potential to be a great pro..
If we were to lose only one of GH or KS, Duke is better off losing G. Henderson may be a better player at this point but losing KS would make us even more one dimensional.
I hope we don't lose either..

oh...I wouldn't fault him at all, I'd jump onto that opportunity like a ...

the metaphor that immediately came to mind would earn me a warning.

However, just because I don't fault him, doesn't mean I have to be happy about it.

RelativeWays
03-27-2009, 12:02 PM
Let's make one thing clear about the whole draft thing. If G is a 1st rounder because its a weak draft, then he is a late 1st rounder and could slide into the 2nd round. I don't think anyone here believes that so, we can assume its G's athleticism and potential that have him as a 1st rounder and thus would be a 1st rounder next year as well. If he goes higher this year because of the weak draft, he can also go higher next year by having a great senior season and tourney, finsihing AA and all that. Yes he can get injured, but he can also get injured during pre draft work outs too. Also an asteroid can hit the Earth and kill everyone. Lets look at the reasons for going vs staying.

*G goes pro because:
1. He's a guaranteed 1st rounder in a weak draft
2. he feels his college game has reached its potential
3. He feels he's at the age to start a pro career (not unreasonable at all)
4. He doesn't care about being picked by a team that needs him versus being picked best available and rides the bench. As long as he gets paid.
5. He's worried about injury
6. He doesn't honestly see Duke making a championship run (given that alot would ride on who we could recruit for PG, that could be true).
7. 3 years of college is enough....more than enough.

*G stays because
1. He's a guaranteed first rounder next year, why rush?
2. No burden of trying to lift the family out of the po house
3. He loves college
4. He thinks Duke has a legit shot at a national title and thats important to him
5. He wants a shot at being the big dog, he will be a preseason AA and K will taylor the offense for him. It'll be a 94 redux.
6. He wants to potentially raise his stock by perfomance and thus drafted by need, not best available.
7. No hurry to play for LAC or GS...thats like an 80 day trip to the dentist.
8. H can improve his game substantially before going to the next level.


I'm not saying one trumps the other, those are just the reasons I come up with. I think G is really considering all factors. I'll hate it if he leaves, but I sure as heck won't be mad at him. He'll always be a Blue Devil.

Salty Breezes
03-27-2009, 12:03 PM
Like the rest of you, I have no idea what G is going to do, and trust that he will weigh all factors carefully.

I'm more interested in how the financial state of the NBA may affect the decisions of those intelligent few (like G) who have the ability to make a draft choice given the writing on the wall -- that the salary cap is coming down, that several NBA teams are in serious financial trouble, and that a lockout is a distinct possibility in the near future.

If it were me, I'd try to lock in a salary now. Next year, the same talent could be worth less cash.

RelativeWays
03-27-2009, 12:14 PM
Like the rest of you, I have no idea what G is going to do, and trust that he will weigh all factors carefully.

I'm more interested in how the financial state of the NBA may affect the decisions of those intelligent few (like G) who have the ability to make a draft choice given the writing on the wall -- that the salary cap is coming down, that several NBA teams are in serious financial trouble, and that a lockout is a distinct possibility in the near future.

If it were me, I'd try to lock in a salary now. Next year, the same talent could be worth less cash.


Actually there is a potential lock out looming in 2011. That may be the biggest factor in G's decision.

BlueintheFace
03-27-2009, 12:23 PM
Actually there is a potential lock out looming in 2011. That may be the biggest factor in G's decision.

I really don't buy the lockout talk.

My guess is that G declares. If he receives a top 10 pick guarantee from a team then he will stay. If not, I think his friendship with Jon will bring him back for another year. I don't know if people realize how ridiculously close those two are.

Saratoga2
03-27-2009, 01:07 PM
Let's make one thing clear about the whole draft thing. If G is a 1st rounder because its a weak draft, then he is a late 1st rounder and could slide into the 2nd round. I don't think anyone here believes that so, we can assume its G's athleticism and potential that have him as a 1st rounder and thus would be a 1st rounder next year as well. If he goes higher this year because of the weak draft, he can also go higher next year by having a great senior season and tourney, finsihing AA and all that. Yes he can get injured, but he can also get injured during pre draft work outs too. Also an asteroid can hit the Earth and kill everyone. Lets look at the reasons for going vs staying.

*G goes pro because:
1. He's a guaranteed 1st rounder in a weak draft
2. he feels his college game has reached its potential
3. He feels he's at the age to start a pro career (not unreasonable at all)
4. He doesn't care about being picked by a team that needs him versus being picked best available and rides the bench. As long as he gets paid.
5. He's worried about injury
6. He doesn't honestly see Duke making a championship run (given that alot would ride on who we could recruit for PG, that could be true).
7. 3 years of college is enough....more than enough.

*G stays because
1. He's a guaranteed first rounder next year, why rush?
2. No burden of trying to lift the family out of the po house
3. He loves college
4. He thinks Duke has a legit shot at a national title and thats important to him
5. He wants a shot at being the big dog, he will be a preseason AA and K will taylor the offense for him. It'll be a 94 redux.
6. He wants to potentially raise his stock by perfomance and thus drafted by need, not best available.
7. No hurry to play for LAC or GS...thats like an 80 day trip to the dentist.
8. H can improve his game substantially before going to the next level.


I'm not saying one trumps the other, those are just the reasons I come up with. I think G is really considering all factors. I'll hate it if he leaves, but I sure as heck won't be mad at him. He'll always be a Blue Devil.

He will probably test the waters by going to the camp but not signing with an agent. My understanding is that allows him to opt back to Duke if things don't look as rosy.

Given that foreign players are taking a significant percentage of open positions and that there may only be a few locks in college basketball (Griffin, Thabeet and Tyreke Evans and possibly Lawson), I would say that Gerald may find himself in the late first round or even the 2nd round. He is probably slightly under 6'4", and there are a lot of athletic players that size vying for the open positions.

I think he has some things to work on, including ball security and mental parts of the game, like not forcing shots that aren't there. Another year would be good for Duke and could be good for Gerald as well.

SilkyJ
03-27-2009, 01:20 PM
My guess is that G declares. If he receives a top 10 pick guarantee from a team then he will stay. If not, I think his friendship with Jon will bring him back for another year. I don't know if people realize how ridiculously close those two are.

Yea I sent a couple of friends who are still at Duke a note asking them their thoughts WRT to G as they occasionally hang with the team, and they said something similar about G and Jon. I knew they were buds, but until this year and seeing them interact on the court and the Blueplanet videos (and now some anecdotes) I had no idea they were such good friends.

That said, I dont think thats the only big factor in him returning if he's not a top 10 pick, or more importantly, if intelligent GMs tell him that he could still improve his game more in college, i.e. its not all about draft position.

I think he started to get a feel for what it means to really turn it on in college, but he only did it for half a season. I think Coach K can still get more out of him and I think hearing that from Coach (assuming K agrees) may have just as big of an impact as anything else.


He will probably test the waters by going to the camp but not signing with an agent. My understanding is that allows him to opt back to Duke if things don't look as rosy.


Yessir, thats how it works and I assume that's what he'll do as well. No reason not to, really...

Oriole Way
03-27-2009, 01:22 PM
I suspect Gerald will have access to NBA information through his father that, like Mike Dunleavy, will allow him to know his draft position very precisely. He could very well receive advice that another year in college working on his ability to create from the perimeter, handle the ball, and to go left would improve his stock. Without more development in these areas, he is more limited by his size. If a team is willing take a chance, however, as GS did with Mike, it's hard to imagine Gerald will stay.

And there's always the PGA to consider. ;)

Coach K has way more NBA connections that would give him a better idea of where Gerald would go in the draft. So K would actually be the best person to give Gerald an idea of where he would be drafted.

I think Gerald will go, but I wouldn't be surprised if he stayed. I really do believe that Gerald hurt his draft stock by a few spots. Just like players can play themselves into the first round, or into the lottery, with almost nothing more than a hot tournament performance, players can also hurt their draft stock with a bad one. Gerald had a nightmare last game which happened to highlight some of his shortcomings. His whole NCAA tournament was some of his worst play of the season.

Scouts and GM's value players who step up on the biggest stage, which is one of the reasons you see players get drafted earlier than they otherwise would have thanks to strong play in the tourney. If Ty Lawson, for example, plays great and leads UNC to the championship, he could very possibly jump ahead of Gerald on many teams' draft boards, especially those that need a PG (good PG's are quite scarce in the NBA, much more so than 6"4 shooting guards).

It makes sense that struggling in the tourney would hurt a little bit - not drastically, because NBA people already know what Gerald can do, and he brings so many talents that they love to the table - but it could drop him a few spots on the draft board nevertheless.

Like I said, I think Gerald is probably gone. But it's possible he played his way from a lock lottery pick to a questionable lottery pick, and it could affect his decision.

geraldsneighbor
03-27-2009, 01:46 PM
I really don't buy the lockout talk.

My guess is that G declares. If he receives a top 10 pick guarantee from a team then he will stay. If not, I think his friendship with Jon will bring him back for another year. I don't know if people realize how ridiculously close those two are.

See, I think while Jon wants the best for G for G to leave for his senior year and hang him out in a way has to be a factor. G isn't an all about me kind of guy, and I think that is a factor. G has said numerous times it isn't about getting to the NBA, its about making an impact. He still needs some in development and just because he was silent over what to him felt like losing to UNC the FF being they played Nova shouldn't be used as "G is gone." I think G is back and brighter things loom for this team.

Also, if he does declare: Let's not panic until he signs with an agent. CH went through the same stuff last year, and things panned out. Hopefully, this will work its self out for us.

InSpades
03-27-2009, 01:58 PM
I think there's more to his stock falling thing than just 1 game. If you look at his season objectively, he started off pretty invisible, went to amazing, and then finished the season very poorly. I'm not just talking about his last game, anyone can have 1 bad game. His last 10 games were bad (everything since his magnificent Wake Forest game). He shot better than 50% once in the last 10 games, and better than 40% only twice (so 8 out of 10 he was 40% or less). Overall he was 35% from the floor in those 10 games. He was 27% from 3.

He obviously would be drafted regardless of this all due to potential, but potential only gets you so far. It's not like he's a 6'5" point guard, he's a 6'4" shooting guard. I could see him slipping in the draft. He's certainly a first rounder but I doubt he'd go in the lottery. He may be better off going this year just because it's a weaker class.

I'm not overly concerned, I hope Gerald does what is right for Gerald and wish him the best whatever he does. Duke will be good next year either way, having Kyle come back was vital and is amazing news. Without Gerald... Duke will have to go bigger next year. You'd see a lot of Kyle/Kelly at the 3 spot with Smith/Scheyer/Williams the only guards seeing real time. Maybe we get a guard recruit and then that would allow us to play 3 guards more which would be nice. The key for Duke would be how good the freshman perform. If Kelly comes in and performs as well as Kyle did his freshman year then Duke would be in great shape. You know Nolan and Elliot are gonna improve a lot this summer.

ncexnyc
03-27-2009, 02:01 PM
I could be wrong, but I don't believe the G that leveled Hasbro, because he didn't appreciate his dunking at the end of the game and the G that got downright nasty after Neal leveled Nolan is the type of kid who is worried about jumping to the NBA right now.

I believe he is totally disgusted with the way things went down last night and isn't to pleased with the way he was punked by Nova, he'll be back, the kid's to proud to walk away with unfinished business on the table.

Just my take watching Mr. Henderson these past 3 years.

OldSchool
03-27-2009, 02:06 PM
Posters above have done a good job of identifying the pros and cons of the decision facing Gerald, so I'll just highlight a couple.

If G comes back, G will be THE leader of the team next year. Unquestioned, no doubt about it. It will be HIS team, not Kyle's or Jon's or anyone else's. The situation will force him to prove himself as a leader. G is unlikely to have that situation in the NBA, except it is possible that after years of improvement, if he does develop his skills to the level of someone like a Dwyane Wade, he has a shot at being the leader of an NBA team, like a Kobe or a LeBron. If he comes back, he will be the Kobe of Duke next year, both the most talented player AND the leader of the team. Career military officers will tell you that the most exhilarating time of their careers was as commanding officer of a unit, even at a relatively junior rank, and not when they were higher-ranking officers on the staff of some large command. There is no greater test of the mettle of a person than being a leader. K is especially attuned to this, and looks to develop leaders. The opportunity to, as the leader of a team, accomplish something great is an opportunity that is available to only a relatively few and may not come along more than once in a career.

On the opposite side, is the risk of a career-limiting or –ending injury. Think of Shaun Livingston. This is an even greater risk for G because he is a high-flyer at only 6’-4”. And there seems to be more thuggish play on the court than in years past, possibly a reflection of the increased thuggishness and classlessness of fans. A career-ending injury can also occur off the court, witness JWill. If G decides to stay and sustains an injury that affects his NBA career, he might be kicking himself for the decision for the rest of his life.

ChicagoCrazy84
03-27-2009, 02:41 PM
I would love for G to watch tape of Brandon Roy all summer long then come back for his senior year and try to finish it out on a good note with his best friends. I think he will have success in the NBA, but he needs to learn a lot about moving with/without the ball and creating. Remember, this guy is incredibly athletic, but when he gets to the NBA, he'll be just another fish in the sea when it comes to athleticism. I still don't think he truly knows how to be a "true scorer" which is why I think getting a lot of tape on Brandon Roy and just watching him operate with a smoothness that he does not have yet.

CDu
03-27-2009, 02:54 PM
I would love for G to watch tape of Brandon Roy all summer long then come back for his senior year and try to finish it out on a good note with his best friends. I think he will have success in the NBA, but he needs to learn a lot about moving with/without the ball and creating. Remember, this guy is incredibly athletic, but when he gets to the NBA, he'll be just another fish in the sea when it comes to athleticism. I still don't think he truly knows how to be a "true scorer" which is why I think getting a lot of tape on Brandon Roy and just watching him operate with a smoothness that he does not have yet.

I think this is the biggest thing people fail to realize about the jump to the NBA. In college, a 6'4" guy with Henderson's hops can dominate on athleticism alone. In the NBA? Not so much. That's not to say Henderson can't be an impact player at the next level. But it doesn't mean he's a slam dunk lottery pick this year either.

I think Roy is an interesting role model. Henderson is a more explosive leaper, but both are similar athletically otherwise. Roy had a much more versatile game. One might argue that Roy had an "old man's game," in spite of being pretty athletic. Interestingly, the two have fairly similar peripheral stat lines as juniors. The big difference is that Roy was a 57% shooter from the field as a junior (Henderson was 47%), and Roy was a better overall defender while Henderson was the more prolific scorer.

Roy really didn't take off until his senior year. He became a 20, 5, and 4 guy with great defensive skills. Henderson took off this year as a scorer, but not as a playmaker or as an EFFICIENT scorer. Roy was just so efficient offensively and so versatile. It would be nice to see Henderson return and show those skills as well.

Edouble
03-27-2009, 03:23 PM
I think G would be making a big mistake if he left after this year. He plays the position where there is the biggest glut of talent in the league. Right now, I see Henderson, in NBA terms, as a McCants without the consistant shot.

'Nova's defense made him look a little bit like a one trick pony. When he goes up against an elite team with a full load of athleticism, he has problems. It's true that in the NBA, he won't be as full of a focus for the other team's defense as he was last night, BUT he will have to go up against better one on one defenders with much bigger dudes waiting in the paint.

When I look at G, I don't see "NBA Superstar" written all over him. His game just isn't mature enough yet. I think he has the potential, if he stays one more year, to be a Ben Gordon type of player, an undersized guy who was just embarrassing people in his last year at UConn. Players tend to develop more in college than they do in the pros. When you sign to a team, you are expected to compete for PT right away. If G stays another year, he'll have another college season with the green light to shoot 15-20 shots a game. I think that would be better for his long term development. He does not yet have the ability to consistently go left. His shot selection could also use some work.

Selfishly, I'd love to see G come back for another year as a pre-season All-American and Sportscenter Top 10 fixture, then have him go on to be an impact NBA player. I feel like there is a strong possibility that if he goes this year, he'll get some PT for a few seasons then fade into obscurity when his team drafts a 6'6" SG over him a few years later.

One thing that no one has mentioned yet is the fact that G began really developing his game very late at Duke. In basketball development time, he's really only been here about a year and a half. I think that one more year would pay off in spades for his future pro career.

Zeke
03-27-2009, 03:35 PM
I don't have the rookie salary scale in front of me but I'm estimating that a #5-10 pick is probably locked in at $1-2million/year for three years. So if he permanently injured himself during his first NBA game, it's not like he'd be financially set for life. Getting a Duke degree, however, would pay enormous dividends.

I've heard Jason Williams say that getting his degree and making the connections he made during his extra year back were invaluable after his accident which destroyed his career. Had he left after his sophomore year and then had that accident, who knows where he'd be. Also, don't most players get insurance for exactly this scenario?
Going NBA and finishing his degree are not mutually exclusive. Besides, $6,000,000 would pretty much cover tuition most schools

Les Grossman
03-27-2009, 05:01 PM
I'll wish him well if he goes, and I am a fan, but the idea that he is a lottery pick in the NBA strikes me as silly--unless the quality of play in that league has badly fallen off.

G has awesome athletic skill, but his game has a long way to go. He improved this year at Duke and would doubtless improve again next year, if he stayed. He has plenty of room for improvement. His jump shot just isn't good enough, tends to poor shot selection, especially in the crunch, and still, occasionally, just disappears for stretches.

CDu
03-27-2009, 05:10 PM
I'll wish him well if he goes, and I am a fan, but the idea that he is a lottery pick in the NBA strikes me as silly--unless the quality of play in that league has badly fallen off.

G has awesome athletic skill, but his game has a long way to go. He improved this year at Duke and would doubtless improve again next year, if he stayed. He has plenty of room for improvement. His jump shot just isn't good enough, tends to poor shot selection, especially in the crunch, and still, occasionally, just disappears for stretches.

It's not a diminished quality of play in the NBA that would make Henderson a lottery pick. It's the weakness of this year's draft class. Henderson would be a lottery pick, but he's likely to be a role player at the next level given his current skill set. Just because you're a lottery pick doesn't mean you're destined for stardom. Make no mistake, the NBA has no shortage of quality talent. This just happens to be a weaker draft class. That said, I'm not convinced that Henderson will be a lottery pick this year.

BD80
03-27-2009, 05:41 PM
If he stays, G gets a senior day against unc.

Mongo like.

TriGuy
03-27-2009, 05:49 PM
By that logic, Hansbrough et al would have been gone last year . . . .

But then, no one ever claimed T was the sharpest pencil in the drawer . . .

dukestheheat
03-27-2009, 06:14 PM
If I were G, I'd declare, sign no agent, see where I stand in the draft, talk to Coach K, talk to dad, shun the NBA, come back to Duke, lead Duke to NCAA Championship, get jersey retired.

...makes total sense, and I suspect that that's just what he'll do. A mock draft has him at 19 right now; he's much more capable than that and it'd probably be a good financial move for him to return and watch his status go from 19 to lottery pick.

dth.

DukieBoy
03-28-2009, 02:38 AM
Just found this video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zzPe2rZxSY&feature=rec-HM-fresh+div) on youtube.

One more year, G. Please one more year.

heyman25
03-28-2009, 05:38 AM
Nbadraft.net and Draft express both have G going top ten. His reluctance to answer signals most likely that G is gone. The real victim here is K.
Mark Heisler LA Times had him at 19, but he had Ed Davis at 4 or 5

heyman25
03-28-2009, 05:45 AM
Posters above have done a good job of identifying the pros and cons of the decision facing Gerald, so I'll just highlight a couple.

If G comes back, G will be THE leader of the team next year. Unquestioned, no doubt about it. It will be HIS team, not Kyle's or Jon's or anyone else's. The situation will force him to prove himself as a leader. G is unlikely to have that situation in the NBA, except it is possible that after years of improvement, if he does develop his skills to the level of someone like a Dwyane Wade, he has a shot at being the leader of an NBA team, like a Kobe or a LeBron. If he comes back, he will be the Kobe of Duke next year, both the most talented player AND the leader of the team. Career military officers will tell you that the most exhilarating time of their careers was as commanding officer of a unit, even at a relatively junior rank, and not when they were higher-ranking officers on the staff of some large command. There is no greater test of the mettle of a person than being a leader. K is especially attuned to this, and looks to develop leaders. The opportunity to, as the leader of a team, accomplish something great is an opportunity that is available to only a relatively few and may not come along more than once in a career.

On the opposite side, is the risk of a career-limiting or –ending injury. Think of Shaun Livingston. This is an even greater risk for G because he is a high-flyer at only 6’-4”. And there seems to be more thuggish play on the court than in years past, possibly a reflection of the increased thuggishness and classlessness of fans. A career-ending injury can also occur off the court, witness JWill. If G decides to stay and sustains an injury that affects his NBA career, he might be kicking himself for the decision for the rest of his life.
I forgot all about Shaun Livingston.He has to live with the decision he made to go pro.His body was definitely not NBA ready. It was a freakish injury,but may have never happened if he had spent a few years in College.

slower
03-28-2009, 07:27 AM
If G comes back, G will be THE leader of the team next year. Unquestioned, no doubt about it. It will be HIS team, not Kyle's or Jon's or anyone else's.


That's YOUR opinion, and you're certainly entitled to it. I wouldn't think that the dynamic between G, Jon and Kyle would be that much different. You make it sound like Jon and Kyle will (maybe in your opinion, should) act like deferential supporting players in G's world. Ain't gonna happen like that, bro.

Saratoga2
03-28-2009, 07:58 AM
Before Gerald, I would definitely pick Griffin, Evans, Lawson and Thabeet. There are typically 30 % of the high picks from outside the US and that number seems to be growing. That leaves a few picks for all of the rest of the Div I players to compete over. I don't think Gerald stands out that much against all the rest to be a lottery pick and he may not even make the first round. He can go in without an agent and see how he does.

DUKIE V(A)
03-28-2009, 08:30 AM
One thing is for sure...G has two great options...He has what would seem to be a difficult decision, but it seems like a win-win situation for him.

G is a tremendous talent and person...Does he have things he can improve on? Of course...and I am sure he, his family, and the coaching staff know exactly what he needs to do to get better in certain aspects of his game. Based on his play the second half of the season and his potential to continue to grow as a player, G would seem to be a lock first round pick and perhaps a lottery pick if he came out this year. This is a chance to make serious bank and fulfill a dream.

I think the larger questions are...How much does G value the opportunity to play his senior season? How much does he love college life? How valuable is it to him to play with his teammates? To go for a National Championship? To continue to learn to be a leader and even greater as THE MAN? To be ACC and/or National Player of the Year? To finish what he has helped start? To take the risk that he will be so great next season that #15 will hang in the CIS rafters?

G has certainly earned his right to go to the NBA and I will wish him nothing but the best if he chooses that route. He is a great player and it seems that he has only stratched the surface of what he will eventually become. I hope for our sake he chooses to come back and make memories that can't be topped.

Prediction: If G comes back, he will get his jersey hung. Priceless.

moonpie23
03-28-2009, 09:26 AM
there's a big difference in a collge player looking at the NBA as a CAREER, vs a LOTTERY TICKET.....


gerald is fortunate to have an excellent group of folks around him to help him make the right decision....either way, my son and i are big fans...

GH is gonna do well in LIFE. Period.. same goes for Greg P...

RelativeWays
03-28-2009, 09:41 AM
That's YOUR opinion, and you're certainly entitled to it. I wouldn't think that the dynamic between G, Jon and Kyle would be that much different. You make it sound like Jon and Kyle will (maybe in your opinion, should) act like deferential supporting players in G's world. Ain't gonna happen like that, bro.

It will be more of a situation like Laettner's or Battier's senior year. All the guys on those teams had input, but ultimately, the team ran through their senior leader. G will be the same way, though Sheyer will be a senior as well and most likely a co captain. There is little doubt that that the offense will want to focus on G's abilities first, Kyle's and Jon's second and whoever can step up as other option (hopefully Kelly or one of the Plumlees). I think G and Jon will ultimately dictate the pace of the team on court.

grossbus
03-28-2009, 09:45 AM
"He's had a brilliant career here at Duke"

brilliant? he certainly had a good season after a slow start, but i would find it hard to describe his entire (2 years!) career as brilliant.

Kedsy
03-28-2009, 10:32 AM
"He's had a brilliant career here at Duke"

brilliant? he certainly had a good season after a slow start, but i would find it hard to describe his entire (2 years!) career as brilliant.

Not to nitpick, but G has been here 3 years.

Ignatius07
03-28-2009, 10:52 AM
I forgot all about Shaun Livingston.He has to live with the decision he made to go pro.His body was definitely not NBA ready. It was a freakish injury,but may have never happened if he had spent a few years in College.

Or maybe he never would have bulked up in college (he certainly didn't gain much weight in the NBA) and would have suffered a catastrophic injury at Duke without having earned a paycheck yet.

OldSchool
03-28-2009, 11:58 AM
It will be more of a situation like Laettner's or Battier's senior year. All the guys on those teams had input, but ultimately, the team ran through their senior leader. G will be the same way, though Sheyer will be a senior as well and most likely a co captain. There is little doubt that that the offense will want to focus on G's abilities first, Kyle's and Jon's second and whoever can step up as other option (hopefully Kelly or one of the Plumlees). I think G and Jon will ultimately dictate the pace of the team on court.

Also reminds me of Johnny Dawkins' senior year. There were some great upperclass players on that team which played in the national title game, and David Henderson was a co-captain. But that was Johnny Dawkins' team, he was the leader. K seems to like to prod his best veteran player to become a leader. I don't see G browbeating some freshman for throwing a pass out of bounds because that doesn't appear to be his personality, he would develop his leadership skills within his own personality, for example leading by example and encouragement. Let's hope he comes back and we can find out.

GP3NY
03-28-2009, 12:01 PM
I think it would be stupid for G to not at least test the waters. I think he should do that and not hire an agent -- I mean really he doesnt need one he has so many connections already. I think that when the Carolina guys did that last year it made them better players for it - - it probably gives you a new perspective on your overall game. It is obvious that G has potential to be a great NBA player, but it is also obvious from the games like Villanova and UNC where he had good defenders on him that he is not yet at the peak of his game. I mean with a summer of working out he can develop the left handed drive and literally be unstoppable next year.

Of course, after he tests the waters he will come back to Duke then be a 2010 National Champion, 2010 MOP, ACC POY, Naismith POY, Wooden award winner, 2010 AA, jersey retired at Duke... and a top 10 draft pick guaranteed.

Indoor66
03-28-2009, 12:51 PM
I like Gerald as a nice college player. He is not skilled enough to play point at the next level; not a good enough shooter to play the shooting guard position at the next level. IMO he needs to develop his ball handling skills, shooting skills and court vision before he is ready to consider the pros. They play a far different game than Gerald brings to the court.

Devilsfan
03-28-2009, 12:59 PM
I hope he stays. I have enjoyed watching his stellar improvement this year. I think he is great on a one on one situation where he isn't double teamed or forced to go left.

gumbomoop
03-28-2009, 04:32 PM
Of course it's semi-selfish of me to hope G returns, but there's a perfectly good argument, with several elements to it, that says it's also in G's enlightened self-interest to return.

In several ways, his very good, but by no means "brilliant" game reminds me of Dahntay Jones. Powerful wing athletes, with G's shot developing into Kobe-like hang time and softness. His dunks and Kobe-like sweet jumper are brilliant, but not his overall game. No way. By time Dahntay left, he was a fierce defender, more consistent than G here at end of G's jr yr. The thing that the 2 have most in common, imo, is a weak handle. G, like DJ, is so strong that often he can bruise by his man for a dunk. And he's developing a cross-over, but it's wildly inconsistent, and sometimes leads to turnover, off his own knee.

It's taken Dahntay a few years, but he's found a role on a solid team, at maybe 15-18 minutes per game, perhaps more next year. I'd guess G might not make a big impact for a couple of years, for his game is incomplete. But I'd guess he could certainly be drafted this year in first round, maybe 15-20? Late lottery, maybe, but I'd be a little surprised.

Honestly, right now, there must be a few NBA scouts who have a lot more confidence is Ellington's sweet, and consistent, jumper, than G's overall game. They might both return, might both leave.

turnandburn55
03-28-2009, 04:52 PM
In several ways, his very good, but by no means "brilliant" game reminds me of Dahntay Jones. Powerful wing athletes, with G's shot developing into Kobe-like hang time and softness. His dunks and Kobe-like sweet jumper are brilliant, but not his overall game. No way. By time Dahntay left, he was a fierce defender, more consistent than G here at end of G's jr yr. The thing that the 2 have most in common, imo, is a weak handle. G, like DJ, is so strong that often he can bruise by his man for a dunk. And he's developing a cross-over, but it's wildly inconsistent, and sometimes leads to turnover, off his own knee.

Concur... I was thinking along similar lines. For G to really make an impact in the pro game, he's going to have to be able to really break down players off the dribble and explode to the basket with more frequency. The bottom line on Henderson is that he's a nice player with some athleticism (but not exceptional by NBA standards) who does a lot of things well but nothing really great.

I think the nightmare scenario for him is that he is drafted much too early with inflated expectations, and with a lack of overall polish, is never is able to establish himself among a glut of very similar players (see Avery, William).

I'm hard-pressed to remember many players who stayed an extra year and whose draft stock slid... on the other hand, you have to wonder where, say Carlos Boozer or Corey Maggette are drafted after one more year??

Random thoughts, entirely...

grossbus
03-28-2009, 04:57 PM
"Not to nitpick, but G has been here 3 years."

yeah, my bad.

quick, but not accurate fingers.

CDu
03-28-2009, 05:00 PM
I'm hard-pressed to remember many players who stayed an extra year and whose draft stock slid... on the other hand, you have to wonder where, say Carlos Boozer or Corey Maggette are drafted after one more year??

I can think of a number of players whose stock slid by staying too long, including: Josh McRoberts, Roy Hibbert, and Terrence Morris. That's just off the top of my head.

It can work both ways. For guys who are going to be drafted high based on potential, sticking around will hurt their stock. For guys who lack "upside", sticking around may improve their stock or have no effect.

FireOgilvie
03-28-2009, 05:07 PM
I can think of a number of players whose stock slid by staying too long, including: Josh McRoberts, Roy Hibbert, and Terrence Morris. That's just off the top of my head.

It can work both ways. For guys who are going to be drafted high based on potential, sticking around will hurt their stock. For guys who lack "upside", sticking around may improve their stock or have no effect.

Another guy is Joakim Noah. He was a prospective number 1 pick and then slid down to 9th. However, he stayed and won another championship at Florida...

turnandburn55
03-28-2009, 06:37 PM
I can think of a number of players whose stock slid by staying too long, including: Josh McRoberts, Roy Hibbert, and Terrence Morris. That's just off the top of my head.

It can work both ways. For guys who are going to be drafted high based on potential, sticking around will hurt their stock. For guys who lack "upside", sticking around may improve their stock or have no effect.

Morris and McRoberts were the first that came to mind... Chris Porter of Auburn as well.

I would submit that the guys who are most likely to see their draft stock sink are probably those who are unknown quantities or have had a single breakout season-- very likely to have their weaknesses exposed by another season of college bball.

I'd say Henderson is probably in no-man's land here... he's a known quantity as a 3rd year starter on a high-profile team but also with enough rough edges to actually benefit from another year.

Again, random thoughts for thought. Obviously I'd rather he stay and not go...

Diddy
03-28-2009, 08:33 PM
Ellington? Really?

Yes, he has a consistent Jumper. He along with Danny Green, also saw their numbers flatline when they weren't playing alongside the PG who is, by a wide margin, the best traditional PG in college hoops.

If Ellington wants to know what his NBA career will look like, he needs to look at one JJ Reddick.

Ellington is a consistent shooter. He is also a middling athlete. Basically, he is JJ Reddick with less range and slightly more athleticism. Like JJ, he will have trouble getting off that shot in the pros. He will have an easier time getting a shot than JJ, but he won't hit as many either.

And Gerald has ELITE athleticism. He can run and jump like very few people. He needs to go left more, and could stand more range on his jumper, but no one is PERFECT in the NBA.

In private workouts, Gerald will have NBA scouts drooling. With a pass first PG and a legitimate post to occupy defenders, he will be huge, eventually. Will he dominate from Day 1? No. Nor did Kobe, Bron, or D-Wade (who had a few college years under his belt).

D-Wade is actually a great model for Hendo. Similiar size and game, with Hendo being more explosive and D-Wade being more skilled. Only Hendo can learn skills, and he already plays better D and rebounds better.

I want him to stay. And that last game did him no favors. It also may be forgotten as soon as he sticks his elbow down the rim in a workout.

Please stay, but Hendo has earned his shot at the pros.

CDu
03-28-2009, 08:41 PM
Ellington? Really?

Yes, he has a consistent Jumper. He along with Danny Green, also saw their numbers flatline when they weren't playing alongside the PG who is, by a wide margin, the best traditional PG in college hoops.

You might want to check your facts. Actually, Ellington's numbers got substantially BETTER in the three games without Lawson. He had 16 against VT, 24 against FSU, and 25 against Radford, while shooting 25-43 from the field.

But otherwise, I mostly agree. Ellington isn't the NBA prospect that Henderson is. I'm not as convinced that Henderson will be a star though. His lack of size will present a problem, as will his difficulties with ballhandling (though hopefully that will improve). He's a top-tier athlete without question, but he's not going to be able to out athlete people in the NBA.

BobbyFan
03-28-2009, 09:26 PM
D-Wade is actually a great model for Hendo. Similiar size and game, with Hendo being more explosive and D-Wade being more skilled. Only Hendo can learn skills, and he already plays better D and rebounds better.

Based on this, Gerald should be taken #1. I have no idea why you think Gerald rebounds or plays better D than Wade right now. Wade was better than Gerald in college, and since then his career has taken off to the point that he is playing at a historically great level. It's not fair to make this comparison at all.

G is a good NBA prospect, but I don't see stardom in his future. He is a terrific athlete and his defense has improved and become a strength. But offensively, he isn't multidimensional enough. He needs to continue improving on his passing and, for a guard, he is not a good ball handler. Also, though a great leaper and strong, he isn't particularly quick at changing directions.

I think he will wind up being a solid NBA starter/6th man who puts up 10-14 ppg, which is in line with being a mid to late lottery pick.

CDu
03-28-2009, 09:40 PM
D-Wade is actually a great model for Hendo. Similiar size and game, with Hendo being more explosive and D-Wade being more skilled. Only Hendo can learn skills, and he already plays better D and rebounds better.

I'm guessing you didn't see Wade play in college. If you did, I have trouble seeing how you could conclude that there's anything Henderson does discernably better than Wade did in college. Wade was a better rebounder, better scorer, better ballhandler, stronger, and a better passer. They were similar defensively, and similar as shooters. Henderson MAY be a better leaper, but leaping loses a lot of its value without the other gifts.

Wade is the absolute best-case scenario for Henderson, but Henderson is a far cry from that level. No offense intended to Henderson, but Wade was simply a ridiculous player in college (and now in the NBA). Henderson had a really nice stretch of about 15 games or so. But Wade put up performances like Henderson's (and better) for two full years.

CDu
03-28-2009, 09:42 PM
Based on this, Gerald should be taken #1. I have no idea why you think Gerald rebounds or plays better D than Wade right now. Wade was better than Gerald in college, and since then his career has taken off to the point that he is playing at a historically great level. It's not fair to make this comparison at all.

G is a good NBA prospect, but I don't see stardom in his future. He is a terrific athlete and his defense has improved and become a strength. But offensively, he isn't multidimensional enough. He needs to continue improving on his passing and, for a guard, he is not a good ball handler. Also, though a great leaper and strong, he isn't particularly quick at changing directions.

I think he will wind up being a solid NBA starter/6th man who puts up 10-14 ppg, which is in line with being a mid to late lottery pick.

Sorry for saying basically the same thing immediately following you, but I agree with your assessment. Comparing Henderson to Wade isn't fair to Henderson.

Kedsy
03-28-2009, 09:57 PM
... on the other hand, you have to wonder where, say Carlos Boozer or Corey Maggette are drafted after one more year??


They both ended up doing OK for themselves.

Kedsy
03-28-2009, 10:17 PM
In private workouts, Gerald will have NBA scouts drooling. With a pass first PG and a legitimate post to occupy defenders, he will be huge, eventually. Will he dominate from Day 1? No. Nor did Kobe, Bron, or D-Wade (who had a few college years under his belt).


As others have said, G and Wade have completely different types of game. The issue with Kobe and Lebron is that they are 2 or 3 inches taller than G which makes a huge difference. His NBA ceiling is not nearly as high as theirs due to that height difference (and possibly other things as well).

A player who G reminds me of in some ways is Jeff Trepagnier, who played at USC from 1997 to 2001. In his junior year, Trepagnier, who was a remarkable athlete, scored 15.9 ppg, with 6.6 rebs per game and 2.1 assists, 3.1 steals and 1.4 blocks, numbers which compare favorably with Gerald's this year. His senior year he had injury issues and was suspended for some period of time for a recruting violation or some such, but he finished the year strong. He was drafted in the 2nd round by Cleveland.

According to Wikipedia: "At 6'4", Trepagnier was considered by some scouts to be undersized for the NBA shooting guard position, his natural spot. In three seasons for the Cavaliers and the Denver Nuggets, Trepagnier averaged 2.8 points per game."

Because of his height and inability to play point in the pros, unless G improves from where he is, his wiki page is in danger of looking like Trepagnier's. Whether this suggests he should go out now and get picked in the middle of the first round -- so he can at least collect one large, guaranteed contract -- or whether it suggests he should stay another year and improve his game beyond Trepagnier's (if he can) is difficult to say.

Saratoga2
03-28-2009, 10:39 PM
As others have said, G and Wade have completely different types of game. The issue with Kobe and Lebron is that they are 2 or 3 inches taller than G which makes a huge difference. His NBA ceiling is not nearly as high as theirs due to that height difference (and possibly other things as well).

A player who G reminds me of in some ways is Jeff Trepagnier, who played at USC from 1997 to 2001. In his junior year, Trepagnier, who was a remarkable athlete, scored 15.9 ppg, with 6.6 rebs per game and 2.1 assists, 3.1 steals and 1.4 blocks, numbers which compare favorably with Gerald's this year. His senior year he had injury issues and was suspended for some period of time for a recruting violation or some such, but he finished the year strong. He was drafted in the 2nd round by Cleveland.

According to Wikipedia: "At 6'4", Trepagnier was considered by some scouts to be undersized for the NBA shooting guard position, his natural spot. In three seasons for the Cavaliers and the Denver Nuggets, Trepagnier averaged 2.8 points per game."

Because of his height and inability to play point in the pros, unless G improves from where he is, his wiki page is in danger of looking like Trepagnier's. Whether this suggests he should go out now and get picked in the middle of the first round -- so he can at least collect one large, guaranteed contract -- or whether it suggests he should stay another year and improve his game beyond Trepagnier's (if he can) is difficult to say.

I think Henderson is a shade under 6'4" in stocking feet and isn't freakishly long. He would be 4 inches shorter than LeBron and 3 inches shorter than Kobe. Lebron is pushing 270 pounds by his own estimate which Kobe has a finer build. Both handle the ball better than Gerald, but one would suppose that he could improve that in the NBA.

I listed 4 college players in an earlier response, who I feel would be drafted into the NBA ahead of Gerald. After watching the Pitt/Villanova game, I can see 3 others who are more NBA ready. Blair and Young of Pitt and Cunningham of Villanova. If you look at all the major teams, it is likely that there are many others who can compete for positions.

I see the smartest approach for Henderson, if he is truly undecided, is to go to the camp but don't sign with an agent. Maybe his athletic skills will be highly valued, however, his downsides, which others have mentioned in this thread may push him down in the first round or even into the second.

OldSchool
03-28-2009, 10:42 PM
Wade is the absolute best-case scenario for Henderson, but Henderson is a far cry from that level.

I agree with this and I agree with Diddy. I think if G fully develops his skills, Wade is the paradigm for the kind of the player he might eventually be.

One thing I would point out is that G has developed very slowly as a basketball player, much more slowly than Wade, and for that reason I think it would be a mistake to say that we know what his ceiling is yet.

Anyone who is a scratch golfer has ridiculously good hand-eye coordination. And we have seen that G is already a ridiculous athlete.

There is no reason that someone with G's coordination can't develop into an ankle-breaker handling the ball. But he is nowhere, nowhere near that today.

Also his shot has improved greatly from his freshman year, but looking at the mechanics on his shot I don't think he is near what he is capable of. I love the height he gets on his shot and his followthrough. I think he can ultimately be a better shooter than D-Wade.

And maybe what he still lacks most is court vision and creating opportunities for other players on the floor. He needs to develop into the kind of player that if you double team him, he will burn you with the open man. And he could do so much more than just drive and kick.

So yes, he has a long way to go. But he's building himself very slowly, and I don't think we yet know what his ceiling is.

Diddy
03-29-2009, 01:58 AM
Yes, Wade had better numbers that G in college. Who were his teammates again?

What would G's numbers have looked like this year if he were allowed to ignore the team concept a la Wade during his last years in College.

And, please, ignore your perfect hindsight. Wade's draft was the Bron/Melo (and Darko. Freaking Darko) love fest. Wade was a complete after thought. Looking back, we realize how good he is. But he wasn't always. It took him a few years to adapt in the league.

And really, most of his hype and rep still stem from one of the best playoff runs a player has ever had. His finals performance was a thing of beauty. Since then he has put up good numbers on a really bad team. When he wasn't hurt.

Wade still isn't a great three point threat.

Are you all saying that in two to three years there is no way G can be that good?

This past year, towards the end, teams keyed on Gerald in way that will never happen in the pros. Teams basically left E-will alone and completely ignored whatever post we had in. Whenever G touched the ball 2-3 gus went on high alert and all shifted to take away driving lanes.

In the pros, if you try that, the other guys will eat you alive.

We all know about Duke's big three. If we are honest, it was the ONLY three. No one else on our team was dangerous. Nolan was capable, but so inconsistent that it was worth the risk.

Jon and Kyle, skilled, tenacious, and intetelligent though they were, could be effectively guarded by a single defender. Not shut down mind you, but one guy on an island could keep them from going off.

Not so with Gerald. His defender always got help from Mid January on.

And G did it with no Big to draw attention or sheild off a post Defender. He did it with no PG to orchestrate the O or set him up. With Lawson for a PG, G would have had 25 plus a game and been the most dangerous player in the ACC.

I stand by the Wade thing. Similiar bodies, similiar games. Sure, G needs refinement. If he was close to Wade now, we would still be playing. If he had some help. But I maintain that he was close to where Wade was when he finished his college career, and with the same level of work that Wade put in G can reach that level.

This paper thin, and patently obvious and self serving, attempt to denigrate G's abilities to keep him at Duke is just sad.

FireOgilvie
03-29-2009, 02:29 AM
Yes, Wade had better numbers that G in college. Who were his teammates again?

What would G's numbers have looked like this year if he were allowed to ignore the team concept a la Wade during his last years in College.

And, please, ignore your perfect hindsight. Wade's draft was the Bron/Melo (and Darko. Freaking Darko) love fest. Wade was a complete after thought. Looking back, we realize how good he is. But he wasn't always. It took him a few years to adapt in the league.

And really, most of his hype and rep still stem from one of the best playoff runs a player has ever had. His finals performance was a thing of beauty. Since then he has put up good numbers on a really bad team. When he wasn't hurt.

Wade still isn't a great three point threat.

Are you all saying that in two to three years there is no way G can be that good?

This past year, towards the end, teams keyed on Gerald in way that will never happen in the pros. Teams basically left E-will alone and completely ignored whatever post we had in. Whenever G touched the ball 2-3 gus went on high alert and all shifted to take away driving lanes.

In the pros, if you try that, the other guys will eat you alive.

We all know about Duke's big three. If we are honest, it was the ONLY three. No one else on our team was dangerous. Nolan was capable, but so inconsistent that it was worth the risk.

Jon and Kyle, skilled, tenacious, and intetelligent though they were, could be effectively guarded by a single defender. Not shut down mind you, but one guy on an island could keep them from going off.

Not so with Gerald. His defender always got help from Mid January on.

And G did it with no Big to draw attention or sheild off a post Defender. He did it with no PG to orchestrate the O or set him up. With Lawson for a PG, G would have had 25 plus a game and been the most dangerous player in the ACC.

I stand by the Wade thing. Similiar bodies, similiar games. Sure, G needs refinement. If he was close to Wade now, we would still be playing. If he had some help. But I maintain that he was close to where Wade was when he finished his college career, and with the same level of work that Wade put in G can reach that level.

This paper thin, and patently obvious and self serving, attempt to denigrate G's abilities to keep him at Duke is just sad.

First, Wade never "ignored the team concept."

Here is some background info about Dwyane Wade.

He led his Marquette team, which you bashed, to the Final Four. There were FOUR guys on that team that averaged double figure scoring. On the way to the Final Four, Wade dropped 29 pts, 11 reb, and 11 assists against #1 seeded Kentucky... that was the 3rd triple-double in NCAA Tournament history. Wade averaged 21.6 pts, 6.4 reb, 4.6 assists, and 2.1 steals per game on a Final Four basketball team. He also blocked 51 shots on the year (insane number for a 6'4" guard).

In his first year in the NBA, Wade averaged 16 pts, 4 reb, and 4.5 assists per game... really impressive. In his second year, an amazing 24 points, 5.2 reb, and 6.8 assists... so he definitely didn't take a "few years to adapt to the league."

D-Wade is no slouch.

And no, Gerald is nowhere near where Dwyane Wade was when he ended his career. Maybe if G comes back next year, he can have a similar season to what Dwyane did.

davekay1971
03-29-2009, 07:17 AM
If I were G, I'd declare, not hire an agent, and get a very real assessment of, not only where I stood in the draft, but also what pro scouts would like to see improved upon if I were to go back to college another year. Whether or not to return is an important career decision for him, and I'm sure he'll get good advice about what to do.

I hope he comes back. Despite the critiquing that's been done about his game (and yes, as a junior in college his game is not perfect), I absolutely love watching the guy play in a Duke uniform. He's a phenomenal athlete. Every game, you can rely on him making breathtaking plays, whether a powerful rebound, a nasty block, or an explosive throw-down dunk. He's improved remarkably from last year to this, and I would love to see how his game improves next year as well. Finally, like the rest of our guys, he carries himself with class. He's a guy you can always be proud to have represent your school.

slower
03-29-2009, 07:48 AM
First, Wade never "ignored the team concept."

Here is some background info about Dwyane Wade.

He led his Marquette team, which you bashed, to the Final Four. There were FOUR guys on that team that averaged double figure scoring. On the way to the Final Four, Wade dropped 29 pts, 11 reb, and 11 assists against #1 seeded Kentucky... that was the 3rd triple-double in NCAA Tournament history. Wade averaged 21.6 pts, 6.4 reb, 4.6 assists, and 2.1 steals per game on a Final Four basketball team. He also blocked 51 shots on the year (insane number for a 6'4" guard).

In his first year in the NBA, Wade averaged 16 pts, 4 reb, and 4.5 assists per game... really impressive. In his second year, an amazing 24 points, 5.2 reb, and 6.8 assists... so he definitely didn't take a "few years to adapt to the league."

D-Wade is no slouch.

And no, Gerald is nowhere near where Dwyane Wade was when he ended his career. Maybe if G comes back next year, he can have a similar season to what Dwyane did.

and amen. Look, I like G's game, but don't start putting him in the same sentence with DWade and (are you FREAKING serious?) Kobe and Lebron. Not yet, at least.

BobbyFan
03-29-2009, 09:30 AM
Honestly, I can't tell if you are being serious or not. But I will respond anyway to some points:


And, please, ignore your perfect hindsight. Wade's draft was the Bron/Melo (and Darko. Freaking Darko) love fest. Wade was a complete after thought. Looking back, we realize how good he is. But he wasn't always. It took him a few years to adapt in the league.

Wade was taken 5th in the draft, with three of the players before him being considered great prospects, any of whom would be the #1 pick this year. Yes, he has exceeded expectations, but he didn't come out of nowhere. And most players take a few years to adapt, so I'm not sure what your point is.


This past year, towards the end, teams keyed on Gerald in way that will never happen in the pros. Teams basically left E-will alone and completely ignored whatever post we had in. Whenever G touched the ball 2-3 gus went on high alert and all shifted to take away driving lanes.

So what kind of defenses do you think Wade, who was apparently selfish and played with poor quality teammates in college, faced? They made him struggle so much that he shot above 50% from the field his last year.


With Lawson for a PG, G would have had 25 plus a game and been the most dangerous player in the ACC.

No he wouldn't.


But I maintain that he was close to where Wade was when he finished his college career, and with the same level of work that Wade put in G can reach that level.

How can you make this claim what it's obvious you didn't watch Wade in college? It's not just work that put Wade where he is today. Hard work is the easy part.

Your problem is you are making basic errors in logic. You can't assume that if two players start at the same point (which Wade and G didn't), then the career trajectory of the second player will equal that of the first. Should we expect all tweener guards who can dribble and shoot but are not great collegians, to be only "hard work" away from being the next Gilbert Arenas? Why aren't you picking Dahntay Jones, who is a much more valid comparison for G?

Troublemaker
03-29-2009, 09:57 AM
I agree with others. G isn't even close to the talent that Wade is and was coming out of college. Besides the already mentioned fact that Wade did everything better than G as far as basketball skills, even the physical talent doesn't compare. They're both 6'4" with great jumping ability, but that's it. End of similarities. Wade is one of the quickest human beings ever to play in the NBA. G doesn't have his lateral explosiveness / first-step quickness. Nobody could stop Wade from driving in college (and not even now in the NBA). Danny Green stopped G cold. Even if G maxes out his potential, he won't be nearly as good as Wade, one of the top 3 players in the world. They're not anything alike except on the surface -- 6'4" with good hops.

CDu
03-29-2009, 10:43 AM
Yes, Wade had better numbers that G in college. Who were his teammates again?

What would G's numbers have looked like this year if he were allowed to ignore the team concept a la Wade during his last years in College.

Wade played on a very good Marquette team that had Travis Diener (NBA player), Steve Novak (NBA player) and other solid contributors. Wade was clearly the best player, and Henderson's teammates may be better, but Wade's team wasn't chopped liver. Also, your argument falls flat because you're ignoring the fact that Wade was a better PASSER than Henderson. Wade average 4 assists and had a good A/TO ratio. If he so disregarded the team concept (and his teammates just stunk), he wouldn't have put up those numbers.


And, please, ignore your perfect hindsight. Wade's draft was the Bron/Melo (and Darko. Freaking Darko) love fest. Wade was a complete after thought. Looking back, we realize how good he is. But he wasn't always. It took him a few years to adapt in the league.

Check your facts. Actually, he was one of the best rookies in the league as a rookie (16ppg, 4.5 apg, 4 rpg), and was a superstar in his second year. He was the fifth player taken in a draft with 3 givens at the top. But he was not an afterthought. People knew he'd be good - apparently you didn't.


Wade still isn't a great three point threat.

Neither is Henderson, so I'm not sure of your point. And Wade was better at getting to the rim than Henderson, because he's a better ballhandler. Wade was considered a combo guard - perhaps undersized to play SG but capable of playing PG in the NBA. I don't think anyone is saying the same of Henderson right now.


Are you all saying that in two to three years there is no way G can be that good?

I'm not saying that at all - never was. I'm just disagreeing with your assessment that Henderson and Wade have similar games right now. Wade was much stronger and a much better ballhandler (making him better at getting to the rim), a MUCH better passer, a better rebounder, and as good a shooter and defender. You seem to think Henderson is a better rebounder than Wade (which is innacurate) and you seem to be discounting how much better Wade's all-around game was than Henderson's is.

Henderson COULD get to Wade's level eventually, but to EXPECT Henderson to get to Wade's level is unfair to Henderson. Wade was much further along coming out of college, and has been a revelation in the pros (even great college players don't usually turn out that good in the pros. If Henderson vastly improves as a ballhandler and distributor, he might be able to turn into a Wade-like player. But there's a big difference in the two right now.


I stand by the Wade thing. Similiar bodies, similiar games. Sure, G needs refinement. If he was close to Wade now, we would still be playing. If he had some help. But I maintain that he was close to where Wade was when he finished his college career, and with the same level of work that Wade put in G can reach that level.

Again, I disagree with your last sentence. Wade was much more prepared to play lead guard in the NBA than Henderson is. They have similar leaping ability (perhaps an edge even to Henderson there) and similar shooting skills. But Wade was much better at handling the ball, much better at passing and court vision, and better at rebounding (though it's close here).

The problem is that the areas in which Henderson is comparable right now (athleticism, shooting, rebounding) are not the areas that have made Wade a star. It's his ability to handle the ball and be a true lead guard and playmaker for himself and others (along with the athleticism) that have made him a star. Henderson has a lot of work to catch up to where Wade was coming out of college. And again, that's not an insult to Henderson. Wade was an All-American and other-wordly talent.


This paper thin, and patently obvious and self serving, attempt to denigrate G's abilities to keep him at Duke is just sad.

This is a ridiculous statement. Why would an attempt to denigrate Henderson's abilities on a message board have ANY positive affect on keeping him? That's absurd. NBA scouts aren't going to say, "well, the DBR folks think he's not ready, so we shouldn't draft him." Nor is Henderson going to say "well the fans think I'm not ready, so I should stay." If you think that we have an affect on NBA draft, you're sorely mistaken. And if you think I think that, then I'm insulted.

I realize that this could be mistaken for bashing Henderson's game. That couldn't be further from the truth. You clearly don't understand how good Wade was overall coming out of college. I'm not in any way attempting to denigrate Henderson, who is obviously a tremendous talent. I'm just trying to provide you a realistic view of where Henderson is in comparison to Wade.

Henderson has a lot of work in the area of ballhandling/passing to reach Wade's status. That may not keep him from being a top-10 pick, though. And if he's a top-10 pick, it may be the right decision to go now and try to learn at the NBA level. If he's not a top-10 pick, who knows? But whether he chooses to learn at the college or NBA level, he's got a ways to go as a ballhandler to be in Wade's class.

tysi1521
03-29-2009, 11:48 AM
The fact that we are even comparing Henderson to D-Wade is a great compliment to him. There is nothing insulting saying that he might not be ready yet and isn't as good as Dwayne Wade. I mean, who really is as good as Wade? Lebron. Kobe? And the list ends there.

Edouble
03-29-2009, 01:10 PM
Wade was taken with the 5th pick in what was one of the greatest drafts of the last 30 years.

We're debating if Hendo can slide into the late lottery in this year's draft, which is going to be weaker than next year's.

I am pretty much in agreement with CDu's excellent post regarding the comparison between the two players. Wade certainly did not come out of nowhere his last season at Marquette. He was a household name among college hoops fans, and he looked absolutely super-human in his triple double performance in the regional finals. People knew he was going to be really good in the league.

I'm also floored at the suggestion that it took a few years for Wade to catch on in the pros. It's just not true. From day one, the 2003-04 season was billed as the LeBron vs. 'Melo Rookie of the Year battle. The fact that Wade actually made noise as a first year player, and had some NBA "experts" (Chuck, a few SC guys) saying that Wade should take home the honor was pretty remarkable.

Zeke
03-29-2009, 04:38 PM
IMO GH has gotten as much out of college BB as he can. Any improvement will come from "the next level". If he stays it will be charity for Duke, not for his improvement.

Lord Ash
03-29-2009, 04:51 PM
I just wish Gerald, and John Wall, would decide already; I've got Ryan and Mason already created in my video game basketball game and need to know what to do about these two!

:)

missfinch
03-29-2009, 04:57 PM
Great Laettner article linked on the DBR homepage, where he talks about the first championship being the best moment of his entire career (NBA and Dream Team included), and the memories he shares with former teammates of playing for the best coach at the best school outweighing all else.

Can someone please drop a copy at Gerald's door?

CDu
03-29-2009, 05:29 PM
IMO GH has gotten as much out of college BB as he can. Any improvement will come from "the next level". If he stays it will be charity for Duke, not for his improvement.

I disagree with this. I think he's gotten enough out of college to probably go pro. But I think his last several games illustrate that he could get more from college. His ball handling and passing still have a lot of work. Here's the line from the UNC game on (last seven games):

32.7% fg%, 29.2% 3pt%, 15.7ppg, 4.7rpg, 2.6apg, 2.4topg (1.06 a/to)

Those aren't the numbers of a guy who has nothing left to learn in college, and the primary reason is the ballhandling limitations.

Now, that doesn't mean he isn't already a fantastic college player, and it doesn't mean he's not a good pro prospect right now. It's certainly possible that he can develop that at the next level, and it's probable that those limitations won't keep him from being a lottery pick. But that doesn't mean that he's gotten all he can from the college game.

Troublemaker
03-29-2009, 06:10 PM
I think maybe some of Duke's recent teams have been so starved for it that our fans now tend to overrate anyone with good athleticism. It's not just Gerald; I remember a few preseason whispers about Nolan leaving for the NBA after the season.

I watch about 3 NBA games a week and I'm telling you, Gerald's overall athleticism (not just hops, but also quickness and anything else you consider "athletic") is not special in that league. I 100% agree with the posters that say he's going to have to build up his ball-handling and shooting ability to make an impact at that level. And to anyone that thinks he's going to be an All-Star or as good as Wade, well, prepare to be surprised, imo.

Of course, this doesn't mean he needs to return to college for another year or anything. He can make these ball-handling and shooting improvements at the next level and become a valuable starter or role player. I expect him to go because it's a weak draft, and I would obviously wish him well and be grateful to him for delivering a lot of memorable moments over the past three years.

I just think the expectations for him at the next level are very, VERY out of whack right now. And it's going to end up being unfair to him when/if he doesn't live up to them.

Not every player with great hops is going to be Kobe or Wade. And not every player with a modicum of athleticism on our roster is a threat to leave for the NBA. Athleticism is great, but it's not THAT rare. Again, maybe we just haven't seen enough at Duke recently, so we've lost concept of what truly outstanding athleticism is. If only some of you had seen Grant Hill play college basketball. Your head might explode.

Troublemaker
03-29-2009, 06:27 PM
While I'm here, I just wanted to say that when Gerald announces his decision, I expect the members of this board to be supportive of him no matter what he decides to do. I'm going to have pretty low tolerance for any poster that lashes out at him if he decides to make the leap to the NBA (and I have the power to ban!). There's nothing that screams "I need more hobbies and need to grow up" than a so-called "fan" expressing bitterness towards a college student who decides he's ready to get a job. So be forewarned. I just hope that I've really underestimated this board and have insulted you guys by thinking that I had to even post this warning.

Ian
03-29-2009, 06:42 PM
If Gerald is projected to be a lottery pick I really can't blame him for deciding to jump.

Having said that, those who compare him to Dwayne Wade (when Wade declared) are seriously deluded. He's not close to that caliber yet.

FireOgilvie
03-29-2009, 06:48 PM
When is the deadline for underclassmen to declare? It could be weeks before we know whether or not Henderson is leaving... many painful weeks.

Oh, and Wade's name is actually D-W-Y-A-N-E. Dwyane Wade. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dwyane_Wade)

Maxwell1977
03-29-2009, 06:56 PM
I think maybe some of Duke's recent teams have been so starved for it that our fans now tend to overrate anyone with good athleticism. It's not just Gerald; I remember a few preseason whispers about Nolan leaving for the NBA after the season.

I watch about 3 NBA games a week and I'm telling you, Gerald's overall athleticism (not just hops, but also quickness and anything else you consider "athletic") is not special in that league. I 100% agree with the posters that say he's going to have to build up his ball-handling and shooting ability to make an impact at that level. And to anyone that thinks he's going to be an All-Star or as good as Wade, well, prepare to be surprised, imo.

Of course, this doesn't mean he needs to return to college for another year or anything. He can make these ball-handling and shooting improvements at the next level and become a valuable starter or role player. I expect him to go because it's a weak draft, and I would obviously wish him well and be grateful to him for delivering a lot of memorable moments over the past three years.

I just think the expectations for him at the next level are very, VERY out of whack right now. And it's going to end up being unfair to him when/if he doesn't live up to them.

Not every player with great hops is going to be Kobe or Wade. And not every player with a modicum of athleticism on our roster is a threat to leave for the NBA. Athleticism is great, but it's not THAT rare. Again, maybe we just haven't seen enough at Duke recently, so we've lost concept of what truly outstanding athleticism is. If only some of you had seen Grant Hill play college basketball. Your head might explode.

Really. Wasn't G's break-out game @FSU on 1.10.2009? He hasn't been Super-G very long. The G of the 1st two years would not play in the NBA.

CDu
03-29-2009, 07:03 PM
I completely agree with Troublemaker's last two posts. Henderson isn't close to being an impact player in the pros right now. That doesn't necessarily mean that going pro this year is the wrong decision for him. If he goes, I'll wish him the best. If he stays, I'll be very happy we get to see him for one more year.

NashvilleDevil
03-29-2009, 07:14 PM
If only some of you had seen Grant Hill play college basketball. Your head might explode.

He is one of my favorites. I remember meeting him before the '93 season in CIS and he was extremely nice and patient with my brother and I. One of my all time favorite moments as a kid was meeting him.

I just watched some youtube videos of him at Duke and I think some people forget how special he was. I am also reminded of how great Duke's uniforms were before Nike started messing with them after he left. Please of please bring back the classic Duke look, with the dark blue away jerseys those were sharp.

CDu
03-29-2009, 07:51 PM
When is the deadline for underclassmen to declare? It could be weeks before we know whether or not Henderson is leaving... many painful weeks.

Oh, and Wade's name is actually D-W-Y-A-N-E. Dwyane Wade. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dwyane_Wade)

I believe that April 30 is the deadline to declare. There is a subsequent deadline to pull your name out, which I do not know.

turnandburn55
03-29-2009, 07:52 PM
Athleticism is great, but it's not THAT rare. Again, maybe we just haven't seen enough at Duke recently, so we've lost concept of what truly outstanding athleticism is. If only some of you had seen Grant Hill play college basketball. Your head might explode.

Or Jason Williams, for that matter. You want to talk explosiveness off the dribble, it was terrifying to watch him at Cameron.

I'm not trying to put G-man down when I say he has a ways to go before he's NBA-star caliber. But I think we're doing him a disservice by comparing him to guys who are/were truly elite...

Franzez
03-29-2009, 08:16 PM
I'm not convinced we aren't the preseason #2 with Henderson & Singler returning.

Of course preseason rankings don't matter but we are a legit National Championship contendor with our returning team gaining experience and with our incoming recruits.

CDu
03-29-2009, 08:20 PM
I'm not convinced we aren't the preseason #2 with Henderson & Singler returning.

Of course preseason rankings don't matter but we are a legit National Championship contendor with our returning team gaining experience and with our incoming recruits.

Who is the preseason #1 in that scenario in your opinion? I'm struggling to find an elite team this year that won't take a big hit next year.

Franzez
03-29-2009, 08:25 PM
Who is the preseason #1 in that scenario in your opinion? I'm struggling to find an elite team this year that won't take a big hit next year.
Memphis.

#1 Recruiting Class in the country
John Wall(#1 HS Recruit)
DeMarcus Cousins
Xavier Henry
Nolan Dennis
Darnell Dodson(#1 JC Recruit)
Will Coleman
Another recruit(Possibly Latavious Williams)

Also former 2008 top recruit Angel Garcia becomes eligible next season.

Possibly Kansas if Collins & Aldrich return with the addition of Lance Stephenson and returning every key player.

CDu
03-29-2009, 08:30 PM
Memphis.

#1 Recruiting Class in the country
John Wall(#1 HS Recruit)
DeMarcus Cousins
Xavier Henry
Nolan Dennis
Darnell Dodson(#1 JC Recruit)
Will Coleman
Another recruit(Possibly Latavious Williams)

Also former 2008 top recruit Angel Garcia becomes eligible next season.

Possibly Kansas if Collins & Aldrich return with the addition of Lance Stephenson and returning every key player.

Ah I see you've penciled in Wall. And what if we get him? Memphis has a nice recruiting class without Wall, but they'll lose Dozier, Anderson, and (most likely) Evans. They'll be depending on a lot of new faces.

Franzez
03-29-2009, 09:14 PM
Ah I see you've penciled in Wall. And what if we get him? Memphis has a nice recruiting class without Wall, but they'll lose Dozier, Anderson, and (most likely) Evans. They'll be depending on a lot of new faces.
We're not going to get him.
I'm surprised there are people who are still holding out hopes for him.

Trust me if there were a legit chance Wall comes to Duke I'd be on the bandwagon.

Memphis will be depending on some new faces but this current class is possibly the 2nd greatest recruiting class of All-Time on paper right behind Michigan's Fab 5.

They lose Evans,Anderson,& Dozier but both Sallie & Taggart were key players that they might return.

CDu
03-29-2009, 09:27 PM
We're not going to get him.
I'm surprised there are people who are still holding out hopes for him.

Trust me if there were a legit chance Wall comes to Duke I'd be on the bandwagon.

Memphis will be depending on some new faces but this current class is possibly the 2nd greatest recruiting class of All-Time on paper right behind Michigan's Fab 5.

They lose Evans,Anderson,& Dozier but both Sallie & Taggart were key players that they might return.

Sallie was not a key player. He had one monstrous game to bail them out in the first round. But that one game accounted for almost 20% of his season scoring total.

I'm not saying we are likely to get Wall. But until he signs on the dotted line, I'm not going to say he's on any particular team. Stranger things have happened. He just visited with Coach K recently for the first time, so that's progress in my opinion. I agree that it's an uphill climb though.

I'm also not ready to christen that class as the second-greatest class ever. Remember - we had a pretty good class or two ourselves over the years (1997-1998 and 1999-2000, for example). They have two top-10 recruits (three if they get Wall) and a couple of okay players. They'll be good, but that's a LOT of reliance on newcomers.

Newton_14
03-29-2009, 10:10 PM
We're not going to get him.
I'm surprised there are people who are still holding out hopes for him.

Trust me if there were a legit chance Wall comes to Duke I'd be on the bandwagon.

Memphis will be depending on some new faces but this current class is possibly the 2nd greatest recruiting class of All-Time on paper right behind Michigan's Fab 5.

They lose Evans,Anderson,& Dozier but both Sallie & Taggart were key players that they might return.

At this point, only John Wall knows for sure what anyones chances are of getting him. If recent reports are true, then his top 2 choices right now are Memphis and Duke. Don't discount the fact that the kid wants to be near his mom, and that is an advantage that Duke has over Memphis.

Duke may or may not get him, but at this point I think their chances are as good as anyone elses. I would not categorize it as "no way he comes to Duke". We are all speculating. He would not have wasted his time to come meet with K if he has no intentions of considering Duke.

Time will tell..

chrisM
03-29-2009, 11:03 PM
IMO the only reason he would stay is if he thinks it will improve his draft position. Given the rookie salary scale, it might make sense financially to stay another year and be drafted in the top 5 versus leaving now and being drafted top 10-15. But then again leaving early gets the clock rolling sooner on that initial, fixed contract.

I am sure that GH's advisers are looking at another major issue: the NBA Collective Barganining Agreement. It is supposed to end following the 2010-11 season (meaning it would not affect GH if he stayed for the next year), but there are now hints that it might be opened up even sooner than that- perhaps after this current season or more likely the following one (after his senior year).

If that were to kick in the salary cap would move down and players would get less money- so perhaps sticking around to move up in the draft would end with less cash overall. So his advisers will have to weigh the chances of
the rookie salary cap coming down against his personal chances of getting drafted higher next year (which will also depend on who else will be coming out next year and this year).

Complicated question, I'm not sure that there is a good answer.

Chris

Chris

RockyMtnBlueDevil
03-29-2009, 11:34 PM
Excellent point about the CBA. We all must remember that the NBA is a business before anything else, making G's decision very difficult. The difference between leaving this year and next year could be a couple million dollars (one way or the other) over the life of the contract.

Oriole Way
03-30-2009, 09:25 AM
The Wade/Gerald comparisons are ludicrous. They are almost completely different players, regardless of how each player played in college. Wade possesses point guard skills, specifically handles and passing ability, that Gerald will NEVER possess. Gerald probably has a better vertical than Wade, but that alone won't take him very far.

For player comparisons, I think the NBA player Gerald reminds me the most of is Richard Jefferson. I also see a very, very, VERY (emphasis on very) poor man's version of Vince Carter.

For those who think Gerald has nothing to improve on, I disagree. He really needs to work on his ball-handling, decision-making (when/where to pass, not making turnovers), and driving to his left (something he did better as this past season went on).

I wouldn't blame him for going pro in a weak draft, but he would not be an impact player in his first few seasons. I think there would be benefits to returning for his senior season to lead an NCAA championship contender. He would be one of the faces of college basketball, and if he realizes his potential for next season, he would be a lottery pick either way, except he would be a little more prepared to contribute immediately for his NBA team.

I am very interested to see what happens with Henderson and Wall. Picking up Seth Curry was obviously a big move... the next few weeks will be very interesting for Duke fans.

CDu
03-30-2009, 10:29 AM
The Wade/Gerald comparisons are ludicrous. They are almost completely different players, regardless of how each player played in college. Wade possesses point guard skills, specifically handles and passing ability, that Gerald will NEVER possess. Gerald probably has a better vertical than Wade, but that alone won't take him very far.

I agree that the Wade comparison isn't a good one. I won't say that Henderson can never develop those ballhandling and passing skills, but he's very far from where Wade was in those areas coming out of college.


For player comparisons, I think the NBA player Gerald reminds me the most of is Richard Jefferson. I also see a very, very, VERY (emphasis on very) poor man's version of Vince Carter.

Completely agree on the Jefferson comp, though I think Carter had a bit better ballhandling. And it's important to remember that both Jefferson and Carter have 3-4 inches in height on Henderson, which is a big difference. Someone mentioned Jeff Trepagnier as well. He was 6'4" and a phenomenal leaper with a decent (not great) outside shot but limited ballhandling/passing skills. Henderson is better than Trepagnier, but I think this is a more reasonable comp. I'm sure there are lots of other examples as well of 6'4" guys with tremendous athleticism but who lack the ballhandling/passing skills to be an NBA lead guard and aren't phenomenal shooters.

Kedsy
03-30-2009, 10:46 AM
Henderson is better than Trepagnier, but I think this is a more reasonable comp.

Did you ever see Trepagnier play? He had serious hops. And I'm not sure G is a better player. Here are some comparative stats:

Gerald Henderson, junior year:
16.8 ppg
4.8 rpg
2.5 apg
1.3 steals pg
0.8 blocks pg
.461 fg%
.342 3p%
.755 ft%

Jeff Trepagnier, junior year:
15.9 ppg
6.6 rpg
2.1 apg
3.2 steals pg
1.4 blocks pg
.488 fg%
.380 3p%
.660 ft%


G has a slim edge in points and assists, and a larger one in ft%. Trepagnier was much better in rebounds, steals, blocks, fg% and 3-pt %. If you were choosing entirely based on statistics, I think you go Trepagnier.

I remember Trepagnier as a freakish athlete who tended to disappear for stretches of the game. I don't remember whether his defense was any good, but those steals and blocks numbers are impressive. He was also the same height as G, unlike Jefferson, Carter, Kobe, and LeBron. Unfortunately he didn't have much of an NBA career.

To me, Trepagnier should serve as a cautionary tale for G. That said, I'm not sure what G's best move should be regarding this year's draft.

OldSchool
03-30-2009, 10:47 AM
Richard Jefferson? Uh, no. Gerald is not big enough to match up at small forward in the league. Yes, he's an outstanding leaper, but he's not going to be able to consistently match up with guys who are 6'8" AND who have the athletic ability typical of the league.

If G becomes a success in the league, he is going to have to do it at shooting guard, not the forward position. And for him, that means his handles are going to have to get a lot better.

Oriole Way
03-30-2009, 10:51 AM
Richard Jefferson? Uh, no. Gerald is not big enough to match up at small forward in the league. Yes, he's an outstanding leaper, but he's not going to be able to consistently match up with guys who are 6'8" AND who have the athletic ability typical of the league.

If G becomes a success in the league, he is going to have to do it at shooting guard, not the forward position. And for him, that means his handles are going to have to get a lot better.

I didn't say Henderson would play as a forward in the NBA. I just said that I think Jefferson has the most similar game to Henderson in the NBA.

Kedsy
03-30-2009, 11:06 AM
I didn't say Henderson would play as a forward in the NBA. I just said that I think Jefferson has the most similar game to Henderson in the NBA.

If Jefferson was 6'4" he wouldn't be starting in the NBA. Those three inches matter a lot in the League.

Kewlswim
03-30-2009, 11:17 AM
Hi,

Has G said anything about going to the pros right away or is this just speculation? Don't all players with draft potential evaluate their situations at the end of each year (they are eligible) so as to make a decision? In other words, aren't all Duke Sophomores, Juniors, and potentially a Freshman or two on the team thinking about what they could do in the draft? I thought Coach K speaks with each kid after the season to talk about the future. I would be surprised if any decision has been made one way or the other.

GO DUKE!

Oriole Way
03-30-2009, 11:19 AM
If Jefferson was 6'4" he wouldn't be starting in the NBA. Those three inches matter a lot in the League.

How can you be so sure about that? Obviously it's tough to speculate, but if Jefferson were 6'4" and had the same skill set, he would make for a great shooting guard.

Oriole Way
03-30-2009, 11:24 AM
Hi,

Has G said anything about going to the pros right away or is this just speculation? Don't all players with draft potential evaluate their situations at the end of each year (they are eligible) so as to make a decision? In other words, aren't all Duke Sophomores, Juniors, and potentially a Freshman or two on the team thinking about what they could do in the draft? I thought Coach K speaks with each kid after the season to talk about the future. I would be surprised if any decision has been made one way or the other.

GO DUKE!

G has not said anything as far as I know. He was asked after the Villanova loss, but said he wasn't going to think about it until later, and that it wasn't the right time to think about it.

Like you said, K will talk with Gerald at some point. I'm sure that G will also talk things over with his family, and he will start feeling out for his draft position once other players declare.

TheBrianZoubekExperience
03-30-2009, 11:33 AM
I don't think its likely that Henderson can increase his draft stock by staying another year. I think he would really have to improve to go higher than he would this year. Next years draft is not projected to be very strong but this draft is really weak.

As for a comparison, I've always thought he reminded me of a poor man's and shorter Andre Iguodala. Both have elite athleticism with decent but not great shotting and a shaky handle. Both also tend to rely on their athleticism while going to the basket.

dubayuw
03-30-2009, 11:58 AM
From espn.com article on seth curry's transfer to duke:

Dell Curry said Krzyzewski stressed that the Blue Devils will need scoring guards in two seasons after the departure of juniors Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson.

This kinda implies that K thinks that G will stay. I dont know though, this is pretty vague but I thought it was worth posting.

Anyway, I think he will stay. He had an AWFUL last game and I just can't picture him leaving right after that. The team is having fun playing together and im pretty sure he wont suffer financially by staying for his senior year.

bjornolf
03-30-2009, 12:29 PM
Didn't we lose Shaun Livingston because of a CBA thing? Didn't he get out at least partially to avoid what was feared to be a multiple year college requirement, or was it the limiting of rookie contracts then? I thought there was something about that.

Hopefully we won't lose G to something like that. I just hope he makes a good decision for himself as a young man and basketball player, whether that's staying or going. If he loves Duke and wants a legit shot at a title with Scheyer as a teammate, he should stay. If he's eager to get in the league and start the rest of his life and thinks staying might hurt him in the long run, he should go. I don't think he should worry about how a CBA could hurt his first contract. He's not hurting for money, and if he's really good enough to be in the league, then his first contract will only last a couple years anyway, and then he can cash in for the big money. If his family were poor, the CBA would and should be a factor, but I don't think it should be in his case. If he's good, he'll still get his money, and if he's the face of wholesome college b-ball, he has the potential to make more in endorsements anyway. Remember, he may have a 15 year career in the NBA, but he only gets ONE more year at most of the relatively carefree college life with his buddies, and then that chapter's closed forever.

CDu
03-30-2009, 12:33 PM
Didn't we lose Shaun Livingston because of a CBA thing? Didn't he get out at least partially to avoid what was feared to be a multiple year college requirement, or was it the limiting of rookie contracts then? I thought there was something about that.

I don't think that was the case. I think it was simply a case of Livingston finding out he'd be a top-5 pick, and deciding to take the money while it was there to be had.

There was some discussion about McRoberts and the CBA, as he could have gone directly from high school or after his first year (when there was a weaker draft due to the implementation of the one-year rule). Instead, he stuck around. I don't think we've lost anyone due to CBA issues, but I could be mistaken.

The Gordog
03-30-2009, 12:35 PM
Anyone who is a scratch golfer has ridiculously good hand-eye coordination. And we have seen that G is already a ridiculous athlete.

There is no reason that someone with G's coordination can't develop into an ankle-breaker handling the ball. But he is nowhere, nowhere near that today.

Also his shot has improved greatly from his freshman year, but looking at the mechanics on his shot I don't think he is near what he is capable of. I love the height he gets on his shot and his followthrough. I think he can ultimately be a better shooter than D-Wade.

So yes, he has a long way to go. But he's building himself very slowly, and I don't think we yet know what his ceiling is.

Golf may indicate somthing about potential as a shooter, but says nothing about ball-handling.



This paper thin, and patently obvious and self serving, attempt to denigrate G's abilities to keep him at Duke is just sad.

That comment seemed sad, to me anyway.


From espn.com article on seth curry's transfer to duke:

This kinda implies that K thinks that G will stay. I dont know though, this is pretty vague but I thought it was worth posting.

I don't think so. No one from Duke will imply that G is not back unless it's certain.

Personally, I hope G stays because he has not come close to reaching his potential as a college player. JWill and Brand had and that's why K gave them his blessing. Corey M. and Avery had not and so left without his blessing. Mike D. and Boozer somewhere in between.

I have another selfish reason for wanting him to stay: my 7 year old loves having a guy who shares his name (although my son goes by Jerry) and is a star on the team. Every day out in the driveway Jerry is Gerald Henderson and capable of anything. He always beats Carolina with a twisting drive in the last seconds, or a deep "nothin' bu net" 3-pointer. Come back for another year G. We need you at my house.

NYDukie
03-30-2009, 12:52 PM
G's situation is more difficult than most for numerous reasons:

1. Does he want to leave Duke coming off a horrible tourney showing?
2. It seems he has team goals that trump individual goals.
3. His family's financial situations does not warrant him having to leave to support them.
4. Where does he fit in the draft? Most say borderline lottery. However, depending on what bigs and PGs are available, he could move up or down as those tend to be the positions that teams prioritize drafting early on in the draft. Unless you are LeBron, Wade or Kobe, the tendency seems to be teams draft big or go PG. This would seem to work against G initially but depending on what is out there, it could change.

My personal feeling is that he will test the draft but ultimately stay as I think he actually has more to gain by having a terrific senior year and elevating his game further. If he has the same type of senior year as this season, he probably still gets drafted late first round based on athletic ability.

Oriole Way
03-30-2009, 01:02 PM
G's situation is more difficult than most for numerous reasons:

1. Does he want to leave Duke coming off a horrible tourney showing?
2. It seems he has team goals that trump individual goals.
3. His family's financial situations does not warrant him having to leave to support them.
4. Where does he fit in the draft? Most say borderline lottery. However, depending on what bigs and PGs are available, he could move up or down as those tend to be the positions that teams prioritize drafting early on in the draft. Unless you are LeBron, Wade or Kobe, the tendency seems to be teams draft big or go PG. This would seem to work against G initially but depending on what is out there, it could change.

My personal feeling is that he will test the draft but ultimately stay as I think he actually has more to gain by having a terrific senior year and elevating his game further. If he has the same type of senior year as this season, he probably still gets drafted late first round based on athletic ability.

Well said. I agree with this assessment.

NYDukie
03-30-2009, 01:10 PM
Well said. I agree with this assessment.

His situation is really a roll of the dice. I would hate to see him declare and then see his name just fall out of the first round. That said, I can't really be critical if he was to declare and stay in the draft. I just hope most posters don't get too high and mighty on G if he tests the waters or declares with regards to the draft.

MulletMan
03-30-2009, 01:16 PM
His situation is really a roll of the dice. I would hate to see him declare and then see his name just fall out of the first round. That said, I can't really be critical if he was to declare and stay in the draft. I just hope most posters don't get too high and mighty on G if he tests the waters or declares with regards to the draft.

Indeed.

Look, anything can happen...

See:

Mike Dunleavy
Luol Deng
Shavlick Randolph

There was no way to predict what happened with these players, and there is no way to predict what will happen with G. 50% of the opinions will be right, and then those people will say, "See I told you so." And that will be fine, but whatever happens, I would suggest that everyone support G in his decision, lest we have animosity like last year with a guy like Lawson.

NYDukie
03-30-2009, 01:31 PM
G is 3rd team All-American according to ESPN. Does this elevate his draft stock or not? Are those on the team with him the type of players NBA teams would draft rather than G? Interesting to see where he stands amongst his peers based on this vote. However, personally I do not see any direct relation between this and his draftability as the NBA draft is based more on potential than production.

BD80
03-30-2009, 01:42 PM
Couple of random thoughts:

G's Dad has the money to get G to workouts anywhere, and the contacts to make it happen. G should go to the workouts to get analysis of his game and a measure of where he is on an NBA level.

G has the quicks and the lift to get his shot off against just about anyone. He does need work on making shots under defensive pressure. NBA off guards are MUCH longer than he sees at the college level. Another year of working on getting separation with his dribble, making his outside shot, working on his pull up shots, and his dribble penetration. I think he could also work on his defense.

Comparing G's game to Wade's is not that unfair. Wade became a MUCH better shooter and ball-handler over his senior year and in his first years at Miami. He also got much stronger. It would not surprise me if Coach K is using that comparison as a goal for G. It doesn't hurt that Coach K has some experience with Wade. :)

Would G start next year in the pros? Go down a list of NBA rosters, and look at the starting SGs, how many could G displace? Would he develop his game more practicing with a very good and deep Duke squad and playing 35+ college games as the go-to guy, or by practicing with an NBA team and seeing sporadic action for 82 games in the pros?

Which will he enjoy more?

I hope to see G back, but wish him well whatever his decision.

NashvilleDevil
03-30-2009, 01:46 PM
Couple of random thoughts:

Comparing G's game to Wade's is not that unfair. Wade became a MUCH better shooter and ball-handler over his senior year and in his first years at Miami. He also got much stronger. It would not surprise me if Coach K is using that comparison as a goal for G. It doesn't hurt that Coach K has some experience with Wade. :)

Minor quibble, Wade left after his junior year at Marquette.

BD80
03-30-2009, 02:34 PM
Minor quibble, Wade left after his junior year at Marquette.

OK, so maybe the line is a bit less parallel than I hoped to draw :rolleyes:

But even though Wade left early, he was 22 when he turned pro.

Gerald is 21, if he comes back, he will begin his rookie year at he same age as the Flash. There, parallel again. :D

flyingdutchdevil
03-30-2009, 08:57 PM
According to bunch of sites, like nbadraft.net and draftexpress.com, G's stock is really high. Also, these sites aren't run by amateurs - the guys know what they are talking about.

If you are a) a junior and b) a 10 ten pick (while not guaranteed, many think you are), would you come back to school? If your answer is yes, imagine if G didn't go to Duke. Would your answer still be yes?

Generally, and I mean generally (please don't bombared me with the exceptions. Yes - I know they exist. Yes - both JJ and Shelden were exceptions), if your stock is really high as a junior, it will most likely fall during your senior year. More time on the court = more time for scouts and critics to see your weaknesses. Hansborough is a key example of this. Also, there is the possibility of injury.

It's a tough choice. Either way, it's smart to test the waters. It can only do G good.

DukieInBrasil
03-30-2009, 09:10 PM
If G wants to go pro, he would do well to emulate Dwayne Wade. I have never thought that their games are so similar but it was a good point (someone) made.
I tend to think of G as more of a Corey Maggette type player. Corey is super athletic and can hit mid-range jumpers and slam with authority, but he is not a good 3pt shooter (in the NBA at least). He is pretty streaky as he can absolutely dominate some games and sometimes will shoot like 1-10.
We saw quite a bit of this streakiness with G this year, he was sizzling hot there in the middle of the ACC season and cooled off towards the end. Corey is a good rebounder as is G. They are probably about on par as passers/creators. Corey started in LA and also in Oakland, and didn´t do that well, and was then rotated to 6th man and got much better (in both locales). If G were to get to where Corey´s at professionally, I think he would be about fulfilling his potential. Personally, i am hoping G comes back and helps us win a the title.

flyingdutchdevil
03-30-2009, 09:15 PM
If G wants to go pro, he would do well to emulate Dwayne Wade. I have never thought that their games are so similar but it was a good point (someone) made.
I tend to think of G as more of a Corey Maggette type player. Corey is super athletic and can hit mid-range jumpers and slam with authority, but he is not a good 3pt shooter (in the NBA at least). He is pretty streaky as he can absolutely dominate some games and sometimes will shoot like 1-10.
We saw quite a bit of this streakiness with G this year, he was sizzling hot there in the middle of the ACC season and cooled off towards the end. Corey is a good rebounder as is G. They are probably about on par as passers/creators. Corey started in LA and also in Oakland, and didn´t do that well, and was then rotated to 6th man and got much better (in both locales). If G were to get to where Corey´s at professionally, I think he would be about fulfilling his potential. Personally, i am hoping G comes back and helps us win a the title.

NBAdraft.net actually compares G to Latrell Sprewell minus the crazy. I actually think this is a really good comparison. Sprewell was an amazing second banana and was a great sidekick. I think G fits this role really well. Can you imagine G playing next to Chris Bosh? That would be amazing...

DukiesPA
03-30-2009, 10:19 PM
We all know that G comes from a good background and doesn't need the money...let's put that aside.

If you're him and you're hearing you'll go 10-12 (lower than some sites have him, higher than others), I'm not sure I don't go. If you hear you're going that high, do you risk coming back to:

a) let people analyze your weaknesses relative to your athleticism?
b) have a lesser season (let's not forget we're expecting Kyle, Elliot, and Nolan to score next year -- if he comes back there's a good chance his numbers actually go down)?
c) get hurt?
d) run into a deeper draft where, even if he stays stable or improves slightly as a player his stock goes down to the 13-15 range?

I think he'll explore the idea and, ultimately, leave. As many other posters have noted it's not always about they money -- there's often an ego to feed there (that's not necessarily a bad thing, so please don't take it that way -- think Kobe, MJ, etc.), and I think G certainly has that ego. That draft number is a pretty valuable thing for any prospective pro and, ultimately, I think something G can't pass up.

Kewlswim
03-31-2009, 01:24 AM
Hi,

I know how we are all (or at least us sane ones :p) rooting for UNC to lose in the FF. However, let's say they go on to win it all and the senior players talk about how happy they are to have come back to do it? G's best friend from high school is on that there Carolina team and will undoubtedly talk to G about the experience. Could it be that a UNC FF Championship might actually influence G to stay in school? Nah. That couldn't happen. :eek:

GO DUKE!

AIRFORCEDUKIE
03-31-2009, 02:29 AM
Hi,

I know how we are all (or at least us sane ones :p) rooting for UNC to lose in the FF. However, let's say they go on to win it all and the senior players talk about how happy they are to have come back to do it? G's best friend from high school is on that there Carolina team and will undoubtedly talk to G about the experience. Could it be that a UNC FF Championship might actually influence G to stay in school? Nah. That couldn't happen. :eek:

GO DUKE!

Or since unc won the championship (God Forbid) and then Ellington enters the draft. Then G might want to jump in with him. Just a thought.

Airforcedukie

Kewlswim
03-31-2009, 09:53 AM
Or since unc won the championship (God Forbid) and then Ellington enters the draft. Then G might want to jump in with him. Just a thought.

Airforcedukie

Hi,

Your right. I can go and in completely good conscious root against UNC. :p

GO DUKE!

jv001
03-31-2009, 10:16 AM
We all know that G comes from a good background and doesn't need the money...let's put that aside.

If you're him and you're hearing you'll go 10-12 (lower than some sites have him, higher than others), I'm not sure I don't go. If you hear you're going that high, do you risk coming back to:

a) let people analyze your weaknesses relative to your athleticism?
b) have a lesser season (let's not forget we're expecting Kyle, Elliot, and Nolan to score next year -- if he comes back there's a good chance his numbers actually go down)?
c) get hurt?
d) run into a deeper draft where, even if he stays stable or improves slightly as a player his stock goes down to the 13-15 range?

I think he'll explore the idea and, ultimately, leave. As many other posters have noted it's not always about they money -- there's often an ego to feed there (that's not necessarily a bad thing, so please don't take it that way -- think Kobe, MJ, etc.), and I think G certainly has that ego. That draft number is a pretty valuable thing for any prospective pro and, ultimately, I think something G can't pass up.

You make some very good points. Two of them stick out at me. Number one is what if more teams defend Gerald like Nova did? They contested most every shot he took. Sure he can have put up some good numbers against early competion, but once ACC play begins, it's a different story. Numbe two is this years draft is considered weak by must so called experts. That means Gerald would go higher in this years draft. I really don't expect to see Gerald in Duke next season. I just don't want him to be with the bobcats(unc). Go Duke!

UrinalCake
03-31-2009, 10:54 AM
Or since unc won the championship (God Forbid) and then Ellington enters the draft. Then G might want to jump in with him. Just a thought.

That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me... why would he make a career- and life-altering decision based on what his friend does? If anything, Ellington declaring would mean one more player with whom to compete for a draft spot.

For now I'm going to hope that as many other players as possible declare for the draft, even though it's not really "good" for college basketball as a whole.

moonpie23
03-31-2009, 11:02 AM
everyone is talking about the second round being like the plague for nba'ers...

remember, Boozer "slipped" to the second round....

ice-9
03-31-2009, 12:00 PM
everyone is talking about the second round being like the plague for nba'ers...

remember, Boozer "slipped" to the second round....

...which pissed him off so much that he played with a chip on his shoulder and became an all-star.

I don't know if it's embarrassing, but being picked in the 2nd round is certainly not something to be proud of. And it has a big effect too on job security and income.

calltheobvious
03-31-2009, 12:08 PM
That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me... why would he make a career- and life-altering decision based on what his friend does? If anything, Ellington declaring would mean one more player with whom to compete for a draft spot.

For now I'm going to hope that as many other players as possible declare for the draft, even though it's not really "good" for college basketball as a whole.

In theory, I think you're right all the way around. In practice, G's draft status won't be affected one whit by the decision of someone that far down in the pecking order.

j(ay)mike
03-31-2009, 12:10 PM
G's situation is more difficult than most for numerous reasons:

1. Does he want to leave Duke coming off a horrible tourney showing?
2. It seems he has team goals that trump individual goals.
3. His family's financial situations does not warrant him having to leave to support them.
4. Where does he fit in the draft? Most say borderline lottery. However, depending on what bigs and PGs are available, he could move up or down as those tend to be the positions that teams prioritize drafting early on in the draft. Unless you are LeBron, Wade or Kobe, the tendency seems to be teams draft big or go PG. This would seem to work against G initially but depending on what is out there, it could change.

My personal feeling is that he will test the draft but ultimately stay as I think he actually has more to gain by having a terrific senior year and elevating his game further. If he has the same type of senior year as this season, he probably still gets drafted late first round based on athletic ability.

I don't mean to pick on this poster, but I see these arguments frequently this time of year, and I always ask myself the same questions:

1) How much does it really matter to a player who is considering coming out what his shooting percentage in his last college game was? This seems like a real reach to me, and is meant to give the "he'll stay" crowd false hope. Has anyone ever asked a kid who decided to go pro/decided to stay after a bad shooting game what role the "shooting performance" actually played? I'm just curious...

2) We can say this about pretty much anyone who doesn't publicly rant and rave about himself like T.O.

3) Again, another one for the "he'll stay" crowd. Mike Dunleavy wasn't hurting for cash, IIRC. The more important factor here, IMO, is the kid's fire to compete at the highest level - not whether he "needs the money", although I'll admit that in some cases (Luol Deng), it does matter.

4) Nobody knows for sure where anyone fits in the draft (expect, possible, Blake Griffin this year) until the pre-draft workouts are concluded. How he shows at these things will determine (and, arguably, SHOULD determine, if he's interested in making the leap right now) what he does. Again, see Mike Dunleavy. And to wrap this one up, does anyone really think an NBA GM would care what the kid's last shooting performance looked like if he shows really well at the pre-draft workout? I can't imagine a GM (even Elgin Baylor) saying, "Wow - this kid really blew me away, but he only shot 12% against Charleston in the Round of 32, so he's off my board." That just seems a little unrealistic.

Anyway...just my two cents on that. ;)

CMS2478
03-31-2009, 12:30 PM
When do the pre-draft camps start? I'm assuming we are going to have to wait a while before we know the status of Henderson next year, if he is basing it on his showing at the camps. He may just decide one way or the other without waiting for the camps, but I don't really see that happening.

CameronBornAndBred
03-31-2009, 12:38 PM
everyone is talking about the second round being like the plague for nba'ers...

remember, Boozer "slipped" to the second round....
So was Duhon. (He didn't leave early though)
But then you also have to look at McRoberts, who left early so he could be a second rounder and has been riding the pine since he left. I don't see the same fate for Henderson, but you can't take anything for granted.
(I'll miss Henderson for more than McRoberts)

KandG
03-31-2009, 04:18 PM
I'm on record as feeling Gerald will go, and wanting the discussion of next year's team to be focused on who's coming back, as opposed to being distracted with lots of wishful "what-if" scenarios, and moralizing about kids making a "legacy" at their school. (If he does decide to come back, hey, what a pleasant bonus).

But here's the latest from ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=TourneyWatch-090331) on Gerald's so-called "falling" stock. Make of it what you will:


Henderson did a lot to resurrect his draft stock during the second half of the season. He was aggressive, shot the lights out and proved that he had the combination of size, athleticism and skill to be a legit starting guard in the pros.

However, all of that came crashing down a bit in the tournament -- Henderson shot 11-for-44 from the field, went 1-for-11 from 3 and came up completely empty against Villanova with a 1-for-14 performance. Immediately after the game, the Henderson doubters were back out in full force questioning his ability to be a top-tier shooting guard in the NBA.

"I think his defensive ability and his basketball IQ will allow him to stick in the pros," said one NBA GM. "But what's the difference between him and Dahntay Jones?"

We have had Henderson in the mid-first round for the past two months and still think he'll go somewhere between 13 and 22. I know a few draft prognosticators have been talking about Henderson as a Top 5 pick -- it only takes one GM to love him that high -- however, Billy Knight won't be making any picks this year, and the GMs I've spoken with don't have him close to that high.

gumbomoop
03-31-2009, 04:53 PM
But here's the latest from ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=TourneyWatch-090331) on Gerald's so-called "falling" stock. Make of it what you will:

"I think his defensive ability and his basketball IQ will allow him to stick in the pros," said one NBA GM. "But what's the difference between him and Dahntay Jones?"[/I]

Having myself made the comparison between G, right now, and Dahntay, at end of his sr yr, I'll comment just a bit further. Beyond their obviously comparable athleticism, D was better on D, and maybe G's marginally better on O. Both have mediocre handles, which is partly why D rarely plays even 20minutes for Denver [discounting the George Karl factor]. But D has found a spot in the league. As can G. But what spot? Must improve handle, and his D a bit, too, though I'd think teams would project him as a likely solid defender a few years hence.

G's Kobe-Grant-like lift on soft-sweet jumper is lovely, and that seems his drawing power, after his drive-hops. But drive-hop ineffective with weak handle.

We all want him to stay, partly for selfish reasons, but also because he certainly can improve in several ways with another year.

Speaking selfishly, in rosiest scenario [i.e., G + Wall/Bledsoe], Duke is preseason #1-3. If none of those 3 players are here, every coach in US would love to have our returnees + very impressive [last night's McD AA stuff] Kelly and MP2, and we're stll top 7.

MChambers
03-31-2009, 05:04 PM
Having myself made the comparison between G, right now, and Dahntay, at end of his sr yr, I'll comment just a bit further. Beyond their obviously comparable athleticism, D was better on D, and maybe G's marginally better on O. Both have mediocre handles, which is partly why D rarely plays even 20minutes for Denver [discounting the George Karl factor]. But D has found a spot in the league. As can G. But what spot? Must improve handle, and his D a bit, too, though I'd think teams would project him as a likely solid defender a few years hence.

G's Kobe-Grant-like lift on soft-sweet jumper is lovely, and that seems his drawing power, after his drive-hops. But drive-hop ineffective with weak handle.

We all want him to stay, partly for selfish reasons, but also because he certainly can improve in several ways with another year.

Speaking selfishly, in rosiest scenario [i.e., G + Wall/Bledsoe], Duke is preseason #1-3. If none of those 3 players are here, every coach in US would love to have our returnees + very impressive [last night's McD AA stuff] Kelly and MP2, and we're stll top 7.

I'd say G has a better handle, if only slightly, and is better passing off of the drive than Dahntay ever was. He also is a better shooter. But I agree that the comparison is a valid one.

Owen Meany
03-31-2009, 06:36 PM
I am very curious how Henderson is viewed by the NBA at this time. I wonder if many fans here may be overestimating his value due to his outstanding athleticism/leaping ability (this is a welcome change from denigrating the player's pro potential as you often see). I think some of the internet draft sites fall into this trap. Maggette's athleticism is what lead to claims he would be the number one pick of the Chicago Bulls. But Maggette dropped to the end of the lottery, despite being taller and considerably stronger . Of course, this is a different year, so we'll have to see who declares. I'm just not convinced that G's jaw-dropping athleticism moves him to the top of the draft.


Earlier in the year, I had Henderson pegged for early departure - when he was playing his best, hitting those Kobe-esque jump shots. It seems that his effectiveness and percentages dropped significantly as teams started to learn his tendencies, however. I would think scouts noticed this also.


The end of Duke's season was not ideal, and Henderson had a particularly bad day. I don't think its out of the question to think that some NBA types may have been disappointed to see that no one stepped up for Duke when Nova was taking it to them. Some scouts may not have seen the response they expected, which may have changed their perception of a player. It appeared the Duke team was thrown off by the physical play - which could raise concerns over how prepared the players are for the rigors of the NBA.


So I don't think Henderson leaving early and going in the lottery is as certain as some people think. I am very thankful that he has the resources he has in Coach K and his father who can separate the wheat from the chaff to determine where he really will go. Then he can make an informed decision. He may also be able to leverage the possibility of returning to Duke to get himself a guarantee. I've never seen it mentioned, but I always felt this is what happened with Dunleavy. He never looked better to teams than when they were afraid they couldn't have him. Teams were so worried he would pull out of the draft that he received an early guarantee. Had he entered the draft right out, and hired an agent, I feel that teams would have absolutely picked him apart (due to his build, athleticism, etc). Once he got a guarantee at 3 it was a no-brainer.


I hope that Henderson is viewed as a definite lottery pick and a can't miss prospect. He's represented the team and university very well, and has really worked hard on his game. I'm just less certain than some that this is the case. BUt I never dreamed Langdon, Dunleavy or S. Williams would go as gigh as they did, either. And I didn't see Boozer being an All-Star or Demarcus making an NBA squad. So, I wish G the best of luck and am glad he can make an informed decision.

Kdogg
04-01-2009, 12:30 PM
Maggette's athleticism is what lead to claims he would be the number one pick of the Chicago Bulls. But Maggette dropped to the end of the lottery, despite being taller and considerably stronger .

One of the reasons Cory was getting the early hype was because of Vince Carter. Carter was a human highlight reel on Sports Center that year. People saw the same potential in Cory (because he did have some speculator dunks) and started the hype.

I hope Gerald does what's best for Gerald. I wish he comes back but understand if he goes the other way. At the very least, I expect him to put his name in the draft and go through workouts without an agent.

arydolphin
04-04-2009, 09:39 PM
Update from Jonathan Givony of Draft Express, which isn't good news for us (http://www.draftexpress.com/blog/Jonathan-Givony/#Blogging-through-the-Final-Four-Part-One--3164):
-Gerald Henderson is also expected to announce he’s leaving college shortly, and is expected to hire an agent with strong ties to Duke.

Of course, if he hires an agent, he cannot come back to college, so that's the important bit of news from that blurb. Draft Express is a bit more reputable than some other draft sites out there, like nbadraft.net.

BlueinBlo
04-04-2009, 09:55 PM
Update from Jonathan Givony of Draft Express, which isn't good news for us (http://www.draftexpress.com/blog/Jonathan-Givony/#Blogging-through-the-Final-Four-Part-One--3164):
-Gerald Henderson is also expected to announce he’s leaving college shortly, and is expected to hire an agent with strong ties to Duke.

Of course, if he hires an agent, he cannot come back to college, so that's the important bit of news from that blurb. Draft Express is a bit more reputable than some other draft sites out there, like nbadraft.net.

Crap!!! That makes Wall all that more important. Why would he do it so early. If I were him I would wait till the end of the signing season and see who comes in. I really thought he would stay seeing how close he was to Scheyer and especially Coach K.

loran16
04-04-2009, 09:59 PM
Update from Jonathan Givony of Draft Express, which isn't good news for us (http://www.draftexpress.com/blog/Jonathan-Givony/#Blogging-through-the-Final-Four-Part-One--3164):
-Gerald Henderson is also expected to announce he’s leaving college shortly, and is expected to hire an agent with strong ties to Duke.

Of course, if he hires an agent, he cannot come back to college, so that's the important bit of news from that blurb. Draft Express is a bit more reputable than some other draft sites out there, like nbadraft.net.

I don't get this rumor. I expect him to test the draft and probably go in it personally, but why hire an agent? Why burn the bridges before you know whats going to happen? Considering Chad Ford has Hendo in the 20s, and Ford is known to have a lot of contact with GMs, that seems like a silly risk.

DUKIE V(A)
04-04-2009, 11:39 PM
Hope the rumor isn't true, but if it is I wish G all the best. For selfish reasons, I wish he'd stick around for his senior year. I think he could do something really special.

eddiehaskell
04-05-2009, 12:03 AM
I am very curious how Henderson is viewed by the NBA at this time. I wonder if many fans here may be overestimating his value due to his outstanding athleticism/leaping ability (this is a welcome change from denigrating the player's pro potential as you often see). I think some of the internet draft sites fall into this trap. Maggette's athleticism is what lead to claims he would be the number one pick of the Chicago Bulls. But Maggette dropped to the end of the lottery, despite being taller and considerably stronger . Of course, this is a different year, so we'll have to see who declares. I'm just not convinced that G's jaw-dropping athleticism moves him to the top of the draft.I agree. As athletic as Hendo is, IMO he still needs to work on his ball handling and shot (especially considering he's not 6'8"+). In the NBA, a lot of players will have comparable athleticism.

BlueintheFace
04-05-2009, 12:07 AM
Bye Gerald. I'll miss you.

soccerstud2210
04-05-2009, 12:21 AM
Update from Jonathan Givony of Draft Express, which isn't good news for us (http://www.draftexpress.com/blog/Jonathan-Givony/#Blogging-through-the-Final-Four-Part-One--3164):
-Gerald Henderson is also expected to announce he’s leaving college shortly, and is expected to hire an agent with strong ties to Duke.

Of course, if he hires an agent, he cannot come back to college, so that's the important bit of news from that blurb. Draft Express is a bit more reputable than some other draft sites out there, like nbadraft.net.

can anyone confirm this to be true? if so, then when is he supposed to officially announce?

eddiehaskell
04-05-2009, 12:30 AM
Anyone think not landing a premier big man may factor into his decision?

Kewlswim
04-05-2009, 12:31 AM
Bye Gerald. I'll miss you.

Hi,

G might leave, I think he will, but please let him say he is leaving. Furthermore, let him say he is hiring an agent and not just testing the waters. These are all just rumors--nothing more. People out there might be saying stuff to get hits on their web sites or who knows what else.

GO DUKE!

Double DD
04-05-2009, 12:52 AM
Update from Jonathan Givony of Draft Express, which isn't good news for us (http://www.draftexpress.com/blog/Jonathan-Givony/#Blogging-through-the-Final-Four-Part-One--3164):
-Gerald Henderson is also expected to announce he’s leaving college shortly, and is expected to hire an agent with strong ties to Duke.

Of course, if he hires an agent, he cannot come back to college, so that's the important bit of news from that blurb. Draft Express is a bit more reputable than some other draft sites out there, like nbadraft.net.

Sounds like he might be getting Arn Tellem then for an agent.

And it should be mentioned since his dad is an ex-player with tons of contacts (at least 3 former teammates are current GMs), he probably has a clearer idea of his position in the draft than other entrants.

arnie
04-05-2009, 09:30 AM
Anyone think not landing a premier big man may factor into his decision?

I think G has to look at next year and realize that he will see double teaming and clogged lanes with inside defenders in most games similar to the Nova game. With limited inside presence and doubtful that we will have a penetrating point guard, he'll have to create most of his shots off outside screens or simply great athletic moves. I suspect he's gone.

dukelifer
04-05-2009, 10:24 AM
I think G has to look at next year and realize that he will see double teaming and clogged lanes with inside defenders in most games similar to the Nova game. With limited inside presence and doubtful that we will have a penetrating point guard, he'll have to create most of his shots off outside screens or simply great athletic moves. I suspect he's gone.

I doubt this is playing into his decisions. He is a likely high lottery pick this year. That has been his goal since he entered college. If the NBA thinks he is ready by offering him this opportunity- then he goes. He could be player of the year next year- but I doubt he will improve his draft standing by much. In fact, it could tumble for a lot of reasons. Even though his last game was a disaster- he has been one of the more entertaining players in the ACC and perhaps all of college ball and the NBA is all about entertainment. G has a lot of work to do- but his game is suited to the next level. I am sure his Dad is letting him know how much work he needs to do- as he will now be playing against men who are bigger, stronger and quicker.

DevilWolf
04-05-2009, 10:33 AM
I don't get why he hasn't put his name in yet. Any junior who has a chance of playing NBA ball should at least put their name in and then decide later to sign with an agent or not.

jv001
04-05-2009, 10:42 AM
Sounds like he might be getting Arn Tellem then for an agent.

And it should be mentioned since his dad is an ex-player with tons of contacts (at least 3 former teammates are current GMs), he probably has a clearer idea of his position in the draft than other entrants.

You are probably correct in that Gerald, Sr. has been in touch with NBA folks about his son. I don't think the Nova game will be very important in his decision. Go get em Gerald. Make us proud. Go Duke!

camion
04-05-2009, 10:44 AM
Is there a good reason to officially declare well before the deadline, other than to satisfy fan curiosity?

RelativeWays
04-05-2009, 11:11 AM
I wonder if he's waiting to see what Ellington will do. I could see both of them wanting to go Pro together since they are good friends and extremely competitive.

Skitzle
04-05-2009, 11:43 AM
Anyone think not landing a premier big man may factor into his decision?

No. That's just absurd.

roywhite
04-05-2009, 11:50 AM
Is there a good reason to officially declare well before the deadline, other than to satisfy fan curiosity?

Not much of one. Maybe to arrange meetings and workouts with individual teams. Or to have an agent work on some endorsement deals. But the draft itself is not until late June.

grossbus
04-05-2009, 12:02 PM
i prefer to think he wants to come back. "own this league" gerald. do it!

Edouble
04-05-2009, 12:18 PM
And it should be mentioned since his dad is an ex-player with tons of contacts (at least 3 former teammates are current GMs), he probably has a clearer idea of his position in the draft than other entrants.

Of course you're right, but at this point, I can't see how any of those contacts are much help at all in getting an idea of his position in the draft.

If G signs with an agent, he can't come back. If he wants to know where he's going to be picked, I'm not sure how much more info. he can get from an agent above and beyond what Coach K and his dad can provide. Regardless, I don't see how getting an agent now (if that rumor is true), or having his dad's contacts squeezed for information helps much, right now, before we've even had the draft lottery!!! The GMs don't know where they'll be picking, so how can G get much of a feel for where he'll go? In fact, we don't even know which teams will be picking in the lottery!

I think it's wise to at least see which teams are going to be picking, and even better to find out the lottery order before hiring an agent. IMO, G's stock isn't that high that he should just go all in yet. Why not wait 'til the playoff situation is resolved, get the lottery teams figured out, etc, etc, then use Coach K and his dad to get more information, see what plays out in the draft lottery, meet with a few teams, do a few workouts, then decide to hire an agent. It seems foolish to make a firm decision now, when the teams that are probably going to be picking G (late lottery, early non-lottery) don't have a very clear idea of where they are going to have their picks.

In Example: Chicago could finish the season strong and wind up as high as the 6th or 7th spot in the East, getting, say, the 18th pick in the draft. They could also whiff, end up in the lottery, get lucky with the lottery balls, and get the 4th pick. So how could info. from a team like Chicago be worth much at this point? I think at this point in the season the teams that might be picking G are sort of in this camp.

Atlanta Duke
04-05-2009, 12:19 PM
I wonder if he's waiting to see what Ellington will do. I could see both of them wanting to go Pro together since they are good friends and extremely competitive.

Would you join a business such as a law firm or an investment bank (based on the huge assumption any such institution was not engaged in furloughs and hiring freezes) based upon what a friend was doing? At some point it has to just be a rational business decision

Based on this year's draft class apparently being anticipated to be weaker than next year's class, leaving now rather than waiting until next year may result in a higher draft slot (see, e.g., Mike Dunleavy)

Good luck to Gerald as he decides when to leave school to embark on his chosen profession

BobbyFan
04-05-2009, 12:21 PM
I think G has to look at next year and realize that he will see double teaming and clogged lanes with inside defenders in most games similar to the Nova game. With limited inside presence and doubtful that we will have a penetrating point guard, he'll have to create most of his shots off outside screens or simply great athletic moves. I suspect he's gone.

How is this different from this past year? And why weren't teams able to to that to Gerald all year long? The reality is, it was only one game, and it will play little if any role in his final decision.

geraldsneighbor
04-05-2009, 02:05 PM
This is really unfortunate considering G has so much to improve on and I would be so disappointed for him to leave at a time when we are finally beginning to build something. I hope G realizes what he would be leaving and that he can't get his senior year back. If he is a lottery pick I'll support his decision but I'll obviously be upset we won't have him next year.

DDB4208
04-05-2009, 02:25 PM
I don't get why he hasn't put his name in yet. Any junior who has a chance of playing NBA ball should at least put their name in and then decide later to sign with an agent or not.

The Duke Basketball Banquet is April 18th I believe. All the parents will be there and he might not want to declare so that the attention is all on him.

DDB4208
04-05-2009, 02:28 PM
Reasons G Should Stay, Tell me if you can think of any more?

If G-sus stays...

Team: Duke will be Good

-Duke has all starters returning; loses only Dave and Greg
Reasoning: Kyle said that he would return and D + G are only seniors

- Jon Scheyer is one of G's best friends and is his roommate; they also have great chemistry together

-Duke will be Preseason Top 5 team, Possibly #1
Reasoning: All Top 25 teams are losing seniors or players to the Draft; The teams that look the strongest are Kansas (if Aldrich + Collins stay), Syracuse (if Flynn stays), MSU, Kentucky (if Patterson + Meeks stay and all Memphis recruits go there), Purdue, USC (if everyone stays), Villanova

Personal Accolades

-Will be favorite to win ACC POY
Reasoning: (Only returning 1st Team All-ACC; Competition for POY who were all ACC and will return are: 2nd Team: Trevor Booker, Singler, maybe Vasquez; 3rd Team: Delaney and Gani Lawal; Honorable Mention: Landesburg; Other Competition: Davis, Favors, Alabi...

- Will likely be 1st Team All-American (Same reason as below)

-Could win National POY
Reasoning: It looks like every one of the 11 player on the Wooden All-American Team will leave for draft; The only question marks are DeJuan Blair and Stephen Curry

Unfinished Business/ Experiences

- Graduate and get Degree

- Get to have a Senior Day in Cameron against UNC

- UNC: G is 1-5 against UNC (by an average loss of 10 points), 0-3 in Cameron

- Duke will be favorite to win ACC Regular Season Championship
Reasoning: UNC loses everybody except Davis, WF loses Johnson, Aminu and Teague, FSU is w/out Douglas

- Duke will be favorite to win ACC Tournament Championship (Same reason)

- Get past the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2004

- Possible Final Four

- Possible National Championship


Reasons Not to Come Back

- Could get injured in college
- Guarantied $

eddiehaskell
04-05-2009, 02:34 PM
No. That's just absurd.I don't see how it's absurd to think he may believe next year will turn out like the last 3 years (largely due to the lack of an inside game). I'm not saying it's the deciding factor, but I can see the thought "can this team win it all next year" running through his mind.

DDB4208
04-05-2009, 02:44 PM
I think G is ready for the NBA but right now scouts have him as a defensive specialist and compare him to Dahntay Jones. They both have the same athleticism, good perimeter defense and around the same shooting ability. Dahntay's senior year averaged: ppg: 17.7 rpg: 5.5 apg: 1.1 spg. G averaged: ppg: 16.5 rpg: 4.9 apg: 2.5 spg: 1.2. These are very similar. I think G has more potiential then Dahntay did at this point, which will work in his favor. But I just can't see G hurting his stock if he stays another year, but then again he can't raise it much either (at most maybe 4 picks). I think if he leaves this year he is looking at being picked 5-8 and next year 3-7.

geraldsneighbor
04-05-2009, 02:50 PM
I think G is ready for the NBA but right now scouts have him as a defensive specialist and compare him to Dahntay Jones. They both have the same athleticism, good perimeter defense and around the same shooting ability. Dahntay's senior year averaged: ppg: 17.7 rpg: 5.5 apg: 1.1 spg. G averaged: ppg: 16.5 rpg: 4.9 apg: 2.5 spg: 1.2. These are very similar. I think G has more potiential then Dahntay did at this point, which will work in his favor. But I just can't see G hurting his stock if he stays another year, but then again he can't raise it much either (at most maybe 4 picks). I think if he leaves this year he is looking at being picked 5-8 and next year 3-7.

Yeah, but what if his stock falls like Josh's did? He was thought to go about 15-20 and ended up 37th. If G does declare I'd advise him to keep his options open. I'd be hard pressed to find someone who has hurt their stock playing their senior season. I just feel like G would be entering based on his potential over what he has really done. While his junior year was amazing to follow (January on) that was about all we got to see from him other then the flashes he showed a couple times in his Sophomore year.

gotham devil
04-05-2009, 03:02 PM
. I'd be hard pressed to find someone who has hurt their stock playing their senior season.

Darren Collison this season

geraldsneighbor
04-05-2009, 03:05 PM
Darren Collison this season

He fell from like 25 to 32 most likely. Not a huge drop off but his weaknesses in controlling other PGs was exposed when he lost his surrounding cast which was pretty good.

MonitorMom
04-05-2009, 03:06 PM
Players who were on the team with Josh share that he detracted from the dynamics and chemistry of the team while G contributes not only from a skill standpoint but inspires all the players to do that much better. We cant know how G will fare next year compared to this year but we know that he is unlikely to do a crash and burn and a comparison to Josh's situation might not be tkaing into account all the variables.

Dukebasketball32
04-05-2009, 03:29 PM
If i'm G i would say id have to declare. I personally think hes ready to take his game to the next level. Obviously i prefer him to stay, but i dont have my head in the clouds on this one. Duke will be G-less next season.

DDB4208
04-05-2009, 04:15 PM
Yeah, but what if his stock falls like Josh's did? He was thought to go about 15-20 and ended up 37th. If G does declare I'd advise him to keep his options open. I'd be hard pressed to find someone who has hurt their stock playing their senior season. I just feel like G would be entering based on his potential over what he has really done. While his junior year was amazing to follow (January on) that was about all we got to see from him other then the flashes he showed a couple times in his Sophomore year.

I think that we are agreeing. The reason I don't see G's stock falling like Josh's did is because G has proven that he is a great player. Josh just had potiential. Josh also lost Sheldon, J.J., Dockery among others, which I think affected his performance because he suddenly became the center and the main player (like Darren Collison). G is not losing anybody and isn't changing positions so the only way that he could do worse is if teams double team him every game or if his performance was a fluke (obviously that isn't true). So I think we are in agreement.

eddiehaskell
04-05-2009, 04:34 PM
If G could win the ACC player of the year and first team all-american, shouldn't he be a top-3 pick? He's not a Hansbrough type because he obviously has the gifts needed to play at the next level.

geraldsneighbor
04-05-2009, 04:53 PM
So is the general feeling amongst everyone that G is gone? I am starting I guess to accept it but still am a bit upset feeling that next year will now be a lost cause. Does anyone think the draftexpress report has a lot of validity? It had no sources or links which is odd and something to think about.

Without G I guess we go:
Insert PG here
Jon
E-Will
Singler
Insert Big Man here

FireOgilvie
04-05-2009, 06:11 PM
So is the general feeling amongst everyone that G is gone? I am starting I guess to accept it but still am a bit upset feeling that next year will now be a lost cause. Does anyone think the draftexpress report has a lot of validity? It had no sources or links which is odd and something to think about.

Without G I guess we go:
Insert PG here
Jon
E-Will
Singler
Insert Big Man here

I think he's gone, but next year definitely won't be a "lost cause." G is great, but I wouldn't be surprised if the overall team was just as good or better (especially if we land a PG). Elliot Williams and Nolan Smith will do a good job of filling in the gap, and everyone will be a year older. I also think we'll be much better on the inside with the addition of Mason Plumlee.

Icarus09
04-05-2009, 07:03 PM
I think he's gone, but next year definitely won't be a "lost cause." G is great, but I wouldn't be surprised if the overall team was just as good or better (especially if we land a PG). Elliot Williams and Nolan Smith will do a good job of filling in the gap, and everyone will be a year older. I also think we'll be much better on the inside with the addition of Mason Plumlee.

I agree. Plus, Zoubek seemed to be making good strides toward the end of the season. I think he'll be able to contribute in a bigger way and help ease some of our interior concerns.

dukestheheat
04-05-2009, 07:06 PM
So is the general feeling amongst everyone that G is gone? I am starting I guess to accept it but still am a bit upset feeling that next year will now be a lost cause. Does anyone think the draftexpress report has a lot of validity? It had no sources or links which is odd and something to think about.

Without G I guess we go:
Insert PG here
Jon
E-Will
Singler
Insert Big Man here

he declares to test the waters without hiring an agent and he comes back to Duke, to strenghten his game and his reputation. Remember, he really became a star at Duke only half-way through this year, his Junior season at Duke. He's not a big man who can fill the lane and get the rebounds and block the shots; he is a guard and the NBA is a dime-a-dozen with players at his size and skill level.

G comes back.

dth.

geraldsneighbor
04-05-2009, 07:18 PM
he declares to test the waters without hiring an agent and he comes back to Duke, to strenghten his game and his reputation. Remember, he really became a star at Duke only half-way through this year, his Junior season at Duke. He's not a big man who can fill the lane and get the rebounds and block the shots; he is a guard and the NBA is a dime-a-dozen with players at his size and skill level.

G comes back.

dth.

Is this a feeling you have? Perhaps a birdie in your head? haha I hope your right. I really do. I'm awfully nervous (much more then I was) with the draftexpress report of G preparing to hire an agent. I think he would be best suited to return to Duke for one more year.

YmoBeThere
04-05-2009, 07:27 PM
that next year will now be a lost cause.
Its only a lost cause if your expectation was NC/Final Four. Will they be able to get there without him if he were to leave? It's possible but much less likely. The team was good this year and should be better next year, but it is missing, at the moment, a Christian Laettner/Shane Battier type that will lead it to the Final Four/NC level.

dukestheheat
04-05-2009, 07:33 PM
Is this a feeling you have? Perhaps a birdie in your head? haha I hope your right. I really do. I'm awfully nervous (much more then I was) with the draftexpress report of G preparing to hire an agent. I think he would be best suited to return to Duke for one more year.

before the middle of this season, he was an average player for Duke; he exploded mid-way and up until Villanova he was money. The Draft express also says he's expected to (do so) hire an agent; this doesn't mean he will. I think he comes back after testing the waters. He can rise into the lottery pick after the same performance next year in college, which is precisely what I think will happen.

dth.

NYDukie
04-05-2009, 07:52 PM
I think he's gone, but next year definitely won't be a "lost cause." G is great, but I wouldn't be surprised if the overall team was just as good or better (especially if we land a PG). Elliot Williams and Nolan Smith will do a good job of filling in the gap, and everyone will be a year older. I also think we'll be much better on the inside with the addition of Mason Plumlee.

Don't think next year would be a lost cause but if G leaves there are a lot of "if's" to consider such as G actually leaving, Wall or Bledsoe coming, etc. Let's just assume the team stays as is as we currently know it and G leaves. If that is the case, the team would be in a precarious position. We would lack depth in the backcourt w/ only Scheyer, Nolan and Elliot with none of them a pure PG. Secondly, we would then not have a proven and reliable wing type player. I know we have good expectations of Nolan and Elliot but we would need one of them to take a G like leap. I think the better of the two to do this is Elliot but we would then be asking of this in his sophmore year and neither him nor Nolan showed or had as much promise as G after their freshman or sophmore years as G had in his. Lastly, there still would be the question of a post presence though Mason shows promise and again, its hoping a freshman provides this need.

I think overall we will be good, 25-28 wins but I don't think we woujld be nearly as good as this year's team. Just being realistic. Now if G stays and either Wall or Bledsoe come, then all bets off and top 5 team in the making.

Greg_Newton
04-06-2009, 01:08 AM
Secondly, we would then not have a proven and reliable wing type player.

Stay with me here... but if G leaves, I wonder if K would ever consider putting Thomas at the 3, and giving him a Danny Green like role. He can guard the 3, he's got a good shot, and he looked like he was pretty good with the ball in HS. Given we'll have Mason, Miles, Zoubs and Kelly all at 6-10 or better next year, it's not like we necessarily need him to be a big guy anymore. Plus, we wouldn't have anyone else in between Williams/Scheyer and Singler/Kelly size-wise, which is kind of strange. Most good teams have a legitimate small forward, and I think he's earned the chance to show off a little more of his game besides screen setting and offensive rebounding.

I can just see it now... Lance works tirelessly on his quickness and perimeter game all summer, and explodes with a huge senior year. Eh? Anybody?

Sighhh, I'm just trying to temper the potential disappointment that would come with losing both G and Wall. IF we could get Bledsoe AND Lance could emerge as a legitimate threat, a lineup of Bledsoe/Scheyer/Thomas/Singler/Mason with Elliot/Nolan/Zoubs/Miles/Kelly coming off the bench could still be a great team and a legit contender.

I just worry that without any huge off-season improvements and without Wall/G, we'll be an elite athlete or two short of being able to compete with the best teams. I love Kyle and Jon, and believe they could be crucial pieces to a great team next year... but they're sure going to need some help.

Bay Area Duke Fan
04-06-2009, 01:30 AM
Its only a lost cause if your expectation was NC/Final Four. Will they be able to get there without him if he were to leave? It's possible but much less likely. The team was good this year and should be better next year, but it is missing, at the moment, a Christian Laettner/Shane Battier type that will lead it to the Final Four/NC level.

I think that Singler can become "a Laettner type."

FireOgilvie
04-06-2009, 01:45 AM
Stay with me here... but if G leaves, I wonder if K would ever consider putting Thomas at the 3, and giving him a Danny Green like role. He can guard the 3, he's got a good shot, and he looked like he was pretty good with the ball in HS. Given we'll have Mason, Miles, Zoubs and Kelly all at 6-10 or better next year, it's not like we necessarily need him to be a big guy anymore. Plus, we wouldn't have anyone else in between Williams/Scheyer and Singler/Kelly size-wise, which is kind of strange. Most good teams have a legitimate small forward, and I think he's earned the chance to show off a little more of his game besides screen setting and offensive rebounding.

I can just see it now... Lance works tirelessly on his quickness and perimeter game all summer, and explodes with a huge senior year. Eh? Anybody?

Sighhh, I'm just trying to temper the potential disappointment that would come with losing both G and Wall. IF we could get Bledsoe AND Lance could emerge as a legitimate threat, a lineup of Bledsoe/Scheyer/Thomas/Singler/Mason with Elliot/Nolan/Zoubs/Miles/Kelly coming off the bench could still be a great team and a legit contender.

I just worry that without any huge off-season improvements and without Wall/G, we'll be an elite athlete or two short of being able to compete with the best teams. I love Kyle and Jon, and believe they could be crucial pieces to a great team next year... but they're sure going to need some help.

I hope Lance develops his offense, but I don't think he'll ever play the SF position on offense... although he can guard the opposing team's SF. He has a decent jumpshot from within 10 feet, but I'm pretty sure that if he had any kind of mid/long-range shot, we would have seen it before his senior year. I think we have Elliot, Singler, and R Kelly all ahead of Lance at the 3 position. Singler is a 3 in the NBA and Kelly looks like he would be as well. Kelly has a really nice shot and he's a surprisingly good ball-handler. Obviously, I would like to see G back next year so we don't have to worry about this.

NYDukie
04-06-2009, 08:24 AM
Stay with me here... but if G leaves, I wonder if K would ever consider putting Thomas at the 3, and giving him a Danny Green like role. He can guard the 3, he's got a good shot, and he looked like he was pretty good with the ball in HS. Given we'll have Mason, Miles, Zoubs and Kelly all at 6-10 or better next year, it's not like we necessarily need him to be a big guy anymore. Plus, we wouldn't have anyone else in between Williams/Scheyer and Singler/Kelly size-wise, which is kind of strange. Most good teams have a legitimate small forward, and I think he's earned the chance to show off a little more of his game besides screen setting and offensive rebounding.

I can just see it now... Lance works tirelessly on his quickness and perimeter game all summer, and explodes with a huge senior year. Eh? Anybody?

Sighhh, I'm just trying to temper the potential disappointment that would come with losing both G and Wall. IF we could get Bledsoe AND Lance could emerge as a legitimate threat, a lineup of Bledsoe/Scheyer/Thomas/Singler/Mason with Elliot/Nolan/Zoubs/Miles/Kelly coming off the bench could still be a great team and a legit contender.

I just worry that without any huge off-season improvements and without Wall/G, we'll be an elite athlete or two short of being able to compete with the best teams. I love Kyle and Jon, and believe they could be crucial pieces to a great team next year... but they're sure going to need some help.

Ahhhh, I appreciate the glass half full mentality, I really do. And don't get me wrong, no matter what scenario plays out for next year, and by reading the board since the Nova game there are many, I think the team will have a good year. It's hard to cry over or receive sympathy from others over 25-28 wins and a Sweet 16 finish or better. However, I am just trying to be realistic and unbiased in my opinion. I just feel that if G leaves it will open up another can of worms for the team. All teams have weaknesses, I understand that. I just see a upper classmen who has the potential to be a 20 pt and 6 reb type of dynamic wing player, borderline POY, who is a important cog in the Duke engine being tougher to replace and more important to the success to next year's season than what a freshman PG (i.e. Wall at best case scenario) or big man (i.e. Mason) would bring to the plate next year. Wall could come and be what he is all hyped up to be and Mason solid and it won't mean much if G isn't around to give the team that dynamic wing.

To get to where this team strives to be, this team, and any team for that matter that wins a NC, it must be good at all aspects of the game at bare minimum. Yes, there are exceptions but those are in the minority. And I just feel with G leaving that would be the biggest hole to plug.

That said, I don't advocate G staying if the opportunity is pretty certain that he would be drafted in the lottery or just outside of just for selfish reasons as a Duke fan and I wish him the best in any decision he makes.

Kdogg
04-06-2009, 10:57 AM
If G could win the ACC player of the year and first team all-american, shouldn't he be a top-3 pick?

Unfortunately, no. Post season awards do not guarantee future employment and/or success.

flyingdutchdevil
04-06-2009, 11:20 AM
Unfortunately, no. Post season awards do not guarantee future employment and/or success.

Also, the draft is 90% based on potential, 10% based on success and stats.

That's why Hanstravel is a borderline 2nd round pick - no one in college basketball has the resume he has, yet he won't be a high draft pick because he was little potential.

Also, Hanstravel is a good case study for G. Hanstravel was a guaranteed 1st round pick last year and it's an accepted fact that his stock has fallen. While G's stock is clearly higher than Hanstravel, there is more that can negatively happen than positively happen (ie, injury, shoting slumps, bad team chemistry) and thus destroy G's potential.
If I were G, I would enter the draft but not sign an agent so he can get a good idea of where he sits in the draft.

rotogod00
04-06-2009, 11:22 AM
Also, the draft is 90% based on potential, 10% based on success and stats.

That's why Hanstravel is a borderline 2nd round pick - no one in college basketball has the resume he has, yet he won't be a high draft pick because he was little potential.

Also, Hanstravel is a good case study for G. Hanstravel was a guaranteed 1st round pick last year and it's an accepted fact that his stock has fallen. While G's stock is clearly higher than Hanstravel, there is more that can negatively happen than positively happen (ie, injury, shoting slumps, bad team chemistry) and thus destroy G's potential.
If I were G, I would enter the draft but not sign an agent so he can get a good idea of where he sits in the draft.

you don't think developing a more consistent outside shot could bump up his stock? that's what's keeping him out of the top 10.

flyingdutchdevil
04-06-2009, 11:41 AM
you don't think developing a more consistent outside shot could bump up his stock? that's what's keeping him out of the top 10.

I've seen G go as high as 6 and as low as 22 (maybe even lower). I've seen a median of around 8-10. I think he would be a top 10, especially after scouts see how athletic he really is in Orlando.

Regarding the shot, he does need to improve it. And you're right, scouts are worried. But here's something interesting. Is there a senior in this year's draft who's potentially in the top 10? I think Eric Maynor is the highest ranked senior, and he's late late lottery / middle of the draft.

Also, last year, there was only one player, Jason Thompson, who was a senior. I'm not saying that returning for your senior year won't improve your draft stock, but it's harder and rarer (I know, I know....JJ and Shelden did, but they were in the perfect situation). Staying longer leads to more scouts picking apart your game, which is very risky. Look at Hanstravel.

rotogod00
04-06-2009, 11:49 AM
I've seen G go as high as 6 and as low as 22 (maybe even lower). I've seen a median of around 8-10. I think he would be a top 10, especially after scouts see how athletic he really is in Orlando.

Regarding the shot, he does need to improve it. And you're right, scouts are worried. But here's something interesting. Is there a senior in this year's draft who's potentially in the top 10? I think Eric Maynor is the highest ranked senior, and he's late late lottery / middle of the draft.

Also, last year, there was only one player, Jason Thompson, who was a senior. I'm not saying that returning for your senior year won't improve your draft stock, but it's harder and rarer (I know, I know....JJ and Shelden did, but they were in the perfect situation). Staying longer leads to more scouts picking apart your game, which is very risky. Look at Hanstravel.

"Staying longer leads to more scouts picking apart your game, which is very risky."

This is true (a perfect example is hansborough. he couldn't improve his lack of PF height and poor athleticism), unless there is something you truly can improve.

Just a snippit from Chad Ford:
"Henderson did a lot to resurrect his draft stock during the second half of the season. He was aggressive, shot the lights out and proved that he had the combination of size, athleticism and skill to be a legit starting guard in the pros. However, all of that came crashing down a bit in the tournament -- Henderson shot 11-for-44 from the field, went 1-for-11 from 3 and came up completely empty against Villanova with a 1-for-14 performance. Immediately after the game, the Henderson doubters were back out in full force questioning his ability to be a top-tier shooting guard in the NBA. "I think his defensive ability and his basketball IQ will allow him to stick in the pros," said one NBA GM. "But what's the difference between him and Dahntay Jones?" We have had Henderson in the mid-first round for the past two months and still think he'll go somewhere between 13 and 22. I know a few draft prognosticators have been talking about Henderson as a Top 5 pick -- it only takes one GM to love him that high -- however, Billy Knight won't be making any picks this year, and the GMs I've spoken with don't have him close to that high."

Kewlswim
04-06-2009, 11:54 AM
Hi,

How do we know G isn't into Duke and likes being a college kid? How do we know he isn't having the time of his life with Jon as his roomie? How do we know that G's dad isn't saying to him, "Son, the NBA is a job, enjoy college as long as you can?" The answer is we just don't know. Everything right now is based on rumor, innuendo, and speculation. If I had the opportunity to be a lottery pick there is probably no way I would stay in school and go "rah-rah" when so much money is on the table. However, I didn't come from a rich family--perhaps G's thought process is different.

As far as G's last game against Villanova goes, I don't think he was feeling well. Since Duke never uses excuses we will probably never know. However, I saw him come over to the bench during warm-ups, sit down, and get some water. It was unusual that he was sitting out much of the warm-ups. I remember thinking, "This does not look good." Though I wasn't there for other NCAA games and maybe he sat out those warm-ups too.

Unlike a number of players most notably in my mind Luol, it feels really great to have had the chance to see G in a Duke uniform for three and maybe four years. What a treat. Thanks for choosing Duke Mr. Henderson! I really enjoyed watching you play and feel like I got a chance to get to know you, unlike so many players who up and go so quickly.:)

GO DUKE!

flyingdutchdevil
04-06-2009, 11:54 AM
"Staying longer leads to more scouts picking apart your game, which is very risky."

This is true (a perfect example is hansborough. he couldn't improve his lack of PF height and poor athleticism), unless there is something you truly can improve.

Just a snippit from Chad Ford:
"Henderson did a lot to resurrect his draft stock during the second half of the season. He was aggressive, shot the lights out and proved that he had the combination of size, athleticism and skill to be a legit starting guard in the pros. However, all of that came crashing down a bit in the tournament -- Henderson shot 11-for-44 from the field, went 1-for-11 from 3 and came up completely empty against Villanova with a 1-for-14 performance. Immediately after the game, the Henderson doubters were back out in full force questioning his ability to be a top-tier shooting guard in the NBA. "I think his defensive ability and his basketball IQ will allow him to stick in the pros," said one NBA GM. "But what's the difference between him and Dahntay Jones?" We have had Henderson in the mid-first round for the past two months and still think he'll go somewhere between 13 and 22. I know a few draft prognosticators have been talking about Henderson as a Top 5 pick -- it only takes one GM to love him that high -- however, Billy Knight won't be making any picks this year, and the GMs I've spoken with don't have him close to that high."

Chad Ford has a history of hating Duke playes ;)

Do you think G shouldn't test the waters? Wouldn't that be the smart thing to do? See where you are, what you really need to improve on, etc. Do I personally think G is ready for the NBA? No. But how many top 10, even top 20 picks are ready? The draft is based primarily on potential, and G has that

Matches
04-06-2009, 11:56 AM
He has absolutely nothing to lose by testing the waters. Once he figures out where he's likely to be drafted (which isn't possible right now), he can make an informed decision.

rotogod00
04-06-2009, 11:58 AM
Chad Ford has a history of hating Duke playes ;)

Do you think G shouldn't test the waters? Wouldn't that be the smart thing to do? See where you are, what you really need to improve on, etc. Do I personally think G is ready for the NBA? No. But how many top 10, even top 20 picks are ready? The draft is based primarily on potential, and G has that

of course he should test the waters. and if he gets enough feedback to think he's a lottery pick (esp. top 10), he SHOULD go.

UrinalCake
04-06-2009, 12:16 PM
Reasons G Should Stay, Tell me if you can think of any more?$

That all sounds good, but honestly those are reasons why WE want him to stay, not reasons why he himself should stay. Also, to suggest that Duke is a preseason #1 next year or even top 5 with Henderson coming back is absolute insanity. You didn't even mention UNC in your list of other top teams and I don't see them dropping off that much next year if at all. MAYBE if G and Wall are both here we could think about being in that elite range but there are a lot of other great teams out there too.

CDu
04-06-2009, 12:47 PM
That all sounds good, but honestly those are reasons why WE want him to stay, not reasons why he himself should stay. Also, to suggest that Duke is a preseason #1 next year or even top 5 with Henderson coming back is absolute insanity. You didn't even mention UNC in your list of other top teams and I don't see them dropping off that much next year if at all. MAYBE if G and Wall are both here we could think about being in that elite range but there are a lot of other great teams out there too.

You don't see UNC dropping off that much? They will lose Lawson, Green, Hansbrough, and Frasor for sure, and very possibly Ellington as well. But the most important of those is Lawson. Without him, they don't have the engine.

That's not to say they won't be really good next year. But this year they were unequivocally among the top 2-3 teams, and it's hard to make a strong argument that they weren't the very best team. If Ellington goes, then next year they'll have:

PG Drew (inexperienced, only a decent talent to begin with)
SG Strickland (freshman)
SF Ginyard (no offensive game)
PF Davis (the best player on that team)
C Thompson (soft)

With a bench of:
G McDonald
F Henson
C Zeller
F/C Wear
F/C Wear

They'll be very deep up front, but that's a lot of inexperience and a lack of top-tier backcourt play. They'll still be really good, but without Lawson they won't be nearly as good. UNLESS, they happen to get Wall.

Icarus09
04-06-2009, 02:10 PM
Chad Ford has a history of hating Duke playes ;)

Do you think G shouldn't test the waters? Wouldn't that be the smart thing to do? See where you are, what you really need to improve on, etc. Do I personally think G is ready for the NBA? No. But how many top 10, even top 20 picks are ready? The draft is based primarily on potential, and G has that

If he is smart he'll test the waters. Interviews with his dad before this pointed to the fact that G has always wanted to go to the NBA. Ford is over-dramatizing the Villanova game. Players have bad games, that doesn't mean their potential has changed. Sure, he could improve by coming back. He still needs to improve his left-handed drive (read:have a left-handed drive) and shoot the three ball. But, if reports are anywhere near accurate that he could potentially be a lottery pick (and make some 10 million more than a non-lottery pick over a period of a few years), why wouldn't he at least see where he might end up? And, as others have said, there's no guarantee that Duke will be a national title contender next year if he stays. They'll be good, yes. Better than UNC, I would think so with him. But, not necessarily a team that we'll be able to survive a series of games in the NCAA tournament (will we be able to become less independent on the 3s and more balanced?).

UrinalCake
04-06-2009, 02:31 PM
Is there a good reason to officially declare well before the deadline, other than to satisfy fan curiosity?

A lot of guys will stop taking classes once they make up their mind to go, since they're not going to graduate anyways and there's no reason to maintain eligibility. Now I have no idea whether G plans to graduate early or intends to come back at a later time and get his degree, so I'm not saying he's doing this, but it is one reason to make up your mind sooner.

Putting your name in while leaving open the possibility of coming back imposes some additional challenges - you don't have as much time free time to work out as the people you're going to be up against in the pre-draft workouts, you have to pay your own way (though I think there are some recent rules changes regarding reimbursement for these expenses) and you don't have an agent to help you sort through the process.

AtlDuke72
04-06-2009, 02:38 PM
[QUOTE=flyingdutchdevil;283459]
Also, Hanstravel is a good case study for G. Hanstravel was a guaranteed 1st round pick last year and it's an accepted fact that his stock has fallen. While G's stock is clearly higher than Hanstravel, there is more that can negatively happen than positively happen (ie, injury, shoting slumps, bad team chemistry) and thus destroy G's potential.

I disagree. At the moment Henderson looks like about the 15th pick. Obviously, he needs to get a handle on that which he can do by not signing with an agent and going through the process. As I understand it this picks will get about $10 million less in the first 3 years than a top 5 pick. He has improved tremendously but still has a long way to go with regard to showing he can be consistent, go to his left, cutting down turn overs and improving his ball handling. He is so talented that I think he will greatly improve his position by playing another year. If he does, how could he not go in the top few picks? In the long run I also think he will have a much better career by improving now rather than hoping that will happen once he is in the NBA. Seems like it is really hard to improve if you are sitting at the end of the bench. As I recall he really did not get an off season to improve last year due to his wrist injury so there is no telling how much better he can be with an off season to improve and one more year.

AtlDuke72
04-06-2009, 02:48 PM
[QUOTE=UrinalCake;283499] . . . I don't see them (UNC) dropping off that much next year if at all.

Next year Thompson will be the only returning starter. He should be better as a senior. Their other starters will likely be:

Drew, Strickland, Ginyard and Davis.

Compare that to this year's other starters:

Lawson, Ellington, Green and Hansborough.

Who would you bet on in a 4 on 4 game?

arnie
04-06-2009, 02:58 PM
[QUOTE=UrinalCake;283499] . . . I don't see them (UNC) dropping off that much next year if at all.

Next year Thompson will be the only returning starter. He should be better as a senior. Their other starters will likely be:

Drew, Strickland, Ginyard and Davis.

Compare that to this year's other starters:

Lawson, Ellington, Green and Hansborough.

Who would you bet on in a 4 on 4 game?

Carolina will not be as good next year, but the bigger question is "Will they be better than Duke". If G leaves, they might be better with a lot more post presence than Duke and fairly solid at all positions, save point. I don't think we have that balance, at least not yet.

Icarus09
04-06-2009, 03:06 PM
[QUOTE=AtlDuke72;283589]

Carolina will not be as good next year, but the bigger question is "Will they be better than Duke". If G leaves, they might be better with a lot more post presence than Duke and fairly solid at all positions, save point. I don't think we have that balance, at least not yet.

Even if Ellington comes back, we should be able to beat them. If G leaves we're still going to return 4 starters and hopefully have a new point guard. Everyone will be a year older, and this coming from a group that has a lot of experience compared to next year's Tar Holes.

kramerbr
04-06-2009, 03:13 PM
You don't see UNC dropping off that much? They will lose Lawson, Green, Hansbrough, and Frasor for sure, and very possibly Ellington as well. But the most important of those is Lawson. Without him, they don't have the engine.

That's not to say they won't be really good next year. But this year they were unequivocally among the top 2-3 teams, and it's hard to make a strong argument that they weren't the very best team. If Ellington goes, then next year they'll have:

PG Drew (inexperienced, only a decent talent to begin with)
SG Strickland (freshman)
SF Ginyard (no offensive game)
PF Davis (the best player on that team)
C Thompson (soft)

With a bench of:
G McDonald
F Henson
C Zeller
F/C Wear
F/C Wear

They'll be very deep up front, but that's a lot of inexperience and a lack of top-tier backcourt play. They'll still be really good, but without Lawson they won't be nearly as good. UNLESS, they happen to get Wall.

I will be very surprised if Henson isn't starting next year. After Davis, he could be the best player on that team.

gumbomoop
04-06-2009, 03:34 PM
[QUOTE=arnie is still king;283594]

Even if Ellington comes back, we should be able to beat them. If G leaves we're still going to return 4 starters and hopefully have a new point guard. Everyone will be a year older, and this coming from a group that has a lot of experience compared to next year's Tar Holes.

I'm guessing both Duke and UNC will be preseason top 5 [with, I guess, Mich St, Nova, Kansas, 'Cuse???], even if G and Ellington leave, and even if Wall matriculates at neither school. UNC will have powerful depth at 4-5 spots, Ginyard back. Duke returns conf POY favorite Singler, court-savvy Scheyer, solid frosh contributors, and improving Nolan and EWill. Absent Wall, I'm predicting [with months to refine said prediction] that Nolan and EWill must, and will, improve significantly. They need to play like stars, and both can. Will they? We'll all know, if not nearly soon enough.

geraldsneighbor
04-06-2009, 05:04 PM
[QUOTE=Icarus09;283599]

I'm guessing both Duke and UNC will be preseason top 5 [with, I guess, Mich St, Nova, Kansas, 'Cuse???], even if G and Ellington leave, and even if Wall matriculates at neither school. UNC will have powerful depth at 4-5 spots, Ginyard back. Duke returns conf POY favorite Singler, court-savvy Scheyer, solid frosh contributors, and improving Nolan and EWill. Absent Wall, I'm predicting [with months to refine said prediction] that Nolan and EWill must, and will, improve significantly. They need to play like stars, and both can. Will they? We'll all know, if not nearly soon enough.

I think if Nolan is given a chance to play as a wing a whole season he can improve significantly. If we get a PG I'd move Scheyer to the 3 being he is 6-5 and Nolan is 6-2. I think that is still a fairly strong line-up with the chance to bring in Eliot off the bench.

CDu
04-06-2009, 05:09 PM
I will be very surprised if Henson isn't starting next year. After Davis, he could be the best player on that team.

I don't disagree on your talent assessment, but I don't think talent will be the deciding factor. Remember: Davis was the second-best big man on this year's team, and he didn't start. Marvin Williams was better than Jawad Williams in 2005, and he didn't start.

Ole Roy tends to defer to the veterans for starting spots. Henson will certainly get his minutes (I think Zeller and the Wear twins will have their minutes suffer), but I think he'll come off the bench next year.

dubayuw
04-06-2009, 05:14 PM
I was reading the forums over at rivals.com's duke website(i think its called duke illustrated or something) and it doesn't sound good. They made it sound as if G is on the verge of getting an agent. I hope he stays, we could really have a great team with him, but it doesn't sound good.

FireOgilvie
04-06-2009, 05:26 PM
I don't disagree on your talent assessment, but I don't think talent will be the deciding factor. Remember: Davis was the second-best big man on this year's team, and he didn't start. Marvin Williams was better than Jawad Williams in 2005, and he didn't start.

Ole Roy tends to defer to the veterans for starting spots. Henson will certainly get his minutes (I think Zeller and the Wear twins will have their minutes suffer), but I think he'll come off the bench next year.

Henson is a 3. He's definitely going to start. If Ellington leaves (I think he will), Henson will be their leading scorer. Also, I think if they win tonight that Davis will leave as well.

ice-9
04-06-2009, 06:08 PM
Isn't Davis a projected top 10 pick? I think he's a goner regardless of what happens tonight.

As long as UNC doesn't have Lawson or Wall next year, we can beat them. I'm not saying we will, but we certainly have the capability.

geraldsneighbor
04-06-2009, 07:59 PM
Isn't Davis a projected top 10 pick? I think he's a goner regardless of what happens tonight.

As long as UNC doesn't have Lawson or Wall next year, we can beat them. I'm not saying we will, but we certainly have the capability.


I think we saw without Lawson they aren't half of the team they are with him. Losing Hansbrough with the front court depth they have even if Davis leaves isn't a big deal. Hopefully things are going to start swinging our way with a commitment here late and maybe Hendo does stick around. One can dream...

arnie
04-06-2009, 10:31 PM
I think we saw without Lawson they aren't half of the team they are with him. Losing Hansbrough with the front court depth they have even if Davis leaves isn't a big deal. Hopefully things are going to start swinging our way with a commitment here late and maybe Hendo does stick around. One can dream...

It's a good dream, but I don't see it. Ole Roy is bringing in who he really needs at all positions; we're bringing in solid players, but not at all positions. Until we can find a post player or 2 with some bulk to match up, I don't see us advancing further than them. If G doesn't leave, we've got a shot next year, but I don't see him staying.

geraldsneighbor
04-06-2009, 10:41 PM
I don't see him staying in all honesty being Ellington will probably declare before his jersey is even out of the washer. We will learn a lot very soon how thing will shake out.

soccerstud2210
04-06-2009, 10:56 PM
Isn't Davis a projected top 10 pick? I think he's a goner regardless of what happens tonight.

As long as UNC doesn't have Lawson or Wall next year, we can beat them. I'm not saying we will, but we certainly have the capability.

do you think that thompson will leave as well?

ice-9
04-06-2009, 11:10 PM
do you think that thompson will leave as well?

I don't know...could happen, but doubt it. I think he's outside the lottery and an extra year of being the featured post could bring him in it.

geraldsneighbor
04-06-2009, 11:15 PM
I don't know...could happen, but doubt it. I think he's outside the lottery and an extra year of being the featured post could bring him in it.

I sort of think he might get Taurean Green disease and realize there won't be anyone back like Florida in 07. Green wasn't ready but he didn't want to play a senior year in the NIT. (although they had 2 PG's in Lucas and Calathes coming in) Thompson could use another year but I'd put him at 50-50. Hes probably better then Dante Cunningham.

UrinalCake
04-06-2009, 11:52 PM
Also, Hanstravel is a good case study for G..

I'm hoping he instead follows the path of Lawson. He could have been a mid-to-late first round pick last year but there were some holes in his game that needed to be addressed. Coming back allowed him to address those issues and make him into a lottery pick, and along the way he got a national title to boot. Hope G does the same!

geraldsneighbor
04-07-2009, 12:35 AM
Yahoo Sports is reporting Jodie Meeks has declared for the upcoming draft but will not hire an agent.

BlueintheFace
04-07-2009, 01:24 AM
Right now G is that ex-girlfriend/boyfriend you promised yourself you wouldn't obsess over or think about because, come on, that ship has sailed. It was a great run, but he/she saw greener pastures.

But the Carolina game was every depressing chick flick and/or emotional trigger that sends me into that deep lonely depression. It makes me feel weak and desperate. So I am going to say those words you should never say...

G, I want you back.

El_Diablo
04-07-2009, 08:21 AM
Isn't Davis a projected top 10 pick? I think he's a goner regardless of what happens tonight.

As long as UNC doesn't have Lawson or Wall next year, we can beat them. I'm not saying we will, but we certainly have the capability.

Ed Davis is coming back:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=4048617

KShip21
04-07-2009, 08:44 AM
I'm hoping the only positive that comes out of last night's game is that G's best friend and biggest rival now has a NC, and this eats at him and makes him stay around another year to try and get it. I know it is wishful thinking, but him seeing his best friend experience it may make him think about coming back that much more......

K-Duke
04-07-2009, 09:20 AM
Ed Davis is coming back:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=4048617

ugh... any good news out there? anybody?