How We Beat Villanova

[Jumbo]

Deliver The First Blow
Villanova might not be big, but they're strong and tough, and they're going to look to attack. But this Duke team isn't soft. And the guys need to prove that right away. So, go at right at their guards. If someone has an easy layup, it's worth a hard foul. Duke needs to let Villanova know right away that they won't be able to punk us the way they did UCLA. Winning that battle early in the game will be huge for both teams' attitudes.

Help! (And Recover)
By now, it should be clear to everyone that A) Villanova wants to spread and drive against everyone; B) That's generally the way teams attack Duke; and C) Texas was successful with that strategy in the second round. But even if Duke plays its man D as tight as usual, the help can be better and quicker. Everyone needs to talk really well, cut off the lane quickly and then recover and rotate in anticipation of the kickout pass. This is critical, because Villanova is a solid three-point shooting team (although they can be streaky). Duke can't give them a bunch of wide-open looks off kickouts. That's where the recovery part of the equation has to be in top form.

Force Reynolds To Over-Dribble
On the other hand, there's some value to allowing Villanova to spread the floor (and not countering with a sagging man-to-man or even some bits of zone). Scottie Reynolds will, occasionally, dribble too much and force too much action. When that happens, Villanova can be turnover prone. And if Nova turns the ball over more than usual, that bodes very well for Duke. So, we need to find a way to tempt Reynolds into becoming his own worst enemy.

Go To The Hoop -- Hard
Dante Cunningham is the only Nova player who remotely resembles a shot-blocker. Yes, Villanova's perimeter players are long, quick and strong. But Kyle and G can still post them up and beat them off the bounce, with the goal of getting to the rim. And they won't encounter many obstacles when they get there. Also, Scheyer hasn't attacked as much as earlier in the year, but we know that he's quite adept at getting into the lane, drawing contact and getting to the foul line. Villanova wants to spread and drive on Duke? Great, our guys will bring that style right back at them.

More McClure
As I mentioned in the recap of Phase VI, there are "Zoubek Games" and there are "McClure Games." This is the textbook McClure game. Villanova is small and quick, and it's not like we're going to look for Zoubek on the block. Meanwhile, he'll have a lot of trouble guarding Cunningham. So, I don't expect him to see more than spot minutes, unless Duke is in serious foul trouble. McClure, on the other hand, is the perfect counter to what Villanova does well. He's a terrific on-ball and help defender. He lets Duke switch all screens. He's an excellent offensive rebounder. The lineup with Kyle at the 5 and Dave at the 4 has been quite effective all year. I think Dave needs to play a critical role for Duke to win, and he should be up to the task.

Be Opportunistic, But Not Reckless
For Elliot Williams, that means taking advantage of smaller gurds by crashing the offensive glass ... but not at the expense of transition D. For Jon Scheyer, that means taking a smaller guard off the ball, working him through screens and looking to catch and score closer to the hoop. (Can we run that double screen for the quick curl that he used so successfully against UNC at Cameron?) For Lance Thomas, that means anticipating the way Cunningham likes to pick and pop and cheating a bit when he hedges, trying to get a hand on the pass. And so forth. Villanova does a lot of things well, but their players can be mistake-prone and out of control at times, which opens up opportunities for Duke. We have to capitalize on them.

Take Care of the Ball
Duke has done this extremely well of late, and that has to continue. If you limit turnovers, you limit Villanova's runouts. If you limit their runouts, you force them to execute in the half-court, against a set defense that should be well-schooled by now in defending against their spread attack. Duke needs to be the team that gets more freebies.

Be Aggressive, But Unselfish
This applies mostly to Gerald and Kyle. Neither guy was afraid to shoot against Texas. That's a good thing. But both guys -- especially G -- are prone to forcing shots early in the clock. That's not necessary, especially since G can get his fadeaway off whenever he wants. They need to be aware of their teammates, look to kick the ball and trust that they'll get it back with a better chance to score, eventually. So, they need to keep attacking, but their shot selection needs to be smart. Duke can't afford to waste possessions.

Play Loose, Play Free, Play Confidently
This team won an ACC title. It has already won 30 games. It just got over the first-weekend hump. The guys should be feeling great about themselves. That doesn't mean they should be content with reaching this point -- if anything, they should be hungrier than ever. But it does mean they need to stop putting so much pressure on themselves, and instead simply believe in all they've done already and all they know they can do going forward. They have what it takes to keep advancing, and they should know that by now.

Go Duke!

[watzone]

The guys are not content, but as you have alluded to, the team which plays together and makes the least mistakes will win. It is important for Duke to hang in there from the start and not play from behind.

FWIW, this 'Nova senior class has the most victories of any class in their schools history at 100-36.

I find it interesting that Villanova has no bad losses. Texas, early in the season, Marquette, Louisville, UConn, West Virginia, Georgetown and Lousiville again.

Okay, maybe G'Town is a bad loss and they were blown out at WVU, but so was Duke at Clemson.

Corey Fisher off the bench worries me. He has that Bronx city moxie. In fact, all of the top seven players who play are from large cities.

It looks like an evenly matched nail biter on paper. I see that Vegas has Duke listed at a 2 point favorite which has lowered due to moola coming in on the Cats. I'm not a gambler, but do enjoy the lines for entertainment purposes.

[chi]

Duke Needs Focus Thursday Versus Villanova to Proceed in Final Four Run (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/144494-duke-needs-focus-thursday-versus-villanova-to-proceed-in-final-four-run)

[BlueintheFace]

Huge key, whether we want it to be or not... TAKE THE CHARGE.

...God, I hope the refs call the charge when they see it. I've seen them swallowing those whistles all tourney long.

[chi]

East matchup: No. 2 Duke vs. No. 3 Villanova (http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=531179)

[pfrduke]

Huge key, whether we want it to be or not... TAKE THE CHARGE.

...God, I hope the refs call the charge when they see it. I've seen them swallowing those whistles all tourney long.

I'm sure Jay Wright has scouted for this, and noticed that guards who can shoot the 8-10 foot runners in the lane have a lot of success (because they usually stop short of the charge). Teague and Smith killed us with these during the second half of our win over Wake. I haven't watched Villanova enough to know whether this kind of shot is in their guards' repertoire, but if it is, that could be a troublesome development.

I think turning them over will be key (and obviously, drawing charges if and when the opportunity presents itself is a good way to create turnovers). In all but one of their losses, they've coughed the ball up 20% or more. Duke's forced 8 of their last 12 opponents to turn it over that frequently. If they can get Villanova +20% on Thursday, that'll be a good head start.

[weezie]

Truly, after watching some of their games, our lock down defense is better. It's the touch fouls that might be a problem if the refs are slow.

[jv001]

This is something we have been good at this season and I expect it to continue against Nova. Jumbo makes a good point in that Dave McClure will probably get most of Zoubs mins in this one. Dave could be key to winning the rebounding battle. I look for a game similar to the Texas game with each team having mini spurts but no one breaking away for a blow out. So I say Duke wins 74-70. Go Duke!

[DUKIE V(A)]

Nice Jumbo...I especially like the idea of Duke playing loose and aggressive. I've got a feeling that intelligent aggression will win the day. I really like our chances in this one (and I have enormous respect for the Villanova players and program).

[Reddevil]

'Nova likes to press after scoring.....like Clemson. This scares me. The "new" line up may help, but not as much as K and the staff having a week to prepare. I love it when Duke comes out with incredible intensity, and knocks the other team back right away. Both teams are going to be focused though. Man, this is going to be tough - for both teams. I really look forward to seeing how the staff and team choose to defend and attack. I think Jon is going to have to work hard on splitting double teams in the backcourt, and get some help. If they beat the press early, and take it out of play, they can really tilt the balance of the game. We should find out in the first 4 minutes.

[blueprofessor]

http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/9373220/Ranking-the-Sweet-16-teams-by-point-guards

Jon Scheyer very much a key....

Best--Blueprof :)

[BlueDevilBaby]

So I turn on M&M this morning in the middle of someone who is obviously a coach talking about a team that is tough, plays 40 minutes, plays intelligently, executes and plays tremendous help defense. I thought that must be Coach Wright talking about our guys. Sure 'nough was. Think he about summed it up wright there.;)

I am nervous about this game just because Nova looked so darn good against UCLA, but Duke plays much, much better defense even when spread out. Nova won't get the easy buckets in transition. I hope for the reverse with Nolan and Williams helping to break the press and maybe getting some easy baskets from doing so.

[roywhite]

http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/9373220/Ranking-the-Sweet-16-teams-by-point-guards

Jon Scheyer very much a key....

Best--Blueprof :)

It's an interesting topic, but when the writer ranks Duke 13th out of 16 in regards to PG play, I have to wonder how much he has seen us play lately. Jon Scheyer, now backed up by a rejuvenated (and talented) Nolan Smith has been giving us excellent play at PG. Our turnover margin is outstanding; we force turnovers, but don't commit many; in addition, Scheyer is averaging over 19 pts a game since the lineup change, shooting well from 3-pt and getting to the line frequently.

Villanova has good guards, but it's not like Scheyer hasn't been tested, by teams such as Wake, Florida State, and Texas.

[6th Man]

First of all I have not watched Villanova play this year so I don't know what kind of shooting team they are. However we do know they love to spread you out and drive which makes an overplaying man to man defense have to really work. I am sure Villanova has worked all week on how to handle Duke's man to man overplaying D. For arguements sake, what if Duke threw a curveball and started out in a zone just to throw them off everything they have probably prepared for? It'll never happen I know, but it would be interesting. Again I haven't seen them play and they may be a good 3-point shooting team so the zone might be ineffective.

I do agree that the first few minutes will be important. Would love to see Duke establish an aggressive opening and build an early lead. I'm nervous and excited about this game. Should be entertaining!

[marcoVU]

6th, if Duke threw the zone at us, it really wouldn't be an issue for a few reasons.

1) We play Syracuse at least once a year (this year twice) and they utilize the zone very well. So we have seen zones throughout the year from Syracuse and other teams that play it sometimes.

2) Our 3 point shooting is about average, at 36.5%, but that number is deceiving. Villanova is a streaky shooting team from beyond the arc. We can be very hot and near impossible to defend or struggle painfully when we get into games that are shooting displays. The way we usually beat the zone is to get right in the middle by feeding Cunningham, Anderson, Clark or Stokes. This way if the defense collapses, they can kick out for a shot.

You are also right about the first few minutes are going to be in important in setting the tempo for the game. It'll be great game to watch and a horribly nauseating one at the same time.

[mus074]

Long time since I posted. As some may remember, I am a Pomeroy (http://kenpom.com/rate.php) disciple, not as to ratings, but the deeper data.

According to kenpom.com, Duke's offensive effectiveness (http://kenpom.com/expsked.php?team=Duke) is highly correlated to its ability to avoid TO's and create them on the other side. Duke's defensive effectiveness is even more highly correlated to its ability to rebound on both ends of the floor.

Villanova is so-so (http://kenpom.com/team.php?y=2009&team=Villanova) at best in regards to TO's (81st for O and 91st for D) and is a bit better than that on rebounding (53rd for O and 55th for D). So Villanova does not appear to create a match up problem for Duke's keys.

Villanova's offensive effectiveness (http://kenpom.com/expsked.php?team=Villanova) is correlated very highly to its offensive TO's. Duke is very good (http://kenpom.com/team.php?y=2009&team=Duke) (ranking 24th) at creating TO's. Villanova's defense is correlated to its defensive rebounding and creating TO's. Duke is very good at offensive rebounding (27th) and not allowing offensive TO's (22nd).

Duke appears to create match up problems for Villanova's keys.

Also of note, Majerus says both teams are perimeter-oriented three-point teams. Not true. Both are guard-reliant, but neither is too dependent upon 3's. Duke gets 27.9% of its points from 3's (ranking 150th) and Villanova gets 25.8% (221st). Notably, Villanova gets 23.7% of its pts from FTs, ranking 23rd.

Majerus also says both have good offenses and Duke's defense is a bit better. Again, that's not what the stats say. Duke's offense ranks 5th in efficiency and Villanova's ranks 21st. Duke's defense ranks 20th and Villanova's 19th.

It is also worth noting that back in January, before Duke hit the skids and reinvented itself, Duke's defense was ranked nos. 1-3 while its offense was in the 20's. The lineup tinkering has catapulted our offense to top-notch status, even including the mid-seasonswoon. Duke's offense with Scheyer at the wheel is a finely tuned machine. However, the inverse defensive decline is a bit concerning. Duke will need to work on its defensive rebounding (ranked 177th) while continuing to pressure for TOs if it is going to see K get another Final Four appearance.

Finally, while I discount Pomeroy's overall ranking system, I do notice that Villanova is the best team Duke has faced this year outside of UNC. Make no mistake about it, this next game will be a major test.

[juise]

Finally, while I discount Pomeroy's overall ranking system, I do notice that Villanova is the best team Duke has faced this year outside of UNC. Make no mistake about it, this next game will be a major test.

Good overall analysis about the story the stats tell, but this last part isn't exactly true. Ken has Nova rated 18th and Purdue, who Duke throttled, is 17th. (Not too far behind Nova are Xavier at 20, Wake at 24, and Georgetown at 26.) I agree that the game will be a huge test, though.

[mus074]

You are correct, and I saw that after I posted. But I heavily discount December performance from March projections. (So the XU throttling is also of marginal benefit to the comparison analysis.)

[BlueDvl817]

Very good points, Jumbo. I love G, but I can't tell you how angry it makes me when he forces a bad shot early in the shot clock instead of working the ball around or taking it hard to the basket.

He also seems to always want the ball in his hands at the ends of halves and games, which is certainly not a bad thing (see the BC game in the ACC Tourney), but the opposing defenses will often double down on him knowing he will want to take the shot no matter what. In these situations he needs to be aware of where the rest of the guys are, and look to dish it out to Jon and Nolan on the perimeter or feed it inside for an easy bucket if such an opportunity presents itself.

Another bad habit he has that annoys me is when he sometimes gets an open look from beyond the arc and he decides instead to step inside one or two feet and pull up for the jumper. When I was younger and played basketball, I was a guard who specialized in hitting outside shots, and I was taught it was a cardinal sin to pass up an open 3 for an only slightly closer 2-point jumper. Still, almost every time he does this he nails the shot, so maybe he's on to something.

These are my only big complaints with G's game. He's going to be the most athletic player out there tomorrow night. I think we'll have a good chance if G, Kyle, Jon and Nolan play aggressive and don't settle for poor shots, if Elliot and Nolan lock down the drive, and if Dave continues to do all the little things that help us win close games.

[Owen Meany]

Deliver The First Blow
Villanova might not be big, but they're strong and tough, and they're going to look to attack. But this Duke team isn't soft. And the guys need to prove that right away. So, go at right at their guards. If someone has an easy layup, it's worth a hard foul. Duke needs to let Villanova know right away that they won't be able to punk us the way they did UCLA. Winning that battle early in the game will be huge for both teams' attitudes.


Go Duke!

I missed the Nova/UCLA game, but from what I've read it seems very clear that Villanova intends to come out and push the limits of physicality as far as the referees allow. If the Duke coaches feel they would benefit from a close called game (as I have seen stated repeatedly) - I feel they can get one. Perhaps not by Coach K working the refs, etc (although I'd certainly try).

I think the players could accomplish this with the first couple of physical shots they take. With the very first overly physical foul Nova makes, I'd like to see a Duke player jump quickly to their feet and stand chest to chest with the Nova player. Nothing more. With the first quick movement the refs will jump in between the 2 players to ensure things don't get out of hand. I think there's at least a 75% probability that the game is called tighter after that, and that "message" fouls are likely rewarded with a technical as the refs assert control of the game. If not, a second incident will almost surely do the trick. It will also most likely throw off the Nova players, who are coming in with the intent to hammer Duke - since they know the refs will be looking to "keep things under control" by cleaning up the rough stuff. I may be over simplifying this, but I've seen it in countless games over the years. I really think it will work. It also establishes that Duke will not back down.

The problem with this is that is inconsistent with Coach K's philosophy. Has anyone noticed that the Duke players seem to purposely ignore the vast majority of rough stuff thrown their way? I've seen Singler take many a shot and get up and act like nothing happened. I think this is intentional - their way of saying "Oh, you gave me a shot/got rough etc? I didn't notice." I think this stems from Coach K and is a philosophy that you show no weakness (ex. not talking about injuries). Many times I've heard Coach K say a game was hard fought but clean even when it pushed or crossed the boundary into being overly physical. So I don't know that he'd want a player to respond to a hard shot directly.

But by following Jumbo's first point "Deliver the first blow" - Duke might be able to both set the tone ("We are the aggressor - Nova better watch out themselves"), and have the rest of the game called to their liking. I think this could really throw the Nova players back, especially if it happens early in the game.

By the way, someone in another thread stated that the NCAA had sent out a memo after the first weekend to clean up the rough stuff. If this actually happened, I can't imagine the Nova player's being able to get overly physical, especially given how outspoken they have been in the paper, etc.

[feldspar]

Huge key, whether we want it to be or not... TAKE THE CHARGE.

...God, I hope the refs call the charge when they see it. I've seen them swallowing those whistles all tourney long.

Don't take the charge.

The refs aren't calling it. They quit calling it in the ACC Tournament and it has carried over into the Big Dance.

Duke can't afford to flop on the floor for no reason, because it's not going to get called unless it's blatant. Go after the defender and try to alter shots.

[roywhite]

Don't take the charge.

The refs aren't calling it. They quit calling it in the ACC Tournament and it has carried over into the Big Dance.

Duke can't afford to flop on the floor for no reason, because it's not going to get called unless it's blatant. Go after the defender (shooter?) and try to alter shots.

One of my most unpleasant Duke basketball memories is of Shane Battier trying to draw charges in the 1999 Championship game against UCon, and not getting the calls. And there were probably a few times where he could have blocked or altered shots, instead of going for the charge.

Let's hope the coaches get an early handle on the way the game is being called and get the team to adjust.

[Bob Green]

If the Duke coaches feel they would benefit from a close called game....

I'm not sure we want a close called game seeing as four of our top eight players, including two starters, are foul prone: Williams, Thomas, Smith and Zoubek. This edition of the Duke Blue Devils can handle physical play.

[Owen Meany]

I'm not sure we want a close called game seeing as four of our top eight players, including two starters, are foul prone: Williams, Thomas, Smith and Zoubek. This edition of the Duke Blue Devils can handle physical play.

I'm not sure either - that's why I said "If the Duke coaches feel they would benefit..." I too am unsure about that given the type of defense Duke plays. I think casual fans think Duke plays soft because they don't bang down low as much as other some other teams. But Duke can be very aggressive on the perimeter (with hand checks, etc). I do think, however, that a referee will be more likely to let banging in the paint slide as "let'em play" - then they will hand-checking on the perimeter.

So, I too am unsure if the Duke coaches want a close called game. But I have read it repeated like a mantra for the last few days (in articles, comments, etc). So if the conventional wisdom is true, I think Duke could get the game to be called closer if they so desired (by almost forcing the refs to exert control).

[gep]

I think the players could accomplish this with the first couple of physical shots they take. With the very first overly physical foul Nova makes, I'd like to see a Duke player jump quickly to their feet and stand chest to chest with the Nova player. Nothing more. With the first quick movement the refs will jump in between the 2 players to ensure things don't get out of hand. I think there's at least a 75% probability that the game is called tighter after that, and that "message" fouls are likely rewarded with a technical as the refs assert control of the game. If not, a second incident will almost surely do the trick. It will also most likely throw off the Nova players, who are coming in with the intent to hammer Duke - since they know the refs will be looking to "keep things under control" by cleaning up the rough stuff. I may be over simplifying this, but I've seen it in countless games over the years. I really think it will work. It also establishes that Duke will not back down.

When I read your post, the player that came to mind to do this "jump up, chest-to-chest" is Lance. I think he's got the mojo to do it well...:D

[ice-9]

Help! (And Recover)
By now, it should be clear to everyone that A) Villanova wants to spread and drive against everyone; B) That's generally the way teams attack Duke; and C) Texas was successful with that strategy in the second round. But even if Duke plays its man D as tight as usual, the help can be better and quicker. Everyone needs to talk really well, cut off the lane quickly and then recover and rotate in anticipation of the kickout pass. This is critical, because Villanova is a solid three-point shooting team (although they can be streaky). Duke can't give them a bunch of wide-open looks off kickouts. That's where the recovery part of the equation has to be in top form.



I do think we should consider sagging off a bit *sometimes* to confuse their guards and hopefully rush them into taking some ill advised shots. If we're always tight man-to-man, Nova will go into what I'm sure is their well prepared game plan. If we always sag, then Nova will eventually learn how to adjust. But if we do both enough times, Nova will have to be on their toes and this mental pressure can force the bad shot or the turnover.

Gottlieb's analysis on Nova as a team:


What I Don't Like: Shot selection
Jay Wright has lived and died with perimeter play throughout his tenure as head coach, and with the advantages of playing three of four guards comes the need for offensive freedom and, at times, poor shot selection. With the exception of Dante Cunningham, no Villanova starter shoots close to 50 percent from the field and the Wildcats are prone to wild shot selection when teams shut off their driving lanes. If you can slow the Cats down and not turn the ball over, they have been prone to shoot themselves out of games.

(From http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney09/news/story?id=4014839)

[GoingFor#5]

It's an interesting topic, but when the writer ranks Duke 13th out of 16 in regards to PG play, I have to wonder how much he has seen us play lately. Jon Scheyer, now backed up by a rejuvenated (and talented) Nolan Smith has been giving us excellent play at PG. Our turnover margin is outstanding; we force turnovers, but don't commit many; in addition, Scheyer is averaging over 19 pts a game since the lineup change, shooting well from 3-pt and getting to the line frequently.

Villanova has good guards, but it's not like Scheyer hasn't been tested, by teams such as Wake, Florida State, and Texas.

Scheyer has been tested just fine. I'm extremely confident with him at the point. I don't think that writer knows what he's talking about. He seems like the kind of writer who would overrate scoring PGs failing to see their deficiencies. Scheyer makes good decisions and doesn't turn the ball over...the #1 thing to look for in a PG, not a crossover. And, oh yeah, Scheyer scores pretty darn well too as an added bonus.

[GoingFor#5]

One of my most unpleasant Duke basketball memories is of Shane Battier trying to draw charges in the 1999 Championship game against UCon, and not getting the calls. And there were probably a few times where he could have blocked or altered shots, instead of going for the charge.

Let's hope the coaches get an early handle on the way the game is being called and get the team to adjust.

Same here and unfortunately college basketball hasn't gotten any better in regards to calling the game consistently.

[gotham devil]

I'm not sure we want a close called game seeing as four of our top eight players, including two starters, are foul prone: Williams, Thomas, Smith and Zoubek. This edition of the Duke Blue Devils can handle physical play.

Well, it wasn't a close game, but it would've been a tad less humiliating if we could've kept it under 20.