Phase VII - 2009

[Jumbo]

It's on to Phase VII -- the East Regional -- and thank goodness we've reached this point! There's a lot to be excited about, but a lot of work to get done, too. This team is still evolving, still improving, and here's the latest batch of questions I'll be wondering about as they take the court in Boston:

Has Duke just cleared a major mental hurdle -- and will that make a difference?
The team looked really tight at the end of the Texas game. It was clear to me that the whole "getting past the first weekend" thing was weighing on them. But now they're past that point, and I have to think that will leave them more relaxed and confident. That could be a nice little edge to take into Boston.

Can the team play D without fouling?
This is becoming a bigger and bigger problem. On the perimeter, Nolan Smith and Elliot Williams can't seem to keep their hands off the ball-handler. Up front, Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek already have high foul rates, and Kyle Singler obviously ran into trouble against Texas. People kept worrying about games being called too loosely in the NCAA Tournament, but I'm not sure that's a problem for Duke. We have a team that likes to play physical ball, too, and ticky-tack fouls on D are really hurting. I'm still not 100% sure how good the D is, and I'm worried that if the team can't play as physically as it would like at the end of the court, it will suffer.

Speaking of the D, can the guys contain quick guards?
We knew this was a problem against, say, Ty Lawson. But watching Varez Ward repeatedly beat Smith and Williams off the dribble was truly concerning. Texas spread the floor and attacked off the bounce (the traditional approach to beat Duke's pressure man-to-man), and neither the containment nor the help was particularly good. Duke's going to play a team Thursday night that specializes in that style of play. So, can Duke's perimeter defenders step up, or might K need to ask them to step back?

Can Duke get easy baskets against good teams?
I've harped on the importance of this area all season, but now, against top-notch teams, it's going to be even more important to get a few freebies and not have to grind out every possession.

Can Duke maintain its secret weapon?
Duke continues to be (quietly) an outstanding offensive rebounding team. The Blue Devils are 27th in the country in offensive rebound percentage and that, along with the low number of turnovers since Jon Scheyer moved to the point, has essentially given the team a number of extra possessions. Against better teams, can Duke keep quietly benefitting from the offensive glass? We'll see.

And can Duke match that effort on the defensive boards?
Duke won't be -- and doesn't have to be -- a great defensive rebounding team. It just has to be good. I talked a lot in the last phase about finishing plays. We've seen too many strong defensive possessions end in a fumbled rebound, a missed boxout, etc. Duke has to finish more of its strong defensive sequences by grabbing the ball at the end. You can't give good teams too many extra chances.

Can Duke maintain its low turnover rate against better, quicker defenses?
As I explained above, Duke's low turnover rate, combined with its offenisve rebounding, helps offset poor shooting and other flaws. Duke will face greater defensive pressure in Boston, though, and simply must take care of the ball.

Can Duke continue to knock down a solid percentage of its jump shots?
With the versatility of Henderson and Singler, plus Scheyer's ability to draw fouls and Smith's improved attacking off the dribble, Duke can get a decent number of points in other ways. So, this team isn't living and dying by the three. That said, the guys can't afford a dreadful shooting night from the perimeter. They don't have to knock everything down, but they absolutely can't go ice cold.

Does Coach K have any tricks up his sleeve?
Maybe I'm holding out hope here, but not so long ago, the general perception was that you didn't want to give Coach K four or five days to prepare for your team. We have to remember that he built his legend on NCAA Tourney success, and despite some recent disappointments, he's still the same guy. I have to think he'll have the team prepared with an excellent gameplan and perhaps add a couple of wrinkles we haven't seen yet. This team can play with anyone. If it's close, maybe K can be the difference between winning and losing.

As always, there's a lot more to consider. But this is enough of a list to digest. Let's hope for the best. Go Duke!

[yancem]

It's on to Phase VII -- the East Regional -- and thank goodness we've reached this point! There's a lot to be excited about, but a lot of work to get done, too. This team is still evolving, still improving, and here's the latest batch of questions I'll be wondering about as they take the court in Boston:

Does Coach K have any tricks up his sleeve?
Maybe I'm holding out hope here, but not so long ago, the general perception was that you didn't want to give Coach K four or five days to prepare for your team. We have to remember that he built his legend on NCAA Tourney success, and despite some recent disappointments, he's still the same guy. I have to think he'll have the team prepared with an excellent gameplan and perhaps add a couple of wrinkles we haven't seen yet. This team can play with anyone. If it's close, maybe K can be the difference between winning and losing.

As always, there's a lot more to consider. But this is enough of a list to digest. Let's hope for the best. Go Duke!

This is a major point that I think has gotten lost in the shuffle with all the talk about how the officiating will impact the game. K, at least from my perspective, has always been a stronger at planning prior to the game than making changes during the game. Duke's record in semifinal games vs final games in the tournament is a good illustration of this. Under K, Duke is 7-3 in the semis and 3-4 in the finals. I've always felt that if you gave K enough time, he could come up with a winning strategy and/or psychology. I too am hopeful that he has something under his sleeve for this game.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I have come to look forward to the Phase questions that you post here.

I would like to add one that I think we could use to our advantage that ties in with Coach K having time to prepare.

With that he aslo has time to motivate. Maybe he told them to turn on ESPN and look at the bottom line where it actually says this " Michigan St. in the sweet 16 for the 8th time in 12 years." then Duke came up and it said " Duke in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2006"

Just a small example of things that can be used for motivation for Duke in this game and for the rest of the tournament if we are so lucky to advance.

Coach K is a master motivater and I am looking forward to the first 5 minutes, because if he motivates them enough we could have a chance to shock and awe them into subbmission as they are getting a lot of positive press right now and may have the sense that they could walk away with an easy victory over DUKE.

Airforce Dukie

[Wander]

Duke's record in semifinal games vs final games in the tournament is a good illustration of this. Under K, Duke is 7-3 in the semis and 3-4 in the finals.

Don't have any numbers, but isn't K's record in the Elite 8 way better than his record in the Sweet 16? At least it seems that way.

[BlueintheFace]

Speaking of the D, can the guys contain quick guards?
We knew this was a problem against, say, Ty Lawson. But watching Varez Ward repeatedly beat Smith and Williams off the dribble was truly concerning. Texas spread the floor and attacked off the bounce (the traditional approach to beat Duke's pressure man-to-man), and neither the containment nor the help was particularly good. Duke's going to play a team Thursday night that specializes in that style of play. So, can Duke's perimeter defenders step up, or might K need to ask them to step back?


Part of me always thinks that K might just tell the boys to back off defensively and make them chuck it from the cheap seats while preventing penetration.... against certain teams. That part of me is dead. K will never do this. I think it just isn't in his DNA. I have finally conceded this point to myself and just hope that our boys are up to stopping penetration.

[Bob Green]

Has Duke just cleared a major mental hurdle -- and will that make a difference?
The team looked really tight at the end of the Texas game. It was clear to me that the whole "getting past the first weekend" thing was weighing on them. But now they're past that point, and I have to think that will leave them more relaxed and confident. That could be a nice little edge to take into Boston.

I sure hope so! The team had to have been holding their breath a bit the first weekend. Now that that 300 pound gorilla is off their back, I hope they come out relaxed in the East Regional and play the best ball they are capable of playing. We can't ask for more than that.


Speaking of the D, can the guys contain quick guards?
We knew this was a problem against, say, Ty Lawson. But watching Varez Ward repeatedly beat Smith and Williams off the dribble was truly concerning.


We beat Wake Forest with Teague and Smith, and FSU with Douglas. Villanova is good and I expect a tough game but they have to worry about containing Henderson, Singler, and Scheyer for 35+ minutes each plus Smith and Williams. We have a lot of offensive weapons.


Can Duke maintain its secret weapon?
Duke continues to be (quietly) an outstanding offensive rebounding team.

Dave McClure should see major minutes off the bench against Villanova. As stated in your other thread, this will be a McClure game.

[devildownunder]

Part of me always thinks that K might just tell the boys to back off defensively and make them chuck it from the cheap seats while preventing penetration.... against certain teams. That part of me is dead. K will never do this. I think it just isn't in his DNA. I have finally conceded this point to myself and just hope that our boys are up to stopping penetration.

I've even seen him go to zone but I've NEVER seen him do what you suggest. I am reminded of the St. John's game in 2000, when erick barkley and crew beat us by whipping the ball around the perimeter until someone got a half-step advantage and attacked. Villanova's offense will be similar. Let's just hope our guys are better equipped to handle it. One problem is that they shot the ball really well against ucla. If they remain that hot, we certainly can't back off too much anyway, even if K wanted to -- which he doesn't. :)

[jv001]

Jumbo you must be a basketball coach. Your points indicate that you are.
Mental hurdle.. I would say that a heavy burden has been shed from these young men's shoulders. Now play loose.
Play without fouling..Nolan and Elliot keep your hands off Nova,,LT don't make those silly fouls you seem to make at times..We need to stay out of foul trouble.
Offensive rebounding..Good description in that it's our secret weapon. Keep it up Kyle, Elliot and Dave. Lance be strong and hold on to those rebounds.
Jump Shots..The biggest key to beating Nova. If we hit jump shots early it will set the tone for the game and give us confidence. We have been shooting much better lately. Don't stop now.
Coach K's tricks..Not a trick but his ability to motivate is huge. This team seems to feed off Coach K's passion (see 2nd Wake game). Look for Coach K to really be fired up. Atleast I hope so.
Go Duke!

[jimsumner]

The Michigan State thing is interesting. 8 Sweet Sixteens in the last 12 seasons is worthy of praise. But that is two fewer than Duke over the same time span.

And yes, for some curious reason, K does have a better record in regional finals than in regional semifinals. K has only lost once in a regional final (1998 Kentucky) but has lost in the Sweet Sixteen in 1987 (Indiana), 2000 (Florida), 2002 (Indiana), 2003 (Kansas), 2005 (Michigan State) and 2006 (LSU).

So maybe Duke should be sweating Thursday more than a potential Saturday game. :)

[Jeffrey]

Speaking of the D, can the guys contain quick guards?
We knew this was a problem against, say, Ty Lawson. But watching Varez Ward repeatedly beat Smith and Williams off the dribble was truly concerning. Texas spread the floor and attacked off the bounce (the traditional approach to beat Duke's pressure man-to-man), and neither the containment nor the help was particularly good. Duke's going to play a team Thursday night that specializes in that style of play. So, can Duke's perimeter defenders step up, or might K need to ask them to step back?

Was the Ward issue an abnormality because we almost always had our best defender on Abrams and instructed them not to help?

[lmb]

I think the help defense was not up to par when Ward went off because that was the same time that our guys were in pretty serious foul trouble.

[_Gary]

A lot of good points again, Jumbo. At this point in the season though I think it all boils down to one key factor alone: Can we continue to hit a decent percentage of our outside shots? I'm not just talking about 3's, but also the long 2's that Gerald has been hitting with some frequency over the last couple of weeks. As long as he, Jon, Kyle and Nolan can continue to hit at a decent percentage, and we don't see 2 or more of those four guys go ice cold from distance, I like our chances a lot against anyone in the nation. And we'll get the open looks because our ball movement has improved some and with Jon at the point we have cut down on senseless turnovers.

To me it's all in our hands. If we continue to shoot well we win. If we go cold, no matter how well we are playing defense, we lose. It's that simple at this point, IMHO.

[NYDukie]

Just to piggie back on the "motivation" point but here in the NYC area, the vast majority of sports writers and talking heads seem to be all Nova leans. This is Big East territory in NYC but it seems most are just automatically putting Louisville, UConn and either Pitt or Nova in. UNC is getting some love but forget about anyone else according to them. And if you didn't know anything about college basketball up here you would think Syracuse was a top 5 team! I understand all the hype and respect they deserve for putting 5 teams in the Sweet 16 but there are some other real good teams out there that can make the Final 4 and win it such as Duke, Oklahoma, Kansas, Memphis or MSU. That said, I can see Coach K just pounding it into the teams head that no one gives them a shot, not the UConn lovers at ESPN, not SI or any other sports media outlet. Let's see if the team can run the Big East gauntlet to the National Championship similar to 2001 when they went through half the Pac 10!

[Truth]

A lot of good points again, Jumbo. At this point in the season though I think it all boils down to one key factor alone: Can we continue to hit a decent percentage of our outside shots? I'm not just talking about 3's, but also the long 2's that Gerald has been hitting with some frequency over the last couple of weeks. As long as he, Jon, Kyle and Nolan can continue to hit at a decent percentage, and we don't see 2 or more of those four guys go ice cold from distance, I like our chances a lot against anyone in the nation. And we'll get the open looks because our ball movement has improved some and with Jon at the point we have cut down on senseless turnovers.

To me it's all in our hands. If we continue to shoot well we win. If we go cold, no matter how well we are playing defense, we lose. It's that simple at this point, IMHO.

IMHO, this is too much an over-simplification. I do agree that we have an increased likelihood of winning when our shots are falling and an increased chance of losing if they are not, but that holds true every game throughout the season, no moreso today.

Regarding your point, you indicated if we shoot well, we win -- can you tell me the overall FG% you feel we need to hit to win/lose? (A tight range is fine -- I'm not going to hold you to single %pt or anything.)

[KyDevilinIL]

Just to piggie back on the "motivation" point but here in the NYC area, the vast majority of sports writers and talking heads seem to be all Nova leans. This is Big East territory in NYC but it seems most are just automatically putting Louisville, UConn and either Pitt or Nova in. UNC is getting some love but forget about anyone else according to them. And if you didn't know anything about college basketball up here you would think Syracuse was a top 5 team! I understand all the hype and respect they deserve for putting 5 teams in the Sweet 16 but there are some other real good teams out there that can make the Final 4 and win it such as Duke, Oklahoma, Kansas, Memphis or MSU. That said, I can see Coach K just pounding it into the teams head that no one gives them a shot, not the UConn lovers at ESPN, not SI or any other sports media outlet. Let's see if the team can run the Big East gauntlet to the National Championship similar to 2001 when they went through half the Pac 10!

I see your point, but I seem to remember a ton of media folks picking Michigan State in 2005 and LSU in 2006. I've always thought that actually gave those teams a boost of confidence more than it sparked Duke's motivation. We didn't match either team's energy on those nights, at least by my recollection.

This is a different Duke team with a totally different demeanor and feel than those teams, in my opinion, so I'm not quite as worried about the influence of outsiders or about this team's ability to counter and react to an early punch. But I fully expect Nova to be charged up from the tip. With so many folks saying Nova has the edge, I'm pretty sure they're going to try to knock us out of the gym early.

[Seattledukie]

Our defense on Ward flagged when Elliot Williams went out in the 2nd half. K has a dilemma at the 2 spot - leave Elliot in and shut down the dribble-drive, or bring Nolan in and have 4 credible scoring threats on the floor. Texas sagged off Elliot so much that the lane was clogged when he was in, but Nolan was scoring so well that he got most of the time in the 2nd half. Elliot came in when we needed to shut down Texas' run.

[The Gordog]

Was the Ward issue an abnormality because we almost always had our best defender on Abrams and instructed them not to help?


I think the help defense was not up to par when Ward went off because that was the same time that our guys were in pretty serious foul trouble.

Both correct IIRC.

[Rich]

And yes, for some curious reason, K does have a better record in regional finals than in regional semifinals. K has only lost once in a regional final (1998 Kentucky) but has lost in the Sweet Sixteen in 1987 (Indiana), 2000 (Florida), 2002 (Indiana), 2003 (Kansas), 2005 (Michigan State) and 2006 (LSU).

Maybe it's because the other team doesn't have sufficient time to prepare for us!

[NYDukie]

I see your point, but I seem to remember a ton of media folks picking Michigan State in 2005 and LSU in 2006. I've always thought that actually gave those teams a boost of confidence more than it sparked Duke's motivation. We didn't match either team's energy on those nights, at least by my recollection.

This is a different Duke team with a totally different demeanor and feel than those teams, in my opinion, so I'm not quite as worried about the influence of outsiders or about this team's ability to counter and react to an early punch. But I fully expect Nova to be charged up from the tip. With so many folks saying Nova has the edge, I'm pretty sure they're going to try to knock us out of the gym early.

I understand your point also but I just think whereas there was those who picked the 05 & 06 teams due JJ and Sheldon being on the teams, it was because they were #1 a good portion of those years and had that "favorite" label on them. Those teams weren't lacking confidence, if anything, maybe they were over confident. I think this year's team felt the burden of what is expected to be a Duke team given the past two year's flame outs and needed a little coddling and nuturing which they have received, and as a result, grew during the year and was able to handle adversity better than in the past, as seen in winning the ACC tourney. Furthermore, they now have that "we can do this" attitude to go along with the talent base. I think the team now believes in itself as opposed to before winning the ACC tourney, even if the players or Coach K will not publicly admit it.

However, the next step is to show the naysayers (media, Duke hater types and the like) that they will win whether they are against them or not. Because again, whether they or Coach K admit it, I believe they do read the papers, internet sites and watch Sportscenter and constantly see everyone saying they can't do it. All teams want to win but some need that little extra edge and I think this is the opportunity to use outside influences to gain that edge rather than just relying on one's inner desire.

[House G]

In conjunction with question #7, I sometimes wake up at night with flashbacks to Feb. 4, 2009 (I think it is a variation of post-traumatic stress disorder :eek:). For those of you with selective memories, that is the night we got mauled by Clemson by 27 points. We literally could not get the ball across midcourt because of Clemson's pressure. It is unclear to me why other teams have not used this blueprint against us--we seem to have had little difficulty since. Is there any chance Villanova will try such a strategy--are they a pressing team? What type of team would best be able to press us--obviously Villanova has quick guards but some of our ball handlers would have a height advantage? Here's to hoping they remember why Coach K called a timeout in the last minute of that Clemson game--he wanted the players to listen to the celebration by the Clemson fans so they wouldn't forget that loss.

[Kedsy]

In conjunction with question #7, I sometimes wake up at night with flashbacks to Feb. 4, 2009 (I think it is a variation of post-traumatic stress disorder :eek:). For those of you with selective memories, that is the night we got mauled by Clemson by 27 points. We literally could not get the ball across midcourt because of Clemson's pressure. It is unclear to me why other teams have not used this blueprint against us--we seem to have had little difficulty since. Is there any chance Villanova will try such a strategy--are they a pressing team? What type of team would best be able to press us--obviously Villanova has quick guards but some of our ball handlers would have a height advantage? Here's to hoping they remember why Coach K called a timeout in the last minute of that Clemson game--he wanted the players to listen to the celebration by the Clemson fans so they wouldn't forget that loss.

Villanova will press us, but I strongly doubt the result will be the same.

[Kedsy]

I fully expect Nova to be charged up from the tip. With so many folks saying Nova has the edge, I'm pretty sure they're going to try to knock us out of the gym early.

Personally, I think with so many folks saying they have the edge, Nova is going to come out overconfident, and we will knock them back a bit. They'll recover, but if I'm right hopefully a surge at the beginning will give us the breathing room we need to come out of there with a W.

[_Gary]

IMHO, this is too much an over-simplification. I do agree that we have an increased likelihood of winning when our shots are falling and an increased chance of losing if they are not, but that holds true every game throughout the season, no moreso today.

Regarding your point, you indicated if we shoot well, we win -- can you tell me the overall FG% you feel we need to hit to win/lose? (A tight range is fine -- I'm not going to hold you to single %pt or anything.)

I know it may seem like an oversimplification, but I don't believe it is. What I'm saying is that I believe Duke's defense is going to play solid and hold up their end of the job. I think we'll rebound well enough as well. The main issue/key to me is our Big 3 hitting a decent percentage of their outside shots (which will be available throughout the night). I guess I'm looking at the Big 3 + Nolan and hoping to see at least 35-40% from three point distance and 40-45% from the floor over all. I think if we see that from those guys we win unless Nova channels the '85 team in shooting percentage.

Honestly though, I'm just looking more to see if our main guys suddenly go cold from the perimeter. As a group they haven't had a bad shooting night during this latest stretch and that has surely led to us winning the ACC Tournament and getting past Texas. I just think that perimeter shooting for our main players is key.

[superdave]

How come no one is talking about how poorly Nova played against American for 30 minutes last week? That was a stink bomb.

Both teams seem to have the capability of high highs and low lows. My guess is this game will be scrappy and hard fought, with a lot of energy. It may not be beautiful basketball but I expect both teams to be spent at the end.

[sagegrouse]

The Grouse is thinking that Duke will play its best two games of the season.

We are focused.

We have a role for everyone in the top nine players (plus others who can contribute). In assition to Kyle, Gerald and Jon, Nolan and EWill (and Greg) can contribute on offense. In fact, I would look for some points from LT against Nova.

There is a killer instinct on the team, which was evident in the last minute against the teasippers from UT Austin. This is a mature team.

The defense, which has received some unjustified complaints in various fora, is playing really well IMHO. We controlled A.J Abrams and neutralized the big tank in the middle. We rendered impotent the "tallest team in Division I" [FSU].

I am looking for the offense to step up against the Wildcats: (a) for Kyle and G (and the bigs) to finish around the rim, (b) for the guards to drive and kick -- and makes those 3's, (c) for the team to push the ball against the 'Cats, and (d) for everyone to make FTs. Simple, eh? I think we are going to do it.

sagegrouse
'Go Duke'

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I think we gave up the drive against Texas, we let them beat us in other ways becuase we knew that Abrams could go off from three at anytime. So we didn't help. On top of that we also had foul trouble so we didn't help down low either. Since Nova doesn't have a player who can absolutely light it up like abrams can we wont have to worry about staying glued as often, and we can help on dribble penetration more often. Should be fun I can't friggin wait.

Airforcedukie

[ice-9]

In conjunction with question #7, I sometimes wake up at night with flashbacks to Feb. 4, 2009 (I think it is a variation of post-traumatic stress disorder :eek:). For those of you with selective memories, that is the night we got mauled by Clemson by 27 points. We literally could not get the ball across midcourt because of Clemson's pressure. It is unclear to me why other teams have not used this blueprint against us--we seem to have had little difficulty since. Is there any chance Villanova will try such a strategy--are they a pressing team? What type of team would best be able to press us--obviously Villanova has quick guards but some of our ball handlers would have a height advantage? Here's to hoping they remember why Coach K called a timeout in the last minute of that Clemson game--he wanted the players to listen to the celebration by the Clemson fans so they wouldn't forget that loss.

Actually, I think many of the teams we've played since have pulled out the press every once in a while to try to rattle us. Binghamton was a good example. But Scheyer has handled the pressure with aplomb, and opposing teams usually just gave up and went back to their normal defense.

That said I wouldn't want Duke to play Missouri, a team that like Clemson specializes in the press.

[Bob Green]

That said I wouldn't want Duke to play Missouri, a team that like Clemson specializes in the press.

I would absolutely love to see Duke play Missouri. We are on opposite sides of the bracket so a Duke-Missouri match up would mean we were in the Championship Game. But I am getting ahead of myself as that is a Phase VIII discussion topic.

[ice-9]

I would absolutely love to see Duke play Missouri. We are on opposite sides of the bracket so a Duke-Missouri match up would mean we were in the Championship Game. But I am getting ahead of myself as that is a Phase VIII discussion topic.

True that!

[KyDevilinIL]

Well I woke up this morning with an overwhelming sense of foreboding, which is one of the many reasons it's good that I wasn't a competitive athlete. Here's hoping the guys are eager and excited to get this thing going.

And for what it's worth, I awoke with a sense of overwhelming confidence the mornings of @Wake and @Clemson, so here's hoping my sixth sense is a reliable indicator of what's not going to happen on game night.

It's been a long four days of analyzing ourselves in circles. It's time to go make a ton of baskets, force a bunch of turnovers, grab a bunch of rebounds and see what happens. LGD.

[NYDukie]

Feeling good this morning. As opposed to the past 4 years and 2 flameouts in the Sweet 16 as favorite, I feel this team has a good "underdog" vibe about them. I know we are the #2 seed whereas Nova is the #3, I also know we are a slight favorite in Vegas but when you come down to the experts on all the sports media outlets, we seem to be the 'dog. It just seems for everyone predicting a Duke win, there are 3 or 4 others saying Nova. I know the college basketball world for the most part will be against Duke but I just have this feeling, someway, somehow, these guys will be playing Saturday with the Final 4 on the line.

It's going to be a long day at work waiting around and even a longer 2 hours tonight screaming at the TV as it nears midnight hoping not to wake the baby and get yelled at by my better half. Hell, she will be screaming with me...LOLLLLL

[House G]

I am well aware that Duke has a lot of alumni in the Northeast. I know we historically have had great fan support in New York/New Jersey. However, because I live well south of the Mason-Dixon line, I don't have a feel for what our fan support in Boston is apt to be (relative to the other 3 schools). Can someone enlighten me?

[feldspar]

Also, G needs to stop trying to head fake and draw a foul on the defender in the air.

The refs aren't calling that one, either.

[pfrduke]

Also, G needs to stop trying to head fake and draw a foul on the defender in the air.

The refs aren't calling that one, either.

He would be fine if he did it right. The difference between him and Scheyer on these moves is noticeable. Jon does it, and then jumps while the defender is still in the air, on his way down so it looks much more like the defender establishes contact. Gerald, for some reason, waits for the guys to land, then jumps into them, looking like he's completely establishing contact and looking nothing like a foul. It's actually not a bad move for him, if he would execute it properly.

[calltheobvious]

Also, G needs to stop trying to head fake and draw a foul on the defender in the air.

The refs aren't calling that one, either.

That's right. But I think that's entirely attributable to the fact that Gerald waits longer than anyone I've ever seen to actually jump after he's gotten his defender airborne. It's almost like he has a bad shoulder that he doesn't want to expose by making an aggressive move into the flying defender.

Jon always gets that call because his timing and angle in those situations are nearly impeccable. G should take some lessons from his roomie.

[buddy]

Based on the team's performance tonight, I think the answer to all your questions is "No." We did not get offense out of defense (partly because we couldn't play transition defense), we couldn't hit jump shots, and we looked mentally unprepared. Villanova punched us in the nose with that 11-0 run after we were up 5-0, and we never recovered. We kept it close, but let them blow us away in the second half. our players looked confused, hurried shots, could not or did not find their open teammates, threw the ball into the stands, and were generally unwilling or unable to do the dirty work necessary to get open. The second half of this game had the same feel as Clemson, and maybe the 1990 UNLV game. Not a good way to end the season. This was a beat down that may have exposed a mental fragility even more than the lack of physical ability.

[DukieInBrasil]

Based on the team's performance tonight, I think the answer to all your questions is "No." We did not get offense out of defense (partly because we couldn't play transition defense), we couldn't hit jump shots, and we looked mentally unprepared. Villanova punched us in the nose with that 11-0 run after we were up 5-0, and we never recovered. We kept it close, but let them blow us away in the second half. our players looked confused, hurried shots, could not or did not find their open teammates, threw the ball into the stands, and were generally unwilling or unable to do the dirty work necessary to get open. The second half of this game had the same feel as Clemson, and maybe the 1990 UNLV game. Not a good way to end the season. This was a beat down that may have exposed a mental fragility even more than the lack of physical ability.

I have to pretty much agree with all of this. This was by far our worst game of the year, also G´s worst game of the year, although Kyle played alright, no one else even approached mediocre.
This is the type of game where the residue of a losing early in the tourney for the last few years shows its effect. There was all the pressure to do it right, but none of the experience of how to do it right.
So now that the Greg Paulus era is over i am hoping for a return to good, high-octane basketball. Greg played hard and is an up-standing member of the Duke tradition, but he was given a job that he just wasn´t good enough for and K didn´t understand that quickly enough to get a good replacement for him, in fact we still don´t have one.
Regardless of whether G comes back next year, i think our offense will be much improved due to maturity and an entire roster that has an understanding of what it takes to get to the S16 and a leader capable of getting us there and hopefully beyond.