Gerald

[tux]

Chad Ford of ESPN still lists Henderson as 50/50 for declaring. (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2007/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=InOut)

I hope it's not a coin flip at this point. I feel like we really haven't even gotten to see Gerald play yet, with the nagging injuries of the past season.

Can anyone shed some light on this? Could this happen?

[VaDukie]

This popped up a few weeks ago; basically, Chad Ford is an idiot and there is no chance Gerald will leave. I think he had some of those names down to fill up space.

[JJweMISSu]

he didnt even start all the games last year why would he leave?

[Channing]

he didnt even start all the games last year why would he leave?

does the name Marvin Williams ring a bell?

[JJweMISSu]

But he won a NC before he left right? I mean all Henderson has done is broke tyler hans nose

[Troublemaker]

does the name Marvin Williams ring a bell?

Not the same situation since Marvin was expected by many to be 1-and-done. Gerald leaving would be shocking. I don't think there's anything to it.

[vango]

I'd be surprised if a guy from Bristol has inside info. that nobody has even peeped about on this site, in these boards, or amongst DBD fans....

Very ill-advised in my opinion and doesn't do much for his rep....

[SilkyJ]

he didnt even start all the games last year why would he leave?

That is irrelevant, especially because of the NBA's infatuation with "upside."

Exhibit A: Corey "Uh-oh" Maggette-Oh

[mapei]

Exhibit B, or is it C: Luol Deng.

Edit: whoops, I take that back. LD was a starter. I should think before I write.

[VaDukie]

vango,
He also has Eric Maynor and Stephen Curry listed. Nice players, but would be absolutley obliterated in the league. Henderson isn't even thinking about going.

[vango]

vango,
He also has Eric Maynor and Stephen Curry listed. Nice players, but would be absolutley obliterated in the league. Henderson isn't even thinking about going.

Agree completely. I can't even find a common theme amongst those whom he lists to get a clear understand of his selection process. It's kind of like a Wooden candidates list at the beginning of the season. GH will be impressing us all next year in Cameron I think....

[devildownunder]

Henderson showed only brief flashes of star ability in the acc this year. very brief. He was coming on a little at the end of the season but he was in no way a world-beater like Deng, Maggette or some of the others mentioned. So, him declaring for the draft sounds absurd. I can't completely dismiss it, however, because his father does have NBA connections and those seem to be able to boost a kid's draft position considerably. (can you say dunleavy third overall in '02? I mean, seriously, I love mike d and he was a tremendous player at duke but that was ridiculous.)

All of that said, I'd be surprised if he weren't back playing in CIS next season.

Edited to say: after looking at both rounds of the 2002 draft, there sure were a ton of duds that year. There are a handful of players who have had better careers than Mike's in the league but the vast majority of players selected that year have done little or nothing. Considering that, I guess selecting mike 3rd overall wasn't such a bad move, relatively speaking. Goodness, what a weak draft.

see for yourself: http://www.sportsstats.com/jazzyj/greats/02/index.html

[dukeisawesome]

I mentioned in another thread that Gerald has money since his dad was in the NBA and its a deep draft so he'd probably be better off not going pro this year. He's be what...mid-late first round? In a year or two, he's likely a lottery pick.

[mgtr]

devildownunder-
You could win some bets by asking people to name 3 of the top 5 draft picks in 2002! That is a very interesting list. You could also give people the list of the top 5 with question "What do these people have in common?" A surefire moneymaker. Good memory & research.

[devildownunder]

devildownunder-
You could win some bets by asking people to name 3 of the top 5 draft picks in 2002! That is a very interesting list. You could also give people the list of the top 5 with question "What do these people have in common?" A surefire moneymaker. Good memory & research.



lots of eye-openers there for sure.

[Patrick Yates]

I mentioned in another thread that Gerald has money since his dad was in the NBA and its a deep draft so he'd probably be better off not going pro this year. He's be what...mid-late first round? In a year or two, he's likely a lottery pick.

One of the arguments regarding Lawson leaving this year is that next year is a strong year for guards, which is the NBA position for GH. This year, while strong on low post players and small forwards, is relatively weak at both guard positions.

This year's supposedly strong draft is based on the projection made more than a year ago about the strength of this past season's freshman class, a projection that has collapsed.

Sure Oden and Durant (and to a much lesser extent Wright) have lived up to or exceeded their hype, but what about the rest?

Hawes is not a world beater.
The FL players are not superstars.
Crittendon and Young at Ga Tech showed flashes but were dissappointments overall.

Doyel (yeah we hate him, but he makes good points when he is not ripping K) points out that there is a strong dip off after Durant and Oden, and a further one after the two Wrights.

GH, based on his potential, could go in the late first round, or better with strong workouts. This year he showed reliable shoting from mid and long range, the ability to drive and finish near the rim, and solid defensive ability. The tools are all there. With a solid summer honing his game and a year of work in the League, he would be on his way to being a superstar.

The only knock is his asthma. We have talked about what a stud he will be if he takes care of that this offseason. Well, he could spend a delevopmental year or two in the pros, making good money and developing on a solid team, and then really take off in time for his next contract.

GH is a lot more polished than many kids entering the L. He is not just an athlete, his game, while not yet a finished product, is nice. All he needs is reps.

Next year's draft projects to be the oppositie of this one, where it is guard heavy. GH could surpass them, but he may not.

Also, next year at Duke, GH could be playing way out of position. At best he will spend virutally all of his time at small forward, rather than shooting guard. At worst (assuming that we will not have PP), if LT and BZ fail to progress, and TK cannot handle the defense, GH may have to play some at PF. Even his time at SF, which is not greatly out of position for him, will be played on a team with no or little significant post presence.

GH's dad and NBA connections may feel that GH can better develop in the league than out of position on a small team.

Also, let's not forget the Workout Warrior theory. If GH's asthma/oft rumored injury is better, then GH would wow at workouts. He might shoot up the draft board based on said workouts.

I think GH leaving would be a bad decision, but not outside the realm of possibility. It is unlikely, but not shocking.

It has been a bad year so far, why stop now?

Patrick Yates

[gw67]

Patrick – You put down Crittenton, Young and Hawes as being disappointments but their freshmen seasons were significantly better than Henderson’s. Besides, Crittenton is every bit as good an athlete as Henderson, has better skills and plays point guard; Young is bigger and has better skills, and Hawes is a seven-footer with good offensive skills. Personally, I don’t think any of these players have shown enough to play in the 24-second league but the league GMs have to select someone in the draft and why not take a chance on a youngster who may develop.

Your comment on the Workout Warrior reminded me of the defensive end from BC a few years ago who was nothing special in college but whose speed, strength and agility tested off the charts in the NFL workouts. As a result, he was drafted in the first round by, I believe, the Eagles. It turned out that he was a so-so football player and he was let go after a couple of years.

You also stated that Henderson was a reliable shooter from long range. I don’t believe that last year’s stats back up that conclusion. While his overall shooting percentage of 45% was OK, he shot just 32% from three-point land and 63% from the foul line.

I hope Henderson returns. The team can use another talented player and he should get the playing time needed to show off his skills.

gw67

[Clipsfan]

Exhibit B, or is it C: Luol Deng.

Edit: whoops, I take that back. LD was a starter. I should think before I write.

Not only was Deng a starter, but he showed that as a freshman he was willing to try and take a team on his back, and had the skills to do so.

[JJweMISSu]

I mentioned in another thread that Gerald has money since his dad was in the NBA and its a deep draft so he'd probably be better off not going pro this year. He's be what...mid-late first round? In a year or two, he's likely a lottery pick.

lottery pick? i doubt that but maybe middle of first round. If he would declare now he would be second rounder. Also i have a question. Will he even start next year?

[Olympic Fan]

The silliest thing said in this thread is the suggestion that Patrick will be playing out of position next year at small forward instead of at shooting guard.

I don't mean to be mean -- okay, maybe a little -- but anybody who thinks there's any difference between the two positions doesn't know much about basketball and nothing about Duke basketball.

How long do you have to watch Coach K's teams to understand that they are virtually positionless? How often does he have to tell you that he doesn't force players into positional straightjackets.

Just last week, he was interviewed at the Nike Hoop Summit about Singler and was asked what position he'll play. K's response was "he'll play all over the floor."

Heck, even at UNC, where they do care about positions, Dean always made it clear that there was virtually no difference between 4 and 5 (the two post positions) and between 2 and 3.

Henderson playing "small forward" won't hurt his NBA preparation any more than it hurt NBA power forwards Brand, Boozer and Shelden Williams to play "center" at Duke.

[Patrick Yates]

Patrick – You put down Crittenton, Young and Hawes as being disappointments but their freshmen seasons were significantly better than Henderson’s. Besides, Crittenton is every bit as good an athlete as Henderson, has better skills and plays point guard; Young is bigger and has better skills, and Hawes is a seven-footer with good offensive skills. Personally, I don’t think any of these players have shown enough to play in the 24-second league but the league GMs have to select someone in the draft and why not take a chance on a youngster who may develop.

Your comment on the Workout Warrior reminded me of the defensive end from BC a few years ago who was nothing special in college but whose speed, strength and agility tested off the charts in the NFL workouts. As a result, he was drafted in the first round by, I believe, the Eagles. It turned out that he was a so-so football player and he was let go after a couple of years.

You also stated that Henderson was a reliable shooter from long range. I don’t believe that last year’s stats back up that conclusion. While his overall shooting percentage of 45% was OK, he shot just 32% from three-point land and 63% from the foul line.

I hope Henderson returns. The team can use another talented player and he should get the playing time needed to show off his skills.

gw67

Hawes and Young were higher rated than GH. Young was especially a dissappointment in that many said Young was the third or fourth best player in the class. He was supposed to be a slightly smaller and less skilled player than Durant, with some national scouts saying that Young possibly had a better upside than Durant.

Many national scouts further said that Hawes would have been the best center prospecct in years if it were not for Oden.

These two had better seasons than GH sure, but they were much larger dissappointments relative to GH and the expectations.

Many scouts felt that GH was more than athletic enough for the league as a HS SR, but that he needed to showcase some basketball skills. I feel that he did that. As for his percentages, they were on a sharp uptick towards the end of our season, when he was perhaps our best player. The only thing holding him back was the asthma. A strong workout could place him in the middle of the first round, depending on who else came out.

The only thing that could force him back is the asthma, because the pros may want to see him play a year healthy, although that is no certainty if he could prove his health in workouts. Also why think he will get to showcase his skills next year? I mentioned that he could be out of position, or at least sharing minutes in a crowded wing situation. If GH knew that PP would come, or that LT and BZ could handle the post, some of his concerns would be answered. We just do not know.

We all want him back but accept that there are some rationales behind a jump to the pros.

Also, given the Hans incident, GH may not want to spend a year visiting opposing arenas in the ACC where he will be the target of some JJesgue hazing, only some of it would be justified. Unlike sexual orientation or sibling issues, fans have real ammo to go after GH.

The Workout Warrior was the BC defensive end. He did wash out of the league after a few years. He was a multimillionaire, so that is not exactly a horror story.

Regarding GH, I feel that he would be a star in workouts. His verticle leap and overall athleticism would prove to be jaw dropping, and if he did well in skills, like shooting, dribbling, and passing, then he could really climb.

The BC workout warrior basically pushed his body to the point where he literally performed at greater than 100% of he capabilities. He trained exclusively for the Combine's tests, some of which do not speak to football ability. He had driven his body to a point that could not be maintained for any stretch of time. He overtrained. For 1 or 2 days he could perform at a high level, but it was impossible to maintain that level of conditioning for any extended period of time.

GH could get into great shape. A top notch trainer could get him up to 210 or 215 with no loss in speed, perhaps even an increase. This would be maintainable for GH, unlike the BC kid.

My workout warrior comment was that GH is the type of athlete that could really wow scouts in workouts, thus sending him up draft boards. The BC kid was able to actually surpass his potential for a single day. He was a Senior with very little upside.

GH is a frosh with tons of upside. If he showcased that ahtleticsm and some skills to go along with it, mid first round (possibly better) is not out of the question.

If I were a GM and was relatively free of concerns regarding his asthma, I like GH way more than McBob.

Patrick Yates


With regards to GH playing out of positions, I am aware that there is very little difference between the 2 and 3 at Duke. If you re-read my original post, I was referring to the belief that GH could see some not insignificant minuts at the 4 if LT and BZ are unable to go in post. As has been postulated on this board, we could be playing a lot of 4 guard linups, and that puts GH at the four. That might be out of position, yes?

[pfrduke]

As has been postulated on this board, we could be playing a lot of 4 guard linups, and that puts GH at the four. That might be out of position, yes?

It's a little bit contradictory to say that if Duke's playing a 4-guard lineup, Henderson would be playing power forward. The definition of a 4-guard lineup is that there are four guards on the floor, not two guards moonlighting as a small forward and a power forward. If Duke's playing a 4-guard lineup, why would they try to place players in traditional 1-through-5 positions? Wouldn't it be four people on the floor playing like guards with one big man in the middle? If you were going to number it, it might look like one 1, three 2/3s, and one 4/5. There's no reason that Henderson has to change his game because he's on court with three other guards, rather than two (or one) other guards.

If Duke threw a lineup of Paulus, Scheyer, Nelson, Henderson, and insert big man here on the floor, is there any reason that he would be asked to do the same things that a power forward does? For example, assume the lineup listed above matches up against UNC with Lawson, Ellington, Ginyard, Thompson, and Hansbrough. Would you want Henderson posting up Thompson down low, or playing inside the key, like a traditional four? I wouldn't - I'd much rather we spread the floor with the four guards and draw UNC's bigs away from the hoop. Now, on defense, Henderson might have to defend Thompson in the post. Or, they might have Nelson guard the post, put Scheyer on Ginyard, and Henderson on Ellington (or even Lawson). Does who he guards change whether he's playing the 2, the 3, or the 4? I'm not sure it does.

[Patrick Yates]

Fine, on offense he still gets to be a wing or a three or what ever.

He still has to guard the big guy. Against UNC, who does he guard? Tyler (foul called every time he breaths on TH) or Stephenson or Thompson.

How do you think GH will perform against Gist, or Hickson, or Costner.

We have to play defense. Yes, the 4 guard will look ok on Offense, other than the 2-4 offensive rebounds we (would not) be able to get. By trying to rebound against these players, the team would suffer.

Also, what makes anyone think K knows how to run a 4 guard (can't remember a 4 guard team seriously competing for a FF) squad. When have we ever done that successfully?

Even our guard heavy teams in the past had the low post stud we don't have next year. Does anyone think that GH's skills are going to be best on display in a four guard lineup.

Realisitically, someone has to go inside, or we will be on the tail end of some tail kickings. Until Duke proves it can hit threes, I predict the 4 guard will face a lot of 3-2 zones, with the opposing posts camped in the lane to prevent a shaky penetration scheme.

I think GH will be back. I think it would be smart on his part. My original point was that there were valid considerations/justifications for him going pro.

People in this post are acting like it would be evidence of SEVERE mental deficiency on his part to even think about entertaining the notion of considering contemplating coming out.

His dad was in the league. It is possible they have access to sources neither we nor ESPN possess.

Do not dismiss this out of hand. We did that with Dunleavy, Avery, Maggette, Deng, McBob, and Shav. None of those "no way will they go" predictions worked out for us that well, huh.

Patrick Yates

[cato]

It's a little bit contradictory to say that if Duke's playing a 4-guard lineup, Henderson would be playing power forward. The definition of a 4-guard lineup is that there are four guards on the floor, not two guards moonlighting as a small forward and a power forward.

You've watched the team in the past when Dahntay and Markie have had to play the 4 in a 4-guard lineup, right? Regardless of whether you say he's moonlighting as a power forward or not, the guard has to match up with a traditional 4 on D. I wouldn't be surprised if some people find that less than ideal.

[FireOgilvie]

If I were a GM and was relatively free of concerns regarding his asthma, I like GH way more than McBob.



Luckily for every NBA team you're not a GM....

McBob is only one year older than GH (nearly as much "upside" as GH), 6'10" and athletic, has ball-handling skills, great passing skills for a big man, and a decent shot. He needs to moderately improve his strength, jumpshot, and low-post moves and if he does this successfully he's an NBA All-Star. McBob has an incredible amount of talent. Once he utilizes it he will be great. Also, McBob will go relatively high because guys like him are rare, especially compared to athletic 6'4" guards (who can't pass). I don't ever see GH as a lottery pick (although I hope he proves me wrong).

[pfrduke]

You've watched the team in the past when Dahntay and Markie have had to play the 4 in a 4-guard lineup, right? Regardless of whether you say he's moonlighting as a power forward or not, the guard has to match up with a traditional 4 on D. I wouldn't be surprised if some people find that less than ideal.

Absolutely agree that it's less than ideal for the team to have a guard matching up with a traditional 4. Would I be worried on defense if a Henderson/Thomas post-combo was all there was to guard Thompson and Hansbrough? Yes. (though there are ways to combat it, even in man defense, with fronting, weak-side rotation, doubling down, etc. - I'd still be worried though). But your point speaks more to the inherent weakness in a four-guard lineup than to whether Henderson's development will be inhibited by playing in a four-guard lineup.

My point was directed more to the contention that Henderson would declare for the draft because if he comes back next year, he might have to play the 4. Even if he's on the court as part of a 4-guard lineup, where he'd be the most natural person to defend an opposing 4 in man-to-man, that doesn't necessarily mean he's playing like a power forward. I just don't think it hinders the development of his perimeter game to say that he'd play minutes in a 4-guard lineup.

[Wander]

Hawes and Young were higher rated than GH. Young was especially a dissappointment in that many said Young was the third or fourth best player in the class. He was supposed to be a slightly smaller and less skilled player than Durant, with some national scouts saying that Young possibly had a better upside than Durant.

Many national scouts further said that Hawes would have been the best center prospecct in years if it were not for Oden.

These two had better seasons than GH sure, but they were much larger dissappointments relative to GH and the expectations.


Crittenton and Hawes were not "much larger disappointments" relative to Henderson. So what if Hawes or Crittenton was rated a few spots above Gerald in the preseason? They were all 5 star recruits, and Crittenton and Hawes had significantly better seasons overall. Young, I'll give you though.

[devildownunder]

Luckily for every NBA team you're not a GM....

McBob is only one year older than GH (nearly as much "upside" as GH), 6'10" and athletic, has ball-handling skills, great passing skills for a big man, and a decent shot. He needs to moderately improve his strength, jumpshot, and low-post moves and if he does this successfully he's an NBA All-Star. McBob has an incredible amount of talent. Once he utilizes it he will be great. Also, McBob will go relatively high because guys like him are rare, especially compared to athletic 6'4" guards (who can't pass). I don't ever see GH as a lottery pick (although I hope he proves me wrong).



No, he needs to greatly improve his strength, low-post moves and all of his shots (except his dunks) to be any kind of player at all at the next level. And there is no guarantee that those things will happen, though I'll be happy for josh if they do. 6'10" guys who can dribble a bit aren't all that rare in the NBA. Josh's skills are better than most of them but he's not going to play the point or anything at the next level. I think you rate mcroberts' potential way too high in relation to henderson's. GH's position may be more crowded but I think he has a much more 'NBA-friendly' game, for now and down the road.

[Boston Dukie]

Doesn't the fact that NBA observers and draft specialists (and everyone on this board) are all speculating that Gerald might go pro, make the whole "who should get more minutes next year Scheyer or Henderson" seem pretty clear cut?

Everyone on this board and everyone who has seen Gerald play has seen flashes of brilliance and an upside that no one else (maybe McRoberts) on Duke's team this past year had.

Gerald needs reps and he should get them. Let him play, let him grow, and let him make mistakes because this is how he will reach his potential.

Gerald got better and better as the season went on, and I don't know if it was related to getting over his injury or his asthma (sp?), but if you take that improvement and potentil and project out 2 years you have a superstar.

Let's hope he stays, is healthy, recovers from the asthma and gets a ton of minutes next year!

[Wander]

Doesn't the fact that NBA observers and draft specialists (and everyone on this board) are all speculating that Gerald might go pro, make the whole "who should get more minutes next year Scheyer or Henderson" seem pretty clear cut?

No, not at all.

[freedevil]

Either you all are out of your mind, or I've missed some legitimate news on Gerald's feelings about next season. The ESPN article putting GH on the 50-50 line is absurd. That same article had Lawson as "one foot in the door" not less than a weeek ago.

In sum, I'm either missing something, or this is much ado about nada.

[watzone]

Chad Ford of ESPN still lists Henderson as 50/50 for declaring. (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2007/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=InOut)

I hope it's not a coin flip at this point. I feel like we really haven't even gotten to see Gerald play yet, with the nagging injuries of the past season.

Can anyone shed some light on this? Could this happen?


First of all I am not picking on you, but does Duke have to address rumors every single week? The whole purpose of a recent question and answer session with assistants was designed to dispell inaccuracies, yet they crop up like tumbleweeds. GH isn't going pro this year.

... that Oly guy knows his stuff!

[greybeard]

There is more to life than basketball, and there is more to basketball than basketball. I have made clear in many other posts my perceptions regarding the benefits of playing for Coach K and what I understand his value system to be.

In my view, K held Henderson back this season to allow him to grow in his concepts as a basketball player and of himself as a person (for lack of a better term). I think that that is what K does with most all incoming students, and the benefits are enormous (somethings money can't buy). You end up with guys (Brand) producing movies, while starring in the NBA, owning pieces of a major league sports franchise (Davis and Laetner) while pursuing demanding careers, being able to deal constructively with the hard knocks life can hand out (Hurley and JWill), etc.

Henderson went through the hardest part, having his ability to contribute curtailed to allow him to watch and grow without the emotional ups and downs of being placed at center stage from day one. The misstake Henderson made was imo reflective of the need for that type of cevelopment. Had he been a high profile player all year long, the consequences for him might have been much more long lasting. I think that the education that he can get at Duke, playing for the K man and growing with those around him, and being able to give greater expression fo his considerable talents, have to be worth staying. Let us also not forget that Duke is Duke. There are multiple thousands of young people with enormous abilities who would love but never get the chance to live and grow in that place. Henderson, one might hope, won't so easily walk away from that.

[jaimedun34]

Has it been mentioned that Henderson battled an injury through preseason and also has exercised induced asthma? That's why he played in 3-4 minute spurts and also why he played so little in the beginning.

Oh, and the fact that Jon Scheyer was looking fabulous throughout the first half of the season.

[tux]

Watzone, you never need to preface a reply to me in that way --- I have thicker skin than that.

I didn't really think of the ESPN list as rumor, per se --- perhaps the "rumor" that Gerald had at least entertained the notion of testing the draft waters; afterall, he was one of about 30 guys under the "50/50" heading.

I apologize if this topic was covered in the Q&A. I only read about half of it.

[Richard Berg]

In my view, K held Henderson back this season
Do you have a source for this? It goes against everything I know about Coach K and G.

[Karl Beem]

Do you have a source for this? It goes against everything I know about Coach K and G.

Agreed. It's totally laughable.

[johnnydakota]

Luckily for every NBA team you're not a GM....

McBob is only one year older than GH (nearly as much "upside" as GH), 6'10" and athletic, has ball-handling skills, great passing skills for a big man, and a decent shot. He needs to moderately improve his strength, jumpshot, and low-post moves and if he does this successfully he's an NBA All-Star. McBob has an incredible amount of talent. Once he utilizes it he will be great. Also, McBob will go relatively high because guys like him are rare, especially compared to athletic 6'4" guards (who can't pass). I don't ever see GH as a lottery pick (although I hope he proves me wrong).

You took the words right out of my mouth. I believe Henderson has NBA potential, but guys like him are much easier to find than guys like McRoberts. Henderson will need to become a much better shooter as well. Right now, what does he do that any 6'4" player in the league can't? Josh is outstanding at several things for a player his size. If McRoberts stays healthy and gets stronger, he will become an excellent pro.