Phase VI - 2009

[Jumbo]

It's aptly titled, isn't it? Phase VI, after all, is the start of the hopeful journey toward six straight NCAA Tourney wins. In the spirit of Coach K's two-game tournament philosophy, we'll consider this phase the first and second rounds of the Tourney in Greensboro. Here's what I'll be watching, and hopefully we'll be able to talk about a Phase VII after the weekend.

How will Duke play with a lead?
People tend to forget that against West Virginia last year, Duke was up 18-8, and still led by five at the half. And against VCU, Duke went up 13 early actually led by 11 with 10:44 to play. It's not like Duke didn't have a chance to take control of either of those much-lamented losses. But the team didn't hold strong and didn't play well with a lead.
This team has been excellent in close games this year. But at times it has struggled to put teams away early. Even the FSU game -- where Duke played fantastic basketball -- was an example of Duke pushing the lead up, then allowing FSU to make things interesting. So, if the guys get a lead in this game, will they be hungry to keep pushing ahead, building on it, securing a blowout? That has to be the attitude -- win every four-minute burst. They should be pretty darn confident in themselves at this point. Teams with that kind of confidence take control and put the other team away.

What is Elliot's answer?
So, teams have found a way to defend him -- play off him and make him shoot jumpers. And he can jab step all he wants, but if he tries to drive into that kind of defense, he's asking for trouble. So, he and the staff have two options. They can either tell Elliot to let it fly with no hesitation (and the threes he has knocked down this year have come in rhythm, rather than when he's standing around wide open). Or, Duke can make Elliot into a passer/screener, which puts an awful lot of pressure on the other guys out there.
Nolan's a better player right now, and I'm convinced he'll play more minutes. But Elliot is still an important part of the mix. We need his D. We need his offensive rebounding. We need his athleticism. But he has to find a way to either contribute offfensively, or not get in the way of others. Let's see how he responds.

Zoubek -- was the FSU game a rebirth or a blip?
I feel as if we keep asking this question. But I've felt all season that a dose of Zoubek each game is very important. I know he has matchup problems. I know the team isn't even looking for him inside anymore. I know he's had some poor games. But his size changes the game. Even if it's just for 10 minutes, it matters. I hope Brian can build on what he did against Florida State. The team will need him in the Tourney, and it will be great if he can maintain some consistency. Say what you will, but his plus/minus is outstanding and he was a major factor for much of the season. He needs to play with confidence and force K to keep him out on the floor.

What does Duke look like against unfamiliar foes?
Duke's been going up against ACC foes for a long time now. The scouting is easy. Everyone knows everyone else. Now, it gets different. How will we respond to some odd strategy and unfamiliar personnel? And how will other teams prepare for the way Duke plays? Will the games look different than the ACC contents?

Can Nolan Smith build on the ACC Tournament?
If Nolan really embraces his new role, I think this could be a special tourney for him. He's the titular sixth-man right now, but is likely to play starter's minutes. Scheyer is the "point guard," but Smith still handles the ball a lot and will defending opposing points. But Nolan seems as if he's coming off the bench with newfound aggressiveness at both ends. If he just worries on pressurin the heck out of the ball on D (without fouling) and knocking down jumpers/attacking the hoop on offense, that's more than enough. He can be incredibly valuabe to this team going forward if he maintains the right approach. He certainly has the skills.

Can the team finish plays?
This is really simple. In a one-and-done situation, there's not much room for error. So the put-backs we've been missing? We've gotta stick them in the bucket. The 30 seconds of great D we've played, only to allow an open look at the end of the shot clock? Gotta clamp down for the full 35. And the stops we do get? Gotta grab the rebounds instead of just tapping them. We're in position to make a lot of plays. We just have to finish them now.

Defense -- is it Duke's calling card again?
I was shocked by how much better the defense appeared to look in the ACC Tournament. So, was that a mirage against three offensively challenged opponents? Or have we made some adjustments that can continue to pay dividends against better teams? If defense is our backbone, it makes everything else easier.

What does Duke do if the jumpers aren't falling?
Yes, you've gotta keep shooting. But how much effort will K make to mix things up? Will K post Henderson more? Singler? Scheyer on a small point guard? Use Zoubek a bit more? If this situation arises during this phase, it will be interesting to see how K adjusts.

Are Henderson, Scheyer and Singler money at this point?
I certainly think so. If you think back to the previous two tournaments, it's hard to think about where Duke wanted to go for a big basket. Two years ago, we'd feed McRoberts, but he wasn't really a scorer. Last season, we'd drive and kick, but none of the guys had separated himself from the pack, had a go-to move, had total confidence that he could finish against anyone. Singler was worn down. Nelson was struggling. G was hurt. Scheyer was coming off the bench. I don't believe that you have to have a go-to guy, but you need to have players you can count on to bail you out in any situation, against any opponent. This year, I believe we have three of those guys. They've shown that all season. If things get tough, we know where the ball is going. That's good. Now these guys just have to keep delivering.

Let's hope for the best. Go Duke!

[Neals384]

Great points, Jumbo.

Another key is Lance, IMHO. He has been anything from very, very good to invisible this year. We need his interior D, rebounding and offensive putbacks.

[Lauty Da]

While this was touched on in a couple points, what kind of contribution are we going to see from our bench? To make a deep run and win 4, 5, 6 games, we need solid offensive AND defensive contributions from our bench. Can the combo of Nolan, Zoubs, McClure, and Paulus give us that?

[ice-9]

Defense -- is it Duke's calling card again?
I was shocked by how much better the defense appeared to look in the ACC Tournament. So, was that a mirage against three offensively challenged opponents? Or have we made some adjustments that can continue to pay dividends against better teams? If defense is our backbone, it makes everything else easier.

I too was surprised by how good we looked -- though I was also surprised how bad our D was in that stretch of ACC losses -- but I have confidence that the renewed D is real.

While on the whole BC, Maryland and FSU aren't fantastic offensive teams, they do have superior guards who can penetrate and create for others (Douglas, Vasquez, Rice). So that we were able to defend well in those games is a good sign that our D is back.

[jma4life]

Jumbo and others,

what do you guys think about how Elliot played defensively in the ACC tournament. Did you notice progress on the whole from his first few games where he excelled man to man but seemed to get lost in switches and off the ball at times?


Also, in the ACC tournament, did anyone else think that Smith had an extra step? He seemed to be doing a much better job of staying in front of his man. And although he wasn't going up against Lawson, some of the guards he was defending were speedsters who he did pretty good against.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Jumbo and others,

what do you guys think about how Elliot played defensively in the ACC tournament. Did you notice progress on the whole from his first few games where he excelled man to man but seemed to get lost in switches and off the ball at times?


Also, in the ACC tournament, did anyone else think that Smith had an extra step? He seemed to be doing a much better job of staying in front of his man. And although he wasn't going up against Lawson, some of the guards he was defending were speedsters who he did pretty good against.


I think Elliot played well, i still think there was a few times where he got lost on switches and he still needs to work on not fouling while his man is bringing the ball up. Although, I am all for his intensity, but you can't go at people like that all the time.

On Nolan, I think his time recovering from his concussion was good for him and helped him to get an extra step. I think going against Tony Douglas is just as good if not better way to judge where you are than going up against Lawson. And for the most part he did well. On his offense he gets to play off the ball a little more now and it has helped his game. Plus people are sagging off of him for some reason while he has a decent Jumper. he can be a real key for Duke in the tourney.

[Bob Green]

A great Phase VI analysis but I would add another point: the bench players will contribute in a myriad of ways and we need points to be one of the ways.

Dave McClure has a nose for the ball and is a great weakside rebounder. He will need to score some points in the Tourney like he did in the game against Maryland. A back door cut for a dunk or an offensive rebound and putback is all I'm talking about. Four or five points from McClure will go a long way.

Zoubek didn't score a single point in the ACCT but he played great. He needs to build off his ACCT performance and score a couple of baskets along the way. Defense and rebounds are definitely the main thing we need from Zoubek but he really needs to score a couple of baskets a game. Zoubek has been good from the free throw line this season so dumping the ball inside in an attempt to get Zoubek to the line might be a successful strategy. Against talented teams, Zoubek normally works out of the high post on offense but I still want to see him score off of offensive rebounds. Again, I'm only talking about four or five points a game consistent with the amount of playing time.

Greg Paulus will probably see limited minutes as long as Williams and Smith stay healthy. They are simply far superior defenders than Paulus and Duke is a defense first team. However, when Paulus finds himself on the floor, we need him to stretch the opponents defense by knocking down some threes.

Nolan Smith will play the most minutes of all our bench players and I expect he will score points that compare with the starters. Ten points a game off the bench for Nolan Smith wouldn't suprise me!

[mgtr]

I agree with the preceding points, but want to add that McClure is so important to our clamp-down defense that we definitely need to get something from him on offense. Maybe a play or two designed for him to get to the hoop. Maybe even a G-type alley oop. I don't know what the right play is, but I would love to see it.

[Saratoga2]

It's aptly titled, isn't it? Phase VI, after all, is the start of the hopeful journey toward six straight NCAA Tourney wins. In the spirit of Coach K's two-game tournament philosophy, we'll consider this phase the first and second rounds of the Tourney in Greensboro. Here's what I'll be watching, and hopefully we'll be able to talk about a Phase VII after the weekend.

How will Duke play with a lead?
While we found ways to buiild leads, we then seemed to get into a predictable offense, such as to go to Henderson and have him try to hit a shot. Scheyer would stop trying to make offensive plays and Singler and Henderson were getting double teamed. Henderson in particular needs to learn to avoid forcing the ball in those situations. Having a 4th option in Nolan and expecting more offense from Scheyer in those situations could stretch the other teams defense. Also, with Zoubek, Smith, Scheyer, Henderson and Singler in the game, we ought to get around 75 % at the free three line or better. For some reason, we seem to have problems there during our stretch of losing leads. Smith and Sheyer are in the high 80% while the others are over 70%, so they need to hold their form.


What is Elliot's answer?
Agreed, either Elliot needs to be able to hit a reasonable number of jumpers or he needs to alter his game to avoid taking them and work with a coach this summer to become dangerous with his outside shot. He is still a valuable player but right now Smith appears to offer more offense and he is also a good defender.


Zoubek -- was the FSU a rebirth or a blip?
Zoubek needs to be played in a way that he is able to get back on defense. He is used at the top of the post to distribute and set screens since he seems to have no effective inside game and the team will not go to him. The way he is used offensively, he has trouble getting back for offensive rebounds and putbacks. Also he has to avoid the moving screens that he seems to be applying of late.

What does Duke look like against unfamiliar foes?
That is a matter of coaching and Duke has a fine coaching staff so I see no issue.

Can Nolan Smith build on the ACC Tournament?
Nolan is a good relief valve for the big three. His has an offensive game and can make the other teams pay if they decide to double any of our big three. He also has the speed to get out on the break and if what he said is true, that he has learned from sitting and watching Scheyer, his handle and play making may be significantly improved.

Can the team finish plays?
The put backs we have been missing are largely related to our bigs not being good around the basket. I don't see that improving. As far as defense, picking up a reaching in foul or overrunning a play with 5 seconds left on the clock are no no's. Also, I think neither Zoubek or Thomas are good at blocking people out and getting rebounds. I think we also need to determine is Thomas has mobility after suffering the high ankle sprain. Without mobiliity, his key asset, he becomes a serious liability out there.

Defense -- is it Duke's calling card again?
Just having Williams and Smith healthy gives our defense a high energy aspect and great speed to keep the ball pressured. Scheyer, Singler and Henderson can then cut off passing lanes and get steals. I think our defense has gotten better. just with those two in the lineup. Zoubek's presence has also helped with the interior defense. I hate to see him used well away from the basket.

What does Duke do if the jumpers aren't falling?
We are still weak with our inside game. If teams collapse on us we have a big problem if we can't hit from outside. I think we have very little choice but to hit jumpers and try to get practice time in the arena so we don't go in totally cold.

Are Henderson, Scheyer and Singler money at this point?
Scheyer and Singler will produce unless doubled. Henderson will also produce and probably in a big way, but he has also played poorly at times by forcing his game. With Nolan as a 4th option, he and the team need to recognize when the defense neutralizes his offense, and adjust with another player picking up the burden of scoring. No many teams can boast of 4 reliable scorers, so we tend to have an advantage. Low turnovers, good shot selection, good foul shooting and some rebounding will make us formidable offensively.






Let's hope for the best. Go Duke!


See my comments above

[NSDukeFan]

A great Phase VI analysis but I would add another point: the bench players will contribute in a myriad of ways and we need points to be one of the ways.

Dave McClure has a nose for the ball and is a great weakside rebounder. He will need to score some points in the Tourney like he did in the game against Maryland. A back door cut for a dunk or an offensive rebound and putback is all I'm talking about. Four or five points from McClure will go a long way.

Zoubek didn't score a single point in the ACCT but he played great. He needs to build off his ACCT performance and score a couple of baskets along the way. Defense and rebounds are definitely the main thing we need from Zoubek but he really needs to score a couple of baskets a game. Zoubek has been good from the free throw line this season so dumping the ball inside in an attempt to get Zoubek to the line might be a successful strategy. Against talented teams, Zoubek normally works out of the high post on offense but I still want to see him score off of offensive rebounds. Again, I'm only talking about four or five points a game consistent with the amount of playing time.

Greg Paulus will probably see limited minutes as long as Williams and Smith stay healthy. They are simply far superior defenders than Paulus and Duke is a defense first team. However, when Paulus finds himself on the floor, we need him to stretch the opponents defense by knocking down some threes.

Nolan Smith will play the most minutes of all our bench players and I expect he will score points that compare with the starters. Ten points a game off the bench for Nolan Smith wouldn't suprise me!

Great points Jumbo, and I like Bob's addition of bench play in general. I, too like the contributions that Zoubek makes. He may have quickness limitation, but he has height advantages and his presence inside is often very helpful. I loved McClure's couple of hoops against Florida St. when the opportunity presented itself and would love to see a bit of that in future games. I would love to see Greg come off for an emotional spark and shooting. I am also interested in Lance's contribution as that could be a wildcard.
It is nice to see our D established again and would be nice to see a defensive statement in this tournament, so that it doesn't matter if we shoot well or not.
Go Duke

[jv001]

Once again good points Jumbo. My take:
Playing with a lead..I look for this team to be agressive just as they were in the ACC tourney. This will of course depend on foul trouble and Coach K's putting them into the delay game.
Elliot's answer. This was a problem in the ACC tournament when teams gave Elliot the open 3 point shot to keep him from driving the ball. Nolan came through like a champ for us in relief. I look for Coach K to tell Elliot to shoot if he's open and do not hesitate. If he makes a couple, it will do wonders for his confidence and we will be off and running.
Zoubs..I believe Brian will pick up where he left off in the ACCT. He knows his role and will stick to the basics. Defense, set screens and rebound the BB. He will be key to our success in the NCAAs.
Nolan will build from the ACCT. His confidence is sky high and I think he learned alot from watching Jon run the offense while he sat.
Finish plays..this worries me. We have all season seemed to miss point blank shots at the rim and miss put backs. We must finish the defensive stop with a rebound. Lance must get strong and not lose the boards he gets his hands on. Same with Zoubs.
Defense our calling card..I certainly hope so. I don't see us scoring in the 90's or even in the 80's against second round opponents. We had better play D like we did at the beginning of the year and in the ACCT.
Are the Big 3 money?..definitely. Jon, Kyle and Gerald are playing very well. This is the first time in a long time that we have had 3 go to guys at NCAA tournament time ( Atleast healthy & hot). I'm excited. Go Duke!

[miramar]

Good points as always.

The situation with Williams in the ACC seeemed unusual. He has only made25% on three pointers, but he seems much more comfortable lately. He should get in his rhythm and and put some shots up.

Although Feinsten seems to think that Duke is only slightly better this year, as noted having three main offensive options is a huge difference. And if either Williams or Smith or Paulus can contribute, better still.

Duke has been relying on the the three pointer a lot, but I think the most important question is whether the team is simply launching shots (like the second Michigan game) or taking the shots within the flow of the offense (as in the ACC Tournament). I think that Coach K calls these connecting shots, and Duke is very successful when they do that well.

[Rudy]

Against FSU in the tournament, Elliot seemed to lose some offensive confidence when his 1st drive shot was blocked by one of the towering trees. Even when he drove again he shot an arching hook, and missed, instead of going straight to the hoop. They weren't just giving him the three, they were giving him the mid-range jumpers, too. I hope he gets the green light and hits a couple of them early.

Alibi was completely buffaloed by Zoubek, because he had prepared to go over LT instead of around. Lateral quickness is Z's weakness on defense and Alibi couldn't adjust. The variation on defensive strengths between LT and Z was effective. I hope it continues to be. Seeing the difference in FSU's offensive game from

I hope when Greg gets in he goes for threes just outside the line instead of 6 feet outside. He doesn't need to electrify everyone, just knock a few down.

[Bob Green]

Duke has been relying on the the three pointer a lot, but I think the most important question is whether the team is simply launching shots (like the second Michigan game) or taking the shots within the flow of the offense (as in the ACC Tournament).

This is a key point. If we are launching threes at the end of the shot clock because the offense is stagnant, warning bells should be going off. Taking threes when the players are moving and the ball is moving and the shots are available should cause warning bells for our opponent. The offense must flow.

[Zeke]

I've thought that the road to the NCAA lays through Brian. We've all seen days when the 3's don't fall for a game or a half. It's maddening, but that's basketball. Everyone in the nation knows Duke is a 3 shooting team and when their hot their nearly impossible to beat. So, guess what, these teams are going to defense the 3. I would think that having an inside game as a Plan B, or a believable option to the 3 would 1) add scoring when the 3's ain't falling or 2) make the defense more honest on their defense against the 3.
I've heard a lot of criticisms against Brian which I think are unjustified. He plays what the coaches tell him to play namely: set up screens, get rebounds as much as possible - hard when you are trying to get rebounds on 3's that go to the foul line, and guard the big men.
Is there anyone in the nation that doesn't know that Duke plays a tight switching man/man. Guess what. Their big man sets a high screen. Brian follows him out and their guard brushes off the screen and Duke switches with Brian guarding a guard beyond the circle and our guard guarding the big man. Can we all together say MISMATCH. It seems that that criticism of Brian here should more appropriately be directed against the coaches. Other teams in this same situation don't switch or they recover VERY quickly
Brian is, about the 2nd or 3rd best foul shooter and a very good scorer if you figure on a points per minute basis - which is awesome considering that the only attempts he gets are junk baskets on rebounds - usually with one or two defenders hanging on him.
His first year he had a lot of turnovers which he hasn't had this year. He gets some fouls but that might change if he knew he was expected to play 25 minutes not 8-9 or less.
He could very much make the difference in the NCAA

[Rudy]

Brian is, about the 2nd or 3rd best foul shooter and a very good scorer if you figure on a points per minute basis - which is awesome considering that the only attempts he gets are junk baskets on rebounds - usually with one or two defenders hanging on him.
His first year he had a lot of turnovers which he hasn't had this year. He gets some fouls but that might change if he knew he was expected to play 25 minutes not 8-9 or less.
He could very much make the difference in the NCAA

I am a fan of Brian's but to expect him to be a significant scorer at this point this year is unrealistic. Scoring, even in the low post, is a low priority for him. Maybe that is coaching staff driven but I wouldn't expect a change this season. A few times on pick and rolls, he has not been looking for the ball on the roll. I have seen him miss passes by EW and Nolan when they drove to the rim and drew Z's defender.

On a couple of occasions in the ACC tournament, Brian received the ball in the low post without a close defender and his hesitation in going to the basket allowed a defender to close on him. The best we can hope for in this tournament is for him to help control the scoring from the bigs on the other team, grab rebounds or (more likely) tip rebounds to teammates, and follow teammates' shots with offensive rebounds and maybe putbacks.

[Zeke]

What can I say, except that I disagree. What I've see is someone driving the lane - going 1 or 2 steps too far and throwing a desperation pass to anyone who might be able to catch it (Duke or opponent). Brian gave it his best shot and to be frank made some good plays to even get a hand on it. I think Greg was the worst, but all the outside players are guilty of this. It's hard to make a pass when you're driving for a score, suddenly find that you're over your head, find a receiver, and pass it. If that's Brian's fault then so be it, but I think it's the driver's fault for getting in the middle over his head - not smart. Jump stop and shoot a jumper 2 steps earlier or pass without desperation.
I have lots more but She-Who-Must_Be_Obeyed calls for supper.
















9

[Newton_14]

I honestly thought that in the ACC Tourney, especially against FSU, Zoubs "moved" better than I have ever seen him. He was finally able to hedge out on the high screen and recover quickly to the lane. I have never seen him be able to do that.

If he can continue to play the kind of defense we saw on Sunday, he can be very helpful to this team. Even if it's just 15 minutes a game. Forget the offense part, all he really needs to do there is set good, legal screens, and make teams work to get rebounds. His plus/minus numbers are more a credit to what he brings on defense more so than offense.

[DukieInBrasil]

it seems that we have become a team of 3 different groups of 3 players, which works well as K has been playing 9 guys pretty regularly all season. We´ve got the trio of Jon-Gerald-Kyle, the Big Three, or whatever. Then there´s the froncourt trio of Dave-LT-Z and the backcourt trio of Nolan-EWill-Greg.
The trio of JGK is playing very well now but we need a bit more from both of our other trios for us to get very far. The 19 rebounds from DLZ in the ACC Finals was awesome.
The backcourt trio needs to get going again, tho Nolan´s injury is obviously no longer a problem. We need Greg to get back to being a positive factor.

[COYS]

What is Elliot's answer?
So, teams have found a way to defend him -- play off him and make him shoot jumpers. And he can jab step all he wants, but if he tries to drive into that kind of defense, he's asking for trouble. So, he and the staff have two options. They can either tell Elliot to let it fly with no hesitation (and the threes he has knocked down this year have come in rhythm, rather than when he's standing around wide open). Or, Duke can make Elliot into a passer/screener, which puts an awful lot of pressure on the other guys out there.
Nolan's a better player right now, and I'm convinced he'll play more minutes. But Elliot is still an important part of the mix. We need his D. We need his offensive rebounding. We need his athleticism. But he has to find a way to either contribute offfensively, or not get in the way of others. Let's see how he responds.

Can Nolan Smith build on the ACC Tournament?
If Nolan really embraces his new role, I think this could be a special tourney for him. He's the titular sixth-man right now, but is likely to play starter's minutes. Scheyer is the "point guard," but Smith still handles the ball a lot and will defending opposing points. But Nolan seems as if he's coming off the bench with newfound aggressiveness at both ends. If he just worries on pressurin the heck out of the ball on D (without fouling) and knocking down jumpers/attacking the hoop on offense, that's more than enough. He can be incredibly valuabe to this team going forward if he maintains the right approach. He certainly has the skills.



Elliot and Nolan both responded in big ways, today. Neither was perfect, but both showed that they are up for the challenge of taking on new roles. Their energy level was terrific. Nolan was aggressive on both offense and defense, attacking the hoop and pressuring the ball without fouling. Elliot played great defense (with a few silly freshman fouls) and was also aggressive on the offensive glass. It's almost easy to forget how good we can be when Nolan's on his game. It's been a difficult season for him as he's adjusted to a new role and struggled with poor form and the concussion. But between the ACCT and tonight's game, it's clear that none of that can prevent him from showcasing his talents in the NCAAT. It's almost like getting a whole new player for the team.

[Rudy]

What can I say, except that I disagree. What I've see is someone driving the lane - going 1 or 2 steps too far and throwing a desperation pass to anyone who might be able to catch it (Duke or opponent). Brian gave it his best shot and to be frank made some good plays to even get a hand on it. I think Greg was the worst, but all the outside players are guilty of this.

I'm probably prejudiced because I was a guard in h.s.:)

[Zeke]

Bless you Rudy, I am just as prejudice as I was a "back to the basket" post - back in the day- in HS. I'm more sympathetic in what Brian is being asked to do.

[BlueintheFace]

I think Greg was the worst, but all the outside players are guilty of this. It's hard to make a pass when you're driving for a score, suddenly find that you're over your head, find a receiver, and pass it.

Greg Paulus very very VERY rarely drives the lane LOOKING for his shot and gets stuck there. In fact, I can't think of a single time that this has happened recently. Greg drives the lane IN ORDER TO pass to the perimeter. Evidence of this can be found in the many times he has practically been wide open under the basket only to find a shooter on the wing. He knows that he doesn't finish well in the lane, and so doesn't look to do so unless it is a fast break or off of a broken play/wide open lane to the hoop.

[devildownunder]

Can the team finish plays?
This is really simple. In a one-and-done situation, there's not much room for error. So the put-backs we've been missing? We've gotta stick them in the bucket. The 30 seconds of great D we've played, only to allow an open look at the end of the shot clock? Gotta clamp down for the full 35. And the stops we do get? Gotta grab the rebounds instead of just tapping them. We're in position to make a lot of plays. We just have to finish them now.


Let's hope for the best. Go Duke!


As a part of finishing, we also need to make better decisions in transition. We are not your classic fast-break team right now but when we get a turnover and have a 2-on-1 or 3-1, we need to be able to take advantage of it. Unfortunately, the one criticism I do have of Scheyer's incredible work at the point is that his decisions on the break do tend to leave quite a bit to be desired. His efficiency in those situations will need to improve if we are to continue to advance into the 2nd and 3rd weekends.

[Jumbo]

How will Duke play with a lead?
This is still an area of concern. Duke led the whole way, but never put Texas away. In the second half, that was largely the result of being unable to get key stops. Then again, at the point where Duke got up 10 in the second half, Abrams missed a three and we got the rebound, I felt like Duke was about to put the game away. Instead, that late foul came against Singler, Abrams got three FTs and the whole game changed. The team needs to do a better job of turning a mini-spurt into a patented Duke run.

What is Elliot's answer?
Well, he's not really launching threes anymore. And he's driving into trouble. Right now, on offense, Elliot's best bet is to be a screener and a garbage man on the offensive glass and a release valve as a ball-handler. He needs to move the ball quicker, and clearly he's not being counted on to score.

Zoubek -- was the FSU game a rebirth or a blip?
It was neither. What I'm now realizing is that there are "Zoubek Games" and "McClure Games." Against a particularly big team (like Texas or FSU), Zoubek will get a lot more work, and McClure's minutes will decline. Against most other opponents, McClure will play a lot and Zoubek will get spot duty. This makes sense -- Zoubek is not an offensive factor, so it's not as if we'll look for him to post and score against smaller opponents. But he's doing a good job of using his size disrupt bigger guys. He just needs to foul less.

What does Duke look like against unfamiliar foes?
Duke seemed to do pretty well from a scouting/gameplan/strategy perspective. K took the right approach on Abrams and did, in fact, look to get Gerald the ball in the post against Texas' smaller guards. That said, Duke never had an answer when Texas went small, spread the floor, and attacked one-on-one.

Can Nolan Smith build on the ACC Tournament?
Yup. He's clearly our fourth-best player now. Period. Nothing more to say, other than keep it up. The kid is playing great basketball.

Can the team finish plays?
This is still a problem. Duke's missing too many shots at the rim. Duke's fumbling too many rebounds. Duke's allowing a score or an offensive rebound after 30 seconds of terrific defense too often. Duke's missing too many wide-open jumpers off good ball movement. I don't expect perfection. But when you're doing everything else well to generate the desired action, you have to finish a higher pecentage of those plays.

Defense -- is it Duke's calling card again?
Not quite. The lack of big stops in the second half against Texas was concerning. Smith and Williams are fouling too often on the perimeter, and we saw what happened with Thomas, Singler and Zoubek. That said, the overall approach -- especially in the first half -- was good, and the D has improved since the second half of the ACC regular season.

What does Duke do if the jumpers aren't falling?
Well, we saw a good example with Gerald, who shot only 7-for-21, but attacked the rim. That was good. Singler, too, was willing to take it to the basket. As I mentioned, K ran some plays for Henderson in the post. There's at least some variety there.

Are Henderson, Scheyer and Singler money at this point?
Yes. Look, these guys can go cold in a game, just like anyone. But they've shown -- time and again -- that they'll put themselves in positions to make huge plays. They're extremely talented and they play as hard as anyone, anywhere. We can count on them in the clutch. If they're off some game, so be it. But as they showed again during Phase VI, they'll bring it down the stretch of a tight game.

[Zeke]

Greg Paulus very very VERY rarely drives the lane LOOKING for his shot and gets stuck there. In fact, I can't think of a single time that this has happened recently. Greg drives the lane IN ORDER TO pass to the perimeter. Evidence of this can be found in the many times he has practically been wide open under the basket only to find a shooter on the wing. He knows that he doesn't finish well in the lane, and so doesn't look to do so unless it is a fast break or off of a broken play/wide open lane to the hoop.

Blue, you are right, it hasn't happened recently. BUT, I am practically bald because I pulled my hair out watching this happen time after time for 3 1/2 yrs. I am not talking about the passes to the perimeter but the passes where he can't get it out to the perimeter and tries to pass to ANYONE in the area - a desperation pass. I've see this many many times albeit not since Eliot became a starter.

[House G]

Duke seems to be making a point of trying to isolate GH more so than ever before, which obviously makes sense. Are there any facets of Duke's offense that Coach K may have incorporated or is using more frequently because of his Olympic experience working with NBA coaches/players? I am sure someone with more X and O knowledge than I can tell us if we are using some of these Mike D'Antoni plays (note the reference to K, GH, KS): http://bleacherreport.com/articles/138984-mike-dantoni-coached-offense-with-phoenix-suns-and-new-york-knicks

[dukelifer]

[B][I]Can the team finish plays?
This is still a problem. Duke's missing too many shots at the rim. Duke's fumbling too many rebounds. Duke's allowing a score or an offensive rebound after 30 seconds of terrific defense too often. Duke's missing too many wide-open jumpers off good ball movement. I don't expect perfection. But when you're doing everything else well to generate the desired action, you have to finish a higher pecentage of those plays.

Having watched a billion games the past 4 days- it is clear that Duke does not have the muscle or size of many of the teams in this tournament. But they can counter by executing on both sides of the court. Giving up offensive rebounds has been problematic and sometimes this is just forgetting to box out or being out of position. This team is at their best when they attack the basket and make the extra pass. Often time, Thomas and McClure are wide open near the rim and the extra pass is not made. Of course it is hard to be perfect all the time- but with this team- execution and focus is the key to moving on.

[mike88]

Jumbo wrote: Zoubek -- was the FSU game a rebirth or a blip?
It was neither. What I'm now realizing is that there are "Zoubek Games" and "McClure Games." Against a particularly big team (like Texas or FSU), Zoubek will get a lot more work, and McClure's minutes will decline. Against most other opponents, McClure will play a lot and Zoubek will get spot duty. This makes sense -- Zoubek is not an offensive factor, so it's not as if we'll look for him to post and score against smaller opponents. But he's doing a good job of using his size disrupt bigger guys. He just needs to foul less.

I would agree that Zoubek is not an offensive threat to score many points, but he provides one key skill- no one on our team can set a pick like him! Although he got called for one offensive foul against Texas, his screens for the last two weeks have done a remarkable job of giving our guys (mainly Gerald, but sometimes Jon, too) space to operate. Considering that we are running the sideline screen (the play they call 'power") about half or more of the time, this has a pretty big impact offensively.