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View Full Version : Duke and UNC vs. Tourney Field



TwoDukeTattoos
03-18-2009, 05:43 AM
Duke's Strength of Schedule is ranked #1 in the country; this is evident even when comparing the games that Duke and UNC have played vs. other Tourney teams. Check this:

Duke has played a whopping 17 games vs. 9 tourney teams with an average seeding of 5.89. Their record vs. these teams is 11-6, which encompasses all of their losses, for a winning pct. of .650.

UNC has played only 10 games vs. 7 tourney teams with an average seeding of 5.29. Their record vs. these teams is 6-4, which encompasses all of their losses, for a winning pct. of .600.

Summary: Half of Duke's schedule was played vs. tourney teams, 17. UNC played nearly half that amount yet has a slightly lower winning percentage vs. those teams than does Duke.

So you tell me, who's ready to dance?

Go Duke.

CameronBornAndBred
03-18-2009, 08:10 AM
Interesting but not suprising given that unc fills their pre-January schedule with cupcakes. I wish being more battle tested means that Duke is the better prepared team, but I think at this point of the year both teams are ready. I'm hoping that what will prove true is that Duke is better prepared to perform in tight games and come from behind scenarios, as we had more of those than carolina. I can't remember the exact number of games we were down at the half, (some by large margins) and pulled it out. That being said, we were up on carolina during both of our contests at the half and we all know what happened with those.

bjornolf
03-18-2009, 08:51 AM
I think one of the most interesting parts of this tourney will be watching THE TOE. If THE TOE is healthy and can play in every game, Carolina's going a LONG way. If THE TOE gets all swolled up and has to miss significant time in every game, Carolina doesn't get past the elite 8, maybe even the sweet 16. I think elite 8 is more likely, cause THE TOE will probably play in the first game (sweet 16), then be hindered in the second game (elite 8).

It's all about THE TOE. Kind of appropriate from a team that calls themselves the heels. ;)

arnie
03-18-2009, 08:54 AM
And the real reasons we played so many games than the Heels against tourney teams:

1)The unbalanced schedule - our ACC regular/tournament schedule did not include multiple games against any of the dregs, VA, State,GA T, or Miami.

2) We chose to play in the ACC tournament finals.

davekay1971
03-18-2009, 09:05 AM
I was amused that, on the CBS selection show, there was much blathering about how Memphis didn't deserve a 1 seed because of their paltry record against the RPI top 50 (4-2). This was shortly following much blathering about how surprising it was that Carolina wasn't the overall top seed. They had a pretty graphic up comparing Memphis's performance against the RPI top 50 compared to the 4 1 seeds. Kerlina's performance against the RPI top 50? A whopping 5-2, so verrrrrry different from Memphis's 4-2.

Kedsy
03-18-2009, 09:44 AM
I was amused that, on the CBS selection show, there was much blathering about how Memphis didn't deserve a 1 seed because of their paltry record against the RPI top 50 (4-2). This was shortly following much blathering about how surprising it was that Carolina wasn't the overall top seed. They had a pretty graphic up comparing Memphis's performance against the RPI top 50 compared to the 4 1 seeds. Kerlina's performance against the RPI top 50? A whopping 5-2, so verrrrrry different from Memphis's 4-2.

Memphis is only 1-2 vs. the top 25. My guess is the wonks in the back wanted to put that stat up and then one of the talking heads said, no make it top 50, without realizing it ruined the point.

davekay1971
03-18-2009, 09:49 AM
Memphis is only 1-2 vs. the top 25. My guess is the wonks in the back wanted to put that stat up and then one of the talking heads said, no make it top 50, without realizing it ruined the point.

Makes sense to me. The talking heads seem to be too busy talking to actually think about what comes out of their mouths.

InSpades
03-18-2009, 10:14 AM
When you realize that 2 of Memphis' 4 wins vs. the RPI top 50 are against UAB (a team that didn't even make the bubble) it looks far worse for them. They really had no business getting a #1 seed.

It's also kind of a sham that Louisville got the #1 seed overall considering they had 5 losses and a SoS much worse than the rest of the top teams. It would've been hard for them to pick an easier Big East schedule and then Pitt and UConn went and bombed out in the quarters of the BET.

pfrduke
03-18-2009, 12:09 PM
Interesting note from this year's tournament - only three schools did not lose a game to a team that did not make the NCAA tournament: Duke, UNC, and Gonzaga. Gonzaga was a close call - Portland State (who beat the Zags in December) did not finish the regular season in first place in the Big Sky, but won the tournament to get the auto-bid. The teams that beat Duke and UNC - Michigan, Wake, UNC, BC, Maryland, Clemson, and Florida State - are all on the 10 line or higher. That's a fantastic job of beating the teams you're supposed to beat (those not good enough to make the NCAAT).

gumbomoop
03-18-2009, 12:14 PM
And the real reasons we played so many games than the Heels against tourney teams:

1)The unbalanced schedule - our ACC regular/tournament schedule did not include multiple games against any of the dregs, VA, State,GA T, or Miami.

2) We chose to play in the ACC tournament finals.

"Chose to play" is a wonderful, wonderful line. Arnie is definitely still the king!

And Arnie's also spot on re unbalanced schedule. Though I would not myself include Miami in the dregs, I wondered pretty regularly during the season how come we always (recently?) get a damn tough unbalanced schedule.

I suppose one might have predicted back in October that Md would finish below GT and NC St, and therefore we got a "break" there, but it didn't turn out that way. And it was universally assumed that UVa would be at bottom, so whichever teams got them twice had an advantage, namely, VT and Md (understandable "rivals"), and FSU, Clemson, and ..... ta da...... UNC (which also got a boost from getting NC St twice and Clemson, FSU, and Wake once).

Overall, then, Clemson had easiest unbalanced road, so their end-season slump looks bad and their demolishing of Duke looks ..... like Duke, far more than UNC, gets everyone's best shot. Clemson's 7-seed, really, is mostly attributable to that one game. Otherwise maybe they'd be a 9-10.

Duke and FSU seem to have had the toughest schedules, so FSU's fine season means Hamilton probably did deserve COY and Douglas deserved at least co-POY. And Duke's slump [devastation at LIttlejohn, eke victory over non-dreg Miami, losses at UNC and BC] certainly had me worried, just as the 8-1 end-season recovery has me optimistic.

It is interesting that, by several criteria, Duke really is as good as anybody. Until our 8-1 comeback, I didn't believe that. But, like all of you, I've been paying attention. As opposed to the TV talking heads, who can think only of our possible flaws: no traditional point guard, no interior go-to, too dependent on 3's.

They're quite clueless about how good Scheyer is, because he's unspectacular [except when making spectacular plays]. They really haven't thought about what Nolan's return has meant. They've heard, and occasionally repeat, that DMc's a "glue guy," but they've no idea that he gives us 3-4 extra possessions per game. [Pause here: Does any other team have a guy with Scheyer's court-awareness or DMc's glue? Any?] They know from nothin' about the specifics of the unbalanced problem, nor are they capable of digging into SOS and RPI to look for specifics. They're certainly lazy and ignorant, possibly stupid.

bjornolf
03-18-2009, 12:35 PM
Did anybody hear Skip Bayless basically call out Roy Williams this morning? Basically called him a liar, saying he was crafty and playing possum over the Ty Lawson toe incident. It was great.

I also heard one of them, I think it was Bayless but I could be wrong, say that even WITH Ty Lawson, he thought they were falling to Gonzaga, and without Ty, he thinks they'll have trouble getting past a second round matchup with Butler.

Not necessarily a big fan of Skip, but I thought that was AWESOME.

sagegrouse
03-18-2009, 12:51 PM
So you tell me, who's ready to dance?

Go Duke.

Great post and to answer your question, I AM SO READY TO DANCE!!!

sagegrouse

bjornolf
03-18-2009, 01:04 PM
the beat, huh? I always thought you were supposed to dance to the words. I'm so tragically white. :o ;)

bjornolf
03-18-2009, 01:39 PM
Did anybody hear Skip Bayless basically call out Roy Williams this morning? Basically called him a liar, saying he was crafty and playing possum over the Ty Lawson toe incident. It was great.

I also heard one of them, I think it was Bayless but I could be wrong, say that even WITH Ty Lawson, he thought they were falling to Gonzaga, and without Ty, he thinks they'll have trouble getting past a second round matchup with Butler.

Not necessarily a big fan of Skip, but I thought that was AWESOME.

Sorry, I was off by a little bit. Skip has them going down to LSU in the second round. Jemelle (can't remember her last name, Hill maybe?), his opponent on 1st and 10, has them going down in the sweet 16 to Gonzaga.

Skip called Roy a "sly old fox" and both he and Jemelle think that ole Roy's trying to pull one over on us. They also commented that it says a lot about Tyler Hansbrough that he's Mr. All-World, yet everyone seems to think that their team's success hinges on Lawson's toe.

Which reminds me of the ACC tourney. During the FSU/UNC game, they had one of those polls up, and it asked who was more important to his team's success, Tyler Hansbrough or Toney Douglas. Hansbrough won like 69% to 31%. I'm sorry, but that's the STUPIDEST thing I've ever heard in my life. What do you guys think?

-Joe

roywhite
03-18-2009, 01:48 PM
I think one of the most interesting parts of this tourney will be watching THE TOE. If THE TOE is healthy and can play in every game, Carolina's going a LONG way. If THE TOE gets all swolled up and has to miss significant time in every game, Carolina doesn't get past the elite 8, maybe even the sweet 16. I think elite 8 is more likely, cause THE TOE will probably play in the first game (sweet 16), then be hindered in the second game (elite 8).

It's all about THE TOE. Kind of appropriate from a team that calls themselves the heels. ;)

Dear Lawson's TOE,

Get well soon, and good luck in the Tournament.


Sincerely,
Duhon's Rib

kakalaki kidd
03-18-2009, 05:51 PM
There was only three teams that did not lose by double digits all year. Memphis, Oklahoma, and UNC.

MarkD83
03-18-2009, 06:43 PM
There was only three teams that did not lose by double digits all year. Memphis, Oklahoma, and UNC.

its double digit loss for the NCAAs.

minday
03-19-2009, 01:46 AM
Duke's Strength of Schedule is ranked #1 in the country; this is evident even when comparing the games that Duke and UNC have played vs. other Tourney teams. Check this:

Duke has played a whopping 17 games vs. 9 tourney teams with an average seeding of 5.89. Their record vs. these teams is 11-6, which encompasses all of their losses, for a winning pct. of .650.

UNC has played only 10 games vs. 7 tourney teams with an average seeding of 5.29. Their record vs. these teams is 6-4, which encompasses all of their losses, for a winning pct. of .600.

Summary: Half of Duke's schedule was played vs. tourney teams, 17. UNC played nearly half that amount yet has a slightly lower winning percentage vs. those teams than does Duke.

So you tell me, who's ready to dance?

Go Duke.

Excellent post! So good, in fact, that I have taken your analysis and shared it with my friends!

And, I have said all year, UNC always selects their schedule to make themselves look good (particularly at the beginning of the season).

kakalaki kidd
03-19-2009, 01:57 AM
Excellent post! So good, in fact, that I have taken your analysis and shared it with my friends!

And, I have said all year, UNC always selects their schedule to make themselves look good (particularly at the beginning of the season).

Funny you say that considering duke basically refuses to play a true road game

hc5duke
03-19-2009, 05:24 AM
Funny you say that considering duke basically refuses to play a true road game

Funny you should say that, considering we played at Purdue (RPI 20), at Michigan (44), and at Xavier (17). Meanwhile, UNC this year played at MSU (6), Notre Dame (77), and Nevada (83). We'll say Santa Barbara (177) and Valpo (260) count as much as St. John's (150) and call it even.

Ok I'm done feeding the troll.

sandinmyshoes
03-19-2009, 10:27 AM
Comparing schedules doesn't seem all that productive if a team has beaten us twice this season. Although it is useful fodder when our guys are accused of having played a soft schedule. I need to take the time to figure out where our schedule would be ranked if we didn't play UNC, since that's the usual comeback by UNC fans. I'm sure it would slip some, but it would still probably be top five or at the very least top ten? Hardly an "easy" schedule in any event.

pfrduke
03-19-2009, 11:51 AM
Comparing schedules doesn't seem all that productive if a team has beaten us twice this season. Although it is useful fodder when our guys are accused of having played a soft schedule. I need to take the time to figure out where our schedule would be ranked if we didn't play UNC, since that's the usual comeback by UNC fans. I'm sure it would slip some, but it would still probably be top five or at the very least top ten? Hardly an "easy" schedule in any event.

Any drop in our SOS would be equal to the drop in their SOS if they didn't play Duke. Most seasons, and definitely this seasons, those games are mutually beneficial for Duke's and UNC's strength of schedule.

blueprofessor
03-19-2009, 12:07 PM
http://www.rotoevil.com/nba/prospects-to-watch-in-the-09-ncaa-tournament

Interesting discussion of each player's game, strengths, and weaknesses.:cool:

Best--Blueprofessor:)

SMO
03-19-2009, 01:29 PM
the beat, huh? I always thought you were supposed to dance to the words. I'm so tragically white. :o ;)

Unless you're a UConn fan, in which case you dance to "Thabeet".

Cue the Go Go's: "We got Thabeet, we got Thabeet, we got Thabeet!"