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Troublemaker
03-15-2009, 04:07 PM
Please put your pre-show speculation and in-show discussion here. Which teams had their bubbles burst today? What does the top four lines of your bracket look like? What seeds are the ACC teams going to get? Which teams do you want to see in Duke's bracket? Etc

Reminder: we will be chatting during selection show: http://www.snrub.com/

hurleyfor3
03-15-2009, 04:11 PM
I wouldn't want to be Maryland right now. (Well, I wouldn't want to be Maryland any time, but you know what I mean.)

How awesome would it be for UConn to be unc's #2? Not putting the cart before the horse or anything, but I'm hoping for Memphis' region, which would almost certainly be the West.

I think it's more realistic to see:

East: UNC/UConn
South: Louisville/Duke
Midwest: Pitt/Mich St (Memphis cannot go here)
West: Memphis/Oklahoma

although you can play with the two seeds

Ignatius07
03-15-2009, 04:17 PM
I think Maryland is as solidly in as any of the bubble teams you've been hearing about recently. The teams that are in *real* trouble (what you might call the uber-bubble) are San Diego State, St. Mary's, Arizona and Creighton. They might be battling for 1 or 2 seeds (perhaps 1 now that Mississippi State got an automatic?).

Troublemaker
03-15-2009, 04:18 PM
Yeah, that MissState win knocked somebody out. Probably Creighton or St. Mary's, though. Still think Maryland sneaks in.

I have UNC as my overall #1 and UConn hanging on to their 1 seed. Memphis gets disrespected on the S-curve, I think. My top two lines would be

East: UNC / Oklahoma
Midwest: Pitt / Memphis
South: Louisville / Mich St
West: UConn / Duke

wolfpackdevil
03-15-2009, 04:22 PM
Please put your pre-show speculation and in-show discussion here. Which teams had their bubbles burst today? What does the top four lines of your bracket look like? What seeds are the ACC teams going to get? Which teams do you want to see in Duke's bracket? Etc

I really hope that Bracketology is incorrect.

I would be really upset if teams like Saint Mary's and Creighton get in the tournament over teams like Arizona and Wisconsin.

hurleyfor3
03-15-2009, 04:23 PM
I'd be very surprised if they gave the Big East three #1s. Thus the other one goes to Memphis. After further review, I do think they would match them up UNC/Oklahoma (strongest 1/weakest 2) and Memphis/UConn (weakest 1/strongest 2). Note UConn historically does very well when placed in the West.

InSpades
03-15-2009, 04:26 PM
I hope we get put in the East with Pitt (not that I want to play Pitt, but Pitt is gonna be in the East). I'm more interested in who the #3 in our region is than the #1. If we get to the elite 8 then I will be thrilled! Hoping to get either Kansas or Missouri as our #3 seed.

Bob Green
03-15-2009, 04:30 PM
I would be really upset if teams like Saint Mary's and Creighton get in the tournament over teams like Arizona and Wisconsin.

Why? I would much rather see St. Mary's in the tournament than Arizona. St. Mary's loss some games with Patty Mills sidelined. He is healthy and St. Mary's deserves to dance.

BlueintheFace
03-15-2009, 04:31 PM
Please give us Louisville or Memphis (Pitt if neccessary) as the #1 seed in our bracket.

FerryFor50
03-15-2009, 04:31 PM
I really hope that Bracketology is incorrect.

I would be really upset if teams like Saint Mary's and Creighton get in the tournament over teams like Arizona and Wisconsin.

Would not surprise me since the fad is now to give more respect to mid-major teams than they probably deserve.

Bluedog
03-15-2009, 04:34 PM
I think it'll be us as the 2 with Louisville or Pitt as our one. I feel confident saying UConn/Memphis will be the 1/2 (in either order) in the West. So, we'll be in the Midwest or East, I'd expect. I'd like to see Lousiville, Memphis, Missouri, Kansas in our bracket as the 1s or 3s. I don't really want to see Pitt as our 1, or Ok as a 3 (although they are 95% assured of a 2). I don't really want to see Nova either or WV. In fact, I think most of the Big East teams are bad matchups for us. Big 12 or Big Ten please. Or SEC.

Lundardi has Ohio St as an 8? I hope they are in UNC's portion. Although I'm not high on the big ten, Ohio St is a tough 8 for them.

ice-9
03-15-2009, 04:39 PM
I think Arizona and Penn State are out. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, and St. Mary's should be among the last in. Creighton should be out and they have no one to blame but themselves with their horrible loss in their conference tourney. Miss. St.'s automatic bid cost Penn State their position.

For the four #1 seeds, UNC, Louisville, and Pitt should be there. I think UConn gets it. No way in heck does Memphis get the fourth 1 seed -- I think it's all media hype when it comes to Memphis. When the selection committee does its analysis, it will be clear that Memphis does not belong in the conversation. I remember Pitt back in 2006 (or thereabouts) who posted an excellent record against a weak schedule; they ended up a 3rd seed when many thought they would be a 1 or 2 seed. I'm betting the same will apply to Memphis.

In fact, I'd say the two biggest threats to UConn's hold on the last 1 seed is Duke and Michigan State. Duke won the ACC tournament and has a #2 RPI; Michigan State has the best record against top 50 teams. What's counting against UConn is the Dyson injury. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

hudlow
03-15-2009, 04:41 PM
Please put your pre-show speculation...

Carolina gets a cakewalk.

hud

brevity
03-15-2009, 04:41 PM
I think it's more realistic to see:

East: UNC/UConn

This won't happen, unless the Committee ignores the S-curve in favor of keeping both teams in Boston. UNC is either the #1 or 2 overall seed, and Connecticut is either #4 or 5.

The top 8 teams could look like this.

Midwest: Louisville, Michigan St.
East: UNC, Oklahoma
South: Pitt, Duke
West: Memphis, UConn

I'm not in love with Oklahoma or Michigan State as 2 seeds, but who would replace them?

Delaware
03-15-2009, 04:46 PM
This won't happen, unless the Committee ignores the S-curve in favor of keeping both teams in Boston. UNC is either the #1 or 2 overall seed, and Connecticut is either #4 or 5.

The top 8 teams could look like this.

Midwest: Louisville, Michigan St.
East: UNC, Oklahoma
South: Pitt, Duke
West: Memphis, UConn

I'm not in love with Oklahoma or Michigan State as 2 seeds, but who would replace them?


I agree and think these are the pairs we will see.

oso diablo
03-15-2009, 04:51 PM
i think we've played our way into the #1 seed with UConn as our #2, or vice versa. I don't see how you slot Memphis over either of those teams.

Wander
03-15-2009, 04:53 PM
I don't know why everyone is taking Duke as a 2 seed for granted. I'm not saying we'll get a 1, but our resume is comparable with Memphis or UConn:

> Duke has a higher RPI than either Memphis or UConn
> Duke has a higher SOS than either Memphis or UConn
> Duke beat two of the three teams that beat Memphis
> Duke won their conference tournament, UConn did not
> Duke has more wins than either UConn or Memphis against tournament teams

Of course, there are good arguments for Memphis and UConn as well. I'd say it's more likely that we get a 2 seed than a 1 seed, but certainly not 100%.

Troublemaker
03-15-2009, 04:55 PM
Carolina gets a cakewalk.

hud

Assuming they get an at-large bid. :) Muahahahahahahaha.

CDu
03-15-2009, 04:56 PM
I don't particularly care who our #1 seed is, because that's so far down the road that it might just be irrelevant (one way or the other). I'm more concerned about who our #7 seed and who our #3/6 seeds would be, because those are the games that we'll be sweating. And if we get to the Elite-8, that's a fantastic accomplishment. We will have played to the #1/#2 seed's expectation. That's all you can ask.

houstondukie
03-15-2009, 04:59 PM
Any seeding prediction without factoring in the pod system/distance is meaningless.

Here's my prediction, taking into account distance from home:

BOSTON: Uconn / Duke / Missouri
INDIANAPOLIS: Pitt / Michigan state / Wake Forest
MEMPHIS: Unc / Oklahoma / Villanova
ARIZONA: Louisville / Memphis / Kansas

gumbomoop
03-15-2009, 05:03 PM
This won't happen, unless the Committee ignores the S-curve in favor of keeping both teams in Boston. UNC is either the #1 or 2 overall seed, and Connecticut is either #4 or 5.

The top 8 teams could look like this.

Midwest: Louisville, Michigan St.
East: UNC, Oklahoma
South: Pitt, Duke
West: Memphis, UConn

I'm not in love with Oklahoma or Michigan State as 2 seeds, but who would replace them?

This looks about right to me. I prefer the poison that is UL to the poison that is Pitt, chiefly because of Blair, and because UL can be pretty inconsistent offensively.

I have heard, but don't believe, the ESPN [somewhere in last 24 hours] speculation that UConn would be 2 to UNC's 1 in East, in order to sell tickets to a near-certain Elite 8 matchup.

I hope you're right that there's no logical replacement for Okla as a 2 [maybe Kansas?], but their stock is falling. If Okla falls to 3, I'd strongly guess they'll be in our bracket for a potential "family" tussle in Sweet 16. Bad vibes there: Capel, not to mention Griffin, NPOY, plus a very good Willie Warren and solid pt, Austin Johnson.

So, Selection Committee, listen to brevity and keep Okla as a 2 and in UNC's region. You got no better choices. Thanks.

Troublemaker
03-15-2009, 05:09 PM
I don't particularly care who our #1 seed is, because that's so far down the road that it might just be irrelevant (one way or the other). I'm more concerned about who our #7 seed and who our #3/6 seeds would be, because those are the games that we'll be sweating. And if we get to the Elite-8, that's a fantastic accomplishment. We will have played to the #1/#2 seed's expectation. That's all you can ask.

I tend to agree. Don't forget the 10 seeds too; oftentimes, they're a greater threat than the 7 seeds. I cringed yesterday when USC won the Pac-10 and got themselves into the tournament. That's an extremely athletic team that will be a pain as a 9/10/11 seed. I wouldn't want to see them as a 10 across from Duke's 2.

Others in the 6 to 11 range that I wouldn't want to face: WVU, LSU, Marquette. And probably some others.

dukeballer2294
03-15-2009, 05:25 PM
This won't happen, unless the Committee ignores the S-curve in favor of keeping both teams in Boston. UNC is either the #1 or 2 overall seed, and Connecticut is either #4 or 5.

The top 8 teams could look like this.

Midwest: Louisville, Michigan St.
East: UNC, Oklahoma
South: Pitt, Duke
West: Memphis, UConn

I'm not in love with Oklahoma or Michigan State as 2 seeds, but who would replace them?

I agree with UNC being the 1, Louisville the 2, Pitt the 3, and Memphis the 4
the only team i can see that has a slim chance of getting it is Kansas but thats highly unlikely

KShip21
03-15-2009, 05:32 PM
the Atlanta journal constitution has us as the 2 seed in the east with Pitt the 1. Our first round against Portland state with a second round game against butler or Utah state. Potential sweet 16 matchup with tenn, minn, mizzu, or Morgan state. I would really like that draw!!!!!

Sir Stealth
03-15-2009, 05:34 PM
I'm not saying we'd be snubbed with a 2, but it does seem annoying to hear Duke given no shot at a 1 considering we are 2 in the RPI and have THREE more wins against tourney teams than any other team, not to mention no losses to teams that will be outside of the tourney. And that whole ACC Championship thing. I'd hope the committee would do it's best to look only at actual results and numbers without the names there to compare.

Other than that, I agree that the 7/10/3/6 are probably more important. My first reaction was that I'd want UNC and UCONN paired together, but then I realized that increases the likelihood that one or the other would end up the Final Four, and nobody wants to see that. Having to root for UCONN in the Elite 8 would be nauseating. Keep those two apart to lose on their own.

houstondukie
03-15-2009, 05:40 PM
I'm not saying we'd be snubbed with a 2, but it does seem annoying to hear Duke given no shot at a 1 considering we are 2 in the RPI and have THREE more wins against tourney teams than any other team, not to mention no losses to teams that will be outside of the tourney. And that whole ACC Championship thing. I'd hope the committee would do it's best to look only at actual results and numbers without the names there to compare.

Other than that, I agree that the 7/10/3/6 are probably more important. My first reaction was that I'd want UNC and UCONN paired together, but then I realized that increases the likelihood that one or the other would end up the Final Four, and nobody wants to see that. Having to root for UCONN in the Elite 8 would be nauseating. Keep those two apart to lose on their own.

The field hasn't even been released yet, so how can we even know this?

Plus I think it matters more which of those tournament teams you have beaten - all the #16 seeds or all the #1 seeds?

ACCBBallFan
03-15-2009, 05:44 PM
My NCAA tournament surprise pick is Miami-Fl getting in thanks to two wins over BC and a win over Wake, but I do not thtnk it will happen.

Mine Conf Actual Seed Team


1 ACC UNC 18372
1 BE Louisville 17324
1 BE Pitt 18254
1 BE UCONN 17959

2 ACC Duke 17293
2 CUSA Memphis 17263
2 B12 Oklahoma 17042
2 B10 Mich St 16996

3 ACC Wake 16291
3 BE Nova 15892
3 B12 Kansas 15678
3 B12 Mizzou 15591

4 WCC Zaga 15095
4 P10 Wash 15018
4 ACC Clemson 14771
4 P10 UCLA 14660

5 BE Syr 14388
5 A10 Xav 14286
5 BE Marq 14029
5 B10 Illini 14008

6 P10 AZ St 13855
6 B10 Purdue 13852
6 HOR Butler 13635
6 ACC FSU 13571

7 BE W VA 13501
7 MWC BYU 13188
7 B12 Texas 12575
7 P10 Calif 12367

8 MWC Utah 12676
8 SEC LSU 12859
8 B10 MN 11996
8 B10 Ohio St 12109

9 SEC TN 11839
9 B10 Wisc 11605
9 B12 Okl St 11615
9 WAC Utah St 11588

10 A10 Dayton 11558
10 B12 Tx A&M 11530
10 MWC San Diego St 11133
10 MAAC Siena 11119

11 ACC Miami-FL 10664
11 ACC BC 10627
11 P10 USC 10594
11 ACC Maryland 10411

12 A10 Temple 10264
12 CAA VCU 9448
12 HOR Clev St 9312
12 MVC N Iowa 8621

13 SEC MS St 8720
13 SB W Ky 8612
13 Southland SF Austin 7994
13 Summit N Dak St 8298

14 Patr American 7744
14 MAC Akron 6941
14 Ivy Cornell 6624
14 BigSky Portl St 6572

15 AtlSun E TN St 6347
15 AmEast Binhamton 6095
15 NE Robt Morris 6095
15 MEAC Morgan St 5143

16 BW CS Northridge 4284
16 BS Radford 3913
16 Southern Chattanooga 3500

17 OVC Morehead St 3475
17 SWAC Alab St 3041

18 SEC Florida 10910
18 MVC Creighton 10705
18 B10 Michigan 10667
18 BE G-town 10555

19 WCC St Mary's 10518
19 MWC UNLV 10459
19 P10 Arizona 10577
19 Southern Davidson 10396

20 SEC So Carol 10190
20 SEC UK 10328
20 B10 Penn St 9992
20 MWC 9702

ACCBBallFan
03-15-2009, 05:53 PM
With their head to head win over Michigan, Maryland may get that final at large bid.

My NCAA tournament surprise pick is Miami-Fl getting in thanks to two wins over BC and a win over Wake, but I do not thtnk it will happen.

So Michigan may get back in and Miami will likely be out losing 6 of last 10 and being 7-10 in ACC play.

Mine Conf Actual Seed Team


1 ACC UNC 18372
1 BE Louisv 17324
1 BE Pitt 18254
1 BE UCONN 17959

2 ACC Duke 17293
2 CUSA Memphis 17263
2 B12 Oklahom 17042
2 B10 Mich St 16996

3 ACC Wake 16291
3 BE Nova 15892
3 B12 Kansas 15678
3 B12 Mizzou 15591

4 WCC Zaga 15095
4 P10 Wash 15018
4 ACC Clemson 14771
4 P10 UCLA 14660

5 BE Syr 14388
5 A10 Xav 14286
5 BE Marq 14029
5 B10 Illini 14008

6 P10 AZ St 13855
6 B10 Purdue 13852
6 HOR Butler 13635
6 ACC FSU 13571

7 BE W VA 13501
7 MWC BYU 13188
7 B12 Texas 12575
7 P10 Calif 12367

8 MWC Utah 12676
8 SEC LSU 12859
8 B10 MN 11996
8 B10 Ohio St 12109

9 SEC TN 11839
9 B10 Wisc 11605
9 B12 Okl St 11615
9 WAC Utah St 11588

10 A10 Dayton 11558
10 B12 Tx A&M 11530
10 MWC SanDiegoSt 11133
10 MAAC Siena 11119

11 ACC Miami-FL 10664
11 ACC BC 10627
11 P10 USC 10594
11 ACC Marylan 10411

12 A10 Temple 10264
12 CAA VCU 9448
12 HOR Clev St 9312
12 MVC N Iowa 8621

13 SEC MS St 8720
13 SB W Ky 8612
13 Southland SF Aust 7994
13 Summit N DakSt 8298

14 Patr Americ 7744
14 MAC Akron 6941
14 Ivy Cornell 6624
14 BigSky PortlSt 6572

15 AtlSun E TN St 6347
15 AmEast Binhamt 6095
15 NE RobtMorris 6095
15 MEAC Morgan St 5143

16 BW CS Northridge 4284
16 BS Radford 3913
16 Southern Chattanooga 3500

17 OVC Morehead St 3475
17 SWAC Alab St 3041

18 SEC Florida 10910
18 MVC Creight 10705
18 B10 Michiga 10667
18 BE G-town 10555

19 WCC St Mary 10518
19 MWC UNLV 10459
19 P10 Arizona 10577
19 Southern Davidso 10396

20 SEC So Car 10190
20 SEC UK 10328
20 B10 Penn St 9992
20 MWC New MX 9702

Troublemaker
03-15-2009, 05:56 PM
Just a reminder. We will be chatting during the selection show: http://www.snrub.com/

DukeCO2009
03-15-2009, 06:21 PM
Looks like we've got Pitt. No way they put us in the same region as chapel hill.

RainingThrees
03-15-2009, 06:38 PM
7 from the ACC wow. Didn't really expect Miami though.

throatybeard
03-15-2009, 06:54 PM
Would not surprise me since the fad is now to give more respect to mid-major teams than they probably deserve.

This isn't really accurate. CBS showed a graphic of how many at-larges came from the other 25 conferences, and it's been steadily declining since 2002 or so, to just four this year from double digits several years ago.

geraldsneighbor
03-15-2009, 06:58 PM
It'll be a tough road but at least we know in the past that we gave Pitt a tough game. Texas in second round isn't too bad of a match-up.

flyingdutchdevil
03-15-2009, 07:06 PM
I never say this (I always say the opposite), but I think we have the easiest bracket to get to the Elite 8. I see us playing Minnesota in the 2nd round and Nova in the Sweet 16.

Pitt is going to be hard, but I like our chances. I actually think UNC has a really hard bracket. I wouldn't want to be them.

mgtr
03-15-2009, 07:08 PM
I am not at all surprised about the picks or the seeds. I have been a Rick Pitino fan for a long time (except in NBA, except when playing Duke). I don't know how well we would do against Pitt, but that is a ways away -- there is many a slip twixt the cup and the lip. Of course, we could end up facing VCU again (shudder!).

Greg_Newton
03-15-2009, 07:09 PM
Despite all the talk about us matching up terribly against Pitt, I actually don't think it would be that bad. We're a lot tougher and quicker than last year. EW/Nolan/Scheyer vs Fields, G vs Young, Singler vs Blair, it would be a great game that could swing either way depending on who gets hot. Here's hoping we get to see it down the road.

I really don't like Arizona getting in over St. Mary's. They've been an underachieving team all year that hasn't really played like they deserve a bid, while St. Mary's is, in my opinion, the opposite. Otherwise I think the committee was pretty fair. I'm glad Michigan got in as a ten.

Although... while it's definitely nice for the ACC to get the same number of teams in as the Big East, I thought the committee may have overrated the Big East a little bit in its seedings (in relation to the ACC). I'm not so sure that they deserve three teams seeded above Duke, five teams seeded above Wake, seven teams seeded above Clemson, etc. I would have liked to see Wake as a three, FSU as a four, and Clemson as a six.

But, the great thing about the tournament is that we'll find out who really deserved what during the next few weeks. Everybody clear your schedules!

SMO
03-15-2009, 07:11 PM
Vitale just pulled a "I know you went to Duke" on Jay Bilas on ESPN and Bilas completely called him on it, accusing Vitale of "playing the Duke card". It was beautiful. Digger even backed him up. Vitale is making emotional arguments for teams that were left out.

RainingThrees
03-15-2009, 07:20 PM
What about VT vs Miami. Should VT have gotten in instead of Miami.

MChambers
03-15-2009, 07:57 PM
I actually think UNC has a really hard bracket. I wouldn't want to be them.
I never want to be UNC, for many, many reasons!