MBB: East Regional Discussion (Duke's region)

[Troublemaker]

Discuss the East Region here. What upsets do you see? What interesting matchups? Who will go to the Final Four?

[Troublemaker]

East Region, unlocked and loaded.

Do you guys like Duke's draw???

[DukeCO2009]

I love this draw. Seth Davis just said we're an easy matchup for Pitt, but I think we can beat them. Further, I think FSU could give them all kinds of trouble. Villanova scares me a bit.

[Rogue]

I like the draw.. G'boro should be a nice early start.. Pitt/ Villinova,, and gawd, wouldn't it be nice for VCU to get through a few rounds and then have the rematch with Maynor.

Devils make final 4 :cool:

[RainingThrees]

I'm scared of Blair already. That guy is a freakin monstor.

[studdlee10]

I TOTALLY agree. I think this is not that bad for Duke. I don't like Nova in our bracket but they are not going to kill us on the inside. Guards we have. We can throw Nolan and Elliot at Reynolds and last I checked, those two did a pretty decent job against Rice, Douglas, and Vasquez the past 3 days.

Pitt is the number 1 seed we match up with best. Yes, Blair is a beast but he's small. Zoubek, Plumlee, etc can give him some trouble just by raising their hands up. Fields is experienced but he is not on the same level as Lawson, Rice, Douglas in terms of speed and outside shooting ability. Elliot and Nolan can stay in front of him. They have young, which is honestly a matchup problem for us. He's likely too fast for Kyle and too tall for Gerald. BUt on the flip side...he cant' guard both Kyle and Gerald.

I like it.

[MarkD83]

I like our chances against Binghamton, but not sure what to expect about Tx/Minn winner.

We just won a three game in three day tournament, so lets stay focussed on the first two game in three day tournament.

[dukegirlinsc]

Totally biased, but of course I'm voting for Duke. Duke's beaten Florida State 3 times this year, and also beaten Xavier. I'm happy with this draw.

[superdave]

Nobody will pick Duke. Little inside scoring, disappointments last two tourneys.

This has to be a motivating factor for Duke. They need to play with a chip on their shoulders.

I have not seen Villanova this year but know they score a lot of points. Pitt is beatable. Their big boy cannot score 50 and susceptable to foul trouble trying to guard Singler.

[godukerocks]

What time do we play Thursday?

[natkap]

I love this draw. Seth Davis just said we're an easy matchup for Pitt, but I think we can beat them. Further, I think FSU could give them all kinds of trouble. Villanova scares me a bit.

I'd really love to prove Seth wrong too! I think we can beat Nova.

[Ben63]

I love this Duke team team but I picked Pitt to win it all and I'm sticking by it. I think Pitt will make the Final Four. But of course I'll still be pulling for the Blue Devils.

[indakut]

I like this set up too. Let's hope FSU will pull off the upset AND Jeff Capels' Oklahoma Sooners can upset the tarheels, in the potential match up.

[NYC Duke Fan]

Do not discount Texas. Rick Barnes is familiar with the ACC and if I am not mistaken wasn't Texas very highly rated sometime this year. Do they have any injuries ?

[FerryFor50]

I don't like that first round matchup. Binghamton will be a tougher game than expected - kind of like last year's game with Belmont.

[SMO]

I don't like that first round matchup. Binghamton will be a tougher game than expected - kind of like last year's game with Belmont.

Now you're killing me:D An unfavorable 1st round matchup as a 2 seed???

[quickgtp]

We CANNOT look past the first weekend, especially with Texas. That would be a very tough game for Duke.

[BlueintheFace]

THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT: Outside of Texas, our side of the bracket is very guard heavy. Villanova, VCU, and UCLA are very dependent on guards and potentially good matchups for us. Minnesota would be too. TX is the team to look out for. I have seen them live a number of times and Dexter Pittman has the ability to take over for spurts.

Overall, it could be much worse.

[weezie]

I'm scared of Blair already. That guy is a freakin monstor.


Yeah well, the panther team gathering didn't look all that happy with their draw.
Hah!

[FerryFor50]

Now you're killing me:D An unfavorable 1st round matchup as a 2 seed???

I didn't say it was unfavorable - I just think Binghamton is the strongest 15 seed, and we've had recent history with 15 seeds giving us headaches. :D

[blueprofessor]

...FSU improved and its young players (Alabi, Singleton, and Kitchen) gained confidence.
FSU can beat Pitt.:D
Can we beat 'Nova?

Best--Blueprof:)

[Lulu]

wait, so do we have to play nova in philly if both advance?

[pfrduke]

wait, so do we have to play nova in philly if both advance?

No, we'd play them in Boston (if both advance)

[Lulu]

phew, a friend scared me

[Papa John]

I love this draw. Seth Davis just said we're an easy matchup for Pitt, but I think we can beat them. Further, I think FSU could give them all kinds of trouble. Villanova scares me a bit.

Seth is [a jerk]... His logic [lack thereof, actually] makes absolutely no sense whatsoever... FSU is going to give Pitt a tough matchup, but if they make it to Duke they have a virtual walkover to the Final Four? Um, Seth... Did you happen to watch us handily dispatch FSU this afternoon? [for the THIRD TIME THIS SEASON!]

His other brilliant nuggets were Clemson and VCU as his surprise teams... Clemson is in freefall right now--they have negative momentum... And VCU will not be sneaking up on anybody this year...

I do agree with him on one point--FSU will indeed be a tough matchup for Pitt... Aside from that, I like our draw and think it sets up nicely for a return to the Final Four...

[dukestheheat]

I think we can beat Pitt if it comes down to that. I'm not weauxfing at all, I'm just saying that we can play with them and win that game. It'd be a great game; Duke is playing WELL right now!

Getting Nolan back and having Williams in with Scheyer has really helped Duke tremendously, especially on the defensive end.

Here's to focusing only on the first game, Thursday, versus Binghamton!

Let's go DUKE!

dukestheheat.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'm calling Minnesota beating Texas.

I love our bracket (this is the first time that I have ever said that). Of all the 2 seeds, we definitely have the easiest route. Should be an awesome first weekend!

[superdave]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=273540150

We had 19 TOs, got outrebounded by 18, Paulus played 34 minutes. We are far, far better and more mature, but Pitt is better too.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=283552752

Here's Duke-Xavier from December. We have not played Texas in a while I dont think, or Nova.

[dukestheheat]

^^^

what are some points of emphasis for Minnesota? I don't know too much about them.

thanks,

dth.

[dukie8]

I'm calling Minnesota beating Texas.

I love our bracket (this is the first time that I have ever said that). Of all the 2 seeds, we definitely have the easiest route. Should be an awesome first weekend!

memphis has a much easier route -- over-seeded maryland, marquette, texas a&m and uconn all in their region.

the east is a fair bracket. landmines exist but not as many as the midwest.

[mgtr]

I love our bracket (this is the first time that I have ever said that). Of all the 2 seeds, we definitely have the easiest route. Should be an awesome first weekend!

I am on board with that. We are playing the best we have in the last 3 years. Go Duke!

[RainingThrees]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=273540150

We had 19 TOs, got outrebounded by 18, Paulus played 34 minutes. We are far, far better and more mature, but Pitt is better too.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=283552752

Here's Duke-Xavier from December. We have not played Texas in a while I dont think, or Nova.

The last time we played Texas I believe JJ got 41. That was a great game!!

[OldSchool]

Hmmm, I don't know about Minnesota over Texas.

Texas is one of those teams that really concerns me come tournament time. They have a lot of talent, and were ranked between #5 and #9 for about the first half of the season. But they underachieved once they hit conference play. So now it's a fresh start for them.


If we both advance, we would only have a couple of days to prepare for them. If AJ Abrams decides to go off, he can light up anyone. They are experienced and they are big up front.

They remind me of FSU to some extent, with one really outstanding guard and a big front line. We are going to have to have a solid shooting game to beat them.

[gwwilburn]

...FSU improved and its young players (Alabi, Singleton, and Kitchen) gained confidence.
FSU can beat Pitt.:D
Can we beat 'Nova?

Best--Blueprof:)
FSU almost beat Pitt in November or December. Nova scares me a little, but they lost to Georgetown on February 28th (whom we, along with most everybody, creamed) just were beaten by 10 at the hands of Louisville in the Big East semi's, Texas, and West Virginia. Not pretty losses at all. They also only beat St. John's by 4, and needed overtime to beat lowly Seton Hall. (Early in the season). On a high note, they beat Pitt.

[A-Tex Devil]

Assuming chalk and Duke plays UT (ugh), it should be an interesting game. If we play decent and AJ Abrams doesn't wake up and drop 30 on us, we should beat the Horns, though.

I've watched UT in person several times this year, and they are very much like Duke 2 years ago - good defensively, sometimes inept offensively, and the whole is definitely less than the sum of their parts. Burntorangenation.com has an apt description: "a nice assembly of quality items, but it's not at all clear how best to make them go together -- a bit like having a bowl of miso soup, a glass of desert wine, and plate of brisket."

Brief summary on some of the players.

Pittman -- Dexter Pittman has really turned it on in the last month. He is very similar to DeJuan Blair and is even a couple inches taller. He doesn't quite have Blair's motor, but if he plays like he did the first 2 games of the Big XII tourney, he'll give us problems.

AJ Abrams -- simply put, he has JJ range, and if he is hot, he has JJ accuracy and can score with a man on him, hand in his face, from 35 feet out. He has not been that hot lately, though, and tends to try to insert himself into games when Texas doesn't really need him to (see end of Kansas game last weekend).

Damian James - very very talented and a gifted rebounder, and also a very very low basketball IQ. If he plays instinctually and his shot is on (see first half of KU last week) he is dangerous and, frankly, we don't have anyone that can stop him. Easily frustrated, though, and disappears a lot

Conor Atchley used to be a good player but has been a no show his senior year. He's still a decent interior defender that we'll have to account for.

Gary Johnson and Justin Mason are nice players but aren't likely going to turn the tide one way or the other.

Doge Balbay is Turkish for "Doug Gottleib." He is a great penetrator and distributor and a really good defender, but you can literally sink back to the free throw line to guard him because he can't and won't shoot.

Texas has played to the level of their competition all year long. They've beaten UCLA, Villanova, Wisconsin, OU (without Griffin), killed KU for a half. They've also been blown out by A&M, MIssouri, Oklahmoa St. and just lost to Baylor. If we play well, and can contain AJ Abrams and James, and wear out Dexter Pittman, we should win. Barnes will throw lots of zones at us, and they are a very good defensive team, but we've seen and beaten better in the ACC.

[texas]

Do not discount Texas. Rick Barnes is familiar with the ACC and if I am not mistaken wasn't Texas very highly rated sometime this year. Do they have any injuries ?


hey guys, been awhile since i've been on here. everyone on our message board is talking about the possible matchup with duke. but of course there is this little matter of us getting by MN first. our team has been so up/down this year. we basically have played to our competition.

as for injuries, we are mostly healthy. gary johnson tweaked an ankle recently but i think he should be good to go.

looking forward to talking more about the matchup if we get by MN. and yes, we were ranked as high as #5 VERY early on in the season i believe. we have great potential but have had terrible guard play this year. i'll write more later.

[studdlee10]

memphis has a much easier route -- over-seeded maryland, marquette, texas a&m and uconn all in their region.

the east is a fair bracket. landmines exist but not as many as the midwest.

Don't sleep on Maryland. I hate MD as much as the next Duke fan, but any number 10 seed that can beat a number 1 seed (UNC) a number 2 seed (michigan state), a number 4 seed (Wake), and give us (a 2 seed) a lot of trouble is not over seeded. In fact, that's a pretty dangerous #10 seed especially when you consider they have personnel very similar to Memphis, which by the way has beaten two good teams, Tennessee a 9 seed (by 2 pts), and Gonzaga, an overrated 4 seed. The other good teams Memphis has played and lost to? G'town (NIT), Xavier, and Syracuse. If you looked at that alone, hard to argue that Memphis is head and shoulders above Maryland.

I think Maryland beats Memphis. They'll throw 2 experienced guards out there for Evans to guard. Evans hasn't had to play defense in months...like to see how he suddenly handles having a talented player opposite him.

[mapei]

I just hope we can get out of Greensboro. I am SO tired of our early exits the last few years. If we're lucky enough to advance to a regional final against Pitt, the game will depend on how it is called. If it is called tight, we can get Blair in foul trouble and the advantage shifts to Duke. If it is called loose, we may not get a single rebound.

Also, don't discount Fields. He is really good. Not Lawson- or Flynn-good, but an excellent, smart PG who doesn't turn the ball over and makes great passes and decisions.

[Indoor66]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=273540150

We had 19 TOs, got outrebounded by 18, Paulus played 34 minutes. We are far, far better and more mature, but Pitt is better too.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=283552752

Here's Duke-Xavier from December. We have not played Texas in a while I dont think, or Nova.

We stomped Villanova in 1978 at the East Regional in Providence! :D
We got Texas a couple years ago when JJ hit for 41 in the Garden.

[BlueintheFace]

Assuming chalk and Duke plays UT (ugh), it should be an interesting game. If we play decent and AJ Abrams doesn't wake up and drop 30 on us, we should beat the Horns, though.

I've watched UT in person several times this year, and they are very much like Duke 2 years ago - good defensively, sometimes inept offensively, and the whole is definitely less than the sum of their parts. Burntorangenation.com has an apt description: "a nice assembly of quality items, but it's not at all clear how best to make them go together -- a bit like having a bowl of miso soup, a glass of desert wine, and plate of brisket."

Brief summary on some of the players.

Pittman -- Dexter Pittman has really turned it on in the last month. He is very similar to DeJuan Blair and is even a couple inches taller. He doesn't quite have Blair's motor, but if he plays like he did the first 2 games of the Big XII tourney, he'll give us problems.

AJ Abrams -- simply put, he has JJ range, and if he is hot, he has JJ accuracy and can score with a man on him, hand in his face, from 35 feet out. He has not been that hot lately, though, and tends to try to insert himself into games when Texas doesn't really need him to (see end of Kansas game last weekend).

Damian James - very very talented and a gifted rebounder, and also a very very low basketball IQ. If he plays instinctually and his shot is on (see first half of KU last week) he is dangerous and, frankly, we don't have anyone that can stop him. Easily frustrated, though, and disappears a lot

Conor Atchley used to be a good player but has been a no show his senior year. He's still a decent interior defender that we'll have to account for.

Gary Johnson and Justin Mason are nice players but aren't likely going to turn the tide one way or the other.

Doge Balbay is Turkish for "Doug Gottleib." He is a great penetrator and distributor and a really good defender, but you can literally sink back to the free throw line to guard him because he can't and won't shoot.

Texas has played to the level of their competition all year long. They've beaten UCLA, Villanova, Wisconsin, OU (without Griffin), killed KU for a half. They've also been blown out by A&M, MIssouri, Oklahmoa St. and just lost to Baylor. If we play well, and can contain AJ Abrams and James, and wear out Dexter Pittman, we should win. Barnes will throw lots of zones at us, and they are a very good defensive team, but we've seen and beaten better in the ACC.

As a fellow Dukie in Austin who has also seen them live multiple times, I too did not like to see UT on our plate.

I think to win against them, you have to front Pittman like crazy and give Abrams the Tyrese Rice treatment. UT wins games against better teams ONLY when Abrams keys big runs for them.

[dukie8]

Assuming chalk and Duke plays UT (ugh), it should be an interesting game. If we play decent and AJ Abrams doesn't wake up and drop 30 on us, we should beat the Horns, though.

I've watched UT in person several times this year, and they are very much like Duke 2 years ago - good defensively, sometimes inept offensively, and the whole is definitely less than the sum of their parts. Burntorangenation.com has an apt description: "a nice assembly of quality items, but it's not at all clear how best to make them go together -- a bit like having a bowl of miso soup, a glass of desert wine, and plate of brisket."

Brief summary on some of the players.

Pittman -- Dexter Pittman has really turned it on in the last month. He is very similar to DeJuan Blair and is even a couple inches taller. He doesn't quite have Blair's motor, but if he plays like he did the first 2 games of the Big XII tourney, he'll give us problems.

AJ Abrams -- simply put, he has JJ range, and if he is hot, he has JJ accuracy and can score with a man on him, hand in his face, from 35 feet out. He has not been that hot lately, though, and tends to try to insert himself into games when Texas doesn't really need him to (see end of Kansas game last weekend).

Damian James - very very talented and a gifted rebounder, and also a very very low basketball IQ. If he plays instinctually and his shot is on (see first half of KU last week) he is dangerous and, frankly, we don't have anyone that can stop him. Easily frustrated, though, and disappears a lot

Conor Atchley used to be a good player but has been a no show his senior year. He's still a decent interior defender that we'll have to account for.

Gary Johnson and Justin Mason are nice players but aren't likely going to turn the tide one way or the other.

Doge Balbay is Turkish for "Doug Gottleib." He is a great penetrator and distributor and a really good defender, but you can literally sink back to the free throw line to guard him because he can't and won't shoot.

Texas has played to the level of their competition all year long. They've beaten UCLA, Villanova, Wisconsin, OU (without Griffin), killed KU for a half. They've also been blown out by A&M, MIssouri, Oklahmoa St. and just lost to Baylor. If we play well, and can contain AJ Abrams and James, and wear out Dexter Pittman, we should win. Barnes will throw lots of zones at us, and they are a very good defensive team, but we've seen and beaten better in the ACC.

i've watched texas play numerous times this year and this is a very good summary. i do think that barnes is one of the worst coaches in the country, which helps when you are playing his team in the ncaat. it will be very interesting to see what we do with pittman. i think he was 380 when he showed up to campus. he is lighter now but he cannot run up and down the court for 40 minutes. i think the key is to contain abrams and not let pittman overpower thomas/zoubek/mcclure. i actually like this match-up a lot.

[geraldsneighbor]

Nova is very guard laden. Cunningham isn't nearly the player Singler is and Henderson and Scheyer are better than Reynolds and Fisher. If Duke shoots the ball like they did today a final four isn't very farfetched.

[geraldsneighbor]

Obviously the 7/10 game is never a walk in the park. I was just glad we weren't going to have to play Marquette. We have played a few tight games with them the last couple years. I think Duke should be able to beat Texas but it won't be easy. This Duke team is better than anyone in recent memory and they have the swagger.

[JBDuke]

What time do we play Thursday?

CBS will look at the games and determine broadcast times. I believe they'll announce them tomorrow.

It'll be a little more interesting to see how the schedule works this year. Normally, Duke is such a ratings draw that we get an evening time slot, even with a lower seed. This year, with Carolina also playing at G'boro and also having a national following, I don't know what CBS will do. If I was a betting man, I'd guess we'll go at 7 p.m., but we could easily get moved into the afternoon...

[dukemsu]

Texas has the pieces to be a very tough matchup due to their size at all positions. For that reason, I actually fear them more than I do Villanova.

Pittman is a beast and he has improved every game. Tough draw for Duke, but they way we've been playing, Duke's scaring the teams in this bracket as well. We present a lot of matchup problems and we have G as a trump card.

dukemsu

[geraldsneighbor]

CBS will look at the games and determine broadcast times. I believe they'll announce them tomorrow.

It'll be a little more interesting to see how the schedule works this year. Normally, Duke is such a ratings draw that we get an evening time slot, even with a lower seed. This year, with Carolina also playing at G'boro and also having a national following, I don't know what CBS will do. If I was a betting man, I'd guess we'll go at 7 p.m., but we could easily get moved into the afternoon...

I agree, and normally the 1/16 match-ups aren't very interesting. They will want to have Duke play at 7 since the whole Belmont thing last year.

[Greg_Newton]

Remember when Binghamton was 1 point away from beating UNC back in '01? When UNC was 2-4? Ahhh those were happy days.

Someone made a good point on ESPN about how Villanova is a spread the floor, set ball screens and penetrate type of team. It's true that this could give Duke trouble (if they meet), because although Nolan and Elliot are elite on-ball defenders, that won't matter if they are switched off and Kyle or Lance is isolated against a quick guard in a spread set. Still, I trust K to figure that out if we get there, seeing as his various moves and schemes have been extremely effective this year.

We've got depth, quickness, shooting, stifling defense, athleticism, experience, toughness, great attitudes and chemistry - not to mention we're hot. It has been noted that the Duke teams of the last couple of years have consistently needed heroic efforts from their players to beat great teams. Our current squad, on the other hand, is good enough to beat top-tier competition on solid execution and individual performances alone... i.e. we only need our guys to play to their potential in order to be a great team, rather than blowing it out of the water. That's huge when it comes to survive-and-advance season.

And lastly, if this team plays its absolute best, I believe they are capable of running anybody out of the building on any given night. I think it's very possible that they really start to click and reach a whole new level during the tournament... the last 3 days have been very encouraging. Fingers X'd we get to witness something special.

[ikiru36]

Texas has beaten 2 other teams in the bracket which are seeded ahead of them: UCLA, Villanova, as well as Oklahoma.

Heck, Minnesota handed #1 seed Louisville one of it's 5 losses.

Then a likely matchup with either Villanova or UCLA in the 3rd round. Ouch.

It's not an easy bracket, that's fer sure, but we're no easy match-up either. If we play the way we're capable of the only things that especially worries me are quick scoring PGs (though hopefully Elliot's emergence improves that issue) paired with powerful low post players. And should we get to Pitt, at least it's a team we know, and our style has changed more than theirs has since we played them last year.

Go Duke!!!!!!!!!! Go Blue Devils!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BlueintheFace]

The more I think about it, the more I hate the thought of Nova being in our bracket.

[House G]

i've watched texas play numerous times this year and this is a very good summary. i do think that barnes is one of the worst coaches in the country, which helps when you are playing his team in the ncaat. it will be very interesting to see what we do with pittman. i think he was 380 when he showed up to campus. he is lighter now but he cannot run up and down the court for 40 minutes. i think the key is to contain abrams and not let pittman overpower thomas/zoubek/mcclure. i actually like this match-up a lot.
I have the same opinion of Rick Barnes. In fact, every time I think of him I am reminded of the famous Bobby Knight quote from the 1987 Regional final versus LSU (Indiana was down 9 with 5 minutes to go and won 77-76): "I was worried about losing until I looked down the floor and saw Dale Brown. Then I knew we had a chance." :D

[delfrio]

According to a couple of guys on ESPN, I think Bilas and Brown, the East is the toughest bracket. Their conclusion was that Pitt is the most well-rounded team in the tourney, and Nova has the best game to beat Duke.

I'm glad for the Greensboro draw, now we just have to build on today's performance.

[dukestheheat]

I think a total change of mindset is necessary to handle the NCAAs (versus that of the regular season).

The regular season is all about: conference bragging rights, standings, point spreads...etc..

The NCAA tourney is all about: survive one game at a time no matter how you do it, and advance forward.

So I say bring on anyone out there; we have a team that's playing very well right now, battle-tested in the ACC, and we have Superman as the coach on the bench!

I am so excited about this Duke team and this 2009 tourney; this is our chance to re-paint the picture and exorcise the ghosts of the last couple years; while those experiences have made us what we are today, it's now time to kick them to the curb and win a bunch of games, starting with Binghamton on Thursday.

GO DUKE!

[RelativeWays]

I'm not that worried about Villanova, their guards are quick and can drive and score, but we'd reasonably be the underdog for that matchup. I just want to beat Binghamton and Texas/Minn first before worrying about them.

[TheBK]

Aside from Texas, I really like our draw in the East.

I think Pitt is the best matchup for Duke of the #1 seeds. They feed off of their defense (like Duke, at our best) but they can have problems scoring in bunches. It seemed like many of their games were played in the low-60s. After attending today's game in Atlanta, I came away more impressed with Duke's ability to handle pressure D and manufacture good looks at the basket. 4 TOs against Florida State was great.

On paper, I would worry more about Villanova, but after watching them in the Big East tourney, I came away unimpressed. I really think teams that rely on their guards for too much scoring are at a disdvantage against us. I know Douglas, Vasquez, and Rice got some points against us, but I think we did a great job at limiting quality touches. Duke's defense in the 1st half today was keyed by limiting Douglas's looks at forcing less skilled big men to shoot over Z, LT, or Kyle.

My biggest concern for Duke is meeting a team like Carolina with 2+ quality bigs--guys that can make their own shot, knock down 10 footers and hurt us on the glass. We can hold our own for a while, but it's not as tight of a unit for us. For smaller teams, a lineup of Singler, McClure, Henderson, Sheyer, and Smith/Williams is really tough to score on, because they are quick and have three guys who can block shots.

Go Duke!

[Indoor66]

Aside from Texas, I really like our draw in the East.

I think Pitt is the best matchup for Duke of the #1 seeds. They feed off of their defense (like Duke, at our best) but they can have problems scoring in bunches. It seemed like many of their games were played in the low-60s. After attending today's game in Atlanta, I came away more impressed with Duke's ability to handle pressure D and manufacture good looks at the basket. 4 TOs against Florida State was great.

On paper, I would worry more about Villanova, but after watching them in the Big East tourney, I came away unimpressed. I really think teams that rely on their guards for too much scoring are at a disdvantage against us. I know Douglas, Vasquez, and Rice got some points against us, but I think we did a great job at limiting quality touches. Duke's defense in the 1st half today was keyed by limiting Douglas's looks at forcing less skilled big men to shoot over Z, LT, or Kyle.

My biggest concern for Duke is meeting a team like Carolina with 2+ quality bigs--guys that can make their own shot, knock down 10 footers and hurt us on the glass. We can hold our own for a while, but it's not as tight of a unit for us. For smaller teams, a lineup of Singler, McClure, Henderson, Sheyer, and Smith/Williams is really tough to score on, because they are quick and have three guys who can block shots.

Go Duke!

Texas carries around a huge burdon: Rick Barnes.

[Double DD]

Just some thoughts. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy have Binghamton as the lowest ranked of the #15 seeds and both have Pittsburgh's opponent, East Tennessee State ranked a lot higher. So, I think this is as favourable a first round matchup as Duke could have gotten.

In the 2nd round, I certainly like Texas or Minnesota as a matchup a lot more than West Virginia last year as both are playing poorer as of late. The danger with Texas would be that they don't take a lot of 3's and so Duke's biggest strength on defense, their ability to prevent perimeter shots isn't as effective. Minnesota has really struggled down the stretch and are 6-9 in their last 15, with 2 of those wins over Indiana.

As for Sweet 16 matchups, UCLA and Villanova are both guard-oriented teams who are playing some really good offense lately. The Bruins trio of seniors are of course trying to join Laettner and co. as one of the few players who've been to 4 consecutive final fours. They're also the best shooting team in the country. Although the main advantage to that I can see, is that something similar to what happened against LSU in '06 could occur if they run into some loose officiating as they'll have a hard time manufacturing points if Duke can play physical with them. I think Duke matches up well against both teams if they start playing some of their defense from earlier in the year.

As for VCU, Maynor is the only major contributer who played on that '07 team still left. They only have 2 losses all year by more than 6 pts, one by 11 to Oklahoma and the other by 9 to a terrible UNC-Wilmington team. But, on the flipside they're also one of the youngest teams in the tournament.

As for the other half of the bracket, I would love it if Pitt got knocked out early. Blair's definitely their key because of his offensive rebounding, which is what makes their offense arguably the best in the country. If you can get him into foul trouble or somehow manage to limit his effectiveness on the offensive glass, they're eminently beatable. But, of course that's easier said than done and it's probably the weakest part of Duke's defense (although they're not poor at it, just average) and one of the few matchups where not having a true big man who can play heavy minutes hurts. However, Duke might have had their best defensive performance of the year last year against Pitt and this is a pretty similar squad, so who knows. I think Pitt should be happy they didn't get Oklahoma as their 2 however, since Blair wouldn't be able to push Blake Griffin around and he could put Blair in some early foul trouble, which would probably cook them.

As always, I think the best thing is to have a little bit of luck on your side. Too bad that you can't recruit that.

[texas]

Barnes has been to the sweet 16 in 5 of the last 7 years so he must be doing something right (and not just rolling the ball out onto the court and saying have at it). Strong point is defensive coaching, we block a lot of shots. One thing a lot of our fans I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. about is the X's and O's on offense, but frankly this year has been tough due to a lack of a decent point guard. We had a lapse in recruiting since J'Covan Brown didn't qualify academically (first one of those i can remember at texas in awhile) so it has been PG by committee until recently and now Dougas Balbay (from turkey) has been the main guy. Duke guards should dominate us from what i've seen. Our advantage is big Dex, as in dexter pittman. he's quite a remarkable story.

good article on dex here in the USA today:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/big12/2009-02-10-texas-pittman-cover_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip

[GoingFor#5]

I am almost sure we'll play at 7 or 9 as we always do. I have noticed UNC does not get the prime time slot as much as us and being in a boring 1/16 matchup could easily play at Noon. Unfortunately many will miss Radford's upset of the Holes though.

[banneheim]

Texas scares me...Abrams must be contained! I'm more scared of Young of Pitt than Blair...

[dukie8]

Barnes has been to the sweet 16 in 5 of the last 7 years so he must be doing something right (and not just rolling the ball out onto the court and saying have at it). Strong point is defensive coaching, we block a lot of shots. One thing a lot of our fans I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. about is the X's and O's on offense, but frankly this year has been tough due to a lack of a decent point guard. We had a lapse in recruiting since J'Covan Brown didn't qualify academically (first one of those i can remember at texas in awhile) so it has been PG by committee until recently and now Dougas Balbay (from turkey) has been the main guy. Duke guards should dominate us from what i've seen. Our advantage is big Dex, as in dexter pittman. he's quite a remarkable story.

good article on dex here in the USA today:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/big12/2009-02-10-texas-pittman-cover_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip

not when you look at the talent he has had. his durrant team was upset early. his aldridge/gibson team that was #2 when it got crushed in the meadowlands didn't make the FF.

[4xduke]

Digger just picked Pitt to defeat Xavier in the elite 8 - that would be some trick to have a #1 seed meet a #4 seed in that round.

Experts?

They'll all pick against us until we win some games in the tourney b/c of our performances the last couple of years - it's the easy way to go.

[A-Tex Devil]

not when you look at the talent he has had. his durrant team was upset early. his aldridge/gibson team that was #2 when it got crushed in the meadowlands didn't make the FF.

I don't think Barnes is the BEST coach in the world, but he's not nearly as hopeless as you make him out to be. That team you are talking about that did not make the final four made it one round further than the #1 seed Duke that year, but lost to the same LSU team that Duke did. Barnes has had the same, if not more success, than Duke in the tourney since Duke last won a title.

He has struggled trying to figure out how to have a consistent offense with the current team, and some of that is on him, but he's always been a really, really good defensive coach. I actually don't mind the matchup, though, from Duke's perspective. So long as Pittman is contained and AJ doesn't go off, Texas has had a hard time beating good teams.

[DankeShane]

Digger just picked Pitt to defeat Xavier in the elite 8 - that would be some trick to have a #1 seed meet a #4 seed in that round.

Experts?

They'll all pick against us until we win some games in the tourney b/c of our performances the last couple of years - it's the easy way to go.

This is exactly why I can't stand listening to these talking heads anymore. They all sit around making their "brave and bold" predictions of Duke being upset by team X, then either Duke goes on to win and they just pick the next team to beat us. That or the team actually does upset us and they sit around in a nice circle jerk congratulating each other's prophetic wisdom for picking the upset, even though they ALWAYS pick against Duke.

[RelativeWays]

Hey Digger, this is not 2008. Xavier kinda sucks this year and will not make it past the 1st weekend.

[superdave]

Has had 4 or 5 fouls in Pitt's four losses this year.

But Pitt seems to be everyone's favorite right now. I bet Unc starts etting that kin of buzz by the end of the week.

[KrazyKfan]

I like the draw.. G'boro should be a nice early start.. Pitt/ Villinova,, and gawd, wouldn't it be nice for VCU to get through a few rounds and then have the rematch with Maynor.

Devils make final 4 :cool:

That would be awesome because I could get some closure on that last second shot...ugh...so close....

[jipops]

Someone made a good point on ESPN about how Villanova is a spread the floor, set ball screens and penetrate type of team. It's true that this could give Duke trouble (if they meet), because although Nolan and Elliot are elite on-ball defenders, that won't matter if they are switched off and Kyle or Lance is isolated against a quick guard in a spread set.

Now that is quite a stretch. I'm pretty sure neither Nolan nor Elliot were on any of the conference all-defense lists. They're good defenders no doubt, but elite?... I'd say not.

Nova would be a very, very tough matchup for us.

[ncexnyc]

I think we're in a pretty open bracket. Just about every team you name has some quality players and can do some serious damage, but all of them have question marks.

I have a feeling that this bracket will provide a number of so called upsets.

[gumbomoop]

Having posted several times the last 24 hours re seedings 1-4, I understand it's important now to focus not on Pitt, Xavier, Villanova, UCLA, VCU, FSU, but on Binghamton and Texas/Minnesota. Here are links to stats on each team.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/teams/stats?teamId=251

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/teams/stats?teamId=135

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/teams/stats?teamId=2066

If we beat Binghamton, as we should, I personally worry more about Texas than Minnesota. Don't know what happened to Texas, which was preseason top 10 and Big 12 favorite. They have several dangerous players. Some of you will recall that Gary Johnson, an undersized but fierce rebounder, was a Duke recruit target. I hear Minnesota is tough defensively. Binghamton has nothing to lose, so let's have no Belmont this year.

[roywhite]

Now that is quite a stretch. I'm pretty sure neither Nolan nor Elliot were on any of the conference all-defense lists. They're good defenders no doubt, but elite?... I'd say not.

Nova would be a very, very tough matchup for us.

Kyle Singler...so versatile; Gerald Henderson...one of the best players in the tournament; Jon Scheyer...so steady and smart at the point; Nolan Smith...returning to form as a scorer and a defender; Elliot Williams...the athletic defender, rebounder, and driver; Role players like McClure, Zoubs, LT, Paulus; the Great Coach K on the bench....

Yep, Duke will be a very, very, very tough matchup for Villanova, or anybody else!!

[The1Bluedevil]

I was at Allen Field House last Sunday watching Texas vs. Kansas. Kansas ultimately won the game on senior night but Texas put on an offensive clinic for nearly 25 minutes of the game.

Dexter Pittman is a load inside that is productive in the 20-25 minutes he plays per game. He is averaging 16 points in their last 6 games.

Damion James can either put up 20 points in the first half against Kansas or score 29 total points in the three Big 12 tournament games

A.J. Abrams everyone knows what he can do.

Dogus Balbay is a freshman point guard that is a Doug Gottlieb clone. Quick point guard that handles the ball real well but will only shoot uncontested lay-ups.

Justin Mason is strictly a role player that plays solid defense. Not much of a scoring threat.

Subs- Gary Johnson is an undersized post that Duke recruited that plays very hard and could be a tough match up in the post especially going up against smaller players.

Connor Atchley has had a terrible senior year. Nbadraft.net had him as their top senior prospect at the start of the year and now he is relegated to 15 minutes per game. Strictly a pick and pop guy.

Varez Ward smaller version of Mason.

For those of you who don’t get to watch much of the Horns, they play a lot of 2-3 zone. Bringing Pittman out to guard pick and rolls may not happen very often if at all.

One game that I thought is a good sign for Duke if they meet is Texas’s game vs. Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is a poor man’s version of Duke that held Texas to 32 % shooting and had a 17 point 2nd half lead.

Go Gophers!!!!

[DukeDevilDeb]

Having posted several times the last 24 hours re seedings 1-4, I understand it's important now to focus not on Pitt, Xavier, Villanova, UCLA, VCU, FSU, but on Binghamton and Texas/Minnesota. Here are links to stats on each team.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/teams/stats?teamId=251

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/teams/stats?teamId=135

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/teams/stats?teamId=2066

If we beat Binghamton, as we should, I personally worry more about Texas than Minnesota. Don't know what happened to Texas, which was preseason top 10 and Big 12 favorite. They have several dangerous players. Some of you will recall that Gary Johnson, an undersized but fierce rebounder, was a Duke recruit target. I hear Minnesota is tough defensively. Binghamton has nothing to lose, so let's have no Belmont this year.

This may be the most important message in this thread. Although I truly believe that this year's squad is substantially better than the two previous ones, they also have little NCAA experience. Let's beat the first one :) ... then worry about the others. :p

[tbyers11]

Here is a link (http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/ncaa/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2009mbkbracketdivision1.pdf) to the game times

Duke plays the late game Th night approx 9:40pm EDT and if they win will play at either 5:45 or 8:15 EDT depending on the whims of CBS

[bsktballpunk2253]

I've been lurking on this board for awhile... but I just HAD to comment about this.

I actually live in Binghamton. I was so excited when they won their tournament and got into the NCAA Tournament for the first time. I was ready to root for the upset. But when I was watching the selection show and they popped up as playing against Duke... I was screaming, "NOOOOOO!" (after laughing at the irony) because now, I can't root for my hometown.

[OldSchool]

Duke plays the late game Th night approx 9:40pm EDT and if they win will play at either 5:45 or 8:15 EDT depending on the whims of CBS

I actually think it's a good thing to play the late game. Probably will be much fewer Hole fans sticking around so late to cheer against us, although the few that do will be drunker.

[tbyers11]

Thanks! Figures we get the late game!

No problem. At least we get the late game (and if we win) and a later game on Saturday. A couple of years ago, didn't we have a late first round game followed by an early second round call that Coach K rightfully complained about.

[jipops]

This is exactly why I can't stand listening to these talking heads anymore. They all sit around making their "brave and bold" predictions of Duke being upset by team X, then either Duke goes on to win and they just pick the next team to beat us. That or the team actually does upset us and they sit around in a nice circle jerk congratulating each other's prophetic wisdom for picking the upset, even though they ALWAYS pick against Duke.

The problem is they've been almost every time since 2001.

If we get by Binghamton which will by no means be an easy task we may then take on Texas which is a viable elite 8 caliber team. I feel like parts of that matchup work in our favor a bit with their pg issues (Abrams is no DJ Augustin), but we'll have to see how it plays out.

I really don't feel good about a potential matchup with Villanova. This team is extremely tough and a legit FF team (I picked them to win this region). They create matchup issues for everyone and could wreak havoc for us if we get that far. I have a difficult time seeing us getting past the sweet 16 in this one though I would find some satisfaction in just getting that far.

[ice-9]

This is a decent draw. There are a few potential red flags but overall, this is a decent bracket because of potential upsets that can happen which would prove favorable to us.

Texas is definitely a dangerous opponent. I personally fear teams with talent that underperformed in the regular season -- some of those teams have the tendency to finally play to their potential when every game is potentially their last. Texas would certainly qualify. However, there is a reasonable chance that they would get upset by Minnesota. Minnesota is a very good defensive team and Texas' problem is offense. If Tubby can beat Barnes, Minnesota would be a very favorable second round match-up for us.

Villanova looms as a potential Sweet 16 opponent. Unfortunately, it seems like we got the strongest 3 seed (I'd much rather play against Kansas, Missouri or Syracuse). Villanova can hurt us with their quick guards, but they don't have anyone inside that will cause us to deviate from our normal game plan. But look who Villanova would have to go through to get to the Sweet 16: UCLA or VCU. It'll probably be UCLA, a senior laden team with good guards. Further, Howland's teams usually play great defense. I think there is a very good chance that UCLA can upset Villanova, and UCLA would be a reasonable team for us to face in the Sweet 16. Don't forget that UCLA is another team highly ranked in the preseason.

Pittsburgh is our 1 seed. Again, this looks bad because we probably got the second worse 1 seed for us (UNC being the worse). But I think Pitt can potentially have a very, very tough path to the Elite 8. First, they will have to play Tennessee or Oklahoma St. I think the latter is overrated, but the former is underrated -- Tennessee is well coached and played the second toughest schedule in the country. The Vols have a chance of upsetting Pitt. I'm not sure Florida State can get to the Sweet 16 (they have an incredibly tough first round against a disciplined Wisconsin team and will likely have to beat Xavier), but IF Florida State can meet Pitt in the Sweet 16...I smell upset. Rematches are difficult on the team that won the first time, and Pitt just narrowly beat FSU this season. If FSU can get there, they have a decent chance of beating Pitt.

And even if we do end up playing Pitt in the Elite 8, I still like our chances. It'll practically be a rematch of last year's game, where Pitt beat us in OT, but since then we've improved much more than they have.

We're peaking at the right time this year and the bracket -- if not favorable -- is at least decent. I have a good feeling about April. :D

[geraldsneighbor]

No problem. At least we get the late game (and if we win) and a later game on Saturday. A couple of years ago, didn't we have a late first round game followed by an early second round call that Coach K rightfully complained about.

In Greensboro I know we had played a late game Thursday night and then the early one vs. GW on Saturday.

[buzz]

X-factors for this team:

1. 3-pointers dropping, especially Scheyer's.
2. Nolan playing aggressively on offense.
3. Zoubek getting off to a good start and playing tough interior defense.

Today was a perfect example of what can happen when all of those things come into harmony. Very few teams can beat us when they do. I like our bracket. Texas is the only early matchup concern in my mind, but they are inconsistent. I'll take our small lineup vs any other small lineup in the country, including Villanova's. UCLA and Minnesota are small too. Overall, I'd say we present greater matchup problems for these teams than they do for us. Pitt would be a very tough regional with Blair and Young, but let's get there first.

[_Gary]

X-factors for this team:

1. 3-pointers dropping, especially Scheyer's.
2. Nolan playing aggressively on offense.
3. Zoubek getting off to a good start and playing tough interior defense.



I concur wholeheartedly with those 3 "X-factor" picks. I imagine we could add a couple more if we thought about it, but for all intents and purposes those are definitely the big ones.

I guess I am a little worried that we still seem very, very dependent on the 3 ball. But at the same time we are playing the hand we have been dealt and I applaud Coach K for getting this latest lineup in place just in time for them to gel. I like it a lot. As long as we can shoot the 3 at about 40% we should be ok. We can afford a small drop from that percentage, but we can't afford to dip to something like 20% and win. I just couldn't see that happening.

[Kewlswim]

Hi,

After the first game (and we learned last year that is no gimme) all the games are going to be against really good competition. There aren't bad teams anymore. Sure one can match-up better or worse with one team or another, but if a team isn't playing well the team is going to most likely head home. Luck is important, but a team still needs to be playing well.

Here is where I just don't understand the pundits. By any objective measure Duke is playing very, very well against some really good competition. One top team after another has fallen by the wayside to the Devils. We have ONLY lost to Carolina when the "Toe" decided he was well enough to play. Even then it took a monumental effort by Carolina to beat the Devils. One will never know what would have happened, but if the Devils had played the Heels today with or without Lawson I think we beat them. There is a swagger, a "were a cocky" bunch that is going to kick I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. look in this team now. I am excited. We are playing well, let the chips fall where they may.

GO DUKE!

[KrazyKfan]

This is exactly why I can't stand listening to these talking heads anymore. They all sit around making their "brave and bold" predictions of Duke being upset by team X, then either Duke goes on to win and they just pick the next team to beat us. That or the team actually does upset us and they sit around in a nice circle jerk congratulating each other's prophetic wisdom for picking the upset, even though they ALWAYS pick against Duke.

There is a point to that though. We have not made the final 4 since 2004 and JJ's senior year we bowed out early in the Sweet 16.

I say we come out and make a statement in the first two rounds, demolish binghamton, turn the longhorns into ground beef or stomp the gophers back into their little holes.

In the mean time, hopefully we can get the Jonny Flynn and the Orangemen to beat the ill-colored tarheels. I think that will happen because Lawson can't defend a good PG, Ex. Rice, Teague, Douglas, and Scheyer.

[-bdbd]

The analysts on ESPN were saying tonight that the East Region is the most loaded overall. Can't say I disagree. That said, I don't think it lays out poorly for us until we get to the Elite-8. (I had said days ago that Pitt would be our first or second-worst 1-seed matchup. Their inside game is just scary -- but we have more depth and could wear down that monster Center of theirs.)

I see us likely making the third round vs Villanova, as they're unlikely to lose in the first 2 rounds (in Philly!). But I think our thee "guards" can guard their 3 perimeter guys nicely - Scheyer, Henderson and E-mail. Plus Nolan is coming back fairly strong. I am curious to see if they'd have enough interior strength to do anything about Zoubs... esp if we played him with one or 2 other bigs.

I see this region ultimately coming down to Duke-Pitt (though upsets can occur). I trust K to have a solid game plan to try to use Singler to take their inside strength out of the lane. That game would rise or fall on our outside shooting though. But I would also look to see a lot of Zoubs and Plumlee and/or Lance inside - getting him into his foul-prone tendencies.

I don't hate this line-up for us, overall. My big Q for the first 2 rounds: WHEN does Kerlina play and the 30,000 fans (or so it'll seem) that they'll pack into Greensboro, who may linger to root for Binghamton and then the Tex/Minn winner vs Duke???

- BDBD :D
"Here we go! Wahooo!"

[COYS]

I don't think people should sleep on UCLA, either. Nova is a good team, but UCLA can be, as well. Howland has been great at getting his guys up for the tourney the past three seasons, and while the team is not nearly as refined as the past three final four Bruin squads have been, they will play fundamentally sound defense and, despite being inconsistent on offense, have enough weapons to advance. I definitely think they are a very dangerous six seed, and with a few more bounces going their way this season, they would have been seeded significantly higher. In fact, UCLA and WVU are both ranked in the top ten in kenpom's rankings. Obviously, stats aren't everything, but these are two dangerous six seeds.

[bjornolf]

When they said that we were easy pickin's for Pitt, I could have sworn one of the talking heads said that Pitt already beat us this year. Am I hallucinating about that? If not, um, looking at our schedule, I don't see Pitt on there. Wasn't that last year? I don't think Pitt OR Duke are really comparable to where they were early LAST season at all. Do you? Heck, I don't think Duke's the same team they were in December of THIS year. Does their beating us last year really mean anything in a possible tourney game THIS season? REALLY?

It's funny, the talking heads were all saying that the fact that we beat FSU TWICE this season meant nothing and that FSU was going beat us down. These same talking heads seem to think that because Pitt beat us before we don't stand a chance. Double standard anybody?

[Highlander]

When they said that we were easy pickin's for Pitt, I could have sworn one of the talking heads said that Pitt already beat us this year. Am I hallucinating about that? If not, um, looking at our schedule, I don't see Pitt on there. Wasn't that last year? I don't think Pitt OR Duke are really comparable to where they were early LAST season at all. Do you? Heck, I don't think Duke's the same team they were in December of THIS year. Does their beating us last year really mean anything in a possible tourney game THIS season? REALLY?

It's funny, the talking heads were all saying that the fact that we beat FSU TWICE this season meant nothing and that FSU was going beat us down. These same talking heads seem to think that because Pitt beat us before we don't stand a chance. Double standard anybody?

True, and the game vs. Pitt (from last season) was lost by one point. In overtime. With the majority of their current roster. Doesn't really translate to beatdown this year IMO.

[GoingFor#5]

When they said that we were easy pickin's for Pitt, I could have sworn one of the talking heads said that Pitt already beat us this year. Am I hallucinating about that? If not, um, looking at our schedule, I don't see Pitt on there. Wasn't that last year? I don't think Pitt OR Duke are really comparable to where they were early LAST season at all. Do you? Heck, I don't think Duke's the same team they were in December of THIS year. Does their beating us last year really mean anything in a possible tourney game THIS season? REALLY?

It's funny, the talking heads were all saying that the fact that we beat FSU TWICE this season meant nothing and that FSU was going beat us down. These same talking heads seem to think that because Pitt beat us before we don't stand a chance. Double standard anybody?

It is a double standard and it is because Duke is always on TV and everyone watches our games and has all of our losses memorized. Nobody remembers a Duke win, they remember a Duke loss. To most analysts, Duke is 0-6 and never beat anyone good. UNC, on the other hand, is undefeated except when they were resting or strategically losing.

[davekay1971]

I'm excited about our bracket. It's definitely not an easy draw. But it's one where we can make some noise if we play well.

I follow the general sentiment that no teams are lousy at this point, and we'd better be ready to play starting Thursday. But we should be Binghamton, obviously, and we should beat Texas or Minnesota. No locks, but we should be able to manage it.

I think VCU will upset UCLA, but I see Villanova getting out of Philly. Duke-Villanova will be a fun, fun game. Great guard play on both sides, well matched up teams. I have confidence in this Duke team that they can beat anybody, but Villanova will be a huge challenge.

From the other side of the bracket, Pitt shouldn't lose. I don't see ETSU, OSU, or Tenn putting up much of a fight. FSU is probably the best matchup for Pitt, but Pitt's just better at every position, except for Toney Douglas. Xavier-FSU will be an interesting fight, but I don't think Xavier, if they get by FSU, has much of a chance against Pitt.

So I think it comes down to Pitt vs. either us or Villanova. I think we give Pitt a better fight than Nova does, but I'm biased. I would love to see us up against Pitt. It's not like we haven't played and been successful against strong interior play already this year, but, of course, Pitt's inside game is at a different level. But if our big 3 are on and we play with the effort and heart that is this team's trademark...who knows? It would certainly be a heck of a win.

[miramar]

I don't worry about Pitt since the only thing that concerns me at this time is the first weekend. With all the upsets that seem to take place, especially this year, you never know whom you'll face if you are fortunate enough to advance so there's no need to get ahead of ourselves.

Obviously Binghampton will be no problem, but if we play Texas next I have to say I enjoyed A-Tex Devil's analysis. I received an MA from Texas and have followed the team this year, and they can play some great basketball, but they often don't quite seem in sync offensively. Since Duke is a team that can take you out of your game anyway, that would be a good matchup for Duke if both teams advance.

People have been dumping on Barnes, which is a shame for probably the most famous graduate Lenoir-Rhyne College has ever had! At any rate, he seems to be the good news and the bad news. According to Wikipedia, he has gone to the Sweet Sixteen five out of the last seven years, but then he has also lost to a lower-seeded team seven out of his ten years at Texas.

Hmmm, does anyone know anything about Minnesota?

[miramar]

Well, we can all be quiet now that our exalted alumnus has had his say:

"There's no one in the bottom half of the bracket who is going to beat Pitt in the round of eight. Duke is better than the past two seasons when it flamed out the first weekend but not that much better. The Blue Devils should beat Tony Kornheiser's Binghamton Bearcats (the man was in tears when his school made the tournament Saturday) but historically Duke has struggled in first-round games coming off ACC tournament titles. If the Blue Devils do survive, they should beat Texas."

If the Blue Devils do survive? Not that much better? Oh, Lord. I guess he's not sorry about saying that the ACC is a one-team conference.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/15/AR2009031502126.html?hpid=topnews

[mr. synellinden]

Maybe Duke shouldn't even bother showing up. I have yet to see one so-called expert who thinks we will win the East (not that their opinions really matter, it's just interesting to see the perception of Duke -- have they been watching them the last month?). To wit:

Jeff Goodman, Fox Sports:

Pittsburgh may not have received the top overall seed, but Jamie Dixon's team appears to have gotten the easiest road to the Final Four. If things work as planned, the Panthers would have to get past No. 4 Xavier or No. 5 Florida State in the Sweet 16 and potentially No. 2 Duke to advance to the Final Four. That's not overly intimidating.

Luke Winn, SI:

The No. 1 with the most favorable No. 2 pairing ... is Pitt, in the East. The Panthers were slotted opposite the one two-seed that has absolutely no answer for DeJuan Blair: Duke. The nation's best rebounder should have a field day if he meets the Blue Devils. The secret to Blair's rebounding prowess, he told us, is that "I pretend that every rebound is a million dollars." He could become a very rich man in the Elite Eight.

--and --

The actual odds for the top six teams, from Las Vegas Sports Consultants, as of 12:49 a.m. Monday:

North Carolina: 2-1
Pitt: 4-1
Louisville: 9-2
UConn: 5-1
Memphis: 10-1
Duke: 10-1

One Vegas-related observation ... is that Duke is a curiously high-valued team in the eyes of the oddsmakers. I'm not expecting the Blue Devils to get past the Sweet 16, and yet LVSC thinks they have an equally strong shot as Memphis does of winning the national title.

--and --

The safest Sweet 16 upset pick ... is No. 3 Villanova over No. 2 Duke, in Boston. Nova is the overlooked power coming out of the Big East, but it happens to have the league's best set of guards. Scottie Reynolds, who powered the Wildcats to the Sweet 16 last season as a No. 12 seed, is an accomplished tourney scorer and he, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Reggie Redding are too much for the Blue Devils to handle.

It's interesting to note that Mr. Winn opines all of this despite pointing out the following:

Statistics that matter, part II: All of the national title winners since 2005 have finished in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. There are only six teams who fit that profile this year, and only one of them happens to be a No. 1 seed. They are: UConn, Gonzaga, Duke, West Virginia, Missouri and Kansas.

Greg Doyel, CBS Sportsline:

Who will win: Villanova is my pick, and that scares me because the Sweet 16 will be tough for the 'Cats, against Duke. In the region final Villanova should see Pittsburgh, which it beat by 10 earlier this season (at home).

Doyel makes that pick despite saying (surprisingly):

A No. 1 seed is mainly an ego boost. It's not like it really matters if a team is the first seed or the second seed, not in this day of pods and geographic coddling of most of the top seeds. Still, I feel bad for Duke. For Duke's ego. Because the Blue Devils did what they needed to do to get a No. 1 seed, and the selection committee didn't reward them. Not sure which No. 1 seed should have gotten the boot to make room for Duke, but how can Duke have the best RPI in the country and win its conference tournament ... and not be a No. 1? Seriously. Explain that to me logically. Or rant and rave and call me a Duke homer, which might just kill me -- you can die laughing, you know -- but won't explain how Duke isn't a No. 1 seed despite its RPI and its ACC tournament championship and its eight wins in its last nine games, the only loss coming at North Carolina. Duke didn't even get the top No. 2 seed, presumably, because the selection committee's S-shaped curve is supposed to put the best No. 2 seed in the same region as the worst No. 1. And the fourth No. 1 seed was Connecticut. Pittsburgh was the second overall No. 1 seed.


ESPN:

All of the game day "experts" picked Pitt or Villanova.


Wait, I just found one (http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/29712323/):

Okay, maybe we should show up.

[allenmurray]

I really hope Duke wins. I think they can. But I don't find it all that surprising when columnists pick the #1 seed to win the region. The fact that they are perceived to be the best team in the region is, after all, why they are the number 1 seed.

[jv001]

All of a sudden I'm liking NBC Sports. Maybe this guy is on to something. Go Duke!

[geraldsneighbor]

You can put me down for UCLA over Nova. I just feel like we are partly destined to play them after they were in our region last year, in the C vs. C this year and now our region again this year. I also think UCLA's veteran backcourt won't be out of sorts playing a road game on Nova's home floor. I think that while Nova is a good team, UCLA's defense is very strong and they also have Darren Collison.

[mr. synellinden]

I really hope Duke wins. I think they can. But I don't find it all that surprising when columnists pick the #1 seed to win the region. The fact that they are perceived to be the best team in the region is, after all, why they are the number 1 seed.

It's not so much the picking of Pitt as it is the dismissing of Duke and saying the Pitt got the easiest draw or easiest 2 seed.

Would Pitt really rather play Duke than Michigan St. or OU? As Luke Winn pointed out, Duke is one of 6 teams that fit the championship profile, and the only one in the East. Every other team in our bracket should be fearing Duke.

[ice-9]

Maybe Duke shouldn't even bother showing up. I have yet to see one so-called expert who thinks we will win the East (not that their opinions really matter, it's just interesting to see the perception of Duke -- have they been watching them the last month?).


Gary Parrish from CBS Sports has us in the Final Four along with UNC, Wake and UConn. He's been my favorite writer all year -- he's one of the few with original thought and research.

[Cormac]

is high on Duke right now. He said if UConn is a one seed, then he can totally see Duke winning the whole thing. Says they are playing with a ton of confidence right now which may be the most important part of winning the tournament. All this coming from a guy who has been really, really down on Duke for a few years now. Compares them to ND football at least once a day. Just saying, not every pundit out there is counting them out! Oh, and Fran Fraschilla (sp?) has Duke in his final four.

[Sgt. Dingleberry]

I guess I am a little worried that we still seem very, very dependent on the 3 ball. But at the same time we are playing the hand we have been dealt and I applaud Coach K for getting this latest lineup in place just in time for them to gel. I like it a lot.

Totally agree with you. With the live bodies we have on this team, Coach K has gotten them playing as well as they could at the right time....

That being said, we are going to live by the three and die by the three in any game we play. Look at yesterday's game....We went on a huge run in the first half when we were knocking down our threes, then we went cold and FSU cut it to 6. Then we went on another run in the second half and pushed it up to a 20 point lead. That is just how we play.

I think the other huge factors we play in any game is defensive rebounding and stopping penetration by other team's PG.

If we play well in those three areas we can beat anybody...if we don't we can lose to anybody...

[tonymac]

Duke plays on Thursday night at 9:30, and if they win, at 8:15 on Saturday night.

UNC plays at 2:40 on Thursday.

[Sgt. Dingleberry]

Well, we can all be quiet now that our exalted alumnus has had his say:

"There's no one in the bottom half of the bracket who is going to beat Pitt in the round of eight.

Villanova beat Pitt this year by 10...I would say that dispays that they have the ability to do it again...

I already sick of hearing definitive predictions....Nobody knows what is going to happen, it is all just educated speculation to tide over the waiting periods in between the games...

[Mal]

Some have asked for a bit more insight on Minnesota. Having grown up there, I'm certainly pulling for them to beat Texas. I'm also pulling for them to beat Texas because Texas terrifies me as a Duke fan. Not as much as West Virginia last year, but I hate the possibility of playing an underachieving but very talented team with a guy who can score 40 on any given night in a one and done format. Hate it. Any squad that can spend two months in the top 10 is a very difficult second round opponent, especially when they look at the Tourney as a do-over on their underachieving conference season. Terrifying. That said, Minnesota matches up with them fairly favorably, and Tubby knows what he's doing, so there's a decent chance we'll get them instead. It would be difficult to root against them, but I think I'll manage. And as someone who's followed both teams, I think there's no reason Duke wouldn't handle Minnesota easily.

Their strength, as others have noted, is defense. Tubby's put 10 guys in the regular rotation this year, and likes to use that depth of energy to run undisciplined teams ragged. This should come in handy against Texas. I don't have the numbers, but anecdotally I don't recall any particular players going off on the Gophers this year - you've got to beat them systematically, with a number of contributors, and protect the ball. That doesn't play to UT's strengths, to my knowledge. It certainly doesn't pose a significant issue to Duke, though.

They'd likely try to press Duke at times, but I think we've learned our lessons since Clemson and with Jon at the point I don't fear the Gopher pressure. Their secondary defensive strength, at least recently, has been Ralph Sampson III in the middle. I think he had 5 or 6 blocks against Northwestern the other day, mostly in the second half, and is turning into something of a presence. This strength won't get Minnesota very far against Duke, however, with minimal paint scoring and preference to drive and kick instead of lay it up.

The Gophs have epitomized the much-maligned "ugly" Big Televen game this year - they can slow down the pace and keep a decent offensive team under 70 or 75, but my do they struggle putting the ball in the bucket sometimes. They've had some guys like Damian Johnson step up and get some points here and there if the matchup is right, but there's almost no 3-point attack. Blake Hoffarber, who you'll recall as the ESPY-winning high schooler who hit the game winning 3-pointer off his back in a state tournament game a couple years ago, then had a huge turnaround buzzer beater last year against Indiana, was hoped to provide some bombing accuracy, but he's underathletic and hasn't done well in Tubby's system. Sampson and Colton Iverson are still quite unpolished and slim, easy to move off their position on the blocks. There's no 6'7" guy who can just find a way to score at will and take over, either.

The main exception to this is Lawrence Westbrook. He's a sparkplug of a guard with a very streaky game. One of those guys who occasionally tries to force it because the offensive flow feels stifled, goes 1 for his first 12 with some terrible shot selection, but then figures out how to break down his guy and scores 19 down the stretch to win the game. Shut him down (and Duke certainly has the personnel to do so), and Minnesota is severly limited offensively.

[UrinalCake]

Our old buddy Taylor King is at Villanova. He's not eligible to play this year after transfering, but might give them some inside into how to beat us. Though I'd like to think our team this year is much different from last; we'll see! The last time I remember something like this happening was when we played Michigan State in the final four in 1999 and Mike Chappell was on their team; he had an OK game against us.

[BlueintheFace]

1) I think we have a pretty tough road to the Final Four
2) Worst of all- If we actually make it there, Carolina might be waiting and the world might IMPLODE!!!!!!

[geraldsneighbor]

Villanova beat Pitt this year by 10...I would say that dispays that they have the ability to do it again...

I already sick of hearing definitive predictions....Nobody knows what is going to happen, it is all just educated speculation to tide over the waiting periods in between the games...

You get Dejaun Blair in foul trouble and things are completely different (see all of their losses). In no disrespect of Pitt, but I think playing FSU a 4th time worries me more. Pitt has had about as much success in the NCAAT of late as we have. I think were stack up pretty evenly with them, but they have Blair. It is funny though how we are being counted out already.

[The1Bluedevil]

If Duke and Pitt do play, how in the world would Blair get in foul trouble against Duke? Who would he have to break a sweat guarding?

[phaedrus]

If Duke and Pitt do play, how in the world would Blair get in foul trouble against Duke? Who would he have to break a sweat guarding?

That tall, gangly blonde kid with the floofy hair has been known to score points from time to time.

[SMO]

That tall, gangly blonde kid with the floofy hair has been known to score points from time to time.

Same kid has been known to foul out Blair before:o

[Ignatius07]

If Duke and Pitt do play, how in the world would Blair get in foul trouble against Duke? Who would he have to break a sweat guarding?

Hopefully drive at him with players like Nolan and Gerald, or get Singler to pull him from the basket.

Also, don't discount the chance of his picking up offensive fouls, especially if you get refs with an itchy trigger finger.

[geraldsneighbor]

If Duke and Pitt do play, how in the world would Blair get in foul trouble against Duke? Who would he have to break a sweat guarding?

If you can tell me who Providence and West Virginia have to get him in foul trouble, I'd be impressed.

[The1Bluedevil]

My best guess for West Virginia is that he was matched up on DeSean Butler for an extended amount of time. If he was not since I did not catch the game he probably picked up 2 or 3 silly fouls. Wellington Smith could not get him foul trouble.

Providence has Jon Kale a 6'8 245 post that had 13 against Pitt so I'm guessing Blair had to guard him in that game.

Villanova has Dante Cunnighman a type of player that Duke does not have.

Either way he gets in foul trouble because of himself not because of who he is guarding.

Best case scenario is Duke goes small and he has to guard Kyle, but I feel Coach Dixon would use Biggs on him before Blair.

[77devil]

The love for Duke and Coach K from our old friend Gregg Doyel is astounding. So what is his ulterior motive? ;)

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/11506334

[roywhite]

The love for Duke and Coach K from our old friend Gregg Doyel is astounding. So what is his ulterior motive? ;)

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/11506334

I encourage people not to click on Doyel articles.

He'll do or say pretty much anything to try for attention.

[DankeShane]

The love for Duke and Coach K from our old friend Gregg Doyel is astounding. So what is his ulterior motive? ;)

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/11506334

Gaah.. now I have to keep an eye out for the other three horsemen of the apocalypse...

[gumbomoop]

Some have asked for a bit more insight on Minnesota. Having grown up there, I'm certainly pulling for them to beat Texas. I'm also pulling for them to beat Texas because Texas terrifies me as a Duke fan. Not as much as West Virginia last year, but I hate the possibility of playing an underachieving but very talented team with a guy who can score 40 on any given night in a one and done format. Hate it. Any squad that can spend two months in the top 10 is a very difficult second round opponent, especially when they look at the Tourney as a do-over on their underachieving conference season. Terrifying. That said, Minnesota matches up with them fairly favorably, and Tubby knows what he's doing, so there's a decent chance we'll get them instead. It would be difficult to root against them, but I think I'll manage. And as someone who's followed both teams, I think there's no reason Duke wouldn't handle Minnesota easily.

Their strength, as others have noted, is defense. Tubby's put 10 guys in the regular rotation this year, and likes to use that depth of energy to run undisciplined teams ragged. This should come in handy against Texas. I don't have the numbers, but anecdotally I don't recall any particular players going off on the Gophers this year - you've got to beat them systematically, with a number of contributors, and protect the ball. That doesn't play to UT's strengths, to my knowledge. It certainly doesn't pose a significant issue to Duke, though.

They'd likely try to press Duke at times, but I think we've learned our lessons since Clemson and with Jon at the point I don't fear the Gopher pressure. Their secondary defensive strength, at least recently, has been Ralph Sampson III in the middle. I think he had 5 or 6 blocks against Northwestern the other day, mostly in the second half, and is turning into something of a presence. This strength won't get Minnesota very far against Duke, however, with minimal paint scoring and preference to drive and kick instead of lay it up.

The Gophs have epitomized the much-maligned "ugly" Big Televen game this year - they can slow down the pace and keep a decent offensive team under 70 or 75, but my do they struggle putting the ball in the bucket sometimes. They've had some guys like Damian Johnson step up and get some points here and there if the matchup is right, but there's almost no 3-point attack. Blake Hoffarber, who you'll recall as the ESPY-winning high schooler who hit the game winning 3-pointer off his back in a state tournament game a couple years ago, then had a huge turnaround buzzer beater last year against Indiana, was hoped to provide some bombing accuracy, but he's underathletic and hasn't done well in Tubby's system. Sampson and Colton Iverson are still quite unpolished and slim, easy to move off their position on the blocks. There's no 6'7" guy who can just find a way to score at will and take over, either.

The main exception to this is Lawrence Westbrook. He's a sparkplug of a guard with a very streaky game. One of those guys who occasionally tries to force it because the offensive flow feels stifled, goes 1 for his first 12 with some terrible shot selection, but then figures out how to break down his guy and scores 19 down the stretch to win the game. Shut him down (and Duke certainly has the personnel to do so), and Minnesota is severly limited offensively.

Mal's post is well worth reading for 3 reasons:
(1) He doesn't talk about Villa, UCLA, VCU, much less Pitt, X, FSU. I myself spent hours just this past Fri-Sun feverishly gaming the 1-4-seed-mini- bracketology stuff, because all was fun speculation then. But now we have immediate prospects of real, tough-enough, opponents.
(2) He's on target in worries about Texas. I've no clue as to how a team with this much talent lost so many games - and I take some comfort in that fact - but they do look rather more dangerous than Minnesota......
(3) .... who look dangerous enough. Admittedly, Mal's informed analysis does not shout at us, "Minnesota is dangerous," but the analysis itself implies, "Obsess over Pitt et al after Sat night, not before, for we got other priorities right now."

I realize the irony in chastising others for not focusing on task at hand, and then talking about Texas/Minnesota. So, where's our Mal out there who can run down Binghamton for us? All I know is:
(1) They got no size.
(2) They play 5 guys lots of minutes, go only 7-deep, and that's a stretch.
(3) They must be [?? obviously I don't know this] pretty quick.
(4) They are neither a great 3-pt nor free throw shooting team.
(5) But, they are our next, therefore by far most important, opponent.
(6) And therefore, assume they are Belmont.

Focus, for Madness beckons.

[RockyMtDevil]

Anyone NOT wanting to see FSU a 4th time? If we are lucky enough to get through the first weekend, I'd rather see a Pitt team for the first time that an FSU team that could beat us on any given night...Am I crazy to want Pitt over FSU?

Let's just focus on binghamton for now...I believe the last two years have taught all of us that NOTHING should be taken for granted.

[texas]

(2) He's on target in worries about Texas. I've no clue as to how a team with this much talent lost so many games - and I take some comfort in that fact - but they do look rather more dangerous than Minnesota......

a) for the first time in awhile, we have ZERO mcdonald's AA on our team

b) no true PG most of the year and one decent outside shooter (AJ Abrams) who other teams figured out how to guard

those two reasons are pretty much why we've "underperformed" this year although my expectations have been met. after losing DJ Augustin last year we weren't expecting much this year.

[Indoor66]

a) for the first time in awhile, we have ZERO mcdonald's AA on our team

b) no true PG most of the year and one decent outside shooter (AJ Abrams) who other teams figured out how to guard

those two reasons are pretty much why we've "underperformed" this year although my expectations have been met. after losing DJ Augustin last year we weren't expecting much this year.

Do all the players at Texas go by initials as a first name?

[DukieInKansas]

I probably voted more with my heart than my head. I DO think this Duke team can beat anyone on any given night, so I went with Duke. (I know that must be a huge shock.)

[dukie8]

a) for the first time in awhile, we have ZERO mcdonald's AA on our team

b) no true PG most of the year and one decent outside shooter (AJ Abrams) who other teams figured out how to guard

those two reasons are pretty much why we've "underperformed" this year although my expectations have been met. after losing DJ Augustin last year we weren't expecting much this year.

UT was preseason ranked #7 so other people we expecting a bit more than yourself.

[texas]

Do all the players at Texas go by initials as a first name?

:D only the good ones.

KD, DJ, PJ, AJ . . . well KD doesn't really count but they did call him k-smoove

kids coming in next year have regular first names: shawn, avery, and jordan. i might need to talk to barnes about that.

[houstondukie]

DUKE vs louisville (pitino-ketucky) for the championship?

[BlueintheFace]

shhhhhhhhhhh... SHHHH!

[rsvman]

I sincerely hope not.

[BlueintheFace]

AJ Abrams (quicker than anyone on our team) + Dexter Pittman (larger than anyone on our team)= A VERY Serious Game

[texas]

UT was preseason ranked #7 so other people we expecting a bit more than yourself.

true. and pre-season basketball polls are about as accurate as jim cramer's stock pics :)

[killerleft]

If Carolina can make it that far:p

[A-Tex Devil]

a) for the first time in awhile, we have ZERO mcdonald's AA on our team

b) no true PG most of the year and one decent outside shooter (AJ Abrams) who other teams figured out how to guard

those two reasons are pretty much why we've "underperformed" this year although my expectations have been met. after losing DJ Augustin last year we weren't expecting much this year.

This is largely correct. This Texas team reminds me so much of Duke 2 years ago (not in style of play, but in expectations vs. reality). Texas (like Duke) had a lot of players play REALLY well last year that came back. But it helps when you had a lottery pick point guard running the show. Conor Atchley's game has really fallen off a cliff this year. I think a lot of that was that his game meshed well with DJ Augustine. Justin Mason hasn't been nearly as effective due to being forced to run point for a while -- something he was clearly ill suited to do. Some players have appeared to regress - when in actuality, DJ made them better.

This is similar (in an opposite way) to how Paulus' game SEEMED to drop between his freshman and sophmore years. But when you have JJ and Shelden to pass to, they can make lots of PGs seem like future Bobby Hurleys (whose name got thrown around ALOT during Paulus' freshman year).

And as far as talking about Binghamton or even Minnesota, frankly, they are less interesting to me and speculation on the matchup with UT is more entertaining. If it doesn't happen, so be it. I'll pay attention to MN if they beat UT. If we lose to Binghamton. Well.... let's not, because the things I'll say and think may cause me to lose my Duke-fan card. :eek:

[Atlanta Duke]

The Pitt beat writer for the local Pittsburgh paper certainly has his stereotypes locked and loaded for a Duke match-up if it comes to pass:)

Pitt needs to get to the Final Four this season because (1) the Panthers have the talent to do it (2) they have the experience to do it and (3) now we know they have the bracket to do it. ...

And as No. 2 seeds go, is there a better matchup for Pitt than soft-as-a-pillow, not very athletic and not very strong in the paint Duke? I think DeJuan Blair already has six rebounds in that game and it hasn't started........

The more I look at Pitt's bracket, the more I think the Panthers will not only get to the Final Four, they will get there without breaking a sweat....

http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/collegesports/default.aspx

As a former resident of the Burgh I am rooting for Pitt against anyone other than the Blue Devils, but that is pretty strong talk in support of a team that has experienced its share of early crack-ups in the tournament in recent years.

[shoutingncu]

DUKE vs louisville (pitino-ketucky) for the championship?

Re: Carolina / Duke

I completely believe this could happen (should Carolina advance that far). I think FSU may be able to upset Pitt, fouling Blair out along the way.

I think that leaves the Final Four open to the winner of the presumed Villanova / Duke match-up (obviously anything can happen along the way, as everyone knows).

If that happens, I would argue that a Duke win is obviously monumental (overacheiving their seed) but a Carolina win would only be as good as their next game.

Ah, too much fun to be had before then...

[dukestheheat]

Hopefully drive at him with players like Nolan and Gerald, or get Singler to pull him from the basket.

Also, don't discount the chance of his picking up offensive fouls, especially if you get refs with an itchy trigger finger.

...the basket! Certainly, Duke will work to get this done and have Blair isolated on guarding Singler. Singler is strong but isn't the physical beast that is Blair (Blair looks like he's about as big as our Samsung refrigerator in the kitchen). Blair would have trouble staying with Singler out on the wings, but on the flip-side, WE would have to keep Singler completely OUT of foul trouble. Losing Singler to fouls versus Pitt would be....devastating.

dth.

[Hancock 4 Duke]

AJ Abrams (quicker than anyone on our team) + Dexter Pittman (larger than anyone on our team)= A VERY Serious Game

You only mentioned two people. That is two versus five. You were right, it is a very serious game. Seriously one sided. I believe Duke could get to the Final Four. Why? Simply, because they are Duke.

[mgtr]

Can't we just park Zoubs in the lane defensively, and let Blair do his best? As long as he stays inside, he is likely to stay out of the worst kind of trouble.

[BlueintheFace]

You only mentioned two people. That is two versus five. You were right, it is a very serious game. Seriously one sided. I believe Duke could get to the Final Four. Why? Simply, because they are Duke.

aaaaaaaand WINNER... for post that best encompasses Duke's problems in the tournament recently. Duke does not win simply because they are Duke.

[Lulu]

Duke plays on Thursday night at 9:30, and if they win, at 8:15 on Saturday night.

UNC plays at 2:40 on Thursday.

Is this confirmed? I scoured the internet and the best I could find was that Duke plays at either 5:45 or 8:15, this was actually on nbc.com I think. I couldn't find it on CBS even though last year I thought I had an early bracket with all the 2nd round game times.

If you have to ask, I need this so I can set my DVR before leaving town and would prefer to not have to record for 6 hours due to fears of running out of space.

[mgtr]

If you have to ask, I need this so I can set my DVR before leaving town and would prefer to not have to record for 6 hours due to fears of running out of space.

It is simple. Get a bigger hard drive for your DVR. Not very difficult, I understand.

[loran16]

AJ Abrams (quicker than anyone on our team) + Dexter Pittman (larger than anyone on our team)= A VERY Serious Game

Abrams is notoriously streaky and is basically their entire team. Pittman being bigger is not exactly a problem...he's nowhere near as good as either the holes or deacs' big guys, and those teams had more threats to go with their big guys.

His size limits him to maybe 30 minutes a game at best, and he's not a rebounding machine or scoring machine.

Texas will live and pose a challenge only if Abrams can get hot and carry them on his shoulders. And we've had a lot of practice dealing with streaky powerful guards.

I don't fear Texas.

[77devil]

Anyone NOT wanting to see FSU a 4th time? If we are lucky enough to get through the first weekend, I'd rather see a Pitt team for the first time that an FSU team that could beat us on any given night...Am I crazy to want Pitt over FSU?

You are not crazy. I think K can very effectively use last year's loss to motivate and there is bulletin board material already as evidenced by the article from the Pittsburgh paper earlier in the thread.

Duke dominated Pitt for a half last year before falling into the same shooting funk that we have witnessed from time to time and had a good last shot to win in regulation before succumbing in overtime. Both teams are better this year. I prefer a shot a Pitt. Frankly, the committee should never have put FSU and Duke in the same region. Clemson or Wake would have been more appropriate.

[A-Tex Devil]

Abrams is notoriously streaky and is basically their entire team. Pittman being bigger is not exactly a problem...he's nowhere near as good as either the holes or deacs' big guys, and those teams had more threats to go with their big guys.

His size limits him to maybe 30 minutes a game at best, and he's not a rebounding machine or scoring machine.

Texas will live and pose a challenge only if Abrams can get hot and carry them on his shoulders. And we've had a lot of practice dealing with streaky powerful guards.

I don't fear Texas.

You obviously didn't watch Texas during the second half of the season. AJ is hardly their "only player" and often they beat good teams where he was their third scoring option. AJ hasn't been the "entire team" or even close since new years.

Dexter Pittman only had 45 points and 30 rebounds in the first 2 Big XII games and received a concussion in the 3rd (this is just recently coming out).

Dexter could EASILY go for 20/20 against us. Easily. Both AJ and Damien James could also drop 20-35 if either is hot no matter how well we are guarding them. Anyone that thinks Texas is a cakewalk should watch the first half of the Kansas game a couple weeks back.

Now I think we should still win if that is who we end up playing. I think that so long as we hound their guards and Dex is their only effective player on offense, we will win. But not much of what you wrote above is true anymore.

Edited to say -- that is the ONLY time I've seen the word "powerful" to describe AJ Abrams. Dude is lucky to be 5'10" 165 pounds.

[pratt '04]

Is this confirmed? I scoured the internet and the best I could find was that Duke plays at either 5:45 or 8:15, this was actually on nbc.com I think. I couldn't find it on CBS even though last year I thought I had an early bracket with all the 2nd round game times.

If you have to ask, I need this so I can set my DVR before leaving town and would prefer to not have to record for 6 hours due to fears of running out of space.

goduke.com (http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&KEY=&SPID=1845&SPSID=22726) says we play at 9:40 PM on Thursday.

[gumbomoop]

Anyone that thinks Texas is a cakewalk should watch the first half of the Kansas game a couple weeks back.

I didn't take loran16's statement - "I don't fear Texas" - as quite suggesting a "cakewalk," but overall I firmly agree with you that Texas has several potentially troublesome players: not just Pittman and Abrams, but James and Johnson. I've seen a bit of Texas this year, and it's a classic case of "which Texas shows up." We should always assume the worst - in this case, that the really impressive Texas [or Minnesota] will show up Sat night - not to fear the worst, but to prepare for it.

Confidence, but not overconfidence, is in order. We got every reason to be confident, none to be overconfident.

[loran16]

You obviously didn't watch Texas during the second half of the season. AJ is hardly their "only player" and often they beat good teams where he was their third scoring option. AJ hasn't been the "entire team" or even close since new years.

Dexter Pittman only had 45 points and 30 rebounds in the first 2 Big XII games and received a concussion in the 3rd (this is just recently coming out).

Dexter could EASILY go for 20/20 against us. Easily. Both AJ and Damien James could also drop 20-35 if either is hot no matter how well we are guarding them. Anyone that thinks Texas is a cakewalk should watch the first half of the Kansas game a couple weeks back.

Now I think we should still win if that is who we end up playing. I think that so long as we hound their guards and Dex is their only effective player on offense, we will win. But not much of what you wrote above is true anymore.

Edited to say -- that is the ONLY time I've seen the word "powerful" to describe AJ Abrams. Dude is lucky to be 5'10" 165 pounds.

On the powerful bit, i just used the word to mean "good" not physical. And i never said Texas was a cakewalk. Maryland's not a cakewalk for example, but i don't fear Duke vs Maryland.

That said, i disagree here. You're placing way too much hype on Pittman's 2 tourny games, the dude has never played more than 30 minutes (usually around 25 at most) which limits his effectiveness (obviously) and has only shown dominance in spurts. Can he be dominant on duke because of lack of size? Maybe. But we've seen far better on the big man front. I mean the dude averages TEN and FIVE and has only gone for double digit boards FIVE TIMES all season. You're way overrating the dude.

Texas reminds me of a weaker wake forest...much less size, and a similar guard strength (Teague being less consistant than Abrams, though Abrams is notoriously streaky). James is solid, but not spectacular, and if Abrams is shut down can't carry the team.

I don't fear Texas. We SHOULD beat them. We have played and beaten better teams. That's all I'm saying.

EDIT: I haven't even looked at Minnesota, but they faded down the big10 stretch after a strong start, and i think texas will thus beat them. I could be wrong though.

[burnspbesq]

I don't expect to see Texas in the second round. If it's a coaching chess match in the last two minutes, do you seriously expect Rick Barnes to out-coach Tubby?

I think Duke will handle Minnesota and Villanova reasonably well. On the other half of the bracket, I have almost convinced myself that FSU will upset Pitt. Pitt doesn't play the kind of defense that we do, so I don't expect FSU's very large and powerful front line to disappear. And I'll take Toney Douglas over Levance Fields every time.

Conventional wisdom says it's virtually impossible to beat a team four times in a season. Conventional wisdom goes out the window. Duke beats FSU to advance to the Final Four, where they meet ... the winner of the most surprising Elite Eight matchup in a number of years, Syracuse vs. Gonzaga.

[Kewlswim]

Hi,

I have no idea which Duke team will show up on any given night (day). However, this is the best the Devils have consistently played heading into March for many a year. The Talking Heads have to create controversy to get people to both tune in and so that they are quoted. There is no reason to believe that the team we will play on Thursday and if we win on Thursday the team we would meet on Saturday will beat Duke if Duke plays as it has been playing.

This is not the case of woofing, this is the case of looking how the last 8 or 9 games have gone. Jon at the point, Elliot and Nolan as off-guards, Lance in the middle (backed up by Zoubs) with Gerald and Kyle in the wings--with Dave and let us not forget Greg leads to a bench of nine serviceable players getting minutes and keeping the team fresh. Players are not as tired as they have looked in March going into recent years.

Last year is not like this year. Sure we can lose on Thursday, any team can lose, but it would be much more of an upset than it would have been to Belmont last year. The Devils were playing horribly last year, they weren't fresh--they didn't have swagger. I feel there is a je ne sais quoi this team has started to play with. I think they need to keep believing they are going to win as much as anything else.

In the last couple of years the Devils lost close games at the end. They did lose a few this year too. However, they also won them at the end. Winning in the ACC tourney against BC the way they did, I think, will pay dividends in the next tournament.

I am soooooooo excited. Let's throw the ball up and let the games begin.

DUKE 2009 ACC Champions

GTHC.

GO DUKE!

[Highlander]

Not to be a downer or anything, but just for a moment think about how differently you might feel today if BC (a #7 seed) had hit a shot at the buzzer to beat us in the opening round of the tournament. We'd be limping into the tourney having lost our last two games, rather than winning 8 of 9. And the difference in that happening and what did happen was a mere two points. Almost all of our recent wins have been close. The difference between success and failure is razor thin these days.

That's what makes this time of year so maddening and fun for me. We have the potential to beat Pitt and make the Final Four, but we could also lay an egg and lose a nail biter to Texas in the second round. And the difference between one or the other could come down to a single play.

If our shots are falling, we can beat anyone in the country with the possible exception of the #1 seeds, and we could knock them off under the right circumstances. We are battle tested and playing with a ton of confidence right now. The FSU game on Sunday was one of our most complete games of the season, which hopefully means we are peaking at the right time.

[gumbomoop]

Not to be a downer or anything, but just for a moment think about how differently you might feel today if BC (a #7 seed) had hit a shot at the buzzer to beat us in the opening round of the tournament. We'd be limping into the tourney having lost our last two games, rather than winning 8 of 9. And the difference in that happening and what did happen was a mere two points. Almost all of our recent wins have been close. The difference between success and failure is razor thin these days.

That's what makes this time of year so maddening and fun for me. We have the potential to beat Pitt and make the Final Four, but we could also lay an egg and lose a nail biter to Texas in the second round. And the difference between one or the other could come down to a single play.

If our shots are falling, we can beat anyone in the country with the possible exception of the #1 seeds, and we could knock them off under the right circumstances. We are battle tested and playing with a ton of confidence right now. The FSU game on Sunday was one of our most complete games of the season, which hopefully means we are peaking at the right time.

I have thought about this very thing, as I've started rewatching our ACC tourney games. You're right about our individual and collective psyches being down, had BC scored that last shot. So, one could say one of two things about that turning point moment: (1) What you said, namely and accurately enough, that play could just as easily have given BC the win; or (2) that play typifies what's been gratifyingly different about Duke in its brutal end-schedule, namely, they know how to win the close ones.

More specifically, and sticking only to that single play as turning point to end-season, Duke won last Fri night because of how far away from the basket Sanders got the ball - why? because Duke played perfect defense in that precise situation - and because, even had Sanders had time to get it to Rice, he couldn't - why? because Duke played perfect defense in that precise situation and Rice was smothered.

You're absolutely right about razor-thinness. Right, too, more positively, about our battle-toughness and confidence. Yet even peaking at the right time doesn't guarantee anything. But I like this analogy: remember that great, great article in NYTimes re Shane? It didn't end on an up note, for Shane did everything right, and still lost that game when Kobe hit a game-winner over him. No guarantees. But what Shane does game in, game out, increases the chances of winning, and that's what K has this team doing right now.

No guarantees, but not just fate and dumb luck, either.

[roywhite]

More specifically, and sticking only to that single play as turning point to end-season, Duke won last Fri night because of how far away from the basket Sanders got the ball - why? because Duke played perfect defense in that precise situation - and because, even had Sanders had time to get it to Rice, he couldn't - why? because Duke played perfect defense in that precise situation and Rice was smothered.

You're absolutely right about razor-thinness. Right, too, more positively, about our battle-toughness and confidence. Yet even peaking at the right time doesn't guarantee anything. But I like this analogy: remember that great, great article in NYTimes re Shane? It didn't end on an up note, for Shane did everything right, and still lost that game when Kobe hit a game-winner over him. No guarantees. But what Shane does game in, game out, increases the chances of winning, and that's what K has this team doing right now.

No guarantees, but not just fate and dumb luck, either.

Excellent points.

One of the key elements of the NCAA tournament is the single elimination format. It is undeniably exciting, but also introduces a fair amount of luck into the outcome. The NBA playoffs, based on 7-game series, is more efficient at identifying the best team.

Wouldn't change the format, and I agree that a defensive stop in a key situation is certainly more than luck.

I'm very happy with where the team is now, and confident that the coaches are doing the best job possible. With fingers crossed, let's go forward!

[COYS]

I have thought about this very thing, as I've started rewatching our ACC tourney games. You're right about our individual and collective psyches being down, had BC scored that last shot. So, one could say one of two things about that turning point moment: (1) What you said, namely and accurately enough, that play could just as easily have given BC the win; or (2) that play typifies what's been gratifyingly different about Duke in its brutal end-schedule, namely, they know how to win the close ones.

More specifically, and sticking only to that single play as turning point to end-season, Duke won last Fri night because of how far away from the basket Sanders got the ball - why? because Duke played perfect defense in that precise situation - and because, even had Sanders had time to get it to Rice, he couldn't - why? because Duke played perfect defense in that precise situation and Rice was smothered.

You're absolutely right about razor-thinness. Right, too, more positively, about our battle-toughness and confidence. Yet even peaking at the right time doesn't guarantee anything. But I like this analogy: remember that great, great article in NYTimes re Shane? It didn't end on an up note, for Shane did everything right, and still lost that game when Kobe hit a game-winner over him. No guarantees. But what Shane does game in, game out, increases the chances of winning, and that's what K has this team doing right now.

No guarantees, but not just fate and dumb luck, either.

Excellent post. The end of the BC game was a great example of how this team can execute in crunch time. G's post move to net the winning basket was a great call by K and the staff (in fact, I'd like to see more of that) and the defense at the end of the game was outstanding (a far cry from the game at Wake). Obviously, Duke could've been unlucky and Sanders could've hit that shot, but it wouldn't have been a problem with execution.

This Duke team has learned, adapted, and matured immensely throughout the course of this season. Success in the post season always rests on a razor's edge. What team out there that won a title recently did it by consistently blowing out every opponent in the tourney? The fact that this team is confident enough to handle those pressure situations with poise and savvy makes me feel very good about our chances.

[bjornolf]

I think that the BC game is a perfect example of how good we could be in the tournament. We have been in several close games this year (we're 4-1 in games decided by 3 points or less, and one of those wins was in overtime), and been behind in the second half and come back several times, and I think that has toughened us beyond any Duke team in recent memory. We don't panic, we fight. Everyone says we're soft. Really? The last thing I'd say about this particular Duke team is that they're soft.

We don't have a lot of talented size right now and we can be inconsistent, but we're NOT soft. How many teams would have packed it in after that Clemson game and the bad run after it? How many would have just chalked it up to another late season collapse? But not this year's team, they turned it around and closed out the season 8-1. I just don't see how this team is soft at all.

[A-Tex Devil]

On the powerful bit, i just used the word to mean "good" not physical. And i never said Texas was a cakewalk. Maryland's not a cakewalk for example, but i don't fear Duke vs Maryland.

That said, i disagree here. You're placing way too much hype on Pittman's 2 tourny games, the dude has never played more than 30 minutes (usually around 25 at most) which limits his effectiveness (obviously) and has only shown dominance in spurts. Can he be dominant on duke because of lack of size? Maybe. But we've seen far better on the big man front. I mean the dude averages TEN and FIVE and has only gone for double digit boards FIVE TIMES all season. You're way overrating the dude.

Texas reminds me of a weaker wake forest...much less size, and a similar guard strength (Teague being less consistant than Abrams, though Abrams is notoriously streaky). James is solid, but not spectacular, and if Abrams is shut down can't carry the team.

I don't fear Texas. We SHOULD beat them. We have played and beaten better teams. That's all I'm saying.

EDIT: I haven't even looked at Minnesota, but they faded down the big10 stretch after a strong start, and i think texas will thus beat them. I could be wrong though.

Fair enough. I actually think we are more or less on same page. I think Duke should win as well. But part of Dexter's issues aren't his fault - it has been the inability of the offense to feed the post which they are putting more emphasis on now. I wouldn't read a lot into his minutes either. If he doesn't get in foul trouble, he'll be playing 30 minutes against MN and, if they win, Duke. Still, I think we should beat them even if he goes of for a 20/20 game, honestly. My main concern is Damien James or AJ going off in conjunction with that. I am less worried about AJ in that we typically can shut down perimeter shooters. I am more concerned if Damien James brings his A game, because we don't have anyone that can guard him if he's on. Lucky for Duke, he hasn't been that great lately.

[SMO]

Everyone says we're soft. Really? The last thing I'd say about this particular Duke team is that they're soft.

I rather enjoy this stereotype. Considering Duke beat FSU, the biggest team in the ACC, 3 times it's hard to see this team as soft. I hope opposing teams buy into it and either expect a soft team and get figuratively punched in the mouth, or come out and try to play overly physical and leave their basketball fundamentals at the door. Either way, advantage: Duke.

[Saratoga2]

I'm calling Minnesota beating Texas.

I love our bracket (this is the first time that I have ever said that). Of all the 2 seeds, we definitely have the easiest route. Should be an awesome first weekend!


I think the road forward includes Binghamton, probably Minnesota who we should beat, Villanova who is a very tough opponent. Villanova is a very experienced and well coached team. We could beat them but it would be a toss up going in.

If our next game is against FSU, I think we have demonstated that we can win that match up.

I think Pitt is more likely to prevail against FSU and would be a very tough matchup for us. They are stong inside with Blair, decent at guard with Fields and very good at forward. I think the trick would be to get Blair into foul trouble and then the matchups are more favorable. Blair took Thabeet to school against UCONN and we have no one who can match this guys raw power. Guard play wins in the NCAAs though and we have at least 4 who can get the job done.

My great 8 are Louisville, WVa, UConn, Missouri, Pitt, Duke, UNC and Syracuse.

[blueprofessor]

I rather enjoy this stereotype. Considering Duke beat FSU, the biggest team in the ACC, 3 times it's hard to see this team as soft. I hope opposing teams buy into it and either expect a soft team and get figuratively punched in the mouth, or come out and try to play overly physical and leave their basketball fundamentals at the door. Either way, advantage: Duke.
Duke is plenty tough,as you wrote, against FSU.
While I like Echefu's and Alabi's height and athleticism,neither one compares to Blair in intensity and strength.
Blair plays like he is fighting for his momma's life.Against us ,he would have the non-recruitment chip.:(
That said, I do believe FSU will play Pitt tight if they meet. FSU is much better than they were 2 months ago when they took Pitt to the wire. In that game, the Noles controlled Pitt's offense.There was little offensive help for Douglas, as Alabi, Kitchen, and Singleton had yet to emerge as offensive contributors. Pitt looks about the same to me--scary ,but beatable.


Best--Blueprof :)

[NSDukeFan]

I love Jon's quote that when he walks into the gym, the other team usually isn't intimidated. Then all he does is beat them.

I also find it funny if anybody is questioning this team's toughness. I know one measure of toughness would be how, no matter how big the opponent is, Kyle seems to grab his share of rebounds in traffic and maybe more against bigger teams. Another sign of toughness might be playing against the top defensive team in the toughest conference and having FOUR turnovers! Another sign of toughness might be getting a great shot inside for the winning points vs. BC and then having a great defensive possession to force a very difficult and unlikely shot.

I have read how some people think Villanova would be a tough match-up for Duke and I think "guards tough for us to match up with? You've got to be kidding me." With Elliot and Nolan, Jon and G guarding the perimeter players, after us having played against Douglas, Rice, Vasquez, Lawson, etc., count me among those who are not particularly afraid of Nova's guards, though I was impressed with their run through the Big East Tourney and their season in general.

Not that I should be thinking beyond Binghamton, who I know nothing about, but figure we match up pretty well with.

I am pumped for Thursday.
Go Duke.

[FerryFor50]

I was leaning toward picking American on an upset, but didn't... They seem well on they're way, though. Good news for Duke! (Provided they get there)

[Duvall]

Inevitably.

[GoingFor#5]

Ugh, man...couldn't hit 3s in the 2nd half, nor get a stop for that matter. I live like half a mile from American so would have loved to see a win.

[InSpades]

'Nova worked for better shots in the 2nd half and used their size and athleticism to overwhelm American. You have to wonder why they didn't do that in the 1st half and instead shot more than half their shots from 3. American just seemed to get tired in the 2nd half and lost their shooting touch. An impressive run again from a lower seeded team but another 2nd half meltdown.

[gotham devil]

'Nova worked for better shots in the 2nd half and used their size and athleticism to overwhelm American. You have to wonder why they didn't do that in the 1st half and instead shot more than half their shots from 3. American just seemed to get tired in the 2nd half and lost their shooting touch. An impressive run again from a lower seeded team but another 2nd half meltdown.

Between playing literally in Philadelphia and the second half foul differential (16 to 0 FTs with two minutes remaining), if this game were involving Duke, there'd be an outcry nationally...and yet another YouTube video.

[loran16]

'Nova worked for better shots in the 2nd half and used their size and athleticism to overwhelm American. You have to wonder why they didn't do that in the 1st half and instead shot more than half their shots from 3. American just seemed to get tired in the 2nd half and lost their shooting touch. An impressive run again from a lower seeded team but another 2nd half meltdown.

I disagree with this assessment. The refs were horrendous in this game in the 2nd half. Suddenly the same defensive touches that were noncalls were fouls against au, and their best player (Garrison Carr) had four fouls with 11 minutes left, which led into nova's run.

Utterly ridiculous officiating. They need to change the rules so that everyone's on a true neutral court. AU got jobbed.

[InSpades]

Jobbed? They lost by 13. Yes they called a lot of fouls, when a much more athletic team is taking the ball to the basket against a smaller less athletic team there's gonna be a lot of fouls. Just look at the Duke-Binghamton game. Is Binghamton getting jobbed? 3 of their guys had 2 fouls w/ like 8 minutes left in the 1st half. They had 5 fouls in 3 minutes.

[loran16]

Jobbed? They lost by 13. Yes they called a lot of fouls, when a much more athletic team is taking the ball to the basket against a smaller less athletic team there's gonna be a lot of fouls. Just look at the Duke-Binghamton game. Is Binghamton getting jobbed? 3 of their guys had 2 fouls w/ like 8 minutes left in the 1st half. They had 5 fouls in 3 minutes.

You misunderstand. I'm fine with such fouls being called. But after the first half where they weren't called at all, the refs suddenly turned around and started calling them at every opportunity.

Meanwhile, the lead was so much at the end was mainly since they could drive with impunity while american started to make stupid decisions in frustration (Gillmore started taking a ton of dumb shots).

This team was totally jobbed...a 13-0 run for nova manufactured entirely by fouls that weren't being called until nova was down 10 at half. Smells awfully fishy to me.

[InSpades]

It seemed to me that 'Nova just didn't attack the basket as much in the 1st half. Which explains why they didn't get the foul calls in the 1st half. In the 2nd half they seemed to abandon the 3 point shot and did everything they could to get the ball inside and penetrate.

[loran16]

It seemed to me that 'Nova just didn't attack the basket as much in the 1st half. Which explains why they didn't get the foul calls in the 1st half. In the 2nd half they seemed to abandon the 3 point shot and did everything they could to get the ball inside and penetrate.

Well i'll agree nova drove more in the 2nd half. But we're arguing here on what was the cause. To me, it seemed that WHEN nova drove in the first half, they often came away empty or had to take midrange jumpers because american's man defense kept on them. There was some contact, but nothing was called.

In the 2nd half, American's man was the same only fouls were called EVERY time on the contact. so naturally nova did the smart thing and kept on driving, since it now worked beautifully.

[blueprofessor]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/20/AR2009032004460.html
The shot that almost went in....:(
Best--Blueprof:)

[MChambers]

Pitt seems to be having some real trouble with a 16 seed that shot 24% for the first half, including 1-13 from downtown. Fascinating for a team that has the #1 ranked offense according to Pomeroy,.

Not that I'm going to think that Pitt will be the first No. 1 to lose to a 16.

[roywhite]

Pitt seems to be having some real trouble with a 16 seed that shot 24% for the first half, including 1-13 from downtown. Fascinating for a team that has the #1 ranked offense according to Pomeroy,.

Not that I'm going to think that Pitt will be the first No. 1 to lose to a 16.

Pitt does not look impressive at all. 26 points and 13 turnovers against a #16 seed in a half??

Fields, the Pitt PG, looks about 25 pounds overweight.

Well, we'll see, but they hardly look dominant today.

[Chard]

Pitt vs. ETSU. This is getting interesting!

[InSpades]

Well ETSU is shooting 42%... oh wait, that's what they are shooting from the FT line! Amazing that a 16 seed can stick w/ a #1 seed w/out shooting the ball well (though I assume Pitt's defense has something to do w/ that).

[yancem]

Very confusing ending from a strategy stand point! Why in the world did FSU, up 1 with 45 seconds left, hold the ball at half court until 8 seconds on the shot clock? You know that Wisconsin is going to get the ball back with a chance to take tie or take the lead, does it really make a difference if they have 12 or 20 seconds? Set up a play and make sure you get a good shot. More importantly, make them play defense.

Then at the end of overtime, Wisconsin scores with a foul to give them a 1 point lead with 2 seconds left. Why in the world would you try to make the free throw? Miss the free throw and make some time (maybe all of it) run before they can either call a timeout or are force to heave a 70 ft shot. With only 2 seconds left odds are that any shot attempt will be a 3 so the extra point won't matter (I know Laettener's shot was a 2 but have you ever seen that before or since?). The extra time to grab the rebound and call a time out virtually ensures that FSU won't get a decent shot. However, giving them the ball out of bounds gives them a chance to set something up.

Poor decision making by both teams down the stretch if you ask me.

[gumbomoop]

Very confusing ending from a strategy stand point! Why in the world did FSU, up 1 with 45 seconds left, hold the ball at half court until 8 seconds on the shot clock? You know that Wisconsin is going to get the ball back with a chance to take tie or take the lead, does it really make a difference if they have 12 or 20 seconds? Set up a play and make sure you get a good shot. More importantly, make them play defense.

Then at the end of overtime, Wisconsin scores with a foul to give them a 1 point lead with 2 seconds left. Why in the world would you try to make the free throw? Miss the free throw and make some time (maybe all of it) run before they can either call a timeout or are force to heave a 70 ft shot. With only 2 seconds left odds are that any shot attempt will be a 3 so the extra point won't matter (I know Laettener's shot was a 2 but have you ever seen that before or since?). The extra time to grab the rebound and call a time out virtually ensures that FSU won't get a decent shot. However, giving them the ball out of bounds gives them a chance to set something up.

Poor decision making by both teams down the stretch if you ask me.

Absolutely agree here. Incompetent end-game clock management is far too common. Every time I see it, I think, smugly, "You don't understand the game."

Well, Dean Smith understood it, and gamed the game to perfection. His teams, and K's and Roy's, are always thinking 2-for-1 when they have the ball with, say 50-55 seconds left in a half. [K routinely calls time-out in last 1:15 of first half to game the game.] They're gonna shoot it with 45 seconds left. And I think those coaches would have instructed the foul shooter to miss with 2 seconds left, for precisely the reason you cite. And in FSU's situation, Dean would have had a timeout, and his inbounder would have got the ball to midcourt with a line-drive pass that would have left 1.6 on the clock......

[GoingFor#5]

Well, Villanova looks like they will be in the Sweet 16. Hopefully we will be there to play them.

[BlueintheFace]

Villanova looks.... Scary.

[JDev]

Villanova looks.... Scary.

Yeah Villanova looked absolutely terrific. They dismantled UCLA. The Duke/Texas winner has their hands full. At least that game won't be in Philly.

[rthomas]

Woohoo! Go X! To all our Xavier friends!

[GoingFor#5]

Xavier looking good!

[Cormac]

My X-Men fell apart at the start of the 2nd half going something like 6 minutes before they scored but they are hanging around. This is one ugly, ugly basketball game.

[slower]

SHOULD have a working margin in this one, but they are missing bunnies at the rim and playing dead from the neck up.

[Duke4Ever32]

SHOULD have a working margin in this one, but they are missing bunnies at the rim and playing dead from the neck up.

Exactly. X is killing me with all of these point blank misses!

[Maxwell1977]

These teams are awful!

[Duvall]

If you like defensive rebounding, this is the game for you!

[Cormac]

If CJ Anderson misses one more layup.... Come on man!! And Dante Jackson just picked up his fourth, X's only quasi-PG. D'oh!

[arydolphin]

This game is exceeding ugly. First team to 55 wins.

[MarkD83]

If you like defensive rebounding, this is the game for you!

Does it count as a rebound if the shot misses everything like most shots in this game?

[Bluedog]

This game is exceeding ugly. First team to 55 wins.

And no Big Ten team is playing! Who woulda thunk?

[Duvall]

Now with double-fisted timeout action!

[CDu]

Blair gets away with a LOT of offensive fouls.

[MarkD83]

I hope they change the rims before the Duke game.

[juise]

That shot by Fields brought back some bad memories.

[CDu]

Just an awful game, but it happens to be close so it looks interesting.

[Duvall]

Great poise by Xavier on that last possession.

[calltheobvious]

Levance Fields is on lucky dude. Not hatin', just sayin'. The Duke shot and the X shot were not even half as likely as Jimmy Dykes's famed 22%-ers.

[CDu]

If Xavier could protect the ball or shoot AT ALL, Pitt would be going home. As it is, it looks like Pitt will be playing on Saturday.

[FireOgilvie]

Ugh. I can't believe Xavier blew this one. I can't stand Pitt.

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

A lot to be proud of but what a frustrating way to lose for Xavier. I was cheering for them the whole way tonight and they almost pulled it out. Missed some layups and that last Pitt three was a back-breaker. Still, no shame in taking a 1 seed to the wire. I'm sure this hurts tonight (esp because it was there for the taking) but tomorrow the team can hold their heads high and start the process of building on this for next season. Watch out for the X-Men in the season(s) to come.

[Cameron]

More than anything, I hate the fact that I have to keep viewing Jamie Dixon's head.

[jipops]

So I'm looking good as one of the few that picked Nova to win this region (which is extremely unfortunate). I do see them taking out a Pitt team that has looked less than impressive that past couple games.

Man I wish we were playing Pitt cause I like that matchup a heck of a lot more than what we faced with Nova.

[CDu]

Man, Villanova just tried to give the Pitt game away. They had this in the bag, up 4 with 20 seconds left. Then, they just pooped the bed. And Reynolds just absolutely bailed them out. Amazing.

[Maxwell1977]

Awesome game, but a horrendously bad last 30 seconds.

[gwwilburn]

I'm glad that now the pundits on the World Wide Leader will stop talking about how great the Panthers are. They are really good, but not quite as good as the media gives them credit for, sort of like the heels. Hopefully, OU and Louisville can win tomorrow. Three of my final four teams will have made it.

[BobbyFan]

Great game. Great Bryce Drew-type play by Nova to take advantage of Pitt's pressure. It's difficult for a defense in the closing seconds of a close game because the first thought is always to not foul.

As bad as our loss was a few nights ago, the loss by Pitt shows that it's not always clear as to which type of loss you'd rather deal with as a fan. Gotta feel for their players.

[Newton_14]

Man, Villanova just tried to give the Pitt game away. They had this in the bag, up 4 with 20 seconds left. Then, they just pooped the bed. And Reynolds just absolutely bailed them out. Amazing.

Agree. I thought Nova messed up when they called the timeout after Blair's bucket cut it to 2. If they would have inbounded immediately they could have snuck a few more seconds off the clock before Pitt could foul.

Calling the TO led to Pitt setting their defense, then the stupid homerun inbounds play and insuing turnover. Reynolds bailed them out big time!

But to be honest I was glad to see it.

[calltheobvious]

Agree. I thought Nova messed up when they called the timeout after Blair's bucket cut it to 2. If they would have inbounded immediately they could have snuck a few more seconds off the clock before Pitt could foul.

Calling the TO led to Pitt setting their defense, then the stupid homerun inbounds play and insuing turnover. Reynolds bailed them out big time!

But to be honest I was glad to see it.

Yeah, I think Jay Wright pretty well **** the bed with that sequence. 1) Bad timeout. 2) Bad play-call. 3) Not preparing his team for the worst by instructing them to eat the turnover rather than give up an unbalanced transition play.

Such a fine line between winning and losing in March. Except not always:(

[Dr. Tina]

I totally didn't understand why Jay Wright called a TO with 10 seconds to go. Pitt had no TO's so they just had to wing it. He let them set up their defense by calling a TO and then look what happened? Silly, but they got out of it thanks to Scottie. I'm not disappointed they won, though.