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Jumbo
03-12-2009, 12:56 AM
Phase V, the ACC Tournament, (hopefully) will last all of three days. But a lot can be accomplished in such a short period of time. Certainly, plenty is at stake. There's seeding -- a trip to the ACC final will all but assure Duke of a #2 seed. And if Duke were to win the ACC Tourney, it would have a great argument for a #1 seed, especially if the team were to beat BC, Wake and UNC in succession. There's also improvement, confidence and momentum on the line. Oh, and then there's the small matter of actually winning an ACC championship, which would mean a ton to this group of kids. So, here's what I'll be pondering as Duke attempts to accomplish that goal.

Just how important is it to reach the championship game?
I think it's extremely important, beyond the trophy/seeding implications. The more this team can play before the tourney, the better. The guys are still adjusting to a new lineup, and there's no better way to get familiar with one another than to play three games in three days. Recall that K also made a commitment to using the bench in last year's ACC Tournament, so it's a chance for guys like Zoubek, McClure and Paulus to fit into this new mix. And if Duke manges to get Nolan Smith back, it becomes even more important to make it to Sunday, as he and the team will need to re-adjust to one another. Speaking of Nolan ...

Will Smith be back, and how will he perform?
I have no idea as to the answer to the first part of the question. Or the second part, for that matter. If he's healthy, though, Duke needs at least 20 minutes from him off the bench every night. I don't think we can count on Elliot Williams to be a consistent 30-minute contributor. It would be nice to get Scheyer and Henderson a bit more rest and to maintain our defensive intensity when we go to the bench. Smith also enables Duke to go small at times, playing four guards around Singler. His return is a key to the season.

And if Nolan Smith does come back, what happens to Paulus?
Based on the way he has been used lately (including not playing in the second half at UNC), you could argue that Paulus might fall out of the rotation completely. At best, I only see him getting spot duty if Smith is back in the lineup. It'll be interesting to see if K has something else in his mind, though.

How strong are Duke's legs?
Last year, we saw two things in the ACC Tourney. 1) K used his bench extensively, as nine players averaged double-figure minutes in Duke's two games. 2) Kyle Singler shot 3-for-13 in two games.
He'd clearly faded by that point, and the team appeared to be tired, too. Hence the move to go to his reserves more.
This year, Duke doesn't appear to be tired down the stretch. Singler has scored 20-plus in three straight games and is averaging 18.8 ppg on .486 shooting over his last eight games. He's not settling for threes, as he has attempted 41 FTs over that span. But he's getting good looks from downtown, hitting 20 of 42 during that stretch. Last year, by contrast, he averaged 15.5 ppg over Duke's last eight regular season games, shot just .421 from the field, made only 17 of 52 threes and attempted just 21 free throws. He's a different player down the stretch this season.
Jon Scheyer, by contrast, has always come alive down the stretch. I detailed his stats in the Phase IV thread wrap-up, but he's playing great, even if his shot remains inconsistent. His legs look fine, even if his ankle might not be.
The one question mark? Maybe G, who has shown a propensity for tiring during games over the course of his career. He's only shooting 37.9% over his last four games. I think he's fine, but it's worth watching.
The other guys look rested enough.

Will Duke come out of the ACCT healthy?
Smith's concussion is obviously a concern, as are Zoubek's nose and the ankles of Scheyer and Thomas. Hopefully, all four players will heal. And hopefully no one else will join them on the injury report. Duke can't afford any late-season injuries this year.

Have other ACC teams learned from, and adjusted to, Duke's new approach?
Boston College hasn't faced the new starting lineup, but they've had plenty of time to prepare. (Same with Virginia.) And should we get past B.C. or UVA, we're likely to see Wake again. That will be a good test of the lineup's staying power, and whether teams have figured out a better way to defend this group (do you play your point guard on Elliot? Trap Scheyer in the backcourt? Extend the defense? Sag off Williams?) and attack at the other end.

Has Duke figured out where the holes in its D have sprung, and how to fix them?
This team isn't playing D anywhere close to the level it established earlier in the season. I don't expect Duke to hold teams below 60 points like they did at the top of their game. But Duke has allowed its opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field in six of the last eight games. The Devils have offset some of that by forcing 15.9 turnovers a night during that span, while only giving up 10.1 per game. But the defense has to improve, and the guys have to stop committing non-shooting fouls -- they're adding up and teams are getting into the bonus too early.

Has Duke used the nine days between the FSU game and the ACCT to work on ... Duke?
This goes beyond just the team's defense. Nine days is an eternity in college basketball, especially with just one game scheduled. That was plenty of time for K to have tinkered. So, will we see a more refined approach? Will Duke unveil some new wrinkles? Who knows?

Is Elliot a consistent force at this point?
We don't know. The longer Duke plays this weekend, the better idea we'll have. It's as simple as that.

What's up with Dave McClure?
Ever since his 13-rebound performance against Miami, he hasn't looked the same. Check out his minutes, rebounds and fouls since that game:
vs. UNC: 21/2/4
at BC: 13/1/3
at SJU: DNP (sick)
vs. Wake: 10/2/0
at MD: 12/2/1
at VT: 23/4/2
vs. FSU: 20/2/5
at UNC: 6/2/1

Quietly, McClure has been in a slump of a different nature. It's hard to notice drop-offs in performance that aren't related to shooting. But McClure, who has been a key cog for Duke this year, hasn't been the same player lately. And I think that's part of the reason why Duke's D hasn't been as good. Is he hurt? Tired? Struggling? Who knows, but Duke needs him to step up.


Is this team as tough as I think?
These guys have shown a lot. They've rebounded from four losses in six games to win five of six. They've adjusted to an ever-changing lineup. They hung tough at UNC on senior day without Nolan Smith and with a couple of gimpy players. And they've shown that they can execute down the stretch, making winning plays down the stretch of close games ... the types of games they've blown the past two seasons. Henderson, Singler and Scheyer have all shown the strength, resolve and skill to come through in the clutch. All of those things equate to toughness. But the ACC Tournament will be a greater test of those qualities. Is Duke up to the task?

As always, there are plenty of other questions -- rebounding (and Zoubek's role), perimeter shooting, foul shooting, etc. -- but there are only so many things you can follow, right? ;) So, let's stick with this list for now and hope that we're celebrating come Sunday night.

ncexnyc
03-12-2009, 02:42 AM
Just how important is it to reach the championship game?

An interesting question. I look at it like this. If you talk about getting to the championship game, then you should also talk about winning it as well. The momentum gained by beating several quality teams would be immense. If Nolan can play, he can hopefully shake off any rust and Coach K can establish a rotation for the NCAA's. I'd also like to see Coach K work on some post plays for Jon.

Will Smith be back, and how will he perform?

I believe Nolan will be back. I think once he gets rid of the rust he will be a very productive player from this point on.

And if Nolan Smith does come back, what happens to Paulus?

I beleive it's fair to say that Greg was given the benifit of the doubt for much of the season, in regards to his less than stellar performance as our sixth man. For much of the season the excuse was that he was out of shape due to the off season injury and then the lingering effect of the bruised arm at the start of the season. I don't believe his game is suited for the sixth man role and it just goes to show how great a player Jon is as he was able to move from various roles and still perform at a very high level. If we get a productive return from Nolan, I don't see Greg much time, unless Elliot cracks under tournament pressure.


How strong are Duke's legs?

Kyle's off season conditioning seems to be paying big dividends this season. I don't think we have to worry about any of the other players as long as we can get balanced scoring from them. I say this because it seems when just one or two players are clicking the offense suddenly gravitates towards them and the pressure of hitting every shot takes it's toll.

Will Duke come out of the ACCT healthy?

There's no way of answering this one. That's probably one of the drawbacks of getting to the championship game, more chances for injuries.

Have other ACC teams learned from, and adjusted to, Duke's new approach?

Here's another question, which we really can't answer until play starts. It's fine to say you can make an adjustment, but do the other teams have the personnel to pull it off? Does Coach K have a counter strategy tucked away in the back of his mind to counter any attempted adjustments?

Has Duke figured out where the holes in its D have sprung, and how to fix them?

Is the D broken? Is what we're seeing a result of the new line-up? You would think that if the D was broken, Coach K would have found a solution to the problem by now. Maybe this is just a trade off.

Has Duke used the nine days between the FSU game and the ACCT to work on ... Duke?

Hopefully Coach K will post-up Jon and take advantage of the size advantage Jon enjoys over the majority of PG's in the league. This will enable Jon to use his smarts around the basket and hopefully once the opposition starts to cheat on defense by sliding over a big, Jon can find our bigs for some easy garbage baskets.

Is Elliot a consistent force at this point?

A very good question. Last Sunday wasn't one of Elliot's best games. Did the pressure of our rivalry game effect him? How will he hold-up in the tournament? His performance this weekend will be very important for this team.

What's up with Dave McClure?

I think Dave is fine. I beleive the focus of the the team has shifted once we made that line-up change.


Is this team as tough as I think?

These kids are indeed TOUGH! They won some hard fought games on the road in front of some extremely hostile fans. For the most part, they've rebounded well despite a lack of size. It seems they enjoy contact and they don't mind getting down and dirty with the competition when they have too.

We've got a solid starting five, if Nolan can contribute some solid productive minutes then anything we get from Brian, Dave and Greg will be gravy.

FireOgilvie
03-12-2009, 03:22 AM
Has Duke figured out where the holes in its D have sprung, and how to fix them?
This team isn't playing D anywhere close to the level it established earlier in the season. I don't expect Duke to hold teams below 60 points like they did at the top of their game. But Duke has allowed its opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field in six of the last eight games. The Devils have offset some of that by forcing 15.9 turnovers a night during that span, while only giving up 10.1 per game. But the defense has to improve, and the guys have to stop committing non-shooting fouls -- they're adding up and teams are getting into the bonus too early.


It's pretty obvious where the holes in the defense are... in the middle. Our guard play on defense has been perfectly fine, but when we switch on every screen, teams take advantage of this over and over again (mostly Singler and Lance). With our current starting lineup, we have no real shot-blocking presence in the middle and our main defensive strategy has been to take charges... This has worked on some occasions, but when teams are shooting above 50 percent on you every game, there is clearly a problem. The other problem, in my opinion, comes in that not only are we not blocking shots, but we're not even ATTEMPTING to alter half of those shots on defense. Our guys have the tendency of just standing there with their arms up trying to take charges... and quite frankly, none of them have the reach/length to change the opponent's shot in that scenario.

It's also no coincidence that Duke's sudden lack of defense coincides with Lance starting over Zoubek and taking the majority of the minutes. This puts Singler in the center position on defense, a position which is hard to defend when you can't foul anyone (if he fouls out early, Duke is toast). Singler is not a shot-blocker/shot-alterer (yeah, I made that term up).

LT brings some important things to the team (the ability to play man-to-man all of the time), but when he's on the floor for the majority of the minutes, we're going to give up really high fg percentages on defense.

FireOgilvie
03-12-2009, 03:52 AM
As an addition to the previous post, I have some interesting stats. In the 9 games since Clemson, Duke has blocked 24 shots (2.67/game... we're averaging 4.0/gm on the season). We have had our shot blocked 34 times over those 9 games. Also, on the season, Duke is 3rd to last in the ACC in blocked shots/game... only ahead of Miami and NC State.

On the flipside... we're 2nd in the conference in steals. That might be an indicator of how Duke plays defense (focus on forcing TOs).

dgoore97
03-12-2009, 09:14 AM
a couple points though.

On Elliot -- I don't expect him to crack. maybe he's nervous, but i haven't seen it reflected in his play after his first game or two in the new role. he makes mistakes, but i think he will be better the more experience he gets.

On G's production/shooting percentage falling off... G is our best player. thing is, other teams have noticed and are focused on stopping him. as a result, Singler and scheyer (also E to some extent) are getting open shots and G's assists are up over this recent span as he learns to find the open guy when the defense collapses on him. i don't think the level of his play has changed, the stats just reflect defenses geared to stop him. if they shift to stop the others, you will see G explode again.

i don't know what to say about the middle. Z adds value by altering shots in the middle on defense, without a doubt, but i think there are so many other deficiencies, foul trouble (Duke is in the penalty early), getting out athleted, it's tough to leave him in there except in select circumstances. I like LT a bit better, and his effort is undeniable, despite his own obvious deficiencies.

best thjign about the lineup change -- Scheyer. he's not going to blow by his guy off the dribble like JWill, Duhon, but (knock on wood) he's not going to turn it over either. as a result he brings a sense of calm and control and maturity to the team that allows G and singler to exploit the athletic and skill advantages they have.

that's my two cents, tho it may be worth less ..

jv001
03-12-2009, 10:06 AM
Good job as always Jumbo..My thoughts:
Importance of reaching the Championship game. I believe it's important to this group of players, but not essential. I think it would help their confidence to actually win the tournament.
Will Nolan be back and what happens to Greg? I say Nolan plays approx. 10-12 mins per game and will be a big help in our rotation. Greg's PT will be determined how just how good he's shooting the ball. He does have experience on his side.
Duke's legs..Kyle, Jon and Gerald (Big 3) are looking fine. Good point on Kyle now not settling for 3's . More FT's for him. Jon is scoring more since he has the ball in his hands more. Gerald I really don't know about. I think he's fine. Other teams are making him kick it out on his drives. He needs for someone (Elliot, Greg or Nolan) to make some of those shots.
Duke Health out of the tournament. I believe so and I pray so. Only God knows.
Have other teams learned about Duke's new approach. I don't think so. Against unc, if we hit open shots in the 2nd half we win.
Has Duke fixed it's Defense? To me this is the biggest question mark. I believe the reason for good fg % against us is because of close in shots taken, rebounding(lack of) and putting the opponents on the foul line so quickly. Can we correct this. I hope so.
Has Duke used the nine day stretch to work on Duke? Probably. I imagine Elliot has shot plenty of free throws and 3's, Maybe Miles stepped it up in practice, maybe a little zone. Who knows with Coack K that's why hes the best.
Is Elliot a consistent force at this point. On defense yes, on offense look at the previous comment.
What's up with Dave? It could be he's nicked up alittle or is his lack of offense affecting his defense. I would say some of both. Maybe the rest has helped him and comes out strong for the stretch run.
Is this team is tough as we think it is. YES..Kyle and Jon are two of the toughtest players to ever wear Duke Blue and White. The entire team needs to take a lesson from these two guys and step up the defense and rebounding. I think they will. Just my opinion on Phase V. Go Duke!

Saratoga2
03-12-2009, 10:15 AM
[QUOTE=Jumbo;270381]

Just how important is it to reach the championship game?
I can see the point about getting more PT together, especially with Nolan, who may add key help in the tourney. I also think they need to test the inside approach with Zoubek being first. I think Lance has not shown much in the defense and rebounding area and David hasn't played as well inside either. Maybe it's time to try Plumlee again and use David to defend a guard or small forward.

Will Smith be back, and how will he perform?
I think that Williams can be used for 30 minutes a game and he brings both defense and a much needed 4th offensive presence. Getting him addition PT in the ACC tourney may give him a better feel as to when to drive and when to pull up for a shot. Smith just needs to get into the flow so he can get back to defense at game speed and see how he can help offensively. He does have an offensive game and if he can get some confidence in it, he could boost our scoring.

And if Nolan Smith does come back, what happens to Paulus?
Paulus is a gritty kid who can contribute in the right situations. Thaat means to me when the opponent has his equivalent limitations. The problem is that Paulus offense seems to be off again, so he becomes a liability when he has to guard a bigger, quicker player. Given the right situation, he can take some minutes and save some legs.

How strong are Duke's legs?
It definitely looked like Henderson got tired in the UNC game. But more than tired, I thought we got into a situation where we had mainly three offensive options, Henderson, Singler and Sheyer. Scheyer deferred to Henderson and Singler, who tried to beat their men one on one, with a lot of tries to go to the bucket. When they were double teamed, we turned the ball over and became inefficient. It didn't help that Singler went cold from outside at the same time.

My view is we can't become so predictable with our offensive game or teams will defend us in a similar manner. Williams, Scheyer and Smith will have to give us diversity of scoring if we are to really succeed against the better teams.


Will Duke come out of the ACCT healthy?
Hope so!

Have other ACC teams learned from, and adjusted to, Duke's new approach?
Teams will try other things, however, UNC's approach on Henderson and Singler worked in the second half. With 4 scoring options on the floor together, we are much harder to shutdown and so far nothing has totally stopped us offensively.

Has Duke figured out where the holes in its D have sprung, and how to fix them?
Others have pointed out that the chief issue for our defense is that its switching nature, which can frequently put Singler, Zoubek or Thomas on a guard. Zoubek's size is a big help (no pun intended) if he doesn't have to move to much, however the interior defense and rebounding have been below par. I don't see coach K changing his approach, so the only thing he can do is allow more PT in one direction or another. Zoubek at C makes sense with Thomas and Plumlee possible subs. I would use MCClure outside as an on the ball defender or a short time sub for Singler.

Has Duke used the nine days between the FSU game and the ACCT to work on ... Duke?
I don't think so, although maybe a little more zone proficiency or full court pressure could be tried.

Is Elliot a consistent force at this point?
I think he can be and will provide a 4th offensive threat to go along with his defense and also rebounding, which might be forgotten.

What's up with Dave McClure?
Clearly McClure's performance has been off. He offers little or no offensive addition to the team so my view is he is a solid sub and on ball defender against the bigger guards we will face. I would rather see some size inside, even though that size is of only average ability.


Is this team as tough as I think?
Tough is one way to describe it, mature is another. Scheyer shows the maturity to take what is given to him and not to force unless the shot clock is running out. He also avoids silly fouls. While outstanding individual talents, Henderson and Singler have yet to reach that level of maturity and will attempt to force their shot, when it is not there. There is a fine line between being aggressive and forcing and it is one that a player only finds after repeatedly attempting something and finding out what works. Williams has the tools to score as well. He is of course, far behind the others in his playing experience and his shot definitely needs work. Smith is probably a little ahead of Williams but has been inactive, so needs to step back in. McClure also has that maturity and experience to give us good minutes. Inside, we have experience, but it hasn't been expressed as the ability to perform well. Is this team tough? I think it has some maturity and heart, but is a far cry from being able to dominate.

QUOTE]


I wrote my comments under Jumbo's headings. Our lack of shot blocking, limited rebounding ability from our inside players, and tendency to pick up fouls at a rapid rate inside, are our chief weaknesses. Lance in particular can't seem to keep himself from reaching in. Zoubek can't stay with a guard outside without bumping him and Plumlee is perhaps trying to hard to please and winds up fouling at a very high rate. Maybe coach K can devise something where Zoubek plays defense closer to the basket.

feldspar
03-12-2009, 10:23 AM
Just how important is it to reach the championship game?
I think it's extremely important, beyond the trophy/seeding implications. The more this team can play before the tourney, the better. The guys are still adjusting to a new lineup, and there's no better way to get familiar with one another than to play three games in three days. Recall that K also made a commitment to using the bench in last year's ACC Tournament, so it's a chance for guys like Zoubek, McClure and Paulus to fit into this new mix. And if Duke manges to get Nolan Smith back, it becomes even more important to make it to Sunday, as he and the team will need to re-adjust to one another.

IMO, it’s extremely important. Consider for a moment that, with the exception of Greg Paulus and Dave McClure, this team doesn’t know what it means to play on Sunday of the ACC Tournament, let alone win a post-season tournament. Getting to Sunday is not just important for this year, but for the overall development of our guys moving up.


Will Smith be back, and how will he perform?
I have no idea as to the answer to the first part of the question. Or the second part, for that matter. If he's healthy, though, Duke needs at least 20 minutes from him off the bench every night. I don't think we can count on Elliot Williams to be a consistent 30-minute contributor. It would be nice to get Scheyer and Henderson a bit more rest and to maintain our defensive intensity when we go to the bench. Smith also enables Duke to go small at times, playing four guards around Singler. His return is a key to the season.

I have a feeling Nolan is going to be eased back in relatively slowly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see only 5 to 7 minutes out of him on Friday night, with those numbers increasing as we (hopefully) advance through the ACC tournament. At Carolina, we showed that we can manage okay without him, but having him back is going to be key in getting our guys some rest, as you point out.


And if Nolan Smith does come back, what happens to Paulus?
Based on the way he has been used lately (including not playing in the second half at UNC), you could argue that Paulus might fall out of the rotation completely. At best, I only see him getting spot duty if Smith is back in the lineup. It'll be interesting to see if K has something else in his mind, though.

I don’t see Paulus falling out of the rotation at all. He is an excellent spark off the bench, especially from 3-point range. With defenses having to pay so much attention to Henderson and Scheyer, Greg does a great job of getting open and getting good looks from long range. Yes, his minutes will go down, but even with Nolan, Greg is a big piece of our offense.


How strong are Duke's legs?
Last year, we saw two things in the ACC Tourney. 1) K used his bench extensively, as nine players averaged double-figure minutes in Duke's two games. 2) Kyle Singler shot 3-for-13 in two games.
He'd clearly faded by that point, and the team appeared to be tired, too. Hence the move to go to his reserves more.
This year, Duke doesn't appear to be tired down the stretch. Singler has scored 20-plus in three straight games and is averaging 18.8 ppg on .486 shooting over his last eight games. He's not settling for threes, as he has attempted 41 FTs over that span. But he's getting good looks from downtown, hitting 20 of 42 during that stretch. Last year, by contrast, he averaged 15.5 ppg over Duke's last eight regular season games, shot just .421 from the field, made only 17 of 52 threes and attempted just 21 free throws. He's a different player down the stretch this season.
Jon Scheyer, by contrast, has always come alive down the stretch. I detailed his stats in the Phase IV thread wrap-up, but he's playing great, even if his shot remains inconsistent. His legs look fine, even if his ankle might not be.
The one question mark? Maybe G, who has shown a propensity for tiring during games over the course of his career. He's only shooting 37.9% over his last four games. I think he's fine, but it's worth watching.
The other guys look rested enough.

I’m gonna go with Al Featherston on this one. I’m not going to spend so much time worrying about Duke’s “legs” this year, except for the fact that, if we make it to Sunday, fatigue can realistically be a factor. That’s why it’s important to get Nolan back, to get quality minutes out of Greg and Zoubek and Dave McClure.


Will Duke come out of the ACCT healthy?
Smith's concussion is obviously a concern, as are Zoubek's nose and the ankles of Scheyer and Thomas. Hopefully, all four players will heal. And hopefully no one else will join them on the injury report. Duke can't afford any late-season injuries this year.

We’ll have to wait and see. I’m optimistic, though, after watching Sunday’s game. Four days is a decent period of rest in college basketball and I’m sure getting these guys healthy has been a priority with the coaching staff.


Have other ACC teams learned from, and adjusted to, Duke's new approach?
Boston College hasn't faced the new starting lineup, but they've had plenty of time to prepare. (Same with Virginia.) And should we get past B.C. or UVA, we're likely to see Wake again. That will be a good test of the lineup's staying power, and whether teams have figured out a better way to defend this group (do you play your point guard on Elliot? Trap Scheyer in the backcourt? Extend the defense? Sag off Williams?) and attack at the other end.

This new wrinkle is what has me most excited this year as opposed to previous years. I can’t remember the last time we had this much of a shakeup in the lineup this late in the year. 2001, perhaps?

It usually takes teams the whole season to adjust to another teams’ style and composition, so I have a good feeling that we’re going to get great mileage out of the new lineup.


Has Duke figured out where the holes in its D have sprung, and how to fix them?
This team isn't playing D anywhere close to the level it established earlier in the season. I don't expect Duke to hold teams below 60 points like they did at the top of their game. But Duke has allowed its opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field in six of the last eight games. The Devils have offset some of that by forcing 15.9 turnovers a night during that span, while only giving up 10.1 per game. But the defense has to improve, and the guys have to stop committing non-shooting fouls -- they're adding up and teams are getting into the bonus too early.

This is my #1 concern. When you change the lineup, you change the dynamics of the defense, and it’s been a concern.

I saw it last year during the last stretch of the ACC season and parts of the ACC tournament, a lack of focus when it comes to defense. It came back against Georgia Tech in the quarterfinals, but then against Clemson we lost some of it again. Ditto with the NCAA Tournament. In the first halves of both games, our defense was your proto-typical “Duke D,” but broke down in the second half.

We can’t afford to be schizophrenic on the defensive end. I’m hoping to see a commitment to defense and more communication so we’re not losing guys on switches as I see so often.


Has Duke used the nine days between the FSU game and the ACCT to work on ... Duke?
This goes beyond just the team's defense. Nine days is an eternity in college basketball, especially with just one game scheduled. That was plenty of time for K to have tinkered. So, will we see a more refined approach? Will Duke unveil some new wrinkles? Who knows?

You pretty much summed it up with “who knows?”

I’d love to see what we’ve been doing, just more refined and more intense. I guess that’s the word I’d use. Intense. I want 40 minutes of passionate, hard-nosed defense. I want to see lots of perimeter passing. I want to see penetrate-and-pass. I want to see these guys EXECUTE.


Is Elliot a consistent force at this point?
We don't know. The longer Duke plays this weekend, the better idea we'll have. It's as simple as that.

Well, we do know that his confidence is only growing with each game. And that can only be a good thing for a freshman. Before Elliot’s emergence, I had trouble seeing this team as an Elite Eight team. Now I can see us as a Final Four team, but only if he continues to improve and do what he’s been doing well—playing defense, moving without the ball to get open looks and driving when the hole opens up.


What's up with Dave McClure?
Ever since his 13-rebound performance against Miami, he hasn't looked the same. Check out his minutes, rebounds and fouls since that game:
vs. UNC: 21/2/4
at BC: 13/1/3
at SJU: DNP (sick)
vs. Wake: 10/2/0
at MD: 12/2/1
at VT: 23/4/2
vs. FSU: 20/2/5
at UNC: 6/2/1

Quietly, McClure has been in a slump of a different nature. It's hard to notice drop-offs in performance that aren't related to shooting. But McClure, who has been a key cog for Duke this year, hasn't been the same player lately. And I think that's part of the reason why Duke's D hasn't been as good. Is he hurt? Tired? Struggling? Who knows, but Duke needs him to step up.

??

Who knows, but we need him. He is the glue on defense.


Is this team as tough as I think?
These guys have shown a lot. They've rebounded from four losses in six games to win five of six. They've adjusted to an ever-changing lineup. They hung tough at UNC on senior day without Nolan Smith and with a couple of gimpy players. And they've shown that they can execute down the stretch, making winning plays down the stretch of close games ... the types of games they've blown the past two seasons. Henderson, Singler and Scheyer have all shown the strength, resolve and skill to come through in the clutch. All of those things equate to toughness. But the ACC Tournament will be a greater test of those qualities. Is Duke up to the task?

Tough? Yes, I think so. You can’t play against teams like Virginia Tech, Clemson, Carolina and Wake Forest and not learn how to be tough.
I’m more worried about mental toughness. Again, with the exception of Paulus and McClure, these guys don’t have a frame of reference for playing in a post-season championship game. It’s foreign to them. So dealing with that and maturing very quickly in a short period of time is going to be key.

In short, this weekend is going to be very telling in terms of what type of Duke team we have right now.

_Gary
03-12-2009, 10:34 AM
As one who in the past has not hesitated to call attention to what I felt was "tired legs" I feel it only right to say with joy that I have zero concerns about that this year. The team just doesn't look tired to me at all and I will be shocked if that's an issue going forward. In years past I feel like it's always been something I could see coming in mid to late February, and I see no indications of it this year. I believe our guys are good to go as far as that is concerned, for whatever it's worth.

I really believe one of the biggest, if not the biggest, portion of the equation at this point is how Nolan returns. If he can truly knock the rust off in the ACC tournament and enter the NCAA's at close to full strength/continuity then I feel we can really make a run. The only thing left that I'm at all concerned with at this point is simply outside shooting. Our size and lineup still force us to rely on that aspect of the game more than I'd like, but it just is what it is. If we hit a game where for some reason everyone or most everyone goes cold we'll have major trouble. But as long as all the primary players are at least hitting their general percentages from long range I feel we can beat anyone. We just can't have Jon and Kyle, for instance, both go stone cold from outside in a game and expect to beat a good team. So fingers crossed we don't have a cold shooting night. Other than that, I feel everything else is about as good as it can be with this group.

Gary

trinity92
03-12-2009, 11:13 AM
I was going to start a thread on how crucial it is for this group to play 3 games in the ACC tourney, but knew Jumbo's phase V was on its way, and decided to wait to see if and how this was addressed.

This team, more than any I remember, is a work in progress, primarily due to our using three different starting point guards and three starting centers. This isn't any surprise, since we came into the year knowing that our PG and C positions were in flux. Since moving Scheyer to the point, inserting EW into the starting lineup and losing Nolan in the rotation, we've played quite well, but we need more time to get solid with this new lineup, and really need to get Nolan healthy.

I honestly think all the other points Jumbo addressed will follow from whether we get to the ACC championship game. We need the games to get more comfortable with our personnel on the floor. This is strange to write, but I don't really care if we beat UNC in the championship--we absolutely must get there.

I've never felt this strongly about needing to play more games, or the possible repercussions if we fail to do so. I would go so far as to say we exit the tourney in the sweet 16 or earlier if we don't make the ACC championship, but make the Final 4 or lose a very close regional final if we do.

bird
03-12-2009, 12:14 PM
Subjectively I feel that Duke finished the regular season better than in past seasons. The gross w/l record provides only partial support, but upon a closer I think is is clear we finished better this year than the last three:

2008-9 - 4-1 in last five games, 6-4 last ten
2007-8 - 4-1 in last five games, 7-3 last ten
2006-7 - 3-2 in last five games, 4-6 last ten
2005-6 - 3-2 in last five games, 8-2 last ten

We finished both the 2005-6 and 2006-7 seasons with two losses. Clearly we finished better in 2008-9 than those two years.

In 2007-08, true, we had a really good win in the last ten games, at UNC, but that was on 2/6 and subjectively it is clear that was our peak game. In the remaining nine, the six wins included four against weaker teams (VA, Ga. Tech, NC State and St. John's) or at home (BC, MD) and we lost our three top challenges after 2/6 (at Wake, at Miami, home UNC). In contrast, we won some good games in the stretch in 2008-09, including Wake, at Va. Tech, at MD, home against FSU, in the last five. I refuse to be discouraged about the closing loss to UNC; I'll take K's word for it - the team played well.

I am feeling good about this team and where it is positioned right now.

Gooch
03-12-2009, 01:04 PM
Subjectively I feel that Duke finished the regular season better than in past seasons...

...I am feeling good about this team and where it is positioned right now.

I definitely agree with you here. Feels like with the line-up change and some gritty, tough-it-out wins in the last few games, we are still on an upward trajectory toward our peak.

And related to another of Jumbo's points, it seemed like in past years other teams had figured out how to stop us and we didn't have the horsepower to overcome a focused defense against our limited offensive options. Now we seem more flexible on offense and teams don't have as much proverbial tape to review with this lineup.

I didn't feel all that bad after the Carolina loss, and I certainly didn't feel like we had yet seen the best of what could be for this team.

And w/r/t the time away from the court...I think it is good for our guys, but I can't stand it! The anticipation of the ACCT and NCAAs is killing me!

tele
03-12-2009, 10:23 PM
I found this from Coach Knight: Players have to learn what I call "intelligent patience" I see that go away when teams forget to get the ball into the low post. Players don't look for the postman the way they used to. Billy, you made a comment that is one of the most important comments on offensive basketball, "Get the ball into the post and you are going to have cutting opportunities, you are going to have guys open on the perimeter and the post man with the quick fake and a little move is going to get fouled and that is a huge key." When we got a lead and were at the point in the game where I thought the only way we could lose was to beat ourselves I would move the whole offense up and it gave the post man the whole lane to work in. I didn't want anyone thinking about a shot unless it was a layup or a post feed for the first 20 seconds of the shot clock. It got the other team to be more anxious a little more inclined to commit a foul.

I'd like to see the ball go into the post some on offense too. Go Duke!

Jumbo
03-16-2009, 01:18 AM
Hmmmm, that went quickly. And quite well! Might as well look back at my thoughts before looking ahead to Phase VI.

"Just how important is it to reach the championship game?"
I believe everything I wrote before the ACC Tourney. So, I might as well repeat it! "I think it's extremely important, beyond the trophy/seeding implications. The more this team can play before the tourney, the better. The guys are still adjusting to a new lineup, and there's no better way to get familiar with one another than to play three games in three days. Recall that K also made a commitment to using the bench in last year's ACC Tournament, so it's a chance for guys like Zoubek, McClure and Paulus to fit into this new mix. And if Duke manges to get Nolan Smith back, it becomes even more important to make it to Sunday, as he and the team will need to re-adjust to one another. Speaking of Nolan ..."
Oh, and I'll add that winning the whole thing is just a wonderful, wonderful thing. It matters. And it only adds to a confidence level that seems to grow by the week.

"Will Smith be back, and how will he perform?"
The answers: Yes, and at a fantastic level. Folks, for all the talk about Elliot Williams' contributions and the lineup change, Nolan Smith is Duke's fourth best player. He can shoot. He can drive. He can defend. And he responded wonderfully in his return to the court. He reminded me of someone, and I couldn't quite place it -- maybe a freshman Will Avery. But it's like Nolan used his time off to start fresh and now is playing with tons of confidence, energy and talent. It makes a huge difference having him back.

"And if Nolan Smith does come back, what happens to Paulus?"
As I expected, he's basically out of the rotation. That said, Maryland presented a good matchup for him, and he responded by playing well. It's so strange to see his career end with so much time on the bench, but let's hope he stays ready and can contribute if called up during the NCAA Tourney.

"How strong are Duke's legs?"
Looked pretty darn strong to me. The team shot very well against FSU, playing its third game in three days. Maybe Singler struggled to finish at the end, but then again, he didn't sit at all in any of the games. Scheyer is getting stronger as the year goes on. Everyone looks fresh and ready to go.

"Will Duke come out of the ACCT healthy?"
Seems that way. Yay!

"Have other ACC teams learned from, and adjusted to, Duke's new approach?"
Yes. In fact, Duke's starting lineup did not play well as a group, posting negative plus/minus numbers. Maryland played off Elliot Williams. Florida State attacked in the past. But Duke countered too. We went for offense with Nolan Smith over Elliot for big minutes. We used McClure more. When Alabi was causing problems early, Zoubek took care of things. So it's great to see Duke adjust to adjustments.

"Has Duke figured out where the holes in its D have sprung, and how to fix them?"
Yes! And this might be the best development from the Tourney, because it was unexpected. I thought the D could improve, but not reach the level we saw. After allowing 6 of our previous 8 opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field and holding only three of the previous 10 below 70 points, these were the scoring stats for the ACC Tourney opponents:
BC: 65 points, .383 FG%
MD: 61 points, .397 FG%
FSU: 69 points, .469 FG% (and a lot of that scoring came after the outcome was decided -- Duke allowed 21 points on 21.7% shooting in the first half, and FSU had 53 points with 2:29 left and 58 with 1:40 left. Fouling and uncontested layups skewed the numbers.)

That's awesome. Look, none of these teams had a major post scoring presence. That's still something that might be a problem. But Duke's defense was darn good, and against FSU (a super-tall team, no less), we finally finished good defensive sequences by grabbing rebounds. This is a huge development.

"Has Duke used the nine days between the FSU game and the ACCT to work on ... Duke?"
It sure looked that way. The improvement was visible, even if the BC game was really stop-and-start and the Maryland win wasn't pretty, either. When Duke got up 20-plus on FSU, you could see just how well these guys can play, how much the chemistry has grown and how talented this team really is.

"Is Elliot a consistent force at this point?"
No. Not yet. He should stay in the starting lineup. In any given game, he might break out with a big performance and, at the very least, he'll pressure the ball, cut to the hoop and get us a couple of junk baskets off put-backs. But we can't expect him to give us 30 minutes and 10 points a night. And that's fine, because Nolan Smith is back.

"What's up with Dave McClure?"
Let's just say I'm no longer worried about anything I wrote before. Dave was fantastic in the ACC Tourney.

"Is this team as tough as I think?"
Yes. A thousand times, yes.

"As always, there are plenty of other questions -- rebounding (and Zoubek's role), perimeter shooting, foul shooting, etc. -- but there are only so many things you can follow, right? ;) So, let's stick with this list for now and hope that we're celebrating come Sunday night."
And we are! Awesome.

BlueintheFace
03-16-2009, 01:35 AM
Nolan Smith comes back.... Duke's Defense gets much better. Coincidence? I think not.

COYS
03-16-2009, 01:35 AM
Hmmmm, that went quickly. And quite well! Might as well look back at my thoughts before looking ahead to Phase VI.



"Is Elliot a consistent force at this point?"
No. Not yet. He should stay in the starting lineup. In any given game, he might break out with a big performance and, at the very least, he'll pressure the ball, cut to the hoop and get us a couple of junk baskets off put-backs. But we can't expect him to give us 30 minutes and 10 points a night. And that's fine, because Nolan Smith is back.

And what a joy it is to see Nolan back and playing well! I certainly hope he cuts his fouls and continues his strong play into the tourney. With Scheyer, Henderson, Smith, and Williams in the rotation, we've got deep, talented guard play that can match anyone in the country . . . and that's not counting the experienced senior who is sitting on the bench and fully capable of playing solid minutes. I'd love to see a few put-backs apiece from Thomas and Zoubs to round out our offense as I think those can be the difference against some of the talented teams in the tourney, but with Nolan playing well, we've got even more interchangeable parts and a much needed true scoring threat off the bench.

FireOgilvie
03-16-2009, 01:42 AM
As an addition to the previous post, I have some interesting stats. In the 9 games since Clemson, Duke has blocked 24 shots (2.67/game... we're averaging 4.0/gm on the season). We have had our shot blocked 34 times over those 9 games. Also, on the season, Duke is 3rd to last in the ACC in blocked shots/game... only ahead of Miami and NC State.

On the flipside... we're 2nd in the conference in steals. That might be an indicator of how Duke plays defense (focus on forcing TOs).

I want to make note of what I said before the ACC Tournament started and really shine a light on what Duke did over those games. As I noted previously, Duke's interior defense was ineffective because we weren't contesting/altering/blocking shots and our opponents were shooting very high fg percentages (we were also attempting to take charges instead of contesting shots). Well, that all changed during the ACC Tournament. We attacked nearly every interior shot and ended up blocking 15 shots over 3 games. Kyle Singler had a career high 6 blocks against BC. I previously mentioned that he "wasn't a shot-blocker." Maybe he took notice of that. He had 9 blocks in 3 games... for comparison, he had 9 blocks over the last 9 games of the regular season. Great job guys! Keep up the intensity!

COYS
03-16-2009, 01:48 AM
I want to make note of what I said before the ACC Tournament started and really shine a light on what Duke did over those games. As I noted previously, Duke's interior defense was ineffective because we weren't contesting/altering/blocking shots and our opponents were shooting very high fg percentages (we were also attempting to take charges instead of contesting shots). Well, that all changed during the ACC Tournament. We attacked nearly every interior shot and ended up blocking 15 shots over 3 games. Kyle Singler had a career high 6 blocks against BC. I previously mentioned that he "wasn't a shot-blocker." Maybe he took notice of that. He had 9 blocks in 3 games... for comparison, he had 9 blocks over the last 9 games of the regular season. Great job guys! Keep up the intensity!

The block opportunities seemed to be the result of faster rotation from the help side, as well. In general, our movement on D was far crisper than it was in February/first part of March. We forced opposing players to jump sideways or move around help defenders rather than going straight for the rim, giving guys like Kyle and G better angles to approach blocking/further-altering the opponent's shot. Our interior defense rests on our guards ability to prevent easy entry passes into the post and our help defenders being ready. If we move as well as a unit on defense in the NCAAT as we did in the ACCT, only good things will happen.

jv001
03-16-2009, 10:07 AM
Well we not only made the championship game, we WON IT!
This team got back to playing Duke Defense. It began with Kyle Singler blocking shots like Kareem. Good on the ball defense from Nolan and Elliot.
Nolan Smith is indeed back. He came back stronger than I thought he could. Without him we don't win the tournament. Dave McClure let his play speak for him. Guess if he was injured, he's recovered. Elliot just needs to hit a couple of open shots early to get his confidence up. He'll be ok, but we're a better team now, because we have Nolan for 30+ mins if needed. Toughness of the team. I knew they were tough, but they are tougher than I thought. We'll need this toughness in our march to the FF. Go Duke!

davekay1971
03-16-2009, 10:17 AM
The return of Nolan, and the form he's come back in, is just awesome to watch. He's been great. He adds so much to our defense, and can really light a spark on offense. I was amazed by a couple of his drives to the basket. I hope, now that he's back, Scheyer stays primarily on point (10 turnovers in 9 games, are you kidding?), but we're so much better rotating Williams and Smith in the backcourt with him.

Also, props to Zoubs. What he did coming in against Alabi was great. It shows that, given the right matchup, Zoubs can be a huge contributor to this team. We'll need him.

OldSchool
03-16-2009, 02:02 PM
"Will Smith be back, and how will he perform?"
The answers: Yes, and at a fantastic level. Folks, for all the talk about Elliot Williams' contributions and the lineup change, Nolan Smith is Duke's fourth best player. He can shoot. He can drive. He can defend. And he responded wonderfully in his return to the court. He reminded me of someone, and I couldn't quite place it -- maybe a freshman Will Avery. But it's like Nolan used his time off to start fresh and now is playing with tons of confidence, energy and talent. It makes a huge difference having him back.

No doubt most people were excited by Nolan's athletic drive down the lane and dunk, but to me the most encouraging play was that laser pass he made to Gerald cutting under the basket.

That play showed good court vision, an understanding of team (or at least a teammate's) movement and the ability to immediately seize a momentary opportunity, which are crucial skills one looks for in a point guard.

I don't see Nolan ever developing into a Lawson-style point whose characteristic move is a mad sprint to the rim after which he angles it off the glass or dumps it off to a lurking big man, but Nolan can use his quickness to beat his man off the dribble or around a screen, and then he needs to be able to make the smart play to exploit the momentary advantage created.

If Brian has a healthy summer and makes a big step forward, as I believe he is capable of doing, then next year I would love to see Nolan and Brian try to develop effective plays using the high post pick and roll.

Mal
03-16-2009, 02:37 PM
On the subject of Kyle blocking 9 shots in 3 games, it seemed to me that a lot, if not all, of those blocks came either in transition or on help rotation. As someone else noted, we seemed to block a number of shots this weekend when driving players were forced to alter their path to the bucket or didn't elevate well because of a defender stepping in front of them, allowing a shot blocker to slice down the lane and get it.

The point being, these are hustle blocks, not longer arms or Shelden-style perfect timing blocks. Singler doesn't get the blocks he's gotten recently without having some energy. How many times late in the season last year did we see Kyle late getting down the court or into position and fouling on the same plays? Right now, he's busting down the floor and recovering quickly. I think his blocks are a direct result of his fitness regime more than anything else. Certainly a positive sign.

Rudy
03-16-2009, 02:56 PM
On the subject of Kyle blocking 9 shots in 3 games, it seemed to me that a lot, if not all, of those blocks came either in transition or on help rotation.. . . .these are hustle blocks, not longer arms or Shelden-style perfect timing blocks. Singler doesn't get the blocks he's gotten recently without having some energy. How many times late in the season last year did we see Kyle late getting down the court or into position and fouling on the same plays? Right now, he's busting down the floor and recovering quickly. I think his blocks are a direct result of his fitness regime more than anything else.
Kyle was a beast defensively. The box scores have him playing 40 min a game all three games. His shot came and went, like all shooters, particularly in a football stadium. He looked pretty fresh to me.