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pfrduke
03-10-2009, 02:09 PM
Cincinnati, which was only barely clinging to bubble hopes anyway, has been officially pushed off, losing to Depaul (that's 0-18 in the Big East regular season Depaul) in the first round of the (five-round!) Big East tourney. Bye bye.

Davidson is likely on life support after losing in the semis to Charleston. Their best win is over W.Va, but otherwise, all they showed this year is that they a) have Stephen Curry and b) can play and lose to better teams.

St. Mary's is an interesting case - only 6 losses, several of which came without star Patty Mills, but extremely lacking in quality wins, and getting pasted by the Zags in last night's WCC title game. They have to be sweating.

burns15
03-10-2009, 02:19 PM
Lunardi has St. Mary's in the first four out category in the his most recent Bracketology (updated today).

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

pfrduke
03-10-2009, 04:42 PM
And a hearty vaya con dios to Georgetown, which just fell to St. John's. They would have needed to at least reach Friday to have a good shot. The new opening round of the BET has been killing those teams that were hanging on to the bubble by their finger tips.

Faustus
03-10-2009, 04:46 PM
Already.
As Seinfeld used to say,
"Oh, that's a shame."

Bluedog
03-10-2009, 04:58 PM
Cincinnati, which was only barely clinging to bubble hopes anyway, has been officially pushed off, losing to Depaul (that's 0-18 in the Big East regular season Depaul) in the first round of the (five-round!) Big East tourney. Bye bye.

Davidson is likely on life support after losing in the semis to Charleston. Their best win is over W.Va, but otherwise, all they showed this year is that they a) have Stephen Curry and b) can play and lose to better teams.

St. Mary's is an interesting case - only 6 losses, several of which came without star Patty Mills, but extremely lacking in quality wins, and getting pasted by the Zags in last night's WCC title game. They have to be sweating.

Congratulations to DePaul on their first Big East victory! Woot woot. I had wanted to go to some games, but they are ridiculously expensive for such a terrible team. Now we'll see if Rutgers can complete the bubble popping of Big East teams with a victory over ND tonight (although I gotta cheer for ND).

I really don't think St. Mary's deserves an at-large bid. RPI 46, SOS 145. Their best wins are vs. SD St (44), Utah St (27), and Providence (71). Worst losses are Santa Clara (193), Portland (118), and UTEP (79). Three top 100 RPI wins all season just isn't enough, IMO. Georgetown has SEVEN rpi top 100 wins, for comparison. I tend to look at best wins as more significant than worst losses. We all know the bubble teams can lose to teams, the question is who can they beat....

hurleyfor3
03-10-2009, 05:06 PM
Is it me, or are an extraordinary number of bubble teams this year rolling over in games they need to win? And not tough games, but stuff like Cincy/DePaul. This has to be good news for the higher/more consistent bubble teams such as BC, UMiami and Providence. Florida might even be back in.

pamtar
03-10-2009, 09:14 PM
Lunardi has St. Mary's in the first four out category in the his most recent Bracketology (updated today).

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Our bracket in this scenario makes me drool. We should be able to easily get by Mich St. However, Pitt would be tough. Still, its more doable than UCon or UNC.

pfrduke
03-10-2009, 11:09 PM
Cleveland State just stole a bid from a bubble team.

As an aside, I'd take any of Lunardi's "last four out" teams in a single game against any of his "last four in" teams.

jimsumner
03-10-2009, 11:10 PM
Bad news for bubble teams. Cleveland State just beat Butler. Butler still gets in and the Horizon just became a two-bid league.

BlueintheFace
03-10-2009, 11:17 PM
Bad news for bubble teams. Cleveland State just beat Butler. Butler still gets in and the Horizon just became a two-bid league.

No biggie, Cincinnati turned in their bid earlier today so Cleveland State just gave it to Butler.

pfrduke
03-10-2009, 11:31 PM
No biggie, Cincinnati turned in their bid earlier today so Cleveland State just gave it to Butler.

I don't think Cincinnati actually had one to surrender.

ice-9
03-11-2009, 01:03 AM
It's Providence that's on the bubble...let's hope they trip up as well. :)

Bob Green
03-11-2009, 07:48 AM
St. Mary's is an interesting case - only 6 losses, several of which came without star Patty Mills, but extremely lacking in quality wins, and getting pasted by the Zags in last night's WCC title game. They have to be sweating.


I really don't think St. Mary's deserves an at-large bid. RPI 46, SOS 145. Their best wins are vs. SD St (44), Utah St (27), and Providence (71).

With Providence and St. Mary's both solidly on the bubble, one would have to believe St. Mary's has an advantage with their win over Providence. I realize the situation isn't that simple but a victory in a head-to-head matchup has to mean something.

CDu
03-11-2009, 09:50 AM
With Providence and St. Mary's both solidly on the bubble, one would have to believe St. Mary's has an advantage with their win over Providence. I realize the situation isn't that simple but a victory in a head-to-head matchup has to mean something.

I'm sure it means something, but only assuming that the resumes are virtually identical otherwise. The committee will look at the entire body of work. 30 games is a better measure of who is more deserving than one game. I mean, no one would say that UVa is better than Clemson, would they? Or that Morgan St is better than Maryland? BC better than Duke or UNC?

St. Mary's just doesn't have nearly the resume Providence has, in my opinion. St Mary's has only three wins against the RPI top-100 (they're 3-4 in games against the RPI top-100) and two losses to teams outside the RPI top-100.

Providence, on the other hand, has six wins against the RPI top-100 (two against the top-25) and no bad losses at all. I think that is worth more than a head-to-head loss back in November.

Other than the RPI (which overvalues wins against poor competition and undervalues competitiveness against good competition), there's little to support a claim for St. Mary's in the tournament, in my opinion.

dukie8
03-11-2009, 10:38 AM
I'm sure it means something, but only assuming that the resumes are virtually identical otherwise. The committee will look at the entire body of work. 30 games is a better measure of who is more deserving than one game. I mean, no one would say that UVa is better than Clemson, would they? Or that Morgan St is better than Maryland? BC better than Duke or UNC?

St. Mary's just doesn't have nearly the resume Providence has, in my opinion. St Mary's has only three wins against the RPI top-100 (they're 3-4 in games against the RPI top-100) and two losses to teams outside the RPI top-100.

Providence, on the other hand, has six wins against the RPI top-100 (two against the top-25) and no bad losses at all. I think that is worth more than a head-to-head loss back in November.

Other than the RPI (which overvalues wins against poor competition and undervalues competitiveness against good competition), there's little to support a claim for St. Mary's in the tournament, in my opinion.

equally, and probably more, important is the fact that the committee judges each team as it is now. the st mary's team today is much worse than the st mary's team that beat providence in november now that it clear that mills is much less than 100%.

MulletMan
03-11-2009, 10:52 AM
You know what's really interesting about that DePaul upset is that while it clearly hurts Cincy (or kills them) it most likely also hurts Providence. A win over Cincy in the second round of the Big East tourney probably would have helped Providence's S.O.S. and RPI numbers and been another win against a top 100 team. Now, they are playing a sub 200 team with a horrendous record. A win doesn't do them much good, and proabably leaves them needing to beat Louisville in the semis. A loss destroys any chance they have of getting in.

dukie8
03-11-2009, 11:00 AM
You know what's really interesting about that DePaul upset is that while it clearly hurts Cincy (or kills them) it most likely also hurts Providence. A win over Cincy in the second round of the Big East tourney probably would have helped Providence's S.O.S. and RPI numbers and been another win against a top 100 team. Now, they are playing a sub 200 team with a horrendous record. A win doesn't do them much good, and proabably leaves them needing to beat Louisville in the semis. A loss destroys any chance they have of getting in.

yes, the depaul win really hurts providence. beating depaul does nothing for them but beating cincy (a team formerly known as a bubble team) likely would have gotten them in. i'm still not sold on louisville. it had the benefit of not having to play at uconn or at pitt and lost to a horrible nd team by 33. beating louisville will get providence in.

ice-9
03-11-2009, 11:37 AM
I hope Providence beats Louisville and gets into the tournament.

It'll make space for Duke at the 2 seed. :)

CDu
03-11-2009, 11:47 AM
I hope Providence beats Louisville and gets into the tournament.

It'll make space for Duke at the 2 seed. :)

What many of the talking heads who are discussing potentially 3 Big East schools getting #1 seeds are forgetting is that at least one of Pitt and UConn will lose on Friday (at the latest), and at least two of the three possible #1s will lose in the Big East tournament. And it's very possible that Louisville will lose to Villanova or Marquette on Friday.

Meanwhile, OU has a good shot at winning their tournament, as does Memphis.

pfrduke
03-11-2009, 02:09 PM
Providence managed to escape the Blue Demons, despite trailing much of the game. The game against Louisville tomorrow could be a "win-and-in" for them.

Hancock 4 Duke
03-11-2009, 03:28 PM
Doesn't it seem like Miami is always on the bubble?

pfrduke
03-11-2009, 05:09 PM
It seems odd to say this after beating a team as bad as Colorado, but Texas likely locked up its at-large bid with its win. Their resume is strong enough that all they needed was to avoid a really bad loss. Tomorrow, they get Kansas State, a team with the same record but with a much thinner resume. For KSU, it's probably win or go home (well, go to the NIT, but you get my drift).

pfrduke
03-11-2009, 07:54 PM
Notre Dame currently getting housed by West Virginia at halftime. Barring an 18-point second half comeback, the Fighting Breys will be playing in the NIT. Aside from the 30+ point shellacking of Louisville (which is impressive), their resume is devoid of good wins - 1-point neutral court win over fellow bubble mate Texas and road win at fellow bubble mate Providence, and that's it. They don't have the kind of resume that gets 14-loss teams into the NCAAs

Udaman
03-12-2009, 11:44 AM
The bubble is actually pretty small, and after today will be much smaller. Here's the setup.

There are 19 conferences that will only get 1 bid. They are: America East, Alantic Sun, Big Sky, Big West, Colonial Athletic, Ivory, MAA, MidEastern, Mid American, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern (sorry Davidson), Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sunbelt, WAC. So that leaves 46 Spots.

These are the locks right now:

ACC (5): Duke, UNC, Clemson, Wake, Florida State
A 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Big East (7): UConn, Pitt, Nova, Marquette, W Virginia, Syracuse, Louisville
Big 10 (5): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Ok St, Tex A&M, Missouri
Conf USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (2): Butler, Cleveland State
Mountain West (2): BYU, Utah
Missouri Valley (1): N Iowa
Pac 10 (4): Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, California
SEC (2): Tennessee, LSU
West Coast (1): Gonzaga

That's 38 spots and leaves 8 more positions to fill.

The Bubble Teams are:

ACC (4) Boston College, Miami, Virginia Tech, Maryland
Big East (1) Providence
Big Ten (3) Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State
Big 12 (1) Kansas State
Mountain West (3) UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico
Missouri Valley (1) Creighton
Pac 10 (1) Arizona
SEC (3) South Carolina, Florida, Auburn
West Coast (1): St Mary's

That's it. 8 bubble spots. It could be 7 if Memphis loses, and maybe 6 if some team besides Xavier or Dayton win the A-10.

But after today, a few teams will be eliminated. Loser of Miami - Va Tech. Gone. Loser of UNLV - San Diego St. Gone. I think if Arizona loses to Arizona State, they are in big trouble. Providence losing to Louisville will take them out, I think. If either Michigan or Penn State lose today, they are out.

Along those same lines, certain winners can punch their dance card. The winner of UNLV - San Diego State is in. If Arizona wins, they are in. Same with Providence. I think if Miami beats Va Tech, they are looking good. If Boston College wins today, they are in.

Really interesting. After today's games, the bubble will be very, very small. Teams like Creighton and St. Mary's are very, very nervous - as well they should be.

dukie8
03-12-2009, 12:15 PM
The bubble is actually pretty small, and after today will be much smaller. Here's the setup.

There are 19 conferences that will only get 1 bid. They are: America East, Alantic Sun, Big Sky, Big West, Colonial Athletic, Ivory, MAA, MidEastern, Mid American, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern (sorry Davidson), Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sunbelt, WAC. So that leaves 46 Spots.

These are the locks right now:

ACC (5): Duke, UNC, Clemson, Wake, Florida State
A 10 (2): Xavier, Dayton
Big East (7): UConn, Pitt, Nova, Marquette, W Virginia, Syracuse, Louisville
Big 10 (5): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Ok St, Tex A&M, Missouri
Conf USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (2): Butler, Cleveland State
Mountain West (2): BYU, Utah
Missouri Valley (1): N Iowa
Pac 10 (4): Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, California
SEC (2): Tennessee, LSU
West Coast (1): Gonzaga

That's 38 spots and leaves 8 more positions to fill.

The Bubble Teams are:

ACC (4) Boston College, Miami, Virginia Tech, Maryland
Big East (1) Providence
Big Ten (3) Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State
Big 12 (1) Kansas State
Mountain West (3) UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico
Missouri Valley (1) Creighton
Pac 10 (1) Arizona
SEC (3) South Carolina, Florida, Auburn
West Coast (1): St Mary's

That's it. 8 bubble spots. It could be 7 if Memphis loses, and maybe 6 if some team besides Xavier or Dayton win the A-10.

But after today, a few teams will be eliminated. Loser of Miami - Va Tech. Gone. Loser of UNLV - San Diego St. Gone. I think if Arizona loses to Arizona State, they are in big trouble. Providence losing to Louisville will take them out, I think. If either Michigan or Penn State lose today, they are out.

Along those same lines, certain winners can punch their dance card. The winner of UNLV - San Diego State is in. If Arizona wins, they are in. Same with Providence. I think if Miami beats Va Tech, they are looking good. If Boston College wins today, they are in.

Really interesting. After today's games, the bubble will be very, very small. Teams like Creighton and St. Mary's are very, very nervous - as well they should be.

a couple of quibbles:

*minnesota is by no means a lock
*northwestern is a bubble team
*URI is a bubble team

yes, a lot will be sorted out today.

Mal
03-12-2009, 12:38 PM
a couple of quibbles:

*minnesota is by no means a lock


Agreed wholeheartedly. Udaman's got Ohio State and Michigan on the bubble and Minnesota as a lock: I think that's backwards. OSU's in. Michigan swept Minnesota, including beating them at Williams Arena in a huge implications game for both of them just last week. Add their wins over UCLA and Duke, compared to Minnesota's neutral court win over Louisville, and the resume has to be considered stronger for Michigan right now if you look at the two head-to-head. The Gophers have played like garbage for most of the last 6 weeks, too.

The experts seem to think MN doesn't need to beat Michigan State in the Big Televen Tournament to secure themselves a bid; just get past Northwestern and they punch a ticket. This seems indicative to me of the overall weakness of the pool this year. The fact that's it's conceivable that each of Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin make the tourney this year does not speak well of the landscape elsewhere (outside of the Big East and ACC). Those are not impressive or scary teams, any of them. In a normal season, the Gophs would have to win two in the conference tourney to overcome finishing .500 and losing a lot of games down the stretch while their offense has completely come apart.

Udaman
03-12-2009, 01:06 PM
Yes, I meant to have Ohio State as the lock, and Minnesota as the Bubble team. Though really, I should move all of them to the bubble. If Ohio State loses tomorrow to Wisconsin...they will definitely be on the bubble.

Still, I think that of Ohio State, Minnesota, Penn State and Michigan...two of those four get in - even though none of them are very good.

pfrduke
03-12-2009, 02:12 PM
And we can officially excuse Miami from the bubble, after bowing out with a very poor performance against the Hokies. The Canes never fulfilled the high preseason expectations. At least they'll (likely) be a host school for the NIT....

JasonEvans
03-12-2009, 02:13 PM
You really do not think that BC is in?

21-10 with a winning record in the ACC. They are 3-3 vs the RPI top 25, 4-4 vs the RPI top 50, and 7-7 versus the RPI top 75. That is really impressive. This is a team that plays .500 ball against the best teams in the land-- that's better than most any other bubble team. They have the road win at UNC and a some good wins at home. The only bad loss is the Harvard debacle-- all their other losses are to teams in the top 100 or just barely outside of it.

I think BC is in. Heck, I think they are an 8 or 9 seed if they win, as expected, against NC State. Even if they lose that game, I doubt they'd be lower than a 10 or maybe an 11. The bubble is typically the 12 seeds.

--Jason "BC is in" Evans

pfrduke
03-12-2009, 02:15 PM
Providence is also officially in sweating bullets mode. The loss to Louisville doesn't completely knock them off, I don't think, but they pretty much need every other bubble team to have poor conference tournament showings.

Minnesota picked up a key win over Northwestern. I don't think their work is completely done, but a loss would have left them very nervous. As for the Wildcats, it was nice to at least plausibly discuss an NCAA tournament bid for them in March. But they're pretty clearly out at this point.

And Xavier's win is good news for bubble teams. A whole lot of teams around the country will be rooting hard for the Musketeers to win their conference tournament.

pfrduke
03-12-2009, 02:41 PM
Not really bubble watch, in that neither team is on the bubble, but a big upset in the Big XII as Baylor gets by Kansas.

And actually, to make this on topic, Baylor would absolutely steal a bid if they win the conference tournament. They have zero chance of getting in at large after a 5-11 conference season, but are a dangerous, talented team that (with essentially the same roster) was an NCAA squad last year. Two more wins would not be beyond the realm of plausibility.

CDu
03-12-2009, 03:36 PM
You really do not think that BC is in?

21-10 with a winning record in the ACC. They are 3-3 vs the RPI top 25, 4-4 vs the RPI top 50, and 7-7 versus the RPI top 75. That is really impressive. This is a team that plays .500 ball against the best teams in the land-- that's better than most any other bubble team. They have the road win at UNC and a some good wins at home. The only bad loss is the Harvard debacle-- all their other losses are to teams in the top 100 or just barely outside of it.

I think BC is in. Heck, I think they are an 8 or 9 seed if they win, as expected, against NC State. Even if they lose that game, I doubt they'd be lower than a 10 or maybe an 11. The bubble is typically the 12 seeds.

--Jason "BC is in" Evans

I agree. The only way BC is even remotely sweating is if they lose to UVa today. But that would only bump them down to a 10 or 11 seed, I think. Their resume is just too good. They did have those early bad losses, but the @UNC and Duke wins should more than offset that. I think people are reading too much into their mediocre RPI, which overweights those two bad losses.

pfrduke
03-12-2009, 04:12 PM
I agree. The only way BC is even remotely sweating is if they lose to UVa today. But that would only bump them down to a 10 or 11 seed, I think. Their resume is just too good. They did have those early bad losses, but the @UNC and Duke wins should more than offset that. I think people are reading too much into their mediocre RPI, which overweights those two bad losses.

I must be confused about RPI. I thought it didn't factor in who you beat, just who you played and what your record is. So, for example, BC's RPI would be the same if they had beat Harvard and St. Louis but lost to UNC and Duke as it is in the opposite scenario. Is this wrong?

pfrduke
03-12-2009, 04:14 PM
More bubbling updates - Kentucky kept itself in the conversation by beating Mississippi, but still has a lot of work to do. Probably at least an SEC finals appearance will be necessary.

Michigan is destroying Iowa, getting revenge for the loss that's really the only reason they're on the bubble. This should get their bid pretty close to locked up, barring a disaster.

Udaman
03-12-2009, 04:34 PM
BC I was hedging on. Yes, right now they are in. But if they lost to Virginia....and other things fell the wrong way (Michigan, Ohio State, Arizona, South Carolina, Florida, Minnesota) - they could be sweating.

But win today, and it is a lock, for sure.

Right now, we know that:

1) Miami is done.

2) Va Tech must beat UNC, or they are done.

3) Providence is in big, big trouble.

4) Michigan is likely in. So too is Minnesota.

5) Kansas State is toast if they lose.

6) Arizona could be in big trouble if they lose.

Bluedog
03-12-2009, 04:48 PM
This is not bubble-related, but I didn't want to start a new thread. Anybody see the Marquette-Nova game? Wow! Marquette was down by 16 at half, and got up by 1 with 40 seconds left and the ball and the possession arrow. Nova had no timeouts left, played tough man-to-man D on that possession, but Marquette was just idiotic, taking a shot with about 13 seconds left in the game and missed it. They have to take more time off the clock. Duke would NEVER do that. Then Nova goes the other way and gets an uncontested layup as time expires (which almost bounced out)...I thought nova was actually going to intentionally foul in the previous possession (there was some major bumping; a foul could have been called). Anyways, quite a game! Marquette was nailing threes like it was their job in the second half, but just couldn't get the basket when they needed it the most and had stupid clock management. Especially since Nova had no timeouts remaining, getting the clock down to 4 seconds (even if they missed the shot), Nova would get the rebound and have to go the length of the court and make it...nearly impossible without a timeout. Just stupid.

dukie8
03-12-2009, 04:49 PM
You really do not think that BC is in?

21-10 with a winning record in the ACC. They are 3-3 vs the RPI top 25, 4-4 vs the RPI top 50, and 7-7 versus the RPI top 75. That is really impressive. This is a team that plays .500 ball against the best teams in the land-- that's better than most any other bubble team. They have the road win at UNC and a some good wins at home. The only bad loss is the Harvard debacle-- all their other losses are to teams in the top 100 or just barely outside of it.

I think BC is in. Heck, I think they are an 8 or 9 seed if they win, as expected, against NC State. Even if they lose that game, I doubt they'd be lower than a 10 or maybe an 11. The bubble is typically the 12 seeds.

--Jason "BC is in" Evans

i agree. it's ridiculous that BC even is in the discussion as a bubble team. winning at unc arguably is the best win by any team all year. toss in wins against duke and fsu and you have 3 wins that none of the teams actually on the bubble have. the bubble this year is filled with mediocrity and BC is better (a little) than that.

weezie
03-12-2009, 05:25 PM
AZ looked pitiful in their 2nd half. Budinger was MIA. Ugly.

Udaman
03-12-2009, 06:03 PM
The bubble is smaller now, for sure.

Arizona is done. So is Miami. So is (likely Providence). So is Kansas State.

I think Michigan and Minnesota are now in for sure.

So that leaves 6 spots and the following teams fighting for them:

1) Boston College - in with a win tonight
2) Va Tech - must beat UNC tomorrow.
3) Maryland - needs 2 wins in the tourney
4) Ohio State - needs 1 win
5) Penn State - needs to win today and tomorrow
6) San Diego State - win and they are in.
7) UNLV - ditto. Loser of this game is out.
8) New Mexico - must win tonight.
9) South Carolina -needs 2 wins in SEC tourney
10) Florida - ditto
11) Creighton - needs teams above to not win
12) St Mary's - ditto

Everyone is pulling for Memphis and Xavier or Dayton

johnb
03-12-2009, 06:21 PM
I must be confused about RPI. I thought it didn't factor in who you beat, just who you played and what your record is. So, for example, BC's RPI would be the same if they had beat Harvard and St. Louis but lost to UNC and Duke as it is in the opposite scenario. Is this wrong?

You're right (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/rpi_help/).

The specific wins and losses matter in regards to the overall selection, however, since the RPI is only one measure that the committee uses.

Mal
03-12-2009, 07:16 PM
Just a random comment, but have we yet commented on how utterly absurd it is that the Big Televen is in great position to get 8 teams in out of 11? A conference with one upper tier team.

Talk about an embarassment of good fortune:

* Conference chock full of respectable but not spectacular teams, leading to an almost indifferentiable mass of teams in the middle
* Conference has a couple really bad teams at the bottom, including probably the worst squad at an historic top 10 program ever, allowing those 3-8 teams to amass nice win totals
* Worst SEC in memory, with a maximum of 3 teams getting bids
* Pac 10 and Big 12 have pretty clear delineation between tourney-worthy teams and the rest
* Few upsets in mid-major conference tourneys, combined with weakness at the mid-major level generally, leading to probably no more than 4 or 5 at-large bids, at best, going to non-BCS schools

There just are not many high quality teams out there right now. Continuance of trend started by early entry? One year blip? Am I calling what used to be called "solid, deserving" 8 or 9 seeds "mediocre?" I don't know. I just can't believe that the Big 10, which appears to play a brand of basketball, even at its higher levels, that is so far below the top of the Big East and ACC as to lead one to wonder whether the players are even of the same age, is in line to get 8 bids.

Udaman
03-13-2009, 12:37 PM
After yesterday, the following, I think is true:

Boston College, Michigan, Minnesota, San Diego State are all in.

That leaves 5 spots for

1) Ohio State - likely in anyway, definitely in with win today.
2) Penn State - definitely in with win today
3) Maryland or Virginia Tech - in with win today
4) Florida - in with win today, I think
5) South Carolina - needs 2 more wins

On the wings are Creighton, St. Mary's and Arizona

Also, a bubble spot goes away if Memphis loses in its tourney, or if Temple beats Xavier today, they might sneak in as well.

dukie8
03-13-2009, 12:53 PM
After yesterday, the following, I think is true:

Boston College, Michigan, Minnesota, San Diego State are all in.

That leaves 5 spots for

1) Ohio State - likely in anyway, definitely in with win today.
2) Penn State - definitely in with win today
3) Maryland or Virginia Tech - in with win today
4) Florida - in with win today, I think
5) South Carolina - needs 2 more wins

On the wings are Creighton, St. Mary's and Arizona

Also, a bubble spot goes away if Memphis loses in its tourney, or if Temple beats Xavier today, they might sneak in as well.

SD St is by no means definitely in. USC and temple also have snuck into the equation.

BlueintheFace
03-13-2009, 12:56 PM
Refs are hosing MN right now... poor Tubby

Udaman
03-13-2009, 09:36 PM
Maryland should be in - end of discussion. They beat UNC, Michigan State and Wake. Name me any other bubble team with those kind of victories.

I'll stand by what I said earlier - there were 5 bubble spots. Right now I think

1) Maryland is in.
2) Temple is in (with their win over Xavier - their RPI moves up, plus, I think they win the tournament now).
3) Ohio State is in.

South Carolina is done with their loss. So is Virginia Tech. If Purdue beats Penn State, I think they are out.

That would leave 2 spots. Florida could get one. So too could Creighton, or Arizona, or St. Mary's. If Florida wins tonight, they are in, and the last team picked becomes a wild card. Right now, my money would be on Arizona (tough schedule, good wins) - Creighton really cost themselves with their blowout loss.