(pre) ACC Tournament discussion thread

[feldspar]

Wake is locking up the #2 seed as we speak, so the lineup will be:

Noon game:

(8) Virginia Tech vs. (9)Miami

Winner gets (1) UNC.

2pm game:

(5) Clemson vs. (12) Georgia Tech

Winner gets (4) Florida State

7pm game:

(7) Maryland vs. (10) NC State

Winner gets (2) Wake Forest

9pm game:

(6) Boston College vs. (11) Virginia

Winner gets (3) Duke




Really good Thursday games. Maryland/NC State will be particularly entertaining, I think. Potential for some great matchups on Friday, but I think it's safe to say UNC has an ideal road to the championship game. All the teams they lost to are on the other side of the bracket (Maryland, Boston College, Wake Forest).

[OldSchool]

I like our side of the bracket. When playing back-to-back games, having smart and veteran players is an important edge and for that reason I like our chances against Wake if we face each other.

I can see Florida State being a tough, tough out and giving UNC fits (if FSU manages to beat Clemson for the third time this season).

[jipops]

Wake is locking up the #2 seed as we speak, so the lineup will be:

Noon game:

(8) Virginia Tech vs. (9)Miami

Winner gets (1) UNC.

2pm game:

(5) Clemson vs. (12) Georgia Tech

Winner gets (4) Florida State

7pm game:

(7) Maryland vs. (10) NC State

Winner gets (2) Wake Forest

9pm game:

(6) Boston College vs. (11) Virginia

Winner gets (3) Duke




Really good Thursday games. Maryland/NC State will be particularly entertaining, I think. Potential for some great matchups on Friday, but I think it's safe to say UNC has a decent road to the championship game. All the games they lost to are on the other side of the bracket.

You kidding me? A decent road? You must have been thinking about another conference with that statement. Besides, usually a team that finished 1st gets the type of seeding that is more preferential. That's kind of how it works.

[geraldsneighbor]

Really exciting Thursday noon game. If the ACC is getting 8 teams I think that will obviously be the play-in game. Both teams probably have to do more then just that though.

Other thoughts: Maryland should beat NC St., but these teams had a great match-up last Sunday at the RBC. I think Florida State is better then Clemson, and with Clemson having had to play tonight at Wake and then again Thursday before they even reach Friday is a big edge to Florida State.

Duke and Wake would be a heck of a semi-final if it comes to that, which I anticipate. The teams would get to settle a 1-1 season split in a neutral site. Winner of that is assured to be no lower then a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

And....: I think everyone knows we could be less then a week away from part 3. I think it is really important Duke finds ways to lengthen the bench, specifically on Friday night and attempt to stay fresh. It would be tremendous to get another shot at them. It is also big to beat Wake because a loss to them basically assures a trip that won't be to Greensboro.

[RelativeWays]

The only teams that beat us on our side are BC and Wake. Wake has talent but they are inconsistent away from LJVM, BC was a fluke, they will not sneak up on us again. Thats not to say that the other teams can't beat us, I think BC proved if we play poorly, we can lose to anyone.

Even though UNC didn't lose to any team on their side, their wins against FSU and Miami were really close, and VT kept it competitive last week with the heels until about the last 2 or so minutes when they pulled away. And you know Clemson would love more than anything to beat UNC, something they haven't done in forever. I think UNC has the tougher road, and honestly, depending on how fresh their guys are, I think they tank the semi's. Right now the ACC is small time to them, they won it last year and the care only about winning an NC this year. I see the holes getting upset on Saturday. For us, who the heck knows....

[acciconoclast]

Roy Williams is not a huge ACC tourney fan by any means and only focuses on it when it affects their NCAA seed. UNC probably already has a #1 seed locked up so I could see UNC resting players (esp Lawson), getting lots of time for Zeller, Davis and Drew, and getting upset. Really don't see UNC winning the ACC tourney this year

[feldspar]

You kidding me? A decent road? You must have been thinking about another conference with that statement. Besides, usually a team that finished 1st gets the type of seeding that is more preferential. That's kind of how it works.

Speaking in relative terms, yes, UNC has a favorable draw in the tournament. They are 5-0 against the top of the bracket. Florida State will be a tough out, but I think it's not as tough a matchup as their Saturday game could have been had one or two games turned out differently.


And of course they deserve it, I have no problem with that.

[JStuart]

In listening to the Duke Radio broadcast, they mentioned after the game was over, that Roy and the team cut down the nets to celebrate the Regular Season Championship.
I'm wondering if that will insure some bad karma down the road?

[wisteria]

You kidding me? A decent road? You must have been thinking about another conference with that statement. Besides, usually a team that finished 1st gets the type of seeding that is more preferential. That's kind of how it works.

I didn't see anything in his post implying that UNC gets unfairly preferential treatment. He only stated his opinion and backed it up with his explanation. I don't actually agree with it, but he's got a point. calm down.

[wisteria]

The only teams that beat us on our side are BC and Wake. Wake has talent but they are inconsistent away from LJVM, BC was a fluke, they will not sneak up on us again. Thats not to say that the other teams can't beat us, I think BC proved if we play poorly, we can lose to anyone.

Even though UNC didn't lose to any team on their side, their wins against FSU and Miami were really close, and VT kept it competitive last week with the heels until about the last 2 or so minutes when they pulled away. And you know Clemson would love more than anything to beat UNC, something they haven't done in forever. I think UNC has the tougher road, and honestly, depending on how fresh their guys are, I think they tank the semi's. Right now the ACC is small time to them, they won it last year and the care only about winning an NC this year. I see the holes getting upset on Saturday. For us, who the heck knows....

I think lost in all the press about Duke's turnaround is Wake's turnaround. Wake, after an equally miserable stretch, has been on a roll after the loss at Cameron.

Here's an interesting observation. Last year, after we lost @ Wake, both teams went into tanking. This year, same thing. But after we win @ Cameron, both teams seem to be playing a lot better. I, for one, am a little worried about the wake game.

[The1Bluedevil]

Whoever goes further between Wake/Duke will have a great chance of getting the 2 seed in Greensboro.

[feldspar]

I think lost in all the press about Duke's turnaround is Wake's turnaround. Wake, after an equally miserable stretch, has been on a roll after the loss at Cameron.

Here's an interesting observation. Last year, after we lost @ Wake, both teams went into tanking. This year, same thing. But after we win @ Cameron, both teams seem to be playing a lot better. I, for one, am a little worried about the wake game.

Don't speak so soon. I think Maryland has a decent chance of beating Wake. That's going to be a fun game to watch if Maryland can get their butts in gear (which Gary usually is good at doing for the ACCT) and get past NCSU.

[Duvall]

In listening to the Duke Radio broadcast, they mentioned after the game was over, that Roy and the team cut down the nets to celebrate the Regular Season Championship.
I'm wondering if that will insure some bad karma down the road?

They did the same thing in 2005, 2007 and 2008. So I guess not.

[rkm]

I think Wake has a higher ceiling than Duke, which worries me. Combined with the fact they could snatch our 2 seed from us, that game will be just as important as today's.

[Duvall]

Don't speak so soon. I think Maryland has a decent chance of beating Wake. That's going to be a fun game to watch if Maryland can get their butts in gear (which Gary usually is good at doing for the ACCT) and get past NCSU.

Not lately. Maryland has one ACC tournament win since 2004. Maryland is cooked; I would be very surprised if they beat NCSU.

[wolfpackdevil]

Don't speak so soon. I think Maryland has a decent chance of beating Wake. That's going to be a fun game to watch if Maryland can get their butts in gear (which Gary usually is good at doing for the ACCT) and get past NCSU.

I think Maryland is a good team, but they will have a let down in the tournament. State is playing well right now, and will bet them.

I think it will end up being UNC vs. VT, FSU vs. Clemson, Wake vs. NCSU, and Duke vs. BC.

Then UNC will top Clemson and Wake will top Duke in the semis.

And like it or not, UNC will beat Wake for the ACC title

[wisteria]

I think Maryland is a good team, but they will have a let down in the tournament. State is playing well right now, and will bet them.

I think it will end up being UNC vs. VT, FSU vs. Clemson, Wake vs. NCSU, and Duke vs. BC.

Then UNC will top Clemson and Wake will top Duke in the semis.

And like it or not, UNC will beat Wake for the ACC title


BC has been rather disappointing lately, while UVA is playing better down the stretch. I won't be surprised if UVA knocks BC out.

And I think FSU tops Clemson. Clemson has not been very good lately.

[HDB]

I, for one, would relish another match up vs. BC. I thought our loss to them was the low point of the season and also its turing point with EWill entering the starting lineup following that game. I think our chances of containing Rice would be much better in a rematch with EWill defending him.

[jipops]

I didn't see anything in his post implying that UNC gets unfairly preferential treatment. He only stated his opinion and backed it up with his explanation. I don't actually agree with it, but he's got a point. calm down.

I'm calm dude - it's called questioning and discussion. Did I type in all caps? My point was about the 'ideal road' comment. There is none if you've been watching this season and it is clear the original poster does in fact understand that.

[JDev]

I, for one, would relish another match up vs. BC. I thought our loss to them was the low point of the season and also its turing point with EWill entering the starting lineup following that game. I think our chances of containing Rice would be much better in a rematch with EWill defending him.

I agree with that. Duke would have the extra mental edge of avenging a loss, and Duke is better now than they were then. EWill would be essential in slowing Rice, and Duke is better than BC at every other position.

[DBFAN]

I think we have a good draw, I mean we will probably get BC the first game (of course you never know with the inconsistency of BC) that will be a revenge game, and then we could get either Wake or Maryland on the Second round. Maryland would be worn out if they beat Wake, and with Wake having some young kids, it may be hard for them to figure out how to stretch themselves out, and not tire out.

BTW: Was very proud of this team today, just think, if we could get Singler, Scheyer, and Henderson all clicking at once, that would be a scary team.

Go Duke

[jipops]

I have no clue what to predict for this one. The Hokies could come out with the title on this one.

This thing could have the type of build up similar to the nba Western Conference playoffs had last season. Almost everyone is a tough out and there is some excellent talent on display.

[feldspar]

I have no clue what to predict for this one. The Hokies could come out with the title on this one.

This thing could have the type of build up similar to the nba Western Conference playoffs had last season. Almost everyone is a tough out and there is some excellent talent on display.

Interesting. I like this comparison.

I think this year's tournament, at least the Thursday/Friday games, will be MUCH more entertaining than last year's. Out of the first 8 games last year, only one was decided by less than ten points.

I don't see that happening next year.

[riverside6]

For those interested, we're running an ACC Tournament Bracket Contest (http://www.scacchoops.com/tt_NewsBreaker_External.asp?NB=1780).

Just like the NCAA tourney contests you do every year but for the ACC tourney. Consider it a warmup for the next weekend.

[Greg_Newton]

I think our chances of containing Rice would be much better in a rematch with EWill defending him.

True... I try to hesitate to lay so many expectations on Elliot so early, but he seems very mentally tough for his age.

Also, Carolina might be in for a tough game Friday afternoon. Whether their opponent is Miami or VT, it will be a dangerous team that is coming off of a solid win the day before and that will be well aware of the fact that if they beat UNC, they are likely in the NCAA tourney, and if they lose, they are out. BC is a probably a better team than either of them, but they won't be playing for their lives against Duke like Miami/VT will be against Carolina. Just a thought.

[jipops]

Interesting. I like this comparison.

I think this year's tournament, at least the Thursday/Friday games, will be MUCH more entertaining than last year's. Out of the first 8 games last year, only one was decided by less than ten points.

I don't see that happening next year.

Well the ACC has done it's best to destroy the best thing it has ever had, it's tournament. Would be nice if this year provided some sort of oasis.

[HDB]

Well the ACC has done it's best to destroy the best thing it has ever had, it's tournament. Would be nice if this year provided some sort of oasis.

Enlighten me --- how has the ACC done its best to destroy the ACC tournament? I still think it's the best Conference tourney going.

[wisteria]

Enlighten me --- how has the ACC done its best to destroy the ACC tournament? I still think it's the best Conference tourney going.

I could be wrong, but perhaps he's referring to ACCT being moved away from Greensboro?

[jv001]

Whoever goes further between Wake/Duke will have a great chance of getting the 2 seed in Greensboro.

You make a good point, but I would not mind seeing Duke get a location that will not be filled with unc fans. It happened in Charlotte and will happen in Gbo if we play there. I hate unc more every day. Go Duke!

[Duvall]

Enlighten me --- how has the ACC done its best to destroy the ACC tournament? I still think it's the best Conference tourney going.

Well, this year they moved the tournament to the worst basketball venue in the country. So there's that.

[marinbobbyduhon]

Whoever goes further between Wake/Duke will have a great chance of getting the 2 seed in Greensboro.

I need someone to explain to me why Wake Forest received the #2 seed in the ACC tourney. Both teams went 11-5 in ACC play, they split the season's series, each winning at home, although we looked substantially better than them, IMO, in our win at Cameron. Also, because of the unbalanced schedule, didn't someone post earlier that Duke had the toughest schedule in the ACC this year. So why are we the #3 seed?

Just curious, as I believe that we earned the #2 seed and were/are the better team, specifically because of our schedule and who we beat.

Thanks!

[Duvall]

I need someone to explain to me why Wake Forest received the #2 seed in the ACC tourney. Both teams went 11-5 in ACC play, they split the season's series, each winning at home, although we looked substantially better than them, IMO, in our win at Cameron. Also, because of the unbalanced schedule, didn't someone post earlier that Duke had the toughest schedule in the ACC this year. So why are we the #3 seed?

Just curious, as I believe that we earned the #2 seed and were/are the better team, specifically because of our schedule and who we beat.

Thanks!

Wake beat Carolina.

After head-to-head, ties are broken by record against the team that finishes first in the standings. If that doesn't break the tie, records against the second-place team are considered, and so on.

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

I think Maryland is a good team, but they will have a let down in the tournament. State is playing well right now, and will bet them.

I think it will end up being UNC vs. VT, FSU vs. Clemson, Wake vs. NCSU, and Duke vs. BC.

Then UNC will top Clemson and Wake will top Duke in the semis.

And like it or not, UNC will beat Wake for the ACC title

We'll beat Wake.
Love, Ima

[CDu]

Wake beat Carolina.

After head-to-head, ties are broken by record against the team that finishes first in the standings. If that doesn't break the tie, records against the second-place team are considered, and so on.

Exactly. The ACC doesn't consider strength of schedule in their seedings. It's purely win/loss overall and then win/loss against the top of the conference on down.

[Olympic Fan]

The fact that Wake is the 2 seed and Duke the 3 seed doesn't mean much, except that Duke has to play the late game Friday -- that's a bummer.

The fact that Duke and Wake are in the same bracket and would have to meet Saturday could have a huge impact on NCAA seedings. Only one of the two is going to be a No. 2 NCAA seed (you figure UConn, Pitt and UNC are No. 1 locks; Oklahoma, Louisville and Memphis are vying for the last No. 1 -- that leaves two more No. 2 seeds from among Kansas, Michigan State and the two ACC teams).

The difference between a No. 2 and a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament is not that big a deal ... but the ACC team that's seeded higher -- Duke or Wake -- should get the other Greensboro pod (UNC is locked into the other). That's two NCAA games in Greensboro rather than Philadelphia, Miami or Dayton.

Duke and Wake are so close nationally that Saturday will be seen as a tiebreaker game (or if one loses Friday, the other will win the tiebreaker by default).

Other NCAA implications? I agree that the winner of the Miami/VPI 8-9 game can play itself back into contention by upsetting UNC Friday -- so whichever the Heels face in the quarters will be a desperate team, fighting for its life ... and both have played UNC close. Wake could also face a desperate team on Friday if Maryland beats NC State in the 7-10 game.

I'm not that a quarterfinal win would get Miami/VPI or Maryland in the field, but I'm pretty sure that without such a win, those teams are out.

[diveonthefloor]

I almost wonder whether it would be better for Duke NOT to play in Greensboro pod....That place will be filled with UNC fans who will be vociferous against us. Other venues may be mildly anti-Duke, but not nearly as much as Gboro has the potential to be.

[roywhite]

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2008-2009/confonly.html

A quick look at team stats for in-conference games only reveals some interesting points:

Duke is very ordinary in most team defense stats as ranked against other conference teams:
9th in FG% defense
7th in 3-pt FG% defense
8th in rebound margin
11th in blocked shots
3rd in steals

There is one category that Duke leads (by a sizable margin):
#1 in Turnover Margin; giving up 11.1 turnovers/ game and gaining 16.3 turnovers/ game

I don't know for sure but I suspect this margin has increased somewhat with recent lineup changes; we take care of the ball well, and force turnovers. It's a key path to success in the ACC and NCAA tournaments.

[DukeUsul]

I almost wonder whether it would be better for Duke NOT to play in Greensboro pod....That place will be filled with UNC fans who will be vociferous against us. Other venues may be mildly anti-Duke, but not nearly as much as Gboro has the potential to be.

This is a good point. Playing in Philly would be much friendlier than playing in front of way too many heels fans.

[BlueintheFace]

I want me some Clemson and I want it BAAAAD!

If we could beat BC and then Clemson in the championship, then Carolina would be the only team we played this season that we did not beat.

That would be okay by me, but I think the most important thing is just to make it to the championship. If we do that, I believe we have locked up a #2 seed.

[mehmattski]

I'm a sucker for stats, so I thought I would take a look at the chances for each team in the ACC tournament using the log5 prediction method (http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm). Briefly, you take the winning percentage of each team to calculate the chances of each team winning a matchup. Tally that up across the whole bracket and you come up with something like this:

http://lh6.ggpht.com/_qR7ksA-9iBw/SbXE1P4Y5xI/AAAAAAAAA34/45sdIX4W_M4/ACCPrediction.jpg

Where each column is the percentage chance that a team will advance to that round. My statistics are generated from Ken Pomeroy's Efficiency Ratings, taking only the raw offensive and defensive ratings from ACC games only.

If you would like to see more predictions, based on full-season data, points for/against, and simple winning percentage, I have a more in depth post here (http://www.immaculateinning.com/2009/03/2009-acc-tournament-predictions.html). Anyway, using only statistics from ACC games, Duke is still in very good shape to make the finals of the ACC tournament.

[RelativeWays]

You make a good point, but I would not mind seeing Duke get a location that will not be filled with unc fans. It happened in Charlotte and will happen in Gbo if we play there. I hate unc more every day. Go Duke!

We're hated everywhere except Cameron, and MSG so that's not a reasonable deterent, and despite that Duke still has a solid fan base in NC. Charlotte is total Hole town but Greensboro has its fair share of Duke, Wake and State fans. Its actually one of the better balanced ACC towns I've been to. The ACC tourney does not need to leave NC, plain and simple, nobody in GA or FL or Mass or any other state cares about it the way we do.

[SMO]

I want me some Clemson and I want it BAAAAD!

If we could beat BC and then Clemson in the championship, then Carolina would be the only team we played this season that we did not beat.

Then, if we could get matched up with VCU and WVU at some point in the tourney we would ensure our very own version of the Duke curse!

[pfrduke]

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2008-2009/confonly.html

A quick look at team stats for in-conference games only reveals some interesting points:

Duke is very ordinary in most team defense stats as ranked against other conference teams:
9th in FG% defense
7th in 3-pt FG% defense
8th in rebound margin
11th in blocked shots
3rd in steals

There is one category that Duke leads (by a sizable margin):
#1 in Turnover Margin; giving up 11.1 turnovers/ game and gaining 16.3 turnovers/ game

I don't know for sure but I suspect this margin has increased somewhat with recent lineup changes; we take care of the ball well, and force turnovers. It's a key path to success in the ACC and NCAA tournaments.

The amazing thing is, with all of that, Duke still finished with the second best defense (on a per-possession basis) in the conference. Only Duke and FSU held opponents under a point per possession in conference play. FSU opponents score .9779 points per possession, Duke opponents scored .9801. That difference amounts to a three-point basket over the course of the season.