feldspar
03-05-2009, 01:03 PM
Wow, what a crazy ACC season this has been. With each team only having one game left, there are a lot of scenarios to be played out.
I mapped out what I consider to be the eight most likely scenarios based on the games left in the ACC. Those games are:
Georgiat Tech at Boston College
NC State at Miami
Virginia Tech at Florida State
Maryland at Virginia
Duke at North Carolina
Clemson at Wake Forest
If you don’t feel like poring over all of the projections, I’ll give you the rough overview:
In a nutshell, the only way Duke can capture the #1 seed in the ACC tournament is for Duke to win at Carolina and for Wake Forest to beat Clemson on Sunday night. Even if Duke beats Carolina on Sunday, a Clemson win, due to tiebreakers, would mean Carolina would finish ahead of Duke in all the scenarios I ran.
There are actually a few scenarios where Wake Forest finishes ahead of us. They all assume that we lose to Carolina, and Wake Forest wins.
That means if we beat Carolina, we need to root for Wake Forest. But if we lose on Sunday (which we won’t), we need to root for Clemson.
Before I go further, let me run down the tie breaker rules. This is from theacc.com.
Obviously, if two teams are tied, their regular season head-to-head is the first tiebreaker.
If that doesn’t determine it, you go down the rankings and determine how each team did against the next team below them in the rankings. However....if the next teams down are tied, you have to compile the two original teams against the teams tied below.
For example, let’s look at the following scenario, assuming Duke beats Carolina and Clemson, Virginia Tech, BC, Maryland and Miami all win this weekend.
That would leave the standings as:
UNC 12-4
Duke 12-4
WFU 10-6
Clemson 10-6
BC 9-7
FSU 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
In this scenario, UNC and Duke split their regular season matchups. So, you would go down the line in rankings. But since WFU and Clemson are also tied (since we’re assuming Clemson wins this weekend), you have to take the combined record of Duke vs. Clemson and Wake Forest and compare it with the combined record of UNC vs. Clemson and Wake Forest.
UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU, 1-0 vs. Clemson, Total: 1-1)
Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU, 0-1 vs. Clemson, Total: 1-2)
Thus, UNC wins the tiebreaker.
Make sense?
But what if three teams are tied somewhere in the standings? It could happen if Wake Forest and Virginia Tech both win. In that scenario, you take all three teams and compare their records against each other. Then you would have:
WFU 11-5
FSU 9-7 (2-0 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (0-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 1-1
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-2
Crazy, huh? If, after that process, two of the three teams are still tied, then you take the head to head matchup.
So, here are the eight scenarios I did. I limited my scenarios to the top half of the ACC standings, meaning I didn’t run scenarios for if Virginia beats Maryland, or if NC State beats Miami or Georgia Tech beats Miami. All of these are possible, but in my opinion, not very probable.
Winners: Duke, Clemson, VaTech
UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU, 1-0 vs. Clemson) Total 1-1
Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU, 0-1 vs. Clemson) Total: 1-2
WFU 10-6 (2-0 vs. BC, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 3-0
Clemson 10-6 (1-0 vs. BC, 1-1 vs. FSU) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (1-0 vs. FSU)
FSU 9-7
Maryland 8-8 (1-0 vs. VaTech)
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
Winners: Duke, Clemson, Florida State
UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU, 1-0 vs. FSU, 1-0 vs. Clemson) Total: 2-1
Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU, 2-0 vs. FSU, 0-1 vs. Clemson) Total: 2-2
WFU 10-6 (1-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 2-1
FSU 10-6 (0-1 vs. WFU, 2-0 vs. Clemson) Total: 2-1
Clemson 10-6 (1-1 vs WFU, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-3
BC 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 7-9 (1-0 vs. Miami)
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
Winners: Duke, WFU, VaTech
Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU)
UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU)
WFU 11-5
FSU 9-7 (2-0 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (0-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 1-1
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-2
Maryland 8-8 (1-0 vs. VaTech)
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
Winners: Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State
Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU)
UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU)
WFU 11-5
FSU 10-6
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC)
BC 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 7-9 (1-0 vs. Miami)
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
Winners: UNC, WFU, FSU
UNC 13-3
WFU 11-5 (1-0 vs. FSU-tie) (2-0 vs. Clemson, 2-0 vs. BC) Total: 4-0
Duke 11-5 (2-0 vs. FSU-tie) (0-1 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC) Total: 0-2
FSU 10-6
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC)
BC 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 7-9 (1-0 vs. Miami)
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
Winners: UNC, Clemson, VaTech
UNC 13-3
Duke 11-5
WFU 10-6 (2-0 vs. BC, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 3-0
Clemson 10-6 (1-0 vs. BC, 1-1 vs. FSU) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (1-0 vs. FSU)
FSU 9-7
Maryland 8-8 (1-0 vs. VaTech)
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
Winners: UNC, Clemson, FSU
UNC 13-3
Duke 11-5
WFU 10-6 (1-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 2-1 (win by virtue of head-to head with FSU)
FSU 10-6 (0-1 vs. WFU, 2-0 vs. Clemson) Total: 2-1
Clemson 10-6 (1-1 vs. WFU, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-3
BC 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 7-9 (1-0 vs. Miami)
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
Winners: UNC, WFU, VaTech
UNC 13-3
WFU 11-5 (2-0 vs. Clemson, 2-0 vs. BC, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 5-0
Duke 11-5 (0-1 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC, 2-0 vs. FSU) Total: 2-2
FSU 9-7 (2-0 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (0-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 1-1
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-2
Maryland 8-8 (1-0 vs. VaTech)
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
I mapped out what I consider to be the eight most likely scenarios based on the games left in the ACC. Those games are:
Georgiat Tech at Boston College
NC State at Miami
Virginia Tech at Florida State
Maryland at Virginia
Duke at North Carolina
Clemson at Wake Forest
If you don’t feel like poring over all of the projections, I’ll give you the rough overview:
In a nutshell, the only way Duke can capture the #1 seed in the ACC tournament is for Duke to win at Carolina and for Wake Forest to beat Clemson on Sunday night. Even if Duke beats Carolina on Sunday, a Clemson win, due to tiebreakers, would mean Carolina would finish ahead of Duke in all the scenarios I ran.
There are actually a few scenarios where Wake Forest finishes ahead of us. They all assume that we lose to Carolina, and Wake Forest wins.
That means if we beat Carolina, we need to root for Wake Forest. But if we lose on Sunday (which we won’t), we need to root for Clemson.
Before I go further, let me run down the tie breaker rules. This is from theacc.com.
Obviously, if two teams are tied, their regular season head-to-head is the first tiebreaker.
If that doesn’t determine it, you go down the rankings and determine how each team did against the next team below them in the rankings. However....if the next teams down are tied, you have to compile the two original teams against the teams tied below.
For example, let’s look at the following scenario, assuming Duke beats Carolina and Clemson, Virginia Tech, BC, Maryland and Miami all win this weekend.
That would leave the standings as:
UNC 12-4
Duke 12-4
WFU 10-6
Clemson 10-6
BC 9-7
FSU 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
In this scenario, UNC and Duke split their regular season matchups. So, you would go down the line in rankings. But since WFU and Clemson are also tied (since we’re assuming Clemson wins this weekend), you have to take the combined record of Duke vs. Clemson and Wake Forest and compare it with the combined record of UNC vs. Clemson and Wake Forest.
UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU, 1-0 vs. Clemson, Total: 1-1)
Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU, 0-1 vs. Clemson, Total: 1-2)
Thus, UNC wins the tiebreaker.
Make sense?
But what if three teams are tied somewhere in the standings? It could happen if Wake Forest and Virginia Tech both win. In that scenario, you take all three teams and compare their records against each other. Then you would have:
WFU 11-5
FSU 9-7 (2-0 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (0-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 1-1
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-2
Crazy, huh? If, after that process, two of the three teams are still tied, then you take the head to head matchup.
So, here are the eight scenarios I did. I limited my scenarios to the top half of the ACC standings, meaning I didn’t run scenarios for if Virginia beats Maryland, or if NC State beats Miami or Georgia Tech beats Miami. All of these are possible, but in my opinion, not very probable.
Winners: Duke, Clemson, VaTech
UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU, 1-0 vs. Clemson) Total 1-1
Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU, 0-1 vs. Clemson) Total: 1-2
WFU 10-6 (2-0 vs. BC, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 3-0
Clemson 10-6 (1-0 vs. BC, 1-1 vs. FSU) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (1-0 vs. FSU)
FSU 9-7
Maryland 8-8 (1-0 vs. VaTech)
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
Winners: Duke, Clemson, Florida State
UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU, 1-0 vs. FSU, 1-0 vs. Clemson) Total: 2-1
Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU, 2-0 vs. FSU, 0-1 vs. Clemson) Total: 2-2
WFU 10-6 (1-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 2-1
FSU 10-6 (0-1 vs. WFU, 2-0 vs. Clemson) Total: 2-1
Clemson 10-6 (1-1 vs WFU, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-3
BC 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 7-9 (1-0 vs. Miami)
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
Winners: Duke, WFU, VaTech
Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU)
UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU)
WFU 11-5
FSU 9-7 (2-0 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (0-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 1-1
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-2
Maryland 8-8 (1-0 vs. VaTech)
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
Winners: Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State
Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU)
UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU)
WFU 11-5
FSU 10-6
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC)
BC 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 7-9 (1-0 vs. Miami)
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
Winners: UNC, WFU, FSU
UNC 13-3
WFU 11-5 (1-0 vs. FSU-tie) (2-0 vs. Clemson, 2-0 vs. BC) Total: 4-0
Duke 11-5 (2-0 vs. FSU-tie) (0-1 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC) Total: 0-2
FSU 10-6
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC)
BC 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 7-9 (1-0 vs. Miami)
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
Winners: UNC, Clemson, VaTech
UNC 13-3
Duke 11-5
WFU 10-6 (2-0 vs. BC, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 3-0
Clemson 10-6 (1-0 vs. BC, 1-1 vs. FSU) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (1-0 vs. FSU)
FSU 9-7
Maryland 8-8 (1-0 vs. VaTech)
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
Winners: UNC, Clemson, FSU
UNC 13-3
Duke 11-5
WFU 10-6 (1-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 2-1 (win by virtue of head-to head with FSU)
FSU 10-6 (0-1 vs. WFU, 2-0 vs. Clemson) Total: 2-1
Clemson 10-6 (1-1 vs. WFU, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-3
BC 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 7-9 (1-0 vs. Miami)
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14
Winners: UNC, WFU, VaTech
UNC 13-3
WFU 11-5 (2-0 vs. Clemson, 2-0 vs. BC, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 5-0
Duke 11-5 (0-1 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC, 2-0 vs. FSU) Total: 2-2
FSU 9-7 (2-0 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (0-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 1-1
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-2
Maryland 8-8 (1-0 vs. VaTech)
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14