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feldspar
03-05-2009, 01:03 PM
Wow, what a crazy ACC season this has been. With each team only having one game left, there are a lot of scenarios to be played out.

I mapped out what I consider to be the eight most likely scenarios based on the games left in the ACC. Those games are:

Georgiat Tech at Boston College
NC State at Miami
Virginia Tech at Florida State
Maryland at Virginia
Duke at North Carolina
Clemson at Wake Forest

If you don’t feel like poring over all of the projections, I’ll give you the rough overview:

In a nutshell, the only way Duke can capture the #1 seed in the ACC tournament is for Duke to win at Carolina and for Wake Forest to beat Clemson on Sunday night. Even if Duke beats Carolina on Sunday, a Clemson win, due to tiebreakers, would mean Carolina would finish ahead of Duke in all the scenarios I ran.

There are actually a few scenarios where Wake Forest finishes ahead of us. They all assume that we lose to Carolina, and Wake Forest wins.

That means if we beat Carolina, we need to root for Wake Forest. But if we lose on Sunday (which we won’t), we need to root for Clemson.

Before I go further, let me run down the tie breaker rules. This is from theacc.com.

Obviously, if two teams are tied, their regular season head-to-head is the first tiebreaker.

If that doesn’t determine it, you go down the rankings and determine how each team did against the next team below them in the rankings. However....if the next teams down are tied, you have to compile the two original teams against the teams tied below.

For example, let’s look at the following scenario, assuming Duke beats Carolina and Clemson, Virginia Tech, BC, Maryland and Miami all win this weekend.

That would leave the standings as:

UNC 12-4
Duke 12-4
WFU 10-6
Clemson 10-6
BC 9-7
FSU 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14

In this scenario, UNC and Duke split their regular season matchups. So, you would go down the line in rankings. But since WFU and Clemson are also tied (since we’re assuming Clemson wins this weekend), you have to take the combined record of Duke vs. Clemson and Wake Forest and compare it with the combined record of UNC vs. Clemson and Wake Forest.

UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU, 1-0 vs. Clemson, Total: 1-1)
Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU, 0-1 vs. Clemson, Total: 1-2)

Thus, UNC wins the tiebreaker.

Make sense?

But what if three teams are tied somewhere in the standings? It could happen if Wake Forest and Virginia Tech both win. In that scenario, you take all three teams and compare their records against each other. Then you would have:


WFU 11-5
FSU 9-7 (2-0 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (0-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 1-1
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-2

Crazy, huh? If, after that process, two of the three teams are still tied, then you take the head to head matchup.

So, here are the eight scenarios I did. I limited my scenarios to the top half of the ACC standings, meaning I didn’t run scenarios for if Virginia beats Maryland, or if NC State beats Miami or Georgia Tech beats Miami. All of these are possible, but in my opinion, not very probable.


Winners: Duke, Clemson, VaTech

UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU, 1-0 vs. Clemson) Total 1-1
Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU, 0-1 vs. Clemson) Total: 1-2
WFU 10-6 (2-0 vs. BC, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 3-0
Clemson 10-6 (1-0 vs. BC, 1-1 vs. FSU) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (1-0 vs. FSU)
FSU 9-7
Maryland 8-8 (1-0 vs. VaTech)
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14

Winners: Duke, Clemson, Florida State

UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU, 1-0 vs. FSU, 1-0 vs. Clemson) Total: 2-1
Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU, 2-0 vs. FSU, 0-1 vs. Clemson) Total: 2-2
WFU 10-6 (1-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 2-1
FSU 10-6 (0-1 vs. WFU, 2-0 vs. Clemson) Total: 2-1
Clemson 10-6 (1-1 vs WFU, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-3
BC 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 7-9 (1-0 vs. Miami)
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14

Winners: Duke, WFU, VaTech

Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU)
UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU)
WFU 11-5
FSU 9-7 (2-0 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (0-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 1-1
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-2
Maryland 8-8 (1-0 vs. VaTech)
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14

Winners: Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State

Duke 12-4 (1-1 vs. WFU)
UNC 12-4 (0-1 vs. WFU)
WFU 11-5
FSU 10-6
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC)
BC 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 7-9 (1-0 vs. Miami)
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14

Winners: UNC, WFU, FSU

UNC 13-3
WFU 11-5 (1-0 vs. FSU-tie) (2-0 vs. Clemson, 2-0 vs. BC) Total: 4-0
Duke 11-5 (2-0 vs. FSU-tie) (0-1 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC) Total: 0-2
FSU 10-6
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC)
BC 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 7-9 (1-0 vs. Miami)
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14

Winners: UNC, Clemson, VaTech

UNC 13-3
Duke 11-5
WFU 10-6 (2-0 vs. BC, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 3-0
Clemson 10-6 (1-0 vs. BC, 1-1 vs. FSU) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (1-0 vs. FSU)
FSU 9-7
Maryland 8-8 (1-0 vs. VaTech)
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14

Winners: UNC, Clemson, FSU

UNC 13-3
Duke 11-5
WFU 10-6 (1-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 2-1 (win by virtue of head-to head with FSU)
FSU 10-6 (0-1 vs. WFU, 2-0 vs. Clemson) Total: 2-1
Clemson 10-6 (1-1 vs. WFU, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-3
BC 9-7
Maryland 8-8
VaTech 7-9 (1-0 vs. Miami)
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14


Winners: UNC, WFU, VaTech

UNC 13-3
WFU 11-5 (2-0 vs. Clemson, 2-0 vs. BC, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 5-0
Duke 11-5 (0-1 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC, 2-0 vs. FSU) Total: 2-2
FSU 9-7 (2-0 vs. Clemson, 0-1 vs. BC) Total: 2-1
BC 9-7 (0-1 vs. Clemson, 1-0 vs. FSU) Total: 1-1
Clemson 9-7 (1-0 vs. BC, 0-2 vs. FSU) Total: 1-2
Maryland 8-8 (1-0 vs. VaTech)
VaTech 8-8
Miami 7-9
NCSU 6-10
UVa 3-13
GaTech 2-14

Duvall
03-05-2009, 01:20 PM
Before I go further, let me run down the tie breaker rules. This is from theacc.com.

Obviously, if two teams are tied, their regular season head-to-head is the first tiebreaker.

If that doesn’t determine it, you go down the rankings and determine how each team did against the next team below them in the rankings. However....if the next teams down are tied, you have to compile the two original teams against the teams tied below.


I don't think this is quite right. You start at the top of the standings and work your way down for any tie.

bluedev_92
03-05-2009, 01:25 PM
Thanks for the analysis -

In your example regarding Duke & UNC - is that really how it works? It doesn't seem to me that you can get an apples to apples comparison against Wake/Clemson when we played three games vs. UNC's two games...

Olympic Fan
03-05-2009, 01:40 PM
Thanks for the analysis -

In your example regarding Duke & UNC - is that really how it works? It doesn't seem to me that you can get an apples to apples comparison against Wake/Clemson when we played three games vs. UNC's two games...

That is definitely the way it works -- fair or (IMHO) unfair.

In the ACC's eyes 1-0 = 2-0 (and 0-1 = 0-2). It goes by percentages.

Feldspar is right -- the only way Duke gets the No. 1 seed is if Duke beats UNC and Wake beats Clemson (Duke is 1-1 vs. Wake and UNC is 0-1).

Duke gets the No. 2 seed if Duke beats UNC and Clemson beats Wake OR if UNC beats Duke and Clemson beats Wake.

The only way Duke gets the No. 3 seed is if UNC beats Duke and Wake beats Clemson.

The best news is that we not only go into Sunday's game with a bye in the ACC Tournament secured, but we also can't fall below third -- which means no chance of meeting UNC until the finals.

There's not much different between 2 and 3 seed, except that 3 has to play the late game Friday night. The bigger question is what quarterfinal opponent does Duke end up with?

Obviously, Georgia Tech or Virginia would be great, but they would have to pull a big upset Thursday. More likely, Duke will get Miami, Maryland, Virginia Tech or Boston College on Friday.

Which of those would you prefer to play?

InSpades
03-05-2009, 01:51 PM
I'd say worst case scenario is Wake beats Clemson, Duke loses to UNC and VT beats FSU. This leaves Clemson in 6th I believe (3-way tie of Clemson, BC and FSU... Clemson is 1-2, FSU is 2-1 and BC is 1-1) and Duke in 3rd. Let's all hope that doesn't happen :).

feldspar
03-05-2009, 03:05 PM
I don't think this is quite right. You start at the top of the standings and work your way down for any tie.

Let's say Duke beats UNC on Sunday. They split their regular season matchups, so you do go down the line.

But, if the next team down the line is tied with another team (which is the case in several scenarios), you have to compare both Duke and UNC's records with ALL of the tied teams. Not just the first one in line.

feldspar
03-05-2009, 03:09 PM
I'd say worst case scenario is Wake beats Clemson, Duke loses to UNC and VT beats FSU. This leaves Clemson in 6th I believe (3-way tie of Clemson, BC and FSU... Clemson is 1-2, FSU is 2-1 and BC is 1-1) and Duke in 3rd. Let's all hope that doesn't happen :).

Yes, this would be worst case, because that would put us (probably) against Clemson on Friday and then (probably) Wake Forest or Maryland on Saturday.

InSpades
03-05-2009, 03:13 PM
Let's say Duke beats UNC on Sunday. They split their regular season matchups, so you do go down the line.

But, if the next team down the line is tied with another team (which is the case in several scenarios), you have to compare both Duke and UNC's records with ALL of the tied teams. Not just the first one in line.

His point is in your "Winners: UNC, Clemson, VaTech" tiebreakers. You are tiebreaking Wake and Clemson and you compare their records against B.C. and Florida St. You should be comparing them against UNC (start at the top of the standings). The end result is the same however (Wake has the tiebreaker).

The1Bluedevil
03-05-2009, 04:03 PM
A nice help occurred last night when B.C. lost. Now if Duke does fall to the 3 seed (lets be realistic here, this could easily happen) they will get B.C. instead of Clemson. I would much rather have Duke play B.C. if Duke falls to 3 instead of playing Clemson.

feldspar
03-05-2009, 04:16 PM
His point is in your "Winners: UNC, Clemson, VaTech" tiebreakers. You are tiebreaking Wake and Clemson and you compare their records against B.C. and Florida St. You should be comparing them against UNC (start at the top of the standings). The end result is the same however (Wake has the tiebreaker).

Yep, you're right.

My oversight does affect several of the scenarios, but I went through and checked, and it does not affect any of the tiebreaker results.

ACCBBallFan
03-05-2009, 04:38 PM
Hard to predict, but this is probably the most likely.

It would be better for the ACC number of teams in dance that Miami beats NC St this weekend. In effect, the #8 VA Tech vs. #9 Miami might then be a play in game whereas VA Tech/State would just be a play out game for VA Tech,

as would #7 MD/#10 Miami be a play out game for MD, versus a win over State helping MD's case.

If State wins only 1 ACC tourney game, they don't get into the dance anyway. So they would have to also beat UNC or Wake or Duke and even that may not be enough.
1. UNC (bye), then VA Tech/(Miami or NC St), then FSU/Clemson
12-3, then (Wake or Duke)

2-3. (Wake or Duke - bye) then MD/(NC St or Miami), then (Duke or Wake), then (UNC/(FSU or Clemson)
11-5

2-3. (Duke or Wake - bye), then BC/UVA then (Wake or Duke), then (UNC/(FSU or Clemson)
11-4

4 . FSU (bye) then Clemson/GA Tech
9-6, then UNC, then (Wake or Duke)

5. Clemson vs. #12 GA Tech
9-6, then FSU, then UNC, then (Wake or Duke)

6. BC vs. # 11 UVA, then (Duke or Wake), then (Wake or Duke)
8-7

7. MD vs. #10 (Miami or NC St), then (Wake or Duke), then (Duke or Wake)
7-8

8. VA Tech vs. #9 (Miami or NC St), then UNC
7-8, then FSU/Clemson

9. (Miami or NC St) vs. # 8 VA Tech, then UNC
6-9, then FSU/Clemson

10. (NC St. or Miami) vs. # 7 MD, then (Wake or Duke), then (Duke or Wake)
6-9

11. UVA vs. # 6 BC, then (Duke or Wake), then (Wake or Duke)
3-12

12. GA Tech vs. # 5 Clemson, then FSU, then UNC
2-13

Only thing for sure is that this year the ACC tourney champ will have to earn it against a couple of quality opponents.

Dukerati
03-05-2009, 04:44 PM
I'd say worst case scenario is Wake beats Clemson, Duke loses to UNC and VT beats FSU. This leaves Clemson in 6th I believe (3-way tie of Clemson, BC and FSU... Clemson is 1-2, FSU is 2-1 and BC is 1-1) and Duke in 3rd. Let's all hope that doesn't happen :).

Personally, I'd love to face Clemson again. We're playing better, in a neutral venue, with revenge in our hearts. Are there some matchup problems? Sure, but it goes both ways.

InSpades
03-05-2009, 04:59 PM
I'd love to play Clemson too, just not on friday!