The Road to 9 Teams

[feldspar]

This could be the year the ACC makes big waves in the tournament. I know a lot of people have been talking about getting six or even seven teams in the tourney. I think there could be a possibility of getting nine teams in. Chances aren’t great, but I think it’s possible. Here’s how:

In the ACC, we have our locks and our bubble teams.

Locks
UNC
Duke
Wake Forest
Clemson
FSU (yes, I’m putting them as a lock right now. I think they only have to win one game in the ACC tournament to get in with a 9-7 (at worst) record in the ACC)

Bubble
Boston College (61 RPI...not great...SOS 55)
Virginia Tech (69 RPI....SOS 41)
Maryland (58 RPI...SOS 29)
Miami (26 RPI...SOS 33)

So, everyone but Miami has shaky RPI numbers. Maryland has a decent SOS. Good news is that, with the remaining games on the schedule, it’s possible to get these teams’ records up enough that the committee could justify giving them all spots in the field.

Here’s where things have to land among the bubble teams after the remaining regular season games IMO, for us to get nine teams in:

FSU 9-7 (lose to VaTech....this loss is necessary to get VaTech a bid with their RPI and SOS)
Boston College 10-6 (beat NCSU and GaTech)
VaTech 9-7 (Beat UNC and FSU)
Maryland 8-8 (Beat Virigina)
Miami 8-8 (Beat GaTech and NCSU)

Virginia Tech’s going to be the wild card. They need to get hot and beat UNC and FSU to get in. If they don’t, you’re going to have a hard time justifying letting Maryland and Miami in. I think VaTech opens the door for Maryland and Miami at 8-8.

Obviously, this doesn’t factor in the ACC Tournament. Our chances are greater of getting nine teams in if one of the bubble teams can knock off one of the “lock” teams, with the exception of FSU. That’s where it gets dicey because FSU is on the bubble of the “lock” teams as it now stands.

This also doesn’t factor in the other conference tournaments. We need teams like Oklahoma, Kansas, Washington, Villanova and Michigan State to win their conference tournaments so we don’t have bubble or lower teams taking over the at-large spots.

Thoughts? Am I way off?

[Wander]

I've never understood why people list both RPI and SOS... SOS is already included in RPI, so it's like you're double counting it. But anyway.

It's kind of funny how the schedule worked out - none of the ACC bubble teams play each other. They all play locks or the bottom tier of UVA/GT/NCSU. I think this is really the point you're trying to make. It's a good observation, and I don't think you're that far off, but: Maryland is done. I think.

[Dar95]

It's certainly possible, but it's really going to depend on the ACC tournament (assuming that teams like MD and Miami avoid the "bad loss" before then). The good news is that there is a lot of opportunity there, since most games will be an opportunity to pick up another good win. I think MD is in the most trouble.

Also, your RPI numbers are off - it's actually Miami 44, BC 49, MD 47, VT 59, as of today. I think BC would have to fall apart pretty badly not to make it, unless there's an inordinate amount of chaos in bubbleville. And I can't see FSU missing out.

It would be pretty awesome if the ACC got more teams in than the Big East (which looks like 8 max at this point, unless someone goes on a huge tourney run).

[Duvall]

In the ACC, we have our locks and our bubble teams.

Locks
UNC
Duke
Wake Forest
Clemson
FSU (yes, I’m putting them as a lock right now. I think they only have to win one game in the ACC tournament to get in with a 9-7 (at worst) record in the ACC)

FSU has 22 wins and an RPI of 16. They don't need any more wins.


Bubble
Boston College (61 RPI...not great...SOS 55)
Virginia Tech (69 RPI....SOS 41)
Maryland (58 RPI...SOS 29)
Miami (26 RPI...SOS 33)

Where are you getting your RPI numbers?

[feldspar]

It's kind of funny how the schedule worked out - none of the ACC bubble teams play each other. They all play locks or the bottom tier of UVA/GT/NCSU. I think this is really the point you're trying to make. It's a good observation, and I don't think you're that far off, but: Maryland is done. I think.

I actually like Maryland's chances. All of their ACC losses have come against lock or bubble teams.

If they can get into the ACC Tournament as an 8 or 9 seed and win a game I think they have a good shot.

[gw67]

I think that you are off but I like your creative thinking. I think that the ACC will get a minimum of six and then possibly one of Tech, Miami or Maryland. The latter three need to win their remaining games and win at least one in the ACCT. Helping, of course, is a host of bubble teams from weaker conferences who don't look any better than these three on paper.

gw67

[feldspar]

FSU has 22 wins and an RPI of 16. They don't need any more wins.



Where are you getting your RPI numbers?

Mine are from Pomeroy.

Much of my analysis is based solely on ACC wins, and I haven't taken a look at a lot of non-conference stuff. That's obviously going to play a big factor but the strength of the ACC this year is going to help rather than hurt our chances.

[pfrduke]

Mine are from Pomeroy.

Much of my analysis is based solely on ACC wins, and I haven't taken a look at a lot of non-conference stuff. That's obviously going to play a big factor but the strength of the ACC this year is going to help rather than hurt our chances.

Are you aware he no longer does RPI? He has his own ratings, but no RPI.

[feldspar]

Are you aware he no longer does RPI? He has his own ratings, but no RPI.

I was not aware of that.

So, yeah, my numbers are way off.

*throws a stack of papers in the air*

[Reddevil]

Duke, unc, Wake, Clemson, FL St., and BC will probably get in. If Miami wins the last 2 regular season games and a game in the ACC tournament they will be 21-10, and probably in. The selection committee looks hard at the last dozen games. This is very bad for VA Tech. They really need to shock the world this week, and next to get in. Maryland is going to cause the committee fits. They need to finish strong, win deep into the ACC tournament, and hope the committee pulls every last hair out when deciding. I'm guessing the ACC gets 7, with Miami being the last, but the results of this week will probably not go by the chalk - does it ever?

[dukeballer2294]

IMO 6 r locks
DUke UNC WFU CLemson FSU BC
Out of the remaining 3 at most 2 will get in.
When you there there is a possibility for 9 teams u r partially correct. Yes those 9 teams all have chances but no not all of them will get in. Theyd let a creighton or another25-5 mid major team in over a 18-12(8-8) Miami/Maryland team
Last i think in the end VT will be the only other team that will get in if Miami or Maryland do they need to make a serious run in the tourney

[Matches]

It's really still too early to call it IMO. Five ACC teams are locks - BC will be very hard to keep out if they take care of business against inferior competition.

But so much turns on the conference tournaments - specifically which teams come out of nowhere to win their tourneys and get automatic bids. What happens if Davidson loses in the SoCon tourney, for example? Or Memphis in the C-USA tourney? Every time that happens an at-large bid goes away. It's impossible to figure out who's in without knowing who gets all the automatic bids.

[WeepingThomasHill]

Others have noted it already, but your RPI numbers are incorrect and outdated.

I don't want Maryland or VTech making the tournament, solely due to my hatred of their coaches and their general thuggery. Dave Neal and the guy that gooned Singler with an elbow can play in the NIT and watch us cut down the nets. So I will be rooting for plenty of lesser teams to win their conference tournaments, and push Maryland and the Hokies off the bubble, no matter their RPI, SOS or Pom rating.

[Faison1]

I was not aware of that.

So, yeah, my numbers are way off.

*throws a stack of papers in the air*

That is hilarious!!!!!! Thank you so much for making laugh really hard after a truly dreadful day.

I think all in all, your analysis is pretty close, with the numbers being off a bit.....as long as BC doesn't choke, they are in.....and FSU is fighting for seeding right now.....

[Biscuit King]

Sadly, the pomeroy ratings would actually be a GOOD measuring stick. Instead, the committee uses the RPI, which is about as useful as a poopy-flavored popsicle.

[throatybeard]

It's really still too early to call it IMO. Five ACC teams are locks - BC will be very hard to keep out if they take care of business against inferior competition.

But so much turns on the conference tournaments - specifically which teams come out of nowhere to win their tourneys and get automatic bids. What happens if Davidson loses in the SoCon tourney, for example? Or Memphis in the C-USA tourney? Every time that happens an at-large bid goes away. It's impossible to figure out who's in without knowing who gets all the automatic bids.

Bingo.

I'm going to raise the same concern I did in the other thread, before I was roundly shouted down: you've got to look at the whole field when you try to assess this thing. Blanket assertions that if so-and-so goes 8-8, then they're in--those are meaningless if you're not looking at the whole field. If you just make assertions based on an arbitrary notion of what's good enough, it's sound and fury, signifying nothing.

When you look at the whole field, there's actually a leeetle bit off support for Feldspar's maximal scenario. This aggregator has Maryland in (albeit at a 12-seed), and both VT and Miami now in the first four out. That is really amazingly good for a 12-team conference.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

So for Max Feldspar, a lot is going to have to break a certain way, but it's at least vaguely possible. Teams that are out need to lose, and teams that are in need to lose a little too:

--Virginia Tech at North Carolina is hugely important. For the conference to get 9, some losses will have to happen that damage teams who are already in.

--Maryland's loss to WFU hurts the max scenario. Yes, Maryland-Virginia is huge.

--The sunk teams need to keep losing. For max scenario, root against State, GT, and UVA, both this weekend and in Atlanta. Miami plays both State and GT this week. State also probably plays the bubbling 7 seed in the TH round of the ACCT.

--A big concern is the 8-9 game in the ACCT. Some bubble team is going to have to lose that game, and that's bad.

--Some one-team and two-team and three-team conferences need to stay that way. In other words, you better hope to honk that Dayton or Xavier wins the A10T. You don't want a New Mexico stealing the MWCT. &c.

So ultimately, probably too many things have to go right.

[ice-9]

I'm going to raise the same concern I did in the other thread, before I was roundly shouted down: you've got to look at the whole field when you try to assess this thing. Blanket assertions that if so-and-so goes 8-8, then they're in--those are meaningless if you're not looking at the whole field. If you just make assertions based on an arbitrary notion of what's good enough, it's sound and fury, signifying nothing.

It's fairly common knowledge that this year is highly favorable for the Big East, ACC and Big 10 to get a lot of bids.

- There are fewer mid majors who deserve an at large bid than usual

- The SEC is simply terrible

- Big 12 is down

- Pac 10's usual flag bearers are down

So...I'd say an 8-8 ACC record is pretty darn good this year. (Heck, 8-8 in the ACC and at least 20 wins has been extremely good historically.) To imply that this notion is spurious is quite frankly a little...arbitrary.

[mehmattski]

I'm going to try and rescue this thread using Pomeroy's rankings (I'm including SOS because it does make sense to do so with Pomeroy's rankings, unlike RPI, although Pomeroy's ratings are adjusted for team's played.):

IN: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Wake, FSU

Miami: 26th, 33rd SOS Without a deep ACC-tourney run, I think it's very possible that the highest ranked team by Pomeroy to not make the NCAAT will be Miami. With two very winnable regular season games (at GT and vs NCSU) left, it's likely that they will finish the season at 19-10 (8-8). They have one of the worst non-conference schedules for any BCS conference team (ranked 264th by Pomeroy).

If the selection committee is in tune with Pomeroy's rankings, they will see that statistically Miami is almost certainly one of the best 34 at large teams. However, their record will not reflect that unless they win a couple of ACC tournament games. It's the thinnest of bubbles for the Hurricanes. One thing going for Miami is that if they let in a Maryland team with a similar record, they have to consider Miami as well.

Maryland: 58th, 29th SOS: All of the ACC teams get a SOS bump from playing Duke, UNC, Wake, and Clemson, and Maryland's out of conference SOS (221st) is just as abysmal as Miami's. Of course, the committee is probably not going to look at statistics, they're going to look at the record (likely 19-11, 8-8 pre-tourney) and the marquee wins. Statistically, they don't belong in the tournament.

Virginia Tech 69th, 41st SOS: I think they have to either beat UNC tonight or win the ACC tournament. I don't see any way of the committee letting in a team that was sub-.500 in ACC play unless they do something dramatic. The statistics don't give them any help either.

Boston College: 61st, 55th SOS: in many ways this is the opposite of the Miami situation. Better conference record (could be 10-6 after games vs GT and at NCSU), marquee wins over UNC and Duke... and terrible overall statistics.

So the OP asked for scenarios in which all four teams get in... I'm thinking that if all four teams win their remaining games, then the following:

ACCT semifinals: Maryland over Miami, VT over one of the "lock teams."
ACCT finals: VT over Maryland

Then I think it would still be iffy for Miami, but I think that the other three would definitely be in. Further, I don't think that this scenario would necessarily exclude Florida State or BC from the picture, although that's possible as well.

[feldspar]

Bingo.

I'm going to raise the same concern I did in the other thread, before I was roundly shouted down: you've got to look at the whole field when you try to assess this thing. Blanket assertions that if so-and-so goes 8-8, then they're in--those are meaningless if you're not looking at the whole field. If you just make assertions based on an arbitrary notion of what's good enough, it's sound and fury, signifying nothing.

When you look at the whole field, there's actually a leeetle bit off support for Feldspar's maximal scenario. This aggregator has Maryland in (albeit at a 12-seed), and both VT and Miami now in the first four out. That is really amazingly good for a 12-team conference.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

So for Max Feldspar, a lot is going to have to break a certain way, but it's at least vaguely possible. Teams that are out need to lose, and teams that are in need to lose a little too:

--Virginia Tech at North Carolina is hugely important. For the conference to get 9, some losses will have to happen that damage teams who are already in.

--Maryland's loss to WFU hurts the max scenario. Yes, Maryland-Virginia is huge.

--The sunk teams need to keep losing. For max scenario, root against State, GT, and UVA, both this weekend and in Atlanta. Miami plays both State and GT this week. State also probably plays the bubbling 7 seed in the TH round of the ACCT.

--A big concern is the 8-9 game in the ACCT. Some bubble team is going to have to lose that game, and that's bad.

--Some one-team and two-team and three-team conferences need to stay that way. In other words, you better hope to honk that Dayton or Xavier wins the A10T. You don't want a New Mexico stealing the MWCT. &c.

So ultimately, probably too many things have to go right.


These are excellent points. I wish I had time to go and compare our bubble teams to the major conference bubble teams. That would give us a clearer picture.
I think, though, that when you stack up the ACC against all the other conferences except the Big East, we’re going to have a significant advantage in getting our teams in rather than anyone else’s.

That’s why the other conference’s tournaments are so important. We need Washington, Michigan State, Oklahoma/Kansas , LSU to win their conference tournaments or getting nine won’t happen.

Yes, it’s a pipe dream, but it’s a possible pipe dream.

[Greg_Newton]

I would personally be very surprised if Miami were to win their next two games and then get passed over by the committee, especially if they can also get a win or two in the ACC tourney. People have been speculating all season that 8 wins in the ACC might very well be enough this year, and Miami's solid RPI combined with their 3 OT ACC losses and blowout win against Wake Forest gives them a pretty good case in my book (especially if they finish the regular season with 4 straight wins, which they should). Perhaps I'm biased because I've always liked Jack McClinton, but I would have a hard time skipping over them.

[feldspar]

I would personally be very surprised if Miami were to win their next two games and then get passed over by the committee, especially if they can also get a win or two in the ACC tourney. People have been speculating all season that 8 wins in the ACC might very well be enough this year, and Miami's solid RPI combined with their 3 OT ACC losses and blowout win against Wake Forest gives them a pretty good case in my book (especially if they finish the regular season with 4 straight wins, which they should). Perhaps I'm biased because I've always liked Jack McClinton, but I would have a hard time skipping over them.

If you give Miami a bid, I think you’d be very hard pressed to not give Maryland a bid (assuming they beat Virginia this weekend and finish 8-8 in the ACC).

Maryland has won some big games this year. Yes, they are their usual schizophrenic selves, losing against crappy teams but getting hyped up for the big ones, but their resume is certainly worthy of getting a bid considering they come out of the ACC and all of their conference losses have been against the top tier of the ACC.

[feldspar]

--A big concern is the 8-9 game in the ACCT. Some bubble team is going to have to lose that game, and that's bad.


The more I think about it, the more I agree with this point and its implications.

Most likely, you're going to have Maryland and Miami in that game.

I think the loser of that game has a really good chance of getting overlooked by the committee, unfortunately.

[Atldukie79]

I am interested in the fact that the unbalanced ACC scheduled hasn't entered into this discussion. I am aware that the RPI and the Pom rankings account for strength of scheduled, etc.

But for those trying to use ACC records as proxies in their scenarios should consider who the teams have played. It hasn't gone unnoticed on this board that Duke has had the toughest ACC schedule by far. One game each against the 4 bottom ACC teams. So not all 8-8 or 9-7 records are equivilent.

Which brings me to the tie breaker for seeding purposes for the ACC tourney. If we tie with UNC for reguar season, #1, I am inder the impression that we start comparing records against the next best conference team to break the tie. In this case, we want Wake to be third as we were 1-1 and UNC was 0-1 against them. UNC wins the tie breaker if Clemson is third. (Please correct me if I am wrong).

Wouldn't it be nice if the tie breaker was who had the tougher ACC schedule? At least for this year...

[feldspar]

I am interested in the fact that the unbalanced ACC scheduled hasn't entered into this discussion. I am aware that the RPI and the Pom rankings account for strength of scheduled, etc.

But for those trying to use ACC records as proxies in their scenarios should consider who the teams have played. It hasn't gone unnoticed on this board that Duke has had the toughest ACC schedule by far. One game each against the 4 bottom ACC teams. So not all 8-8 or 9-7 records are equivilent.

Which brings me to the tie breaker for seeding purposes for the ACC tourney. If we tie with UNC for reguar season, #1, I am inder the impression that we start comparing records against the next best conference team to break the tie. In this case, we want Wake to be third as we were 1-1 and UNC was 0-1 against them. UNC wins the tie breaker if Clemson is third. (Please correct me if I am wrong).

Wouldn't it be nice if the tie breaker was who had the tougher ACC schedule? At least for this year...


Well, you have to look at more than just Clemson and WFU, though.

There are two teams (Duke, UNC) that have a possibility of finishing 12-4.

There is one team that can finish 11-5 (WFU).

There is the possibility of FOUR teams finishing at 10-6.

If Clemson beats WFU, FSU beats VaTech, and BC beats NCSU and GaTech, you'll have a logjam at third place.

We're probably going to have either Clemson or Wake Forest on our side of the bracket. I'd rather have Wake Forest, personally.

[Greg_Newton]

Wouldn't it be nice if the tie breaker was who had the tougher ACC schedule? At least for this year...

That would just make too much sense, wouldn't it?

Seeing as that's unfortunately not the case though, does anyone know how 7-8-9 would go if VT/Miami/Maryland all finish 8-8 (which is fairly likely, unless VT goes 7-9)? If I'm reading right it looks like it would be Maryland, then VT, then Miami, seeing as Maryland beat VT in their meeting and split with Miami, and that VT beat Miami in their meeting. In that scenario, I could see strong cases being made for both Maryland (if they at least beat the 10 seed) and whoever wins the 8/9 game, even if they drop their next games. Which would mean that, at the least, getting 8 teams in the tourney is a very legitimate possibility at this point. 9 would be pretty tough.

Or maybe I've got this all completely backwards?

[feldspar]

That would just make too much sense, wouldn't it?

Seeing as that's unfortunately not the case though, does anyone know how 7-8-9 would go if VT/Miami/Maryland all finish 8-8 (which is fairly likely, unless VT goes 7-9)? If I'm reading right it looks like it would be Maryland, then VT, then Miami, seeing as Maryland beat VT in their meeting and split with Miami, and that VT beat Miami in their meeting. In that scenario, I could see strong cases being made for both Maryland (if they at least beat the 10 seed) and whoever wins the 8/9 game, even if they drop their next games. Which would mean that, at the least, getting 8 teams in the tourney is a very legitimate possibility at this point. 9 would be pretty tough.

Or maybe I've got this all completely backwards?

Once tonight's games are done, I'm gonna do a complete overview of where things stand and the scenarios given this weekend's upcoming games, including tiebreakers.

[Greg_Newton]

Once tonight's games are done, I'm gonna do a complete overview of where things stand and the scenarios given this weekend's upcoming games, including tiebreakers.

Sounds great. Man, do I love March.

[-bdbd]

I'm going to raise the same concern I did in the other thread, before I was roundly shouted down: you've got to look at the whole field when you try to assess this thing. Blanket assertions that if so-and-so goes 8-8, then they're in--those are meaningless if you're not looking at the whole field. If you just make assertions based on an arbitrary notion of what's good enough, it's sound and fury, signifying nothing.
http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm


Gotta agree with Throaty here. In basketball, as in so many things in life, those doing the analysis almost always have bias towards focusing on their own impact on the prescribed outcome. (Think of US politicians in the 80's claiming that WE brought down the Soviet Union when in fact most experts in the rest of the world would tell you that the Soviet Union mostly crumbled from within...)

Results from mid-major tournaments, at least as much as the impact of ACC bubble-teams' performances, will determine how many ACC teams are dancing in March.

Think, hypothetically, that based on just ACC team performances, the committee would rank MD as the 65th team to make the NCAA's, and VPI as the 63rd best, and BC as 57th best.

But then you get 3rd, or 4th or 6th-place teams - teams that otherwise would have had no chance of dancing - then winning their mid-major tournaments. But in doing so they displace their conference's best team that was considered a lock and has, say 25-28 wins. The committee would be hard-pressed not to still invite that 28-win, first-place squad. So, as the dominos fall, these teams with poor (or even losing) records, but who won their tournaments, have to be slid into the list of 65 qualifiers (even if they ultimately receive a 12 - 16 seed). So then MD goes from the committee's 65-th best/qualifying team, to 66th, or 67th or whatever. And they are out. If, in my hypothetical rankings above, three such otherwise unqualified teams win their tournamnts, then VPI slides from #63 to #66... and out of the dance. So, ultimately, a team like VPI can win ALL of their remaining games and still not dance, depending on what happens elsewhere. If you, like me, want to see a LOT off ACC teams playing in the NCAA's, then root for all of the Mid-Major favorites to win their conference tournaments. The more upsets there are, the harder it becomes for the ACC to max out.

All that said, I expect ultimately to see 7 ACC teams in the tournament, though +/- 1 is possible. Locks: UNC, Duke, Wake, Clemson. Very probable: FSU. Probable: BC. Bubble: VPI, Miami, & MD. And it seems likely that at least one of those bubble teams qualify. Two bubble teams would be great.

-BDBD :cool:

P.S. Also very interested in WHERE Duke is going to play. Given that RPI/SOS, a #1 seed seems still within reach, but probably requires an ACC championship.

[pfrduke]

Once tonight's games are done, I'm gonna do a complete overview of where things stand and the scenarios given this weekend's upcoming games, including tiebreakers.

BC and Miami appear to have gotten the wrong road map. The Eagles are down 8 with 4 to play, and the Canes got pasted in the first half.

[arydolphin]

BC lost by 5 at NC State, which they did not need. You would think that they could get to 9-7 in the conference since they end the season at home vs. Georgia Tech.....except that Georgia Tech is beating Miami by 13 with 3:50 to go! If this score holds up, it's a crushing loss for Miami since they would be 6-9 in the conference with a game against NC State to end the season. Not a good night for ACC bubble teams with Va Tech also losing to Carolina.

[notacolour]

Yep, Miami lost, too. Looks like they're sunk. And could BC get any less consistent?

[JasonEvans]

BC lost by 5 at NC State, which they did not need. You would think that they could get to 9-7 in the conference since they end the season at home vs. Georgia Tech.....except that Georgia Tech is beating Miami by 13 with 3:50 to go! If this score holds up, it's a crushing loss for Miami since they would be 6-9 in the conference with a game against NC State to end the season. Not a good night for ACC bubble teams with Va Tech also losing to Carolina.

In the past 24 hours, the ACC went from a path to 9 teams to maybe only 6 or 7. Gaaak!

BC lost to NC State. They must beat Ga Tech now and I think they even need to win a first round ACC tourney game against someone like Virginia or NC State. They should still get in, but they are not making it easy on themselves.

Miami threw it away by losing by 10 to a really bad Ga Tech team. hey certainly must beat someone like Va Tech or Maryland in the ACC first round and might even need to beat Duke or UNC in the second round to have a prayer of getting in. Really, really bad loss.

Va Tech must win at FSU -- a tall order. Either that or they may need an upset over an upper level team (Duke or UNC, most likely) in the ACC tourney.

--Jason "what a pity. It looked so promising a little while ago" Evans

[CDu]

In the past 24 hours, the ACC went from a path to 9 teams to maybe only 6 or 7. Gaaak!

BC lost to NC State. They must beat Ga Tech now and I think they even need to win a first round ACC tourney game against someone like Virginia or NC State. They should still get in, but they are not making it easy on themselves.

Miami threw it away by losing by 10 to a really bad Ga Tech team. hey certainly must beat someone like Va Tech or Maryland in the ACC first round and might even need to beat Duke or UNC in the second round to have a prayer of getting in. Really, really bad loss.

Va Tech must win at FSU -- a tall order. Either that or they may need an upset over an upper level team (Duke or UNC, most likely) in the ACC tourney.

--Jason "what a pity. It looked so promising a little while ago" Evans

Right now, seven would be nice. VT and Maryland could very well lose @FSU and @UVa. I'd even say I'd expect both of them to lose those games. So we're very likely to have three teams sitting at 7-9 in conference. If that happens, honestly I'd have trouble making a case for any of them over, say, a 7-11 Georgetown team.

I think we'll safely get six. A week ago, I felt really confident we'd get seven, and maybe eight. Now, I'm not confident we'll get seven, and I'd be really surprised to get eight.

[BD80]

In the past 24 hours, the ACC went from a path to 9 teams to maybe only 6 or 7. Gaaak! ...

Miami ... might even need to beat Duke or UNC in the second round to have a prayer of getting in. ...

Va Tech ... may need an upset over an upper level team (Duke or UNC, most likely) in the ACC tourney.

--Jason "what a pity. It looked so promising a little while ago" Evans

I vote one beats UNC. Too bad for the other.

[Duvall]

Right now, seven would be nice. VT and Maryland could very well lose @FSU and @UVa. I'd even say I'd expect both of them to lose those games. So we're very likely to have three teams sitting at 7-9 in conference. If that happens, honestly I'd have trouble making a case for any of them over, say, a 7-11 Georgetown team.

No. No, no, no. The NCAA Tournament should and must be conducted without the Georgetown Hoyas. Choosing an unusually strong set of teams to beat you should not qualify a team for the NCAA tournament.

[RoyalBlue08]

I think BC will be fine if they beat Ga Tech...Miami might have just sunk their ship though.

I think nights like tonight should really put to rest the whole Big East vs the ACC arguement. Whether they like to admitt it or not, there are nights off in the Big East. Eventually you get to play Depaul or Rutgers or St. Johns or South Florida who have little to no talent and are pretty easy wins. In the ACC the "nights off" are teams like GA Tech and NC State and UVA..teams not performing well in conference, but teams with talent that they would love to have at the previously mentioned Big East schools. The bottom of the ACC is dangerous (just wait for the crazy upsets in Atlanta!), the bottom of the Big East is downright weak. No question the toughest conference top to bottom is the ACC!

[BD80]

No. No, no, no. The NCAA Tournament should and must be conducted without the Georgetown Hoyas. Choosing an unusually strong set of teams to beat you should not qualify a team for the NCAA tournament.

No GTown, no Notre Dame, no Florida, no Kentucky, no Arizona, no Indiana.

There should be some extra room in the tourney this year.

[Bob Green]

My views on the number of tournament bids the ACC receives are a little different. I believe it is better for the conference, in the long run, to receive less bids but have all the teams who go dancing perform better. Therefore, I hope we receive only six bids but all six teams win their first round game. I desire to see at least four ACC teams in the Sweet 16 and two in the Final Four.

If we send nine teams dancing, but two or three lose their first game, what has the conference actually accomplished?

Duke, UNC, Wake Forest, Clemson, FSU, and Maryland are my six choices. Though I realize BC is the more likely sixth bid.

[Reddevil]

My views on the number of tournament bids the ACC receives are a little different. I believe it is better for the conference, in the long run, to receive less bids but have all the teams who go dancing perform better. Therefore, I hope we receive only six bids but all six teams win their first round game. I desire to see at least four ACC teams in the Sweet 16 and two in the Final Four.

This is exactly what I was thinking AFTER last nights results. We always fall for the number of bids argument this time of year as though that is going to be the ultimate measure of strength, but the performance in the tournament is really what matters (and generates the most $$). Getting more bids does not settle any argument over which conference is stronger, but getting more teams into the sweet 16 and beyond does. We all know the ACC is strongest top to bottom, so why care about those that do not recognize this? Also, before we start thinking of the other ACC members (except unc) as brethren, there is a matter to be settled in Atlanta.

[feldspar]

--Jason "what a pity. It looked so promising a little while ago" Evans
Agreed.

Last night was not good. :(

[arnie]

Agreed.

Last night was not good. :(

If BC does not beat GA T, there is possibility we may only get 5 teams in. VPI and MD could still loose out as well as BC. Then I don't see why any of those teams get in. At least as another poster mentioned, our teams "should" do well in the 1st round.