PDA

View Full Version : Memphis and number 1



dukelifer
03-02-2009, 08:33 PM
It is hard to know what might happen- but it seems less likely for Memphis to lose in the next couple of weeks than any of the three teams ahead of them. If that holds true- Memphis could be the number 1 team heading into the tourney and a number 1 seed- but who have they beaten this year? It will be interesting to see how this plays out- but I doubt there is anyone who believes that they would be undefeated in the ACC, Big 12 or Big East- yet they could end up number 1- unless a team ahead of them wins out.

pfrduke
03-02-2009, 09:02 PM
It is hard to know what might happen- but it seems less likely for Memphis to lose in the next couple of weeks than any of the three teams ahead of them. If that holds true- Memphis could be the number 1 team heading into the tourney and a number 1 seed- but who have they beaten this year? It will be interesting to see how this plays out- but I doubt there is anyone who believes that they would be undefeated in the ACC, Big 12 or Big East- yet they could end up number 1- unless a team ahead of them wins out.

The potentially more interesting scenario would be if Memphis (perhaps by default) ends up #1 in the polls but a #2 seed in the tourney. If, for example, UConn loses in the big east title game, and UNC loses to Duke and then makes the ACC championship game, it's conceivable that Memphis could pass them for the top spot in the polls. But I still think they'd have only the 5th (or 6th, or 7th, depending how other things shake out) best case for a 1 seed.

CDu
03-02-2009, 09:03 PM
It is hard to know what might happen- but it seems less likely for Memphis to lose in the next couple of weeks than any of the three teams ahead of them. If that holds true- Memphis could be the number 1 team heading into the tourney and a number 1 seed- but who have they beaten this year? It will be interesting to see how this plays out- but I doubt there is anyone who believes that they would be undefeated in the ACC, Big 12 or Big East- yet they could end up number 1- unless a team ahead of them wins out.

Well, I'm quite sure that Memphis wouldn't go undefeated in the ACC or Big East, or likely the Big 10 either (though perhaps the Big 12). But then again that isn't a criteria for being a number 1 seed. UNC is currently sitting on a 1 seed, and they have 3 ACC losses. Pitt also has 3 conference losses.

Memphis has a shot at the #1 seed if the others falter because they just don't have any bad losses. They don't have a lot of great wins (they beat Tennessee at Tennessee and they beat Gonzaga at Gonzaga). Those are nice wins. Their losses (all early, obviously) were @Georgetown, vs Syracuse, and vs Xavier. None of those are bad losses.

Do I think they'd be in contention for a #1 seed if they weren't in C-USA? It's hard to say. They've walloped all the teams they're supposed to wallop, so maybe they have gelled after losing so much talent from last year's team.

DukieBoy
03-02-2009, 09:39 PM
The potentially more interesting scenario would be if Memphis (perhaps by default) ends up #1 in the polls but a #2 seed in the tourney. If, for example, UConn loses in the big east title game, and UNC loses to Duke and then makes the ACC championship game, it's conceivable that Memphis could pass them for the top spot in the polls. But I still think they'd have only the 5th (or 6th, or 7th, depending how other things shake out) best case for a 1 seed.

That's what I was thinking. Has this ever happened before. I would assume the selection committee doesn't pay much attention to the polls, but it would definitely bring up questioning about the polls if someone is ranked #1 and doesn't get a #1 seed in the tourney.

brevity
03-02-2009, 09:45 PM
Here's a hypothetical. Imagine all of the following happen:

1. Memphis wins out.
2. Connecticut loses to Pitt this week, but wins the Big East tourney.
3. UNC loses to Duke this week, but wins the ACC tourney.
4. Oklahoma wins out.

You'd have a situation where Memphis probably moves into #1 (at least in the coaches' poll), but might fall short of a top seed. Connecticut, UNC, and Oklahoma are getting 1 seeds, and so will Pitt, by virtue of sweeping the Big East champion.

The spoiler here is Louisville, which is actually ahead of Pitt in the Big East standings, and could win the regular season title outright if Connecticut loses this week. If they do that and make the Big East tourney final, or tie with Connecticut in the regular season and win the tourney, they could take the top seed away from Pitt.

wolfpackdevil
03-02-2009, 09:46 PM
It is hard to know what might happen- but it seems less likely for Memphis to lose in the next couple of weeks than any of the three teams ahead of them. If that holds true- Memphis could be the number 1 team heading into the tourney and a number 1 seed- but who have they beaten this year? It will be interesting to see how this plays out- but I doubt there is anyone who believes that they would be undefeated in the ACC, Big 12 or Big East- yet they could end up number 1- unless a team ahead of them wins out.


I think Memphis is a very good team. They are the most athletics team in the country by far.

With the young talent they have, they will be very dangerous in the tournament.

And I do think they would be as good in the ACC. If they played Duke once, and Carolina twice, and 13 other ACC games, I do not think they would lose more than 3 or 4 games.

they would probably go 13-3 or 12-4 in the ACC.

CDu
03-02-2009, 09:56 PM
I think Memphis is a very good team. They are the most athletics team in the country by far.

With the young talent they have, they will be very dangerous in the tournament.

And I do think they would be as good in the ACC. If they played Duke once, and Carolina twice, and 13 other ACC games, I do not think they would lose more than 3 or 4 games.

they would probably go 13-3 or 12-4 in the ACC.

I'm not sure that they'd go 13-3, but I'd agree that they'd probably do no worse than 10-6 (and COULD go 12-4 or even 13-3, if things played out just right). They look like they've become a really good team. I'd put them on par with Duke - maybe better, maybe worse - in that they're probably right below the top four. That's just guessing, but that's the way I see it.

shadowfax336
03-02-2009, 11:28 PM
I haven't gotten the hype about Memphis. Just don't get it. Don't understand how they can be ranked higher than about #10 in the polls, don't understand how they could end up with better than a 3 seed in the NCAA tournament. Don't understand why anybody in their right minds would have voted them #1 in the nation this week.

a couple points:

1. Except for Gonzaga, who I also believe is highly suspect and has been moving all over the place all year rankings wise and just moved into the top 15 this week due to general attrition above them, Memphis hasn't played a single team ranked in the top 15 all year ( I know they beat Gonzaga, but thats nothing that Portland State, Utah, and Arizona can't claim)
2. The question about how Memphis would do in the Big East at least is fairly easy to examine, Memphis played 4 Big East teams, and went 2-2. So in other words they had as many Big East losses as UConn this season, with 13 less wins.
3. Their best 5 wins: Gonzaga, Cincinnati, @Tenessee UAB, @UAB

So basically they beat:
- an extremely inconsistent team that was highly ranked preseason, but whose best win is either Maryland, OK state, Tennessee or a Mills-less St Marys
- a middle of the pack Big East bubble team
- a decent but inconsistent SEC bubble team with major flaws
- and the second best C-USA team that has 20 wins, but the best of those was a gift-wrapped special from Arizona when the 'cats made 2 of the stupidest fouls I've seen in the final seconds.

4. On January 12 2009 Memphis was unranked. Since then they've beaten Gonzaga, UT, and a bunch of C-USA teams (and it should be noted that the UT win was a 2 point game, when UK, Ole Miss, and Gonzaga have all beaten them by double digits) Thats not a resume that makes me want to move a team from unranked to possible #1 seed.


Basically, I don't see what makes people think that Memphis is some spectacular team. I'm sure they'll do fine in the tournament, and I think they're one of the top 20 teams in the country. They're well coached, they play great D, and they have some talent. Anderson is an excellent defender, Evans seems to be having a great season. But... I mean ya have to beat someone...

Kfanarmy
03-03-2009, 01:12 AM
I'm not sure that they'd go 13-3, but I'd agree that they'd probably do no worse than 10-6 (and COULD go 12-4 or even 13-3, if things played out just right). They look like they've become a really good team. I'd put them on par with Duke - maybe better, maybe worse - in that they're probably right below the top four. That's just guessing, but that's the way I see it.

They might make it the first year, but once familiarity set in, competitive recruiting in the same conference, and a much tougher schedule, I think they'd settle middle of the pack.

CDu
03-03-2009, 07:41 AM
They might make it the first year, but once familiarity set in, competitive recruiting in the same conference, and a much tougher schedule, I think they'd settle middle of the pack.

Well, I think that would depend on the talent coming in. Last year's Memphis team would most certainly not have been in the middle of the pack. If they kept bringing teams with this year's level of talent back year after year, then perhaps you're right. But I suspect that Calipari will keep loading up on great recruiting classes. Of course, this is all pure speculation. It's hard enough to guess where Memphis would rate this year.

BoozerWasFouled
03-03-2009, 02:23 PM
If Memphis claims a #1 it will be the best chance a #16 has had in a while.

dukelifer
03-03-2009, 02:48 PM
If Memphis claims a #1 it will be the best chance a #16 has had in a while.

It is also a region where you want to be the number 2 team.

dukelifer
03-13-2009, 06:37 AM
It is hard to know what might happen- but it seems less likely for Memphis to lose in the next couple of weeks than any of the three teams ahead of them. If that holds true- Memphis could be the number 1 team heading into the tourney and a number 1 seed- but who have they beaten this year? It will be interesting to see how this plays out- but I doubt there is anyone who believes that they would be undefeated in the ACC, Big 12 or Big East- yet they could end up number 1- unless a team ahead of them wins out.
If UNC loses in the first round and Louisville loses the next game- what does it mean for Memphis. Who gets that number 1 final ranking? The NCAA selection committee is sweating this one- as it is hard to justify a number 1 seed to them. Could Michigan State, Duke or Wake get that spot?

yancem
03-13-2009, 08:25 AM
If UNC loses in the first round and Louisville loses the next game- what does it mean for Memphis. Who gets that number 1 final ranking? The NCAA selection committee is sweating this one- as it is hard to justify a number 1 seed to them. Could Michigan State, Duke or Wake get that spot?

With both UConn and Pitt bowing out of the Big East tourney, and Oklahoma and Kansas also bowing out of the Big 12, things could get very interesting. I don't think that Duke has much of a chance to grab a 1 seed but Wake, Michigan St and Louisville all have a chance if they can win their respective tournaments.

feldspar
03-13-2009, 08:57 AM
If Wake can get a #1 seed, so can we.

I posited this scenario last week, and although I found it incredibly unlikely, it's actually starting to happen:

Oklahoma, UConn, Carolina, Louisville, Pitt, Memphis and Michigan State are all ahead of us in line to pick up a #1 seed.

So far, 3 of those have lost, early in their respective conference tournaments.

Michigan and Memphis are lowest on the totem pole. Therefore, we can afford for them to win a few conference tourney games. Louisville as well.

If two out of those three teams fall before their conference finals, and Duke wins the ACC, I think we have a very strong case for a #1 seed along with UConn, Pitt and Carolina. Louisville could take Pitt's or UConn's place if they win the Big East. But we would still need Memphis and Michigan State to lose.

How is the committee going to give ALL or even 3 of the #1 seeds to teams that didn't win their conference tournaments? I don't see that happening.

Highlander
03-13-2009, 09:00 AM
With both UConn and Pitt bowing out of the Big East tourney, and Oklahoma and Kansas also bowing out of the Big 12, things could get very interesting. I don't think that Duke has much of a chance to grab a 1 seed but Wake, Michigan St and Louisville all have a chance if they can win their respective tournaments.

I don't see how Wake has any better or worse chance than we do. They are ranked #8 and #9 nationally, and tied for second in the conference. Wake did beat UNC, but they also have some terrible losses (like GTech). Duke's worst loss is probably splitting w/ Michigan or @ BC. If either Duke or Wake win the tournament, they would have roughly the same record and resume.

Why do you think Wake has a shot at a #1 but Duke does not?

captmojo
03-13-2009, 09:43 AM
Of all people, Doug Gotlieb is in Duke's corner, should the Devils win out.

gumbomoop
03-13-2009, 10:11 AM
Fun to speculate as Selection Sunday Madness approaches.

I've little idea how the Selection Committee makes its last-minute decisions and changes, but they got their work cut out for them, given big, big upsets so far.

Here's a scenario, with some assumptions:

"Ranking" for seeds:
1- UNC - as long as they beat VT, and even if lose, if Lawson doesn't play
2- UL - as long as they beat Villa
3- UConn
4- Memphis - as long as they win C-USA, pretty safe bet
5- Pitt - I think they still deserve a 1, but will Committee?
6- Mich St - maybe too low if they win Big Ten
7- Duke/Wake - assuming that one, and depending on who, gets to ACC final
8- Okla -some doubts by now about how solid they are

Regional 1-4 seeds:

Boston - UConn, Mich St, Duke/Wake, Purdue/LSU/Tenn????
Memphis - UNC, Okla, Gonzaga, Villa/Syracuse
Indianapolis - UL, Duke/Wake, Kansas, Xavier
Phoenix - Memphis, Pitt, UCLA, Villa/Syracuse

Fire away.

Highlander
03-13-2009, 10:32 AM
Fun to speculate as Selection Sunday Madness approaches.

I've little idea how the Selection Committee makes its last-minute decisions and changes, but they got their work cut out for them, given big, big upsets so far.

Here's a scenario, with some assumptions:

"Ranking" for seeds:
1- UNC - as long as they beat VT, and even if lose, if Lawson doesn't play
2- UL - as long as they beat Villa
3- UConn
4- Memphis - as long as they win C-USA, pretty safe bet
5- Pitt - I think they still deserve a 1, but will Committee?
6- Mich St - maybe too low if they win Big Ten
7- Duke/Wake - assuming that one, and depending on who, gets to ACC final
8- Okla -some doubts by now about how solid they are

Regional 1-4 seeds:

Boston - UConn, Mich St, Duke/Wake, Purdue/LSU/Tenn????
Memphis - UNC, Okla, Gonzaga, Villa/Syracuse
Indianapolis - UL, Duke/Wake, Kansas, Xavier
Phoenix - Memphis, Pitt, UCLA, Villa/Syracuse

Fire away.

I would love to see Pitt, Louisville, or Michigan St. in UNC's bracket as the #2 instead of Oklahoma. I see Oklahoma and Memphis as the least dangerous top 8 teams right now. Still, a Blake Griffin vs. Tyler battle is intriguing. Giving that Duke played Xavier already this year, I could see a different #4 (and you could use the same argument to keep Mich St. out of UNC's bracket).

It's a reasonable and fair projection, which is probably why it will never happen :)

gumbomoop
03-13-2009, 10:58 AM
I would love to see Pitt, Louisville, or Michigan St. in UNC's bracket as the #2 instead of Oklahoma. I see Oklahoma and Memphis as the least dangerous top 8 teams right now. Still, a Blake Griffin vs. Tyler battle is intriguing. Giving that Duke played Xavier already this year, I could see a different #4 (and you could use the same argument to keep Mich St. out of UNC's bracket).

I'm with you in preferring a tough draw for UNC, but my "logic" was that if UNC was overall #1, and if Okla was overall #8 [and I think the Committee does something like this at least for the 1-2 seeds], then they'd be together.

If UConn or Pitt drop to #2 [and I personally still put them at 1's, but I don't know about the Committee], I see no chance they'd be in UNC's region.

Now, I could definitely see Memphis as a #2 in UNC's region, but I think of Okla and Memphis as comparable. Truth is, once again it's hard to judge Memphis.

One more of my truths: I think UNC is best team as long as Lawson is healthy. I cannot explain their strange NCAA losses last 2 years, but do not anticipate a repeat of that. Who has best chance to beat them in NCAA? Imo, in this order: Pitt, UConn, Duke, maybe Wake, maybe inconsistent UL. No one else, imo.