PDA

View Full Version : Kentucky on the bubble ?



House G
02-28-2009, 06:02 PM
Kentucky got beat at home today by LSU. Kentucky has been to seventeen straight NCAA tournaments. At this point in time, their resume appears suspect for making the tournament. Which of these SEC dogs, if any, should get in?http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=88

Olympic Fan
02-28-2009, 07:08 PM
Kentucky is really an interesting bubble team. Let's look at their resume.

They start with a 19-10 record (after today's LSU loss), which looks pretty good. However, their RPI going into today's game was 61, which is usually too low to qualify for an at large bid (the normal cutoff line is usually in the low 40s ... although there have been exceptions).

Their SOS is a very mediocre 74th, although that's largely because the SEC is weaker this year than it's been in modern times.

The have one bad loss -- the opener at home against VMI. They have four top 50 wins -- although they beat West Virginia back in December when the Mountaineers were without two top players. The do have home wins over Florida and Tennessee, plus a road win at Tennessee.

That's it in their favor ... working against them is their recent stretch of 3-6 in their last nine games, including three home losses (to LSU, Mississippi State and South Carolina).

They finish with a near certain win at home against a truly terrible Georgia team, then with a probable loss on the road at Florida.

That would leave them at 20-11 going into the SEC Tourney ... they would need a very strong run in that to qualify.

oh, one other thing ... if it's close, they have a homecourt loss to ACC bubble team Miami. Although Kentucky's record is slightly better, the 'Canes have a better RPI and a much better SOS ... plus a head-to-head win in Rupp Arena.

I'm not saying Kentucky is out -- but over on their boards, their fans are arguing about whether or not they shoulod accept an NIT bid or turn it down (on the theory that they're too good for the NIT).

House G
02-28-2009, 07:12 PM
Kentucky is really an interesting bubble team. Let's look at their resume.

They start with a 19-10 record (after today's LSU loss), which looks pretty good. However, their RPI going into today's game was 61, which is usually too low to qualify for an at large bid (the normal cutoff line is usually in the low 40s ... although there have been exceptions).

Their SOS is a very mediocre 74th, although that's largely because the SEC is weaker this year than it's been in modern times.

The have one bad loss -- the opener at home against VMI. They have four top 50 wins -- although they beat West Virginia back in December when the Mountaineers were without two top players. The do have home wins over Florida and Tennessee, plus a road win at Tennessee.

That's it in their favor ... working against them is their recent stretch of 3-6 in their last nine games, including three home losses (to LSU, Mississippi State and South Carolina).

They finish with a near certain win at home against a truly terrible Georgia team, then with a probable loss on the road at Florida.

That would leave them at 20-11 going into the SEC Tourney ... they would need a very strong run in that to qualify.

oh, one other thing ... if it's close, they have a homecourt loss to ACC bubble team Miami. Although Kentucky's record is slightly better, the 'Canes have a better RPI and a much better SOS ... plus a head-to-head win in Rupp Arena.

I'm not saying Kentucky is out -- but over on their boards, their fans are arguing about whether or not they shoulod accept an NIT bid or turn it down (on the theory that they're too good for the NIT).
Do you have any thoughts on Florida or Tennessee?

Olympic Fan
03-01-2009, 12:03 PM
Do you have any thoughts on Florida or Tennessee?

I think both Florida is safely in, but will be seeded in the lower half of the draw (9th or below). LSU will be the top SEC seed, based on a superficially spectacular record -- 25-4 looks great until you realize that: 21 of those 29 games came at home and one more on a neutral site; they are 15-1 against teams over 100 in the RPI -- 0-3 against top 25.

Still, they'll get in (Palm has them as a sixth seed).

Florida is 21-7, and they have a pretty good non-conference win over Pac 10 champ Washington on a neutral site. But it does say something that their fifth best win this season was a last-second homecourt victory over NC State.

Tennessee is just 17-10, but they have five top 50 wins, including Marquette and Georgetown on a neutral court.They are No. 29 in the latest RPI, which is good. Their biggest problem is that their next two games are at Florida and at South Carolina.

I think Tennessee, South Carolina (20-7, 44 RPI) and Kentucky are vying for the third and maybe fourth RPI bid from the SEC. As I said, a lousy conference this year, but their commissioner is on the selection committee and that ought to help them at crunch time.

PS Kentucky dropped to 66 on the RPI after the LSU loss. That is a serious reach for the selection committee ... they'll have to get it up. Worse, Tennessee dropped from No. 25 to No. 29 over the weekend, robbing the Wildcats of two top 25 wins.