ACC Bubble Watch

[ice-9]

Eight ACC teams in the NCAA tournament is a very real possibility!

First, we have the locks:
- UNC
- Duke
- Clemson
- Wake Forest

Then we have the near-locks:
- Boston College
- FSU

While FSU has been lauded by some as a lock, what's interesting is that there's a decent chance they end their season 8-8. They are 8-5 but with three games: Clemson, @ Duke, and a desperate VT. Of those three games, FSU will be favored only against VT, but anything can happen given VT will be playing for their tournament lives. Witness: Clemson vs VT at Clemson. If FSU wins one of the three, then I think they are truly at lock status no matter what happens in the tourney. If they lose all three, they may have to win one in the ACC tournament.

With BC's key win against FSU, BC is likely safely in. They have two remaining games @ NC State and home with GT. BC should end the season 10-6 which is a pretty good record all things considered and likely a lock.

Precariously on the bubble:
- Miami
- Maryland
- Virginia Tech

Now this is where it gets interesting. The ACC needs 2 of the 3 to be able to claim 8 in the NCAA tournament. It's very possible that all three teams will end up with an 8-8 record in the ACC, though I think ultimately only Miami will do it.

Miami is 6-8 but is favored in their final two games: @ GT and home with NC State. Two wins there and a win in the ACC tournament should get them safely in given their strong computer numbers.

Maryland with their marquee UNC win is 6-7 but has a more difficult finishing stretch than Miami: @ NC State, home with Wake, @ UVA. The games against inferior opponents are on the road while the ranked opponent is at home. Maryland could go 3-0 or 0-3 in this stretch...it'll be interesting to see what happens.

Virginia Tech's loss to UVA is costly. A win at UVA could've assured VT of an 8-8 record, but now, to get there, they'll have to defeat two of Duke, UNC and @ FSU. Not easy at all.

The lone darkhorse in this race:
- NC State

We've been talking about NC State as a doormat, but they have a chance -- albeit a small one-- to get to 8-8 in the ACC. To do so they have to defeat Maryland, BC and @ Miami. Hard, but possible.


Is an 8-8 record enough to get an NCAA tourney bid? For teams with marquee wins and/or strong computer numbers like FSU and Miami, an 8-8 record will likely be enough to push them through. For teams like VT, however, a win in the ACC tourney may be necessary.

Fortunately, even in that scenario, those bubble teams will likely get that extra win. In the first round, UVA, GT and NC State have wins to give away. The #8 and #9 team have to play each other (Maryland vs. VT?), and the winner of that will get an extra win.

Overall, we're looking at the top 4 as locks and another 4 who will likely end up with a 9-7 or 8-8 record with at least one win in the ACC tournament. 4 + 4 = 8, a record number.

This exercise demonstrates the formula for maximizing conference bids:
- Strong middle that can steal games from the top
- Weak bottom; the weaker the better

The irony is that the ACC has been the opposite for so many seasons. The ACC is a traditionally top heavy conference with relatively even teams middle to bottom. This is in contrast to conferences like the Big East, Big 10 and Pac-10, which tend to have strong middle teams, so-so top teams and extremely poor bottoms.

[CDu]

Virginia Tech's loss to UVA is costly. A win at UVA could've assured VT of an 8-8 record, but now, to get there, they'll have to defeat two of Duke, UNC and @ FSU. Not easy at all.

VT is 7-6 in the ACC. So to get to 8-8, they just need to win one of those games. Now you might argue that they need to get to 9-7 (which may or may not be the case). But 8-8 is just one win away. And with wins @Wake and over one of Duke, UNC, or @FSU 8-8 may be enough, along with a win in the ACC tournament.

[davekay1971]

I love State, but if they finish 8-8 in the ACC, they're still not in. They'd have to win probably 2 in the ACC tournament to make it. They played some good non-conference teams close (Davidson, Florida, Marquette), but lost those games, and their only marquee in-conference win is against Wake, which won't resonate with voters as well as a win over Duke or UNC would. I'd love to see them make it. They've played better as the season has gone on, they played Wake very close last night...but they'd have to win about 5 in a row from this point on to have a shot at getting in.

[4decadedukie]

It will be VERY interesting -- and instructive -- to observe how the selection committee deals with this year’s Big East and ACC “dominance.” If those two conference receive 12+ at-large invitation (in addition to two league championship bids), what is left for the excellent mid-majors and for the traditionally strong conferences that have “underachieved” in 2008-2009? What, if anything, are the immediate and long-term implications for local/regional fan support beyond the East Coast? How might this adversely influence early-round television audiences and future revenues? I understand that the Committee’s true responsibility is narrower than these issues, but the "corporate" NCAA certainly is concerned with the broader questions.

[eddiehaskell]

Locks: UNC, Duke, WFU, BC, FSU

I think one other team will get in and it'll mostly likely be Maryland or Miami.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I'm agreeing with Eddie. I will be suprised if we get 6 in, and very surprised if we are over that. As with every year, once the conference starts beating itself up you can't escape the records below .500. It will take an amazing run by a sub .500 team in the ACC tourney to get in.

[rasputin]

Locks: UNC, Duke, WFU, BC, FSU

I think one other team will get in and it'll mostly likely be Maryland or Miami.

Where's Clemson? They are a lock, with UNC, Duke, Wake, and Florida State. I think at least 2 more get in, most likely BC and Miami. Va.Tech and Maryland have a lot of work to do.

[CDu]

Locks: UNC, Duke, WFU, BC, FSU

I think one other team will get in and it'll mostly likely be Maryland or Miami.

You forgot Clemson in the "lock" category. I think that those six are probably safe, but "lock" status is probably a bit strong. I wouldn't call them bubble teams, but they could sneak back onto the bubble with poor play down the stretch.

And I think we'll get at least one more, with an outside shot at two. But it's very possible that the three bubble teams will bump heads with each other. I think we'll probably wind up with 7, with an outside shot at 8.

[CDu]

I'm agreeing with Eddie. I will be suprised if we get 6 in, and very surprised if we are over that. As with every year, once the conference starts beating itself up you can't escape the records below .500. It will take an amazing run by a sub .500 team in the ACC tourney to get in.

With 6 teams already at 8 wins in conference, I'll be shocked if we don't get at least 6 in. I'll be surprised if we have less than 7 teams get in. I think we'll have at least 7 get to .500 in the ACC. That's no guarantee that 7 get in, but it means we won't need a sub-.500 team to sneak in to get 7.

[eddiehaskell]

You forgot Clemson in the "lock" category. I think that those six are probably safe, but "lock" status is probably a bit strong. I wouldn't call them bubble teams, but they could sneak back onto the bubble with poor play down the stretch.Doh! I meant to list them.

But yeah, if FSU or BC finish the season without another win they could lose their lock status. 9 ACC wins should be an automatic invite...

[CDu]

Doh! I meant to list them.

But yeah, if FSU or BC finish the season without another win they could lose their lock status. 9 ACC wins should be an automatic invite...

Agreed - especially considering the profiles being discussed:
- BC would have 9 wins and wins over @UNC and Duke.
- FSU would have 9 wins, a strong RPI, and wins over @Clemson, Cal, Cincy, Florida, Miami, and @VT and no bad losses.
- Clemson would have 9 wins, a strong RPI, and wins over Duke and @Illinois.
- Wake would have 9 wins, a strong RPI, and wins over Duke, @Clemson and UNC.

Ultimately, I think those teams would all get in with 8 as well, but BC and (maybe) FSU would be sweating a bit.

[eddiehaskell]

So if they let a 7th (or 8th) team in, it will likely come down to Miami, Maryland and VT. These 3 are so close which makes it hard to definitely say one should make it over the other.

Maryland has beat Mich St and UNC. They also beat VT and split with Miami. With the way they've been playing, they could easily take out WF.

[jv001]

Not saying this is going to happen but what if VT beats Duke @ home because Elliot or Jon gets in foul trouble and we don't have Nolan this weekend. The twerps are battling VT and eveyone else for a berth in the tournament and because of "the pick" set on Nolan VT gets in over maryland. I would have to say, serves em right. I'm still upset over neal's smirk after he ko'd Nolan and the md fans whooping it up while Nolan lay on the court. Go Duke!

[ice-9]

VT is 7-6 in the ACC. So to get to 8-8, they just need to win one of those games. Now you might argue that they need to get to 9-7 (which may or may not be the case). But 8-8 is just one win away. And with wins @Wake and over one of Duke, UNC, or @FSU 8-8 may be enough, along with a win in the ACC tournament.

Oops! You are right sir. Of the 9 teams that can get to 8-8 or better in the ACC, I do agree that VT has the lowest chance of getting a bid. They may need two wins in the ACC tournament.

P.S. SHANE BATTIER WOOOOOT~! I'm not posting another message lol.

[CDu]

Not saying this is going to happen but what if VT beats Duke @ home because Elliot or Jon gets in foul trouble and we don't have Nolan this weekend. The twerps are battling VT and eveyone else for a berth in the tournament and because of "the pick" set on Nolan VT gets in over maryland. I would have to say, serves em right. I'm still upset over neal's smirk after he ko'd Nolan and the md fans whooping it up while Nolan lay on the court. Go Duke!

If VT beats Duke (or UNC) they are probably in solid shape. That'd give them two "strong" wins and would get them to 8 ACC wins. Their RPI doesn't help, so winning one in the ACC tourney is a must (and two would really help). But they'd look a lot better. Beating one of those two and @FSU gets them to lock status, in my opinion.

And while I wouldn't favor VT in either of those two home games, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won one of them. VT is a much better team at home, and they have the variety of weapons (when playing well) that can give both Duke and UNC trouble.

[ice-9]

Updates on the bubble watch:

- FSU is now a lock with their impressive victory over Clemson. They only have one bad loss against Northwestern and have some nice wins: @Cincinnati, @Cal, Florida and a season sweep of Clemson. They're playing for seeding at this point.

- VT is in danger now of getting their bubble popped. At 7-7, they MUST win one of UNC and @FSU to even remain in contention. However, I think they're out. For them to be in they'd have to win the remaining two plus one in the ACC tournament, or one in the regular season and two in the tournament. I.e. they need to get to 20 wins for the season. Not likely gonna happen, but it'd be great if VT can steal one from UNC. :)

Locks: UNC, Duke, Wake, Clemson, FSU
Likely in: BC
Work to do: Miami, Maryland...VT by the slimmest margin
Darkhorse: NC
Popped: UVA, GT

Still possible for the ACC to get 8 into the tournament though 7 is the more likely scenario.

[throatybeard]

All of this is completely meaningless if you aren't looking at the whole field. Some vague notion of what's good enough doesn't matter at all. What matters is the entire field, in assessing who gets 34 at-larges. (And whatever crazy steals of automatic bids occur on conference tournament weekend).

[ice-9]

"Completely meaningless" seems a bit harsh.

And though not explicitly stated, I'm sure any and all discussion talk of bubble teams take into account what's happening outside of the ACC, including others' assessment of the entire field (e.g. Bracketology). Surely it's not necessary to analyze every single team in college basketball to have a meaningful discussion of ACC bubble teams on a Duke message board.

Finally, I challenge you to identify what comments are based on "vague notions." Let's get deeper into your blanket missive.

[Bob Green]

All of this is completely meaningless if you aren't looking at the whole field. Some vague notion of what's good enough doesn't matter at all. What matters is the entire field, in assessing who gets 34 at-larges. (And whatever crazy steals of automatic bids occur on conference tournament weekend).


"Completely meaningless" seems a bit harsh.

And though not explicitly stated, I'm sure any and all discussion talk of bubble teams take into account what's happening outside of the ACC, including others' assessment of the entire field (e.g. Bracketology). Surely it's not necessary to analyze every single team in college basketball to have a meaningful discussion of ACC bubble teams on a Duke message board.

Finally, I challenge you to identify what comments are based on "vague notions." Let's get deeper into your blanket missive.

POTW by jyuwono. I mean we wouldn't want to actually discuss basketball on a basketball website would we?

[-jk]

Let's take it easy, folks.

This is a basketball site. We can legitimately discuss ACC bubbles, and at the same time recognize that bubbles don't hold up well a vacuum. Without getting snippy.

-jk

[allenmurray]

Finally, I challenge you to identify what comments are based on "vague notions." Let's get deeper into your blanket missive.

Why? I can't figure out why you felt the need to do that. Are you sure you are on the right board? This isn't IC.

[OldPhiKap]

VT is kind of staggering down the finish and, if they lose to FSU and UNC, it will make for a pretty poor finish. Absent a decent run in the tourney, I think they're out.

[ice-9]

Why? I can't figure out why you felt the need to do that. Are you sure you are on the right board? This isn't IC.

Perhaps my tone was snippy, but it wasn't meant to be a personal attack. Apologies if it was taken that way.

However, throatybeard did imply that the conversation of this thread was based on vague notions, and therefore invalid. Hard to take that without some kind of a challenge, especially given the threadstarter is me. :)

[Cavlaw]

I'm not sure where this "dark horse" love for NCSU is coming from, but they are not going to Dance unless they win the ACC tourney. They're 15-11, with only one quality win (against Wake at home). Their RPI is terrible (90th and sinking even before the loss to Wake). They can sweep the rest of the regular season, and they still have to win the ACC tourney to get in.

[ice-9]

I'm not sure where this "dark horse" love for NCSU is coming from, but they are not going to Dance unless they win the ACC tourney. They're 15-11, with only one quality win (against Wake at home). Their RPI is terrible (90th and sinking even before the loss to Wake). They can sweep the rest of the regular season, and they still have to win the ACC tourney to get in.

If NC State wins out, their profile will look like the following:

Good wins: Wake Forest, sweep of Miami, Maryland, BC

Bad losses: None. Every team they lost to, with the possible exception of VT, will likely make the NCAA tourney. And the VT loss was @VT in overtime. Further, their losses to Marquette and @Florida out of conference were determined by only one possession each.

Record in last 10: 7-3. Those 3 losses were all on the road against UNC, Wake and VT.

NC State's biggest problem is their horrible RPI, currently at 90. But if they close out with three straight wins that number will no doubt improve. And if they were to win another two or three in the ACC tournament? Their RPI may jump to respectable territory.

Something else to think about -- KenPom actually favors NC State versus Maryland and BC with a 66% and 63% chance of winning respectively. Rankings according to KenPom:
61: BC
66: NC State
70: Maryland
73: VT

The upshot to all this is that if NC State can win their remaining three games, they would have a profile of a decent team that's 8-8 in the ACC with no bad losses, but one with a really, really bad RPI. But let's say they do all that and they win two in the ACC tournament, bringing their overall record to 20-12. And let's say their RPI is something borderline at 40 to 50. Are they worthy of an NCAA bid? It's still probably not enough, but they'd be in contention.

Now how likely is any of this? Not at all, which is why I labeled NC State as a darkhorse. :P

[ice-9]

Postscript: If NC State defeats both Miami and Maryland, both team's chances of making the NCAA tournament are greatly diminished.

Miami would end up 7-9 at best and swept by NC State. Not good.

Maryland would have to defeat Wake and @UVA to get to 8-8. If Maryland loses to either team, they'll end the season at 7-9 and likely out of the NCAA tournament.

If neither team makes the NCAA tournament, the door opens for NC State just that little bit more. And if the dominoes fall elsewhere outside the ACC in NC State's favor...you never know. If NC State takes care of business, there's a chance.

[CDu]

Let's leave aside the definition of a "darkhorse." If NC State wins out, their profile will look like the following:

Good wins: Wake Forest, sweep of Miami, Maryland, BC

Bad losses: None. Every team they lost to, with the possible exception of VT, will likely make the NCAA tourney. And the VT loss was @VT in overtime. Further, their losses to Marquette and Florida out of conference were determined by only one possession each.

Record in last 10: 7-3. Those 3 losses were all on the road against UNC, Wake and VT.

NC State's biggest problem is their horrible RPI, currently at 90. But if they close out with three straight wins that number will no doubt improve. And if they were to win another two or three in the ACC tournament? Their RPI may jump to respectable territory.

Something else to think about -- rankings according to KenPom:
61: BC
66: NC State
70: Maryland
73: VT

The upshot to all this is that if NC State can win their remaining three games, they would have a profile of a decent team but one with a really, really bad RPI. But let's say they do all that and they win two in the ACC tournament, bringing their overall record to 20-12. And let's say their RPI is something borderline at 40 to 50. Are they worthy of an NCAA bid? It's still probably not enough, but they'd be in contention.

I think we have five teams safely in at this point (UNC, Duke, Wake, FSU, and Clemson), with BC probably needing only another win (and avoiding a Thursday ACC loss) to be safe. After that, it's anybody's guess.

Va Tech could really use a win over UNC this week. Without that, their resume doesn't look that great even with a win over FSU to end the season. They have some bad losses to account for.

The other three teams are in must-win territory:

- Miami should get to 8-8, but that may not be enough. They obviously can't afford a loss in either game this week, and they will need at least a win in the ACC tournament (if not two). And even then, they may be sweating bullets.

- Maryland still has a chance to make a strong case. If they can win tonight in Raleigh, then beat Wake at home and close with a win over suddenly-scrappy UVa, they'll be 9-7 in conference with an RPI probably in the 40s at that point and strong wins over UNC, Wake, and Michigan St, along with wins over Michigan, Va Tech, and Miami.

- I suspect that NC State will lose a game or two the rest of the way, making it a moot point. But I agree that they should (and would) be a legitimate bubble team if they win out.

Should be an interesting last week, starting tonight with the Maryland State game. It's a must-win for both teams at this point.

[CDu]

With the loss tonight, NC State can kiss any remaining at-large hopes goodbye.

Maryland got 33 and 5 assists from Greivis Vasquez, and kept their hopes alive. If they can beat Wake at home and knock off UVa, they would have a pretty strong argument for an at-large bid (9-7 in the ACC, wins over Michigan St, Michigan, UNC, Miami, VT, and Wake, and just the one bad loss).

[Olympic Fan]

Maryland really helped themselves with a road win at NC State.

Going into the final week of the regular season, I think we can agree that five teams are in (UNC, Duke, Wake, Clemson and FSU) and BC is very, very close -- they end with a home game against Georgia Tech that ought to be enough to get them in.

The leaves three contenders for a seventh (or eighth) spot:

-- Miami has by far the best RPI (in the low 40s) and top 10 SOS. But at 17-10, they need wins ... at Georgia Tech and NC State at home this week give them a chance to get to 19-10 (and 8-8 in the conference, although that is less important). One win in the ACC Tournament (and if they then lose on Friday, it will be to a top team so it won't be so bad). There will be a lot of teams with a record similar to 20-11 record, but I think with the high SOS and the decent RPI they get in.

-- Maryland is still alive and has won 4 of 6 ... They have great wins over UNC and Michigan State, plus Big Ten bubble team Michigan. But the record is 18-10 and the RPI is a little out of the normal at-large range, so they've still got work to do ... I'd say they need to beat Wake Forest at home this week (which would give them a third signature win), then finish up with a win at Virginia AND win a game or two in tourney.

-- Virginia Tech is hanging by a thread. No analysis -- they have to beat UNC Wednesday night to stay in the conversation. If they do that, we can start talking about what else they have to do. Lose to the Heels at home and go ahead and pencil them into the NIT field.

[davekay1971]

Maryland really helped themselves with a road win at NC State.

Going into the final week of the regular season, I think we can agree that five teams are in (UNC, Duke, Wake, Clemson and FSU) and BC is very, very close -- they end with a home game against Georgia Tech that ought to be enough to get them in.

The leaves three contenders for a seventh (or eighth) spot:

-- Miami has by far the best RPI (in the low 40s) and top 10 SOS. But at 17-10, they need wins ... at Georgia Tech and NC State at home this week give them a chance to get to 19-10 (and 8-8 in the conference, although that is less important). One win in the ACC Tournament (and if they then lose on Friday, it will be to a top team so it won't be so bad). There will be a lot of teams with a record similar to 20-11 record, but I think with the high SOS and the decent RPI they get in.

-- Maryland is still alive and has won 4 of 6 ... They have great wins over UNC and Michigan State, plus Big Ten bubble team Michigan. But the record is 18-10 and the RPI is a little out of the normal at-large range, so they've still got work to do ... I'd say they need to beat Wake Forest at home this week (which would give them a third signature win), then finish up with a win at Virginia AND win a game or two in tourney.

-- Virginia Tech is hanging by a thread. No analysis -- they have to beat UNC Wednesday night to stay in the conversation. If they do that, we can start talking about what else they have to do. Lose to the Heels at home and go ahead and pencil them into the NIT field.

Good analysis, IMHO. So, here's hoping Wake gives Maryland a thorough beat-down and Virginia puts the nail in the coffin. Normally, I would never root for an ACC team (other than UNC, of course) to not make the tournament. But Maryland has earned it.

As a NCSU fan, I have finally had to admit that their tournament chances are done. Hope they play well the last two games in preparation and then make a respectable run in the ACC tournament...unless they run into Duke.

[dukie8]

if bc gets in, which i think it will, it will get in despite a loss to harvard, which currently has an rpi of 248. i wonder what the worst loss (in terms of rpi) is for an at large team. bc also has wins against duke and unc, which currently are 2 and 3, respectively, in the rpi. i wonder what the greatest spread is for an at large team between it best win and worst loss. 246 has to be right up there.

[CDu]

A lot of bubble teams took a hit last night. Cincy lost to South Florida, which will be costly. Maryland lost to Wake, which puts them in an uncomfortable position for an at-large bid. And Georgetown, who had an argument (based on strength of schedule and quality wins) to get in despite an 8-10 Big East mark, lost (for their 11th in the Big East) against St John's. That should officially burst their at-large bubble.

It definitely opens the door for Miami and Va Tech to make their claims for a spot over the next two weeks.

[Olympic Fan]

Agree that Maryland took a hit last night ... they are not dead, but they left themselves with a lot to do, starting with a win in C'ville Saturday.

Tonight's three games all have NCAA implications:

(1) UNC at Va Tech -- it's an elimination game for VPI. A win doesn't get them in the field (although it helps big time), but a loss almost certainly stamps their ticket for the NIT.

(2) BC at NC State -- BC is in good shape, but could move into lock category with a win in Raleigh. They've got Ga Tech at home Saturday, so with a win, the Eagles should finish 22-9 and 10-6 in the ACC ... that's a lock. They are still in decent shape with a loss in Raleigh, but that would make the Tech game must win and might require a first-round tourney win too.

(3) Miami at Georgia Tech -- Miami has a great RPI and SOS, but they need the win at the ACC's worst team. They get State at home Saturday and with two more wins, they get to 19-10 and 8-8. That's right on the edge -- throw in a tourney win and I think they make it. But this is a team with NO margin for error.

BTW: Getting into the NIT isn't the lock it once was for ACC teams. NC State, at 15-12 is on the NIT bubble -- THEY need to win a couple more to be a viable NIT candidate.

[ice-9]

I don't think it's necessarily an elimination game for VT. If they lose to UNC but manage to win @FSU, that leaves them with an 8-8 record in the ACC. If they can win three games in the ACC tournament, beating an upper tier team in the process, I think they're in (assuming what happens in other conferences remain favorable). That will give them a 21-12 record and an 8-8 ACC record; historically, that's enough to get in. Even if they draw even with UNC and FSU and win only two in the ACC tourney, they still have a shot.

[CDu]

A really bad couple of nights for the bubble teams in the ACC. All four bubble teams (BC, Maryland, VT, and Miami) took losses.

For BC, it's not the end of the world. They can still get to 9 wins with a win at home against Ga Tech. But they didn't do themselves any favors tonight. They could have eliminated any doubt with a couple of wins to close out the regular season. Instead, they'll be sweating a bit.

Maryland and VT are in deeper bubble shape, and each had an opportunity to make a big statement this week against top-tier teams. Neither one got it done. Both still have opportunities though. If they can get to 8-8, they have a shot (especially with a couple of ACC tourney wins).

Miami may have just sealed their fate. They're now guaranteed to have a losing record in the ACC regular season, and aside from their wins over Wake and FSU (both at home), they just don't have that impressive a resume. They look like they'll be on the outside looking in, barring a huge run in the ACC tournament.

[JasonEvans]

A really bad couple of nights for the bubble teams in the ACC. All four bubble teams (BC, Maryland, VT, and Miami) took losses.

For BC, it's not the end of the world. They can still get to 9 wins with a win at home against Ga Tech. But they didn't do themselves any favors tonight. They could have eliminated any doubt with a couple of wins to close out the regular season. Instead, they'll be sweating a bit.

Maryland and VT are in deeper bubble shape, and each had an opportunity to make a big statement this week against top-tier teams. Neither one got it done. Both still have opportunities though. If they can get to 8-8, they have a shot (especially with a couple of ACC tourney wins).

Miami may have just sealed their fate. They're now guaranteed to have a losing record in the ACC regular season, and aside from their wins over Wake and FSU (both at home), they just don't have that impressive a resume. They look like they'll be on the outside looking in, barring a huge run in the ACC tournament.

The only good thing for the ACC bubble teams is that several of the bubble clubs in other conferences seems to be dropping games this week too. Cincy lost to South Florida-- blech!!

Of course, meanwhile the Big Ten is doing its best to put every darn team (except 2) into the dance. Northwestern beats Purdue and everyone else is desperately going .500. The first round of the Big Ten tourney is going to be like a play-in game for like 5 or 6 teams.

-Jason "I am gonna be rooting for BC and Maryland to each win this weekend and win in the first round of the ACC-- I think that will get them in and get the ACC to 7 bids... which is fine with me at this point" Evans

[CDu]

The only good thing for the ACC bubble teams is that several of the bubble clubs in other conferences seems to be dropping games this week too. Cincy lost to South Florida-- blech!!

Of course, meanwhile the Big Ten is doing its best to put every darn team (except 2) into the dance. Northwestern beats Purdue and everyone else is desperately going .500. The first round of the Big Ten tourney is going to be like a play-in game for like 5 or 6 teams.

-Jason "I am gonna be rooting for BC and Maryland to each win this weekend and win in the first round of the ACC-- I think that will get them in and get the ACC to 7 bids... which is fine with me at this point" Evans

Yeah, the problem for the ACC bubble teams is that, if they're under .500 in conference, there's going to be SOMEBODY from another conference that won't have such an enormous wort on their resume. BC will get in thanks to the flopping of the Big East and ACC bubble teams collectively. I'm hopeful that one more can sneak in, though it's not looking great. Maryland certainly has the better chance to be the seventh.

[ice-9]

Maryland certainly sounds good. There seems to be a lot of love going on between Gary and his team -- that's definitely something we haven't heard the last few seasons from Terpland. Vasquez, Neal, et. al. are saying the right things, about how they've regrouped, refocused, and are putting forth max effort. If true, they're a team that can surprise in the NCAA.

My guess is 7 with Duke, UNC, Wake, Clemson, FSU, BC and Maryland. Miami I think needs to win at least two in the ACC tourney to be considered, but a lot depends what happens in season tournaments elsewhere (though that should go without saying).

[Chitowndevil]

What a lousy few days for bubble teams in general and ACC bubble teams in particular. After going from serious talk about getting 9 teams in, 7 now appears more realistic, and 5 bids isn't impossible.

Miami has officially pulled a Clemson. They're 4-8 in their last 12 and that OOC win against Kentucky is looking a little less impressive every day.

Virginia Tech is likewise in big, big trouble. If I may step on my soapbox for a second, I am getting tired of hearing how Seth Greenberg & Co. are getting screwed by the selection committee. Yes, you play in a tough conference, which is why you do what Maryland did and beat up on Michigan and Michigan State to show you are better than middle of the pack teams in other leagues. If VT had beaten any ONE of Xavier, Seton Hall, Wisconsin, or even Georgia, they'd be in much better shape.

Speaking of Maryland, at 7-8 with a finale at Virginia, and those two Big 10 wins on their resume, I still like their chances.

Boston College had better take care of GT at home, or you're going to hear talk of them as a bubble team as well.

[allenmurray]

Maryland will finish at 7 - 9 after they lose to Virginia. Therefore they will not get a bid.

[Bob Green]

Maryland will finish at 7 - 9 after they lose to Virginia. Therefore they will not get a bid.

Virginia 68 - Maryland 63. I believe Maryland's bubble just busted and they will be NIT bound.

[SMO]

Virginia 68 - Maryland 63. I believe Maryland's bubble just busted and they will be NIT bound.

Which begs the question: if they win the NIT (or lose) will UMD fans riot?

N-I-T!
N-I-T!
N-I-T!

[ice-9]

Hahaha, so much for all the "they've got my back" talk. This must put Gary in the hot seat, to AGAIN lose to UVA in a bubble bursting final season game. Now if they can only lose in the first round of the tourney, the deja vu will be complete.

UNC, Duke, Wake, Clemson and FSU are locks, and I believe BC joins them with their 1-point win against GT (Boston fans must've been sweating quite a bit this game!).

The conference has an outside chance to send 7, but it all depends on what Miami does in the ACC tournament. They'd have to win at minimum two games to be in consideration, maybe even three. VT is on the fringe but can have a chance if they take down FSU at Tallahasee and win two or three in the ACC tourney. Not likely to happen though.

Looks like the ACC will send 6.

[devildeac]

Hahaha, so much for all the "they've got my back" talk. This must put Gary in the hot seat, to AGAIN lose to UVA in a bubble bursting final season game. Now if they can only lose in the first round of the tourney, the deja vu will be complete.

UNC, Duke, Wake, Clemson and FSU are locks, and I believe BC joins them with their 1-point win against GT (Boston fans must've been sweating quite a bit this game!).

The conference has an outside chance to send 7, but it all depends on what Miami does in the ACC tournament. They'd have to win at minimum two games to be in consideration, maybe even three. VT is on the fringe but can have a chance if they take down FSU at Tallahasee and win two or three in the ACC tourney. Not likely to happen though.

Looks like the ACC will send 6.

It would be a crying shame (boo-hoo-hoo) if the hokies miss the ncaa:rolleyes:. But, after all, as has been said before, you can't spell nit without virginia tech:D.

[Udaman]

You also can't spell NIT without

"Maryland will be in the NIT"

:)

[Stray Gator]

You also can't spell NIT without

"Maryland will be in the NIT"

:)

You can't spell "Terrapins" without NIT, either.

[devildeac]

You also can't spell NIT without

"Maryland will be in the NIT"

:)

Actually, you can spell it with the uNiversITy of maryland, too;).

[devildeac]

You can also spell it with 0% graduaTIoN rate:D.

[JasonEvans]

The Magic Number...

I think that Va Tech, Maryland, and Miami all have a magic number of 2 to make the big dance.

Va Tech needs to win on the road today against FSU (a big quality road win on their resume) and then win in the first round of the ACC tourney against NC St. Win those two and Va Tech would be 9-8 in ACC games headed into a quarter-final matchup with Duke, Wake, or UNC. A decent showing against one of those top teams and I think the Hokies would likely get a bid.

Maryland and Miami also need 2 wins-- but they are out of regular season games so their wins must come in the ACC tourney.

Miami is locked into the #9 seed, so they will be playing either VaT or Maryland in the first round followed by a game with Duke or UNC that they MUST WIN. Do that and you are in.

Maryland could be the #7 or #8 seed. That means they will play either Miami or NCSU. They then will face Duke, UNC, or Wake. Again, they will need to win against one of those stud teams to make the dance.

FWIW, I think all three of them will miss and the ACC will get 6 bids. But, as Bob Green and many others have pointed out, those 6 teams should all do very well and that may be more important than getting an extra team to the dance. I see Duke, UNC, Wake, Clemson, and FSU as all reasonably likely to make the Sweet 16. 4 or 5 ACC teams in the Sweet 16 would be good.

The Big East will also probably have 4 or 5 Sweet 16 teams. The other big conferences will struggle to get more than maybe 2.

--Jason "now, onto the Deam Dome for a big afternoon!!" Evans

[feldspar]

Maryland could be the #7 or #8 seed. That means they will play either Miami or NCSU. They then will face Duke, UNC, or Wake. Again, they will need to win against one of those stud teams to make the dance.


Maryland's done. Unless they make it to the finals of the ACC Tournament and push it to the wire and get the attention of one or two committee members. Even then, I don't see it happening.

You can't go 5-5 in your last 10 regular season games and lose to a team like Virginia and get into the NCAAT with a losing conference record.

Maryland is NIT bound.

[RepoMan]

What happened to this guy? It seems like everything he writes is shrouded in negativity and sarcasm. It is hard to consider his arguments (in this case criticizing the bid prospects of major conference teams hovering at .500) because his articles are just so filled with bitterness that I get distracted.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/09/AR2009030901297.html

[Indoor66]

What happened to this guy? It seems like everything he writes is shrouded in negativity and sarcasm. It is hard to consider his arguments (in this case criticizing the bid prospects of major conference teams hovering at .500) because his articles are just so filled with bitterness that I get distracted.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/09/AR2009030901297.html

Actually, I thought it was a pretty good article. He raises, IMO, valid points and states them well.