View Full Version : Big games today
Must-win and semi-must-win games are abound today in the ACC.
Miami has nothing but must-win games throughout, but today might be their toughest. They host BC. If they win this one, the probability of them getting into the tourney goes up substantially, as they close with @UVa, @GT, and NCSU.
VT has a borderline must-win game as well as they host FSU. They need two more wins, and their remaining schedule (@Clemson, Duke, UNC, @FSU) certainly isn't friendly. They really need to take care of business at home in what is probably their most winnable game left.
NCSU has virtually no hopes of an at-large bid, but you never know. They have to win today against UVa or the dream is certainly over. But with a win today and a win @Wake on Thursday? Then maybe the door opens.
Maryland is pretty unlikely to pull it off as well, but they have a chance to add to their wins over Michigan and Michigan St with a win over UNC. If they could find a way to win today, then winning two of three games against Duke, @UVa, and @NCSU would put them in an interesting position.
If I had to guess, I'd say Miami, VT, and NCSU win their home games, while Maryland gets hammered by UNC. But you never know.
sandinmyshoes
02-21-2009, 09:34 AM
It is unlikely that Maryland could upset UNC, but I have noticed that UNC seems to have difficulty with defending the flex offense. They can probably just out offense Maryland like they did in Chapel Hill, but it's something to consider.
Miami is a classic "better than their record" team.
The VT/FSU game is a hard call. Should be a good game. Perhaps the best of the day.
Miami is off to the right type of start. They're up 22-8 on BC. BC is shooting terribly and Miami is shooting the lights out, but they're doing exactly what they need to be doing today.
roywhite
02-21-2009, 12:41 PM
Miami is off to the right type of start. They're up 22-8 on BC. BC is shooting terribly and Miami is shooting the lights out, but they're doing exactly what they need to be doing today.
BC shot at least 58% each half against us...arghhh.
BC shot at least 58% each half against us...arghhh.
Well, BC shot a lot of layups against us, which boosts that percentage. Miami is playing a zone, forcing perimeter shots. That's a big part of the difference. They're shooting the exact same percentage on threes as they did against us (44.4%). Miami is just doing a better job of preventing easy layups than we did.
Barring a late collapse, Miami is going to pull off the win today. The door is open for them. If they win the games they're supposed to win the rest of the way, they'll have a case at 8-8 in conference. They just have to show they can win on the road against the bottom feeders and then beat an improving NCSU team.
NCSU is doing what they need to do as well (so far). I'm impressed by the way they've played in the second half of the season. Going to Smith and Gonzalez has seemed to spark the team. They are REALLY unlikely to make the tournament, but if they keep playing well you just never know.
It's been a good day so far for the ACC bubble teams. Miami, NCSU, and Maryland all won their games. VT can help themselves out a lot with a win at home tonight.
Maryland's season just got interesting. They're now 6-6 in conference with a win over UNC and out of conference wins over Michigan St and Michigan. They have Duke and Wake at home NCSU and UVa on the road. If they win two of those four, they have an interesting argument.
captmojo
02-21-2009, 07:13 PM
It's been a good day so far for the ACC bubble teams. Miami, NCSU, and Maryland all won their games. VT can help themselves out a lot with a win at home tonight.
Maryland's season just got interesting. They're now 6-6 in conference with a win over UNC and out of conference wins over Michigan St and Michigan. They have Duke and Wake at home NCSU and UVa on the road. If they win two of those four, they have an interesting argument.
So I guess they aren't calling for Gary's head on a turtle shell any more?
FSU has jumped all over VT early, up 12 after the first ten minutes. They're looking to stamp their names into the lock category. If VT wants a shot at a tourney bid, they're going to have to step it up big-time soon.
Newton_14
02-21-2009, 09:25 PM
So what are the chances that Duke really messes up and ends up finishing lower than 4th and having to play on Thursday in the ACC Tourney?
It is going to be close I think. We need the game tomorrow against Wake in a huge way. Either way, we need to sweep the 3 games with Maryland, FSU, and VT.
So if we go 3 and 2 over the final 5 do we stay in the top 4?
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