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View Full Version : 3p shooting woes - a historical perspective



Duke84Blue
02-20-2009, 04:56 PM
I was curious about Duke's 3p shooting percentage this year, so I looked it up and saw that it was lower than any other year under Coach K. But, then I remembered they moved back the 3 point line and wondered what effect that was having across the NCAA. And, it turns out that the percentage is down (slightly) this year, so it is having a bit of an impact on the game.

But, I was still curious, so in an attempt to take that variation out of the equation, I compared Duke's 3p shooting percentage vs. the national average over time to see if there was any trend this year. And, there certainly is!!! I put together the following graph (see attached) that shows the national average for the last 13 years in red (very steady in the 34% range growing to about 35% last year and then tailing off slightly this year to about 34%). Now, look at Duke's percentage in blue. We typically crush the national average except for this year! For the last 12 years, we shot an average of 3.3% better than the national average. In '98-'99, we shot 5.5% better than the average! Our 'worst' year was '02-'03 when we shot just 1.6% better than the nation.

And, that brings us to this year where in just the last 2 weeks we have dropped below the national average (for the first time in 13 years). We are now shooting 33.52% vs. a national average of 34.21%.

jv001
02-20-2009, 05:39 PM
I was curious about Duke's 3p shooting percentage this year, so I looked it up and saw that it was lower than any other year under Coach K. But, then I remembered they moved back the 3 point line and wondered what effect that was having across the NCAA. And, it turns out that the percentage is down (slightly) this year, so it is having a bit of an impact on the game.

But, I was still curious, so in an attempt to take that variation out of the equation, I compared Duke's 3p shooting percentage vs. the national average over time to see if there was any trend this year. And, there certainly is!!! I put together the following graph (see attached) that shows the national average for the last 13 years in red (very steady in the 34% range growing to about 35% last year and then tailing off slightly this year to about 34%). Now, look at Duke's percentage in blue. We typically crush the national average except for this year! For the last 12 years, we shot an average of 3.3% better than the national average. In '98-'99, we shot 5.5% better than the average! Our 'worst' year was '02-'03 when we shot just 1.6% better than the nation.

And, that brings us to this year where in just the last 2 weeks we have dropped below the national average (for the first time in 13 years). We are now shooting 33.52% vs. a national average of 34.21%.


having JJ for 4 years had to help the percentages in prior years. I guess you are saying the extra distance has made a difference in our success the year. Go Duke!

zingit
02-21-2009, 02:12 AM
Thanks for taking the time to compile those statistics. That's an interesting result. I can't figure out why this team has not been shooting as well as last year's team, but perhaps it does have something to do with the extra foot added to the line. I know several of our guys can shoot from the new 3-point line and farther, but to do that consistently, and to have to adjust your reflexes and everything, has got to be tough.

78Devil
02-21-2009, 10:19 AM
I think the point that the OP is making is that it has to be something MORE than the movement of the 3 point line, since that applies to all schools, and yet the average school dropped only a little while we dropped significantly.

I think it gets back to the confidence/psychological issues. Maybe those turned around a bit with St. John's, at least for Kyle. And Jon seems to be getting more confidence very gradually. Sunday will be a real test.

One question I would have about these statistics is to see if we could measure year to year offensive rebounding. While our shooting is off, in a strange way it seems to be so far off that the bounds are coming way outside and we are snagging them for second and third chances. It helps mitigate our bad 3 point shooting percentage, but its also a very frustrating and chancy way to score!

Hancock 4 Duke
02-21-2009, 11:09 AM
If you could, I would like you to post the 2 pt shooting stats as well. Not only does the moved back three point line effect the three point shooting, but it makes the 2 pt position a foot farther back. Say their toes are on the line and it's a two, it's harder for them to hit that shot than a regular ten footer. Farther shots are naturally harder to make than say, layups.

Newton_14
02-21-2009, 11:04 PM
In an interview earlier this year, Coach K mentioned that he felt having 2 lines on the court could be part of the issue as well. I can imagine players are somewhat affected by that.

I did not feel that moving the line back one foot would have any effect, and looking at the national avg it had only a minimal effect.

I do think that our guys are better shooters than what they have shown this year, and shot selection has played a role. When they take "good" 3's they make a high percentage.

COYS
02-22-2009, 01:34 AM
I do think that our guys are better shooters than what they have shown this year, and shot selection has played a role. When they take "good" 3's they make a high percentage.

That's definitely true to a degree, but we've missed a fair number of uncontested threes, as well (i.e. the first Wake game). I'm still hopeful that we can get more efficient with our three point shooting and knocking down the open ones will certainly help to that end.

dukebluelemur
02-22-2009, 01:47 AM
Here's a theory for someone to test with more time an inclination than me... Compare the shooting percentages nationally at 1) buildings with normal men's and women's lines and 2) buildings with an additional NBA line.

As mentioned before, its sort of a tossup as to whether the distance, or an additional line, is more troublesome... but I can see the second problem being compounded when you play games where you aren't always shooting at either the inner or outer line. I know during the St. Johns game I saw Kyle carefully line himself up outside the NBA line once.

CameronCrazy'11
02-22-2009, 04:29 AM
Our shooting was always streaky, but this year we seem to have only bad and mediocre shooting days.

heyman25
02-22-2009, 05:19 AM
I would like to see our home court shooting statistics.It seems like this year has been the worse ever, but stats don't lie.