ACC Roundup 2/16

[Bob Green]

There are five schools with four conference losses competing for second place in the ACC Standings: Clemson (7-4), Duke (7-4), FSU (6-4), VT (6-4), and WFU (6-4).

- Clemson has already won their midweek game 93-64 over Maryland and they face Georgia Tech on Sunday. I expect Clemson will be 8-4 at the end of the week.

- Duke plays out-of-conference on Thursday and hosts Wake Forest on Sunday. While I admit I am an insufferable optimist, I'm predicting Duke will turn things around and defeat Wake to end the week 8-4 in conference.

- FSU hosts Miami on Wednesday and then travels to VT on Saturday. I say they go 1-1 to end the week 7-5.

- VT travels to Virginia on Wednesday and hosts FSU on Saturday. They will win both games and be 8-4.

- Wake Forest hosts Georgia Tech on Wednesday and travels to Duke on Sunday. The Deacons go 1-1 and end the week at 7-5.

Week's end will find Clemson, Duke, and Virginia Tech tied for second place in the standings with 8-4 records. Thoughts?

[jv001]

There are five schools with four conference losses competing for second place in the ACC Standings: Clemson (7-4), Duke (7-4), FSU (6-4), VT (6-4), and WFU (6-4).

- Clemson has already won their midweek game 93-64 over Maryland and they face Georgia Tech on Sunday. I expect Clemson will be 8-4 at the end of the week.

- Duke plays out-of-conference on Thursday and hosts Wake Forest on Sunday. While I admit I am an insufferable optimist, I'm predicting Duke will turn things around and defeat Wake to end the week 8-4 in conference.

- FSU hosts Miami on Wednesday and then travels to VT on Saturday. I say they go 1-1 to end the week 7-5.

- VT travels to Virginia on Wednesday and hosts FSU on Saturday. They will win both games and be 8-4.

- Wake Forest hosts Georgia Tech on Wednesday and travels to Duke on Sunday. The Deacons go 1-1 and end the week at 7-5.

Week's end will find Clemson, Duke, and Virginia Tech tied for second place in the standings with 8-4 records. Thoughts?

Logically speaking, I would say you are correct in your forecast, but we all know how tough the ACC is. FSU could easily go 0-2 or 2-0..VT could easily go 1-1, Wake could lose to GA. Tech and Duke or they could beat them both. My predictions:
FSU goes 0-2, VT goes 2-0, Wake goes 1-1, Clemson beats Ga Tech and Duke beats St. Johns and Wake. Go Duke!

[CDu]

Logically speaking, I would say you are correct in your forecast, but we all know how tough the ACC is. FSU could easily go 0-2 or 2-0..VT could easily go 1-1, Wake could lose to GA. Tech and Duke or they could beat them both. My predictions:
FSU goes 0-2, VT goes 2-0, Wake goes 1-1, Clemson beats Ga Tech and Duke beats St. Johns and Wake. Go Duke!

Agreed. Things seem pretty straightforward, but you just never can tell in the ACC.

I think the middle of the pack is fun to keep an eye on as well. Interestingly, if FSU, Miami, BC, and Va Tech win their remaining games against the "bottom-feeders" and take their home games against each other, we'll have the following:

BC 10-6
FSU 8-8
VT 8-8
Mia 8-8

And that's assuming these guys don't steal one from the upper-tier teams (VT has home games against us and against UNC which provide them such an opportunity, and FSU hosts Clemson).

Granted, that's asking a lot, but there is a very real possibility of having eight ACC teams at .500 or better at the end of the regular season.

[CDu]

To follow up on this, the standings right now are a bit deceiving. While Miami is currently below NCSU and Maryland in the standings, the Canes appear much more likely to get a tourney bid than the other two. Miami closes with @FSU, BC, @UVa, @GT, and NCSU. All of those are winnable games, but the last four should favor Miami. If they hold serve, they should get to 8-8 and then it's probably a coin flip for them to get in. State and Maryland closes with UNC, Duke, @NCSU, Wake, and @UVa. They should really only win one of those games, maybe two. NCSU has @UNC, UVa, @Wake, Maryland, BC, and @Miami. That's another likely 3-4 losses for them as well.

It will be interesting to see how the stretch goes. We could potentially finish second or fifth. If we go 3-2 in the remaining ACC games, there's a real chance that BC, Wake, and Clemson match us at 10-6. If that happens, I suspect we would be playing on the opening day of the ACC tourney (as we will almost certainly have the worst record in the combined head-to-head). Hopefully we turn things around in the second half of February.

[Indoor66]

I have a question about the ACC Roundup feature of the board: Why do we not have the Duke game included in the upcoming games listed above the Standings window? IMO it would be helpful to add that info there as well as on the front page. I like having all my games of interest listed together - to plan my viewing and recording schedule. Just a thought....

[whereinthehellami]

UVA is a big rivalry game for VT and Allen is suspended (UVA game only) for flipping off the Maryland fanbase. Allen needs to get his head screwed on right. He is too emotional. Aparently Greenberg found out the hard way about the Maryland fans. He said it was the worst display of bad sportsmanship (from the fans) that he has ever been a part of and filed a complant with Maryland (good luck with that).

[Olympic Fan]

With Virginia Tech and Miami very much on the NCAA bubble, it's possible that a moment of anger -- and undisciplined restraint -- could cost both teams an NCAA bid.

For Miami, the moment came back in the Ohio State game, when Jack McClinton lost his cool and slapped an annoying defender. He was ejected -- and Miami, which had been winning by double figures, collapsed in his absence.

We don't know yet what Allen's stupid gesture is going to end up costing the Hokies, but Virginia is showing signs of life (beating Clemson in C'ville) and not having Allen could easily be decisive. A loss to the Cavs would really hurt VPI's NCAA chances.

PS Bob's right that there's a fantastic race for second place, but keep in mind that the REAL race is for a spot in the top four in the standings. The fifth and sixth place teams (and two of the five teams with four ACC losses at this moment will occupy those spots) will have to play a first-round ACC Tournament game on Thursday -- that's tough. In addition, the fourth place finishes faces a potential semifinal matchup with UNC.

So to me, not much difference between second and third, but both are much better than fourth and much, MUCH better than 5th or 6th.

[gumbomoop]

I've speculated in another thread on possibility of a multi-team tie for 2d (10-6) in ACC, maybe even 5 teams (BC, D, C, VT, WF). Even 6 (!), except FSU's end-schedule is about as brutal as ours, and that it's almost surely mathematically impossible, just as a 5-way 10-6 tie is improbable.

I assume UNC will go 13-3 or 14-2. Any team that ends 11-5 will surely get 2d or at worst a tie for 2d. (Right?)

Of course I want Duke to go 12-4, but it's unlikely, so I'd be thrilled to end 11-5 in 2d. Still, I'm expecting a multi-tie at 10-6, so...... like Bob's thread-starter, I look at upcoming and all remaining games, and especially for games among other teams that would "help" Duke by giving losses to BC, C, VT, and WF. In that regard, big games are:

BC -@Miami, @NCSt - If BC wins either, they could definitely get 2d at 11-5
C -@GT, @FSU, @WF - If C wins 2 of those, very likely 11-5
VT -They end with 4 tough games, @C, h D & UNC, @FSU - very unlikely to make 11-5, but 10-6 is plausible, 9-7 or even 8-8 also plausible
WF -@D, @Md, h C - 10-6 likely, 11-5 posssible

Admittedly, every game is big for every team, BUT, alas, the upper-tier team that has on its remaining schedule NO "near-certain" conf win is...... Duke.

So if we end 12-4, I'm amazed and proud [and ashamed of being amazed]. 11-5, I'm very happy. 10-6, I'm sorta satisfied, but worried that in a multi-10-6-tie we lose out on tie-breakers and wind up 4th or 5th. Yikes.

[gumbomoop]

I messed up on recent post. Obviously [except to me a few minutes ago], for BC to end 11-5, they gotta win all remaining games. So, I'll amend my mistake to say if BC beats either M or NCSt away, they get into my predicted multi-10-6-tie for 2d.

[Bob Green]

PS Bob's right that there's a fantastic race for second place, but keep in mind that the REAL race is for a spot in the top four in the standings.

OF makes an excellent point. The objective should be to ensure we don't have to play a game on Thursday in the ACC Tournament. Positioning ourselves on the opposite side of the bracket from Carolina by finishing 2nd or 3rd is also desireable in order to set-up a potential third game against Carolina in the Championship Game.

[CDu]

FSU is did their job tonight. At 7-4, they are all but assured of a tourney bid now. They have a strong RPI, good non-conference wins, and no bad losses. They just need to win one of the last five. There are no gimmes, though, with @VT, @BC, Clemson, @Duke, and VT. I think they may find a way to win two of those, but they could conceivably lose out.

Strangely, the loss for Miami doesn't eliminate them. Despite being 4-8 in conference, they have the easiest remaining schedule of any ACC team, with BC, @UVa, @GT, and NCSU. But they have to win out. All of those games are winnable, but you just never know with this team. If they win out, then they'd get a chance to boost their case a bit more with a Thursday ACC tourney game.

Va Tech is doing themselves no favors at the moment. They can't afford to give this game away to UVa. If they lose that, then they probably need to steal one against @Clemson, Duke, or UNC. They've got a lot of work to do in this second half tonight to avoid putting a lot of pressure on themselves.

[ice-9]

I think Miami is an NCAA tournament team, and a dangerous one at that, but they are on the verge of being knocked out after losing to FSU today.

The loss to NC State and the inability to win close games is going to cost them. Their record of games decided by 5 points or less: 1-4.

For Miami to be considered they'll have to win all their remaining games and one more in the ACC tournament; they'll have to win two or three in the tourney to feel safe.

[geraldsneighbor]

UVA beating up on Tech the way they are is a shock IMO. Gives a little more cushion to these cramped ACC Standings.

[DukeFencer]

I think the bottom-feeders have proved they're sticking around to spice things up a little bit more in the ACC (as if it needed some more spice.)

2 of Virginia's 3 wins are over Clemson & VaTech now (third over GaTech) and GT's only win is over Wake.

State is the only one that looks even remotely predictable, with 3 of their 4 wins coming over teams in the bottom 3. But even still they manage to take out Wake.

Gotta love the ACC!

[Bob Green]

VT losing to VA is a bit of a shocker. Winning on the road in conference is always a challenge so I cannot say I am completely shocked and, of course, the Jeff Allen suspension hurt the Hokies. Saturday's matchup against FSU in Blacksburg is a game with big post season implications. VT is quickly moving into must win territory.

[jv001]

VT losing to VA is a bit of a shocker. Winning on the road in conference is always a challenge so I cannot say I am completely shocked and, of course, the Jeff Allen suspension hurt the Hokies. Saturday's matchup against FSU in Blacksburg is a game with big post season implications. VT is quickly moving into must win territory.

Teams like VT cannot afford to lose players like Jeff Allen to suspension. He really hurt his team with the unprofessional conduct he displayed against md. This really puts VT on the bubble in my opinion. But wait and see how hard they play against us. Go Duke!

[CDu]

VT losing to VA is a bit of a shocker. Winning on the road in conference is always a challenge so I cannot say I am completely shocked and, of course, the Jeff Allen suspension hurt the Hokies. Saturday's matchup against FSU in Blacksburg is a game with big post season implications. VT is quickly moving into must win territory.

I think the game in Blacksburg is a must win at this point. They have @Clemson, Duke, UNC, and @FSU to close. Clemson and FSU are very tough on their home floors, and UNC is tough anywhere. We are beatable in Blacksburg, but they almost have to count on that already (and I'd we're certainly no pushover). At this point, VT has to win Saturday AND take one of those tough games down the stretch.

I'd almost say, despite the fact that Miami has to win out, that Miami has an easier road to the tourney than VT at this point. Winning two of five against VT's schedule may actually be tougher than going 4-0 against Miami's schedule, and both will need to win on Thursday in the ACC tourney.

VT and Miami both appear as though they're going to regret losing to the lower-tier ACC teams. The losses to Maryland and NCSU have put Miami up against the eight-ball, and the Maryland and UVa losses have put VT in a very uncomfortable spot as well. Switch those results, and both have pretty strong cases for the tourney. Switch even just two or three of those results, and at least one of those two teams is in pretty good shape.

[Klemnop]

VT and Miami both appear as though they're going to regret losing to the lower-tier ACC teams. The losses to Maryland and NCSU have put Miami up against the eight-ball, and the Maryland and UVa losses have put VT in a very uncomfortable spot as well. Switch those results, and both have pretty strong cases for the tourney. Switch even just two or three of those results, and at least one of those two teams is in pretty good shape.


I think you just described the Big East.

[CDu]

According to Ken Pomeroy, Miami has a 28.7% chance to get to 8-8 in conference, while VT has a 33.1% chance to get to at least 8-8. It seems pretty interesting how similar those probabilities are, given that VT has two more wins in hand. But it shouldn't be all that surprising given the remaining schedules for both teams.

The take-home, I guess, is that neither team is a strong likelihood right now to get to .500 in conference, meaning both are in a lot of trouble for making the tournament.

[JasonEvans]

VT's loss last night means they will need an upset, perhaps even a big upset, to get to 8-8 in the ACC.

Assuming they beat FSU at home (which will not be easy, especially if Allen is still out), they must also knock off either FSU or Clemson on the road (good luck!) or beat Duke or Carolina at home. Hard to see VT favored in any of those games.

And I am far from convinced that 8-8 would get them into the NCAA tourney because they had some silly, bad results early in the year like the losses to Seton Hall and Georgia (two bottom tier major conference teams).

If VT goes to the NIT, they will look back on the loss to Va and UGA and Seton Hall-- three teams they clearly should have beaten, and know why they are not playing with the big boys.

--Jason "I still think Miami has a decent shot to make the Dance and give the ACC 7 teams... which would be nice" Evans

[JDev]

VT's loss last night means they will need an upset, perhaps even a big upset, to get to 8-8 in the ACC.

Assuming they beat FSU at home (which will not be easy, especially if Allen is still out), they must also knock off either FSU or Clemson on the road (good luck!) or beat Duke or Carolina at home. Hard to see VT favored in any of those games.

And I am far from convinced that 8-8 would get them into the NCAA tourney because they had some silly, bad results early in the year like the losses to Seton Hall and Georgia (two bottom tier major conference teams).

If VT goes to the NIT, they will look back on the loss to Va and UGA and Seton Hall-- three teams they clearly should have beaten, and know why they are not playing with the big boys

I hope that VT drops a few more before they host Duke. If they are still playing for their tournament lives that will be a much more difficult game. That being said, no matter what happens, Duke is a better team and should win. On the road in the ACC is tough all the time regardless.

[CDu]

VT's loss last night means they will need an upset, perhaps even a big upset, to get to 8-8 in the ACC.

Assuming they beat FSU at home (which will not be easy, especially if Allen is still out), they must also knock off either FSU or Clemson on the road (good luck!) or beat Duke or Carolina at home. Hard to see VT favored in any of those games.

And I am far from convinced that 8-8 would get them into the NCAA tourney because they had some silly, bad results early in the year like the losses to Seton Hall and Georgia (two bottom tier major conference teams).

If VT goes to the NIT, they will look back on the loss to Va and UGA and Seton Hall-- three teams they clearly should have beaten, and know why they are not playing with the big boys.

--Jason "I still think Miami has a decent shot to make the Dance and give the ACC 7 teams... which would be nice" Evans

Completely agree. VT did themselves no favors. They need to win the game at home against FSU and beat one of @Clemson, Duke, or UNC and then win their Thursday ACC game to feel remotely good about their chances. If they merely sweep FSU (which would put FSU in an awkward spot as well), they'll be sweating bullets and likely NITing.

Miami has no room for error in any game, but their schedule is convenient for a run. BC at home, and then the three lower-tier teams, with the toughest of those three at home. They can definitely do it, and if they win out (and win their Thursday game), it will be hard to deny them a spot.

I think we'll easily get six teams this year, and seven is a real possibility. Things would have to play out perfectly to get eight. I think BC and FSU will get in. But there is always the chance that VT sweeps FSU and loses the rest, leaving VT at 8-8 and FSU at 7-9, and the ACC with a real shot at only five bids.

[pfrduke]

Completely agree. VT did themselves no favors. They need to win the game at home against FSU and beat one of @Clemson, Duke, or UNC and then win their Thursday ACC game to feel remotely good about their chances. If they merely sweep FSU (which would put FSU in an awkward spot as well), they'll be sweating bullets and likely NITing.

Miami has no room for error in any game, but their schedule is convenient for a run. BC at home, and then the three lower-tier teams, with the toughest of those three at home. They can definitely do it, and if they win out (and win their Thursday game), it will be hard to deny them a spot.

I think we'll easily get six teams this year, and seven is a real possibility. Things would have to play out perfectly to get eight. I think BC and FSU will get in. But there is always the chance that VT sweeps FSU and loses the rest, leaving VT at 8-8 and FSU at 7-9, and the ACC with a real shot at only five bids.

I agree that the VT 8-8, FSU 7-9 scenario would be very uncomfortable for the tournament chances of all involved, but I think FSU still gets in there. Their resume is extremely solid, in a year where the bubble as a whole is very weak. For whatever reason, there are neither a lot of deserving major conference teams nor stellar mid-majors looking at at-large bids (although that could obviously change if teams like Butler, Davidson, or even Siena lose in their conference tournaments, or if someone outside the Gonzaga-St. Mary's or Dayton-Xavier pairs wins the WCC or A-10).

I think FSU's resume as a whole is sufficiently better than VT's that even if the committee technically has to reach over the Hokies in the conference standings, the Noles would be in.

6 really seems like the bare minimum for the ACC this year, and the Noles are close to a lock (barring a 1-5 or 0-6 finish). Assuming your first 5 are UNC, Duke, Clemson, Wake, and BC, there just aren't 30 at-large teams (65-31 conference champs-4 ACC at large either a) better or b) with better resumes than Florida State. There may not be 30 at-large teams either better or with better resumes than Miami either. The Hokies, I'm not so sure about. They may have a winning ACC record, but they've been outscored by 22 and lost all 3 of the double-digit conference games they've been involved in. They barely beat GT at home, NCSU at home, and got absolutely stomped by Virginia (albeit, w/o Allen). Really, if it wasn't for the Wake win, I don't think we'd be talking about them much at all. It would very much surprise me to see the Hokies make the tournament.