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Udaman
02-16-2009, 08:58 AM
Back right before the Wake game, I posted that I thought we would finish 6-6 down the stretch, and could easily end up a 4 or 5 seed in the tourney. Boy the venom that came out.

It wasn't said because I thought we were bad....just because our schedule looked tough, and we had sort of beaten up on what was starting to look like not very good teams (see Purdue and Georgetown).

The problem with this team isn't depth (though I would love to see Plumlee and Pocius play more) - we go 7 1/2 deep, which is fine. It's that we can't stop dribble penetration, we take way too many threes, and we can't shoot very well, which tends to mean we have long stretches where we barely score. With 2:36 minutes to go in the first half, we had 37 points. With 12:41 to go in the game, we had 49. Scoring 12 points over a ten minute stretch is not going to cut it. Also, there are always moments in a game, where you look back and say, "If just this on thing hadn't happened, we would have won." Last night, there were 4 that happened in 1 minute and 20 seconds at the end of the first half. First Roche made a ridiculous 3 pointer. Then Rice made one as well. Then Smith missed a wide open 3 (badly), we got the rebound, it went right back to Smith and he missed another wide open 3 (even worse). If ANY of those four things don't happen, we win the game.

Alas, we did not. Now we have at St Johns, then home to Wake, at Maryland, at Va Tech, home to FSU, at UNC. It's all about seeding now. Thankfully, Wake keeps losing as well, so we could....maybe....still end up in Greensboro. But to do that, we pretty much have to go 5-1 down the stretch and win a game in the ACC tourney. Could happen. Probably won't.

Personally, I would be thrilled if we finished 4-2. And won at least one game in the ACC tourney. That puts us as a solid 3 seed. What we don't want is going 3-3 or worse, because then we lose the first round bye in the ACC tourney (bad), and we are looking at a 4 or 5 seed, having to face a likely tough 2nd round opponent, and then going up against UConn, Oklahoma or Pitt in the Sweet 16. Then again, I would take a Sweet 16 appearance....but finishing 5-7 down the stretch, plus an early loss in the ACC tourney would mean we have no confidence going into the tourney, and a sweet 16 appearance would be pretty tough to consider.

Oh well. At least we have St John's comin up. I didn't like it on our schedule earlier, but right now we need to smoke somebody in an easy win...and they will definitely provide that.

Buckeye Devil
02-16-2009, 09:44 AM
I think a 4 seed is likely and reasonable given the overall resume' of Duke. That is assuming that there is no further deterioration and at least a 3-3 finish and 1 ACCT win. Anything worse means a 5/6 seed in my estimation. If Duke goes 4-2 and gets a couple of wins in the ACCT, then maybe a 3 seed. I was hoping for a 2 seed earlier but then reality hits and along with the realization that this not a marquee Duke team.

dukestheheat
02-16-2009, 09:47 AM
3.

dth.

HDB
02-16-2009, 11:04 AM
4 seed is looking most likely (which could include a dangerous first round opponent)

Kfanarmy
02-16-2009, 11:33 AM
4to 5 seed unless they put some wins together...if they finish like they've played February they'll finish the season 4 and 8, unlikely but possible.

brianl
02-16-2009, 12:01 PM
I'd rather see them go in as a 3 seed and stay close than be a 2 out West. They seem to struggle when playing west in March.

ncexnyc
02-16-2009, 12:18 PM
Seed shmead. The seeding really doesn't mean squat. We've had high seeds the past few years and you've all seen what the outcome has been.:(

Either the team is or isn't playing well come the start of the tournament. You've got to win 6 games to take it all and somewhere along the line you have to play and beat some quality teams if you expect to advance.

geraldsneighbor
02-16-2009, 01:30 PM
I think it is crucial for us to be playing our best ball in March. If it means we get a 4 seed, so be it. I think though having played as tough a schedule as anyone the committee will respect that. Lunardi has us as a 3 seed playing in Philly. Trips to Philly in the past have been great for us (and convenient for me). This team still has work to do starting with Thursday and specifically Sunday, but saying they will be a 5 seed is a little nuts in my opinion.

Our Current "Resume"
Key Wins:
at #9 Purdue, at Florida State, vs. #7 Xavier, vs. #13 Georgetown

Key Losses:
at #10 Clemson, vs. #3 UNC, at #6 Wake

RPI: 5
SOS: 8th (I believe)

Not that bad of a resume. We have as many question marks currently as Wake does. So, let's all take a deep breath.

gumbomoop
02-16-2009, 02:54 PM
Rather than focus just on Duke's possible seed, I tend to think of our seed in the following larger context: generally, outside the top 4, which appear to be near-certain top seeds, I can imagine 10-12 teams vying for #2 & 3 seeds as the season winds down. Mich St, playing in a somewhat-down conference, "ought" to do well and secure a #2 seed, but they still have to visit Illinois and have home/away with Purdue. Marquette? Geez, they're fun to watch, but they visit Gtown, Louisville, and Pitt, and entertain UConn and Syracuse; so, can they survive and get a 3 seed? Louisville? Well, an easier end-schedule, so a likely 2-3 seed, but they're wildly inconsistent. Missouri? Don't know where they came from, but if they could beat either Kansas on road or Okla at home, they could sneak into a 2 seed. Amazing, and I'd be pleased if Duke were a 3 to Mo's 2 in some region. (Famous last words? So be it.)

ACC appears chaotic, with UNC a certain reg season winner, while #2-6 is up in air (2-8????) A 3-4-way tie for second at 10-6 is quite plausible. Clemson, despite their stumble at UVa, "should" grab second spot in conference (and probably an NCAA 2 seed) if they can win away at either FSU or Wake. But that's a big if, and, speaking of ifs, if the winner of Duke-Wake gets hot in its other remaining conf games, then that team could nip into the 2 spot, both conf and NCAA. As I and others have noted in other threads, however, Duke's "unbalanced" end-schedule is tough, tough. Boy, so is FSU's, so no way they'll end at 10-6. VaTech ends with 4 tough games, but they could get to 10-6 with a home win over Duke (arrggghhhh!) or UNC. And BC, by golly, could go 10-6 or even 11-5 (!!) if they play the way they played us and UNC. Amazing.

As to our ultimate prospects, we're anywhere from an NCAA #2-6, depending. I guess it's wildly optimistic to even hope we could still be a 2, so I'd definitely settle for a 3. At the depressing end, I'd prefer a 6 to a 5 seed, for the difference between a 1st-rd 11 or 12 is meaningless, between a 2d-rd 4 and 3 ditto; but there's a big diff between a Sweet 16 match-up against any of the possible 2's and any of the obvious 1's.

Ben63
02-16-2009, 03:42 PM
I think it is crucial for us to be playing our best ball in March. If it means we get a 4 seed, so be it. I think though having played as tough a schedule as anyone the committee will respect that. Lunardi has us as a 3 seed playing in Philly. Trips to Philly in the past have been great for us (and convenient for me). This team still has work to do starting with Thursday and specifically Sunday, but saying they will be a 5 seed is a little nuts in my opinion.

Our Current "Resume"
Key Wins:
at #9 Purdue, at Florida State, vs. #7 Xavier, vs. #13 Georgetown

Key Losses:
at #10 Clemson, vs. #3 UNC, at #6 Wake

RPI: 5
SOS: 8th (I believe)

Not that bad of a resume. We have as many question marks currently as Wake does. So, let's all take a deep breath.

I think if the tournament started tomorrow we would be a #3 seed but our "stock" is falling fast. The main problem I see is not winning games against the 3 best teams in the ACC (UNC, Wake, Clemson.) We need to beat at least one of these teams and unfortunately, we don't play Clemson again. This means winning home to Wake or away to UNC, and both games will be difficult and there is a good possibility we lose both. Yes the wins against Xavier and Georgetown are nice, but Xavier is still in the A10 and GTown hasn't exactly been lighting up the Big East.

I honestly don't like where this season is going, but we definitely overachieved in December/January raising expectations way above a realistic level for this year's team. I think a Sweet 16 berth would be an excellent accomplishment and anything after that has to be seen as a bonus.

shotrocksplitter
02-16-2009, 04:05 PM
beat wake and UNC and ans go 2-3 games deep in the ACC tourney and we're a 2 seed. None of the 3 and it's 4 or 5.

The1Bluedevil
02-16-2009, 05:03 PM
The latest bracket on ESPN would be a nightmare draw for Duke.

geraldsneighbor
02-16-2009, 06:34 PM
I'm not quite sure why everyone thinks we could be a 6 seed. You remember what we had to do to be a 6 seed? We had 10 losses. We were swept by MD, UNC, and really lacked any sort of signature win. I think our best non-conference win was against a down-Gonzaga team. Keep it all in perspective. Wake hasn't exactly been lighting it up, and we have them at HOME. Win that game, you can start getting the confidence back. Hell, maybe in the ACC tournament UNC gets upset by a Miami and we win the whole thing. Then were a 2 seed. It all ain't that bad, unless you want to look at it like its bad.

eddiehaskell
02-16-2009, 06:44 PM
IMO, beat SJU, VT, Maryland, FSU and atleast 1 or 2 games in the ACC tournament and I think we could possibly sneak in as a 3 seed at 25-8. Obviously, throwing in a win over WFU or UNC would likely secure a 3 seed (and give a little hope of getting 2 seed).

On the other hand, loses to WFU, UNC, a split in the other 4 games and a 1st or 2nd round loss in the ACC tourney could leave us with a 6 seed. :eek:

TwoDukeTattoos
02-17-2009, 02:14 AM
We could still land a 3-seed even if we suffer 2-3 more losses.

whereinthehellami
02-17-2009, 08:28 AM
Also, there are always moments in a game, where you look back and say, "If just this on thing hadn't happened, we would have won." Last night, there were 4 that happened in 1 minute and 20 seconds at the end of the first half. First Roche made a ridiculous 3 pointer. Then Rice made one as well. Then Smith missed a wide open 3 (badly), we got the rebound, it went right back to Smith and he missed another wide open 3 (even worse). If ANY of those four things don't happen, we win the game.

We win the game? I don't know about that. I don't think we had the toughness to deny BC the win on that day. They wanted that game and it looked like to me they were going to win it.

I'll go with a 3 seed and a 2nd round exit.

DU Band Prez 88
02-17-2009, 11:41 AM
The latest bracket on ESPN would be a nightmare draw for Duke.

Lunardi has us right now as #3 in Philly. I agree with the #3 as the most likely seeding. Let's just take the draw the way it is today. Win the first game, play the winner of Syracuse/BYU. Yes, it would potentially be a very tough 2nd game with either of these teams, or any winner of a 6/11 game for that matter, but I am just sticking with Duke to advance past the 2nd round this year.

Say it's Memphis in the round of 16. The potential "nightmare" then is another talented, quick guard plus an athletic team. I still like our guys against Memphis. Who has Memphis played this year out of their conference, besides Tennessee? I'd LOVE to see Duke up against UConn as the underdog in a regional final game, surrounded by hostile fans in Boston, with the potential to knock them off. Not saying it would happen, but I think would be a great game nonetheless.

All this is pure speculation, and anything can happen....

Wander
02-17-2009, 11:57 AM
Say it's Memphis in the round of 16. The potential "nightmare" then is another talented, quick guard plus an athletic team. I still like our guys against Memphis. Who has Memphis played this year out of their conference, besides Tennessee?


If you want to win your bracket pools this year the best advice I can give you is pencil in Memphis to the Elite 8 or Final Four when everyone else has them upset in the 2nd round.

quickgtp
02-17-2009, 12:00 PM
Wow, blows my mind that I tried posting a similar topic the other night and the mods kept moving it into the Duke/BC thread. Thank you for allowing this one to stay put.

IMO, we will finish 9-7 in the ACC with a second round exit in the ACC tourney. We then will be looking at a 4 out West or a 5 closer to home.

I hope I am way off.....

geraldsneighbor
02-17-2009, 12:57 PM
Wow, blows my mind that I tried posting a similar topic the other night and the mods kept moving it into the Duke/BC thread. Thank you for allowing this one to stay put.

IMO, we will finish 9-7 in the ACC with a second round exit in the ACC tourney. We then will be looking at a 4 out West or a 5 closer to home.

I hope I am way off.....

You have us going 2-3 in the last 5 ACC games? Easy big guy.

Also, Memphis hasn't really had any quality wins outside of beating a slumping Gonzaga team in Spokane. I'd play zone against them and force them to hit 3's. That wouldn't be the worst match-up in the world.

I think we all know UConn is good, but Pitt proved getting Thabeet in foul trouble is the key. Plus, no Dyson hurts them. Obviously we don't have a Dajaun Blair to get us 23 boards, but maybe we can force some turnovers. We aren't as bad as everyone on here suddenly thinks.

quickgtp
02-17-2009, 02:13 PM
LOL I know, I know, but if we continue playing this way, and K sticks with this 8 man rotation, I see the following playing out:

@ St John's W
Wake Forest L
@ UMD W
FSU W
@ UNC L
@ VT L

I think you can we could go either way on the away games @ VT and UMD. I believe we win 1, but which 1, is tough to tell.

Call me negative, but I am just calling it how I see it playing out with the team playing the way it has been.....

DU Band Prez 88
02-17-2009, 02:37 PM
You have us going 2-3 in the last 5 ACC games? Easy big guy.

Also, Memphis hasn't really had any quality wins outside of beating a slumping Gonzaga team in Spokane. I'd play zone against them and force them to hit 3's. That wouldn't be the worst match-up in the world.

I think we all know UConn is good, but Pitt proved getting Thabeet in foul trouble is the key. Plus, no Dyson hurts them. Obviously we don't have a Dajaun Blair to get us 23 boards, but maybe we can force some turnovers. We aren't as bad as everyone on here suddenly thinks.

Thank you for clarification about Memphis.

He's assuming that we lose to: two of Wake, VT, and Maryland, plus Carolina. I am interested to know which of these games, aside from UNC, are guaranteed L's? We are NOT - repeat, NOT - losing to Wake Forest this weekend. Many are probably also penciling in the VT game on the road as a loss, but I don't think so, and I really think we can give Carolina a great game at the Dean Dome. GO DUKE!!

quickgtp
02-17-2009, 02:52 PM
Thank you for clarification about Memphis.

He's assuming that we lose to: two of Wake, VT, and Maryland, plus Carolina. I am interested to know which of these games, aside from UNC, are guaranteed L's? We are NOT - repeat, NOT - losing to Wake Forest this weekend. Many are probably also penciling in the VT game on the road as a loss, but I don't think so, and I really think we can give Carolina a great game at the Dean Dome. GO DUKE!!

DU you make a great point. My outlook is based solely on Duke playing the same way they have been over the recent stretch.....

Reddevil
02-17-2009, 03:39 PM
I'd prefer a 6 to a 5 seed, for the difference between a 1st-rd 11 or 12 is meaningless, between a 2d-rd 4 and 3 ditto; but there's a big diff between a Sweet 16 match-up against any of the possible 2's and any of the obvious 1's.

I agree with this premise. It looks like there may be some seperation between the 1 seeds and the 2 seeds this year. The 2 seeds will in reality be grouped in with a gaggle of about a dozen teams that are searching for lightning in a bottle. Therefore, an advantage could be had by being either a 3 or a 6 seed. That said, it always comes down to matchups, and that on any given day voodoo.

I see the guys finishing 10-6, and in good shape. The ACC tournament this year will be a real bloodbath. After that, 7 members should get in, and the conference will kick butt in the dance. Duke will be a tough out this year. I don't think this lull is the end at all. This team has not peaked yet. These losses will toughen them. Everyone thought they would take their lumps this year, but end up a stronger tournament team. Yes, one can learn while winning, but losing does have a way of driving it home. I do not think this is as simple as the team being exposed. There are not many teams that can beat them even so. Adjustments will be made, focus and execution will re-emerge, and an Elite 8 showing is quite attainable.

obie18
02-17-2009, 03:51 PM
I see the guys finishing 10-6, and in good shape.

I agree, I think we'll be in good shape.

Wander
02-17-2009, 03:52 PM
It looks like there may be some seperation between the 1 seeds and the 2 seeds this year.

I remember thinking the same thing - and having many people agree with me - in 2006. So what happens? It's the first year ever where zero 1 seeds make the Final Four. It's a crazy sport man.

Re Memphis: I agree with you guys that they'll be in trouble if they have to face teams that play zone. But if their path only includes man-to-man teams, watch out, they're running to the Elite Eight at least.

jv001
02-17-2009, 04:29 PM
I agree, I think we'll be in good shape. This March Madess playoff predictor (http://www.sportspower.com/basketball/playoff/college/1025?act=AFC-SocialMedia&Property=Sportspower&Sport=Basketball&PageType=Ratings_Rankings&Emp=TO&PostType=Forum_Reply&Site=DukeBBallReport&Dy=2_17_09&Note=) predicts that Duke will go into the tournament as the 4th ranked team overall. I think that sounds pretty accurate.

I would take 10-6 in a minute and with a win at MSG we would be more confident Then with a good showing in the ACC tournament we should be no worse than a #3 and maybe a #2. We have some things to shore up b4 that and Thursday is a good time to start. Go Duke!

UrinalCake
02-17-2009, 04:39 PM
Regarding the ACC tournament, I wonder if it would actually be better to be the 5 seed than the 4 (assuming we fall that far). The reason being that as the 5 seed, you get to play the 12 seed on the first day, which gives you a good chance at an extra win (though not guaranteed of course). As the 4 seed you'd have to play the winner of the 5-12 as your first game. It seems tough on the psyche of the players to have a week off, then lose your one game in the ACC tourney, then have another 4-5 days off before your first tournament game.

Of course, this is worst-case-scenario thinking. I'd much rather have us finish 2 or 3 in the league and win a couple games in the ACC tourney.

hurleyfor3
02-17-2009, 04:56 PM
I think we'll right the ship, but not enough to, say, win the ACC Tournament. Still, we'll look no worse in mid-March than we look now.

Remember we're getting into the time of year when EVERYONE starts dropping games. Teams play their rivals towards the end, they have trouble playing at full intensity every time out, overrated teams get exposed, that kind of thing. Happens every year. And nearly everyone loses in its conference tournament. As UConn demonstrated we're not losing games in a vacuum.

So I'll say we'll be a weak three or strong four, but maybe as high as a two depending on how the conference tournaments play out.

Wander
02-17-2009, 06:09 PM
Of course, this is worst-case-scenario thinking. I'd much rather have us finish 2 or 3 in the league and win a couple games in the ACC tourney.

As long as we stay out of Carolina's half I'm happy. I can see us winning the ACCs if we end up as the 2 or 3 seed, but not as the 4 or 5.

geraldsneighbor
02-17-2009, 09:49 PM
DU you make a great point. My outlook is based solely on Duke playing the same way they have been over the recent stretch.....

With that theory, 3 weeks ago you had us going 30-1?

MulletMan
02-17-2009, 11:19 PM
OK, since there are both seeding predictions AND tourney result predictions in this thread, I thought I might pose a question that has been on my mind since the BC loss. Here are the top 16 teams in the latest AP poll. I'd really like you to focus on these two questions and not lose them reading the rest of the post Of these teams which one would you be absolutley floored to NOT see in the Final Four? Which would you be shocked to see lose in the second round?

1. Connecticut
2. Oklahoma
3. North Carolina
4. Pittsburgh
5. Memphis
6. Michigan State
7. Louisville
8. Wake Forest
9. Duke
10. Marquette
11. Missouri
12. Villanova
13. Clemson
14. Arizona State
15. Kansas
16. Xavier


Frankly I'd be suprised if UNC doesn't make the Final Four, but we know there will be a game where they don't show up defensively. Pitt looked great last night but got little offensive production from anyone outside of Blair and Young. If UConn has Dyson, I think they win that game going away... but they don't, so are they a FF lock?

Conversely, let's look at the "worst" loss for each of these teams :

1. Connecticut (lost to Georgetown by 11)
2. Oklahoma (lost to Arkansas by 18)
3. North Carolina (lost to BC by 7)
4. Pittsburgh (lost to Nova by 10)
5. Memphis (lost to Syracuse by 7, but also lost to Xavier and Gonzaga)
6. Michigan State (lost to UNC by 39... is that worse than losing to Northwestern?)
7. Louisville (Lost to Notre Dame by 33)
8. Wake Forest (lost to Miami by 27)
9. Duke (lost to Clemson by 27)
10. Marquette (lost to Dayton by 14)
11. Missouri (lost to K-state by 16)
12. Villanova (lost to West Virginia by 21)
13. Clemson (lost to UNC by 24)
14. Arizona State (lost to Washington by 13)
15. Kansas (lost to Arizona by 17)
16. Xavier (lost to Duke by 18... and we know it wasn't that close)

So what's my point? Well, it looks to me that, arguably the #1-#4 seeds in each region are capable of taking it on the chin on any given night. Which makes me think that the NCAA tourney will be wide open!

You guys are talking about us being a 5 or 6 seed? Whaaaa? Heck, Michigan State lost to Purdue to night... they're not a lock for a 2 seed. We'll be a 2, 3 or 4 seed.

THoughts?

JDev
02-17-2009, 11:53 PM
On PTI today John Calipari voiced something that I had been thinking about the bulk of this season. To paraphrase him, he said the top teams last year were better than the top teams this year. He said this year could be interesting because there are so many teams that could win big in March. Last year's Final Four was somewhat predictable. Last year's UNC, Kansas, and Memphis were a good bit better than all competition. This year I think will be a little more of a mixed bag, with less seperation. To answer your question, the team that would shock me by having an early exit would be Pitt. I think they are so physically and mentally tough that it would be very difficult for an inferior team to get the better of them in an early round.

hurleyfor3
02-17-2009, 11:54 PM
Of these teams which one would you be absolutley floored to NOT see in the Final Four? Which would you be shocked to see lose in the second round?


I think the top three are Uconn/Unc/Pitt, with a good bit of separation after that. (I'm not sold on Oklahoma. I think they're this year's Big XII Paper Tiger.) I'd be surprised if any of those three lost in the second round, but a good team playing well can beat any of them. So at least one probably won't make it to the FF.

And that was somewhat my earlier point -- yeah, we're losing, but everyone else is losing too, and that opens up opportunities. All we've really done is drop out of the Unc/Uconn/Pitt group. (Wake has done this too.) We're just in a big jumble o' teams down there for now. Could get worse, could get a little better but can't get *too* much better at this point.

hurleyfor3
02-17-2009, 11:55 PM
Last year's Final Four was somewhat predictable.

All #1 seeds! It could not possibly have been more predictable!

JDev
02-18-2009, 12:01 AM
All #1 seeds! It could not possibly have been more predictable!

That's my point. The top was heavier last year. Pitt/UNC/UConn this year are clearly the top three, but there is not the seperation between them and everyone else like there was last year with Kansas/Memphis/UNC.

hurleyfor3
02-18-2009, 12:03 AM
Let me amend my Uconn assessment (normally I'd edit my post but I want to make this clear): The jury is somewhat out on Uconn with the injury. So it's more like a top 2½.

JDev
02-18-2009, 12:19 AM
I am not sure about Oklahoma, and whether or not they should be lumped into the "top three" discussion. I admit I have only seen them play once, but they looked good in that outing. They have the best player in the country, and that counts for something. After Dyson's injury, I would think they are just as good as UConn. I know the Big 12 is not blowing anyone's mind this year, and they are clearly the class of that league. It will be interesting to see if they put themselves in that top group.

jv001
02-18-2009, 09:08 AM
OK, since there are both seeding predictions AND tourney result predictions in this thread, I thought I might pose a question that has been on my mind since the BC loss. Here are the top 16 teams in the latest AP poll. I'd really like you to focus on these two questions and not lose them reading the rest of the post Of these teams which one would you be absolutley floored to NOT see in the Final Four? Which would you be shocked to see lose in the second round?

1. Connecticut
2. Oklahoma
3. North Carolina
4. Pittsburgh
5. Memphis
6. Michigan State
7. Louisville
8. Wake Forest
9. Duke
10. Marquette
11. Missouri
12. Villanova
13. Clemson
14. Arizona State
15. Kansas
16. Xavier


Frankly I'd be suprised if UNC doesn't make the Final Four, but we know there will be a game where they don't show up defensively. Pitt looked great last night but got little offensive production from anyone outside of Blair and Young. If UConn has Dyson, I think they win that game going away... but they don't, so are they a FF lock?

Conversely, let's look at the "worst" loss for each of these teams :

1. Connecticut (lost to Georgetown by 11)
2. Oklahoma (lost to Arkansas by 18)
3. North Carolina (lost to BC by 7)
4. Pittsburgh (lost to Nova by 10)
5. Memphis (lost to Syracuse by 7, but also lost to Xavier and Gonzaga)
6. Michigan State (lost to UNC by 39... is that worse than losing to Northwestern?)
7. Louisville (Lost to Notre Dame by 33)
8. Wake Forest (lost to Miami by 27)
9. Duke (lost to Clemson by 27)
10. Marquette (lost to Dayton by 14)
11. Missouri (lost to K-state by 16)
12. Villanova (lost to West Virginia by 21)
13. Clemson (lost to UNC by 24)
14. Arizona State (lost to Washington by 13)
15. Kansas (lost to Arizona by 17)
16. Xavier (lost to Duke by 18... and we know it wasn't that close)

So what's my point? Well, it looks to me that, arguably the #1-#4 seeds in each region are capable of taking it on the chin on any given night. Which makes me think that the NCAA tourney will be wide open!

You guys are talking about us being a 5 or 6 seed? Whaaaa? Heck, Michigan State lost to Purdue to night... they're not a lock for a 2 seed. We'll be a 2, 3 or 4 seed.

THoughts?

unc was the team that I picked for both of your questions. But I can see any of these 16 teams losing early. College BB teams are getting closer to being even when it comes to talent. Can you say parity? Go Duke!

mcdukie
02-18-2009, 09:22 AM
I think we are a 3 or a 4 seed. I also think that this will be a CRAZY tournament. I was listening to Coach Thompson (elder) on his radio show and he predicts that we will see one of the crazier tournaments. A lot of people said UCONN but they are beatable as is Oklahoma and Pitt. I must admit Carolina scares me but this is really going to come down to who gets hot at the right time, mid-majors included. There could be a George Mason out there, I just hope we don't get matched up with them.

gumbomoop
02-18-2009, 12:43 PM
OK, since there are both seeding predictions AND tourney result predictions in this thread, I thought I might pose a question that has been on my mind since the BC loss. Here are the top 16 teams in the latest AP poll. I'd really like you to focus on these two questions and not lose them reading the rest of the post Of these teams which one would you be absolutley floored to NOT see in the Final Four? Which would you be shocked to see lose in the second round?

1. Connecticut
2. Oklahoma
3. North Carolina
4. Pittsburgh
5. Memphis
6. Michigan State
7. Louisville
8. Wake Forest
9. Duke
10. Marquette
11. Missouri
12. Villanova
13. Clemson
14. Arizona State
15. Kansas
16. Xavier

So what's my point? Well, it looks to me that, arguably the #1-#4 seeds in each region are capable of taking it on the chin on any given night. Which makes me think that the NCAA tourney will be wide open!

You guys are talking about us being a 5 or 6 seed? Whaaaa? Heck, Michigan State lost to Purdue to night... they're not a lock for a 2 seed. We'll be a 2, 3 or 4 seed.

THoughts?

I'd be absolutely floored if UNC isn't in F4, and real, real surprised if Pitt isn't there.

To me, 2d rd shocking losses would be teams 1-4. Unlike you -- I'm inferring here, so let me know if I've misunderstood -- I do think there's a noticeable gap between the top 4 and the next 10-15. And that leads me to your perfectly reasonable "Whaaaa" comment.

I don't expect Duke to lose in 2d rd [and no, I'm not implying we'll lose in 1st.....]. However, in my earlier post in this thread [#9], I said I hope we do well enough from here on out to get a 3 seed, but, "depending," we could be anywhere from a 2 to a 6. That latter possibility would certainly qualify me under your "Whaaaa" comment as among the semi-loony pessimists. My view, realistic, I think, is that we must -- and I do think we will -- right the ship with a strong win over StJ, such win in turn a prerequisite to a must win over Wake.

So, my point in even raising the possibility of a 4-6 seed in my earlier post, admittedly at the pessimistic end of "depending," was simply that a 6 seed would actually be preferable to a 4-5 for an Elite 8 run in the tourney. And my logic (?) there depends on the view -- mine, but I infer not yours -- that we want to avoid UNC, Pitt, Okla, and UConn until Elite 8.

quickgtp
02-18-2009, 12:48 PM
With that theory, 3 weeks ago you had us going 30-1?

no because our competition wasn't as difficult at that point IMO.

MulletMan
02-18-2009, 01:09 PM
I'd be absolutely floored if UNC isn't in F4, and real, real surprised if Pitt isn't there.

To me, 2d rd shocking losses would be teams 1-4. Unlike you -- I'm inferring here, so let me know if I've misunderstood -- I do think there's a noticeable gap between the top 4 and the next 10-15. And that leads me to your perfectly reasonable "Whaaaa" comment.

I don't expect Duke to lose in 2d rd [and no, I'm not implying we'll lose in 1st.....]. However, in my earlier post in this thread [#9], I said I hope we do well enough from here on out to get a 3 seed, but, "depending," we could be anywhere from a 2 to a 6. That latter possibility would certainly qualify me under your "Whaaaa" comment as among the semi-loony pessimists. My view, realistic, I think, is that we must -- and I do think we will -- right the ship with a strong win over StJ, such win in turn a prerequisite to a must win over Wake.

So, my point in even raising the possibility of a 4-6 seed in my earlier post, admittedly at the pessimistic end of "depending," was simply that a 6 seed would actually be preferable to a 4-5 for an Elite 8 run in the tourney. And my logic (?) there depends on the view -- mine, but I infer not yours -- that we want to avoid UNC, Pitt, Okla, and UConn until Elite 8.

I enjoy the bolded phrase!

Well, I'm not as sold on Pitt. I mean against UConn, minus the last two minutes of the game when Fields woke up, they were a two man team... Blair and Young. That was it. This is sort of the same issue I have with Oklahoma... it Griffin and some other guys who depend too much on him. I don't think there's a great gap between the top 4 and the rest. And, unlike in past years, I think that each of the top 4 projected seeds has a fatal flaw.

Let's take a look at the projected brackets just to illustrate this point. Assuming each one seed wins thier first round game...

UConn could play FSU... FSU has a ton of size, athletic guards and Douglas who can go off from outside thus negating Thabeet.

Pitt could play Texas, who, while underachieving as of late, has some pretty solid athletes and was ranked highly earlier in the year. I think that any Big East team can lose to a team that gets hot.

Oklahoma could end up playing VaTech... clearly VT can play and beat good teams. No reason that they couldn't KO OU if they put the clamps on Griffin.

UNC could end up play Dayton... (yes... I am biased as a UD alum) but Dayton can run, or they can slow it down. they have a superstar-caliber player in Chris Wright and good PG play.

Are these things likely to happen? No. Would any of them suprise me? No.

NSDukeFan
02-18-2009, 01:17 PM
OK, since there are both seeding predictions AND tourney result predictions in this thread, I thought I might pose a question that has been on my mind since the BC loss. Here are the top 16 teams in the latest AP poll. I'd really like you to focus on these two questions and not lose them reading the rest of the post Of these teams which one would you be absolutley floored to NOT see in the Final Four? Which would you be shocked to see lose in the second round?

1. Connecticut
2. Oklahoma
3. North Carolina
4. Pittsburgh
5. Memphis
6. Michigan State
7. Louisville
8. Wake Forest
9. Duke
10. Marquette
11. Missouri
12. Villanova
13. Clemson
14. Arizona State
15. Kansas
16. Xavier


Frankly I'd be suprised if UNC doesn't make the Final Four, but we know there will be a game where they don't show up defensively. Pitt looked great last night but got little offensive production from anyone outside of Blair and Young. If UConn has Dyson, I think they win that game going away... but they don't, so are they a FF lock?

Conversely, let's look at the "worst" loss for each of these teams :

1. Connecticut (lost to Georgetown by 11)
2. Oklahoma (lost to Arkansas by 18)
3. North Carolina (lost to BC by 7)
4. Pittsburgh (lost to Nova by 10)
5. Memphis (lost to Syracuse by 7, but also lost to Xavier and Gonzaga)
6. Michigan State (lost to UNC by 39... is that worse than losing to Northwestern?)
7. Louisville (Lost to Notre Dame by 33)
8. Wake Forest (lost to Miami by 27)
9. Duke (lost to Clemson by 27)
10. Marquette (lost to Dayton by 14)
11. Missouri (lost to K-state by 16)
12. Villanova (lost to West Virginia by 21)
13. Clemson (lost to UNC by 24)
14. Arizona State (lost to Washington by 13)
15. Kansas (lost to Arizona by 17)
16. Xavier (lost to Duke by 18... and we know it wasn't that close)

So what's my point? Well, it looks to me that, arguably the #1-#4 seeds in each region are capable of taking it on the chin on any given night. Which makes me think that the NCAA tourney will be wide open!

You guys are talking about us being a 5 or 6 seed? Whaaaa? Heck, Michigan State lost to Purdue to night... they're not a lock for a 2 seed. We'll be a 2, 3 or 4 seed.

THoughts?

I would be surprised to see the top 4 lose in the second round and I would be surprised (though definitely not floored) to see Carolina get beat before the Final Four. Besides that, it's wide open and as much as Duke has struggled the past 2+ weeks, so have a lot of teams that play in "real" conferences. I don't know who outside of the top 4, I pick ahead of Duke on a neutral floor. This is with my expectation that we will turn things around starting Thursday and a nice momentum win on the weekend.

Rudy
02-18-2009, 01:42 PM
Of these teams which one would you be absolutley floored to NOT see in the
Final Four? Which would you be shocked to see lose in the second round?

1. Connecticut
2. Oklahoma
3. North Carolina
4. Pittsburgh
5. Memphis
6. Michigan State
7. Louisville
8. Wake Forest
9. Duke
10. Marquette

I would be surprised but not shocked to see none of the top 4 in the final four. I would be more surprised if all 4 got there. The final four is always wide open IMO. Once the tournament gets to the elite eight, the teams are either very good or on hot streaks that can easily continue for another game (witness George Mason and Valvano's NC State).

The top 4 on the list are great teams but can be beaten, obviously. These kids are 19-23 years old (with the rare exception) and emotions can interfere with, as well as produce, peak performances. Hell, that's why I love the college game so much.

I would be most shocked to see Conn or UNC lose in the second round. Their coaches have been through it so much I would be very surprised if they let the players start to think they can win just by showing up, which seems to be why the big upsets happen.

The rest of the list are good teams, any of which could win it all if they get hot (which requires some key players to get hot for the length of the tournament).

The depression some of us feel is that there is scant evidence for several games now that enough of Duke's guys are on the verge of getting hot long enough to sustain a long drive through the tournaments. We hope that they can and will because we believe they have the ability. We love them anyway because they play with a lot of heart. There is time to get where they need to be. I'll cheer them on.

gumbomoop
02-18-2009, 02:58 PM
I enjoy the bolded phrase!

Well, I'm not as sold on Pitt. I mean against UConn, minus the last two minutes of the game when Fields woke up, they were a two man team... Blair and Young. That was it. This is sort of the same issue I have with Oklahoma... it Griffin and some other guys who depend too much on him. I don't think there's a great gap between the top 4 and the rest. And, unlike in past years, I think that each of the top 4 projected seeds has a fatal flaw.

Let's take a look at the projected brackets just to illustrate this point. Assuming each one seed wins thier first round game...

UConn could play FSU... FSU has a ton of size, athletic guards and Douglas who can go off from outside thus negating Thabeet.

Pitt could play Texas, who, while underachieving as of late, has some pretty solid athletes and was ranked highly earlier in the year. I think that any Big East team can lose to a team that gets hot.

Oklahoma could end up playing VaTech... clearly VT can play and beat good teams. No reason that they couldn't KO OU if they put the clamps on Griffin.

UNC could end up play Dayton... (yes... I am biased as a UD alum) but Dayton can run, or they can slow it down. they have a superstar-caliber player in Chris Wright and good PG play.

Are these things likely to happen? No. Would any of them suprise me? No.

Ok, I see your several well-argued points. My different take: I'm totally taken with Pitt's toughness, and the comment by some poster on some recent thread that Blair wanted to come to Duke, well, it hurts a lot that that couldn't/didn't happen, because he's a fierce and often joyous player. He seems to have fun out there. I believe in Pitt, have since last year, and thought them UNC's chief threat since beginning of this season. Admittedly they go only 7-deep, and they're probably not a good come-from-behind team, but I will indeed by shocked if they get knocked out early, anytime before Elite 8, and even then. I see them in the NC game.

I can understand why some aren't sold on Okla, and frankly, maybe it's my Capel-bias that's clouding [or sunshining] my assessment of Okla. But I have seen them 3 times and am in awe of Blake Griffin, quite impressed with Warren and their PG as well, who has a solid a/to ratio. Another 7-deep team, and I didn't say I'd be "shocked" if they don't make F4, but will be much surprised to see an early exit.

UNC - God bless your Flyers if they get, and depose, the Heels in rd 2, but that scenario qualifies you as a semi-loony optimist.

UConn - I don't know how deep they'll go, and maybe hedging a bit on them says I need to rethink my view that there's a major gap after the top 4.

On a lighter note, re semi-loonies of various stripes, I do want to remind my fellow, if occasional, semi-loony pessimists, that ..... I'm one of you! I'd guess I'm slightly less pessimistic, but I'm confident that I'm consistently loonier. And I can prove it. To wit: in one of my first posts back last Sept-ish, I suggested that Scheyer remain as our 6th man -- I envisioned a great battle between Scheyer and Danny Green for best 6th man in the nation -- but that wasn't the really loony part. For I went further, way into loony-land, and suggested the K start, not EWill, but ..... Marty! My reasoning was.... never mind. The point here is that not only would that suggestion qualify me as totally, rather than merely semi, loony, but [I'm laughing at how loony this is], I still believe it! Certifiably loony.

Udaman
02-18-2009, 03:21 PM
I would be floored completely if UNC is not in the Final Four. They will be a #1 seed, they are hungry for it, they have the most talent, they have a great coach, and they'll be playing in Greensboro for the first round - which is a lock for the Sweet 16. Whoever is in their bracket will be bumming, because UNC WILL make the Final Four (and should win it all).

Otherwise....I guess I would be surprised if Pitt and Oklahoma don't make it...but not stunned. Both have a superstar player, both play good defense, both tend to get a lot of rebounds - both have good coaches. They could certainly lose...but they should make it.

Then there really is nobody else. Louisville has looked great...but then they go cold from outside and they lose. Memphis is good, and they have the experience of playing in the Final Four last year, which will help. I also like Louisville, Wake, Clemson, Marquette, Missouri, Kansas and Arizona State, and yes even Duke (with the right draw).

But I don't see this as a year when some mid-major gets there. The Final Four will be made of one of those 13 teams. I don't have UConn in there, because without Dyson they are toast.

DU Band Prez 88
02-18-2009, 11:39 PM
I think we are a 3 or a 4 seed. I also think that this will be a CRAZY tournament. I was listening to Coach Thompson (elder) on his radio show and he predicts that we will see one of the crazier tournaments. A lot of people said UCONN but they are beatable as is Oklahoma and Pitt. I must admit Carolina scares me but this is really going to come down to who gets hot at the right time, mid-majors included. There could be a George Mason out there, I just hope we don't get matched up with them.

I agree, I think it's going to be another tournament like these years - and hope it will be different in that Duke will go farther than the sweet 16 (where it ended in each of these years for us).

Clearly the top conferences are the ACC & Big East, and I expect 3 of 4 of the teams to come from these two conferences. I agree with what another poster noted that the likely #1 seeds are not as dominant as last year, or other years such as 2005. Right now my guesses is that Pitt will be the #1 most likely to advance. And, like in 2000 (not as crazy a tournament as 2006, but close), when Michigan St. advanced as the only #1 seed, I could also easily see a scenario such as two lower-seeded Big East teams playing for a regional title and then playing Pitt, like Purdue (6 seed) and Wisconsin (8 seed) did in 2000 with Wisconsin advancing to play MSU that year. UNC could very well make it to two Final Fours in a row, but depending on the matchups I could also see them getting knocked off by a #8 seed in the 2nd round, just like UNC did to Stanford in 2000. I definitely can see UConn getting knocked out in the 2nd round.

The top conferences, Big East and ACC, will definitely get the most teams into the Sweet 16. And, I'd say at this point the Final Four will include 2 Big East teams, 1 ACC team, and then a non-#1 seed team either from one of the power conferences, or a mid-major (Butler?) that gets really hot for four straight games and surprises one team after another. Remember how Wichita State got hot in 2006 as well...

Just some thoughts...but I agree that it is very likely to be a crazy tournament with lots of upsets and some unusual seeds in the Final Four.

geraldsneighbor
02-19-2009, 12:19 AM
I agree, I think it's going to be another tournament like these years - and hope it will be different in that Duke will go farther than the sweet 16 (where it ended in each of these years for us).

Clearly the top conferences are the ACC & Big East, and I expect 3 of 4 of the teams to come from these two conferences. I agree with what another poster noted that the likely #1 seeds are not as dominant as last year, or other years such as 2005. Right now my guesses is that Pitt will be the #1 most likely to advance. And, like in 2000 (not as crazy a tournament as 2006, but close), when Michigan St. advanced as the only #1 seed, I could also easily see a scenario such as two lower-seeded Big East teams playing for a regional title and then playing Pitt, like Purdue (6 seed) and Wisconsin (8 seed) did in 2000 with Wisconsin advancing to play MSU that year. UNC could very well make it to two Final Fours in a row, but depending on the matchups I could also see them getting knocked off by a #8 seed in the 2nd round, just like UNC did to Stanford in 2000. I definitely can see UConn getting knocked out in the 2nd round.

The top conferences, Big East and ACC, will definitely get the most teams into the Sweet 16. And, I'd say at this point the Final Four will include 2 Big East teams, 1 ACC team, and then a non-#1 seed team either from one of the power conferences, or a mid-major (Butler?) that gets really hot for four straight games and surprises one team after another. Remember how Wichita State got hot in 2006 as well...

Just some thoughts...but I agree that it is very likely to be a crazy tournament with lots of upsets and some unusual seeds in the Final Four.


I think we will find out alot about Butler on Saturday. They lost again tonight, and losing 3 straight this time of year as a mid-major will leave a dent in your seeding.

tele
02-20-2009, 12:58 AM
If Duke is a 4 seed, think how tough people will call that regional bracket! I think they'll be a 3 seed, but should be a 2.