How Much Responsibility Do the Coaches Have?

[NYC Duke Fan]

I know that it is probably sacreligious to suggest criticism of Coach K and his staff and I might even get an infraction for this post, but I will bear it.

For the past few years, the team has seemed to have peaked early and has looked fatigued at the end of the year, is this the result of Coach K not using his bench properly and giving experience to most of his players ? Prior to the season beginning, I remember Coach K saying that this was the deepest team that he has had in a few years...what happened to the depth ?

Since Shelden Williams Duke has not recruited an inside presence that has been very effective. I know that Patterson and Monroe were recruited heavily but were there any real back up plans if they decided to to matriculate elsewhere?

It does not seem to me that Brian Zoubek has become the inside force that could be expected of someone his size....is that the fault of coaching ? I remember that there were thoughts of him becoming similar to the center who became a force at Pittsburgh, ( I forgot his name ).

I know that recruiting is nowhere near an exact science and it is easy to spread rumors, but if my recollection is correct, both Monroe and Kenny Boynton were Duke fans growing up and Duke was always listed as the team to beat in recruiting them, yet for some reason Coach K could not close the deal with either of them...I remembered a silly rumor about Coach K pulling up to Boynton's house in a limo which turned off the Boynton family, but I gave no credence to that nonsense.

Did the coaching staff overvalue Nolan Smith, Elliot Williams as to their ability to make immediate contributions., neither of them seem to have much of an offensive game. In the case of Smith, he seems to be more tentative than he was earlier in the season.Is he hurt ? With Paulus graduating, Nolan Smith has to be the PG next year...is he up to the task, this has be in the hands of the coaches because if for some reason he is not, than Coach K has no back up plan. What if Smith is injured then what...once again no back up plan ?

I am a big fan of Greg Paulus...I just like the guy...but he does have defensive liabilities and the coaching staff doesn't seem to make adjustments for him when he plays.

Basketball has changed over the years and for whatever the reason, maybe it is the academic requirements of Duke, but Coach K doesn't recruit the athletic big men that you see in other ACC teams, like Wake has done, Clemson, Florida State , Va Tech. or BC has done. Yes, I understand that there is no comparison academically with Clemson , Va Tech or Fla State, but there have to be some similar athletic big men who would meet the academic requirements at Duke. I am not naive to think that there is the same academic requirements for a basketball player as there is for a regular student applying to Duke who is not an athlete.

Does the coaching staff have to take responsibility for the team just not showing up for the Clemson game ? The other loses to UNC, Wake, BC and Michigan, the team played hard and could have won.

Yes we have been spoiled by the success of the Duke basketball program which was the pre-eminent one in all of college basketball. It is no longer the one.

Next year might be a little better or it might not be..could be the same as this year...unless Henderson and Singler leave, then who knows what?

[Matches]

I'm not sure exactly how the coaching staff would go about "taking responsibility". If it's as simple as K saying mea culpa, he'd probably do that anyway. I've heard him do it many times before.

Ultimately the coaching staff should get as much blame for poor performances as it gets credit for good performances - whatever you feel that is. K, Wojo et al do not take any shots, grab any rebounds. They recruit and train the people who do.

[doctorhook]

Coaches, like presidents get too much credit and too much blame. Switch the Duke/UNC talent, and the relative outcomes would likely not be a whole lot different. It all starts with recruiting. Doc

[NYC Duke Fan]

Coaches, like presidents get too much credit and too much blame. Switch the Duke/UNC talent, and the relative outcomes would likely not be a whole lot different. It all starts with recruiting. Doc

If as you say ," it starts with recruiting ", then Coach K has to shoulder the blame because his recruiting in the last few years have not been up to his previous standards.

[whereinthehellami]

Coaches, like presidents get too much credit and too much blame. Switch the Duke/UNC talent, and the relative outcomes would likely not be a whole lot different. It all starts with recruiting. Doc

While it all starts with recruiting there are other things that factor into the equation. Coaching methodology, coaching adjustments (xs and Os), and player development.

[dukelifer]

Does the coaching staff have to take responsibility for the team just not showing up for the Clemson game ? The other loses to UNC, Wake, BC and Michigan, the team played hard and could have won.

Yes we have been spoiled by the success of the Duke basketball program which was the pre-eminent one in all of college basketball. It is no longer the one.

Next year might be a little better or it might not be..could be the same as this year...unless Henderson and Singler leave, then who knows what?

It is easy to lay criticism on Duke because the expectation is that they be national championship caliber every year out. But why should Duke land every top kid they go after? Lots of programs now exposure on TV. There are many nice places to "go to school" and play basketball. But for fading or failing to win it all, you can lay this criticism on many many teams and coaches- not just Duke and and Coach K. Why did UNC play like they were not ready in last year's final four- clearly they had the talent- must be the coaching then- but wait this year they are a lock to win it this year- must be the coaching. Wake who somehow has the talent to beat Duke and UNC this year- gets killed by Miami and loses a bunch on the road. Must be not landing that great wing player or maybe it is the coaching. Sometimes teams just don't have IT. They have talent- they have experience - they have coaching experience but not IT- that something that makes them able to win 6 games in March. It is a rare thing to win it all. Duke is still a pre-eminent college team because they are still in the conversation and they are a consistently near the top every year. Duke has not become Houston or UNLV. It is still worth jumping out on the floor when you beat Duke. When fans stop doing that and when Duke is no longer mentioned in the conversation- then it has officially faded. That has not happened yet. This Duke team is just like every other team out there. It has its weaknesses. But even an imperfect team can come together and win it all. I am not sure this team has IT. But they are Duke and Coach K is still coach K and we watch and hope and we will see if they can make a run- that is what Sports is about.

[doctorhook]

whereintthehellami,

You are correct, but if you do not have the material to begin with, you will have limited upside. This team is talented, I am just not sure it has the pieces necessary for a FF run, and unlikely a NC run. But, as we all know, March can produce strange things, so who knows with this team. Again, talented teams don't always win it all, but teams with inadequate talent ( NC talent ) are very unlikely to win it all. Doc

[6th Man]

I realize Coach K has made Duke basketball one of the top elite basketball programs in the country. Unbelievable players and unbelievable success. However, I believe he has not done a great job in the last several years. Playing man to man defense with Paulus and Zoubek in the game is suicide. Paulus is a great kid and works as hard as he can. But let's be realistic...there is absolutely no way that he can physically guard Lawson man to man. So why do it? I have read the arguement that Coach K doesn't dribble or doesn't shoot. Well he doesn't seem to make adjustments in games either. (however, I was encouraged to see some zone and trapping in the B.C. game) The short bench and lack of player development bothers me too. People aregue that E-Will's shooting percentage is a reason he doesn't play. One could make the arguement that the fear of the quick hook back to the bench doesn't allow him to be himself. Tightens him up when he is in the game. The kid could score in bunches in high school. He is extremely quick and athletic. Plumlee seems to have more upside than any of our big men. How will he develop on the pine? Coach K is a legend and deserves all of the credit in the world for making Duke what it is. But can he not become a victim of his own success? Can the game not pass him by? Can his stubborness not become a fault? Does being great for a long time make people invulnerable to mistakes?

[cruxer]

Recruiting is certainly a part, but coaches also need a crystal ball! Think back to when this year's seniors were being recruited. Guess who the #1 big guy was? Not Hansbrough, but Josh McRoberts, and K got him. Unfortunately, nobody could predict that he'd be a head case who'd bolt for the NBA after 2 years (with an implicit push from the coaches?).

That trade-off has defined the relative paths of the 2 programs for the past couple of years. Here's to hoping a similar trade-off happens in our favor in the next couple of classes! After all these things happen to everybody. Remember Grant Hill grew up a Hoyas fan and his pops wanted him to go to Carolina...

-c

[bgibbs1001]

While I have the greatest respect for K and what he has done at Duke I must disagree that he is the one that made Duke an elite basketball progam. I have to give that credit to Vic Bubas. K did however continue and expand the tradition of Duke basketball.

[NYC Duke Fan]

Recruiting is certainly a part, but coaches also need a crystal ball! Think back to when this year's seniors were being recruited. Guess who the #1 big guy was? Not Hansbrough, but Josh McRoberts, and K got him. Unfortunately, nobody could predict that he'd be a head case who'd bolt for the NBA after 2 years (with an implicit push from the coaches?).

That trade-off has defined the relative paths of the 2 programs for the past couple of years. Here's to hoping a similar trade-off happens in our favor in the next couple of classes! After all these things happen to everybody. Remember Grant Hill grew up a Hoyas fan and his pops wanted him to go to Carolina...

-c

My daughter went to school with Grant Hill and actually his Dad wanted him to go to Yale or Princeton , but in the end Grant wanted more national exposure.

[NYC Duke Fan]

whereintthehellami,

You are correct, but if you do not have the material to begin with, you will have limited upside. This team is talented, I am just not sure it has the pieces necessary for a FF run, and unlikely a NC run. But, as we all know, March can produce strange things, so who knows with this team. Again, talented teams don't always win it all, but teams with inadequate talent ( NC talent ) are very unlikely to win it all. Doc

Not sure that I agree with you. Florida and Kansas were very talented teams the last 2 years and the argument could be made that Florida was a talented team 3 years ago.

[allenmurray]

While I have the greatest respect for K and what he has done at Duke I must disagree that he is the one that made Duke an elite basketball progam. I have to give that credit to Vic Bubas. K did however continue and expand the tradition of Duke basketball.

Pre Coach K Duke was a traditional power, a storied program, a great program, among the best in the country. But pre-K it had won no national championships; since K's arrival it has won three. I'm not sure you enter the elite status until you have won at least one national championship.

There are well over 300 schools in NCAA Division I basketball. 300+ of them have never won a national championship. Before Coach K we were in that group. Since K's arrival we have moved from that group to the group of only 35 teams have ever won a National Championship. Then into the group of only 14 who have won two or more national championships. Then into the elite group that have won 3 or more. No offense whatsoever to Bubas, but it was K that took us from great to Elite.

[dukelifer]

My daughter went to school with Grant Hill and actually his Dad wanted him to go to Yale or Princeton , but in the end Grant wanted more national exposure.

Did she know Grant? According to the well told story from Grant's Mom- she wanted him to attend Georgetown University, his father wanted him to go to University of North Carolina. I am pretty sure no one ever seriously considered Yale or Princeton except perhaps before he was an elite high school player.

[cruxer]

Did she know Grant? According to the well told story from Grant's Mom- she wanted him to attend Georgetown University, his father wanted him to go to University of North Carolina. I am pretty sure no one ever seriously considered Yale or Princeton except perhaps before he was an elite high school player.

This is the story I've heard. I've also heard somewhere that he actually visited Duke because it was so close to UNC and he was already doing a visit there. I don't know how true that is, but that doesn't stop me from bringing it up to all my friends who are 'holes fans as often as possible! :)

-c

[dukelifer]

Basketball has changed over the years and for whatever the reason, maybe it is the academic requirements of Duke, but Coach K doesn't recruit the athletic big men that you see in other ACC teams, like Wake has done, Clemson, Florida State , Va Tech. or BC has done. Yes, I understand that there is no comparison academically with Clemson , Va Tech or Fla State, but there have to be some similar athletic big men who would meet the academic requirements at Duke. I am not naive to think that there is the same academic requirements for a basketball player as there is for a regular student applying to Duke who is not an athlete.



As has been long discussed, Duke has recruited and landed its share of athletic big men in the very recent past. Many of them have not panned out for a lot of reasons. But, I ask what have all those athletic big men done for "Clemson, Florida State , Va Tech. or BC "? Did all those athletic big men lead their teams to final fours and championships or did they brick free throws in critical moments of games. Not every player is a good fit with the school, the program or the coaches? There is also no guarantee that the same player would perform the same on a different team. Playing for Duke is a bit like playing for the Yankees. Sometimes the pressure and attention and scrutiny is too much. If you read the piece on Shane you can see that sometimes it takes a special player with certain intangibles to take a team to the championship level. Grant Hill did that for Duke in the 1990's and Shane did that in 2001. Patrick Patterson has not taken Kentucky, an even more storied program than Duke, to the next level- in fact you could argue that they have had their struggles with him at center.

As I said, I have no idea if Duke will ever win a championship again- but they will be in mix. But in the end it will take either a special player on a good team or a good to great team playing its best team basketball in March to get them there.

[doctorhook]

NYC Duke fan,

How do we disagree? I am saying that it requires a certain talent level to become a FF/NC team. There is often a cinderella team, but usually that team loses in the elite 8/semi game. Fla/Kansas had that talent, I am not sure this team does, therefore the upside is limited. Doc

[bjornolf]

It is easy to lay criticism on Duke because the expectation is that they be national championship caliber every year out.

I agree 100%. I have always thought it was silly to expect us to be competing for the championship every year. We always WANT to be, but so does everybody. You can't win them all. But in the seven seasons since we won it all, we've bowed out in the sweet 16 four times, in the final four once, and in the 1st or 2nd round twice. We haven't been past the sweet 16 once since 2004. We haven't been past round 2 since 2006. In most of those years, we were high seeds, but we didn't live up to them. It's tough to watch your team seemingly decline. Final Four, sweet sixteen, sweet sixteen, round 1, round 2. To many fans, that is a disturbing trend. The last four years are NOT elite program results. They are good program results. They are solid program results. They are NOT elite program results. And now we are starting to see things like that loss to Clemson, and lacking toughness down the stretch of games, and missing shots and losing games in the last couple minutes, and guys going into "slumps" at the worst possible times and looking VERY tired at the exact WRONG time of season. These are things that worry a LOT of fans when they start looking like trends. And they're starting to look like trends, at least for this team. There's still time to recover and make a good tournament showing, but we need to get on it if it's going to happen this year.

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

As has been long discussed, Duke has recruited and landed its share of athletic big men in the very recent past.

I'm not sure what you mean by "very recent past." Going back to the Selected 6 we've brought in the following PF/C's:

2003-4 No one (Deng was #1 SF)
2004-5: No one (David was the 13th best SF)
2005-6: McRoberts (best PF), Boat (3rd best C) Boykin (20th best PF)
2006-7: Z (7th best C), Lance (4th best PF)
2007-8: No one (Kyle was #1 SF)
2008-09: Plumlee (14th best PF)

So in that time we've brought in 2 C's: Boat (http://duke.scout.com/a.z?s=167&p=8&c=1&nid=816839)and Z (http://duke.scout.com/a.z?s=167&p=8&c=1&nid=1013061). Both were 4 star players that I wouldn't describe as "athletic".

We've brought in 4 PF's. McBob (http://duke.scout.com/a.z?s=167&p=8&c=1&nid=450066)clearly underachieved. Five star Lance Thomas (http://duke.scout.com/a.z?s=167&p=8&c=1&nid=1113084) is especially surprising since his strengths are listed as "rebounding" and "gets to the free throw line." That's 6 post players in 6 seasons. Two of them could reasonably have been expected to make an impact. Both massively underachieved but even if either had lived up to the hype they could have been expected to have jumped to the NBA much sooner.

I'm not sure how we measure "our share." Against past results? Against other top teams (UConn, UNC, etc.)? Against players who went elsewhere (often without even giving us a visit)? Sugarcoating the problem doesn't make it go away. It just leads to lots of unrealistic expectations that become confusion and anger (often directed at the players). If your 10 year old son is playing against 15 year old HS students you don't pretend he's just as good and then berate him for failing to keep up with/beat them. You temper your expectations and cheer for him to have a good time and do the best he can.

[sagegrouse]

This is the story I've heard. I've also heard somewhere that he actually visited Duke because it was so close to UNC and he was already doing a visit there. I don't know how true that is, but that doesn't stop me from bringing it up to all my friends who are 'holes fans as often as possible! :)

-c

The mind grows hazy (and I can't find my Bill Brill book on the 1991 championship team that dealt with the recruiting of Grant). But IIRC, Duke was in the hunt for Grant from the gitgo. The upset in the recruitment of a DC-area athlete was Danny Ferry, whose father (Bullets GM Bob) thought he was almost certain to play for Dean Smith. In 1984-85, UNC was a far better known program.

The story from the Brill book I remember best is that when the Hills came to campus, K had Tommy Amaker and Billy King show them around campus. Calvin Hill was blown away by these two young Duke graduates and K products. Good move.

sagegrouse

[miramar]

I'm not sure what you mean by "very recent past." Going back to the Selected 6 we've brought in the following PF/C's:

2003-4 No one (Deng was #1 SF)
2004-5: No one (David was the 13th best SF)
2005-6: McRoberts (best PF), Boat (3rd best C) Boykin (20th best PF)
2006-7: Z (7th best C), Lance (4th best PF)
2007-8: No one (Kyle was #1 SF)
2008-09: Plumlee (14th best PF)

So in that time we've brought in 2 C's: Boat (http://duke.scout.com/a.z?s=167&p=8&c=1&nid=816839)and Z (http://duke.scout.com/a.z?s=167&p=8&c=1&nid=1013061). Both were 4 star players that I wouldn't describe as "athletic".

We've brought in 4 PF's. McBob (http://duke.scout.com/a.z?s=167&p=8&c=1&nid=450066)clearly underachieved. Five star Lance Thomas (http://duke.scout.com/a.z?s=167&p=8&c=1&nid=1113084) is especially surprising since his strengths are listed as "rebounding" and "gets to the free throw line." That's 6 post players in 6 seasons. Two of them could reasonably have been expected to make an impact. Both massively underachieved but even if either had lived up to the hype they could have been expected to have jumped to the NBA much sooner.

I'm not sure how we measure "our share." Against past results? Against other top teams (UConn, UNC, etc.)? Against players who went elsewhere (often without even giving us a visit)? Sugarcoating the problem doesn't make it go away. It just leads to lots of unrealistic expectations that become confusion and anger (often directed at the players). If your 10 year old son is playing against 15 year old HS students you don't pretend he's just as good and then berate him for failing to keep up with/beat them. You temper your expectations and cheer for him to have a good time and do the best he can.

Good points on recruiting, but I think this goes beyond the bigs. If we look at today's juniors and seniors in rivals.com, Duke had outstanding recruiting classes that unfortunately have not quite worked out as expected. I have no doubt that the coaches have developed them as much as possible, so I don't know if it's bad luck or what.

We can look at the expectations vs. the results:

Seniors:

Paulus, #1 rated PG, has only started a few games this year.
Pocius #12 SG, no playing time.
Boykin #24 SF, long gone.
Boateng #19 PF, long gone.
McRoberts #1 PF, long gone (that was expected, the results were not).
McClure #21 SF from 2004 who has more than met expectations.

Juniors:

Henderson #2 PG and living up to his billing, especially this year.
Scheyer #15 SG who has more than lived up to expectations, but is going through a slump.
Thomas #13 SF, 5.5 PPG, 3.2 rebounds.
Zoubek #3 C, 5.6 PPG, 4.4 rebounds.

With perhaps one exception, all appear to be good kids, but I would say that only three of ten have worked out as well as expected. I don't think that any other coaches would have gotten more out of them, and clearly Duke was not the only school who thought highly of them so that's not the problem either.

I don't know the answer, but we certainly seem to be in a difficult cycle that I hope we'll get out of. This is a long way from the 2001 championship team, which had 5 future NBA starters (even if Jason only started 54 games during his too-short career). Back then a disappointment like Burgess was more the exception than the rule.

[bjornolf]

Maybe the problem is Henderson then. Don't get me wrong, he's a great player and we'd be in REAL trouble w/o him, but if he was the #2 PG in his class and we expected him to be a PG, then that's kind of a problem.

[dukelifer]

I agree 100%. I have always thought it was silly to expect us to be competing for the championship every year. We always WANT to be, but so does everybody. You can't win them all. But in the seven seasons since we won it all, we've bowed out in the sweet 16 four times, in the final four once, and in the 1st or 2nd round twice. We haven't been past the sweet 16 once since 2004. We haven't been past round 2 since 2006. In most of those years, we were high seeds, but we didn't live up to them. It's tough to watch your team seemingly decline. Final Four, sweet sixteen, sweet sixteen, round 1, round 2. To many fans, that is a disturbing trend. The last four years are NOT elite program results. They are good program results. They are solid program results. They are NOT elite program results. And now we are starting to see things like that loss to Clemson, and lacking toughness down the stretch of games, and missing shots and losing games in the last couple minutes, and guys going into "slumps" at the worst possible times and looking VERY tired at the exact WRONG time of season. These are things that worry a LOT of fans when they start looking like trends. And they're starting to look like trends, at least for this team. There's still time to recover and make a good tournament showing, but we need to get on it if it's going to happen this year.

I wonder which programs people consider to be elite right now. Given their recent NCAA success, UCLA has to be there. Do you consider them to be an elite program, now? Their trend has been just getting there and then falling short, 3 times in a row. Their great defense just wasn't great enough- their elite big man- just wasn't big enough. Is that the measure of an elite team- getting there but falling short multiple times? How is the elite program Florida doing right now? Has Billy lost his ability to coach or recruit? Florida should be getting to the final four every year- with that location - that ability to attract players. There are no logical reasons for their failing to make the tourney last year. Come on, this is Florida basketball we are talking about.

Having watched Duke get close in the 80's and miss it all and get crushed by the biggest margin in NCAA final history- I wondered if Duke would ever really be a champion- the losses - the trends - "the guys going into "slumps" at the worst possible times and looking VERY tired at the exact WRONG time of season" was very wearing on the fan base. Getting tired and slumping in the regular season is NOTHING like doing this on the biggest stage over multiple years. Then Duke won and I realized that this is never a given - it may never happen again- like for Georgetown or Marquette or Villanova- those small schools that just happened to pull it all together at the end of the year. Then they won three- and I felt like a lucky guy because the team I cheer for got to cut those nets down thrice and made history. For some reason there is a sentiment that Duke will somehow be elevated if they just get to a Final Four again every year like UCLA has done recently. Well those days have passed. Duke is ONLY elevated if they win it all again as is for UNC, and the few others who have multiple championships. We watch to see if Duke can get there again. If not, we watch them regroup and try once more. As we saw in 1991, trends can stop in an instant. When Duke is slumping or going through a bad stretch I imagine what it must be like to be a Clemson, BC or Wake fan and to know that I have never seen my team cut down those nets at the end of the year, and that perhaps beating that team that did it three times just might be the biggest highlight of their season.

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

I suppose the question (and I think it's an open one) is how long can we see this rate of development/production before we stop blaming individual players and start looking at ways to improve the system. Something went wrong after our run in the early 1990's and K made some significant changes after 1995 that paid off in a big way.

At this point, my main concern goes beyond individual players or questions of PT, recruiting, etc. I am afraid that our culture of winning and aura of invincibility have taken a serious hit. It was once said that Duke won a lot of games before the ball was thrown up. I don't think teams fear us like they once did. Even more to the point, in the past we've had groups that expected to win every game and played with supreme confidence. We've seen the other side of that with football in recent seasons, where the team is basically expecting to lose and thus finds ways to do so.

I'm beginning to wonder about this group, which has only seen late/postseason flamouts. No one on this team has seen a FF and next season no one may have seen the second weekend. That has to have an effect on the team's psyche. In fact, I think you could argue that we've already seen this team start to expect bad results as soon as things start go go wrong. This team, IMO, is in real danger of having things spiral out of control in a really negative way. We have the master motivator on the bench, so I'm hopeful that he can right the ship. But if K can't get the team's collective head in the right place things could get really nasty.

[dukelifer]

I'm not sure what you mean by "very recent past." Going back to the Selected 6 we've brought in the following PF/C's:

2003-4 No one (Deng was #1 SF)
2004-5: No one (David was the 13th best SF)
2005-6: McRoberts (best PF), Boat (3rd best C) Boykin (20th best PF)
2006-7: Z (7th best C), Lance (4th best PF)
2007-8: No one (Kyle was #1 SF)
2008-09: Plumlee (14th best PF)

So in that time we've brought in 2 C's: Boat (http://duke.scout.com/a.z?s=167&p=8&c=1&nid=816839)and Z (http://duke.scout.com/a.z?s=167&p=8&c=1&nid=1013061). Both were 4 star players that I wouldn't describe as "athletic".

We've brought in 4 PF's. McBob (http://duke.scout.com/a.z?s=167&p=8&c=1&nid=450066)clearly underachieved. Five star Lance Thomas (http://duke.scout.com/a.z?s=167&p=8&c=1&nid=1113084) is especially surprising since his strengths are listed as "rebounding" and "gets to the free throw line." That's 6 post players in 6 seasons. Two of them could reasonably have been expected to make an impact. Both massively underachieved but even if either had lived up to the hype they could have been expected to have jumped to the NBA much sooner.

I'm not sure how we measure "our share." Against past results? Against other top teams (UConn, UNC, etc.)? Against players who went elsewhere (often without even giving us a visit)? Sugarcoating the problem doesn't make it go away. It just leads to lots of unrealistic expectations that become confusion and anger (often directed at the players). If your 10 year old son is playing against 15 year old HS students you don't pretend he's just as good and then berate him for failing to keep up with/beat them. You temper your expectations and cheer for him to have a good time and do the best he can.

Well we actually recruited and "landed" Humphries in Deng's year but could not hold him at the last moment. We also expect a few of those guys to last a bit longer than they did. We also had Shav and Shel and Michael Thompson in the class before Deng (2002). That group could have stayed until 2005-2006. Then McBob and Boateng came in and could have been here this year. If they had all stayed and lived up to expectations- there is no conversation about lack of big guys. Guys left- some did not pan out- but it was not for lack of recruiting. Sure we did not land everyone- but it is not like Duke has been ducking recruiting top big guys.

[ncexnyc]

Coach K is supposed to be the master motivator, knowing which buttons to push and when to get the most out of his team.

I'm just curious if maybe, just maybe he misread Greg's ability to take a back seat to Nolan at the start of the season. Yes, I realize Greg was hurt, but I'm still not convinced he completely bought into what he was being asked to do. Now with the switch what are you telling Nolan and what does that do for his confidence?

I'm also wondering if Brian's confidence has been destroyed by the lack of playing time he is getting. I truly understand that against mobile big men who have some range on their shot, he is a major liablity, but our defense around the hole seems a great deal better with him in the game. Why hasn't Coach K made it a point of emphasis for this team to run plays through Brian? Yes I know I'm sounding like greybeard by saying that, but the kid is a very good passer and he's what we've got now and next year so you'd better develop him now.

[bjornolf]

I wonder which programs people consider to be elite right now. Given their recent NCAA success, UCLA has to be there.

I think there are still elite programs out there. I think Duke is one. I think UNC is one. I think Kansas, UCLA and UConn belong in that group. Kentucky has been down for a few years, but I don't think they've lost their elite status.

As for elite TEAMS, I don't think there are any this year, or for the past couple years. There are several very good teams, and bunches of good teams, but I don't see any great or elite teams. I think too much of the talent goes to the league too early for there to be any right now.

[dukelifer]

I think there are still elite programs out there. I think Duke is one. I think UNC is one. I think Kansas, UCLA and UConn belong in that group. Kentucky has been down for a few years, but I don't think they've lost their elite status.

As for elite TEAMS, I don't think there are any this year, or for the past couple years. There are several very good teams, and bunches of good teams, but I don't see any great or elite teams. I think too much of the talent goes to the league too early for there to be any right now.

The group you mention sound about right- but look at UConn's recent NCAA performances since 2004, 2nd round loss in 2005, elite eight, not in at all, first round loss. A bit comparable to Duke. Duke has had sweet 16, sweet 16, first round loss, second round loss. Kansas in that period, 1st round, 1st round, elite eight and Champions. UNC has gotten better every year since winning in 2005 with a second round, elite 8 and final four. Duke is not the only elite program that has struggled in the NCAA tourney recently.

[gotham devil]

Good points on recruiting, but I think this goes beyond the bigs. If we look at today's juniors and seniors in rivals.com, Duke had outstanding recruiting classes that unfortunately have not quite worked out as expected. I have no doubt that the coaches have developed them as much as possible, so I don't know if it's bad luck or what.

We can look at the expectations vs. the results:

Seniors:

Paulus, #1 rated PG, has only started a few games this year.
Pocius #12 SG, no playing time.
Boykin #24 SF, long gone.
Boateng #19 PF, long gone.
McRoberts #1 PF, long gone (that was expected, the results were not).
McClure #21 SF from 2004 who has more than met expectations.

Juniors:

Henderson #2 PG and living up to his billing, especially this year.
Scheyer #15 SG who has more than lived up to expectations, but is going through a slump.
Thomas #13 SF, 5.5 PPG, 3.2 rebounds.
Zoubek #3 C, 5.6 PPG, 4.4 rebounds.

With perhaps one exception, all appear to be good kids, but I would say that only three of ten have worked out as well as expected. I don't think that any other coaches would have gotten more out of them, and clearly Duke was not the only school who thought highly of them so that's not the problem either.

I don't know the answer, but we certainly seem to be in a difficult cycle that I hope we'll get out of. This is a long way from the 2001 championship team, which had 5 future NBA starters (even if Jason only started 54 games during his too-short career). Back then a disappointment like Burgess was more the exception than the rule.
I agree with the inherent message of both of you.
There is no need to sugarcoat it.
The 2005 class was a failure. If you are going to play man defensively (which, God willing, the program will as long as Coach K is the head coach), recruiting Pocious, Paulus, Boykin, and Boateng in a single class would be the equivalent of throwing gas on a fire, when competing against elite level competition/speed. McRoberts left prematurely, but the coaches would've happily signed for 2 years upon receiving his LOI.

Whether one wants to lay it all at the players' laps or, if Coach Wojciechowski bears any responsibility, Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek have made minimal improvements over the past three seasons. Unfairly or fairly, one would have to be very naive to think that competing programs don't try to point out their lack of development to our potential post recruits.
Fortunately, three very good offensive post prospects will be entering over the next two years.

FWIW, all four 2006 prospects were well ahead of Hasheem Thabeet and Jarvis Varnado, but also ahead of reportedly good students like D.J. Augustin and Luke Harangody.
http://home.roadrunner.com/~rsci/RSCI_100_PostSeason_2006.htm


There are seven McDonald's All-Americans on the roster. That ought to heighten expectations of any fan base. Like John Beilein, Al Skinner has always had a reputation as a great bench coach and an eye for underdeveloped talent, but he's never been able to recruit as well as the legendary Coach Krzyzewski or Roy Williams. The BC loss last night should be a disappointing loss for the coaches, players, and fans.

[dukejunkie]

Getting back to Coach K admitting early in the year that the team has broken down the last couple of years. He stated they were deeper and that he would keep players fresher. A lot of long time Duke fans were a little skeptical and it seems rightfully so. The question one pondered was if Duke were better off developing players throughout the year and keeping the stars fresh? This might cost them a game or two but help in the long run. Now, ironically, it seems playing the stars more and losing anyway was an option. But maybe this is not Coach K's fault. He has been using his system successfully for many years. Is it possibly the assistants who should be stepping up their efforts more? They are all from the inside and seem like "yes" men in awe of Coach K (rightfully so). However, it is the assistant's job during a game to get in the coaches face when he's thinking of something else and saying something like, "Coach, I think you should sit Singler for a few minutes here, it is the perfect time".


I know that it is probably sacreligious to suggest criticism of Coach K and his staff and I might even get an infraction for this post, but I will bear it.

For the past few years, the team has seemed to have peaked early and has looked fatigued at the end of the year, is this the result of Coach K not using his bench properly and giving experience to most of his players ? Prior to the season beginning, I remember Coach K saying that this was the deepest team that he has had in a few years...what happened to the depth ?

Since Shelden Williams Duke has not recruited an inside presence that has been very effective. I know that Patterson and Monroe were recruited heavily but were there any real back up plans if they decided to to matriculate elsewhere?

It does not seem to me that Brian Zoubek has become the inside force that could be expected of someone his size....is that the fault of coaching ? I remember that there were thoughts of him becoming similar to the center who became a force at Pittsburgh, ( I forgot his name ).

I know that recruiting is nowhere near an exact science and it is easy to spread rumors, but if my recollection is correct, both Monroe and Kenny Boynton were Duke fans growing up and Duke was always listed as the team to beat in recruiting them, yet for some reason Coach K could not close the deal with either of them...I remembered a silly rumor about Coach K pulling up to Boynton's house in a limo which turned off the Boynton family, but I gave no credence to that nonsense.

Did the coaching staff overvalue Nolan Smith, Elliot Williams as to their ability to make immediate contributions., neither of them seem to have much of an offensive game. In the case of Smith, he seems to be more tentative than he was earlier in the season.Is he hurt ? With Paulus graduating, Nolan Smith has to be the PG next year...is he up to the task, this has be in the hands of the coaches because if for some reason he is not, than Coach K has no back up plan. What if Smith is injured then what...once again no back up plan ?

I am a big fan of Greg Paulus...I just like the guy...but he does have defensive liabilities and the coaching staff doesn't seem to make adjustments for him when he plays.

Basketball has changed over the years and for whatever the reason, maybe it is the academic requirements of Duke, but Coach K doesn't recruit the athletic big men that you see in other ACC teams, like Wake has done, Clemson, Florida State , Va Tech. or BC has done. Yes, I understand that there is no comparison academically with Clemson , Va Tech or Fla State, but there have to be some similar athletic big men who would meet the academic requirements at Duke. I am not naive to think that there is the same academic requirements for a basketball player as there is for a regular student applying to Duke who is not an athlete.

Does the coaching staff have to take responsibility for the team just not showing up for the Clemson game ? The other loses to UNC, Wake, BC and Michigan, the team played hard and could have won.

Yes we have been spoiled by the success of the Duke basketball program which was the pre-eminent one in all of college basketball. It is no longer the one.

Next year might be a little better or it might not be..could be the same as this year...unless Henderson and Singler leave, then who knows what?

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

Well we actually recruited and "landed" Humphries in Deng's year but could not hold him at the last moment.

By that logic we "landed" Livingstone and Kobe too. Heck, let's throw in Ousmane Cisse and DeSagana Diop while we're at it. If they never put on a Duke uniform I have trouble considering them a Duke player. John Brockman would have gone to Duke, but he didn't. Brandan Wright was considered a lock for us but we couldn't hold him at the last moment.



We also expect a few of those guys to last a bit longer than they did. We also had Shav and Shel and Michael Thompson in the class before Deng (2002). That group could have stayed until 2005-2006.

If we were expecting Hump or Shav to live up to the hype AND stay for four seasons we were really deluded. Hump was always one and done and Shav would have been if injury hadn't killed his career. Shel gave us a gift by staying all four seasons, but that was not an outcome we should have been relying on.


Then McBob and Boateng came in and could have been here this year. If they had all stayed and lived up to expectations- there is no conversation about lack of big guys. Guys left- some did not pan out- but it was not for lack of recruiting. Sure we did not land everyone- but it is not like Duke has been ducking recruiting top big guys.

Given his family and financial situation McBob was even less likely to stick around for 3-4 years. Boat is averaging 2 points and 2 boards and was always considered a huge project. That's why he was not 5 stars in one of the weakest classes in memory.

If a big guy is elite he's not likely to stay around for very long. That's why you need to have at least 1 major stud every 1-2 years with another 1-2 solid role-players behind them that will be ready to contribute as upperclassmen. (see e.g. UNC with Hans, Thompson, Davis and Zeller and Henson/Wear twins coming in next season). This is what the landscape has been like for at least a decade.

I see that we aren't ducking major post recruits. We're just missing on the studs and failing to develop the role-players. In the last 4-6 seasons it's simply not accurate to say that we have landed our share of elite post players.

[bjornolf]

The group you mention sound about right- but look at UConn's recent NCAA performances since 2004, 2nd round loss in 2005, elite eight, not in at all, first round loss. A bit comparable to Duke. Duke has had sweet 16, sweet 16, first round loss, second round loss. Kansas in that period, 1st round, 1st round, elite eight and Champions. UNC has gotten better every year since winning in 2005 with a second round, elite 8 and final four. Duke is not the only elite program that has struggled in the NCAA tourney recently.

Whoa, you're going to compare two 1st rounds, an elite eight and a national championship and a championship, 2nd, elite 8, and final four to two sweet 16s, a 1st, and a 2nd? UConn and Duke are the only two that have trended DOWN over that period, and UConn looks like it's righted its ship and is on the way back up. We're the only team that has trended DOWN over that period and seems to be floundering again this season. In my book, a championship buys you a few years of rebuilding as a lot of players and coaches tend to leave after one. Both teams with championships are going UP, not down. UConn's the only one I think is even comparable to Duke the last few years, and they're looking better for this year barring an upset. I hope we get it back together, but UConn's looking better for the moment. I don't think you can favorably compare Duke's tournament results over the last four seasons to anyone with a championship, even if they went out first round every other year. JMHO.

[miramar]

Maybe the problem is Henderson then. Don't get me wrong, he's a great player and we'd be in REAL trouble w/o him, but if he was the #2 PG in his class and we expected him to be a PG, then that's kind of a problem.

That should have been SG not PG, my bad.

[shotrocksplitter]

Getting back to Coach K admitting early in the year that the team has broken down the last couple of years. He stated they were deeper and that he would keep players fresher. A lot of long time Duke fans were a little skeptical and it seems rightfully so. The question one pondered was if Duke were better off developing players throughout the year and keeping the stars fresh? This might cost them a game or two but help in the long run. Now, ironically, it seems playing the stars more and losing anyway was an option. But maybe this is not Coach K's fault. He has been using his system successfully for many years. Is it possibly the assistants who should be stepping up their efforts more? They are all from the inside and seem like "yes" men in awe of Coach K (rightfully so). However, it is the assistant's job during a game to get in the coaches face when he's thinking of something else and saying something like, "Coach, I think you should sit Singler for a few minutes here, it is the perfect time".

This is the point that worries me most. We could easily play 9 deep, but significant minutes are played by a much smaller group. Not only does that exhaust and beat up the stars, it leaves the others underdeveloped. K has more control over the rotation than anything else. I really would love to see players like Miles and Elliott play 15 minutes against St. John's.

[Billy Dat]

-The coaches are part of the team so they should share all praise and blame

-I agree with the post(s) indicating that this group seems to carry the weight of the world on their shoulders. In their mind, and in the mind of many fans, they haven't lived up to the Duke standard. I think that pressure is crushing their spirit. A reporter, pre-UNC game, wrote that the team needs to loosen up. It was a glib piece, but I thought the guy had a point. K has tried to address this issue head on, but only Feb/March success will make the team believe.

-As for recruiting, we simply haven't scored as in the past. "Player development" looks a lot better when the kid is hugely talented. If you truly believe that Zoubek, for example, would have turned into Bill Walton if he was being coached by Jim Calhoun, than you are less likely to buy into the "hits and misses" of recruiting. But, as others have said, recruiting is a crap shoot and we haven't landed any NBA starters in a while. We're also dealing with a generation of kids growing up in an era where Duke is not cool. In fact, it's cool to hate Duke.....

-....which means that maybe we're due for another cycle to kick in soon. As K is closer to the end of his career than the beginning, I sense a final golden age looming - in recruits and hardware. He's too good, too smart, and too energized and too competitive to go gently into that good Knight.

[buddy]

Jim Calhoun had the self-assurance to hire George Blaney, an older and experienced coach, as an assistant. I'm sure Blaney has no trouble telling Calhoun that he needs to change something. Blaney doesn't need the job or the reference. Coach K hires his former players and son-in-law. Who among them can tell him he's on the wrong path? I think it is a shame that K is not confident enough to hire an outsider. He did real well when Colonel Tom, Pete Gaudet, and Mike Brey were on the sidelines. Now he seems to have surrounded himself with a closed group. It would be highly unlikely that a group for whom he has always been "coach" can consider themselves as peers. As a student of management I would think K would understand this. But maybe he is one of many managers who practice "do what I say, not what I do"

[dukelifer]

By that logic we "landed" Livingstone and Kobe too. Heck, let's throw in Ousmane Cisse and DeSagana Diop while we're at it. If they never put on a Duke uniform I have trouble considering them a Duke player. John Brockman would have gone to Duke, but he didn't. Brandan Wright was considered a lock for us but we couldn't hold him at the last moment.




If we were expecting Hump or Shav to live up to the hype AND stay for four seasons we were really deluded. Hump was always one and done and Shav would have been if injury hadn't killed his career. Shel gave us a gift by staying all four seasons, but that was not an outcome we should have been relying on.



Given his family and financial situation McBob was even less likely to stick around for 3-4 years. Boat is averaging 2 points and 2 boards and was always considered a huge project. That's why he was not 5 stars in one of the weakest classes in memory.

If a big guy is elite he's not likely to stay around for very long. That's why you need to have at least 1 major stud every 1-2 years with another 1-2 solid role-players behind them that will be ready to contribute as upperclassmen. (see e.g. UNC with Hans, Thompson, Davis and Zeller and Henson/Wear twins coming in next season). This is what the landscape has been like for at least a decade.

I see that we aren't ducking major post recruits. We're just missing on the studs and failing to develop the role-players. In the last 4-6 seasons it's simply not accurate to say that we have landed our share of elite post players.

Well the Humphries case was nothing like the others cases you noted. Duke had to grant him a release thus the "landed".

So other than UNC- who is landing all these major studs every 1-2 years which apparently is now the recruiting landscape for the past decade.

[allenmurray]

Jim Calhoun had the self-assurance to hire George Blaney, an older and experienced coach, as an assistant. I'm sure Blaney has no trouble telling Calhoun that he needs to change something. Blaney doesn't need the job or the reference. Coach K hires his former players and son-in-law. Who among them can tell him he's on the wrong path? I think it is a shame that K is not confident enough to hire an outsider. He did real well when Colonel Tom, Pete Gaudet, and Mike Brey were on the sidelines. Now he seems to have surrounded himself with a closed group. It would be highly unlikely that a group for whom he has always been "coach" can consider themselves as peers. As a student of management I would think K would understand this. But maybe he is one of many managers who practice "do what I say, not what I do"

Wow - a few losses and you guys just come crawling out of the woodwork, don't you?

K lacks self-confidence?

He did real well (did you use the past tense?)?

At the time of Duke's last national championship both Collins and Wojo were on his staff as assistant coaches. When he won the championships in 1991 and 1992 his assistant coaches were Tommy Amaker and Jay Bilas (two more former players). If you are going to be so critical you should at least do a little homework so you con't look like a complete fool. A lot of "students of management" have lerned the skill of looking things up.

[SoCalDukeFan]

We have been extremely fortunate to have K as head coach. We are all probably spoiled. However I think K's involvement with the Olympics, recent recruiting, and choice of assistants are worthy of discussion.


Do you think that Coach K's involvement in the Olympics helped or hurt Duke basketball?
I have read how it re-energized Coach K. Great. But how much time did it take away from Duke for K and his staff. My guess is that Roy and his assistants and Calhoun and his staff were either recruiting, reviewing film, conducting clinics with top high school players, or other activities directly involving their team and we were not.

I hope they pick Roy Williams for the 2012 job.

BTW, I am sure it was a great experience for K. And he certainly earned it. I just think it did more for him than for Duke. He also had some assistants who may have challenged him a few times which is a good thing.

Recruiting.
Lets face it recruiting is tough. And with the NBA very tough. Do you want Kevin Love - 1 year and a FF - or Kyle Singlar - 2 for sure, hopefully 4 years of excellent basketball? Some develop, some do not. You can also invest mucho man hours on a player and come in second, time better spent on other players but who knew?
My problem with our recent recruiting is that I saw two recruits play in high school and was skeptical about both. I thought that Jamal Boykin was certainly not the best player on the floor. I loved his hustle and thought he was a leader. It appeared to me that he could contribute but not star.
Taylor King was a shooter who would shoot from anywhere. He also hustled hard for every rebound. However his team played a zone and I thought was hiding him on defense. While he had much to admire there were some real question marks.
Both players are gone. Not sure how much time they would be getting if they stayed. Boykin I think left for personal reasons. In any case, if I was skeptical with my untrained eye, what did the staff see?
I also think that fans (and maybe coaches) get too caught up in McD's AA etc. We don't want great high school players - Chris Burgess - we want players who will develop into great college players -Christian Laettner.

Overall I guess I have confidence that K tries to recruit the talent that he thinks will do the most for Duke and that he can persuade to come to Duke. His track record is way better than most.

Lastly, assistants. I too have thought K should get an assistant from a different background who would challenge him. One virtue of the Olympic experience is that he may have gotten it there.

With the current set up he does not have to spend time teaching assistants what he wants or how his program works, which is a good thing. So I guess you need to balance the maintenance of the program with the challenge. Not sure which way the scale tips.

SoCal

[allenmurray]

I too have thought K should get an assistant from a different background who would challenge him.

SoCal

There may be some value in that.

On the other hand the following folks have been assistant coaches for K during his three championships - Dawkins, Wojo, Collins, Bilas, Amaker, Brey. Five of them were former players. The only exception was Mike Brey, who had NO college coaching experience before Coach K hired him. While he had had some good experience (four years as an assistant to Morgan Wooten at DeMathat High School) he had no college experience. The idea that Coach K needs a different kind of assistant coach because the ones he has don't adequately "challenge" him is simply not borne out. Hewon three national championships with former players as assistants and an assistatn with no prior college level experience.

[RelativeWays]

-The coaches are part of the team so they should share all praise and blame

-I agree with the post(s) indicating that this group seems to carry the weight of the world on their shoulders. In their mind, and in the mind of many fans, they haven't lived up to the Duke standard. I think that pressure is crushing their spirit. A reporter, pre-UNC game, wrote that the team needs to loosen up. It was a glib piece, but I thought the guy had a point. K has tried to address this issue head on, but only Feb/March success will make the team believe.

Man, I really wish they would lighten up. The only thing that is the end of the world is the end of the world. I really think some of our problems would lessen if our guys didn't play like they had the weight of the world on their shoulders, I think the offense would run smoother if they didn't feel the pressure to jack up a 3 to tie the score or take the lead. The teams that tend to beat us seem to flow almost effortly on offense, they aren't intimidated or worried about playing Duke in the slightest. Our guys seem to tense up and rush things or make things happen when they feel they being pressured to answer. At this point, I wish they wouldn't care quite so much, not when it becomes a detriment. We're 20-5, we're not favorites to win anything or go far at all, the weights been lifted. If our guys want to loosen up and have fun, nows the time, let us become the free spirits, the hunters. I've felt that this time in the year, the Duke jersey and the accompanying expectations have become an albatross, not a motivation. Its time to cut that off and move on.

[Indoor66]

Man, I really wish they would lighten up. The only thing that is the end of the world is the end of the world. I really think some of our problems would lessen if our guys didn't play like they had the weight of the world on their shoulders, I think the offense would run smoother if they didn't feel the pressure to jack up a 3 to tie the score or take the lead. The teams that tend to beat us seem to flow almost effortly on offense, they aren't intimidated or worried about playing Duke in the slightest. Our guys seem to tense up and rush things or make things happen when they feel they being pressured to answer. At this point, I wish they wouldn't care quite so much, not when it becomes a detriment. We're 20-5, we're not favorites to win anything or go far at all, the weights been lifted. If our guys want to loosen up and have fun, nows the time, let us become the free spirits, the hunters. I've felt that this time in the year, the Duke jersey and the accompanying expectations have become an albatross, not a motivation. Its time to cut that off and move on.

I agree with your sentiments and would further say that some of the criticism on this board only adds to the pressure and intimidating expectations burdening the kids. Sometimes I think we forget that these are 18-22 year old young, young men who are growing, both physically and mentally, before our eyes. We all need to cut these kids some slack.

[The Gordog]

I think the assistants question and the recruiting question are related. I think Quin was the best recruiter we ever had. He brought in the Brand/Battier/Avery class and the Jason Williams/Boozer/Dunleavy class 2 years apart.

Call me Chip !!!

[dukie8]

-As for recruiting, we simply haven't scored as in the past. "Player development" looks a lot better when the kid is hugely talented. If you truly believe that Zoubek, for example, would have turned into Bill Walton if he was being coached by Jim Calhoun, than you are less likely to buy into the "hits and misses" of recruiting. But, as others have said, recruiting is a crap shoot and we haven't landed any NBA starters in a while. We're also dealing with a generation of kids growing up in an era where Duke is not cool.

calhoun did a pretty good job developing thabeet. look at his numbers:

2007: 24.6 min; 6.4 reb and 6.2 pts
2008: 31.0 min; 7.9 reb and 10.5 pts
2009: 31.4 min; 10.8 reb and 13.5 pts

don't forget that the '07 team was atrocious and didn't make the ncaat so it wasn't like he was buried behind a bunch of future nba stars and got little burn. when was the last time k recruited someone with raw talent and developed him even remotely like this?

even okafor, who was an academic star in high school and should have been high on k's radar just for that, but wasn't highly rated had solid improvement:

2002: 30.0 min; 9.0 reb and 7.9 pts
2003: 32.9 min; 11.2 reb and 15.9 pts
2004: 32.4 min; 11.5 reb and 17.6 pts

it's purely speculative, but i'd venture to guess that had calhoun recruited zoubek over thabeet, he would be a much more integral part of unconn's team today and not someone who rides pine in the 2nd of what seems like every big game.

[dukie8]

There may be some value in that.

On the other hand the following folks have been assistant coaches for K during his three championships - Dawkins, Wojo, Collins, Bilas, Amaker, Brey. Five of them were former players. The only exception was Mike Brey, who had NO college coaching experience before Coach K hired him. While he had had some good experience (four years as an assistant to Morgan Wooten at DeMathat High School) he had no college experience. The idea that Coach K needs a different kind of assistant coach because the ones he has don't adequately "challenge" him is simply not borne out. Hewon three national championships with former players as assistants and an assistatn with no prior college level experience.

2 of the 3 ncs had the head assistant coach, brey, with no prior duke connection. that is significant. nobody thinks that you need 3 assistants playing devil's advocate on everything but having someone with a little more gravitas and presence than a 20-something former player couldn't hurt. do you really believe that wojo, collins and nate james challenge k? i don't know about you, but i would have a very hard time challenging my former college coach, who is a living legend and twice my age -- particularly if it were my first job and i didn't exactly have a long resume to fall back on should my boss decide to part ways.

[allenmurray]

2 of the 3 ncs had the head assistant coach, brey, with no prior duke connection. that is significant. nobody thinks that you need 3 assistants playing devil's advocate on everything but having someone with a little more gravitas and presence than a 20-something former player couldn't hurt. do you really believe that wojo, collins and nate james challenge k? i don't know about you, but i would have a very hard time challenging my former college coach, who is a living legend and twice my age -- particularly if it were my first job and i didn't exactly have a long resume to fall back on should my boss decide to part ways.

Brey was great - but Gravitas? Presence? He was hired by K for his first job of any kind other than being a high school assistant coach. Do you really believe that Brey challenged K - especially given that he was only 20 someting and didn't exacrtly have a long resume tro fall back on should his boss decide to part ways?

Folks who think that back when we were winning National championships it was because of our experienced, outside-the-Duke-mold assistant coaches are grasping at straws. It simply ain't true. You can look it up.

[Oriole Way]

I think the assistants question and the recruiting question are related. I think Quin was the best recruiter we ever had. He brought in the Brand/Battier/Avery class and the Jason Williams/Boozer/Dunleavy class 2 years apart.

Call me Chip !!!

I think this is a very important point to consider.

It is my understanding that Wojo and Collins have done much of the heavy lifting when it comes to identifying recruits and subsequently recruiting them. Ever since K's commitment with the Olympics, I believe he has been more involved in the final stages of the process, but not the initial stages.

I'm wondering if Wojo and Collins simply aren't the talent evaluators that Snyder was, or that K was 8 years ago when he was more involved.

[dukie8]

Brey was great - but Gravitas? Presence? He was hired by K for his first job of any kind other than being a high school assistant coach. Do you really believe that Brey challenged K - especially given that he was only 20 someting and didn't exacrtly have a long resume tro fall back on should his boss decide to part ways?

Folks who think that back when we were winning National championships it was because of our experienced, outside-the-Duke-mold assistant coaches are grasping at straws. It simply ain't true. You can look it up.

i don't think anyone thinks that the biggest cause of duke's decline is a lack of "outside-the-Duke-mold" assistants. however, having a big group-think of yes-men cannot be helping. what has duke done differently this year versus last year and 2 years ago and 3 years ago? i thought that LAST year felt like Groundhog Day. this year is like Groundhog Day to the max.

btw, not that it matters, brey was born in 1959 and in his 30s when duke was winning its first 2 NCs.

[devildownunder]

I agree with your sentiments and would further say that some of the criticism on this board only adds to the pressure and intimidating expectations burdening the kids. Sometimes I think we forget that these are 18-22 year old young, young men who are growing, both physically and mentally, before our eyes. We all need to cut these kids some slack.

If the kids at Duke are under too much pressure to perform at their best, somehow I doubt that the situation will be alleviated any by anything that happens on this message board. I'd expect 18 to 22-year-olds to be far more influenced by what the BIG MEDIA say about them then members of their fan base in an online forum.

[dukie8]

I think this is a very important point to consider.

It is my understanding that Wojo and Collins have done much of the heavy lifting when it comes to identifying recruits and subsequently recruiting them. Ever since K's commitment with the Olympics, I believe he has been more involved in the final stages of the process, but not the initial stages.

I'm wondering if Wojo and Collins simply aren't the talent evaluators that Snyder was, or that K was 8 years ago when he was more involved.

people don't want to hear it, but i think that duke's recruiting has gotten extremely lazy. i get the feeling that the coaches dust off the high school sophomore rankings, eliminate everyone not in the top 50, then eliminate a good 15-20 of those 50 due to academics, then eliminate another 15-20 due to being bad "fits" (eg, hang with bad crowds, have bad attitudes, want to be guaranteed x number of shots or minutes, etc), which leaves about 10. they then filter the 10 down to like 5 and go after them. if they miss on those 5 or the ones that come aren't as good as billed, then duke has a problem.

i realize that some of the duke recruiting is a self-fulfilling prophesy (ie, if duke recruits a guy, he will shoot up the rankings) but when was the last time duke really canvassed the country and took some little known guy who then went on to become a star? knowing the dire pg situation, it is beyond perplexing that duke didn't bring a pg in this year and doesn't seem to be bringing one in for next year either. BC's roster is filled with guys duke wouldn't even give a sniff to. rice wasn't even a ranked recruit and look at how good he has become. guys are out there who could help duke at pg and the inside but it appears to me that duke doesn't want to put the time in and find them.

[MarkD83]

There was a quote on the front of DBR from Coach K that stated that Duke fans do not think about the process any more.

As you look at Duke in the past few years I think Coach K is exactly right. We want the team to win every single game during the season and we overanalyze each loss. The players also get wrapped up in this and then toward the end of the season they forget what got them here and start thinking about the wins.

A bit of corporate quality-speak. If you think about doing each process well the end result will be high quality.

So lets take a look at an example....Lance Thomas. He seems to have figured this out. He knows his role is to get rebounds, play tough D and get garbage baskets. He has embraced that role and is playing well. He does not have to be the "back to the basket major option" that Hansbrough is for UNC. That is not Lance's role.

Now for other players perhaps their roles are changing and they can't concentrate on the process right now. I believe that is because Duke has been a victim of their own success. The roles were all well defined until the Clemson game. Everything just fell apart and Coach K is now 3 games into trying to redefine roles. Unfortunatelt, in the three latest games we have run into teams trying to make a statement. UNC is obvious. They want to beat Duke badly even if the game is on a playground in south Durham in the middle of July. Miami still needs a statement win to get into the NCAAs and almost got one against Duke and again they alomost got one against UNC last night. BC also needed a statement game to get into the NCAAs and they got it. In the same time frame Coach K is trying to redifine roles and thus can't concentrate on game planning as much.

Again an example. If Nolan was playing the same role that he had up until the Clemson game (drive to the basket and play lock down D on the other teams point guard) Duke would have been much better off against UNC and BC. Not that he would have totally stopped Lawson and Rice but he would have been able to concentrate on the same process he has concentrated on since the begining of the year. It looks like the Clemson game just sapped the confidence out of him and now instead of thinking about how to improve his role he is trying to figure out what he should be doing. (Nolan, I am not picking on you just hoping you regain your confidence.)

In the "what are your expectations" thread I listed what I wanted to see in the rest of the regular season. I wanted them to be more unpredictable. In the BC game I saw that. There was a 1-3-1 press and I think I saw a zone. I also saw three guards on the floor at one time (Jon, Greg and Nolan) with Greg being the shooting guard. I also believe I saw Zoubek, Lance and Kyle on the floor at the same time and then Zoubek, McClure and Kyle and perhaps Lance, McClure and Kyle. All of these lineups look like attempts by Coach K to redefine roles. If he wanted to just win this game you would not have seen three guards at the same time or three bigs at the same time. In fact you would have seen G and Kyle on the floor for 40 minutes because they were the hot offensive players.

These various lineups also give Coach K a chance to look at groups of players he can use against a first or second round NCAA team that has never seen Duke.

If there is a fault with the Duke team right now its that they did not have that defining loss that forced them to reevaluate themselves until Clemson. (By the way if you want to compare Duke to UNC. UNC had that defining loss against BC.)

Finally, if there is a trend (again borrowing from my corporate experience as a pseudo statistician), you have to look longer term. In the late 1980s through the 1990s when Duke went to all of those final fours, Duke won very few ACC regular seasons or tournaments. After 2001 we won a ton of ACC regular seasons and tournaments, but went to 1 final four. So you can concentrate on doing one but not both of these well. There is the rare season where it all comes together but in the ACC that is tougher and tougher to do.

So, I believe that in the past few years the team has been trying to win games in the regular season to prove that "We are Duke" which has meant lack of focus on the process of improving which is what you need in the NCAAs. I believe that Coach K is also trying to figure out what he wants to do in the next 10 years. Yes he wants to win eveything every year. However, in this day and age I believe he is coming to grips with the idea that if he wants to concentrate on NCAA tournament success then he will have to over recruit and take players that will flirt with going pro each year.

You can still develop a good relationship with someone if they are only around for a year or two.

[buddy]

My point about the assistants is simply that too much "group think" is bad for any organization. It's not that we did not have former players as assistants in those early national championship runs, it is that we had at least one coach who had not played for K (Rogers, Gaudet, Brey). Given the fact that we seem to be experiencing Ground Hog Day, maybe a different perspective would help. Wouldn't seem like it could hurt.

[Regenman]

I think we should give Calhoun some credit. Okafor was not even in the top 100 and was pursued very late. He also put Jake Voskuhl in the pros. Who would have thought that? Voskuhl was (if I remember correctly) a borderline top 100 recruit.

I can't even remember the last non top 50 recruit that Coach K was able to put in the pros....

As for the litany of top big men that didn't quite turn out: Greg Newton, Taymon Domzalski, Joey Beard. Maybe this cycle of big men is similar to the one we had in the mid 90s??

[dukie8]

How is the elite program Florida doing right now? Has Billy lost his ability to coach or recruit? Florida should be getting to the final four every year- with that location - that ability to attract players. There are no logical reasons for their failing to make the tourney last year. Come on, this is Florida basketball we are talking about.

i can't tell if this is tongue-in-cheek or not but you are aware that florida lost its ENTIRE starting 5 to the nba after 2007? it therefore shouldn't have been too surprising that 2008 was a down year. florida still went 24-12 and made the NIT. you also are very mistaken if you think donovan has lost his recruiting touch. he filled the void of his starting 5 in 2007 with the #2 class last year (which included calathes who was the top pg in the class not named rose) and followed it up with the #4 class this year (which includes mr boynton). florida is going to make the ncaat this year and then only will be better next year with the stockpile of recruits donovan has brought in.

[dukelifer]

i can't tell if this is tongue-in-cheek or not but you are aware that florida lost its ENTIRE starting 5 to the nba after 2007? it therefore shouldn't have been too surprising that 2008 was a down year. florida still went 24-12 and made the NIT. you also are very mistaken if you think donovan has lost his recruiting touch. he filled the void of his starting 5 in 2007 with the #2 class last year (which included calathes who was the top pg in the class not named rose) and followed it up with the #4 class this year (which includes mr boynton). florida is going to make the ncaat this year and then only will be better next year with the stockpile of recruits donovan has brought in.
My point is that if you are going to be critical of Duke - then be critical of all the elite programs. Here, i will give it a try. So Billy lost his starting 5- Duke lost a big chunk of its in 1999 (4 first rounders) and then won it all in 2001. Billy should be right there now- shouldn't he? He has had two years to regroup. The best point guard not named Rose, Calathes is now in his second season and should be leading his team 2nd ranked buddies to the championship- I mean come on didn't Jason Williams do the same as a sophomore. Florida is now an elite program. Billy needs to step it up-his team is not even ranked- Roy and others are stealing his limelight. And if he doesn't win it all next year with that talent- then something must be really wrong with that program- maybe the guy still has one eye on the NBA. See how easy it is?

[dukie8]

My point is that if you are going to be critical of Duke - then be critical of all the elite programs. Here, i will give it a try. So Billy lost his starting 5- Duke lost a big chunk of its in 1999 (4 first rounders) and then won it all in 2001. Billy should be right there now- shouldn't he? He has had two years to regroup. The best point guard not named Rose, Calathes is now in his second season and should be leading his team 2nd ranked buddies to the championship- I mean come on didn't Jason Williams do the same as a sophomore. Florida is now an elite program. Billy needs to step it up-his team is not even ranked- Roy and others are stealing his limelight. And if he doesn't win it all next year with that talent- then something must be really wrong with that program- maybe the guy still has one eye on the NBA. See how easy it is?

i think you forgot a little wheel in the cog of the '99 and '01 teams. there's a little article in the nyt on him right now. duke certainly lost a lot in '99 and '00 was a very pleasant surprise but you cannot be serious if you want to compare losing ALL 5 starters to the nba and bringing back battier and carrawell. i'm not sure why that even matters to the decline duke has suffered. when calathes graduates with zero wins in the sweet 16 and beyond, you will be onto something.

if you want to look at other elite programs, look at what uconn has done. it stunk in 2007, reloaded with good recruits and has dramatically improved each of the past 2 years to the point that it now is the #1 team in the country (well, not next week). it remains to be seen what they do in the ncaat but if i were a uconn fan, i would feel pretty good about the direction the program is going in right now. nobody expects duke to be the best team every year or even FF material every year like it was in the late 80s and early 90s (i hope so at least) but don't you expect a little progress year-over-year when coming off the nadir of 2007? it's not like duke lost anyone to the nba either. this is pure stagnation. Groundhog Day on steroids.

[allenmurray]

i don't think anyone thinks that the biggest cause of duke's decline is a lack of "outside-the-Duke-mold" assistants. however, having a big group-think of yes-men cannot be helping. what has duke done differently this year versus last year and 2 years ago and 3 years ago? i thought that LAST year felt like Groundhog Day. this year is like Groundhog Day to the max.

btw, not that it matters, brey was born in 1959 and in his 30s when duke was winning its first 2 NCs.

You are right - he was 31/32. the only college coaching experience he had was under K. So what outside thinking did he bring?

[JDev]

i think you forgot a little wheel in the cog of the '99 and '01 teams. there's a little article in the nyt on him right now. duke certainly lost a lot in '99 and '00 was a very pleasant surprise but you cannot be serious if you want to compare losing ALL 5 starters to the nba and bringing back battier and carrawell. i'm not sure why that even matters to the decline duke has suffered. when calathes graduates with zero wins in the sweet 16 and beyond, you will be onto something.

I know it is not imperative to your agrument, but Florida didn't lose all 5 starters to the NBA. Shooting guard Lee Humphrey never played in the NBA, and now plays overseas.

[dukie8]

You are right - he was 31/32. the only college coaching experience he had was under K. So what outside thinking did he bring?

more than 3 guys who were recruited by K out of high school, played for K and who have never known anything other than K. something tells me that since his high school team was not coached by K, he had the benefit of seeing different ways to do things. how vocal he was about speaking up, i have no idea, but some outside exposure is better than none.

[dukie8]

I know it is not imperative to your agrument, but Florida didn't lose all 5 starters to the NBA. Shooting guard Lee Humphrey never played in the NBA, and now plays overseas.

good point. now that you mention it, they lost richards to the nba as well (their 6th man).

[Kedsy]

I think many of you have very short memories. Most of the "issues" being discussed here (e.g., short bench, not developing younger players, not switching up the man defense to suit personnel, looking tired at the end of the season) have been tossed about for decades. I remember people saying our bench was too short and we wore out at the end of the season in 1986.

Recruiting big men has always been difficult here. IIRC, when Elton Brand came here, he was the first top-tier back-to-the-basket talent to commit to Duke in the K era (unless you count Danny Ferry, who wasn't really a back-to-the-basket player). Christian Laettner was considered a good get but was not a top-tier recruit. Yet K went to seven Final Fours before Brand came to town.

I haven't done the analysis, but I bet if you base recruiting success on high school ratings Duke has done a lot better in recruiting recently than we did in the 80s and early 90s. And the recruiting for the next couple years looks pretty good, so I don't think there's a downward trend. For those of you complaining that K hasn't developed any lower tier recruits into NBA stars, isn't the answer obvious? At this point Duke has no room for lower tier recruits because we get so many top and middle tier recruits.

As far as NCAAT success, it can't be argued that we've done especially well in the past few years, but I think the answer there is we were luckier than we deserved to be in the 1986 to 1994 years and less lucky than we could have been in the more recent past. Things usually tend to balance out. Hopefully in that regard we'll go on the upswing soon.

Whoever said the team has to lighten up is right. So do the fans.

[NYC Duke Fan]

Is it possible that Coach K and his staff have over valued recruits such as Paulus, Smith, Williams and Zoubek ?

Paulus is one of my favorite Duke players of recent vintage right after Grant Hill, and JJ. I just like his demeanor and attitude. That said, he was the top PG coming out of his class and in my opinion the top point guard should be leading his team to better heights in the NCAA tournament than has happened in recent. I am not singling out Greg for Duke's failure in the recent tournament, but maybe Coach K over valued him.

I thought that Williams , from what I read as I never saw him play, was going to be an immediate contributor this year giving Duke the depth that was lacking in recent years. For whatever reason that has never happened. Was he over valued by Coach K?

In the beginning of the year, I thought that Smith was going gto be a vital part of the team, a penetrating PG, fast and would play great defense . For whatever reason there has not been that consistancy at all ...maybe he is hurt, I do not know. Was he over valued by Coach K, because if he is to be our PG next season, with no back up plan I may add, and if he cannot perform up to the level that we all envision , then Duke is in serious trouble.

I know that Coach K put all his eggs in the Kenny Boynton basket and he should take criticism for no back up plan when Boyton decided not to come.

Lastly as to Zoubek, I know that it takes longer for a big man to develop and that Zoubek had injury problems in the past, ( his high school compettition was not top notch either ) , but there have only been glimpses of what we thought would happen with him. Was he over valued by Coach K ?

It is just my opinion but I do not think that Duke recruiting has been up to snuff in recent years. Is it Coach K's fault...probably, because when he recruited well he got the accolades so when he doesn't he has to take the hit.

[dukelifer]

i think you forgot a little wheel in the cog of the '99 and '01 teams. there's a little article in the nyt on him right now. duke certainly lost a lot in '99 and '00 was a very pleasant surprise but you cannot be serious if you want to compare losing ALL 5 starters to the nba and bringing back battier and carrawell. i'm not sure why that even matters to the decline duke has suffered. when calathes graduates with zero wins in the sweet 16 and beyond, you will be onto something.

if you want to look at other elite programs, look at what uconn has done. it stunk in 2007, reloaded with good recruits and has dramatically improved each of the past 2 years to the point that it now is the #1 team in the country (well, not next week). it remains to be seen what they do in the ncaat but if i were a uconn fan, i would feel pretty good about the direction the program is going in right now. nobody expects duke to be the best team every year or even FF material every year like it was in the late 80s and early 90s (i hope so at least) but don't you expect a little progress year-over-year when coming off the nadir of 2007? it's not like duke lost anyone to the nba either. this is pure stagnation. Groundhog Day on steroids.

Well yes I want to compare losing Langdon, Brand, Burgess (transfer), Avery, Domzalski and Maggette to what Florida lost. That was Duke's top 4 scorers and their only other two big men. Billy should have been prepared for what he lost. But even so, he now has the talent. The number #2 class is reloading in a big way.

As for what UConn has done - remind me why their fans should feel good about the program? They had a first round exit in the NCAA last year and all they have done this year is get a number 1 ranking. If UConn flames out again (and losing at home yesterday is not a good sign), I am not sure there will be anything to be excited about regarding their program- considering they are bound to lose their big man this year.

[Kedsy]

Paulus is one of my favorite Duke players of recent vintage right after Grant Hill, and JJ. I just like his demeanor and attitude. That said, he was the top PG coming out of his class and in my opinion the top point guard should be leading his team to better heights in the NCAA tournament than has happened in recent. I am not singling out Greg for Duke's failure in the recent tournament, but maybe Coach K over valued him.

This makes no sense. If, as you say, he was the top PG coming out of his class, and he hasn't lived up to the hype, then everyone overvalued him. Are you suggesting K should have seen through the hype when nobody else did?

Also, Zoubek was considered a decent get, but IIRC he was always considered a bit of a project, so I don't know why you would consider him "over valued."

And since it's only midway through his sophomore year, IMO you're selling Nolan Smith's overall career arc a little (or a lot) short.

After the first handful of kids each year, recruiting is a crapshoot. If you look at the overall percentage of high-level recruits that have worked out vs. those who haven't, I would guess (a) Duke's percentage now is not so different than it ever was; and (b) Duke's success rate is pretty similar to most everyone else's.

[dukie8]

Well yes I want to compare losing Langdon, Brand, Burgess (transfer), Avery, Domzalski and Maggette to what Florida lost. That was Duke's top 4 scorers and their only other two big men. Billy should have been prepared for what he lost. But even so, he now has the talent. The number #2 class is reloading in a big way.

As for what UConn has done - remind me why their fans should feel good about the program? They had a first round exit in the NCAA last year and all they have done this year is get a number 1 ranking. If UConn flames out again (and losing at home yesterday is not a good sign), I am not sure there will be anything to be excited about regarding their program- considering they are bound to lose their big man this year.

if you don't think uconn fans have anything to be excited about, then you must be on a suicide watch over duke. as i wrote earlier, the program hit rock bottom 2 years ago and then improved last and then again this year. i'm not making excuses for them last year but losing your pg to a torn acl in the middle of a game kind of throws a kink in your game plan. it remains to be seen what they do in the ncaat this year but 24-2 as of mid feb this year, with a slew of top wins (including an actual road win against a top 25 team in december), is a lot better than what duke has done the past 3 years. i have to think that losing dyson is going to hurt them down the line but that remains to be seen.

i'm not sure why you are so insistent on comparing losing your first 6 to losing 4 of your top 6 -- particularly when the 2 that you did not lose were battier and carrawell. i would venture to guess it is just a little bit easier to rebuild around those 2 all americans by sprinkling in a star recruiting class than to start from scratch with a star recruiting class. there is some irony in the fact that duke got upset by florida in the ncaat in 2000. if florida doesn't improve next year with the classes he brought it, i can assure you that people down in gator country will be less than thrilled but winning back-to-back national championships gives on a gigantic cushion to fall back on for many years to come.

[dukie8]

This makes no sense. If, as you say, he was the top PG coming out of his class, and he hasn't lived up to the hype, then everyone overvalued him. Are you suggesting K should have seen through the hype when nobody else did?

Also, Zoubek was considered a decent get, but IIRC he was always considered a bit of a project, so I don't know why you would consider him "over valued."

And since it's only midway through his sophomore year, IMO you're selling Nolan Smith's overall career arc a little (or a lot) short.

After the first handful of kids each year, recruiting is a crapshoot. If you look at the overall percentage of high-level recruits that have worked out vs. those who haven't, I would guess (a) Duke's percentage now is not so different than it ever was; and (b) Duke's success rate is pretty similar to most everyone else's.

this is not true. it means that the rating services overvalued him but it doesn't mean that every coach overvalued him. there had to have been coaches who watched him play and concluded that he wasn't as good as his billing and passed. you also have to take into account that his class had to be the worst class in the past 25 years so being top rated in your position in that class meant a lot less than maybe being ranked 5th or 8th in a much deeper class. getting back to your question, yes, k should have been able to evaluate him better than he did. it's not like he was lightening quick and played great defense in high school and just lost it when he showed up to durham.

zoubek was considered raw but it's not like he was some 4-year project to be. he was ranked as the 4th best center behind oden, hawes and robin lopez (compare the quality of that class to the one before it!) and ahead of thabeet (ouch), stephenson and harangody.

i would like some numbers regarding duke's classes before guessing one way or the other about whether duke's recruiting has tailed off relative to its past and whether it is comparable to other schools.

[Matches]

this is not true. it means that the rating services overvalued him but it doesn't mean that every coach overvalued him. there had to have been coaches who watched him play and concluded that he wasn't as good as his billing and passed. you also have to take into account that his class had to be the worst class in the past 25 years so being top rated in your position in that class meant a lot less than maybe being ranked 5th or 8th in a much deeper class. getting back to your question, yes, k should have been able to evaluate him better than he did. it's not like he was lightening quick and played great defense in high school and just lost it when he showed up to durham.



I don't follow the recruiting rankings all that closely, but it wouldn't surprise me to learn that Greg became the top-rated PG only after it was clear Duke had interest in him. That seems to happen a lot - our recruits become highly-rated simply because we are after them.

Which is why it's a fallacy to count the McDAAs on our roster and conclude there must be a ton of talent there. Paulus' defensive shortcomings would have - or certainly should have - been apparent even when he was in HS.

[JDev]

I don't think things are quite as dire on the recruiting front as some believe. What Duke is seeing now are the effects of things over the last few years not working out like many thought/expected they would. Duke's 2005 class was a big get at the time, particularly with Paulus and McRoberts being tops at their positions by many services. Neither guy worked out quite as well as was hoped (though Paulus has been a quality Duke representative). In Duke's 2006 class, Zoubek and Thomas have not become upper-tier big men. In addition, they have missed on some guys who could help in that regard, namely Patterson and Monroe. Also, Duke got one total year from two huge recruits, Deng and Livingston. This is just several unfortunate things happening at the same time. Duke has still done a good job recruiting, and the future seems to be trending up. The 2009 class looks like it will fit in with the still developing 2010 class quite nicely.
In the meantime, Duke fans have a good team to enjoy right now.

[The1Bluedevil]

I don't follow the recruiting rankings all that closely, but it wouldn't surprise me to learn that Greg became the top-rated PG only after it was clear Duke had interest in him. That seems to happen a lot - our recruits become highly-rated simply because we are after them.

Which is why it's a fallacy to count the McDAAs on our roster and conclude there must be a ton of talent there. Paulus' defensive shortcomings would have - or certainly should have - been apparent even when he was in HS.

I simply can't buy the notion that recruiting services who get paid to judge talent inflate players just because they are being recruited by Duke. Greg Paulus did not climb to the top point guard in 04 because Duke was interested. He earned that spot out of high school. If players rankings are inflated because of the teams that recruit them, then wouldn't that same logic work for North Carolina, Kansas and UCLA just to name a few?

[DU Band Prez 88]

I don't think things are quite as dire on the recruiting front as some believe. What Duke is seeing now are the effects of things over the last few years not working out like many thought/expected they would. Duke's 2005 class was a big get at the time, particularly with Paulus and McRoberts being tops at their positions by many services. Neither guy worked out quite as well as was hoped (though Paulus has been a quality Duke representative). In Duke's 2006 class, Zoubek and Thomas have not become upper-tier big men. In addition, they have missed on some guys who could help in that regard, namely Patterson and Monroe. Also, Duke got one total year from two huge recruits, Deng and Livingston. This is just several unfortunate things happening at the same time. Duke has still done a good job recruiting, and the future seems to be trending up. The 2009 class looks like it will fit in with the still developing 2010 class quite nicely.
In the meantime, Duke fans have a good team to enjoy right now.

Good perspective, agree with everything you say. Duke HAS done a very good job of recruiting, and we as fans do have a very good team to enjoy right now.

This thread started on the topic of coaching and how much responsibility the coaches have for how the team plays, but the thread has digressed into recruiting class rankings, who stayed/who left, etc. Enough of this...let's talk about the current team and the current coach, and how they can improve.

Below is a great quote from one of the articles linked on the home page of this site (Fayetteville Observer), with a perspective from Coach K on the fact that the team is not playing great defense right now and reasons why that might be the case. Seems to make sense to me. This type of quote shows why he's a great coach. It is up to him and his staff to highlight these things with the team - however they address defensive problems in practice -but it's up to the team to play the games. I think that Duke's D will improve in coming games based on what we see in this quote - the problem has been identified, the coaches will address it in practice, and I expect to see Duke start playing significantly better defense both against St. John's on Thursday night and Wake this weekend.

“I think against Carolina (last week) we played so well offensively in the first half, we were almost intoxicated by that,” Krzyzewski said. “We were thinking too much in that way and in the process, we were not thinking enough about defense. And no matter what, we have to win on the defensive end of the court.”

For different reasons, the problems persisted Sunday at BC.

“You just have to get back to the fundamentals,” Krzyzewski said. “It could be something as simple as your stance, how your team is talking to one another — that kind of stuff. But I think what’s missing a little bit for us is a sense of urgency to stop somebody. Sometimes when you’re not shooting well and not hitting, you can take that mind-set to the defensive end.”

[rsvman]

BC's roster is filled with guys duke wouldn't even give a sniff to. rice wasn't even a ranked recruit and look at how good he has become. guys are out there who could help duke at pg and the inside but it appears to me that duke doesn't want to put the time in and find them.

Sorry, but this thought process is bogus. Sure, there are probably guys out there who aren't highly ranked who will become big stars. But for the most part this phenomenon is completely unpredictable. For every Tyrese Rice there are a hundred other guys who looked just like him in high school who now stink. If K actually went after this type of guy, about 99 out of 100 of them would do nothing. You think the fan base is upset about recruiting NOW, imagine how they would feel if he actually went after this type of player (i.e., the unheralded kid who becomes awesome). They'd be after his head. Recruiting in an effort to separate the gold from the fool's gold among the "great unwashed" is no way to sustain a high level of performance in college athletics. It's sort of like buying lottery scratchers and anticipating that they will provide your main source of income.

[Double DD]

this is not true. it means that the rating services overvalued him but it doesn't mean that every coach overvalued him. there had to have been coaches who watched him play and concluded that he wasn't as good as his billing and passed.

Some of the coaches who did and offered him included Roy Williams, Jim Boeheim, Billy Donovan, and John Thompson III. That's probably 5 of the top 10 coaches in the NCAA currently and others might have offered him as well. I think a vast majority of coaches did overvalue him.

[sagegrouse]

I simply can't buy the notion that recruiting services who get paid to judge talent inflate players just because they are being recruited by Duke. Greg Paulus did not climb to the top point guard in 04 because Duke was interested. He earned that spot out of high school. If players rankings are inflated because of the teams that recruit them, then wouldn't that same logic work for North Carolina, Kansas and UCLA just to name a few?

Recruiting services are doing the best they can with limited resources and -- quite frankly -- limited talent. They know that K and his staff, Roy and his staff, Bill Self and his staff are phenomenal evaluators of basketball players. The recruiting services have to respect the views of the top programs.

Moreover, the kinds of indicators that go into an evaluation are rather complex - skills, athleticism, leadership, ceiling, as well as very different attributes like shooting, passing, and rebounding.

The recruiting services, as they should, take into account all the available information. And if Duke, UNC, and Kansas are going after a player then that should infuence their views of the player, either as validation or -- whoa! -- what are we missing?

sagegrouse

[dukie8]

Sorry, but this thought process is bogus. Sure, there are probably guys out there who aren't highly ranked who will become big stars. But for the most part this phenomenon is completely unpredictable. For every Tyrese Rice there are a hundred other guys who looked just like him in high school who now stink. If K actually went after this type of guy, about 99 out of 100 of them would do nothing. You think the fan base is upset about recruiting NOW, imagine how they would feel if he actually went after this type of player (i.e., the unheralded kid who becomes awesome). They'd be after his head. Recruiting in an effort to separate the gold from the fool's gold among the "great unwashed" is no way to sustain a high level of performance in college athletics. It's sort of like buying lottery scratchers and anticipating that they will provide your main source of income.

i'm sorry but this thought process is bogus. buying lottery tickets is betting on 100% chance. doing your homework, pounding the pavement and scouring for guys flying under the radar hardly is relying on chance. it's what recruiting should involve. yes, it's a lot harder to find unranked or under-ranked guys who actually are great players than to just focus on a few guys in the top 50 and hope for the best but coaches like skinner do it over and over again. do you think dudley and smith were ranked? what about sean williams? don't think that skinner just got a lucky roll of the dice with rice.

do you really think people would be after K's head if he brought in some unranked pg this year or next year versus not bringing anyone in? i'm not saying that k should only go after hidden gems -- that would be silly -- but when you have this massive gaping hole and you cannot get any top ranked guys at the position i would think you would want to broaden your net a little bit. this isn't exactly something that just snuck up on the team a couple of weeks ago.

[Oriole Way]

i'm sorry but this thought process is bogus. buying lottery tickets is betting on 100% chance. doing your homework, pounding the pavement and scouring for guys flying under the radar hardly is relying on chance. it's what recruiting should involve. yes, it's a lot harder to find unranked or under-ranked guys who actually are great players than to just focus on a few guys in the top 50 and hope for the best but coaches like skinner do it over and over again. do you think dudley and smith were ranked? what about sean williams? don't think that skinner just got a lucky roll of the dice with rice.

do you really think people would be after K's head if he brought in some unranked pg this year or next year versus not bringing anyone in? i'm not saying that k should only go after hidden gems -- that would be silly -- but when you have this massive gaping hole and you cannot get any top ranked guys at the position i would think you would want to broaden your net a little bit. this isn't exactly something that just snuck up on the team a couple of weeks ago.

If Skinner constantly made Final Fours with those players, I would agree with you. However, Skinner has an average program at best. He does a solid job at a school where basketball isn't a big priority for the athletic program, but nothing impressive. Otherwise, he would always be in discussions for hirings at higher profile schools that have coaching vacancies. I really think you're focusing too much on losing to BC in one game. They hadn't beaten us in 24 years. It was a bad loss, but I can't buy your argument that K should be searching for hidden talent because Skinner does so.

With that said, I agree that perhaps K should think outside the box with recruiting, but it's possible that K thought that guys like Pocius and Czyz were the very hidden gems you're talking about when he got them on board. So I don't think he hasn't tried to find those players, he just hasn't found a Tyrese Rice or Stephen Curry yet.

I think the more important questions to ask are has K indeed been less involved in the primary stages of recruiting because of the Olympics, and are Wojo and Collins doing a good enough job with recruiting the right players.

[dukie8]

If Skinner constantly made Final Fours with those players, I would agree with you. However, Skinner has an average program at best. He does a solid job at a school where basketball isn't a big priority for the athletic program, but nothing impressive. Otherwise, he would always be in discussions for hirings at higher profile schools that have coaching vacancies. I really think you're focusing too much on losing to BC in one game. They hadn't beaten us in 24 years. It was a bad loss, but I can't buy your argument that K should be searching for hidden talent because Skinner does so.

With that said, I agree that perhaps K should think outside the box with recruiting, but it's possible that K thought that guys like Pocius and Czyz were the very hidden gems you're talking about when he got them on board. So I don't think he hasn't tried to find those players, he just hasn't found a Tyrese Rice or Stephen Curry yet.

I think the more important questions to ask are has K indeed been less involved in the primary stages of recruiting because of the Olympics, and are Wojo and Collins doing a good enough job with recruiting the right players.

i'm not saying that duke should scrap the way it does things and go the BC route because BC's program is the greatest thing since sliced bread. i was just using BC as an example that there are a lot of really good players out there who don't show up in rankings who could or would have helped duke's team a lot. there are plenty of other teams that also undercover and/or develop unheralded guys. do you think most of the guys on clemson or miami got a look from k?

i agree that the bigger picture questions are how involved has k been in recruiting and are wojo and collins doing a sufficient job and evaluating and wooing the right guys?

[Kedsy]

do you really think people would be after K's head if he brought in some unranked pg this year or next year versus not bringing anyone in?

What you're forgetting is that if K gave a scholarship in 2009 to a lower-tier PG who would at best be a career backup then he wouldn't have that scholarship to spend on legitimate top tier talent in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Most of those guys don't turn out to be Tyrese Rice. They turn out to be Andre Buckner.

[rsvman]

What you're forgetting is that if K gave a scholarship in 2009 to a lower-tier PG who would at best be a career backup then he wouldn't have that scholarship to spend on legitimate top tier talent in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Most of those guys don't turn out to be Tyrese Rice. They turn out to be Andre Buckner.

Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!


I'm sticking with my earlier, somewhat exaggerated, post on this topic. It's tough picking who's going to be a star even when you are choosing from among the top-rated talent. It's MORE difficult when you get to the second and third tiers.

That's not to say that a McClinton or a Tyrese Rice doesn't lurk somewhere below the surface; it's to say that IDENTIFYING that guy is a very, very difficult process.

[tbyers11]

if you don't think uconn fans have anything to be excited about, then you must be on a suicide watch over duke. as i wrote earlier, the program hit rock bottom 2 years ago and then improved last and then again this year. i'm not making excuses for them last year but losing your pg to a torn acl in the middle of a game kind of throws a kink in your game plan. it remains to be seen what they do in the ncaat this year but 24-2 as of mid feb this year, with a slew of top wins (including an actual road win against a top 25 team in december), is a lot better than what duke has done the past 3 years. i have to think that losing dyson is going to hurt them down the line but that remains to be seen.



I'm not sure how UConn's last couple of years have been any different than Duke's. I think both teams have improved quite a bit over the last couple of years. They both hit rock bottom 2 years ago (miss tourney for UConn, 6 seed and first round loss for Duke). Last year some improvement (first round flameout for UConn (and they were tied with San Diego when Price got hurt near the end of the first half) and second round flameout for Duke.

This year until 4 games ago both teams seemed quite improved and the overall impressions of both were similar. Duke is trending downward right now. However, after losing last night, UConn has to go to Marquette and Pittsburgh in the their last 4 games and could easily finish their regular season 2-3. Kind of like Duke's last five games. If Duke goes 5-1 (not inconceivable) and UConn goes 2-2 in their remaining games, I don't see a huge difference this year between 26-4 and 25-6 against similar schedules. If UConn goes to the FF and Duke loses its 3-6 matchup in the second round, you are correct that UConn has steadily improved while Duke has stagnated, but right now I don't see much difference in comparing the 3 year progression of both. There is a lot of ball yet to be played this year.

Also, UConn's slew of non-conference top 25 wins (at the time they played) includes Miami, Wisconsin, and Gonzaga. Only Gonzaga is still ranked and that win (the one that I believe you are referencing above) was not an actual road win at all. They beat Gonzaga in OT at the former Sonics arena in Seattle not in Spokane. This is comparable to Duke beating Illinois in the United Center (the type of game that Duke gets grief for all the time). Duke's non-conference win at Purdue is actually the only true road non-conference top 25 win that either team has this year. I think Duke's quality non-con wins this year (Purdue, Xavier, Davidson, Georgetown and Michigan) match up favorably to UConn's (Miami, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Michigan are the only wins of note).

[Memphis Devil]

What you're forgetting is that if K gave a scholarship in 2009 to a lower-tier PG who would at best be a career backup then he wouldn't have that scholarship to spend on legitimate top tier talent in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Most of those guys don't turn out to be Tyrese Rice. They turn out to be Andre Buckner.

I think that this is the best arguement on the subject.

Are you better off suiting up 5 top tier players even if one of them is playing slightly out of position? Is it better to have a highly rated 2 guard handle the duties of PG instead of an unranked/under valued PG?

[SoCalDukeFan]

I posted some of this earlier.
The highly ranked high school players are there because they are great high school players. They may not become great college players.

Consider Chris Burgess. Too quick for most high school big men and too big for most high school good defenders. In college, not quick enough nor I guess big enough and then other problems.

Taylor King. May become a star at Villanova but his high school team used a zone to hide his defensive shortcomings.

One reason the NBA loves the one year after graduation requirement is that it gives them a chance to see players play at the college level (or I guess pro in Europe level) before drafting them.

It is easy to say that we may be recruiting too many guys who are highly ranked in high school but are not going to become great college players - Paulus, McRoberts but it is a tough deal to identify them and actually not offer them if they want to come to Duke.

SoCal

[The1Bluedevil]

Recruiting services are doing the best they can with limited resources and -- quite frankly -- limited talent. They know that K and his staff, Roy and his staff, Bill Self and his staff are phenomenal evaluators of basketball players. The recruiting services have to respect the views of the top programs.

Moreover, the kinds of indicators that go into an evaluation are rather complex - skills, athleticism, leadership, ceiling, as well as very different attributes like shooting, passing, and rebounding.

The recruiting services, as they should, take into account all the available information. And if Duke, UNC, and Kansas are going after a player then that should infuence their views of the player, either as validation or -- whoa! -- what are we missing?

sagegrouse

Then the recruiting services did not bite on the offers Olek had then. If they would have he would have been a top 50 recruit, maybe higher.

[The1Bluedevil]

Say what you want about McRoberts short career at Duke. I know one thing, if he is roaming the middle as we speak then Duke is not 20 and 5.

[dukie8]

Then the recruiting services did not bite on the offers Olek had then. If they would have he would have been a top 50 recruit, maybe higher.

not necessarily. he was 66 and very well would not have been ranked had he not been recruited and signed by duke. i don't follow the whole recruiting process like some people on here do, but the ones who do have said repeatedly that duke's recruitment of a player is a self-fulfilling prophesy in terms of the rankings.

[dukie8]

Say what you want about McRoberts short career at Duke. I know one thing, if he is roaming the middle as we speak then Duke is not 20 and 5.

i don't know about that either. his presence didn't really help prevent the collapse and first round exit 2 years ago. at this point, it is neither here nor there being that he isn't on the team this year.

[The1Bluedevil]

not necessarily. he was 66 and very well would not have been ranked had he not been recruited and signed by duke. i don't follow the whole recruiting process like some people on here do, but the ones who do have said repeatedly that duke's recruitment of a player is a self-fulfilling prophesy in terms of the rankings.

I just have a hard time believing that a player could possibly have offers from North Carolina, UCLA, UCONN, FLORIDA and is ranked in the 90's that he jumps 50 spots just because Duke offers.

[gvtucker]

if you don't think uconn fans have anything to be excited about, then you must be on a suicide watch over duke. as i wrote earlier, the program hit rock bottom 2 years ago and then improved last and then again this year. i'm not making excuses for them last year but losing your pg to a torn acl in the middle of a game kind of throws a kink in your game plan. it remains to be seen what they do in the ncaat this year but 24-2 as of mid feb this year, with a slew of top wins (including an actual road win against a top 25 team in december), is a lot better than what duke has done the past 3 years.

I just have to laugh at this. Look back to just before the Wake Forest game, and Duke was exactly as you describe UConn right now. Duke was ranked #1 with a slew of top wins, including an actual win against a top 25 team in December (Purdue).

You don't have to look back three years to see Duke do what you're desiring, you only have to look back three weeks.

College basketball is a funny thing. One second you're on top of the world, then all of a sudden people are having heart attacks because you're on a losing streak. And things can turn around just as quickly. Who knows, it wouldn't be unprecedented to see UConn drop and Duke pass them up over the next three weeks.

[CDu]

i don't know about that either. his presence didn't really help prevent the collapse and first round exit 2 years ago. at this point, it is neither here nor there being that he isn't on the team this year.

He also didn't have the combination of talent and experience that this year's team has around him. I think his presence would make a big difference, with his shotblocking, rebounding, and passing ability.

That said, I agree with your last sentence. It's a moot point.

[dukelifer]

if you don't think uconn fans have anything to be excited about, then you must be on a suicide watch over duke. as i wrote earlier, the program hit rock bottom 2 years ago and then improved last and then again this year. i'm not making excuses for them last year but losing your pg to a torn acl in the middle of a game kind of throws a kink in your game plan. it remains to be seen what they do in the ncaat this year but 24-2 as of mid feb this year, with a slew of top wins (including an actual road win against a top 25 team in december), is a lot better than what duke has done the past 3 years. i have to think that losing dyson is going to hurt them down the line but that remains to be seen.

i'm not sure why you are so insistent on comparing losing your first 6 to losing 4 of your top 6 -- particularly when the 2 that you did not lose were battier and carrawell. i would venture to guess it is just a little bit easier to rebuild around those 2 all americans by sprinkling in a star recruiting class than to start from scratch with a star recruiting class. there is some irony in the fact that duke got upset by florida in the ncaat in 2000. if florida doesn't improve next year with the classes he brought it, i can assure you that people down in gator country will be less than thrilled but winning back-to-back national championships gives on a gigantic cushion to fall back on for many years to come.

No suicide watch is necessary. I imagine that you are a bit younger than me but after 31 years of watching Duke basketball, you gain a bit of perspective. I consider myself a very fortunate college bball fan. I have seen my team compete in 8 NC games (1978, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1999, 2001) and seen them win three times. If I were a Wake fan or a Virginia fan or a Clemson fan or a BC fan or a host of others, I have not seen this ever. Other than Duke and UNC, only Ga Tech in the ACC has gotten close in the past 26 years. What you learn over that much time of watching is how to be patient and to wait for that team that has something special. In 1986, Duke had a magical run and almost pulled it out. That loss hurt because they were so close to getting the first one- but the run was magical and that team was far from perfect. You might say it is all about recruiting and having NBA talent on the floor. Well I believe it is more than that- more then a simple recipe of a certain point guard or a big man that guarantees and NC. In my experience, it usually takes a combination of desire, hard work, talent and luck to win those games in March. Sometimes, like for Florida a few years back- it takes a very hot team at the end of the year. That team, as I recall, lost three games in a row in the last week of February and 4 of their last 8 of the regular season!

What bothers me about the current Duke team is not the lack of a big man or a world class, break-down-the-D-off-the-dribble pt guard. What bothers me is that right now- the Duke players are not playing to their abilities- not even to the abilities they showed last month. This is psychological. If they can calm down, find their collective mojo and pull it together, I think they are more than capable of making a run even if they are not a perfect team. Like a bunch of teams- they could get hot just at the right time. They just need to find that inner fight and competitiveness. I am also frustrated because time is running out on K's coaching career and it does take some time for the pieces to come together. But even if it never happens again, I know I have had the fortune of watching three Duke teams make that run and as long as K is coach they are usually in a position to make it once again. That is why I watch- just to see if this year will be another year. If it is not this year, well then next year you hope they will channel the disappointment and try once more. I hope that G wants to find out what it is like to make that run- to be part of history. Having him next year would give the needed talent, experience and desire. But if he does not- perhaps the next group will fight even harder like in 2000 and 2001.

My gut tells me that UNC is the team to beat this year. They were embarrassed in last year's FF- fueling their desire. They have the POY as a senior and a lot of talent behind him. Now all they need is the luck- and we have seen their ability to pull out close wins in the last couple of weeks. Teams like that usually win it all. If they fail, and I will not be crying if they do, they will try again next year. So if I were a UConn fan, I am also not confident that my team is ready to make that run this year and compete with the desire of UNC. And if not this year- they will lose pieces. Whatever happens, this is an interesting year. There is a lot of parity and what will separate the teams is competitiveness, desire and also a little luck.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

No suicide watch is necessary. I imagine that you are a bit younger than me but after 31 years of watching Duke basketball, you gain a bit of perspective. I consider myself a very fortunate college bball fan. I have seen my team compete in 8 NC games (1978, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1999, 2001) and seen them win three times. If I were a Wake fan or a Virginia fan or a Clemson fan or a BC fan or a host of others, I have not seen this ever. Other than Duke and UNC, only Ga Tech in the ACC has gotten close in the past 26 years. What you learn over that much time of watching is how to be patient and to wait for that team that has something special. In 1986, Duke had a magical run and almost pulled it out. That loss hurt because they were so close to getting the first one- but the run was magical and that team was far from perfect. You might say it is all about recruiting and having NBA talent on the floor. Well I believe it is more than that- more then a simple recipe of a certain point guard or a big man that guarantees and NC. In my experience, it usually takes a combination of desire, hard work, talent and luck to win those games in March. Sometimes, like for Florida a few years back- it takes a very hot team at the end of the year. That team, as I recall, lost three games in a row in the last week of February and 4 of their last 8 of the regular season!

What bothers me about the current Duke team is not the lack of a big man or a world class, break-down-the-D-off-the-dribble pt guard. What bothers me is that right now- the Duke players are not playing to their abilities- not even to the abilities they showed last month. This is psychological. If they can calm down, find their collective mojo and pull it together, I think they are more than capable of making a run even if they are not a perfect team. Like a bunch of teams- they could get hot just at the right time. They just need to find that inner fight and competitiveness. I am also frustrated because time is running out on K's coaching career and it does take some time for the pieces to come together. But even if it never happens again, I know I have had the fortune of watching three Duke teams make that run and as long as K is coach they are usually in a position to make it once again. That is why I watch- just to see if this year will be another year. If it is not this year, well then next year you hope they will channel the disappointment and try once more. I hope that G wants to find out what it is like to make that run- to be part of history. Having him next year would give the needed talent, experience and desire. But if he does not- perhaps the next group will fight even harder like in 2000 and 2001.

My gut tells me that UNC is the team to beat this year. They were embarrassed in last year's FF- fueling their desire. They have the POY as a senior and a lot of talent behind him. Now all they need is the luck- and we have seen their ability to pull out close wins in the last couple of weeks. Teams like that usually win it all. If they fail, and I will not be crying if they do, they will try again next year. So if I were a UConn fan, I am also not confident that my team is ready to make that run this year and compete with the desire of UNC. And if not this year- they will lose pieces. Whatever happens, this is an interesting year. There is a lot of parity and what will separate the teams is competitiveness, desire and also a little luck.

I truly enjoy reading your posts, dukelifer, and this is one of your best. You've noted some important elements which the winner of a national championship likely possesses or embodies. The only one I would add is magic. Every once in a while a team who comes out on top at the end of this long odyssey seems to have an undefinable quality I can only call magic.

In all the years Duke has been building this fine basketball program, others have been watching, learning and copying. The process began in the Bubas years and continues today. In today's game, widespread parity is a source of great challenges for Duke no matter who is recruited to wear the blue.

Throughout this season I've been mulling over what seems to be going on, trying to make sense of it. It's possible that what we're seeing this season is part of the cycles that characterize its growth and change. One question keeps coming up: Is a change of paradigm needed to separate the Duke program from the others again?

[78Devil]

DukeLifer's post makes sense. The reason I am frustrated this year is that, while I expected the problems with not having a highly mobile and athletic big man, I did not expect us to get beaten on the mental side this year. I think DukeLifer is right that the psychological issues are dominating now, and that is pretty unusual for a Duke team.

I think the reason folks are so worried about this year is that, if things continue down the Boston College path, we could easily have another early exit from the NCAAs. Its one thing to have an early exit because you don't have the personnel. You can use that as a motivator to recruit people to fill the missing roles. Its another if you are perceived as underachieving for three years in a row. If that happens, then the worry is not about past Recruiting, but on future Recruiting.

I choose to believe we will pull it together to be at least respectable in the NCAAs, though just reaching the Sweet 16 right now would make me happy. But no matter what, I support our coach and the quality of kids we have. I never, ever want to see us recruit kids of whom we can't be proud in terms of representing our school.

[dukelifer]

I truly enjoy reading your posts, dukelifer, and this is one of your best. You've noted some important elements which the winner of a national championship likely possesses or embodies. The only one I would add is magic. Every once in a while a team who comes out on top at the end of this long odyssey seems to have an undefinable quality I can only call magic.

In all the years Duke has been building this fine basketball program, others have been watching, learning and copying. The process began in the Bubas years and continues today. In today's game, widespread parity is a source of great challenges for Duke no matter who is recruited to wear the blue.

Throughout this season I've been mulling over what seems to be going on, trying to make sense of it. It's possible that what we're seeing this season is part of the cycles that characterize its growth and change. One question keeps coming up: Is a change of paradigm needed to separate the Duke program from the others again?

I think K runs a very difficult system to master. A friend of mine and I one likened the Duke system - its O and D- like playing Jazz. When it is done right- it is great. When it is done poorly- it is really bad. UNC;s system on the other hand is like classical music. Their play is the same with every team they put on the floor and the tune is so familiar that it is really hard to mess it up. Their system seems a bit easier to master quickly with good players which they always get- which in these days is important when players are not around for all four years..

Jazz is also not for everyone- not for every player. K needs a certain kind of "musician" for everything to come together. Grant Hill was the perfect artist for the K system- versatile, and unselfish and of course a gifted athlete. Battier was another such artist- a defensive savant- and a player that learned to find his offensive niche. Singler has the potential to be that guy as well- but he is neither the defensive savant that Battier was or the athlete that Grant was. He also, unfortunately, did not come into the a great band and he needs to start forming his own around him. That is tough to do when under the spotlight- but he is the right kind of player. Now the other guys need start playing along. Right now Scheyer, who has been a stable force is somehow off and this is a puzzle. It seems that more than anyone, he needs to find himself. Smith also seems to be doubting himself- something that I would not have predicted. But that is part of playing in the big time- pressure is pressure.

As for a paradigm shift, I just don't know. K may need to simplify a bit going forward. But he needs stability in his group. His group is still young- well the star is- and sometimes it takes a while. This is a strange team in many ways. The hope is that they can pull it together for the stretch run. I just don't have a good feel- and as much as this seems like its trending in the same direction as the last few years- it is somehow different. This team is better than those teams. I am hoping they will start realizing that sooner than later. Scheyer and Smith are the keys to the turn around should it come.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

I think K runs a very difficult system to master. A friend of mine and I one likened the Duke system - its O and D- like playing Jazz. When it is done right- it is great. When it is done poorly- it is really bad. UNC;s system on the other hand is like classical music. Their play is the same with every team they put on the floor and the tune is so familiar that it is really hard to mess it up. Their system seems a bit easier to master quickly with good players which they always get- which in these days is important when players are not around for all four years..

Jazz is also not for everyone- not for every player. K needs a certain kind of "musician" for everything to come together. Grant Hill was the perfect artist for the K system- versatile, and unselfish and of course a gifted athlete. Battier was another such artist- a defensive savant- and a player that learned to find his offensive niche. Singler has the potential to be that guy as well- but he is neither the defensive savant that Battier was or the athlete that Grant was. He also, unfortunately, did not come into the a great band and he needs to start forming his own around him. That is tough to do when under the spotlight- but he is the right kind of player. Now the other guys need start playing along. Right now Scheyer, who has been a stable force is somehow off and this is a puzzle. It seems that more than anyone, he needs to find himself. Smith also seems to be doubting himself- something that I would not have predicted. But that is part of playing in the big time- pressure is pressure.

As for a paradigm shift, I just don't know. K may need to simplify a bit going forward. But he needs stability in his group. His group is still young- well the star is- and sometimes it takes a while. This is a strange team in many ways. The hope is that they can pull it together for the stretch run. I just don't have a good feel- and as much as this seems like its trending in the same direction as the last few years- it is somehow different. This team is better than those teams. I am hoping they will start realizing that sooner than later. Scheyer and Smith are the keys to the turn around should it come.
The musical analogy for the systems of play at Duke and Carolina is brilliant!

Jazz has evolved so much over the years, just as basketball has done. When I think of a possible paradigm shift, if it were in music, it would be a new, ingenius riff which employs technique or instruments used in a different way than ever before. The offensive and defensive changes tried earlier in the season almost suggested that Coach was trying for some new "riffs."

Now when I listen to my jazz and classical CDs, I also be thinking of basketball!

[brevity]

I think K runs a very difficult system to master. A friend of mine and I one likened the Duke system - its O and D- like playing Jazz. When it is done right- it is great. When it is done poorly- it is really bad. UNC;s system on the other hand is like classical music. Their play is the same with every team they put on the floor and the tune is so familiar that it is really hard to mess it up. Their system seems a bit easier to master quickly with good players which they always get- which in these days is important when players are not around for all four years..

Strange analogy, but I dig. It helps explain why less experienced Duke teams play more erratically, and why fans may be confounded by certain performances.

Anyway, it sure beats referring to Dean Smith as "Michelangelo."

Go to hell classical music!

[dukie8]

I think K runs a very difficult system to master. A friend of mine and I one likened the Duke system - its O and D- like playing Jazz. When it is done right- it is great. When it is done poorly- it is really bad. UNC;s system on the other hand is like classical music. Their play is the same with every team they put on the floor and the tune is so familiar that it is really hard to mess it up. Their system seems a bit easier to master quickly with good players which they always get- which in these days is important when players are not around for all four years..

Jazz is also not for everyone- not for every player. K needs a certain kind of "musician" for everything to come together. Grant Hill was the perfect artist for the K system- versatile, and unselfish and of course a gifted athlete. Battier was another such artist- a defensive savant- and a player that learned to find his offensive niche. Singler has the potential to be that guy as well- but he is neither the defensive savant that Battier was or the athlete that Grant was. He also, unfortunately, did not come into the a great band and he needs to start forming his own around him. That is tough to do when under the spotlight- but he is the right kind of player. Now the other guys need start playing along. Right now Scheyer, who has been a stable force is somehow off and this is a puzzle. It seems that more than anyone, he needs to find himself. Smith also seems to be doubting himself- something that I would not have predicted. But that is part of playing in the big time- pressure is pressure.

As for a paradigm shift, I just don't know. K may need to simplify a bit going forward. But he needs stability in his group. His group is still young- well the star is- and sometimes it takes a while. This is a strange team in many ways. The hope is that they can pull it together for the stretch run. I just don't have a good feel- and as much as this seems like its trending in the same direction as the last few years- it is somehow different. This team is better than those teams. I am hoping they will start realizing that sooner than later. Scheyer and Smith are the keys to the turn around should it come.

i really enjoyed your analogy and have not heard something like that before. however, i do believe that you are fuzzy in terms of how you remember the '91 and '92 teams. laettner and hurley were the artists of those teams and not grant hill. in '91, grant only played 24.6 mpg (4th) and was 5th in scoring with 11.2 ppg (behind laettner, t hill, mccaffrey and hurley). in '92, with mccaffrey gone, he moved up to 3rd in scoring (14.0 ppg) but actually dropped to 5th in mpg with 30.3 (talk about no bench, duke had 5 guys average over 30 mpg that year). laettner led the team by a large margin in ppg and rpg both of those years with 19.8/8.7 21.5/7.9 and hurley was busy dishing out over 7 apg. grant would then go on to become the artist extraordinaire in '94 when he basically single-handily took the team to the finals.

[Biscuit]

I posted some of this earlier.
The highly ranked high school players are there because they are great high school players. They may not become great college players.

Consider Chris Burgess. Too quick for most high school big men and too big for most high school good defenders. In college, not quick enough nor I guess big enough and then other problems.

Taylor King. May become a star at Villanova but his high school team used a zone to hide his defensive shortcomings.

One reason the NBA loves the one year after graduation requirement is that it gives them a chance to see players play at the college level (or I guess pro in Europe level) before drafting them.

It is easy to say that we may be recruiting too many guys who are highly ranked in high school but are not going to become great college players - Paulus, McRoberts but it is a tough deal to identify them and actually not offer them if they want to come to Duke.

SoCal

This is false. They are ranked according to their perceived value at the college level, so in large part their level of competition is considered. That's why you see guys from Oak Hill who average 14 points a game ranked above guys who play in the middle of nowhere and average 40 points a game. In fact, I believe the rankings are based in large part on how these guys perform in camps and on the AAU circuit and such, where they compete against each other. How they perform for their high school is secondary. In fact, I'd say it's tertiary, after their AAU/camp performances and their physical makeup.

On the recruiting issue, from a light blue perspective- those that are saying there's a lot of luck involved at the elite level are correct. The most obvious example, which I haven't seen mentioned here, is UNC getting Sean May only because they missed out on Shavlik Randolph. It doesn't get much luckier than that. However, I do think that K has been subpar on the recruiting trail over the last two to three years, for whatever reason.

[dukelifer]

i really enjoyed your analogy and have not heard something like that before. however, i do believe that you are fuzzy in terms of how you remember the '91 and '92 teams. laettner and hurley were the artists of those teams and not grant hill. in '91, grant only played 24.6 mpg (4th) and was 5th in scoring with 11.2 ppg (behind laettner, t hill, mccaffrey and hurley). in '92, with mccaffrey gone, he moved up to 3rd in scoring (14.0 ppg) but actually dropped to 5th in mpg with 30.3 (talk about no bench, duke had 5 guys average over 30 mpg that year). laettner led the team by a large margin in ppg and rpg both of those years with 19.8/8.7 21.5/7.9 and hurley was busy dishing out over 7 apg. grant would then go on to become the artist extraordinaire in '94 when he basically single-handily took the team to the finals.
I agree there were a few artists on those '91 and '92 teams but I still think that Grant was the difference maker in the clutch moments. He brought something to that team that was not there before on any of K's teams. In 1992, when Michigan's talent was pushing Duke to the limit, Grant Hill took over in the last few minutes and made it a 20 point win. But in general the more players who understand the system, the better for K. This current group should be getting it by now but they are not clicking the past few weeks. I think this is a puzzle for K as well. This current team has not found its Hurley/Laettner or Hill or Battier type leader. To me that is part of the issue. Somebody needs to own this team.

[miramar]

Since we are on the subject of the 91 and 92 teams, and getting away from the musical and artistic aspects of the team, as I recall Coach K used to like the fact that Laettner was his M.F. In other words, he could come down on people and make sure the team was ready to play (or even ready to stomp on opposing players, I suppose). The 2001 team had a kinder and gentler Shane Battier, but he could do the same thing, although probably with a smile.

I wonder if part of the problem of late is that we haven't had that effective team leader who can pick everybody up when they are down. Two years ago it was supposed to be McRobert's team, but obviously that didn't work out for a variety of reasons (e.g., the fact that at least some of his teammates couldn't stand him). But who has been the team leader for the last two years? (Perhaps Paulus should have taken on that responsibility, but he has had to overcome injuries and a big change in his role.)

If anyone has any insight on the team's dynamics or chemistry, I would be delighted to hear your thoughts on the leadership question.

[Devilsfan]

How about the Cut approach, get some speed at your skill positions. I think our guards would rank behind Miami, Wake, unc, BC in quickness. And how about a bad a** from the projects instead of a choir boy that is a project on the inside.

[sagegrouse]

Since we are on the subject of the 91 and 92 teams, and getting away from the musical and artistic aspects of the team, as I recall Coach K used to like the fact that Laettner was his M.F. In other words, he could come down on people and make sure the team was ready to play (or even ready to stomp on opposing players, I suppose). The 2001 team had a kinder and gentler Shane Battier, but he could do the same thing, although probably with a smile.

I wonder if part of the problem of late is that we haven't had that effective team leader who can pick everybody up when they are down. Two years ago it was supposed to be McRobert's team, but obviously that didn't work out for a variety of reasons (e.g., the fact that at least some of his teammates couldn't stand him). But who has been the team leader for the last two years? (Perhaps Paulus should have taken on that responsibility, but he has had to overcome injuries and a big change in his role.)

If anyone has any insight on the team's dynamics or chemistry, I would be delighted to hear your thoughts on the leadership question.

One advantage of the 1991 and 1992 teams IMHO is that the two geat players on that team were a PG and a Center. I believe that is the most lethal combination, if you have two A-A players or two All-Pros in the NBA. The Center has someone who can get him the ball; the PG has a super-credible passing threat to the inside that gives him more space to shoot or to drive. (And having a future A-A like Grant added a lot as well.) I think this is a stronger combination than two guards, or two forwards, or a shooting guard and a center (like JJ and Shelden).

I was in LA when the Lakers had the 33-game win streak: Wilt was in the middle and Jerry West was the guard. (Of course, having Elgin Baylor around didn't hurt either.) With the early Celtic championships, Russell was supported by first Cousy and then KC Jones (who, of course, was also teamed with Russell for two NCAA championships at USF). Kareem and Magic.

I also believe you can win a NC without this combination, but that doesn't change the main point.

sagegrouse

[miramar]

Re: I was in LA when the Lakers had the 33-game win streak: Wilt was in the middle and Jerry West was the guard. (Of course, having Elgin Baylor around didn't hurt either.)

Good point on the guard-center combination, but as I recall the 33-game winning streak started right after Baylor retired at the beginning of the season and Jimmy McMillian took his place in the starting lineup. Jimmy Mac went to Columbia, and I'm not sure how many players since then have gone from the Ivy League to NBA stardom.