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Jumbo
02-15-2009, 12:43 PM
I’ve spent very little time on the board over the past few days, and that’s a good thing. My thoughts haven’t been colored by the post-UNC fallout. In fact, I haven’t dwelled on that game much at all. Now that I’m taking the time to reflect – which is essential before looking ahead -- I feel fresh ... and even hopeful.

That sense of hope, of course, is tied to yet another group of questions that has arisen with the dawn of Phase IV, which we’ll consider the remainder of the regular season. If Duke can answer most of these affirmatively, we’ll be in very good shape. So here’s what I’m wondering about – and what I’ll watch closely – over the next seven games. And I’ll start with the most important issue of all.

Have we already seen the best Duke has to offer?
That seems to be one of the many fears abounding among Duke fans. A lot of people see a pattern in the last couple of seasons, and some have decided that we’re witnessing more of the same. Maybe Duke peaked against Xavier. Or against Maryland. Maybe everyone else is playing as hard as Duke did at the beginning of the year, narrowing the gap between teams.

Maybe. But maybe Duke has another level to reach, too. Maybe the inconsistency of the last month has to do with the fact that this team is still growing, still maturing, still mastering concepts. Unlike last year at this time, I can envision a Duke team with the same personnel playing at a much higher level. Such a game would involve a mix of the defensive intensity we saw earlier with the offensive efficiency we saw, say, in the first half against Carolina. It would include consistent scoring performances from Singler, Scheyer and Henderson (both inside and out), some easy baskets in the open court from Smith, a couple of plays inside from Zoubek to open things up, a couple of big jumpers from Paulus. We’ve seen all of these things at various points during the season. Can Duke put them together at one time?

Can Duke rediscover its identity?
Through the first few ACC games (and maybe even the Wake loss), Duke established a backbone of strong, tough, relentless defense. It was there every night, whether jump shots were falling or not. It kept this team in any game.
Recently, we haven’t seen that – not against Clemson, Miami or Carolina, especially. Really simply, can Duke regain that level of team defense against better opponents? Or did we look better on D earlier in the season because we were just playing harder than other teams?

Can this team forget about Carolina, and just worry about itself? And can it maintain a healthy ego in the process?
Kids are fragile. Duke’s kids clearly poured their hearts into that Carolina game, and came up short. That can destroy some confidence. So can a blowout loss at Clemson, a first-half egg against Miami and a close, painful loss at Wake.
Or, those can be bumps in the road for a group of kids who know they’re good, know they’re capable of beating anyone, anywhere and know that their best ball is ahead of them. This is purely a mental issue. The guys talked a lot before the season about how they were young the last two years, and thus lost their confidence easily. Now, we’re older and more mature, and we can’t afford that kind of a mental slip. This is something the kids can control. Simply, they need to believe in themselves as strongly as ever before.

Your move, Nolan Smith. What will it be?
So Greg Paulus took the starting job back. Is Nolan going down without a fight? For Duke’s sake, he can’t. The Carolina game offered hope, as Nolan looked possessed at times – intense, confident, ready to attack. His defense at the top is critical. So, too, is his ability to push the ball and get a couple of easy baskets on the break. In the half-court, he needs to stop thinking of himself as a “point guard” and just play. When he and Scheyer are in the backcourt together, that’s old school, back when teams just had “guards.” Either one can initiate plays. Either one can distribute. So Nolan has to stop confining his game into some arbitrary position and just start playing basketball again. He knows he needs to attack. If he does that, he could have his job back pretty soon. Or he can let the point guard swap get to his head and struggle forward. Again, this is up to Nolan.

Is The Slump over?
We know how poorly Jon Scheyer shot over the last few weeks. But now he’s coming of back-to-back 20-plus games. His shooting percentage wasn’t great (11-for-28 in those two games), but he was attacking more, regaining his scoring knack, etc. Hopefully, the efficiency will return soon. Because Duke is a different team when he is a reliable scorer. Suddenly, we have a Big Three. And if the defense has to respect Jon’s scoring, all the other things he does so well, particularly as a distributor, should come easier. Let’s hope he’s up for a steady stretch run, just like he offered last season.

Was there a glimmer of long-term hope that emerged in the last two games, even though they were tough?
I’ve been concerned about our offense all season, but I saw a lot to like in the last two games. It started in the second half against Miami where, against a zone, we still managed to add more motion off the ball. That opened things up so that even though we shot a ton of threes, they were great looks. And because of that motion, guys were able to drive against the zone, too. Then, against UNC, the offense really looked superb in stretches. Granted, some of that had to do with UNC’s lack of defensive effort. But again, there was more movement off the ball, quicker passing, etc. When we struggled in the second half, it was the result of shooting too quickly. But it never felt like a struggle to get a good shot, like we’d seen for much of the season. If we’ve added a more versatile, motion-based approach, we’ll be tougher to guard.

Zzzzzzzzzz?
Is Brian Zoubek ready to hibernate? Has he lost confidence and the ability to play against guys his own size? Will Duke stop looking to run some stuff through him? Or, can he challenge himself to play better? Can he bottle whatever he has shown in spurts to give us 15-20 quality minutes each night? There’s no question that just by taking up (and holding) space, he makes our defense better. There’s no question that just by entering the ball to him at the mid-post, our offense presents a different look. From there, it’s up to Brian. He can hold his ground on D, avoid fouling, and move just well enough to stay with his guy and cover for his teammates. On offense, he can control the ball, use his excellent vision to find teammates, hit a hook shot or two, and crash the offensive boards. What’s it gonna be?

Can we get easy baskets?
I’m really starting to believe that – especially later in the year – games are decided by how few times you have to work hard for points. For Duke, that means pushing the ball off turnovers and rebounds, running inbounds plays successfully, attacking early to get teams in foul trouble, so a reach-in with eight minutes left sends us to the line. Pay attention to this – it will be really important.

Will the offseason changes pay off?
Supposedly, Duke altered its conditioning program to have fresher legs later in the season. We decided to play bigger so Singler wouldn’t get pounded night after night. Supposedly we changed the practice routine as well. So, we’re getting to the point in the season where those changes – hopefully – should be manifested in Duke’s play.

You’ll notice there are plenty of issues some people have lamented that I haven’t identified. For instance, I never mentioned Elliot Williams or Miles Plumlee, and that’s because I believe if the other issues are resolved, their contributions become luxuries, not necessities. I didn’t worry about an over-reliance on threes, because if Duke is running a successful motion offense, that’ll take care of itself, too.

The important thing, again, is that this team still has plenty of upside. I can’t stress that strongly enough. I can’t guarantee that the guys will reach their potential, but it exists. And as long as it exists, we have to remain hopeful that this can be a really special season.

BlueintheFace
02-15-2009, 01:15 PM
I am beginning to suspect that K has decided that Z is one year away from being able to contribute on a final four caliber team... again. I hope I am wrong.

MChambers
02-15-2009, 01:22 PM
Thanks for another excellent analysis. I'm mostly concerned about Smith and Zoubek getting back to where they were. I think that is very connected to our defensive struggles.

DukieInBrasil
02-15-2009, 06:41 PM
I was pretty pumped up on Z and kinda deflated on LT a while back, but that has kinda reversed lately. Lately (including 1st half of BC) LT has given us some pretty solid ball, not great but enough.
So maybe that should enter into the questions for Phase IV Jumbo; what kind of play will we get from LT now that he appears to have grabbed the minutes that Z is shedding? Will they team up to form an actual tandem threat or will it be totally random in how effective either or both are on a given night?

rtnorthrup
02-15-2009, 07:33 PM
A very inauspicious start to Phase IV.

77devil
02-15-2009, 07:39 PM
I’ve spent very little time on the board over the past few days, and that’s a good thing. My thoughts haven’t been colored by the post-UNC fallout. In fact, I haven’t dwelled on that game much at all. Now that I’m taking the time to reflect – which is essential before looking ahead -- I feel fresh ... and even hopeful.

That sense of hope, of course, is tied to yet another group of questions that has arisen with the dawn of Phase IV, which we’ll consider the remainder of the regular season. If Duke can answer most of these affirmatively, we’ll be in very good shape. So here’s what I’m wondering about – and what I’ll watch closely – over the next seven games. And I’ll start with the most important issue of all.

Have we already seen the best Duke has to offer?
That seems to be one of the many fears abounding among Duke fans. A lot of people see a pattern in the last couple of seasons, and some have decided that we’re witnessing more of the same. Maybe Duke peaked against Xavier. Or against Maryland. Maybe everyone else is playing as hard as Duke did at the beginning of the year, narrowing the gap between teams.

Maybe. But maybe Duke has another level to reach, too. Maybe the inconsistency of the last month has to do with the fact that this team is still growing, still maturing, still mastering concepts. Unlike last year at this time, I can envision a Duke team with the same personnel playing at a much higher level. Such a game would involve a mix of the defensive intensity we saw earlier with the offensive efficiency we saw, say, in the first half against Carolina. It would include consistent scoring performances from Singler, Scheyer and Henderson (both inside and out), some easy baskets in the open court from Smith, a couple of plays inside from Zoubek to open things up, a couple of big jumpers from Paulus. We’ve seen all of these things at various points during the season. Can Duke put them together at one time?

Can Duke rediscover its identity?
Through the first few ACC games (and maybe even the Wake loss), Duke established a backbone of strong, tough, relentless defense. It was there every night, whether jump shots were falling or not. It kept this team in any game.
Recently, we haven’t seen that – not against Clemson, Miami or Carolina, especially. Really simply, can Duke regain that level of team defense against better opponents? Or did we look better on D earlier in the season because we were just playing harder than other teams?

Can this team forget about Carolina, and just worry about itself? And can it maintain a healthy ego in the process?
Kids are fragile. Duke’s kids clearly poured their hearts into that Carolina game, and came up short. That can destroy some confidence. So can a blowout loss at Clemson, a first-half egg against Miami and a close, painful loss at Wake.
Or, those can be bumps in the road for a group of kids who know they’re good, know they’re capable of beating anyone, anywhere and know that their best ball is ahead of them. This is purely a mental issue. The guys talked a lot before the season about how they were young the last two years, and thus lost their confidence easily. Now, we’re older and more mature, and we can’t afford that kind of a mental slip. This is something the kids can control. Simply, they need to believe in themselves as strongly as ever before.

Your move, Nolan Smith. What will it be?
So Greg Paulus took the starting job back. Is Nolan going down without a fight? For Duke’s sake, he can’t. The Carolina game offered hope, as Nolan looked possessed at times – intense, confident, ready to attack. His defense at the top is critical. So, too, is his ability to push the ball and get a couple of easy baskets on the break. In the half-court, he needs to stop thinking of himself as a “point guard” and just play. When he and Scheyer are in the backcourt together, that’s old school, back when teams just had “guards.” Either one can initiate plays. Either one can distribute. So Nolan has to stop confining his game into some arbitrary position and just start playing basketball again. He knows he needs to attack. If he does that, he could have his job back pretty soon. Or he can let the point guard swap get to his head and struggle forward. Again, this is up to Nolan.

Is The Slump over?
We know how poorly Jon Scheyer shot over the last few weeks. But now he’s coming of back-to-back 20-plus games. His shooting percentage wasn’t great (11-for-28 in those two games), but he was attacking more, regaining his scoring knack, etc. Hopefully, the efficiency will return soon. Because Duke is a different team when he is a reliable scorer. Suddenly, we have a Big Three. And if the defense has to respect Jon’s scoring, all the other things he does so well, particularly as a distributor, should come easier. Let’s hope he’s up for a steady stretch run, just like he offered last season.

Was there a glimmer of long-term hope that emerged in the last two games, even though they were tough?
I’ve been concerned about our offense all season, but I saw a lot to like in the last two games. It started in the second half against Miami where, against a zone, we still managed to add more motion off the ball. That opened things up so that even though we shot a ton of threes, they were great looks. And because of that motion, guys were able to drive against the zone, too. Then, against UNC, the offense really looked superb in stretches. Granted, some of that had to do with UNC’s lack of defensive effort. But again, there was more movement off the ball, quicker passing, etc. When we struggled in the second half, it was the result of shooting too quickly. But it never felt like a struggle to get a good shot, like we’d seen for much of the season. If we’ve added a more versatile, motion-based approach, we’ll be tougher to guard.

Zzzzzzzzzz?
Is Brian Zoubek ready to hibernate? Has he lost confidence and the ability to play against guys his own size? Will Duke stop looking to run some stuff through him? Or, can he challenge himself to play better? Can he bottle whatever he has shown in spurts to give us 15-20 quality minutes each night? There’s no question that just by taking up (and holding) space, he makes our defense better. There’s no question that just by entering the ball to him at the mid-post, our offense presents a different look. From there, it’s up to Brian. He can hold his ground on D, avoid fouling, and move just well enough to stay with his guy and cover for his teammates. On offense, he can control the ball, use his excellent vision to find teammates, hit a hook shot or two, and crash the offensive boards. What’s it gonna be?

Can we get easy baskets?
I’m really starting to believe that – especially later in the year – games are decided by how few times you have to work hard for points. For Duke, that means pushing the ball off turnovers and rebounds, running inbounds plays successfully, attacking early to get teams in foul trouble, so a reach-in with eight minutes left sends us to the line. Pay attention to this – it will be really important.

Will the offseason changes pay off?
Supposedly, Duke altered its conditioning program to have fresher legs later in the season. We decided to play bigger so Singler wouldn’t get pounded night after night. Supposedly we changed the practice routine as well. So, we’re getting to the point in the season where those changes – hopefully – should be manifested in Duke’s play.

You’ll notice there are plenty of issues some people have lamented that I haven’t identified. For instance, I never mentioned Elliot Williams or Miles Plumlee, and that’s because I believe if the other issues are resolved, their contributions become luxuries, not necessities. I didn’t worry about an over-reliance on threes, because if Duke is running a successful motion offense, that’ll take care of itself, too.

The important thing, again, is that this team still has plenty of upside. I can’t stress that strongly enough. I can’t guarantee that the guys will reach their potential, but it exists. And as long as it exists, we have to remain hopeful that this can be a really special season.

Yes, unlikely, unlikely, no change, no, apparently not, yes, not if you launch mostly threes, don't think it matters

loran16
02-15-2009, 07:46 PM
Your move, Nolan Smith. What will it be?
So Greg Paulus took the starting job back. Is Nolan going down without a fight? For Duke’s sake, he can’t. The Carolina game offered hope, as Nolan looked possessed at times – intense, confident, ready to attack. His defense at the top is critical. So, too, is his ability to push the ball and get a couple of easy baskets on the break. In the half-court, he needs to stop thinking of himself as a “point guard” and just play. When he and Scheyer are in the backcourt together, that’s old school, back when teams just had “guards.” Either one can initiate plays. Either one can distribute. So Nolan has to stop confining his game into some arbitrary position and just start playing basketball again. He knows he needs to attack. If he does that, he could have his job back pretty soon. Or he can let the point guard swap get to his head and struggle forward. Again, this is up to Nolan.


Nolan will make or break this team. Case example today. Our D has been really poor since his play has deteriorated.

Kedsy
02-15-2009, 08:55 PM
Great job, Jumbo. All your points are good, but your first point really resonates with me. Last year at this time, although we obviously peaked in the Carolina game, our play had been very consistent, so when it dropped off we never recovered. This year appears different, because our play has been so inconsistent.

If you look at Pomeroy's rankings, he has a rating for "consistency." Duke ranks 300th in the country in that ranking (out of 344), meaning we are one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation. Carolina's, in contrast, is #68, meaning what you see is pretty much what you get. There's not a lot of room for improvement there.

What does this mean for Duke? To me, it means we're dangerous. Sure, we could lose to a BC or Michigan, but we could also play like the best team in the country if we get hot. Here's hoping, anyway.

Kedsy
02-15-2009, 08:57 PM
Nolan will make or break this team. Case example today. Our D has been really poor since his play has deteriorated.

I agree. Nolan is a huge key for our future success this season.

superdave
02-15-2009, 10:24 PM
Nice analysis.

I do think easy buckets would be a great sign because they typically come from great defense which come from intensity which will be lead by Nolan on the ball.

RelativeWays
02-15-2009, 10:28 PM
Jumbo's list is missing a very important question:

Which item will be most important to you to survive the rest of this year, alcohol or antacid tablets? ;)

bfree
02-15-2009, 10:54 PM
A very inauspicious start to Phase IV.

Jumbo, when does Phase V start?

Cicero
02-15-2009, 11:05 PM
Jumbo, when does Phase V start?

Presumably right after Phase IV ends, which is the end of the regular season...


the dawn of Phase IV, which we’ll consider the remainder of the regular season.

...therefore Phase V would begin with Duke's first game of the ACC Tournament. Hopefully Phase V (and VI, if the NCAA Tournament constitutes a separate phase) will be long-lasting!

Kfanarmy
02-15-2009, 11:37 PM
Have we already seen the best Duke has to offer?
Hard to say on this, but I see little evidence of set plays to stabilize Duke, or early timeouts for that matter, when the other team makes a run, both staples of 90's Duke teams.



Can Duke rediscover its identity?I'm not sure what the identity is. Duke has had great half-court defense most of the year, but ineffective transition defense. When the team isn't hitting its shot, it has really struggled to contain the other teams offense. Early on, perhaps talent differential made up the difference...against athletic ACC teams, transition D seems to be a real weakness, and the jury is still out as to whether any significant change has occurred on offense. The team seems the same to me, perhaps this is really just a top 12-20 team that rose to the top of the rankings based on brand. Top 20 is good, just not what Duke fans were expecting.



...And can it maintain a healthy ego in the process?
there are about 3 shooters on the team that seem to be in a confidence crisis, as soon as they miss a couple, they begin hesitating or not shooting...putting an awful lot of pressure and expectation on Singler and Henderson



Zzzzzzzzzz?
The problem, if there is one, with Zoubek is no latitude for a mistake. His first gets him yanked from the game. He wasn't there against UNC for the final 16 or late in the 2nd half against BC for who knows what reason....I'm guessing there must be one, but am not sure the numbers reflect it. Can't be good for his long-term confidence, nor for the chemistry of the team.


Can we get easy baskets?No one is looking to push, and when they do, it seems, often as not the ball is thrown away. how many times against Carolina did Duke pull up with numbers going down on the offensive end in the 2nd half. I think Wake's blocks affected the team significantly.

The team has a lot of upside, but there seems to be so many small issues that it will be difficult to adjust them all. 3 point shooting does not seem to be getting better, so this team, IMO needs to learn some inside out, set plays...even if "inside" means having someone who can pass from the foul line.

RepoMan
02-16-2009, 09:50 AM
Can Duke rediscover its identity?
Through the first few ACC games (and maybe even the Wake loss), Duke established a backbone of strong, tough, relentless defense. It was there every night, whether jump shots were falling or not. It kept this team in any game.
Recently, we haven’t seen that – not against Clemson, Miami or Carolina, especially. Really simply, can Duke regain that level of team defense against better opponents? Or did we look better on D earlier in the season because we were just playing harder than other teams?


I think this is the key for this team.

Thanks, Jumbo.

miramar
02-16-2009, 10:01 AM
Excellent post, as always.

Re: Unlike last year at this time, I can envision a Duke team with the same personnel playing at a much higher level.

That’s an important point, but also the real mystery here. We’re almost in March and this team clearly has the ability to do so much better, something that we couldn’t really say the last couple of years.

Re: We’ve seen all of these things at various points during the season. Can Duke put them together at one time?

I haven’t given up yet--and won't until the last buzzer sounds--but I’m worried.

Many of the issues in the post are problems that a team like Duke should not have at this point of the season. It’s like the G-Man’s comment last night that Coach K hasn’t given up on Zoubek, Thomas, and Plumlee yet. Although Lance played well, the fact that he mentioned it tells you that it’s a real concern, although only one of many.

NSDukeFan
02-16-2009, 10:04 AM
Yes, unlikely, unlikely, no change, no, apparently not, yes, not if you launch mostly threes, don't think it matters

Wow, I hope you are ok and are still going to watch the best part of the season.

Thanks again for the analysis Jumbo. I look forward to the Phase analyses.
I agree very much with easy baskets. If we are playing against an equally talented team, the difference between a win and a loss can often be points off turnovers, rebounds and easy (fast-break especially) baskets. Fortunately, rebounding has been much better than the past couple of years, turnover differential I believe was positive until our recent defensive struggles and a few fast-break easy buckets and/or preventing the opposition from these could be very valuable.
I hope we can regain our defensive identity, so that if we are having a poor shooting night, we still have a chance to win.
I am excited for another month and a half of exciting basketball.

ncexnyc
02-16-2009, 02:32 PM
Have we already seen the best Duke has to offer?

It's only fitting that Jumbo listed this question first, as it's the most crucial one on his list.

Based on what I saw Sunday night and at the close of Phase III, I'd have to say yes. We don't appear to have it in us to play a full game. We just don't seem constitent on either end of the court.

Our line-up is for the most part set, with minor adjustments such as Greg for Nolan and Lance for Brian being the only feasible changes. The time for Ewill, Marty and Miles to become major cogs in this team is past and any attempt to get them more time will only disrupt an already shaky team chemistry.

Jumbo talked about other teams now playing as hard as Duke did earlier in the season, but I believe it's more that Duke presents a set line-up sooner, while other teams take the chance on giving freshman more on court team, with the view that it's where you finish the season as a team being more important than where you start it. I know there are people who disagree with my viewpoint and say players earn their oncourt time in practice, but why has Duke appeared to peak to early, while other teams surge at the end?

The season isn't lost, but Coach K needs to realize exactly what he has and optimize the abilities of the players he has. In other words the staff needs to put the players into positions where they can succeed.

77devil
02-16-2009, 03:33 PM
Wow, I hope you are ok and are still going to watch the best part of the season.

I am fine and I always watch with great interest until the end of the Duke season no matter what. I am also a pragmatist and very circumspect about the prospects for this team. Jumbo asked questions and I answered them objectively, from my perspective, and without emotion.

I was a student during the worst of times for Duke basketball. Even though expectations are so much higher now, the current situation is a walk in the park by comparison.

trinity92
02-16-2009, 06:18 PM
Nolan is the key-- if he doesn't develop into a true playmaker, not only will we struggle this season, but next season, and probably the one after, unless we nab John Wall or Tyler Thornton arrives ready to start, both unlikely outcomes.

Nolan is also the key to easy baskets. He's shown he can carve up a defense and get to the hoop or dish for easy baskets, but he hasn't done it in a good long while.

Going into this season without recruiting a banger/post player or a true PG, the only reasons we had to believe our results would be different from last year's were the following:

-Z or LT would improve dramatically, or Plumlee would be a stud. Didn't happen
-Nolan would run the team effectively. Happened early, but totally gone recently.
-Everyone else would be a year older, wiser and stronger. I'd say this has been the case, but not enough to outweigh our failures to improve in the other categories.

As a result of the foregoing, our Team Identity at this point is that we're eerily close to being the same team as last year. We even started our recent slide at a similar time to last year's: After our most impressive win of the season-- last year @ Carolina, this year at home vs. Maryland.

I am not writing off the season, both because of the royal blue coursing through my veins and because I see some of the same flashes of upside Jumbo does. Even acknowledging our shortcomings, I see us making the second weekend of the tournament, and with the right matchups, some luck and renewed vigor, plus a sprinkling of Coach K's magic pixie dust, a FF run.

Go Duke!

devildownunder
02-16-2009, 06:57 PM
Have we already seen the best Duke has to offer?
That seems to be one of the many fears abounding among Duke fans. A lot of people see a pattern in the last couple of seasons, and some have decided that we’re witnessing more of the same. Maybe Duke peaked against Xavier. Or against Maryland. Maybe everyone else is playing as hard as Duke did at the beginning of the year, narrowing the gap between teams.

Maybe. But maybe Duke has another level to reach, too. Maybe the inconsistency of the last month has to do with the fact that this team is still growing, still maturing, still mastering concepts. Unlike last year at this time, I can envision a Duke team with the same personnel playing at a much higher level. Such a game would involve a mix of the defensive intensity we saw earlier with the offensive efficiency we saw, say, in the first half against Carolina. It would include consistent scoring performances from Singler, Scheyer and Henderson (both inside and out), some easy baskets in the open court from Smith, a couple of plays inside from Zoubek to open things up, a couple of big jumpers from Paulus. We’ve seen all of these things at various points during the season. Can Duke put them together at one time?

Well, you know they will keep trying. Still, it's hard not to envision such an aligning of planets as wishful thinking at this late date in the season. largely because of issues you focus on later.


Can Duke rediscover its identity?
Through the first few ACC games (and maybe even the Wake loss), Duke established a backbone of strong, tough, relentless defense. It was there every night, whether jump shots were falling or not. It kept this team in any game.
Recently, we haven’t seen that – not against Clemson, Miami or Carolina, especially. Really simply, can Duke regain that level of team defense against better opponents? Or did we look better on D earlier in the season because we were just playing harder than other teams?

This one it would be interesting to hear your thoughts on? What do you think about the prospect of becoming a force on D again? Has Duke slacked off or has the competition gone to another level and Duke doesn't have another level to reach? If we are to assume that Paulus will have to have significant minutes the rest of the year, how does that affect our prospects for good defense the rest of the way? Can Nolan get his game in order enough for it to matter? There are so many questions with the D at this point -- i've touched on just a couple of perimeter ones. My feeling is that the perimeter issues depend on whether Nolan can turn around his season, so I think you are right to focus on him. Here's hoping the BC game was not indicative of what we'll see from him the rest of the way. And let me say again, I do not want to pick on Nolan. I really feel for him for what he's gone through this year. I think his task was almost impossible and I hope he emerges from it stronger.

About whether teams' effort has caught up to ours, I can't see that as the case. Teams really get up for Duke. That's not just a cliche. What I do think happens, and has happened in previous years recently, is that K has his teams better prepared strategically out of the gate, so some teams do catch up to that level of preparation as the season goes on.

As for overall team strategy, I was encouraged to hear that K went to some pressing against BC and that he has used some zone this year. I think that his willingness to experiment comes from seeing some real potential for greatness in this team but also recognising that helping this group reach that high level this season probably requires more romancing the stone than usual. It's probably too late to overhaul the whole defense but maybe there are some tweaks. I'm not the best defensive strategist I don't think, so i'll leave it to others to suggest them.


Can this team forget about Carolina, and just worry about itself? And can it maintain a healthy ego in the process?
Kids are fragile. Duke’s kids clearly poured their hearts into that Carolina game, and came up short. That can destroy some confidence. So can a blowout loss at Clemson, a first-half egg against Miami and a close, painful loss at Wake.
Or, those can be bumps in the road for a group of kids who know they’re good, know they’re capable of beating anyone, anywhere and know that their best ball is ahead of them. This is purely a mental issue. The guys talked a lot before the season about how they were young the last two years, and thus lost their confidence easily. Now, we’re older and more mature, and we can’t afford that kind of a mental slip. This is something the kids can control. Simply, they need to believe in themselves as strongly as ever before.

They came out and worked their butts off against BC and if they were ever going to be devastated by a loss, that would've been the time for it to happen. So as a group, I think they will be OK. As individuals, I am very concerned about Nolan Smith's psyche and Big Z's confidence. On the positive side, Lance Thomas seems to be pouring his heart and soul into everything, whether the results are good or not. He must serve as an emotional inspiration.


Your move, Nolan Smith. What will it be?
So Greg Paulus took the starting job back. Is Nolan going down without a fight? For Duke’s sake, he can’t. The Carolina game offered hope, as Nolan looked possessed at times – intense, confident, ready to attack. His defense at the top is critical. So, too, is his ability to push the ball and get a couple of easy baskets on the break. In the half-court, he needs to stop thinking of himself as a “point guard” and just play. When he and Scheyer are in the backcourt together, that’s old school, back when teams just had “guards.” Either one can initiate plays. Either one can distribute. So Nolan has to stop confining his game into some arbitrary position and just start playing basketball again. He knows he needs to attack. If he does that, he could have his job back pretty soon. Or he can let the point guard swap get to his head and struggle forward. Again, this is up to Nolan.

Said a lot about this already but there is even more to tell. Other players at Duke have been asked to make big transitions in their roles and I don't know of any of them who succeeded in the first season. Chris Duhon is my fave example of this. His junior year, he had to become the lead/point guard and take over from jwill. He struggled mightily to lead the team. Then, in his senior season, he was the best floor leader in the country and a steady, guiding hand all the way to the final four. but i think his task was easier because he already saw himself as a point guard.

That brings me to your point about how Nolan views himself. I would love it if K told Smith exactly what you have in this post. Forget about positions and just play. Don't try to be a pure anything and just focus on applying your considerable skills as best you can. He's going to have to get to that place if he is ever to contribute at Duke. Let's all hope he can get there this season.



Can we get easy baskets?
I’m really starting to believe that – especially later in the year – games are decided by how few times you have to work hard for points. For Duke, that means pushing the ball off turnovers and rebounds, running inbounds plays successfully, attacking early to get teams in foul trouble, so a reach-in with eight minutes left sends us to the line. Pay attention to this – it will be really important.

Quin Snyder once said the first thing you have to do in any game plan is figure out a way to get some easy baskets. Too true. I'm not sure what we can do about fouls, with the fear the refs have I don't expect us to get any calls these days. So to get easy baskets, maybe we can do some Princeton-type stuff and get some backdoor cuts. It seems to me that Singler and Smith on the same side of the floor, with Kyle receiving the pass out high from G, who then stays on the weak side and floats to the wing looking for a back screen from a big would give us some real options for cuts to the hoop and dunks/layups.

Aside from that, we have to figure out a way to start getting live ball turnovers again for easy baskets in transition. That's just about improving on -the-ball pressure and getting into passing lanes. I don't know that there is a fix that can give us that, however. Guys just have to step up the D.



Will the offseason changes pay off?
Supposedly, Duke altered its conditioning program to have fresher legs later in the season. We decided to play bigger so Singler wouldn’t get pounded night after night. Supposedly we changed the practice routine as well. So, we’re getting to the point in the season where those changes – hopefully – should be manifested in Duke’s play.


Kyle's performance against BC was a good sign that this is working in our favour. He didn't dominate or anything but he certainly didn't look worn out either. I'm hopeful that these adjustments have been/will be successful.


Thanks for these posts throughout the season.

Truth
02-16-2009, 09:33 PM
I believe it's more that Duke presents a set line-up sooner, while other teams take the chance on giving freshman more on court team, with the view that it's where you finish the season as a team being more important than where you start it. I know there are people who disagree with my viewpoint and say players earn their oncourt time in practice, but why has Duke appeared to peak to early, while other teams surge at the end?


I challenge you to find any empirical support for the statement that Duke presents a line-up any sooner than any other Top 25 team.

You have to keep in mind that the season is very fluid. Teams have ups and down throughout the course of the year. You make it sound like Duke is the only team that is struggling and that other teams will be surging at year end. For every team you can name that is surging, I can name one that is struggling.

BlueintheFace
02-16-2009, 09:35 PM
....we Need a productive big man... Paulus and Nolan are underachieving.... K needs to change recruitment strategy.... the freshmen need more playing time... the trap zone is worthless... should Lance start over Zou?... Paulus over Nolan?.....

Got it all out? GOOD! A new season begins with the home game against Wake Forest. We have a scrimmage against St. Johns and then we have a 5 game season. We play 4 teams with as many or less ACC losses and 3 of the games are away. It's a tough season and a different one from the season we just finished.

The Clemson blowout, the BC letdown.... GONE, IRRELEVANT. This is the attitude that K is now trying to instill in our players and this is the attitude that we fans need to take. We are getting close to March and each game now becomes much more important for NCAA seeding, but most importantly, confidence.

Everybody on this board now knows about this team's potential limitations, so lets not dwell on them for now. You have nothing to say about them that hasn't already been said. Let's dwell on how THIS TEAM overcomes those limitations. There are two teams.

1) The one we wish we were/ might be with time and different personnel, and

2) The one we actually are.

Let's dwell on the team we actually are for the rest of the season and focus on the one we wish we were or hope to be with different personnel AFTER the tournament is over.

NEW SEASON.

darkblue2769
02-16-2009, 09:40 PM
A rousing speech if there ever was one.

I think one of the issues that keep bugging people is that we don't know which team we actually are. I say we are the team that can win, and I am willing to bet right now that we exceed the less-than-lofty expectations people (notably this board) have started to place on our team. We certainly won't know about wins until the games our played, but I think we know which team we are.

WE ARE DUKE

That's good enough for me; I'm on board.

Kedsy
02-16-2009, 09:42 PM
Well said. Let's go Duke.

DukieInKansas
02-16-2009, 09:44 PM
We can win every game we play.

Let's Go Duke!

And that is my expectation every time they take the floor.

fisheyes
02-16-2009, 09:44 PM
Well Said!

We'll be at the Garden on Thursday cheering them on!

New season...Happy New Year!

Go Duke!

BlueintheFace
02-16-2009, 09:47 PM
awww man, a merge. My point was kind of to not look at the struggles we just had (no offense to Jumbo) and to forget about some of the trends because it is a new season. Also to get the point across about supporting THIS team. Shucks.

jv001
02-16-2009, 10:32 PM
Jumbo this is your best in the Phase features and here's my thoughts:
Best to offer....No I don't think so and I certainly hope not. Coach K may have some changes up his sleaves.
Rediscover our idenity...We need to get back to playing in your face defense and that begins with Nolan on the ball.
Nolan Smith your move..like I said, we need Nolan playing good defense and driving the ball. He just needs to play basketball and not think "point guard".
Jon's slump over..I don't think so and we really need him to get back to his play at the beginning of the year. Maybe back to being the best 6th man in the ACC.
ZZZZ. This is one area that puzzles me. When Brian is in he plays ok. He's a defensive presence and the refs had begun to give him a fair break on calls. I still think he is key to us in the long run. Shoot that hook and play defense.
Easy buckets...oh this is a disappointing area. We do not get that many baskets off to's. When Greg is in he walks the ball up the court. I throw lack of shooting free throws into this mix. We are not getting to the line like we normally do in seasons past. Lack of inside play(dump into post and Drives).
Off season work...I would say this is helping and I disagree that players are getting too many mins and this is causing fatigue. The fatigue is mental. The players seem to be putting too much pressure on themselves.

Like I said, good job Jumbo. Go Duke!

gwwilburn
02-16-2009, 11:49 PM
Thank heavens I am not the only one with these thought processes. The 1991 team reference was the best, even though it is 18 years later. UNLV was on a roll, and Duke was just a year removed from being embarrassed by in front of millions by them. The important thing is to realize this is a good team with the potential to go off at any minute. K has been prepared for this letdown for a while. He knows it doesn't matter if you go 16-0 or 11-5 in conference play. March is what counts. Now is the time to prepare for the most glorious month in hoops.
Oh well, maybe I'm just being optimistic. Go Duke.

sagegrouse
02-17-2009, 12:14 AM
Our line-up is for the most part set, with minor adjustments such as Greg for Nolan and Lance for Brian being the only feasible changes. The time for Ewill, Marty and Miles to become major cogs in this team is past and any attempt to get them more time will only disrupt an already shaky team chemistry.

Jumbo talked about other teams now playing as hard as Duke did earlier in the season, but I believe it's more that Duke presents a set line-up sooner, while other teams take the chance on giving freshman more on court team, with the view that it's where you finish the season as a team being more important than where you start it.

Duke has used an 8-man rotation as the minimum rotation, and in most games nine players (or more) have gotten significant burn. I think we are using the bench.

You seem to think that EWill should have been used more often. Would you agree that his court appearances have been unimpressive and, in some cases, disastrous? He is averaging over 10 min. per game in the 22 out of 25 he has played. The stats don't show a lot of positives.

WRT to Miles, who has played just under 8 mins. in the 19 games in which he has appeared, his PT has suffered becasue McClure is getting so much time. Miles has looked good at times (I remember the tomahawk dunk) but he is incurring fouls at a rate of 1 every 5 mins., a higher rate than Zoubs.

I look forward to EWill and MP1 being in the rotation next year, and to seeing the advances made by Mr. Czyz.

sagegrouse

ncexnyc
02-17-2009, 12:59 AM
I challenge you to find any empirical support for the statement that Duke presents a line-up any sooner than any other Top 25 team.

You have to keep in mind that the season is very fluid. Teams have ups and down throughout the course of the year. You make it sound like Duke is the only team that is struggling and that other teams will be surging at year end. For every team you can name that is surging, I can name one that is struggling.

Right off the top of my head I can name three top 25 teams that have indeed made changes that have made their club a lot better. Those would be Pitt, Oklahoma, and Louisville. Duke's line-up has been pretty much set since the start of the season., G, Kyle, Jon, Brian/Lance and Nolan. It's only recently that Greg has replaced Nolan. Brian and Lance have been flip-flopped throughout the season depending on the match-up.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on our hot starts and late season swoons, which many including myself feel has become the norm at Duke.

ncexnyc
02-17-2009, 01:59 AM
Duke has used an 8-man rotation as the minimum rotation, and in most games nine players (or more) have gotten significant burn. I think we are using the bench.

You seem to think that EWill should have been used more often. Would you agree that his court appearances have been unimpressive and, in some cases, disastrous? He is averaging over 10 min. per game in the 22 out of 25 he has played. The stats don't show a lot of positives.

WRT to Miles, who has played just under 8 mins. in the 19 games in which he has appeared, his PT has suffered becasue McClure is getting so much time. Miles has looked good at times (I remember the tomahawk dunk) but he is incurring fouls at a rate of 1 every 5 mins., a higher rate than Zoubs.

I look forward to EWill and MP1 being in the rotation next year, and to seeing the advances made by Mr. Czyz.

sagegrouse
I can see how you feel we are using an eight man rotation, however our Center De Jour, seems to be Coach K starting either Brian or Lance, finding which one seems to have it that game and then the other player sits for the majority of the game. David seems to be the only consistent reserve we have. So while saying 8 is technically correct, it's actually more like a 7 man rotation. I guess you and I use the term rotation differently as I view it as something that should be a fairly constant given as to who plays and the approximate number of minutes they get each game.

Brian's minute total has been really low these past 3 games, not hitting double digits in one of those games.

I think your comment about Duke playing 9 is also very misleading. If you look at the blowout wins and the Clemson game this is accurate, however look at the closely contested games and you get a far different story.

The bench has definitely gotten shorter once the ACC season started. Ewill has logged double digit minutes 3/11 games with 3 DNP. Miles 2/11 with 5 DNP. Are Brian and Lance that much better than Miles? I also realize Ewill is more of a wing, but are we that well off using Greg and Nolan?

In any event, maybe you would share your thought's on why we get off to such hot starts only to fade at the end of the season.

TwoDukeTattoos
02-17-2009, 02:02 AM
...one thing is for sure: In the tourney, Duke won't face any teams tougher than we've already faced. We've faced deep teams, athletic teams, big teams, highly rated teams, etc. And we're still 20-5. Not all that bad, considering. And of the losses, save Clemson, Duke has competed in them all.

Our problems are still obvious: No legit threat down low, and no great (or at least consistently great) guard play. Still, we have a number of different guys who can do a number of things well and can get hot on any given night. With that, we have the potential to beat anyone. The last two years, I couldn't really say with confidence that that potential was there.

Kedsy
02-17-2009, 10:50 AM
I'd love to hear your thoughts on our hot starts and late season swoons, which many including myself feel has become the norm at Duke.

Here are some past Duke teams. "Streak" and "Last 7" both mean going into (but not including) the NCAA Tournament.

Year---"Streak"---Last 7
------------------------
2008........1-2........5-2
2007........0-3........4-3
2006........3-2........5-2

2004........3-2........5-2
1994........1-2........5-2
1991........4-3........4-3
1990........2-4........3-4
1989........3-3........4-3 (also lost 4 out of 5 in late Jan/early Feb)
1988........4-3........4-3 (lost 3 in a row in late Feb/early Mar)


So, as you can probably see, losing a few games near the end of the season has been the "norm" at Duke for quite awhile. The only difference between the last three seasons and the other six in this chart is the others all went to the Final Four.

And I would argue that while nobody likes losing in the NCAAs, doing so hardly qualifies as a "swoon."

mr. synellinden
02-17-2009, 11:55 AM
Can we get easy baskets?
I’m really starting to believe that – especially later in the year – games are decided by how few times you have to work hard for points. For Duke, that means pushing the ball off turnovers and rebounds, running inbounds plays successfully, attacking early to get teams in foul trouble, so a reach-in with eight minutes left sends us to the line. Pay attention to this – it will be really important.



This to me is the key and always will be the key in college basketball. Due to the best talent leaving early for the NBA, college basketball has much more parity than it did prior to the NBA defection wave which started I'd say about 12 to 15 years ago. Even with the one year rule in place, the talent level is much more evenly spread across the country.

Therefore, what tends to decide close games -- and as you get further into the season, teams mesh, the cream rises to the top, etc., and conference and NCAA tournament games are usually close -- is the ability to get easy points. How do you get easy points? A few ways:

1. Offensive rebounds which lead to putbacks or FT's (see #2);
2. Free Throws -- this is why having a guard or guards who can penetrate, draw defenders and put the defense in a need to foul positions is so critical (as is hitting your free throws of course;
3. Layups or easy shots which are most frequently created by players who can beat defenders off the dribble and get to the rim, or (see #2), a guard who can break down the defense and pass to open players for easy shots (dunks and layups) -- the UNC and BC games are good examples of how this is such an advantage. It is especially true in the second half when teams are likely to get more tired, which has a direct impact on jump shooting;
4. Creating turnovers that lead to easy baskets.

I've posted this before, but for the past several seasons (and this includes the JJ/Shelden years) we have been weak in most of these areas. A lot of it comes from being dependent upon guards that don't have the ability to create 2, 3 and 4. We have have great three point shooters, but not dreat drive, draw, dish or finish guards. Probably the best two guards we've ever had in that regard were Hurley and Jason Williams, and it's no coincedence that we won our national championships with those guards. An example is the final eight - USC game in 2001. Duke had superior talent for sure (in fact, that 2001 team was one of the most talented NCAA teams in history), but we would have been in trouble in that game if Williams didn't take over the game in the second half by consistently getting to the basket.

This year's team is much better at 1. Offensive Rebounds and 4. Creating turnovers that lead to easy baskets. But we are still struggling terribly with #s 2 and 3. In my opinion, unless Nolan Smith can demonstrate the ability to be a break-down the defense guard, this season is likely to mirror the past few. We may get farther in the tournament due to 1 and 4, but 2 and 3 will hold us back IMO.

ncexnyc
02-17-2009, 01:12 PM
Here are some past Duke teams. "Streak" and "Last 7" both mean going into (but not including) the NCAA Tournament.

Year---"Streak"---Last 7
------------------------
2008........1-2........5-2
2007........0-3........4-3
2006........3-2........5-2

2004........3-2........5-2
1994........1-2........5-2
1991........4-3........4-3
1990........2-4........3-4
1989........3-3........4-3 (also lost 4 out of 5 in late Jan/early Feb)
1988........4-3........4-3 (lost 3 in a row in late Feb/early Mar)


So, as you can probably see, losing a few games near the end of the season has been the "norm" at Duke for quite awhile. The only difference between the last three seasons and the other six in this chart is the others all went to the Final Four.

And I would argue that while nobody likes losing in the NCAAs, doing so hardly qualifies as a "swoon."

Nice of you to focus on my choice of the word "swoon", however you failed to address the topic. We're discussing why do we falter in February-March, after such great starts.

Season Record at 30 Jan Feb-March Tournaments
04-05 16-1 6-4 5-1
05-06 19-1 8-2* 5-1
06-07 18-3 4-6 0-2
07-08 18-1 8-3 2-2
08-09 18-2 2-3 TBD
*Note the 2 loses for the Feb-March column were the final 2 games of the season.

I'd love for this team to prove me wrong, but looking at our remaining schedule a repeat of 06-07 appears likely to happen.

I honestly felt that as a team we would be better than last year, even with the loss of Nelson. Unfortunately our centers haven't progressed as I had hoped and Nolan hasn't been able to fill Demarcus' shoes.

There is still a lot of basketball left to be played and hopefully Coach K can maximize Brian and Lances abilities and put them in situations where they can suceed. I also hope that Nolan can find his game, as we need him to pressure opposing PG's the length of the court as that is what made our defense so good the first part of the season.

jgehtland
02-17-2009, 01:47 PM
The reason our team has more losses at the end of the year than at the beginning is because we play a bunch of guarantee games at the beginning of the year. Everybody does. Everybody but the most elite teams have more losses at the end of the year than at the beginning, and even then, the graph usually trends upward.

The issue you are identifying is not that Duke has lately gotten bad in Feb., but that, for about 5 years, we did something nobody else has ever done. Over a three year period, we went 15-1, 16-0, 15-1 in the ACC, won the tournament 6 straight times, and pretty well dominated the league like nobody has ever done before or will likely ever do again.

What you are seeing now is called "regression to the mean". Nobody can keep up that torrid pace forever, and the mean, in this case, means that you pile up losses in the heart of the conference season.

As the previous poster pointed out, the difference between what you have seen the last three years and what you saw before our dominant run was that we got on a hot streak in the NCAAs and made the Final Four. The last two years, we did not make it out of the first weekend.

I would argue that, as long as the *team* remains confident, they are just as likely to make a deep run as most of those teams from 88-94, and maybe more so, since the competition is all having the same problems we are. Outside the top four teams, everybody has a flaw and most games will come down to who wants it more. I guarantee you that, come the tournament, our guys will not be beat on that particular measure. Doesn't mean we won't lose, but that won't be why.

Kedsy
02-17-2009, 02:11 PM
Nice of you to focus on my choice of the word "swoon", however you failed to address the topic. We're discussing why do we falter in February-March, after such great starts.

Season Record at 30 Jan Feb-March Tournaments
04-05 16-1 6-4 5-1
05-06 19-1 8-2* 5-1
06-07 18-3 4-6 0-2
07-08 18-1 8-3 2-2
08-09 18-2 2-3 TBD
*Note the 2 loses for the Feb-March column were the final 2 games of the season.


Actually, I was focusing on your misconception that this is in any way a new phenomenon.

Forgetting for the moment the tournaments, which are by-and-large a crapshoot and IMO are not so much falterning as they are losing a game, here's the chart (I'm trusting your numbers for the recent years):

Year.......Jan 30.......Feb/Mar
2008........18-1.........8-3
2007........18-3.........4-6
2006........19-1.........8-2
2005........16-1.........6-4

2004........18-1.........7-3
1994........15-1.........7-3
1991........17-4.........7-2
1990........17-3.........6-4*
1989........14-3.........8-4**
1988........13-2.........8-4***

*The 1990 team lost four of its last six going into the NCAAT, then went on to the NCAA championship game.

**On 1/17/89, Duke was 13-0, after which they promptly lost four out of five, finishing their regular season 9-7. They ended up going to the Final Four.

***In 1988 we lost three of our last four regular season games before winning the ACC tourney and going to the Final Four.

The numbers look pretty much the same to me, although I'll grant you the 2007 team fared worse than the others.

My point is your perception that recently we have "faltered" at the end of the season is based purely on the fact that recently we have lost earlier in the NCAAT. We always fare worse in February and March (pre-tourney) than we do before that, and we always have. We have more difficult games later in the season.

You remember the 1988, 1989, 1990, 1994, and 2004 teams (and maybe 1991 as well) differently from 2005, 2006, and 2008 solely because the former teams had NCAAT success and the latter teams didn't. It has nothing to do with faltering in February.

77devil
02-17-2009, 02:18 PM
Here are some past Duke teams. "Streak" and "Last 7" both mean going into (but not including) the NCAA Tournament.

Year---"Streak"---Last 7
------------------------
2008........1-2........5-2
2007........0-3........4-3
2006........3-2........5-2

2004........3-2........5-2
1994........1-2........5-2
1991........4-3........4-3
1990........2-4........3-4
1989........3-3........4-3 (also lost 4 out of 5 in late Jan/early Feb)
1988........4-3........4-3 (lost 3 in a row in late Feb/early Mar)


So, as you can probably see, losing a few games near the end of the season has been the "norm" at Duke for quite awhile. The only difference between the last three seasons and the other six in this chart is the others all went to the Final Four.

And I would argue that while nobody likes losing in the NCAAs, doing so hardly qualifies as a "swoon."

I'm not interested in the swoon debate but I will make a few observations. Last year the team was 10-1 as opposed to 7-4 at this stage after starting 10-0 in conference play. After dropping 2 in a row, it finished the ACC regular season 3-1 with an easier ending schedule.

The six final four teams you list for comparison had superior talent levels relative to the competition, arguably significantly more, with the possible of exception of 1994. That team, of course, had the unique talent of Grant Hill as a senior, which no one on this team comes close to approaching. The other 5 teams had the talent levels to compete at a championship level in March notwithstanding whatever ebbs they experienced during the regular season. The obvious point is that the attempted analogy to the 6 final four teams using a single data reference is fallacious.

ncexnyc
02-17-2009, 02:33 PM
I guess it boils down to one's perspective on the numbers and how each of us views the actual on court play.

The remainder of our schedule will be telling, but I'm not saying anything that most of us don't already know.

I'll be more than happy to eat crow if this team proves me wrong, just as long as someone is willing to share their bottle of Texas Pete with me.:D

Kedsy
02-17-2009, 02:36 PM
The obvious point is that the attempted analogy to the 6 final four teams using a single data reference is fallacious.

Personally, I think the "obvious" point is your memory is deceiving you. The 1988, 1989, 1990, and 1994 teams did not have superior talent (compared to their competition or in any other way) to this year's team, and their records bear that out. The 1988 team had 7 losses; 1989 had 8; 1990 had 9; and 1994 had 6. Even the 1991 team had 7 losses. This year's team may end up with 9 or 10, but it's in the ballpark.

The 1988 team started Billy King, Quin Snyder, Robert Brickey, Kevin Strickland and Danny Ferry. The 1989 team lost King and Strickland and added Phil Henderson and Alaa Abdelnaby (before he broke out) as starters.

You might be able to argue those lineups are comparable to the current Duke team, but I don't think you can credibly say those teams were superior, and certainly not "significantly" superior. Especially since the general consensus seems to be the overall NCAA talent level was higher then than it is now, which would favor the current team in a comparison.

77devil
02-17-2009, 04:43 PM
Personally, I think the "obvious" point is your memory is deceiving you. The 1988, 1989, 1990, and 1994 teams did not have superior talent (compared to their competition or in any other way) to this year's team, and their records bear that out. The 1988 team had 7 losses; 1989 had 8; 1990 had 9; and 1994 had 6. Even the 1991 team had 7 losses. This year's team may end up with 9 or 10, but it's in the ballpark.

The 1988 team started Billy King, Quin Snyder, Robert Brickey, Kevin Strickland and Danny Ferry. The 1989 team lost King and Strickland and added Phil Henderson and Alaa Abdelnaby (before he broke out) as starters.

You might be able to argue those lineups are comparable to the current Duke team, but I don't think you can credibly say those teams were superior, and certainly not "significantly" superior. Especially since the general consensus seems to be the overall NCAA talent level was higher then than it is now, which would favor the current team in a comparison.

With regards to the 1988 team: Which player on the current team is or do you project will/can be a two time 1st team all american and NPOY? Which player on the current team is or do you believe will/can be the NABC national defensive player of the year? Which guard on the current team averages nearly 6 assists per game with a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio? Hmm.

Ala Abdelnaby was a very efficient big man averaging more than a point for every 2 minutes on the floor in 1989 and was superior to any of 5s on this team contributing 9 points and 15 mpg. While not as versitile as G, Phil Henderson's stat line as a junior is about the same as G's to date this year. He made the all NCAA east regional team in 1989 and 1990, all NCAA tournament team in 1990 and was the 1990 team MVP. Oh, and the 1989 team had a freshman named Christian Laettner. He turned out to be pretty decent.

I could keep going, but I think it's clear where any additional comparison is headed. Furthermore, I wrote arguably not certainly significanltly superior, and qualified the 1994 team all of which you chose to ignore or distort in your response, which incidently was devoid of any supporting data. Your position seems to be that the NCAA tournament success of the 1988-1990 teams, maybe the others, was more luck than talent.

Nothing would please me more than a deep run in March, but don't try to argue, based on the flawed use of data in your original post, that the prospect for the team doing so this year compares favorably with the 6 final four teams you cited. And if you want debate the comparative talent levels, bring appropriate data instead of an unsubstantited response.

Saratoga2
02-17-2009, 06:06 PM
We have a really terrific player on both sides of the ball in Singler, Henderson is also excellent and Scheyer is very good and even terrific when shooting well. His problem is a lack of consistency shooting the three. We seemed to get burned when he shoots and misses from the corner and all we have back is Paulus to stop the break.

What we need is better play from the point and center positions.

Smith has the better overall ability, both on defense and penetration if he can use it properly, and he is an excellent foul shooter. Paulus has his good points but I see his play as situational. The suggestion of Scheyer at the point with support from E-Will is intriguing to me. Better decision making from the point, another lanky, athletic and quick defender and more of Scheyers threes coming from directly on the basket.

Seeing LT improve during the last two games is encourging. He still seems to make defensive mistakes and has trouble boxing out. Zoubek has not instilled confidence lately and McClure plays well but has very little offensive ability and is very small for the post. I don't get the rap on Plumley. He has some offensive ability and has the size to compete inside. Why not give him minutes?

So I would start Singler, Henderson and Scheyer with Smith and Thomas. For front court subs I would use MCClure, Plumlee and Zoubek and give them each chances to show what they can do in each game.

For subs at point I would use Paulus when matchups are right and Scheyer when facing athletic gaurds with E-Will or Smith in for defensive purposes when Scheyer takes the point.

Clearly we need to explore ways to be competitive against the better teams.

Kedsy
02-17-2009, 09:51 PM
Nothing would please me more than a deep run in March, but don't try to argue, based on the flawed use of data in your original post, that the prospect for the team doing so this year compares favorably with the 6 final four teams you cited.

If you'd read my original post, you'd realize I wasn't arguing anything of the sort. Another poster was lamenting what he called the recent trend of us starting hot and then losing (regular season) games in February and March. The data I used was intended to display that the "trend" of Duke starting hot and losing (regular season) games in February and March is not recent at all but has been going on since at least 1988. I demonstrated that 6 different Duke Final Four teams had very similar regular season resumes to the past few Duke teams, and stated that the only reason he doesn't remember those late season losses was because those teams happened to go to the Final Four.

My point was and is that someone stating this Duke team is doomed to NCAAT futility because its regular season performance seems similar to the last few years is illogical, because half a dozen Duke Final Four teams had very similar regular seasons. So why do you think my data is flawed?

RepoMan
03-10-2009, 05:55 PM
Have we already seen the best Duke has to offer?
. . . Maybe. But maybe Duke has another level to reach, too. Maybe the inconsistency of the last month has to do with the fact that this team is still growing, still maturing, still mastering concepts. Unlike last year at this time, I can envision a Duke team with the same personnel playing at a much higher level. Such a game would involve a mix of the defensive intensity we saw earlier with the offensive efficiency we saw, say, in the first half against Carolina. It would include consistent scoring performances from Singler, Scheyer and Henderson (both inside and out), some easy baskets in the open court from Smith, a couple of plays inside from Zoubek to open things up, a couple of big jumpers from Paulus. We’ve seen all of these things at various points during the season. Can Duke put them together at one time?

Can Duke rediscover its identity?
. . . Really simply, can Duke regain that level of team defense against better opponents? Or did we look better on D earlier in the season because we were just playing harder than other teams?

Can this team forget about Carolina, and just worry about itself? And can it maintain a healthy ego in the process?
. . . Simply, they need to believe in themselves as strongly as ever before.

Your move, Nolan Smith. What will it be?
So Greg Paulus took the starting job back. Is Nolan going down without a fight? For Duke’s sake, he can’t. . . .He knows he needs to attack. If he does that, he could have his job back pretty soon.

Is The Slump over?
We know how poorly Jon Scheyer shot over the last few weeks. . . .

Was there a glimmer of long-term hope that emerged in the last two games, even though they were tough?
. . . If we’ve added a more versatile, motion-based approach, we’ll be tougher to guard.

Zzzzzzzzzz?
Is Brian Zoubek ready to hibernate? Has he lost confidence and the ability to play against guys his own size? Will Duke stop looking to run some stuff through him? Or, can he challenge himself to play better? . . .

Can we get easy baskets?
I’m really starting to believe that – especially later in the year – games are decided by how few times you have to work hard for points. . . .

Will the offseason changes pay off?
Supposedly, Duke altered its conditioning program to have fresher legs later in the season. . . .

You’ll notice there are plenty of issues some people have lamented that I haven’t identified. For instance, I never mentioned Elliot Williams or Miles Plumlee . . .


Lot's of good stuff here from the prescient Jumbo, but it seems noone could have expected the emergence of Williams.

Following Jumbo's lead:

1. We definitely had not seen the best Duke had to offer. We are playing some of our best basketball of the season, and we still have room to grow (see esp. Nolan Smith)

2. I'd say that Duke has recast its identity from one of defensive dominance to one of multi-faceted interchangeable parts. We have more balance.

3. Ego seems in check

4. While inury prevented Nolan from answering this question, E. Williams answered for him. Now, if we can integrate Nolan into what we have developed, we will have a solid top 6, with multiple role players available situationally.

5. Slump over.

6. Yes, the glimmer is now a spark

7. I think that Z will be used situationally only henceforth. He may have a big game here or there, and I think he is important to the team, but I don't forsee any sort of a breakout.

8. Haven't seen many easy buckets.

9. Conditioning looks solid, but the ACC tourney will tell alot.

Jumbo, looking forward to the recap and Phase V

BlueintheFace
03-10-2009, 06:06 PM
9. Conditioning looks solid, but the ACC tourney will tell alot.

Potentially 5 games in 9 days coming up... starters are playing A LOT of minutes. This has all the makings of a perfect circumstance to settle the "Conditioning Theory" disputes on this board.

Newton_14
03-10-2009, 08:30 PM
I like this team. Alot. The changes have reaped benefits and we now have 6 games in which to review the data.

They went 5 and 1 against a brutal schedule.

Eliot introduced himself loudly and brought new energy on both sides of the ball. If Nolan can get healthy and return to form, it will almost be like getting a 2nd new player late in the season and will make the "new" team even stronger, again on both sides of the ball. "Small ball" would suddenly mean a line up of Jon, Nolan, Eliot, Gerald, and Kyle. That is alot of speed and athleticism with shooters and slashers. For small stretches in games that line up could be really effective.

If Lance gets back to health and plays like he did in the 6 game stretch, he maintains the 5 with Zoubs, Dave, and Kyle as options there.

Dave can also provide back up at the 3 and 4. And Greg can provide a shooter off the bench and back up the point and the wings.

Health is now the key in my view. If they call can get healthy, there are lots of pieces to the puzzle and K has several options to deploy offensively and defensively. But a healthy Nolan is needed to make the puzzle complete.

If healthy I really believe this "new" team can make runs in both upcoming tourney's without over reliance on the 3 Ball.

Saratoga2
03-10-2009, 08:59 PM
I like this team. Alot. The changes have reaped benefits and we now have 6 games in which to review the data.

They went 5 and 1 against a brutal schedule.

Eliot introduced himself loudly and brought new energy on both sides of the ball. If Nolan can get healthy and return to form, it will almost be like getting a 2nd new player late in the season and will make the "new" team even stronger, again on both sides of the ball. "Small ball" would suddenly mean a line up of Jon, Nolan, Eliot, Gerald, and Kyle. That is alot of speed and athleticism with shooters and slashers. For small stretches in games that line up could be really effective.

If Lance gets back to health and plays like he did in the 6 game stretch, he maintains the 5 with Zoubs, Dave, and Kyle as options there.

Dave can also provide back up at the 3 and 4. And Greg can provide a shooter off the bench and back up the point and the wings.

Health is now the key in my view. If they call can get healthy, there are lots of pieces to the puzzle and K has several options to deploy offensively and defensively. But a healthy Nolan is needed to make the puzzle complete.

If healthy I really believe this "new" team can make runs in both upcoming tourney's without over reliance on the 3 Ball.

The team has cut down on turnovers but we have given up a high shooting % during the last 6 games. If you look down the list:

SJU 54%
WF 61%
UM 48%
VT 41.1%
FSU 50%
UNC 52.8%

Inside presence would help, but it unlikely to materialize late in the season. We have to win the turnover battle and shoot well to win against the better teams.

tendev
03-10-2009, 09:48 PM
To Jumbo's point about our getting easy baskets, my question is whether we can stop other teams from getting easy baskets. When we can stop them it takes the pressure off our shooting. The more times we go down the court without facing the pressure to score, the bigger the basket gets.

Jumbo
03-10-2009, 10:55 PM
I'll try to keep this recap short and sweet and then get Phase IV posted tomorrow or Thursday.

"Have we already seen the best Duke has to offer?"
No, I don't think we have. I think that's one of the many ways in which some of Duke's own fans are selling this team short. Duke is still improving, especially given the lineup change. If we can get Nolan back, if Lance, Scheyer and Zoubek can get healthy, if we can keep working, we can play even better. Of that, I am quite confident.

"Can Duke rediscover its identity?"
I don't think Duke will ever look as good as it did defensively through the first 20 games or so. Getting stops has become a problem. So I'm not sure it will regain it's "identity" as stone-cold, lock-down defensive team. But hopefully the guys can offset whatever has been lost in that end in other areas.

"Can this team forget about Carolina, and just worry about itself? And can it maintain a healthy ego in the process?"
Yes! And it's funny that I don't even feel the need to ask this again after the latest Carolina loss. It took a little longer for the team to turn things around (the B.C. loss was tough and the St. John's win wasn't pretty), but that four-game winning streak and a tough performance in Chapel Hill showed the guys' fortitude.

"Your move, Nolan Smith. What will it be?"
Well, this wasn't what I meant when I asked the question, but obviously Nolan just has to get healthy. We didn't really see enough of him during this phase to get a clear sense of what he'll offer. I do know that he needs to foul less often.

"Is The Slump over?"
It sure looks like it. Scheyer still wasn't shooting a high percentage before his performance against UNC on Sunday, but his scoring was back up. Here are his numbers during the last phase:
17.9 ppg; 3.7 rpg; 2.7 apg; 1.9 spg; 1.0 tpg; .427 FG%; .383 3FG%; .796 FT%.
Those are obviously really impressive. In fact, if you add the Miami and Carolina games, he's averaging 18.6 ppg over his last nine. And yet he didn't even get Honorable Mention for All-ACC. Ridiculous.
The move to the point has been revelation, and even if he's not shooting consistently well from game to game, he's finding ways to score and has clearly rebounded from that terrible slump he endured earlier.

"Was there a glimmer of long-term hope that emerged in the last two games, even though they were tough?"
This was about offensive improvements, and yes, I think the offense does look better than earlier in the season. It's just not for all the reasons I noticed against Miami and UNC. Obviously the Scheyer switch and the slashing ability of Elliot Williams have helped. But I also think there has been (mostly) a better flow on offense and better passing overall.

"Zzzzzzzzzz?"
Sadly, I think he's pretty much relegated to a backup role at this point. I'm not sure what changed, and I still hope he can contribute given the right matchup, but it's pretty clear that he's just not going to have the same role he did earlier in the season.

"Can we get easy baskets?"
I think we can. It still takes a commitment to running, and I'm not sure we had that. But the way Elliot sneaks in for an offensive rebound or cuts for a dunk helps, and if we can just run enough off live-ball turnovers, it'll make a real defense.

"Will the offseason changes pay off?"
I think so. Aside from the recent fluke injuries, the team looks strong and fit. Recall that at this time last year, Singler was standing around the perimeter, launching threes, never attacking. The past few games he has consistently taken the ball strong the hoop. I've discussed Scheyer. Henderson, who has always needed a little more rest than the other two guys, appears to be in good condition. Elliot is handling a huge jump in minutes quite well. None of the other guys looks tired.

Wow, and I can't believe I looked at Elliot Williams as a "luxury" behind the "real" issues a month ago. My, how things have changed!

jv001
03-11-2009, 10:57 AM
Man Jumbo was pretty much right on with this Phase.
1. Best to offer..Not on your life. As I posted earlier on this subject, Coach K would probably have something up his sleave and he did. Welcome Mr. Williams to the starting lineup. He's given us some energy.
2. Rediscover our idenity.. #1 actually helps answer this one. We have a pretty good on the ball defender in Elliot. We are still giving up a high % of shots but that comes for easy baskets around the rim.
3. ZZZZZZubek..Partly because of his style of play, his lack of mobility and Coach K's decision to go smaller Brian has not been much of a factor.
4. Easy buckets..We have gotten more of these since Elliot's insertion into the starting lineup. Let's hope this continues.
5. Off season Conditioning..Seems to be working for the The Big Three of Jon, Kyle and Gerald. Thye say so and I believe them.

Can't wait for Phase V Jumbo. Great work and thanks. Go Duke!