What Is The Realistic Expectations For This Year's and Next Year's Team

[NYC Duke Fan]

There are those of us who were spoiled by the past Duke success in winning 3 National Championships and anything less than a Final Four appearance was considered an unsuccessful season. I admit that I was one of those.Each year I envisioned that Duke was capable of winning the National Championship.

That has changed in the last few years.

What is the realistic hope for this year's team ? Obviously, we are not a national championship caliber team. If we made it into the Elite 8, would it be a successful season...I think so. What about into the Sweet 16..probably so.

What about next year's team assuming that John Wall will not matriculate at Duke ? Do you think that it is capable of winning a National Championship ? Obviously it all depends on what happens to Singler and Henderson. If they both leave then the answer is obviously NO. What if they both stay? What would be your realistic expectations for next year?

Would Kelly and Plumlee make up for the deficiencies that we see this year ? I cannot answer that question because I have never seen either play.Is Nolan Smith the PG who could lead the team to high expectations...from what I have seen this year..not so sure, although players do get better as they mature. ?

Had Kenny Boynton decided to come to Duke would that have made Duke a National Contender ....possibly but it is only speculation ?

[BoozerWasFouled]

My expectation for this year's team is round of eight before losing to a tough Big East team. Next year's team is without question a title team if Henderson and Singler return and everyone stays healthy.

[Native]

Please, God...just not another VCU or West Virginia. Please.

If we make it to the Sweet 16, I will consider this a successful season.

[Johnboy]

It's all about matchups and getting on a hot streak in the NCAAs. Two eight seeds - Wisconsin and UNC - made it to the Final Four in 2000, and #11 seeded George Mason made the FF in 2006.

Teams can get on a roll. Don't lose hope.

[hurleyfor3]

Please, God...just not another VCU or West Virginia. Please.


or florida or lsu or michigan state or indiana or kansas with nick collison going off or kentucky coming back from 17 down or ok i'll shut up

[Kedsy]

Obviously, we are not a national championship caliber team.

* * *

Obviously it all depends on what happens to Singler and Henderson. If they both leave then the answer is obviously NO.

I don't think anything is obvious in this regard. At the time, was the 1991 Duke team considered to be a "national championship caliber team"? They'd been to the NCAA finals the year before but they got beat by 30. They had 7 losses and before the NCAAs were only 7-5 against ranked teams (1-2 against out-of-conference ranked teams). They got clobbered in the ACC tournament.

It sounds like it was before your time, but NC State in 1983 and Villanova in 1985 were not considered to be national championship contenders, nor was Arizona in 1997. This year's Duke team is as good as any of those teams.

Personally, I think you should keep your internal expectations low enough so that you'll be disappointed but not devastated if/when they lose. At the same time, you shouldn't be overly critical of your team or give off negative vibes. Beyond that, I see no value in laying on the pressure of high expectations or of placing the restrictions of low ones. Let the team shoot for the stars and then be happy wherever it takes them.

[kinghoops]

i hate to say this, but i think we will be pretty lucky to get out of the first weekend of the tournament. just like the two previous years, there has been no improvement from december to february, and i dare to say that there has been a bit of regression. i dont understand why there has been no improvement in team play, and the way i see it only one player has improved during the course of the season, that being g.

[hurleyfor3]

I don't think anything is obvious in this regard. At the time, was the 1991 Duke team considered to be a "national championship caliber team"? They'd been to the NCAA finals the year before but they got beat by 30. They had 7 losses and before the NCAAs were only 7-5 against ranked teams (1-2 against out-of-conference ranked teams). They got clobbered in the ACC tournament.


Couple things about the 1991 team: First, it took care of business during the ACC regular season -- the meat of the schedule. This is especially true if you throw out the season-opening "rude awakening game" at Virginia. And our out-of-conference schedule that year was brutal.

Secondly, I don't recall a "bad stretch" in 1991 that was populated with a series of losses and tough wins (a la Miami) akin to what this team is going through now. Again, the 1991 team took time growing into its skin, but it was pretty darned consistent.

In any event, in 1991 there wasn't the usual conversation of "which handful of teams can win it". It was more like "i wonder if arkansas can beat unlv, because it's not like anyone else has a shot".

[RelativeWays]

I hope for a couple of things.

1. If we do not get John Wall, hopefully we have another backup PG to recruit, a TRUE PG. I think Nolan will be better served if he isn't saddled with primary ball handling duty, same with EW. If G leaves, we're going to need their athleticism big time.

2. I hope that neither Miles or EW are discouraged with the their current contributions to this team. I really think both have the chance to contribute big next year, they have the talent, just need the development. I hope they do not look elsewhere.

3. Duke has had a strong trend of seniors stepping up their play big time for their last go around. I'm hoping LT, Zoubs and Marty follow suit, whether its points, rebounds, effort, anything. If not, I'd rather they just stay out of the way. I think they'll do the former.

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

To get the obligatory out of the way:

The NCAA is one-and-done. Any team can get hot blah blah Cardiac Pack blah K is a genius blah.

That said, in terms of reasonable (better than 50%) chances, I'd peg this team as Sweet 16, subject to our seeding. Assuming we end up as a top 4 seed but not a #1 our first game will be a tune up. Given recent years I think we will bring everything we have to make sure we make it past the first weekend.

Once we're in the SS, however, we're almost certain to see a team with at least one of a) a creating/break-down PG or b) a formidable post presence. We may get a good matchup or just be really hot from outside, but we can't reliably handle top-20 teams with either or both of these on a neutral (i.e. hostile) court. If either Nolan can find a groove or our post guys put things together we're more like an EE team with an outside shot at the FF.

Next year's team is still very much up in the air. With Wall we're a title contender. Without him we still have all of the issues that this team does (Kelly and MP2 will be good wings, but neither has the body or game to be a real post presence). There's also the issue of who leaves. We know we're losing Greg and Dave (which will be a major loss) and I've got to think that at least one of G and Kyle will shine in the NCAAs and then jump to the NBA. I'm assuming Marty will go back to Europe as well.

As such, we have this team minus PG depth and plus frosh that don't address any needs (and may not play much anyway). As such, we're going to have to hope that guys develop. Ideally the light will go on for MP1 and Nolan will grow into his role as a PG. If so, I think we're a clear FF team. Working backward, if only one grows up we're EE, if none, another SS season.

[Kewlswim]

i hate to say this, but i think we will be pretty lucky to get out of the first weekend of the tournament. just like the two previous years, there has been no improvement from december to february, and i dare to say that there has been a bit of regression. i dont understand why there has been no improvement in team play, and the way i see it only one player has improved during the course of the season, that being g.

Hi,

I know I have been a bit flippant in some of my posts recently, but I am serious about this one.

You don't think that Lance is starting to play much better and be more assertive? You don't feel that Greg is starting to add more than he has in quite a while? You don't think Kyle might have been a little tired for a couple of games and is now playing really well? You don't feel that Coach K is using his bench more than in recent years and giving lots of players a chance to contribute? You don't feel that Coach K is looking more and more "into it" as the season progresses?

Are you accounting for the level of competition? We haven't lost to bad teams that are unranked in this recent skid. However, we did lose to Michigan and then the ship was righted.

I feel people are being harsh, way too harsh, on this team. I think one must take into account the level of the competition and where games are played. The Devils were one play from winning at Wake. I feel that at Clemson the whole thing could have gone south, but it didn't! The ship was righted against Miami. Do you really feel that the team played poorly last night? Do you not give any credit to the Tar Heels playing well? Is every Duke loss because Duke is playing badly?

Let's see what happens on the road on Sunday. I think that is more of a litmus test than losing to a team that was supposed to go undefeated and their point guard plays like an NBA lottery pick. I don't think many if any teams would have been able to withstand the Tar Heels defensive pressure and offensive prowess demonstrated last night. Who knows maybe the Heels peaked last night and the Devils are just starting their ascent?

GO DUKE!

[kinghoops]

Hi,

I know I have been a bit flippant in some of my posts recently, but I am serious about this one.

You don't think that Lance is starting to play much better and be more assertive? You don't feel that Greg is starting to add more than he has in quite a while? You don't think Kyle might have been a little tired for a couple of games and is now playing really well? You don't feel that Coach K is using his bench more than in recent years and giving lots of players a chance to contribute? You don't feel that Coach K is looking more and more "into it" as the season progresses?

Are you accounting for the level of competition? We haven't lost to bad teams that are unranked in this recent skid. However, we did lose to Michigan and then the ship was righted.

I feel people are being harsh, way too harsh, on this team. I think one must take into account the level of the competition and where games are played. The Devils were one play from winning at Wake. I feel that at Clemson the whole thing could have gone south, but it didn't! The ship was righted against Miami. Do you really feel that the team played poorly last night? Do you not give any credit to the Tar Heels playing well? Is every Duke loss because Duke is playing badly?

Let's see what happens on the road on Sunday. I think that is more of a litmus test than losing to a team that was supposed to go undefeated and their point guard plays like an NBA lottery pick. I don't think many if any teams would have been able to withstand the Tar Heels defensive pressure and offensive prowess demonstrated last night. Who knows maybe the Heels peaked last night and the Devils are just starting their ascent?

GO DUKE!

just my opinion on a couple of points that you stated. first of all, yes i think duke played poorly in the second half, thats not saying they didnt play hard, but i cant recall that many layups given up in a half. do i give credit to unc playing well? yes, but i think them playing well was dictated by duke playing poor defense. several of the turnovers in the second half were just plain unforced errors that led to fast break points.

do you really think lance has improved??? if you think so, you are seeing something different than i am. greg playing better is true, but it is offset by the terrible play of nolan smith. i understand that he is not a true point guard, but if i recall correctly, his last three 3pt attempts have been 2 from straight on that didnt hit the rim, they were so off they hit the backboard and the third was a wide open shot from the corner that he overshot by three feet.

and as far as k using his bench?? i think ole roy outcoached him on bench play, therefore unc was much fresher the last 10 mins of the game

[cbfx3]

I'd say we are slightly better than last year. We couldnt stop Ty Law.. He wouldnt have tossed that stuff in over the Landlord. More muscle. Its what we need

[Kewlswim]

Hi,

Kinghoops, I've enjoyed reading your posts and your responses to mine. I feel we are both on the same side. You are just looking at things a bit differently than I, that's great. As Coach Wooden once said, "If everyone is thinking the same, then nobody is really thinking." I feel that Nolan Smith has shown flashes of brilliance. I agree he was steadier earlier in the season, but once one gets into conference play the pressure is different. We can go back and forth on one player or another or on the general level of play.

I would prefer to have a team with upside on the 12th of February than a team that can no longer get better because it has none. The players, and that includes G and Kyle, still have upside. I don't think they have peaked this season. Might I be wrong? Sure, let's see what transpires.

GO DUKE!

[_Gary]

A lot of good points here. As for me, I'm not going to lower my expectations (which I feel a lot of people here are doing) too much. There's no doubt that, at this point, we can't realistically expect a Final Four. Could happen, but I'd never expect it. But at the same time I just can't say that a Sweet 16 loss is good enough. For me to consider this a successful season I say we need to get to the Elite Eight. Anything beyond that is gravy.

Realistically I think we should make it to the second weekend of the tourney. What we do in that first game of the 2nd round will be the key. If we can at least win the first game in that second weekend then this will be a successful season in my eyes. Less than that... an "average" season by Duke standards, but not a truly successful one. Just my two cents.

[sagegrouse]

This is a very good Duke team.

1. It plays strong defense.
2. It even rebounds -- (This is a get-me-the-smelling-salts episode!)
3. It has three scoring weapons -- Singler, G., and Scheyer.
4. Singler, who is a bit of a prodigy, and Nolan are the only underclassmen we rely on.
5. The team is totally healthy -- knock on wood.

Because of the stifling defense and the gutty rebounding, I like our chances against any team not intimately familiar with our play. I think we have a good chance of making the FF.

Our scrappiness and center-by-committee will serve us OK in the NCAAT. We need defense, rebounds, and passing (outlet variety) from the bigs, and a few putbacks every game. I think we will get that.

I am not worried about PG, now that Greg has shown he can be productive, and I predict Nolan will come back to his earlier form. Now if Ty Lawson goes off on us again, we will have trouble (as will anyone else). Yesterday was his best game ever, IMHO. Anyway, we won't face UNC until the FF. And Lawson has been up-and-down all year, so I'll take my chances for the NC.

I am also not worried about the late season "mon-swoon." That was then; this is now. This is a deep team not likely to wear down.

sagegrouse

[concrete]

I think Nolan will step it up next year. If we keep everyone and lose Paulus we will have a strong team. Add in Ryan Kelly and Younger Brother and I think we have a title team. I mean we have Zoubek, LT, Olek, Big Bro, Lil Bro, and Ryan Kelly so I can't see how we can't improve. Plus with Kyle and Hendo on board and I think the depth there is just too much to ignore.

[Diddy]

How susceptable are we to a Penetrating PG? Really?

Everyone here is down on Ty Lawson, cause of his attitude. The truth is, he is the best penetrating PG that College hoops has seen for several years. Paul was good, but he was a better shooter and lacked the body strength to operate like Lawson.

Lawson is SPECIAL.

If Teague, who I consider to be the best overall PG in the nation, doesn't go off on us, we will be OK. WFU has a couple of All star level forwards, which is what beat us there.

Will we have trouble with the Lawsons of the world? Yes. But he is the only Lawson we will face. Other PGs will do OK against us, but they won't, can't, kill us like TY did. Ty doesn't bring it every game. When he does, he is unstoppable at this level. Maybe Thabeet can alter his shots. Maybe not. But he's the only one in college.

Now, several teams have quality pgs to go along with athletic bigs. That is a recipe for disaster for this Duke team.

If we fail to get out of the first weekend again, it will be panic button time. It just will be. But I think a solid showing in the elite 8 would be sufficient for this year. I won't be happy about it, but I can live with it after a few days to calm down.

Here is a real head scratcher.

Last year, Nelson became a member of only the 2nd group of Srs at Duke not to get to the FF. No one on this years team has ever been out of the Sweet 16. We talk about how our team is experienced. But they aren't come March Madness.

We need a run to quiet the talk arround the program.

[BleedBlue]

This team reminds me somewhat of the 2002-2003 team what Dahntay Jones and company, minus the bigs we had with Shelden and Shav. We have good shooters, an athletic wing, an up and coming PG, and a versatile four man. I think a sweet sixteen or elite eight would be about right for this squad, but as someone pointed out, this is a one and done deal....anything can happen. I can say this team is for sure a top ten team in the NCAA right now, just not final four material.

As for next year, I have a few concerns here. Nolan Smith adds a great defensive mindset to the PG spot, but if Wall does not come in, we are going to be seriously thin in this department. Scheyer is capable of bringing the ball up the floor, but I am not sure how well that will work out. I can only speculate as of now, but from what I read, Henderson is a lottery pick if he comes out after this year. With Plumlee and Kelly coming in, we will get some much needed height down low, but still no traditional big man like we had with Brand and Boozer. Bottom line is it is so hard to speculate on recruits, and how they will mesh with the current team. I think next year could be really special if Henderson stays....having a couple of big men coming in who can shoot the J will pose some major match up problems too.

[Kedsy]

We may get a good matchup or just be really hot from outside, but we can't reliably handle top-20 teams with either or both of these on a neutral (i.e. hostile) court.

You don't think Purdue and Xavier are top 20 teams?

[Zeke]

IMO we will have trouble getting through the 2nd day of the ACC and the first weekend of the NCAA. I hope Henderson and Singlar stay but the money they will be offered will be very tempting.

[jv001]

This year: Strictly depends on our match ups. If we draw a team that has 2 quick guards, we are in for a lot of trouble. I say that we make it to the Sweet Sixteen by luck of the draw. Then we are in lot's of trouble.

Next year: I say we get Gerald and Kyle back. However the key will remain Nolan Smith and his adjustment to running the team. I do not think we will land John Wall(handlers). I look for Nolan to step up his play and we make the FF. Winning it is another matter. Too much luck involved to predict. Go Duke!

[Devilsfan]

This year we're a team of over achievers. A team to be proud of considering our power inside game and our guard play.

Next year I only hope we over achieve again. We still won't have a strong inside game and we will have two of our three guards back.

[kinghoops]

Hi,

Kinghoops, I've enjoyed reading your posts and your responses to mine. I feel we are both on the same side. You are just looking at things a bit differently than I, that's great. As Coach Wooden once said, "If everyone is thinking the same, then nobody is really thinking." I feel that Nolan Smith has shown flashes of brilliance. I agree he was steadier earlier in the season, but once one gets into conference play the pressure is different. We can go back and forth on one player or another or on the general level of play.

I would prefer to have a team with upside on the 12th of February than a team that can no longer get better because it has none. The players, and that includes G and Kyle, still have upside. I don't think they have peaked this season. Might I be wrong? Sure, let's see what transpires.

GO DUKE!

you are very correct that we are on the same side. i want to see this team win games as much as anyone, i just feel there has been a drop off since conference play started. and from reading most of the threads on this board, it seems most are content to say well carolina played well, and they did, but imo duke contributed to them playing well. and i agree this team does have some upside, but i want to see it come to fruition. and to be honest, i just dont see that right now.

[devildownunder]

It's all about matchups and getting on a hot streak in the NCAAs. Two eight seeds - Wisconsin and UNC - made it to the Final Four in 2000, and #11 seeded George Mason made the FF in 2006.

Teams can get on a roll. Don't lose hope.


Y'know what, a lot of people say this but I don't buy it. I think it's just what the losing side says to demonstrate why, let me turn it around. K is considered the best coach of his generation. Why is that? Primarily because of 7 FFs in 9 years and 3 national championships. But if tournament success is all based on hot streaks and the luck of the draw, then why should K -- or any coach -- be able to build a reputation on the strength of postseason success?

I agree that the one-and-done format does make upsets a greater possibility but I think that the vast majority of teams that have tournament success earn it with strong play that is indicative of the strengths they developed over the course of the year.

Season in and season out, the tournament produces teams that are surprises but are most of them due to teams just getting lucky or is it far more often the case that the public was simply unaware of how good a team was? I submit that it's more likely to be the latter.

The blue devils' struggles in the NCAA tournament lately haven't been the result of luck, IMO, any more than their successes were in the past. I think the recent editions have had some flaws to try to overcome that get tougher and tougher to handle as the competition gets better.

...But I won't lose hope!!!

[devildownunder]

I don't think anything is obvious in this regard. At the time, was the 1991 Duke team considered to be a "national championship caliber team"? They'd been to the NCAA finals the year before but they got beat by 30. They had 7 losses and before the NCAAs were only 7-5 against ranked teams (1-2 against out-of-conference ranked teams). They got clobbered in the ACC tournament.

It sounds like it was before your time, but NC State in 1983 and Villanova in 1985 were not considered to be national championship contenders, nor was Arizona in 1997. This year's Duke team is as good as any of those teams.

Personally, I think you should keep your internal expectations low enough so that you'll be disappointed but not devastated if/when they lose. At the same time, you shouldn't be overly critical of your team or give off negative vibes. Beyond that, I see no value in laying on the pressure of high expectations or of placing the restrictions of low ones. Let the team shoot for the stars and then be happy wherever it takes them.


You think this year's Duke team, right now, is as good as Arizona was throughout the regular season in 1997?

[burns15]

I believe strongly that we may be seeing the exact reverse of what happened after last years UNC game. Throughout that game and in the weeks following Carolina was still figuring out all the pieces they had and how they best fit together, especially once lawson returned. We on the other hand took a sharp downturn not long after that game causing most people to say we had "peaked" too early.

So what if the shoe is on the other foot now? What if the greatest team ever peaked last night in Cameron?

Obviously this Duke team has not put it all together offensively yet. From what we know of our guys offensive abilities and the way they have produced in the past, we know that we have not played our best offensively yet all year. What if the team has not peaked yet and will peak when the time is right in March? If I am not mistaken thats what a lot of people on here wanted last year. They complained we have peaked too early the past 5-6 years. Well maybe Coach K has figured it out and has a plan to help us play best in March. I for one trust that he does and trust that he knows what he is doing. The clincher for me was his press conference after the game saying, "We are not as good as we can be, we are still improving," while sounding immensely confident that he knew where this team was going and how to get it there. If Coach K is not concerned, Im not

[Uncle Drew]

I wasn't surpised at the result of the UNC game, but I was scratching my head in the way things played out. Duke got down and it looked like it could be on the verge of an ugly game to watch. Then they came back and not only took the lead but took a nice lead and seemed to be playing well. I don't think the technical killed momentum, I think it was gone shortly before the half. But at some point in the second half it looked as if Duke couldn't buy a basket (relying way too much on 3's) and couldn't stop UNC (Lawson to be specific) from adding to their lead.

The thing I feel about this team and last years team is "teased". I don't know really a better word for it. When McRoberts went pro and there was so much tallent returning around the conference I pictured a down year, a VERY down year. But by adding a few new wrinkles in the same old game plan Duke looked great most of the year going into February. Then the slide started and it looked like the rest of the year they would struggle to beat a high school team. Losing Nelson I pictured about the same kind of year if not worse this year. But for whatever reason Duke looked good early in the year and it all seemed to climax against Matyland when they looked like world beaters.

So it's odd when I say my expectations have been low the last two seasons only to be pleasantly surprised going into February. Yet both years, I don't know if it's oposing coaches figuring out what works against Duke, Duke players hitting slumps or the wall. But it's been kind of like going on a blind date. You're pessimistic thinking she's going to be less than hot and you meet her and she looks like a model. Then you go out with her and find out despite awesome looks she has two or three traits / habits that are obvious flaws and deal breakers. Don't get me wrong I'm not giving up on this team and I didn't give up on last years team until the final buzzer sounded. But both teams seemed to be totally on or totally off and it could last a few minutes or and entire game like against Clemson. I don't know what the switch is that "energizes" the players or makes them look like they are playing in wet concrete. But as confusing as it is to the fans I'll bet it's even puzzling to the coaches and players.

I don't want to say this team has peaked, because just like last season there is a ton of improvement that could be made between now and March. The thing is I'm not sure I see signs of that improvement. Past years to lose it took Duke having a bad night and the other team having a career night. The last two seasons it seems like under the right circumstance they could beat or lose to anyone. I said in a thread after the Michigan loss that this team and last years team played down or up to their competition. People disagreed with me and said as much. But aside from the Maryland and a few other games against much lesser opponents they have seemed to be on cruise control.

I think devildownunder makes some very valid points saying it hasn't all been bad match up draws when Duke has lost in the NCAA's. And truthfully even against those foes IMO Duke has played into the hands of those teams by hoisting up (even open) three's and keeping guards from getting to the paint. If you look at what this teams true strengths are, they are not a great three point shooting team. And despite a dominant inside game they are a decent if not good rebounding team. I'd like to see Duke at least try to work it inside more even if the ball gets kicked out. But it seems they have lost confidence in getting the ball down low and then having players cut to the rim for a pass or tip in rebound. Sure if Duke is firing on all cylinders from three they are deadly and it even opens up the inside as well. But logic says some inside baskets (even fouls) opens up the outside just as much if not more. I'm sure players are bummed as we fans are a little bummed but the energy and ball movement isn't there for 40 minutes a game.

If I had to predict right now I'd guess Duke will make it to Saturday in the ACC Tournament, with a 50/50 shot of making it to Sunday where they would NOT be favored. We don't know what is going to happen the rest of the season so seeding right now will be hard to predict for the NCAA's. But as a #4 seed or higher I can see the first game in Duke's favor and then a 75% chance of beating their second opponent to make the round of 16. Now teams get hot and teams go cold. If this team decides they want it bad enough I can see them making some real noise. But I wouldn't bet either of my ex wives on it at this point.

On a final note Clemson took a lot of heat in the polls because everyone thought same old Clemson before they have shown they are a different team than past years. Well frankly I think Duke was shown a lot of respect in the polls due to being Duke they may not have deserved with February apporoaching. I know which team I think is playing better ball right now and I'd much rather face the heels or Wake again as opposed to the Tigers. Thank you for your time, feel free to disagree. I still bleed Dark blue and as always Go To Hell Carolina Go To Hell.

[NYC Duke Fan]

I believe strongly that we may be seeing the exact reverse of what happened after last years UNC game. Throughout that game and in the weeks following Carolina was still figuring out all the pieces they had and how they best fit together, especially once lawson returned. We on the other hand took a sharp downturn not long after that game causing most people to say we had "peaked" too early.

So what if the shoe is on the other foot now? What if the greatest team ever peaked last night in Cameron?

Obviously this Duke team has not put it all together offensively yet. From what we know of our guys offensive abilities and the way they have produced in the past, we know that we have not played our best offensively yet all year. What if the team has not peaked yet and will peak when the time is right in March? If I am not mistaken thats what a lot of people on here wanted last year. They complained we have peaked too early the past 5-6 years. Well maybe Coach K has figured it out and has a plan to help us play best in March. I for one trust that he does and trust that he knows what he is doing. The clincher for me was his press conference after the game saying, "We are not as good as we can be, we are still improving," while sounding immensely confident that he knew where this team was going and how to get it there. If Coach K is not concerned, Im not

Sorry to respectfully disagree but I don't think that Coach K is thinking what you have posted. He just doesn't have the players...no inside presence, no penetrating PG, no athletic big man. I know that he tried with Patterson and Monroe, both of whom would have made a world of difference, and I know that he tried with Boynton, who would make a huge difference next year. But for reasons only known to the three players, none of them wanted to come to Duke to play for Coach K.

I hope that I am mistaken, but I just cannot see Duke, with the current personnel, winning 6 straight games...5 against quality ones.

At the beginning of the year there was great hope that this team was going to be special. Not to take anything away from the players, it has become a good Duke team but not a special team.

[Davidson09]

This year's Duke team is very good. But it lacks a strong inside presence that will be necessary to take on some of the tougher teams out there (read: UConn, Wake). I think as of now, this team will be a 2 seed again, getting into the Sweet 16, and losing to an underranked 3.

Next year, though, if everyone stays healthy, and G and Scheyer and Singler come back, with Nolan Smith at the PG and developing big men (Ryan Kelly, Plumlee, more of Zoubek), Duke could be unstoppable.

But I don't think this is the year.

BTW I don't know if any of you saw/care, but Davidson lost to College of Charleston on Saturday night at home. We had won 43 consecutive regular season conference games up to that point. The Southern Conference record is 44, set by West Virginia in the 50s. So, that stung a little bit. Obviously any and all losses here on out (excluding Butler) will hurt us quite a bit.

But we drew Butler in the Bracketbusters, and the game will be on ESPN at noon on Saturday, Feb. 21.

[Saratoga2]

All I can respond to is what has happened on the court. We have three excellent all around players in Singler, Henderson and Scheyer.

With them, we have McClure who plays excellent defense and can guard most players on the floor, perhaps with the exception of really big forwards/centers.

Nolan has improved and is getting more aggressive on the offensive side. His main weapon is his speed. His main drawback has been his inexperience at point. If he plays in the NBA it will be at point, so he needs to continue to develop his court awareness. I expect him to add a lot going down the stretch this year and be one of our better players next year.

Paulus has been playing much more aggressively and has contributed in the last couple of games. He can help us in our tournament run and won't be around for next year.

Thomas is showing signs of being more competitive. He is not a premier forward at this point, but is giving valuable minutes. Zoubek is also doing some good things, but is also not a premier center.

Given the status of Thomas and Zoubek, I often wonder why Plumlee is not getting more minutes. He has the athleticism and size to make a contribution now.

I also see a lot in Williams. He has ball handling equivalent to Henderson, great athletism and equivalent size. Clearly he needs to develop his court awareness. Giving him minutes in games may keep other wing players fresher while not hurting the team too much. Next year he should play get a lot more minutes.

Neither Pocius or Czyz show well in game situations and won't help us this year. Maybe next year but we shall see.

This team has deficiencies inside and at the point. I think our point play will improve going into th tournament which will still leave us vulnerable against the top tier teams. How far we go will depend oon matchups.

For next year,we will have Kelly and Plumlee II coming. If we don't lose Singler, we will have a lot of blgs competing for time. Maybe Miles, Mason or Ryan will add muscle and contribute at our weakest spot.

If we get Wall, we have a second legitimate point player and will be very effective at that position.

If we lose Henderson, we may have to play 3 big players in the lineup. Too early to tell how good we can be, but relying on freshmen to contribute is risky. Perhaps we will have another Singler in Plumlee or Kelly.

[whereinthehellami]

If Henderson goes pro next year, Duke takes a big step back. If Singler also goes pro, Duke is in some serious trouble (NCAA qualifying trouble).

Duke isn't getting Wall.

[Kedsy]

You think this year's Duke team, right now, is as good as Arizona was throughout the regular season in 1997?

That Arizona team lost 7 conference games (9 overall), including 5 conference losses to unranked teams and two conference losses to teams ranked #23 and #24. Once conference play started, their only victories over ranked teams were a one point victory (at home) over #21 Stanford and a nine point victory (also at home) against an overrated Tulane team.

So, actually I think this year's Duke team is better then that Arizona team, at least based on performance.

[Kedsy]

If Henderson goes pro next year, Duke takes a big step back. If Singler also goes pro, Duke is in some serious trouble (NCAA qualifying trouble).

NCAA qualifying trouble? That's just silly.

[NYC Duke Fan]

If Henderson goes pro next year, Duke takes a big step back. If Singler also goes pro, Duke is in some serious trouble (NCAA qualifying trouble).

Duke isn't getting Wall.

Totally agree with everything that you say. I assume that Coach K thought about both possibilities and I am not sure what his contingency plan is.

If Henderson decides to stay I would assume it is because he thinks that Duke has a legitimate chance for a championship, otherwise there is probably no reason for him to stay.

[CDu]

NCAA qualifying trouble? That's just silly.

Well, I don't think we'll be in NCAA qualifying trouble, but I don't think suggesting the possibility is silly. If we don't have Henderson and Singler next year (along with no Paulus and no McClure), we're looking at:

Smith
Scheyer
Williams
Ma Plumlee/Thomas/Kelly
Thomas/Zoubek/Mi Plumlee

With a bench of maybe Jordan Davidson (if he decides to return), maybe Pocius (ditto), whomever doesn't start in the frontcourt, and Czyz.

There's certainly the potential to be a really good team with just those guys, but it's asking for quite a bit of improvement from a lot of guys and/or big impact from the incoming frosh. It certainly wouldn't be unheard of for us to be a bubble team in that scenario.

That said, next year is a long way away. We don't know if Singler or Henderson will leave. We don't know how good the other players will get. It requires too much speculation.

[CDu]

Totally agree with everything that you say. I assume that Coach K thought about both possibilities and I am not sure what his contingency plan is.

If Henderson decides to stay I would assume it is because he thinks that Duke has a legitimate chance for a championship, otherwise there is probably no reason for him to stay.

There are a few possible reasons why Henderson might stay, including:
- improve his draft stock (we don't know if he's a lottery pick right now)
- maybe he really likes his college buddies
- maybe he likes playing for Coach K
- maybe he wants another shot to win vs Carolina in Cameron (not a likely reason, but you never know)
- just doesn't feel ready for the NBA game/lifestyle, and wants another year of success in college ball

To say that there's no reason for him to stay other than a championship is very limiting. We don't have any idea exactly what all will go into Henderson's decision.

[Johnboy]

Season in and season out, the tournament produces teams that are surprises but are most of them due to teams just getting lucky or is it far more often the case that the public was simply unaware of how good a team was? I submit that it's more likely to be the latter.

The blue devils' struggles in the NCAA tournament lately haven't been the result of luck, IMO, any more than their successes were in the past. I think the recent editions have had some flaws to try to overcome that get tougher and tougher to handle as the competition gets better.

...But I won't lose hope!!!


I never said the NCAAs were ALL about hot streaks and luck of the draw. no need for reductio ad absurdum. What I said (or meant, anyway) is that we are perfectly capable of getting on a hot streak (like the one we saw in the first half of the game) and we may get matchups that are favorable, so we should adopt a wait and see attitude.

I also think this team has a whole lot of upside left to find, despite some of the weaknesses that UNC exploited.

[Kedsy]

You think this year's Duke team, right now, is as good as Arizona was throughout the regular season in 1997?

Oh, I almost forgot, that Arizona team had (wait for it) no inside presence. Their season long rebound margin was 2.4, including their six wins in the NCAA tourney (ours is 5.1), and they only had 2.9 blocks per game (we have 4.3). And despite having Mike Bibby, their team assist-to-turnover ratio was only 1.1 (ours is 1.05). They pretty much relied on 3 big time players (Bibby, Simon, and Dickerson, although they also had an underachieving Jason Terry scoring 10 ppg). They only outscored their opponents (again, including the NCAAs) by 10, while we outscore our opponents by almost 16.

The more I think about it, the current Duke squad is a much better team than that Arizona team was, at least before the NCAA tournament started.

[miramar]

I think that there are two factors coloring our impressions right now: 1) Duke is going through a rough patch, and 2) Duke doesn't match up well with Carolina.

As far as #1 is concerned, Carolina had the same problem a few weeks back and righted the ship, and I expect that Duke will do the same. If you think abut it, we have been terrible four out of the last six halves: Clemson first (-12) and second (-15), Miami first (-13), and Carolina second (-22!).

Duke's shooting has been horrendous in those halves: Clemson first (33.3%, 16.7% 3PT) and second (28.6% for both), Miami first (19.4%, 25%), and Carolina second (36.1% and 13.3%). Obviously we can expect Duke's shooting to improve dramatically, but it needs to happen soon. This season seems to have gone by fast for me, and I can't believe that there are only two home games left.

#2 is far more problematic since Carolina is tough on the inside and they have the penetrating point guard that Duke has had trouble with the last few years. As has been noted, Lawson is Lawson, and Duke will always have trouble with him when he's on, but I have no doubt that Duke can do a better job against him. We seem to do better with Hansbrough than most teams, even with our lack of size.

My biggest disappointment is that it seems that Coach K has decided that the freshman will not be able to contribute this year, and that is something that I was really counting on, especially in the paint. I can only hope they stay positive and that we don't have the Burgess, King, Boyken, Boateng problem again.

As far as next year is concerned, it all depends on who returns and how much this year's freshman class develops.

[whereinthehellami]

NCAA qualifying trouble? That's just silly.

Silly? I'm not saying they wouldn't qualify under those circumstances, just that they will be on the bubble. I'll break it down for you. Duke is 20-4 right now with 7 games left and with the way they are playing/looking i say they will finish out with 4 wins and 3 loses (24-7). Add in 1-2 ACC tourney wins and they are at 26-8. Obviously they are in the NCAAs.

Without Singler and Henderson, Dukes lineup for next year will look something like this:

Smith 6-2 JR
Williams 6-4 SO
Scheyer 6-5 SR
Thomas 6-8 SR
Zoubek 7-0 SR

Plumlee 6-10 FR
Kelly 6-9 FR

That is a decent lineup but the issues of this year will be magnified greatly. Its not hard to imagine Duke losing 4-5 more games next year than they did this year. 1-2 out of conference games, at least 2 more loses in the ACC and a quick out in the ACC tourney and you are at 18-19 wins. And that is the bubble.

[CDu]

Silly? I'm not saying they wouldn't qualify under those circumstances, just that they will be on the bubble. I'll break it down for you. Duke is 20-4 right now with 7 games left and with the way they are playing/looking i say they will finish out with 4 wins and 3 loses (24-7). Add in 1-2 ACC tourney wins and they are at 26-8. Obviously they are in the NCAAs.

Without Singler and Henderson, Dukes lineup for next year will look something like this:

Smith 6-2 JR
Williams 6-4 SO
Scheyer 6-5 SR
Thomas 6-8 SR
Zoubek 7-0 SR

Plumlee 6-10 FR
Kelly 6-9 FR

That is a decent lineup but the issues of this year will be magnified greatly. Its not hard to imagine Duke losing 4-5 more games next year than they did this year. 1-2 out of conference games, at least 2 more loses in the ACC and a quick out in the ACC tourney and you are at 18-19 wins. And that is the bubble.

You ignored Plumlee the elder and (possibly, but maybe unlikely) Pocius. But I agree with your overall point. I think that we'd probably still find a way in with that roster, but it's a very real possibility that such a team would be on the bubble.

Granted, it's very reasonable to think that Singler and Henderson could be back next year, making such a concern a non-issue.

[Kedsy]

Silly? I'm not saying they wouldn't qualify under those circumstances, just that they will be on the bubble. I'll break it down for you. Duke is 20-4 right now with 7 games left and with the way they are playing/looking i say they will finish out with 4 wins and 3 loses (24-7). Add in 1-2 ACC tourney wins and they are at 26-8. Obviously they are in the NCAAs.

Without Singler and Henderson, Dukes lineup for next year will look something like this:

Smith 6-2 JR
Williams 6-4 SO
Scheyer 6-5 SR
Thomas 6-8 SR
Zoubek 7-0 SR

Plumlee 6-10 FR
Kelly 6-9 FR

That is a decent lineup but the issues of this year will be magnified greatly. Its not hard to imagine Duke losing 4-5 more games next year than they did this year. 1-2 out of conference games, at least 2 more loses in the ACC and a quick out in the ACC tourney and you are at 18-19 wins. And that is the bubble.

What about the other Plumlee?

I honestly don't remember, was the 2007 Duke team on the bubble? If so, I'll take it all back, but I don't recall anything like that. IMO, the team you describe is better than that team.

[davekay1971]

For this year Duke should still aspire to be a final 4 team. I'm not turning a blind eye to the last 5 games. But, putting it in perspective I saw 3 bad halves in 5 games (the whole Clemson game and the first half against Miami), but an overall very good performance against a Wake team that was, at the time, playing like a final four team, a dominating performance against Virginia, a GREAT second half against Miami, and 30 minutes of really good basketball against the Greatest Team Ever. The results - 2 good wins, a really bad loss, and 2 losses against top 5 teams. Duke needs to get better if we're going to get to the final four, but there's no reason to give up hope on that.

As for next year, I'm not going to begin to speculate until we know if we'll have Singler and Henderson back. With them, we have national championship aspirations. Without, we probably don't.

[CDu]

What about the other Plumlee?

I honestly don't remember, was the 2007 Duke team on the bubble? If so, I'll take it all back, but I don't recall anything like that. IMO, the team you describe is better than that team.

The 2007 team had a young Henderson, an underrated McRoberts, and a veteran Nelson. And that team was a #6 seed. Next year's team could be better than that team, but they could be much worse.

The reason it's not silly to say we could be a bubble team is that you're relying on a lot of unknowns to step up (will any of the bigs be ready to produce? will Williams be ready?). Comparing to 2007 is kind of pointless, because we don't have any idea whether next year's team will be better than the 2007 team.

[greybeard]

I think that this team has struggled with coming to terms with how it wants to attack on offense for much of the season. I also think that that ambivalence has been resolved. Let me be more specific.

I think it was intended that this year the offense would look to initiate offensive play a reasonable amount of time through feeding the ball inside, with the first option being a big man making a scoring attempt. That doesn't mean that the first pass made had to be an entry pass--just that the entry pass would, a fair amount of time, be what the team was after, and that the gambit/strategy was to play off the need of the defense to help stop the inside score.

For obvious reasons, I think that the team and the coaching staff just danced with this concept, and that it never really took hold.

I think that a decision has been made to jettison that inside-out type play (my term) as an integral part of the offense, and that a more all out commitment has been made to other options. That is what we saw in the last two ball games.

I think that cutting the string has its pluses and minuses. The plus, Duke can be a very, very potent offense without the ambivalence. The minus, there are a number of advantages to be gained if you can play for close-in baskets by a big that Duke gives away. I think that K was reluctant to jettison that aspect of this year's offensive attack for just such reasons, but that he decided that he needed greater predictability, and the aggressiveness on offense that such predictability can inspire, so he decided to cut it loose.

Bottom line, I think K said it all after the Carolina game. His team is real good, and played very well against Carolina, and that that was just not good enough to beat Carolina. Thankfully, few teams have lineups that can compare to Carolina's, and few teams will get the kind of performance Carolina got from a number of its players the other night. What that adds up to, I don't think that you want to play Duke in the tournament, especially in the early rounds. This team will get after people on both ends; they will not go gently into the night.

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

Ridiculous as it may sound, BC is now a very big game for us. If we come out, shut down Rice, and dominate then we can say that this is still a good (and confident) team that struggled with some very good/great teams. We won't drop much in the polls, our NCAA buzz remains strong, etc. If we are in a close game or (heaven forbid) lose then I think we're looking at a tailspin.

Fair or not the assumption will be "another February collapse." We'll plummet in the polls, our seeding will look shaky, and I suspect the team will mentally go "not again." A lot of questions were answered on Wednesday (unfortunately) and a lot more may be answered on Sunday. I hope K has us ready to give a good one.

[Devilsfan]

Without Singler and Henderson we suddenly look like a very good mid-major team, IMO.

[Diddy]

I am not sure how much trouble we will be in next year once conference play starts.

Even without Kyle and Gerald.

Would their defections decimate the team? Hels yeah.

Welcome to next year's ACC.

Who will be the power in the conference next year?

UNC graduates two of their top 3 players, and 3 of their top 7. Two others might go pro. Of their current starters, only Thompson figures to return, and if he has a stretch run of games playing like he did against us, he might go pro also. UNC getting Ginyard back will help, and they have a solid recruiting class. It is a team capable of competing for the ACC reg season title. But it won't be a walk. They will be without the top flight PG that Roy likes to have. The will lose several games.

WFU: Some here in Winston are delusional about it, but that team will suffer major attrition this year. Easily 2, and probably 3, of their Big 3 will go to the NBA. They will have good remaining players and solid recruits, so they will be OK. If either Johnson or Aminu returns, with the rest of the team and the incoming recruits WFU might be a co-favorite to win the league, but they will still drop a couple of games.

GT looks great, if, and only in, Lawal returns. Oh, with their returning players and recruits, they will be a good team in the NCAAs even without Lawal. But with Lawal and Cousins down low, GT looks like a co favorite in the ACC.

BC: Loses Rice
Miami: Loses McClinton
FSU: Loses Echefu and Toney Douglas.
UMD: Unless Lance Stephenson comes, they will be OK, not great.
Clemson: Good looking team. Maybe conf Favorite.
The Rest: Eh.

While Duke would take a step back without Hendo and Kyle, virtually every other team does also. Now, if Wake shocks the world and brings Teague AND Johnson back (Aminu is a lottery lock and gone) they'll be fantastic, and Clemson might be also.

But I see a lot of the other teams in the league with real problems. Absolutely worst cast scenario, Duke projects as the Fifth best team in the Conf. Depending on what happens at GT and WFU, Duke could move to as high as third pre season. Second if UNC were to suffer some truly unexpected defections.

We won't be the conf favorite, but we would be solid in a very competitive ACC next year.

Much as I dread the derision for the following comment, please consider it before ripping me.

If Gerald goes, I hope Kyle goes with him. I think of it like taking a band aid off. I would rather rip it off all at once than slowly.

If Hendo leaves and Kyle returns, Kyle will be the man a la JJ his Sr year. The rest of the team will subsume themselves to his game. It will work pretty good, and Duke would contend for the ACC titles. But he would then leave and we would have to start over.

Without Kyle, more of our younger players will play. Kyle plays a very similiar game to both our incoming Frosh. If he stays, he will play 35 or so MPG, and they won't play much, period. One will, but the other will only get spot MPG.

Next year would be a learning experience. We would have experienced Guards and Fs ready to welcome a talented Frosh class. Barnes or Dawkins would be the athletic WF, with solid Frosh off the bench, that would make for a NC caliber team.

Now, if one of the frosh is better than advertised and capable of doing real damage, or if we miraculously get Wall, then I hope Kyle comes back. Next year is a national title team.

But, if we don't get Wall, and the Frosh need some time to adjust to college, then Kyle would become the crutch for the team. They would lean entirely upon him to their own detriment.

I hope G and K come back, but given the deficincies of the team, we may have to take a long term view to get back to the top.

[whereinthehellami]

You ignored Plumlee the elder and (possibly, but maybe unlikely) Pocius. But I agree with your overall point. I think that we'd probably still find a way in with that roster, but it's a very real possibility that such a team would be on the bubble.

Granted, it's very reasonable to think that Singler and Henderson could be back next year, making such a concern a non-issue.

I didn't forget them but I don't see them being part of the regular rotation. I'm not sure Pocius will be back next year.

I just don't see Singler and Henderson coming back for next year. I'm not sure who goes but I don't see them both coming back.


The 2007 team had a young Henderson, an underrated McRoberts, and a veteran Nelson. And that team was a #6 seed. Next year's team could be better than that team, but they could be much worse.

McRroberts, a young Henderson, and Nelson would be stars on this possible team we are talking about for next year.


Without Singler and Henderson we suddenly look like a very good mid-major team, IMO.

I think that is spot on. If the above lineup does happen for next year, it is what it is. A down year. It happens. Help is on the way with the following class but that lineup would struggle against alot of teams.

[whereinthehellami]

If Hendo leaves and Kyle returns, Kyle will be the man a la JJ his Sr year. The rest of the team will subsume themselves to his game. It will work pretty good, and Duke would contend for the ACC titles. But he would then leave and we would have to start over.

Without Kyle, more of our younger players will play. Kyle plays a very similiar game to both our incoming Frosh. If he stays, he will play 35 or so MPG, and they won't play much, period. One will, but the other will only get spot MPG.

Next year would be a learning experience. We would have experienced Guards and Fs ready to welcome a talented Frosh class. Barnes or Dawkins would be the athletic WF, with solid Frosh off the bench, that would make for a NC caliber team.

Now, if one of the frosh is better than advertised and capable of doing real damage, or if we miraculously get Wall, then I hope Kyle comes back. Next year is a national title team.

But, if we don't get Wall, and the Frosh need some time to adjust to college, then Kyle would become the crutch for the team. They would lean entirely upon him to their own detriment.

I hope G and K come back, but given the deficincies of the team, we may have to take a long term view to get back to the top.

I say enjoy Kyle's game for as long as you can. He is special. Henderson gets all the flashy headlines and highlights but take a look at the stats. Kyle dominates them. Without Kyle for next year we become a soft team that will have minimal frontcourt presence. The freshman are going to struggle with strength and the speed of the ACC. They are going to get eaten alive on the boards and on defense. Thomas and Zoubek will no douhbt step up somewhat but they are and will be role players.

This is Duke's big chance to make a deep run into March unless Henderson and Singler both come back next year. If they both leave or only one comes back then it could be awhile (2010-2011) before Duke is able to make another long run into March.

[tjk1712]

So what kind of seed do you think we will be looking at in the tourney? Obviously the loss to Carolina didn't help us out with the #1, so I'm thinking the best we can do is #2. I have a feeling we might even slip to #3. Lunardi has us at about a 3. I like how http://ncaa-bracket.com updates theirs on a daily basis. What do you guys think?

[Classof06]

As far as this year is concerned, I would think we can make it to the Sweet 16 but I can't objectively sit here and say I think we're an Elite 8 or Final 4 caliber team. As of 2/13/09, that's just not the case. The one caveat I will throw in is that we have a lot of really good shooters but have yet to shoot well as a team. Last year, we peaked too soon; this year, I believe we have yet to peak. We still haven't shot anywhere near as well as we did last year and you have to think things will click at some point. That is something I will keep a very close eye on as we near March because we all know that when this team makes shots, they can play with anyone (see last 15 minutes of 1st half Wednesday night)

As far as next year goes, I still personally feel quite confident that both Henderson and Singler return; Singler moreso than Henderson but confident in both nonetheless. I know I may be in the minority on that but it is what it is. Furthermore, for the first time in as many as 3-4 seasons, Duke will finally have frontline depth (whether Krzyzewski decides to use it or not remains to be seen). We'll have a 7-foot Zoubek, the two 6-10/6-11 MPs and a 6-10 Ryan Kelly. Whether two of them are freshman or not, that will automatically make Duke a better team, IMO. For these reasons, I believe Duke will be arguably the best team in the country. Clearly, we need to see them on the floor before we can say anything definitively. But on paper, there's no reason Duke can't make a Final Four in '09-10.

Just one man's opinion..

[geraldsneighbor]

Lunardi has Duke as a 2 seed now. Duke's RPI and SOS is real high and I think if Duke can finish strong they will be a 2 seed. I like the region they currently have us in. Teams we would have to beat en route to a FF would be Kentucky, Nova, and Oklahoma. Obviously lots can change so I'm going to remain focused on BC Sunday. Hopefully we can pick up a W in Chestnut Hill.

[Fish80]

To early to tell, but we probably need some help to get back into consideration for a #1 seed.

UConn, Oklahoma, UNC and Pittsburg all look pretty strong.

UConn and Pitt still face each other twice, 2/16 and 3/7. So one of them might pick up a couple of losses there.

Even if we win out, including a win at UNC, we might not get to a 1 seed unless one of those 4 gets another loss or two.

Louisville just got spanked by the Irish, so they might slip a bit.

But who knows. There are still a lot of games left to play, just about another month. :D

[Classof06]

I say enjoy Kyle's game for as long as you can. He is special. Henderson gets all the flashy headlines and highlights but take a look at the stats. Kyle dominates them. Without Kyle for next year we become a soft team that will have minimal frontcourt presence. The freshman are going to struggle with strength and the speed of the ACC. They are going to get eaten alive on the boards and on defense. Thomas and Zoubek will no douhbt step up somewhat but they are and will be role players.

This is Duke's big chance to make a deep run into March unless Henderson and Singler both come back next year. If they both leave or only one comes back then it could be awhile (2010-2011) before Duke is able to make another long run into March.

I'm not going to debate who's more important between Singler or Henderson because both are phenomenal players. All I'll say is that while Kyle has the stats to back up his play, Duke's problem is their inability to get to the basket when the shots don't fall....and the shots haven't really fallen. Henderson is the only player on that roster that's capable of getting to the rim at will; take him away and Duke becomes so easily guardable it's scary. Like "barely a Top 25 team" scary.

Singler does so many things for this team that the average fan will never pick up. But there have been times (especially recently) where it's been Gerald and four other players out there.

[dukelifer]

Kyle is a talented college player -no doubt- but does his game really translate to the NBA? I have a hard time coming up with a comparable player in the current NBA. What player's game in the NBA is comparable?

[MarkD83]

It is interesting to hear everyone's opinions about expectations, but I hear a lot of linear thinking that I have heard for several years that we need to rethink as fans.

First, as we compare this team to team's in the past (and I mean back to the 1980's) all Duke teams except perhaps the 1999 Duke team have had issues to deal with. The role of the coaching staff is to try to focus on the team's strengths and hide the deficiencies by game planning.

Second, since we are fans of Duke we see all of the flaws in our team and not those of other teams. You can not tell me that LSU, VCU or West Virginia were perfect teams. They had flaws but we did not exploit those flaws and those other teams did exploit our flaws because over the past few years Duke has become predictable.

That brings me to the non-linear line of thinking. I believe the Clemson game was a wake up call for Coach K. Up until then he was letting the team try to find its own energy during a game. (The exception was the Maryland game. Even when the score was 60-20 he was up giving instructions and trying to give energy to the team.) He also has tried to work with a "traditional" line-up; PG, SG, SF, PF and C. I know we tend to think that Coach K does not put people in positions but up until the Clemson game he was trying very hard to put a traditional team on the floor. Nolan as PG, Jon as SG, G as SF, Kyle as PF and Zoubs or Thomas as center.

During or slightly after the Clemson game I think he realized he needed to make a change and do something to restore confidence in his team. Unfortunately that meant that a week before the toughest game of the year he could not fully concentrate on developing game plans to beat Miami or UNC but instead had to keep internally focussed. That being said the two games were successful. I believe the team has some confidence again.

Furthermore, I believe Coach K now realizes with 7 games left in the regular season that he has to try things to exploit Duke's strengths and force other teams to worry about the mismatches that Duke can create. Will Zoubs, Williams, Plumlee and Pocius have a role in this? I think so. Coach K will play the players that best give other teams match-up problems, which may mean going big when needed (which possibly means that Zoubs and Plumlee will get more time) or going small (which means Williams and Pocius will get more time).

(As an aside UNC has good to great players at all positions so in fact they have very few weaknesses to exploit and it will take some exceptional game planning to beat them.)

Duke can go 4-3 or 7-0 over the next few weeks. It does not matter to me which they do (although I would prefer 7-0). What I will be looking for is for Duke to be unpredictable in how they attack each team.

So try a lineup with Greg, Nolan, Jon, Gerald and Elliot for a few minutes. Put both Zoubs and Plumlee down low for awhile. Use the 1-3-1 trap that showed up against Miami for a few possessions. Keep in mind unlike years past, we have three scoring threats that teams have to prepare for and each brings a different matchup problem for the defense. We also have several other players that could be wildcards if ignored.

So after all of this rambling my expectations are not wins and losses in the regular season, but for Coach K to work on lineups that will make it hard for teams that have not played Duke to figure out a good game plan.

[houstondukie]

Hi,

I know I have been a bit flippant in some of my posts recently, but I am serious about this one.

You don't think that Lance is starting to play much better and be more assertive? You don't feel that Greg is starting to add more than he has in quite a while? You don't think Kyle might have been a little tired for a couple of games and is now playing really well? You don't feel that Coach K is using his bench more than in recent years and giving lots of players a chance to contribute? You don't feel that Coach K is looking more and more "into it" as the season progresses?

Are you accounting for the level of competition? We haven't lost to bad teams that are unranked in this recent skid. However, we did lose to Michigan and then the ship was righted.

I feel people are being harsh, way too harsh, on this team. I think one must take into account the level of the competition and where games are played. The Devils were one play from winning at Wake. I feel that at Clemson the whole thing could have gone south, but it didn't! The ship was righted against Miami. Do you really feel that the team played poorly last night? Do you not give any credit to the Tar Heels playing well? Is every Duke loss because Duke is playing badly?

Let's see what happens on the road on Sunday. I think that is more of a litmus test than losing to a team that was supposed to go undefeated and their point guard plays like an NBA lottery pick. I don't think many if any teams would have been able to withstand the Tar Heels defensive pressure and offensive prowess demonstrated last night. Who knows maybe the Heels peaked last night and the Devils are just starting their ascent?

GO DUKE!

Excellent post.

I do believe their is something strange about Duke this year. Certainly we have looked terrible at times (e.g. Clemson), especially on the offensive side of the ball. However, at times we have also looked like a beautiful, fun motion offense firing on all cylinders (e.g. Maryland, Xavier, UNC last 10 min of first half). Our defense (UNC second half notwithstanding) has been amazing and statistically one of Duke's best ever.

So my heart tells me that Duke this year is too good to not make a run in the tourney. I just hope this team has not peaked early like it has in the past several seasons.

I guess what I'm saying is that this year will be a very, very unpredicable tournament for Duke. We could easily lose in the 2nd round again, but have the talent and defense to make a Final Four run.

[OldSchool]

Kyle is a talented college player -no doubt- but does his game really translate to the NBA? I have a hard time coming up with a comparable player in the current NBA. What player's game in the NBA is comparable?

Of course, Kyle today is far from his ultimate potential but when he eventually reaches the level of experience of someone like a Luke Walton or a Matt Barnes, I can foresee Kyle being as good or better an NBA player.

[dukelifer]

Of course, Kyle today is far from his ultimate potential but when he eventually reaches the level of experience of someone like a Luke Walton or a Matt Barnes, I can foresee Kyle being as good or better an NBA player.

I agree he will find a niche but I don't think he is a lottery pick this year or perhaps ever unless he become a NPOY. The discussion has been about Kyle leaving. Unless he is not enjoying being a student, I can't see a reason why he would leave after his sophomore year.

[_Gary]

Ridiculous as it may sound, BC is now a very big game for us. If we come out, shut down Rice, and dominate then we can say that this is still a good (and confident) team that struggled with some very good/great teams. We won't drop much in the polls, our NCAA buzz remains strong, etc. If we are in a close game or (heaven forbid) lose then I think we're looking at a tailspin.

Fair or not the assumption will be "another February collapse." We'll plummet in the polls, our seeding will look shaky, and I suspect the team will mentally go "not again." A lot of questions were answered on Wednesday (unfortunately) and a lot more may be answered on Sunday. I hope K has us ready to give a good one.


Unfortunately, I think you are spot on with that analysis. The upcoming game is huge, huge, huge! I'd almost call it a must win at this point.

I'm also with the group that thinks if we lost Kyle and Gerald next year we could potentially be very shaky for an invite to the Big Dance. Note, I said "potentially", not definitely.

[OldSchool]

I agree he will find a niche but I don't think he is a lottery pick this year or perhaps ever unless he become a NPOY. The discussion has been about Kyle leaving. Unless he is not enjoying being a student, I can't see a reason why he would leave after his sophomore year.

I too would be very surprised if Kyle left this year, even though it is reputed to be an especially weak draft. Putting the monetary aspect aside, life in the NBA is a business and a grind and a rookie like Kyle would be basically a nobody relative to the stars in the NBA. On the other hand, other than during exam week, life as an undergrad student and basketball star at Duke is highly enjoyable. I've heard Luol make statements suggesting he would have preferred to come back to Duke, but he had a unique family situation with his father in particular encouraging him to step up to the responsibilities and opportunities of a professional career.

G is a different story. It is not inconceivable he rises to lottery level this year. The question is what is his ultimate potential. If he can really improve his handles and court vision, then to my mind his ultimate potential is on the level of someone like (don't laugh) Dwyane Wade. But again, you can never really get those lost college years back once you leave early and the NBA will still be there if G sticks around another year. And it remains to be seen how G will finish out this year.

[TwoDukeTattoos]

Yes, due to Duke's past success, we are a spoiled fan base. Given that, I am simply going to enjoy watching these kids play. I have no expectations. Honestly, it's quite possible to lose any game we play. With no post presence, we are as vulnerable as anyone.

[DukeDevilDeb]

I too would be very surprised if Kyle left this year, even though it is reputed to be an especially weak draft. Putting the monetary aspect aside, life in the NBA is a business and a grind and a rookie like Kyle would be basically a nobody relative to the stars in the NBA. On the other hand, other than during exam week, life as an undergrad student and basketball star at Duke is highly enjoyable. I've heard Luol make statements suggesting he would have preferred to come back to Duke, but he had a unique family situation with his father in particular encouraging him to step up to the responsibilities and opportunities of a professional career.

G is a different story. It is not inconceivable he rises to lottery level this year. The question is what is his ultimate potential. If he can really improve his handles and court vision, then to my mind his ultimate potential is on the level of someone like (don't laugh) Dwyane Wade. But again, you can never really get those lost college years back once you leave early and the NBA will still be there if G sticks around another year. And it remains to be seen how G will finish out this year.

I have Kyle in class... he is a really bright kid who seems to value the academic and peer side of things as well as the athletic. But he also has to have the NBA as his ultimate goal. I think he'll stay another year at least unless there is a quantum leap in his skill level between now and the end of the NCAA tournament.

I watch G sometimes and think "Man, don't do that well.. we don't want you to leave!" Then I hit myself! :p But with a senior class of G, Lance, Zoubs, Jon and Marty, with Kyle and Nolan as juniors, and so on... we could be very good.

Either way, I'm really glad that both Gerald and Kyle chose to come to Duke.

Go Devils!

[devildownunder]

Oh, I almost forgot, that Arizona team had (wait for it) no inside presence. Their season long rebound margin was 2.4, including their six wins in the NCAA tourney (ours is 5.1), and they only had 2.9 blocks per game (we have 4.3). And despite having Mike Bibby, their team assist-to-turnover ratio was only 1.1 (ours is 1.05). They pretty much relied on 3 big time players (Bibby, Simon, and Dickerson, although they also had an underachieving Jason Terry scoring 10 ppg). They only outscored their opponents (again, including the NCAAs) by 10, while we outscore our opponents by almost 16.

The more I think about it, the current Duke squad is a much better team than that Arizona team was, at least before the NCAA tournament started.

I'll concede your point about their regular season performance, I actually didn't realise so many of their losses were in conference, but you couldn't be more wrong about their lack of an inside presence:

Forward - #21 Bennett Davison, Jr. (9.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg)
Center - #42 A.J. Bramlett, So. (8.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg)

Let's see, that's 18 and 13 between the two of them, on average, all year.

By the way, here are the starters and key reserves for that team (http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/sportsnation/story?page=NCAA1997Arizona). Interesting to note that Jason Terry came off the bench.

Bennett Davision and A.J. Bramlett were MAJOR contributors for that team in its run to the title. While neither was a big-time back-to-basket scorer, they were both agile, ran the floor well, played interior defense and could score off feeds from Jason Terry and Mike Bibby.

That was anything but a doughnut team.

[Devilsfan]

I don't think Kyle leaves. He'll be our one true DUKE player. Jon will be Mr. Intangible. I think our front line will not be more experienced or deeper just a new three or four headed monster of role players. Our front line players will not have two or three years experience just one years experience two or three times. How do you say "ground hogs day?". Ryan will probably spell Kyle, as for the guards the beat goes on. Good but no Duhon, Jwill, JJ, or the like as of now. We may be saying wait 'till next year in 2009-2010. That's just my opinion and I REALLY hope I'm wrong.

[gwwilburn]

I'm no expert, but I don't think we've seen the last of this years team. I don't think we make it to Detroit this March, but the Sweet Sixteen is a very realistic possibility. As for next year, a little more inside presence can't hurt, and Zoubek and Thomas will be seniors, so if Gerald and Kyle stay, Duke looks to be the favorite in a conference that is going to be decimated by early departures this year.

[pfrduke]

I'll concede your point about their regular season performance, I actually didn't realise so many of their losses were in conference, but you couldn't be more wrong about their lack of an inside presence:

Forward - #21 Bennett Davison, Jr. (9.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg)
Center - #42 A.J. Bramlett, So. (8.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg)

Let's see, that's 18 and 13 between the two of them, on average, all year.

By the way, here are the starters and key reserves for that team (http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/sportsnation/story?page=NCAA1997Arizona). Interesting to note that Jason Terry came off the bench.

Bennett Davision and A.J. Bramlett were MAJOR contributors for that team in its run to the title. While neither was a big-time back-to-basket scorer, they were both agile, ran the floor well, played interior defense and could score off feeds from Jason Terry and Mike Bibby.

That was anything but a doughnut team.

I think the point is that their forwards and our forwards are similar. I mean, Singler and Zoubek (our starting 4 and 5 for most of the season) collectively average 21.4 and 12.6.

I honestly can't remember watching the 1997 Wildcats play. I have no idea whether Bramlett and Davison successfully guarded big, talented post players or not, but the point is that they had no more of a typical inside presence than we do.

[Rich]

If he can really improve his handles and court vision, then to my mind his ultimate potential is on the level of someone like (don't laugh) Dwyane Wade. But again, you can never really get those lost college years back once you leave early and the NBA will still be there if G sticks around another year. And it remains to be seen how G will finish out this year.

G needs to develop going to his left. Not having that skill will be exploited at the next level.

[devildownunder]

I think the point is that their forwards and our forwards are similar. I mean, Singler and Zoubek (our starting 4 and 5 for most of the season) collectively average 21.4 and 12.6.

I honestly can't remember watching the 1997 Wildcats play. I have no idea whether Bramlett and Davison successfully guarded big, talented post players or not, but the point is that they had no more of a typical inside presence than we do.

I know what the point was, and I'm saying I strongly disagree with it. Singler is a completely different kind of player than Bramlett or Davision. Those guys' jobs were to rebound, defend, get garbage points and finish when Bibby and company set them up with penetration, and by tournament time, they were doing all 3 very well.

Singler, on the other hand, helps on the interior because we need him to but is much more of an outside player than either bramlett or davision. So much so that to add his totals to Zoubek's for the year and call that our "inside presence" -- traditional or otherwise -- is inaccurate. Zoubek scores a ton of points out on the perimeter or in making moves on the perimeter for drives, Arizona's starting forward and center that year did nothing of the kind.

[Constantstrain 81]

Maybe a little bit of sky falling here. Midway through the second half of the UNC game - it was anyone's game. Our problem seemed to be execution, some poor coaching reaction to Ty Lawson, and just some bad luck.

We stopped moving the ball inside out. We had shots rattle out. We had had some balls bounce off the wrong hands. Hansguy hits a lucky 3 at the end of a shot clock. etc. etc.

Ty Lawson drove to the hoop and shot layups the whole half. The first guy was not the problem. It was the lack of height and intimidation at the end of the play. Where was Zoubek? Where was Plumlee? I am not a legendary coaching genius, but I can make that call. They could not have done worse than what we were doing.

Cut the guys a break. We have had a great season and that will continue. It will be all right. We may have a UNC hangover against BC, but quality will out and we are quality.

[devildownunder]

Ugh, reading over my last post demonstrates why I should never write anything after wandering into the computer room on the way back to bed at 7am.

Sorry but Z doesn't play much on the perimeter, Singler does, however. And it'd Davison, not Davision. Nice.

[Kedsy]

I know what the point was, and I'm saying I strongly disagree with it. Singler is a completely different kind of player than Bramlett or Davision. Those guys' jobs were to rebound, defend, get garbage points and finish when Bibby and company set them up with penetration, and by tournament time, they were doing all 3 very well.

Singler, on the other hand, helps on the interior because we need him to but is much more of an outside player than either bramlett or davision. So much so that to add his totals to Zoubek's for the year and call that our "inside presence" -- traditional or otherwise -- is inaccurate. Zoubek scores a ton of points out on the perimeter or in making moves on the perimeter for drives, Arizona's starting forward and center that year did nothing of the kind.

Forget Singler and try this:

1996-97, Bramlett and Davison, combined average stats:

52.2 mins per game
17.8 pts per game
13.3 rebs per game
1.7 blks per game

2008-09, Zoubek, Thomas, McClure, Plumlee combined average stats:
(note: I had to use four players to get roughly the same number of minutes)

53.4 mins per game
14.8 pts per game
12.9 rebs per game
2.3 blks per game

Say what you want, but I think the two teams have/had a similar inside presence. They certainly had pretty much the same stats.

To add to this, I happened to attend the 1997 Final Four and my recollection is none of Arizona's big guys did much of anything. (I checked the stats for those two games and it turns out Bramlett and Davison combined for an average of 50.5 mpg, 9.0 ppg, 12.5 rpg, and 3.5 bpg.) Now, I realize it's a very small number of games, but compare that to our performance against UNC, where our big guys had 50 minutes, 9 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks. Again, the same. Almost exactly.

I suppose it's possible Arizona's two guys played great defense. I don't remember them standing out in that way, but it was 12 years ago. However, I would argue that between McClure, Thomas, Zoubek, and Plumlee (who combined play around the same number of minutes as Arizona's duo) we get some pretty good defense ourselves.

So, once again I conclude that we're getting pretty much the same from our 50 big man minutes as 1997 Arizona got from theirs. Obviously you can disagree if you wish, but unless you're basing your opinion on something other than the stats and watching a handful of games on TV, I'm not sure why you would.

[ice-9]

Some good points Kedsy. No doubt this Duke team is capable of making a serious run in the tourney. But like the '97 Wildcats, it'll require us a to have streak of good shooting games to do so. We're not the kind of team that can have bad nights against good competition (or against certain types of match-ups) and still win.

[pamtar]

They is good. ;)