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Diddy
02-12-2009, 01:07 PM
I know that many on this board are lamenting that UNC recruiting has surpassed Duke in recent year, and how this talent disparity is going all Billy Jack upside our heads right now. We are all concerned that Roy is really doing a number on us, and that he is just stocking the shelves at UNC like never before, and that Duke is in real trouble as a result.

Really?

The more I look at UNC recruiting, the less convinced I am that it is all skill. I personally have lamented Duke v UNC on the recruiting trail, so this is kind of a big leap for me. I will lay out my reasoning for others to weigh in on.

First and foremost is Tyler Hansborough. He has killed us, and the rest of college ball, from Day 1. Not since Tim Duncan has a kid over achieved based on his ranking to the level of actual production. Scout ranked him as the third best PG in 2005, which was an abysmal year in recruiting. UNC got a kid who is one of the all time greats. Looking at a Grant Hill or a Rasheed Wallace, you know those guys are studs.

Hansborough is UNC's Laetner, minus the Titles. He was solidly ranked. Good skills, decent athleticism, Charlie Hustle on the court. Roy was no savant here. He went after and got a player that wildly exceeded expectations. It happens.

The rest of that class of 05 was nothing special on paper. Green and Ginyard were solid wings who really expanded their games. For every 6-5ish athletic wing who grows for four years into a great player, there are 20 6-5ish wings who never do anything.

Foster underachieved immediately. He was a McD's AA pg who has turned into a solid bench player.

Now, part of the above class's success may be based on Roy's ability to develop players. But the reality is that those players exceeded all expectations, accross the board.

In the 2006 class, Wright was a stud, but he left after not really doing anything. Ellington was a top 10, or even top 5 player who has not lived up to expectations. He is a good shooter as long as his defender is lackadaisical. He is a mediocre Defender. Out of HS, his ranking was higher than G's accross the board. Now, every coach in America would take G instead.

Lawson is a stud. He has lived up to expectations in a big way. He may be one of the top 2 team running PGs in all the land. Can get to the rim at will. Not a great Defender, but he is more than capable when motivated. Thompson and Stephenson are better than advertised.

Thompson has made a huge leap in the last year. He was a crapshoot out of HS. At the time, the conventional thinking was that IF he put in a lot of work, he COULD become a solid player. This past summer he remade his body and level of conditioning a la JJ's big summer leap (Jr year, I think), turning him into a probable pro in 2 years.

This past year, Feh. Davis will be a great player. He was UNC's third option. As a Sr he was a 6-8ish athlete with OK skills. During his SR year he GREW two inches. Now he is a 6-10ish athlete with OK skills. There are a bunch of the former (Lance Thomas's basically), and not much of the latter. Zeller, who is now lamented the length and breadth of the old North State, was steadily working his way down the bench prior to his injury. He would have only played spot minutes last night, and all season long. He is a 7 fter, which is nice, but he was rail thin, allergic to contact, and an OK athlete at best.

If Larry Drew has two functioning Brain Cells, he should transfer. He has been recruited over for next year, AND the year after. In two years he will be the third string PG, at best.

As for next year's class, EH. Yes, they are currently ranked number 1. That is more to do with quantity than quality.

Henson will be a great player. For 1 year. His best basketball is 2-3 years away. Now, at 6-10 and 200ish lbs, if he adds a lot of weight this summer look out.

But UNC will lack a PG. Lawson is gonzo. Drew? Please god, let it be so.

Next year, UNC will welcome Marshall Strickland. This past summer, people touted his potetial as a PG. Well, he has turned into a shoot first combo guard. His athleticism is freaky, but his ball skills? Not so much. Nolan Smith part 2, come on down to UNC.

Leslie Macdonald is a skilled SG without top flight athleticism. Basically, a very poor man's Ellington who continues to free fall down the rankings. The Wear Twins are socal players, not from Compton (read: they're Wimps) who project as career backups. Despite their commitments, Roy went HARD after Plum and Kelly from this year's class, in the hopse that their commitments would have lead to the decommitments from the Wear Sisters.

Roy has some good recruits in the Jr class, but even they have slipped in recent months.

In the Jr Class, K has commits from players who look good. Dawkins and Barnes (please) would be phenomenal on the wings. We have a true PG, who I predict will shoot up the rankings this year now that better upperclassmen are no longer on his AAU/HS teams. Hairston has tons of potential, and Duke has two athletic, skilled Forwards comming in this year.

If, and it is a HUGE if, Wall were to commit, Duke would be back in business.

Roy has gotten absurdly lucky during a stretch whe Duke was just a absurdly unlucky.

Part of this probably has to do with evaluating players better than Duke for a few years. But only Lawson was a huge get for UNC. Wright, well, yes, but for 1 year he wouldn't have helped us anymore than them

Our own 2005 class was, for lack of a better phrase, a PROGRAM KILLLER. Lesser programs and coaching staffs would have collapsed under such a failure. Paulus, god love him, is nowhere near what a No 1 pg should be. He isn't bad, but the No 1 pg should be a stud. McBob was a dissappointment as the top PF in class. Boateng and Boykin? Huge misses. Huge. Part of that is K's fault, but these players fooled EVERYBODY. Everybody in recruiting was wrong. And everybody was wrong at a time when K had to lean more on other people's evaluations due to his Olympic Commitment. Yikes.

Lance and Zoubs aren't exactly world beaters from the following class. Solid, yes. But they were also over ranked/slowed by injuries and playing out of position.

We had six misses during a period when UNC had 4-5 kids overachieve at various levels.

Mark my words. This year, UNC's No 1 ranked class will have a similiar effect on UNC. 3 of the players lack the athleticism to succeed at this level. One, the PG(ish) is a great athlete, but nowhere near the team runner/ distributor/finisher that Lawson is. Henson is good, but he is an athletic, 6-10 player with good skills who is in love with his perimeter game. Sounds awfully familiar. Either Wright or McBob, but gone before any real good comes from him.

Times could be a changing. Long rant, I know. But food for thought on skill vs luck.

CDu
02-12-2009, 01:17 PM
I can simplify this: there's ALWAYS luck involved in recruiting. If people knew who the sure things were, it'd be a simple process for the elite programs. It's not that simple.

But I'm not really sure how you can say much negative about Williams's recruiting. He recruited consistently well at Kansas, and he's now recruiting consistently well (even better, arguably) at UNC. Luck is always a part of it, but either Roy is getting consistently lucky or he's also really good at recruiting. Perhaps he's just really good at identifying guys who will excel in his system, and getting the best of those guys. But if that's the case, that's a skill.

dukestheheat
02-12-2009, 01:30 PM
A further simplification: Roy is now the top recruiter in the ACC. We had that, and now we don't have that. We plan to get that back.

dth.

jv001
02-12-2009, 01:38 PM
I know that many on this board are lamenting that UNC recruiting has surpassed Duke in recent year, and how this talent disparity is going all Billy Jack upside our heads right now. We are all concerned that Roy is really doing a number on us, and that he is just stocking the shelves at UNC like never before, and that Duke is in real trouble as a result.

Really?

The more I look at UNC recruiting, the less convinced I am that it is all skill. I personally have lamented Duke v UNC on the recruiting trail, so this is kind of a big leap for me. I will lay out my reasoning for others to weigh in on.

First and foremost is Tyler Hansborough. He has killed us, and the rest of college ball, from Day 1. Not since Tim Duncan has a kid over achieved based on his ranking to the level of actual production. Scout ranked him as the third best PG in 2005, which was an abysmal year in recruiting. UNC got a kid who is one of the all time greats. Looking at a Grant Hill or a Rasheed Wallace, you know those guys are studs.

Hansborough is UNC's Laetner, minus the Titles. He was solidly ranked. Good skills, decent athleticism, Charlie Hustle on the court. Roy was no savant here. He went after and got a player that wildly exceeded expectations. It happens.

The rest of that class of 05 was nothing special on paper. Green and Ginyard were solid wings who really expanded their games. For every 6-5ish athletic wing who grows for four years into a great player, there are 20 6-5ish wings who never do anything.

Foster underachieved immediately. He was a McD's AA pg who has turned into a solid bench player.

Now, part of the above class's success may be based on Roy's ability to develop players. But the reality is that those players exceeded all expectations, accross the board.

In the 2006 class, Wright was a stud, but he left after not really doing anything. Ellington was a top 10, or even top 5 player who has not lived up to expectations. He is a good shooter as long as his defender is lackadaisical. He is a mediocre Defender. Out of HS, his ranking was higher than G's accross the board. Now, every coach in America would take G instead.

Lawson is a stud. He has lived up to expectations in a big way. He may be one of the top 2 team running PGs in all the land. Can get to the rim at will. Not a great Defender, but he is more than capable when motivated. Thompson and Stephenson are better than advertised.

Thompson has made a huge leap in the last year. He was a crapshoot out of HS. At the time, the conventional thinking was that IF he put in a lot of work, he COULD become a solid player. This past summer he remade his body and level of conditioning a la JJ's big summer leap (Jr year, I think), turning him into a probable pro in 2 years.

This past year, Feh. Davis will be a great player. He was UNC's third option. As a Sr he was a 6-8ish athlete with OK skills. During his SR year he GREW two inches. Now he is a 6-10ish athlete with OK skills. There are a bunch of the former (Lance Thomas's basically), and not much of the latter. Zeller, who is now lamented the length and breadth of the old North State, was steadily working his way down the bench prior to his injury. He would have only played spot minutes last night, and all season long. He is a 7 fter, which is nice, but he was rail thin, allergic to contact, and an OK athlete at best.

If Larry Drew has two functioning Brain Cells, he should transfer. He has been recruited over for next year, AND the year after. In two years he will be the third string PG, at best.

As for next year's class, EH. Yes, they are currently ranked number 1. That is more to do with quantity than quality.

Henson will be a great player. For 1 year. His best basketball is 2-3 years away. Now, at 6-10 and 200ish lbs, if he adds a lot of weight this summer look out.

But UNC will lack a PG. Lawson is gonzo. Drew? Please god, let it be so.

Next year, UNC will welcome Marshall Strickland. This past summer, people touted his potetial as a PG. Well, he has turned into a shoot first combo guard. His athleticism is freaky, but his ball skills? Not so much. Nolan Smith part 2, come on down to UNC.

Leslie Macdonald is a skilled SG without top flight athleticism. Basically, a very poor man's Ellington who continues to free fall down the rankings. The Wear Twins are socal players, not from Compton (read: they're Wimps) who project as career backups. Despite their commitments, Roy went HARD after Plum and Kelly from this year's class, in the hopse that their commitments would have lead to the decommitments from the Wear Sisters.

Roy has some good recruits in the Jr class, but even they have slipped in recent months.

In the Jr Class, K has commits from players who look good. Dawkins and Barnes (please) would be phenomenal on the wings. We have a true PG, who I predict will shoot up the rankings this year now that better upperclassmen are no longer on his AAU/HS teams. Hairston has tons of potential, and Duke has two athletic, skilled Forwards comming in this year.

If, and it is a HUGE if, Wall were to commit, Duke would be back in business.

Roy has gotten absurdly lucky during a stretch whe Duke was just a absurdly unlucky.

Part of this probably has to do with evaluating players better than Duke for a few years. But only Lawson was a huge get for UNC. Wright, well, yes, but for 1 year he wouldn't have helped us anymore than them

Our own 2005 class was, for lack of a better phrase, a PROGRAM KILLLER. Lesser programs and coaching staffs would have collapsed under such a failure. Paulus, god love him, is nowhere near what a No 1 pg should be. He isn't bad, but the No 1 pg should be a stud. McBob was a dissappointment as the top PF in class. Boateng and Boykin? Huge misses. Huge. Part of that is K's fault, but these players fooled EVERYBODY. Everybody in recruiting was wrong. And everybody was wrong at a time when K had to lean more on other people's evaluations due to his Olympic Commitment. Yikes.

Lance and Zoubs aren't exactly world beaters from the following class. Solid, yes. But they were also over ranked/slowed by injuries and playing out of position.

We had six misses during a period when UNC had 4-5 kids overachieve at various levels.

Mark my words. This year, UNC's No 1 ranked class will have a similiar effect on UNC. 3 of the players lack the athleticism to succeed at this level. One, the PG(ish) is a great athlete, but nowhere near the team runner/ distributor/finisher that Lawson is. Henson is good, but he is an athletic, 6-10 player with good skills who is in love with his perimeter game. Sounds awfully familiar. Either Wright or McBob, but gone before any real good comes from him.

Times could be a changing. Long rant, I know. But food for thought on skill vs luck.

Who was the PG ranked #3 in 05? tyler or Duncan? I didn't think they had that much skill at breaking the press. I don't know this Marshall Strickland either. I have heard of dexter strickland. You have to admit that ole roy has been a good recruiter dating back to his Kansas days. He is either a good evaluator or a good developer of talent. Since he arrived in chapel hell things have certainly changed in the ACC. Go Duke!

Tim1515
02-12-2009, 01:58 PM
I agree with a lot of this (although i think Zeller would've been and will be a great player at UNC).

Thinking back to 2005...Roy offered both McRoberts and Paulus. Had he landed those two he likely would've missed on Tyler and potentially Lawson the following year...how crazy is that...the two players who above everything else have set UNC apart the past few years.

Right now Roy is developing better offensive players and Duke better defensive players. The media and fans love offense so it seems like Roy is destroying K. Yet not only is UNC still really weak on defense but for all the accolades that Tyler gets...he's awful defensively...same can be said for Lawson, Ellington and Thompson...all who probably would've been much better defenders at Duke but maybe not as good offensively. Who knows

JDev
02-12-2009, 02:10 PM
OP, those are interesting points and food for thought. UNC has always recruited well, with a few exceptions, and are continuing that under Williams. I don't think it is a product of mass over-achievement, I think it is specifically targeted players who have mostly played well. However, that doesn't preclude Duke from success. The reasons Duke is behind right now have to do with their own circumstances, many of which you mentioned. The 2005 class was highly ranked and hasn't turned out the way virtually everyone thought/hoped it would. Some recruiting misses in recent years are showing now. Many have discussed at length Duke's issues in the post, and that is a little reflective of missing on Patterson one year, and then Monroe the next. This team would be significantly different with either of those guys. Duke has still landed many targets in that same time, which is the reason they are a good team right now. Had they of landed one of those other guys, they might be great (mere speculation obviously). They missed on Boyton from this year's class, and may miss on Wall as well, leaving the PG spot very thin in the immediate future.
One thing Duke typically does in recruiting is target specific guys and go hard after them. They often don't have what people might call "back-up plans" (i.e. - going after a highly ranked PF, but also a lesser ranked one just in case). Some lament this, but ultimately it has worked in their favor. They make a genuine investment and commitment in a player, and that usually means a lot. Duke lands more recruits than they miss on.
As I have seen many people mention in other threads is that the Duke v. UNC rivalry and supremacy runs in cycles. In the late 80's and early 90's Duke was an annual Final Four visitor and won two titles. In the mid-90's UNC was on top with the likes of Jeff McInnis, Donald Williams, Stackhouse, Wallace, Jamison, Carter, etc. In the late 90's and into this century, until about 2004, Duke was clearly on top and had unprecendented ACC success. Since then it has pretty much been UNC's time (Duke was better in 06). Duke will be back. I think the 2009 class looks good, even without Wall, when you add it to the already committed 2010 kids. Those groups should keep Duke in the mix.
All that being said, Duke is a good team right now. They just aren't quite as good as UNC. That could change as early as next year, depending on who stays and who goes from each squad.

gw67
02-12-2009, 03:39 PM
I only saw one game where he played but Zellar was definitely not working his way down the bench. He was starting ahead of Davis and appeared to have better skills. He also runs the floor very well. I will reserve judgement on next years recruits until I see them.

gw67

RelativeWays
02-12-2009, 04:02 PM
You know, out of all the players the Huckster's gotten recently, the only one he landed that I wish we had gotten instead, he no longer has, Alex Stepheson. Stepheson would have been a perfect fit at Duke, solid defensively and was really starting to develop an offensive presence last, he certainly looked a lot more competent down low than either Zoubs or LT. Yep, I would go back in time and say "Alex, ol Roy has recruited like 8 big men at the same time he recruited you. How 'bout playing for the true blue and white instead?" We'd still have PG issues but at least we'd have a solid big man.

Reddevil
02-12-2009, 04:33 PM
Sheez, these are two of the best programs in the nation, and they will both be good every year. For the past few years, UNC has been on a top 5 roll, and Duke has been on a top 10 roll with frequent visits into the stratosphere. The difference can be a hit or miss here and there. Some one mentioned the term cyclical. This is dead on. Right now they are stronger at 1 and 5, but Duke is stronger at the 2,3, and 4ish types. The 1/5 formula has been the most successful for years. If I were a stud PG or C, I would be licking my chops at joining the mix. Coach K and the staff will keep plugging, and keep Duke in the running every year. I know this program is special, and has lofty expectations, and that is a very good thing, but keep in mind that a so-called down year for Duke is a dream season for the vast majority. Even for Duke it can't just be Final Four or bust. Smell the roses - this is rare air your breathing. Everyone came back to UNC, kind of like they did at Florida a couple years ago. It rarely happens. Duke is not down at all - unc is just up right now, and it's still just February. FISHDO

FireOgilvie
02-12-2009, 04:57 PM
The difference between UNC and Duke's talent levels the past few years have been at point guard and center. Green, Ellington, Ginyard, etc. basically cancel out Henderson, Scheyer, McClure, etc. I completely agree with what Diddy said about Duke's 2005 recruiting class.

K and Roy have very different recruiting philosophies. K focuses on personality and academics to a much higher degree. I think a lot of that comes with the job at a school like Duke. UNC has chemistry problems because of clashing personalities. Given that, I still think UNC has a relatively classy program (except for Danny Green).

greybeard
02-12-2009, 05:48 PM
Diddy, wonderful piece of writing and as thorough and succinct an analysis as one could find. Not sure I agree with all of it, but, heck, I really didn't know half of it. Great read!

FireOgilvie
02-12-2009, 06:06 PM
I'd like to add that Thornton is being described by many as a "combo guard" that doesn't have "elite quickness." I haven't seen him play, so I can't say that I agree or disagree...

I've heard some good things about Kyrie Irving. I saw that watzone mentioned him as a possibility on here.

Also, I watched the Jordan Classic selection show on ESPNU the other day and one of the TV analysts said he "doesn't see Plumlee as a center."

SoCalDukeFan
02-12-2009, 06:31 PM
I know that many on this board are lamenting that UNC recruiting has surpassed Duke in recent year, and how this talent disparity is going all Billy Jack upside our heads right now. We are all concerned that Roy is really doing a number on us, and that he is just stocking the shelves at UNC like never before, and that Duke is in real trouble as a result.

Really?

The more I look at UNC recruiting, the less convinced I am that it is all skill. I personally have lamented Duke v UNC on the recruiting trail, so this is kind of a big leap for me. I will lay out my reasoning for others to weigh in on.

First and foremost is Tyler Hansborough. He has killed us, and the rest of college ball, from Day 1. Not since Tim Duncan has a kid over achieved based on his ranking to the level of actual production. Scout ranked him as the third best PG in 2005, which was an abysmal year in recruiting. UNC got a kid who is one of the all time greats. Looking at a Grant Hill or a Rasheed Wallace, you know those guys are studs.

Hansborough is UNC's Laetner, minus the Titles. He was solidly ranked. Good skills, decent athleticism, Charlie Hustle on the court. Roy was no savant here. He went after and got a player that wildly exceeded expectations. It happens.

The rest of that class of 05 was nothing special on paper. Green and Ginyard were solid wings who really expanded their games. For every 6-5ish athletic wing who grows for four years into a great player, there are 20 6-5ish wings who never do anything.

Foster underachieved immediately. He was a McD's AA pg who has turned into a solid bench player.

Now, part of the above class's success may be based on Roy's ability to develop players. But the reality is that those players exceeded all expectations, accross the board.

In the 2006 class, Wright was a stud, but he left after not really doing anything. Ellington was a top 10, or even top 5 player who has not lived up to expectations. He is a good shooter as long as his defender is lackadaisical. He is a mediocre Defender. Out of HS, his ranking was higher than G's accross the board. Now, every coach in America would take G instead.

Lawson is a stud. He has lived up to expectations in a big way. He may be one of the top 2 team running PGs in all the land. Can get to the rim at will. Not a great Defender, but he is more than capable when motivated. Thompson and Stephenson are better than advertised.

Thompson has made a huge leap in the last year. He was a crapshoot out of HS. At the time, the conventional thinking was that IF he put in a lot of work, he COULD become a solid player. This past summer he remade his body and level of conditioning a la JJ's big summer leap (Jr year, I think), turning him into a probable pro in 2 years.

This past year, Feh. Davis will be a great player. He was UNC's third option. As a Sr he was a 6-8ish athlete with OK skills. During his SR year he GREW two inches. Now he is a 6-10ish athlete with OK skills. There are a bunch of the former (Lance Thomas's basically), and not much of the latter. Zeller, who is now lamented the length and breadth of the old North State, was steadily working his way down the bench prior to his injury. He would have only played spot minutes last night, and all season long. He is a 7 fter, which is nice, but he was rail thin, allergic to contact, and an OK athlete at best.

If Larry Drew has two functioning Brain Cells, he should transfer. He has been recruited over for next year, AND the year after. In two years he will be the third string PG, at best.

As for next year's class, EH. Yes, they are currently ranked number 1. That is more to do with quantity than quality.

Henson will be a great player. For 1 year. His best basketball is 2-3 years away. Now, at 6-10 and 200ish lbs, if he adds a lot of weight this summer look out.

But UNC will lack a PG. Lawson is gonzo. Drew? Please god, let it be so.

Next year, UNC will welcome Marshall Strickland. This past summer, people touted his potetial as a PG. Well, he has turned into a shoot first combo guard. His athleticism is freaky, but his ball skills? Not so much. Nolan Smith part 2, come on down to UNC.

Leslie Macdonald is a skilled SG without top flight athleticism. Basically, a very poor man's Ellington who continues to free fall down the rankings. The Wear Twins are socal players, not from Compton (read: they're Wimps) who project as career backups. Despite their commitments, Roy went HARD after Plum and Kelly from this year's class, in the hopse that their commitments would have lead to the decommitments from the Wear Sisters.

Roy has some good recruits in the Jr class, but even they have slipped in recent months.

In the Jr Class, K has commits from players who look good. Dawkins and Barnes (please) would be phenomenal on the wings. We have a true PG, who I predict will shoot up the rankings this year now that better upperclassmen are no longer on his AAU/HS teams. Hairston has tons of potential, and Duke has two athletic, skilled Forwards comming in this year.

If, and it is a HUGE if, Wall were to commit, Duke would be back in business.

Roy has gotten absurdly lucky during a stretch whe Duke was just a absurdly unlucky.

Part of this probably has to do with evaluating players better than Duke for a few years. But only Lawson was a huge get for UNC. Wright, well, yes, but for 1 year he wouldn't have helped us anymore than them

Our own 2005 class was, for lack of a better phrase, a PROGRAM KILLLER. Lesser programs and coaching staffs would have collapsed under such a failure. Paulus, god love him, is nowhere near what a No 1 pg should be. He isn't bad, but the No 1 pg should be a stud. McBob was a dissappointment as the top PF in class. Boateng and Boykin? Huge misses. Huge. Part of that is K's fault, but these players fooled EVERYBODY. Everybody in recruiting was wrong. And everybody was wrong at a time when K had to lean more on other people's evaluations due to his Olympic Commitment. Yikes.

Lance and Zoubs aren't exactly world beaters from the following class. Solid, yes. But they were also over ranked/slowed by injuries and playing out of position.

We had six misses during a period when UNC had 4-5 kids overachieve at various levels.

Mark my words. This year, UNC's No 1 ranked class will have a similiar effect on UNC. 3 of the players lack the athleticism to succeed at this level. One, the PG(ish) is a great athlete, but nowhere near the team runner/ distributor/finisher that Lawson is. Henson is good, but he is an athletic, 6-10 player with good skills who is in love with his perimeter game. Sounds awfully familiar. Either Wright or McBob, but gone before any real good comes from him.

Times could be a changing. Long rant, I know. But food for thought on skill vs luck.

Thanks. Great Post.

In the Hansborough paragraph you say "PG" when I assume you meant "PF."

The Wear twins are playing on an undefeated team ranked number 1 in the country. I think they may be tougher than you think.

This year's UNC team is a well put together team. It has a great PG, solid inside players, strong wings. We lack the first two. Many thought that Lawson and/or Ellington and/or Hansborough would go pro and he got all 3 back.

I wonder if Roy is able to see guys who will develop better than most. Thompson is much better than many thought he would be in high school.
It might be more than luck.

SoCal

FireOgilvie
02-12-2009, 06:51 PM
The Wear twins are playing on an undefeated team ranked number 1 in the country. I think they may be tougher than you think.


SoCal

I've seen the Wears play. They do not impress me at all. UNC has a logjam at the PF position. The Wears should get out of there while they still can... they are both from Taylor King's old school. Maybe they can ask him about the transfer process.

gotham devil
02-12-2009, 06:52 PM
I know that many on this board are lamenting that UNC recruiting has surpassed Duke in recent year, and how this talent disparity is going all Billy Jack upside our heads right now. We are all concerned that Roy is really doing a number on us, and that he is just stocking the shelves at UNC like never before, and that Duke is in real trouble as a result.

Really?

The more I look at UNC recruiting, the less convinced I am that it is all skill. I personally have lamented Duke v UNC on the recruiting trail, so this is kind of a big leap for me. I will lay out my reasoning for others to weigh in on.

First and foremost is Tyler Hansborough. He has killed us, and the rest of college ball, from Day 1. Not since Tim Duncan has a kid over achieved based on his ranking to the level of actual production. Scout ranked him as the third best PG in 2005, which was an abysmal year in recruiting. UNC got a kid who is one of the all time greats. Looking at a Grant Hill or a Rasheed Wallace, you know those guys are studs.

Hansborough is UNC's Laetner, minus the Titles. He was solidly ranked. Good skills, decent athleticism, Charlie Hustle on the court. Roy was no savant here. He went after and got a player that wildly exceeded expectations. It happens.

The rest of that class of 05 was nothing special on paper. Green and Ginyard were solid wings who really expanded their games. For every 6-5ish athletic wing who grows for four years into a great player, there are 20 6-5ish wings who never do anything.

Foster underachieved immediately. He was a McD's AA pg who has turned into a solid bench player.

Now, part of the above class's success may be based on Roy's ability to develop players. But the reality is that those players exceeded all expectations, accross the board.

In the 2006 class, Wright was a stud, but he left after not really doing anything. Ellington was a top 10, or even top 5 player who has not lived up to expectations. He is a good shooter as long as his defender is lackadaisical. He is a mediocre Defender. Out of HS, his ranking was higher than G's accross the board. Now, every coach in America would take G instead.

Lawson is a stud. He has lived up to expectations in a big way. He may be one of the top 2 team running PGs in all the land. Can get to the rim at will. Not a great Defender, but he is more than capable when motivated. Thompson and Stephenson are better than advertised.

Thompson has made a huge leap in the last year. He was a crapshoot out of HS. At the time, the conventional thinking was that IF he put in a lot of work, he COULD become a solid player. This past summer he remade his body and level of conditioning a la JJ's big summer leap (Jr year, I think), turning him into a probable pro in 2 years.

This past year, Feh. Davis will be a great player. He was UNC's third option. As a Sr he was a 6-8ish athlete with OK skills. During his SR year he GREW two inches. Now he is a 6-10ish athlete with OK skills. There are a bunch of the former (Lance Thomas's basically), and not much of the latter. Zeller, who is now lamented the length and breadth of the old North State, was steadily working his way down the bench prior to his injury. He would have only played spot minutes last night, and all season long. He is a 7 fter, which is nice, but he was rail thin, allergic to contact, and an OK athlete at best.

If Larry Drew has two functioning Brain Cells, he should transfer. He has been recruited over for next year, AND the year after. In two years he will be the third string PG, at best.

As for next year's class, EH. Yes, they are currently ranked number 1. That is more to do with quantity than quality.

Henson will be a great player. For 1 year. His best basketball is 2-3 years away. Now, at 6-10 and 200ish lbs, if he adds a lot of weight this summer look out.

But UNC will lack a PG. Lawson is gonzo. Drew? Please god, let it be so.

Next year, UNC will welcome Marshall Strickland. This past summer, people touted his potetial as a PG. Well, he has turned into a shoot first combo guard. His athleticism is freaky, but his ball skills? Not so much. Nolan Smith part 2, come on down to UNC.

Leslie Macdonald is a skilled SG without top flight athleticism. Basically, a very poor man's Ellington who continues to free fall down the rankings. The Wear Twins are socal players, not from Compton (read: they're Wimps) who project as career backups. Despite their commitments, Roy went HARD after Plum and Kelly from this year's class, in the hopse that their commitments would have lead to the decommitments from the Wear Sisters.

Roy has some good recruits in the Jr class, but even they have slipped in recent months.

In the Jr Class, K has commits from players who look good. Dawkins and Barnes (please) would be phenomenal on the wings. We have a true PG, who I predict will shoot up the rankings this year now that better upperclassmen are no longer on his AAU/HS teams. Hairston has tons of potential, and Duke has two athletic, skilled Forwards comming in this year.

If, and it is a HUGE if, Wall were to commit, Duke would be back in business.

Roy has gotten absurdly lucky during a stretch whe Duke was just a absurdly unlucky.

Part of this probably has to do with evaluating players better than Duke for a few years. But only Lawson was a huge get for UNC. Wright, well, yes, but for 1 year he wouldn't have helped us anymore than them

Our own 2005 class was, for lack of a better phrase, a PROGRAM KILLLER. Lesser programs and coaching staffs would have collapsed under such a failure. Paulus, god love him, is nowhere near what a No 1 pg should be. He isn't bad, but the No 1 pg should be a stud. McBob was a dissappointment as the top PF in class. Boateng and Boykin? Huge misses. Huge. Part of that is K's fault, but these players fooled EVERYBODY. Everybody in recruiting was wrong. And everybody was wrong at a time when K had to lean more on other people's evaluations due to his Olympic Commitment. Yikes.

Lance and Zoubs aren't exactly world beaters from the following class. Solid, yes. But they were also over ranked/slowed by injuries and playing out of position.

We had six misses during a period when UNC had 4-5 kids overachieve at various levels.

Mark my words. This year, UNC's No 1 ranked class will have a similiar effect on UNC. 3 of the players lack the athleticism to succeed at this level. One, the PG(ish) is a great athlete, but nowhere near the team runner/ distributor/finisher that Lawson is. Henson is good, but he is an athletic, 6-10 player with good skills who is in love with his perimeter game. Sounds awfully familiar. Either Wright or McBob, but gone before any real good comes from him.

Times could be a changing. Long rant, I know. But food for thought on skill vs luck.

Also noteworthy is the fact that Williams and, for that matter, Calhoun (Thabeet) have benefitted enormously from simply retaining players beyond what could've been reasonably expected.

Any ardent recruiting observer would've been hardpressed to assume that Lawson [who had rumors(attendance) swirling about potentially leaving after his freshman year and ultimately declared after his sophomore year], Hansbrough [a 23 year-old potential four-time unanimous All-ACC selection], Ellington [as you mentioned, a former top 10 recruit/sharpshooter, who also tried to bolt], and even Green [who also tried to get out of Chapel Hill] would all remain in that ripoff of Columbia University blue for three plus years.

Diddy
02-12-2009, 08:35 PM
Also noteworthy is the fact that Williams and, for that matter, Calhoun (Thabeet) have benefitted enormously from simply retaining players beyond what could've been reasonably expected.

Any ardent recruiting observer would've been hardpressed to assume that Lawson [who had rumors(attendance) swirling about potentially leaving after his freshman year and ultimately declared after his sophomore year], Hansbrough [a 23 year-old potential four-time unanimous All-ACC selection], Ellington [as you mentioned, a former top 10 recruit/sharpshooter, who also tried to bolt], and even Green [who also tried to get out of Chapel Hill] would all remain in that ripoff of Columbia University blue for three plus years.

A valid pt that I kind of covered with Hans. No way a player like that stays four years in most circumstances. Ellington and Lawson were whipped back to UNC after an awful end to the season and summer last year.

As for the Wear Twins being on an undefeated team? It means nothing. That team is loaded. Virtually every one of their players will play at a major college in some sport (some are Football studs). Think Oak Hill, but with a much less rigorous schedule.

And just as an aside, the kids from that SoCal private school league are a bunch of girls. They hate contact. Apparantly you aren't even allowed to blow on those kids without it being a foul.

They will be solid college players. Somewhere between a Thompson and a Lance Thomas, at a guess. But not stars. Only Henson in the next year's class will be. The rest are juuuuust good enough to scare off other top players.

Dopeshop
02-13-2009, 02:26 PM
Thanks for the grounded and thoughtful comments.The absence of quality inside play and a first rate point guard are are valid concerns and some pespective on how we got here (especially visavis The Heels )----

CameronCrazy'11
02-13-2009, 02:31 PM
We really had a terrible string of luck with big men from the '05 and '06 classes. McRoberts, Boykin, and Boateng all bail, and any of these guys would probably be getting serious minutes in the post right now. Thomas and Zoubek turn out to be not quite as good as expected. There are probably 10-12 guys on other ACC teams who would be playing 25-30 minutes at Center at Duke, even with all the players we currently have on the roster. The surprise is really how well we've managed to do even with all that.

Meanwhile Carolina got a lot of really lucky breaks. Hansbrough is universally ranked lower than McRoberts coming out of high school, yet we all know who got the better end of that deal.

Diddy
02-13-2009, 02:47 PM
We really had a terrible string of luck with big men from the '05 and '06 classes. McRoberts, Boykin, and Boateng all bail, and any of these guys would probably be getting serious minutes in the post right now. Thomas and Zoubek turn out to be not quite as good as expected. There are probably 10-12 guys on other ACC teams who would be playing 25-30 minutes at Center at Duke, even with all the players we currently have on the roster. The surprise is really how well we've managed to do even with all that.

Meanwhile Carolina got a lot of really lucky breaks. Hansbrough is universally ranked lower than McRoberts coming out of high school, yet we all know who got the better end of that deal.

This was the succinct version of my post. UNC got really lucky at a time when we got really unlucky. It happens.

bdh21
02-13-2009, 05:26 PM
I don't know this Marshall Strickland either. I have heard of dexter strickland.

I think he's a chimera of Dexter Strickland (2009, SG) and Kendall Marshall (2010, PG). I know Roy is a good recruiter, but cloning hybrids must be some sort of NCAA violation.

Devilsfan
02-13-2009, 09:28 PM
But finally they are back recruiting with a vengence. Starting in 2010, better late than never. We (fans) just have to be patient and hope one of the 2008 or 2009 recruits will turn out to be an ACC caliber talent.

jws
02-13-2009, 11:40 PM
Diddy, in your "Marshall Strickland" comment, were you talking about Dexter Strickland, or Kendall Marshall?

Dexter Strickland is a shooting guard who plays for St. Patrick HS in New Jersey. He'll be coming to UNC next year and he's the real deal offensively and with some added weight can be an excellent defender as well.

Kendall Marshall is a combo-guard who plays for Bishop O'Connell HS in Alexandria, VA, and he's only a junior. He played point guard last year and is playing shooting guard this year, but I think his future at Carolina is as a PG. He dribbles with his head up, sees the floor extremely well and he has that knack all great PGs have of getting the ball where it needs to go, when it needs to go there. He's a good but not great shooter and he's certainly not as quick or as fast as Lawson, but then who is?