Did this guy watch the same Mcroberts as I did?

[yancem]

I was just poking around Dukeupadate.com and came across this article:

http://www.hoopsvibe.com/nba/nba-draft/nba-draft-news/josh-mcroberts-robs-himself-ar42080.html

He makes several valid points and I agree that McRoberts could benfit from another season at Duke but saying "Josh also has some holes in his game, like defense he really needs to improve on that, and he is a very average rebounder, who doesn’t always play well vs big men. He doesn’t show alot of effort to box out. Josh isn’t a consistent scorer, he can mentally drift off during the game at times, he doesn’t like to make too much contact on the floor. Josh also has an Antonie Walker mentality when it comes to three pointers, he just wants to jack them up, even though he’s not very good at it." seems a little off to me.

McRoberts was one of our better defenders (although late in the season there seemed to be a lot of confusion with switches) and averaged 2.5 blocks a game. He also averaged just under 8 rebounds a game which seems pretty decent to me and as for the Walker comparison, he only took 23 3 point shots this season and I'm pretty sure at least a few of them were end of shot clock heaves.

[mjones723]

He led the Atlantic Coast Conference in rebounding for christ sake. How do these people get these jobs?

[Duke15304]

the way the media talks it sounded like hansborugh averaged like 10 more rebounds then anybody else

[Wander]

He led the Atlantic Coast Conference in rebounding for christ sake.

No, he didn't.

I have a feeling that losing McRoberts could be addition by subtraction in the long run - not immediately though.

[Bob Green]

He makes several valid points and I agree that McRoberts could benfit from another season at Duke but saying "Josh also has some holes in his game, like defense he really needs to improve on that, and he is a very average rebounder, who doesn’t always play well vs big men. He doesn’t show alot of effort to box out. Josh isn’t a consistent scorer, he can mentally drift off during the game at times, he doesn’t like to make too much contact on the floor. Josh also has an Antonie Walker mentality when it comes to three pointers, he just wants to jack them up, even though he’s not very good at it." seems a little off to me.



The following points are completely wrong:

1. "He is a very average rebounder."
2. "...when it comes to three pointers, he just wants to jack them up..."

The following point is correct:

1. "Josh isn't a consistent scorer, he can mentally drift off during the game at times, he doesn't like to make too much contact on the floor."

IMO, Josh's struggles this season were a side affect of his back surgery during the off-season. Josh will address his shortcomings over the summer and develop into a solid player in the NBA. He has a lot of talent and a ton of potential.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[Wander]

IMO, Josh's struggles this season were a side affect of his back surgery during the off-season.

What makes you think this? It sounds like an excuse to me. If you have real reasons though, I'm definately listening.

[Bob Green]

What makes you think this? It sounds like an excuse to me. If you have real reasons though, I'm definately listening.

I believe the back surgery impacted Josh's ability to address his game's shortcomings, which were identified during his Freshman season. His focus was on recovering from surgery so he could not work on his midrange jumper or develop a consistent move for the low post. I also believe the surgery effected his jumping ability and confidence to bang away inside.

I am the last person who would be making excuses for Josh, but I believe in addressing facts. The fact is that Josh spent his "summer vacation" recovering from surgery, instead of working on his game.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[WeepingThomasHill]

Bob Green wrote:

"Josh will address his shortcomings over the summer and develop into a solid player in the NBA. He has a lot of talent and a ton of potential."

I don't think McRoberts will get a second contract - he will be exposed quickly and ruthlessly in the NBA. Hope he saves his money. He is not going to be another Webber, as he does not have CWebb's sophisticated offensive game (the vintage CWebb, not the current version). Who is he going to guard? Power forwards like Brand will destroy him. Garnett? Boozer? Bosh? Gasol? Al Jefferson? Jermaine O'Neal? Stoudamire? They will manhandle McRoberts in the post. I don't think McRobert's line drive hooks will scare anyone.

[dukie8]

I believe the back surgery impacted Josh's ability to address his game's shortcomings, which were identified during his Freshman season. His focus was on recovering from surgery so he could not work on his midrange jumper or develop a consistent move for the low post. I also believe the surgery effected his jumping ability and confidence to bang away inside.

I am the last person who would be making excuses for Josh, but I believe in addressing facts. The fact is that Josh spent his "summer vacation" recovering from surgery, instead of working on his game.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

i completely disagree. back surgery or no back surgery anything other than a dunk was pure brutality. there have been few players at duke with such a poor shot and his back surgery cannot possibly be the root cause of that. if he had even the slightest touch to his shot, the uva game would have been a win. i would be curious to see what his ppg were if you took out his dunks (which were awesome).

i agree with the other poster that he isn't going to get another contract. hansbrough ate him up. imagine what oden or durant would have done (and that is the type of player he will be facing every night in the nba). he was very fortunate that the acc had another off year and the better players were mostly guards. va tech, uva and bc had woeful front lines and were led by their guards (dudley was more a 3). i know that shav has figured out how to survive in the nba but he very much is the exception.

[Bob Green]

I stated that Josh would develop into a solid player. I did not say he would be an immediate impact player. Josh's game has some holes that he must address. IMO, a reliable midrange jumper should be priority # 1. Moreover, I agree with you that his line drive jump hook will not scare anyone. But, he is young and there is time for him to learn to shoot the jump hook with some arc and to develop a couple of low post moves.

My basic believe is that Josh is much, much, much better than he showed during his two years at Duke. For whatever reason: injury, team chemistry, coaching philosophy, desire, ... he did not blossom into the dominate offensive player we all expected him to be.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[dukie8]

I stated that Josh would develop into a solid player. I did not say he would be an immediate impact player. Josh's game has some holes that he must address. IMO, a reliable midrange jumper should be priority # 1. Moreover, I agree with you that his line drive jump hook will not scare anyone. But, he is young and there is time for him to learn to shoot the jump hook with some arc and to develop a couple of low post moves.

My basic believe is that Josh is much, much, much better than he showed during his two years at Duke. For whatever reason: injury, team chemistry, coaching philosophy, desire, ... he did not blossom into the dominate offensive player we all expected him to be.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

what makes you think that he is better than what he showed in 2 years at duke playing against other guys his age on national tv every week? clips of what you saw him do in high school against 6' suburban guys? it's not like the nba is full of 30 year old players as it is a VERY young league and he is going to be playing against a lot of guys close to him in age. the league has very little room for guys with absolutely no outside shot and a horribly poor shot on anything other than a dunk.

[Bob Green]

what makes you think that he is better than what he showed in 2 years at duke playing against other guys his age on national tv every week? clips of what you saw him do in high school against 6' suburban guys? it's not like the nba is full of 30 year old players as it is a VERY young league and he is going to be playing against a lot of guys close to him in age. the league has very little room for guys with absolutely no outside shot and a horribly poor shot on anything other than a dunk.

I stick with my original statement that Josh was setback by the off season back surgery. That is my core point. He could not work on his offensive game over the summer between his Freshman and Sophomore years. The surgery affected his jumping ability and willingness to bang inside. His confidence was down and frustration set in.

As far as watching him in clips against 6' suburban guys, I have not watched any clips of Josh's high school performances. Searching for film clips on the Internet is a relatively new hobby for me so I've seen clips of Singler, Smith, & Taylor, but none of Josh.

I'm not sure what a 6' suburban guy is, but it sounds like a new euphemism for white and slow, or maybe, white and short.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[mgtr]

I certainly have no ill will towards McBob, for he made a solid contibution in his two years at Duke, but I don't see exactly where he will fit in at the NBA level. As others have stated, he better save his money, since he won't get a second shot. Plus, with the Florida players coming out along with hotshot freshmen such as Durant, he may not be drafted all that high.

[b&l]

Just one of those subjective feely things while watching Duke games. Josh is fighting a demon, and a ton of anger. Logic might say unresolved emotions regardings the divorce of his parents? Who knows? But unlike a Brand or Deng who had their lives sorted out and sported the maturity of 30 year olds when they left Duke, Josh has a lot of personal sorting out to do. He could have used one or two more years at Duke to give himself space and time to do that. One can only hope he doesn't get drawn to self-destructive behavior, and have not enough safety net around him. Can't shake off memories of ex-Duke stars such as Jay Williams or Bobby Hurley. The NBA is a grind with little sympathy for those who are sometimes quite fragile.

[dukelifer]

I certainly have no ill will towards McBob, for he made a solid contibution in his two years at Duke, but I don't see exactly where he will fit in at the NBA level. As others have stated, he better save his money, since he won't get a second shot. Plus, with the Florida players coming out along with hotshot freshmen such as Durant, he may not be drafted all that high.
McBob does not want to be in college- so he will test his ability in the NBA. He may not make it like many before him- or he may surprise. You never know. I remember some NBA and DBR experts say that Carlos Boozer was too small and too slow/lumbering to play in the NBA when he left early- well how did that turn out? I remember everyone thinking Dun might be the next Larry Bird. Everyone though Shav would be selling insurance by now- but he somehow got a contract and some consideration. No one knows. Josh is taking his shot. Now the only issue is how high he will be drafted and thus how much he plays. I don't think he will slip to the second round- but he could be an end of the first round pick. The reality of the NBA will hit him very soon- but some players surprise. Some player's games are much better suited to the NBA.

[BCGroup]

Shavlik Randolph.

Just read this thread, and can't help but remember what folks said about Shav, then he did get a contract, and he was somewhat successful before his injury. I realized a while back that the NBA doesn't give contracts based totally on quality, sometimes they give a contract for height, potential, maybe even eye color--who knows.

[dukie8]

McBob does not want to be in college- so he will test his ability in the NBA. He may not make it like many before him- or he may surprise. You never know. I remember some NBA and DBR experts say that Carlos Boozer was too small and too slow/lumbering to play in the NBA when he left early- well how did that turn out? I remember everyone thinking Dun might be the next Larry Bird. Everyone though Shav would be selling insurance by now- but he somehow got a contract and some consideration. No one knows. Josh is taking his shot. Now the only issue is how high he will be drafted and thus how much he plays. I don't think he will slip to the second round- but he could be an end of the first round pick. The reality of the NBA will hit him very soon- but some players surprise. Some player's games are much better suited to the NBA.

how many 6'10" guys are in the nba who cannot shoot even a 5 footer?

[JasonEvans]

how many 6'10" guys are in the nba who cannot shoot even a 5 footer?

And how many 6-10 guys are there who can run the floor, handle the ball, and pass like Josh?

It is a heck of a lot easier to learn to shoot a close-range shot than it is to develop the kind of ball-skills Josh has.

I am not saying he is ever going to be an all-star, but Josh McRoberts will stick around the NBA for a while and will be a significant player (probably as a 6th-man type) in the league. I think his game suits the open-floor NBA style a lot more than it did college play.

-Jason "teams that move the ball around and value passing, like the Jazz, Suns, Pistons, Bulls, and Nets, would be a great home for Josh" Evans

[dukie8]

And how many 6-10 guys are there who can run the floor, handle the ball, and pass like Josh?

It is a heck of a lot easier to learn to shoot a close-range shot than it is to develop the kind of ball-skills Josh has.

I am not saying he is ever going to be an all-star, but Josh McRoberts will stick around the NBA for a while and will be a significant player (probably as a 6th-man type) in the league. I think his game suits the open-floor NBA style a lot more than it did college play.

-Jason "teams that move the ball around and value passing, like the Jazz, Suns, Pistons, Bulls, and Nets, would be a great home for Josh" Evans

a lot of guys can run, handle and pass like josh (hello nowitzki, duncan, and lebron) and ALL of them can shoot a lot more than dunks. if it were so easy for him to develop a close-range shot, then he would have done it by now after 2 years at duke. moreover, most of the guys in the nba -- particularly the ones he will face -- can shoot a lot further out than 5 feet. again, how many guys in the nba cannot shoot anything other than a dunk? if he couldn't hit those shots with guys like cain on him in college, how in the world is he going to hit them in the nba with someone like brand on him? i'd like to see him prove everyone wrong but i just don't see him making it. shav very much was more the exception than the general rule. for every shav, there probably are 50 dawkins or amakers who have great skills but who cannot make it.

[yancem]

There has been a lot talk about Josh's lack of an outside shot. When I was reading about him coming out of highschool people were saying that he had a solid midrange game and a shot and that with a little more work could extend his range out to the 3 point line. He also looked pretty good making a couple of 3's in the McD game so I wonder if Bob Green may have point about his back surgery. A stiffer back could effect his shot meaning that he would have to retool it.

There were a couple of time (granted not many) the he caught the ball and shot the 10-12 footer without hesitation and the shots looked fine. This makes me wonder if he somehow has developed a mental block. 90% of the time he took a shot from farther than 5 feet he hesitated which is almost aways a death nail.

Interesting aside, it seems to be a trend that Duke had recuited several players with a reputation for being good shooters then they get to campus there shot leaves them. Nick Horvath, Chris Duhon and Chris Burgess imediately come to mind. Anyone else notice that?

[dukie8]

And how many 6-10 guys are there who can run the floor, handle the ball, and pass like Josh?

It is a heck of a lot easier to learn to shoot a close-range shot than it is to develop the kind of ball-skills Josh has.

I am not saying he is ever going to be an all-star, but Josh McRoberts will stick around the NBA for a while and will be a significant player (probably as a 6th-man type) in the league. I think his game suits the open-floor NBA style a lot more than it did college play.

-Jason "teams that move the ball around and value passing, like the Jazz, Suns, Pistons, Bulls, and Nets, would be a great home for Josh" Evans

i also think that his ball handling skills are very over-rated in terms of value to a basketball team. the idea that people often posted on here that he should have been bringing the ball up this year because he had such great dribbling skills is crazy. yes, compared to other 6'10" guys, he has good dribbling skills, but compared to any guard, he isn't even in the same time zone. he can't take his man off the dribble and score -- which is what is valued most in the nba -- so do you really think that nba teams are salivating over his behind-the-back midcourt move? nba teams value his dribbling skills about as much as nfl teams value a wr who can throw a tight spiral.

[dukie8]

There has been a lot talk about Josh's lack of an outside shot. When I was reading about him coming out of highschool people were saying that he had a solid midrange game and a shot and that with a little more work could extend his range out to the 3 point line. He also looked pretty good making a couple of 3's in the McD game so I wonder if Bob Green may have point about his back surgery. A stiffer back could effect his shot meaning that he would have to retool it.

There were a couple of time (granted not many) the he caught the ball and shot the 10-12 footer without hesitation and the shots looked fine. This makes me wonder if he somehow has developed a mental block. 90% of the time he took a shot from farther than 5 feet he hesitated which is almost aways a death nail.

Interesting aside, it seems to be a trend that Duke had recuited several players with a reputation for being good shooters then they get to campus there shot leaves them. Nick Horvath, Chris Duhon and Chris Burgess imediately come to mind. Anyone else notice that?

everyone on duke, including the bench guys, can drill 3-pointers all day long with nobody guarding them. i remember watching tony moore drill 3 after 3 after 3 in a pick-up game in card. it's when everything speeds up in college and the defense gets bigger and better that guys then starting having difficulty hitting shots. i don't ever recall josh "looking fine" on any shot this year. the shot may have gone in, but it still looked like a brick. he also couldn't/wouldn't shoot his freshman year so it's not like he shot well in college before surgery and then didn't afterward.

[rsvman]

....which is almost aways a death nail.

Maybe I shouldn't make usage corrections on a basketball forum, but this particular error really made me laugh. My wife has a habit of messing up colloquialisms, too. For example, she says, "...nip it in the butt," which always makes me laugh.

The word you're looking for is "knell," not "nail." "Knell" means to ring in a slow, solemn way, and the saying refers to the ancient practice of ringing a bell to signify someone's death.

Sorry for the interruption. Carry on with your discussion about whether Josh will make it in the NBA.

[dukie8]

Deleted.

thanks for the wonderfully profound post. i thought that we are supposed to refrain from completely vacuous posts that also contain direct insults and swear words?

[johnnydakota]

thanks for the wonderfully profound post. i thought that we are supposed to refrain from completely vacuous posts that also contain direct insults and swear words?
Too many holes in what you said to cover it all. Suffice to say that when you unfavorably compare someone to other players to make them look bad, you might not want to choose three first team all-nba players. Golly, if Josh doesn't measure up to Nowitzki, Duncan, or James he must be terrible. This isn't even worth my time. Oh, and if crap is too offensive, how's "dodo"?

[Johnboy]

shav very much was more the exception than the general rule. for every shav, there probably are 50 dawkins or amakers who have great skills but who cannot make it.

Dawkins had a nine year career in which he certainly made in excess of $10,000,000. Here's a link (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dawkijo01.html) where it's estimated he made closer to $13M. He made it in the NBA.

[JasonEvans]

Dawkins had a nine year career in which he certainly made in excess of $10,000,000. Here's a link (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dawkijo01.html) where it's estimated he made closer to $13M. He made it in the NBA.

You beat me to it Johnboy. When Dukie8 pulled out Dawkins as an example of a guy who did not make it I almost fell over laughing.

I guess 15ppg and 7 assists per game is not making it. Oh well.

And when he pionts out that 3 of the best players in the NBA have similar skills to Josh... is he actually using that as an argument against Josh's NBA success? Pretty amusing.

Look, the truth is opinions diifer on Josh. Right now he looks to be a mid-late first round pick. Kids taken in that range generally have no more than a 50-50 shot at being a significant contributor to the team that drafts them. Some of us feel he will be a bust and will be out of the league in 3 years. Some of us feel he will find success and be a good, but not great player who will stick around the league for a half-dozen or more years.

Only time will tell... and it will likely take longer than his first season to find out.

-Jason "that last line is my way of saying, lets calm this debate down a bit-- no one can win right now" Evans

[johnnydakota]

You beat me to it Johnboy. When Dukie8 pulled out Dawkins as an example of a guy who did not make it I almost fell over laughing.

I guess 15ppg and 7 assists per game is not making it. Oh well.

And when he pionts out that 3 of the best players in the NBA have similar skills to Josh... is he actually using that as an argument against Josh's NBA success? Pretty amusing.

Look, the truth is opinions diifer on Josh. Right now he looks to be a mid-late first round pick. Kids taken in that range generally have no more than a 50-50 shot at being a significant contributor to the team that drafts them. Some of us feel he will be a bust and will be out of the league in 3 years. Some of us feel he will find success and be a good, but not great player who will stick around the league for a half-dozen or more years.

Only time will tell... and it will likely take longer than his first season to find out.

-Jason "that last line is my way of saying, lets calm this debate down a bit-- no one can win right now" Evans

I agree, for the most part, but 2 things come to my mind. Josh takes waaay to much criticism because he played and Duke and was the popular scapegoat for spoiled fans (read: Dukie8). In reality, he lead a successful season on a team with 1 scholly senior/junior by being the only player in America with 13 pts, 7.5 reb, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 blocks. My other issue is Noah had inferior numbers, was surrounded by veteran NBA talent and scorers, but is touted as a top 5 pick. I hear he can't score but can jump and is 6'11". Josh has far better ball skills and can jump at 6'11". I agree it will take time for him to develop and wish he'd stayed, but this doesn't mean he sucks and won't turn into a solid pro.

[dukeENG2003]

Oh, and if crap is too offensive, how's "dodo"?

I believe you are looking for the word "doo-doo", dodo is an extinct bird.

And as far as Josh, don't underestimate how much he will be able to develop his game and particularly his jump shot once basketball becomes his job, and that troublesome "student" part of being a student athlete is gone. His form isn't terrible, he's just inconsistent on it. Being a Duke student can take a significant amount of time, even if you ARE just trying to get good enough grades to remain eligible. . .

[ikiru36]

a lot of guys can run, handle and pass like josh (hello nowitzki, duncan, and lebron) and ALL of them can shoot a lot more than dunks. if it were so easy for him to develop a close-range shot, then he would have done it by now after 2 years at duke. moreover, most of the guys in the nba -- particularly the ones he will face -- can shoot a lot further out than 5 feet. again, how many guys in the nba cannot shoot anything other than a dunk? if he couldn't hit those shots with guys like cain on him in college, how in the world is he going to hit them in the nba with someone like brand on him? i'd like to see him prove everyone wrong but i just don't see him making it. shav very much was more the exception than the general rule. for every shav, there probably are 50 dawkins or amakers who have great skills but who cannot make it.

It is difficult to predict how Josh will do in the NBA, but he unquestionably has an intriguing mix of size (including wingspan and hand size) and skills (btw, can't remember the last time I saw Duncan or Nowitzki dribble from end to end in transition, let alone while going between their legs to get past a defender), and his youth should not be forgotten. Josh was a young prospect, relatively, having just turned 20 years old about a month ago (by comparison, only 8 of the other listed 1st rounders on Draft Express are younger than Josh). The scouts know this and, in conjunction with typical recovery time from back surgery (over a year until full strength/mobility is typically regained-i think), still project him with significant potential.

And while his shooting stroke this year was inconsistent, and downright ugly/awkward at times, prior to his surgery (HS and frosh year) he had displayed a 3 pt. range, and generally good touch (though never was an outstanding FT shooter). He shot over 60% from the field his frosh year and over 38% from 3pt. range. Sure, having Shelden around helped with the former, and he didn't take a lot of the latter, but those are still impressive percentages for anyone playing starter's minutes.

To me, the oddest thing about Josh's game this year was his seeming concern with avoiding contact (especially given his otherwise passionate nature). To whatever extent this related to a fear/concern about his back, and was more mental than physical, one could immediately project a possible dramatic improvement in his entire game once it is addressed. If Josh continues to shy away from contact, he may not develop into more than a journeyman, but should he continue to develop strength (which 20 year olds tend to do, sometimes dramatically) and gets his confidence and aggressiveness back, he has the skills to potentially be an all-star within 5 years. He should, and hopefully will, be drafted accordingly.

I think that, had Josh stayed (assuming he hasn't burned a lot of bridges with his teammates due to his less than stellar attitude at times), he might've been a legitimate All-American on a team vying for a National Championship, with a chance to earn a Top 5 draft position. Nevertheless, were he to emulate this year's performance (tantalizing in moments, but unable to ever put it all together), his stock would definitely drop further as he would no longer have the potential (and valid, if true) excuse of his back injury and his youth. If someone gets to draft Josh outside of the lottery, by any normal standards (this is a particularly deep draft, if those expected all come out), they are getting a steal in terms of potential.

Best to you, Josh!!!!!!

Go Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Devils!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Indoor66]

Maybe I shouldn't make usage corrections on a basketball forum, but this particular error really made me laugh. My wife has a habit of messing up colloquialisms, too. For example, she says, "...nip it in the butt," which always makes me laugh.

The word you're looking for is "knell," not "nail." "Knell" means to ring in a slow, solemn way, and the saying refers to the ancient practice of ringing a bell to signify someone's death.

Sorry for the interruption. Carry on with your discussion about whether Josh will make it in the NBA.

Thanks rsv. I was about to post the same. Also one of my pet peeves.

[johnnydakota]

I believe you are looking for the word "doo-doo", dodo is an extinct bird.

And as far as Josh, don't underestimate how much he will be able to develop his game and particularly his jump shot once basketball becomes his job, and that troublesome "student" part of being a student athlete is gone. His form isn't terrible, he's just inconsistent on it. Being a Duke student can take a significant amount of time, even if you ARE just trying to get good enough grades to remain eligible. . .

LOL, yes that is definitely the word I was looking for, (and a dodo can also mean a stupid person). Your other points are equally accurate. Ikiru36, that was an excellent post as well. I really hope Josh ends up in a good situation where he can develop his scoring more and contribute all the positives he already brings to the table. I feel stronly that he will succeed and be a player Duke fans can be proud to claim as one of their own.

[yancem]

Maybe I shouldn't make usage corrections on a basketball forum, but this particular error really made me laugh. My wife has a habit of messing up colloquialisms, too. For example, she says, "...nip it in the butt," which always makes me laugh.

The word you're looking for is "knell," not "nail." "Knell" means to ring in a slow, solemn way, and the saying refers to the ancient practice of ringing a bell to signify someone's death.

Sorry for the interruption. Carry on with your discussion about whether Josh will make it in the NBA.

Thanks for the correction. My daughter has chicken pox and I haven't slept much the past few nights. My brain must have been sleeping when I made my post.

[cato]

a lot of guys can run, handle and pass like josh (hello nowitzki, duncan, and lebron) and ALL of them can shoot a lot more than dunks.

A lot of guys? In support, you name 3 of the best players in the NBA? Name some more if there are so many. If not, I don't know who you think will beat out Josh for playing time.

[cato]

I don't think McRoberts will get a second contract - he will be exposed quickly and ruthlessly in the NBA.

Wanna bet? Sure, we have to wait a few years to settle it, but I'm game.


Who is he going to guard? Power forwards like Brand will destroy him. Garnett? Boozer? Bosh? Gasol? Al Jefferson? Jermaine O'Neal? Stoudamire? They will manhandle McRoberts in the post. I don't think McRobert's line drive hooks will scare anyone.

You'll note that those guys put up lots of points against everyone in the NBA. I predict that Josh will have about as good success against them as other 4s have.

[WeepingThomasHill]

Cato wrote:

"Wanna bet? Sure, we have to wait a few years to settle it, but I'm game."

Don't waste your money, Cato. Buy a Scheyer jersey instead.

Look Cato, I was disappointed that McRoberts left, because I think with a few more years, he would be a great college player. He had a great handle and nice court vision. He is a guy that should have stayed to improve his all-around game, and then go into the pros as a polished product. I think he would have then had a nice career.

He is clearly more suited to a complementary role than a starring role. He did not want to be our leader (in any sense of the word) this season. His offensive game is limited to the uncontested dunk. He does not have a reliable jump shot from any spot on the court. He had no post moves and was out of position on defense frequently. He did not have a consistent face-up move that worked - his awful hook shot and turnaround off glass shots were usually bricks. His touch around the rim was more Matt Christansen than Christian Laettner. While his court vision and dribbling skills were great, and certainly helpful in breaking the press, he made lots of poor decisions while trying to do too much.

"You'll note that those guys put up lots of points against everyone in the NBA. I predict that Josh will have about as good success against them as other 4s have."

Let's revisit this issue next season. I'll gladly admit I am wrong when I see McRoberts "have success" against any of the guys in that list.

[jma4life]

I really believe that McRoberts will be a solid pro. First of all, a lot of Duke players have a history of wildly outperforming expectations. Duhon, Ewing and Boozer were all taken second round. Shav wasn't even drafted and prior to his injury, he was shocking even his most ardent Duke supporters, let alone the rest of the basketball pundits.

Also, as others have mentioned, McRoberts is not even a year removed from a major back surgery. Even if he does not physically improve, mentally, there is a good chance that he will gain more confidence in the back which is really important.

Finally, I really believe that Josh is more suited as a non go-to-guy. In the NBA, Josh will never have to worry about being the man. He'll be able to get his garbage points, set up other guys on the team, etc. If he can just get a 15 foot jump shot (and assuming he is not hampered by back injuries), I really believe Josh can be an effective pro.

[cato]

Cato wrote:

"Wanna bet? Sure, we have to wait a few years to settle it, but I'm game."

Don't waste your money, Cato. Buy a Scheyer jersey instead.

Oh, I wasn't wagering money. I just want to hold you to your statement that he's not going to get a second contract. Or are you backing off that statement?



Look Cato, I was disappointed that McRoberts left, because I think with a few more years, he would be a great college player. He had a great handle and nice court vision. He is a guy that should have stayed to improve his all-around game, and then go into the pros as a polished product. I think he would have then had a nice career.

All nice thoughts; nothing to do with his pro potential.


He is clearly more suited to a complementary role than a starring role. He did not want to be our leader (in any sense of the word) this season. His offensive game is limited to the uncontested dunk. He does not have a reliable jump shot from any spot on the court. He had no post moves and was out of position on defense frequently. He did not have a consistent face-up move that worked - his awful hook shot and turnaround off glass shots were usually bricks. His touch around the rim was more Matt Christansen than Christian Laettner. While his court vision and dribbling skills were great, and certainly helpful in breaking the press, he made lots of poor decisions while trying to do too much.

I will agree that he will not be a star. From there, I think your emotions are coloring your analysis. He is athletic, has a good handle and passes very well. I disagree that he was out of position on defense frequently. You point out a bunch of reasons why he was not in a position to carry the offensive load on this Duke team. Fine. I don't think that's what he'll be asked to do in the pros. Instead, I think he would provide valuable minutes for an up-tempo, where his vision, passing and handle will all prove very valuable.


"You'll note that those guys put up lots of points against everyone in the NBA. I predict that Josh will have about as good success against them as other 4s have."

Let's revisit this issue next season. I'll gladly admit I am wrong when I see McRoberts "have success" against any of the guys in that list.

Geez, if you're going to use quotes, why don't you quote my actual words? My point is that you listed a whole bunch of players that abuse defenders all the time. I anticipate McRoberts will be able to hold his own. BTW, I don't think it will be next year -- I think it will be some time during his second contract.

[smvalkyries]

I have read much about Josh's shortcomings and dubious future as a pro but it appears to me that everyone is viewing the situation solely from their own pro Duke viewpoint. If every criticism is true Josh made the best decision for himself by going out now while he can still capitalize on the market value of his potential and not have his market value eroded by his future performance. I honestly don't know how good McRoberts can really be in the pros but I do believe that the dollars placed on potential far exceed the dollars earned by performance and therefore Josh will probably earn a lot more by going out now that by waiting and going out two years from now. I say this despite the fact that i have little doubt that Josh would be a much better player two yeras from now had he stayed and learned from Coach K rather than sitting on an NBA bench for two years. In any event going pro is certainly the safer economic alternative for him. I guess it all really depends on how "great" a player Josh really is. It's an odd conundrum where the better he is the more he stands to gain by staying in college but the more flaws he has the better off he is going pro while the flaws are still categorizred as fixable with maturity?

[johnnydakota]

You need to look over some NBA rosters a little to see that Josh will be fine. He will be a solid defender, a huge asset with his passing and ball handling, and I believe will develop into a serviceable scorer. He does need to improve, but because he chose to continue to do so in the NBA rather than at Duke hardly gives you the justification to say what you did.

[jma4life]

Why is it that a guy will develop better at Duke than in the pros? In my opinion, the only way in which someone really develops much better in college than sitting on the bench is in the department of intangibles such as leadership. Leading a Duke team is truly an experience that one can not get by sitting on a bench.

However in terms of skills, what is it about Duke or any college that is so much better than the NBA. First of all, in the NBA you are a full time basketball player. Instead of spending time on school work or whatever, you are lifting weights, and doing more skills type things in the NBA.

Secondly, as great as college facilities/trainers are, you can be sure that in the NBA they have the best weight trainers etc, in addition to probably providing players with nutritionists, so physically, being in the league is probably a net positive.

Also, I know game experience is optimal but getting to go up against pros in practice is probably as if not more valuable in terms of development than putting up say, 22 points against a team like VCU for Josh. People always tout Duke's surplus of talent as providing great development in practice. Well, that should be even more of a factor in the league.

Now I should make clear that for certain guys, developing in college is certainly highly important. But there is a point when the development one can achieve in college is fulfilled and further improvements will only come from the NBA.

I am not stating that Josh is at that point, but it always bothers me when people imply that ALL players are better served playing in college than sitting on a bench in the NBA. For Will Avery, he would've been better in college. Shav on the other hand, probably was right in deciding to "sit on the bench."

[Saratoga2]

You just dig deeper and deeper. You don't hope you're wrong, and your tone gives you away. Did you have a nasty grocery store experience? What has Josh done to you to warrant this? You need to look over some NBA rosters a little to see that Josh will be fine. He will be a solid defender, a huge asset with his passing and ball handling, and I believe will develop into a serviceable scorer. He does need to improve, but because he chose to continue to do so in the NBA rather than at Duke hardly gives you the justification to say what you did.

I'm having trouble having messages allowed in, probably due to some software glitch. I am using Microsoft Vista and maybe the protection is what is causing the problem. Anyway, I am with you. McRoberts was our best player this year. He was a very good defender, rebounded well, handled the ball and passed well and helped relieve pressure when we were pressed. He did get points, but we know his mid range shot was not there or used much. He also needed to improve his touch inside. I too think he will develop in those areas and will also have a long and solid career in the NBA. Probably not a high level star, but then only a few ever get that kind of prominence.

[johnnydakota]

I'm having trouble having messages allowed in, probably due to some software glitch. I am using Microsoft Vista and maybe the protection is what is causing the problem. Anyway, I am with you. McRoberts was our best player this year. He was a very good defender, rebounded well, handled the ball and passed well and helped relieve pressure when we were pressed. He did get points, but we know his mid range shot was not there or used much. He also needed to improve his touch inside. I too think he will develop in those areas and will also have a long and solid career in the NBA. Probably not a high level star, but then only a few ever get that kind of prominence.

100% agree. Great point about the high level star. I can see, in a few years, Josh being the "3rd" player on a team that is really good. If his scoring is depended on, I agree he could struggle. But he is young, works hard, wants to win, is big and athletic, and has some very unique skills. If he doesn't improve his shooting and scoring on the blocks(which I think has as much to do with strength as anything), he may not reach his potential. If he does make those improvements, however, he could be a real force.

[dukie8]

I agree, for the most part, but 2 things come to my mind. Josh takes waaay to much criticism because he played and Duke and was the popular scapegoat for spoiled fans (read: Dukie8). In reality, he lead a successful season on a team with 1 scholly senior/junior by being the only player in America with 13 pts, 7.5 reb, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 blocks. My other issue is Noah had inferior numbers, was surrounded by veteran NBA talent and scorers, but is touted as a top 5 pick. I hear he can't score but can jump and is 6'11". Josh has far better ball skills and can jump at 6'11". I agree it will take time for him to develop and wish he'd stayed, but this doesn't mean he sucks and won't turn into a solid pro.

scapegoat? give me a break. he was by far the best player on this year's team. if you have read any of my posts from this year, you would have some idea who i think bears the brunt of this year's 8-8 mess -- and it definitely wasn't mcbob.

going 8-8 in a light year in the acc, losing on thurs in the acc tournament and then losing to an 11 seed in the ncaat with 6 mcdonald's aas is not a successful season in most people's eyes. we have beaten this issue to death but unc last year was even more inexperienced than duke this year and they still managed a 2 seed in the ncaat (and won a game) and beat duke at duke on senior day.

what ball skills are you referring to? the ones that he has that enable him not to be able to take his man off the dribble? if you want to see nba ball skills, you should have watched the nc and seen brewer, who is mcbob's height and can take guards off the dribble.

[dukie8]

A lot of guys? In support, you name 3 of the best players in the NBA? Name some more if there are so many. If not, I don't know who you think will beat out Josh for playing time.

i was asked how many 6'10" in the nba run, pass and dribble like mcbob can. i wasn't aware that in responding to that question, the 6'10" guys who can do all 3 exponentially better than mcbob were off limits for an answer.

[dukie8]

I really believe that McRoberts will be a solid pro. First of all, a lot of Duke players have a history of wildly outperforming expectations. Duhon, Ewing and Boozer were all taken second round. Shav wasn't even drafted and prior to his injury, he was shocking even his most ardent Duke supporters, let alone the rest of the basketball pundits.

i wouldn't call 3 "a lot" and i don't need to remind everyone of a much longer list of former duke players who have been, shall we say, underwhelming in the nba. moreover, the one other player who left early with k shaking his head, avery, was a disaster in the nba. deng and maggette may not have been given k's blessing, but he knew that they were talented enough to make it before getting cut.


Also, as others have mentioned, McRoberts is not even a year removed from a major back surgery. Even if he does not physically improve, mentally, there is a good chance that he will gain more confidence in the back which is really important.

how is he going to get his confidence back getting destroyed by nba guys in practice and in the 3 minutes he sees in a game? shel, who i assume everyone would agree was much much more prepared for the nba, is averaging 17 minutes and 4.7 ppg. the nba isn't a league where teams let marginal players work on their games -- that's what college or europe is for.

[dukie8]

I have read much about Josh's shortcomings and dubious future as a pro but it appears to me that everyone is viewing the situation solely from their own pro Duke viewpoint. If every criticism is true Josh made the best decision for himself by going out now while he can still capitalize on the market value of his potential and not have his market value eroded by his future performance. I honestly don't know how good McRoberts can really be in the pros but I do believe that the dollars placed on potential far exceed the dollars earned by performance and therefore Josh will probably earn a lot more by going out now that by waiting and going out two years from now. I say this despite the fact that i have little doubt that Josh would be a much better player two yeras from now had he stayed and learned from Coach K rather than sitting on an NBA bench for two years. In any event going pro is certainly the safer economic alternative for him. I guess it all really depends on how "great" a player Josh really is. It's an odd conundrum where the better he is the more he stands to gain by staying in college but the more flaws he has the better off he is going pro while the flaws are still categorizred as fixable with maturity?

if what you say is correct, then nobody ever should go to college for fear of destroying his valuable unknown upside. everyone should jump right to europe or the developmental league out of high school and never step foot on a college campus for fear of being exposed.

[WeepingThomasHill]

JohnnyDakota wrote:

"You just dig deeper and deeper. You don't hope you're wrong, and your tone gives you away. Did you have a nasty grocery store experience? What has Josh done to you to warrant this? You need to look over some NBA rosters a little to see that Josh will be fine. He will be a solid defender, a huge asset with his passing and ball handling, and I believe will develop into a serviceable scorer. He does need to improve, but because he chose to continue to do so in the NBA rather than at Duke hardly gives you the justification to say what you did."

Josh didn't do anything to me. This is a fan board, where fans voice their opinions. Accordingly, I disagree with your assessment that he will (i) be a "solid defender" when he really wasn't a solid defender in the ACC against elite bigs and (ii) be a serviceable scorer. I don't know how you define a serviceable scorer. More than 15/game? Luol Deng was a far greater offensive player coming into the league, and averaged 11 his rookie year. Redick averages about 6 ppg and Shelden under 5. Shav Randolph averaged 2 ppg. Please, Dakoka - look over the NBA rosters for similiar players at either the PF or F/C position, and identify McRoberts' comps.

[YmoBeThere]

I always thought the standard for a 6' 10" player that could dribble and pass was Lamar Odom, but I haven't watched much of the NBA lately. I don't think that Josh is at that level. I think some of the debate here should be on what you might expect Josh's potential to be. 10 pts a game, 5-6 rebounds? As far as 6th man potential, I don't think he has the scoring ability to play that role in his first contract.

I do think he will be able to get a second contract but won't be a consistent starter...

[Jumbo]

This thread has become unnecessarily contentious. Either watch the tone -- both toward each other and toward McRoberts -- or we're shutting it down.

[johnnydakota]

WeepingThomasHill wrote:


Josh didn't do anything to me. This is a fan board, where fans voice their opinions. Accordingly, I disagree with your assessment that he will (i) be a "solid defender" when he really wasn't a solid defender in the ACC against elite bigs and (ii) be a serviceable scorer. I don't know how you define a serviceable scorer. More than 15/game? Luol Deng was a far greater offensive player coming into the league, and averaged 11 his rookie year. Redick averages about 6 ppg and Shelden under 5. Shav Randolph averaged 2 ppg. Please, Dakoka - look over the NBA rosters for similiar players at either the PF or F/C position, and identify McRoberts' comps.

So 1st team all ACC defense and a leader (top 2 or 3) in blocks isn't solid? Against Indiana, he completely shut White down. Against Georgetown (final 4) he was outstanding against both Green and Hibbert. Against Hansbrough he has been better than Shelden ever was. Against BC's bigs both last year and this year his defense was superb. He outplayed Heytvelt of Gonzaga at both ends of the floor. All of this while having to provide tons of (quality)help for perimeter players getting beat off the dribble. He also played 36 minutes per game which is unheard of for a big, especially one who has no inside help. I could go on but I feel like this is more than enough to support the notion that Josh is a solid (in college better than solid) defender. I define a serviceable scorer as double figures. He likely won't be a 18 ppg guy, but doesn't need to be. I'm not sure why you're quoting everyone's rookie stats, as I never said Josh would instantly be a good NBA player. He needs to develop more which I believe he will. Finally, I don't know that there are alot of NBA'ers who are comparable to Josh, which is further reason for me to suggest he has real potential. My point was there are alot of guys sitting the bench who are not nearly as talented as Josh is, but are in the league nonetheless. Obviously, it's impossible to know now, but for anyone to write him off seems like you either don't want to look at the facts or you just plain don't like him (and that's fine). If Josh stays healthy, I would bet anyone that he will sign a second contract in the NBA.

[dukeisawesome]

I think McRoberts' only hope in the NBA is to work really hard on his defense and rebounding and become a defensive specialist, but I don't think he wants to do that so I agree with those who say he will be out of the league after a few years.

He's an average rebounder who was able to put up good rebounding numbers in college because of his size, but in the pros his size won't be anything special. Did you ever say "hey, nice box out" to McRoberts? I can't recall ever seeing him do anything like that, he was usually just pulling down easy boards with his length. His positioning was alright, but nothing special. He often chased blocks and gave up position.

His ballhandling, like others have said, is nice, but not really that useful. Especially in the NBA, he will never go coast to coast like he did in college. Quick guards would pick him off at halfcourt easily in the NBA. He is a nice complement in breaking the press, but his ballhandling skills aren't good enough to create his own offense.

Obviously, his shooting is brick city and he has no post moves.

If he wants to last in the NBA, he has to be willing to work on defense cause I can see him being a good shot blocker in the NBA, but he will also have to show he is willing to do the dirty work, box out, and grab boards. If he does that, he'll find that his foot speed will be helpful in that role, but if he tries to do it all like he did in college, he'll be out of the league in a heartbeat.

[CDu]

Much like the foolishness of suggesting that Dawkins didn't make it in the NBA (he averaged 14 points and 7 assists for 5+ seasons before injuries derailed him, and he stayed in the league 9 years regardless), suggesting that McRoberts won't get a second contract in the NBA is ridiculous.

McRoberts is a big man. He also is a skilled passer, which is a rare gift for a big man. He will undoubtedly get stronger, something he was unable to do over the last two years because of injury. The back injuries prevented him from building strength in the offseason, which is a big part of a post player's effectiveness. Given time in the NBA, I think McRoberts can develop a much stronger frame. That, along with his size and passing ability, will keep him on NBA rosters for several years. If he ever develops an offensive game, he moves into an even safer category.

Further, there appears to be lots of hyperbole with regard to "failing." It sounds like if you aren't a superstar, you should be out of the league. There's a large gap in-between, however, and that gap is filled with lots of mediocre/terrible big men. Essentially, if you're 6'10" or taller and have a pulse, you can find a job in the NBA.

I don't know if McRoberts is going to become a productive NBA player. But I do know that the areas in which he's deficient (shooting and strength) are the easiest areas for a big man to improve upon with work. Based on that fact, his height, and his passing ability, I think McRoberts will have a long (though likely not spectacular) NBA career, barring Dawkins-like injury woes.

[YmoBeThere]

Essentially, if you're 6'10" or taller and have a pulse, you can find a job in the NBA.

Wow, is that an overstatement! I have a few friends who were AA in their respective sports(football, baseball, and track) as well as being high draft picks who didn't make it as professionals. On the other hand, I know one guy at 6'9" who was good but not great in college that stuck around in the NBA for years because he was willing to defend and rebound in the post.

[throatybeard]

Much like the foolishness of suggesting that Dawkins didn't make it in the NBA (he averaged 14 points and 7 assists for 5+ seasons before injuries derailed him, and he stayed in the league 9 years regardless), suggesting that McRoberts won't get a second contract in the NBA is ridiculous.

Making the comparison you just did (much like the foolishness of suggesting A...suggesting B is ridiculous) is logically suspect.

Evaluating Dawkins' career deals with past events, outcomes that are now fixed. There's a high degree of certainty there, at least about what happened. The only leeway is in assessing the value of what actually happened. (14/7 &c).

Suggesting that McR won't get a second contract is merely making a speculative projection about the future. That suggestion should not and can not be held to the same standard of reliability as a past event.

[CDu]

Making the comparison you just did (much like the foolishness of suggesting A...suggesting B is ridiculous) is logically suspect.

Evaluating Dawkins' career deals with past events, outcomes that are now fixed. There's a high degree of certainty there, at least about what happened. The only leeway is in assessing the value of what actually happened. (14/7 &c).

Suggesting that McR won't get a second contract is merely making a speculative projection about the future. That suggestion should not and can not be held to the same standard of reliability as a past event.

But my argument IS based on what has actually happened. As I said, big men tend to get second contracts based simply on the fact that they're big. So McRoberts, because he is big and because he can pass, will get a second contract. You can argue that it is more speculative (which would be a correct argument), but you can also argue that it is far from completely speculative.

Also, I defend my logic in that I say that it is "much like," not "exactly like." Clearly there are differences, but I think the similarities (i.e., the polar "if you aren't great you're terrible" argument I suggested was being employed) outweigh the differences.

[greybeard]

If it didn't hold him back this year, I'd be surprised. More importantly, if it didn't hold him back this year, and there is not an expectation that it will improve over the next 6 months, I see him being disappointed in the draft. Since I believe that his back substantially impacted his play this year, I believe he will not be disappointed in the draft.

How will he do, you guys really have exhausted the possibilities and the whys, with the exception of this. Josh gets the game, I mean he really, really gets the game. I think we saw that with his defense the first half of the year, which I thought was spectacular (by the way, for you guys who are always crying about K not using a zone, Josh it seemed to me was often playing one) and with some of his offense, especially the games when he was the on-the-move receiver, which granted were few. If he is matched with another big who is a scorer close to the basket, and his back improves, so will his shot, and the other big is going to look much better than he otherwise would. Those are big ifs, but put a healthy McRob on Orlando, for example, and he might make a terrific contribution, if the back comes around.

The back definitely, unquestionably effected negatively his ability to catch and shoot, imo. McRob looked to me as two different people. If he had the opportunity to get himself in motion, he elevated with tremendous grace and seemed to have even a little after burner on jumps; saw that a lot on early season blocks and rebounds, and late mid-season on some catches and dunks. On the other hand, standing still he seemed painfully awkward, either when he tried to elevate and shoot, but even more noticeably when he went to catch and just reached with his arms and there was no corresponding movement in his torso or legs.

If there is no improvement there, I am happy for Josh to get whatever money he can. If there is, he probably still has a more finite number of games in that body of his than any of us, and certainly than he, would like. Better he get paid.

I don't know much about the teammate/attitude issues referenced here, but I add that it is not easy emotionally putting yourself out there and having your body fail you intermitently and sometimes subtlely, but with definite consequence for your effectiveness. Not making excuses, but that is why I have so marveled at Josh's classmate and teammate, Paulus; that guy is something very, very special. I ain't faulting McRob for falling short of that incredibly high standard.