Plain and Simple Gut Check

[TwoDukeTattoos]

I can certainly appreciate the analysis of stats and figures, game plans, players strenghts and weaknesses, etc. But right now, what I'd like to know plainly and simply is, what are your guts telling you about this Duke team. Are we going to be a legit condender in Feb and March? Or are we going wither to mediocrity for a third consecutive season? Please bear in mind, this isn't a hate post. I love my Devils as much as anyone. I am simply being a realist here, and I'd love to know what others' guts are telling them. Chime in.

[HDB]

It all comes down to personnel. We're weak at the point and in the middle. Not a good combo. I'm afraid we're in for another early March exit.

[roywhite]

My assessment is lower following the Clemson game, but I still believe Duke will be a Final 8 team or possibly better.

[WojoSay?]

No one team is clearly dominate this year and we have the horses to stage a 6 game run. I will say that I have tempered my expectations, but if we can't believe then how can we expect our guys to believe.

We might not be hitting on all cylinders right now, but I have seen fire in this year's team. More will be known by next Wednesday night! Call me optimistic if you wish, but I think we will beat Miami and UNC.

LGD!

[gumbomoop]

My assessment is lower following the Clemson game, but I still believe Duke will be a Final 8 team or possibly better.

Yes, I'm sorta here. A bit more specifically, right now I'd have to guess we'll be a 2-3 seed, and in a regional final, we'd perhaps face Pitt, UConn, or Okla, all with crusher big guys. Btw, I'll guess/predict we'll be placed in Okla's region, as NCAA likes to set up "family" tussles. I hope (?) we get Pitt, both because it'd be less travel distance, and I'd prefer not to root against Capel. Okla, like Davidson, is a good story this year.

[RWD]

Shortly before the recent unpleasantness, I told somebody that I believed that, although we might lose, I did not think this was a team that would be blown out, and the reason was Singler. After significant therapy and pharmaceutical help, I still believe that, and think this is a sweet 16 team, with a chance for a final four if things break right.

RWD

PS - Earljam, I have thought for many years that we park our cars in the same garage. Hopefully you're not in disagreement here.

[heyman25]

With Thomas Zoubek and Scheyer not excelling in their roles lately,my instincts are a Sweet 16 exit. If Scheyer has hit his plateau and is fading in February and March,I don't see anyone able to step up to help with the scoring we need. Henderson and Singler aren't enough to carry Duke into the Elite 8 or Final 4.

[sivartrenrag]

I think it depends on Scheyer. If he gets back into form, we will go far. If he doesn't, early exit :'(

[gmorris22]

Its all about matchups. If we get a good seating and have to play teams that we matchup well against then we can be a sweet 16 team. But if we dont we will not make it out of the first week.

[wallyman]

Boy, one game sure knocked the bluster out of us. Two weeks ago people were talking Final Four/NC caliber. Now they're talking about whether we get out of the first weekend. The Clemson game was beyond disastrous, but I think I'll wait to see what happens to the next two or three before giving up on the season. But I'll agree that if Scheyer can't shoot and Nolan can't break a press, we're in real trouble.

[KenTankerous]

I've said it before but it bears repeating - you Dukies are SOOOO spoiled! You need to really enjoy this ride. You have been, and will continue to be for the foreseeable future, a top ten program. You have the best coach to ever prowl the sidelines. You have more players in the NBA making more money than any other university. Those that do not make the NBA graduate with meaningful degrees and do great things like advise the President.

Everyone, in conference or not, brings their A game for the Blue Devils. And say what you will about The Big East, but shot for shot, rebound for rebound, The ACC is the toughest league in the NCAA. Okay - you got blown out for your worst loss in 13 years. But it wasn't by a GaTech or (GULP) a VMI. It was a very talented, well coached and well rested #10 Clemson squad hell bent on ending a 20 year losing streak on their home court.

Gerald's wrist is fine. Kyle will keep bringing it. Jon will find his shot. Nolan will break presses. Brian will clutter up the middle enough and make most of his two foot shots. Greg is just starting to get hungry. His final March in uniform, you think that might motivate him? And I think you've got a few more weapons at K's disposal, no? If even half of these click, you are going to Detroit.

So my gut feeling - as a Kentucky fan - is, I'd rather lose in the first round to a Gonzaga or Davidson or Texas Tech than face the Blue Devils, even the Devils that faced Clemson, in what would certainly be an embarrassing second round exit.

[Buckeye Devil]

Guts are not always trustworthy especially after an embarrassing loss that causes emotions to run amuck even several days after the event. Duke did play a rested, legitimate top 10 team on its home court that was eager to end a long string of futility against the Devils. I don't think that we should throw in the towel just yet.

With that said, this does not seem to be a vintage Duke squad and it looked either weary or not very athletic against Clemson. It is lacking at the point and pivot, and needs a defensive enforcer. If Duke gets a hot shooting hand (come on John or someone else as a legitimate scoring threat) and gets some favorable matchups, I will be disappointed if they don't make a Sweet 16 appearance. I think that any reasonable Duke fan would be happy with that outcome for this season. An Elite 8 showing would be a bonus. But a WVU-type opponent like last year could spell trouble in the second round.

[houstondukie]

We'll make the Final Four.

Take it to the bank.

[OldPhiKap]

This is a good, balanced team. We'll be fine. In fact, I think we are better off than several of our last teams:

1. More balanced.
2. Not reliant on the 3 as much
3. Not reliant on a single player

K has done fine with a heck of a lot less talent and options than this team.

I remember the sky falling when UNC beat the living crud out of us in the 1991 ACC Tourney final. IIRC we lost by somewhere around 20. It was absolutely humiliating. We all know how they bounced back from this.

No one wants to see us in thier bracket. I can't think of anyone I'm scared to play.

[darkblue2769]

They'll be contenders, sure, but as far as winning the tourney goes, as others have said, they have to be good for 6 straight games. This team is certainly good enough to stage a 6 game run and win it all, but I don't think it is likely, though I am confident they will make it out of the first two rounds...

My prediction is an Elite Eight loss to a 1 seed (I think we will be a 2), and I am thinking it might be to Connecticut.

Of course, I am just pulling this out of my butt right now, and I'd really just rather wait until March to see how we do in March.

[mgtr]

I was pretty down after the Clemson loss, but I want to see how today's game and the next game go before I cave in. I know it has been discussed a lot here, but maybe this falls into the "good loss" category. I do think there is such a thing, and K can point to this game the rest of the season if we look as though we are letting down.
I don't know how far we can go in the tournament, but I am betting that we do better than in the last few years. In a week I may up the ante on that.

[Cameron]

We'll make the Final Four.

Take it to the bank.

Take it to the bank?

This team has left so much to be desired the past two nights that it's almost hard to watch. I'm not a fair weathered fan, so I will always continue to watch, but it's hard. Watching this first half today, I saw nothing. On our end of things, it was like watching an ESPN ping pong match on a Monday afternoon in June. There was just nothing there.

32-19 at Cameron? A game after getting beat 74-47 at Clemson, the most lopsided loss during the program's last 19 years?

Whew. I would LOVE to hear Coach right now. Absolutely love it.

I hope this team can regroup. Our shooting has packed up and left town. It's on vacation.

So, my plain and simple gut check?

This is a good groups of kids, but I'm going to be a nervous, nervous fan come the second round, if we live to see it.

[Coballs]

This is a good, balanced team. We'll be fine. In fact, I think we are better off than several of our last teams:

1. More balanced.
2. Not reliant on the 3 as much
3. Not reliant on a single player

K has done fine with a heck of a lot less talent and options than this team.

I remember the sky falling when UNC beat the living crud out of us in the 1991 ACC Tourney final. IIRC we lost by somewhere around 20. It was absolutely humiliating. We all know how they bounced back from this.

No one wants to see us in thier bracket. I can't think of anyone I'm scared to play.

Any thoughts on revising or just deleting your earlier post? There is no balance, they are entirely reliant on the 3, and with Henderson and Singler go the team.

[Matches]

We'll make the Final Four.

Take it to the bank.

Wachovia?

[Cameron]

Wow, the highs and lows of being a college basketball fan.

Thank you, Greg Paulus and Gerald Henderson, for bringing me back up to Earth.

[rockymtn devil]

My gut right now (even in light of the surge to start the second half of today's game) is that without increased output down low (not going to happen), more dribble aggression from our guards (tough to do against a zone, which Duke is going to see much more of), or improved outside shooting, this is a second round team. That goes for any team. No inside presence, dribble penetration, or jump shooting equals a mediocre team.

With that said, it's early February and the team is capable of shooting better than it has. Improved outside shooting will force teams to play Duke man-to-man which, in turn, should open up driving lanes. If that happens, we are more than capable of winning six straight in March.

[OldPhiKap]

Any thoughts on revising or just deleting your earlier post? There is no balance, they are entirely reliant on the 3, and with Henderson and Singler go the team.

I didn't see today's game, but I'll stick with my post. Some folks here are acting like they haven't seen a team struggle and then grow from it. It's like this team has stunk it up from the get-go with some of y'all. Does anyone really think that the team which put the hurtin' on Maryland, beat G'town, etc. is dead and gone?

I hate to see the team struggle as much as the next guy. But a cruddy 3 halves or even three weeks is no big deal.

And, from what I read, it looks like the big players for us today were Scheyer, Paulus and McClure. But again I didn't see the game -- just going on what I read at SI or some such.

I have seen what these kids can do, and I sure as hell have seen what K has done for three decades plus. Assuming we're healthy, I'll put my money on K to get us to the regional title game -- and from there on, anyone can win it.



-- OldPK

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

I didn't see today's game, but I'll stick with my post. Some folks here are acting like they haven't seen a team struggle and then grow from it. It's like this team has stunk it up from the get-go with some of y'all. Does anyone really think that the team which put the hurtin' on Maryland, beat G'town, etc. is dead and gone?

I hate to see the team struggle as much as the next guy. But a cruddy 3 halves or even three weeks is no big deal.

And, from what I read, it looks like the big two for us today (in addition to the two you mentioned) were Scheyer and McClure. But again I didn't see the game -- just going on what I read at SI or some such.

I have seen what these kids can do, and I sure as hell have seen what K has done for three decades plus. Assuming we're healthy, I'll pu tmy money on K to get us to the regional title game -- and from there on, anyone can win it.

-- OldPK

I was at the game. The combination of players who played much of the second half provided the combination of elements needed to win.... Henderson's shots at crucial times to keep us in the game, McClure's tough defense and rebounds, Singler's rebounds, Scheyer's shots going in and Paulus hitting some big shots while running the floor game with a lot of heart. The shooting appeared more balanced than it has been for several games. Once the offense got into a rhythm, Duke looked more like the team we expect to show up. There were still a some lapses of focus and not following the ball enough for some rebounds, but I expect those aspects of play to be much sharper come Wednesday night. But remember, I'm no expert!

[GoingFor#5]

I think we go far.

We are experienced and this is going to help. We're used to playing in unfamiliar environments, played some tough road and neutral court games this year, and that helps. The Clemson game snowballed because they were at home. That type of thing is not likely in March.

I think Coach K needs to play both Paulus and Smith depending on the matchup. He's gotta be quick to recognize when Paulus is getting broken down by quicker guards and go with Smith, but equally quick in recognizing when Smith is confused and not providing a spark. Also we cannot win like we did today and just jack up 3s, their needs to be more of an effort to go inside SOMEHOW SOMEWAY (I don't know who though?)

[ncexnyc]

I assume the phrase, "Legit Contender" means we can win it all.

Based on that, I answered NO.

This team can indeed beat any team in the country on a given night, but to win it all means you have to win 6 games and this squad has issues at the point and in the post, which will eventually be our undoing.

Saying this, is in my view being realistic. Let's be honest, when we talk about the holes, we talk about their talent, but we always mention how somewhere along the line their defense will cost them a game. I just believe our team will fall somewhere along the line when our weaknesses comeback to haunt us.

[brevity]

I'm not sure if we can glean much out of the poll results. Each person defines "legit contender" differently, and based on their specific definition will decide if Duke qualifies or not.

If we take "legit contender" to mean a Sweet 16 caliber team that will get that far and should go much further depending on the kind of breaks we get, then... yes. We should get past the first weekend.

If we take "legit contender" to mean a team worthy of its seed, unlikely to be upset, then... maybe. Those 2 seed vs. 3 seed games can be tricky.

But if "legit contender" means Final Four bound, regardless of location or opponent, then... no. I haven't seen that level of excellence from us yet.

Bear in mind that there's not really a clear 4th team to join Oklahoma, Connecticut, and UNC (in that order) as the top seeds. Almost every highly ranked team is losing a game or two right now. A few statement games from Duke can go a long way.

[OldPhiKap]

But remember, I'm no expert!

Me thinks the lady doth protest too much!

Thanks for the report. -- OPK

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Me thinks the lady doth protest too much!

Thanks for the report. -- OPK
I admit to having many opportunities to watch great coaches at work with some of the game's best players... Vic Bubas, Coach K, Bones McKinney..... and yes, Dean Smith and and even Frank McGuire. Watching that much basketball is bound encourage some sort of understanding of what's going on on the floor. It then becomes a matter of reporting what you see.

Some of the TV offerings today are interesting in view of the upcoming games (women's game and the managers' game, too). The ESPN feature on the original Speedo guy has been run again. This is typical fare for the lead up to the first encounter on the hardwood between Duke and Carolina. "Glory Road" just finished..... a film that would seem to have more relevance to March Madness than the great rivalry between Duke and Carolina. I interpret the scheduling to be a tribute to how big this upcoming game is nationally.

I say enjoy the time leading up to this game, savor the various rituals and other events we all associate with this game. Ignore trash talk which does nothing but undercut the elegance and timelessness of this rivalry. It's just a matter of time until the same magnificent rivalry becomes the highlight of the football season, too.

[DukePA]

I've said it before but it bears repeating - you Dukies are SOOOO spoiled! You need to really enjoy this ride. You have been, and will continue to be for the foreseeable future, a top ten program. You have the best coach to ever prowl the sidelines. You have more players in the NBA making more money than any other university. Those that do not make the NBA graduate with meaningful degrees and do great things like advise the President.

Everyone, in conference or not, brings their A game for the Blue Devils. And say what you will about The Big East, but shot for shot, rebound for rebound, The ACC is the toughest league in the NCAA. Okay - you got blown out for your worst loss in 13 years. But it wasn't by a GaTech or (GULP) a VMI. It was a very talented, well coached and well rested #10 Clemson squad hell bent on ending a 20 year losing streak on their home court.

Gerald's wrist is fine. Kyle will keep bringing it. Jon will find his shot. Nolan will break presses. Brian will clutter up the middle enough and make most of his two foot shots. Greg is just starting to get hungry. His final March in uniform, you think that might motivate him? And I think you've got a few more weapons at K's disposal, no? If even half of these click, you are going to Detroit.

So my gut feeling - as a Kentucky fan - is, I'd rather lose in the first round to a Gonzaga or Davidson or Texas Tech than face the Blue Devils, even the Devils that faced Clemson, in what would certainly be an embarrassing second round exit.

Thank you once again for a terrific post!

[TwoDukeTattoos]

...would anyone care to revisit this topic?

[Buckeye Devil]

I still think that a Sweet 16 appearance is a reasonable expectation and will be disappointed with anything less. An Elite 8 would be a bonus for this team. Duke is still weak at the point and pivot and I am still a little bothered by a bad second round match up.

[roywhite]

I still think that a Sweet 16 appearance is a reasonable expectation and will be disappointed with anything less. An Elite 8 would be a bonus for this team. Duke is still weak at the point and pivot and I am still a little bothered by a bad second round match up.

I'm more encouraged that that; very good chance to be a Final Four team IMO. We might draw a big, physical team like UCon or Pitt in the Elite Eight, which would be difficult, but Duke is a tough, talented team with 3 very good players and some role players.

I really take issue that "Duke is still weak at the point"; Jon Scheyer is doing a terrific job there; he has something like 4 turnovers in the last 3 games, is making smart plays, and scoring better himself.

[MarkD83]

I like our chances of getting through the first weekend, because Coach K is concentrating on creating mis-matches with Duke's talent rather than trying to match his talent to the stop other team's strengths.

1) G will be/is almost unguardable to a potential first or second round opponent.

2) Kyle is showing signs of being equally unguardable at times with his tough drives to the basket and not settling for 3-ptrs.

3) Duke is doing a better job than the past few years of rotation at the defensive end to draw charges. A typical 1st or 2nd round team won't be in the habit of pulling up for a mid-range jumper. In fact Md and VT who should know better could not bring themselves to pull up for the mid-range jumper. Wake did a great job of this by the way. As an aside the book on Duke the past few years has been attack the rim. Good defensive rotation to draw the charge will slow down this gameplan and that part of Duke's D was missing in 2008 and 2007.

4) Duke is hustling for the contested rebounds. Even against taller teams Duke is holding their own or winning the rebound battle. The loss to WVU last year was mostly a result of Duke not getting defensive rebounds.

So I like our chances in the first and second round. After that I will need to see the matchups.

[ncexnyc]

I assume the phrase, "Legit Contender" means we can win it all.

Based on that, I answered NO.

This team can indeed beat any team in the country on a given night, but to win it all means you have to win 6 games and this squad has issues at the point and in the post, which will eventually be our undoing.

Saying this, is in my view being realistic. Let's be honest, when we talk about the holes, we talk about their talent, but we always mention how somewhere along the line their defense will cost them a game. I just believe our team will fall somewhere along the line when our weaknesses comeback to haunt us.

The new line-up has gotten us 4 straight wins.

Jon has stabilized the PG slot on the offensive end and Elliot has done his job on the defensive end with both players upping their offensive games.

We've got Douglas and Lawson the next two games and this should let us know just where we stand as far as this experiment goes.

The post is still not where I would like it to be. I really don't see anything changing there for the rest of the season, unless Miles turns into another Elliot.

This team will probably make a 2nd Round exit on either Saturday or Sunday.

[BlueintheFace]

That depends, if we beat Fla.St, and win at least one against Carolina (or the ACC championship if we lose @ carolina) then yes. This is a season in which I think we can be a real contender, but CONFIDENCE going in to the tournament will mean a lot. We need to finish this season in style.

[Jumbo]

This team will probably make a 2nd Round exit on either Saturday or Sunday.

"Probably?" So it's probable that Duke, as a likely 2-seed, will lose to a 7 or a 10?

This is not a great team. It doesn't make things look as easy as some previous Duke teams. But it's a very good team in a year where there really aren't great teams out there. Obviously, matchups are critical, but this team absolutely has the ability to make a deep run in March. Sure, the guys could lose early, too, but so could anyone. There's a lot of luck involved. But this a darn good Duke team, and people are forgetting that.

[ncexnyc]

"Probably?" So it's probable that Duke, as a likely 2-seed, will lose to a 7 or a 10?

This is not a great team. It doesn't make things look as easy as some previous Duke teams. But it's a very good team in a year where there really aren't great teams out there. Obviously, matchups are critical, but this team absolutely has the ability to make a deep run in March. Sure, the guys could lose early, too, but so could anyone. There's a lot of luck involved. But this a darn good Duke team, and people are forgetting that.

Sorry, my mistake. I got my terminology messed up. The tournament considers the 2nd game the 2nd round. What I meant was they will lose the 2nd weekend of the tournament on either Saturday or Sunday, so that means they will win 3 games.

Now if you think my analysis of our post play and potential post play is off then please clue me in where I'm missing something.

[jv001]

Has made me more confident that we can make a run in the NCAA Tournament. However what bothers me is a matchup with a terrifiic frontline that pounds the boards. I worry that our new rotation may have trouble with that kind of lineup if we don't turn them over. If we get hot from the three point line, we can beat anyone, but if we are cold we could lose to some of the later round opponents. Let's complete the regular season with two more wins. Beat unc...Go Duke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Right now, Sweet 16 team. But, if:

a) Miles pulls a Marvin Williams and begins playing like a superstar
b) G continues playing like a crazed mad man and demands a constant double team
c) Singler averages a double double
d) Scheyer shoots over 50% from the three
e) Smith and Paulus have a combined 4:1 assist to turnover ratio
f) Coach K not only removes hit jacket, but also his shirt

Then we would be unstoppable! Final 4, please. In the words of every analyst speaking of Carolina before the season started, anything less than a championship would be a disappointment!

P.S. I love that no one is giving Carolina much love any more
P.S.S. Of those, b) c) and d) could all potentially happen. And that would be very very very scary.

[TwoDukeTattoos]

what bothers me is a matchup with a terrifiic frontline that pounds the boards. I worry that our new rotation may have trouble with that kind of lineup if we don't turn them over.

You hit the nail on the head. I"m a little surprised that it hasn't been written more by analysts, but Duke was heavily outrebounded vs Wake and VT. If we hadn't turned them over, our scoring opportunities would have been much less. If we come up against a team that kills us on the glass AND takes care of the ball, it could be a long night.

[chi]

If

Coach K not only removes hit jacket, but also his shirt (http://www.wallpaperez.net/wallpaper/movie/The-Incredible-Hulk-1562.jpg)

then

this guy's angel will show up (https://secure.vnuemedia.com/pdn/photos/stylus/70709-apimagesncaa.jpg)