Eight ACC teams with a shot at the tourney

[CDu]

We've basically hit the turn in the ACC schedule, with teams having played 7-9 ACC games so far. Right now, I think four teams are a given for the big dance: Duke, UNC, Wake, and Clemson. What is interesting to me is that four other teams have a reasonable shot at making the tournament as well: BC, FSU, Miami, and Va Tech.

Their cases:

BC - they are 6-3 in conference with a marquee win on the road against UNC. They wrap up the season with @Miami, FSU, @NC St, Ga Tech. The losses to Harvard and SLU aren't doing them any favors, but I think winning two of those four (getting them to 8-8 in the conference) and winning a game in the ACC tournament would be enough.

FSU - RPI top-30, 4-3 in the ACC, with wins over Cincy, UF, and Cal, no bad losses. Beating UNC would have REALLY helped. They don't have that marquee road win, but solid non-conference wins help. They have lots of winnable games left, with UVa, Va Tech, @Va Tech, Miami, and @BC. Stealing one against Clemson would really help their cause. Otherwise, they have to win 4 of those 5 games against the middle/lower teir ACC teams.

Miami - top-50 RPI (maybe higher), 4-5 in the ACC, big win over Wake and a win @UK. They have two opportunities with @Duke and UNC to make a strong case for themselves. They also close with @FSU, BC, @UVa, @Ga Tech, and NC St. They can't lose any of the last three if they want a strong case, but getting to 8-8 isn't out of the question.

Va Tech - top-40 RPI, 4-3 in the ACC, win over Wake, but some not-so-good losses to Seton Hall and @UGa. They have four winnable games in a row with NC St, Ga Tech, @Maryland, @UVa. If they win those four, they have a good case. The problem is that they can't then go 0-5 down the stretch with those bad losses. They'll probably need a win against FSU or against one of the big boys to seal it.

It's very unlikely that all four bubble teams get in. At least one will get in almost certainly, and I think at least two would be a safe bet. But it would be interesting and not out of the question for all four to have a good case come tourney time.

[pfrduke]

We've basically hit the turn in the ACC schedule, with teams having played 7-9 ACC games so far. Right now, I think four teams are a given for the big dance: Duke, UNC, Wake, and Clemson. What is interesting to me is that four other teams have a reasonable shot at making the tournament as well: BC, FSU, Miami, and Va Tech.

Their cases:

BC - they are 6-3 in conference with a marquee win on the road against UNC. They wrap up the season with @Miami, FSU, @NC St, Ga Tech. The losses to Harvard and SLU aren't doing them any favors, but I think winning two of those four (getting them to 8-8 in the conference) and winning a game in the ACC tournament would be enough.

FSU - RPI top-30, 4-3 in the ACC, with wins over Cincy, UF, and Cal, no bad losses. Beating UNC would have REALLY helped. They don't have that marquee road win, but solid non-conference wins help. They have lots of winnable games left, with UVa, Va Tech, @Va Tech, Miami, and @BC. Stealing one against Clemson would really help their cause. Otherwise, they have to win 4 of those 5 games against the middle/lower teir ACC teams.

Miami - top-50 RPI (maybe higher), 4-5 in the ACC, big win over Wake and a win @UK. They have two opportunities with @Duke and UNC to make a strong case for themselves. They also close with @FSU, BC, @UVa, @Ga Tech, and NC St. They can't lose any of the last three if they want a strong case, but getting to 8-8 isn't out of the question.

Va Tech - top-40 RPI, 4-3 in the ACC, win over Wake, but some not-so-good losses to Seton Hall and @UGa. They have four winnable games in a row with NC St, Ga Tech, @Maryland, @UVa. If they win those four, they have a good case. The problem is that they can't then go 0-5 down the stretch with those bad losses. They'll probably need a win against FSU or against one of the big boys to seal it.

It's very unlikely that all four bubble teams get in. At least one will get in almost certainly, and I think at least two would be a safe bet. But it would be interesting and not out of the question for all four to have a good case come tourney time.

I think the order of likely bid is FSU, BC, VT, Miami. BC may be 6-3 now, but they have a very real chance of losing the next 5 - @Wake, Clemson, Duke, @Miami, FSU. They need to steal a win in there and then win the last two against Tech and State. Even with beating UNC, I don't think 20-11,8-8 with losses in 5 out of 7 down the stretch will get them in. And there's the "but they lost to Harvard" factor that works against them more than the UNC win works for them.

FSU, as you point out, has a very solid resume (really for the first time in Hamilton's tenure). Their win over Cincinnati keeps looking better, and the Florida and Cal wins are strong too - those are three teams that could have similar looking resumes to FSU by the end of the season, and the Noles beat them all. They're also, at least in my opinion, the best team of this group.

[davekay1971]

Great breakdowns!

I think everyone's in agreement with the 4 locks.

The ACC will probably not get more than 6 teams in, based on recent history of the conference getting relatively few bids AND the recent history of the ACC not performing quite at the level we're used to in the tournament. However, all four of those bubble teams have good resumes.

Miami significantly bolstered their chances with the win over Wake. We need to make sure they don't further advance their cause this weekend!

I think if FSU goes 5-4 down the stretch they're probably in. I haven't looked at their schedule closely enough to know if this is likely, but clearly they're a solid team.

If VT ends up on the outside looking in there will be so many games they'll look back on as ones they let get away (ie: the Clemson and BC games) that could have made the difference.

Al Skinner deserves props for the job he's done at BC this season. Despite the Harvard game, they have outperformed what they were projected to do in a big way. The Harvard game was an obvious letdown/trap game, and kudos to Tommy Amaker for taking advantage of it.

I hope the ACC gets in 8, but I'm expecting 6. However many we get in, I hope that all but one make it to the sweet 16. And you know who that one team is...

[VAGentleman05]

What's this? No love for the Hoos? ;)

Seriously, though, that middle tier is tough to pin down. Just when I think I've got it figured out, Miami pulls out a 27-point beatdown of WF. Obviously, there's a lot of basketball left to play, but I look to see Florida State and VPI go dancing. I think Miami has a shot if they can build on some of the momentum this week, but I'll be surprised if BC doesn't suffer a mini-collapse at some point and wind up in the NIT.

EDIT: I might add that I would not be entirely shocked if, by the end of the year, Wake looks more like a second tier team than a top tier squad. They've already put up a couple doughnuts in games they should've won, and on the whole they look more beatable than the top 3, IMO. They're trending way, way up on the whole, though, and I wouldn't bet against them for the next few years.

[CDu]

I think BC has the easiest path. I don't think BC beating FSU at home would be stealing a win, as FSU isn't great on the road and BC has beaten teams of similar quality already. And they have those two bunnies at the end. The Harvard loss is the only concern. If they're 21-10 and 8-8 without the Harvard loss, they're a shoe-in. But that loss might just make them sweat. But 9-7 in the ACC would do it, and that's not an unreasonable goal. They need only three more wins to be safely in, which is more than can be said for the other three bubble teams (each of whom needs four or five).

FSU's numbers look good right now, but they have a tough remaining schedule. They have five fairly winnable games and four pretty difficult games (Clemson twice, @Duke, and @Wake). I don't expect wins in any of those, though I guess they could beat Clemson at home. But if they go 0-4 in those games, they'll have to go 4-1 just to get to 8-8. And I don't think they'll get in at 7-9, even with the strong out of conference resume.

The way the schedule lays out, FSU and Va Tech may be battling for one spot, as they play each other twice with both needing wins to get to 8-8. If any of those four can steal one against the big boys, it'll make the picture clearer. But at this point, considering how inconsistent each of those teams is, anything can happen.

If I had to bet, I'd say BC and FSU get in safely, with Miami and Va Tech sweating. Miami is such a tough call because they play so inconsistently. They could very conceivably beat Duke and then just as easily drop one at Ga Tech.

[CDu]

What's this? No love for the Hoos? ;)

Seriously, though, that middle tier is tough to pin down. Just when I think I've got it figured out, Miami pulls out a 27-point beatdown of WF. Obviously, there's a lot of basketball left to play, but I look to see Florida State and VPI go dancing. I think Miami has a shot if they can build on some of the momentum this week, but I'll be surprised if BC doesn't suffer a mini-collapse at some point and wind up in the NIT.

EDIT: I might add that I would not be entirely shocked if, by the end of the year, Wake looks more like a second tier team than a top tier squad. They've already put up a couple doughnuts in games they should've won, and on the whole they look more beatable than the top 3, IMO. They're trending way, way up on the whole, though, and I wouldn't bet against them for the next few years.

It's funny that we've gotten four different takes on these middling teams from the four who've posted. I guess that just shows how inconsistent each team is. I think Miami has the most talented team of the four. I think BC has the best individual player, which can go a long way. FSU has the best size and probably the best defense, but they can really struggle to score. And Va Tech has the best combination of slasher, shooter, and post presence of the four.

I'd be surprised if Wake drops into the middle of the pack. Their schedule is a lot softer down the stretch. They have five home games (where they are much better), and three of their four road games are against the bottom three in the ACC. I won't be surprised if they're the #4 team in the ACC, but I can't see them getting less than 10 wins (and I can just as easily see 12 wins as 10).

[VAGentleman05]

It's funny that we've gotten four different takes on these middling teams from the four who've posted. I guess that just shows how inconsistent each team is. I think Miami has the most talented team of the four. I think BC has the best individual player, which can go a long way. FSU has the best size and probably the best defense, but they can really struggle to score. And Va Tech has the best combination of slasher, shooter, and post presence of the four.

That's a pretty solid take. It reminds me a little of this football season, where it almost seemed like nobody wanted to win the league. Every time I think I've identified the obvious fifth bid, they lay an egg.


I'd be surprised if Wake drops into the middle of the pack. Their schedule is a lot softer down the stretch. They have five home games (where they are much better), and three of their four road games are against the bottom three in the ACC. I won't be surprised if they're the #4 team in the ACC, but I can't see them getting less than 10 wins (and I can just as easily see 12 wins as 10).

You're probably right, but Wake is, to a lesser degree, in the same "inconsistent" pattern that you used to describe Miami (beating Duke and losing to GA Tech). There's little doubt that they have Top 2-3 talent in the league, but I think the youth will (and already has) begin to wear on them. I don't think 10 wins is a stretch, but I'm not expecting a deep ACC or NCAA tourney run out of them this year. The window really opens for them next year, IMO.

[ice-9]

The window really opens for them next year, IMO.

IF players like Teague, Aminu and Johnson elect to return.

[SMO]

IF players like Teague, Aminu and Johnson elect to return.

I don't think they'll all be back. Teague is better than Lawson IMO, and Lawson is considered gone so I think Teague goes.

[Olympic Fan]

I think this weekend's ACC schedule will help us sort out the teams at the top and in the middle.

Interesting that the league's three two-loss teams all play at home on Saturday. UNC gets a bye when Virginia visits Chapel Hill. Duke and Clemson get mid-level teams trying to build their resume. I think FSU (at Clemson) is in better shape with a loss than Miami (at Duke).

Sunday's three games include two that matter: N.C. State is at Virginia Tech in a game the Hokies have to win; Boston College is at Wake in a battle of three-loss teams. Maryland is at Georgia Tech in a battle of NIT contenders (Maryland is looking good; Tech has some work to do).

This weekend could provide some real separation in the standings if the two-loss teams all win at home. The BC at Wake winner with remain one game behind, along with VPI, assuming the Hokies beat State in Blacksburg. Everybody else would be at least two games back.

BTW: Interesting that Clemson not only has a tough home game with FSU Saturday, but they have a tough road trip to BC Tuesday. If Duke and UNC win Saturday and the Tigers split theor two games, the Duke-UNC game Wednesday will be for sole possession of first in the ACC.

[CDu]

Well, Va Tech survived and FSU helped their case. Miami ALMOST really helped their case, but lost. BC did what was expected (lost to Wake).

At 5-3, FSU has almost a must-win game tonight against UVa. They need three more wins, but the schedule after tonight is tough (@Wake, Miami, @Va Tech, @BC, Clemson, @Duke, and Va Tech). Win tonight and they only need to win two of those games (I'd say the home games against Miami and Va Tech are their best bets). Lose tonight, and they put a LOT of pressure on themselves to hold serve at home or steal some tough road games.

BC has a chance at home against Clemson. They have good guard play and decent size. If they can withstand Clemson's press, they might be able to win this one. A win here (to go to 7-4) virtually locks up a bid, considering that they close with @NCSU and Ga Tech. A loss doesn't change much - they should still get to 8-8, and have a solid shot at 9-7.

Va Tech almost threw it away with the game against NCSU. They're going to probably need to get to 9-7 in conference, and the next four games give them their best shot. Closing the season with @Clemson, Duke, UNC, and @FSU isn't going to be a picnic. They can beat anybody though, so I expect them to get it done.

Miami has a lot of work left to do. Those three losses to Va Tech, @NCSU, and @Maryland really hurt. If they're 6-4 right now, I think they're a shoe-in. Instead, they have to win the last three (@UVa, @Ga Tech, and NCSU) and get one of the games against UNC, @FSU, and BC. They can certainly do it, but 7-9 looks like a real possibility.

[jimsumner]

RE: Miami

McClinton is playing as well right now as anyone in the ACC. But his brief display of ill-humor in the OSU game could well put Miami in the NIT. That was a big win they needed on their resume.

[CDu]

RE: Miami

McClinton is playing as well right now as anyone in the ACC. But his brief display of ill-humor in the OSU game could well put Miami in the NIT. That was a big win they needed on their resume.

McClinton definitely cost Miami that OSU game. But I think their failures to put away two bad teams (Maryland and UVa) will be their undoing. If they get to 8-8 in conference, though, they will probably be okay.

Meanwhile, FSU is in the middle of a god-awful game against UVa. They really can't afford to lose this game.

[pfrduke]

McClinton definitely cost Miami that OSU game. But I think their failures to put away two bad teams (Maryland and UVa) will be their undoing. If they get to 8-8 in conference, though, they will probably be okay.

Meanwhile, FSU is in the middle of a god-awful game against UVa. They really can't afford to lose this game.

Got the offense together a bit in the second half and picked up a much needed win. Now 19-5, 6-3.

Totally agree on Miami. Miami and Wake are the only teams in the top 8 to lose to teams in the bottom 4, and Miami's done it twice. It'll be their own fault if they don't make the tourney - those are teams they have to beat.

[CDu]

Got the offense together a bit in the second half and picked up a much needed win. Now 19-5, 6-3.

Totally agree on Miami. Miami and Wake are the only teams in the top 8 to lose to teams in the bottom 4, and Miami's done it twice. It'll be their own fault if they don't make the tourney - those are teams they have to beat.

Yeah, FSU finally woke up. They absolutely HAD to have that win given the rest of their schedule. Two wins is pretty doable. Three might have been tricky.

Meanwhile, BC has a shot to solidify their case tonight. They're up 4 at the half against Clemson. A win there would put them in pretty good shape at 7 wins with NCSU and Ga Tech to close the season.

[CDu]

Well, it looks like Clemson is going to close this one out. They've basically played a two-man game on offense in the latter part of the second have with (tell me if you've heard this before) Oglesby and Booker. The press and a few BIG shots by Oglesby got them out in front, and Booker is mopping up late to maintain the lead.

Clemson just killed BC on the boards in the second half. Sykes has gotten a ton of offensive boards. Booker has dominated the defensive boards. He's just a beast when he wants to be (and when the Tigers are devoted to getting him the ball).

[geraldsneighbor]

I'm borderline pissed how Yahoo has chosen in their "Power Rankings" to rank us fifth.
1. UNC
2. Wake
3. Florida State (I think we did beat them in Trailorhasse by 8)
4. Clemson
5. Duke

How accurate are power rankings when the first place team is 5th?

[arydolphin]

Very nice win for Clemson on the road tonight at BC, coming back after being down at the half. Booker is a beast down low as another poster pointed out, and BC did not look strong at all on the boards, I'll be interested to see what the rebound differential is after the game.

BC will be amped up to have Duke in their house on Sunday night, but I think that Duke will be able to match up pretty well with BC.

Oglesby gets a dunk at the end of this game, and the BC crowd rains down boos on him. It's the loudest they've been over the last 5 minutes of the game. How funny.

[throatybeard]

All of this speculation about the middle tier is utterly pointless unless one considers the automatic bids and all the other potential at-large bids from the other conferences. Some years 8-8 is decent. Some years 9-7 isn't. All of this depends on the whole field, not some vague idea of what an NCAAT team from the ACC is.

This is why, though I think he's silly for starting so early, Lunardi knows what's up. He's looking at the whole field, which is what matters.

[CDu]

All of this speculation about the middle tier is utterly pointless unless one considers the automatic bids and all the other potential at-large bids from the other conferences. Some years 8-8 is decent. Some years 9-7 isn't. All of this depends on the whole field, not some vague idea of what an NCAAT team from the ACC is.

This is why, though I think he's silly for starting so early, Lunardi knows what's up. He's looking at the whole field, which is what matters.

Technically, by your description, even what Lunardi does is pointless, as he doesn't know where the automatic bids are going either. What we're effectively discussing is positioning within the middle tier to give themselves a strong case. We're obviously making assumptions, but it's not like we're trying to etch anything in stone.

For the record, 9-7 is almost exclusively decent in the ACC. Very few (like maybe two or three ever I think) haven't made the tourney with a winning ACC record). If you get to 9-7 in the ACC, you're pretty sure to get in barring some AMAZING upsets in the conference tourneys.

It's simply interesting (to some - apparently not to you) to follow the ups and downs of the middle teams in the ACC as well as the top teams. But thanks for telling me that what I'm talking about is pointless. I could point out that all the breathless talk of the matchups in our game tonight is pointless too, as we'll see what happens in less than 13 hours. I could say the same about a LOT of things posted on this board. But it being pointless doesn't necessarily mean it's not still fun to talk about.

[InaudibleWords]

I'm borderline pissed how Yahoo has chosen in their "Power Rankings" to rank us fifth.
1. UNC
2. Wake
3. Florida State (I think we did beat them in Trailorhasse by 8)
4. Clemson
5. Duke

How accurate are power rankings when the first place team is 5th?

Yeah, it's a little ridiculous. I saw that as well and did a double take. My only guess at an explanation is that the reporter wasn't looking at week to week momentum... but it's a pretty thin argument and if you ask me, there's some bias going on in that list. Florida State?!? Color me confused.

[CDu]

I'm borderline pissed how Yahoo has chosen in their "Power Rankings" to rank us fifth.
1. UNC
2. Wake
3. Florida State (I think we did beat them in Trailorhasse by 8)
4. Clemson
5. Duke

How accurate are power rankings when the first place team is 5th?

I have no problem with our spot in those Power Rankings. Just to be clear, Power Rankings don't necessarily mean ranking of best team or team with the best resume. Power Rankings are generally heavily weighting recent performance. It's more of a "who's hot" measure.

Given that we got pounded by Clemson and barely snuck past Miami at home (while FSU won at Clemson), I'm not that offended. We're clearly not a hot team right now.

The thing I'm confused by is that they still have Wake #2, despite Wake ALSO getting housed last week.

[jv001]

I'm borderline pissed how Yahoo has chosen in their "Power Rankings" to rank us fifth.
1. UNC
2. Wake
3. Florida State (I think we did beat them in Trailorhasse by 8)
4. Clemson
5. Duke

How accurate are power rankings when the first place team is 5th?

Any ranking is just someone's opinion and since we are America's most hated it's not surprise that we are rated 5th. This list cannot be taken seriously when Wake is still rated #2. Go Duke!