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View Full Version : Heels leapfrog Deacs and Devils in AP poll



FerryFor50
02-02-2009, 04:03 PM
Sigh.

I know polls don't matter, but it's pretty annoying to see UNC jump over Duke and Wake after barely winning at FSU. They all have the same records, and Duke lost to Wake - it's not like they lost to GT. And Wake beat Carolina.

Must be a lot of tarhole fans in the AP...

CameronBornAndBred
02-02-2009, 04:17 PM
They were better positioned to make that jump because they were 5th. The coaches had them at 6, so it would have been remarkable there. Right now, any of the top 5 teams could easily claim #1, and before the year is up they might. (Or they might again)

SMO
02-02-2009, 04:23 PM
Sigh.

I know polls don't matter, but it's pretty annoying to see UNC jump over Duke and Wake after barely winning at FSU. They all have the same records, and Duke lost to Wake - it's not like they lost to GT. And Wake beat Carolina.

Must be a lot of tarhole fans in the AP...

The AP writers voted for UNC #1 to start the year, so many of them will look for evidence that they were correct (confirmation bias). UNC's recent W's provide enough support to vote them up. That said, UNC does have the best mix of talent and experience in the nation. I'm just not sure they're the best team but a lot of voters won't care about that.

brevity
02-02-2009, 04:27 PM
I'm not seeing the problem. UNC didn't lose last week; Duke did.

Anyway, the coaches' poll keeps Duke ahead: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=3879284

A comparison:

AP
1. Connecticut
2. Oklahoma
3. UNC
4. Duke
5. Louisville
6. Pittsburgh
7. Wake Forest

ESPN/USA Today
1. Connecticut
2. Oklahoma
3. Duke
4. UNC
5. Pittsburgh
6. Wake Forest
7. Louisville

Don't get too attached -- Connecticut plays at Louisville tonight.

moonpie23
02-02-2009, 04:49 PM
Mark Twain said "there are lies, DAMN lies, and the AP Mens Basketball Polls"


i think it was twain......coulda been frank mcquire...

hurleyfor3
02-02-2009, 04:58 PM
I think unc *is* better than us, at least for now. It would be neat if uconn were to lose so Jeff Capel could be #1. But only for a week. Then he loses and we beat unc making us #1 again.

sagegrouse
02-02-2009, 05:18 PM
Sigh.

I know polls don't matter, but it's pretty annoying to see UNC jump over Duke and Wake after barely winning at FSU. They all have the same records, and Duke lost to Wake - it's not like they lost to GT. And Wake beat Carolina.

Must be a lot of tarhole fans in the AP...

UNC has gone longer without a loss than either Wake or Duke. Interesting that, despite losing to Wake, Duke remained ahead of those guys. Doesn't help, I suppose, to lose to the last place team.

sagegrouse

4decadedukie
02-02-2009, 05:24 PM
A month from now -- with lots of key games in all the major conferences concluded -- we'll obviously have far clearer and more realistic national rankings. For now, let's concentrate on Clemson, Miami, UNC and BC.

shadowfax336
02-02-2009, 05:30 PM
or just on clemson

NYC Duke Fan
02-02-2009, 05:49 PM
As UCONN loses to Louisville tonight .

jimbonelson
02-02-2009, 05:55 PM
We will know next week if we are better or not

roywhite
02-02-2009, 06:21 PM
The AP writers voted for UNC #1 to start the year, so many of them will look for evidence that they were correct (confirmation bias). UNC's recent W's provide enough support to vote them up. That said, UNC does have the best mix of talent and experience in the nation. I'm just not sure they're the best team but a lot of voters won't care about that.

FWIW (and polls at this point don't mean much) UNC had a very close call at FSU and were very fortunate to win (and fortunate that Leonard Hamilton was the opposing coach).

I just don't buy the "UNC is really the best team" line. I'd prefer to believe my own eyes.

Qwerty
02-02-2009, 08:00 PM
A month from now -- with lots of key games in all the major conferences concluded -- we'll obviously have far clearer and more realistic national rankings. For now, let's concentrate on Clemson, Miami, UNC and BC.


Any rational person would agree that the further you get in a season, the more accurate the polls should get as predictions for the postseason. In an article by Barry Jacobs from a few months ago, however, there was an interesting bit of data (that I haven't really seen discussed yet).

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/articles/?p=26043

In only 5 of the last 20 years did the preseason #1 win the national championship ('90, '92, '96, '04 and '07). 25% isn't very impressive.

Yet the final AP was even worse! It was only correct 3 times ('92, '95 and '01). The pollsters seem to actually get worse with more information, if you only consider the #1 spot.

ArkieDukie
02-02-2009, 08:03 PM
I'm not seeing the problem. UNC didn't lose last week; Duke did.

Anyway, the coaches' poll keeps Duke ahead: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=3879284

A comparison:

AP
1. Connecticut
2. Oklahoma
3. UNC
4. Duke
5. Louisville
6. Pittsburgh
7. Wake Forest

ESPN/USA Today
1. Connecticut
2. Oklahoma
3. Duke
4. UNC
5. Pittsburgh
6. Wake Forest
7. Louisville

Don't get too attached -- Connecticut plays at Louisville tonight.

Go Louisville! I really dislike the UConnVicts; it makes me quite ill to see them atop both polls.

Lord Ash
02-02-2009, 08:04 PM
No real problem with UNC getting that spot. They are very, very good, a few hiccups (that all teams experience) notwithstanding.

Shame we have such a tough ACC schedule this year... I do think it will bite us a bit as far as polls... that is what it is, of course, but...

BTW, will our one week in the poll increase any sort of record? Like "Years ranked #1 at least once" or something?

DukeDevilDeb
02-02-2009, 08:20 PM
Go Louisville! I really dislike the UConnVicts; it makes me quite ill to see them atop both polls.

I hate to tell you this, but it is 8:18 pm ET, and the UConn/Louisville game is still going on with the score UCONN 47, Louisville 31.

I suspect the previous poster was engaging in wishful thinking. I agree that I would love to see UConn lose, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen unless Louisville makes a Duke run! :D

roywhite
02-02-2009, 08:51 PM
I hate to tell you this, but it is 8:18 pm ET, and the UConn/Louisville game is still going on with the score UCONN 47, Louisville 31.

I suspect the previous poster was engaging in wishful thinking. I agree that I would love to see UConn lose, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen unless Louisville makes a Duke run! :D

UCon and Thabeet in particular look very formidable.

dukestheheat
02-02-2009, 09:48 PM
Now this is funny, because the only poll I look at is the USA Today/ESPN poll, and what do ya know!? They'd got the Holes at 4 and DUKE at 3.

Order has been restored.

Dude! You got to get your literature down pat and start reading the right STUFF!

Anything that has Duke slanted over the Holes, I put full stock in that; anything trotting the other way, toward the lesser shade of blue, I defenestrate that information.

dukestheheat.

HoopsFan
02-02-2009, 09:52 PM
As UCONN loses to Louisville tonight .

Hope you didn't take that prediction to the bank...

UrinalCake
02-03-2009, 07:34 AM
In only 5 of the last 20 years did the preseason #1 win the national championship ('90, '92, '96, '04 and '07). 25% isn't very impressive.

Yet the final AP was even worse! It was only correct 3 times ('92, '95 and '01). The pollsters seem to actually get worse with more information, if you only consider the #1 spot.

I actually think 25% is pretty good. There are a lot of teams and a lot of unexpected things can happen. Also, in the preseason you have teams that have lost guys and have freshmen coming in that are unknown quantities. Predicting the overall winner in any sport is tough, so doing it right 1 out of 4 times is not bad.

That is an interesting stat about the final poll being less accurate.

hq2
02-03-2009, 09:42 AM
Who cares what the polls say? We'll get to prove it on the court next weekend.

Devil in the Blue Dress
02-03-2009, 09:58 AM
Let 'em enjoy being ranked #1 ..... new rankings come out next week!

alteran
02-03-2009, 10:00 AM
Doesn't help, I suppose, to lose to the last place team.

sagegrouse

Ironically, it DOES help to lose to the last place team if there's an ACC tiebreaker!

davekay1971
02-03-2009, 10:39 AM
I don't care much about polls or "bracketology" this time of the year - in a month, it starts to matter a little more with seeding and tourney locations. Clearly Duke, UNC, and Wake are all in the discussion for 1 seeds, and chances are that of those 3, either the ACC will get 2 1's and a 2, or 1 1 and 2 2's (if that makes any sense).

However, looking at Lunardi's bracketology sometimes provides fun potential matchups (though they are, at this point, complete fantasy).

Right now he'd have Duke playing ACC giant-slayer Morgan State in the first round, followed by a potential rematch with Bob "I Sold My Soul Long Ago" Huggins and the Fighting Bootleggers in the second round. Aside from the fact that WVU is a potentially dangerous team, I'd love to dish out a little cold revenge to Huggy-bear this year...

-jk
02-03-2009, 11:28 AM
Ironically, it DOES help to lose to the last place team if there's an ACC tiebreaker!

I think the ACC tie breaker should start at the bottom, as a loss to a better team is more forgivable.

-jk