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ice-9
01-28-2009, 03:32 AM
I've seen various arguments about which conference is better on the DBR front page, here in the forums, and of course everywhere else on the Internet. My friend and I recently had a big debate about this very topic, even going to the point of drawing up a mythical ACC-Big East Challenge and going through each match-up to decide which team should win.

We did enough research I thought it would be a shame if we didn't capture the thinking and results somehow, so I posted our findings on the Bleacher Report: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/116456-the-acc-big-east-challenge-which-is-the-better-conference

Please check it out and let me know what you think. You can probably guess where my bias lies. ;)

P.S. Bleacher Report is an interesting site but God awful slow. I hope the team there is able to upgrade their network infrastructure and/or optimize code.

DukieBoy
01-28-2009, 02:42 PM
It looks like it would be very interesting. I think Duke v. Louisville would be a great game. Another would be Clemson v. Marquette. Clemson's press against Marquettes guards would be something great to watch. And of course, watching Thabeet manhandle Hansbrough on D would be great to watch. In all, I think this is a good strategy to make it a fair challenge.

juise
01-28-2009, 02:51 PM
In all, I think this is a good strategy to make it a fair challenge.

I agree. I like the method of downselecting Big East teams because I have always said that pitting the Big East's top 12 against the ACC is not a fair comparison. I'm not sure I would use the media's preseason ranking as a guide, but using computer polls or overall record is flawed, too.

Given those match-ups, I think the conferences look very even. It could easily go 6-6 or 7-5 (with either team winning).

rockymtn devil
01-28-2009, 03:16 PM
It looks like it would be very interesting. I think Duke v. Louisville would be a great game. Another would be Clemson v. Marquette. Clemson's press against Marquettes guards would be something great to watch. And of course, watching Thabeet manhandle Hansbrough on D would be great to watch. In all, I think this is a good strategy to make it a fair challenge.

Marquette would have no answer for Clemson's size. Marquette is a fun team who has had the great fortune of playing the worst of the Big East at the front end of its conference schedule. It can't handle size and it can't handle a zone. Some would say the same about Duke. IMO, Duke is a much more talented, much more complete team than the GOLDen eagles.

I think top to bottom, the Big East has more quality teams. But that's not surprising, it has 16 teams after all. In terms of quality at the top, I'll go with the ACC. Put differently, if you were to put the 28 teams that make up the two conferences into a tournament, I'm confident that the winner of the tournament would be from the ACC more often than not.

CameronBornAndBred
01-28-2009, 05:38 PM
It would be a more interesting match up then the Big 10 has provided. I think it would be great, if only because it is such a contested argument, whereas nobody asks if the Big 10 is better. I don't know how they would handle the disparity in the number of teams, but if they figured it out it would be a blast.

ice-9
01-29-2009, 02:19 AM
Thanks for the comments guys. The recent Wake win makes me think that even if Pittsburgh was selected to the challenge the ACC might still come out 7-5 but it'll be close. Here's the copy-paste of the article...

____________________________________________

Accurate as of January 28, 2008

At the start of the season, the popular perception was that the Big East is the best conference in the nation—perhaps the best men's basketball conference in history. While the latter claim may be exaggerated, certainly, the Big East has proved powerful, as evidenced by its eight teams in the top 25 AP ranking.

However, the ACC is also making a claim for the best conference in the nation. That claim is certainly backed up by computer ratings: the RPI, KenPom, and Sagarin all have the ACC as the No. 1 rated conference. The ACC also has the best winning percentage and a favorable head-to-head record against the Big East.

So...which conference is the best? One way to answer this is to imagine an ACC-Big East Challenge; which conference wins when teams are matched up? The difficulty here is that the Big East has 16 teams while the ACC has 12 teams. Which teams play who?

1. To determine rankings within a conference, I used each conference’s own preseason ranking by the media. This is realistic because games would have to be scheduled before the season can begin, so preseason rankings are the best indicator.

This is also interesting because given the season is past the halfway mark, we now have data to judge who is more likely to win in a given matchup.

2. In the challenge, the Big East selects 12 members to play against the ACC. One fair method of doing so is to take the third out of every fourth team from the Big East, which means teams ranked No. 3, No. 7, No. 11, and No. 15 are excluded.

Thus the Big East’s preseason No. 1, No. 2, and No. 4 ranked teams would play the ACC's preseason No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 teams. This way, the Big East will have 12 teams selected that are roughly representative of the entire 16.

If you exclude every fourth team it would be disadvantageous to the ACC; but if you exclude every 1st team it would be disadvantageous to the Big East. Therefore, excluding either the second or third seems more fair. For the purpose of this exercise, we exclude the third team.

3. All games are played on a neutral court.

Going with the above algorithm, the mythical ACC-Big East Challenge would produce the following matchups.

UNC vs. UConn
Duke vs. Louisville
Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame
Miami vs. Villanova
Clemson vs. Marquette
Virginia Tech vs. Syracuse
Maryland vs. West Virginia
Georgia Tech vs. Providence
NC State vs. Rutgers
Florida State vs. Seton Hall
Boston College vs. St. John's
Virginia vs. South Florida

Big East teams excluded: Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Cincinnati, and DePaul

Who wins? Let's take it team by team...

UNC vs. UConn
The popular view is that UConn is UNC's strongest challenger to the NCAA crown. Implicit in that statement is UConn's status as an underdog. Even though UConn is currently ranked higher and has one fewer loss, UNC is still widely considered the nation's best team. Winner: UNC

Duke vs. Louisville
Louisville has the better frontcourt, while Duke has the better backcourt. This matchup seems like a toss-up with Louisville playing its basketball as of late, but Duke is currently No. 1 in the AP, Coaches', KenPom, Sagarin, and RPI. In the absence of better data, Duke gets the nod. Winner: Duke (in a defensive slugfest)

Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame
Wake has turned out better than expected with a potential first team All-American in Jeff Teague and an imposing frontcourt, while Notre Dame has faded over the course of the season. Wake is in the top 15 in all the rankings and computer ratings, whereas Notre Dame is on their way out of the top 25. Winner: Wake Forest

Miami vs. Villanova
Neither team has lived up to preseason expectations, but both teams are still projected to make the NCAA tourney. Miami's best two wins are against Kentucky (on the road) and Florida State, whereas Villanova's best two wins are against Seton Hall and Temple. However, Villanova is ranked No. 21 in both the AP and Coaches' poll while Miami is unranked; Villanova also does better in the computer ratings. Winner: Villanova

Clemson vs. Marquette
Marquette’s best wins are against Notre Dame, WVU, Villanova, and Wisconsin with losses to Tennessee and Dayton. Clemson’s best wins are against Illinois, USC, and Alabama with losses to UNC and Wake Forest. Even though Clemson has the better computer numbers, Marquette is ranked higher in the polls. In this matchup, Marquette’s veteran guards handle the Clemson press. Winner: Marquette

Virginia Tech vs. Syracuse
Virginia Tech had some buzzer-beating heartbreakers in the early season but is playing its best basketball lately by winning nine of its last 10, with the loss against Duke. Still, Syracuse is ranked No. 15 and has wins against Notre Dame, Memphis, Kansas, and Florida. Syracuse’s zone will likely to negate Virginia Tech’s athleticism. Winner: Syracuse

Maryland vs. West Virginia
Maryland is the country's strangest team with a convincing win against Michigan State and blowouts against Georgetown, Gonzaga, and Duke coupled with a very bad loss against Morgan State. Bob Huggins has West Virginia dangerous again with a top 20 rating in KenPom, Sagarin, and RPI rankings. Winner: West Virginia

Georgia Tech vs. Providence
Providence has no good wins and some bad losses. However, it has a 5-2 record in the Big East, whereas Georgia Tech is winless at 0-6 in the ACC. Georgia Tech is a better team than its record indicates (three of those six ACC losses went into overtime), but until proven otherwise, advantage Big East. Winner: Providence

NC State vs. Rutgers
Rutgers’ 0-7 record in the Big East says everything you need to know. While NC State isn’t that much better at 2-4 in the ACC, NC State has significantly better computer numbers (~100 to Rutgers’ ~150). Winner: NC State

Florida State vs. Seton Hall
Florida State is a likely NCAA tournament team with wins against Florida, Cal, and Cincinnati and no bad losses. Seton Hall, in the meantime, is 1-6 in the Big East (albeit with a decent win against Georgetown) and has little chance of making the NCAA tournament. Florida State’s impressive defense likely wins. Winner: Florida State

Boston College vs. St. John's
Boston College defeated Providence by five points; Providence in turn defeated St. John’s by 21 points. One can thus infer that Boston College will likely beat St. John’s. Moreover, Boston College has a better overall résumé and computer numbers. Winner: Boston College

Virginia vs. South Florida
The two teams picked at the bottom of their respective conferences have played to preseason expectations: Virginia is 7-9 overall and 1-4 in the ACC, but South Florida is possibly worse at 7-12 overall and 2-5 in the Big East. South Florida is better according to KenPom, whereas Virginia is better according to Sagarin; the tiebreaker then is the RPI, which has Virginia at No. 102 and South Florida at No. 155. Winner: Virginia

Result: ACC with seven wins vs. Big East with five wins

The ACC comes out with a narrow win versus the Big East. The results tell us what we already know; that the ACC is slightly better at the top and much better at the bottom, whereas the Big East dominates the middle.

One matchup that could significantly change the result is that Notre Dame was selected for the challenge instead of Pittsburgh. What if Pittsburgh played Wake Forest instead? If Pittsburgh won what would be an epic match (star guards, star forwards), the ACC and the Big East would be even at 6-6.

Despite popular perception that the Big East is the best conference in the land, clearly the ACC can stake a valid claim to that title. In this mythical ACC-Big East challenge, the ACC is even better.

rockymtn devil
01-29-2009, 11:25 AM
It would be a more interesting match up then the Big 10 has provided. I think it would be great, if only because it is such a contested argument, whereas nobody asks if the Big 10 is better. I don't know how they would handle the disparity in the number of teams, but if they figured it out it would be a blast.

I believe the predecessor to the ACC/B10 Challenge was the ACC/Big East Challenge. Big East coaches didn't like having to play a tough OOC game and the challenge ended at their request. That led to the creation of the current Challenge.

ACCBBallFan
01-29-2009, 12:25 PM
Always tough to compare a 16 team BE to a 12 team ACC. Pretty even at the top, BE advantage in the mid tier (Syr, Nova, W VA, G-town and Notre Dame over Miami, FSU, VA T , BC and MD) but also BE has 5 of the 6 worst teams across the two conferences:

01 12754 BE UCONN beat Gonzaga Nova, W VA & Notre Dame, lost to G-town
03 12229 ACC Wake Forest beat Duke, UNC, Clemson, BYU & Baylor, Lost to VA Tech

04 13111 ACC Duke beat G-town,Xav & Purdue, split w Mich, lost to Wake
05 12816 BE Pittsburgh beat G-town & W VA, lost to Louisv & Nova

06 12640 ACC UNC lost to BC & Wake, beat Clemson, Mich St, Notre Dame & FSU
07 11807 BE Louisville lost to MN, UNLV & W Ky, beat Pitt,Syr Nova , Notre Dame,& KY

10 11338 BE Marquette beat Nova ,WV Notre Dame, Wisc, Cincy & Prov lost to Dayton & TN
11 11177 ACC Clemson lost to Wake & UNC beat Illini

15 10747 BE Syracuse beat Memphis, Notre Dame & FL, lost to Louisv, G-town Prov & Clev St

21 9595 BE Villanova lost to UCONN, Louisv TX & Marq,, beat Pitt, Niagara, Temple URI, St. John's, Seton Hall & St Joe's
22 9593 BE West Virginia lost to Pitt, UCONN, Marq, UK,& Davidson beat G-town, Ohio St.Miami-OH, St John's, & MS
23 9829 BE Georgetown beat UCONN,Syr, Memphis & Prov, lost to Duke, Pitt , W VA,N Dame TN Cincy & Seton Hall

35 8808 ACC Miami-FL lost to UCONN, UNC, Clemson, tOSU, VA Tech & NC St, beat UK, FSU, MD, BC & St. John's
36 8960 ACC FSU beat FL, Calif,MD, Cincy & UVA lost to Duke,Pitt UNC, Miami-FL & NW

44 8469 BE Notre Dame beat G-town & TX, lost to UNC, UCONN, Syr Louisv, Ohio St. Marq & St.John's

69 8076 ACC Va Tech lost to Duke, Xav, Wisc, Seton Hall beat Wake, Miami-FLBC St. John's &UVA
71 7843 ACC BC beat UNC,MD UAB, Iowa NC St & Prov, lost to Wake, Purdue, Miami-FL, VA Tech, SLU & Harvard
72 7917 ACC Maryland beat Mich St , Mich & GA Tech, lost to Duke, G-town, Zaga, Miami-FL FSU BC & Morgan St.

87 7446 BE Prov beat Syr, Cincy(2), URI, St. John's & DePau, lost to G-town, Marq, Baylor, St Mary's BC &NE
89 7534 BE Cincy beat UN LV ,UAB & MS St & St John's lost to UCONN Xav, Marq, Memphis, FSU, Prov (2)

108 6455 ACC NC St beat Miami-FL, GA Tech & ECU, lost to Duke Clemson, Marq FL, FSU Davids & BC
117 6187 ACC UVA beat GA Tech & VMI lost to UNC, Syr, Xav, MN, FSU VA Tech,, Auburn, Liberty,

121 5981 BE St. John's lost to Pitt, UCONN, Nova, WV, Miami-FL, BC, VA Tech,Cincy & Prov beat Notre Dame
122 5968 BE Seton Hall beat G-town, USC & VA Tech, lost to Uconn, Syr, Nova, Memphis, Notre Dame, W VA, IUPUI & James Madison

132 5719 ACC GA Tech lost to Duke, Clemson, MD, USC, Penn St, NC St, Alab,UVA .& Ill-Chic beat Vandy & GA
141 5356 BE USF beat DePaul, Murray St & NE

157 4836 BE Rutgers
171 4593 BE DePaul beat Lberty & Ill-Chic & lost to UCLA, Marq,NW, Calif, USF, SLU bad loss to Morgan St

shadowfax336
01-29-2009, 01:08 PM
When half of a conference has records at .500 or below, that just indicates that there is some symmetry in the records and the the distribution of talent is even... It doesn't indicate anything positive or negative about the overall talent level, just how it is distributed. You can't have your whole league over .500 in conference play... Its just impossible. I fail to see the point that DBR was trying to make.

shadowfax336
01-29-2009, 01:36 PM
When half of a conference has records at .500 or below, that just indicates that there is some symmetry in the records and the the distribution of talent is even... It doesn't indicate anything positive or negative about the overall talent level, just how it is distributed. You can't have your whole league over .500 in conference play... Its just impossible. I fail to see the point that DBR was trying to make.

Why is this here? This is more a comment on the logic of the headlines page than a comparison of league strength

JDev
01-29-2009, 02:12 PM
Many of the media talking heads (Bilas included) have been on record saying the Big East is the best conference, even before the season. The fact that the ACC has had three teams ranked number one has not changed their opinion, and it won't. No matter what happens, it is like justification or a self-fulfilled prophecy of their selection. If the top Big East teams beat up on the lower ones, it is because the top is so strong, not because the bottom half is bad. If a number of the top teams take several league losses it is because the league is so good, not because the top teams are overrated. No matter what happens it is used as proof of the league's strength. I think the ACC would prevail in the challenge you have suggested and I think it is a better league.

DukieBoy
01-29-2009, 07:37 PM
Many of the media talking heads (Bilas included) have been on record saying the Big East is the best conference, even before the season. The fact that the ACC has had three teams ranked number one has not changed their opinion, and it won't. No matter what happens, it is like justification or a self-fulfilled prophecy of their selection. If the top Big East teams beat up on the lower ones, it is because the top is so strong, not because the bottom half is bad. If a number of the top teams take several league losses it is because the league is so good, not because the top teams are overrated. No matter what happens it is used as proof of the league's strength. I think the ACC would prevail in the challenge you have suggested and I think it is a better league.

I agree whole heartedly. Probably the best example of this is Notre Dame. They are 12-7, 3-5 in the Big East, and are still relatively close to emerging back into the top 25. This is ridiculous. They aren't as good as predicted, but experts are saying it's only because they are facing tough competition. Anyone think they might be overrated????????

Papa John
01-29-2009, 09:25 PM
I've seen various arguments about which conference is better on the DBR front page, here in the forums, and of course everywhere else on the Internet. My friend and I recently had a big debate about this very topic, even going to the point of drawing up a mythical ACC-Big East Challenge and going through each match-up to decide which team should win.

We did enough research I thought it would be a shame if we didn't capture the thinking and results somehow, so I posted our findings on the Bleacher Report: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/116456-the-acc-big-east-challenge-which-is-the-better-conference

Please check it out and let me know what you think. You can probably guess where my bias lies. ;)

P.S. Bleacher Report is an interesting site but God awful slow. I hope the team there is able to upgrade their network infrastructure and/or optimize code.

I commend you and your friend for an interesting approach to the dilemma that this question of which conference is better represents!

I actually disagree with your outcome in the Clemson-Marquette contest, but also think some of the lower matchups amount to pushes... I agree that we'd be looking at a 6-6 or 7-5 situation if these were the matchups...

One thing that is impossible to ignore is the fact that the ACC top echelon appears to be superior to the Big East top echelon... In my take on your top-4 matchups, the ACC wins all four... Come NCAA tourney time, I am of the opinion that this will tell the tale... I think the ACC has 4 legit Final Four teams in Duke, UNC, Wake and Clemson, and that, my friend, is indeed a rare occurrence... Which makes it, to me, quite ironic that sportswriters are hyping the Big East so much this season as potentially one of the best conferences of all time... Oh, really?

I'll stick with the ACC, thank you very much!

;)

SushiChef
01-30-2009, 10:20 AM
This is in regard to the following headline posted yesterday:

"Big East - Nice On Top, Lousy On Bottom (Still)"
by DBR, January 29th, 2009 | National |

Just out of curiosity, we thought it was a good time to take a look at the standings of THE GREATEST CONFERENCE OF ALL TIME to see how everyone’s supposed betters are doing.
Marquette 7-0 18-2

Half the uberconference is at .500 or below. Very impressive! #15 Syracuse is barely over .500 in the conference at 5-4. #21 Villanova is at 4-3 in the league. Five teams - Marquette, Louisville, UConn, Pitt, and Providence - have conference records worthy of tournament play.

Also worth mentioning - Georgetown is sliding off the track with a four-game losing streak and is verging close to NIT territory.

When half your league is simply mediocre, how can you make this argument with a straight face?

I don't really understand this argument. How does looking at inter-conference records prove anything about the quality of the conference? For example, the ACC, has half of its teams below .500. I'd also argue that the teams floating around .500 in the ACC as well as the Big East could beat most teams in other conferences.

Kedsy
01-30-2009, 10:32 AM
This is in regard to the following headline posted yesterday:


I don't really understand this argument. How does looking at inter-conference records prove anything about the quality of the conference? For example, the ACC, has half of its teams below .500. I'd also argue that the teams floating around .500 in the ACC as well as the Big East could beat most teams in other conferences.

Good point. One could argue that if the Big East really was the best conference ever, and for example all 16 teams were Top 25 quality teams, then their league records would all be hovering around .500. Only top-heavy conferences have a lot of teams with great conference records.

brevity
01-30-2009, 10:41 AM
Half the uberconference is at .500 or below. Very impressive!

Come to think of it, this is a remarkably stupid and empty statement. It would have been a valid point if the writer referred to overall records, but no. (13 Big East teams have an overall winning record.) Saying that half of the teams are at .500 or below in Big East play is almost mathematically expected.

The Big East is fallible, and feel free to take swipes at them, but this is a deeply flawed approach.