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Diddy
01-24-2009, 02:16 PM
Today's Duke-UMD game is a worst case scenario for Wake and Gaudio.

Ostensibly, having a full week off before the Duke game is GOOD. Unless of course, you have to spend that week thinking about a BAD home loss. It being the first loss of the year is especially bad, becuase you are never sure how a young team will rebound after losing its first game. This is compounded by every national media outlet and commentator repeating said questions about how WFU will react.

After the VT game, WFU's only solace was the hope that Duke would have a physically and emotionally draining game against a team that usually shows up big against Duke in UMD. Gaudio had to have woken up today hoping that Duke would at least get tested, and pushed, and that Duke's key rotation would have to log heavy minutes.

Um, no. Instead, Duke blows out a quasi rival, and gets great games out of its posts, who had been struggling. Everybody shot lights out, and we play great D. Basically, everyone gets a shot of confidence going forward. Not only that, but the key rotation does not play heavy minutes. Today was little more than a light workout for the team.

Today could not have gone better. The only slight negative is that I hope Duke saved some of that outside shooting for Wednesday, cause we will need it.

Gaudio's only plus is that he can use tape of today's game to scare the bejeezus out of his team and get them to prepare hard. Given that their psyche's are probably a little frayed right now, that will be a tight rope to walk.

RainingThrees
01-24-2009, 02:19 PM
Today's Duke-UMD game is a worst case scenario for Wake and Gaudio.

Ostensibly, having a full week off before the Duke game is GOOD. Unless of course, you have to spend that week thinking about a BAD home loss. It being the first loss of the year is especially bad, becuase you are never sure how a young team will rebound after losing its first game. This is compounded by every national media outlet and commentator repeating said questions about how WFU will react.

After the VT game, WFU's only solace was the hope that Duke would have a physically and emotionally draining game against a team that usually shows up big against Duke in UMD. Gaudio had to have woken up today hoping that Duke would at least get tested, and pushed, and that Duke's key rotation would have to log heavy minutes.

Um, no. Instead, Duke blows out a quasi rival, and gets great games out of its posts, who had been struggling. Everybody shot lights out, and we play great D. Basically, everyone gets a shot of confidence going forward. Not only that, but the key rotation does not play heavy minutes. Today was little more than a light workout for the team.

Today could not have gone better. The only slight negative is that I hope Duke saved some of that outside shooting for Wednesday, cause we will need it.

Gaudio's only plus is that he can use tape of today's game to scare the bejeezus out of his team and get them to prepare hard. Given that their psyche's are probably a little frayed right now, that will be a tight rope to walk.

They should be afraid. VERY afraid.

jv001
01-24-2009, 03:19 PM
I really like Wake except when they play Duke. We need to beat the Deacs to keep those ugly tee shirts in the stands. Wake fans lead the world in rushing the court when Wake wins. You would think they won the ACC tournament or the NCAA tournament from the way they come onto the court. Act like you've been there b4. Go Duke!

BlueintheFace
01-24-2009, 04:08 PM
Wake fans lead the world in rushing the court when Wake wins. You would think they won the ACC tournament or the NCAA tournament from the way they come onto the court. Act like you've been there b4. Go Duke!

They just barely edge out Florida St. for the title there

jv001
01-24-2009, 04:12 PM
They just barely edge out Florida St. for the title there

You're right. It is pretty close and VT is in the race also. Go Duke!

geraldsneighbor
01-24-2009, 04:19 PM
They just barely edge out Florida St. for the title there

The storming of the court vs the Holes I felt was clueless. Your both top 5 teams, and you beat them on your home floor. You are supposed to do that. I just didn't understand that.

slower
01-24-2009, 04:38 PM
Everybody shot lights out...

Not so sure about that.

Kyle 3-9
Jon 4-13
Overall 42.5%

Devil in the Blue Dress
01-24-2009, 07:38 PM
Wake Forest is not to be taken lightly.

jv001
01-24-2009, 07:40 PM
Not so sure about that.

Kyle 3-9
Jon 4-13
Overall 42.5%


I'll take the 42.5% though. Kyle is not going to shoot much better from 3 point territory as that's not the strength of his game. It was good to see Jon hit those 4 threes even if it did take 13 shots. So I'm satisfied with our play going into the Wake game. I imagine it put some doubt in Wake's mind after their last performance. Go Duke!

phaedrus
01-24-2009, 08:21 PM
Not so sure about that.

Kyle 3-9
Jon 4-13
Overall 42.5%

Between missed layups by Singler, Scheyer, and Plumlee we could have easily broken 100. But that's just being greedy.

dukestheheat
01-24-2009, 08:29 PM
Ok, heads up!

Wake Forest is a great team and they are going to be very difficult to beat at home. We destroyed a Maryland team today that was almost totally outmatched in terms of athletic basketball talent; we need to feel really good about our win and also keep it in perspective.

I can't think of a better test for our Devils than this one (outside of playing over at Chapel Hill).

The first order of business is to greatly slow their all-league guard, Teague. Secondly, we must win the rebound battle. Hit our free throws along with slowing Teague and winning the boards, and we win.

You guys may think I'm crazy saying this, but here goes: I think our greatest advantage going into this particular game is WE GOT SUPERMAN AS OUR COACH.

This should give us the edge!

dukestheheat

Billy Dat
01-24-2009, 09:02 PM
I haven't seen a line for this game, but I'd be very surprised if Wake wasn't favored. We have been playing great, but have yet to square off against the elite of the conference (UNC, Wake, Clemson, Miami). Our early ACC schedule has been favorable.

They are a very capable offensive team and this will be a real test of our vaunted defense. If we let Teague break us down off the dribble, we're in trouble because he's got a nicely developed mid range game and, if he draws our bigs, has some big targets to distribute to in Johnson, Aminu and McFarland. In the words of Shooter from Hoosiers, "You gotta squeeze 'em in the paint...make him chuck it from the cheap seats...watch that purgatory they call a gym...no drive 12 feet in...that'll do". Granted, they have good shooters, but I'd rather they beat us from 3 then own the inside and win a war of front line foul attrition. Zoubek's improved play, on display in today's "game" against the Terps, will be sorely needed. The 1-3-1 trapping has been really effective, but it feels like Wake's guards should be capable of beating that kind of pressure. It will be interesting to see how K doles out that half court press. McFarland worries me...we always have a hard time with big guys like him that are aggressive on offense (for some reason, Luke Schensher and Andrew Brackman come to mind)

On offense, we've got enough weapons to go after whatever they don't primarily take away. Our 3 point shooting has steadied, and it would be nice to come out hot. We've got to put some kind of pressure on their bigs so I hope Z gets some touches. A Singler/Johnson match-up would be epic...you know Kyle won't back down from trying to drive so it will be interesting to see how Johnson defends. Scheyer should also challenge Aminu off the dribble. There are going to be great match-ups all over the floor.

This one is too close to call.

SilkyJ
01-24-2009, 09:26 PM
I haven't seen a line for this game, but I'd be very surprised if Wake wasn't favored.

Last weekend Louisville was favored over Pitt b/c Pitt was on the road, and that was #1 vs. #20, so considering this is gonna be 1 vs. 4 or something, I think you're right.

This is a big game for both teams, but there will be several (3, 4, or more) equally if not bigger games throughout the season prior to the tourney so let's not get too caught up either way.

robed deity
01-24-2009, 09:28 PM
Actually, I would LOVE if they tried to beat us with the 3. According to Pomeroy, of their FGA, 20.1 percent have come from 3-land. This ranks 342nd (!).....out of 344 teams. Their percentage (33.3 percent-192nd) isn't all that great either. The 3 pointer is simply not a big part of their offense. If given the choice, I'd rather them go bombs away from out there than have Teague knife through the lane at will.

loran16
01-24-2009, 09:35 PM
There are a few big questions that face us for the Wake game, but one I think is key that'll be way overlooked by the media (in favor of the size difference and Teague) is whether Duke can limit turnovers against Wake and thus make them play a half court game against us.

Our big men, Lance and Zoo, are prone to turning the ball over inside, and with their bigs, I can see that happening an awful lot. Teague, Aminu, Johnson (and heck even Ish Smith) can quickly turn Turnovers into instant offense.

Similarly, Teague can quickly go court to court and score a quick 2 if the D doesn't get back in time.

In essence, I compare this game very similarly to the Carolina game. Both Carolina and Wake have a variety of threats both outside and inside, and both of them can catch you off guard for easy points (Carolina with lawson).

Wake's big differences are that its depth is inside (Whereas Carolina has better outside depth imo) and that its D is better than UNC's. I think we can handle their D if we don't turn it over. But that's the big question right there, can we not turn the ball over.

If I'm Duke, I either start Mcclure, or start Zoo and give him a really really short leash. I expect to be outrebounded here, but if our D is solid we can survive that. Turnovers will be killer.

dukelifer
01-24-2009, 10:06 PM
This will be the toughest game of the season to date. The game is away and Wake Forest has just lost a game. They also know they can beat Duke based on last year's win. Duke does not match up well against this tea,. They will try to dominate the boards and try to force turnovers. Duke will play hard and Wake has shown that they are a bit fragile when pushed. I expect very close game and Duke will need to be very good in the least few minutes to pull this out.

Diddy
01-24-2009, 10:24 PM
Even though I am FAR, FAR from the most optimistic Duke fan, I want to keep some other things in perspective.

Yes, Duke gives up a lot of size. And yes, Teague is a stud. It will be a hard game.

But, for all that Duke has yet to face the top teams in conference, Wake has yet to face a top Defensive squad. WFU gets credit for beating two of the top teams in UNC and Clemson. Really? REALLY? UNC ok, sure, but it was AT Wake Forest, and UNC barely lost after playing a mediocre game. And Clemson has been soundly beaten by two of the better ACC teams. Everyone says this year is different, but it may very well be that Clemson will come back to earth now that the Conf play has started.

Wake has yet to see ANYTHING like the defensive pressure that Duke employees. Most importantly, Duke has a stellar defender at the point to take on Teague. Nolan, Jon, or Gerald will present a better defender than anyone Teague has faced. We can actually slow down Teague. If we do that, WFU will come apart. VT took Teague out of his game, and Wake sputtered. Teague will still have a good stat line, but if he really has to work for it, WFU's flow will suffer.

WFU is a great team. But Duke is also a great team. We have both played VT at our respective houses. WFU was roundly defeated by VT. VT was in control most of the game. We, OTOH, dusted VT at our place. That will stick in Wake's Mind also.

It is a toss up, but Duke's D could cause real problems for WFU.

DukePA
01-24-2009, 10:25 PM
Ok, heads up!

Wake Forest is a great team and they are going to be very difficult to beat at home. We destroyed a Maryland team today that was almost totally outmatched in terms of athletic basketball talent; we need to feel really good about our win and also keep it in perspective.

I can't think of a better test for our Devils than this one (outside of playing over at Chapel Hill).

The first order of business is to greatly slow their all-league guard, Teague. Secondly, we must win the rebound battle. Hit our free throws along with slowing Teague and winning the boards, and we win.

You guys may think I'm crazy saying this, but here goes: I think our greatest advantage going into this particular game is WE GOT SUPERMAN AS OUR COACH.

This should give us the edge!

dukestheheat

You're not crazy, except in a Cameron sort of way!

roywhite
01-24-2009, 10:41 PM
Wake has yet to see ANYTHING like the defensive pressure that Duke employees. Most importantly, Duke has a stellar defender at the point to take on Teague. Nolan, Jon, or Gerald will present a better defender than anyone Teague has faced. We can actually slow down Teague. If we do that, WFU will come apart. VT took Teague out of his game, and Wake sputtered.

Agree. Wake is many things, but rock solid is not one of them. They are prone to acting out (McFarland esp.) and not pulling together; still a young team with leadership issues. Fragile.

loran16
01-24-2009, 10:54 PM
Agree. Wake is many things, but rock solid is not one of them. They are prone to acting out (McFarland esp.) and not pulling together; still a young team with leadership issues. Fragile.

I think you're underestimating the difficulty of limiting Teague. I feel confident our half court defense can handle him, but its transition d and turnover prevention that I think will be the problem.

roywhite
01-24-2009, 11:11 PM
I think you're underestimating the difficulty of limiting Teague. I feel confident our half court defense can handle him, but its transition d and turnover prevention that I think will be the problem.

Well, perhaps. My take is that Teague is a great player, but that Wake is not a great team. Very good, but flawed enough not to be great, and definitely beatable.

SilkyJ
01-25-2009, 12:32 AM
Similarly, Teague can quickly go court to court and score a quick 2 if the D doesn't get back in time.



I think our transition D, at least off misses, is pretty darn good, but I agree TOs could be a deciding factor in the game. I expect a lot of good defense in this game, not the 100-94 game we had when JJ and cp3 went at it a few years ago.

BTW, just noticed your sig. I assume that's from one of the snrub chats, hilarious.

duketaylor
01-25-2009, 12:32 AM
with this statement, "Duke has a stellar defender at the point to take on Teague. Nolan, Jon, or Gerald will present a better defender than anyone Teague has faced."
That will be the key match-up I look for in the game. Slow the PG and force a team to play half-court, where our D is excellent.

An aside, listening to Duke games on XM, or while in Durham and getting the Duke feed, it's awesome the stuff Matthew Laurance reports from sitting behind the bench on adjustments and game decisions after time-outs as to what K's wants them to do. Just great insight into what to look for in the next few minutes. I love XM, since I'm not in Durham, yet;)

dukemomLA
01-25-2009, 12:40 AM
Going to be a tough game IMHO. Wake is a really good team with bigs.

I expect that the experienced Duke players will prevail, even on a hostile court. But I don't expect a blow-out that we saw today. (Gosh.....wasn't that marvelous!!!!) Jeer the Turtle.:)

ChicagoCrazy84
01-25-2009, 01:45 AM
I hope we can get Aminu or Johnson in foul trouble. That would be nice to limit their minutes and get them out of rhythm (like Greg Monroe). I expect Teague to get his numbers, similar to Curry in our game against Davidson. They're at home and coming off of a loss, so I expect them, especially Teague to play well. This could be a big test for composure. You know that place will be rockin and they will have a lot of energy, so we have to be able to keep our composure initially.
Coach K a lot of times when we struggle talks about Duke getting "knocked back a little bit" by a teams play and aggressiveness. While I am not a huge fan of that language, that is the case sometimes. This should not be an issue because we know they are going to be pumped up and ready to go. We're just going to have to match their aggressiveness and play with composure at the same time. It's tough to do, but with our experience, we should be able to do so.
I really don't know what to expect, truly. I keep going back and forth, Wake is at home, had a week off, and there is no way they would lose 2 in a row. At the same time, maybe they'll be too excited, Duke will take advantage and win easily, 10-15. Or it's another one of those FSU games where its just hard nosed, tough defense, and will be close at the end and Duke will pull it out. We'll see, I am pumped!

-bdbd
01-25-2009, 02:55 AM
with this statement, "Duke has a stellar defender at the point to take on Teague. Nolan, Jon, or Gerald will present a better defender than anyone Teague has faced."
That will be the key match-up I look for in the game. Slow the PG and force a team to play half-court, where our D is excellent.

An aside, listening to Duke games on XM, or while in Durham and getting the Duke feed, it's awesome the stuff Matthew Laurance reports from sitting behind the bench on adjustments and game decisions after time-outs as to what K's wants them to do. Just great insight into what to look for in the next few minutes. I love XM, since I'm not in Durham, yet;)

I agree that the key matchup/strategy will be trying to keep constant pressure on Teague, getting him out of rythm, and wearing him down. I expect our designated stopper, Gerald Henderson, to get that assignment the most. However, to keep wearing on him, expect others to rotate into that assignment.

I worry about Wake's inside strength and (relative) speed. We don't match up great with that. Wake has become a tough place to play too.

But in the end I look Duke to wear down Wake and pull out a close one. Should be a fun game! (I can just hear the folks in Chapel Hell rooting for BOTH teams to lose!) :p

Anybody else worried that we may be gaining some false confidence in the ACC, given the dearth of opponets from the top half of the conference so far -- and a really stacked stretch run schedule (5 of 7 being away at season's end). 'has the potential for a bit of a "collapse." (maybe 'letdown' would be a better word).

This team has me truly excited unlike any other in the last 4 years. Lots of potential (to the point where I'm hearing media members predicting Duke to be the top-1 or 2 preseason next year). But I want it THIS year!!

-BDBD :cool:

Diddy
01-25-2009, 04:28 AM
I agree that the key matchup/strategy will be trying to keep constant pressure on Teague, getting him out of rythm, and wearing him down. I expect our designated stopper, Gerald Henderson, to get that assignment the most. However, to keep wearing on him, expect others to rotate into that assignment.

I worry about Wake's inside strength and (relative) speed. We don't match up great with that. Wake has become a tough place to play too.

But in the end I look Duke to wear down Wake and pull out a close one. Should be a fun game! (I can just hear the folks in Chapel Hell rooting for BOTH teams to lose!) :p

Anybody else worried that we may be gaining some false confidence in the ACC, given the dearth of opponets from the top half of the conference so far -- and a really stacked stretch run schedule (5 of 7 being away at season's end). 'has the potential for a bit of a "collapse." (maybe 'letdown' would be a better word).

This team has me truly excited unlike any other in the last 4 years. Lots of potential (to the point where I'm hearing media members predicting Duke to be the top-1 or 2 preseason next year). But I want it THIS year!!

-BDBD :cool:

I have to disagree with your defensive assignment. On the face of it, Gerald would make the most sense to guard Teague. Duke cannot do that for large tracts of the game, however. If G guards Teague, then either Nolan or Jon would be forced to guard Aminu or Johnson (whichever Singler doesn't guard). While I agree that G could slow Teague down, big time, forcing Nolan or Jon to guard a big like those guys would be "un smart." Those guys are too skilled for Nolan or Jon to handle. They could back our guys down, or shoot over them. G has the ability/size/strength/athleticism to slow down one of WFU's bigs.

I expect that G will spend time on Teague, either as part of a switch or to take advantage of matchups (or to stem a bloodletting, but lets all hope it doesn't get that far)

Nolan will get first crack at Teague, and he can handle it. Whereas G could lock down Teague, Nolan can't. But Nolan can slow Teague down, which will throw a monkey wrench into the whole system.

grossbus
01-25-2009, 08:52 AM
i expect a physically rough game. it seems that always happens at wake and the officials seem to always let it happen. we need another fast start as we had against md.

mehmattski
01-25-2009, 11:14 AM
I have to disagree with your defensive assignment. On the face of it, Gerald would make the most sense to guard Teague. Duke cannot do that for large tracts of the game, however. If G guards Teague, then either Nolan or Jon would be forced to guard Aminu or Johnson (whichever Singler doesn't guard). While I agree that G could slow Teague down, big time, forcing Nolan or Jon to guard a big like those guys would be "un smart." Those guys are too skilled for Nolan or Jon to handle. They could back our guys down, or shoot over them. G has the ability/size/strength/athleticism to slow down one of WFU's bigs.

I expect that G will spend time on Teague, either as part of a switch or to take advantage of matchups (or to stem a bloodletting, but lets all hope it doesn't get that far)

Nolan will get first crack at Teague, and he can handle it. Whereas G could lock down Teague, Nolan can't. But Nolan can slow Teague down, which will throw a monkey wrench into the whole system.

Certainly during the first four to six minutes of the game, what you've described will be the likely scenario- Jon, Nolan, and Gerald... and sometimes even Kyle will guard Teague depending on the situation. Our defense isn't so stagnant as to have one guy following another all the way across the court.

Within that 4-6 minute range, though, I expect our best on-the-ball defender to enter the game. Dave McClure will shut down Teague the way he took Stephon Curry out of the first half of the Davidson game, and the way he finally shut down Jimmy Baron against Rhode Island in November.

Curry is a better player than Teague, but Wake has a better supporting cast than Davidson. I am not at all worried about our ability to play defense at our elite level in this game. If our offense can retain the fluidity with which we played against Maryland, I can see us pulling out a 10 point victory on the road.

moonpie23
01-25-2009, 11:39 AM
last year, it SEEMED that wake "snuck up"on us....i do NOT expect that this year. K and the staff will have the team prepared...Our D will be tough..


Mcfalane will be a handfull and Z will have to have a great game to keep him from going off.....Z needs to make HIM work on defense hard too..

limiting teague will be just as easy as limiting curry, or rice.......you just have to minimize the damage..WAKE, however had other good players. Just shutting teague down won't do it...i DO agree that if you can take him out of the game, it will fluster wake some...


this is gonna be an awesome game....

houstondukie
01-25-2009, 11:50 AM
Not sure if someone already mentioned this, but Bob Knight said that "Duke was talking about Wake Forest in the lockeroom during HALFTIME" of yesterday's Duke v. Maryland.

I like it.

camion
01-25-2009, 11:57 AM
Before the season I marked this down as one of our two most likely losses with the other being the game at UNC. I still think that. I know we can win this game, but I give Wake an edge with them being the home team. That's a big thing.

I'll be pulling hard and will be thrilled if we can get the win.

houstondukie
01-25-2009, 11:58 AM
This game is too close to call. Either team can play great basketball and still lose.

Unfortunately, I think foul trouble will make the difference. And free throw shooting.

Whichever team avoids foul trouble and hits their free throws will win.

Diddy
01-25-2009, 01:13 PM
Not sure if someone already mentioned this, but Bob Knight said that "Duke was talking about Wake Forest in the lockeroom during HALFTIME" of yesterday's Duke v. Maryland.

I like it.

I heard that comment, and I wondered about it. Was Bob being serious or facetious? I didn't think K let anyone into the lockerroom during halftime. Unless one of the players said this in an interview, I have to wonder at the veracity of this comment. If it were true, it would be tremendous bulletin board material for UMD in the rematch at UMD.

I think Bob was speculating that Duke was already looking ahead at the half time break. I don't see K or the staff doing that.

houstondukie
01-25-2009, 01:39 PM
I heard that comment, and I wondered about it. Was Bob being serious or facetious? I didn't think K let anyone into the lockerroom during halftime. Unless one of the players said this in an interview, I have to wonder at the veracity of this comment. If it were true, it would be tremendous bulletin board material for UMD in the rematch at UMD.

I think Bob was speculating that Duke was already looking ahead at the half time break. I don't see K or the staff doing that.

Coach K and Coach Knight have a great relationship nowadays. I wouldn't be surprised if he had talked to Coach K on the phone after the maryland game and before the notre dame/uconn college gameday show.

I can't remember which coach, perhaps Bob Knight, who said that in order to avoid his players losing focus after a big win, he would tell his players to play the final minutes of a blowout game as if you are playing against your next opponent.

Jumbo
01-25-2009, 06:34 PM
I'm so excited for this game, and I think there are a couple of points that are important to recognize right away.

1) This is a rare game where we would learn more from a win than a loss. A lot of fans wait for losses to tell them about weaknesses, etc. and determine that their favorite team isn't that good because they lose, rather than the other way around. This is a game where Duke could play really well and still lose, because Wake is also a really, really good team. If we lose, it doesn't mean we're a bad team, that we're not capable of winning the ACC, that we're not a Final Four contender. It will mean that a really, really good team beat us on its home floor in a league where any road game is tough.

By contrast, if we should be so fortunate as to win, I think that will HAVE to convince any lingering doubters than we can play with, and beat, anyone, anywhere. In that respect. That's really cool, I think.

2) I never go into a game expecting to lose. Ever. I'm extremely competitive. That said, because of what I said above, I'm prepared for the fact that Duke might lose this game. It's hard to imagine that Duke won't lose again this season. So, in a strange way, we're playing with a bit of house money. Lose? Learn, move on, big deal. But beating Wake Forest would just be sweet.

I'm sure I'll have more to say about the X's and O's a little later. But I think the expectations entering this game are interesting to examine.

Jumbo
01-25-2009, 06:55 PM
I agree that the key matchup/strategy will be trying to keep constant pressure on Teague, getting him out of rythm, and wearing him down. I expect our designated stopper, Gerald Henderson, to get that assignment the most. However, to keep wearing on him, expect others to rotate into that assignment.

I worry about Wake's inside strength and (relative) speed. We don't match up great with that. Wake has become a tough place to play too.

But in the end I look Duke to wear down Wake and pull out a close one. Should be a fun game! (I can just hear the folks in Chapel Hell rooting for BOTH teams to lose!) :p

Anybody else worried that we may be gaining some false confidence in the ACC, given the dearth of opponets from the top half of the conference so far -- and a really stacked stretch run schedule (5 of 7 being away at season's end). 'has the potential for a bit of a "collapse." (maybe 'letdown' would be a better word).

This team has me truly excited unlike any other in the last 4 years. Lots of potential (to the point where I'm hearing media members predicting Duke to be the top-1 or 2 preseason next year). But I want it THIS year!!

-BDBD :cool:

Gotta disagre here. G is not our stopper. He is, in fact, the third best perimeter defender among the three perimeter starters. Nolan guards the opposing point guard. All season, Scheyer has guarded the other team's best wing, whether it has been someone long and athletic like Manny Harris, someone thick like A.D. Vassallo, a small shooter like Jimmy Baron, and everything in betwee. One of G's weaker points is his on-ball D, particularly his lateral movement. He's far more effective roaming the weak side, looking to pick off passes and swat shots close to the rim.

Nolan will start on Teague. The real question is who will start on either Johnson or Aminu? Both those guys are NBA-style, inside-out forwards. Singler will take one, obviously. Normally, Scheyer would guard the best opposing wing, but G might be the better option, given the size/strength difference there. So maybe you put Scheyer on Williams to start and ask G to man up on Aminu or Johnson. On the other hand, there's something to be said about asking Scheyer to take on the challenge of guarding a much bigger player and allowing Henderson to cheat off Williams as a help defender.

Of course, given the fact that Duke will switch all screens, the who-guards-who stuff doesn't mean that much. And defense is about teamwork anyway.

DevilCastDownfromDurham
01-25-2009, 07:13 PM
I strongly agree with Jumbo here. There's only one game I expect us to lose this season, but Wednesday's game is, IMO, a complete toss-up. I think we're a marginally better team based on experience, but Wake has a better than 50% chance of winning at their place. Both teams will learn a lot about where they are and what they need to work on.

I'm also a bit puzzled by the idea that G is a great on-ball defender. He has some amazing blocks and is versatile, but isn't by any stretch a lock-down defender. He is a very valuable part of a great defensive team, but if there's one guy I'd love to see save a bit of energy on D so he can perform on the other end it's him. As Jumbo noted, with our switching the notion of Player X Guarding Player Y is less important, but I think how K chooses to attack these matchups will be very interesting. I suspect we will all have a chance to learn something about the teams AND about coaching while watching this game.

dukelifer
01-25-2009, 07:20 PM
I'm so excited for this game, and I think there are a couple of points that are important to recognize right away.

1) This is a rare game where we would learn more from a win than a loss. A lot of fans wait for losses to tell them about weaknesses, etc. and determine that their favorite team isn't that good because they lose, rather than the other way around. This is a game where Duke could play really well and still lose, because Wake is also a really, really good team. If we lose, it doesn't mean we're a bad team, that we're not capable of winning the ACC, that we're not a Final Four contender. It will mean that a really, really good team beat us on its home floor in a league where any road game is tough.

By contrast, if we should be so fortunate as to win, I think that will HAVE to convince any lingering doubters than we can play with, and beat, anyone, anywhere. In that respect. That's really cool, I think.

2) I never go into a game expecting to lose. Ever. I'm extremely competitive. That said, because of what I said above, I'm prepared for the fact that Duke might lose this game. It's hard to imagine that Duke won't lose again this season. So, in a strange way, we're playing with a bit of house money. Lose? Learn, move on, big deal. But beating Wake Forest would just be sweet.

I'm sure I'll have more to say about the X's and O's a little later. But I think the expectations entering this game are interesting to examine.

I could not agree more about playing with house money (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=243081&postcount=1) :D

Duke will learn a lot about themselves in this game. The key is to play with enthusiasm and confidence, and to share the ball like they did against Maryland.

mike88
01-25-2009, 07:25 PM
I will be interested to see if we will use the big line-up of Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Singler-Zoubek against Wake on Wednesday. Based on the plus-minus numbers, it is one of our more effective ones, but I am not sure if that line-up will have enough ballhandling capability. It certainly would help negate some of Wake's size advantage.

kmspeaks
01-25-2009, 07:56 PM
\ They are prone to acting out (McFarland esp.) Fragile.

I'm not saying these guys play dirty or anything and I know that neither should be guarding McFarland but Greg and Kyle strike me as the kind of players who would really get under McFarland's skin and possibly make him blow up a little quicker than normal.

Could we see a little mix up under the boards with Kyle or Greg getting a little chippy (not sure if this is really the word to use here) coming to help off his man and perhaps leading to a quick T on McFarland?

BlueintheFace
01-25-2009, 08:24 PM
Would anybody here be surprised if K pulled a few rabbits out of his defensive hat? 1-3-1... different starters? I have a feeling that K has pushed to the players that this is a no-lose situation so long as they play hard. He might just surprise us with some unusual game-planning since this season is about having fun right?

Jumbo
01-25-2009, 08:31 PM
Would anybody here be surprised if K pulled a few rabbits out of his defensive hat? 1-3-1... different starters? I have a feeling that K has pushed to the players that this is a no-lose situation so long as they play hard. He might just surprise us with some unusual game-planning since this season is about having fun right?

Duke's signature all year has been its awesome man-to-man defense. Why would he suddenly scrap it in favor of some junk D? That makes no sense.

Duke is coming off a 41-point win. Why would he change his starting lineup? Who else should start?

It's not like he's coming off back-to-back losses like in 2005 and wants to shake things up. The team is playing really well. Now they'll get a chance to test what they do well against a really good team in a hostile environment.

(Note: We've done a bit of 1-3-1 trapping for brief stints, so there's no reason we won't see that for two or three possessions against Wake. But I don't think that's what you meant.)

loran16
01-25-2009, 08:39 PM
Duke is coming off a 41-point win. Why would he change his starting lineup? Who else should start?

It's not like he's coming off back-to-back losses like in 2005 and wants to shake things up. The team is playing really well. Now they'll get a chance to test what they do well against a really good team in a hostile environment.

(Note: We've done a bit of 1-3-1 trapping for brief stints, so there's no reason we won't see that for two or three possessions against Wake. But I don't think that's what you meant.)

Well, I wouldn't be surprised if McClure starts or gets major play rather than Zoo. I think that's what he would mean about changing the lineup.

And given that Wake isn't a team that shoots the 3, I wouldn't be surprised if we try playing a 2-3 zone for 1-2 possessions randomly in the game just to throw a different look at them if we need to throw them off balance. We'll be in Man for the majority of the game. But I imagine we'll throw a few different looks (Full court press, Orange Zone) at them randomly througout the game to keep em guessing.

BlueintheFace
01-25-2009, 08:44 PM
Duke's signature all year has been its awesome man-to-man defense. Why would he suddenly scrap it in favor of some junk D? That makes no sense.

Duke is coming off a 41-point win. Why would he change his starting lineup? Who else should start?

It's not like he's coming off back-to-back losses like in 2005 and wants to shake things up. The team is playing really well. Now they'll get a chance to test what they do well against a really good team in a hostile environment.

(Note: We've done a bit of 1-3-1 trapping for brief stints, so there's no reason we won't see that for two or three possessions against Wake. But I don't think that's what you meant.)

I certainly didn't mean to imply that we would be running zone all game. Actually, I didn't imply it all.

I was thinking more along the lines of the occasional 1-3-1. I was thinking back to a certain bench player starting on Chris Paul in a previous matchup. I was thinking about little gimmicks sprinkled in that might throw off Wake and get the team up after the Deacons have had a week to plan for the matchup.

Our identity is our defense and I by no means think that we should change it in any meaningful way. In other words, what Loran said ^

Jumbo
01-25-2009, 09:06 PM
I was thinking back to a certain bench player starting on Chris Paul in a previous matchup.

Right, that's what I thought you were hinting at. But that was a totally different scenario. That Duke team had lost two in a row, and was playing listless basketball. Coach K decided to bench all the starters, but one of the walk-ons (was it Perkins?) told K that J.J. should start over him. iI guess K decided Shelden's effort was up to par, because he got to start, too. So, Duke's starting five that game was Redick, Williams and then Patrick Davidson, Patrick Johnson and Reggie Love.

That was an attempt to fire up a team that was reeling. This team is in a totally different situation, so there is absolutely no need for a gimmick like that.

Otherwise, sure, we could play a couple of possessions of zone here and there, just like we have all year.

CameronCrazy'11
01-25-2009, 09:26 PM
I'm also wondering if we see Duke trying out a few possessions of zone, maybe the 1-3-1, which we've used before.

While this team has great size, talent, and athleticism, they are quite bad at making 3-pointers. Teague can make them, but doesn't shoot them very often, and they have a few other guys who can occasionally be counted on for one. For the most part though, they don't take or make many threes. Good defenses can cheat off that a little bit by guarding the interior, effectively daring them to shoot threes, and I think Duke might do that.

Really I think it will take a very good (relatively speaking) shooting night from Wake to win this game. Unless they're making the kind of shots they don't normally make, I think our defense will be able to adjust and make it very difficult for them to score in the paint.

BlueintheFace
01-25-2009, 09:26 PM
Right, that's what I thought you were hinting at. But that was a totally different scenario. That Duke team had lost two in a row, and was playing listless basketball. Coach K decided to bench all the starters, but one of the walk-ons (was it Perkins?) told K that J.J. should start over him. iI guess K decided Shelden's effort was up to par, because he got to start, too. So, Duke's starting five that game was Redick, Williams and then Patrick Davidson, Patrick Johnson and Reggie Love.

That was an attempt to fire up a team that was reeling. This team is in a totally different situation, so there is absolutely no need for a gimmick like that.

Otherwise, sure, we could play a couple of possessions of zone here and there, just like we have all year.

Every scenario is different ... just ask K, he'll tell you.

I still wouldn't be surprised if we saw an unfamiliar face in the lineup. I'm not saying it's going to happen, just that I wouldn't be surprised for a number of reasons. It's not like I'm asserting that Plumlee (or anybody else) starting is an incontrovertible inevitability Jumbo ... geez

loran16
01-25-2009, 09:30 PM
Right, that's what I thought you were hinting at. But that was a totally different scenario. That Duke team had lost two in a row, and was playing listless basketball. Coach K decided to bench all the starters, but one of the walk-ons (was it Perkins?) told K that J.J. should start over him. iI guess K decided Shelden's effort was up to par, because he got to start, too. So, Duke's starting five that game was Redick, Williams and then Patrick Davidson, Patrick Johnson and Reggie Love.

That was an attempt to fire up a team that was reeling. This team is in a totally different situation, so there is absolutely no need for a gimmick like that.

Otherwise, sure, we could play a couple of possessions of zone here and there, just like we have all year.

It was Ross Perkins, as you remember. A great dude.

CameronCrazy'11
01-25-2009, 09:40 PM
Every scenario is different ... just ask K, he'll tell you.

I still wouldn't be surprised if we saw an unfamiliar face in the lineup. I'm not saying it's going to happen, just that I wouldn't be surprised for a number of reasons. It's not like I'm asserting that Plumlee (or anybody else) starting is an incontrovertible inevitability Jumbo ... geez


But who do you take out of the line-up?

Zoubek is probably the best guy to match up with Chas, and just came off one of his best career games.

Singler and Henderson have been playing lights out recently, and we need them in there to defend Aminu and Johnson.

Smith is our best bet in stopping Teague, which will be absolutely crucial in this game.

Scheyer's been going through a rough streak, but played much better against Maryland. I don't think his rough streak really had anything to do with a lack of heart or desire anyway.

Benching starters is usually something a coach does after a loss where the players put forth sub-par effort. It says "hey if you don't want to play, here's a few people who would be happy to take your spot," and theoretically fires up the starters.

To do it coming out of a 10 game-winning streak when most players have been playing the best basketball of their careers doesn't make much sense. There's no message to be sent, and it would more likely mess up chemistry/ confidence than have any positive effect.

Jumbo
01-25-2009, 09:47 PM
Every scenario is different ... just ask K, he'll tell you.

I still wouldn't be surprised if we saw an unfamiliar face in the lineup. I'm not saying it's going to happen, just that I wouldn't be surprised for a number of reasons. It's not like I'm asserting that Plumlee (or anybody else) starting is an incontrovertible inevitability Jumbo ... geez

What's the "geez" for? You posted something asking for a reaction. You got a reaction. I don't agree with you. What's the issue?

Meanwhile, I still don't understand why we'd see an "unfamiliar face" in the lineup.

BlueintheFace
01-25-2009, 09:51 PM
Benching starters is usually something a coach does after a loss where the players put forth sub-par effort. It says "hey if you don't want to play, here's a few people who would be happy to take your spot," and theoretically fires up the starters.


This is incorrect on two accounts.

1) There are other circumstances in which normal starters do not start the game. Match-ups, A player that doesn't normally start earns his spot thanks to a great week of practicing, element of surprise/ throw off opposing team's game plan and substitution patterns

2) Duke doesn't just have 5 starters. Duke benches starters every game. Don't believe me? Ask Coach K.

DukeDevilDeb
01-25-2009, 09:56 PM
It was Ross Perkins, as you remember. A great dude.

And actually, Ross talked to Coach K and said that it would be better for the team if Shelden (not JJ) started instead of him.

Ross is one of the greatest kids I know. Wish we had one of him on every Duke team!

Wander
01-25-2009, 10:05 PM
Nolan will start on Teague. The real question is who will start on either Johnson or Aminu? Both those guys are NBA-style, inside-out forwards. Singler will take one, obviously. Normally, Scheyer would guard the best opposing wing, but G might be the better option, given the size/strength difference there. So maybe you put Scheyer on Williams to start and ask G to man up on Aminu or Johnson. On the other hand, there's something to be said about asking Scheyer to take on the challenge of guarding a much bigger player and allowing Henderson to cheat off Williams as a help defender.


I think assigning Scheyer to Johnson or Aminu would be a rather poor idea. I'm guessing this is a game that we play a lot of 2 guards and 3 forwards/center (no, not to start, just more than average).

BlueintheFace
01-25-2009, 10:05 PM
What's the "geez" for? You posted something asking for a reaction. You got a reaction. I don't agree with you. What's the issue?

Meanwhile, I still don't understand why we'd see an "unfamiliar face" in the lineup.

The geez was for the condescending tone of your post in response to my obvious speculation. In addition, you still don't seem to understand the thrust of my post. "I wouldn't be surprised" is not = to "We SHOULD see other starters" or "we WILL see other starters."

In our last game against an elite team (or at least they were perceived to be at the time) K started Dave McClure and it wasn't like Georgetown presented a very unique lineup compared to other teams we had played thus far in the season.

Wake has a unique lineup and some players that don't normally start have been playing pretty well recently. ALL I am saying is that I wouldn't really be surprised...

CameronCrazy'11
01-25-2009, 10:07 PM
This is incorrect on two accounts.

1) There are other circumstances in which normal starters do not start the game. Match-ups, A player that doesn't normally start earns his spot thanks to a great week of practicing, element of surprise/ throw off opposing team's game plan and substitution patterns

2) Duke doesn't just have 5 starters. Duke benches starters every game. Don't believe me? Ask Coach K.

Okay, but

1. I explained why I though the normal starters were good matchups for this game. McClure doesn't match up a well as Zoubek against McFarland. Paulus can't defend Teague as well as Smith should. Plumlee's been decent, but I don't see why he would get the nod over Zoubek. Email's also been playing better, but isn't going to be replacing Scheyer or Henderson.

2. I'm not really sure what you mean here. Nolan, Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler have started 18/19 games. Zoubek has started 16/19. If those guys aren't Duke's normal starters, then the term "starter" doesn't mean anything.

I haven't seen you offer any explanation as to why K would/ should start other players over the normal five.

Jumbo
01-25-2009, 10:14 PM
I think assigning Scheyer to Johnson or Aminu would be a rather poor idea. I'm guessing this is a game that we play a lot of 2 guards and 3 forwards/center (no, not to start, just more than average).

I will guess that we'll keep playing our way. No sense sitting Scheyer and Henderson for extended minutes in favor of, say, McClure or Lance Thomas. Again, defense is a team entity. If G or Jon has to guard Johnson or Aminu in the post, that guy will get plenty of help. Ball pressure will be key.

And Wake's going to have a lot of problems guarding our perimeter players at the other end. Good luck to Johnson and Aminu chasing Henderson or Scheyer around all night, right?

Jumbo
01-25-2009, 10:18 PM
The geez was for the condescending tone of your post in response to my obvious speculation. In addition, you still don't seem to understand the thrust of my post. "I wouldn't be surprised" is not = to "We SHOULD see other starters" or "we WILL see other starters."

In our last game against an elite team (or at least they were perceived to be at the time) K started Dave McClure and it wasn't like Georgetown presented a very unique lineup compared to other teams we had played thus far in the season.

Wake has a unique lineup and some players that don't normally start have been playing pretty well recently. ALL I am saying is that I wouldn't really be surprised...

If you're reading condescension into posts, that's your prerogative. But my post was not condescending. I legitimately want to know why you wouldn't be surprised. Against Georgetown, we replaced Zoubek -- who had been playing his worst ball of the year -- with McClure. That moved served two purposes. 1) It was a wakeup call for Zoubs. 2) It allowed Duke to play small at the beginning against Georgetown's Princeton-style offense, and involved replacing the least established member of Duke's starting five.

So, if you're saying you wouldn't be surprised if someone else started, which guys wouldn't surprise you? And which guys would Duke bench to match up against Wake? And why?

77devil
01-25-2009, 10:19 PM
By contrast, if we should be so fortunate as to win, I think that will HAVE to convince any lingering doubters than we can play with, and beat, anyone, anywhere. In that respect. That's really cool, I think.

I am afraid some lingering doubters will remain until Duke makes a deep run in the NCAA tournament. That's the standard Duke is measured by some like it or not. This should be the year.

BlueintheFace
01-25-2009, 10:24 PM
Okay, but

1. I explained why I though the normal starters were good matchups for this game. McClure doesn't match up a well as Zoubek against McFarland. Paulus can't defend Teague as well as Smith should. Plumlee's been decent, but I don't see why he would get the nod over Zoubek. Email's also been playing better, but isn't going to be replacing Scheyer or Henderson.

2. I'm not really sure what you mean here. Nolan, Scheyer, Henderson, and Singler have started 18/19 games. Zoubek has started 16/19. If those guys aren't Duke's normal starters, then the term "starter" doesn't mean anything.

I haven't seen you offer any explanation as to why K would/ should start other players over the normal five.

1) I agree with a lot of what people have said about matchups. I personally believe that G will be on Aminu. I think though, that you might be forgetting Lance Thomas. I don't think he will start, but I would not be surprised if K put him in the starting lineup over Scheyer. Am i saying that he is a better player? NO. Am I saying that he will play Jon's minutes? NO. Am I even saying that Jon deserves to be relegated? NO. However, if K were to be concerned about matchups and would like G/ Scheyer to push out on a guard and put a bigger body in the game early on to set a defensive tone, then starting Lance might not be that crazy.

McFarland- Zoubek
Johnson- Singler
Aminu- G/ Lance
Williams- Scheyer/ Henderson
Teague- Nolan


2) I was just being flip. K has said a number of times that Duke has more than 5 starters and that starting the game "doesn't mean anything" for this team.

Finally, I would like to officially take it all back. I would be SHOCKED!!!! to see K start somebody other than the "normal starters." I believe this is the desired response and this argument has become tiresome.

Newton_14
01-25-2009, 10:33 PM
I think that Jon can guard Aminu, and can do a good job on him. Aminu is a great talent no doubt, but he is still a freshman prone to freshman mistakes. Jon is a seasoned vet who has been called on numerous times in his career to guard guys bigger and quicker than he, and has had alot of success. I actually like the matchup and see it in our favor.

I just hope that Duke comes out of the gate with the same intensity we saw in the Purdue game, and that the shots are falling. In both the State and Maryland games, the defense threw the knockout punch right out of the gate, but the miscues and missed shots on offense prevented what should have been 14 to 18 point leads before the first tv timeout. In the scrimmage against the twerps it did not matter, but it hurt in the State game and allowed them to turn what should have been an early rout into a tough game.

But back to the Wake game. I believe our defense will keep us in it. We have to rebound well, limit 2nd chance points, limit Teague, and make shots. The first three are not easy tasks for sure, but doable. We also need solid play on both ends in the post.

It should be a really great game with great atmosphere and I have to believe our guys will be up to the task. Winning this game will send a loud message to all that this Duke team is not last years version which all of the talking heads sans The General seem to believe..

Wander
01-25-2009, 10:52 PM
I will guess that we'll keep playing our way.

Who's talking about not playing our way? There have been games when we've played a lineup with 3 forwards for meaningful minutes and there have been games when we haven't. They're both "our way." I'm just guessing this will be the former.

BTW, I also don't want Scheyer guarding Aminu or Johnson because I want him available to guard Ish and Teague with Nolan.



And Wake's going to have a lot of problems guarding our perimeter players at the other end. Good luck to Johnson and Aminu chasing Henderson or Scheyer around all night, right?

They'll have problems guarding our perimeter players for the same reason everyone has trouble guarding our perimeter players - they're damn good. But Wake's big dudes aren't the fat lumbering oafs of Wisconsin last year. And, no, I do not wish them good luck. :)

Devil07
01-26-2009, 01:29 AM
And actually, Ross talked to Coach K and said that it would be better for the team if Shelden (not JJ) started instead of him.

Ross is one of the greatest kids I know. Wish we had one of him on every Duke team!

I thought this deserved to be repeated because I couldn't agree more. As the story from the Wake game showed, Ross is a truly humble person. That start was supposed to be his reward for his hard work in practice but for the team he let it go. I also remember back in 2005 before the UNC game Coach K was speaking to the students and was doing a Q&A. Someone asked who was going to guard McCants and so Coach asked the crowd who they thought should guard him. Someone shouted out Ross's name and Coach K laughed, but then said something to the effect of, I wish all of our players had the heart of Ross Perkins. I can't think of a much higher compliment and it certainly was well deserved.

As for Wake, my main concern is that because of their size and ability to alter shots we are going to fall into the 3pt shooting trap. While this team has done a good job of not forcing 3's (other than the second Michigan game), I do worry that if we are having a hard time penetrating that we'll revert a bit. If the shots aren't falling that could lead to a long night since I don't foresee us getting a lot of offensive rebounds. Along those lines, my other chief concern is limiting Wake's second chance points. If we can limit them to one shot per trip then I really like our chances.

Uncle Drew
01-26-2009, 02:10 AM
While I was very, very, very happy the way Duke slaughtered MD, the game Wednesday will be against a very, very, very different team. Wake has size, it's what bothered UNC and Wake is physical something past Duke teams haven't always handled well. I can guarantee two things, the crowd at the game will be pumped, they get up for Duke like no other school. And the Wake players will be looking to show the nation they are the team that beat UNC not the one that lost to VT.

That being said Duke while certainly not senior citizens is older and wiser than Wake. I've seen young teams get too "pumped" for a big game and play poorly, at least at the start. Duke does not need a cold start and if they can get an early double digit lead they need to really put the foot on the gas. Taking the Wake crowd out of this game would be HUGE, and maybe allow us not to have to see quite as many of those obnoxious tiedyes. I can see Duke using a quick line up to bother Wake like they did against Georgetown. But if Zoubek can have a showing like he did against MD and at least maintain his mobility even better. (Look for Thomas and McClure to do a lot of the dirty work, but play key roles.) At guard Wake has quickness so logic says start Smith and hope Duke communicates well. But Greg has been playing big as well I look for him to contribute in his last game at LJVM. Henderson and Singler will get theirs and be the players they have been so far this season. If Scheyer takes a couple threes and misses he needs to take it to the rim and get some points from the free throw line.

I know Duke has been holding teams way under their scoring average, but Wake is not MD or NCSU. That being said I do think Duke is the best defensive team Wake will see all year. It will be interesting to see the outcome of this game and we will get a good sense of whether defense really does / can win championships. Prediction Duke 78 Wake Forrest 67

davekay1971
01-26-2009, 09:12 AM
Win or lose, I'm really looking forward to this game. It will be our best test of the season to date, and our team will come out of this game better than we go into it. In particular, I'm looking to see if:

1) We can hold our own on the boards against a big team
2) We can run a reasonably efficient offense against a good defensive team on their home court
3) Our defense can shut down a really talented offensive team
4) If we can keep a very good driving guard out of the lane (Teague in this game, pointing toward Lawson later on).
5) How we respond to having the target squarely on our backs for the first time this season.

Even as a top 5 team, we've been flying under the radar this season, getting the third most pub of the big four teams. Now we're number 1, and we start off our stint at the top spot visiting a top 5 team. If we can go in there with high intensity and emotion, play lockdown defense and run an efficient offense, we'll win, and we'd have to be considered a favorite for a 1 seed and a final four run going forward.

davekay1971
01-26-2009, 09:23 AM
One interesting thing to look out for: Both Zoubs and McFarland are known to be foul prone (by which I mean the refs tend to give neither of them any benefit of the doubt, and routinely screw them). So with the two of them matched up on each other...some possible prop bets:

1) Who gets the first foul: Z or McF?
2) Game time to first foul called on either of them: 90 seconds - over or under?
3) When they fight for a rebound, who gets called...or do the refs hit them with the double-foul?
4) McFarland drives and contact is made with Zoubs...charge or block?
5) Who fouls out first?
6) Total time on the court (given that both will spend extended time on the bench loaded with cheap fouls): 25 minutes - over or under?

If only Lenny Wertz and Dick Paparo were still reffing - they could call the game together and race to see who could foul the big men out first (emphatically, of course).

Rudy
01-26-2009, 09:33 AM
My look at match ups and advantages on each:

Teague/Smith--Wake +2
Williams/Scheyer -- Duke +1
Johnson/Henderson -- Duke +1 (but only if Henderson continues his excellent play)
Aminu/Singler -- Duke +1
McFarland/Zoubek -- Wake +2

6th man--Smith/Paulus --even (different talents but overall even)

Rest of bench -- Duke +1

Overall team cohesiveness and poise -- Duke +2

Looking forward to a great game. Duke's team defense and poise should be the difference.

jv001
01-26-2009, 09:52 AM
Our main concerns: keep Wake from getting 2nd shots, don't let Teague drive and dish for easy shots and don't let Teague go off on us from 3 point territory. Duke 74 Wake 70. Go Duke!

Skitzle
01-26-2009, 11:52 AM
I'm curious to see how our defense will respond to a top offense.

We haven't seen that match up just yet.

Should be a fun game.

How often is the #1 team in the nation the underdog going into a game? The good part, Duke gets to play like it has nothing to lose.

Kedsy
01-26-2009, 12:37 PM
Duke will and should be the underdog in this game. IMO, Wake is a much tougher matchup for us than UNC or anybody else in the league.

I think Nolan can slow Teague down and Z can hold his own against McFarland. My worry is we can't switch on defense as freely as we like to do. The key for Wake is going to be the play of Johnson and Aminu. Johnson absolutely killed us last year and is a really tough matchup for Kyle. I don't think we'll want to see Jon or Nolan or Greg guarding him or Aminu. I'm even nervous about Lance guarding them -- Johnson is too strong for him and Aminu might be too quick. Dave can probably guard any of Wake's players, but I think he's going to have to be primarily used on Teague to keep Nolan fresh or if Nolan picks up a couple early fouls as he sometimes does (although I suppose when Nolan goes out G can guard Teague and Dave can guard Aminu or Johnson). Because their subs are so big, we may not get much of a defensive breather when their frontcourt starters go to the bench.

On offense, I think the matchup in our favor is going to be Williams or Smith guarding Jon. Plus, even as long and athletic as he is, Aminu may have a tough time keeping up with G -- assuming the active G we've seen for the past several games shows up (although it's also going to be hard for G to be so active since I expect he'll expend a great deal of energy on defense; Kyle is going to have the same issue). If we convert turnovers into points and shoot well, we should be able to score on them, but if we don't, look out. It's going to be a tiring game for both sides, so free throw shooting may be the x-factor.

It should be a close game, but I think it will be high scoring, which tilts more in Wake's favor than ours. I agree with Jumbo, though, that we're sort of playing with house money. Go Duke.

SMO
01-26-2009, 12:59 PM
Duke will and should be the underdog in this game.

Anyone know how Vegas has the game right now?

Johnboy
01-26-2009, 01:17 PM
The storming of the court vs the Holes I felt was clueless. Your both top 5 teams, and you beat them on your home floor. You are supposed to do that. I just didn't understand that.

I was a UNC law student in 1989 (hey - it was cheap and I was on my own). Carolina came in to Cameron on January 18 and beat top-ranked and undefeated Duke 91 to 71. Both teams were ranked in the top 5. Nevertheless, I knew for sure that the rivalry was as white-hot as it could get when I returned from Cameron to Chappaheeya to find that they were celebrating like they'd won the NCAA title. I understood the happiness (after all, they'd just beaten Duke for the first time in at least four tries - we swept them in for the "Triple Crown" in 1988) but I didn't understand the near-rioting and the complete toilet-papering of downtown CH - it was a regular season game, and we would play again - maybe twice. Had the game been in CH, I have no doubt they would have stormed the court.

I took it as a huge compliment to Duke that they'd get so much joy out of beating us in a regular season game.

As an aside, we beat them in Chapel Hill that year, 88 to 86 (spoiling their Senior night), they beat us a week later (77 to 74) for the ACC title in an absolute war, but in the NCAA's, we went to the Final Four, losing to Seton Hall/Andrew Gaze/cheap game-ending hack on Robert Brickey (yes, I'm still bitter), while UNC had lost to eventual champion Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen. Kind of a weird season (http://www.sportsstats.com/bball/standings/1989).

riksmits
01-26-2009, 02:12 PM
Do the WF faithful have a main message board? Would be curious to see their thoughts on the game...

Indoor66
01-26-2009, 02:28 PM
Do the WF faithful have a main message board? Would be curious to see their thoughts on the game...

From DBR Links: http://wakeforest.scout.com/index.html

SilkyJ
01-26-2009, 02:43 PM
My #1 worry is that we come in confident about our abilities, or at least confident that we can play against wake the same way we have played against our other conference opponents. Not b/c we're about to be ranked #1 or b/c we mauled MD, but our last few opponents, georgetown aside, are really not that great. Other than VA Tech, none of them are going to the NCAAs and I don't want our guys thinking this game is going to go just like the last few have; its going to be much, much harder to get good looks in this game and Wake is going to score.

I was reminded of this by the DBR post on the main page regarding our impressive defensive stats in conference play so far. While they are impressive, they are against very average competition, and the other team turned the ball over a lot (in our 5 conference games so far, our opponents are averaging 17.2 TO/game), which should happen less with Teague handling the ball.

Yes, some of that is our defense, but some of that is that those teams didn't have good ball handlers and some of it was also playing at home. This is on the road and we're playing against good guards. This is going to be a battle and its going to be close.


I think that Jon can guard Aminu, and can do a good job on him. Aminu is a great talent no doubt, but he is still a freshman prone to freshman mistakes. Jon is a seasoned vet who has been called on numerous times in his career to guard guys bigger and quicker than he, and has had alot of success. I actually like the matchup and see it in our favor.


He should eat jon alive in the post and on the boards. Jon may be able to draw a few fouls on him with some good pump fakes, but I don't like that matchup at all.

jv001
01-26-2009, 02:48 PM
My #1 worry is that we come in confident about our abilities, or at least confident that we can play against wake the same way we have played against our other conference opponents. Not b/c we're about to be ranked #1 or b/c we mauled MD, but our last few opponents, georgetown aside, are really not that great. Other than VA Tech, none of them are going to the NCAAs and I don't want our guys thinking this game is going to go just like the last few have; its going to be much, much harder to get good looks in this game and Wake is going to score.

I was reminded of this by the DBR post on the main page regarding our impressive defensive stats in conference play so far. While they are impressive, they are against very average competition, and the other team turned the ball over a lot (in our 5 conference games so far, our opponents are averaging 17.2 TO/game), which should happen less with Teague handling the ball.

Yes, some of that is our defense, but some of that is that those teams didn't have good ball handlers and some of it was also playing at home. This is on the road and we're playing against good guards. This is going to be a battle and its going to be close.



I think you're crazy if you actually believe that. He should eat jon alive in the post and on the boards. Jon may be able to draw a few fouls on him with some good pump fakes, but I don't like that matchup at all.

I will be surprised if Gerald doesn't guard Aminu most of the time. He is too strong on the inside for Jon even though he does like to roam around outside at times. I just like Gerald on him. Go Duke!

JDev
01-26-2009, 02:59 PM
From DBR Links: http://wakeforest.scout.com/index.html

I took a glance, and it was dominated by the normal, ignorant drivel. Very Maryland-esque stuff. I do not know why I was surprised to see quite of as much of it as there was (ex. - long thread entitled "Why I hate Duke"). They are making excuses, but I could save them time on the aforementioned thread: Duke in the last 25 years = 10 Final Fours and 3 National Championships; Wake = not so much.

Should be a great game however. Teague will be guarded better than he has in any game thus far. Duke will need to hit the boards as hard as they did against Maryland.

JDev
01-26-2009, 03:06 PM
I will be surprised if Gerald doesn't guard Aminu most of the time. He is too strong on the inside for Jon even though he does like to roam around outside at times. I just like Gerald on him. Go Duke!

I would think that would be the likely match-up. It will be the same matchup on the other end, with Aminu guarding G when Wake is in man-to-man. Aminu will have an obvious advantage in height and length when guarding, which could give G trouble. G could take him off the dribble however. I expect to see some good spacing and G given the opportunity to iso and take Aminu off the dribble early. That could do a number of things, like get Aminu some early fouls which will hurt Wake's rebounding, or make Aminu sag off and hopefully G continues his red-hot shooting.

Kedsy
01-26-2009, 03:08 PM
It should be a close game, but I think it will be high scoring, which tilts more in Wake's favor than ours.

Considering that according to KenPom we're #2 in defensive efficiency and Wake is #5, I realize it doesn't make sense to think the game will be fast paced and high scoring, but for some reason I really think that's what's going to happen.

dukebsbll14
01-26-2009, 05:00 PM
Apparently Wake's motivational pregame thread lists reasons for hating Duke.

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=192&f=1118&t=3833629

"6) The school being a pretentious Ivy League/Stanford wannabe."

Time to pull out "safety school" chant again?

Dukerati
01-26-2009, 05:19 PM
I think the key to close games is always -- press the advantages where you have them, minimize the deficiencies. This may seem obvious and simplistic but it really applies to Scheyer for the Wake game. He should have an offensive advantage on whoever is guarding him but if he is not shooting or finishing well, that is a precious edge that we will lose and may not recover from.

bird
01-26-2009, 06:01 PM
Things I am looking for:

1. Whether, as I expect, the matchups favor Wake overall, particularly on the front line. If our usual ball pressure / overplaying passing lanes fails to keep the ball out of the paint, then we may struggle. But see No. 3 below.

2. Whether K goes small/quick rather than large, as he has done in the past when he has had to make a choice (Zoubek versus McClure), relying more on ball denial and turnovers than pounding the boards. I'm thinking Georgetown this year, and 2001 after the Boozer injury and classic cases such as our defense of "Big Dog" and John Smith's role in the 1986-87 team.

3. The quality of Wake's decision making if we are fortunate enought to be able to put Wake under significant game pressure. I was very unimpressed with Wake's decision making at the end of the the Va. Tech game. Smith is questionable as a general matter, Teague was way too deferential, and the rest of the team was clueless what to do with a hot hand.

Newton_14
01-26-2009, 08:21 PM
My #1 worry is that we come in confident about our abilities, or at least confident that we can play against wake the same way we have played against our other conference opponents. Not b/c we're about to be ranked #1 or b/c we mauled MD, but our last few opponents, georgetown aside, are really not that great. Other than VA Tech, none of them are going to the NCAAs and I don't want our guys thinking this game is going to go just like the last few have; its going to be much, much harder to get good looks in this game and Wake is going to score.

I was reminded of this by the DBR post on the main page regarding our impressive defensive stats in conference play so far. While they are impressive, they are against very average competition, and the other team turned the ball over a lot (in our 5 conference games so far, our opponents are averaging 17.2 TO/game), which should happen less with Teague handling the ball.

Yes, some of that is our defense, but some of that is that those teams didn't have good ball handlers and some of it was also playing at home. This is on the road and we're playing against good guards. This is going to be a battle and its going to be close.



He should eat jon alive in the post and on the boards. Jon may be able to draw a few fouls on him with some good pump fakes, but I don't like that matchup at all.


So you think I am crazy. Fine. Having seen Wake play several times this year, sometimes Aminu looks dominant. Other times not so much. Jon is one of the very best at ball denial and Aminu tends to stay out on the perimeter alot. I agree Jon would have a tough time keeping him off the glass, but I do not think Aminu would blow up and kill us with Jon on him. It may be a moot point anyway as it is likely Henderson, Dave, and Singler each get time on him and Jon does not. We will find out soon enough.

Kedsy
01-26-2009, 08:35 PM
So you think I am crazy. Fine. Having seen Wake play several times this year, sometimes Aminu looks dominant. Other times not so much. Jon is one of the very best at ball denial and Aminu tends to stay out on the perimeter alot. I agree Jon would have a tough time keeping him off the glass, but I do not think Aminu would blow up and kill us with Jon on him. It may be a moot point anyway as it is likely Henderson, Dave, and Singler each get time on him and Jon does not. We will find out soon enough.

If Singler's guarding Aminu, who's guarding Johnson? It will be Henderson or McClure guarding Aminu.

JDev
01-26-2009, 08:52 PM
I was reminded of this by the DBR post on the main page regarding our impressive defensive stats in conference play so far. While they are impressive, they are against very average competition, and the other team turned the ball over a lot (in our 5 conference games so far, our opponents are averaging 17.2 TO/game), which should happen less with Teague handling the ball.

Yes, some of that is our defense, but some of that is that those teams didn't have good ball handlers and some of it was also playing at home. This is on the road and we're playing against good guards. This is going to be a battle and its going to be close.

This is true for the most part. What might be good news for Duke is that Wake is not elite at taking care of the ball. Wake has averaged 16 turnovers a game on the year, and they have more turnovers than assists. Teague himself leads the team with 3.8 turnovers a game. He had 5 turnovers in the loss to VT. On top of that, Duke is without question the best defense they will have faced, so maybe Duke can turn them over and turn that into buckets.

Kishiznit
01-26-2009, 08:58 PM
I would like to see Coach go to the bench early and often to challenge Gaudio and keep him thinking about getting out-coached. I would not do this for an offensive advantage (as Fake Worest will most like stay in a match up zone) but for a defensive one. He went large against MD and small against a larger G'town; I would expect McClure and Singler in the middle a lot. Remeber when Doherty's led Tarholes would be somewhat in the game a few years ago and Coach would surprise him with an aggressive zone defense and steal about 3 possesions before Doherty could adjust? Would be nice to see a little zone Wednesday but we MUST make Teague work away from the basket running the offense because (unfortunately ) the GREAT Harvey Hale won't get many minutes. Nolan should be able to make Teague work on defense, as well.....GO DUKE!

jipops
01-26-2009, 11:01 PM
Deny the post, deny the post and keep the ball out of Teague's hands. We did an excellent job of denying vs. GTech. However, GTech didn't have Teague. Wake's offense seems to flow from his drives. If Wake has little trouble getting it inside, this one is all over quickly. This also may be the biggest test for Nolan thus far in his career. He did have one of his best games against Wake last year going 8-12 with 21 pts. Hopefully there is something about this matchup that is still favorable for him. Besides their enormous frontcourt Wake also features a couple big wing guards in LD Williams and Harvey Hale, each capable of nailing down the 3. But I'd much rather the ball be out of Teague's hands.

So far we've been able to win with one of our big 3 guys having off games. That simply cannot be the case on Wednesday night. Might also help if we can stay out of major foul trouble though this is probably inevitable.

roywhite
01-26-2009, 11:20 PM
Deny the post, deny the post and keep the ball out of Teague's hands. We did an excellent job of denying vs. GTech. However, GTech didn't have Teague. Wake's offense seems to flow from his drives. If Wake has little trouble getting it inside, this one is all over quickly. This also may be the biggest test for Nolan thus far in his career. He did have one of his best games against Wake last year going 8-12 with 21 pts. Hopefully there is something about this matchup that is still favorable for him. Besides their enormous frontcourt Wake also features a couple big wing guards in LD Williams and Harvey Hale, each capable of nailing down the 3. But I'd much rather the ball be out of Teague's hands.

So far we've been able to win with one of our big 3 guys having off games. That simply cannot be the case on Wednesday night. Might also help if we can stay out of major foul trouble though this is probably inevitable.

Seems to me you've about nailed it. If we can play good defense against Teague, Hale and LD Williams are not good ballhandlers. They can bring in Ish Smith but he's erratic. Nolan Smith can probably defend Teague about as well as anyone in the league; Scheyer and Henderson will get a turn at it occasionally, too.

Foul trouble with Singler is a particular problem.

Wake is beatable; they're talented but tend to make mistakes, throw the ball away, and are inexperienced in tight games against good teams.

Duke 78 Wake 69

CameronCrazy'11
01-27-2009, 01:20 AM
The biggest key to this game might be keeping Singler out of foul trouble.

MChambers
01-27-2009, 09:12 AM
Wake's defense is quite effective, but very different from Duke's. In particular, Wake gives up a lot of three pointers (they ranked 269 overall, meaning that they allow more three point attempts than 268 Div. 1 teams), but their opponents don't make those attempts (opponents make only 28.4%, which makes Wake the 5th best team in this category.

Wake also doesn't do much about getting in passing lanes, ranking 117th in causing turnovers.

roywhite
01-27-2009, 09:33 AM
The biggest key to this game might be keeping Singler out of foul trouble.

If he gets 2 fouls early, I think Coach K will pull him for the remainder of the first half; no way he goes into half-time with 3 fouls.

In another note, heard Mike Gminski make an interesting point yesterday; Duke's offense often works better in the 2nd half because they are playing in front of the Duke bench and Coach K is able to give instructions on the spot. To be honest, I don't know if that arrangement is the same on the road?

Jumbo
01-27-2009, 09:37 AM
If he gets 2 fouls early, I think Coach K will pull him for the remainder of the first half; no way he goes into half-time with 3 fouls.

In another note, heard Mike Gminski make an interesting point yesterday; Duke's offense often works better in the 2nd half because they are playing in front of the Duke bench and Coach K is able to give instructions on the spot. To be honest, I don't know if that arrangement is the same on the road?

Generally teams shoot opposite their own bench in the first half and in front of their home bench in the second half in all locations.

pfrduke
01-27-2009, 11:19 AM
If he gets 2 fouls early, I think Coach K will pull him for the remainder of the first half; no way he goes into half-time with 3 fouls.

In another note, heard Mike Gminski make an interesting point yesterday; Duke's offense often works better in the 2nd half because they are playing in front of the Duke bench and Coach K is able to give instructions on the spot. To be honest, I don't know if that arrangement is the same on the road?

I'm making an immediate mental note to look into whether his assessment of our offense is statistically accurate or whether this is just broadcaster-speak. We've had some significant offensive issues in the second half of some games (FSU - although it was still better than the first half - Davidson, Xavier). I'll check back in tonight when I can get home and take a look at my info to see if we do, in fact, perform better on offense in the second half.

Reddevil
01-27-2009, 11:23 AM
Duke has been a much, much better rebounding team this year. I'm thinking that K took some principles learned from his Olympic experience and applied them to this year's edition. A past weakness as a result of overplaying the passing lanes against teams with a more traditional ball-man-you approach was getting outrebounded. The philosophy seemed to be that the turnovers created would more than make up for the rebounding deficit. Now, the team is just as tenacious in the lanes, but also rebounds quite well. It has to be more than just a point of emphasis. A clear coaching point in finding a man once the ball goes up, or treating the area around the basket as a passing lane, or something from zone, NBA, or international priciples must have been applied. The results are too striking to be chalked up to just simply making it a priority. My point is that this bodes awfully well against teams like Wake and the holes because it allows for a greater margin of error, and stealing victory out of the jaws of defeat on a poor shooting nights. The meat of the season is yet to be played, but I really think this team is better equipped to be succesful than recently equally talented teams. The carolina and Wake games are going to be epic - no doubt, but not quite as daunting as they may have seemed two months ago. Ahh, but that's why they play the games. Enjoy!

Chitowndevil
01-27-2009, 11:38 AM
Here's an interesting comparison. Numbers from kenpom.com. Bracketed figures are national ranks.

Team X

Category Offense Defense D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency: 101.8 [143] 88.1 [18] 100.5
Adj. Tempo: 68.3 [124] 67.1

Four Factors
Effective FG%: 48.6 [181] 43.8 [25] 48.8
Turnover %: 23.8 [305] 23.3 [42] 20.9
Off. Reb. %: 37.4 [44] 34.7 [235] 33.2
FTA/FGA: 42.4 [47] 36.1 [166] 36.3

Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 33.4 [188] 32.3 [91] 34.0
2P%: 47.8 [173] 41.1 [16] 47.7
FT%: 70.7 [101] 65.5 [55] 68.6
Block%: 7.1 [66] 17.0 [6] 8.9
Steal%: 10.4 [220] 12.9 [20] 1 0.0


Wake

Adj. Efficiency: 110.4 [47] 84.2 [5] 100.5
Adj. Tempo: 74.8 [7] 67.1

Four Factors
Effective FG%: 53.9 [25] 41.9 [5] 48.8
Turnover %: 21.0 [194] 21.8 [117] 20.9
Off. Reb. %: 35.6 [88] 29.7 [57] 33.2
FTA/FGA: 4 6.7 [14] 32.0 [92] 36.3

Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 33.3 [190] 28.4 [5] 34.0
2P%: 54.9 [17] 41.5 [18] 47.7
FT%: 70.7 [100] 65.6 [59] 68.6
Block%: 6.3 [28] 15.0 [14] 8.9
Steal%: 9.6 [140] 11.7 [53] 10.0


Duke has also played team X this year...

pfrduke
01-27-2009, 11:49 AM
Here's an interesting comparison. Numbers from kenpom.com. Bracketed figures are national ranks.

Team X

Category Offense Defense D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency: 101.8 [143] 88.1 [18] 100.5
Adj. Tempo: 68.3 [124] 67.1

Four Factors
Effective FG%: 48.6 [181] 43.8 [25] 48.8
Turnover %: 23.8 [305] 23.3 [42] 20.9
Off. Reb. %: 37.4 [44] 34.7 [235] 33.2
FTA/FGA: 42.4 [47] 36.1 [166] 36.3

Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 33.4 [188] 32.3 [91] 34.0
2P%: 47.8 [173] 41.1 [16] 47.7
FT%: 70.7 [101] 65.5 [55] 68.6
Block%: 7.1 [66] 17.0 [6] 8.9
Steal%: 10.4 [220] 12.9 [20] 1 0.0


Wake

Adj. Efficiency: 110.4 [47] 84.2 [5] 100.5
Adj. Tempo: 74.8 [7] 67.1

Four Factors
Effective FG%: 53.9 [25] 41.9 [5] 48.8
Turnover %: 21.0 [194] 21.8 [117] 20.9
Off. Reb. %: 35.6 [88] 29.7 [57] 33.2
FTA/FGA: 4 6.7 [14] 32.0 [92] 36.3

Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 33.3 [190] 28.4 [5] 34.0
2P%: 54.9 [17] 41.5 [18] 47.7
FT%: 70.7 [100] 65.6 [59] 68.6
Block%: 6.3 [28] 15.0 [14] 8.9
Steal%: 9.6 [140] 11.7 [53] 10.0


Duke has also played team X this year...

Shows you how good FSU could be if they just put the ball in the basket. (I did look up to confirm that it was FSU, but guessed correctly before confirming).

It's a good comparison though - the size of both teams is similar, the domination of the ball by the lead guard for both teams is similar, the style of play is similar (although FSU takes a lot more 3s). The difference is that guys like Alabi, Reid, and Singleton are defense-no (or limited)-offense players while McFarland, Johnson, and Aminu have more complete games. With that front line, Wake is just really, really good at putting the ball in the basket from inside.

duketaylor
01-27-2009, 12:12 PM
Join us at Chiocca's this afternoon to talk hoops, about 4:30, corner of Belmont and Kensington.

Jumbo
01-27-2009, 12:23 PM
Duke has been a much, much better rebounding team this year. I'm thinking that K took some principles learned from his Olympic experience and applied them to this year's edition. A past weakness as a result of overplaying the passing lanes against teams with a more traditional ball-man-you approach was getting outrebounded. The philosophy seemed to be that the turnovers created would more than make up for the rebounding deficit. Now, the team is just as tenacious in the lanes, but also rebounds quite well. It has to be more than just a point of emphasis. A clear coaching point in finding a man once the ball goes up, or treating the area around the basket as a passing lane, or something from zone, NBA, or international priciples must have been applied. The results are too striking to be chalked up to just simply making it a priority. My point is that this bodes awfully well against teams like Wake and the holes because it allows for a greater margin of error, and stealing victory out of the jaws of defeat on a poor shooting nights. The meat of the season is yet to be played, but I really think this team is better equipped to be succesful than recently equally talented teams. The carolina and Wake games are going to be epic - no doubt, but not quite as daunting as they may have seemed two months ago. Ahh, but that's why they play the games. Enjoy!

I'm not sure if there's that much to that, or if we're just bigger. Heck, Team USA took even MORE risks in playing the passing lanes than a typical Duke team, constantly trying to force turnovers. And those guys played small most of the time.

More than holding our own on the defensive boards, we've REALLY picked it up as an offensive rebounding team. That's like our secret weapon. According to Pomeroy, we're 14th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage (40.8%). That's REALLY impressive.

Jumbo
01-27-2009, 12:32 PM
Given all this "who guards whom" stuff, I think it's appropriate to quote Bob Knight from his breakdown of Duke's defense:
"Defense, regardless of what you're playing -- zone or man-to-man -- is a five-man proposition. It's five players in coordination with the location of the basketball."

roywhite
01-27-2009, 12:46 PM
Given all this "who guards whom" stuff, I think it's appropriate to quote Bob Knight from his breakdown of Duke's defense:
"Defense, regardless of what you're playing -- zone or man-to-man -- is a five-man proposition. It's five players in coordination with the location of the basketball."

..."and Duke plays basketball at both ends of the floor better than any team plays basketball".

Wander
01-27-2009, 01:06 PM
Given all this "who guards whom" stuff, I think it's appropriate to quote Bob Knight from his breakdown of Duke's defense:
"Defense, regardless of what you're playing -- zone or man-to-man -- is a five-man proposition. It's five players in coordination with the location of the basketball."

Of course, it's a complete coincidence that you're focusing on this point when discussing a game that most of us think Scheyer won't be guarding the opponent's best wing player.

Wander
01-27-2009, 01:09 PM
Wake's defense is quite effective, but very different from Duke's. In particular, Wake gives up a lot of three pointers (they ranked 269 overall, meaning that they allow more three point attempts than 268 Div. 1 teams), but their opponents don't make those attempts (opponents make only 28.4%, which makes Wake the 5th best team in this category.


I don't know if I'd say Wake "gives up" a lot of three pointers. You were kind of getting to this in your next sentence, but their opponents shoot a lot of threes because Wake forces them to shoot long shots.

Jumbo
01-27-2009, 01:11 PM
Of course, it's a complete coincidence that you're focusing on this point when discussing a game that most of us think Scheyer won't be guarding the opponent's best wing player.

What on earth are you talking about?

Jumbo
01-27-2009, 01:13 PM
I don't know if I'd say Wake "gives up" a lot of three pointers. You were kind of getting to this in your next sentence, but their opponents shoot a lot of threes because Wake forces them to shoot long shots.

And given that the percentage is so low, you'd have to assume Wake does a good job of contesting all those threes, too.

watzone
01-27-2009, 01:16 PM
Duke players were available to the media yesterday. Jon and Gerald discuss Wake and being ranked number one - I posted the Q's the TV cameras didn't pick up on.

http://bluedevilnation.net/

SilkyJ
01-27-2009, 01:17 PM
So you think I am crazy. Fine. Having seen Wake play several times this year, sometimes Aminu looks dominant. Other times not so much. Jon is one of the very best at ball denial and Aminu tends to stay out on the perimeter alot. I agree Jon would have a tough time keeping him off the glass, but I do not think Aminu would blow up and kill us with Jon on him. It may be a moot point anyway as it is likely Henderson, Dave, and Singler each get time on him and Jon does not. We will find out soon enough.

Yea my bad. You're not crazy, but its hard to deny the ball if it can just be thrown over your outstretched arms to someone who is 4 inches taller, aided by longer arms, and can jump much higher.

Henderson and Dave will have the bulk of the workload there, I agree.



More than holding our own on the defensive boards, we've REALLY picked it up as an offensive rebounding team. That's like our secret weapon. According to Pomeroy, we're 14th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage (40.8%). That's REALLY impressive.

Indeed that is impressive. I think thats all Kyle and Zoubs. Kyle got bigger and realized he can impose his will down low (and elsewhere), and Zoubs is finally becoming a basketball player and not just a tall guy. His positioning has also improved (but wait, I thought Wojo can't coach big men?!?)

BlueintheFace
01-27-2009, 01:40 PM
If we are getting killed on the boards for whatever reason, perhaps we might see E-will for a few possessions. The kid is very clearly a raw freshman in most areas, but rebounding DOES NOT seem to be one of them.

MChambers
01-27-2009, 01:46 PM
And given that the percentage is so low, you'd have to assume Wake does a good job of contesting all those threes, too.
Yeah, you'd assume that it's hard to score inside against all those big players for Wake, so teams take poor outside shots.

I haven't seen enough of Wake to know whether that's the case. Wake overall has not played a very tough schedule, so I suppose it is possible that Wake has played a lot of teams with poor outside shooting. I don't think Pomeroy's adjustments get this refined.

But looking at the boxes, BYU was 10 for 32(!), unc was 6 for 23, and Clemson was 5 for 23. So some fairly good shooters had a hard time against Wake.

Ian
01-27-2009, 01:55 PM
Wake's defense is quite effective, but very different from Duke's. In particular, Wake gives up a lot of three pointers (they ranked 269 overall, meaning that they allow more three point attempts than 268 Div. 1 teams), but their opponents don't make those attempts (opponents make only 28.4%, which makes Wake the 5th best team in this category.

Wake also doesn't do much about getting in passing lanes, ranking 117th in causing turnovers.

The fact they give up a lot of 3 attempts but at bad percentages indicates that their interior defense is strong, not that their perimeter defense is weak.

Teams are throwing up 3s against them not because they want to, but because they have to.

MChambers
01-27-2009, 02:32 PM
The fact they give up a lot of 3 attempts but at bad percentages indicates that their interior defense is strong, not that their perimeter defense is weak.

Teams are throwing up 3s against them not because they want to, but because they have to.

that Duke runs its offense to perfection and gets better shots than most.

jv001
01-27-2009, 03:50 PM
And given that the percentage is so low, you'd have to assume Wake does a good job of contesting all those threes, too.

Sort of like Michigan's defense(except zone). They want you take the 3. However I believe Wake's perimeter defense is better than Michigans because of their length. This will be a major test for us and if we pass the test, I believe we may have a very special team on our hands. Well this team is special win or lose. Really fun to watch. Go Duke!

Jumbo
01-27-2009, 04:45 PM
Sort of like Michigan's defense(except zone). They want you take the 3. However I believe Wake's perimeter defense is better than Michigans because of their length. This will be a major test for us and if we pass the test, I believe we may have a very special team on our hands. Well this team is special win or lose. Really fun to watch. Go Duke!

I don't think they "want you" to take anything. Wake plays good defense. They naturally take away much of the inside simply because of their size. But they are not leaving teams alone to shoot open threes. They are challenging shots, which is different from Michigan's approach, where we just missed open trey after open trey. So, no, I don't think they "want you to take the 3."

Chitowndevil
01-27-2009, 04:49 PM
The fact they give up a lot of 3 attempts but at bad percentages indicates that their interior defense is strong, not that their perimeter defense is weak.

Teams are throwing up 3s against them not because they want to, but because they have to.

Agreed. Nearly 36% of their opponents' FG attempts are 3s (that's about highest 20% among D1 teams), yet their opponents are only shooting 28.4% on 3 pointers, which is the 5th lowest nationally. Those are some impressive numbers; to me it says their interior and perimeter defense are both very strong.

For reference, 26.7% of Duke opponents' FG attempts are 3s (15th lowest nationally), and those shots fall at a 29.9% clip (13th nationally). As we all know Duke's defense limits shot attempts from the perimeter. Duke is also much better at generating steals and turnovers. Both Duke AND Wake are ranked in the top 5 in defensive efficiency by Pomeroy (#2 and #5 respectively).

RepoMan
01-27-2009, 05:26 PM
I don't think they "want you" to take anything. Wake plays good defense. They naturally take away much of the inside simply because of their size. But they are not leaving teams alone to shoot open threes. They are challenging shots, which is different from Michigan's approach, where we just missed open trey after open trey. So, no, I don't think they "want you to take the 3."

I only had a chance to watch one Wake game this season, and it was the aberrational Virginia Tech game. What I noticed in that game was that Wake's interior defense was terrifically soft. Toward the end of the game, the Hokies were really challenging the interior defense of Wake (and shooting very well). Not having watched other Wake games, I mistakenly assumed that maybe they simply were not a great defensive team, which clearly is not the case, when you study their season-long statistics. I do wonder if the Virginia Tech strategy of working their interior defense, challenging the basket, and trying to put Wake in foul trouble might be a blueprint some teams follow.

ACCBBallFan
01-27-2009, 06:16 PM
Gotta disagre here. G is not our stopper. He is, in fact, the third best perimeter defender among the three perimeter starters. Nolan guards the opposing point guard. All season, Scheyer has guarded the other team's best wing, whether it has been someone long and athletic like Manny Harris, someone thick like A.D. Vassallo, a small shooter like Jimmy Baron, and everything in betwee. One of G's weaker points is his on-ball D, particularly his lateral movement. He's far more effective roaming the weak side, looking to pick off passes and swat shots close to the rim.

Nolan will start on Teague. The real question is who will start on either Johnson or Aminu? Both those guys are NBA-style, inside-out forwards. Singler will take one, obviously. Normally, Scheyer would guard the best opposing wing, but G might be the better option, given the size/strength difference there. So maybe you put Scheyer on Williams to start and ask G to man up on Aminu or Johnson. On the other hand, there's something to be said about asking Scheyer to take on the challenge of guarding a much bigger player and allowing Henderson to cheat off Williams as a help defender.

Of course, given the fact that Duke will switch all screens, the who-guards-who stuff doesn't mean that much. And defense is about teamwork anyway.
Agree with you here. I think Singler guards Johnson, G Aminu, and Nolan and Jon take turns on Teague and LD Williams with Zoubek obviously on McFarland.

BTW to the poster on first page who alluded to Zoubek tornover prone, not true, old news. This year, he has 14 assists and 15 turnovers in 19 games, outstanding for a big man.

I am expecting a close game. Before Henderson found some game the past couple of weeks, I would have said Wake, now a toss up, though Scheyer has lost his shooting touch lately too.

Whichever of Singler and Johnson gets his counterpart in foul trouble may make the difference, as well as Duke's team (not individual) defensive ability to contain Teague and make him turn the ball over.

Aminu vs Henderson is a mismatch both ways, and Zoubek needs to step up vs McFarland.

Both benches have experience with Paulus, McClure and Thomas for Duke vs. Ish Smith, Harvey Hale and Weaver, edge Duke for McClure's and Thomas's size to guard Johnson or Aminu in pinch, as well as coaching edge.

I guess Jamie Skeen never made it back for second semester, as he cold have made a difference. Woods seems very raw but did play a few decent minutes vs. UNC.

From a first 5 vs. first 5 perspective, edge Wake. From a first 8 vs. first 8 perspective, even.

Pomeroy calls it 74-71 Duke

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?team=Wake%20Forest&t=p

Rating NAME
1152 Kyle Singler
1134 Jeff Teague
1080 James Johnson
1034 Al-Farouq Aminu
0984 Team Totals-Duke
0967 Gerald Henderson
0962 Jon Scheyer
0854 Team Totals-Wake
0800 Chas McFarland
0733 L.D. Williams
0702 Nolan Smith
0563 Brian Zoubek
0489 Greg Paulus
0486 Lance Thomas
0470 David McClure
0423 Ishmael Smith
0419 Harvey Hale
0340 Tony Woods
0311 David Weaver
0301 Elliot Williams
0179 Miles Plumlee
0162 Martynas Pocius
0150 Gary Clark
0066 Olek Czyz
0061 Ty Walker

ACCBBallFan
01-27-2009, 06:38 PM
If you're reading condescension into posts, that's your prerogative. But my post was not condescending. I legitimately want to know why you wouldn't be surprised. Against Georgetown, we replaced Zoubek -- who had been playing his worst ball of the year -- with McClure. That moved served two purposes. 1) It was a wakeup call for Zoubs. 2) It allowed Duke to play small at the beginning against Georgetown's Princeton-style offense, and involved replacing the least established member of Duke's starting five.

So, if you're saying you wouldn't be surprised if someone else started, which guys wouldn't surprise you? And which guys would Duke bench to match up against Wake? And why? Totally different situation with Greg Monroe being perimeter oriented nightmare match up for Z, and Chas McFarland being same mold.

devildownunder
01-27-2009, 06:45 PM
The storming of the court vs the Holes I felt was clueless. Your both top 5 teams, and you beat them on your home floor. You are supposed to do that. I just didn't understand that.

The only kind of student/fan base that considers whether a victory is indeed an appropriate, Emily Post-approved rush-the-floor moment is the kind where big victories are widely expected because they have become, more or less, the norm.

Wake kids don't attend too many home games where both teams are in the top 5. They got excited about winning and rushed the floor. I'm sure they had a great time doing it. Good for them.

Ian
01-27-2009, 07:45 PM
You also have to take into account how much UNC was hyped all summer/fall.

If you go to Wake and spent 9 month listening to how UNC was the one of the greatest teams of all time and could go undefeated. It might make you feel differently about beating them.

devildownunder
01-27-2009, 08:28 PM
I think you're underestimating the difficulty of limiting Teague. I feel confident our half court defense can handle him, but its transition d and turnover prevention that I think will be the problem.

I think this is probably the biggest key to this game for Duke, limiting Teague's penetration in the half court. Others include:

-- how we shoot. We don't have to shoot 60% from 3 but we need high 30s at bare minimum and really, we need to be in the 40s. We probably will not win if we don't knock down open looks, especially against a team with big bodies.
-- Keeping our bigs out of foul trouble early, so they can stay on the floor and stay active. This is critical. I would love to see some zone early, even if Wake lights it up, to protect Z and lance. If our bigs spend 15 minutes on the bench in the first half with 2 fouls, we have an uphill battle. Our ability to limit Teague's penetration will be a big factor in this.
-- half-court efficiency. whether it comes from nolan, greg or jon, we have to be able to get into our half-court offense and run it effectively. We won't be able to count on just transition baskets and points off turnovers, so we'll have to execute in the half-court. This will be a real test for our guys who play the point, as well as the rest of the team.

devildownunder
01-27-2009, 08:40 PM
If he gets 2 fouls early, I think Coach K will pull him for the remainder of the first half; no way he goes into half-time with 3 fouls.



I think that's pretty much standard procedure for most college teams. Only in desperate situations, when a game is rapidly slipping away, do starters come back in before halftime once they pick up that 2nd foul.

weezie
01-27-2009, 08:47 PM
They got excited about winning and rushed the floor.


I plan on running around my den when we win tomorrow night, whether it is socially acceptable or not. And if it means the couch gets trampled, so be it.

SMO
01-27-2009, 08:53 PM
I plan on running around my den when we win tomorrow night, whether it is socially acceptable or not. And if it means the couch gets trampled, so be it.

dream big man, dream big:D

Newton_14
01-27-2009, 09:11 PM
So let's look at this a different way. I'll play the role of Wake fan for a minute...

How does Wake handle Duke?

So here is Boozer The Wake Fan's take:

Can we handle Duke's pressure D on the perimeter? Can they manage all the switching and clogging the lane that Duke does? Xavier surely couldn't. Can McFarland score on Zoubek? Nolan Smith is the toughest defender Teague has seen all year. It will not be as easy as torching Lawson or Rice. I mean you guys all know that neither of those players guard like Smith does. Plus if he can get by Smith, then he runs right into help... Duke plays like 10 times better D than UNC or BC did. I am really worried about that.. I am just not sure we can score on this Duke team. We have not seen defense like this..

And how will we guard Duke?? I mean look at all the weapons they have. Henderson has blown up in conference play. I mean the guy hits threes, midrange jumpers, and he cant be stopped once he gets to the rim unless you foul him and the guy is shooting like 80% from the line! Do we have anyone that can guard him?? He is too quick for our bigs and too big and strong for our guards! I really really worry about this matchup...

And who the heck guards Singler?? I mean the guy is the total package, and can hit the 3 plus post up, and hit the midrange jumper... he is like Henderson without the hops but bigger and stronger... not sure who we have that can stay with him

And then there is Scheyer, he has been slumping but you watch, he will hit every 3 against us. And with us having to focus so much on Henderson and Singler, you know Scheyer will get open looks... he scares me...

And Zoubek has been scoring and I saw that Mclure guy hitting 3's in the Maryland game. Speaking of which did you guys see what they did to Maryland? I mean come on its not like Maryland is a mid-major cupcake.

And Duke still can get points from Smith and Paulus..

I dont know guys,, Duke really presents alot of problems for us. Plus they have juniors and seniors and we have freshman and sophs... I am just not sure if we can win this game!!

devildownunder
01-27-2009, 09:33 PM
So let's look at this a different way. I'll play the role of Wake fan for a minute...

How does Wake handle Duke?

So here is Boozer The Wake Fan's take:

Can we handle Duke's pressure D on the perimeter? Can they manage all the switching and clogging the lane that Duke does? Xavier surely couldn't. Can McFarland score on Zoubek? Nolan Smith is the toughest defender Teague has seen all year. It will not be as easy as torching Lawson or Rice. I mean you guys all know that neither of those players guard like Smith does. Plus if he can get by Smith, then he runs right into help... Duke plays like 10 times better D than UNC or BC did. I am really worried about that.. I am just not sure we can score on this Duke team. We have not seen defense like this..

And how will we guard Duke?? I mean look at all the weapons they have. Henderson has blown up in conference play. I mean the guy hits threes, midrange jumpers, and he cant be stopped once he gets to the rim unless you foul him and the guy is shooting like 80% from the line! Do we have anyone that can guard him?? He is too quick for our bigs and too big and strong for our guards! I really really worry about this matchup...

And who the heck guards Singler?? I mean the guy is the total package, and can hit the 3 plus post up, and hit the midrange jumper... he is like Henderson without the hops but bigger and stronger... not sure who we have that can stay with him

And then there is Scheyer, he has been slumping but you watch, he will hit every 3 against us. And with us having to focus so much on Henderson and Singler, you know Scheyer will get open looks... he scares me...

And Zoubek has been scoring and I saw that Mclure guy hitting 3's in the Maryland game. Speaking of which did you guys see what they did to Maryland? I mean come on its not like Maryland is a mid-major cupcake.

And Duke still can get points from Smith and Paulus..

I dont know guys,, Duke really presents alot of problems for us. Plus they have juniors and seniors and we have freshman and sophs... I am just not sure if we can win this game!!

Wake is unbeatable.

Kedsy
01-27-2009, 10:44 PM
So let's look at this a different way. I'll play the role of Wake fan for a minute...

How does Wake handle Duke?

So here is Boozer The Wake Fan's take:

Can we handle Duke's pressure D on the perimeter? Can they manage all the switching and clogging the lane that Duke does? Xavier surely couldn't. Can McFarland score on Zoubek? Nolan Smith is the toughest defender Teague has seen all year. It will not be as easy as torching Lawson or Rice. I mean you guys all know that neither of those players guard like Smith does. Plus if he can get by Smith, then he runs right into help... Duke plays like 10 times better D than UNC or BC did. I am really worried about that.. I am just not sure we can score on this Duke team. We have not seen defense like this..

And how will we guard Duke?? I mean look at all the weapons they have. Henderson has blown up in conference play. I mean the guy hits threes, midrange jumpers, and he cant be stopped once he gets to the rim unless you foul him and the guy is shooting like 80% from the line! Do we have anyone that can guard him?? He is too quick for our bigs and too big and strong for our guards! I really really worry about this matchup...

And who the heck guards Singler?? I mean the guy is the total package, and can hit the 3 plus post up, and hit the midrange jumper... he is like Henderson without the hops but bigger and stronger... not sure who we have that can stay with him

And then there is Scheyer, he has been slumping but you watch, he will hit every 3 against us. And with us having to focus so much on Henderson and Singler, you know Scheyer will get open looks... he scares me...

And Zoubek has been scoring and I saw that Mclure guy hitting 3's in the Maryland game. Speaking of which did you guys see what they did to Maryland? I mean come on its not like Maryland is a mid-major cupcake.

And Duke still can get points from Smith and Paulus..

I dont know guys,, Duke really presents alot of problems for us. Plus they have juniors and seniors and we have freshman and sophs... I am just not sure if we can win this game!!

Actually, I think you are misrepresenting the Wake fan's probable point of view. I am not a Wake fan but if I were I'd be thinking McFarland is better than Zoubek, Johnson is at least as good as Singler and a lot stronger, that Aminu is as good or almost as good an athlete as Henderson and is a lot taller. I'd be thinking Nolan Smith may be a really good defender but he's never defended anybody as good as Teague. I'd be thinking Scheyer's going to be a challenge but LD Williams is good at guarding people Scheyer's size so he won't have such an easy time getting his shot. I'd also be thinking Duke won't be able to switch like they did against Xavier and Maryland because their smaller bodies can't handle Wake's bigger ones, that Wake's bench has more big bodies than Duke's if foul trouble arises, and that if Ish Smith or LD Williams or Harvey Hale have good games how is Duke going to cope with that when their hands are full with Teague, Johnson, Aminu, and McFarland? If I were a Wake fan I'd be pissed the team lost to Virginia Tech and I'd be planning to take it out on an overrated Duke team at the comfy comfines of whatever Wake's arena is called. In short, I'd be expecting to rush the court again.

Fortunately I'm not a Wake fan, so I'm not thinking any of those things, but my guess is they're not very afraid of us at all. I hope we make them pay for that overconfidence.

pfrduke
01-27-2009, 11:07 PM
I'm making an immediate mental note to look into whether his assessment of our offense is statistically accurate or whether this is just broadcaster-speak. We've had some significant offensive issues in the second half of some games (FSU - although it was still better than the first half - Davidson, Xavier). I'll check back in tonight when I can get home and take a look at my info to see if we do, in fact, perform better on offense in the second half.

So, on the season, we have performed better on offense in the second half than in the first. Our second half offensive rating is 116.56, while the first half is 112.54. It's particularly notable in ACC play. 93.21 in the first half against 126.95 in the second half. We've scored 212 second half points and just 151 first half points.

bludvlman
01-28-2009, 12:14 AM
It will be one of my best friend's 21st birthday, so I have to go out with him fortunately we are going to a bar so I bet it will be carrying the game.

I have a really bad feeling about this game.

bludvlman
01-28-2009, 12:17 AM
Am I the only one suprised to see us as the favorites? (1 1/2pts)

geraldsneighbor
01-28-2009, 12:23 AM
i'll be brief.
Last year Scheyer and Henderson were complete non factors with Geralf scoring 6 points and Jon being held scoreless.

The entire starting 5 fouled out.

Nolan was the only bright spot with 21 points in 18 minutes.

This year Wake is expected to have a shot, last year they were playing the role of underdog.

If Duke can handle the size of Wake's front line and continue to get great production out of G and Kyle Duke should. Teague and Johnson played great last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them again. Duke needs to match the intensity, and the glass is a huge spot on where that will be determined.

wisteria
01-28-2009, 01:08 AM
I am going over to a friend's house for this one. Duke never lost when I watch in this particular friend's place. So, I say, we win ! :D

Bob Green
01-28-2009, 03:34 AM
I am going over to a friend's house for this one. Duke never lost when I watch in this particular friend's place. So, I say, we win ! :D

I say, move in! :D Okay, I'll compromise, move in on March 1st for a six week stay.

Uncle Drew
01-28-2009, 05:27 AM
Well since someone mentioned bithdays this would have been my ex wife and my 3rd anniversary. We got married that day and Duke with JJ and company played Virginia that night. Of course being a Duke fan I was all wedding, shmedding......there's a Duke game coming on. I don't think my ex believed me when I told her we would not consumate the marriage if Duke lost. For her sake (yeah I'm arrogant like that) Duke won.

BTW1: 01/28/86 was the day the Challenger exploded upon take off in Florida. I know this very well because......

BTW2: That was the day before my 16th birthday, so yes tomorrow is my birthday and doing the math I'm not looking forward to it but.........

Go Duke!!!!!

rthomas
01-28-2009, 08:44 AM
It's 8:45 in the morning, siting here in cold, snowy, icy Morgantown, WV and all I can think about is the game tonight. I can't freakin' wait that long!

Let Go Duke! Let's go Duke! Let's Go Duke.

I'm not going to get much work done today.

billybreen
01-28-2009, 08:51 AM
Agreed. I'm jacked up, though not necessarily excited to see so much ugly tie dye.

DukeUsul
01-28-2009, 08:54 AM
I have class tonight. Grrrrrrr. Should I follow the game on the gametracker during class or just watch the DVR'd version when I get home?

Johnboy
01-28-2009, 09:04 AM
I have class tonight. Grrrrrrr. Should I follow the game on the gametracker during class or just watch the DVR'd version when I get home?

DVR is how I would go. Actually, I'd blow off class if at all possible. I'm probably blowing off church choir rehearsal. Eruditio et basketballio, I guess.

moonpie23
01-28-2009, 09:06 AM
So let's look at this a different way. I'll play the role of Wake fan for a minute...

How does Wake handle Duke?

So here is Boozer The Wake Fan's take:

Can we handle Duke's pressure D on the perimeter? Can they manage all the switching and clogging the lane that Duke does? Xavier surely couldn't. Can McFarland score on Zoubek? Nolan Smith is the toughest defender Teague has seen all year. It will not be as easy as torching Lawson or Rice. I mean you guys all know that neither of those players guard like Smith does. Plus if he can get by Smith, then he runs right into help... Duke plays like 10 times better D than UNC or BC did. I am really worried about that.. I am just not sure we can score on this Duke team. We have not seen defense like this..

And how will we guard Duke?? I mean look at all the weapons they have. Henderson has blown up in conference play. I mean the guy hits threes, midrange jumpers, and he cant be stopped once he gets to the rim unless you foul him and the guy is shooting like 80% from the line! Do we have anyone that can guard him?? He is too quick for our bigs and too big and strong for our guards! I really really worry about this matchup...

And who the heck guards Singler?? I mean the guy is the total package, and can hit the 3 plus post up, and hit the midrange jumper... he is like Henderson without the hops but bigger and stronger... not sure who we have that can stay with him

And then there is Scheyer, he has been slumping but you watch, he will hit every 3 against us. And with us having to focus so much on Henderson and Singler, you know Scheyer will get open looks... he scares me...

And Zoubek has been scoring and I saw that Mclure guy hitting 3's in the Maryland game. Speaking of which did you guys see what they did to Maryland? I mean come on its not like Maryland is a mid-major cupcake.

And Duke still can get points from Smith and Paulus..

I dont know guys,, Duke really presents alot of problems for us. Plus they have juniors and seniors and we have freshman and sophs... I am just not sure if we can win this game!!


that's a duke fan POSING as a wake fan...

quickgtp
01-28-2009, 09:15 AM
DVR is how I would go. Actually, I'd blow off class if at all possible. I'm probably blowing off church choir rehearsal. Eruditio et basketballio, I guess.

Yes, I agree. If you track it during class you wont get much done and/or absorb much. I would either skip it or use the ol' DVR!

geraldsneighbor
01-28-2009, 09:17 AM
Thankfully its a 7pm ordeal, so it atleast shortens the wait a few hours.

slower
01-28-2009, 09:24 AM
Thankfully its a 7pm ordeal, so it atleast shortens the wait a few hours.


Plus, it's not a 9PM game, so we won't have to watch the end of the 7PM game and miss the beginning of our game. I want to see ALL of this one. Nervously excited - wouldn't be surprised to see us lose, but I think a win should make us a legit #1 in everybody's eyes. Gonna be a war, could get VERY chippy. Afraid we might need every available body (and foul) for this one.

pamtar
01-28-2009, 09:26 AM
Agreed. I'm jacked up, though not necessarily excited to see so much ugly tie dye.

The tie dye I can live with. Its that damn song they sing over and over that grinds my gears.

calltheobvious
01-28-2009, 10:01 AM
We have a one-TV household. The general agreement is that I can monopolize the TV for sports one weekend-day a week, but that I use the DVR to watch games during the week. Not tonight. I reserved the TV for tonight several days in advance, and my wife graciously agreed to work late tonight so that I can be as boorish as I like all game long.

I just hope that I'm fit for company upon her return.

CLT Devil
01-28-2009, 10:07 AM
Hard to concenrate today. Should be a great game...two great defenses, whoever's offense is playing better will likely win, as dumb as that sounds.

With the tye dyes, that blasted song and the Deacon on the Harley; I live in NC and its widely accepted that the school or Prosser wanted to amp up interest for students going to games so they hired a PR firm to invent all of those 'traditions.' It seems to make sense as they all three hit the scene at once. Anyone else know anything about it?

jv001
01-28-2009, 10:15 AM
Plus, it's not a 9PM game, so we won't have to watch the end of the 7PM game and miss the beginning of our game. I want to see ALL of this one. Nervously excited - wouldn't be surprised to see us lose, but I think a win should make us a legit #1 in everybody's eyes. Gonna be a war, could get VERY chippy. Afraid we might need every available body (and foul) for this one.

I've got the dvr set for the game as I will be in Church. So I hope no none tells me the score but my preacher is a Duke fan and he always asks someone what the score is. I have not been this excited over a Wake game in a long time. Go Duke!

elvis14
01-28-2009, 10:18 AM
I just come on there to post about how jacked up I am for this game. For me, I've been very focussed and getting lots of work done this morning. I know that seems backwards but I want to get home by 7:00 so I need to bust it to make sure I get enough done and I forgot to set my DVR so I need to be here for the start of the game (or call the wife and have her DVR it).

I'd really like to win this game and solidify that #1 ranking we might actuallly deserve!

Also, despite losing to Wake last year, the Wake game was where Nolan got aggressive, went off and showed that why he's the Duke starter!

Props to my wife who was kind enough to make sure my favorite Duke shirt is clean for today! She's the best!

sagegrouse
01-28-2009, 10:25 AM
I should be able to watch the game semi-live. I'm picking up my wife at the airport. Her flight arrives at 422PM Mountain Time, so I probably can't make the 500 PM tip-off. But I'll catch up when I get home.

sagegrouse
'Snowing yet again in Steamboat'

BlueDevilJay
01-28-2009, 10:30 AM
It's 8:45 in the morning, siting here in cold, snowy, icy Morgantown, WV and all I can think about is the game tonight. I can't freakin' wait that long!

Let Go Duke! Let's go Duke! Let's Go Duke.

I'm not going to get much work done today.

Hilarious, I'm doing the same thing at work today. I've even been offered tix by a Wake fan to drive about 5 miles down the road here and attend the game. I swore after going there last season that I would not attend another Duke game @ Wake until we beat them. I felt that I jinxed them last year, and my very presence altered the ref's into fouling out our entire starting lineup. :) I CANNOT WAIT until 7pm tonight!

jv001
01-28-2009, 10:37 AM
Hilarious, I'm doing the same thing at work today. I've even been offered tix by a Wake fan to drive about 5 miles down the road here and attend the game. I swore after going there last season that I would not attend another Duke game @ Wake until we beat them. I felt that I jinxed them last year, and my very presence altered the ref's into fouling out our entire starting lineup. :) I CANNOT WAIT until 7pm tonight!

Your Wake friend wants you to jinx Duke again this year. Watch in on TV. Go Duke!

dyedwab
01-28-2009, 10:38 AM
It's 8:45 in the morning, siting here in cold, snowy, icy Morgantown, WV and all I can think about is the game tonight. I can't freakin' wait that long!

Let Go Duke! Let's go Duke! Let's Go Duke.

I'm not going to get much work done today.

..is Amen, brother! Exactly what I was thinking here in icy DC. And I have to say that the wintry weather always get my adrenaline for big games flowing even harder.

I'm looking forward to tonight. Think Dave McClure and his ability to defend basically any position will be critical.


Let's Go Devils.

I_am_a_Blue_Devil
01-28-2009, 10:41 AM
I understand the need of DVR'ing a game, as i have had to in the past, and fortunately I am able to catch most games. But man o man is it hard not to know whats going on when its going on. I have had people text me at every commercial break, or stayed on the phone for hours to get the play by play. Even just getting to the tv in the middle of a game and watching it from the begining on DVR is so hard. I cant stand thinking that something critical may be happening while i watch stuff that has already happened...............ANYWAY i guess i should just be happy that i have DVR and have the option to see the whole game now matter what the scenario.

Its one of those things where we (or I) am never satisfied. 10 years ago i would have killled for something like DVR, and now its not good enough hahaha.

I will be watching tonight at tipoff so all this is a moot point for tonight!

LETS GO DUKE!

(for good measure) GO TO HELL carolina GO TO HELL

BlueDevilJay
01-28-2009, 10:55 AM
Your Wake friend wants you to jinx Duke again this year. Watch in on TV. Go Duke!

Yep, exactly. Last year the night was bad from the getgo. I tried taking my dad (lifelong Duke fan) and we had an encounter with a rather drunk Wake 'student' on the way in, with him deciding to get in my dad's face and talk trash. I ended up throwing him out of the way, with his friends telling him to stop being a jerk, but I knew then it was going to be a bad night. After the game I swore I wouldn't go back until we won there, so dad and I will be watching in HD tonight at my place :)

I_am_a_Blue_Devil
01-28-2009, 10:55 AM
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=3865472

I generally feel that Hubert does a decent job of remaining unbiased, and I sure this was a scripted piece, however this shouldn't be titled DUKE-wake Preview, it should be called, How wake can win.............

lifelongdevil
01-28-2009, 11:00 AM
having grown up in Winston and now being at Duke, sitting in an 8:30 class this morning was pretty rough. Im leaving right after my last class to go to the game!

weegipup
01-28-2009, 11:09 AM
"Sport Chant Remix" by a German techno band called Zombie Nation. Wake was the first to use it and now it is heard at games everywhere. The song debuted at Joel on February 13, 2003 in the double-overtime victory over Duke.

http://wakeforestsports.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/recaps/021303aab.html

Now is the time on Sprockets when we dance . . .

RelativeWays
01-28-2009, 11:23 AM
I'm interested to see how our team behaves. Last year's game at Wake tore back the curtain that team, we never were the same after that loss and the loss to Miami. Now we should have revenge on our mind with a number 1 ranking that 95% of the country doesnt think we deserve. This is a far bigger statement game for Duke than it is Wake. Wake proved it could beat the best of the nation when they toppled UNC, the VT loss, while an upset, doesn't really change that. People are convinced that while Duke is a great defensive team, we haven't played anyone with the offense of Wake or UNC. This is honestly as big a game for Duke right now as the UNC game in a couple of weeks, though for different reasons. A win over Wake at LJVM will definitely change how other people see Duke as contenders AND it will be a huge confidence boost to our team.

Devil in the Blue Dress
01-28-2009, 11:34 AM
Hard to concenrate today. Should be a great game...two great defenses, whoever's offense is playing better will likely win, as dumb as that sounds.

With the tye dyes, that blasted song and the Deacon on the Harley; I live in NC and its widely accepted that the school or Prosser wanted to amp up interest for students going to games so they hired a PR firm to invent all of those 'traditions.' It seems to make sense as they all three hit the scene at once. Anyone else know anything about it?
Wake needed a boost and then Prosser arrived. I'm glad for them that things have improved in football and basketball.... makes playing them more fun and makes the wins mean something. Duke - Wake games at one time were a big deal*. Glad we've cycled back to that level.

*I'm referring to the days when Art Heyman played at Duke and Lenny Chappell played at Wake. Oh, the fights they fought!

KyDevilinIL
01-28-2009, 11:56 AM
Perhaps the most important January game Duke has played in several years. It'll help shape the futures for at least three, maybe four, ACC teams as the season progresses.

Still, it's just 20 percent of Duke's major conference tests this season, so while it'll be fun, I'm trying to keep it in perspective.

MonitorMom
01-28-2009, 12:18 PM
A couple car loads of students have tickets and are headed Wake's way. Try as I might to keep my Mom nagging to a minimum, I pleaded for the bumper sticker to be covered, no Duke gear worn and to remember to be good guests. Probably over the top nagging but a win AND a safe trip back to Durham is what I'm prayin' for.

ncexnyc
01-28-2009, 12:49 PM
I've had the pleasure of talking mucho smack to my co-workers (99.9% UNC fans) these past few weeks. Hopefully I won't be getting served a large portion of crow after tonights game. :D

It should be a great game, unfortunately I'll be at work, but will definitely have it on DVR for my return early tomorrow morning.;)

jv001
01-28-2009, 01:32 PM
Yep, exactly. Last year the night was bad from the getgo. I tried taking my dad (lifelong Duke fan) and we had an encounter with a rather drunk Wake 'student' on the way in, with him deciding to get in my dad's face and talk trash. I ended up throwing him out of the way, with his friends telling him to stop being a jerk, but I knew then it was going to be a bad night. After the game I swore I wouldn't go back until we won there, so dad and I will be watching in HD tonight at my place :)

Now I feel better about tonight's game. Hopefully you can return next year after we defeat them tonight. Go Yadkin County and Go Duke!

elvis14
01-28-2009, 01:42 PM
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=3865472

I generally feel that Hubert does a decent job of remaining unbiased, and I sure this was a scripted piece, however this shouldn't be titled DUKE-wake Preview, it should be called, How wake can win.............

Jay Williams does a better job: http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=3865122

9F

Billy Dat
01-28-2009, 01:51 PM
Finally looked it up...saw we are favored at -1.5. Very interesting. Granted, the whole point of the line is to get equal money on both sides. I'd have thought Wake would be favored, especially considering our recent track record at Lawrence Joel. I haven't seen if the line has moved this week.

BlueintheFace
01-28-2009, 02:17 PM
I just want to remind everyone to keep some perspective going in to this game!

- Remember what your expectations for this team were going in to the season.

- Remember that, if we lose, we may still be a final-four caliber team. We will have lost to a very good team that might find itself in Detroit just as easily.

- Remember that bad shooting nights happen occasionally. A great defense can only keep you in games with great teams, not win them.

- Remember that we are just in the middle of the season and we have a long way to go yet.

- Remember that this is a very tough AWAY game in the ACC and that we will see WF again.

All that being said, I hope we prove to ourselves (more than the rest of the country) that we are one of the best teams in the nation and can win it all with smart play, great D, and a lot of heart. Let's beat the hell out of Wake!!!

davekay1971
01-28-2009, 02:25 PM
The Luke Wynn article about James Johnson is a pretty cool read. It begs the question: who is tougher - Johnson or Singler. We all know they could both kick Chuck Norris's butt, but on the other hand Nate James could destroy them both simultaneously with one pinky.

So, the rank order of toughness...
1) Nate James
2/3) Singler or Johnson
4) Chuck Norris

jpfrizzle
01-28-2009, 02:54 PM
Go DUKE ! ! ! !

Billy Dat
01-28-2009, 03:32 PM
I just want to remind everyone to keep some perspective going in to this game!

- Remember what your expectations for this team were going in to the season.

- Remember that, if we lose, we may still be a final-four caliber team. We will have lost to a very good team that might find itself in Detroit just as easily.

- Remember that bad shooting nights happen occasionally. A great defense can only keep you in games with great teams, not win them.

- Remember that we are just in the middle of the season and we have a long way to go yet.

- Remember that this is a very tough AWAY game in the ACC and that we will see WF again.

All that being said, I hope we prove to ourselves (more than the rest of the country) that we are one of the best teams in the nation and can win it all with smart play, great D, and a lot of heart. Let's beat the hell out of Wake!!!

Agree, and I'll add another wrinkle....games like this are what being a fan is all about. We spend all year talking about March and, hopefully, April. More often then not, the post-season flies by in a heartbeat, even if we win a few games. "Enjoying the Journey" is about games like this. Whether we win or lose, I've been excited for this game for days, reading everything I can get my hands on, posting comments, not doing the job I am paid to do, etc. Win or lose, I am just glad to be this excited about something in cold, dismal January.

CameronBornAndBred
01-28-2009, 06:10 PM
I'm drinking my pre-game brew (homebrewed smokey IPA), and getting very excited! Halfway wish this were a 9pm game, but I'll take it. I don't think the TV basketball gods foresaw the magnitude of this game, I didn't. GO DUKE!

JDev
01-28-2009, 06:22 PM
I'm drinking my pre-game brew (homebrewed smokey IPA), and getting very excited! Halfway wish this were a 9pm game, but I'll take it. I don't think the TV basketball gods foresaw the magnitude of this game, I didn't. GO DUKE!

It seems like this year, all the Wednesday ESPN feature college games are at 7, because they are showing NBA games immediately after at 9. I would probably prefer a 9 p.m. start also.
Either way, I am looking forward to a great game.

Karl Beem
01-28-2009, 07:01 PM
Looks like a Clippers game!:cool:

TexasDevil
01-28-2009, 07:04 PM
The Demon Deacon riding the motorcycle, etc. made it look like the preview to an NBA game.

davekay1971
01-28-2009, 07:44 PM
Awesome dunk by Plumlee!!!!!!!!

dukebluelemur
01-28-2009, 07:48 PM
Are we playing with a beach ball on our end of the court to be shooting under 30%, or is their defense that good?

dbd4ever
01-28-2009, 07:53 PM
Am I wrong or was Teague's foot on the line when McFarland handed him the ball back before he hit that shot?!?!?!

DownEastDevil
01-28-2009, 07:57 PM
Am I wrong or was Teague's foot on the line when McFarland handed him the ball back before he hit that shot?!?!?!

I thought the very same thing. I'm going to have to run my DVR back and check it out.

DownEastDevil
01-28-2009, 08:00 PM
I thought the very same thing. I'm going to have to run my DVR back and check it out.

Not only was he out of bounds but both feet were.

devildownunder
01-28-2009, 08:02 PM
Are we playing with a beach ball on our end of the court to be shooting under 30%, or is their defense that good?


we are 2-12 from 3pt range. That suggests to me shot selection is more at fault than Wake's D. The game works inside out, fellas. We didn't make that rule but we have to live by it. Gotta have some balance in the 2nd half -- and need to keep Gerald out of foul trouble.

Karl Beem
01-28-2009, 08:05 PM
Or maybe we're missing. Dude, they're bigger and are blocking our shots inside.

Duvall
01-28-2009, 08:06 PM
we are 2-12 from 3pt range. That suggests to me shot selection is more at fault than Wake's D. The game works inside out, fellas. We didn't make that rule but we have to live by it. Gotta have some balance in the 2nd half -- and need to keep Gerald out of foul trouble.

Yeah, okay. Did you watch the first half? 2-12 is a hell of a lot better than Duke got from its post players.

House G
01-28-2009, 08:06 PM
When you run your DVR back, look at the first foul called on Gerald (a pushoff when he was driving into the key at about the 13:30 mark).

dbd4ever
01-28-2009, 08:07 PM
The only way to keep him out of foul trouble is to replace the ref that was under the Duke basket. What game is he watching?!?!?!?!?! We can beat this team!!!! The only two players they have that can get their own is Teague and Aminu. One thing I can say is that the officiating can't get much worse!!!! There I had to say it!!!! Sorry guys, but it was terrible!!!

dukebluelemur
01-28-2009, 08:07 PM
we are 2-12 from 3pt range. That suggests to me shot selection is more at fault than Wake's D. The game works inside out, fellas. We didn't make that rule but we have to live by it. Gotta have some balance in the 2nd half -- and need to keep Gerald out of foul trouble.

I dunno, were still 8 for 27 from 2.... its not like were shooting all threes, or just missing threes. Stat thingy shows us missing a lot of layups. (I doubt Z and lance were shooting threes.)

davekay1971
01-28-2009, 08:14 PM
Brand new dunk of the year by Henderson...

And I wish Dick Vitale would just...shut...up...

devildownunder
01-28-2009, 08:18 PM
Yeah, okay. Did you watch the first half? 2-12 is a hell of a lot better than Duke got from its post players.

No. Cuz i can't. Which is why I said "suggests" as opposed to making a definite statement. I can see from comments that our post players are really struggling. If that's the case, I'm not suggesting we pound it in to them. What I am saying is that if we don't get some interior production somehow (penetration, fast break points off D, whatever) we won't win. And if those 3s were such great shots, we'd have made more than 17 per cent of them.

Jumbo
01-28-2009, 08:34 PM
No. Cuz i can't. Which is why I said "suggests" as opposed to making a definite statement. I can see from comments that our post players are really struggling. If that's the case, I'm not suggesting we pound it in to them. What I am saying is that if we don't get some interior production somehow (penetration, fast break points off D, whatever) we won't win. And if those 3s were such great shots, we'd have made more than 17 per cent of them.

Bottom line is Wake is contesting every shot. We've had a couple of wide open looks from threes, but Wake's D has been outstanding. Considering you can't see the game, I think you should back off just a little bit in your analysis.

Meanwhile, I've achieved a certainly level of peace about this game, regardless of whether we are able to come back. I'll explain more after the game.

slower
01-28-2009, 08:38 PM
is going south quickly. Not seeing any comeback here.

dbd4ever
01-28-2009, 08:42 PM
We look very uninterested!!! We make a good play but can't follow it up to make a run!! They're not as good as the announcers are making them out to be.

dbd4ever
01-28-2009, 08:45 PM
Earth to Jon Scheyer!!!!!! We need you!!!

House G
01-28-2009, 08:57 PM
Henderson will be relieved to know that most of his fouls tonight will not be called in the NBA.

dbd4ever
01-28-2009, 08:58 PM
The push by Johnson on the baseline came before the hook by Henderson??

Karl Beem
01-28-2009, 09:09 PM
After all that. Nolan just left him go.

concrete
01-28-2009, 09:11 PM
thta actually was hendersons man, he pushed henderson out of the way


I dunno if that should have been called a walk on Henderson when he was grabbed in the air.

Karl Beem
01-28-2009, 09:12 PM
thta actually was hendersons man, he pushed henderson out of the way


I dunno if that should have been called a walk on Henderson when he was grabbed in the air.

Then he went right by Nolan.

quickgtp
01-28-2009, 09:13 PM
Can someone please tell me why we didnt have ANY size on the last play? That was a BIG mistake IMO.

FerryFor50
01-28-2009, 09:13 PM
thta actually was hendersons man, he pushed henderson out of the way


I dunno if that should have been called a walk on Henderson when he was grabbed in the air.

Agreed. Very poor call. Not only was he grabbed in the air, he landed on a Wake player, which is why he fell.

Walk? No foul?

Sigh.

rockymtn devil
01-28-2009, 09:13 PM
Great effort and a fun end of the game. After looking bad for most of the night (slow and lazy) the defense turned it up and G and Singler played out of their minds down the stretch. No complaints from me. This game affirms as much as it would've had we come back and won. Even more so, it proved to me how tough this team is mentally.

Question: how was that a travel by G at the end? He came down to the ground with the rebound but didn't move at all. It should've been a tie up, IMO. I believe that would've given the ball to Wake anyway.