Henderson NBA draft stock

[geraldsneighbor]

At this pace, G is seeing his draft status sky rocket. Is there any chance him and Kyle both stick around? I am starting to see this as a looming possibility G could leave with the numbers he is putting up. I do expect Kyle to stay and felt the same about Gerald two weeks ago.

[DukeCO2009]

If G continues to play this way, he'd be a fool not to go. Kyle will stick around.

[geraldsneighbor]

Two of the sports center top 10 plays tonight. I don't know how many he has this year but it is several.

[wisteria]

Rightnow ESPN homepage features sportscenter segment entirely dedicated to Gerald. I'm afraid that if G keeps this up, it's going to be bittersweet.

[Bob Green]

I believe we would all be better off focusing on this season. We are in the meat of the ACC schedule with some key games fastly approaching. Instead of wondering about Gerald's draft stock we should be enjoying the ride.

[Troublemaker]

Agree with Bob. Anything can happen, so just enjoy the ride. That said, I think both G and Kyle will be back. Both guys project as role players in the NBA (imo), so why not enjoy being BMOC for as long as you can? Their stocks would more likely climb than slide with each additional year in college. G has a lot of remaining skills that need development and honing. Kyle is only scratching the surface of how great he'll be as an upperclassmen. Stay in school, be a star, have fun. That's what I'd do.

[snowdenscold]

Not that it always matters (e.g. Dunleavy) but Henderson's family is well off so it's not like he feels compelled to leave early to support his family. Silver lining?

[weezie]

I believe we would all be better off focusing on this season. We are in the meat of the ACC schedule with some key games fastly approaching. Instead of wondering about Gerald's draft stock we should be enjoying the ride.

Yeah, I agree. This always makes bums me out when these discussions start, even if it is meant as a compliment. Just keep them all scoring and hungry!

[geraldsneighbor]

Haha, I agree Bob. I just started this in hopes everyone would tell me he is staying.

[Jeffrey]

Not that it always matters (e.g. Dunleavy) but Henderson's family is well off so it's not like he feels compelled to leave early to support his family. Silver lining?

Hi,

I think it did matter with Dunleavy and he only left when his dad practically confirmed he would be a top 5 pick. IMO, it's hard to argue a top 5 pick should stay and very few players have the connections (confirmations) Dunleavy Sr. had at draft time.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

[DukeSince'77]

If 'G' leads our team to the Final Four/Championship this year, I say thanks for the ride and good luck at the next level!!!

[sagegrouse]

Let me quote my favorite source (:o:o:o:rolleyes:):

If a player is a certain lottery pick and is physically ready for the NBA, he would have to be crazy not to go to the league. The fact that Hansbrough (Psycho T) did not go into the draft merely proves my point.

sagegrouse

[JasonEvans]

Let me quote my favorite source (:o:o:o:rolleyes:):

If a player is a certain lottery pick and is physically ready for the NBA, he would have to be crazy not to go to the league. The fact that Hansbrough (Psycho T) did not go into the draft merely proves my point.

sagegrouse

But Hasbro would not have been a lottery pick last year.

-J

[dukestheheat]

I don't see either player as a lottery pick right now. That said, I do expect both players to return to Duke next year.

dth.

[Matches]

Let me quote my favorite source (:o:o:o:rolleyes:):

If a player is a certain lottery pick and is physically ready for the NBA, he would have to be crazy not to go to the league. The fact that Hansbrough (Psycho T) did not go into the draft merely proves my point.



Agreed on both counts. Frankly I think anyone who is a sure first-rounder ought to at least give it a long look. If there's a chance for someone to move up from, say, #23 to #4 by staying another year, then so be it - but increasingly I don't think that's realistic scenario. The NBA drafts much more based on "upside" than college performance, and "upside" has usually been determined after one or two years of college ball. No way Hansbrough should still be in school - fine he's BMOC but he's 25 years old - time to move on.

So many of these discussions tend to revolve around people who have never met a player speculating as to what the player thinks - often fans project their own mindset onto the player. I recall a guy calling sports radio after the Holes won in 2005 talking about how Felton would surely stay because he would value trying to repeat - the caller had never met Felton - HE valued repeating and projected that onto a player he liked.

Bottom line - it's only January - Hendo has been out of sight lately, and if he continues to display freakish skills the rest of the season he will be a lottery pick, and will probably leave. If that's the case we should wish him the best and thank him for three years of representing the school well.

[sagegrouse]

But Hasbro would not have been a lottery pick last year.

-J

Why are you stepping on my punch lines with an appeal to facts? I don't do that to you.

sagegrouse

[Highlander]

But Hasbro would not have been a lottery pick last year.

-J

Who is this Hasbro guy, and does he have a brother named Mattel?

[77devil]

Hi,

I think it did matter with Dunleavy and he only left when his dad practically confirmed he would be a top 5 pick. IMO, it's hard to argue a top 5 pick should stay and very few players have the connections (confirmations) Dunleavy Sr. had at draft time.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

I suspect Gerald Sr. has enough NBA connections to confirm.

[jimsumner]

Bob is right. None of these guys are going to make any decisions one way or the other until after the end of the season. So, why worry about it now, when they aren't.

[Ignatius07]

Bob is right. None of these guys are going to make any decisions one way or the other until after the end of the season. So, why worry about it now, when they aren't.

That's a good point. How he plays in March will be much more relevant to his draft stock than how he plays in January.

That said, the way he is playing now I would be very surprised to come back. For posters that say he enjoys college and enjoys the team, that can be true and he can still want to play in the NBA. That is the dream - rightfully so - for most of these guys.

Agreed with the poster who said if Henderson leads us to a Final Four or more I'd consider it more than a fair deal.

[Abraxas]

Draft Express NBA has G. Henderson at #13 but for the 2010 draft.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Gerald-Henderson-1042/

and at the 2010 mock draft, they have Scheyer at #18 and N. Smith at #19 (as a Junior) in the 2nd round. However, they have K. Singler in the 2009 draft as #13 of the 1st round.

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2009/
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2010/

I don't think that Singler will leave in 2009 but until 2010. I also think that although G resembles Vince Carter, I think that he will play his senior season at Duke.

[Jeffrey]

I suspect Gerald Sr. has enough NBA connections to confirm.

Hi,

You're correct, I was implying such and one would be foolish not to take advantage of all available information.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

[Classof06]

But anything short of a national title this season and I believe Henderson and Singler will return. And I've felt that way all along.

With the long needed additions of size in MP2 and Ryan Kelly next year, if Singler and Henderson are on the roster, Duke will be a very strong favorite to win national championship. In fact, there's a decent chance they'll be the prohibitive favorite.

Obviously, Gerald will have a tough choice to make at season's end. But with the postseason mishaps these kids have had the past few years (VCU, WVU), I find it hard to believe Gerald would balk at a VERY real chance to cut down the nets in 09-10. There's a reason he came to Duke.



Disclaimer: While I'm very high on this team and believe we can play with anyone, I'm not fully convinced we can win it all this year....yet..

[ice-9]

But anything short of a national title this season and I believe Henderson and Singler will return. And I've felt that way all along.

With the long needed additions of size in MP2 and Ryan Kelly next year, if Singler and Henderson are on the roster, Duke will be a very strong favorite to win national championship. In fact, there's a decent chance they'll be the prohibitive favorite.

Obviously, Gerald will have a tough choice to make at season's end. But with the postseason mishaps these kids have had the past few years (VCU, WVU), I find it hard to believe Gerald would balk at a VERY real chance to cut down the nets in 09-10. There's a reason he came to Duke.



Disclaimer: While I'm very high on this team and believe we can play with anyone, I'm not fully convinced we can win it all this year....yet..


While I agree that a team next season feature Singler, Henderson, our current cast (minus the seniors and potential transfers) plus MP2 and RK would be one of the favorites to win the championship...

...it'll be because of Singler, Henderson, Scheyer and a seasoned Nolan. NOT because of MP2 and RK. I suspect their impact will be material but not game changing.

Now if we had a NBA-worthy PG like John Wall and/or a dominant center like Derrick Favors on the other hand...

[TheBrianZoubekExperience]

I think they will both stay. Singler could have left last year if he wanted to and would go first round again this year if he wants to leave.

If Henderson keeps playing well then I think it will come down to how much he cares about getting drafted first round/maximizing his draft stock. If he continues to play well this year his stock probably won't be any higher in 2010 than 2009 unless he really improve next year simply because he'll be a year older and the 2010 draft is expected to be much stronger than the 2009 draft (which looks very weak IMO).

Also:

ESPN (Chad Ford) still has Henderson ranked low at 40 in the top prospects and out of the lottery.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/rank?draftyear=2009

Chad Ford also said this yesterday 1/20:

Scott M., Madison WI: Gerald Henderson - rising in the draft with his recent play?

SportsNation Chad Ford: Maybe. He was VERY good against Georgetown. Probably his best game of the year against a ton of scouts. But NBA scouts tend to look at all of the evidence when judging picks and Henderson's total resume is lacking. However, if he plays like he did this weekend through the rest of the year, he'll move back into the first round.


NBdraft.net has Henderson at 11 in 2009 right now. http://www.nbadraft.net/2009mock_draft

[geraldsneighbor]

The Livingston and Deng incidents have really scared me. So I just thought I would pose the question.

[geraldsneighbor]

I think they will both stay. Singler could have left last year if he wanted to and would go first round again this year if he wants to leave.

If Henderson keeps playing well then I think it will come down to how much he cares about getting drafted first round/maximizing his draft stock. If he continues to play well this year his stock probably won't be any higher in 2010 than 2009 unless he really improve next year simply because he'll be a year older and the 2010 draft is expected to be much stronger than the 2009 draft (which looks very weak IMO).

Also:

ESPN (Chad Ford) still has Henderson ranked low at 40 in the top prospects and out of the lottery.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/rank?draftyear=2009

Chad Ford also said this yesterday 1/20:

Scott M., Madison WI: Gerald Henderson - rising in the draft with his recent play?

SportsNation Chad Ford: Maybe. He was VERY good against Georgetown. Probably his best game of the year against a ton of scouts. But NBA scouts tend to look at all of the evidence when judging picks and Henderson's total resume is lacking. However, if he plays like he did this weekend through the rest of the year, he'll move back into the first round.


NBdraft.net has Henderson at 11 in 2009 right now. http://www.nbadraft.net/2009mock_draft


Do we know who makes NBAdraftnet? Who is their sources? They had Hansbrough's name in every since he got to UNC.

John Wall is the '10 #1 pick on their haha.

[Edouble]

I can't see Henderson going this year. He has the game of Vince Carter in Steve Francis' body. He's really undersized for his position in the NBA. He's a great college player, but right now, he's does not have the look of an NBA shooting guard.

If his height really is 6'4", then he really should stay another year to develop more guard type skills that he will need for a long career at the next level. Dahntay went #19 IIRC with ~2" extra height on him. Hendo's got more of the midrange game, but less of the defensive abilities IMO. I don't see Henderson making out of the very late first round, even if he continues at this pace. He's a great college player, but his size necessitates a better skills package at the next level. The dunks that made the top 10 on Sportscenter last night were uncontested--no one on NC State came over to help. In the league, Amare or Big Ben will be waiting in the lane for him.

Of course, I didn't see the first half of the Georgetown game, or any of the NC State game due to VA Raycom. I've seen every other televised game in his career though.

I also think it's silly to talk about this now, but after reading the thread, I had to add my 2 cents. I would prefer it though, if the thread had not been started in the first place. :rolleyes:

[devildownunder]

If we make the FF, they're both gone after this year. They'd both be first round picks and at least 1 of them would probably be a lottery pick.

that's just the way the game is played these days. Guys have all kinds of intentions but the business of their careers gets in the way.


"I'm a four-year player"

-- Mike Dunleavy, circa 2002

[RelativeWays]

Neither one of them look like definite 1st rounders that will have an immediate impact on any NBA team.....right now. G doesn't need the money so I think its best for him to wait a year. Granted if he has a phenomenal rest of the year I can see him go but not right yet.

Kyle would do best to wait. He seems to have the ability to make a team his own and would probably be more assertive over the next two. He needs a bit more size and a more consistent mid range

Both have NBA ability, but neither have a fully developed NBA ready skill set just yet. If they go this year, they will be riding the pine.

[JasonEvans]

Neither one of them look like definite 1st rounders that will have an immediate impact on any NBA team.....right now. G doesn't need the money so I think its best for him to wait a year. Granted if he has a phenomenal rest of the year I can see him go but not right yet.

Kyle would do best to wait. He seems to have the ability to make a team his own and would probably be more assertive over the next two. He needs a bit more size and a more consistent mid range

Both have NBA ability, but neither have a fully developed NBA ready skill set just yet. If they go this year, they will be riding the pine.

You are entitled to your opinion, but you really should know that most NBA scouts feel differently about Gerald and Kyle's NBA future.

--Jason "and I do know what I am talking about here" Evans

[devildownunder]

You are entitled to your opinion, but you really should know that most NBA scouts feel differently about Gerald and Kyle's NBA future.

--Jason "and I do know what I am talking about here" Evans


If Ways is talking about what they'd be doing as rookies, I think he probably is right. If they both enter the 2009 draft, I don't they'd be ready to make big contributions right away. As 2nd year players and onward, it would probably be a different story.

[OldSchool]

"I'm a four-year player"

-- Mike Dunleavy, circa 2002

He was just being eerily prescient. He was a four-year player for Golden State before being traded. We'll see if Indiana keeps him for four years and then trades him.

As for G, I think he will be more than a role player in the Association. He needs to refine his handle and consistently develop his jump shot further out, both of which he seems quite capable of doing. He could either develop himself further with another year at Duke, or do so as a bench player in the NBA while collecting a paycheck.

[RelativeWays]

You are entitled to your opinion, but you really should know that most NBA scouts feel differently about Gerald and Kyle's NBA future.

--Jason "and I do know what I am talking about here" Evans

I'm not saying they won't be good NBA players, I just think they hurt their chances coming out this year, Kyle more so than G. I think Kyle has a shot to really dominate in college and thus become a better NBA commodity. Unless he goes nuts this year, I think he's underselling his potential.

[JasonEvans]

I'm not saying they won't be good NBA players, I just think they hurt their chances coming out this year, Kyle more so than G. I think Kyle has a shot to really dominate in college and thus become a better NBA commodity. Unless he goes nuts this year, I think he's underselling his potential.

Ahhh, I misread you. I agree that another year would help Kyle (especially) to be a more complete NBA player and have a quicker impact on the league.

--Jason "I am of the belief that this conversation is a bit silly, as we should be enjoying the current season instead of speculating about the off-season" Evans

[TheBrianZoubekExperience]

Do we know who makes NBAdraftnet? Who is their sources? They had Hansbrough's name in every since he got to UNC.

John Wall is the '10 #1 pick on their haha.

I don't think we ever really know who any of the real sources are. I know nbadraft.net is run by a guy named Aran Smith and is pretty much the oldest draft site (I'm not saying its more accurate but simply that its been around awhile). Draftexpress is run by Jonathan Givony who used to write for draftcity.com I think and got fired for saying something about an agent I beleive though I'm sure of the whole story. I think these guys basically are going to different events and talking to scouts though I really have no idea what kind of actual sources they have.

Chad Ford probably knows or at least talks to the most GMs though I don't know if that makes him more or less accurate since he's mentioned before that he has to sort through a lot of misinformation given ot him for the purpose of manipulating draft rankings (i.e. guys talking up someone they dont want, downplaying guys they do). From what I've seen they all seem to have widely divergent opinions now but converge closer to the draft though sometimes they are just dead wrong. ( I recall Chad Ford's final 2003 mock draft had the Heat taking Lampe who ended up getting picked in the second round which was still way too high. Had Chad Ford been right about that, then Lampe would have been about as big or bigger a bust as Darko).

[DukeDevilDeb]

Mike said over and over and over at the end of the National Championship run in 2001 that he was a 4 year man and was going to stay and graduate.

But if someone tells you that you can be #3 in the draft and have all the great things that accompany that, how do you say no?

The bad news (for fans) was that Mike left; the good news was that he WAS the #3 pick; the best news was that he came back and graduated!!!! Still hoping that a few others who have left early will do that! :D

Gerald is going to do what he's going to do regardless of any opinions we post here. However, those of you who are absolutely certain that he will be back are naive.

Go Devils!

[geraldsneighbor]

Mike said over and over and over at the end of the National Championship run in 2001 that he was a 4 year man and was going to stay and graduate.

But if someone tells you that you can be #3 in the draft and have all the great things that accompany that, how do you say no?

The bad news (for fans) was that Mike left; the good news was that he WAS the #3 pick; the best news was that he came back and graduated!!!! Still hoping that a few others who have left early will do that! :D

Gerald is going to do what he's going to do regardless of any opinions we post here. However, those of you who are absolutely certain that he will be back are naive.

Go Devils!

Pretty well said. Kevin Love has alot of credits left to get his diploma.

[Edouble]

Pretty well said. Kevin Love has alot of credits left to get his diploma.

So does Elton,

and Will,

and Corey,

and Luol.

[miramar]

Hi,

I think it did matter with Dunleavy and he only left when his dad practically confirmed he would be a top 5 pick. IMO, it's hard to argue a top 5 pick should stay and very few players have the connections (confirmations) Dunleavy Sr. had at draft time.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

I know that was the reasoning, but you would have expected Dunleavy to be a top five pick the next year, and it's not like they needed the extra money. Mike Jr. has already made $30 million per basketball-reference.com and will end up making at least twice that, but his senior year at Duke would have been priceless, IMHO.

Besides, if draft position were that important, Mike Sr. would not have made it big as a sixth round pick, back when the sixth round still existed.

[ice-9]

G doesn't need the money so I think its best for him to wait a year.


He seems to have the ability to make a team his own and would probably be more assertive over the next two. He needs a bit more size and a more consistent mid range

Two oft-cited reasons as to why a player might forgo the draft are...
1) Family has money and
2) Return for the chance to dominate

I think the significance of these two reasons are exaggerated. Just think about it from our point of view. For some of us, we come from a family with some wealth but we're still out there in the job market, busting our butt trying to earn money for *ourselves*. I suspect guys like Dunleavy and Henderson might feel the same. Having a security blanket to fall back on is nice, but they do want to maximize their own careers and wealth potential independent of what their parents earned.

As to the second reason, I think when a player plays a significant role in getting a team to post-season success, i.e. the Final Four, most of the time it's enough. You've already dominated. You've probably accomplished most of things on your college check list. If anything, making an impact in the NBA -- the next level -- will seem more alluring than getting your Final Four team to one or two extra wins next season. Of course you have your exceptions (Hansbrough, Jwill), but I see the majority choosing the challenge the NBA presents versus repeating what's already been accomplished.

[geraldsneighbor]

So does Elton,

and Will,

and Corey,

and Luol.

Wouldn't hold my breath being that Elton and Corey signed some big deals in the offseason.

[vb5678]

I know that was the reasoning, but you would have expected Dunleavy to be a top five pick the next year, and it's not like they needed the extra money. Mike Jr. has already made $30 million per basketball-reference.com and will end up making at least twice that, but his senior year at Duke would have been priceless, IMHO.

Besides, if draft position were that important, Mike Sr. would not have made it big as a sixth round pick, back when the sixth round still existed.

I disagree, I think it would have been very unlikely for Dunleavy to be picked in the top five the next year. The 2003 draft was one of the strongest EVER, with Lebron, Wade, Carmelo, and Bosh all in the top 5. I know Mike is a solid player in the NBA, but I don't know if he could have emerged from draft camp with better buzz than any of those guys. Plus, he didn't have the international mystique that helped guys like Yao Ming, Darko, and Barginani go so high.

This really just illustrates how fickle the draft process can be, and how "strong" and "weak" drafts can really influence where a player goes and what type of situation he ends up in. Given this uncertainty, I really can't blame anybody who's promised a top 10 pick for jumping in.

[miramar]

I disagree, I think it would have been very unlikely for Dunleavy to be picked in the top five the next year. The 2003 draft was one of the strongest EVER, with Lebron, Wade, Carmelo, and Bosh all in the top 5. I know Mike is a solid player in the NBA, but I don't know if he could have emerged from draft camp with better buzz than any of those guys. Plus, he didn't have the international mystique that helped guys like Yao Ming, Darko, and Barginani go so high.

This really just illustrates how fickle the draft process can be, and how "strong" and "weak" drafts can really influence where a player goes and what type of situation he ends up in. Given this uncertainty, I really can't blame anybody who's promised a top 10 pick for jumping in.

I definitely stand corrected on Mike Jr. being in the top five the following year, but the big money would have still been there if he had been in the top ten.

Of course, I have never been in that position and the top 5 vs. top 10 might make a tremendous personal difference for someone who has chosen that line of work. I'm not sure how you're supposed to spend all that money anyway, but Mike Tyson found a way to blow ten times as much as Mike Jr. has ever made, so it is possible.

My current Dukie is a Crazie rather than a player, but I know if I had been in Dunleavy Sr's position (and with the same amount of money in the bank) I would have told my kid to have an unforgettable senior season on and off the court, but that's just me.

[I_am_a_Blue_Devil]

My stance on this issue has changed somewhat over the years of thinking about players leaving early. I used to think, "man this sucks, it isnt right, they should have to stay........yatta yatta......"

But when i really sat down and thought about it it went more like this. "If i were in college, and studying to be a lawyer, and was extremely gifted at what i was doing, and some top law firm said, Leave school now and make millions with us, how could i turn that down?"

I hate to see players leave, for my own agenda, but when it comes down to it, its their decision to do whats best for them, and I cant be mad about that.

[Jeffrey]

I definitely stand corrected on Mike Jr. being in the top five the following year, but the big money would have still been there if he had been in the top ten.

Hi,

Being a Top 10 pick the next year was not even certain. As previously mentioned, the talent level difference in the two draft years was extreme. IMO, an equally important reason to be a Top 5 pick (when it's all but certain) is the potential to be injured (on or off the court) the following season if you return to school. We've had the horrible fortune of witnessing two potentially great NBA PG's have their NBA careers end before they barely began. Nothing is certain in this life and, IMO, Mike Jr. was very prudent to declare when he all but knew he would be a Top 5 pick.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

[quickgtp]

I am really uncertain as to whether he will stay or leave, but I will say that is does choose to go his stock right now would be (to quote Meet the Parents) "strong to quite strong."

[cato]

My current Dukie is a Crazie rather than a player, but I know if I had been in Dunleavy Sr's position (and with the same amount of money in the bank) I would have told my kid to have an unforgettable senior season on and off the court, but that's just me.

Really? Have you ever run the numbers? If you get a chance to go early and earn such a large salary, you really can't make up that extra year of earning on the back end. It is a huge financial difference. The only way it wouldn't pay off is if you crash and burn, and never get to your second contract (but would have if you had stayed in school one more year).

Sr.'s money is not Jr.'s money, and I think that people are overly romantic about that extra year of college. Is anyone claiming that Bill Gates should have finished college instead of going out into the business world?

[rsvman]

... If anything, making an impact in the NBA -- the next level -- will seem more alluring than getting your Final Four team to one or two extra wins next season...

Not to mention that even if you come back, and the team is stronger on paper than the previous year's team, there is NO GUARANTEE that you will succeed in the post-season. The one-and-done nature of the tournament makes sure of that.

[gvtucker]

My current Dukie is a Crazie rather than a player, but I know if I had been in Dunleavy Sr's position (and with the same amount of money in the bank) I would have told my kid to have an unforgettable senior season on and off the court, but that's just me.
I would have told my kid to make the decision that he thinks is best for him, comfortable in the knowledge that he was looking at two excellent options.

[Matches]

Sr.'s money is not Jr.'s money, and I think that people are overly romantic about that extra year of college. Is anyone claiming that Bill Gates should have finished college instead of going out into the business world?

And is there any reason the kid can't go back to school somewhere down the road if the NBA doesn't work out, only now armed with millions of dollars to live on while he attends school?

It really is an easy decision if someone is sure to be a high pick. The notion that that extra year of college is "priceless"? - to who? - not to the player - it clearly has a HUGE cost to them.

[roywhite]

And is there any reason the kid can't go back to school somewhere down the road if the NBA doesn't work out, only now armed with millions of dollars to live on while he attends school?

It really is an easy decision if someone is sure to be a high pick. The notion that that extra year of college is "priceless"? - to who? - not to the player - it clearly has a HUGE cost to them.

Did Tim Duncan, Shane Battier, and Tyler Hansbrough make poor decisions by finishing their college careers? Did they incur a HUGE cost by delaying their economic benefits?

If a player and family think things through, and make decisions according to their own values and priorities, I don't have a problem as to their choice.

[Matches]

Did Tim Duncan, Shane Battier, and Tyler Hansbrough make poor decisions by finishing their college careers? Did they incur a HUGE cost by delaying their economic benefits?



Those are two different questions. It's likely all three of them cost themselves millions of dollars, becuase all of them shortened their NBA careers by a year. Battier maybe not so much, because he improved his stock significantly by playing his senior season.

That's not the same thing as making a poor decision. Any or all of them may feel like the cost was worth it. I'm not in their heads and thus do not know. Even if they feel it was worth it, it's silly to say they didn't pay a price.

I feel pretty comfortable, though, in saying Terrence Morris made a huge mistake. And frankly, more and more when I see players who have pretty obviously maxed themselves out at the college level come back, it makes me question their maturity. Hansbrough's what... 25 years old? Yeah it'd be fun to hang around a college campus an extra year, but at some point it's time to move on.

[gvtucker]

Did Tim Duncan, Shane Battier, and Tyler Hansbrough make poor decisions by finishing their college careers? Did they incur a HUGE cost by delaying their economic benefits?

If a player and family think things through, and make decisions according to their own values and priorities, I don't have a problem as to their choice.

The only one of those three that gave up the opportunity to be a lottery pick to return for his senior year was Tim Duncan.

I do agree with the general premise of your post, though. I dislike the thought that these guys are making "right" or "wrong" decisions. Did Will Avery make a wrong decision? What about if that was his only chance at being a lottery pick? It gave him a shot he might otherwise not have had. These guys are making what they see as the best decision for themselves. And most probably, they're better judges than we are as to what is best.

[Jeffrey]

Did Will Avery make a wrong decision? What about if that was his only chance at being a lottery pick?

Hi,

IIRC, the Duke coaching staff felt he was making a poor decision and was projected significantly higher the following draft. Even now, Will may not know whether, or not, he made a prudent decision.

I think Mike Jr. and Gerald Jr. are very fortunate to have their Dad's insight into this matter. Knowledge and connections are very valuable.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

[cato]

Did Tim Duncan, Shane Battier, and Tyler Hansbrough make poor decisions by finishing their college careers? Did they incur a HUGE cost by delaying their economic benefits?

If a player and family think things through, and make decisions according to their own values and priorities, I don't have a problem as to their choice.

I agree with you. My argument is with people who say that players should invariably return to school, since one more year of college outweighs any amount of money. My point is that the financial difference can be substantial, and I can understand why someone would leave early for the NBA in order to significanly increase his lifetime earnings.

[gvtucker]

Hi,

IIRC, the Duke coaching staff felt he was making a poor decision and was projected significantly higher the following draft. Even now, Will may not know whether, or not, he made a prudent decision.

I think Mike Jr. and Gerald Jr. are very fortunate to have their Dad's insight into this matter. Knowledge and connections are very valuable.

While I don't disagree in these particular instances, a Dad is usually not the most objective person to assess his child's talent. For Dunleavy and Henderson, I think the best advice their fathers could give is as to which people were giving the best objective advice and which were full of it.

[Jeffrey]

While I don't disagree in these particular instances, a Dad is usually not the most objective person to assess his child's talent.

Hi,

Are you joking? We all know that Ken Burgess was spot on in his assessment of Chris.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

[pratt07]

This may already be known by the members of the board, but for what it's worth, a Michael Joseph Dunleavy Jr. was listed among the graduating class of '06 - I don't know how he managed it, but I can only assume that he did, in fact, graduate.

[bill brill]

mike dunleavy had every intention of staying in school, until dad found out he'd go third in the draft and told him that he'd leave $15M on the table he'd never get back. a year later, mike (he graduated after two summer schools) said it was the right decision. he never would have been drafted that high the next year. if henderson goes this year, it will be in a weak draft. no durants, odens, mayos, beasleys, et al, around. my thought is that's likely to be the case next year, too. blake griffin almost certain no. 1 in '09. no certain superstar on immediate horizon. so the best guess is that quite a few underclassmen, not supers but good players, will leave this year because it looks beneficial. a couple of them play 8 miles down the road. bb

[geraldsneighbor]

While I don't disagree in these particular instances, a Dad is usually not the most objective person to assess his child's talent. For Dunleavy and Henderson, I think the best advice their fathers could give is as to which people were giving the best objective advice and which were full of it.

Cough Danny Green's dad Cough

[geraldsneighbor]

Look if G is a top 10 pick, it is hard to say no. The next draft in 2010 doesn't look a whole lot stronger however. If G is a late-lotto-mid first round pick, I think he should come back. There is only so much that can be read into mock drafts, I mean just ask Josh McRoberts. Some had him as high as 6-12 in the draft and he went like 37th? So, while G needs to do what is right for him, I have complete confidence G will evaluate everything before making a irrational decision, similar to what Josh made.IMO

[gvtucker]

Look if G is a top 10 pick, it is hard to say no. The next draft in 2010 doesn't look a whole lot stronger however. If G is a late-lotto-mid first round pick, I think he should come back. There is only so much that can be read into mock drafts, I mean just ask Josh McRoberts. Some had him as high as 6-12 in the draft and he went like 37th? So, while G needs to do what is right for him, I have complete confidence G will evaluate everything before making a irrational decision, similar to what Josh made.IMO

Actually, McRoberts is a perfect example of why Henderson might go this year. At the end of McRoberts' freshman year, he was targeted as a late lottery pick. His stock dropped steadily the next year, and nobody had him that high at the end of his sophomore year when he decided to leave. He was drafted pretty much right where he was told he would be drafted.

[yancem]

Sr.'s money is not Jr.'s money, and I think that people are overly romantic about that extra year of college. Is anyone claiming that Bill Gates should have finished college instead of going out into the business world?

It depends on what is important to you. Bill Gates probably would still be an extremely wealthy man had he stayed in school. The average person has about 40 years to go to work and earn a paycheck but only 4 years (well a few more if you can stretch it out) to be a college kid. Granted, professional athletes have a shorter career (at least the playing part) so that has to be factored into the equation but when you are 70 years old and you have your grandchild sitting in your lap, what stories do you want to tell, what wisdom will you pass on? I'm not saying that there is anything wrong with jumping early to the pros, I just think that those that think that you're a fool stay or a fool to go probably have never face that kind of decision. There are many more things that need to be factored in besides money.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Gerald would have good reason to bolt early for the draft, he's a stud. I am just afraid that if he does, our backcourt will be a little thin next year. Nolan, Scheyer, and Williams, but who else? We would need to sign somebody in the late signing period to shore that up, if nothing comes of the John Wall experiment.

[geraldsneighbor]

If we win the whole shebang this year, everyone can leave. I just want this group to achieve something special that they are completely capable of before leaving.(like a Final Four) Games like Saturday make you realize how special this cast of guys really can be. You got 2 absolute studs in G and Kyle with guys like Nolan, Jon, Zoub, and Greg that can all contribute in big spots. Sure it is early in the season still, but you gotta feel good (I'm not speaking of rankings) where you are at this point with still areas to improve.

[RelativeWays]

Actually, McRoberts is a perfect example of why Henderson might go this year. At the end of McRoberts' freshman year, he was targeted as a late lottery pick. His stock dropped steadily the next year, and nobody had him that high at the end of his sophomore year when he decided to leave. He was drafted pretty much right where he was told he would be drafted.

Part of McRoberts draft stock decline is that the 2007 season exposed him as less than advertised. A reluctance to be the go to man is not an endearing trait for an NBA player and I think it said a lot about his heart and effort. Hendo's play has gotten better every year, and he sure as heck wants the ball. Barring injury, a return next season puts an even bigger spotlight on G (especially with Hansbrough gone) he could be the ACC marquee player.

My biggest issue with the draft, especially now is, unless you are an immediate impact player or a guaranteed lottery player, you really need to come out when your skills are ready and you truly have showcased you best ability in college, especially if you want a long NBA career. If you just want the highest paycheck, come out when you can be drafted the highest, but it doesn't mean you'll play much...or at all.

[cato]

It depends on what is important to you. Bill Gates probably would still be an extremely wealthy man had he stayed in school. The average person has about 40 years to go to work and earn a paycheck but only 4 years (well a few more if you can stretch it out) to be a college kid. Granted, professional athletes have a shorter career (at least the playing part) so that has to be factored into the equation but when you are 70 years old and you have your grandchild sitting in your lap, what stories do you want to tell, what wisdom will you pass on? I'm not saying that there is anything wrong with jumping early to the pros, I just think that those that think that you're a fool stay or a fool to go probably have never face that kind of decision. There are many more things that need to be factored in besides money.

Right. It is an individual decision that should be made by the person who will reap the rewards/suffer the consequences. However, I am surprised by how often people will opine on the matter without taking a hard look at the numbers. You point to the important point: professional athletes have a short (and very unpredictable) career. With those variables, big time guaranteed money makes a huge difference.

[geraldsneighbor]

Right. It is an individual decision that should be made by the person who will reap the rewards/suffer the consequences. However, I am surprised by how often people will opine on the matter without taking a hard look at the numbers. You point to the important point: professional athletes have a short (and very unpredictable) career. With those variables, big time guaranteed money makes a huge difference.

Basketball also has a longer shelf life then say a football player who needs to strike when the iron is hot. In basketball you can ask Josh, but even if you got first round you get a 3 yr deal and a signing bonus. I mean you won't be in the poor house but you want to make sure your coming out at the right time. I really wish the NCAA would adapt baseball's rule of 3 years in college or no years. Granted, it wouldn't lock up G ad Josh may have never came but Kyle would have another year. It really is sort of a headache to think about.

[Jumbo]

Call me naive ...

You're naive! ;) ;) ;)

[jv001]

If we win the whole shebang this year, everyone can leave. I just want this group to achieve something special that they are completely capable of before leaving.(like a Final Four) Games like Saturday make you realize how special this cast of guys really can be. You got 2 absolute studs in G and Kyle with guys like Nolan, Jon, Zoub, and Greg that can all contribute in big spots. Sure it is early in the season still, but you gotta feel good (I'm not speaking of rankings) where you are at this point with still areas to improve.

I couldn't have said it any better. This team has been fun to watch. We do have 3 special players with a supporting cast that any game could be MOTM. They realize that by playing great defense they should win most games and so far they have played that kind of defense. And yet they still have room to improve, especially on offense. So Beat Wake and Go Duke!

[MChambers]

But if someone tells you that you can be #3 in the draft and have all the great things that accompany that, how do you say no?
Yes, look how well that worked for Dunleavy. He endured 4 years of fan and coach abuse in the Bay Area before finally ending up with a franchise where he fit.

Going high in the draft can be a curse as well as a blessing.

Having said that, I understand completely that players may choose to leave early (in part to burn off that ridiculous rookie salary cap), and I'll respect our players no matter what they choose to do.

[Deschet]

Gerald is absolutely lighting it up, averaging 20+ points a game since Florida State. It's awesome to see him transform into the player I and and many of you have always known he would be. The question I ask is this: How high can his game go? I don't know. I know I'd love for him to be in a Duke uniform next year to find out, but... we still have THIS year! Let's focus on this year and watch as Gerald becomes a star on this very talented Duke team.

[DukeDevilDeb]

So does Elton,

and Will,

and Corey,

and Luol.

Sadly, and Carlos... he's the one I would most like to have finish because he really is close... Luol would have three years, Elton et al. (the 1999 deserters) would have two (except for Avery who might have 5 for all the times he attended class!).

[DukeDevilDeb]

Hi,

IIRC, the Duke coaching staff felt he was making a poor decision and was projected significantly higher the following draft. Even now, Will may not know whether, or not, he made a prudent decision.

I think Mike Jr. and Gerald Jr. are very fortunate to have their Dad's insight into this matter. Knowledge and connections are very valuable.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

Will Avery has said repeatedly that the biggest mistake he ever made was leaving Duke when he did. Yes, he was a high pick; yes, he went to the NBA; yes, he rode the pine... and where is Mr. Avery now? Last I heard, he was playing in Israel.

Frankly, he COULDN'T come back to Duke probably, not even if he wanted to. His academic performance (so to speak) was so poor that he couldn't get in.

And I think it would be very hard for someone like Elton or even Luol to come back a decade after graduation. You think Hanstravel is too old at 25? What about Elton who is 30?

[DukeDevilDeb]

This may already be known by the members of the board, but for what it's worth, a Michael Joseph Dunleavy Jr. was listed among the graduating class of '06 - I don't know how he managed it, but I can only assume that he did, in fact, graduate.

As I've said here several times (even earlier in this thread! :D), Mike did come back and graduate. He was relatively close when he left, so he could come for summer session and do it quickly. Remember that he left in 2002, so it took 4 years for him to finish (and that wasn't with him here every summer).

Frankly, I think that took guts. Many guys wouldn't bother, but Mike really is a class act.

[geraldsneighbor]

As I've said here several times (even earlier in this thread! :D), Mike did come back and graduate. He was relatively close when he left, so he could come for summer session and do it quickly. Remember that he left in 2002, so it took 4 years for him to finish (and that wasn't with him here every summer).

Frankly, I think that took guts. Many guys wouldn't bother, but Mike really is a class act.

J-Will did as well because I think he was ahead of his credits so he graduated early in some sort. I'm not sure if that was mentioned earlier, but I just wanted to point that out.

I think G would be relitavley close as well. I can't imagine McBob doesn't regret leaving...Actually, he probably regrets coming in the first place. I mean I know life in the NBA doesn't suck, but at least for me I can't imagine leaving Duke early. I know J-Will went 2nd overall but with some of the things he has said recently with how special the passion is in college, I know he would've wanted to play his 4th season.

[WojoSay?]

I'm just going to enjoy his junior year..

[Matches]

Will Avery has said repeatedly that the biggest mistake he ever made was leaving Duke when he did. Yes, he was a high pick; yes, he went to the NBA; yes, he rode the pine... and where is Mr. Avery now? Last I heard, he was playing in Israel.

Frankly, he COULDN'T come back to Duke probably, not even if he wanted to. His academic performance (so to speak) was so poor that he couldn't get in.



If that's the case how was he still eligible while he was in school?

Leaving aside the possibility that some players may just stop going to class altogether during that last semester, it'd be a pretty big black eye for the university to now refuse admission to one of its former players. Kind of puts the lie to the notion that the kid met the school's academic standards in the first place. I'd be VERY surprised if any former players were refused re-admission if they sought it.

[greybeard]

It depends on what is important to you. Bill Gates probably would still be an extremely wealthy man had he stayed in school. The average person has about 40 years to go to work and earn a paycheck but only 4 years (well a few more if you can stretch it out) to be a college kid. Granted, professional athletes have a shorter career (at least the playing part) so that has to be factored into the equation but when you are 70 years old and you have your grandchild sitting in your lap, what stories do you want to tell, what wisdom will you pass on? I'm not saying that there is anything wrong with jumping early to the pros, I just think that those that think that you're a fool stay or a fool to go probably have never face that kind of decision. There are many more things that need to be factored in besides money.

Really good stuff here. I have run into Dunlevy a few times, once at the semi-final LAX game two years ago. He seemed to adore being part of the crowd of young Dukies in the stadium. No premium seats for him. Nope, he sat in the corner of the stadium reserved for it looked like Duke students (the alums seemed to be all over).

There is something about college that money cannot replace. However, G has a gift whose shelf-life no one can predict. Tough decision. I wish I could say that I'm glad it is him, and not me. Heck, I'd give a year of my life if I could throw it down even once, not even approaching the heights he routinely achieves. What am I talking about, I'm sure that already did.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think a lot of people are forgetting this point - G is a junior. If he goes to the NBA, and considering all the summer classes he has probably taken, he would be only a few credits short. Also, just because you don't get your diploma doesn't mean that you aren't part of the Duke family. I feel that if you have bleed Blue and White for 3 years, then you are definitely part of the family (which is I am a little hesitant to call McRoberts part of the family as he really didn't show that he wanted to be here).

Also, G has given us 2 and a half good (and great if you count the last two halves) seasons. He is such a hard worker who has always been supportive of his teammates, his coach and his classmates. That is pure class (plus, if you have watched any of the DukeBluePlanet videos, G always cracks me up). I will support G in whatever choice he makes after this season. And you should all feel that the choice he makes is probably the best one.

[obsesseddukefan]

Well, add me to the list of people who do not want to see "G" leave for the NBA...but this worries me. I know it is a LONG way aways but am I over reacting?? :)

http://www.nbadraft.net/

[KenTankerous]

I've had this conversation in the Duke group on facebook and my local social network and I don't think G is going anywhere. Why would he? He loves Duke, his family is financially secure, and seeing what has happened to JJ and DeMarcus, do you really think he will take a bench seat in Sacramento over a staring role in a run to a National Championship and possible player of the year?

No, relax Blue Devil nation, Gerald will be back.

[allenmurray]

I hate mock draft sites. However, I do like that they have him going higher than Hansbrough or Lawson. :D I would put absolutely no stock in this. I doubt the owner of the web site had a conversation with either G or his father or Coach K - they probably know nothing about Henderson's real intentions.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Well, for one, those are addressing the junior rankings. You don't see his name on the left in the top 10. That being said, I will be surprised if G doesn't "test the waters". It will mean lots of trepidation for a bunch of fans, but it makes no sense not to. He losed nothing by enjoying that opportunity, just like the 3 heels did last year. The problem with those guys, is not all of them were juniors. They indicated they wanted to go, and I'm not sure any of them helped their chances any more with their play this year other than Lawson. But since he is the only junior this year, it makes little difference, they are gone anyways. Same for G. He only has one more year regardless. Might as well go see where he stands and what he needs to improve on.

ooops, my bad, he is 7 on the lottery.

[bjornolf]

Um, Kentankerous, we HAVE said that before and been wrong.

My question is about Ty Lawson. Does his return depend on whether Carolina can win the big one? Will his minor toe injury be enough to scare him into "taking the money"? I'd love to know what's going on in his mind right now.

Um, and isn't he number 7 on that list right now, CB&B?

[quickgtp]

Though we HAVE said that and been wrong.

My question is about Ty Lawson. Does his return depend on whether Carolina can win the big one? Will his minor toe injury be enough to scare him into "taking the money"? I'd love to know what's going on in his mind right now.

Lawson is gone, IMO. I don't see his stock getting any higher, and being that he is injury prone, I would take the money now!

[CameronBornAndBred]

Um, and isn't he number 7 on that list right now, CB&B?
Yes, I can't read today. My writing skills have been lacking, too.
I think Ty is gone this year, so does Roy. He said so at the beginning of the season.

[jv001]

Will not ever be any higher than right now. ACC POY, probably 2nd team AA and a chance to win NC this year. Next year he will not have hanstravelflop. So he's nuts if he doesn't go to the NBA. Go Duke!

[Rich]

I've had this conversation in the Duke group on facebook and my local social network and I don't think G is going anywhere. Why would he? He loves Duke, his family is financially secure, and seeing what has happened to JJ and DeMarcus, do you really think he will take a bench seat in Sacramento over a staring role in a run to a National Championship and possible player of the year?

No, relax Blue Devil nation, Gerald will be back.

I want to see G back as much as anyone, but I'm now a realist after seeing this sort of thing several times over the years. Regarding your point, though, I don't think any player with confidence leaves thinking they're going to ride the pine. Generally, I don't think you can perform at the level these athletes do unless you think you're going to play in the League. I will admit (hope), though, that the financially secure aspect of the situation works in our favor.

[blazindw]

Never rely on NBADraft.net's mock draft until about 3-4 days before the actual draft. They are wholly unreliable up to that point.

[CDu]

Though we HAVE said that and been wrong.

My question is about Ty Lawson. Does his return depend on whether Carolina can win the big one? Will his minor toe injury be enough to scare him into "taking the money"? I'd love to know what's going on in his mind right now.

Um, and isn't he number 7 on that list right now, CB&B?

If I had to guess, Lawson is going to go. He had three questions to address coming into the year: shooting consistency, size, and defense. He can't change his size, and the NBA will work around defense, so shooting was the one to address. He's shown an ability to shoot the three consistently this year. Further, next year's team is going to take a step back. They lose Hansbrough, Green, and Frasor for certain, and possibly Ellington as well. I don't think that UNC will be more likely than this year to win a national title.

[yancem]

I've had this conversation in the Duke group on facebook and my local social network and I don't think G is going anywhere. Why would he? He loves Duke, his family is financially secure, and seeing what has happened to JJ and DeMarcus, do you really think he will take a bench seat in Sacramento over a staring role in a run to a National Championship and possible player of the year?

No, relax Blue Devil nation, Gerald will be back.

Everyone thought the same thing about Dunleavey. I generally think that there is a good chance that Henderson comes back for his senior year but if his draft stock continues to rise, you never know.

[BlueintheFace]

I got nothing but my gut and my gut tells me G and Jon return to finish what they set out to do (not that Jon was ever going to leave early). Money is not an issue, G has a shot to be NPOY or at least ACC POY next year, and he is a very loyal friend and Dukie by all accounts. He wants to be with Jon and K and his teammates I believe. Kyle will return as well and the big three will have one more shot at it.

(all of this depends on what happens this March of course)

God, I hope I am right.

[bjornolf]

Everyone thought the same thing about Dunleavey. I generally think that there is a good chance that Henderson comes back for his senior year but if his draft stock continues to rise, you never know.


I don't remember what the roster looked like right after Dunleavy left. G has the chance to be the difference between a top 5 ACC team with a shot at another sweet 16 and a serious national champion contender. Would Dunleavy's return have made that much difference? Would he have had a legit shot at being the shining centerpiece of a potential juggernaut? If I remember correctly, there was a lot of talent on the 2002-2003 team, but it was very young talent, wasn't it? JJ, Shav, Shel, Doc, and Lee were all freshman. Only Duhon and Jones were upperclassmen of the stars on the team, right? Saunders and Horvath weren't exactly dominant, IIRC. I'm not sure, I'm asking here.

If G returns, he'll be surrounded by a core of Scheyer, Singler, Smith, Thomas, and Williams. Hopefully, Plumlee and Czyz will be further developing and become legitimate options. Plus, I'm sure Z will be working like a demon on his game this off-season. And that's not EVEN counting the freshmen coming in. That, at least to me, looks like a MUCH stronger cast than Dunleavy was looking at returning to. JMHO, anyway.

[arnie]

Bomani Jones - our Triangle expert on everything, has repeatedly stated that G is gone - 100% sure of it.

We shall see. I guess if G doesn't leave, Mr. Jones will blame Coach K.

[jimsumner]

Let's talk about Henderson to the NBA some more because gosh-darnit, there just isn't anything else hoops related going on this time of year.

Those of you who had March 10 on the over/under for how long it would take me to go over the top on this subject can pick up your winnings at the table.

[houstondukie]

I've had this conversation in the Duke group on facebook and my local social network and I don't think G is going anywhere. Why would he? He loves Duke, his family is financially secure, and seeing what has happened to JJ and DeMarcus, do you really think he will take a bench seat in Sacramento over a staring role in a run to a National Championship and possible player of the year?

No, relax Blue Devil nation, Gerald will be back.

Good points.

[Blue in the Face]

I'd be surprised in Henderson returns. I hope to be surprised.

[houstondukie]

Everyone thought the same thing about Dunleavey. I generally think that there is a good chance that Henderson comes back for his senior year but if his draft stock continues to rise, you never know.

I agree that Dunleavy and Henderson face somewhat similar situations, but there are also some major differences too:

1. Duneleavy already had won a national championship and many acc championships. Henderson has gotten past the second round.

2. Carlos Boozer and Jason Williams, two members of Dunleavy's recruiting class, were also leaving. Everyone in Henderson's recruiting class (Scheyer, Thomas, Zoubek) is coming back for sure.

3. Dunleavy was the #3 pick. I don't see Henderson going that high.

4. Henderson really needs to work on his left hand.

[UrinalCake]

I really don't believe Dunleavy intended to go when he initially put his name in the draft. Perhaps I'm being naive, but I believed him when he said he was just doing it to feel out the process and gather information from NBA teams on what he needed to work on, which he was in a great position to do since his father was/is an NBA coach. He had nothing to lose by just declaring since he was a junior. I was totally shocked when he left.

Regarding the nbadraft.net site, if you read G's profile it appears to have not been updated since early last season.

[obsesseddukefan]

That "G" stays. I truly believe that if he returns then we have a 90% chance of winning it all next year. 10% left over for the unexpected...
I still think we have a shot at the Final Four this year as well..call me crazy. :D

[CDu]

That "G" stays. I truly believe that if he returns then we have a 90% chance of winning it all next year. 10% left over for the unexpected...
I still think we have a shot at the Final Four this year as well..call me crazy. :D

I know this is nitpicky and you're probably being sarcastic. But no NCAA team has ever had anywhere close to a 90% chance of winning it all going into the season.

[The Gordog]

I don't remember what the roster looked like right after Dunleavy left. G has the chance to be the difference between a top 5 ACC team with a shot at another sweet 16 and a serious national champion contender. Would Dunleavy's return have made that much difference? Would he have had a legit shot at being the shining centerpiece of a potential juggernaut? If I remember correctly, there was a lot of talent on the 2002-2003 team, but it was very young talent, wasn't it? JJ, Shav, Shel, Doc, and Lee were all freshman. Only Duhon and Jones were upperclassmen of the stars on the team, right? Saunders and Horvath weren't exactly dominant, IIRC. I'm not sure, I'm asking here.

And yet, we went undefeated at home, beat Carowhina 2 out of 3 including a rubber match in the ACC Tournament Semis, and won the ACC Tournament Final (over NC State.) I think the addition of MD would have made that team quite formidable.


If G returns, he'll be surrounded by a core of Scheyer, Singler, Smith, Thomas, and Williams. Hopefully, Plumlee and Czyz will be further developing and become legitimate options. Plus, I'm sure Z will be working like a demon on his game this off-season. And that's not EVEN counting the freshmen coming in. That, at least to me, looks like a MUCH stronger cast than Dunleavy was looking at returning to. JMHO, anyway.

[obsesseddukefan]

I know this is nitpicky and you're probably being sarcastic. But no NCAA team has ever had anywhere close to a 90% chance of winning it all going into the season.


Yes I was being sarcastic, but I will say that I think our chances are VERY good. :D

[blueprofessor]

Quote:
If G returns, he'll be surrounded by a core of Scheyer, Singler, Smith, Thomas, and Williams. Hopefully, Plumlee and Czyz will be further developing and become legitimate options. Plus, I'm sure Z will be working like a demon on his game this off-season. And that's not EVEN counting the freshmen coming in. That, at least to me, looks like a MUCH stronger cast than Dunleavy was looking at returning to. JMHO, anyway.

Well,let's see what Duke's returning cast did in 2002-03 and consider their upside.
*Jones was 1st team all-ACC
*Duhon was 3rd team all-ACC (he would become 1st team all-ACC and an AA in 2003-04)
*Redick was 3rd team all-ACC (he would become 2nd,1st, and 1st team ACC in subsequent years, as well as AA in 2003-04,and 1st team AA the next 2 years and ACC POY his last 2 years as well as NPOY those last 2 years,as well)
*Ewing averaged 20.7 points in the 2003 ACC tourney and was named MVP;in 2003-04,he led the ACC in 3-point shooting at 41.1% in ( he would
become 3rd team all-ACC in 2005);and in 2004-05, he led the team in assists and averaged 15 ppg.
*Williams started 23 games,shot 51.6%,and had 5.9 rpg and 8.2 ppg and 1.6 blocks per game( he would become 2nd,1st,and 1st team all-ACC and AA,AA, and 1st team AA the next 3 years,as well as NDPOY his last 2 years)
*Dockery,Randolph,Melch.,Horvath,and Sanders rounded out the team.

That was a formidable team in 2002-03 and the nucleus (less Jones and with Deng) would come within a bad no-call of winning the NC (I assume we would have beaten GaTech in the champ.game) the next year.

While I like the returning Devils for next year (w/o Hendo, to maintain the comparison you constructed), there is no comparison between the 2 groups in talent.The top five players in 2002-03 were superior in talent and their upside was incredible, there were excellent subs, the big men were very good, and Duke had a fine point guard.
With Dunleavy, a 1st team all-ACC and 2nd team AA in 2002,Duke had a player who would have been NPOY if he had returned in 2002-03, and a leader of a FF team.
BTW, who of the 2009-10 returning players would be as good as the top 5 from 2002-03,with or w/o Hendo? I think Hendo,Singler, and perhaps Scheyer would have been better that the sophomore Ewing.


Best regards--Blueprofessor:)

[roywhite]

Quote:

BTW, who of the 2009-10 returning players would be as good as the top 5 from 2002-03,with or w/o Hendo? I think Hendo,Singler, and perhaps Scheyer would have been better that the sophomore Ewing.

Best regards--Blueprofessor:)

I could see Elliot Williams becoming a better player than Ewing, and possibly better than Dahntay Jones. Will that be next year? don't know

[moonpie23]

opposing teams want to see G returning about as much as we all wanted to see lawson, greene and......that other guy coming back...


if G comes back, i think he knows how much better Duke will be...

[flyingdutchdevil]

If G comes back and learns to drive left, he will easily (if he's not already) be the most unguardable player next year. That's not the ACC, that's the NCAA.

[davekay1971]

Dear G,

Please come back.

Sincerely,
Every Sane Duke Fan

'nuff said? :D

[The Gordog]

Dear G,

Please come back.

Sincerely,
Every Sane Duke Fan

'nuff said? :D

Seconded.

Hear, hear.

Huzzah!

Ditto.

What he said.

[yancem]

Quote:
If G returns, he'll be surrounded by a core of Scheyer, Singler, Smith, Thomas, and Williams. Hopefully, Plumlee and Czyz will be further developing and become legitimate options. Plus, I'm sure Z will be working like a demon on his game this off-season. And that's not EVEN counting the freshmen coming in. That, at least to me, looks like a MUCH stronger cast than Dunleavy was looking at returning to. JMHO, anyway.

Well,let's see what Duke's returning cast did in 2002-03 and consider their upside.
*Jones was 1st team all-ACC
*Duhon was 3rd team all-ACC (he would become 1st team all-ACC and an AA in 2003-04)
*Redick was 3rd team all-ACC (he would become 2nd,1st, and 1st team ACC in subsequent years, as well as AA in 2003-04,and 1st team AA the next 2 years and ACC POY his last 2 years as well as NPOY those last 2 years,as well)
*Ewing averaged 20.7 points in the 2003 ACC tourney and was named MVP;in 2003-04,he led the ACC in 3-point shooting at 41.1% in ( he would
become 3rd team all-ACC in 2005);and in 2004-05, he led the team in assists and averaged 15 ppg.
*Williams started 23 games,shot 51.6%,and had 5.9 rpg and 8.2 ppg and 1.6 blocks per game( he would become 2nd,1st,and 1st team all-ACC and AA,AA, and 1st team AA the next 3 years,as well as NDPOY his last 2 years)
*Dockery,Randolph,Melch.,Horvath,and Sanders rounded out the team.

That was a formidable team in 2002-03 and the nucleus (less Jones and with Deng) would come within a bad no-call of winning the NC (I assume we would have beaten GaTech in the champ.game) the next year.

While I like the returning Devils for next year (w/o Hendo, to maintain the comparison you constructed), there is no comparison between the 2 groups in talent.The top five players in 2002-03 were superior in talent and their upside was incredible, there were excellent subs, the big men were very good, and Duke had a fine point guard.
With Dunleavy, a 1st team all-ACC and 2nd team AA in 2002,Duke had a player who would have been NPOY if he had returned in 2002-03, and a leader of a FF team.
BTW, who of the 2009-10 returning players would be as good as the top 5 from 2002-03,with or w/o Hendo? I think Hendo,Singler, and perhaps Scheyer would have been better that the sophomore Ewing.


Best regards--Blueprofessor:)

I disagree that the 2002-03 team was superior in talent to next year's team. Singler was second team all acc this year and is already better than Jones was a senior. Scheyer missed out on being all acc this year simply because the acc was loaded this year. Next year he should certainly be as good as Duhon was as Junior. Smith and Williams can be as good as Reddick and Ewing were in 02-03. They both have been close to on par with Ewing during stretches this year so it is just a matter of one of the two making big strides next year to match Reddick. I'm not sure that's that big of a stretch. As for Matching Williams, I pretty confident that one of Plumlee (1 or 2), Thomas, Kelly or Zoubek can match his freshman numbers. One thing that you have to keep in mind is that the presence of Dunleavy would have lessened the impact of everyone in 02-03 because he would have been the go to guy just like the absence of Henderson next year would open up opportunities for everyone next year.

Now if Henderson and Singler both leave then all bets would be off.

[geraldsneighbor]

i think G has to come back to learn to drive left. NC took him out of the game when they forced him left. Also, Singler has at least another year of development left to do. I think they both return. K said a few weeks ago G has a lot of improving to do and you know he will echo that to him after the season. That has to be a key at then end, especially since G isn't looking for the money now. He wants to stay in the league and not just get there.

[DukeDevilDeb]

I really don't believe Dunleavy intended to go when he initially put his name in the draft. Perhaps I'm being naive, but I believed him when he said he was just doing it to feel out the process and gather information from NBA teams on what he needed to work on, which he was in a great position to do since his father was/is an NBA coach. He had nothing to lose by just declaring since he was a junior. I was totally shocked when he left.

Regarding the nbadraft.net site, if you read G's profile it appears to have not been updated since early last season.

I spoke with Mike about this several times. He truly never intended to skip his senior year... he was a committed student, something he showed by coming back immediately after leaving and finishing his degree.

But as he said to me, "How could I not go? If people had been saying I would be a first round pick, I could have given it up. But #3? By going early, I got the benefit of being an early pick AND was still able to come back to Duke and get my degree."

Could you turn down an offer like Mike's in your field if you were a junior in college? I doubt it!

[jimsumner]

"i think G has to come back to learn to drive left"

Will this keep an NBA team from drafting him in the top ten?

Can he not learn to drive left in the NBA?

Will another year at Duke substantially enhance his value to the NBA?

Is it in his best interests to start the NBA clock now or wait a year?

[ice-9]

I agree with Jim (or at least, the answer that I am inferring from his questions :)).

I got a friend who is awesome driving left; even better than when driving right, and he's right handed. I asked him how he got so good going left. He told me he got cut from his high school team as a freshman because his coach told him he was too weak going left, and so he practiced 100 lay-ups (around cones, from different angles, etc.) every day for the entire summer. Now, he feels more comfortable going left than right, and laying it up left than right.

I don't think Henderson needs to stay in college to address this flaw. What he really needs to do is train this particular skill over and over; applying it in real game situations will come in practice and pick-up games.

[Ignatius07]

Agreed with Jim on the point of learning how to go left in the NBA. Some people presume for some reason that players do not improve in the NBA. Their entire lives are devoted to basketball at that level - no more juggling class and other activities.

One could argue that he'll get more playing time in college to work on his weaknesses in game situations, but I think this argument is more apt to a college freshman than junior.

[Indoor66]

Agreed with Jim on the point of learning how to go left in the NBA. Some people presume for some reason that players do not improve in the NBA. Their entire lives are devoted to basketball at that level - no more juggling class and other activities.

One could argue that he'll get more playing time in college to work on his weaknesses in game situations, but I think this argument is more apt to a college freshman than junior.

I agree.

If you doubt that players improve in the NBA, check out Duane Wade's 3 point shooting today compared to his shooting when he came in the league. Out of Marquette he barely could make a 3, now he is a most reliable 3 shooter to go along with his mid-range and driving game.

[dgoore97]

And the reason is he seems to value and enjoy the college experience. if he wants to have a senior year in college with his friends, he only has one chance to do it. he is not a hardship case, so he has the luxury of waiting. Maybe if he was going to be the number 1 pick, but i think just being a potential lottery pick won't be enough.

maybe this is wishful thinking though.

[jimsumner]

We all wish we could have played basketball at Duke. We all wish we were 21again. We romanticize what it must be like by talking about things like seeing your jersey in the Cameron rafters and building a legacy.

I suspect Henderson will be thinking about this sort of thing next month when he really starts to consider his options. And maybe it will matter. Maybe matter a lot. Or maybe not.

But it is going to be largely--maybe exclusively--a business decision. Duke does a great job of letting people know where they stand. Gerald Henderson the father obviously can augment that information.

So, you look at where you would likely be drafted this season. You look at what improvement, if any, you could see with another year in college.

How close are you to a degree? How important is a degree? How hard would it be to get a degree while playing in the NBA?

You look at how long you can play in the NBA and try to ascertain whether deferring your entry into the paying ranks by one year will increase or decrease your career earning potential. Will your endorsement potential increase with another year at Duke?

You factor in those emotional things. Do you love college, tolerate college, hate college? How important is another chance to win an NCAA title, the ACC POY award, beat Carolina at home, have your number retired?

Only Henderson can assign a value to those variables. But the hard math of do-I-stay-or-do-I-go should be clearer to Henderson a couple of months down the road than it is now and I think those numbers will drive his decision.

My two cents.

[allenmurray]

learn to drive left" . . .


Can he not learn to drive left . . . ?


Is this a basketball board or a NASCAR board?