Good Defense?

[Skitzle]

So I'll preface this by saying 2 things. 1) I didn't see the Flordia State Game and 2) I'm not all that great a "basketball analyst" I've never really played the game so I don't see things the way more experienced people do.

With that in mind, could someone give me an education on the idea that Duke is playing "excellent" defense. To my untrained eye it seems to be a little... inflated.

FSU may have only scored 14 points in the first half, but Duke gave up 44 in the second. I don't see how thats very good defense that's more points than VT scored in the first game of the season.

GT seemed to give up a lot of "unforced" turnovers. Travels/Bad Passes. They were the types of turnovers I wouldn't expect a more experienced/better offensive team to give up.

So... that said... Tell me that I'm wrong and tell my why :).

Thanks,
-Skitz

[greybeard]

So I'll preface this by saying 2 things. 1) I didn't see the Flordia State Game and 2) I'm not all that great a "basketball analyst" I've never really played the game so I don't see things the way more experienced people do.

With that in mind, could someone give me an education on the idea that Duke is playing "excellent" defense. To my untrained eye it seems to be a little... inflated.

FSU may have only scored 14 points in the first half, but Duke gave up 44 in the second. I don't see how thats very good defense that's more points than VT scored in the first game of the season.

GT seemed to give up a lot of "unforced" turnovers. Travels/Bad Passes. They were the types of turnovers I wouldn't expect a more experienced/better offensive team to give up.

So... that said... Tell me that I'm wrong and tell my why :).

Thanks,
-Skitz

GT players found themselves going to dribble or make a pass and being surprised to find a Duke off-the-ball defender right where they were going when it was impossible to stop without committing one of those unforced errors.

Duke has a very athletic array of experienced players of decent length and tremendous basketball smarts. They deploy in ways that invite or force you to make a play and allow their off-the-ball defenders to make reads that kill.

More experienced teams might take great pains to avoid such missteps but (1) are never anywhere near completely successful; (2) spend an incredible amount of time on offense playing defense against the defense if that makes any sense; and (3) because of no. 2 very often get a shot from a person and spot that they are not particularly found of or familiar with.

If Duke finds a way to mesh anywhere near as well on offense, look out.

[rockymtn devil]

Points against is not always a good indicator of a team's defensive quality. If team A plays a very slow offensive style (think Washington State, Wisconsin, Princeton) they don't provide their opponents with many possessions and, therefore, won't give up many points. If team B plays a much more up-tempo style (think Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke) they provide their opponents more possessions and therefore will give up more points. Does that mean Team A is a better defensive team than Team B? Not necessarily. It's comparing apples and oranges.

This blog attempts to compare apples to apples by ranking defensive efficiency which is determined by points against per 100 defensive possessions. According to it, Duke is the 5th best defensive team in the country (#2 when the stats are adjusted to take into account the quality of opposing offenses). That's fantastic.

http://kenpom.com/rate.php

[jv001]

graybeard said it very well. In our man to man D we switch very well. We have good perimeter players that contest every pass. This causes the shot clock to wind down and most of the time our opponents are not able to get the ball in the hands of their best players. Plus the shot is contested. We deny the passing lanes well. Jon is very good in keeping the ball out of his man's hands. Remember we have not played very well offensively and that puts added pressure on our defense. Three point shots some times leads to break outs but so far our defense has been pretty good about getting back on D. In other words, Our Defense has pretty much carried us so far. Go Duke!

[Wander]

When one opponent does the "unforced" turnovers thing, maybe that team just sucks (which GT does). When your opponents consistently do it game after game, while also shooting poorly... there's something more to it.

[CDu]

FSU may have only scored 14 points in the first half, but Duke gave up 44 in the second. I don't see how thats very good defense that's more points than VT scored in the first game of the season.

GT seemed to give up a lot of "unforced" turnovers. Travels/Bad Passes. They were the types of turnovers I wouldn't expect a more experienced/better offensive team to give up.

So... that said... Tell me that I'm wrong and tell my why :).

Thanks,
-Skitz

With regard to FSU, the second-half defense is only half the story. You seem to be overlooking the fact that we gave up only 14 points in the first half! The game is 40 minutes long, and every team will have some bad stretches along the way. Also, saying that 44 points in the second half is more than we gave up to Va Tech (it's actually the same amount, but anyway) overlooks the fact that 44 points allowed to Va Tech is ALSO really good.

[Skitzle]

Points against is not always a good indicator of a team's defensive quality. If team A plays a very slow offensive style (think Washington State, Wisconsin, Princeton) they don't provide their opponents with many possessions and, therefore, won't give up many points. If team B plays a much more up-tempo style (think Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke) they provide their opponents more possessions and therefore will give up more points. Does that mean Team A is a better defensive team than Team B? Not necessarily. It's comparing apples and oranges.

This blog attempts to compare apples to apples by ranking defensive efficiency which is determined by points against per 100 defensive possessions. According to it, Duke is the 5th best defensive team in the country (#2 when the stats are adjusted to take into account the quality of opposing offenses). That's fantastic.

http://kenpom.com/rate.php

First thanks to you both. Greybeard, I've always appreciated your basketball analysis. You do a good job of breaking things down in a way that makes sense. You should give lessons (IE 2/3 things to pay attention to/look for in each game) we'd all learn a ton!

Rockymtn:

1) So you're telling me that there were more possessions in the Second half against FSU, but FSU's points per possession were the same? Was Duke still playing "good" defense in the second half

2) How much fluctuation is seen in the Kenpom numbers over the course of the season. Could Duke sink significantly down the ranks as it faces the better offenses?

They had a tough time with RI (20th best offense) and Michigan (24th), and they've still got UNC (1) Georgetown (4) Clemson (21) (amongst others) coming up.

I guess we'll see this weekend...




Interesting to note that no team is in the top 10 in offense and defense (yet) this year. Last year there were 3. Kansas, Memphis, & UCLA see a trend?

[Skitzle]

When one opponent does the "unforced" turnovers thing, maybe that team just sucks (which GT does). When your opponents consistently do it game after game, while also shooting poorly... there's something more to it.

Great point. I was traveling during the first few weeks of the year so the GT game is the first ACC game I've gotten to watch all year.

[jv001]

First thanks to you both. Greybeard, I've always appreciated your basketball analysis. You do a good job of breaking things down in a way that makes sense. You should give lessons (IE 2/3 things to pay attention to/look for in each game) we'd all learn a ton!

Rockymtn:

1) So you're telling me that there were more possessions in the Second half against FSU, but FSU's points per possession were the same? Was Duke still playing "good" defense in the second half

2) How much fluctuation is seen in the Kenpom numbers over the course of the season. Could Duke sink significantly down the ranks as it faces the better offenses?

They had a tough time with RI (20th best offense) and Michigan (24th), and they've still got UNC (1) Georgetown (4) Clemson (21) (amongst others) coming up.

I guess we'll see this weekend...




Interesting to note that no team is in the top 10 in offense and defense (yet) this year. Last year there were 3. Kansas, Memphis, & UCLA see a trend?

The three teams you list Kansas, Memphis and UCLA had some pretty tough losses to the pros. And you're probably right we will drop alittle by playing the best offensive teams. If we're going to compete for the national championship, we must pick it up offensively. Go Duke!

[rockymtn devil]

Rockymtn:

1) So you're telling me that there were more possessions in the Second half against FSU, but FSU's points per possession were the same? Was Duke still playing "good" defense in the second half

2) How much fluctuation is seen in the Kenpom numbers over the course of the season. Could Duke sink significantly down the ranks as it faces the better offenses?

They had a tough time with RI (20th best offense) and Michigan (24th), and they've still got UNC (1) Georgetown (4) Clemson (21) (amongst others) coming up.

I guess we'll see this weekend...




Interesting to note that no team is in the top 10 in offense and defense (yet) this year. Last year there were 3. Kansas, Memphis, & UCLA see a trend?

I haven't looked at the numbers for any specific Duke game, so I can't say if there were more possessions in the second half of the FSU game (I would guess there were). There tends to be quite a bit of consistency in the Pomeroy ratings. Luke Winn at SI.com did a bit on how you can use the ratings to narrow national title contenders down to about 5 or so.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/luke_winn/01/07/midseason/index.html

Note that since the column was written Duke has played FSU and GT and had their adjusted efficiency drop one spot.

At this point in the season, the sample size is probably big enough to make the ratings pretty reliable. In another two weeks or so--as more teams get into the heart of conference play--they will be even more reliable.

[MChambers]

How much fluctuation is seen in the Kenpom numbers over the course of the season. Could Duke sink significantly down the ranks as it faces the better offenses?

They had a tough time with RI (20th best offense) and Michigan (24th), and they've still got UNC (1) Georgetown (4) Clemson (21) (amongst others) coming up.

I guess we'll see this weekend...

Interesting to note that no team is in the top 10 in offense and defense (yet) this year. Last year there were 3. Kansas, Memphis, & UCLA see a trend?

Last year, Duke's defense did sink as the season progressed. Nolan's injury, and maybe Dave's knee issues, may have had something to do with it. The Devils are deeper this year, so that should help avoid sinking.

I also think that Duke's offense has a lot of potential, especially if Paulus regains his touch and the team resumes getting the ball inside more.