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View Full Version : Minutes per game in the Coach K era



Mike Corey
01-16-2009, 11:01 AM
Team (Overall record)
Players at certain levels of minutes per game

1980-81 (17-13)
Over 35 minutes: 0
Over 30 minutes: 4
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 5
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 7

1981-82 (10-17)
Over 35 minutes: 2
Over 30 minutes: 3
Over 25 minutes: 3
Over 20 minutes: 5
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 9

1982-83 (11-17)
Over 35 minutes: 1
Over 30 minutes: 1
Over 25 minutes: 3
Over 20 minutes: 6
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 9

1983-84 (24-10)
Over 35 minutes: 2
Over 30 minutes: 3
Over 25 minutes: 5
Over 20 minutes: 6
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 7

1984-85 (23-8)
Over 35 minutes: 1
Over 30 minutes: 3
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 6
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 7

1985-86 (37-3) - National Runner-Up
Over 35 minutes: 0
Over 30 minutes: 2
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 6
Over 15 minutes: 7
Over 10 minutes: 7

1986-87 (24-9)
Over 35 minutes: 1
Over 30 minutes: 2
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 6
Over 15 minutes: 7
Over 10 minutes: 9

1987-88 (28-7) - Final Four
Over 35 minutes: 0
Over 30 minutes: 1
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 5
Over 15 minutes: 7
Over 10 minutes: 8

1988-89 (28-8) - Final Four
Over 35 minutes: 0
Over 30 minutes: 2
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 4
Over 15 minutes: 7
Over 10 minutes: 8

1989-90 (29-9) - National Runner-Up
Over 35 minutes: 0
Over 30 minutes: 2
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 5
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 9

1990-91 (32-7) - National Champion
Over 35 minutes: 0
Over 30 minutes: 2
Over 25 minutes: 2
Over 20 minutes: 6
Over 15 minutes: 7
Over 10 minutes: 9

1991-92 (34-2) - National Champion
Over 35 minutes: 0
Over 30 minutes: 5
Over 25 minutes: 5
Over 20 minutes: 6
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 7

1992-93 (24-8)
Over 35 minutes: 1
Over 30 minutes: 3
Over 25 minutes: 5
Over 20 minutes: 5
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 9

1993-94 (28-6) - National Runner-Up
Over 35 minutes: 1
Over 30 minutes: 4
Over 25 minutes: 5
Over 20 minutes: 6
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 8

1994-95 (13-18)
Over 35 minutes: 1
Over 30 minutes: 1
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 5
Over 15 minutes: 8
Over 10 minutes: 9

1995-96 (18-13)
Over 35 minutes: 0
Over 30 minutes: 3
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 8
Over 15 minutes: 8
Over 10 minutes: 8

1996-97 (24-9)
Over 35 minutes: 0
Over 30 minutes: 1
Over 25 minutes: 3
Over 20 minutes: 6
Over 15 minutes: 7
Over 10 minutes: 9

1997-98 (32-4)
Over 35 minutes: 0
Over 30 minutes: 0
Over 25 minutes: 2
Over 20 minutes: 6
Over 15 minutes: 7
Over 10 minutes: 9 (and one at 9.9 mpg)

1998-99 (37-2) - National Runner-Up
Over 35 minutes: 0
Over 30 minutes: 2
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 5
Over 15 minutes: 7
Over 10 minutes: 8 (and one at 9.9 mpg)

1999-2000 (29-5)
Over 35 minutes: 2
Over 30 minutes: 3
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 6
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 6

2000-01 (35-4) - National Champion
Over 35 minutes: 0
Over 30 minutes: 2
Over 25 minutes: 6
Over 20 minutes: 6
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 8

2001-02 (31-4)
Over 35 minutes: 1
Over 30 minutes: 3
Over 25 minutes: 5
Over 20 minutes: 5
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 6

2002-03 (26-7)
Over 35 minutes: 1
Over 30 minutes: 3
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 4
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 9

2003-04 (31-6) - Final Four
Over 35 minutes: 1
Over 30 minutes: 4
Over 25 minutes: 5
Over 20 minutes: 5
Over 15 minutes: 7
Over 10 minutes: 7

2004-05 (27-6)
Over 35 minutes: 1
Over 30 minutes: 3
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 5
Over 15 minutes: 7
Over 10 minutes: 8

2005-06 (32-4)
Over 35 minutes: 1
Over 30 minutes: 3
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 6
Over 15 minutes: 7
Over 10 minutes: 7

2006-07 (22-11)
Over 35 minutes: 1
Over 30 minutes: 4
Over 25 minutes: 4
Over 20 minutes: 5
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 8

2007-08 (28-6)
Over 35 minutes: 0
Over 30 minutes: 1
Over 25 minutes: 5
Over 20 minutes: 5
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 8 (with one at 9.7 mpg)

2008-09 (13-1)
Over 35 minutes: 0
Over 30 minutes: 0
Over 25 minutes: 2
Over 20 minutes: 4
Over 15 minutes: 6
Over 10 minutes: 9

Here's a chart tracking the the number of players, season-by-season, that have averaged over 30 mpg during K's tenure:

http://i279.photobucket.com/albums/kk139/PolicyInPractice/A-CoachKChart.png

On Duke's 10 Final Four teams, we had 8 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game, 5.3 players averaging at least 20 minutes per game, and 2.6 players averaging at least 30 mpg.

Since we last went to the Final Four, we have had 8 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game, 5 players averaging at least 20 minutes per game, and 2.2 players averaging at least 30 mpg.

Of Duke's 10 Final Four squads, only 2 have had a single player averaging more than 35 minutes per game.

My guess is that as this year wears on, our rotation will alter the numbers to the point where we have 3 guys playing more than 30 mpg (Singler, Scheyer, Henderson), and only 8 playing 10 minutes or more. But we'll see what happens.

SMO
01-16-2009, 11:18 AM
Thanks for the research! Now we get to read all the posts that will come out trying to dispell what you've clearly demonstrated: successful teams have guys that play a lot of minutes.

Can't wait to hear "but, but, but, minutes are different now than they were in the 80's and 90's", "but those were GREAT teams and we can't really compare minutes of great teams vs. minutes of the non-great team we have now!", "what about practice minutes?", etc., etc.

RepoMan
01-16-2009, 11:21 AM
Nothing like actual data to provide some clarity. Thanks, Mike

BlueintheFace
01-16-2009, 11:29 AM
very helpful. This data has certainly made up my mind on the issue.

Obviously the 2008-09 numbers are going to change quite a bit since we are just now jumping in to conference play, but I found the 2004 numbers particularly interesting

SMO
01-16-2009, 11:40 AM
very helpful. This data has certainly made up my mind on the issue.

Obviously the 2008-09 numbers are going to change quite a bit since we are just now jumping in to conference play, but I found the 2004 numbers particularly interesting

What I find interesting is that in 07-08 we had relatively few guys over 30 a game and no one over 35! And that's the season that got everyone talking about minutes! Granted, the coaching staff and players talked about it too particularly in Kyle's case.

Travis
01-16-2009, 12:01 PM
Can you include the average year of the persons averaging over 30 minutes per game? One potential issue is whether younger players--for example freshman who, at least allegedly, tend to hit a wall---have more of a tendency to wear down than older players who have had more years in Duke's conditioning program. A trend towards longer minutes being played by younger players could be hidden in your data. If so, then we are back to arguing over whether younger players are more likely to fatigue, which is good as killing off arguments with data is the bane of discussion boards :)

Travis

P.S. I do think that age has something to do with Hansbrough being lauded for his fitness his freshman year. OF course, he was strong for a freshman; he was freaking 21 already!

Mike Corey
01-16-2009, 12:10 PM
Can you include the average year of the persons averaging over 30 minutes per game?

You've identified the fatal flaw in all the data.

I don't have time today or this weekend, but I'll get to it next week, for sure. And if I'm neglecting my duty, send me a reminder.

gofurman
01-16-2009, 01:08 PM
Nothing like actual data to provide some clarity. Thanks, Mike

I find an interesting trend: that most our final four teams (all but two - 94 and 04) had 0 players at 35 minutes and above.

A much higher percentage of teams that fell short of the final four had someone playing 35 minutes or more. Witness '99 then 2000 then 2001. The less guys at 35 minutes the better.

Look at the 1981 to 1992 period - Each and Every year no one played 35 minutes we make the final four...as soon as you had guys at 35 minutes we didn't make the 4. That simple (well sort of, I agree with the comment about freshman struggling with more minutes)

Ian
01-16-2009, 01:15 PM
I don't think these stats are the be all and end all of the discussion at all.

Factors not taken in to account includes:

1) The size of the team. Playing undersized and banging against teams that are bigger than you takes more out of you over the course of a game, and over the course of a season. So averaging the same 33 mpg does not translate between different seasons if the teams in question have different physical make up.

2) The margin of victory. If you can get up to big leads, you can probably coast a bit over the course of the game. Teams that are talented enough to jump on top of opponents by big margins can average the same number of minutes for the starters and be much less tired than teams that had to grind out the entire game.

There are probably other factors I'm missing. But I think the most relevant data, much more so than the minute distributions from 1980s and 1990s. Is that the past few seasons Duke has visibly wore down toward the end of the season. That is an indisputable fact, and that is the problem we are potentially dealing with again this season. The question is, are we doing anything different than we have the last few years, and if not, why should we expect the team to be in any different condition come March?

Mike Corey
01-16-2009, 01:23 PM
I don't think these stats are the be all and end all of the discussion at all.

Factors not taken in to account includes:

1) The size of the team. Playing undersized and banging against teams that are bigger than you takes more out of you over the course of a game, and over the course of a season. So averaging the same 33 mpg does not translate between different seasons if the teams in question have different physical make up.

2) The margin of victory. If you can get up to big leads, you can probably coast a bit over the course of the game. Teams that are talented enough to jump on top of opponents by big margins can average the same number of minutes for the starters and be much less tired than teams that had to grind out the entire game.

It certainly wasn't my intention to quell conversation. I did want to infuse the chatter with some more facts, however.

And you bring up two terrific qualifiers to the presented information. Next week, I'll try to add those factors in as best I can.

Travis
01-16-2009, 01:23 PM
Age is another factor that I brought up. And if it is a factor, it might be positive this year particularly in the most talked about case of Singler wearing down as a freshman.

jv001
01-16-2009, 01:29 PM
Thanks Mike for a good post that shows that mins played do not translate to teams not making plays at the end of the season. Kyle was the one player that was clearly tired at years end but that was from playing the opponent's #5 for most of the year. Plus Kyle plays all out on every play. He does not take a play off on offense or defense. He guards every position and does it very well. That will tend to tire anyone out. Hopefully Kyle's summer work out program has him ready for the entire year. As for other players that appeared tired the past two years, I think that was from a mental standpoint not a physical one. As for this year I believe we will be ready for March. Go Duke!

Ian
01-16-2009, 01:29 PM
It certainly wasn't my intention to quell conversation. I did want to infuse the chatter with some more facts, however.

And you bring up two terrific qualifiers to the presented information. Next week, I'll try to add those factors in as best I can.

I wasn't implying that's what you were trying to do, I was mostly replying to the people made the "that ends the discussion for me" type of posts in response to it.

gofurman
01-16-2009, 01:31 PM
I think Lord Ash is on to something:

"I think that a big difference between JJ/Kyle and Shane/Shel is that JJ and Kyle are the primary focus of opposing teams D; they face very intense pressure and relentless focus, and on top of that if JJ or Kyle doesn't score, we are doomed, whereas if Shel or Shane didn't score, they had guys who could pick up the slack and they were not the focus as much. Also, maybe the guys who Kyle and JJ are seeing against them are bigger or stronger or more athletic than they are, whereas Shel and Shane rarely saw guys bigger and stronger up against them? Are JJ and Kyle simply not in as good shape as the guys you mentioned? Do they play harder? Do they have to work harder for what they get? Clearly there is something going on there."

Basically, different players and types of players Singler / JJ - struggle more than others as the season wears on.... after logging numerous minutes. Some it never affects. For those that want to say this all bunk I don't think we can go that far since Singler and JJ both said that they indeed were worn down.

Hopefully, Singler - for reasons noted by others - is better ready for March this year... I do wish we would give him a few more minutes of rest during the year.

Heck, even if it cost us one or two losses in the reg season vs gaining a better chance in March?

Fish80
01-16-2009, 01:41 PM
Thank you for the statistics. Very interesting indeed.

While these statistics add a great deal to the discussion and help us understand probabilities, they don't account for the uniqueness of each individual.

Chris Duhon never gets tired playing. His motor goes all day long. Jon Scheyer has phenomenal endurance (remember his VO2 max) yet he has seemed to wear down at the end of the season.

IMHO minutes played are not the most significant factor. I think the individual's emotional response is the significant factor.

By the end of his senior year, JJ was understandably emotionally fatigued. He not only invested all his emotion in each game, he dealt with unfathomable media pressures. Christian Laettner may have dealt with similar media pressures, but his emotional response was much different, and we all know how he performed at the end of each season.

ncexnyc
01-16-2009, 01:49 PM
As for other players that appeared tired the past two years, I think that was from a mental standpoint not a physical one.

Exactly how do you seperate one from the other? Isn't the end result the same, whether it's mental or physical fatigue?

ncexnyc
01-16-2009, 01:56 PM
Thank you for the statistics. Very interesting indeed.

While these statistics add a great deal to the discussion and help us understand probabilities, they don't account for the uniqueness of each individual.

Chris Duhon never gets tired playing. His motor goes all day long. Jon Scheyer has phenomenal endurance (remember his VO2 max) yet he has seemed to wear down at the end of the season.

IMHO minutes played are not the most significant factor. I think the individual's emotional response is the significant factor.

By the end of his senior year, JJ was understandably emotionally fatigued. He not only invested all his emotion in each game, he dealt with unfathomable media pressures. Christian Laettner may have dealt with similar media pressures, but his emotional response was much different, and we all know how he performed at the end of each season.
"While the individual man is an insoluble puzzle, in the aggregate he becomes a mathematical certainty. You can, for example, never foretell what any one man will be up to, but you can say with precision what an average number will be up to. Individuals vary, but percentages remain constant. So says the statistician." ~Arthur Conan Doyle
Thank you for your post. It seems some people think everyone is identical.
I recall MJ had one of his greatest games as a pro, while sick with the flu. If you follow the logic expressed by some members of this board, if our players were indeed sick versus Belmont and WVA, they should have played like titans.

jv001
01-16-2009, 01:58 PM
Exactly how do you seperate one from the other? Isn't the end result the same, whether it's mental or physical fatigue?

I just don't think mental fatigue comes from too many mpg. Physical fatigue coming from playing each team's big could.

quickgtp
01-16-2009, 02:03 PM
CavLaw, if you can please, show me where I "assumed" that no one else here was an athlete, or a Division 1 athlete for that matter. I simply used my experience and tried to relate it to my opinion. I personally think you read way too much into it. This is the very reason why I am hesitant to type here.

SMO
01-16-2009, 04:05 PM
It seems some people think everyone is identical.

I actually agree with you on this point. Similarly, we should not assume that all minutes are identical and that the effect of minutes on individuals is identical. That means we need to get away from the tendency to assume all minutes are bad, and that all minutes above 30, 35, etc. are going to lead to fatigue in March. It's way more complex than that and the amount of consternation regarding minutes played is ridiculous.

jgehtland
01-16-2009, 04:37 PM
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/insider/news/story?id=3836393 is an article from ESPN on how Duke's depth will be the difference against Georgetown. I don't know who the author is or how much authority we should grant him, but an interesting read nonetheless.