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Jumbo
01-10-2009, 06:13 PM
This game was as strange in the stats as it was on the court. Nolan Smith had one assist and seven turnovers, yet led the team in plus/minus. Brian Zoubek played his worst game in ages, yet was +13. Gerald Henderson was the star of the afternoon, yet Duke went on an 8-0 run without him on the floor at one point.
All of those points illustrate the difficulties in interpreting too much from single-game plus/minus numbers. Smith actually played great during Duke's big run, and his plus/minus success has as much to do with Paulus' failings. Zoubek, once again, hardly played with anyone other than the starters, and benefitted from being on the floor for the big start to the second half. And so forth.
The clear trends, though, is the bench -- especially Paulus. They all have to play better. The complaints about depth/minutes are silly and relatively pointless. But it's especially hard to tolerate them when the bench continues to perform poorly. It's also instructive to note that Elliot Williams essentially replaced Paulus in the rotation for a while, and the fact that he didn't get into the VT game doesn't seem to have changed his performance one way or another. So, as I've said, depth is really about how many guys you can play.
Finally, I must note that the late-game FT shooting unit -- Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler -- finally gave up its first points of the season. Prior to this game, that unit had outscored opponents 19-0. Anyway, on to the numbers ...

Individuals
Nolan Smith 58-44 (+14)
Brian Zoubek 24-11 (+13)
Kyle Singler 57-45 (+12)
Jon Scheyer 64-58 (+6)
Gerald Henderson 52-46 (+6)
Elliot Williams 6-6 (0)
Dave McClure 29-31 (-2)
Lance Thomas 33-37 (-4)
Greg Paulus 7-12 (-5)

Per 40 Minutes

Nolan Smith +19.3
Brian Zoubek +37.1
Kyle Singler +14.1
Gerald Henderson +7.1
Jon Scheyer +6.3
Elliot Williams 0
Dave McClure -5.3
Lance Thomas -7.0
Greg Paulus -33.3

Lineups

Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek (x3) 19-9 (+10)
Smith-Scheyer-McClure-Singler-Thomas 8-0 (+8)
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x6) 16-14 (+2)
Smith-Scheyer-Williams-McClure-Zoubek 2-0 (+2)
Paulus-Henderson-McClure-Singler-Thomas 2-0 (+2)
Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-McClure-Zoubek 3-2 (+1)
Paulus-Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler (x3) 1-0, 1-0, 0-2 = 2-2 (0)
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Singler (x4) 7-8 (-1)
Smith-Scheyer-Williams-McClure-Thomas 1-2 (-1)
Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x2) 0-2, 0-0 = 0-2 (-2)
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Thomas (x2) 3-9 (-6)
Paulus-Scheyer-McClure-Singler-Thomas (x2) 3-10 (-7)

FireOgilvie
01-10-2009, 06:37 PM
It's been shown over and over again this season that Duke is at its best when Zoubek is in the lineup. I don't think Thomas has ever come out ahead of Zoubek in the plus/minus, and it has nothing to do with the "starters making him look good". Compare the lineups with single player substitutions.

Through Davidson:
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek (x37) 247-154 (+93)
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x34) 125-112 (+13)

Brian Zoubek 470-265 (+205) 14 minutes/game
Lance Thomas 491-408 (+83) 17 minutes/game

Zoubek has been a complete game-changer this year on defense. His play has been absolutely critical to Duke's success this year and he's been doing it in 14.5 minutes a game.

loran16
01-10-2009, 07:59 PM
This game was as strange in the stats as it was on the court. Nolan Smith had one assist and seven turnovers, yet led the team in plus/minus. Brian Zoubek played his worst game in ages, yet was +13. Gerald Henderson was the star of the afternoon, yet Duke went on an 8-0 run without him on the floor at one point.
All of those points illustrate the difficulties in interpreting too much from single-game plus/minus numbers. Smith actually played great during Duke's big run, and his plus/minus success has as much to do with Paulus' failings. Zoubek, once again, hardly played with anyone other than the starters, and benefitted from being on the floor for the big start to the second half. And so forth.

See I'd disagree on the cause for the Gerald bit. Gerald did his best playing in the first half. Yet he was (i don't know when he subbed out in the first half) probably at best +5, thanks to our 19-14 lead at half. Then the second half bit was largely (until the end) due to our other shooters coming more alive.

Now on the other hand, there's another cause: Gerald tends to disappear offensively at times during the game. Say the middle of the 2nd quarter. And there he loses a lot of his +/- numbers.


--------------------
FireOgilvie, I totally agree with you and wondered why on earth Zoo wasn't getting more minutes in the end to try and learn to defend big strong players. It's not like he's a Free throw liability, and lance had 4 fouls. I think he'd have been at least as fine as D-Mcclure, and it would've helped his development some.

jma4life
01-10-2009, 08:40 PM
As we've discussed at length before in the Jumbo phase thread, Paulus really needs to step up. I'm not going to go so far as to say its sad to see his current state because he's still a member of a top 5 college basketball team and this is only a dumb game but it's definitely tough to see him struggling so immensely. He actually had one great drive today but missed a layup which he really could have made. Other than that, he was out of sync again. I don't know if he's going to get out of this funk and I thought he had a chance of doing so last game after hitting a couple of jump shots but right now, he's still in it and is not playing up to his potential. And make no mistake, his playing up to his potential will be a huge bonus for Duke if he can reach it.

One question on the plus minus. Not sure if this has been asked but what do you do if there are substitutions during free throws? I would assume you give all points to the players who were on the floor before the substitutions and thus, when the foul occurred, but just wanted checking. Thanks again for the numbers.

mgtr
01-10-2009, 09:21 PM
As I figure it, there were a total of thirteen positive lineups. Interestingly, eleven of those contained both Smith and Scheyer. That may give an indication of who is running the team. Even though neither player had a spectacular offensive game (Scheyer actually missed free throws), they made things happen, and played great defense.

ice-9
01-10-2009, 10:01 PM
It's been shown over and over again this season that Duke is at its best when Zoubek is in the lineup. I don't think Thomas has ever come out ahead of Zoubek in the plus/minus, and it has nothing to do with the "starters making him look good". Compare the lineups with single player substitutions.

Through Davidson:
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek (x37) 247-154 (+93)
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x34) 125-112 (+13)

Brian Zoubek 470-265 (+205) 14 minutes/game
Lance Thomas 491-408 (+83) 17 minutes/game

Zoubek has been a complete game-changer this year on defense. His play has been absolutely critical to Duke's success this year and he's been doing it in 14.5 minutes a game.


More stats to back up your point FireOgilvie:

Plus/minus for the starters over the season (through Davidson):
* Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek: +93
* Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas: +13
* Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Plumlee: 0

Conclusion: Zoubek is our best 5 with the starters. The starters play best with Zoubek at the 5.

Plus/minus for the bench over the season (through Davidson):
* Paulus-Pocius-Williams-McClure-Zoubek: +4
* Paulus-Pocius-Williams-McClure-Thomas: -2
* Paulus-Pocius-Williams-McClure-Zoubek: -1

Conclusion: Zoubek is our best 5 even with the bench. The bench play best with Zoubek at the 5.

No matter how you cut it, the stats show that Zoubek is the real deal this season. I believe Coach K's decision to go small in the FSU game is a strategic decision -- i.e. be fast and disrupt the lanes -- and not so much a negative assessment of Zoubek as a player.