ESPN Ranks Duke 2..Good or Bad?

[geraldsneighbor]

Is it good to have the target on our backs now, although it always is, in January. We went from a team sort of quietly getting our work done to now a top 3 team in the poll. The AP may rank us 3, I'm not sure, but I'm curious for some thoughts on if this good or bad?


I am thrilled we are playing well though, don't get me wrong!

[Classof06]

After last season, I don't think any Duke fan should be worried about our ranking in early January.

[Mike Corey]

We went from a team sort of quietly getting our work done to now a top 3 team in the poll. The AP may rank us 3, I'm not sure, but I'm curious for some thoughts on if this good or bad?

I don't think it will have an appreciable difference in how we play or in how teams play against us. We just need to keep improving and following Jumbo's exquisite assessments, and we'll hopefully be okay.

[jimsumner]

I think Duke pretty much has a target on its back regardless of its ranking.

[DoubleDuke Dad]

Duke beats VT by 25 points. Very Good.
Duke ranked number 2. Very good.
Duke ranked above “The worlds greatest team ever”™ Priceless!

[CameronBornAndBred]

I think Duke pretty much has a target on its back regardless of its ranking.
Yup, that's a good point. Even when unranked, we are considered a signature win for somebody. As for the 2 ranking, it's fair. We are a top 10 team, where we actually fit in that order means little. But as long as the teams ranked ahead of lose, we'll obviously move up. I also think the high ranking helps the team in the long run, because we get our opponent's best shot every game and we have to be ready for it. Unlike someone down the road a bit.

[Jeffrey]

Hi,

I think Duke is frequently overrated due to the Coach K factor.

Best regards,
Jeffrey

[huied]

Luke Winn doesn't think so. He has us behind Pitt, UConn, Michigan State, Wake, and Louisville as teams that could beat the sheep in the tourny.

Pitt would be an interesting game. UConn has already struggled when Thabeet gets outplayed, and we'll find out about Wake soon. Louisville has been pretty mediocre this year and Michigan State already got monstered (although Suton was out).

So, even with the No. 2 ranking, some people aren't talking about us yet.

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/in_the_paint/posts/37821-the-week-in-hoops

Of course, Duke is Duke and will get everybody's best shot.

[Ultrarunner]

Is it good to have the target on our backs now, although it always is, in January. We went from a team sort of quietly getting our work done to now a top 3 team in the poll. The AP may rank us 3, I'm not sure, but I'm curious for some thoughts on if this good or bad?

I'm less worried about this team peaking early than I was with last year's squad. K is spreading out more minutes to more people and we're almost injury free (knocking on wood right now!).

A plus for me is that it appears that players are still improving - Nolan is more comfortable at the point, Brian looking like a legit big man in the pivot, Greg really played well yesterday, G has stepped up and the second unit is providing great defensive intensity (Lance, Dave). The freshman are freshman. The good news is that they will be sophomores next year. I still love their attitude especially Williams. He does not take guff from anyone.

Singler and Scheyer just rack up numbers and seem to play faster than everyone else mentally. Scheyer's defense is just beautiful.

Do we have holes? Yup. Are we over-rated? Might be. We'll see at the end of the season. In the meantime, it's a fun ride. Worry when it's time to worry and until then, enjoy.

[Lulu]

There's no sense to how the polls operate, but after a while you just get used to it. We all know that if two marquee schools both have an equal number of losses, the school with the more recent loss is ranked lower. That's pretty much the end of story, barring a headline event like blowing out another ranked team by 40, or going to OT with a division II school. Then you start accounting for the schools deemed to be in the 2nd tier that year, regardless of record.

This did just make me go check out Sagarin, though, and the #1 pure points or predictor rating was a little surprising, though we also all know that Duke plays well early in the year and we don't let up as much as others might.

edit: And amusingly, just noticed that Michigan and BC are ranked #36 and #37 respectively overall.

[loran16]

Wow, the coaches poll is Terrible:

1. Pittsburgh (30) 14-0 774
2. Duke 12-1 714
3. North Carolina (1) 13-1 707
4. Wake Forest 13-0 687
5. Connecticut 12-1 630
6. Oklahoma 13-1 593
7. Texas 11-2 546
7. UCLA 12-2 546
9. Syracuse 14-1 526
10. Georgetown 10-2 506

So let me get this straight, you're ranking Georgetown, with some Very good wins, including one at UConn, and two not bad losses (to #1 and Tennesee early) below UCLA who's beaten no one?

That's a freaking embarrassment. Gtown should be 5, Oklahoma 6, Texas 7, UCLA 10.

And Louisville making the poll over michigan is ridiculous also. Seriously.

[gadzooks]

I don't think it's either good or bad, it just is. As previous posters said, teams bring their game against Duke regardless of where they're ranked. I just really, really enjoy it when Duke is ranked higher than UNC, and it's especially sweet right now. :D

[CameronBornAndBred]

So let me get this straight, you're ranking Georgetown, with some Very good wins, including one at UConn, and two not bad losses (to #1 and Tennesee early) below UCLA who's beaten no one?

That's a freaking embarrassment. Gtown should be 5, Oklahoma 6, Texas 7, UCLA 10.

And Louisville making the poll over michigan is ridiculous also. Seriously.
Not to mention that UNC still got a vote for being 1st. After they lost at home vs. a non-ranked team.

[tbyers11]

Luke Winn doesn't think so. He has us behind Pitt, UConn, Michigan State, Wake, and Louisville as teams that could beat the sheep in the tourny.

Pitt would be an interesting game. UConn has already struggled when Thabeet gets outplayed, and we'll find out about Wake soon. Louisville has been pretty mediocre this year and Michigan State already got monstered (although Suton was out).

So, even with the No. 2 ranking, some people aren't talking about us yet.

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/in_the_paint/posts/37821-the-week-in-hoops

Of course, Duke is Duke and will get everybody's best shot.

I really like Luke Winn's stuff. I'll take him and Grant Wahl (who sadly doesn't seem to be writing college basketball stuff this season) at SI.com over any other national writers. However, I've got to disagree with much of his analysis in the top 5 teams most likely to knock off UNC.

IMO, he puts too much emphasis on having big bodies down low to bang with UNC. Sure you have to be able to defend Hansbrough, Thompson and Davis, but I think the key to beating UNC is to place pressure on them by attacking their defense. If they don't get the initial turnover off their pressure D, they can give up lots of easy baskets and open looks as BC showed last night. If you don't turn the ball over a lot and make UNC run a half court offense you can handle them to a certain extent if you have a solid defensive team.

I think Pitt and Duke match up well. I'd put Wake (I'm not sure they play good enough defense yet), UConn (I'm not sure they can score enough) and UCLA (if their frosh grow into their rankings) as teams also with a good shot.

I don't think Michigan State, Suton or no Suton, has much of a chance as evidenced by their blowout loss earlier. As for Lousiville, based on their season-to-date and not hype or potential they are currently a bubble NCAA team. Sure they have the horses in Clark, Samuels and Williams to beat anyone but I don't think they have the discipline to pull it off.

[yuedana]

I feel like the polls are pretty irrelevant. Considering that it is just the beginning of conference play, I would be happy if Duke can make it through with 4 (ecstatic if less) losses. Polls don't have any impact except to help place targets and provide bulletin board fodder. (Witness Danny Green's comments about a close game. [Danny should just stick to dancing] -- example 2-- Kyle's response to the Fox reporters question about K's timeout talk). With regards to targets, I feel like we get everybody's best shot regardless of the rankings.

[Lulu]

So when is the last time that Duke and UNC were #1 and #2 in the polls? All we need is a stumble by Pitt, though there's probably zero chance of that until at least the 17th.

Of course, I'd prefer if UNC continued their losing streak at Wake this week.

[CameronBornAndBred]

BC is now ranked in both polls due to their win. It's interesting that last week, neither poll had them even the outer numbers, and now the AP has them as 17 (Huh?) and the Coaches have them at 24 (more realistic). I see that 2 people in the AP also believe that UNC should still be ranked 1st.

Also to those who say polls are meaningless, that is true, but at this point in the year I think they make for a good judgement on where teams are in comparison to others.

[Chitowndevil]

Being #2 is neither good nor bad. Duke has dominated two top 20 teams in road/neutral games this year, and their only loss is on the road to a team they'd beaten handily on a neutral court three weeks earlier. That sounds like a top five team to me regardless of the name on the jersey.

That said, neither resumes nor rankings as of January mean much come March. Like every other team at this time of year, Duke has areas where it needs to improve in order to make a deep tourney run. Perimeter shooting is the obvious one. Turnovers is another; right now over 20% of offensive possessions end in TOs (link (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Duke&y=2009)).

Finally I agree with the criticism of college BB polls in general. As of today UCLA's best win according to Pomeroy ratings is a home win over Miami (Ohio), currently 64th. By contrast Georgetown has played 3 teams in the Pomeroy top 10 and beaten 2 of them. Of course *all* rankings are suspect at the point in the year due to sample sizes and disparities in scheduling (for example, Michigan is only 59th in the Pomeroy despite 3 wins over top 25 teams, due to having played 5 teams ranked 275 or worse). I really wish we could get rid of preseason polls, but ESPN needs something to promote those early season games.

[Lulu]

So when is the last time that Duke and UNC were #1 and #2 in the polls? All we need is a stumble by Pitt, though there's probably zero chance of that until at least the 17th.

Of course, I'd prefer if UNC continued their losing streak at Wake this week.

Think I answered my own question. February 17, 1998, with #1 UNC and #2 Duke, though the positions were reversed a couple weeks before that, at least in the AP Poll. I should have remembered this without asking, now that I think about it.

[Lord Ash]

Eh, I'll go with bad, but only because of the impact it has on opposing fans. We clearly are still a team with a lot of growing to do and in the ACC almost any team has a chance of beating us... it just gets more annoying when you are a top ranked (#1, #2, up there) team that loses because of the opposing fans crowing. Otherwise, I think the players themselves know where they are and where they want to be.

[Hancock 4 Duke]

Eh, I'll go with bad, but only because of the impact it has on opposing fans. We clearly are still a team with a lot of growing to do and in the ACC almost any team has a chance of beating us... it just gets more annoying when you are a top ranked (#1, #2, up there) team that loses because of the opposing fans crowing. Otherwise, I think the players themselves know where they are and where they want to be.
I think that it would be good because it can make other teams be afraid of us and it can also encourage the Duke basketball players to play as good as their ranking is.

[hurleyfor3]

Not to mention that UNC still got a vote for being 1st. After they lost at home vs. a non-ranked team.

I don't have a problem with that (it being unc notwithstanding). Voters should rank the teams using all available evidence, not just based on how they did in their last game. It is still quite defensible to claim that unc is the best team in the country.

We kept our #1 ranking in 1992 during the two weeks in which we lost. It helped that all the good teams lost those weeks too, but this forced voters to think in terms of who the best teams were rather than merely who went the longest without losing.

If it were up to me I'd rank unc either first (still) or second, with pitt in the other spot. Now if they lose to Wake... stick it to 'em.

[juise]

If it were up to me I'd rank unc either first (still) or second, with pitt in the other spot.

Ditto. I expected Duke to be third today.

We need to keep in mind that the 2006-07 Duke team was ranked #5 in the week 8 polls with an identical 12-1 record. I believe that this year's team is much more capable than the 06/07 team, but I think it illustrates the value of the polls in the first week of January.

[BD80]

ESPN Ranks Duke 2..Good or Bad?


GOOD!

The polls have a bearing on seeding in the tourney. Having top-10 or top-20 victories on the resume can also make a difference in seeding, so it is good to have as many ACC teams and other opponents in the rankings as well.

It is also cool to have one's alma maters ranked 1 and 2 :D

[roywhite]

Just listened to Jay Bilas on SportsCenter talking about how he considered Tarheels "still the best team" have "best overall body of work this season", "nobody can beat them when they're playing their best".."the only way they lose is if they beat themselves" (or something to that effect)

Ugh.

[hurleyfor3]

"the only way they lose is if they beat themselves"

I didn't realize Ademola Okulaja played last night. Also, Jay forgot to mention that nobody tries harder than Tyler.

[Wander]

Just listened to Jay Bilas on SportsCenter talking about how he considered Tarheels "still the best team" have "best overall body of work this season", "nobody can beat them when they're playing their best".."the only way they lose is if they beat themselves" (or something to that effect)

Ugh.

Exact same bullcrap you hear about Alabama losing to Utah. Every time a top team loses, it's because the other team wanted it more or some such nonsense. Confirmation bias at its best.

[jipops]

The rankings are neither good nor bad, mostly meaningless. I say mostly b/c this could eventually have some effect on the seedings in the tournament later on, or it may not.

I agree with Bilas, UNC is still the best team. It's a very easy argument to make. I still don't think it's all that close, even after last night. Every team loses one eventually, even Duke's best teams in '92, '99, and '01 (which I would say were a bit better than the '09 heels) lost a few. Lucky for BC last night, the heel's coach has a bit of an issue with preparation at times (e.g. Kansas). Don't look for that to happen too often though.

[RelativeWays]

After last season, I don't think any Duke fan should be worried about our ranking in early January.

Its amazing how quick some of us forget too. These polls mean nothing at all when theres well over 2 months of basketball left to be played. I will be quite pleased if we rank in the top 5 in the final poll though.

[RelativeWays]

Jay Bilas, regardless of his Duke pedigree, is a sports analyst and is going to regurgitate the same drek we hear from every other sports analyst when it comes to the messiah team du jour, whether thats UNC, the Patriots, Florida or yes, even us.

To be fair, UNC has the most impressive resume thus far, they did blast ND and Michigan State, both ranked teams, and they've taken care of most of their business in orderly fashion. You can make an argument that UNC is the still the best overall team, despite the slip in conference play (and it happens to the best in the ACC). Pitt is real close though and I think I'd rank them 1 right now and possibly UNC 2 or 3. Wake has played nobody and it would not surprise me in the least to see UNC shred them like classified documents.

[hq2]

I don't think we should ever have been ranked lower than 4th, actually. Unlike last year's team, which wore out down the stretch due to lack of size, I think this team will keep getting better. Both Smith and Zoubeck are improving, and the bench is contributing more. That should take some of the pressure off of Singler, Scheyer, and Henderson, and keep them fresh down the stretch. I strongly believe we are well positioned to make a final four, even championship run this year, just like the '86 team, which this team strongly resembles.

[Troublemaker]

Neither good nor bad. Honestly, with the "next game" focus that athletes have been trained to have plus the busy school/practice schedule that they endure, I'd be surprised if our players were even aware of our ranking unless a media member or classmate told them.

Certainly they don't care about it.

[eddiehaskell]

Is Carolina's resume much better than Duke's? Duke pretty much blasted Xavier and Purdue while blowing out their first conference opponent. IMO, their loss was to a better team (Michigan > BC).

With a win tomorrow, Duke will add another quality victory to their resume (Davidson).

Speaking of quality, I believe WF is the team most in need of a quality win. They're ranked #4 and the best team they've played is #24 Baylor. The UNC game will tell us how good WF really is. I can't wait!