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NYC Duke Fan
12-28-2008, 05:13 AM
A good friend of mine played basketball at Seton Hall under Bill Raftery and has remaind good friends with him for many years. I had the occaision to have dinner with them and I thought that I would pass along an interesting point that was made.

The basketball analysts are comparing this year's UNC team to the the Florida team that repeated as National Champion , ( the Noah, Horford, Brewer team ), not player for player, but the fact that they believe that UNC will be National Champs this year without very much competition. They think that they are head and shoulders above the rest, much as they thought that the Florida team was easily the best team the year that they repeated. They would have been very surprised had Florida not repeated and would be very surprised if UNC does not win this year.

That is not to say that UNC will not lose a game this year, but when it comes to the tournament they see no team beating them.

The analysts that he was referreing to include Jim Nantz, Clark Kellog, Dickie V, Jay Bilas, Vern Lundquist, Dan Bonner, Tom Brennen, etc.

This is just their opinion and I'm sure that your opinion is just as valid as theirs...noone has a crystal ball.

Incidentally, the only other time that , " analysts " , thought this way was with Duke the year that they lost to UCONN in the final. They were very surprised that Duke did not win the tournament because it was felt that Duke had unquestionably the best team.

Raftery loves Coach K and likes this year's Duke team but does not think that it can win the tournament..too inconsistent to win 6 games in a row....once again only one man's opinion

dukelifer
12-28-2008, 07:50 AM
A good friend of mine played basketball at Seton Hall under Bill Raftery and has remaind good friends with him for many years. I had the occaision to have dinner with them and I thought that I would pass along an interesting point that was made.

The basketball analysts are comparing this year's UNC team to the the Florida team that repeated as National Champion , ( the Noah, Horford, Brewer team ), not player for player, but the fact that they believe that UNC will be National Champs this year without very much competition. They think that they are head and shoulders above the rest, much as they thought that the Florida team was easily the best team the year that they repeated. They would have been very surprised had Florida not repeated and would be very surprised if UNC does not win this year.

That is not to say that UNC will not lose a game this year, but when it comes to the tournament they see no team beating them.

The analysts that he was referreing to include Jim Nantz, Clark Kellog, Dickie V, Jay Bilas, Vern Lundquist, Dan Bonner, Tom Brennen, etc.

This is just their opinion and I'm sure that your opinion is just as valid as theirs...noone has a crystal ball.

Incidentally, the only other time that , " analysts " , thought this way was with Duke the year that they lost to UCONN in the final. They were very surprised that Duke did not win the tournament because it was felt that Duke had unquestionably the best team.

Raftery loves Coach K and likes this year's Duke team but does not think that it can win the tournament..too inconsistent to win 6 games in a row....once again only one man's opinion

The big difference is that Florida had won it all the year before. This UNC team has struggled in the big games in the past two years. The pressure will be huge on this team. They should make it to the final four- but once there who knows. Talent is not the question here- it is the ability to use that talent when the pressure is on.

It is also way too early to make those sorts of predictions. If, for example, Lawson sprains another ankle come March- UNC is not the same team.Right now- UNC looks to be the top dog. There is a lot of basketball to be played to determine 1) which team is at full strength come March after a long conference schedule and 2) which team handles the pressure.

roywhite
12-28-2008, 08:17 AM
Remarkable how often conventional wisdom on such matters turns out to be wrong.

A recent example: New England Patriots losing the Super Bowl to the Giants.

NYC Duke Fan
12-28-2008, 09:16 AM
Remarkable how often conventional wisdom on such matters turns out to be wrong.

A recent example: New England Patriots losing the Super Bowl to the Giants.

You are absolutely correct and I was thinking about that when I posted.

NYC Duke Fan
12-28-2008, 09:17 AM
The big difference is that Florida had won it all the year before. This UNC team has struggled in the big games in the past two years. The pressure will be huge on this team. They should make it to the final four- but once there who knows. Talent is not the question here- it is the ability to use that talent when the pressure is on.

It is also way too early to make those sorts of predictions. If, for example, Lawson sprains another ankle come March- UNC is not the same team.Right now- UNC looks to be the top dog. There is a lot of basketball to be played to determine 1) which team is at full strength come March after a long conference schedule and 2) which team handles the pressure.

Obviously injuries would change their minds.

sagegrouse
12-28-2008, 09:45 AM
I agree that UNC is tres formidable this year. But it is only December. And the reason they play the games is to find out who wins. (I hope this discussion isn't too complicated.)

Then there was the 1984 UNC team. It was Michael Jordan's last year and his teammates included Sam Perkins, Brad Daugherty, Kenny Smith, Joe Wolf, and Matt Doherty. It looked unbeatable and was -- early in the season --but lost to Duke in the ACC semis and lost to Indiana in the Sweet Sixteen. And then there were the Duke teams in 1986, 1999 (cited above), and 2002. And UNLV in 1991.

So, we'll see. I look forward to three (or four) Duke-UNC games.

sagegrouse

Bob Green
12-28-2008, 01:48 PM
This UNC team has struggled in the big games in the past two years.


So, we'll see. I look forward to three (or four) Duke-UNC games.

I like the result when these two thoughts are combined. UNC struggles in a big NCAA tournament game losing to Duke. :)

throatybeard
12-28-2008, 03:34 PM
I think my metric for a successful season would be if we went more than 5 minutes without multiple threads about UNC Men's basketball on the 1st couple pages of the board.

Jumbo
12-28-2008, 06:15 PM
Is there a reason why basically every thread you start (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/search.php?searchid=415352) has something to do with Carolina? And the ones that don't have Carolina in the title usually talk about another school (GT, UConn, etc.) or address Duke only in a roundabout way where the basketball or football team/coach is being compared to another school's team/coach. Well, except for your one thread warning us after five games that we had nothing to be excited about. I don't get it.

RainingThrees
12-28-2008, 06:34 PM
Heres how I compare them....I hate them both. Florida more for football and the Heels because they're heels.

RelativeWays
12-28-2008, 06:48 PM
If Tim Tebow played PF/center for the Gators during those years, you could compare them to UNC pretty favorably.

NYC Duke Fan
12-28-2008, 08:12 PM
Is there a reason why basically every thread you start (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/search.php?searchid=415352) has something to do with Carolina? And the ones that don't have Carolina in the title usually talk about another school (GT, UConn, etc.) or address Duke only in a roundabout way where the basketball or football team/coach is being compared to another school's team/coach. Well, except for your one thread warning us after five games that we had nothing to be excited about. I don't get it.

There is nothing to , " get ". I am not on this Board as much as most and virtually all of the things that I might say about Duke basketball have already been said by others and I am not one to just say ," I agree".

I thought that this thread was interesting. If it were my opinion I never would have posted it, but since it came from a respected basketball person, I thought it might be interesting. You disagree and I respect your right to disagree.

Maybe if I spent many many more hours on this Board I would have more to say regarding Duke basketball, but unfortuneately my work and family committments does not allow it.

Jumbo
12-28-2008, 08:32 PM
There is nothing to , " get ". I am not on this Board as much as most and virtually all of the things that I might say about Duke basketball have already been said by others and I am not one to just say ," I agree".

I thought that this thread was interesting. If it were my opinion I never would have posted it, but since it came from a respected basketball person, I thought it might be interesting. You disagree and I respect your right to disagree.

Maybe if I spent many many more hours on this Board I would have more to say regarding Duke basketball, but unfortuneately my work and family committments does not allow it.

So, you don't have enough time to come to a Duke board and post about Duke basketball. You do have enough time, however, to come to a Duke board and repeatedly post about Carolina and other schools. Got it.

-bdbd
12-28-2008, 08:34 PM
What was special about FL a few years ago was the "repeat" status. Obviously, speaking to the high expectations from the media that second year... well, er, they had just WON a National Championship and had essentially everyone coming back. This kerlina team has won nothing to date and still has lots to prove. All that said, they DO have a lot of stockpiled talent there and so I personally enjoy the pressure and expectations this places on them. I have boundless faith in their ability to choke, despite the talent. (BTW, NCAA B-ball is just too competitive to take one team over "the field.")

-BDBD ;)

jimsumner
12-28-2008, 09:42 PM
Is this year's UNC team more likely to win the NCAA title than any other team?
Yes.

Is this year's UNC team more likely to win the NCAA title than every other team?

No.

That's a big difference and one that I'm pretty sure Jay Bilas, Jim Nantz et. al. understand quite well. No one team is "likely" to win the NCAA title, certainly not in December. No team is close to even money against the field. Too much talent, too many variables.

DukieGator
12-28-2008, 09:43 PM
Is there a reason why basically every thread you start (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/search.php?searchid=415352) has something to do with Carolina? And the ones that don't have Carolina in the title usually talk about another school (GT, UConn, etc.) or address Duke only in a roundabout way where the basketball or football team/coach is being compared to another school's team/coach. Well, except for your one thread warning us after five games that we had nothing to be excited about. I don't get it.

You know, you're not required to read the threads you're not interested in.

FWIW, as a fan of college basketball in general (I don't restrict my attention to Duke only), I found the original post interesting. But I agreed with the above posters who pointed out the flaws in Raftery et al's argument.

jimsumner
12-28-2008, 10:32 PM
"You know, you're not required to read the threads you're not interested in."

Actually, Jumbo's a moderator. So, I think he is required.

77devil
12-28-2008, 10:53 PM
So, you don't have enough time to come to a Duke board and post about Duke basketball. You do have enough time, however, to come to a Duke board and repeatedly post about Carolina and other schools. Got it.

A bit more kinder/gentler is in order IMO. The first post could have been made offline.

Newton_14
12-28-2008, 11:28 PM
Call me crazy or call it wishful thinking.. but here is my view on this. unx basically has the same team for the 3rd straight year.. Older and wiser of course and you have to factor that in. This year they replaced Q Thomas with B Frasor, and Stephenson with Davis.

What they are doing so far and what I am hearing from all my tarhole friends is a carbon copy of last March. Last March in Raleigh everyone I know was crowning them champions. They killed everyone all the way up to the Kansas game. hansblahwalk was dominant, Ty Lawless was at the top of his game and by halftime the games were routs.. Then the unbeatable team with all that talent got blown out twice in the same game. 40 to 12???

Fast forward 9 months and once again basically the same core guys are doing it again. They have played a grand total of 2 top 30 teams. They beat a very tired Notre Dame team and they embarrased Michigan State which is their best win so far. But they really have not played a top caliber team with fresh legs yet.

They were also down big in several games last year against Duke, Clemson twice, and Boston College, and of course Kansas...Have you ever seen a "great" team fall 15+ points behind in multiple games? Or 28? Did that Florida team fall 20 points behind any opponent in those 2 years?

How will they respond in a tight game against a tough defensive opponent with everything on the line??? To date those guys have failed that test when on the biggest stage of all.. They have one last chance and this time the pressure is much greater because it is their last chance and the whole world has already crowned them champs in December...

We will see...

CameronCrazy'11
12-29-2008, 12:44 AM
Call me crazy or call it wishful thinking.. but here is my view on this. unx basically has the same team for the 3rd straight year.. Older and wiser of course and you have to factor that in. This year they replaced Q Thomas with B Frasor, and Stephenson with Davis.

What they are doing so far and what I am hearing from all my tarhole friends is a carbon copy of last March. Last March in Raleigh everyone I know was crowning them champions. They killed everyone all the way up to the Kansas game. hansblahwalk was dominant, Ty Lawless was at the top of his game and by halftime the games were routs.. Then the unbeatable team with all that talent got blown out twice in the same game. 40 to 12???

Fast forward 9 months and once again basically the same core guys are doing it again. They have played a grand total of 2 top 30 teams. They beat a very tired Notre Dame team and they embarrased Michigan State which is their best win so far. But they really have not played a top caliber team with fresh legs yet.

They were also down big in several games last year against Duke, Clemson twice, and Boston College, and of course Kansas...Have you ever seen a "great" team fall 15+ points behind in multiple games? Or 28? Did that Florida team fall 20 points behind any opponent in those 2 years?

How will they respond in a tight game against a tough defensive opponent with everything on the line??? To date those guys have failed that test when on the biggest stage of all.. They have one last chance and this time the pressure is much greater because it is their last chance and the whole world has already crowned them champs in December...

We will see...

This is what the entire sports world seems to be ignoring. Was Carolina that much better than Duke last year? We were 3 minutes away from winning the ACC regular season before they pulled it off. I'm sure Carolina is better this year, but Duke is a lot better as well. The only reason Carolina is supposed to be so dominant this year is that most of the other top teams (Kansas, Memphis, UCLA, Texas) lost a lot.

I know that no sportswriters want to go against conventional wisdom and say that maybe Carolina isn't that much better than everyone else. If Carolina keeps winning then you look like a fool, and if they start losing, then everyone else was just as wrong as you were.

NYC Duke Fan
12-29-2008, 06:30 AM
So, you don't have enough time to come to a Duke board and post about Duke basketball. You do have enough time, however, to come to a Duke board and repeatedly post about Carolina and other schools. Got it.

My knowledge of Duke basketball is not as astute as yours or many others on this Board. As a result, I very rarely answer the threads as I have nothing to intelligently add. I do post to ask questions that I do not know the answers to and start a thread that I think might be of interest, even though you think not and I respect your opinion.

I am never nasty or sarcastic, at least I hope not, and am respectful of other's opinions. I am not a Duke graduate but did send 2 children to Duke,;one continued on to medical school at Duke as well.I enjoy Duke basketball and my 2 children and I when we get a chance, watch the games together.

I am not happy when Duke loses but it is not my life and treat the same as only a basketball game ...nothing else

I thought, and maybe I am mistakem, that these sports boards are for fun and are not to be taken so seriously.

As a moderator, if you feel that I should no longer post than I will refrain from doing so

roywhite
12-29-2008, 09:57 AM
My knowledge of Duke basketball is not as astute as yours or many others on this Board. As a result, I very rarely answer the threads as I have nothing to intelligently add. I do post to ask questions that I do not know the answers to and start a thread that I think might be of interest, even though you think not and I respect your opinion.

I am never nasty or sarcastic, at least I hope not, and am respectful of other's opinions. I am not a Duke graduate but did send 2 children to Duke,;one continued on to medical school at Duke as well.I enjoy Duke basketball and my 2 children and I when we get a chance, watch the games together.

I am not happy when Duke loses but it is not my life and treat the same as only a basketball game ...nothing else

I thought, and maybe I am mistakem, that these sports boards are for fun and are not to be taken so seriously.

As a moderator, if you feel that I should no longer post than I will refrain from doing so

Glad you're here and hope you continue to visit and post.

The sarcasm you received was unwarranted IMO.

sagegrouse
12-29-2008, 10:16 AM
My knowledge of Duke basketball is not as astute as yours or many others on this Board. As a result, I very rarely answer the threads as I have nothing to intelligently add. I do post to ask questions that I do not know the answers to and start a thread that I think might be of interest, even though you think not and I respect your opinion.

I am never nasty or sarcastic, at least I hope not, and am respectful of other's opinions. I am not a Duke graduate but did send 2 children to Duke,;one continued on to medical school at Duke as well.I enjoy Duke basketball and my 2 children and I when we get a chance, watch the games together.

I am not happy when Duke loses but it is not my life and treat the same as only a basketball game ...nothing else

I thought, and maybe I am mistakem, that these sports boards are for fun and are not to be taken so seriously.

As a moderator, if you feel that I should no longer post than I will refrain from doing so

The Moderator asked a good question about your posting habits. Your answer was clear and sensible. The rejoinder was uncalled for.

Keep on posting--

sagegrouse

gw67
12-29-2008, 10:44 AM
I thought the original post provided an interesting perspective by folks who are around the game. All he was pointing out was that many of the play-by-play and color men felt that there is a big gap between the Heels and the rest of the competition this year. I don't feel that way but I certainly felt that way about the Dawkins/Alarie and Brand/Langdom teams as did many in the media. Besides, they aren't all geniuses. Lavin was giving out grades to conferences for their play to date and he puffed up the Big East and Big Ten (those teams we beat every year) while being luke warm toward the ACC.

gw67

Turtleboy
12-29-2008, 11:57 AM
Actually, Jumbo's a moderator. So, I think he is required.Really? He's required to read every thread he's not interested in?

Bob Green
12-29-2008, 12:03 PM
Really? He's required to read every thread he's not interested in?

It is pretty hard to moderate the board if you don't read all the threads. Therefore, us moderators read all the threads no matter our individual interest level in the topic being discussed.

Turtleboy
12-29-2008, 12:13 PM
It is pretty hard to moderate the board if you don't read all the threads. Therefore, us moderators read all the threads no matter our individual interest level in the topic being discussed.Couldn't you divide up the labor a bit?

-jk
12-29-2008, 05:18 PM
Couldn't you divide up the labor a bit?

Unfortunately, not much. We all have personal lives, and the rest read pretty much all the posts. It's a labor of love - most of the time. We have to deal with all the posts, both good and bad. Please give us the benefit of the doubt. We're trying to maintain a standard that's a bit higher than average on the interweb.

Thanks,

- jk

jimsumner
12-29-2008, 07:19 PM
"We're trying to maintain a standard that's a bit higher than average on the interweb."

Do tell. If you think this place gets a bit snarky at times, you ought to look at some other message boards out there. Think Thunderdome, without the good manners.

ice-9
12-30-2008, 01:03 AM
Unfortunately, not much. We all have personal lives, and the rest read pretty much all the posts. It's a labor of love - most of the time. We have to deal with all the posts, both good and bad. Please give us the benefit of the doubt. We're trying to maintain a standard that's a bit higher than average on the interweb.

Thanks,

- jk


Cheers for reaching and maintaining that standard -- reading/posting to this board is a pleasure.

Turtleboy
12-30-2008, 03:47 PM
Unfortunately, not much. We all have personal lives, and the rest read pretty much all the posts.I'm probably missing something here, but if your labor resources are limited, how is having everybody do everything less of a strain on them?



It's a labor of love - most of the time. We have to deal with all the posts, both good and bad. Please give us the benefit of the doubt. We're trying to maintain a standard that's a bit higher than average on the interweb.I'd say you have passed that bar by a few orders of magnitude.

bird
12-31-2008, 01:59 PM
Back to topic, this interesting article names Duke as one of three teams that has the best chance to beat Carolina this year; the other two? Oklahoma and Gonzaga.

http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=488

(I don't mind talking about Carolina here. In fact, I don't mind talking up Carolina here. Our best strategy is to beat Carolina. Our second best strategy, I think, is to wholly agree that Carolina is so good that the only measure for a successful season is a National Championship. If Carolina falls short, even if they go deeper than Duke, we can claim the more successful season, all things considered. If Carolina wins it all, we can dismiss it as being expected, boring, yada yada.)