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gw67
12-26-2008, 10:26 AM
It is about a week before ACC play begins in earnest and Jumbo provides his thoughts on Phase III of the Devils’ season. As both a Duke and ACC fan, I thought that I would provide some thoughts on the play of conference teams to date.
· I expected the ACC to be stronger this year and, so far, it has been. ACC teams are 107-23 and are the top rated conference in RPI, Sagarin and Pomeroy. The RPI needs to shake out when conference play begins but it is the one used by the NCAAT selection folks and currently, 8 ACC teams are in the top 32.
· The surprise teams have been Florida State and Maryland, and, to some extent, Clemson. If either the Noles or Terps finishes in the top half of the conference and makes the NCAAT, their coach deserves COY in ACC. The Tigers were expected to be good but not this good after losing two key players. The disappointments have been Virginia Tech and Miami. Based on the end of last year, they looked like they were ready to battle for third place in the conference. Miami looks like a 5th or 6th place team and Tech will be lucky to make the NCAAT.
· The top players appear to be Lawson, Hansbrough, Singler, Teague and Lawal. The first three should wind up as first team All ACC while Teague and Lawal will need to play at a high level in ACC play to ward off Rice, Rivers, Vasquez, McClinton, Douglas, Scheyer, Vassallo, Booker and a host of others.
· The 08 freshmen class was thought to be ordinary and, so far, that appears to be the case in the ACC. Landesberg and Zeglinski are nice players and are having good years on a weak Virginia team. I suspect that Williams of Duke would start at Virginia and score in double figures. Aminu of Wake is probably the most talented of the freshmen and he is averaging 12.5 ppg and 9.0 rpg on a strong Wake team. Shumpert of Georgia Tech appears to have some potential and is among conference leaders in assists and is averaging in double figures for a very thin team. There are no other freshmen averaging in double figures although Singleton of the Noles is starting and playing well and Davis of UNC is playing well in a backup role. Zeller of UNC appeared to be a very good player before he was injured.
· The most unsung player in the conference is McFarland of Wake. Not only has he held off two highly rated freshmen to continue to start but he is averaging 10.4 ppg and 6.7 rpg on a very good team. Aminu of Georgia Tech is having a good senior season.

Some surprising stats:

· The Heels are considered a good shooting team and so far they are shooting 51%. Wake and Clemson are not considered good shooting teams by many but they are shooting 52% and 50%, respectively.
· Don’t foul the Terps! Maryland is the worst team in the ACC shooting from the field; however, they lead the ACC in foul shooting at 80%. The worst foul shooter in their starting line-up is shooting 79%.
· The Devils are not thought of as a strong rebounding team but they are outrebounding the opposition by nearly 10 a game which ranks second in the ACC.
· The Heels are often put down as a defensive team but they are averaging over 11 steals a game to lead the conference.
· Lawson leads the ACC in assists per game but, more importantly has an assist/turnover ratio of nearly 5 which is amazing in their high tempo offense.

gw67

Faison1
12-26-2008, 12:21 PM
Thanks for that! A couple things jump out....

I am encouraged by Duke's performance on the boards, and hope they can keep it up against the likes of Clemson, FSU, and Wake, not to mention UNC (have any of Duke's opponents so far this year been considered strong rebounding teams?).

In most league projections, Duke is picked to finish second, but I am VERY concerned about Wake pushing Duke for that spot. They seem to have all the necessary pieces to challenge. If Wake can somehow convince the team (frosh) to stick around for next year, I think they have a chance to go far (assuming the coaching is good).

I also hope that G challenges for a higher spot on the All-ACC team....I think he still has a chance, and I am rooting hard for him every game. I'm sure he is feeling the pressure, but he seems to be such a good guy, so I hope he will succeed.

jv001
12-26-2008, 01:56 PM
There is a lot of time left for Jon, Gerald and Kyle to make their moves in acquiring league honors. So far all are playing at high levels. Gerald being the most recent one to reach that level. Nolan & Brian are improving as well. If the team as a whole reaches the potential anything is possible. This team is talented and well coached. Everyone has crowned unc the winner but the games still have to be played. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the season. Go Duke!

Lavabe
12-26-2008, 02:54 PM
Some surprising stats:

· The Heels are considered a good shooting team and so far they are shooting 51%. Wake and Clemson are not considered good shooting teams by many but they are shooting 52% and 50%, respectively.
· Don’t foul the Terps! Maryland is the worst team in the ACC shooting from the field; however, they lead the ACC in foul shooting at 80%. The worst foul shooter in their starting line-up is shooting 79%.
· The Devils are not thought of as a strong rebounding team but they are outrebounding the opposition by nearly 10 a game which ranks second in the ACC.
· The Heels are often put down as a defensive team but they are averaging over 11 steals a game to lead the conference.
· Lawson leads the ACC in assists per game but, more importantly has an assist/turnover ratio of nearly 5 which is amazing in their high tempo offense.

gw67

Nice post. I do, however, wonder about relying on some of these stats so early in the season. I would imagine that some of these stats are skewed by initial schedule.

gw67
12-26-2008, 04:47 PM
Lavabe - I certainly agree that a big and important chunk of the season needs to be played but I think most of my thoughts will hold up. The stats that I listed were those that were most surprising to me and they may be subject to major changes. I will be surprised if neither UNC nor the Devils win the regular season and if more that two players from any team make the three team All ACC.

gw67

duketaylor
12-27-2008, 12:25 AM
I agree that it would be a huge surprise if unc and Duke don't finish in the top two. I will be surprised if neither team has two players on the 1st team all-ACC, with unc much more likely to land Hansblahblah and either (likely) Lawson, or (possibly) Ellington, while Duke could land Singler or Scheyer or Paulus or G (if he comes around as expected). I would think Kyle's the most likely candidate, but Jon could well be there as well.
Unfortunately, I've seen very little hoops so far, but that should change soon;)