Charting Duke vs. Xavier

[Jumbo]

A fantastic performance by Duke's regular rotation -- particularly the starters -- manifested itself in the plus/minus stats. Scheyer, G, Zoubs, Singler; everyone was fantastic. What more can you say about their effort? On the negative side, the end-of-the-bench guys have poor numbers, but really didn't play enough for that to matter. The one true disappointment was Elliot Williams, who got into the game briefly in the first half, looked a little lost, and then struggled in hte second half, too. In fact, he was a member of every lineup combo that posted a negative plus/minus. Anyway, on to the numbers ...

Individuals
Jon Scheyer 73-48 (+25)
Gerald Henderson 74-51 (+23)
Brian Zoubek 43-20 (+23)
Kyle Singler 69-48 (+21)
Dave McClure 24-12 (+12)
Nolan Smith 35-25 (+10)
Greg Paulus 47-39 (+8)
Lance Thomas 30-28 (+2)
Marty Pocius 0-6 (-6)
Olek Czyz 0-6 (-6)
Miles Plumlee 2-10 (-8)
Elliot Williams 13-27 (-14)

Per 40 Minutes

Brian Zoubek +51.1
Dave McClure +40
Jon Scheyer +32.3
Gerald Henderson +27.9
Kyle Singler +26.3
Nolan Smith +25
Greg Paulus +13.3
Lance Thomas +5.3
Elliot Williams -50.9
Miles Plumlee -80
Marty Pocius -120
Olek Czyz -120

Lineups

Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek (x3) 19-13 (+6)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Zoubek (x3) 9-3 (+6)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x2) 10-6 (+4)
Smith-Scheyer-Henderson-Singler-Thomas (x2) 9-5 (+4)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Zoubek 6-2 (+4)
Smith-Henderson-McClure-Singler-Zoubek 5-1 (+4)
Paulus-Scheyer-McClure-Singler-Zoubek (x2) 4-1 (+3)
Paulus-Scheyer-Henderson-McClure-Singler 7-6 (+1)
Paulus-Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-Thomas 3-2 (+1)
Smith-Henderson-McClure-Singler-Thomas 0-0 (0)
Paulus-Pocius-Williams-Henderson-Plumlee 0-0 (0)
Paulus-Scheyer-Williams-McClure-Thomas 2-2 (0)
Paulus-Williams-Henderson-Singler-Thomas 2-3 (-1)
Paulus-Scheyer-Williams-Singler-Thomas 2-4 (-2)
Paulus-Scheyer-Williams-Henderson-Plumlee 2-4 (-2)
Smith-Williams-Henderson-Singler-Thomas 2-6 (-4)
Paulus-Pocius-Williams-Czyz-Plumlee 0-6 (-6)

[mgtr]

Interestingly, almost everyone agreed that Scheyer was the man against Xavier, and Jumbo's data show its true. Every lineup with a score > 0 (except one) included Scheyer. Pretty conclusive, in my view.

[Wander]

Interestingly, almost everyone agreed that Scheyer was the man against Xavier, and Jumbo's data show its true. Every lineup with a score > 0 (except one) included Scheyer. Pretty conclusive, in my view.

But Zoubek was part of zero lineups with a score < +3. He was Hasheem Thabeet-like in his presence in that game, I couldn't believe it.

[jv001]

Your numbers just confirm my thoughts on Williams play in this game. He has a wealth of talent, but just seems to be thinking too much. I look forward to the day that it just clicks for him. Like I said he is extremely talented. Jumbo thanks for your work on the numers. Go Duke!

[CameronBornAndBred]

Interesting to see that when Henderson is replaced with Czyz in the Paulus-Williams-Plumlee-Pocius set, the numbers go from 0 to -6. I'm thinking that of course speaks much more to Gerald's value than Olek's lessening, but that's a big drop for a one player swap.

[pfrduke]

Interesting to see that when Henderson is replaced with Czyz in the Paulus-Williams-Plumlee-Pocius set, the numbers go from 0 to -6. I'm thinking that of course speaks much more to Gerald's value than Olek's lessening, but that's a big drop for a one player swap.

Don't read too much into this stuff. The "-6" for Olek was because Xavier happened to hit two garbage time threes in two possessions, and Duke didn't score in two possessions. This is much more attributable to random noise/chance than to any meaningful talent disparity. Any five players can get outscored 6-0 by any opposing team over a two possession stretch, and it's not hugely meaningful in terms of identifying which players may be more valuable than others.

The big tell from our +/- this year has been how consistently our starting five occupies the top 5 spots. The distribution of minutes this season has matched the +/- very, very well.

[pfrduke]

But Zoubek was part of zero lineups with a score < +3. He was Hasheem Thabeet-like in his presence in that game, I couldn't believe it.

Word. Certainly this isn't 100% attributable to Zoubek, but the team's defense was markedly different with him on the court than with him off. He played 33 defensive possessions, during which Xavier scored 20 points - a stellar 60.61 defensive rating. In the 34 possessions when he was on the bench, Xavier scored 44 points - a far less than stellar 129.41 defensive rating. Again, it's not entirely attributable to him, but he was certainly a strong defensive presence in the post - possibly the best defensive game he's played at Duke.

[jv001]

Word. Certainly this isn't 100% attributable to Zoubek, but the team's defense was markedly different with him on the court than with him off. He played 33 defensive possessions, during which Xavier scored 20 points - a stellar 60.61 defensive rating. In the 34 possessions when he was on the bench, Xavier scored 44 points - a far less than stellar 129.41 defensive rating. Again, it's not entirely attributable to him, but he was certainly a strong defensive presence in the post - possibly the best defensive game he's played at Duke.

Good observation regarding Zoubek and I think our defense is always better when Zoubs is in the lineup. When healthy he can really disrupt things for our opponents. Let's just hope and pray he stays heathy because I think we will see more improvement from Big Z. Go Duke!

[CameronBornAndBred]

Good observation regarding Zoubek and I think our defense is always better when Zoubs is in the lineup. When healthy he can really disrupt things for our opponents. Let's just hope and pray he stays heathy because I think we will see more improvement from Big Z. Go Duke!
Seeing him take the charge was beautiful. He's impoved his defensive game a lot. He's avoiding the fouls that plagued him previously, while still attacking the ball agressively. He's a smart player, and has become an asset over the liability he was in the past. If he ever gets control of his hands he will be awesome.

[Indoor66]

If he ever gets control of his hands he will be awesome.

Where do you get that he has bad hands? In fact, he is sure-handed.