SEC is Down this Year

[gw67]

Tennessee lost today by 16 points to powerhouse, Temple. The result is that the Vols are now the highest rated SEC team in the RPI at 40th. The conference is rated 8th among conferences and only Tennessee and Florida appear to be NCAAT-quality teams at this point in the season.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_sec_Men.html

gw67

[Bob Green]

The PAC 10 is also weak. During the Memphis - Georgetown game, CBS put up a graphic showing the PAC 10 being 0 - 8 against Top 25 competition so far this season.

The question is how will it play out in regard to Big Dance invitations? Will the other BCS Conferences benefit or will we see more Mid-Majors? The season is young but the drama is already building.

[JasonEvans]

There may only be 2 deserving teams from the SEC, but more than that will make it because one or two other teams will get gaudy records by beating up on everyone else in the league. Unless the SEC somehow figures out a way to have almost everyone go .500 in the conference, there will be a couple teams (in addition to Fla and Tenn) that find a way to be 9-7 or even 10-6 in the league and will get a bid as a result.

I mean, someone has to win the SEC West, right? Whoever that is will get a bid.

Meanwhile, the announcers cannot stop talking about how great the Big East is. They constantly talk about how many great teams there are in that league. I agree that there are a lot of quality teams and it is impressive, the thing that no one comments upon is the that Big East is loaded with lots of really bad teams and that it just plain has a ton of teams. 16 teams!!! If they get 8 bids, that is like the ACC getting 6 bids... which could happen this year.

The 6th place team in the ACC in the Sagarin rankings is Mioami at #29. The 8th place team in the Big East is Louisville at #32. Of course, as I mentioned about the bottom, the big difference comes from the fact that the ACC has one team ranked outside the top 100 (Virginia) while the Big East has 3 outside the top 100 and 2 others who are in the 90s.

-- Jason "Ahh well. Whatever" Evans

[davekay1971]

ACC is the best, obviously. We just need to prove it in March...which we haven't done the last few years.

[RelativeWays]

I'm pretty sure the Big East is better than the ACC as far as depth of talent right now and I think the Big 12 could equal or surpass the ACC. But, its December and teams change so much from now to much its almost like two different seasons. Its hard to put too much stock in what happens now. Sure Kansas loses to UMass at Allen Field House, but who knows how good they'll be in March?

[gw67]

The Big 12 may turn things around but as of now they are 4th rated conference in RPI, 4th in Sagarin and 4th in Pomeroy. The ACC is the top rated conference in each of these rating systems. IMO, the record and rating of a conference in the OOC portion of the season is important for entry as well as placement in the NCAAT. It serves as a base and impacts the SOS for each of the teams during the second half of the season. Whether the ACC gets 4 or 6 teams not only is dependent on the conference records but the SOS and out-of-conference play for each of the teams.

gw67

[Olympic Fan]

Just visited Jerry Palm's site. The RPI has the ACC as the No. 1 conference, the Big Ten No. 2 and the Big East No. 3. The ACC has the best OOC winning percentage (82.5 vs. Division 1 competition) and the best record against other BCS leagues (19-12 vs. 15-12 for the Big East).

Pomeroy also ranks the ACC No. 1 and the Big East No. 3.

In terms of individual rankings, it's odd ... and also evidence that it's still a bit too early to put much weight on the RPI at this point (the conference RPIs are also early, but a bit more valid because there is a larger sample size).

As it stands Sunday morning, Dec. 14:

ACC Big East
2. Clemson
5. Pitt
7. Duke
8. Syracuse
11. UConn
13. Georgetown
14. Florida State
16. North Carolina
20. Miami
22. Maryland
34. West Virginia
43. Wake Forest
45. Boston College
53. Villanova
56. Seton Hall
57. Louisville
59. Cincinnati
61. Notre Dame
71. Virginia
77. Virginia Tech
81. Georgia Tech
95. Marquette
102. Providence
119. DePaul
128. St. John's
139. Rutgers
175. South Florida
214. NC State

Obviously, there are some strange placements -- UNC and UConn are too low ... Notre Dame at 61? Marquette at 95?

Pomeroy has seven ACC teams in the top 42. He has eight Big East teams in the top 42 ... interesting, he has Marquette at No. 81, so maybe the RPI rating of the Warriors isn't that crazy.

As I said, too early to give these rankings much weight, but it's worth noting that the NCAA at-large cutoff is usually around 43-46 (65 bids, but 31 go to automatic conference champions, which includes 8-12 teams in the top 43-46).

If the selection were based on today's RPI, the ACC would have six sure picks and two borderline. The Big East would have five picks -- period.

If it were based on Pomeroy, the ACC would get seven and the Big East 8.

I don't think those are valid projections, obviously.

My point is that when you start talking about the Big East getting 9-10-or more picks, you have to justify it. You CAN'T base that on performance in the league if the league does not justify its lofty ranking outside the conference. Right now, it's not doing that. There's no evidence -- SO FAR -- that the Big East is the strongest conference in the last 30 years (as Dick Vitale recently proclaimed). In fact, there's no evidence right now that it's even the best conference this year.

Some of those supposedly great teams are pretty suspect -- certainly Marquette, but also Notre Dame, Louisville and Villanova. Yes, the Big East has some legitimately strong teams (Pitt and UConn for sure) -- but it also has an equal measure of mediocre and poor ones.

As for the Big 12 ... it recently completed a 10-game Challenge against the weak Pac 10 -- it ended in a 5-5 tie. I think Oklahoma and Texas are very strong, while Baylor and Missouri are decent -- but those are the only Big 12 teams currently ranked in the top 50. They have just as many teams that aren't in the top 100.

[Wander]

The strength of the Big East is in its 2nd tier. The 2nd tier of teams in the Big East blows away the 2nd tier in any other conference, which is why the BE is the best conference this year.

The RPI isn't even worth mentioning at this point.

[Johnboy]

The strength of the Big East is in its 2nd tier. The 2nd tier of teams in the Big East blows away the 2nd tier in any other conference, which is why the BE is the best conference this year.


Not according to Jason's post above:

Of course, as I mentioned about the bottom, the big difference comes from the fact that the ACC has one team ranked outside the top 100 (Virginia) while the Big East has 3 outside the top 100 and 2 others who are in the 90s.

[brevity]

The strength of the Big East is in its 2nd tier. The 2nd tier of teams in the Big East blows away the 2nd tier in any other conference, which is why the BE is the best conference this year.

I think this is a good way to explain why the Big East is perceived to be so good this year, and why some people (myself included) believe it could get more than 8 teams into the NCAA Tournament. Before the season started, there was a clear top tier of Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Louisville, and Notre Dame. But one could argue that Villanova, Marquette, Georgetown, Syracuse, and West Virginia might also be in or near the top 25. That's 9 teams.

Right now (December 14) there are 14 Big East teams with a record of 6-3 or better. That doesn't actually say all that much -- you might also notice that every Big 12 team and 11 ACC teams are over .500 -- but it tells me that it's far too early to see how the conferences will play out.

For example, Seton Hall and St. John's are both 8-1. Are they going to start losing like the 3rd (or 4th) tier Big East teams they were predicted to be? I have no idea. But you can imagine a situation where the Big East has about 6 definite tournament teams in February, and a lot more than 2 others on the bubble. And any talk about a down SEC and down Pac-10 only bolsters this argument.

[gw67]

The SEC is making strides. They are now 8th in RPI, and 6th in both Sagarin and Pomeroy.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkc0809.htm?loc=interstitialskip
http://www.kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2009&c=ACC&t=p

The ACC teams play 160 OOC games. They have played 102 OOC games so far so the ratings (1st in each of the three rating systems) are based on significant data. By the first week in January, the OOC part of the schedule for most teams will be complete and I expect the ACC, Big Ten and Big East to lead the way going into the regular conference seasons and for the PAC Ten and SEC to trail.

gw67

[hurleyfor3]

The dork polls are still unconnected, folks. Until they're connected all dorkpoll-based analysis is off.

[gw67]

hurley - I appreciate your point. I may be wrong but I don't believe that either RPI or Pomeroy have the initial bias that is in Sagarin. As more games are played, the initial bias plays a smaller role in Sagarin.

gw67

[hurleyfor3]

hurley - I appreciate your point. I may be wrong but I don't believe that either RPI or Pomeroy have the initial bias that is in Sagarin. As more games are played, the initial bias plays a smaller role in Sagarin.

gw67

I think Pomeroy "needs" a bias (a Baynesian "prior") but RPI does not because it just uses pure won-lost records. However, RPI is vastly inferior as a measure of ability.