Greg Oden

[tommy]

Raise your hand if you still think Greg Oden is going to be a great player in the NBA. I mean great like he was projected to be, not like the word is (over)used in sports in general these days.

I hope I'm wrong, because he seems like a very solid guy, and I know he hasn't played very many games, but I just don't see it. A guy with his size and power, with the athletic skill he shows in brief flashes, should be having a much bigger impact than he's having.

It was a decent debate in 2007 between Oden and Kevin Durant for the top pick in the draft. Right now, most teams (with the Blazers possibly being an exception due to their other personnel) would take Durant in a heartbeat. And looking at that draft in hindsight, what a stinker. The only starters at this point are Durant, Horford (drafted #3), Al Thornton (14), and Marc Gasol (48), with guys like Mike Conley (4), Jeff Green (5), Spencer Hawes (10), Rodney Stuckey (15), Wilson Chandler (23), and a few others being rotation guys at best.

[Jumbo]

My hand is raised. And most teams would not take Durant in a heartbeat.

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

Going to have to stand tall with Jumbo on this one and say your flat out wrong.

Durants PER isn't even a point higher than Odens - Oden isn't close to being the main man on his team - (Roy, Aldridge, Outlaw, and even Steve Blake + fellow Rookie Rudy Fernandez are all arguably ahead of him as scoring options) while there is no question Durant is the main man on his team.
Durant also has a full season under his belt, and his position isn't neccesarly as hard to acclimate to as playing the Center position. It is much different being a rookie on one of the best teams in the league as compared to being a second year go-to-guy on the absolute worst team in the league.

Oden is also playing over 10 minutes less a game.

Oden is still extremely young, has only played a dozen NBA games, and LEADS the NBA in defensive rebounding rate (ahead of Howard, Bosh, Chandler, Camby, and everyone else) already which is extremely impressive.

As he gains experience, he will see more time and become more productive as long as he can avoid injuries. Playing with Aldridge will be tremendous for his offensive game while the re-emergence of Przybilla should also benefit him.

It was known he was somewhat raw offensively. He's shooting an OK percentage but he attempts some pretty difficult hook shots that are un-blockable - which could make him somewhat unstoppable if he can get them to stick more consistently- and sometimes it takes a young player like that time in the NBA to realize just how good he is. Greg doesn't strike me as a player that is stirring with an ego which is probably a good thing. His confidence will only go up and up as he feels himself getting more and more comfortable.

[FireOgilvie]

First, Oden has been out with an injury for a year and then injured himself again. It's impossible to tell what he will be doing after even a year of being healthy.

Given that, Durant isn't great. He averages 22 points a game for the worst team in the league. He can't pass and can't rebound. In a few years, at best, I think he is Tracy McGrady. I know it's early, but I don't see him ever leading a team to a championship.

Some people have the exceptional gift of making everyone around them better; they can put a team on their shoulders and lead it to a championship. Think Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan, and probably LeBron James. It's a purely gut feeling, but I think Oden could have that capability. Some people don't have it. I don't think Durant, OJ Mayo, or people like Gilbert Arenas, Tracy McGrady, and Allen Iverson (especially in the last few years) have that.

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

I really think we need to see what Durant can do with some quality players around him before we can pass judgement on that- not just some other mediocre young guys and washed up veterans.

It's actually a pretty exciting thought... too early to tell on Mayo as well. Hes already got one of the sweetest strokes in the league and he seems to be extremely coachable.

[jma4life]

Yea, I really can't see how you've reached that conclusion. Even if he had been doing one tenth of what he's done, I'd still give him some benefit of the doubt given the substantial time he has missed.

That said, I agree that it is too early to pass judgement on Durant as well. And for those who say Iverson makes his teammates worse, I suppose that might be true now as Detroit and Denver didn't really get better but he did take the Sixers to a championship. I think he gets somewhat of a bad wrap around the league for this. Given how poorly the Wizards are doing right now, I think the same might be true of Arenas although I guess they did do a little better while without him last year. As far as I know though, they haven't lost anyone major between this year and their last season where Arenas was fully healthy.

[roywhite]

Just speculating, but I agree with original post by Tommy on this. IMO Oden is unlikely to be a star based on:

1. Susceptible to injury
2. Seems to lack passion for the game.

[gw67]

I don't watch much NBA but I have watched parts of three Blazers games. Assuming that he avoids the injury bug, I expect Oden to be a great player in the NBA for many years. He comes accross as a thoughtful young man and I think McMillan is bringing him along just right. Like Russell, he will make his name from defensive play, rebounding, and most importantly, from winning.

By the way, all those who thought that Steve Blake would be drafted, that he would make a roster, that he would last in the NBA for 5 years and that he would be starting for a very good team, raise your hand. I watched him play over 100 games for the Terps. I liked him as a college player but didn't think that he would be drafted.

gw67

[studdlee10]

I want Greg Oden to succeed. Seems like a good kid with a good sense of humor (his ESPN "marketing" commercial still cracks me up). However, you cannot watch him play without thinking he is an injury waiting to happen. He plods up and down the court....looks more like Bill Walton in his 30s instead of Amare Stoudemire (even post injury) or Dwight Howard. It's sad, but I just think the kid's body will continue to betray him. Remember, he will turn 21 next year and he hasn't been able to play a single season injury free. Does not bode well...,.

[JasonEvans]

If we redrafted the Class of 2007, am I crazy to suggest that maybe, given the injury struggles of Oden and Durant's one-dimension (scoring with zero D or anything else), some folks might say that Al Horford would be the #1 pick in that draft?

Other players who move up in that draft--


Jeff Green certainly goes ahead of Mike Conley
Spencer Hawes is several spots better than #10 (picks 6-9 have all been at least mild disappointments, IMO)
Thad Young appears to be a very good pick considering he went #12
Al Thornton is a stud and should have been a top 8 pick
Rudy Fernandez looks like he will be a strong player for Portland for a long time. He would go top 12 or even higher if they redrafted.


--Jason "there are others, but this list is long enough" Evans

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

If we redrafted the Class of 2007, am I crazy to suggest that maybe, given the injury struggles of Oden and Durant's one-dimension (scoring with zero D or anything else), some folks might say that Al Horford would be the #1 pick in that draft?

Other players who move up in that draft--


Jeff Green certainly goes ahead of Mike Conley
Spencer Hawes is several spots better than #10 (picks 6-9 have all been at least mild disappointments, IMO)
Thad Young appears to be a very good pick considering he went #12
Al Thornton is a stud and should have been a top 8 pick
Rudy Fernandez looks like he will be a strong player for Portland for a long time. He would go top 12 or even higher if they redrafted.


--Jason "there are others, but this list is long enough" Evans

I agree with a lot of that... except for the fact Thornton is a stud. He is widely considered a black hole who shoots a relatively poor percentage from the field. Hes one of the very few people in the NBA who scores over 15 a game who has a below average PER.

"Depending on what night you saw him, Thornton was either horrible or amazing. He had two 30-point games after the All-Star break, averaged 16 points a game in the second half of the season, and threw down several highlight-reel dunks. He also had a 10-turnover game, a 1-for-15 game, and 12 other games where he played at least 20 minutes and made fewer than a quarter of his shots; additionally, he made some of the worst goaltending violations I've ever seen, and I can't recall ever seeing him pass.

The best way to sum him up might be "out of control." Thornton certainly wasn't bashful, ranking 13th among power forward in usage rate, but he converted a low percentage and ranked in the bottom quarter of power forwards in pure point rating; if you're grading him as a perimeter player only five players had a worse assist ratio. Surprisingly, he wasn't that turnover-prone, which is amazing given the abandon with which he played. " - Hollinger


That being said, he may still have justified a top 8 pick in this class. Green has played much better this year then he did last year.

[Olympic Fan]

Count me among those with my hand in the air.

This sounds so much like the skepticism early in the 2006-07 season, when freshman Greg Oden was hurt. He was injury-prone ... he didn't play with passion ... he didn't have an offensive game.

I'm sure it was just a coincidence that he led Ohio State to the NCAA championship game.

His NBA career has been delayed a year by injury and hampered early this season by another minor injury. He's merely averaging 7.6 points and 7.4 rebounds in 21 minutes. But, funny thing, the Trail Blazers are winning ... 15-8 at this point (after a 1-3 start without Oden ... well, he did play a minute of so in the opener before he got hurt).

I agree that there should be concern over his injuries. That might derail his career. But I still like his chances of anchoring a championship team a heck of a lot more than the odds of Kevin Durant ever leading a team to a title.

I still think he's going to be a dominant NBA player (not a scorer) for a long, long time.

[BlueintheFace]

My hand is raised. And most teams would not take Durant in a heartbeat.

They would over everyone else in that draft. He is a great talent with little help around him. From year one to year two he has already grown a good deal in his offensive game... most notably his distance jumpers.

[gw67]

I would still take Oden first but Durant, IMO, is the best offensive player in college in recent years (Yes, better than Curry and Beasley). I recall the first time that I saw him play. It was his senior year in HS and his team, Montrose Christian, played Oak Hill Academy. The game was recorded and shown on TV. It was clear that these were not your typical HS teams although I was not familiar with the players. Oak Hill had Michael Beasley, Ty Lawson, Jeff Allen, Nolan Smith, Landon Milbourne and some others who are playing college ball. Montrose had Durant, Vasquez, Bowie, a couple of Japanese youngsters and some freshmen. Montrose won the game although Oak Hill had more talent. Durant simply could not be stopped from anywhere on the court. Vasquez and Bowie supported him and, I believe, that Bowie made the winning shot. I can foresee Durant leading the NBA in scoring.

gw67

[Diddy]

They would over everyone else in that draft. He is a great talent with little help around him. From year one to year two he has already grown a good deal in his offensive game... most notably his distance jumpers.

I agree that there is little talent around him. Still, he could do a much better job on D, rebounding, and passing. Maybe part of his struggles in those areas are due to the whole wasteland of talent on that team. But that could change this year, in a big way.

Blake Griffen is from near OKC. If OKC gets the first pick, KD could soon be paired with an elite level big man who is a local favorite. Add a decent PG and you have the basis for a quality team.

[Jumbo]

They would over everyone else in that draft. He is a great talent with little help around him. From year one to year two he has already grown a good deal in his offensive game... most notably his distance jumpers.

That wasn't the question. It was whether they'd take him in a heartbeat over Oden. And that's not the case.

[DBFAN]

Usually I do not agree with Bill Walton on anything, but I think he is right when he says that Oden will NOT be an offensive power, he does not have the finess of a Gasol, or Duncan, and he lacks the power of a Shaq, or Howard type players. But, Walston did say he could become a defensive presence like a Bill Russell (not sure if it is two S's or L's) If Oden lives up to that then he will be a Hall of Famer some day, but offense will not be his Strong suit. Considering that the NBA is not a defensive oriented league (thats a nice way to say it) I would have to gather that Durant would be a player that every team would take if they could. Just because he has more potential on the offensive side of things.

[phaedrus]

This was before the 2 point, 1 rebound stinker he put up the other night, but earlier this week Oden was something near top 5 in the league in both rebounds and blocks per 40 minutes. The problem he's probably even higher in fouls per 40 minutes.

[Olympic Fan]

Usually I do not agree with Bill Walton on anything, but I think he is right when he says that Oden will NOT be an offensive power, he does not have the finess of a Gasol, or Duncan, and he lacks the power of a Shaq, or Howard type players. But, Walston did say he could become a defensive presence like a Bill Russell (not sure if it is two S's or L's) If Oden lives up to that then he will be a Hall of Famer some day, but offense will not be his Strong suit. Considering that the NBA is not a defensive oriented league (thats a nice way to say it) I would have to gather that Durant would be a player that every team would take if they could. Just because he has more potential on the offensive side of things.

I think your last two sentences are contradicted by your earlier reference to Walton's opinion. Because Bill Russell is undoubtedly > Gasol, Duncan, Shaq or Howard

As you note, defense in the NBA is in short supply -- that why a defensive force is much rarer and MUCH more valuable than just another decent offensive player.